9:35 PM Eastern
Sorry, I just spent the last three hours cutting up Cito Gaston and Alex Anthopoulos tape – I have nothing left for a pithy title for this post.
The last full day of the Winter Meetings was a little busier than the days previous, with the Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks officially announcing the three-way deal that we discussed on Monday. The Orioles were busy, too, picking up Kevin Millwood to lead their staff and show the kid pitchers the ropes – Texas got Chris Ray back. The Rangers are also closing in on Rich Harden for way more money than I thought he’d cost ($7.5 million for one year). There’s Bengie Molina (Mets) and Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies) talk, and the Milton Bradley deal that was imminent 24 hours ago hasn’t happened yet, and may not get done before the end of the Meetings.
We had a lovely lunch with Cito Gaston this afternoon, and then a more formal sitdown with him later on just prior to the daily chat with Alex Anthopoulos. I’ll take you through the talk with Cito first.
The Jays’ skipper-for-one-more-year said that most of his plans for 2010 will be based on the return the Jays get in trading Roy Halladay. He has no clue who will be in his rotation, save for Ricky Romero, though he said he hopes Marc Rzepczynski will be a starter – mentioning that he had a terrific year as a rookie if you disregard his 2-4 record (and he’s right! 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 60 K in 61 1/3 innings, opponents hit .225/.317/.366). He neglected to mention Shawn Marcum until much later in the conversation, eventually saying he’s another one of those guys that might or might not be healthy. It seems as though Romero, Rzepczynski, Marcum, Cecil and whoever comes back for Halladay will make up the Jays’ rotation – so if the Angels rumours are true and it’s Joe Saunders, the Jays could have four lefty starters.
In the absence of Marco Scutaro, Jose Bautista is the prohibitive favourite to be the lead-off man – assuming he’s tendered a contract y Saturday, which is not a safe assumption, followed by someone that the Jays get in the Halladay trade (Erick Aybar?), Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and some combination of Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay. Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Snider and whoever catches would make up the bottom third, if it’s a shortstop batting second. Gaston said he wants to try Hill and Lind hitting 3-4, but believes that Lind has a mental block about hitting clean-up and so he might have to move him back to the three-hole. He thought that if that happened, Hill could hit clean-up, but that might put too much pressure on him, so it might be Vernon, with Hill going back to the two spot.
Some other nuggets:
-Cito thinks the Jays need to improve the farm system and expand their international scouting in the Dominican, Venezuela and Puerto Rico.
-He doesn’t believe that as much as half the clubhouse had turned on him late last season, but if they’re still upset with him, they’ll only have to deal with him for one more year.
-Bringing Nick Levya in from third to be the bench coach is the best option for the coaching staff, since a bench coach needs to have a real connection with the manager, and be a good friend – that’s why Cito didn’t accept any of the bench coach jobs he was offered prior to his managerial comeback.
-Ricky Romero should be good to throw about 200 innings this season, with Cecil and Zep being able to go to about 175, assuming they all stay healthy.
-Cito remains a huge fan of Halladay’s, understands why he wants to be traded and wishes him the best.
-His wish list in a deal for Halladay includes an innings-eating starter and an outfielder or a catcher.
As I have with Alex’s audio the last couple of days, I present here all the Cito clips I sent back to the station:
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After talking to Cito, the assemblage headed upstairs to Jay Stenhouse’s room to get our daily briefing from Alex Anthopoulos. Alex was more forthcoming today than he has been at any other point here in Indy, probably because Cito spent so much time saying “it depends on what we get back for Doc”.
Alex even came close to addressing some of the rumours that have been flying around for months, saying “it’s been clear we’ve been targeting players on certain teams” and “it’s easy to say what players fit for what we’re trying to do”. He continues to try to get a third, and even a fourth, team involved in a Halladay trade in order to make as many pieces fit together as possible and maximize the Jays’ return. He said that he’s trying to get as high a volume as possible of guys who have a chance to wind up being premium players. It doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s only looking at players who have 0-3 years of service time and are therefore not yet eligible for arbitration.
Anthopoulos understands both that trading Halladay isn’t what a lot of fans want, and that the eventual return might not be something that makes a lot of fans happy. But he said that he doesn’t “expect everybody to agree with the things that we do, that just goes without saying, but I think everyone’s going to understand that the reasons that we do things are going to be well thought-out, there’ll be a process in place, and obviously everything that we are doing is what we feel is best for this organization.”
Alex also touched on tomorrow morning’s Rule 5 draft and Saturday’s non-tender deadline. He has been talking to representatives of free agents whom he considers solid replacements for players he might non-tender to see if there’s the possibility of letting a guy (Jose Bautista? Brian Tallet?) go and signing a similar player at a far cheaper price. He said he should know by Friday to whom he’ll be tendering contracts, though some of those decisions could depend on potential trades that are being discussed.
As far as the Rule 5 draft, the mechanism by which the Blue Jays were able to acquire players such as George Bell, Kelly Gruber and Manny Lee, among others, Alex said that there are some players available that intrigue him, but he has yet to decide whether they’re worth the cost of the 40-man roster spot and whether they’d be able to keep such a player on the major-league roster all season. In my thinking, if there was a year to take a gamble on a Rule 5 guy, this is it. So was last year, but they didn’t draft anyone then.
There are only 38 players currently on the Jays’ 40-man roster, which means that the Jays shouldn’t lose any players they actually like. If they leave two spots open and lose an important player then, says Alex, “shame on us.” I asked him specifically about Adam Loewen, a guy whose bat steadily improved as the year went along (except for his Arizona Fall League session) and someone who is Rule 5 eligible in whom I thought some teams might have interest. It turns out that when the Jays signed Loewen to his two-year minor-league deal last winter, they insured themselves against somebody snapping him up in the Rule 5 by including a clause in his contract that increases his salary to $3 million if he makes the major-league roster this year. So nobody is going to take Loewen.
Alex also talked about the money that the baseball operations department has to spend. While not giving any specific numbers, he said that there’s a pool of money from which the entire department has to draw, which includes scouting, draft bonuses, payroll, everything. So the idea that they have a specific budget to spend on their draft picks is incorrect.
Here are all the clips of Alex’s briefing that I sent back to the station, in one tidy package:
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OK, that’s about enough for today. I don’t think that the Jays make a move prior to leaving Indianapolis tomorrow (Alex and his crew are on an early afternoon flight – Toronto weather permitting), unless it’s to grab someone in the Rule 5 draft. The Halladay-to-the-Angels rumours are likely to heat up over the next day or two, and you have to wonder if the Jays would be well-served to move on a package that includes Erick Aybar, Saunders or Jered Weaver, and minor-league speedy outfielder Peter Bourjos. I would like to think that they’d want to get slugging catcher Mike Napoli back in any deal with the Halos. That package of four gets it done for me – then they’d have to figure out what to do with Alex Gonzalez.
Thanks to all those of you who participated in the live chat this afternoon! Now go vote for Tom at www.facebook.com/baseballhall.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Hey Mike,
Hate to keep beating the catching drum, but with the rumors of Boston trading (and eating a lot of salary) Mike Lowell, to Texas for Max Ramirez,
I can’t help but think that the Jays could offer a much better option for Ramirez.
No?
MW: Than a $3 million veteran DH/first baseman who can hit and lead in the room? Maybe not.
- bootyI have really enjoyed your blog during the meetings. In your opinion are the Angels now the front runner to land Doc?? The rumoured package of either arm, Aybar and Napoli sounds great. BUT the rumoured Rays offer of Upton and Davis also seems good. Have you heard anything else about the Rays interest in Doc?
MW: I have heard nothing more about that proposed Rays deal. I’d be surprised if there’s really any there there.
- Chris Palmquistare there any names out there of the top players that are getting the most interest in the Rule 5 draft tommorow?? Is there a favorite to go #1??
MW: Sorry – too late.
- Chris PalmquistMarcum might or might not be healthy? Where did this come from? The last thing I heard about Marcum was that he was healthy for spring training. What gives Mike?
MW: That was the last I heard, too, which I think is the truth. Cito sometimes says stuff that’s not exactly right – for example, he also referred to Jose Bautista as a free agent, which he isn’t.
- Scott BMike,
I don’t know about this Angles trade rumour for Halladay. While I really like Erick Aybar, I think Saunders is a very, very average pitcher, Napoli’s a punch in the arm on offence but he’s getting old for a catcher (28) and is not under control for much longer, plus I don’t know much about Bourjos aside from the stats that tell me he is a dime a dozen fast outfielder with no pop. It’s quantity but is it the quality you want from a Halladay trade? I think the bottom line for me is I know Saunders and Napoli have reached their upside and aren’t controllable much longer. Replace those two with two (maybe one depending on who) younger players with more upside and I think the Jays have a better package no?
MW: Well, yeah, though I like Napoli a lot. Both he and Saunders are still under control for three years, so it’s not as if they’re just about to walk away. I think you’re being pretty hard on Saunders and Bourjos, though. I don’t love Saunders, but he’s not very, very average. He’s a solid pitch-to-contact lefty with a 1.3 career WHIP who is a buy-low after his drop-off last year from the all-star season in ’08. He’s nobody’s ace, but he hasn’t reached his ceiling, either. Bourjos, as a 22 year-old in AA, saw his walk rate improve and his strikeout rate decrease, both by wide margins, and he’s stolen 82 bases in two seasons while being caught only 22 times.
- Ryan McCallenDoes Gonzalez have the ability to play 3B? I like him there over Edwin. I also would rather have Weaver than Saunders to add a righty arm into the rotation. There are too many lefties in the rotation as it is.
Is there any interest at all in Overbay? I know the Jays are trying to trade him, but I assume he makes too much to be attractive to other teams.
MW: Why would you like Gonzalez over Edwin at third? Gonzalez can’t hit. I’d rather have Weaver than Saunders, too, but because he’s better, not because he’s right-handed. As for Overbay, they traded him last month, and not to a big-money team so I’m assuming his contract won’t really stand in the way if there’s a deal out there that could actually get done for reals.
- AndrewHey mike what do you think of Halladay/Overbay-to-the-Angels for Erick Aybar, Saunders, Peter Bourjos and Kendrey Morales.
MW: Good by me, but the Angels aren’t going to do it.
- MarkHey Mike
From what i’ve been reading, it appears AA’s asking price for Doc may be too high and its unlikely that a deal will get completed. The Jays would be making a huge mistake to start the season with Doc still on the roster. If he stays and walks at the end of the season, thats an absolute disaster.
I think the club needs to stop thinking about getting equal value for Doc because thats just not possible. A good deal at this point brings something of lesser value than Doc but more than a couple of 1st rounders.
I read on the Sickels website that the Phillies offered Happ, Taylor, Donald and Carrasco at the deadline last year. Did you hear about that one? If it was true, i think that would have been a great deal for T.O and the Phillies probably win the world series last year….
MW: There’s no way to get equal value for Halladay, so I don’t think the Jays are hung up on waiting for that, but I also don’t think they’re doing themselves a disservice by taking their time in making a deal. Nor do I think they plan on having him by the start of Spring Training. I heard lots of different combinations in July, and that was probably one of them, since it didn’t include Drabek or Brown. I don’t think that would have been a great deal for the Jays but yes, I do think the Phillies would have won the World Series with Doc.
- rickmike
have you heard anyone, other than the always reliable elliot, mention this angels-halladay trade?…aybar is the best young SS in the league…no way theyll trade him
MW: No he isn’t, and yes I have.
- jpMike,
the deal of Happ, Taylor and or Brown looks appealing to me. I’d agree to even take back Blanton (whom Philly would like to dump) if the Jays could get another prospect out of the deal.
MW: I’d be happy to take back Blanton if it would help, because he could simply be non-tendered and his money would be off the books. I don’t think Happ and one of the outfielders is enough, though.
- AnthonyMike,
I think I would take the package of Weaver, Aybar, Bourjos, and a prospect. I wouldn’t want Saunders because I feel like he’s more or less close to his ceiling as a #3 starter. Weaver seems like a better bet at being a solid #2 starter (although his sudden drop in velocity this past season does worry me somewhat). Aybar is just fine because he is at least established as a starter and decent hitter.
Depending on who you believe, Bourjos projects to be a below average starter in CF or a decent 4th OF (because he doesn’t project to have enough power or hit for a high enough average).
Getting Napoli as well would be great but I don’t know if the Angels would be open to removing 3 key players from their roster. It doesn’t seem to make sense for them.
MW: I don’t think the Angels consider Napoli a key, because he’s been a half-time player for them with Jeff Mathis, and Aybar is replaceable with Brandon Wood, so it’s no major loss for the Halos.
- JoachimHey Mike,
I just voted for Tom Cheek (again) and noticed that Tom only has 19 votes right now. I voted yesterday and he had close to 500. Granted, all broadcasters votes seem to have reset, just wanted to know if you knew what’s going on…
MW: I think they reset once a week, if not more often, but they archive the previous results.
- Wayne in ScarboroughCanoe reports the offered Angels deal is LHP Joe Saunders, SS Aybar and CF Peter Bourjos. Not quite enough for Doc imo. I want to see both a starting pitcher and a blue-as-you-can-get prospect in the package.
We need to be able to look back 3 years later and see our best player – “that’s what we got for Halladay”
MW: I don’t think you need to look in three years and have the best player on the team be one who came back in the Halladay deal, but I agree that those three alone aren’t enough for Doc.
- GaryWaht’s up with the Joey Gathwright signing-unsigning ? I see Bob Elliot – a person I consider to be well connected – published a story at 530am today that Jays had signed Gathwright. Then I see mlbtraderumurs.com refute the story 2 hours later.
Is that just the nature of these baseball meetings and rumours ? You take your chances trying to be the 1st to report some breaking news ?
MW: I think that’s the nature of what the beast has become, with blogging and twooting and all of that. I’m sure Bob thought he had his information from a very reliable source – otherwise he wouldn’t have gone with it – but unfortunately the quest now seems to have become being first rather than being right.
- TouchemallJoeJust voted on facebook looks like Tom is in 1st with 43%!!!
Anyway can u break down the Angels offer for Doc? Saunders to me is nothing to get excited about, we have enough leftys! Peter Bourjos, what do you know?
Thanks!
MW: See above.
- tony43Hi Mike, the Phillies got Cliff Lee to make a run at it last season. If they went all in & got Halladay, they most likely would have won the World Series..That opposes a good question. Even though the goal is to be champions every year, would organizations trade all their top prospects in their farm to try to win back to back world series in exchange for all their top prospects?..The draw back would be that they would have to go like 5 years in the bottom of the league after they win…I think that would be a bad trade off from a business stand point since the 5 bad years would probably lead to sub par attendance as oppose to say 1 World Series followed by 7 competitive years after. Not sure what the average would perfer, a World Series & like 8 competitive years after…or 2 World Series followed 5 bad seasons…ur thoughts…Thanks Mike
MW: I’m not sure what “opposes a good question” means. As for the question, it’s plain and simple: Flags fly forever. You do whatever you have to do to win the World Series if it’s within your reach, even if it means gutting your farm system. Is anyone in Toronto upset that the Jays traded Jeff Kent for David Cone in ’92, even though Kent is going to the Hall of Fame?
- DominicCould Brandon Wood be part of this deal with the Angels?
MW: Not if Erick Aybar is.
- mikeMike,
Thanks for your coverage! I’m still a relatively new baseball fan and this was my first time following media coverage from the winter meetings. As far as I can tell, AA is conducting himself like a true professional by disclosing as little as possible about specific players. I’ve been very impressed with his whole philosophy and I started out as a fan angry about the team deciding against spending money to win this year. Do you believe that the Jays can return to the days where the Dome is sold out on a nightly basis? What do you think AA needs to do for this to happen?
MW: I don’t think we’ll ever get back to the point where the Dome is sold out every night.
- TJSmichael,
this speculated deal with the angels is interesting on a few fronts i think.
possibilities coming our way for doc. saunders or weaver (as you mention), aybar at short, and this bourjos component is intriguing indeed. if i’m reading things correctly, he’s their fastest player in the minors, has potential to be a 5 tool guy apparently but i notice he actually ranks down in the 6-7 slot of the angels minor league system depth chart. so that’s somewhat surprising i guess.
a couple theories there i suppose. either a.a. & the group rank him ahead of the others in their estimation or the fact aybar is possibly included in the mix knocks down the minor league acquisition in the total package coming back.
and your suggestion to somehow get the c in there napoli is a good one.
that’d be a nice group no doubt. one of the pitchers (preferably weaver i’m thinking) aybar, bourjos, the backer napoli & we got ourselves a deal.
not hearing anyhting mind blowing from bos. or the phils at this point. but the yanks & perhaps incl. that jesus kid sounds pretty tempting doesn’t it? add chamberlain or hughes as we hear, have them throw in 1 more solid prospect in the bourjos type category (if they have one to give) & i’m thinking that might be the deal if it’s available. jesus sounds like he’s gonna be an offensive (at least) mega star.
what are you thinking michael?
working off these speculations of course….
MW: See above.
- darrell bishopMike,
A few things.
Is it essentially a done deal that Lind will ultimately be moving to first base?
What do you think of the idea of The Jays getting a new centerfielder to be the leadoff hitter and moving Wells over to Right Field?
Heard a rumour about Tampa being interested in Halladay, it had Upton, Wade Davis and a pitching prospect coming back to Toronto. Given Tampa’s salary history I can’t see them trading for Halladay, but what do you think? I wouldn’t mind seeing Upton cruising around centerfield for The Jays but I think they’d need a better pitcher then Davis in return.
You’ve mentioned The fat-elvis baseball collective as a sim league you play in. Have you ever gotten into Whatifsports Hardball Dynasty?
MW: I never have gotten into whatifsports, though it’s been suggested to me before. Not enough time. It’s not a done deal that Lind goes to first, though he’ll get first crack at it if Overbay is traded. I don’t think Wells is going anywhere for at least another year or two.
- CurtisHey Mike,
I was just reading on MLB.com that the Phillies were interested in Halladay. Do you think that it would be unreasonable for AA to ask the Phillies for Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ for Roy Halladay?
Thanks alot Mike and I love your work, you do an awesome job.
MW: I don’t think it would unreasonable to ask, but I don’t think the Phillies would have done that, nor would the Jays have really wanted to bring in guys they couldn’t control for very long.
- Karsten Grubberhi mike , the toronto sun said the jays have 16 million to spent on the 2110 draft have u herd AA speak on that number have a great new year all the best in 2110
MW: See above. I don’t think I’ll be around in 2110, but that’d be cool.
- jays fan from the startMW: I don’t think we’ll ever get back to the point where the Dome is sold out every night.
Wow Mike tell me you meant to add “for a regular season game” to the end of that sentence.
I can agree for regular season but this town embraces winners, so if the Jays got back to the postseason I can see the Dome being stuffed again….even those crappy seats in the 500 level by the hotel rooms.
MW: I didn’t think I had to add the qualifier when I had written “every night”.
- TouchemallJoeGreat deal for Halladay..Real baseball fans know the potential of this deal is huge for the Jays in the future….Anthopoulos was able to do what JP couldnt and thats get them to throw Drabek in…Drabek/Taylor i think will both be good major leaguers…taylor will be a good power hitting outfielder and drabek will be a top rotation pitcher…..i was very meh on the deal until i found out Drabek was involved….2 blue chip prospects whom most scouts agree will be good players…
MW: And Wallace could be the best of the bunch.
- MikeOK please tell me we are not trading Taylor now for Brett Wallace…..need a 3B ok i agree but dont make this deal Anthopoulos…i like taylor’s athleticism and prowess…i think will be the better player down the line….i hate john kruk look alikes…
MW: Have you ever seen either of them play? I’ll take the huge bat.
- MikeNo Mike i havent seen either play..i have been reading a ton of scouting reports on both and read up on there last 2 years in the minors and it confirms what i thnk…that taylor i think is the better player and they guy we should have kept…a power hitting OF with speed…thats exactly what this team needs (athleticism)
Wallace numbers were decent but i thought Taylors minor league numbers this year at AAA were better and he stole 20 bases to boot….
PLus if were planning to move Lind to 1B wouldnt we need a corner OFer now ? BY all counts i have read Wallace isnt a guy that can play 3B at the major league level,he wuold be better suited to move to 1st or DH…..I liked the Halladay deal but i would like to hear Alex’s rationale on the Taylor swap cuz i now officially hate it….
MW: Enjoy hating it while Wallace is putting up Pujolsy numbers for the Jays.
- Mike