By Joe Ferraro
As UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin gets set to go off at the MGM Grand Garden and Arena on Saturday night, one of the stories that keeps raising eyebrows is how the heavy favourite, Brock Lesnar, is no longer the guaranteed pick to win.The odds on undefeated challenger Shane Carwin have been balancing out the wagering scales to the point where Lesnar has the slightest of margins; and I believe the odds makers still have their assessment of this bout, incorrect.
Let’s examine why, as well as look at the rest of the UFC 116 card:
Main Card
Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin
On March 07th, 2009, I explained to any one that would listen that i firmly believed Shane Carwin would eventually mature into a top heavyweight, and challenge for the title, that was held by a certain Brock Lesnar, and that I firmly believed that he would beat him. This was the night Carwin knocked out Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96, and I have yet to change my opinion. I believe Carwin is a much more well rounded mixed martial artist, and come Saturday night, I believe he will (supposedly) shock the world, and have his hand raised in victory.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben
This is “Sexyama’s” fight to lose. If he decides to waste his time, standing and banging with Leben, he runs the risk of actually breaking his hand/wrist on the middleweight’s granite jaw. He also runs the risk of getting KO’d by Chris’ left hand. Technically speaking, I think Akiyama has the edge in all areas, but I believe his best chance at winning, is to take Leben down, and ground and pound him into a TKO or submission victory.
Matt Brown vs. Chris Lytle
This is my early pick for “Fight Of The Night”. Neither one of these two welterweights have shown a consistent history of backing up. For the majority of the time, they move forward and do so launching powerful combinations. I will not be surprised if Brown squeaks out a split decision, but I look for Lytle to make Brown’s lights, go out, in the third round.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
In a rematch from their light heavyweight battle at UFC 110, look for Bonnar and Sosyznski to continue what they did not finish in Sydney, Australia. While Krzysztof did say he would like to keep this fight standing, I see him working for a takedown and trying to finish off Bonnar with his stellar kimura. If he cannot, then the fight goes the distance with “The Polish Experiment” earning a unanimous judges decision.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropoulos
If this fight doesn’t hit the mat within the first minute, most of the BJJ world may go into shock. It’s difficult to pick who has the edge in this fight, but I’m giving it to the more experienced Pellegrino. Look for him to punish Sotiropoulos, but as one of my Sportsnet colleagues continues to tell me, “don’t be surprised if George does to The Batman, what he did to Joe Daddy” - which is to surprise everyone by dominating Pellegrino for three straight rounds.
Preliminary Card (airing on Rogers Sportsnet)
Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer
It’s the athlete in Schaub vs the bruiser in Tuchscherer. “The Hybrid”, is a teammate of Carwin’s, will have the speed advantage over Tuchscherer, who is one of Lesnar’s main training partners. Speed generally prevails over power, but if Schaub’s footwork fails him, he may be asleep before he knows what hit him. I’m picking Brendan, but am going with a submission in this one.
Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero
“The Silverback”, Seth Petruzelli is back, after being away from the octagon for over three years. Hey may be also be known as “The Kimbo Killer”, but come Saturday night, he better be ready for a “Silverback Finisher”, as his opponent has finished nine of his ten victories by either submission or knockout. If he doesn’t suffer from octagon jitters, or the rookie jinx, I’m going with Romero with the upset in this one.
Rest of Undercard
Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic
Goran Reljic has only fought two times, in nearly three years. His last bout, a unanimous decision loss to CB Dollaway at UFC 110, was the first in nearly two years. Yet, coming into this bout here, he is the favourite over Kendall Grove, who took Riccardo Almeida the distance, submitted Jake Rosholt in round one, and looked pretty good vs Mark Munoz (until he got rocked by the Cali native). It may be strange math, but the answer for me in this fight seems obvious: I’m taking “Da Spyder”.
Dave Branch vs. Gerald Harris
Branch is an undefeated middleweight who holds a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie. He has competed six times, winning three by KO, and three by submission. Harris on the other hand, has nearly three times the amount of fights, and is on a nine fight winning streak. Branch will likely fall victim to not only the octagon jitters, but a TKO victory by Gerald Harris.
Forrest Petz vs. Daniel Roberts
This is the toughest fight on this card to breakdown. Petz is a cagey veteran while Roberts is a young buck, who simply made a grappler’s mistake in his UFC debut, a loss to John Howard. I believe he has learned his lesson, and will return to the win column with a submission victory over Petz.
Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola
Madsen, another training partner of Lesnar’s, has the cardio to go the distance in the heavyweight division, a rarity of sorts. He went three rounds with Mostapha Al-Turk and did the same with Justin Wren. Vemola on the other hand, is akin to Shane Carwin - he can’t seem to get out of the first round cause he keeps finishing his opponents off quickly. If Madsen survives round one, he should win. If he does not, Vemola will be another “new” heavyweight MMA fans will be talking about; and on this card, look for the UFC to show him off on the pay per view, so the world can see they have another heavyweight prospect they are building.
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