<%=siteName%>

By HOWARD BERGER

TORONTO (Mar. 31) – It was a comment made in the midst of a detailed and wide-ranging discussion with reporters on Monday afternoon at the Air Canada Centre. Maple Leafs’ coach Ron Wilson was star-of-the-day, as his players underwent late-season fitness testing and were unavailable to gab with the media. So, Ron – the lucky stiff – had us all to himself.

At one point, he spoke justly and accurately about the young players that have made strides on his watch at various times this season – names such as Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, John Mitchell and Luke Schenn. But, Wilson also repeated his assertion that next season could be more of a struggle for the Leafs than the current one, or any of the past three non-playoff years. On the surface, that seemed like a contradiction. If the young players are getting better, shouldn’t they continue to improve, thereby prodding the club northward in the standings in 2009-10? Ron’s response was interesting and potentially revealing.

“No, because we’re going to be even younger next year,” the coach said. “I know how Brian [Burke] operates and I’m very confident there are going to be a lot more changes.”

Left on its own, that remark also makes sense. Burke, the first-year Leafs’ GM, has rarely been hesitant to execute risky, high-profile maneuvers on behalf of his clubs – witness the scheming and stage-managing required to select Swedish twins Henrik and Daniel Sedin, consecutively, at the top of the 1999 NHL draft for Vancouver; the luring of mega-star Scott Niedermayer as a free agent to Anaheim in 2005, and the fast-acting trade that brought the incomparable Chris Pronger to the Ducks from Edmonton in 2006. It’s the reason I’ve often said that no man is better qualified to ultimately end the Leafs’ Stanley Cup drought.

But, the act of making “a lot more changes” – as Wilson put it – for next season is going to require something from Burke that borders on magic. The only other option is petitioning the league to increase the roster size to 30. As it stands – with a limit of 23 players per team, and with only 20 eligible to dress for each game – Burke will have to do a phenomenal amount of manipulating for the Leafs to appear even marginally different than this season’s club.

The evidence and challenge lies in the numbers: Including Notre Dame collegian Chris Hanson – signed as a free agent earlier today – Burke has 17 players under contract for 2009-10… nine forwards; seven defensemen and one goalie. Only six are committed for 2010-11. The forwards signed through next year are Hanson, Jason Blake, Niklas Hagman, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan, Kulemin, Mitchell, and Jamal Mayers. The defensemen are Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle, Jeff Finger, Mike Van Ryn, Schenn, Jonas Frogren and Ian White. And, the goalie is Vesa Toskala.

As you can see, that list doesn’t include players you would think the Leafs are interested in either re-signing or moving up to the NHL on a full-time basis – names such as Martin Gerber, Grabovski, Phil Oreskovic, Jiri Tlusty and Anton Stralman. Add them to the abovementioned, and it leaves Burke with one available roster spot to get to the 23-man limit. It also puts the Leafs two men over the active player limit per game.

So, how does the GM go about making “a lot more changes” for next season?

The obvious answer lies in buy-outs and trades, but roster maneuvering is much easier said than done in the post-lockout NHL and is likely to be more of a challenge when factoring in the anticipated salary-cap reduction in 2010-11, owing to the world-wide economic recession. Add to that Burke’s oft-stated desire that his club avoids becoming an embarrassment in the standings – there are obligations to sponsors and season-ticket holders paying increased prices – and you can see the man is in a quandary.

How does he change a team for next season with so many contractual commitments, while keeping it from tumbling to New York Islander-type depths? And, isn’t it important for a club that misses the playoffs not to return virtually intact?

Though the circumstances are slightly different, that was John Ferguson’s fatal error as GM of the Leafs. In the early summer of 2007, he worked feverishly to re-assemble the roster that fell flat during the ’06-07 season. It ultimately cost him, and coach Paul Maurice, their jobs. Maurice was said to be a failure, only to be re-hired by a better team in Carolina, where he has led the Hurricanes to a 30-17-5 record since taking over from Peter Laviolette in early-December. Even more impressively, the ‘Canes are a sizzling 10-1-2 in their past 13 games – all of them with critical playoff implications.

So, change must be made to a team that misses out on the post-season even once [let alone four times], even if such a circumstance was expected. That’s where Burke finds himself as it relates to 2009-10. What does he do?

As mentioned, movement towards next season is less about cap issues and more about creating roster openings. Among forwards, this is where Stajan, Ponikarovsky, Mayers and Stempniak immediately come to mind.

Stajan is a reliable, every-game player and a terrific person and teammate, but he seemed to plateau early this season when he performed briefly at a point-per-game pace alongside Ponikarovsky and Nik Antropov. He’s not likely to re-assume that offensive posture. The Leafs need a more aggressive presence in his spot and Burke could likely obtain a middle-round draft pick from any number of teams in a deal.

Ponikarovsky is prime trading material at the moment. He’ll finish this season with a career best in goals [likely between 25 and 28] and Burke would be wise to strike while the iron’s hot. Pony has one year left before unrestricted free agency and may never be a better player than he is right now. He’s worth a second-round pick and a prospect from the right team.

Though Mayers is a respected veteran and a good guy, the Leafs must replace his spot on the roster with a younger player. Burke can easily buy out the remaining year of his $1.4-million contract.

Stempniak is a decent forward, but not worth a roster position on a restructuring team. He might be tradable, given that his cap hit [$1.882 million] is less than his salary [$3.5 million]. Otherwise, Burke has the flexibility to buy out his final year as well.

The blueline presents a tougher challenge. You can be certain that Burke will trade Kubina if a rival team steps up to assume his $5 million contract [and cap hit] for next season. But, to me, that’s a big if. First, another GM has to determine that Kubina is worth $5 million… almost assuredly, from a club that considers itself a Cup contender, and a team that believes the addition of a mostly one-dimensional rearguard is worth the cash. Most importantly, the team must have cap room to work with, and choose to spend it on one player.

Given that almost all clubs in the contending bracket are up against the cap, peddling a $5 million salary this summer is no sure thing for Burke. Particularly if he’s asked – as part of a deal – to take back a questionable contract that extends beyond next season… a pretty good bet with any team willing to talk about No. 77. Burke should not be seeking any sort of return here. If he can give away Kubina’s salary, he sheds mammoth cap space and opens up a valuable roster spot for next season. But, again, that won’t be easy.

Kaberle is a better trade option, given that he still has two years left on his modest $4.25-million pact. That allows an opposing team to slot Kaberle into its budget for 2010-11. But, it’s also a prime reason in Burke’s mind to retain the Czech blueliner. He has to balance Kaberle’s easy contract; his skill-set, and his low-maintenance demeanor against the convenience of hanging on to a player that knows almost nothing about winning at the NHL level. When next season begins, it will be more than five calendar years since Kaberle last appeared in a playoff game. Barring the unforeseen, that interval will likely grow to seven years, as the Leafs aren’t expected to push into the top eight before 2011.

At that point, Kaberle will be 33 and at the end of his contract. Therefore, striking a deal this summer – or next trade deadline, at the latest – is imperative for Burke. A trade in the off-season would provide Stralman an opportunity to play full time next year, and to occupy the front-line powerplay role that many believe he is capable of.

If Burke and Wilson are keen on moving Oreskovic into a full-time role, Ian White presents a good trade option. I know Burke has stated on several occasions that he likes the maturing defenseman, but Oreskovic could provide the Leafs some much-needed sandpaper on the back end [he first has to be re-signed as a restricted free agent]. White will make only $950,000 next season and has proven to rival teams that he can play regularly, if a bit too passively for the Leafs’ growing needs.

Whether Burke considers any of these moves is purely speculative. He also has the less-appealing option of waiver demotions at his disposal. But, it’s the sort of creativity he’ll need to display if he plans on following Wilson’s promise of “a lot more changes” for next season.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 at 9:11 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.