11:41 PM Central
After a long, arduous day of travelling from south Florida to north Florida to deep in the heart of Texas (simple summary – American Airlines sucks, Southwest Airlines is awesome), I touched down to see that with the Winter Meetings beginning Monday morning, Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated – and noted guy-to-whom-Scott-Boras-tells-things – has reported that the Blue Jays are one of three finalists in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, and may even be the frontrunners.
It’s wonderful news for Blue Jays fans, for sure, but it’s also not even remotely close to true.
Prince Fielder wants a huge contract. Massive term, truckload of money, and he may well be worth it. After all, the guy is only 27 years old and is already a monster. In his six full big-league seasons, he’s hit .282/.391/.541 with 228 home runs, and he’s missed a grand total of 13 games over those six years. He and Albert Pujols are the best hitters available on the market and though Fielder’s body type doesn’t exactly make one confident about his ability to stay healthy as he ages, he is at least four years younger than Pujols – if not nine.
Someone is going to give Prince Fielder a huge contract – seven or eight years, $20 million-plus per season – but it’s not going to be the Blue Jays. Both the term and the money appear to be well out of the range of what Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston deem sensible, especially the term.
The Mariners and Rangers both want Fielder, the Marlins and Cubs (and Cardinals, if Pujols leaves) will be in on him, and the Brewers still haven’t given up on keeping him in America’s Dairyland. At last rumoured word, the Brewers were willing to offer Fielder a six-year deal worth $120 million. The market would have to drop a lot more than that for Fielder to make sense for the Blue Jays.
Yes, Cecil Fielder played in Toronto, and some assume that because of that there’s a natural pull for his son to come to the Blue Jays. Never mind that father and son have a strained relationship and barely speak, the fact is that Prince Fielder was only four years old when his dad left the Blue Jays for Japan, and when Cecil came back to the big leagues, he spent seven years with the Tigers, playing almost five times as many games with them as he did with the Blue Jays. It was in Detroit where the stories came out of 10 year-old Prince hitting shots into the upper deck. If there’s any kind of familial pull for Prince Fielder, it would be to Detroit, not to Toronto.
Also this weekend, the Blue Jays traded Brad Mills to the Angels for Jeff Mathis. In some corners of the blogosphere, this was seen as a horrible trade for the Jays – after all, Mathis can’t hit a lick.
Thing about this deal is, though, it should hardly even make a blip. It’s almost completely insignificant. Brad Mills was never going to be a part of the Jays’ future. His stuff doesn’t play in the A.L. East, and it might not play in the entire junior circuit at all. I’d love to see Mills pitch for the Padres or the Giants, he could wind up being pretty successful there. As for Mathis, the Jays’ current back-up catcher, it’s true, he can’t hit at all. Or at least he hasn’t to this point, but he’s the catching version of John McDonald. No bat, big-time glove. And he’s here for the next week or so for Alex Anthopoulos to either tender him a non-guaranteed contract which would enable the Jays to hold him as an asset all winter and through spring training (hey, your veteran back-up catcher got hurt? We’ve got a spare!) or for the Jays to try to sign him to a cheaper one-year deal with an option for a second year.
Mathis appears to be able to do good things behind the plate. So much so that Mike Scioscia, who knows a thing or two about solid defensive backstoppageness, kept running him out there over Mike Napoli despite the fact that he didn’t hit at all. If Mathis stays with the Jays, he’s a back-up catcher who hopefully plays no more than 30 or 40 games. If he doesn’t stay, he doesn’t stay. All they gave up was Brad Mills.
I’m looking forward to getting to the Hilton Anatole for the hurry-up-and-wait of the Winter Meetings. It’s my third time here – the first meetings I ever went to were here in Dallas, back in 1995. I was here then as part of the Professional Baseball Employment Opportunities program and wound up getting a job with the broadcast of the Twins’ AA team.
The Blue Jays were pretty busy the last time I was here, signing A.J. Burnett and dealing for Lyle Overbay, and we had an ice storm to contend with, so that was fun.
What’s going to happen this time? A lot of groundwork will be laid, that’s for sure, and we may see the Jays pull off a big trade before they head home on Thursday afternoon.
Whatever happens, I’ll cover it for you here on the blog, on the Twitter @wilnerness590 and, of course, on Sportsnet590 The Fan, so keep an eye out all week long!
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
30 Responses to “In Big D, Finally!”
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Mike buddy, please change that old Jays logo up top if you can, its embarrassing.
MW: Sorry, has nothing to do with me.
- KyleBlue Jays will sign Prince, they will give him 5 years $125 million.
MW: Why would he take that?
- Nicholas McManus“At last rumoured word, the Brewers were willing to offer Fielder a six-year deal worth $120 million. The market would have to drop a lot more than that for Fielder to make sense for the Blue Jays.”
For a team whose president has said at some point the payroll will be 125 mill plus.
6/120 for Fielder makes sense.
If they are gonna spend money, you have to take some risks…
- smallcapsteveHey Mike,
The problem with the Mathis deal has nothing to do with his skills, or with the value of Brad Mills, but rather that it seems to be a waste of money. Mathis was going to be non-tendered, and the Jays could’ve signed him then as a FA for half of the $1.8M he’s set to make next year if they tender him a contract. So basically, they threw away $1M for nothing. Although I wasn’t aware of the possibility of tendering him a non-guaranteed contract. How does that work?
MW: The Blue Jays could still non-tender Mathis, and they get this week to negotiate a cheaper multi-year deal with him if both sides are so inclined. The contract he’ll get, if tendered, is non-guaranteed, so they can release him late in the spring and only owe him 1/6 the contract. So they’re really throwing away $300K, or Brad Mills, depending on how you look at it. Then again, they might actually like him.
- MikeI’m not getting my hopes up with any of these Fielder rumours. I’d like it to happen but am fully convinced this is just agent-driven (Boras) spinning done to increase interest in his client. I don’t see Rogers opening up the wallet for a signing like this for a long time.
I do hope the Jays have some kind of plan for 1B. Adam Lind has been awful the last 2 years (relative to his position) and continuing to give him a full-time position would be a mistake. He is a platoon player with some power and that’s it. To be getting an OBP around .300 from an offense-heavy spot like 1B is a waste.
- LukeI think its a huge overstatement to say Jeff Mathis has a big time glove. The guy has only thrown out 24% of runners his entire career, not to mention Matt Klaassen has a pretty in depth catcher defense ratings over at beyond the box score that puts Mathis below league average defensively the last 2 years running. As for Scoscia playing Mathis over Napoli, that was inexcusable and look how well its turned out for the Angels. Its very bad news that Jeff Mathis is our backup catcher cause if JPA has any type of injury your gonna see this guy a lot more than 25-30 games, which isn’t good for the Jays.
MW: It’s not very bad news, first of all. How many back-up catchers are there in the big leagues with whom anyone would be confident if they had to step in and play every day for a month? I think that number is pretty close to zero. Certainly Jose Molina isn’t on that list. The caught stealing numbers for Mathis are interesting, I wonder how much that has to do with the pitchers. How well did playing Mathis over Napoli work out for the Angels? I’m not sure what that means. The Angels won their division three of the four years that Napoli and Mathis were the primary catchers.
- CraigIt’s the most … wonderful time of the year …
Are you a believer in the fact that 2B Gordon Beckham of CHW has not scratched the surface of his potential (hint, hint)?
MW: Yes, and as you hint, I’m also a believer that the Blue Jays would love to have him.
- Adrian, co-alumnusIf the best offer out for Prince is 6/120, couldn’t you see the Blue Jays offering 6/150? Beeston/AA never said they wouldn’t do 6 six years, they always said 7 or 8 plus they won’t do. And the way I see it, if they get Prince it barely matters who plays 2B because they’d be batting 8th or 9th anyways, unless they can find a bona-fide leadoff hitter. The way I see it now (with Prince) is this:
Escobar 2B
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Fielder 1B
Lawrie 3B
Lind DH (or EE, prefer Lind)
Arencibia C
Snider/Thames LF
Second baseman – Beckham? Callaspo?
Pretty dirty lineup. Pick up a front of the line starter and a closer and we’ll see you in October.
MW: Thank you for spelling “bona fide” properly.
- Alex FanthopolousA good looking lineup, for sure. But your “see you in October” comment presupposes three things: one, that Rasmus, your projected #2 hitter, will hit more than his weight this season. Two, that Morrow turns into the bona fide #2 starter they’d need him to be to contend. And three, that one of the other starters suddenly turns into a lights-out 15-game winner… since the Jays can’t possibly make the playoffs with Romero and a bunch of guys who may not win 12 games each.
Fielder’s not the answer for the Jays, and at $25 million+ a season, he could be more of a roadblock to progress than not.
- JaysFanI know AA doesn’t like LT deals, but could you not go 7-8 for Price with a front loaded contract? That way if he does break down its easier to trade or sign another player later to bolster the lineup. Or does the CBA not allow for front loaded deals?
MW: The CBA allows a team to structure a contract pretty much any way they want – heck, Bobby Bonilla is still being paid by the Mets! The question about Fielder is why would he be willing to be creative with the Blue Jays when other teams will give him the same big-money types of deals?
- BobFielder – offer 3 year 30mil / year with a club option for a 4th year. He’s only 31-32 at the end and can still get a big contract. A bit of an overpay, but it would get it done.
MW: It may well, but it’s not going to happen.
- MARK_Radding an elite bat with an increasingly rare skillset in the ‘post-mitchell-report era’ is a a good idea in my books.
the historically cheap marlins just spent over 100 million dollars on a guy that’s been frequently injured the last 2 years despite having finished 20 games under .500 last year.
i don’t buy this line that the fan590 (who, like the jays, are owned by rogers fwiw) is espousing: namely that free agents won’t come here because of the teams record last year. what baloney. reyes is proof of that. and dave cameron of fangraphs – a stats-oriented guy like you mike, has already said that even if he’s hurt, this is still probably a terrific deal for the marlins.
MW: If he’s hurt, there’s no way it’s a terrific deal for the Marlins. And given that they also signed Heath Bell and may well sign one of Pujols or Fielder, new stadium and all that stuff, it’s a very different situation in Miami than it is in Toronto.
- ytT.O. has a lot of vegan restaurants? Just kidding. Long term success with a young team and the chance to show his dad up by smashing HRs in the ALE.
- BobIf the Jays aren’t willing to go large this off-season for players like Pujols/Fielder then when will they? 1B is a huge need with no prospect coming through the organization that looks like a stud. Are we going to be content never offering ‘market value’ for players? (do they want too much money… yes… will someone pay it… yes). So are we always going to be also-rans? What would be the point in trading for a player like Votto unless we were going to offer Fielder-like money?
We were happy to have $20 million per year tied to Wells, but now we would never do such a thing, strange way to contend.
MW: No one was happy to have $20 million per year tied to Wells, why do you think they traded him for such little return? First base is a position that’s generally easy to fill, and you can get a player who will provide 80% of Fielder’s offense for about 25% of his price, if that.
- miniWhy Beckham over Callaspo?
MW: Younger, higher ceiling, might come cheaper.
- PaulWell I think they should go after Fielder. In fact I have no idea why we wouldn’t. It would put our payroll to what? 100M or so? Still far from the supposed limit and miles away from Yanks and Bosox.
If a closer can be considered to be worth 10 or 12M for 60-70 innings of work, then Fielder is easily worth double. For one thing he is a big enough signing to make an impact on attendance. Especially if his bat puts us in a playoff race.
The other advantage he brings is that a good enough batter will make the rest of the lineup better – imagine Bautista getting pitches to hit!
I’d rather see the Jays spend the money on a chance (and yes just a chance) to compete and win now, while holding on to all the talent they have (which I am sure will lead to many chances to win over the next 10 years). In other words with a big signing, you take away a bit of the either/or of competing now vs later. We can compete now and later.
I have a hard time seeing Fielder turn out worse than Vernon and we were able to unload that contract.
- sonsThe Blue Jays are not going after Prince. Another smoke and mirrors show for the Blue Jays about how they are increasing payroll. I wouldn’t doubt if they slashed it even more.
MW: I haven’t seen any smoke or mirrors. The Blue Jays have been swearing up and down that they don’t feel as though they’re in a position to make a big-money move yet.
- DjI never any good at these guess the future debates, but the lineup suggested by Mr Fanthopolous does look good on the surface … just add Fielder, retreat ten paces and wait for the explosion …
But the problem is that there’s an awful lot of very young talent in there that your gambling on being able to perform at or above their track record.
Rasmus, Lawrie, Lind, Arencibia and Thames/Snider are either just out of their rookie year and may have normal struggles ahead as they learn the big league game, or have big questions about their ability to deliver, or both.
There’s good reason to believe (which the possible exception of Lind) that they all have potentially big futures ahead of them, but if you sign Fielder you’re basically saying ‘let’s gamble that every one of them will be as good as we think they’ll be’.
Ultimately, Anthopolous would be doing what JP Riccardi did. Ricciardi took a calculated gamble that his crop of youth plus some expensive hitters and a closer (Rios, Hill, Wells, Ryan, Thomas) was enough to get him to the promised land when combined with a good pitching staff. It wasn’t a terrible gamble, but it didn’t work out. Anthopolous right now can make that gamble, or show a little bit of patience and see if the young talent (Lawrie, Arencibia, Thames, Snider, Rasmus) really is anywhere near as good as we hope it might be, and be in a much more informed position next year. That seems to be the right way to go.
MW: And that seems to be what he’s doing, which is what he always said he would do.
- Benps I realise my grammar fell below the exacting standards expected on this blog in that last ramble. Apologies.
MW: This is true. The first step is being aware of it!
- BenThe good thing with the Jays/AA is that we can always expect the unexpected. Everything can happen and that generates interest/coverage. The organization knows they need to get 1/2 additional big names to show the fans they are for real.
Answering a previous post with the lineup, I’m sure that IF the Jays sign Fielder, Farrell would not be stupid enough tu put him in front of Lawrie, killing Lawrie’s ability to generate doubles/triples.
- JayWould the Jays consider taking on Dunn if it got them Beckham? Possibly flip Lind and somebody for a #2?
MW: I don’t think you can get a #2 starter with Lind being the centrepiece of the deal, and I don’t think they’d have to take on Dunn to get Beckham. You never know, though.
- Stevemichael,
- darrell bishopsome say jeff mathis is a light hitting career journeymen back up catcher.
but i say with his mlb post season career stats of .450 ba and ops of .1150 over 10 games thus far, one of the best clutch hitting playoff catchers in the history of the game……
so there… they can put that in their pipe and smoke it my friend…..
what a steal….
michael,
- darrell bishopneedless to say, tongue firmly planted in cheek with last comment here.
regardless, with his makeup, just what the doctor ordered for a guy that’s probably going to start only 20-25 games (max.) this yr.
and more importantly, if he was good enough for mike s. all these yrs. down in anaheim, well then he’s good enough for me. that’s all i gotta say on the matter.
pretty young (28 or so i think) and pretty athletic for a back stop to be sure (always a nice quality to have as well)
anyway, good talk…
*and keep us posted on the meetings in d town mike. you’re our eyes and our ears down there my friend.
resign johnson, get some pitching @ both ends & I believe we will be in the running.. maybe luck on our side for a change.. getting Prince although would be nice , cuts the grain on everything thats in the future for this young team.. Tooooo much denaro!!!.
- lawrence.I have heard time after time that the Jays are willign to spend money when they are “Close”.
How close do they have to be for them to start throwing some money around. With his track record of healthiness, is it really that big of a risk to go after Prince? Its not like throwing money at BJ Ryan who had one and a half solid years, or Vernon who had one great year then a few slightly abov e average ones.
Getting Fielder would give Bautista some real protection and allow Lind to go back to DH assuming Fielder wants to play defensively.
MW: They have to be close enough that the throwing around of the money gets them to the point where it’s worth it. They’re not a Prince Fielder away from contention right now.
- Brandon FMike. You really don’t think that the Jays would be willing to offer an established tier 1 all star of 27yrs of age a 6/120 or even 7/150? I beg to differ. Considering Beeston’s acknowledgement that perhaps the payroll may jump to $120MM is perhaps a telling sign that the Jays are making a run for the playoffs in 2012 or 2013.
Look, Bautista’s got hat 4 years left of this calibre? What other hitter will hit free agency in those 4 years? Hamilton and Votto. Do they wait and see or give Jose 4 years of guaranteed protection?
My money is the Jays pitch at Fielder and pitch hard. This is one of those El Nino years where the Sox and Yanks are not bidding. Therefore you will pay market value for Fielder and not the Yankees or Red Sox perception of value
MW: You can beg to differ all you like. I’m the one who is actually talking to the people who make the decisions.
- KelvinFrom a lineup perspective, think 2, 3, 4 – Lawrie, JB and Fielder. Unreal.
No way JB walks 132 times if fIelder bats 4th
MW: It’s not happening.
- Kelvinmichael,
your response to 25. up above is certainly fair commentary re: fielder.
curious though what you think about this.
it seems fairly evident that the blue jays are in a good position to make the needed trades for a sp, bona-fide closer, 2nd bagger based on their surplus of good prospects, young players etc… (or perhaps go to fa for just 1 of those needs)
so if that’s the case, is this team a possible contender in your mind with just signing fielder and making those other doable couple of trades for the other spots?
it’s just 1 signing and a couple of swaps michael.
if so, just doesn’t seem like such a stretch all in all…
MW: Again, it depends on the contract. Signing Prince Fielder to an 8 year deal worth $150 million-plus is not a good idea. It also depends on whether or not he’d want to come to Toronto. And if he doesn’t get that kind of deal, he won’t.
- darrell bishopCallaspo brings something other than good defense. hes a switch hitter. the jays should pursue him IMO,
- KevinHey Mike – I know they are not a Prince Fielder away from contention, but wouldn’t his contract fall within the window of when the Jays plan to contend?
MW: Yes, it would.
- Mike