There is no debating…the main event at UFC 91 is the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history.  When 3 time Heavyweight Champion Randy “The Natural” Couture steps into The Octagon against Brock Lesnar, the world of MMA will be abuzz like it has never been before.

Lets break down why this is being billed, and accurately so, as “The Biggest Fight in MMA History.”  You’re looking at arguably the most popular fighter in UFC history in Couture, so the PPV buy rate was going to be high regardless, just bceause Couture is a huge draw.  Brock Lesnar is one of the sports true crossover stars, bringing a hoarde of non-traditional MMA fans to the sports due to his past with the WWE.  Putting those 2 factors together, you’re looking at a massive buyrate.  The UFC is hoping for a record shattering 1.2 million buys, but on The FAN 960 yesterday, The Fight Network’s John Pollock told me 800 thousand is probably a little more realistic.  Regardless, it’ll be a record setting night for UFC President Dana White.

Now lets break down the fight.  To me, this fight comes down to a few factors.  First of all, what will the ring rust be like for Randy?  He hasn’t fought in a year and a half, and I just worry about whether or not it’ll have a huge effect or not.  In the UFC 91 conference call last Thursday, Randy brushed it off.  “I may not have had a fight in a cage, but I’ve got a cage right here in my gym,” was the quote from “The Natural”.  Couture has proven he is as ageless as they come, but remember, he is 45 entering the main event tonight.  500 days without a fight mixed with the age factor, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it plays some sort of factor in the fight tonight.  Maybe not a HUGE factor, but in some way.

There’s not a question in my mind that if this fight stays standing, Couture will school Lesnar.  His footwork and veteran savvy will be too much for the relative newcomer to the sport.  If this thing stays upright, Couture will be able to grind out a win, the same way he did against Gabriel Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia before that.  In those fights, Couture was able to get inside his opponents considerable reach advantage and score with short punches and good ring work.  He used his superior wrestling effectively en route to a decision win over Sylvia and a TKO over Gonzaga.

But the problem is, neither Sylvia nor Gonzaga were wrestlers, and Couture had the edge.  That is not the case here, as Lesnar is one of the best wrestlers the sports has ever seen, after going 106-5 in his collegiate career at the University of Minnesota.  So, lets picture a scenario.  Lesnar decides to stand with Couture, and starts getting worked like I believe he will.  So, Lesnar decides to use his wrestling, take Randy down and use top position to grind out a decision.  And that’s exactly how I think this fight is going to go, because Couture will be unable to block the takedowns from the larger, more powerful Lesnar.

Randy is more seasoned, more experienced than Lesnar.  And usually I’d give the edge to Couture, regardless of the fact he’s giving up 50 pounds to his opponent.  But in this case, the opponent is TOO powerful, and I’ve gotta give the edge to Brock Lesnar.  My call…5 round decision win.

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