11:20 AM Eastern
FIRST THINGS FIRST - CAST YOUR VOTE FOR TOM CHEEK!!!!! The voice of the Blue Jays, of baseball and of summer in Canada is on the ballot to get onto the final ballot for the Ford C. Frick Award for Broadcasting Excellence, an honour that would get him into the broadcasters’ wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. It’s up to us to make sure he gets his due. Go to www.facebook.com/baseballhall, go to the “poll” section and please vote for Tom. Do it every day - time is ticking away. There are only eight more days of voting remaining and as I write this, Tom is in first place by a slim margin over Jacques Doucet. Thank you.
Now then…….yesterday the Blue Jays made it official, with Alex Anthopoulos making another move to add high-ceiling, controllable talent - dealing Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez to the Mariners for Brandon Morrow.
I mentioned in the earlier post what I think of Morrow, and I think he’s a fantastic gamble to take. Huge power arm with a big curveball, as Alex said very reminiscent of A.J. Burnett. He’s battled some serious control issues (he needs to basically cut his walks per nine innings almost in half to be an ace), but control often comes late for big-time power pitchers. Burnett, for example, walked 4.5 hitters per nine innings through his age 26 season and has walked 3.4 per nine innings in the six seasons since. This after walking 5.4 per nine innings in the minors on the way up.
For his part, Morrow has walked 5.8 batters per nine innings in the major leagues, but over a three-year career that includes a couple of seasons in which he should have been in the minors. The fifth overall pick in the 2006 draft (five spots ahead of Tim Lincecum, which haunted him in Seattle), Morrow threw all of 16 minor-league innings before making it to the big leagues. He was jerked around by the Mariners - going from the ‘pen to the rotation and back and forth, from the majors to the minors and back - and never really being given a chance to develop. The Blue Jays should give him that chance.
It’s noteworthy to look at Morrow’s ten-start stint in AAA late last summer. In the hitter-friendly PCL, he posted an ERA of 3.60 and walked only 3.8 hitters per nine innings. The Jays may well start him back in the PCL next spring - he has options left - but they fully expect him to be part of the rotation. Right now (even though he won’t break camp in that spot), he’s probably their number two starter behind Shaun Marcum.
This guy is a potential gem, front-of-the-rotation type stuff, and the kind of pitcher that you go out and get when you have the opportunity. He could well be the guy who leads the staff when the Blue Jays return to contention, with Kyle Drabek, Brett Cecil and Marcum behind him to form a pretty fearsome foursome.
One would have hoped that Brandon League might have been the guy to finish off those games behind that potentially-great rotation, what with the killer 98 mile-an-hour sinker and whatnot, but he had to go to make this deal happen.
I’ve got a lot of time for League, both on the field and off. On it, he never developed into what the Blue Jays imagined he’d be, but he got jerked around a bit, too, moving from the bullpen to the rotation and back, and up and down from the minors. He was never given a specific role in the big-league ‘pen, but then he never went out and earned one, either.
League’s numbers were staggeringly different this season when he came in from the bullpen (excellent) as opposed to when he took the mound from the dugout (horrifying). If the Mariners - with that ballpark and a fantastic infield (left-side anyway) defense behind him - just give him the ball for the 8th or the 9th and let him go, he’ll have a fantastic year for Seattle.
That’s what the M’s were looking for - help for 2010, a year in which they see a real opportunity to take the A.L. West. League does more for them in 2010 than Morrow does, and the Jays hope Morrow does much more for them in 2011-2014 than League would have.
You always deal the great reliever for the great starter, even if the “great” in both cases has yet to be realized, and may not be.
In adding Johermyn Chavez, the Jays deal what appears to be a solid minor-league talent. Sure, he strikes out too much, but he hit for good power in his second trip through the Midwest League, will take a walk, and is a good outfielder. He’s only 20, and four years hence could be a nice big-leaguer. But I love the fact that Alex is viewing his minor-leaguers as assets to pick up other assets. That’s what they’re there for.
A lot of people are making a very big deal about the fact that Chavez was available in the Rule 5 draft and not taken, as if that shows that he wasn’t thought of as a prospect two weeks ago, but is now. It’s not true. Had Chavez been selected in the Rule 5, he would have had to spend the entire season in the major leagues. Acquired in trade, the Mariners have a year before they have to put him on the 40-man roster and FOUR years before he runs out of options and they have to keep him in the majors. Big, big, big difference.
What’s interesting is the parallel between Chavez and Blue Jays’ draft “busts” Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson. They all played at Lansing in 2008 as 19 year-olds, and here are the numbers:
Chavez - .211/.272/.323 Ahrens - .259/.329/.367 Jackson - .238/.340/.368
In 2009, Ahrens and Jackson moved up a level, to high-A Dunedin. They both struggled terribly, with Ahrens hitting .215/.282/.302 and Jackson hitting .213/.321/.269.
Chavez stayed in Lansing to repeat the lower level and had his break-out .283/.346/.474 season with 21 homers. If he had moved up a level like the other two had, would so many people still be thinking of him as a big-time prospect? And had Ahrens and Jackson repeated low-A, would so many be thinking of them as busts? Probably not.
Morrow may not become the pitcher his ability indicates he can. He may not overcome the injury and control problems he’s already had. But he’s very, very easily worth the gamble.
I’m hopping back into the hosting chair a few times over the next week (it’s Christmas! Bring in the Jews!). This afternoon, I’ll be hosting from 2:00 pm Eastern to 4:00 pm, and Tony LaCava will be one of the guests. I’m trying to get Morrow to fill one of the other spots, but I haven’t heard back from him yet. The first hour will be open phones. I’ve got three hours on Boxing Day, from noon Eastern to 3:00, and Brian Butterfield is confirmed as one of our guests. He might be the only guest - I might try to do something a little different that day. I also have two hours on New Year’s Eve from 2:00 pm Eastern to 4:00. Make sure you tune in, make sure you phone in, and make sure you vote for Tom!
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Thanks for your insight and analysis on this deal. I like what AA is doing so far and how he is conducting himself - primarily with the other MLB GM’s. I think it counts for something when the other GM’s develop a positive view of this organization.
I still give JP credit for making himself so accessable to the fans (via your post game show). Too bad he changed direction in the last year. I hope AA continues his openness with the fans. Perhaps WwAA ??
PS - how about 80’s music trivia in your upcoming holiday slots ?
MW: I’m going to ask Alex to do a weekly show, we’ll see what he thinks, and I’m sure there’ll be time for 80s music trivia.
- TouchemallJoeIs that the Jays future 5 that will make up the rotation?
drabek
morrow
romero
marcum
cecil
MW: I don’t know. I would think that Drabek, Morrow and Cecil will definitely be the top 3. Beyond that, I can see Marcum and Romero, but I can also see Rzepczynski, Henderson Alvarez, Litsch and maybe even Dustin McGowan in there.
- JordanHi Mike,
Looking forward to hearing some baseball talk during the next few days while you fill in.
Wanted to get your feedback on the stuff we’ve been hearing throughout the year (some from J.P.).
The Jays are thin on decent prospect in AA and AAA but their single A team is where we have a bunch of talent. Do we have any blue-chippers/high level prospects that are at the top of many MLB teams holiday wish list?
Any prospects with comparable ceilings to the ones we got in the recent deals?
How would you rank our lower level affiliate teams b/c our higher level teams do not rank so well on MLB reports.
Thanks Mike.
MW: There are no prospects in the Jays’ system with ceilings like Drabek, Wallace and Morrow have, but the Jays have lots of young players in whom teams are interested - mostly the young starting pitchers. I don’t get into the ranking of minor-league teams. It really doesn’t mean anything.
- AKSince we’re talking about a guy who relieved and started this past season, I want to ask you about Robert Bell with Dunedin. He put up very good numbers as both a reliever and starter but never seems to get any pub as a top prospect in the Jays organization. What are your thoughts on him and where do you see him starting the year next year? Will he make a leap to the bigs anytime soon?
MW: I think I have seen Bobby Bell pitch - once, in Spring Training - but I’m not really sure. I do know that he’s on the Jays’ radar, though he’s only been in the pros for a year and a half. I expect him to start this season in AA, and from there, you’re only a heartbeat away from the big leagues. His numbers to this point have been incredible - I’m not sure why he doesn’t have more traction as a prospect.
- TrevorMike, what do you think of inviting him to spring training, and having him and Randy Ruiz competing for the DH job?
MW: I think that will happen.
- Sam McLeanYour point about the optics re: Chavez, Ahrens, and Jackson’s respective value is appreciated.
I wonder if there is strategy in inflating mid-level prospects’ perceived value by consciousy slow-tracking their progression through the system.
MG
MW: You may have just seen that strategy pan out.
- MGHappy Holidays Mike, listening to the show now, its nice to hear a baseball voice on the radio again. I was thinking about an idea to do a tribute to Doc in June when his Phillies are in town, if he is not pitching any of the games what would you think of having him as the “Flashback Friday” guest? I think it would give the fans a chance to give him the ovation he deserves.
MW: I think the Jays will put together a nice tribute to Halladay when the Phillies come to town, for sure.
- ChrisMW - “What’s interesting is the parallel between Chavez and Blue Jays’ draft “busts” Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson. They all played at Lansing in 2008 as 19 year-olds, and here are the numbers:
Chavez - .211/.272/.323 Ahrens - .259/.329/.367 Jackson - .238/.340/.368
In 2009, Ahrens and Jackson moved up a level, to high-A Dunedin. They both struggled terribly, with Ahrens hitting .215/.282/.302 and Jackson hitting .213/.321/.269.
Chavez stayed in Lansing to repeat the lower level and had his break-out .283/.346/.474 season with 21 homers. If he had moved up a level like the other two had, would so many people still be thinking of him as a big-time prospect? And had Ahrens and Jackson repeated low-A, would so many be thinking of them as busts? Probably not.”
But when they were all 18 years old and played in the GCL Chavez put up an 883 ops while Jackson put up a 515ops and Ahrens a .660.
Ahrens and Jackson have not shown any ability to hit at any level. The jump from low A to high A is not so dramatic so as to explain .250 pts of ops.
Jackson and Ahrens have almost zero chance of ever being a decent major league hitter.
MW: I’m amazed that you can speak with such authority about 20 year-olds, looking only at their numbers.
- Jim MaronHey Mike, just a couple things here. Is Morrow considered a better prospect than Drabek? Also, if marcum can rebound from his injury, I believe he can be a front of the rotation type guy. He has the poise, the command, although hes not overpowering. McGowan is obviously a crap shoot. Also, do you think Romero can improve on his rookie season? The Jays are definitely going to need him to. Is there anyone in the minors who you think has a chance at cracking the lineup? Or might show that their MLB ready? Just out of curiosity, what is Travis Sniders value? Would he be as highly regarded as Brett Wallace or Michael Taylor? Thanks Mike
MW: Morrow is a better prospect than Drabek. I don’t see Marcum as the ace of a playoff team, though I definitely think he would be a good number three. Romero has to be better than he was last season, because a 1.52 WHIP doesn’t play in the big leagues on a good team. The only minor-leaguers who have a chance to crack the line-up out of Spring Training are Wallace and Drabek, maybe Zach Stewart. Snider’s value is higher than Wallace’s or Taylor’s - look what he’s already done in the major leagues at 21.
- RockyMike:
Isn’t it true that Chavez was also available in the minor league rounds of the Rule 5 Draft (since he was an A Ball level player )? Wouldn’t that mean that a team could have drafted him into their minors system, and avoided the 40-man roster rule? That would have only cost a team $4000 and no MLB roster spot. Game changer in terms of his value, in my opinion. Not sure if this is accurate or not. Is it?
Never, ever allow Jack Armstrong to sing “on your watch” again. Just kidding, he is pretty funny.
You need Twitter. I had no idea you would be on the air today (very unfortunately), and would have had you tweeted “on FAN590 2-4pm”. No need to constantly update it like some do, you can limit your use of it as a tool to give a “heads up” for things like this, and when new blog posts or comment answers go up. Will you reconsider, for the sake of your loyal listeners/readers?
I really wish AA would sign Aroldis Chapman. That signing would not only put the Jays into a spot where they would have FIVE legit #2 caliber pitchers in Chapman/Drabek/Morrow/Stewart/Marcum, but would REALLY add to the building and renewed excitement that us fans are feeling with the new direction/plan. A powerhouse rotation like this is what they need to take the East sometime between 2011-2014, the obvious window that they are aiming at. How much would YOU spend on signing him? $20-25MM for 6 years of a pitcher who could be our ace for the “big push” isn’t all that much, especially considering the $25MM+ the Jays have shed in payroll since July.
Thanks!
MW: I don’t know if Chavez was available in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft, I’ll check. I can’t imagine he would have been, though. I don’t need Twitter - if you’d subscribed to the blog, you’d have known, right? And didn’t the Fan’s Twitter page say I was hosting? I really feel as though I have enough on my plate with 162 broadcasts plus spring training plus playoffs plus the blog. I would throw Cecil and Alvarez into that mix of starters that you list, though I think it’d be great if they made a real run at Chapman.
- andy mcMike, If I remember correctly, didn’t League almost get traded to Seattle for Raul Ibanez about a year and a half ago? It seems teh M’s have coveted him for some time now. I agree with your assesment of the trade. I wish League had fulfilled his potential with the Jays. I guess I always remember him for his infamous throwing errors in his last game in Baltimore.
I don’t think AA is done yet. I’m sure more moves are coming. I wouldn’t be surprised if Overbay is gone soon.
MW: Nor would I be. I seem to remember that it was Overbay and Frasor in that proposed trade for Ibanez.
- Jim in OhioAny reason Rickey Romero was not mentioned at all in this post?
MW: I guess I think that Morrow, Drabek, Marcum and Cecil are the Jays’ four best starting pitchers.
- Ericdo the jays give mackoy a real shot at winning the shortstop position?
MW: Nope. And not Mike McCoy, either.
- simonMike,
I like the fact that you pointed out Ahrens and Jackson. Although they are definatly not “sure fire” prospect they could very well become good major league players. They both have tools and hopefully they figure it out. They are way to young to give up all hope. I got a chance to watch all three of those guys in Lansing and Jackson impressed me the most. The way he handles himself reminds me of Alex Rios, just full of raw athleticism.
MW: It doesn’t matter. A commenter above said Ahrens and Jackson have no chance to hit major-league pitching.
- DennyHi Mike,
Missed ya!
I was out of country for the good portion of the 2nd half of 2009. Missed a lot of action, especially Hill’s and Lind’s magnificient road to 30+/100+ seasons. Fantastic achievement!
Do you really think 2010 would be the year when Travis Snider would play around 150 games and bat between 6-8? I really think he’s ready to produce a 20HR, 85RBI type season if given 140+ games. It’d be a big disappointment if he’s sent down to Vegas this year.
MW: I would expect that Snider would play around 150 games and hit no lower than 7th. Don’t they have the internet in other countries?
- BeburgHi Mike
Always enjoy your comments. I am very happy with what is going on with the Jays. One pitcher that I know you are high on but didn’t mention is the big “R” — can’t spell his name at this hour. I think he is the sleeper on the staff.
Also when you get Butterfield on — can we PLEASE find out what was going on with Cito and the team last summer? That is the one thing I am concerned about going into 2010.
We need the kind of communication that was going on when Cito took over — talking to everyone — toward the end last year it was Cito sitting alone over in a corner. I remember that picture on TV several times.
All the best to you in 2010.
BTW what is up with Jamie Campbell? Notice he hosted the “goodbye to Halliday” show a few weeks back. Is he still with Sportsnet?
Wish those guys would wise up like the Raptors and have “the game in an HOUR” the day after? Instead of the never-ending repeat sportscasts through the day.
MW: I do like Rzepczynski a lot, but I think those other guys I mentioned have higher ceilings. I’m not going to get into the clubhouse stuff with Butterfield, because he’s not going to say anything about it. Jamie Campbell is definitely still with Sportsnet - he’s going to be a big part of their Olympic coverage.
- Gary ReidMike, on Dec. 19 Richard Griffin “blogged” that the Jays’ deal with Ramon Castro was “not happening”.
In Castro’s profile on MLB.com he is still being shown as a free agent.
Can you give us an update on his status? Did the FA deal fall through?
MW: I can’t. I have to say I haven’t given Ramon Castro more than a minute’s thought over the past couple of weeks. I’ll look into it, though.
- NormIt is blatantly obvious. A promising starter for a promising reliever is always a good deal. That’s how most people see it. I personally am very excited because I don’t even think that League is a promising reliever. The only consistency in his game is that he struggled whenever the team increased his role. He never had a chance to close but he couldn’t handle 8th or 7th inning roles with consistency. I can’t remember him ever being higher then 4th on the depth charts. Besides the closer B.J. Ryan before he his game went south the team used Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson and Jason Frasor in more meaningful situations. The fact that League’s numbers were staggeringly different when coming from the bullpen rather then the dugout is an embarrassment. Is he that mentally incompetent? I don’t want a guy like that being a closer. What happens when his team asks him to perform a 4 out save? Does he completely fall apart? League’s numbers last season indicate that he has some potential for success because he kept his walks down but I believe he will struggle mightily when his role is increased in Seattle. Numbers don’t always tell the story as even a Shawn Camp will look good when asked to pitch in less meaningful situations but your point of League struggling when entering from the dugout suggests two possible things. Either the problem is in his head or his struggles from the dugout are pure coincidence. The future will tell but I’ll take the guy who will have to come out from the dugout 5 or 6 times a game and not immediately melt down.
MW: You always take the starter over the reliever. A little strong with your shots on League, though, aren’t you? Mentally incompetent?
- DomenickBest of the season to you Mike.
A question for you relative to something you stated in your blog regarding the Jays “proposed” starters in another year.
You said that behind Morrow, there could be Kyle Drabek, Brett Cecil and Marcum. What about Ricky Romero ? Or have I missed something ?
Just curious.
JWA
MW: You haven’t missed anything. I think the four guys I mentioned would make a fearsome foursome. Not that I don’t like Romero, I just think the other guys are better.
- Forever Leaf FanMike.
What is the status as of today, Dec. 25, 2009 of Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan? Will we see them back by the All-Star break? Will we see McGowan pitch again at all?
Does anyone think that Brandon Morrow is the same guy who plays for the Dallas Stars, knowing how hockey-obsessed people are in Toronto and the surrounding area?
Vote for Tom folks.
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: Litsch may be back by the all-star break, but that would be a little early. Regardless, he won’t be back to being himself until Spring Training 2011, I’d say, and given when the Blue Jays will be in the standings in ‘10, there’s no need to rush him back - same as Shaun Marcum this past season. McGowan is a complete and total mystery at the moment. He could be ready to start the season, he could never pitch again. And the Drunks beat you to the Brendan Morrow joke.
- PeterMW: Also, if you look at the reality of the situation, no one in the A.L. East is or has been for the last dozen years (with one exception) except the Yankees and Red Sox.
I don’t think an ‘Orioles suck and until recently the Rays sucked so it doesn’t matter that we suck. None of us has a chance’ defense works. It’s not just that the Jays haven’t been to the playoffs in the last 15 years. (And both the Orioles and the Rays have.) The Jays haven’t been near the playoffs for the last 15 years. If I recall correctly, the last time the team played meaningful games in September–maybe–was back in the late 90s one time when the Jays battled the Sox for the WC and dropped out at least a month before the end of the season. That’s upwards of 10 years of meaningless baseball in a city starved for sports success.
That, I hope, is going to change sometime within the next two or three years. I think AA is going the right way about changing it. The Morrow move is a good one and the guy does have a huge potential upside. League has done well out of the ‘pen for the team, but we’ve got other bullpen pitchers, and maybe Morrow might work out well once he’s away from all those You Aren’t Lincecum fans in Seattle.
MW: The defense isn’t “the Orioles suck and the Rays suck so it doesn’t matter that (the Jays) suck.” The defense is - maybe there’s a reason why the Orioles and Rays haven’t been close to the playoffs in the last dozen years (with one exception). Yes, the Rays won the division in 2008 - but that’s the only season in their history in which they’ve finished closer than the 19 games out that they were in ‘09. The Orioles were in first place way deeper into the season than the Jays a few years back, but haven’t finished within 20 games of first place in this century. Those things are kind of significant.
- isabella reyesMike,
Not sure the comment about AJ walking 4.5 or whatever it was at age 26 is fair. He threw 23 innings, and ended up having TJ Surgery that year. At age 25 he cut the walks to below 4BB/9 and still had a 9K/9 which is important to keep in mind, since he had a K:BB ratio greater than 2. Which is where you want to be.
As far as AJ at a similar point in his career, from age 22-25 he had a 4.3 BB/9, so the comparison between Morrow & AJ is a bit off.
That being said, Morrow’s biggest problem is his lack of a curve/change. He owns RH batters, and has a respectable K:BB vs them (as well as HR rate). Which is likely thanks to his fastball/slider combo. But he gets ravaged vs lefties, and has a near 1:1 K:BB along with a brutal HR rate. Likely due to a lack of a curve/change as mentioned (since LH batters wouldn’t be fooled by the slider from a RHP).
So what this comes down to is that for Morrow to be a successful starter, he needs a good changeup/curveball to get lefties out. Otherwise he’s destined to be a reliever. So I’m hoping the Jays will work on improving his change/curve.
MW: There’s no question that lefties kicked the crap out of Morrow in 2009, and in his rookie season of ‘07 as well, but he did hold them to a .198 batting average in ‘08. He needs to work on his control, and he needs to continue to develop his secondary pitches - that’s never been in doubt. But if he didn’t, he wouldn’t have been available in exchange for Brandon League.
- MarkHello Mike,
2 questions, I read on Blue Jays.com that said at the end of a story quote “Don’t Be surprized if Anthopoulos makes another big trade before spring training”. I wonder if you know more about that and if he is interested in anyone that he has been targeting for a wile. I hope he gets a young SS for the future who can play for the Jays in 3 years. Also wanted to know if Bautista will be the starting LF this season. When we was the starter in September, he hit 7 homeruns. Were will he fit in.
MW: Spellcheck, please - it’s amazing that out of all that, you actually spelled “Anthopoulos” correctly. Well done, I guess. I don’t think for a second that Alex is done dealing. He still would like to move Lyle Overbay for an asset and to make room for Brett Wallace, and he has a surplus of young pitching that he could move in a youth-for-youth deal to fill a hole. There’s no question that he’s looking for a young shortstop. If Bautista is a full-timer, it’ll be in right field, with Travis Snider in left. He actually hit eight homers in September, and two more in October.
- DavidMike Some thoughts about the June draft I find it hard to believe that clubs follow the slotting system and seem hesitant to pay what it takes to sign players that they’ve spent so much time and money to scout in the top rounds, players that should be blue chippers Smells like collusion to me Now the Jays are saying that they have allocated 16 millon for this draft Is that a high number? Doesn’t it sound crazy that teams love a player enough to draft him but don’t sign him because of money Even if you get the top picks back the following year you’ve missed out on a player you’ve scouted and a year of development that you’ll never get back With this amount of money to spend does this mean the Jays are ready to do what it takes to sign their top picks Or maybe they don’t get to replace the top picks in 2010 with picks in 2011 I understand there are many players taken so slotting in the later rounds supplys a system to follow I’m sure the Jays have got a great blueprint layed out now Draft and sign the top talent, develop them, keep the ones that make the big club, and add free agents to compliment them Boston has shown it works What do you think?’
MW: I think you need to incorporate the period into your writing. As far as the collusion thing, take off the tinfoil hat. It’s only collusion if everyone is doing it - I doubt that certain teams would collude to allow certain other teams access to the best talent in the draft. As for the $16 million thing, it’s not true. Baseball Operations as a department has a specific total budget.
- TerryHey Mike, Was Edwin Encarnacion really as bad defensively a third baseman as advertised because I didn’t think he was that bad. If he can hit 20 home runs and have an on base of .340 wouldn’t that fine for a stop gap plan. Isn’t that all Encarnacion was brought in for anyways. If I remember correctly Zach Stewart was the centerpiece of the Troy Glaus trade. What you think of Josh Roenicke? He has some serious gas but lacks control and is getting to that age when a player doesn’t improve as much.
MW: Roenicke was a late convert to pitching, so he gets a bit of a pass on development time. Encarnacion was not as bad defensively as advertised. He’s no Scott Rolen (or even Jose Bautista), but he can still play third base in the major leagues.
- Domenickheyyaa Mike,
Ive been thinking about the next look of the Toronto Blue Jays in the upcoming years, and I’ve put together this potential Lineup for when the Blue Jays can start competing again.
SP Rickey Romero
SP Dustin Mcgowan/Zach Stewert
SP Brett Cecil
SP Kyle Drabek
SP Shaun Marcum/Brandon Morrow
RP Tim Collins
RP Jesse Carlson
RP Chad Jenkins
RP ???
RP Robert Bell/Bobby Ray
RP Scott Richmond/Mark Rzepchinski/Jesse Litch
RF Eric Thames/Kenny Wilson
2B Aaron Hill
LF Travis Snider
1B Brett Wallace
DH Adam Lind
3B Kevin Ahrens
SS Justin Jackson
CF Vernon Wells
C Travis D’Arnoud/J.P. Arincebia/Brian Jaralomen/Carlos Perez
Obviously Mike, insert free agents and trade acquisitions here and there, for players that don’t work out, but overall the above lineup is what I personally think the blue jays will look like when they are competing, and it looks fairly impressive. The Blue Jays have potentialy 5-6 30HR guys in that line-up, in Hill, Lind,Snider, Wallace, Ahrens, and Wells.
Your thoughts?
MW: I don’t think the team will look even remotely like that - especially given all the deals that Alex has made to this point in his tenure. What he’s trying to do is build a very good young core, and so far that core includes Morrow/Drabek/Stewart/Alvarez as starters and Lind/Hill/Wallace/Snider as hitters. The rest of the team will be built around those guys, with pretty much everybody else being a moving part until that high-ceiling talent is brought in at that position, with the exception of Wells, with whom they’re stuck through 2014. It’s highly, highly optimistic to imagine that all of Collins, Jenkins, Bell, Ray, Thames, Wilson, Ahrens and Jackson will be able to be contributors in the big leagues. And Romero is your ace?
- JazzAlex Anthopoulos has been on the job for 11 weeks and 2 days and managed to pull off 2 trades involving good young players that will give the Jays a chance to win moving forward..This is the type of team that we were expecting 8 seasons ago..
You don’t need a 150 million dollar payroll to win in the bigs..
We didn’t see these trades made often enough during the 413 weeks of the Riccardi era..This guy tried to buy a team and got nowhere..Imagine where the Jays might be right now without the Wells contract ..
Riccardi may have gotten a couple of great prospects for Wells or Rios or both..Perhaps Chone Figgins?..I do remember his name in a rumor involving Wells..
Wells was coming off an outstanding season in 2006.. He hit .303 with 32 homers, 106 RBIs, a .357 OBP, 40 doubles and 17 stolen bases. Lets not forget Wells was one of the best defensive guys in CF..
But Riccardi decided to bust open the vault and offer the worst contract in baseball to him..Oh ya that was Godfreys fault..The president-not-involved-in baseball-decisions-guy..I guess it’s only proper to blame the president when it supports your argument..
MW: Are we seriously going to have to go over this argument again?
- ray bMike…
a) Had an interesting discussion over Christmas with my brother-in-law who happens to be a Yankee fan ( I know, but he’s a good husband to my sister)..he was surprised that the Phillies’ fans were kind of 50/50 over acquiring Doc but losing Cliff Lee..my rationale was that Philly fans remember the great start Lee got off to and his Game One shutout against his Yanks and that Philly fans don’t really care (or even remember) about Doc’s one-hitter and other dominating games vs. his N.Y. team, which in comparison to Lee’s games, were somewhat meaningless standings-wise. But that in no way diminishes what Roy did. Any thoughts or opinions?
b) I noticed in your post that Romero had a WHIP of 1.52…After seeing Steely Dan back in Nov. (brilliant show) and having them stuck in my head somewhat, do you think the P.A. guy at Rogers Centre could someone tweak their famous song and come up with: “Rickey, PLEASE Lose That Number.”
MW: A - I think Philly fans were sold on Lee and don’t really think that anyone is enough of an upgrade on him to be worth what they gave up.
- chris m.Mike
Thank-you for doing a great job of covering the jays on the fan. I have a question how can the Red Sox sign two type A free agents Macro and Lackey when they have to give up draft picks a first and a second for the free agent when they only have one of each.
thanx
MW: Well, obviously you can’t give up more draft picks than you have. The truth is, the signing team only forfeits one draft pick per Type A free agent that it signs - the other one is created out of thin air as part of a sandwich round between the first and second rounds of the draft. The Red Sox lose their first-rounder for signing Lackey and their second for signing Scutaro, and the Angels and Jays each also get a sandwich pick for their trouble.
- TrentHey Mike
the yanks are in need of a leftfielder, and Cashman has stated they will not be after a big name/big contract like Holliday or Bay. Cashman also stated that the yanks won’t resign Damon and may look to the trade market to fill the spot. Not to say that Lind won’t repeat his numbers from 2009, but do you think the jays would deal him for a package like Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes and Arodys Vizcaino? Who says no to this deal?
MW: I wonder who says no to it, it’s a good question. If I were Alex, I’m not sure I would.
- rickMW: It doesn’t matter. A commenter above said Ahrens and Jackson have no chance to hit major-league pitching.
lol, alright so your telling me there is no point to follow their progress the next 3 or 4 years they have to develop? Thanks, what was I thinking.
- DennyHey Mike,
Great Blog…Long time reader first time writer…
I was wondering about the prospects of signing Erik Bedard? He’s a guy who makes his home relatively close to Toronto, and has a pretty high ceiling in terms of talent.
Wouldn’t it make sense for AA to take a shot at signing to a reasonable incentive laden deal? There’s risk but it could pay off huge. AA said he needs to take risks that could potentially pay off huge since the Jays are in the AL East…
MW: Bedard would be a solid risk to take, but I doubt he’d be interested in signing more than a one-year deal, which does the Jays no good (except perhaps in the trade market in July). I have no idea where Bedard makes his home, only that he was born near Ottawa.
- Jason ChinI’ve been voting for Tom Cheek almost everyday. So far there is only 360 votes for him. Where is everybody??!! Please vote for Tom!!
MW: See above! And keep voting!
- shigMike,
Bit of a late few questions, but with the red sox signing lackey does this mean that for the second year in a row our type A free agent gets bumped down to a comp and second round pic, or whatever it is that you get when the lesser of two type A free agents get signed? also who do you see having the most power out of these three, Snider Lind or Wallace and can you see Lind regularly putting up 900+ ops seasons?
MW: A - Yes, it does, and 2 - I’m going to say Snider and yes.
- RandyRe: Comment 27..
Yea your right..It’s a moot argument..I’ve been somewhat acrimonious towards Riccardi but he is gone now and I respect your opinion..
Dustin McGowan is a mystery but the Jays signed him to a contract in December so that means there is a chance he will be around this year..
What do you do with this guy?..He has such good stuff that you can’t get rid of him (see Chris Carpenter) but after drafting him almost 10 years ago, how much more money and time do you invest?..I can’t help but to wonder if his diabetic condition has delayed his progress..
Will Sean Henn make this team?
MW: With McGowan you wait and see and expect nothing. Anything you get in a bonus. And no.
- ray bI wish baseball would get rid of the divisions, make the schedule balanced and just have the top 4 teams in the league make the playoffs with one playing 4 and 2 vs 3. It was the way it used to be and it would get rid of the unfairness without much disruption. I am not for an extra round in the playoffs but was intrigued by the idea of adding a 5th team and having them play the 4th team in a one game showdown for the wildcard. I also think to wildcard team should only get one home game in the first round. Thoughts?
MW: You’re a good listener!
- Kevin