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By HOWARD BERGER 

LOS ANGELES (Aug. 6) – The hype machine appears to be out in full force for Nikolai Kulemin, a Russian-born forward that has been promised a roster spot with the Maple Leafs in 2008-09, even though he hasn’t played a minute of hockey in North America. Since the midway point of last season, I’ve received numerous e-mails asking me about the Leafs’ 2^nd-round draft choice [44^th overall] in 2006, and my replies have all been the same: I have to wait and see what the young guy can do in the NHL before offering an educated opinion.

Naturally, this hasn’t prevented success-starved followers of the Blue & White from dreaming in Technicolor… a symptom of just about every off-season in recent memory. It wasn’t long ago that Alex Steen was going to be the Leafs’ savior, and a top point producer. Kulemin is the Steen of 2008. Practically every line projection my e-mailers send me has Kulemin on the No. 1 forward unit, whether or not Mats Sundin returns.

One of my frequent correspondents copied me this rose-colored outlook from an Internet chat board: It has the Maple Leafs – universally considered to be among the least-talented clubs in the NHL right now – finishing with a 44-29-9 record for 97 points, an increase of eight wins and 14 points over last season. Forty-four wins and 97 points would have placed the Leafs fifth in the Eastern Conference a year ago, seven spots higher than they finished. It predicts the club will score virtually the same number of goals (231 instead of 230), but will reduce its goals-against total by a whopping 40 (from 260 to 220). Of no consequence is the fact that all of the clubs that missed the playoffs in the East in 2007-08 allowed more than 220 goals, and that only three clubs qualifying for the post-season [Pittsburgh, New Jersey and New York Rangers] permitted less than 220.

But, this example of delusion got better. Nik Kulemin was projected to win the Calder Trophy with 42 goals and 77 points. Now, as mentioned, I cannot offer a first-hand commentary on what Kulemin may be capable of in the NHL [though I received an expert opinion this week on the phone; more on that later]. There’s a chance I could have a better take on the Russian towards the end of next season, or into the 2009-10 campaign. Let’s use Jiri Tlusty, however, as an example of why Leaf fans should not get carried away.

Tlusty was the club’s best rookie last season, finishing with an underwhelming 10 goals and 16 points in 58 games. Many Leaf followers are expecting that he’ll improve on those numbers, and another year of experience may bear that out. But, to show how difficult it is for most European prospects to make an early impact in the NHL, consider this: Tlusty scored twice in his NHL debut at Pittsburgh on Oct. 25^th. In the 46 games between Oct. 27^th and Mar. 12^th, he added all of three more tallies. Included were 17 and 18-game goal-scoring droughts. In other words, Tlusty turned out to be an average-to-mediocre freshman in the big league.

But, of the young forwards that finished the 2007-08 season in Blue & White, he is easily considered to have the biggest up-side. That brings us to Kulemin. Though almost all objective assessments I’ve read or heard about the native of Magnitogorsk suggest he’ll be a good player, but not a big scorer, in the NHL, many Leaf supporters are drooling over the prospect of him playing on the top forward unit [which speaks volumes about the Leafs’ depth heading into the coming season].

The 42-goal, 77-point projection may not be indicative of most, and for good reason. Wendel Clark still holds the Leafs’ rookie record of 34 goals, established more than 20 years ago. Peter Ihnacak is still in possession of the freshman points’ mark, with 66, set in 1982-83. In the 74 seasons in which the Calder Trophy has been presented, a total of nine Maple Leafs players have won the award – but none since Brit Selby, 42 years ago [in 1965-66]. Kulemin would therefore bust off an impressive famine if he were to cop rookie-of-the-year honors.

Most of the hype surrounding Kulemin is naturally coming from the Maple Leafs, and it’s no surprise that a large faction of worshippers has swallowed the Kool-Aid. Again, that’s an annual rite of summer around Toronto. For my purposes, I looked at a couple of unbiased Internet opinions – from hockeysfutures.com and russianprospects.com. While both assessments speak fondly of Kulemin, each is clear in pointing out his apparent offensive limitations.

“…Not a very imaginative player, but makes solid, responsible decisions with the puck,” says hockeysfutures.com. “…While Kulemin is unlikely to ever develop into a top-line scoring sniper, his upside is that of a very capable third-line checking forward who would be able to fill in on the top lines in case of injury.”

Russianprospects.com says, “A typical workhorse who works hard and gives it 100% at any place on the ice… Does not possess a huge upside, but is a safe choice who will deliver well in the role described above, but will never become a top-line forward in the NHL.”

Given that I’m not aware who wrote these opinions, I called one of my long-time contacts – a man that has scouted European players on behalf of a Western Conference team for the past 15 years. “I don’t know if I’d be so quick to put a tag on Kulemin heading into the NHL,” he warned. “To automatically suggest he won’t be a big scorer may be a safe assumption, but it’s impossible to predict how he might respond to a leading role with the Leafs. Toronto is in a position where it will be counting on a lot of young players in the next few years, and Kulemin might be capable of warming to that responsibility.

“I really like the way he’s learned to effectively use his size. In some ways – just watching him out there – he looks a lot like [Evgeni] Malkin, but I agree that he doesn’t have [Malkin’s] hands. To expect that he’ll carry his scoring exploits from the Russian league into the NHL is probably a stretch. But, I think Toronto fans are going to like this kid, and I believe [new coach] Ron Wilson will really help him adjust to North America and the NHL.”

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On a personal note, unrelated to hockey, a big Happy Birthday to former Argonauts’ football coach Leo Cahill, who turned 80 last week. I saw Leo recently, and he looks terrific. In the late-‘60s and early-‘70s, no sports figure in Toronto was as prominent as Cahill, and his continued exclusion from the Canadian Football Hall of Fame is a travesty.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 at 7:17 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.