1:20 AM Eastern
Paul Beeston referred to it as a closing of the books on one era and the opening of another. Roy Halladay is a Philadelphia Phillie and the Blue Jays get two top-flight stud prospects plus another first-rounder who’s a long way off in Travis D’Arnaud.
I put together a retrospective on Halladay’s Blue Jay career for the Fan590, with some radio highlights of his career (including a few calls by the late, great Tom Cheek), and you can listen to it here:
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There’s no doubt he was one of the greatest ever to wear the Jays’ uniform – perhaps the greatest – and could very well be the first homegrown Blue Jay to make it to the Hall of Fame. There’s no overstating Halladay’s ability and what he meant to the team, the city and the fans, but there was also no question that he had to go.
So what do I think of the return? Well, take a look at the last three major trades involving a big-time stud starting pitcher. For Cliff Lee, the Indians got four solid prospects, led by Jason Knapp – a big-armed second-rounder who was pitching well in A-ball at 19. The other three had all been top prospects the years before, but had slipped back. All of Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson were close to being major-league ready (and Carrasco and Marson played in the bigs this past season, with limited to no success), but their stars were all fading when they were dealt. It doesn’t mean they won’t amount to anything, but it does mean the shine was off all of them.
For CC Sabathia, the Indians got themselves one legitimate big-time stud bat in prospect Matt LaPorta. He was the most sought-after minor-league hitter out there and will start for the Tribe this season. While he’s not eligible for rookie-of-the-year in 2010, he could really hit the ground running. They also got another former first-rounder in Zach Jackson, 25 at the time, but it’s been a long time since he’s been thought of as a guy who was going to have a real impact in the majors. The other players to come to Cleveland were Michael Brantley, a good (but powerless) bat and a real speedster – he has a chance to be the Tribe’s leadoff guy for a while, and 31st-rounder Rob Bryson, who got hurt and pitched rookie ball last year at 21. LaPorta and Brantley are very nice pieces.
The Twins got killed in dealing Johan Santana to the Mets, getting back Phillip Humber as the big prize. The former third overall pick just signed with Kansas City as a minor-league free agent. Also coming over were injured second-rounder Kevin Mulvey, Endy Chavez-clone Carlos Gomez (perhaps with less bat) and Deolis Guerra, who looked like a nice piece, and still might be, and who was having moderate success in high-A ball at 18. Guerra reached AA this year at 20, with good peripherals for New Britain, and had better wind up being the big prize in that deal.
So what do we have? For Lee, one very promising arm, a decent catcher and two guys whose star had fallen hugely, but who had upside. No first-rounders. For Sabathia, one super-stud, one nice piece and two fillers. One first-rounder and another who had already lost his status as a prospect. For Santana, one hopefully nice piece, one decent glove and two gamble arms. One first-rounder.
For Halladay? Two super-studs in Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace and a young catching gamble with great upside in Travis D’Arnaud. First-rounders all, and the oldest one just 23. Wallace was the most sought-after minor-league bat out there, just as LaPorta was a couple of years ago, with Oakland having demanded him as the key piece in the Matt Holliday trade in July. Drabek was a highly-sought-after arm, so much so that the Phillies deemed him untouchable in their negotiations with J.P. Ricciardi for Halladay in July. D’Arnaud, who is only 20, is seen as a good catch-and-throw guy who Alex Anthopoulos described as having “easy power” and who is a year removed from hitting .305/.367/.464 at two levels of A-ball as a 19 year-old.
Did the Jays outdo the Indians (twice) and the Twins? It certainly seems that way, and they did it while dealing a player who is older and who had a gun to their heads in the form of a no-trade clause that he was willing to use.
Does the fact that it appears as though (given all the information we have TODAY – not in 2014) the Blue Jays did very well for themselves make a lot of their fans happy right now? I doubt it.
The truth of the matter is that arguably the best pitcher in the game is gone, off to the National League where he’ll go something like 28-1, 1.95 in leading the Phils to their third straight NL East title and perhaps their third straight World Series appearance, and Jays fans have nothing they know about to show for it.
Will Drabek be the Opening Day starter in 2010? Of course not. He’s likely to start the season in AA New Hampshire. Will Wallace be the clean-up hitter and first baseman on Opening Day? Not a chance. I mean, he could make the team out of Spring Training, but that’s a longshot, and if he does chances are he’ll be batting ninth and won’t be playing against lefties. How many callers will ask me about D’Arnaud next season, wondering why he isn’t in the bigs yet? The over/under is 7,000.
This is a trade that is going to require patience, but it’s a trade the likes of which is rarely seen. A great player goes, and a pair of fantastic prospects come back, with another high-ceiling body who isn’t there just to fill things out and make it look good. It could be akin to the Bartolo Colon deal, on which Tony LaCava worked and in which Cleveland got back Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee – all of whom turned out to be stars. It could be like the Erik Bedard trade, in which the Orioles got young studs Adam Jones and Chris Tillman as well as closer George Sherrill, who they wound up flipping for a couple more prospects.
When will we know? Three or four years, maybe, but given the fact that Roy Halladay was holding all the cards, this was a great deal for the Blue Jays, and a great start to Alex Anthopoulos’ career as a G.M. Beeston said it opens the books on another era, and it’s one in which the Blue Jays will be built around pitchers like Drabek, Brett Cecil, Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Zach Stewart, Marc Rzepczynski, Henderson Alvarez, Josh Roenicke, Daniel Farquhar and maybe even Tim Collins, and hitters like Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider and Brett Wallace. Some of these, and some others, will be your favourite Blue Jays in the next three years or so and the Jays are hoping there are enough stars in there to form the core of their next great set of teams, echoing the 1985-1993 clubs. Think of 2010 as 1982, I guess.
One more thing, and it’s about Roy Halladay. It’s fantastic when athletes who have been built up by the media actually live up to it. Halladay will be either 36 or 37 when his new contract with the Phillies expires, depending on the vesting option. When the contract does expire, it will be the first time in Halladay’s career that he will have been a free agent, assuming he doesn’t sign yet another extension. Is there another all-star level player in the game who has forgone free agency three times in order to sign early contract extensions? He has yet to even throw a pitch in a season after which he’ll be a free agent. It truly is an amazing thing. It’s not about the money for him, though he’s obscenely wealthy. It’s about loyalty and commitment and now, it’s about the ultimate prize. Halladay wasn’t always the most accessible guy in the clubhouse, but he was always polite when he didn’t have time to be interviewed, and when he did give you time, he didn’t do it Scott Rolen-style, with one eye on the clock and always giving you the impression he’d rather be doing something else.
I’ll miss having him around, but not as much as I’ll miss getting to see him pitch every five days, and I wish him nothing but the best of luck as a Phillie. Hopefully, if he ever actually does become a free agent, he’ll come back home to play out his last few years back here where it all started – in a rotation headed up by Kyle Drabek, throwing to Travis D’Arnaud, with Brett Wallace at first and batting clean-up.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Brilliant job, Mike. This is your best work, sir. Keep up the fine work.
- T from NY1) Why does everyone who lists the Jays’ good young pitchers of the future – such as you in this post – fail to mention a) Chad Jenkins; b) Jesse Litsch
2) Who do you think has more offensive upside, Snider or Wallace?
MW: 1 – Because Jenkins is still a long way away, and hasn’t done anything at the professional level yet and because nobody really bought Litsch – he’s the kind of guy who is always going to have to prove himself. 2 – Wallace, but it’s close.
- Toddhey look at it this way
for the next 3 years we can be cheering on the jays as they start coming into their own and we can cheer on doc and the phillies as they go about giving doc his due in the playoffs…
sounds like win win to me
as i said before it’s exciting times to be a blue jay fan
congratulations to AA on an excellent job
looking forward to what else he’s got
up his sleeve
february just got a little closer
little d
- little dWhat are the chances wallace sticks at 3rd?
MW: Zero.
- AndrewSo for years the only non pitcher prospect who could be a star was Arencebia……Now we trade for a catcher. What happens to Arencebia?
MW: D’Arnaud is a good three years behind Arencibia. Lots could happen over that span.
- DennisM-Dub,
Nice close to the entry, I enjoyed that.
I’ve had a man crush on Brett Wallace for a couple years, I was really happy to hear we flipped for him. I guess theres no chance of him being a major league 3B eh?
MW: Not with the Blue Jays.
- slobberfaceI think it’s a great trade and forever bashing it relax we dont know anything about prospects and all the scouts are saying its a great trade so lets just enjoy it. Oh and for the people who keep worrying about the six million is it your six million stop worrying about it. Mike how good can this Wallace be? 310 avg 35 homers 120 rbi’s capable
MW: Capable? Sure. Depends on how many guys get on base in front of him.
- DarrenMike,
Would you like to see the Jays make a move now for a more veteran SP to help stabilize the rotation?
MW: I think that could only help, so long as it doesn’t cost them much. A deal like the Orioles made for Kevin Millwood would be great.
- AnthonyI think people put a lot of emphasis on winning and losing trades right after the trade. Who could argue that a team who got Roy didn’t win?
This trade feels different as a Jays fans in that the typical naysayers are conspicuous by the silence right now.
Your write up is the best so far and furthers my belief, that all things considered, AA and the Jays made out pretty well. Now, we have yet to see our new three play an inning for us, and there’s the whole potential injury thing blah blah blah, but we know we’re rebuilding and this seems like a good start.
The best part is, I don’t have to cheer for the Redsox or Yankees once every 5 days and I could proudly wear a Phillies cap.(they’ve done favours for us in the past!)
Now, bringing these three guys sure makes it look like we’ll have to make some more moves by next Summer. Do you agree and what do you think are likely roster moves?
Enjoy your holiday, I can’t spell it properly so I won’t try.
Ian.
MW: There’s no proper way to spell it in English, because it’s a Hebrew word. I think there are lots of moves left, but in specifics, they really only have to deal with one corner outfield spot (if they don’t want to give it to Bautista, which may be the way they’re leaning), until and unless Overbay gets dealt.
- Ian JThere’s a touch of Kumbaya in your last ‘graph. Yes, we got top-flight prospects. But they’re prospects. They may work out, they may not. However, even if they do, the club has got to figure out a way of keeping the fans coming back in the interim. I’m not sure I have any idea how they could do that. Dan Shulman on The Fan yesterday said he’d never heard so many season-ticket holders say they may not be coming back next season. To say we’re disenchanted is an understatement. I know a lot of Jays fans, and all of us are fed-up and feeling mutinous. We understand that Halladay had to go. We were prepared for him to go. We know it’s a (fairly) new administration. But it seems like the club has been spinning its wheels into the mud for the last many years. This isn’t just aimed at our old bete noir JP. The whole front office is to blame for the mess. I’ll cut AA some slack, since he was the assistant. But Paul Godfrey, JP Ricciardi and whoever Godfrey reported to at Rogers have to carry the can for bad decisions, trades to improve the team not made at the deadlines of mediocre seasons where it was obvious the team were not going to make the playoffs, cast-offs from other teams coming to make their messes over here, panicky big-ticket items that were overly frangible, horrendous contracts. And, finally, promises, promises, promises. None of which were ever fulfilled. Good teams were assembled but never good enough. The farm team in terms of position players was weak and getting weaker so the club was forced to go the free agent route and I can’t think of one signing–although there must have been one!–that worked out.
All this mismanagement has left us feeling like idiots for the large amount of money we have shelled out over the years to see our team become more and more of a laughing-stock. As it stands we are a farm team for the bigger clubs. The Yankees have done well out of us and now it’s the Phillies’ turn. I’ve cared passionately about the Jays for years and I still do. I’ll be there next season. But I think Rogers have to do something, anything, to make amends to the fans. A free game or two. A nice deal on a Dove Bar. Cut-rate parking for the game. A full-page apology in the Star and the Globe!
MW: A nice deal on a Dove bar they could probably do, but I don’t think we’re going to see any amends-making from the Rogers people. I can’t agree with a lot of the things you’ve said, though. A laughing stock? This has been a top-10 MLB team over the last four years (yes, including 2009).
- isabella reyesGreat job Mike, from start to finish I really enjoyed reading this and I will miss Halladay as well but he deserves to pitch in October and the Jays were not heading in that direction. As far as who the jays got its great I love the prospects we got back, and if Halladay does get his ring with the Phillies then AA better start planning to resign him in 2015(I know that his option will vest his work ethic is second to none) and maybe he will finish his career in Toronto and be the first Blue jay to make it to the Hall, Good Luck Roy we will miss you. June 25th to 27th people mark it down the Phillies are in town.
- RoyceIt’s really hard not to judge AA right now on this trade but I am still anxious to see what he will do in the next 2 months or so before catchers/pitchers report.
There are too many “moving parts” to the Jays right now because I think they can “dump” Downs/Accardo/Overbay/Camp and possibly Encarnacion which could/would represent a lot of money depending on who they move. Do you think they may strip this team down or “pretend” to compete by keeping these guys? Maybe keeping these guys, letting them go next season as free agents will get the Jays more via draft picks than what they get now for them?
*Some food for thought: The Jays will pay BJ Ryan more money not to pitch for them than what the Jays will pay for who will pitch for them this coming season (the entire pitching staff for 2010 as of right now even including arbitration costs).
MW: Cool. I don’t think they have to dump Accardo, I don’t think Camp has much value in trade and I know Encarnacion doesn’t have any. I think they’re trying to deal Overbay, but that Downs might have more value at the deadline than he does now, given his injury-riddled 2009.
- JoachimMike,
As you have pointed out, I think this truly is the best possible outcome considering the circumstnces and I am completely happy and optimistic about the future of the Jays. What do you think is in store for the positions and needs for the team going forward. It goes without saying that Overbay will be dealt in the off season if possible. What happens then? Is Encarnacion going to stay at third or do they try to convert him to a left fielder and play Jonny mac at third? Possible Lind/Wallace DH/1B. If Wallace is not the 3B going forward what do you see happening at that position? Will Ahrens come back into the limelight?
Thank you Mike
MW: Encarnacion in left and Johnny Mac at third? I’m sorry, I think my head just exploded.
- JasonThanks for this, it makes me feel better. Onwards & upwards. I subscribe to MLB extra innings & you can bet I’ll be watching Phila. every 5th day. I am very thankful Roy didn’t go to the DamnYankees or Boston!!
- nancy thurstonVery nice and well done tribute to Doc, Mike. I agree 25+ wins for him are most certainly in the making.
If your a true Jays fan you gotta love the deal as it is and be patient as the future is looking brighter all the time. As such, it is important the fans show support for what AA is doing and for the players by going to the ball park.
If anyone lost out on this deal it was Philly in my opinion. Only based on the fact they lost prospectives in the original Lee deal with the Indians. Can’t get those back. Of course most certainly the crown jewel overall is Doc and the Phillies, as they say, “got their man”. The Yanks are probably breathing a bit easier knowing both Lee and Doc are not in Philly right now.
Getting Wallace in on the deal is amazing for the Jays. He will tear the cover off the ball in MLB sooner than we think. Best of all Cito won’t get a chance to platoon him in 2011.
Kinda neat in the way the whole thing went down with who is involved as to teams.
Phillies – with the Gillick connection.
Mariners – entered the league at the same time as the Jays.
Oakland – still got the JP connnection as a lot trades and pick ups came via them during his term in Toronto.
Not that any of that means a whole lot – just an observation on my part.
Been a great off season for you so far Mike and you have reported it magnificently, as usual with your insight, well informed information and educated reporting.
Thank you.
- Bob (from Burllington)It is early to discuss the 2010 version of the Jays I guess in any depth but I am wondering why Sportsnet didn’t hire Jerry Howarth to do the TV broadcasts of the games. Was it because he didn’t want to, he wasn’t capable or they wanted someone with a higher profile? Truthfully, I like Jerry on the radio myself because he paints a great picture of what is happening throughout the game. What do you think Mike? Thanks
MW: I have no idea about anything that happened with the TV broadcast.
- Mike Leroux - LondonI read you every day, and have never commented, but thanks for such a well thought out and well written analysis of the trade. And a very fitting tribute to Doc.
MW: Thanks, Cappy! You’re a good man.
- C.VidsMike, I too agree that this was a good deal for the Jays. Of course you could never have gotten what Halladay is really worth. Another prospect would have been nice. Also, Wallace verses Taylor? Can you comment on that decision? I would have thought the Jays needed just as much depth in the outfield as in the infield at this point.
MW: See above.
- AlexMike,
I too will miss Doc and will wish him well. I will do my best to get to toronto and for the phillies series and buck the trend of booing former Toronto players and cheer my guts out for Doc. I might even bring a sign to remind Doc that this trade is just a loan because when he goes into the HOF I want him in a Jays hat.
One question, what is Carlos Ruiz up to? I thought I heard him saying he was going to play winter ball to learn LF. Do all these goings on result in him being squeezed back to minors?
MW: I’m assuming you mean Randy Ruiz. The Blue Jays don’t really see him as that great an asset.
- JWHi Mike
- Richard from ARI very much enjoyed your tribute to Doc and I like your prediction above about him returning. I also predict that the Jays will give him another shot at a title when he does return.
I think we can make 2 more predictions for 2010. Doc will get the NL Cy Young and start the AS game for the NL
I really like this deal too. I like how you’ve framed it by looking at recent big-arm deals. My question is are they going to go all the way with this and deal Overbay, and EEE? Let’s just see all the kids. Thanks.
MW: See above.
- NeilHi Mike,
Do you know if Roy’s “no-trade” clause was simply a product of his 10 and 5 rights or if this was actually negotiated into his last extension in `06?
I don’t remember hearing anything about a “no-trade” at the time of that extension or at anytime up until last July. Unlike Vernon’s “no-trade” which has been much talked about since he signed.
MW: Halladay has always had the no-trade in the contract, but yes, he was also a 10-and-5 guy.
- JamieGreat comment Mike. Totally agree with your analysis irrespective of the emotional impact. One thing I did want to question is the situation with Wallace. Can you not see him making the roster at #7 maybe # 6 in the line-up and playing first base? The guy can rake and his line isn’t bad, .305/.384/.475 at all. This shows of course not great power but he certainly has a good eye. Offensively I’d say he is close to a finished product. Your thoughts?
MW: I think he’s close to a finished product, too, but I’m really reluctant to hand him over to Cito.
- JaimeCouple questions with respect to the Halladay trade:
1) Does the acquisition of Wallace and his apparent move over to First Base mean that David Cooper’s stock has fallen somewhat, or even sharply?
2) On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being outstanding, how would you grade the Jays stable of young talent going forward, what with Snider, Hill, Romero, Wallace, Drabek, Lind, Marcum et al?
3)Not sure how others feel, but I think this Jays team will be one to be reckoned with in 2011 and beyond. How do you feel?
MW: 1 – Cooper’s stock was never as high as Wallace’s but yes, it has fallen. 2 – 7 or 8, including a bunch of guys you didn’t mention. 3 – The same.
- CamThere’s not much more to be said; greatest Blue Jay ever, class guy and family man and at least we don’t have to endure him pitching against us in our division.
Plus, it’s not like there’s much of a chance we’ll see him in the playoffs…
Good luck Roy, and at the expense of the Yankees or Red Sox, I hope you get your ring.
PS
- GaryPLEASE remember to go into the hall as a Blue Jay; not a sure thing Jays fans, if he wins a World Series or two among 4 great years in Philly – the cheese clogs your mind!
Great post.
- Ryan McCallenWell said Mike. I hope we see him in June (sitting in the dugout of course).
- SandyHey Mike,
Just wondering, if anything do you see the jays doing to fill out their roster for this coming year? trades or FA? Do you see them trying to pick up a Vet. Pitcher? trying to trade Overbay?
Thanks
MW: See above.
- Mike BMike.
I agree with you that this deal had to be done, does it make any easier to accept. I just want to say thanks to Roy for 11 wonderful years as a Blue Jay. Most of the times I went to Skydome/Rogers Centre when he pitched were my most enjoyable times going to Jays games, and I’m definitely going to be there when the Phillies play a series in June, I believe it is.
With the Jays getting Travis D’Arnaud in the deal, what does that say about what they think of JP Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman? I assume John Buck and Raul Chavez for the #1 catching jon in spring training.
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: D’Arnaud is well behind Arencibia and Jeroloman, developmentally.
- PeterMike,
I like this trade and think it was the best they possibly could have done under the circumstances.
- DennyAs dissapointing as it is to lose a player like Halladay its going to exciting watching these young players grow and develop. I have a good feeling about this Anthopolous guy…
http://www.thanksroy.com
This was posted in the Drunk Jays Fans comments section and is a fantastic idea.
MW: Yes, it is. 28 pages long so far!
- MatthewGreat pitcher. Sounds like a fantastic human being as well.
My favourite ever Blue Jay by far. He will be missed.
- Derek1. Nicely said Mike. I’ve got a little tear in my eye.
2. Gotta say though, Wallace is a 3 hole bat, Travis will be the 4. Wallace is a walk machine. Not sure what that’ll mean for Lind. Three straight lefties? Maybe…
3. People aren’t as high on Arencibia because he had a down year. (I mention this because of your D’Arnaud comment.) That said, he still hit over 20 (PCL) homers and looks to be a safe bet for that moving forward. Have the Jays EVER had a big league catcher who hit 20+?
4. Does Snider’s swing remind you a bit of Delgado’s? (It also has a little bit of Hinske in it.)
5. Brad Fullmer had the ugliest swing I’ve ever seen on a big leaguer.
MW: 3 – The Blue Jays have NEVER had a catcher hit 20 or more home runs in a single season. Darrin Fletcher hit 20 in 2000, but one of them was as a DH. 4 – A bit, yes. 5 – But he might be the best baserunner the team has had since Paul Molitor.
- petemichael,
a few more bullets to mention to you.
1. first i’ve ever heard of it but the rotoworld site is reporting that the wallace kid was actually an original blue jay draft pick in 2005. i guess if true, went back into the draft & repicked by the cards a few yrs. later.
2. alot of people seemed to be all worked up over the fact that the jays had to pay the phils $6m towards the existing doc contract. don’t you find it kinda peculiar by the apparent affront some people have on this matter when it’s in fact not their money & the organizattion was more than happy to do it? we seem to see this alot. a little bit funny i’m thinking….
3. i suppose there is something to be said for the notion of karma. doc is as genuine as they come & no doubt deserves all good things coming his way just by the way he conducts himself on & off the field.
and this trade could have easily gone a few different ways in the end but he gets a destination that was absolutely his very first choice for him & his family (or so he says) but firmly believe that to be true based on his circumstances (where he resides etc..)
and also nice in a sense that the organization is able to accomodate one of their true great ones in this manner & still get what they want at the same time while (undeliberately i’m sure) catering to his preference.
win/win for all involved under the circumstances…..
MW: 1 – Yes, Wallace was a 42nd round pick of the Jays out of high school, but that doesn’t mean nearly as much as some are making it out to. Teams throw away late-round picks on high school kids that they know will never sign all the time, just in case. 2 – The Jays still saved close to $10 million in the deal. 3 – Nice had nothing to do with it. Halladay held all the cards here, and the Jays had to deal him where he wanted to go.
- darrell bishopExcellent read, thanks Mike. Excited about the future, even though it’s tough losing Doc. Looking forward to what the rest of the off-season brings. Happy holidays.
- WDMGreat blog post Mike. This has been one busy and emotional off season for the Jays and Jays fans.
If you were working in the Marketing Department for the Blue Jays how would you sell the 2010 edition of the Jays to the fans?
Thanks and Happy holidays!
Karim
MW: They’ll be better than you think!
- karim kanjiMike, I love the addition of Drabek and D’Arnaud but I am still sceptical about the Talor/Wallace trade. Obviosuly I have never seen them play but the numbers that Taylor put up in the minors were very good. over the course of his three year minor leaguer career he hit .312, 45 homers and 205 RBI’s and stole over 50 bases. His OPS last year was an amazing .977!!! How could this guy not fit into the Jays future?? Am I missing something? Is Wallace’s future that much better?? I look forward to hearing your responce. Thanks
MW: See above.
- Chris PalmquistGreat Blog Mike,
I really enjoy your Blogs and Radio Show, and not just because we have similar names. LOL. I just enjoy your realistic perspective on the Jays and I like the fact that you don’t have biased agenda. (like some other sports media in TO) I think this recent trade was a great one that A.A. should be very proud of. Now I do understand that we truly won’t know the impact of players like Drabeck and Wallace for a least a couple years but I personally have a great feeling about the trade. A.A. did a great job in his first big move as a GM. He could have easily been fleeced by a veteran and savy baseball guy like Amarro on this deal and I am personally happy for A.A.
Keep up the good work Mike and I look forward to more posts when Spring Training comes around.
MW: Thanks – but just so you know, the “veteran and savvy” baseball guy Amaro has been a major-league G.M. exactly one year longer than Alex.
- Mike MilnerThanks Mike.
I will miss watching Roy Halladay pitch for us. He is a true gentleman and an awesome talent. I cannot remember an athlete who was so successful and also so grounded.
I remember him being interviewed and being asked who his heroes were. He mentioned the businessman who’s company his father flies for. A person who was not famous, but who scratched hard to make a living, treated the people around him fairly, and lived his life with honour and commitment.
How cool is that?
I look forward to seeing the young prospects break through for the Jays, and in the meantime, I’ll cheer for the Phillies in the post season.
- DavidHi Mike,
I’m going to miss watching Doc dominate every five days but I understand (I hope) what AA is trying to do. In terms of one of the guys we got, any chance that Wallace plays third? A variety of reports call him a ‘corner infielder’. That would allow Lind/Dopirak a shot at first (I’m assuming Overbay’s moved). Any idea if Wallace played third in the minors and if so, would he be an upgrade over Edwin? On another note, any word on Randy Ruiz this off-season, any hope the Jays give him a shot to DH next year?
Jeff
MW: See above.
- JeffHi Mike,
Were the Jays one of the teams watching Chapman pitch? Do you think they have interest? If they were willing to give 6 million to get the prospects they wanted in a trade do you think they are willing to give 15-20 million to sign Chapman? What amount do you think he will sign for? Another high ceiling arm would make the farm system look pretty good and maybe create some excitement around the team. Interested to read what you think.
MW: The Jays were indeed one of the teams that came to watch Aroldis Chapman, and they’d have to pay that much in order to sign him. I don’t know if they’ll be the winning bid, but he’s a definitely a guy at whom I’d like to see them take a shot.
- SteveHi Mike,
I know there’s a guy in SF who might have something to say about it, but I’m thinking Cy Young for sure for Roy.
Now, the move to the NL didn’t seem to help Santana much, but maybe that can be explained by the eventual elbow surgery. What other great AL pitchers have moved to the NL in their prime, and how have they done in their first couple of years before the hitters got some experience with them?
Thanks…love your thoughts…you add such a great dimension to our game!
MW: Halladay’s no longer in his prime, so he wouldn’t count. But look at what CC Sabathia did with Milwaukee in 2008 and Cliff Lee with the Phillies this past year.
- Steve in HHthank you! i’m tired of hearing everyone slam this deal. this is the first rational article i’ve read about this trade.
the jays, as Mike said, had a gun to their heads. under the circumstances, we got a heck of a lot in return: three really solid prospects.
looking forward to 2010, and beyond, i’d like to see an infield of Wallace, Hill, and Encarnacion. i think Encarnacion can regain his ’06-’08 form. i’d also like to see an outfield of Lind, Wells, and Snider. the jays’ focus should then be on finding a long term fix at shortstop and dh/left fielder.
Mike, why is the gm seemingly so low on Snider? why won’t he name Snider the starting right fielder when the guy has accomplished just about everything he can in the minors and will be, by all accounts, a hitting stud? and why is the organization so down on Lind in left field? i don’t think he’s any worse than Jason Bay. in 200 games started in the outfield, Lind has one error and a decent eight assists.
MW: Error and assist totals don’t really tell you anything concrete about outfield defense. The consensus is that Lind is a very weak defender, but I think he’s just a touch below average. I don’t think Alex is low on Snider at all.
- Nick5Very nicely done Mike. I’m so sad to see Roy go, but happy for him. He deserves to pitch for a contender, sadly it’s not the Jays. I’ll be rooting for Philly. It’ll be sweet beyond words to watch Roy pitching against the Yankees in the 2010 WS. Can’t wait! Hey – how far away is Philly anyway? :)
MW: You could drive it in eight hours.
- FayJayI can guarantee you Halladay will loose more than one game next season Mike. He’s one of the best pitchers but he not Superman. He’s only a human being & it’s impossible for human beings to have a couple of bad starts a year. However, he may get around 27 wins since he has a pitcher to pitch to against now & he has a better offense behind him but he would still loose at least 3 which is still phemomal for a human being if he can pull it off.
MW: First of all, THERE IS ONLY ONE “O” IN THE WORD LOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Second of all – sheesh.
- Diego M.Why does it seem like all Jays fans hate EE. He is not that bad of a player. He had a rough month or so when he came over here, but he was recovering from an injury, in Sept he was really good.
MW: Most Blue Jays fans think Encarnacion is garbage because he had an abysmal first two/three weeks after the trade and wound up hitting .225 for the season.
- Paul B.Hi Mike,
Can you explain the 6 million dollars that the Jays had to give Philly? Were the Phillies not already getting Halladay at a bargain for 2010? If his worth was 20 million plus, Philly was getting him at something like 15 million? Could the Jays not have gotten this deal done without the compensation?
Thanks,
Bill
MW: Ummmm, obviously not.
- Bill WhippleAnswering one of my own earlier questions: Fletcher hit 20 HR in 2000, but I think that’s the only time. Arencibia might do that routinely.
MW: I answered that question even better. :-)
- peteThis guy isn’t as high on Our New Jays as everyone else is, so I’m putting it forward for comment… Did we get rooked after all?
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/79477807.html?cmpid=15585797
MW: I don’t think you read the same article as I did if you think that Bill Conlin is saying the Jays got rooked. What he said is that the Phillies didn’t really change much for 2010 in dealing Lee/Taylor/Drabek/D’Arnaud for Halladay/Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez, and that none of Taylor, Drabek and D’Arnaud were going to make an impact in Philadelphia in 2010, which is exactly right. Where is the rooked part?
- isabella reyesHey Mike,
In retrospect, do you think the Jays regret the Robinzon Diaz trade? Surely, they got back Batista, but the reason they made the trade was because he had fallen back a little and Arencibia was progressing well.
If the Jays had kept Diaz, do you think there’s any chance that D’Arnaud is included in this trade?
Thanks
MW: Seeing as Diaz has fallen flat and has since been released by the Pirates, no, I don’t think the Jays regret getting a major-league asset for him.
- James from MississaugaMr. Wilner,
Excellent piece of writing. I especially enjoyed your last sentance. Wouldn’t that be something! Doc comes back home. The thought brings tears to my eyes. All the best to Doc in Philadelphia. Excellent work, AA, and it looks like we having the makings of a very exciting team in the not-too-distant future!
- LoganI read your blog often, but what does this mean again… hitting .305/.367/.464
I am getting to old to follow stats
Thanks
Pat
MW: No such thing as too old to follow stats. Those slash stats refer to batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage.
- Pat HoodMike, as sad as it is to see Roy go – I really like this deal for the Jays. My only question mark is with the Wallace-Taylor swap. I know Wallace is projected by some (Keith Law esp.) to have a bigger bat, is a pure hitter with more upside at the bat; but I really felt like Taylor was going to be a beast. It’s not like the Jays have a logjam in the Outfield: yes Vernon Wells is stuck in CF for a year or two before he gets placed into RF or LF. Assuming Jeff Blair is wrong and the Jays don’t trade Snider, he’ll be patrolling the outfield for a while too. The fact that Taylor won’t be a CF is the only rationale that explains why the Jays would claim there’s a logjam in the OF. Wallace isn’t going to be a 3B, he’ll play an average 1B. I don’t know.. I just feel like this is one side of the deal that could come back and haunt the Jays.
MW: See above.
- RenegadeGreat post. I agree 100%. Sad to see him go, but exciting to have Wallace and Drabek as blue chippers soon ready to make this team and compete.
If Wallace and Drabek, and Snider and one of our other younger pitching arms pan out … look out,’cause we’ll be good.
Go Jays Go!
- MichaelHi Mike.
Many thanks for your analysis: your blog is always my first stop for Blue Jays news.
Perhaps you can ask the callers who are bound to call in next season complaining that AA didn’t get a major-league-ready player for Halladay if they would want Cito managing such a player in his first year in the major leagues.
When McCown lobbied for a big financial push with Halladay for next season, I wonder if he was factoring in Cito’s managing style, which would have made going in that direction riskier still.
I’d rather see Cito mis-manage the one-year filler players next season. Any chance AA has been thinking along these lines as well?
MW: There’s a chance.
- kateMike, This made my day:
“Hopefully, if he ever actually does become a free agent, he’ll come back home to play out his last few years back here where it all started – in a rotation headed up by Kyle Drabek, throwing to Travis D’Arnaud, with Brett Wallace at first and batting clean-up.”
His interview with SNet seemed to have a couple hints at a possible return one day (in my mind at least!).
The future looks bright to me, especially consiering that the Jays will add up to NINE high draft picks come June to add to a (somewhat)replenished farm.
1. Do you think Taylor’s phyisical condition (diabetes and a 260lb. frame) contributed to the decision to trade him for wallace?
2. Do you think the Jays will go “all out” on the draft in 2010, meaning spending lots of money and taking risks on a lot of high-upside talent?
3a. Does Encarnacion start at 3B in 2010?
3b. Does he have a future here?
3c. Is he a FA after 2010?
3d. Can you give me your stats prediction for his 2010 season (slash line, HR, 2B) if he plays a full season here at 3B?
Thanks!
MW: 1 – No. 2 – No. 3a – Yes. 3b – Yes. 3c – No. 3d – Not really, but Bill James’ is .259/.343/.465, 21 HR, 28 doubles.
- Andy McHi Mike
First things first, I think this was a pretty good deal for Halladay. Obviously, it was going to be almost impossible to get someone back who had his level of talent, but it’s hard to argue with the 19th and 26th ranked prospects in baseball (according to baseball America), not to mention a catcher who apparently has a lot of upside. That being said, Halladay will still be missed.
Now that the Halladay deal is done, what do you think the Jays will/should do for the rest of the off-season? Personally, I would like to see if there was anyway that the Jays could get Yonder Alonso from the Reds. The Jays still have two very good relievers in Downs and Frasor and Joey Votto is currently blocking Alonso at first base so there may be a trade there.
I know that they are talking about moving Wallace to first but this would require finding another third base prospect and to me it doesn’t look like there are many out there who are playing for organizations that would be very willing to move them (all the teams with third base prospects in the top 50 have holes at third on the major league squad with the exception of the Cubs). So if it looks like it would be more difficult to find a good young third base prospect opposed to a good young first base prospect why move Wallace off third? Now if the Jays feel that Wallace can’t play third, then moving him to first makes sense, however, there were two other organizations that seemed to think he could handle the hot corner and most of the scouting reports that I have read seem to put him between being an average defender to slightly below average but still not a huge liability on the field.
I’m mostly just thinking out loud here, but I’d really appreciate any thoughts you might have on Alonso. Thanks for the continued blogage!
P.S.
2010 predictions
Halladay: over / under 23.5 wins; over / under ERA 2.20?
MW: The Jays have stated firmly that Wallace could be an adequate third baseman in the majors, but an above-average first baseman, so they’re going to put him at first. I’ll take the over on both the wins and the ERA.
- AdamNot sure I care much for the attitude of owners and/or management staff here. When JP said that he couldn’t compete with NY or Boston, he should have been fired. It was his job to compete with them! Now I hear Beeston say that Halladay told him he wanted a chance to play for a winner, so he traded him? Build a winner here. If Toronto is destined to be a AAA 1/2 team, I’m just going to throw in the towel with the suits down there.
Very, very frustrating.
MW: You do realize that Halladay was a free agent after 2010, right?
- JohnHey Mike,
Assuming there wasn’t a no-trade clause and a trade request prior to Spring Training. When comparing the rumoured deals in the news vs. what the Jays actually got, how does this deal rate? What was the best package out there?
I understand the majority of those reports of avaliable players were likely not accurate I always love to compare.
Lastly, would you say the 3 prospects the Jays got (x trade with Oak) were better than the 3 that the Phillies got?
Thanks.
MW: Yes, I would. And you can’t assume no no-trade and trade request – that changes the game too much.
- AKMike,
A question . . . Brett Wallace was highly regarded and a centerpiece of the A’s deal with the Cards. So why do you think they were willing to deal him away so quickly?
Could Taylor not have been converted into a first baseman? With his size, he would seem like a natural. Another Ryan Howard.
MW: I have never seen Taylor play (and I’m assuming you haven’t, either), so I can’t say whether he’d have made a good first baseman. Would Dave Winfield? I think the A’s saw a surplus at a position, a need at another and two players they felt were similar.
- Ken in KingstonExcellent analysis Mike, as always.
Must say I’m quite impressed with Mr. Anthopolous, I do believe he has given Jays fans considerable reason for optimism with this deal.
I’ve heard that Brett Wallace can really rake and that he has an extremely muscular build for his 6’1 frame. Can you think of a past MLB player that he may be similar too?
Adam Lind is locked up until 2012 and Aaron Hill until 2014 correct? If these young Jays replicate the success of the 80s we may appreciate Roy even more, if that is at all possible!
I’m excited. I can’t wait for Roy to get that ring and come back home for another.
MW: The Jays have options on Hill from 2012-2014, but have to exercise them all after this coming season or they only get one or two of them, and Lind isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2013. I haven’t seen Wallace, so I can’t come up with a comparison for you.
- ChrisWe all wish “Doc” well in his quest. What impressed me was how he, with the “loaded gun” worked with his former to get a “win-win”. Contrast that to the selfish actions of Tracy Mcgrady, Vince Carter and Mats Sundin.
- JackNow onto the team, we keep hearing about the 120M payroll, big market, etc etc. Will those be just words or is the vision for the management team 3-5 years down the road.
Mike, I am sure you get a copy of the BA America Prospect Handbook each year, as I do. Anyone in the industry would agree they are very good at what they do.
So looking back at lasts years book, Cleveland received the 3rd, 4th and 5th best prospect for Lee. The Jays just received the 5th, 6th and 7th best prospects in last years book. So according to BA, Cleveland made out much much better.
It is not like the Toronto Blue Jay scouting department can claim to a great track record in scouting. The few prospects in Toronto that have done well are high round picks, lind, hill, marcum, mcgowan, snider.
BA published the top 10 Philly prospects and Dominic Brown is number one. I highly doubt he will make the top 20 in their top 100 list. How can you not get the teams best prospect trading Halladay with a 4 years left on his contract(which was a condition of the deal)?
so these “two top flight stud prospects” you speak of are not going to be condsidering a top 25 prospect in baseball by the most reputable unbiased public scouting guide available. Which means they are nothing more than solid prospects. David price, felix were stud prospects.
Do you think the A’s would have traded Wallace if he was such a stud prospect? He will likely become a very good hitter, but good enough as a 1B to put up numbers anything close to the top 5 1B in baseball? Ie 5 years of 35HR 100 RBI production.
Don’t be such a homer!!
MW: Would Carrasco, Marson and Donald been rated higher than Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud by BA after the 2009 season? I doubt it very much. You see, values change when more information is available. There’s no question in any scout’s mind that the package of prospects the Jays got from Philly was better than the package that the Indians got. And where was Brett Wallace in last year’s book? The Cards’ #1? Won’t he be the A’s #1 in this year’s edition (unless they can update it?). I’m assuming that Drabek and Wallace will both be rated very highly in all the prospecting for 2010, but again, those guys are often, often, often wrong on players. Don’t always look to be negative.
- kevin blodgettI largely agree with your analysis. This was probably the best trade the Jays could make and it seems to have the potential to be more like the Colon trade than the others you mentioned. This says encouraging things about the future – i.e. Anthopoulos might be the real deal and for once the Jays rebuilding plan isnt handing out inflated contracts to borderline players (bye bye JP).
Two things I diasgree about:
1. I still think Stieb is the Jays best home grown pitcher of all time though I acknowledge Halladay is on the verge of eclipsing him should he have a stronger ending to his career; and
2. I think 2010 will resemble 81 more than 82 – with Cito playing the role of lame duck caretaker manager Bobby Mattick and the young AA cleaning up JP’s mess and reprising the role of the young Gillick cleaning up Bavasi’s mess. This means slow start, worrisome low attendance and a strong finish.
Anyway, really sad to see Halladay wearing Phillies garb. Hated it like when I first saw Alomar in Orioles colours.
MW: 1 – It’s an argument that can’t be won, but given the era and the competition, I learn towards Halladay. 2 – Could be.
- ProkopecVery nice article Mike.
I for one like this trade as much as I can when the Jays trade Halladay. I find it very funny that you had mentioned the Bartolo Colon trade because I was thinking about the exact same thing and hope that we are as happy with what Alex got in return as the Indians were a few years later. The loss of “Doc” will not stop me from attending games this year and it shouldnt stop the “real fan” because if your a fan it doesnt matter who’s on the field. I was skeptical of sending Taylor to Oakland at first but after checking the stats and some video on Wallace I’m looking forward to watching him on a daily basis.
Thanks again Mike and have a very Happy Holidays
P.S now that your done reading my coment GO VOTE FOR TOM
- Chrisyour last paragraph summed it all up perfectly. I hope he does come back after he finds his championship. what a class act.
- Randy28-1? I know you’re exagerating to make a point but all may not go well for Doc in Philly. Fact is there are absolutely no guarantees in life and what may seem like a sure thing can go sour sour as quickly as a sharp combacker off the shin. Just saying…
MW: Somebody has to be the t**d in the punch bowl, after all.
- marcNice post, Mike.
I noticed something while watching the Halladay press conference. He was wearing a jersey with the number 34 on it. I checked the Phillies website, but didn’t notice anyone taking up the number 32.
Any ideas?
MW: Not really.
- DiegoOkay Mike. I’ll take your word for it. If you don’t have patience you might as well pick another team but it kind of sucks that at this time last year we were told that 2010 would be the big year.
- DomenickHey Mike,
I just looked at Brett Wallace’s Wikipedia page and noticed that the Blue Jays drafted him in 2005 in the 42nd round. He chose not to sign and head to University.
Does he have a problem with playing in Canada, or did he just make a personal decision to improve his baseball game?
Thanks
MW: He went from being a 42nd-round draft pick out of high school to being a 1st-round draft pick out of college. That fact alone should tell you all you need to know about why he didn’t sign.
- James from MississaugaHi Mike,
1) Assuming no new signings or trades, who is the Opening Day starter in 2010?
2) Who replaces Halladay’s innings? If it’s via trades, who’s available? If it’s through free agency, who would be a reasonable signing?
Thank you.
MW: 1 – Shaun Marcum or Ricky Romero. 2- A bunch of guys. I don’t think the Jays will specifically go out into the market seeking an innings-eater, though one could fall into their laps.
- Patrick C.I read a few philly blogs and they were sure that Taylor would be the next Howard without the strikeouts,and who also is a good outfielder.
What are your thoughts on that part of the deal?
MW: See above.
- davi998Wilner: Nice synopsis ofthe Halladay trade.We’ll have to wait and see how these pups do,but patience is thin when you see a classy all-star leave for a few no-name wannabees.Imagine how relieved the AL East teams are.Your friend McCown might not agree but you know more than him and us about these things. If challenged by him, don’t be afraid of his bullying tactics.You may actually be better than Scott Ferguson in these matters, Ciao.
MW: Wow, nothing like a good back-handed compliment!
- CarlosHey Mike,
Are we going to see Zack stewart this year? And how much upside does he have? And how far along is Henderson Alvarez? I know he is only 19 but are the bluejays getting excited about him?
MW: Probably, most see him as a third starter-type. Henderson Alvarez is only 19.
- John TerryMike,
Wha twill the Jays do with the $9nillion they saved in not having to pay Roy Halladay this year? Are a bat and another starter in the budget?
MW: I don’t think they’re planning on putting it back into the 2010 payroll.
- Jeff G.so if this is a 4-5 year rebuilding, when exactly does this “spending like the red sox” promise take effect?…great, 4 years of 40 mill payroll…by the time that comes around, hill and lind will in a likelihood have flamed out, mean while, all of tampa and baltimores great young players will have matured, while the yanks and red sox will still be signing 30 year old all stars annually….sounds like a flawless plan
MW: That’s why it’s not a 4-5 year rebuild.
- jpHello Mike,
Very happy that the Jays were able to pull of this blockbuster of prospects by aquireing the Drabek,D’Arnaud and Brett Wallace. So what does this mean now. Is Drabek going to be with the big club. Will D;Arnaud be with the big club in the next few years and how long will it take for Wallace to get into the starting lineup. I am very excited about the future of the Jays right now and especially for the future. Knowing that the Blue Jays are in great hands now with AA as the new GM and he really knows what he is doing. The Blue Jays have great future young players to look forward to for years to come from Cecil to Wallace 23,Drabek 22,Stewart 23,Arencibia 23,D’Arnaud 20,Snider 21,Rzepczynski 24, Romero 24, Cooper 21 and the list goes on of young players. These players will be lead by Lind and Hill and I think that the Jays should of did this a wile ago but now AA and Jays nation really know what they are doing to get a championship. But the time we are loaded up and the players develop into stars we will be ready to compete with the Red Sox and the Yankees. I also can’t wait until Spring Training and watching these young players play. Now that Halladay is gone. Who is the new ace and what is the starting rotation going to look like. I think it will be something like this
1.) Romero
2.) Marcum
3.) Rzepczynski
4.) Cecil
5.) Purcey
Just to start the season. Stewart should be ready by late May mid June. Litsch and McGowan have to heel from there injuries but if McGowan is ready put him in and get rid of Purcey and make McGowan your #3 and move Rzepczynski to #4 and Cecil to #5. I really don’t want Richmond back. He will be 32 in 2010 and next year is the year that the Jays start all over again. SO what do you think of the starting rotation and what does your batting order look like for next season?
MW: See above for the rotation. I don’t think they’re done yet, so predicting a batting order at this point is fraught with peril.
- DaveSlice it any way you want the fans are being asked, again, to wait for the future. The payroll has likely gone down, the product isn’t as good, but the ticket prices will remain the same.
Its a sad day. Even in his press conference, Roy’s first comments were about Toronto, his experience here, and how much he liked it.
He’s the kind of guy who I suspect would play his entire career in one organization and then become the ambassador for the organization. A rarity in any sport these days. He just wanted to win. Isn’t that what we all want and isn’t that what sports is all about.
Someone in the Rogers’ ivory tower has to decide whether they are in this game or not. If they are, act like the big market team AA spoke of in his news conference yesterday.
As I believe you said, Mike, sports is a “now” business, not a wait until tomorrow business.
I think the Jays and Rogers will find out there’s only one team in this town that can get away with the constant refrain of, wait until tomorrow.
MW: I’m not sure I ever said that. Sometimes sports IS a “wait for tomorrow” business, and this is one of those times. You’re right, only the Leafs can get away with it and still sell out in Toronto, but the Jays are strong enough to wait out a rough year or two before the winning brings back the fans.
- PeterGreat job Mike. The way I look at is that the Doc was going. If the Jays kept him for 2010, they would get draft picks, which I believe would be 2nd rounders. Instead, they move up to 1st round picks, who look pretty good to be actual full-time position players. A good start for Alex A. Does it look to you like Lyle Overbay is going to be traded next?
MW: They would have likely gotten one first-rounder and a sandwich pick for Halladay after 2010, instead they get known commodities whose signing bonuses are already paid. Overbay might not be next, but he’s being offered.
- ScottHey Mike,
Just a couple questions,
1. Do you think that now that Halladay is gone maybe AA will be looking to get rid of Overbay?
2. Do you know if any teams are even interested in Overbay?
3. Do you think that it would be possible to trade Overbay to a team for maybe a low cost veteran pitcher (to eat up innings) and maybe a prospect who is still a long ways off?
4. Is Jason Bay COMPLETELY out of the picture? As in there is no chance at all that the Jays might make a run for him? I know the chances would be slim if they were too go after him, but its always good to be optimistic.
Thanks Mike,
Keep up the good work
MW: 1 – For the 417th time….. 2 – A few ought to be. 3 – Probably not. 4 – Yes, completely out of the picture, unless he can’t find any other team he likes to sign him.
- Karsten GrubberGreat job, Mike. Today’s blog ranks among your finest. Loved the way you wrapped it up, all around a really nice piece.
Questions- What to do you see as AA’s next move? What are the odds on AA signing a cheapish veteran pitcher to fill out the rotation? or will they stick with all the kids (+Tallet?).
Also, do you have any inkling who AA might be looking at for a manager next year? (I’d love to see Butterfield snag it, but that’s just me)
MW: I’d love to see Butter get it, too.
- Scott BHello Mike,
I have been reading your blog and listening to “Jays Talk” for a while, and I always enjoy it. It’s with mixed emotions that I say goodbuy to “Doc”, sad to see him go, but I think AA did very well with what he had to work with (big move for his first significant transaction).
It will be interesting to see what comes of the prospects we received in return. I have read a lot about Wallace, and a couple of reports say that he lacks power, how familar are you with him, and what are your impressions of him?
Thanks and keep up the great work,
KG
MW: See above.
- Kevin GHi Mike:
I don’t usually get the nerve to e-mail radio hosts to air my concerns but…this Halladay thing really hits a nerve with me, I am a huge baseball fan and have been for years. I am a NY Met fan and not only did they trade Halladay to Phily but made me think about the darkest day for the Mets (and I’m not talking about 40W-120L in ’62). June 15, 1977 the New York Mets traded a then 32yr old Tom Seaver to the Cincinnatti Reds for 4 prospects and we all know that worked out for the Mets. Seven seasons of pathetic baseball (434W-641L .404 winning %) with nothing to show for a first ballot hall of famer. Now Halladay is no Seaver but the Jays better hope these prospects are no Doug Flynn either. The most frightening thing to me is the paralell between the leanest years for the Mets ’77-’83 in terms of fan base and attendance after the Seaver trade to the current Halladay situation. Baseball in Toronto cannot stand seven years of 90+ loss seasons without ownership turmoil and maybe the end of baseball in Canada. Triple A teams lead to Triple A attendance especially in this market, and I would hate to see the Mexico City Blue Jays in 2015. So be warned Canada the history of trading the best pitchers in baseball takes many lean years to recover from, the late 70′s Mets are proof of that. Good Luck Blue Jays you are going to need it!!
Scott
Hamilton, ON
MW: I’m sorry the Seaver trade didn’t work out (I always liked Doug Flynn), but you really need to scale back the fear-mongering.
- Scott WickendenMichael excellent anlaysis! But I’m betting that this turns out better that the Bartolo Colon deal. Romero, Cecil, Mark R, Richmond, et al, all kind of landed on the Rogers Centre mound last year and who would have thunk it? Drabek actually has a “can’t miss” pedigree as does Wallace, and D’Arnaud could be a sleeper – aka “easy power.” This will definitely perk my interest for the next few years.
MW: There’s no such thing as “can’t miss” – and you’re setting yourself up to be disappointed if you think this will turn out better than the Colon deal. Odds are against that, for sure.
- Charles AttardHey Mike, I have two questions for you.
1. Do you think that D’Arnaud will and/or already has catapulted himself above Arencibia and Jeroloman on our list of potential starting backstops?
2. Brian Dopirak has been tearing up the minor leagues for 8 seasons now. Will he ever get a chance to compete at the major league level?
MW: 1 – In 2013? Yes. 2 – I don’t know, maybe not. He hasn’t really been tearing up the minor leagues for all eight seasons, though.
- Jon C.Mike: Why is it, you think, that the Jays don’t think that highly of Dopirak or Ruiz – not enough to give them a chance when they are cheap, controllable players who have pretty much done all they can do in AAA? If it doesn’t work out, they can just shuttle back and forth and be AAAA guys at worst.
Suppose it does work out. You’ve got cost-effective hot-hands to ride. It just boggles the mind as to why neither of these guys would be given a fair shake in ST.
Can’t wait for Cito to leave town and see if they’ll get any sort of philosophical shift. I’m guessing this lame duck year is going to be painful at times.
MW: I honestly don’t know why they’re so reluctant to give Ruiz and Dopirak a fair shot – they just don’t like them as much as their numbers would indicate they should, I guess.
- Jim BHey Mike
I realize this deal needed to be done, but as a fan of the Jays since day one, i find myself extremely irratated by the departure of perhaps the greatest player in franchise history. Jay fans have not had a hole lot to cheer about over the last decade and a half, but even so i still really looked forward to watching Doc carve up the opposition every 5th day.
I find myself p***d with JP once again for his inability to turn this team into even an occasional contender, which likely would have enable management to keep Doc in the fold. It was obvious Halladay loved Toronto, and if the team could have made the playoffs a few times i think he may have re-signed to finish his career in T.O.
At least there is a very good possibility that we will finally see Doc perform in the post season in 2010, and i hope he gets the ball when the Phillies come to Toronto this year. Maybe we can get really lucky and watch him shut down the Yanks in the World Series next November.
MW: You do realize that no other team in the A.L. East besides the big two as been even an occasional contender in the last dozen years, right? Once doesn’t count.
- RickHey Mike
One other item re: the Halladay deal. I must say i am extremely impressed with the way AA handled the whole situation.
Last year JP had what should have been a simple task to deal arguably the best pitcher in baseball, who was signed below market value and would have a profound impact on not one but two playoff appearances. Well JP shot his mouth off, turned it into a circus and couldn’t get a deal done, and obviously made Doc extremely uncomfortable during the process.
Now AA takes over and has to make a deal, but the trade value of Halladay is almost cut in half because he only has a year on his contract. Add to this the pressure from Doc’s demands to be dealt by spring training, and it puts AA in a much more difficult position. So he does what JP couldn’t do in 8 years, he gets creative and works in a 3rd team and even gives up some cash to get the deal done, and acquires two of the very same guys JP was after. Love the addition of Wallace, won’t shock me if he turns into an offensive player similar to a guy like Berkman.
2010 is going to be tough to watch without Doc, then having to put up with Cito who will most likely be platooning guys like Wallace and Snider when they should be playing everyday. I will say i am excited to watch AA rebuild this team, his performance so far has been great.
MW: Obviously Halladay’s value wasn’t cut in even close to half, given the return. One could argue that his value didn’t go down at all, and maybe even went up, since the Phils included a player in the trade who was untouchable in the summer.
- RickMike, can I ask you a dumb question?
Why is this considered a 4 team trade? Lee to Seattle for a few prospects is completely peripheral to Toronto with Philly and then Toronto with Oakland.
MW: I don’t know, because it’s more sensational and jazzy to say it’s a four-team trade than to say that it’s three separate trades between four trades. Then again, there’s a chance that none of the three trades could have happened without the others happening.
- simonI’m glad the Blue Jays finally rewarded Halladay with the opportunity to join a contender. I also like the players we got back with one exception. Brett Wallace is no Michael Taylor. He is a five tool outfielder that has perennially hit well north of .340. His numbers bear out better than Ryan Howard during his time in Philly’s minors system. He projects better than Travis Snider. So why did we insist he be in the deal to ship him out? I have been somewhat leery of the Jays Boston-like methods under JP Ricciardi, and hope this new GM in Alex doesn’t continue that sicken train of thought.
MW: I’m not sure if you don’t know what “perenially” means or what “well north” means, but Taylor – a career .312 hitter in the minors – has hit over .340 exactly once in his professional career. In 2008, he hit .346 in A-ball at the age of 22. At 22, Travis Snider will be beginning his third season in the major leagues. Brett Wallace is a year younger than Taylor, but has 446 plate appearances in AAA compared to Taylor’s 128. That “sicken” Boston-like train of thought has gotten the Red Sox two World Series titles in the last five years, no?
- Gary CarpenterA quick question, Mike:
How does the acquisition of the three young players affect the Jays’ 40-man roster? Which (if any) of them have to be added to the 40-man?
I note that the CBS Blue Jay home page is currently showing 41 in their “roster” list, including Halladay but not including any of the three newcomers. But they also are not showing Ramon Castro, so obviously this list is somewhat outdated.
Neither do they show any category for “disabled”, so I’m guessing there are one or two names there (Litsch?) who may not be currently counting against the 40-man roster.
Can you update us on where the roster stands at the moment?
Thanks
MW: It was at 38 at the winter meetings, and they added Zinicola to make it 39. Buck takes them to 40. None of the new guys have to be on the 40-man yet, and Ramon Castro is on a minor-league deal (I think). There are no disabled lists in December – everyone counts.
- NormFor the first of a rebuilding year, it looks like the trade for Halladay has bolstered the minor league for a while.
But looking at the Jays lineup as it stands today, I don’t see any possible way that they can put together a good year at all.
They are still missing speed on the basepaths. They are still missing a reliable closer. They are missing a reliable ace.
It seems like there are so many pieces missing from the puzzle. I’m trying to figure out the answers.
Is Bautista in OF or 3B?
Is Lind the everyday DH or will Ruiz step in? Will Ruiz play 1B?
If Snider the everyday RF?
Who will be the dominant SS?
With the savings of Rios and 7M of Halliday’s salary, will the Jays go out and spend to get a few Free Agents who can fill in the blanks?
My fear is that without a defined starting lineup, the Jays will be stuck to platooning a bunch of players and get into the same incidents that the Jays had late last year where Cito was afraid to use the players when the situation called for them.
- TimI really enjoyed reading this post and the audio clip you did. I’ll miss having Roy here but it really is a shame that AA’s FANTASTIC work in this trade goes unappreciated among the Toronto fanbase. The guy had a no trade clause I heard he was willing to waive for only four teams, and two of them (Boston, New York) showed very little interest.
The comment on the fans wondering about D’Arnaud made me laugh. Speaking of D’Arnaud, his brother is a pretty decent SS prospect. What are the chances of having Chase and Travis D’Arnaud on the same team?
Really excited about the future in this club, even moreso than the summer we signed Burnett and Ryan.
MW: I don’t think the Pirates are looking to deal any young talent.
- Alanit makes me upset that the phillies phans are more phanatic about this phabulous trade.
p.s. did you see what i did there? i phillied up my comment
- a.j.Here is the lineup I would like to see take the field on opening day.
C: John Buck (eventually JP Arencibia)
1B: Brian Dopirak
2B: Aaron Hill
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
SS: Alex Gonzalez
RF: Travis Snider
LF: Adam Lind
CF: Vernon Wells
DH: Randy Ruiz
This is under the assumption that AA trades Overbay and we just get prospects. I still think the Jays should keep EE for this season. It’s unlikely that the Jays compete anyway so they might as well keep him and hope he gets back to his .290 BA, 20 HR season. He is only 26 and could still be an above average player.
And if we aren’t going to compete we also might as well have Dopirak up here to replace Overbay. I really hope he is being talked about as the future 1B for the Jay. He is only 25 and has been very successful in the minors. It’s time to call him up.
Give Ruiz a legit shot this year (cough cough, Cito) at being a DH and maybe he could be the future DH for the Jays. I loved watching him and Dopirak play in Vegas. You don’t win MVP of a league for nothing! And I’m hoping for a rebound year for JP Arencibia in AAA. If he does then I would like to see him up here sooner rather than later. I still think that he is the future catcher.
Anyway, those are just some of the things that I would do next year to gear up for the future when we can actually compete with hopefully Wallace, Dopirak, JP, Ruiz, Drabek and maybe EE but I wouldn’t know where he would play if Wallace hopefully can play 3B and with the outfield full. The future isn’t as bleak as it is made out to be by the media and some fans.
- JAYsonI can honestly say I’m excited about the future but a little aprehensive about who will be the new “ace” of the staff.
A question I do have for you though is do you think Snider may be dealt for say a stud short-stop prospect or another really good arm. I say that because of his apparent “differences” with Cito and his inability to play in right.
That way Lind could go back to left, Wallace could play first… but that still leaves a hole in right.
Your the brains here. What are our options?
MW: My the brains here? Snider isn’t unable to play right. In fact, I think he can be a solid rightfielder, but Cito disagrees. If Alex Anthopoulos ever trades anyone of value because of apparent differences with a manager who is going to be gone after the season then he should be fired immediately.
- DavidHi Mike
I am going to miss Doc, but I am also very happy for him. I hope he wins the big prize more that once.
Just wondering though, if he did win the big prize, would he not go into the hall as a Phillie rather than a Blue Jay.
PS I noticed that red is not his colour
MW: It’s not up to him. Given that he spent his first 12 seasons with the Blue Jays, if he’s only in Philly for four, then he probably goes in as a Jay.
- AnneWould Roy come back?
MW: Yes.
- Joemr wilner
one of the few times you and i agree on players coming to the jays. ive been watching brett wallace for the past year and a half while with ST louis and oakland. I think jays fans will be happy with the end product of hitting ability and baseball talent.
Drabek was the philles best pitcher and isnt as far away as some fans may believe. I can see drabek up in 2011 in september to get his feet wet.
D’arnaund i can do without but who knows. from what ive read he has hitting ability but cant run well nor is he good defensively behind the plate. maybe he can turn things around but with J already at AAA, a confusing pickup indeed.
my biggest fear with all these guys and especially wallace is cito. now cito is only here for 1 more season, (thank god), but i cant see wallace getting anywhere near the field while cito roams the dugout at rogers centre.
lastly i can say this move alone beats any moves JP riccardi made in his plus 8 yrs with the ballclub. Only if anthopolus can get a collection of bats and balls for vernon wells.
- mark in caledoniaMike,
I read that in order for Roy to stay a Blue Jay he requested that Beeston/Anthopoulos sign at least 3 free agents.What do you make of this?
How do you rate Anthopolous’s
activity so far? Should he have also asked for Aumont from Seattle in this deal?
MW: I’m sure he did ask for Aumont, but didn’t get him. I think the “sign at least three free agents” thing is kind of vague. The Jays have already signed four free agents – McDonald, Gonzalez, Buck and Castro.
- MarkMike,
If Brett Wallace is the “super stud” that you say he is why was Michael Taylor so important for Oakland. Would the trade have been just as good without Wallace and keeping Taylor?
MW: No, it wouldn’t have. It still would have been good, though – Taylor is a good player. What makes you think he was SO important for Oakland? The Jays and A’s made a good baseball trade, young talent for young talent.
- shahanWell said, Mike, now I know I’m not the only one picturing Roy coming back when the franchise is the contender he’s been waiting loyally for all these years. Even though the day after the trade was a really sober one, there are a lot of reasons for optimism for the new direction. I suspect that with a little good luck (McGowan/Litsch recovery, Wells rebound, Snider growing into the role) things could look up sooner than expected, with serious contention in 2011-2012 and beyond.
- Josh CMike, I love this deal. Don’t forget about the MANY draft picks the jays have in the first few rounds this year too. I know its all about rebuilding right now, but any chance they sign Russell Branyan for a short 2 year deal? He can play first until Wallace is ready, then move to DH and put Lind in left.
MW: There’s a chance, but not at all much of one. They still have that Overbay guy to play first.
- M_TayWilner,
Your lack of blogage during one of the most important trades in Blue Jay history is very disheartening.
MW: Sorry, but what did you want? An hourly update on all the rumours? That’s not what this blog is – mlbtraderumors.com and the Drunks did a great job of following the rumours.
- BobbyMike,
Do you think that Rolen, Arnsberg and Halladay all wanting out had something to do with this Cito revolt stuff? Doc just seemed a little too happy at his Philly presser to me and we know Rolen begged out while Arnsberg wanted out so bad he left a years pay on the table. What gives? Could Cito really be that bad that he’s driving all these guys away? Maybe Cito throwing BJ Ryan under the bus didn’t sit well with these guys.
Plus, whatever happened to that guy who wrote all the poems? Once the Jays fell out of the race in June that was it for him and the poems. Man, I miss that guy.
MW: Arnsberg didn’t really leave a year’s pay on the table, since he got a new job right away. He really wanted out, for sure. I’m not sure how much Rolen wanting to leave had to do with Cito, though he wasn’t happy about being sat once a week or so (best thing for him, though), and I don’t think Halladay leaving had anything to do with Cito.
- McLovinMike…
a) Was the signing of Mike Cameron a contingency plan for the Red Sox if Jason Bay leaves?..And also Mike, what is J.D. Drew’s contract status and do you think Boston would like to keep him?I picture an outfield of Ellsbury, Bay and Cameron( no particular order of right ,left and centre)
b) I enjoyed your summary of Doc’s career in Toronto. He didn’t burn any bridges here, didn’t pull a “Mats Sundin” antic and will always be welcome here. Like the prophetic lines that close Abbey Road: “The love you take is equal to the love you make” ( I know I’m talking to the Beatle guru of all time and technically the tiny song “Her Majesty” closes the album, but I know Mike you’ll let me go on that one.)
MW: A – It wasn’t a contingency, it was the replacement for Bay. Drew is under contract for another two years – the Sox’ outfield defense will be really, really good.
- chris m.Hey Mike, I agree with you I know a lot of people are mad that Halladay was traded, but I think we got as good of a package as we could get back. My question for you is are you at all worried about Kyle Drabek’s size, and the fact that he has already had Tommy john Surgery? Do you feel because of all of this he may have a greater potential for more arm problems in the future??
Thanks Mike
MW: Nope. In fact, it should be a relief that Drabek has already gotten his TJ out of the way.
- JamieHey Mike,
Just wanted to ask you about Aroldis Chapman. In his chat on BlueJays.com, AA mentioned that he sent two scouts to watch Chapman’s pitching session this week. It was reported a while ago that the Jays were interested in him, and then that they weren’t. Do you think the Jays will seriously pursue him, or is it just due-dilligence going to see him pitch?
He’d be a great option for the team, and it sounds like he has the raw skills to be a future #1 with the new young core of the team – though I guess most GMs around the league think that. He’d also allow us some flexibility to deal one of our other young pitchers, like Cecil or Rzepczynski for a similar-calibre shortstop of center-fielder.
Anyways, do you think the Jays will be realistically in on him?
And just out of curiousity, for whoever signs Chapman as an International free agent, do the same rules apply to them as draft picks – that you get six years of control of them at the major league level? Or is it just terms agreed upon at the time of signing?
Thanks a lot!
MW: The same rules will apply to Chapman as any other player. Six years of major-league service before he’s eligible for free agency. I hope they’ll be a realistic player for him – you’re right, he’d be a very good add.
- BretThank-You for your insightful blog.
I have been having a hard time coming up with a good read on who the Blue Jays got in return for Halladay. This is the first place I even saw all three prospect names listed.
Very well written. I love the comparisons to what other teams got for their superstar pitcher, makes me feel like the Jay’s will do all right. (No thanks to J.P.)
MW: What did J.P. have to do with this? Seems like you went out of your way there to get a shot in.
- Ian GreenwayI am still confused about why Gaston is still here. Obviously there is some sort of loyalty to him that must be protecting his job. With next year supposedly being the beginning of another youth rebuild project it would seem like a perfect time to hire a better manager for the long term. This isn’t the time to fool around and risk another dismal season. If the team is dreadful in 2010 I worry that there may be no need to bother worrying about the future.
It will be interesting to see what kind of turnout comes to the games in the first half. If 10,000 becomes more the norm than the exception will Rogers see any point in continuing?
And if they don’t, who would buy this team that would want to keep it here? The stadium is already a negative in the eyes of many. The fan base is older and have memories of the championship years. Is there a young breed of fan who will replace these folks when they can’t come to games anymore?
You can be optimistic about things but I am concerned about the long term future of a baseball team in Toronto. Living in the past isn’t helping things. Alex A. may have pulled off a great deal in getting Drabek – but keeping the same tired old man in the dugout is a very bad choice.
MW: Yes, it is, and there aren’t many who disagree (besides Cito and Paul Beeston), but it’s not a decision that is going to cause the franchise to leave town.
- Rob MMike,
- JoeExcellent analysis. You echoed my thoughts exactly. Considering the circumstances, I think the Jays did well. The key prospect is Drabek. My instinct is telling me this kid will be much like his father; a competitive bulldog who wants the ball in pressure situations. I think D’Arnaud will surprise and be a diamond in the rough. I’m not sure on the Wallace for Taylor deal but we’ll see. I also hope, like you, that Halladay returns in 2014 or 2015 to finish his career here. Beeston and AA are starting to look a lot like Gillick and Beeston did back in the 1980s. If that means we suffer for 2-3 years before we contend, why not.
Hey Mike, I’m actually alright with the Halladay trade for now, anyway, I want to ask you about something else: Is Casey Janssen overrated? I know he had a decent year in 06, but whenever he pitched from then on he was lack lustre to say the least. I can’t figure out why Gaston keeps deciding to let him pitch, because honestly, usually when he pitches something bad happens. But that’s my opinion, what do you think?
MW: Janssen had a fantastic year in 2007, then had major, major shoulder surgery from which he’s still really recovering. I think he can be a strong contributor in the bullpen.
- AdamMike,
I agree that this was the best move for the Jays (and Halladay) at this time. My thinking is, we are not as bad without him as it may seem to most fans and the proverbial sky isn’t falling.
2010 will not be a year in which we contend, but the subsequent off season will see quite a bit of money coming off the books (approx 50 Million by my estimation). Some of that would have to go to pay the likes of Romero and Lind, but that off season seems like the perfect time to increase payroll and add 2 or 3 elite FA’s to the team.
2010 Lineup (just a projection with some comments)
1) RF – Bautista (his last year here and a must-have upgrade)
2) 2B – Hill (in his prime and better suited to hit 5th/6th)
3) DH – Lind (perfect #3 hitter on ANY team)
4) Overbay – 1B (if he’s still here, Wallace in 2011)
5) CF – Wells (not going anywhere, may have to move him to one of the corners go-forward)
6) LF – Snider (important season for Travis)
7) 3B – Encarnacion (probably his last year here and a good spot for an 2011 upgrade)
8) C – Buck (stop gap until Jeroloman/Arencebia arrive)
9) SS – Gonzalez (stop gap, a must have upgrade in 2011)
Rotation (again, just a projection with comments):
1) Romero (solid #2/3, but we’ll need to sign a veteran top of the rotation SP in 2011)
2) Marcum (hopefully he bounces back from TJ)
3) Cecil (important year for his development)
4) Rzepcynski (see Cecil)
5) Tallet (was pretty solid in ’09 and a perfect 4/5 SP)
To me, that’s a slightly below .500 club that has developing youth and system youth coming. With some added funds this team could be very good in 2011. Add in Drabek, Stewart and maybe Jenkins and the sky is still firmly held above us. :)
I’d love to hear your thoughts on all that. Sorry for the super lengthy post, but I rarely comment, so I got my fill! haha
MW: Your line-up isn’t that far off, I don’t think, given what the Jays have now. And we know now that Morrow is likely to be in that rotation ahead of Tallet. I’m not as sold on Romero as you (and he won’t be getting any of that money in 2011, not with less than two years of service time).
- Jeff MI think the issue is if Wallace makes the team–that he should be hitting against lefties. He hits both righties and lefties and with the season a clear rebuild, there is no reason for Cito to not play him in all situations.
MW: And the same with Snider. Then again, Cito has a way of doing things.
- RichardDo you know what happened with the rumoured Milton Bradley/Wells trade? Seems the Cubs made essentially the same deal, granted much less total cash commitment. I’m sure Rogers would have had to chip in. But I’d also assume VW has more longterm upside. Do you know if AA backed out of this, or did the Cubs?
MW: The Cubs didn’t even make remotely close to the same deal. Wells has nearly $80 million more left on his contract than Silva does. I don’t think Bradley/Wells ever got beyond the rumour stage.
- NeilCorrect me if i am wrong please Mike. I have read a lot of reports and fanblogs blasting the trade for Wallace instead of keeping Taylor but doesn’t Taylor have Diabetes and wont that hamper his career down the road?
Great piece on Doc and i loved the retrospective.
Sean
MW: Taylor does have diabetes, but that’s not a reason to deal a guy for lesser return. Wallace is a much better bat.
- Sean“Hopefully, if he ever actually does become a free agent, he’ll come back home to play out his last few years back here where it all started – in a rotation headed up by Kyle Drabek, throwing to Travis D’Arnaud, with Brett Wallace at first and batting clean-up.”
Love it.
- AndrewUm MIke, I’m not begging for a rude reply but honestly, what’s the point of posting a blog about the biggest trade in Blue Jay history and then posting no replies for 4 days and counting?
It would have been interesting to see what the reaction was before this story got cold. Otherwise it should have merely been an online article.
If you have not been well or celebrating a Jewish holiday, why not just post the responses without your comment?
Respectfully….
MW: That’s fair, I probably should have put the comments up sooner, but that’s going to happen sometimes over the course of the winter. I’ve spent about five hours today answering them. Maybe I should just stop responding to the comments and just put them up in order to make the turnaround faster.
- GaryGreat analysis, Mike.
- NeilI’d like to add to the praise of Roy. Have you seen Jayson Stark’s column on espn.com from the other day? He makes a fantastic case for Doc being the best pitcher in baseball. It’s very simple — in every game the Jays played with Roy starting, the team record was 149-89 (0.654). When anybody else started? 493-564 (0.466). This means that with Roy, we were a 106 win per year team, and without him, we would project to 75 wins per year.
That statistic is ridiculous. That’s a winning percentage difference of .188 — and no other pitcher has come close to having that effect on their team. Not Sabathia, not Oswalt, not Santana….. not anyone.
Best of luck, Roy. I will terribly miss watching you pitch.
Do you know what type of free agent Lyle Overbay will be at the end of the year – whether it’s A, B or neither?
I think he might be a Type B free agent, in which case it may make more sense to keep him this season and collect a supplemental pick for him. I doubt that if they traded him they would get back a 1st or 2nd round talent for him.
MW: Given that 50% of the “grade” for the rating will depend on his 2010, no, I have no idea what type of free agent Overbay will be at the end of the season. They might not get back sandwich-level talent for Overbay in trade, but they’d save $7 million, which could be translated into talent down the road.
- ScottThe Jays clearly received a phenomenal return in this deal. I’m extremely excited to watch Wallace and Drabek develop into very nice pieces for this ball club over the next year or two.
I would dearly love for Halladay to win a few rings with the Phillies and then come back to Toronto to play out the string. If all of the young arms and bats are making there way to the show around that time it would be a storybook ending.
Quick question.. Brian Dopirak turned 26 yesterday and has very good numbers (.281 BA, .826 OPS, 21AB/HR) through 8 seasons and pretty well all levels of minor league ball. Even his fielding is pretty good! Will he be playing baseball in the Rogers Centre this season?
MW: Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it.
- KPGreat job with the Halladay tribute!
MW: Thanks! But I’d call it a retrospective, not a tribute.
- Matt in BCQuestion: Define irony.
Answer: You ending your post with “rational, reasonable comments are always welcome”, just after writing:
“Hopefully, if he ever actually does become a free agent, he’ll come back home to play out his last few years back here where it all started – in a rotation headed up by Kyle Drabek, throwing to Travis D’Arnaud, with Brett Wallace at first and batting clean-up.”
sorry – I couldn’t resist.
MW: What’s irrational or unreasonable about that?
- James FiremanMike, we read the same article and in it the writer says this:
Let me break this to you gently. My favorite, massive and massively gifted outfielder Michael Taylor, was not going to be here next season. He was being Ryanized by the 2 years remaining on Raul Ibanez’ contract. He’ll be a rookie of the year candidate in Oakland this summer instead of marking time in Triple A or taking up space as a No. 4 outfielder.
“Kyle Drabek was not going to be here, unless the staff imploded. And I still think he’s a lot closer to another Tommy John than to the Cy Young his dad won with the Pirates.
Travis D’Arnaud? Until 2 days ago, the catcher could have been a cognac brand for all the traction he had here.”
So Kyle Drabek is gonna be an injury-ridden problem and Travis d’Arnaud was never going to make the team either. That does not sound like he’s upset they have been shipped off to TO. In fact the tenor of the article is ‘We Won! And the other guys lost!!’
By the way, the Jays may have been a top ten team in the major leagues but they were the only top ten team that has never been to the playoffs or even near the playoffs. If you want to play semantics, they are a top-flight team. If you look at the reality of the situation…they aren’t.
MW: First of all, this is Bill Conlin, not one of the Phillies’ team physicians. Go look at the history of pitchers who have needed a second TJ, you won’t find many. He’s pulled that out of someplace where the sun don’t shine. D’Arnaud is 20 years old, of course he was never going to make the team. I don’t see what you see. The Phillies absolutely won the deal in the short term, and maybe in the long term too, since they got Halladay, but for the Jays it wasn’t about 2010 at all, and probably not even about 2011. Also, if you look at the reality of the situation, no one in the A.L. East is or has been for the last dozen years (with one exception) except the Yankees and Red Sox.
- isabella reyesMike,
Re Halladay’s Philly number 34. I wondered the same things and discovered that Steve Carlton wore 32, so it’s retired.
Btw, please don’t stop making comments on blog comments. When there are a lot of comments posted, I often read only your responses. I’m not as interested in every one else’s comments.
MW: Thanks, and thanks for the info.
- kateDiego asked, “Nice post, Mike.
I noticed something while watching the Halladay press conference. He was wearing a jersey with the number 34 on it. I checked the Phillies website, but didn’t notice anyone taking up the number 32.
Any ideas?”
Number 32 is a retired number. It was worn by pitcher Steve Carlton.
- Ian D. ElsasserQuote:
I noticed something while watching the Halladay press conference. He was wearing a jersey with the number 34 on it. I checked the Phillies website, but didn’t notice anyone taking up the number 32.
Any ideas?
MW: Not really.
/quote
32 belonged to some guy named “Steve Carlton”
Apparently the Phillies retired it for some reason.
;)
MW: Yeah – he didn’t talk to the media, so I hadn’t heard of him.
- WillRainHey Mike,
Just wanted to say that while I look forward to reading the comments page, I wouldn’t listen to those who are saying you’re taking too long to post. And my two cents would be don’t post without your comments because your insight is the best part– it’s why I read the section. I’m sure many would agree with me. I’d rather be patient and benefit from your insight.
On that note, it was good to get your sense of Aroldis Chapman. I was surprised when AA ruled it out several weeks ago on the basis that they hadn’t been able to scout him enough. I’m hoping he had a change of heart by sending two scouts to his workout, though I understand most teams were there. For the same cost as a year of Halladay, we could maybe get 6 years of Chapman. He’s got the raw talent, though I’m just not sure if his mental make-up fits AA’s philosophy. I’m also not sure that a guy who appears to be enjoying newfound US fame will be as interested in playing outside the US, maybe missing out on some sponsorship $$s.
MW: Though it might be easier for him to get his family to Canada than to the U.S., and certainly people from his home country are free to come here to watch him, as well. That could be a big factor. I always thought the Jays should be at the forefront of the Cuban market for that reason.
- ChrisRE: Post 68:
#32 is retired by the Phillies (Steve Carlton I think?). I read somewhere during the Halladay trade hoopla that the Phillies could give Roy “everything he wants, except his number” although I can’t remember where I saw that.
- Mike MRe my post 110 above:
I agree that retaining Gaston may not DIRECTLY cause the team to leave Toronto.
But I also believe that the in-game management style of Cito could cost the team at least five and maybe more wins in a season. And this doesn’t even touch the inner side of the team, which we can’t see. Subtract Roy Halladay’s win total next season and every win this team can get next year is a crucial one. Cito sitting back with his stubborn loyalties will cost wins and sour players who think they (or someone else) should be in there in a key situation.
With the downward trend in attendance at the end of last season there needs to be a fervent marketing campaign to get people back before 10,000 becomes the norm. I think if we do reach 10,000 as a norm there will be bigger problems to solve.
The best marketing plan is a young team, with a fresh (and young?) manager playing perhaps mediocre, but sometimes exciting baseball. Gaston offers none of these.
There is no time to fool around here with old favours. More than ever there needs to be a buzz around this team, to perk up the attendance and the image of the team in the town. I think 2010 could be a terrible year if the team is bad – we will see lows in attendance and interest in the city and that, I fear, may be the beginning of the end.
MW: I think you need to step back and take a deep breath – honestly. The idea that 10,000 is going to become the norm for Blue Jays attendance anytime in the near future is patently ridiculous. Look at the attendance figures from 2003 on – here are the averages for each season: 22,215; 23,457; 24,876; 28,422; 29,143; 29,626; 23,162. So right now they’re back to where they were in 2004. Do you honestly think that average attendance is going to drop from 23,000 to 10,000 in one year, or even in three? Remember, as well, that the 14-18,000 “real fans” need to be supplemented by the casual fans, and the casual fans all love Cito.
- Rob MForget the Level Of Excellence – should Halladay’s 32 be retired in Toronto?
MW: It should – when Dave Stieb’s 37, Carlos Delgado’s 25, Roberto Alomar’s 12, Joe Carter’s 29 and Tony Fernandez’ 1 are.
- Mike VilnaI find it rather ammusing how you state , time and time again , that the phillies probably would have won the WS if they had landed Halladay instead of Lee before the deadline last year.
Truth is I don’t see how Roy could have pitched any better than Cliff in the post season ( 4-0 1.57 era )
we’ll see if Doc makes the difference this year for the phillies. He will be hard pressed to match what Lee did last year
MW: I have stated, time and again, that the Phillies would have won the World Series last year had they traded for Roy Halladay ALONG WITH Cliff Lee, which they could have done, given the package they gave up for Lee and the one the Jays wanted for Halladay. I have also said that they may well have won the World Series had they acquired Halladay instead of Lee, which is true. Your point about Lee’s record in the post-season is well made, but Lee couldn’t (or wouldn’t) throw on short rest and that made a big difference against a Yankee team that didn’t have to use a 4th starter in the World Series. Halladay could have done that. Lee was 7-4, 3.39 with the Phils last year, in an inferior league. Halladay won’t be hard-pressed to match that.
- Jason V