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By Joe Ferraro
With UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares upon us, it’s time to analyze each fight and determine who has “the edge?” Which fighters, on paper, hold the keys to winning their bouts and truth be told, whose fight is it “to lose?”
There are many times we see a bout, that on the surface, is obvious for one athlete to win; a superior wrestler who should dominate the skillful striker, who although great on his feet, is simply no match for his opponent on the ground. But, for some inexplicable reason, the wrestler decides to stand and trade with the striker, eventually getting knocked out in the process.
By analyzing some of the key attributes and skills that fighters must bring to the table, and comparing which one has “The Edge”, we can therefore determine who “should” emerge victorious.
But as the old adage goes – a fight is a fight, and anything can happen.
With that being said, let’s take a look at UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares:
Main Bouts (Live on Rogers Sportsnet):
Nate Marquardt (186) vs. Rousimar Palhares (186)
Striking: Nate Marquardt
Wrestling: Nate Marquardt
Submissions: Rousimar Palhares
Stamina: Nate Marquardt
Elite level experience: Nate Marquardt
Other Intangibles: Nate Marquardt
The Edge: Nate Marquardt
Final Thoughts: This is Marquardt’s fight to lose. He should avoid the ground game with Palhares at all costs. It matters not that Nate is a high level grappler and can “likely” survive on the mat with Toquinho, but the smart strategy is to keep Rousimar on his feet, where Nate has “the edge.”
Efrain Escudero (159) vs. Charles Oliveira (154)
Striking: Efrain Escudero
Wrestling: Efrain Escudero
Submissions: Charles Oliveira
Stamina: No Edge
Elite level experience: Efrain Escudero
Other Intangibles: Efrain Escudero
The Edge: Efrain Escudero
Final Thoughts: Similar to my thoughts for the main event, there is no reason Escudero should chose to engage with Oliveira on the mat. Keep him standing, and he will emerge victorious. If he goes to the ground with the Brazilian, he will be playing with fire and will likely get burned.
Jim Miller (155.5) vs. Gleison Tibau (154)
Striking: Jim Miller
Wrestling: Jim Miller
Submissions: Equal
Stamina: Jim Miller
Elite level experience: Gleison Tibau
Other Intangibles: Gleison Tibau
The Edge: Jim Miller
Final Thoughts: As good as I think Tibau is, I believe Miller is slightly better. If the American can dictate the pace and force Tibau to fight at his level, he will tire out the Brazilian and likely finish him off in the third, or cruise to a decision victory.
Ross Pearson (156) vs. Cole Miller (156)
Striking: Ross Pearson
Wrestling: Cole Miller
Submissions: Cole Miller
Stamina: Cole Miller
Elite level experience: Cole Miller
Other Intangibles: Cole Miller
The Edge: Cole Miller
Final Thoughts: On paper, this is Cole Miller’s fight to lose, but as Gray Maynard told me once: “paper doesn’t fight paper”. Ross Pearson can win this fight, and can do so quickly. Like Marquardt and Escudero above, he should simply keep this fight standing, stick and move and work for the knockout. Patience is key – if he buys his time, the knockout will come.
Preliminary Bouts (Non-Televised):
Yves Edwards (155) vs. John Gunderson (156)
Striking: Yves Edwards
Wrestling: John Gunderson
Submissions: John Gunderson
Stamina: John Gunderson
Elite level experience: Yves Edwards
Other Intangibles: Yves Edwards
The Edge: Yves Edwards
Final Thoughts: It’s American Top Team (Edwards) vs Xtreme Couture Vegas (Gunderson) on Edward’s home turf. While Yves may be in the twilight of his career, he will have the hometown advantage tonight, and the fact he is returning to the UFC after competing for the last four years outside of it, look for him to capitalize on this final opportunity with the big show.
Jared Hamman (205) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (206)
Striking: Jarred Hamman
Wrestling: Kyle Kingsbury
Submissions: Kyle Kingsbury
Stamina: Kyle Kingsbury
Elite level experience: Similar
Other Intangibles: Kyle Kingsbury
The Edge: Kyle Kingsbury
Tomasz Drwal (185.5) vs. Dave Branch (186)
Striking: Tomasz Drwal
Wrestling: Dave Branch
Submissions: Dave Branch
Stamina: Dave Branch
Elite level experience: Tomasz Drwal
Other Intangibles: Dave Branch
The Edge: Dave Branch
Final Thoughts: This bout can go either way, and while “The Edge” may go to Branch, I’m leaning towards Drwal in this one.
Rich Attonito (185) vs. Rafael Natal (186)
Striking: Rich Attonito
Wrestling: Rich Attonito
Submissions: Rafael Natal
Stamina: Rich Attonito
Elite level experience: Negligible
Other Intangibles: Rich Attonito
The Edge: Rich Attonito
Final Thoughts: American Top Team’s Rich Attonito should avoid hitting the mat with Renzo Gracie Black Belt and Instructor, Rafeal Natal. Keep him standing, be patient and win the fight. Natal is dangerous once he gets a hold of fighter’s limbs, ala Palhares, so it’s best if Attonito stands and bangs.
David Mitchell (170.5) vs. Anthony “T.J.” Waldburger (171)
Striking: Anthony Waldburger
Wrestling: David Mitchell
Submissions: David Mitchell
Stamina: Anthony Waldburger
Elite level experience: Anthony Waldburger
Other Intangibles: David Mitchell
The Edge: David Mitchell
Final Thoughts: Waldburger, a purple belt in BJJ, has not competed in over a year, and will be facing a stern test in Mitchell, who is a wrecking machine. This one may be over quick.
Brian Foster (170.5) vs. Forrest Petz (170)
Striking: Forest Petz
Wrestling: Brian Foster
Submissions: Negligible
Stamina: Forrest Petz
Elite level experience: Forrest Petz
Other Intangibles: Forrest Petz
The Edge: Forrest Petz
Final Thoughts: This will be an explosive affair, and quietly, can secure “Fight of the night” honours.
Note: Other intangibles include “quality of training partners”, “in prime of career”, “facing a fighter in twilight of career”, “opponent injured recently”, “facing a fighter who is making their octagon debut”, “facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice”, etc.
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