By Joe Ferraro
With all five of the UFC Champions appearing to be unbeatable in the near future, the UFC finds itself in a difficult predicament as to who deserves a title within their respective division.
BJ Penn, Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Brock Lesnar are the Kings of their divisions, but finding suitable challenges for them is never an easy task.
Lightweight Division
Next in line for BJ Penn is “The Nightmare” Diego Sanchez, scheduled for UFC 107, December 12th in Memphis, Tennessee. Should “The Prodigy” emerge victorious, who would be next in line for a crack at the Hawaiian?
If you follow the UFC’s current model within the welterweight and middleweight division, anyone who has already had a crack at championship glory, and failed, will likely not be given another chance, anytime soon. That bodes terribly for the likes of Kenny Florian, Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk. If the UFC is to look within it’s own roster, it would mean Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, Tyson Griffin, Nate Diaz and Clay Guida are in the running. At one time or another, some these lightweights have already fought one another, so now it’s a matter of some serious matchmaking.
If the UFC could pluck from outside of it’s roster, the names are incredible: Shinya Aoki, Eddie Alvarez, Tatsuya Kawajiri and Joachim Hansen. Aoki and Hansen are set for a lightweight title fight at Dream 11 on October 06th, but in analyzing all these outsiders, Alvarez, Hansen and Kawajiri would make for some incredible match-ups for Penn.
I have a myriad of suggested match-ups that I would like to see, but I get the feeling Tyson Griffin will be the next one to get the title shot.
Welterweight Division
With Georges St-Pierre having just about cleaned out the 170 lbs class, who’s next for the champ, who is rumored to be returning in early 2010. For my money, Jon Fitch is the most deserving of a crack at the title, but the UFC will not be giving him a second chance, anytime soon. The same can be said for Thiago Alves and Matt Hughes.
With that being said, the crème of the crop has to rise from the likes of Mike Swick, Paul Daley, Josh Koscheck or Carlos Condit. Martin Kampmann and Dan Hardy are still in the picture, but both fighters have a long road to travel before they ever get to see GSP within the Octagon fence.
The Outsiders – Jake Shields is the obvious top pick and one could make a serious case that he can come in and immediately deserve a shot at GSP, but I’m keeping my eyes glued on Marius Zaromskis, the recent winner of Dream’s Welterweight Grand Prix.
If I had to make a pick, next in line for the chance to face GSP would likely be Koscheck in what will be an epic rematch, but I still believe Fitch deserves the real crack at St-Pierre.
Middleweight Division
This class is by far the UFC’s most difficult to figure out. Champion Anderson Silva cleaned out the division awhile ago, and the UFC (thankfully) was forced to recruit outside talent to challenge “The Spider”. It was a huge gamble in matching Vitor Belfort vs Rich Franklin and it paid off, as the Brazilian emerged victorious and is rumored to have a date with his fellow countryman at UFC 108, scheduled for January 02, 2010, in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The UFC has avoided giving Dan Henderson and Nate Marquardt a crack at the title, after both fighters lost convincingly to Silva during their respective bouts. To their credit, both middleweights have defeated everyone that the UFC has put before them, in hopes they get another shot at Anderson, but it now appears as if they must first fight one another ( rumored for UFC 108 ), with the victor likely fighting the winner of Silva – Belfort.
If Silva should still emerge victorious after these next two bouts, I do not see anyone on the horizon that can challenge him. While Patrick Cote is set to return, he is simply going to be added to a long list of challengers that must fight their way up the 185 lbs ladder. This list includes Michael Bisping, Denis Kang, Demian Maia, Yushin Okami and Yoshiro Akiyama. Unless one of these fighters goes undefeated ( and in spectacular fashion ) over the next twelve months, I cannot see anyone that will be able to seriously motivate the champ in the Octagon.
As for who is going to emerge as “the one”? It’s tough to say, as the outsiders only include Robbie Lawler and Jorge Santiago, so if I was a betting man, I’d keep my money in my pocket for now. I will only pull out the virtual coin if Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Gegard Mousasi decides to return to middleweight and challenge Silva, but alas, the odds of that happening are slim, so my money is still in my pocket.
If I had no choice but to make a decision – I’ll go with Nate Marquardt.
Light Heavyweight Division
It’s only been four months since the beginning of “The Machida Era”, but Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida is also being touted as unbeatable. His undefeated MMA record speaks for itself and with mind boggling statistics that show him as the “least hit” fighter in UFC history, one can argue that the champ is going to be around for quite some time.
His next bout is a tough one. He is slated to face fellow Brazilian Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 104, October 24th in Los Angeles, but that is the least of his problems. The 205 lbs division is the UFC’s deepest talent pool, so should Machida have his hands raised at UFC 104, there is still a plethora of talent that can be matched up against him, but who will emerge from the current mess.
Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva are rumored to go at it at the aforementioned UFC 108. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is doing a movie (and in my opinion, not retired but simply on a leave of absence). Forrest Griffin and Keith Jardine are coming off losses and should fight each other ASAP.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira has just been signed by the organization and will be fighting Luiz Cane, but the winner is still a long ways away. Tito Ortiz – he’s set to take on Mark Coleman and will likely need one more fight before he gets a chance to fight for the title. Perhaps if Ortiz gets passed Coleman, a rematch with Couture could be on the horizon (should Randy take out Brandon Vera at UFC 107).
The one fighter who I am keeping my eye on is Jon “Bones” Jones – he is the future of the division and has “champ” written all over him, but he’s still years away from getting his chance to wear gold.
The other fighter in this division that give Dana White and the UFC fits is Anderson Silva. After his dismantling of Forrest Griffin at UFC 101 and his complete refusal to fight his good friend Lyoto Machida, what can the UFC possibly do to convince these two to put their friendship aside and take care of business in the octagon. Something tells me it will be a lot of dollar signs.
As for light heavyweight outsiders – once again, the only guy I would like to see come in and wreck havoc in the division is “The Dream Catcher”, Gegard Mousasi. There is no doubt in my mind that he can give anyone of these guys the fight of a lifetime. He is on a thirteen fight win streak, and has only loss two of his twenty nine professional bouts.
So who do I believe will be next in line for Machida? I’ll go with, believe it or not, Tito Ortiz ( I can hear the boos already ).
Heavyweight Division
Brock Lesnar, the current UFC champ is touted as being unbeatable, but I still believe Fedor Emelianenko would give the big man a true challenge. One could argue back and forth regarding Fedor’s last few opponents, but talent is talent, and I believe “The Last Emperor” is still the best in the division.
Seeing as this fight will likely never take place in this lifetime, Lesnar will now have to concentrate on Shane Carwin. This main event for UFC 106 is a dandy, and in my opinion, Carwin is the one fighter who has the best chance to defeated Lesnar in the division.
Take nothing away from the rest of the fighters in the division, but no one seems to stick out for me. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is at the top of the list, but may be on the downside of his career. Frank Mir would love a rubber match with Lesnar, but will likely have to not only defeat Cheick Kongo at UFC 107, but perhaps Nogueira again before he gets another opportunity.
Cain Velasquez is an up and comer, but will have his hands full against “Big” Ben Rothwell at UFC 104 and still a fight or two away. Junior Dos Santos and Gabriel Gonzaga would make for a great contender bout, while the returning Paul Beuntello will be taking on rising star Todd Duffee to determine where both of these fighters belong within the title picture.
The best outsiders include Josh Barnett, Allistair Overeem and Brett Rogers. Barnett and Overeem will likely never fight for the UFC while Rogers is a long shot. That is, unless he defeats Fedor in November. If that happens, I wouldn’t be surprised if the UFC finagles it’s way with the current Strikeforce heavyweight.
As for who do I believe is next for Lesnar – believe it or not, I’ll go with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, with my long shot being Gabriel Gonzaga.
What are your thoughts? How do you see all of these divisions breaking down?
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