While much has been made about this Saturday’s UFC main event not being the ‘SUPER FIGHT’ that the vast majority of other Pay Per Views main events have been, I am definetly looking forward to this bout (as well as the rest of the fights on this card).
The main event at UFC 78: Validation will (for the first time) pit two different winners of the UFC’s Ultimate Fighter Reality Series against each other. Season Two winner Rashad Evans (15-0-1) will battle Season Three winner Michael ‘The Count’ Bisping (15-0), in a battle of light heavyweights who are looking to climb the ladder in hopes of getting a title shot in 2008.
On paper, this fight appears to be a battle of two well rounded fighters with similar records who both have a chance at winning via knockout, submission or by decision. But upon further review, I do not necessarily see it this way. This bout has Rashad Evans’ hand raised in victory written all over it.
While ‘The Count’ may be the current UFC posterchild in the United Kingdom, the Lancashire, England native does not match up very well his adversary. Evans, a Michigan State University grad (who had quite the extensive collegiate wresting career) has defeated higher caliber opponents in his carrer and cannot be taken down to the ground. This wrestling experience alone proves to me that Bisping will have next to no chance vs Evans and will be forced to trade bombs.
Evans will control this bout from beginning to end. He will force Bisping to stand and trade and based on my own analytical breakdown or each fighters stand up arsenal, this could be a very short night for ‘The Count’. Evans’ hands, elbows, knees and feet are much faster, crisper and far more precise. We could see another impressive knockout by the American, perhaps a mirror image finish to what he did against Sean Salmon.
Even if this fight should end up on the mat, Evans is a much better wrestler with a submission game that looks for better than Bisping’s. While he has only won one (1) fight via submission, I personally know a few UFC fighters who have trained with Evans and who have told me they are surprised he doesn’t use this part of his game more often.
I see Evans winning this bout via knockout, but based on his ground and pound skills, he can also punch his way to a TKO victory. Should this fight end up in with the judges making the final call, I still see Evans out working Bisping in every single round.
While I am already at four (4) different ways Rashad Evans can win this bout, there is something in the back of my mind that is telling me to stop. That little something is the ‘Curse of 2007′; it is the curse felt by Georges St.Pierre, Chuck Liddell (twice) and many other fighters who were so heavily favoured that they all forgot about one thing.
This is Mixed Martial Arts, and with four ounce gloves, anything can happen. One punch can turn the fight in a heartbeat. One wrong move and it can be ‘check mate’ for a fighter plying his trade in the sport being called ‘human chess’.
It goes without saying: ‘anything can happen’ especially in ’the year of the upset’ but I personally cannot see Bisping doing anything remotely damaging to Evans. ‘Styles make fights’ and Rashad Evan’s will be in fine form come Saturday night, keeping his undefeated record in tact, while sending Michael Bisping ‘down for the count’ and yes, down to the middleweight division.
Ah yes, the UFC’s middleweight division…that’s another topic for another day.
