2:10 PM Eastern
So it turns out in my haste to get the NL Rookie of the Year post up, I got misconfused, thinking that only the senior circuit hardware was being handed out today and that the A.L. award would be given later in the week.
Oops.
Well, had I not misremembered the timing of the awards, I would have written a brilliant tome on how great a season Andrew Bailey had and how he would have been my easy choice (if you don’t believe me, see if you can go back and listen to a Rookie-of-the-Year debate Jerry, Alan and I had in mid-September) but how I didn’t think that the voters would give it to him and that either Rick Porcello or Jeff Niemann would likely bring it home. Never would I have thought, though, that Ricky Romero wouldn’t get a single vote.
And now that we know the N.L. winner, I’ll say I’m surprised that Coghlan won it. I’m also surprised that Hanson finished behind Happ, but the writers must have given an edge to those 40 extra innings Happ pitched, which isn’t unfair. My guy got two third-place votes. Oh, well.
If you want to read my thoughts prior to 2:00 PM Eastern, back when I thought the only award of the day would be the N.L. Rookie, please enjoy below!
1:59 PM Eastern
As I wound up my daily five-mile constitutional this afternoon, the thought occurred to me - the BaseBall Writers Association of America begins giving out its major post-season awards today, I should really put up a post about it.
I’ll post prior to each award being handed out (though generally a little priorer than this time) to let you know who I think should win that day’s prize and who I think will win that day’s prize. The two are often not the same.
Some awards are slam-dunks - this year it’s the NL Manager and MVP and it should be the AL MVP too, but it might not. There are always some awfully tough ones and this year we start with one of those - National League Rookie of the Year.
There are a few good candidates for the award - J.A. Happ of the Phillies and Chris Coghlan of the Marlins were constant contributors all season, Tommy Hanson of the Braves came up in June and was fantastic, Garret Jones of the Pirates had an incredible half-season, Randy Wells of the Cubs started fast and fell to Earth, but not that far, Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates and Dexter Fowler did the on-base plus speed lead-off man thing, with McCutchen providing a little more pop. Any of them could win it.
There seems to be a groundswell for Coghlan, who was chosen by the Marlins in the supplemental round of the 2006 draft as compensation for the Blue Jays’ signing A.J. Burnett. He went eight spots after Daniel Bard and five spots ahead of Joba Chamberlain (the Jays got Travis Snider in the first round that year). Coghlan’s most impressive number for the voters this season was his batting average - .321 put him 6th in the National League. He combined that with a terrific .390 OBP and .460 SLG, but hit only nine home runs and stole only eight bases. Generally, slow-and-steady-wins-the-race doesn’t take home major awards. One usually needs to hit a bunch of bombs or steal a bunch of bases to go with that high batting average in order to bring home hardware.
Jones is an interesting case. The former Minnesota Twin didn’t play his first game of 2009 until July 1st, and in almost exactly half a season (82 games) hit .293/.372/.567 with 21 doubles and 21 homers. Fantastic numbers and a sure winner of the award if he did it over a full season, but can you give the prize to someone who missed almost the entire first half? Rookies have been late call-ups and still won, most recently the Hebrew Hammer, Ryan Braun, but he - and most others of his ilk - came up no later than late May.
It’s tough to separate the two top pitchers, Happ and Hanson, and not just because both their names start with an “H”. Happ was up the whole year, going 12-4, 2.93 with a 1.23 WHIP while moving back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation (23 starts, 12 relief appearances). Hanson came up late, but made almost as many starts as Happ (21) and went 11-4, 2.89 with a 1.18 WHIP. Hanson pitched almost 40 fewer innings, allowing 44 fewer hits, but had only three fewer strikeouts. Happ had three complete games and two shutouts, Hanson didn’t have any of either.
Who would I give it to? Garrett Jones. Half-season be damned, he still had 358 plate appearances, which is a swell sample size and not completely out-of-the-ordinary for a rookie. You can’t argue with a .939 OPS in my books - that’s better than Adam Lind’s.
Who’s going to win? Well, I would hope it would be Jones, because that would mean that the voters are wise, right-thinking folk. I think it’ll come down to Hanson or Coghlan, though, and likely go to Hanson. By the time you read this, you’ll already know.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome.
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Hi Mike - not on topic but just wondering whatever happened to Ben Sheets? Is he done? If not, would he be a fit for the Jays? Always liked watching him when healthy.
Thanks;
Mike.
MW: Sheets had elbow surgery in February and is still recovering. His agent says that he’ll be ready for Spring Training and that he should be an impact free agent, which means he’ll be priced out of the Blue Jays’ range.
- mikeMike
In all the stuff I’ve read about AA ramping up scouting etc., I haven’t seen where the Jays rank in MLB regarding the size of their staff. Are they bringing it back up to the norm, or going beyond?
MW: Good question, but quantity’s not the major issue.
- DanHey, mike … With respect to the “building” process, any chance “Aaron Cibia”/ Jackson get a shot this year at c/ss ( who do you see manning those positions this year) … Could u stop referring to Braun as the Hebrew Hammar, all due respect to your shared heritage, that was THE absolute worst movie I’ve seen, ever … Also, was/were there any issues between Cito and Acardo n Ruiz, given how Cito used them, or moreso didn’t … Keep up the good work …
MW: First of all, the Hebrew Hammer was a phenomenal movie. Easily Adam Goldberg and Judy Greer’s best work. Arencibia might get a shot at mid-season, depending on the catching situation and how he plays, Jackson is still in A-ball, there’s no need at all to throw him into the fire. Accardo didn’t have any issues with Cito - he didn’t blame him at all for how his year went. Ruiz? See above.
- HappyBrandon Phillips is on the market and it seems that Jays fans would be ecstatic in getting him. I think it would be a positive mood because he is a better player then Encarnacion but I don’t think he is too much better. In an entire healthy season, a realistic projection for Encarnacion may be .260 AVG, .340 OBP, .440 SLG, 5 SB. Brandon Phillips may be .280 AVG, .320 OBP, .440 SLG, 25 SB. The difference may be that Phillips can run a little bit and be better defensively if he is successful as a third baseman. Also, he can bat in the leadoff spot for the Jays and even though his on base is a little low, the loss of Scutaro will create a huge loss at the top of the order. I think that Phillips is a decent ball player but Jays fans should temper their excitement. Your thoughts?
MW: Why on Earth would you ever put Phillips in the lead-off spot. I’m not a fan of his because I think he pumps up his numbers way too much against lefties, who you don’t see nearly as often. Against right-handed pitching, Phillips hit .267/.324/.416 in 2009, .247/.293/.383 in 2008 and .262/.310/.428 in 2007. I’d rather have Encarnacion.
- DomenickHello Mike,
Re Romero not receiving any votes. Do you think this is partly because he plays in Toronto? If you think it is, what I don’t understand is why playing in Toronto is any worse publicity-wise than playing in some of the smaller cities in the US. Are baseball writers more familiar with the Brewers or the Royals than the Blue Jays?
MW: Maybe, a little. Toronto has really been an afterthought on an MLB-wide basis for the last 15 years or so. More likely, Romero didn’t get any votes because he didn’t have as good a year as Bailey, Porcello or Niemann.
- katehttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/runnin-the-bases-part-1
Jays rank #9 in baserunning.
MW: Overall. 5th in the American League according to this metric.
- RenegadeI would have given it to Jones myself. Ryan Howard had less plate appearances (312) when he won the award in 2005, so it shouldn’t matter that he only played half a season. It doesn’t matter anymore anyway as they gave it to Coghlan.
I heard on the Fan590 today that the Jays are looking at 2B Brandon Phillips from the Reds. I assume they would move Hill back to SS if they got him. Phillips hits for power, but he strikes out too much and hits for a mediocre average, which would probably only drop with him coming to a new league. I believe they could do better. Whats your opinion?
MW: See above. But Phillips would be moving to third if the Jays brought him in, I believe.
- AndreMike - my last comment on AL CY before the writers decision comes down tomorrow. I’ve been posting on MLB.com my thoughts on how Halladay deserves strong consideration based on the much tougher competition he faced compared to Greinke/Felix. Doc for example had 7 wins from his 11 starts vs Bos/NYY/LAA. Zach had only 3 starts vs those teams. Anyway I know I’m preaching to the choir on Doc.
I think Zack will edge out King Felix for the CY. I noticed that in starts longer than 6 innings, Zack had 6 starts of 3 hits or less. Only 2 more than King Felix but it’s an edge in “dominance”.
I just hope that the writers at least put Doc ahead of CC in the voting. Its a shame Doc had to work through all the distraction JP created for him - it even sucked the fun out of the All-Star start for Doc.
Thanks for being there for we die-hard Jays fans this season.
MW: I think you’re giving voters too much credit.
- RezHey Mike. When does the voting for the Ford C Frick award start? I haven’t forgotten about Mr Cheek! I know it couldn’t have started yet because you would have let us know! Also when will you be eligable to vote for who gets into Cooperstown?
MW: I’ll never be eligible to vote, unless I get a job writing for a newspaper. Voting for the Frick starts on December 1st.
- Matt in BCMike,
Could you please explain why Vernon was playing with injuries for 2 seasons? He injured his wrist and shoulder in 2007, had shoulder surgery that off-season but not the wrist surgery, played with a presumably injured wrist in 2008, again, didn’t have surgery in the 08 off season and then plays the full 09 season knowing full well his wrist was still injured? I don’t get it.
MW: You have to get into the mind of the pro athlete. They think playing hurt is a point of pride. They’re told to put it all on the line anytime they can as long as they’re physically able to walk out onto the field. It’s not Vernon-specific. As I said before, someone who is not on the field has to be the grown-up and tell guys they can’t play when injuries are preventing them from contributing.
- JoachimHey Mike,
If the Angels are still offering Wood, Weaver and a kid, would you take it? Now that JP’s soft-tossing-lefty-fixation is no longer in the picture (Saunders over Weaver? Really?), do you think AA will revisit that offer? (Of course he’ll look at everything, duh. But I mean seriously consider it.) I like that offer a lot better than the Drabek/Brown thing they were looking at. Also, if Doc ever ends up a Yankee, I will strongly consider guerrilla/terrorist action: ie. mustarding the mens room at Rogers Centre, water-ballooning the mascot, ordering pizza’s to AA’s residence (but not paying for them) and lastly (and most heinously) putting flaming turd bags on random AA employee porches. I mean Bean town would be bad, but nothing could be worse than NY. Nothing.
Please Mike, say it ain’t so.
MW: If the Yankees make the best offer and it sets the Jays up nicely for the next five years or so, Halladay will go to New York. I wouldn’t bet on it, though. As for Weaver, Wood and a kid - it depends on a few things. Weaver is going into arbitration, and would only be under control through the end of 2012. Wood still has six years of control, but his development seems to have stalled - is he still a shortstop of the future? I’d like to give him the chance to do it, for sure, but I think they’d be looking for more than just him and a kid for down the line.
- peteMike I wonder if you could give me some feedback on Robert Bell who pitched in Dunedin this year. His stats as a closer were awfully good.
Very good WHIP with high strikeouts to innings pitched and very few walks.
Does he have a chance for a look this year?( I believe he just turned 24).
MW: I can’t give you any feedback other than what you’ve given me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him pitch, but I know that the Blue Jays like what they have. He’s going into his 3rd year pro, so there’s no need to put him on the 40-man roster as yet - he’ll only get a look this year if he goes to AA and dominates and then has success at AAA and forces their hand. It’s Bobby Bell, by the way.
- mike glattMy reasoning for putting Phillips in the leadoff spot is because of his speed. I guess my argument may be a bit weak but they really don’t have a very good option once Scutaro leaves. The only reasonable guy to plug in there is Overbay but Cito doesn’t seem to like him much. Who is a decent option? Wilner, I don’t think you can pick one. We can probably agree on 2 things. One is that neither Phillips or Encarnacion are decent at third base and two, that the Blue Jays don’t have a leadoff hitter. If it were up to me I would have Overbay there and Wells would be my second choice. No logic in Wells, just a desperate hunch.
MW: You seem to think that speed helps when it’s sitting on the bench after having gotten out - I don’t. I can’t agree that neither Encarnacion NOR Phillips is decent at third base. Encarnacion was fine there, he just has some issues with a few throws, and Phillips is a terrific defender at second, I see no reason why he wouldn’t be good at third, too.
- Domenick