The situation isn’t as bleak as some suggest.  Here are the facts.  The Flames are 3 points behind the 8th place Red Wings in the West and 5 pts behind 7th place Nashville. Brent Sutter’s crew has 13 games remaining as do the Wing while the Predators have 12 left.

   True, Detroit and Nashville have better finishing schedules on paper, than the Flames but there is still plenty to play out.  A win Wednesday in Colorado over the Avs and Calgary would one point behind Detroit, again.

  Clearly, the Flames need to be more productive offensively and some PPG would help, but defensively Sutter has his squad very close to having the best Goals Against Average in the league.  

  The Flames have the NHL’s 3rd best GAA at 2.57.  Of the Top 10 defensive teams in the NHL, the Flames are the only team currently not in a playoff postion. Sutter’s skaters have a shot at having the best GAA by season’s end. Phoenix and New Jersey, the co-leaders have a 2.55 mark.

   Over the last 40-plus years, the team with best GAA record has never missed the playoffs.

  Another historic not that I was reminded of Tuesday by respondant/listener Sean Elekes.

   The last time everybody got wild about the Flames was the ‘03-04 campaign when they went to the Stanley Cup finals.  After 69 games that season, the Flames hads 77 points. Just as they do now.  That team finished with an 8-4-1 record. A similar finish now would easily garner a post-season spot.

  It marked the 15th time in 69 games the score has been 2-1.  The Flames most popular score this season. Unfortunately, it was the Detroit Red Wings with the 2 as Tomas Holmstrom tipped a Johan Franzen shot past Miikka Kiprusoff with 1:19 left in the 3rd period. Franzen’s shot was going wide of the net.

  Coach Brent Sutter stated right from the out3rd period when Brian Rafalski was banished to 4 minutes for high sticking.  The Flames managed just 2 shots in the 4 minutes. The Flames have failed to score on their last set in September that his club had to win the 2-1 games.  Out of the 15, they have won 7, lost 7 in regulation and 1 in extra time.

  In games with such a slim margin for error, special team are frequently the difference. It was in this one. The Red Wings got their tying goal on a power play in the final minute of the 2nd period just after Curtis Glencross failed to score on a penalty shot. The Flames gained a 1-0 edge at 1:47 of the first with Craig Conroy’s 3rd tally of the season.

  The Flame PP had a great chance to break the 1-1 tie early in the 3rd when Brian Rafalski was handed a double minor for high sticking.  The Flames managed only 2 shots in the 4 minutes. The PP has now failed in its last 14 attempts.

  Falling 3 points behind the Wings for 8th place in the Western Conf., the Flames now need help over the final 13 games to make it 6-straight seasons in the post season.

  The  Red Wings have a slightly better finish schedule.  Detroit plays 7 of their 13 matches at home.  The Flames play 8 of 13 away from the Saddledome, which may be good considering they have a better record on the road.

  The Flames get an advantage in that they just one set of back-to-back games left.  The Wings have 3 with the 2nd on the road each time.  Detroit plays supposedly less quality opponents.  The Wings play 7 non-playoff teams including Columbus 3 times and Edmonton twice.  As well the Wings face 3 first place clubs.  The Flames have 4 games remaining against non-playoff squads and have 5 left against #1 teams.

  The Flames look to start the turn around in Colorado on Wednesday against an Avalanche team that has beaten them all 4 times this season by identical 3-2 scores.  The Flames second favorite final score.

Then for 40 minutes the Flames played their game and gave the Canucks some reason to fear them should the clubs clash in a playoff series next month.

First, the Flames must get into post-season play. The Sunday 3-1 defeat left them in 9th place one point behind 8th place Detroit, who they host on Monday.

Brent Sutter’s skaters need to be ready from the start against the Red Wings.

Clearly that wasn’t the case Sunday as the Canucks peppered Miikka Kiprusoff with 20 shots, scoring on 3 of them.

The Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik, both scored as did Ryan Kesler. They could have more but for Kiprusoff’s great work.

He got the remainder of the evening off as Vesa Toskala took over.

The Flames then settled into their game allowing only 8 shots over 40 minutes — none in the 3rd period.
The Flames took 27 shot over the last 2 periods but the only goal was scored by Robyn Regehr midway in the 3rd against Roberto Luongo.

While Monday may not be “must win” for the Flames its the next thing to it. A loss would drop then 3 points behind the Wings. A win and they’d be one ahead.

  The club extended it winning streak to 4 games with some great shot blocking.  Led by defensemen Marc Giorando and Cory Sarich with 6 and 5 blocks respectively, the Flames skaters got in front of 30 Senators shots.  The 32 that got through, Miikka Kiprusoff handled flawlessly for his 4th shutout of the season.

  Plus, two defensive forwards — Jamal Mayers and Christopher Higgins — scored the goals.

  In winning their 3 previous games, the #1 line of Iginla-Stajan-Bourque supplied half the goals.  In this one, they got none, but didn’t to.

   Standingwise, the Flames started the night in 8th place in the Western Conference.  Dropped to 9th by the end of the first period when Detroit won at home over Minnesota. By the end of the evening, the Flames were in 7th spot with Nashville after the Predators lost in San Jose.

   The Flames get Friday and Saturday before facing 4 keys games in 6 days starting Sunday in Vancouver.  Then home on Monday vs Detroit before going to Colorado for a Wednesday date and then back home to face the Sharks next Friday.

  Some big challenges as the Flames seek to keep their winning ways going.

   Typically, I don’t get wrapped up too much in trying to assess point totals because too many intangibles need t be factored.  Especially with the number of teams chasing down the final playoff spots in the conference.

   Flame GM Darryl Sutter has always assessed that if a teams get 12 points every 10 games, that’s enough to get into the playoffs. That’s 96 points with 2 games left out of the 82-game schedule.

   The theory has proved accurate every year since the league resumed in 2005-06. In fact its been a little high every year except one.  That was the ‘06-07 when the Flames finished 8th in the West with 96pt.  Last season and ‘07-08 the 8th place team had 91pt.  When in ‘05-06 it was 95.

   Right now the Flames have 73 points through 66 games. The Flames can’t get to their GM’s target by the end of 70 games on March 17, but by winning all 4 starting Thursday at home vs Ottawa, they’d have 81pt — 3 off the pace.

   However, over the past 4 seasons, the average point total is 93 points.  So the Flames are pretty close to where they need to be for the average.

   However, they can afford very few slip-ups over the final 16.

   In their first 10 games since GM Sutter made his first 2 trades and brought up Mikael Backlund from Abbotsford, they’ve compiled a 6-3-1 record.  That’s 13pts — one more the the 12pt standard.   The second set of 10 would be a better guage. 

The accompaning story by Rand Sportak said at age 33 Jarome Iginla couldn’t carry the Flames like he used to.

Then the captain had to play road games at Minnesota and Detroit against teams he had goal scoring slumps against.

Iginla laid it all to rest as the Flames roared back into a playoff spot winning 5-2 at Minnesota and 4-2 in Detroit on Tuesday.

Meshing quickly with centre Matt Stajan and LW Rene Bourque, Iginla had a goal and an assist against the Red Wings, ending a 19-game goal famine vs the Motor City crew. .
Sunday he had 3 goals and a helper vs the Wild, ending a 10-game drought against Minny.

Against the Wings after the scoring the goal to tie the game, Iginla came back to fire the shot 1:31 later that went off Bourque for the winner.
Daymond Langkow scored the game’s first goal and Christopher Higgins the last into an empty net.

The 3-game win streak, the clubs longest since Jan. 5, moves the Flames ahead of the Wings by one point for the last playoff location.

The key now is keeping it going. The Flames host Ottawa on Thursday. Then to Vancouver Sunday.

   The Olympic hockey point system awards 3 points for winning a game in regulation-time. Two points for winning in OT or a shootout with the losing team in extra time getting one point.

   Here’s a comparison of how the standings would look now  compared to what it would be under the 3-2-1 plan, which will be discussed over the next 3 days at the NHL’s general manager’s meetings. It the Western Conference only.

PRESENTLY                               UNDER 3-2-1 FORMAT

San Jose  93                                  San Jose  128

Chicago  91                                    Chicago  121

Vancouver  80                              Vancouver  113

Phoenix  83                                   Phoenix  110

Los Angeles  80                            Colorado  110

Colorado  80                                 Los Angeles  108

Nashville  75                                 Nashville  102

Detroit  72                                     FLAMES  97

FLAMES  71                                  Detroit  96

St. Louis  69                                  St. Louis  91

Dallas  68                                      Anaheim  91

Minnesota  67                              Dallas  90

Anaheim  67                                Minnesota 90

  Perhaps the most interesting change is in the race for the West Pennant.  Heading into Sunday, San Jose leads Chicago by 2 points.  With the 3-2-1 scheme, the Sharks would have a 7-point advantage.

  Starting Sunday afternoon here in St. Paul, Mn, the Flames play 11 of their remaining 18 games on the road.  Three of the away games out of 4 will be played this week.

  After the Sunday matchup, the Flames are in Detroit for a key battle for the final playoff spot.  The Red Wings, who play Sunday vs Chicago, are one point ahead of the Flames.  Making Tuesday, essentailly a must win.

   Brent Sutter’s skaters return home on Thursday to face Ottawa before moving on to Vancouver  on Saturday for what will be the Canucks first game back home after ending their NHL record 14-game road trip.  Despite having played their last 11 matches on the road, the Canucks continue to lead the NW Division.  They have a 2-point edge on Colorado and are 9 points better than the Flames.

   Away from the Saddledome, the Flames have a 15-9-6 record.  At home, its a 16-15-3 slate after winning 5-3 over New Jersey on Friday.

   That was just the second time in 38 games, the Flames scored more than 4 goals in a game after doing it 6 times in the first 23 games of the season.

   Sunday the Flames look to end a 4-game losing streak against the Wild extending back to the end of last season.

   After two seasons where he skippered the Devils to 106pt last season and 99pt in ‘08-09, Sutter finally gets to coach again his former team.

   …And he’s in no mood to show his gratitude to Lou Lamoriello for letting him out of the final year of his contract.

   Sutter’s Flames needs points as they set to meet the #3 team in the East on Friday night.

   With one win in 5 games, the Flames were 9th in the West in what is becoming an increasingly crowded scramble for the final playoff spots.

    The Flames are one point behind Detroit for 8th place.  While its unwise to look behind, the fact is St. Louis has tied the Flames with 69pt.  Dallas is one point behind and Anaheim just 2 in arrears and Minnesota is 3pt back. That’s 4pt separating 6 teams with just one playoff spot presently available.  Nashville, which plays in Detroit tonight, is in 7th place with 5 more points that the Red Wings

    Having been shutout 4 times since Jan. 15 — all of them at home — Sutter has made it clear his troops must work hard in order to put the puck in the net.  It may not be easy tonight since they’ll face the NHL’s all-time goalie leader in wins, shutouts and games played, Martin Brodeur.

   Brodeur won his first game back with the Devils on Wednesday since relinguishing the Team Canada #1 goalie position to Roberto Luongo at the Olympics last week.

   Flames hit the road for 2 after their date with the Devils. 

   I didn’t expect 31 trades at the NHL deadline.  Didn’t expect the Flames and Edmonton Oilers to make a trade for the first time ever.  Didn’t expect such a flat performance from the Flames in the 4-0 loss to Minnesota.

   A mere look at the standings on the wall in the Flame dressing room should have been motivation enough considering the team was in 9th place and one point out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.

   They ended the night still in 9th and still one point behind Detroit but the race behind team got a little closer.  The Wild, for instance, are now 3 points behind the Flames, who now play 6 of 10 on the road.

   Why Brent Sutter’s skaters lacks energy and commitment was difficult to figure.  Perhaps it had something to do with the style the Wild played where they went into a rope-a-dope style after taking a 1-0 lead with 1:04 left in the 1st period.

   It was a boring style with plenty of icing the puck, but the Flames feel into the trap. It was made worse by the fact the Wild scored just about every time they were able to escape out of their own zone. That was especially evident when the Wild scored twice just beyond the midway point of the 2nd period in less than 4 minutes.

   Hopefully, it was just a one night thing a brief post-Olympic break hangover.

   Friday we’ll find out when Sutter’s former team, the NJ Devils, are in the Saddledome.