So we’ve previewed the undercard, we’ve found out how some other athletes think this fight is going to go, and now we break it down.  This Saturday at UFC 94, Welterweight Champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre takes on Lightweight Champion “The Prodigy” BJ Penn in an incredible, and possibly history making bout.

For Penn, a win would give him belts in 2 weight classes, which has never been done in the UFC.  He also plans on defending both belts, which means potential fights at 155 and 170 pounds.  For St. Pierre, it might just set us up for that other rumoured superfight…GSP and Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva.

Lets start with Penn, who starts 13-4-1 in his MMA career.  He could be the most naturally gifted fighter in the history of the sport, and for so long he coasted by on pure talent alone.  But, since a 2005 loss to St. Pierre, followed by a 2006 loss to Matt Hughes, things haven’t been the same for BJ…in a good way.  He has immersed himself in training, doing 3 sessions a day, and has made sure a lack of cardio would never be a problem again.  It’s paid off, with 3 straight wins en route to the Lightweight strap…first Jens Pulver, then Joe Stevenson, and then finally a complete dismantling of Sean Sherk last May.

For BJ, the improvement has been incredible…remember, this is a guy who had wins over Hughes, Matt Serra and Din Thomas BEFORE totally committing himself to training.  But the way he has pushed the pace in his last 3 fights has opened many eyes.  Against the fitness freak Sherk, Penn had the cardio edge and looked fresh before the 4th round (which never started; Sherk couldn’t continue).  His Brazilin Jiu-Jitsu is unquestioned…he’s the first non-Brazilian world champ. 

But it’s his standup that has gotten so much better, and it was already so great.  He picked Sherk apart with an almost invisble jab, he can throw great hooks, and has the capability to bust off a kick or knee out of nowhere.  He also has shown a great deal of improvement in keeping fights standing…Sherk couldn’t take him down, Stevenson couldn’t take him down.  And remember, I use the word “improvement”, but this guy was already elite and world class.

And then there’s St. Pierre (17-2), considered by many to be the best athlete in the sport.  And Just like Penn, GSP also points to a turning point that got him to the seemingly invincible force he is now.  After losing to Matt Hughes in 2004, Georges was on a tear…6 straight wins inside The Octagon, including a second win over Hughes which gave St. Pierre the Weltweight belt.

But then came the first title defence…Matt Serra, coming off The Ultimate Fighter season 4 got the automatic shot, and he shocked the world.  GSP, admittedly, wasn’t mentally ready and therefore he wasn’t physically ready.  He made a vow that something like that would never happen again…and it hasn’t.  Dominating wins have followed…first Josh Koscheck, then Matt Hughes, then Serra, and finally the 5 round war with Jon Fitch.  He always has the perfect gameplan once he stands in, and he has shown the mental edge to make sure that gameplan is executed.

GSP boasts an incredible array of talents.  His cardio is unmatched, and few, if any, can push forward like he does.  His ability to carry a torrid pace for an entire fight is incredible.  He is a great striker, able to pick and choose his spots with solid kicks and disguised punching.  He’s also very elusive and extremely hard to connect with…when you do connect, you have to expect you’re taking a shot back the other way.  His takedowns are almost impossible to block, and once he’s on top, you’ve got to expect furious shots as he moves to escape the guard.  Ask Matt Serra, a black belt grappler, who had his guard passed with ease.

Here’s how I see this fight breaking down.  BJ and Georges will work a nice gameplan on the feet, and both will be able to connect and score.  I don’t believe Penn will be able to finish this fight while both are standing.  Early on, St. Pierre is going to use takedowns sparingly and save them until the 3rd rounds and into the championship rounds.  I believe it will end in a hard fought 5 round battle with St. Pierre winning a unanimous decision.

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