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By HOWARD BERGER

TORONTO (June 23) – Some thoughts, observations and gut feelings about the Maple Leafs heading into the National Hockey League entry draft Friday at Montreal… 

MOVIN’ ON UP: Though general manager Brian Burke has forcefully indicated his desire to not only trade up from the club’s No. 7 draft slot – but to grab the coveted No. 1 position and land top-rated prospect John Tavares – accomplishing such a feat will be next to impossible. The reason is simple: For one of the few times in the annals of the universal draft, which dates to 1970, there appears to be a trio of franchise players at the top. Any of Tavares, Victor Hedman or Matt Duchene is considered of such quality that NHL teams can likely build their entire programs around them. There have been draft years, of course, in which even the top prospect is rated below “franchise” caliber, and history suggests that at least one of the big three this summer will fail to attain such billing. But, you won’t find a scout on the planet willing to bet which one. Though NHL stars have regularly been drafted beyond No. 3, only once since 1970 have the top three positions turned into “franchise” commodities. That was in 1997; when initial four selections (Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Olli Jokinen and Roberto Luongo) went on to attain varied levels of greatness. More commonly through the years has a dynamic duo emerged at the top of the draft, beginning in 1971 with Guy Lafleur and Marcel Dionne. It also happened in 1984 with Mario Lemieux and Kirk Muller; 1985 with Wendel Clark and Craig Simpson; 1987 with Pierre Turgeon and Brendan Shanahan; 1988 with Mike Modano and Trevor Linden; 2001 with Ilya Kovalchuk and Jason Spezza; 2003 with Marc-Andre Fleury and Eric Staal, and – most significantly – 2004 with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. But, it’s extremely rare for three prospects to be rated in the franchise category. That’s why Burke would do very well to repeat what his predecessor, Cliff Fletcher, pulled off last year, and move up two spots to No. 5. It would likely enable Burke to draft Luke Schenn’s brother, Brayden Schenn, who will almost certainly be gone before the No. 7 selection. But even that, in my opinion, will be difficult. Given the accent on player development, and the salary restrictions on entry-level personnel in the post-lockout NHL, nothing beyond short-sightedness will prompt any of the top five teams to deal their picks this year.

SKILL vs. BRAWN: Burke likely made pro sports managerial history by using the word “testosterone” during his introductory news conference at the Air Canada Centre last November. But, it clearly indicated the type of player he wants to accent in his re-shaping of the Maple Leafs. Burke gets a bad rap from those that suggest his 2007 Stanley Cup team in Anaheim was comprised of blood-thirsty behemoths. There was a fair amount of non-aggressive skill on that club (Scott Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne, Andy McDonald, Dustin Penner) and it isn’t likely that Burke will eschew small, crafty players as he builds the Leafs. But, his draft blueprint differs from the Detroit Red Wings. Never will you hear Wings’ GM Ken Holland utter the word “testosterone”. He has always instructed his scouts to concentrate on pure skill, regardless of a player’s size. And, that’s probably why the Red Wings have an astounding collection of talent that was drafted well beyond the first round. In fact, it’s amazing to consider that among current players Nick Lidstrom, Chris Osgood, Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall, Johan Franzen, Valteri Filppula, Jonathan Ericsson and Darren Helm, only Kronwall was selected by Detroit in the opening round. While this is obviously an extreme example, it loudly speaks to the Red Wings’ pursuit of uncompromising skill. And, it’s the sort of bridge that Burke may have to cross on Friday night at the Bell Centre. What if he has a choice, say, between a rugged prospect such as Peterborough Petes’ Zack Kassian, and a more passive, highly-skilled player such as Sweden’s Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson (who is rated slightly ahead of Kassian by most scouts)? I think I know the player Detroit would select. In fact, a pair of scouts has told me in recent days that Paajarvi-Svensson is a “typical” Red Wings draft choice. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll turn into a better NHLer than Kassian, who has the potential to be a more complete player; to advance quicker to the big league; and is definitely more in the Burke mold. But, there’s a solid chance Paajarvi-Svensson’s talent will ultimately prevail. The Leafs went a similar route last year when they chose Schenn ahead of the fleet Nikita Filatov, who was unable to crack the Columbus line-up on a full-time basis. But, what about three or four years from now? That’s the issue confronting Burke in a choice between skill and brawn.

IT WON’T SURPRISE ME IF: All of Alexei Ponikarovsky, Matt Stajan and Mikhail Grabovski are traded by Burke this summer. Not to mention at least one of Tomas Kaberle or Pavel Kubina. This may seem excessive and it might suggest to some of you that I consider these players castoffs. Not true. The reason I believe Burke may peddle the abovementioned is three-fold: a) they have varying levels of marketability, but all can still play in the NHL, assuring the Leafs of return value; b) three of the five [Ponikarovsky, Stajan and Kaberle] badly need a change of address after wallowing in team mediocrity for half-a-decade, and c) Burke cannot affect real change by hanging on to the same nucleus of veteran players. If that requires him to make a sideways move or two – change for the sake of change – then it’s something he’ll have to strongly consider. The Leafs (and their followers) have traditionally over-valued players out of concern they may go elsewhere and burst into stardom. It’s the attitude that prevented John Ferguson, in 2006, from parting with Alex Steen in a deal that would have landed the Leafs Chris Pronger. How absurd does that sound today? Matt Stajan, similarly, is a good player and a quality person. But, he’ll never be more to the Leafs than he is right now… same with Ponikarovsky; same with Kaberle. A change of scenery may refresh the careers of these veterans to some extent (none, I can guarantee you, will begin to contend for individual trophies) and it may provide the Leafs with ingredients they do not currently possess. It will certainly begin to alter what has proven, without question, to be a losing hand. Grabovski is more of an isolated issue. Though he was too streaky to be a legitimate top-six forward last season, the Montreal castoff has undeniable talent and competitiveness. He is worthy of being retained as a building block for the franchise, pending his decision to seek arbitration as a method of landing a contract extension. Burke has limited patience for the arbitration process, beyond respecting its rightful place in the collective bargaining agreement. Once a player chooses that route, there is no back-pedaling – or, as Burke put it, “there will not be any settlements on the courthouse steps”. The sense I have is this: If Grabovski takes the Leafs to arbitration and wins, Burke will trade him. He won’t walk away from a ruling, which is also the Leafs’ right, but neither will he continue to look upon Grabovski as truly a part of the team.

GOALTENDING QUESTION-MARKS: There’s a strong sentiment that the Leafs can jettison minor-leaguer Justin Pogge if they are successful in landing Swedish free agent Jonas Gustavsson, but I’m not certain the two are connected. In fact, the Leafs may well have to come to a decision on Pogge before Gustavsson makes a call on which NHL team he’ll join, as Pogge must be tendered a qualifying offer by July 1^st. Otherwise, he, too, becomes a free agent. Sure, the presence of Gustavsson – if even close to his advance billing – will knock Pogge down a rung in the Leafs’ netminding sequence and, no, Pogge has done nothing to send Burke’s heart aflutter. But, it may be unwise to give up on the 23-year-old, simply because hanging onto him will not cause the Leafs undue economic distress. It won’t cost millions of dollars to retain Pogge, and there’s more of a trend toward a goalie coming around at a later stage of development than either a forward or a defenseman. So, strategically, it makes sense for Burke to qualify Pogge next week, and then “worry” about whether Gustavsson can supplant him in the goaltending rotation. A much bigger decision awaits Burke before next summer, as he’ll have to determine whether a sub-par performance by Vesa Toskala last season resulted from groin and hip ailments, or if the Leafs must look elsewhere for a No. 1 man. As we speak, the club has nothing but question marks pertaining to its most critical component.

THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE: Will Burke pull off a move this summer that comes entirely out of left field in terms of speculation and gossip? Take it to the bank.

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I have a heavy heart tonight, as the global recession has finally left its mark on the radio station for which I’ve worked the past 21 years. My pal and colleague, Norm Rumack, was terminated this week after more than a decade-and-a-half as the indomitable “Late-Night Vampire”. I always admired Norm for his ability to handle the graveyard air shift, as he bantered with callers and interviewed hundreds of subjects over the years between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. It’s not a stretch to say that Norm’s fiery persona carried the radio station in the early days of the all-sports format (which began in September, 1992), and he developed an unmistakable presence at THE FAN-590. Times, however, do change, and Norm is now looking for a new venture. I haven’t yet talked to my long-time boss, Nelson Millman, about Norm’s departure, but I can guarantee it was one of the toughest decisions he’s ever made as program director and general manager. I join Nelson and, I’m sure, many of you in wishing Norm a quick bounce-back, and much success in whatever gig he ultimately lands.

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