UPDATE – 2:10 PM Eastern
Lincecum wins! Good for the voters. And how cool is this – Lincecum won in an incredibly tight race in which he got neither the most first-, second- or third-place votes. Wainwright (who was also named on all 32 ballots) had 12 first-place votes to Lincecum’s 11, Carpenter had 14 second-place votes to Lincecum’s 12 and Wainwright had 15 third-place votes to Lincecum’s 9. The difference was that too many voters were split on Wainwright so he only got five second-place votes, and that gave Lincecum his second straight Cy. If only J.P. would have thrown in Dustin McGowan or something. Oh, well….
The weekend off, and then the easy MVPs come out Monday and Tuesday.
1:55 PM Eastern
Damned if I know.
I still haven’t been able to make up my mind, which is why this post is up so late in the game, just minutes before the winner is announced.
Tim Lincecum, last year’s winner, finished tied for 4th in the league with 15 wins. Even though he led the league in strikeouts (261), finished 2nd in ERA (2.48) and WHIP (1.05) and third in innings pitched (225 1/3), the 15 wins may very well work against him. Lincecum also tied for the league lead with four complete games and two shutouts. None of his closest competitors for the award were in those ties.
Adam Wainwright led the league in wins (19) and innings pitched (233), but was 4th in ERA (2.63) and 10th in WHIP (1.21). Chris Carpenter, who won the award in 2005 and has already won this year’s Comeback Player of the Year Award, led the league in ERA (2.24) and finished second in wins (17) and WHIP (1.01) but only 26th in innings pitched because an injury knocked him out for a few weeks early in the season.
The league leader in WHIP (1.00) was Danny Haren of the Diamondbacks, but the 14-10, 3.14 boots him from the running. Same deal with Javier Vazquez, who was third in the league in WHIP at 1.03 but finished the season 15-10, 2.87.
Don’t even get me started on Cliff Lee. His story isn’t close to the same as CC Sabathia’s was in 2008. Lee went 7-4, 3.39 with a 1.13 WHIP in 12 starts after being traded to the Phillies. He’s a non-entity in this race.
I guess we have ourselves a real test case. Does Zack Greinke’s victory on Tuesday show that the voters are willing to look past wins and delve deeper into the other categories? If so, then Lincecum will win. He’s the guy who would get my vote.
Carpenter won the award in 2005 when Dontrelle Willis had more wins and a better ERA, so it would be a bit of poetic justice if he should lose to Lincecum this time around, but I don’t know if I see it happening.
Wainwright’s 19 wins are glittering, for sure, especially since no one else in the league even won as many as 18, but the four losses that are attached to Carpenter’s 17 wins – along with his ERA title – might get him the hardware.
Again, I don’t know who wins this. I would vote for Lincecum, I’m going to say the writers will vote for Carpenter, but not with any confidence on my part at all.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Mike,
You know who Lincecum looks like? He looks like the character from Dazed & Confused, one of the main kid characters. I know we are comparing a fictional character to an actual professional baseball player but Lincecum actually pitches like the character too. However only I believe the character is a right hand pitcher where Lincecum is a left handed pitcher.
I’m only pointing out a fact and not actual baseball knowledge and also assuming that you have seen the movie.
Thanks
MW: Lincecum is, in fact, a right-handed pitcher but yes, he looks almost exactly like the kid from Dazed and Confused.
- J. Leemichael,
and to think that j.p. actually had that san fran. gm a few yrs. back even actually considering a swap of tim l. & alex r.
it was really kinda hilarious in a way wasn’t it? it seemed like the gm out there took about 2-3 wks. to finally make up his mind. do you remember that? some serious waffling going on there at the time. i’m pretty sure michael that j.p. had him thinking that alex r. was going to be the next roberto clemente or something.
man that one sure seemed like it was very close to happening….
and can’t lie thought about this one on more than a few occasions….halladay, burnett & timmy l. (if j.p.had been able to pull that one out of the hat)
that certainly might have been a different season we witnessed here in t.o. the season before this one just past…
but obviously spilt milk. whatever….
MW: It’s too bad that the Jays didn’t add whatever they had to to that package to make it happen, assuming they even could have, but back then there were a lot of people who thought dealing Rios for Lincecum was nuts.
- darrell bishophey mike,
what are your thoughts of the jays office raising ticket prices? i understand only certain season tickets have been affected so far, but it seems like single game tickets may be next. perhaps the star pass?
has anthopoulos said anything about it yet?
thanks
MW: He hasn’t, but it has nothing to do with him. Only 24 season tickets were affected, but as I’ve said, I think those should be grandfathered. It’s the wrong time to raise ticket prices, that’s for sure.
- DiegoLincecum’s K/9 is the clincher. Absolutely incredible.
Btw, Rich Harden’s K/9 is actually better than Lincecum’s; if only his other stats were better he might have been considered…
MW: 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings is awfully good for a starting pitcher. It wasn’t the clincher, though.
- TomWhat if JP had…..indeed. All I could think about after hearing the Freak’s 2nd CY win was how close JP came to making that deal. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say and I admit at that time when I heard we almost lost Rios in a trade for “some guy” I was relieved the deal did not happen. Rios was coming off an All Star year and HR derby showing. So I won’t be throwing any rocks at JP for that one. I just lament how different things could have been in hindsight.
I heard Jerry H talk with Mike Hogan last month about how Pat Gillick worked the San Diego GM for “the trade” and managed to get Alomar thrown in as a very deftly suggested afterthough. I wonder if JP missed such an opportunity to offer just enough extra to overcome the SF GM’s cold feet ?
MW: We’ll always wonder about that.
- RezI hearing the rumor of Doc going to the Most Hated Yankees. What are the chances of Doc starting for Yankees or RedSox? I will not watch another Bluejays baseball game if either of that comes true. It would be too hard on me to cheer against this guy.
MW: I wouldn’t say the chance are great, but it’s far from impossible. And you don’t have to root against Halladay – just root for him to throw eight brilliant innings every time out and lose 1-0.
- Tharan GHello Mike, since I’m a big Jays fan, the more I think about it, the more the ‘what if’s’ start to bother me about what could of been if J.P threw in like you said a Dustin Mcgowan or a Travis Snider or even BOTH! Especially now when the Jays are going to loose Halladay. That trade could of been a turning point in both franchises, more so for the Jays though. The Jays would not be re-tooling like they are now. Question for you Mike since you are closer to the Jays, how close was it for this trade?? Did SF just had a change of heart & pulled out & said that they weren’t going to trade Lincecum no matter what or was it that they didn’t trade him because the Jays offer wasn’t enough??
I do think that CY Young’s can be overrated because it does depends on the pitcher’s competition that year. Like Halladay should of won at least 2 CY’s by now but Cliff Lee had an unbelievable year in 2008. If Lee was in the National League, Lincecum would of not won his first.
However, Tim, at just 25 years of age, has a chance to be one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Who wins 2 CY Young’s in their first 2 years in the majors??..NO ONE…Granted, it’s not the American League & but it’s still really impressive..And he is really exciting to watch since he is a strike out pitcher. I still remember all the talk in his first year of how his wind up is acceptable to injury. Doesn’t look like that now, does it. Even if he gets injured later in his career, he probably would have won his 6th CY Young or so & still would be well worth his contract. Thanx Mike
MW: Should HAVE, could HAVE, would HAVE – you’re killing me, but at least you got the last one right. Lincecum didn’t win the Cy Young his first year in the majors, by the way, nor do I think he’ll win six, but I look forward to watching him try. There was no way that the Jays were going to throw in McGowan in that deal, and they couldn’t have added Snider. I’m not sure how close the trade was – it seemed as though as soon as the news got out that the Giants were considering it, Brian Sabean started looking for ways to get out of it and he eventually did, with the ridiculous signing of Aaron Rowand. Though I’m sure he’s a lot happier to have wasted that money on Rowand.
- David F from EtobicokeAll I can think about with Tim’s second straight Cy Young award is that the Jays could have had this guy for Rios. Imagine Lincecum with Doc as a one two punch.
MW: They couldn’t have had him for Rios. If they could have, they would have.
- Steve MMike,
Regarding the Rumors for Halladay to the Dogers. I really think they are a good fit, I would hate to see him in Sox or Yanks uni next year. I think if the Jays could recieve Billingsley plus Ivan DeJesus Jr as starting pieces I would seriously consider it. I’m going on the assumption that if they kept Halladay they would recieve two high picks. If those picks turned into player like Billingsley and DeJesus Jr then you would have to be pleased. The Jays get the certainty of a established pitcher and a middle infielder only a year or two away. The Dogers get their ace…seems like a good match to me.
MW: It’s a very good start.
- DennyWould love to know what Brian Sabean wanted in the Rios Package.
MW: I don’t know if he even asked for more.
- mattFrom STATS
Covering ground in center field is not Adam Jones’ forte. The 11 runs he cost his team defensively in center field was the second worst in the American League (Vernon Wells was the worst in baseball with -17).
MW: Which makes me doubt the value of the metric.
- stat ladyhey mike. hope this off season is treating you and yours well so far. the list of the 10 richest canadians was out on this here internet yesterday and the rogers family came in at number 5, i believe, with a net worth of 4.7billion. i don’t know mike. this ownership group could EASILY spend as much as the NYY but they just choose not too. i just think its sad. one question also. based on your gut feeling, is halladay a bluejay come spring training? or will he be dealt for sure this winter?
MW: Gut feeling is he’s traded this winter.
- trevor bHey Mike,
I know you’re of the opinion that when it comes to the Halladay trade, the Jays should just be looking to get the best talent back, regardless of position.
Most Jays however, fans seem to think that since we’re trading away the best pitcher in the game, we need to get a top prospect/young pitcher back. I sort of disagree with that, not that I wouldn’t want a pitcher of that caliber, but that the Jays rotation still seems like the bright spot for the future, even without Halladay, and that our offense seems to have the holes that we don’t have prospects to fill.
So my question is just, if you were offered two packages with equal talent, and one had the centerpiece being a hitter and one being a pitcher, which would you take?
Thanks a lot!
MW: It’s really too vague a question to answer. I would need to know what the pieces were.
- BretMike – for a guy who flat out said it was a waste of time to predict/pick winners in the post season your sure doing a lot of predicting these days with the annual awards! It’s no different when all you have to go on is season results – be it a player or a team.
Hope all you Jays fans out there who bashed em all year are enjoying your latest installment of the Leafs.
How nice to have another GM (Raptors GM) in Toronto who knows what to say, not what to say and when to to say it. MLSE (only the hockey side of it)could learn a lot from Rogers and the capable staff at the helm of the Jays.
Thanks Mike and keep up the good work.
MW: It’s folly to predict the outcome of a playoff series, not so much to try to predict the way a group of people will vote.
- Bob (from Burllington)With 2 oft-injured but nonetheless quality Canadian arms available for cheaper than normal deals this offseason, do you think Toronto will go after either of Rich Harden or Erik Bedard. Harden has made 51 starts over the last 2 years whereas Bedard only 30. Since the Jays are not in the mix to compete next year why not try a high upside guy in the rotation just to temp fate into letting everything click next season – for the fans sake.
MW: I don’t think it’ll happen unless they can sign those guys to contracts with reasonable team options for 2011 and/or beyond.
- scottmichael,
- darrell bishopindeed discouraging that we inevitably look to be losing such a great pitcher & superb performer as doc h. is. but also at the same time an exciting era beginning with the face of this franchise changing in the near future.
change is always exciting in a way isn’t it? a new beginning. a new future. and the sheer anticipation that comes with it all.
fun fun fun…….isn’t it?
but i’ll tell you, young alex a. better get some quality everyday position player(s) and/or starting pitching out of this deal to hitch the wagon to for the foreseeable future or there will be certainly hell to pay.
but no pressure alex.
and take your time……..
Michael,
There was some questionable umpiring in the post-season this year. Do you think this is the year we see Manager’s with the ability to do instant replay challenges, sort of like in the NFL? Do you think the issue will be brought up at the GM meetings?
Also, what team in MLB would you say currently has the best minor league system, in terms of top level prospects?
Thanks.
MW: Evidently it wasn’t brought up, according to Bud Selig. I would like to see a manager be able to challenge a call – surely it wouldn’t waste as much time as a manager going out to argue with no chance of anything being changed. And I have no idea who has the most top-level prospects.
- Uncle Benyes true michael. i too remember lots of people thinking & saying that about the proposed rios linceum deal at that time.
- darrell bishopbut apparently j.p. thought it was a real good idea.
and it looks like he was right and boy was he ever…..
and btw michael,
i recall at the time of that potential trade the san fran gm seemed much more approachable about moving matt cain for rios & hold on to linceum (and who could blame him really)
and i know cain’s stats weren’t very good for 08 but looked pretty decent last season just past.
so what do you think now michael? in hindsight based on what rios is currently contributing do you think even the cain deal shoulda been consummated?
but i believe in fairness to j.p. that would not have a looked like a fair deal (at that time) in the eyes of the fans of the team based on the return for young roberto c.
MW: There was a rumour at the time that the Giants were simply dangling Lincecum to use as a bait-and-switch, and that they really wanted the Jays to take Cain, and I remember saying at the time that I would have done Rios for Cain and something, but nothing ever came of it. It was a 1-for-1, Rios for Lincecum, or nothing.
- darrell bishopHaren deserved better.
MW: Really, this should all be in one comment.
- Wyatt Bailey