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For the first time since winning the UFC Lightweight Championship at UFC 84, “The Prodigy” BJ Penn will defend his title on Saturday against Kenny Florian at UFC 101. While BJ usually gets thrown around in the “best pound for pound” discussions, I have to tell you…I’ve got a real good feeling about Florian heading into Saturday’s PPV in Philly.
Why? Well, a number of reasons I guess. First off, even though he is the “underdog”, lets remember just how good Ken-Flo really is. He hasn’t lost a fight in almost 3 YEARS, going all the way back to his very close 5 round decision loss to Sean Sherk for the Lightweight belt. That was back in October of 2006! Since then, Florian (13-3) has reeled off 6 straight wins including impressive victories over Roger Huerta, Joe Lauzon and Din Thomas. Those wins were fairly one sided in favor of Florian, but it was his last fight that really cemented him as one of the scariest in the world.
That last fight came at UFC 91 when it took him just over 4 minutes to completely dismantle Joe Stevenson. The ease of that win still blows my mind. He was able to mount Joe with no trouble at all, and eventually transitioned into a well executed rear naked choke to secure the submission victory. Remember, Stevenson is pretty formidable in his own way. What scares me about Kenny is that he always seems to be able to up his game. The automatic things you always think of with Kenny: great cardio (former Div 1 soccer player at Boston College), excellent grappler (BJJ black belt), and devestating elbows (Joe Rogan calls them razor sharp). But over his last 6 fights, he always has shown an ability to show marked improvement…which is scary. His standup has turned world class with great kick-boxing skills and a scary clinch. He is a solid wrestler and can block the takedown. And his ground and pound has turned into one of best in the world.
But remember, Joe Stevenson and Joe Lauzon are not quite in the same class as BJ Penn. This guy is the current champion for a reason. He destroyed Sean Sherk at 84 (I saw it live and in person!) and his only loss in the last 2 years came to Georges St. Pierre…the best in the world. So why else do I think Florian has the edge? Well, to me…and I can’t speak for BJ, obviously…but it seems like there might be a bit of non-chalance from the Champ here. He was so focused on avenging being “cheated” against GSP for so long, you wonder how much that “sleight” still weighs on his mind. He wants to get a rematch with Georges, he wants to hold 2 belts, he wants to be known as the best ever…I think there is a real chance he underestimates just how good Florian is here. You come in with that attitude, and Florian will rip you apart. I think there’s a real chance of that happening.
Now, if he’s 100% focused (which is always a question), this shapes up to be an incredible fight. Even if Penn is totally locked in and prepared as much as humanly possible, Florian can still beat him. Lets go over what we know about BJ. One of the best BJJ guys on the planet…that’s not a worry, and a grappling match between the 2 could be a hardcore fans dream. An ever evolving standup game, which includes one of the fastest jabs in MMA. And he’s got some fairly solid takedown skills on top of it all. The big question with BJ is, and this goes back to the previous paragraph, his cardio. Is he conditioned enough to go a potential 5 rounds with a well conditioned opponent? He didn’t have the gas against GSP. That worries me, and that’s why I think Florian has the edge.
Lets hope Penn is ramped up and ready to go, that he hasn’t gone on any jaunts during his training camp. A focused and locked in BJ Penn is one of the funnest fighters to watch, and Kenny Florian always puts forth exciting fights. I just think anyone expecting a walk or an easy win for BJ is kidding themselves. Kenny Florian is the real deal, and I think he proves just how legit he is on Saturday.
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I gotta agree with your assessment of Kenny… I was watching the preview show and Kenny looks dialed in. Having said that, with BJ Penn bringing in that old strength/conditioning coach (I can’t remember his name), BJ may have an opportunity to finally shed the rep of always being underprepared. The training looked intense and when BJ jumped out of 3′ of water onto the edge of the pool (with no hand assistance), I have to admit I was impressed. Maybe I am easily impressed, tho. But BJ has a look in his eye that would make any man pause. And after Kenny called BJ out and said “it’s time to kill the legend!”, I don’t think there is any chance BJ will underestimate Kenny. I think it’s too close to call, but it is going to be a great fight and I can’t wait! And I am picking BJ in a decision…
PS: Tim, don’t get me wrong. I think that BJ Penn is the favorite in this fight for a reason. He’s an incredible fighter. I do worry about the conditioning, but I’ve also seen the countdown shows, and I agree, it looks like that may not be as much of a factor.
- TIM O'NEILNot much from me on this one Pat, just a prediction.
BJ Penn is the best first round fighter that MMA has ever seen, either this fight ends with a Penn victory in round 1/early round 2, or Florian wins it.
PS: I guess we were a little off on that prediction…damn Florian making us look stupid.
- Jordan PWell I guess we got our answers on Florian and Griffin. Kind of unfortunate that neither fight was really that competitive. The big question now is what’s next for BJ Penn and Anderson Silva. Who us Dana White going to throw at these guys? Well, we kind of know that Silva will be defending against Dan Henderson, but will the outcome be any different from last time? What about a 205 lb superfight between Silva and Mirko Cro Cop if he drops to light-heavyweight?
PS: Well we know that Diego Sanchez gets the next shot at BJ Penn, and I think that’ll be an exciting fight, but I don’t see it being that much of a challenge for BJ. As for Silva, I think he NEEDS to stay at 205, that’s where he’s going to have the most competition. Cro Cop Silva would be an UNREAL fight.
- BlaineI don’t understand why you are saying the fights were dissapointing… Forrest was clearly scared of the Silva Aura and it showed. He was surgically disected on Sat night, and I loved every minute of it. BJ Penn is the top lightweight in the world, and he showed it. Kendall fight was weak, I agree. First few fights were slow, but I think the two main events made up for it. Later GO STAMPS GO
PS: I just thought the POTENTIAL was there for 2 “for the ages” fights on the main event. You’re bang on, Silva surgically dissected Forrest, which was disappointing. I was hoping Forrest would push Silva and it would result in a great war between the 2. And I thought Florian would have more dimensions in his game and force BJ to show his all round talent, and again, give us a really good fight. But that’s just me…Amir’s fight was 32 seconds, the Kendall fight was lackluster too. I’ll say this much…UFC 102 has me excited once again, so I’m not too disappointed.
- Chris Skerry