By HOWARD BERGER
TORONTO (Oct. 6) – Prior to watching the Maple Leafs during their nine-game exhibition schedule, I had been slightly wavering about where they could fit among the NHL’s bottom- feeders this season. But, there is no longer any question.
Hold onto your hats, Leafs Nation. For the first time in 24 years, the Blue & White will be looking up at the rest of the league when the regular season ends on Apr. 12th. Not since 1984-85 have the Leafs finished dead-last in the NHL, but the plan by management this summer to scale back in the interests of ultimately moving forward will bear spectacular results.
And, nothing could be more beneficial for the long-term welfare of the franchise.
The Leafs will place 30th among 30 teams and the only question to be answered is whether they will break the post-lockout record for fewest points in a season. The Philadelphia Flyers hold that distinction with a 56-point showing in 2006-07. In fact, that remains the fewest number of points accrued by any team since Atlanta had 54 in 2001-02. Coincidentally or not, the Leafs 2-5-2 exhibition mark this autumn places the club on a collision course with Philadelphia’s dubious honor of two years ago. Multiplying the Leafs’ preseason effort over 82 games results in a record of 18-45-19 for 55 points. That is a colossal 16 points less than the worst team in the NHL last season. Tampa Bay brought up the rear with 71 points and won the draft lottery.
Could the 2008-09 Maple Leaf bottom out to that degree? Absolutely.
Will they bottom out to that degree? Maybe not.
Goaltending and an improved defensive posture under new coach Ron Wilson might enable the Leafs to approach Tampa’s accumulation of a year ago. But, after further consideration, I’m not certain that 70 points is attainable [as I suggested in my previous blog]. Toronto should, however, partake in a ferocious, season-long battle with the Islanders, Atlanta and Los Angeles to see which team actually finishes in 30th spot. As such, the immediate future of the franchise will be largely dependent on nine games this season – four with the Islanders [Dec. 8th, Dec. 26th, Feb. 26th, Mar. 10th]; four with Atlanta [Nov. 25th, Dec. 22nd, Dec. 30th, Jan. 16th], and the lone meeting with the Kings, Dec. 1st, at the Staples Center. If the Leafs can limit their accumulation to no more than seven or eight out of 18 points during these games [a very real possibility], either John Tavares or Victor Hedman will almost certainly be theirs next June 26th in Montreal. And, the club will finally be heading in the proper direction.
This has been the plan ever since Cliff Fletcher assumed the managerial reigns from John Ferguson last January. It has become increasingly difficult to dissuade followers of the Maple Leafs through the years, as a crack over the head with a mallet wouldn’t be sufficient to cloud the rose-colored glasses indigenous to this tribe. In modern professional sport, only fans of the Chicago Cubs are comparable among those willing to absorb infinite punishment. As with the Cubs, force of habit and gullibility have been the Maple Leafs’ greatest allies.
But, Fletcher, ever the diplomat and keenly aware of the unshakeable love for his team, has refrained from offering to the public his most portentous thoughts – choosing, instead, to say things like “We hope to be better in December than we are today, and better in February than we are in December.”
Fletcher’s actions of the past nine months, however, speak louder than his conciliatory words. He finds himself in the most envious position of any GM in the history of the club. His lucrative contract, at post-retirement age 73, expires next August, prior to the 2009-10 NHL season, and he therefore has almost no burden to engender an improved product on his watch. It is the complete antithesis of the crushing strain felt on a minute-to-minute basis by Ferguson, whose inexperience and obligation to a meddling board produced a bevy of ruinous decisions. Fletcher, conversely, has the abetment required to put into action a formula consistent with the post-lockout model in the NHL. And, it has long been evident that the up-coming season is not at all beholden to that blueprint.
Without the presence of Mats Sundin to make a dreadful club just terrible, the Leafs will finally slide, unconstrained, to the depths of the 30-team league. For at least one year, it seems as if the ownership pyramid at Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment is willing not to encumber its hockey department with guidance and brainpower – the sort that has positioned the club, in recent years, to scramble for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Condominium sales being what they are, MLSE hasn’t even budgeted for playoff dates next spring at the Air Canada Centre. Given the Leafs’ immediate potential, of course, that’s the rough equivalent of department stores in the Bahamas refusing to budget for parkas.
This is going to be – by design – a long, difficult season for the Maple Leafs; more so for their legion of supporters, who won’t have much to cheer about unless they keep one eye focused on the future. The process followed by the club in recent years couldn’t have been more damaging. The Leafs had neither the capacity to qualify for the playoffs, nor the foresight to understand that wallowing on the fringe of contention was the worst possible strategy. As such, we get the actions of this past summer, when the GM runs off almost all of the club’s best [yet overpaid, underachieving] players, and replaces them with younger, bargain-priced commodities, mostly devoid of pedigree.
What it amounts to is a club that will score among the least number of goals in the NHL, and will easily threaten Philadelphia’s post-lockout standard of fewest points in a season if Vesa Toskala spends any length of time on the injury list. Off the ice, the Leafs’ biggest challenge will be tolerating another brutal season in one of the NHL’s most intense markets. And, undoubtedly, dealing with mixed signals from a disillusioned public. I’m still amazed by the number of Leaf fans that write and tell me they’ll be pleased if the club “overachieves” this season and contends for a playoff spot; as if the folly of the past three seasons hasn’t even registered.
The only way up for the hockey club right now is down.
That’s why you can be sure that less is more for the Maple Leafs in 2008-09.
It will be the polar opposite for the Leafs’ legendary rival, the Montreal Canadiens. Though it’s difficult to pick against the loaded Red Wings, my sense is Detroit will lose just a slight edge in the playoff marathon next spring, being the defending champion. That’s all it will take for the Habs – led by Bob Gainey, the best GM in the Eastern Conference – to commemorate their 100th season in the NHL with their first Stanley Cup triumph since 1993.
So, having the benefit of exhibition play now behind us, and with injuries factored in, this is undoubtedly, unequivocally and with scientific certainty the way the standings will shape up in the coming season:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. MONTREAL 107 points
2. WASHINGTON 102 points
3. NEW YORK RANGERS 100 points
4. PITTSBURGH 98 points
5. PHILADELPHIA 97 points
6. BOSTON 94 points
7. NEW JERSEY 92 points
8. OTTAWA 90 points
9. TAMPA BAY 89 points
10. CAROLINA 88 points
11. BUFFALO 87 points
12. FLORIDA 84 points
13. ATLANTA 76 points
14 NEW YORK ISLANDERS 71 points
15. TORONTO 67 points
NOTES: Defenseman Sergei Gonchar is an incalculable loss for the Penguins, as he orchestrates so much of the attack from the defensive zone, and quarterbacks the powerplay. His absence will enable the New York Rangers to grab their first division title since 1993-94, the year they last won the Stanley Cup… The Penguins won’t make it past the opening round of the playoffs, as Philadelphia will avenge last year’s defeat in the Conference final… The Rangers, with the brilliant Henrik Lundqvist in goal, will knock off the Bruins and Capitals before being edged by Montreal for a berth in the Stanley Cup… On the final Saturday of the regular season, Tampa Bay will suffer a dreadful loss in Atlanta, while Ottawa will hand the Maple Leafs yet another defeat. That will give the Senators the final playoff berth over the resurgent Lightning.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. DETROIT 111 points
2. SAN JOSE 107 points
3. CALGARY 100 points
4. ANAHEIM 103 points
5. DALLAS 99 points
6. CHICAGO 96 points
7. MINNESOTA 93 points
8. EDMONTON 91 points
9. PHOENIX 90 points
10. VANCOUVER 88 points
11. COLORADO 87 points
12. NASHVILLE 83 points
13. ST. LOUIS 81 points
14. COLUMBUS 78 points
15. LOS ANGELES 70 points
NOTES: With Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne back in the fold from the outset, the Ducks will give Toronto-bound Brian Burke a wonderful parting gift by reaching the Conference championship and taking Detroit to the brink. Ultimately, the Red Wings will survive to re-appear in the Stanley Cup final against Montreal – the first such match-up since 1966… Hearts will be broken in Phoenix on the final Saturday of the regular season when the Oilers knock off Calgary and the Coyotes lose to Anaheim. That combination will give Edmonton the final playoff spot in the West by a single point over Wayne Gretzky’s crew. But, the Coyotes won’t miss the post-season in any of the next three years… San Jose will again underachieve in the spring – struggling to shade Minnesota in the first round before losing to Anaheim… The Blackhawks will continue their rise and make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Then they’ll surprise Calgary in the opening round before losing a pre-expansion match-up with Detroit… Nashville will finally tumble out of playoff contention.
PLAYOFFS:
EAST
MONTREAL vs. Ottawa [Canadiens in 5]
WASHINGTON vs. New Jersey [Capitals in 6]
NEW YORK RANGERS vs. Boston [Rangers in 6]
PITTSBURGH vs. Philadelphia [Flyers in 7]
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MONTREAL vs. Philadelphia [Canadiens in 6]
WASHINGTON vs. New York Rangers [Rangers in 7]
****************************************
MONTREAL vs. New York Rangers [Canadiens in 6]
WEST
DETROIT vs. Edmonton [Red Wings in 6]
SAN JOSE vs. Minnesota [Sharks in 7]
CALGARY vs. Chicago [Blackhawks in 7]
ANAHEIM vs. Dallas [Ducks in 6]
*************************************
DETROIT vs. Chicago [Red Wings in 6]
SAN JOSE vs. Anaheim [Ducks in 6]
**************************************
DETROIT vs. Anaheim [Red Wings in 7]
**************************************
STANLEY CUP FINAL
DETROIT vs. Montreal [Canadiens in 6]
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Howard,
I agree that the Leafs will struggle this season, I disagree with the levels that you are predicting. You sound like many of the speculators I’ve been listening to all day. All doom and gloom.
I’ve copied and pasted your predictions and filed them away. If you’re way off, I’ll be the first to remind you of it.
If you’re bang on, I’ll also be the first to post the kudos you deserve.
I just think these kids will do better than you think.
A playoff team? No
Dead last? No
I predict 11th.
- Andrew ShoneSomebody is reading my comments. Ian White at forward and Mark Bell on waivers were my last two pearls of wisdom
- JimPicking Montreal to win the cup? Pack your bag now Howard!
- LexHi Howard,
- John CurrieIf the leafs finish as low as everyone predicts,am I correct in saying the first round pick will be a lottery pick.THerefore there is no guarantee that they will be able to draft him in the first round.I am one of the few or the only person who thinks that the Leafs will finish higher in the standings than most think
Thanks Howard
Go Leafs Go
Howie…I couldn’t agree with you more….The Leafs will be downright pathetic this year!!!
- Bernardanother negative post about the leafs.. what a shock.
- curtIs there anything sillier than not just predicting playoff matchups which are 6 months away, but also guessing the number of games these mythical series will go? Get real.
- Rob JanssensToronto is going to be bad this year. No question. I think that Sundin’s impact last season is given too much value. Last place is a very real possibility but far from a certainty.
- JohnVery entertaining read. Love early season predictions.
Go Howard!
In total agreement, I won’t look at the win loss colomn, I just want to see a bunch of kids playing their hearts out and hopefully get better.
- Allan WinchesterHey Howard,
I read your blog often b/c you keep up-to-date with everything going on in leafland. I find this article saying they will finish last ridiculous. All you do is suck up to the leafs players/coaches/management in a sickening and little puppy dog kind of way, and then you slam them in your blog. I guarantee you have this wrong, and I will be glad when you have to admit it. Thank you
- Casey Nash…and Cliff Fletcher trades the Loafs 2009 first round pick for veteran defenceman Chris CHELIOS.
- J. KennedyThis will be a season where Leaf followers can look at the development of players who will learn how to play in the NHL.
Hopefully the Leafs will lose with honour often rather than taking monthly or bi-weekly blowout loses.
- HeatonHoward, no one with any hockey sense cares about your opinion or prognostications.
It is obvious that all your opinions are made to simply create a stir or are reflective of the personal relationships (or lack of them) you have with certain players, more notably with whom will and won’t have an interview with you.
A credible hockey journalist writes about hockey, and that alone will get them attention.
- GIANNIPlease keep this post on the website.. First of all.. Montreal Canadians are the most overrated team in the NHL. You think the Montreal Canadians led by a one year phenom Alexei Kovalev.. will lead them to a cup. Alexei Kovalev will never lead a team to the NHL’s ultimate goal. If the Canadians pick up a great player then maybe.. They have the goaltending.
I continue to think the Leafs will surpass everyone’s goals this year. Jason Blake will score 40.. Steen 32 Stajan 31. Nobody has ever seen these guys lead a team. Thats why I think everyone’s predictions of the Leafs are too funny. They are just predictions. And someone who attends every Toronto Maple Leaf game has the shame of making a statement like this one. Its pathetic.
- DarrylGreat one, Howard. I love what the Leafs are doing. It seems like they have something they haven’t had in my entire life… a plan!
- Jeff ShannonWow, Burger
you are the biggest bandwagon jumper i have ever seen. Let’s see how many times you change your tune this year. As for Montreal winning the cup…maybe you meant the Bulldogs.
- DomWhen you wake up from your dream, let us know.
- Niel McBrydeAs far as Gonchar goes, I’m hoping that Fletcher can trade Kaberle to Pittsburgh for at least another 1st Round pick. As Howard has wrote before, Kaberle will likely be gone by the trade deadline anyway, and if the Leafs are going to finish last this season why not try to get as many 1st round picks as possible for next summer.
- LakerCaptainThanks Howard, that was fun. I hope you re-”publish” this blog again at the end of the season so we can see how you did. Right or wrong (I’m sure some of both) this would be fun.
- SteveI gotta say this as much as it pains me. I hope Howard is right. I want this club to be good for a long time and the only way that happens is to draft high a few years in a row and then add to it with good high calibre free agents. If the team is in the hunt for a play off spot at years end I will be actively disappointed. Go Leafs Go (but next year or maybe the year after that…)
- D.A MitchellDarryl - Yes I agree with you that Blake will have a great year. However,Stajan - 31 goals? I find that one very hard to believe. White will score more goals than him even if he stays on defence.
- BrianThe Leafs will certainly be near the bottom, but they will find a way to scrape out enough points to finish 2nd or 3rd last in their conference. As for the Habs winning it all … possible … consider that the last time they won (1993) they also hosted the All-Star game … however, will the FAN590 allow you to stay on-board after that prediction?
- DPiedraLet’s say it is around Christmas and the Leafs are hanging around just trade Kaberle and Vesa .
- Domenic CaputoThen we get the first pick for sure.
It’s amazing how many Leaf followers take an honest and realistic prediction as an insult.
- NormanLeaf fans, when you finally get your heads out of the sand, please compare rosters and realize that this club will be fortunate to win 2 of it’s first 10 games.
Grabovski, the Leafs leading scorer in camp, could not even crack the Habs lineup.
An 18 year old boy looks GOOD on defence with this team… Schenn would spend at least 2 more years in junior if he were a Hab, and only come into the league if he was ready to play hockey against men.
Howard, picking the Habs took some moxy… I hope you’re right!
montreal to win the cup this year
- ginomassariI for one appreciate your comments and insights. And really, anyone who thinks Blake, Steen and Stajan will score 100 goals…wow!! Will that be on NHL’09 the computer game?
- JarodLooking at the Leaf line-up ~ there is nothing there. There are a few players who are semi-decent, but a lot more who have never proven that they can do anything or a stretch longer than 10 games. Even Rory Fitzpatrick will go on a goal-scoring tear but that doesn’t mean he will win the Norris.
Being pessimistic about the Leafs is the most optimistic thing one can do this year. Otherwise we are condemned to a future of mediocrity.
so pessimistic, and what? Montreal to win cup? i was thinking they may barely make it to the playoffs.
- RogerHi Howard,
- ClarkYou write the word “will”, like you’re so positive. But lets face it Howard your not psychic and that has been proven many times over. Your not always wrong of coarse but when you are, you’re way off. Lets get 1 thing straight the Leafs “MAY” fininsh last but there is no “WILL”….. yet.
Nice piece Howard - lol
Don’t overdo those satire pills, I heard you can get your tongue permanently stuck in your cheek ;)
- Mark WebsterI’ve been a Leaf fan for past 40 years and as much as I love my Leafs, losing is the only way to win. You are bang on Howie. These so called Leaf fans that think you’re out to lunch need to drink a large glasss of reality. Keep up the great work Howie.
- RickHoward, I can see how you would look at the whole picture and decide that the Leafs are going to be last. But I think you have to step back and take another look, they will not be a contender, they will not be as dreadful as a lot of people have decided (considering the rest of the league. When you(we) look at the big picture we can only hope that they can do their best. We all hope they can win a cup.
Fan since 1963.
- David LowtherWell Howard, you have managed to stir up the leaf fans with your predictions. As I see it (and as a Habs fan) there are so many variables that making any predictions is just to hard. However, if the hardcore leaf fans continue to keep drinking the blue and white kool-aid and see anything in this season is that the on ice product has to stink before anything gets better. Unfortunately, they still believe that they are a defenceman and one forward away from a parade on Yonge Street.
- Greg ChabanI think if the leafs do better (which they will surprise a lot) I challenge Berger to put his job on the line with his predictions. I don’t have any problem with picking a team to win the stanley cup, but putting down a team on what? so called professional thinking?? Leafs will surprise a lot of people. They have a better all round team this year. I’d take 23 players with a team effort then 5 or 6 big names and egos anyday. We’ll see what happens starting tonight!
Time to put up or SHUT up Berger…
- Jasonwith all the talk about the leafs the team mite as well dont play any game and mail it in. lets wait and see i think the boys will do very good and thats wins gerry gonsalves
- gerryHey Bernard, you read like a Hab’s fan.Get ready for a huge disappointment Hab’s fan. You have every thing else except a proven goalie
- JimHey Gianni, sounds like your just jealous of Howard who does a commendable job or you wouldn’t be posting inane comments on his blog.
- JimWas that a win against the stanley cup champs ?!?!?!?! and before you say detroit didn’t play their best game even don cherry said TOR just outplayed them
- Jason