6:30 PM Eastern
The girlies have a long weekend off from school, so we packed up the ol’ Vista Cruiser and hit the road to visit some cousins in the lovely metropolis of Detroilet. Here I thought it’d be a relatively baseball-free weekend, but as we headed down the 402 on the way to Sarnia, I got a call from the Jays’ communications guru Jay Stenhouse asking if I got his e-mail about this afternoon’s conference call.
I didn’t - so it’s a good thing Jay is so conscientious about letting us all know when something is up.
Alex Anthopoulos had promised the media and the fans that he’d reveal his plan for the franchise before he left for the GM’s meetings in Chicago, and true to his word, he wanted to follow through. I managed to get on the call (though I missed the second question because I was crossing the border - how inconvenient) and Alex revealed his vision for the franchise which was as I expected.
The Blue Jays will NOT load up for the 2010 season, failing to take advantage of their last year of Roy Halladay and the fact that they won’t have to give up a first-round pick if they sign any free agents. Instead, they will build on what they have in an effort to build a perennial contender down the line.
It’s not a rebuild - they’re not going to break up the team in order to start all over again. Alex said that the Jays have plenty of good, young players, just not enough. He believes that the core of all the young pitchers, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, J.P. Arencibia, etc. is awfully strong, but not ready yet and that talent must be added.
This probably means that we’ve seen the last of Roy Halladay in a Blue Jays’ uniform, which is a real shame, but was probably inevitable. The shame of it all isn’t that the Jays are going to trade arguably the best homegrown player they’ve ever had, and a potential Hall of Famer, but rather that they had him for eight seasons of awesome and couldn’t put a good enough team around him to do any serious damage.
If they’re not going to “go for it” this year, then trading Halladay is the smartest thing they can do. Anthopoulos again said all the right things - the Jays would love to lock him up long-term, but his timetable for winning is likely different from theirs. The truth is, as fantastic as Halladay has been and as much of a horse as he’s been able to be since the forearm strain that cost him almost half a season in 2004, you’re taking a big chance in locking him up for a ton of money for his age 34-37 seasons - especially when you’re probably not going to need him to be the ace of a championship staff until he’s 36.
We also heard that one of Alex’s goals is to put together the best scouting and player development staff that money can buy. A worthy goal, no doubt, but one that he believes will take some time. There are people currently working in baseball who Alex would love to hire, but some of them are beholden to other teams for a while yet. Remember, the Jays had to wait a year to bring in Tony LaCava, and that’s a move that has worked out awfully well.
Alex said he’d be very active on the trade front. That’s not to say that he’s going to make a ton of trades, but that at least he’ll be in on every discussion of every player who is on the market. He talked to the Royals about Mark Teahen and to the Marlins about Jeremy Hermida, but there wasn’t a fit in either case. I’m happy to hear this, because I still remember a conversation I had with Gord Ash back in May of 1998 when word got out that the Marlins picked up Mike Piazza just to flip him for prospects. I asked Ash if the Blue Jays would try to deal for the all-star catcher (that was the Tim Johnson year, and the Jays were floating around the .500 mark at the time). Ash told me that the Jays would have to have interest in Piazza, but that the Marlins were likely going to hang on to him for two or three weeks. He was traded to the Mets three days later.
Free agency isn’t the way to build a team, said the new G.M. He said that the best use of free agents is to bring them in when a team is ready to compete, when they’ll come in as the final pieces to the puzzle to put a team over the top, the way the Jays did it in the early ’90s. The way to build a perennial contender is through player development and through trades. Not necessarily through the draft - Alex noted that generally about 2/3 of players on active rosters didn’t arrive on their team through the draft - but that the draft is a good way to procure assets that can be used in future trades.
I don’t know about you, but I love a G.M. who is very active on the trade market. If Alex is dealing prospects for young, provenish controllable players, then that’s a great thing.
The “build” mode also likely spells the end of Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas as Blue Jays. The Jays will pick up three extra picks before the second round of the draft if those two sign with other teams. John McDonald doesn’t bring back a draft pick if he leaves, so he could very well come back. Having Johnny Mac as the starting shortstop for a building team that doesn’t have a great shortstop prospect would at least make the fans happy, and that’s not a bad thing given yet another non-contending season.
As I’ve said before, this isn’t the plan I would have put forth (and did, actually, put forth back in September). I believe that an infusion of cash could lead to some good trades for established-but-getting-too-expensive players from elsewhere and some strong free agent signings that could turn the Jays into a contender immediately. Alex says he doesn’t want to sacrifice four years down the road in order to try to make a big splash next year. Not only do I not mind sacrificing four years down the road, I don’t think you necessarily have to in order to make that splash.
It doesn’t mean that I’m right and that Alex is wrong. His is, as well, a very cromulent way of thinking. If he can build a sustainable contender, one that will spend with the Anaheims, Bostons and Chicagos of the world, then Blue Jays fans will be very happy in a couple of years.
The one thing that bugged me was that Alex mentioned a few times that the Jays were a 75-win team this past season, and it’s highly unlikely that a 75-win team picks up the 20 wins necessary to become a playoff team in the A.L. East in one off-season. This is true, except for two things. First, the Jays weren’t your traditional 75-win team in 2008. They had a positive run differential (+27), which suggests they were really closer to about an 82 or 83-win team. They have very good young pitching coming back and getting healthy, and they had to deal with an unexpected awful year from their 30 year-old supposed-to-be-marquee player.
Second, a 75-win team that raises its payroll by 50% and brings in five or six high-quality players via trades and free agent signings has a far better shot than most others to raise its win total into the mid-90s neighbourhood.
I’d have gone reload, but the Jays are going build, and I have a lot of faith in Alex that he’ll be able to follow through on his plan and build the Jays into a perennial contender over time. It shouldn’t take that long, and I do agree with Alex that the fans will give him some time. After a lost year, floating in the ether with no direction, the Blue Jays finally have a clear one.
I guess before I go I should say something about the Yankees winning the World Series, since I didn’t post after Game 6. It’s disappointing, of course, but they most certainly deserved it. The Yanks went 11-4 in the post-season and were never really threatened. It’s amazing to see, though, that with by far the highest payroll in the game the Yanks still only had four pitchers they could trust (although that’s three more than the Phillies). It hurts, what can I tell you? I was surprised that Hideki Matsui was named World Series MVP, given that he only started three of the six games and had just 13 at-bats - the lowest total for any non-pitcher winner of the award. I would have given it to Mariano Rivera myself or maybe (gulp) Derek Jeter. Yep, I said it.
Congrats to the Phillies for putting up a reasonable fight. As I said in July, were I Ruben Amaro, Jr., I’d have tried to deal for Roy Halladay even after I got Cliff Lee, since both deals were right there to be made. Had the Phillies been willing to give up those prospects (and they used J.A. Happ for all of 6 1/3 innings in the playoffs), they’d likely have their second straight World Series and be well on their way to a third straight.
We had a fine hour-long WorldSeriesTalk after Game 6 to wrap up the year, and here it is, for your listening pleasure:
It was a frustrating and long year on the Blue Jays beat, but it’s in the rear-view mirror and better times are ahead (to quote the great John Winston Ono Lennon - “it can’t get no worse”). I’ll be posting on the blog periodically throughout the off-season, as always, whenever the Blue Jays do something of note or whenever too much time goes by between posts.
By the way, just a note about the travel genius that I am. Plotting out the map to Detroilet, it turns out it’s only two miles longer to go through Sarnia and cross the border there than it is to go through Windsor. Also just two miles longer to take the QEW/403 through Hamilton/Brantford than it is to go along the 401. And surely we’d make up a ton of time by going through the quicker border crossing and avoiding the 401 through Mississauga and K-W/Cambridge, right? Of course right! But we ran into brutal construction on both the 403 and the 402, costing us at least 45 minutes in total. Argh. I’m going home through Windsor.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome - comments that have been left since Game 5 of the World Series (and those that come in after this post) will be answered and posted by Monday afternoon.
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The fans will give AA some time. But they won’t give him a lot of time. He’ll get next year without too much of a murmer, but after that all bets are off. This is a mean disgruntled unhappy fan-base and we’ve all just about had enough blue sky and craziness.
However politically AA did the right thing. By holding off from asking for a big payroll hike five minutes after he got his promotion he looks like a careful guy and Rogers will like that.
- isabella reyesLook I have to agree with double A on this one. He is doing a good job and even if Halladay goes the Jays have a potential rotation of Marcum, Romero, McGowan (Hopefully), Zeppy, and maybe an added starter…not bad if all can come back strong. Is it just me Mike or do you think Mark Z has the potential to be a future Halladay with Romero not far behind? This will be year two for these guys and look what happened with the Rays. I like the potential Arizona trade, make that happen and catcher is covered, put Ruiz or Lind at first with the other DH’ing, find a short stop, hope that E5 Edwin solves that issue now that Butter has more time to work with him and his hitting comes around with a fixed wrist. Snyder is due to explode, Wells is due to turn things around, find us a right fielder and the Jays have a chance to be bigger than everyone thinks even without Halladay, but the potential is a good reason to keep Halladay and see what happens. Millar leaving will take that overused underachieving option out of Cito’s hands. Maybe add Johnny Mac as everyday SS. It’s not that bad. I think you’re right Mike, they may only need to plug a few holes here. Maybe you do spend if you can.
MW: You can’t agree with me and with Alex about the direction for 2010, though. And no, I don’t see a future Halladay in either Romero or Rzepczynski, though I like them both a lot. Halladay is an all-timer.
- Chriscromulent?
MW: Very, don’t you think?
- OzRobHey Mike. I actually just want to applaud you for cutting off that idiot on the last program who said that Alex Anthopouls “knows absolutely nothing”. Don’t bother waisting radio time on guys like that! I really don’t know anything about Alex but I am willing to give him a “vacation period” before I expect to see any meaningful results. I think we all should! Have a good 4 months off.
MW: Thanks!
- Matt in BCThis doesn’t surprise me either. I knew there was virtually no way the Jays were going to load up for 2010; there is going to have to be a bit of a rebuild (or ‘build’, as AA euphemistically called it). I didn’t think Doc would be traded at the deadline, but would be in the offseason after Ricciardi got canned. That looks like it’s going to happen as well. Come April 2010 he’ll be starting for someone else, and it’ll be a sad day for Blue Jays fans. Still, we missed the playoffs with him here, so we can miss them without. If the rebuild works out, then it’s worth it.
- Flaming Moeu r right mike the jays should have won 83.5 games last year run d +27
MW: Hard to win half a game, though.
- JAYS FAN FROM THE STARTHi Mike,
first off, thanks for all your hard work this season! You had to put up with a lot, from crazy baseball happenings, to quite a, well, let’s say energetic, fanbase. I certainly looked forward to the blog everyday.
On to baseball. Until now, I was mostly opposed to trading Halladay - he is definitely my favourite player to watch. But recently I realized he would be even more fun to watch in the playoffs, it really would just make for great baseball. So send him to a contender. Just not the Yankees.
Anyhow, what do you think are the most likely destinations? Are the Phillies still a viable option?
Thanks Mike! Enjoy the offseason!
MW: The Phillies are still an option, as are the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Mets and maybe even Rangers (if they can convince Halladay to come).
- RoryI always enjoy listening to you and reading your blog, Mike. Thanks!
My only comment about the Yankees is, money prevails, to the detriment of major league baseball in general in my opinion. A number of major league teams are just development teams for the few.
It will be sad to see Halladay go. He’s the kind of person you want as the front face to your team on the field and later as an ambassador. What a shame, but business is business isn’t it.
If Burnett deserves a ring so does Roy, big time.
I agree with your comment about the one, two punch the Phillies could have created with Halladay and Lee.
Anyway, one more time, its wait till next year (or longer), a seemingly constant refrain for Toronto sports fans.
- PeterHi Mike
I, like many fans will be tremendously disappointed if Doc is traded but I sure hope he goes into the HOF wearing a Blue Jays hat.
What is the likelihood of that,if he gets into the HOF?
MW: It depends on what he accomplishes outside Toronto.
- Richard from ARPretty fair analysis of the current Jay situation. One might even say a cromulent analysis. (Pretty big word there for you normally grammatically-challenged radio heads)I would keep Doc at any cost by convincing him that this year was an aberration and that surely the next can’t be as bad injury-wise and hitting-wise. I think Doc likes the relative anonymity of TO.If he goes,I think the 11,000 seat mark might become the norm. I might even quit watching (on TV of course) and listening to the fan when I’m at the lake.You’re right; if the Phillies had him, they would have won the WS.Let’s hope it’s at least another 9 year wait for Baby Steinbrenner and his band of mercenaries.
MW: Unfortunately, keeping Halladay is a losing proposition, because if he isn’t traded then he walks at the end of the season for two draft picks. I’m a little concerned that you think cromulent is a “big word for…..radio heads”.
- Carl HarveyMike,
I like your thinking for re-load instead of build. One thing that I can’t stop thinking about:I know this isn’t basketball where you can build around one player, but Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, and we don’t have other top tier pitchers in our system, and our best chance ’superstar’ position player is already here (Snider). If we were ever to compete in the next five years, doesn’t it make sense to do it with him, rather than without? Doesn’t that automatically give us a one-up on most other competitive teams?! If we were to get Bay, Figgins Fielder, and a number 2-3 pitcher, don’t we become the Phillies but with a real bullpen? Tell Alex! Quick!
MW: I have already told him. But where do the five years come from? Halladay is only here for one.
- ShaunAlso, why would Cito ‘I heart washed up veterans’ Gaston manage a building team with young guys? The thought of it is making my brain hurt.
- ShaunGot your email, Thanks. I will take all of the options into consideration. On to BJ news…..Overbay for Snyder? Would that be just to clear payroll while J.P. Arencibia gets ready for the majors because this Dback doesnt have impressive numbers.
MW: If you only look at batting average then yes, Snyder doesn’t have impressive numbers.
- Nicholas Laffinmike, there’s still a LITTLE chance that we can see Roy Halladay in a Jays uniform this year. If the ‘building’ Jays look like real contendors and are first in the AL East at the deadline, and the team that they traded Halladay to is out of it, it would make sense to trade for him, wouldn’t it?
MW: That’s not going to happen.
- TheSunkenZealotI’m so sure you used the word “cromulent” in a bloggage posting. If you’re putting your U of T degree to good use, then so shall I: I hope you find/found the food in Detroilet salubrious.
Ahem. Nice to see A.A.’s plan for ‘10 and beyond. I can’t help but think this team will end up being somewhat like the Minnesota Twins of the AL East in the next few years - strong, unheralded pitching, solid lineup, consistently contending on the basis of bold trades and a few FA signings to round out the roster at the appropriate time.
MW: Why am I getting compliments on the use of the word “cromulent”? IT’S NOT A REAL WORD!
- Adrian, co-alumnusMike,
Jeez give A-Rod a break! Now you’re ragging on him for not celebrating correctly?
You gotta be kidding me..
MW: Am I wrong? And don’t forget that I’m the one who has been thoroughly dismissive of all the “A-Rod can’t hit in the playoffs” crap.
- RajivMike,
Why do you hate Derek Jeter?
MW: I don’t. I hate the myth of Derek Jeter. I hate the cult of Derek Jeter.
- RajivMike,
I have often disagreed with you in the past (esp. on Ricciardi and his record), but I’m more on your side of the analysis than on that of the new regime. Alex Anthopoulos has said all the right things since geting his job, but so did J.P. and so did Gord Ash before him. It’s what’s called spin. I do think Alex is dreaming in technicolour if he thinks that he’ll get anything other than a short leash for his “plan” from the fans and from the media. To be blunt about it, what is it about Alex that should make me buy into HIS “plan” any more than into that of J.P. or of Ash?
What will make his life more difficult, though, is that we have just gone through 8 useless years when the Jays simply refused to compete financially with the teams that they NEEDED to compete with. And aside from some cliches and mealy-mouthed promises, I see nothing in Alex’s blueprint that makes me believe anything is about to change on that front. I’m a big believer in having good scouts and in investing in player development, but there is nothing more effective than simply spending money to get yourself a Sabbathia, or a Texeira, or an A-Rod. Or all of them. Of course, in that case, you also have to be prepared for getting stuck with a Pavano et al…
I remember all the grandiose plans that J.P. announced in those heady Moneyball days 8 years ago. We know how that all played out, and we also know how Rogers’ refusal to spend with the big boys played a key role. The onus on the Jays (aka ROGERS) and on Alex Anthopoulos right now is to prove that they aren’t crying wolf. The blueprint announcement does nothing for that…
Alex
MW: We’ll find out if Rogers puts its money where its mouth is a couple of years down the road. You can only say “we’ll spend with the Bostons and L.A.’s” for so long without actually having to do it.
- AlexThanks for a great year on the airwaves and on the blog, Mike! Let’s hope that we can enjoy a productive off-season by AA and maybe even some surprise performances next season by our Blue Jays. Enjoy a well deserved rest.
MW: Thanks.
- ChrisThe giant fatal flaw in the “rebuilding plan” and letting veterans leave for drfat picks coming the other way is that the Jays actually have to decide to sign the picks (almost) regardless of price.
We saw after the last draft that they weren’t willing to do just that. So if they’ve now changed course and are willing to lock up drafted prospects, it makes the error of not doing that previously, all the more glaring.
So we have a new GM with no consistancy from the other decision makers in the mix, many of them still in the fold.
MW: How can you sign the players you draft regardless of price?
- GaryMike, you always gotta check out the construction when planning your routes!
To read between the lines of the Jays’ plans, what I read was that Rogers wasn’t going to commit the money necessary to make the team a contender this year.
From a fan base, I feel it’s going to be another year of mediocre performance and a lack of attendance that will only spurn Rogers to shed payroll again and have more “rebuilding years”.
I disagree with trading Halladay. He’s a franchise player and I see him with the capability of winning 20 games every year every year until he turns 40. Yep, there’s the risk of injury, but he’s the type of player and community representative who will give it all every day. This includes the leadership in the rotation and the ‘pen.
The Jays were 75-87, and I am with you, they were probably a .500 team with some bad luck. In a division with the Yankees and the Bosox, .500 is okay. The reason why the team didn’t contend were probably the lack of a closer in BJ Ryan, lack of a clean up hitter in Vernon Wells (and the stubbornness to stick him out there in the 4 spot day after day), and the inability to platoon effectively which inevitably gets you in very unfavorable situations where the opponent can simply switch to an opposite throwing pitcher.
Fixing this does not call for a rebuild or for a slew of trades. ‘Rebuild’ to me means that Rogers does not want to spend the money to make the team a contender because they’ve seen that AL East teams other than the Yanks and BoSox only make the playoffs every 10 years. So they are going to try it a la Tampa Bay style and hope for a lot of luck to make it.
As for the Yankee$ winning, they ab$olutely de$erved it. The Yankee$ with their $200 million payroll $hould be winning every World $eries. The fact that they don’t make it to the big show every year should represent a massive failure to the Yankees.
MW: Nobody said the word “rebuild”. You’re right, Halladay could be productive for a few more years, but what good does that do the Jays when he leaves as a free agent after next season?
- TimMW - I was surprised that Hideki Matsui was named World Series MVP, given that he only started three of the six games and had just 13 at-bats - the lowest total for any non-pitcher winner of the award. I would have given it to Mariano Rivera myself or maybe (gulp) Derek Jeter. Yep, I said it.
Chase Utley or Cliff Lee anybody ??
MW - Alex talked to the Royals about Mark Teahen and to the Marlins about Jeremy Hermida, but there wasn’t a fit in either case.
Where was he in the JJ Hardy talks ?? The Twins got him for a .650 OPS outfielder.
MW: Chase Utley or Cliff Lee? How do you give a World Series MVP to a player on the team that loses in six games? And Lee gave up five runs in his second start. Alex was involved in the JJ Hardy talks - Gomez’ .650 OPS isn’t what attracted the Brewers to him.
- stat ladyMike, I think that Alex is taking the team in the right direction. Even if that means trading Doc. It;s just too bad they didn’t sign some of their top 4 draft picks last year if this is the direction they are going. I understand Beeston was leading that charge so if they are going to build, lets hpe they spend money to sign their top draft picks. I hope they get a winfall for Doc as well
MW: They did sign their top draft pick last year.
- Kenfirst of all i cant believe you said jeter should of won the world series MVP, you must of woken up on the wrong side of the bed. Second of all there was an article in the ny post by Joel Sherman saying the Blue Jays will only get 60 cents on the dollar for Halladay compared to what they were offered at the trading deadline. what do you think of that?
MW: I think that’s completely wrong. I didn’t say Jeter “should of” won the MVP, but I would HAVE given it to him over Matsui, for sure. The guy had a terrific series.
- elliottMike, if the Overbay - Snyder trade had gone down, how furious would you have become fielding questions on your blog about Travis Snyder and Chris Snider? Possible coronary?
Keep up the good work, MW.
MW: Possible, for sure.
- timmyMike….Do you think the Red Sox would part with Ellsbury and Bard for Halladay or would the Jays want more? Or maybe Boston would want another warm body tossed in?
MW: I would want far more than that if I were the Jays.
- chris m.I am happy to support Anthopoulos’s plan. I’d like to see him put together a Minnesota/Boston type team with just baseball players; that is, perenially tough, skilled and well-managed with the big contracts targeted for the right players. I think not the least of the problem with the Jays was J.P.’s and the organization’s continual defense and lauding of an inefficient developmental system and a team that was supposedly just one or two moves away. I think fans will come out to support the kind of baseball team that puts in gritty, consistent efforts even if it doesn’t make the playoffs on a yearly basis.
- Will, OshawaHey Mike,
Love Jays talk and the blog! Keep up the stellar work!
Why do the Jays keep getting linked to Milton Bradley? Are they actually interested in adding him???
MW: I think that people see the Jays as a reasonable fit for Bradley given their hole in the outfield and their willingness to dump Vernon Wells’ contract.
- CameronI got bored doing work…so ive decided to provide you with a comprehensive plan (your welcome) for the jays, if I were to have the honor of being AA for the winter:
david wright for: romero + EE
Carlos Zambrano + Milton Bradley for: eat up 80% of all contracts + purcey, roenicke, jeroloman, overbay
Clay Bucholtz + 3 prospects for: Halladay
Joey Votto for: snider,arencibia, and zep
Russ Martin: 2-3 top remaining prospects (from halladay trade)
Lineup: Starters
Wright Zambrano
Hill Bucholtz
Votto Marcum
Lind Cecil
Wells Bedard(signing)
Bradley or stewart/Richmond
Martin
Dopiral
Inglett
PENANT!
- jpOne thing for sure AA is doing nicely is keeping everyone informed with the surface stuff at least and that is refreshing.
It was obvious the way the Jays were dumping payroll near the end of the season the route they were taking as to a re-build. MLB is one league where you can do that effectively! However, keeping your fan base is tougher when you do, and worse still the baseball season is made up of a lot more games than any other sport - hence seeing your team getting beat up on a daily basis makes it even tougher to be patient.
The Yankees will likely be even stronger in 2010 than they are right now and that says a lot. I agree 100% with you Mike as to Jeter being the WS MVP. He is a wonderful hitter to watch game after game a real craftsman at the plate. Seeing him wait out a pitch till it’s deep over the plate then slicing it to the opposite field is something not a lot of guys can do. Great eye and timing for sure.
Philly most certainly could have made a deal for Doc and with him and Lee pitching in the WS sure would have been special for them and their fans.
It will be tough to see Doc heading for Beantown for all you Jays fans! Some other “buzz” around Boston has Johnny Mac heading there also, so maybe a double whammy for Jays fans loosing two favourites. On the bright side, you will get to see plenty of them during the season.
Hope you had a great time in the “Motor City” Mike with your family. Take care and keep on doing what you do best. At least the fans will have you trying to keep them on an even keel during what could be a long 2010 season.
- Bob (from Burllington)A fine article, Mike. Thanks. To feed both yours and my pedantic side, and as a result of a particular pet peeve of mine among sportscasters and sportswriters, please differentiate “differential” and “difference”. +27 is the team’s run difference, not differential. A “differential” is the instantaneous difference between two quantities that vary over time. It’s a calculus term. A team’s run differential, then, is the rate of change of their run difference, which points to a trend, and not a single-point measurement.
As you were.
MW: I’ll try to remember that, but it’s a losing battle you’re fighting.
- J. B. Rainsbergerwas it a bad move to get rid of Brad Arnesberg?
MW: They didn’t get rid of Arnsberg, he left.
- lukespeak“Alex says he doesn’t want to sacrifice four years down the road in order to try to make a big splash next year. ”
I believe Alex, but hope that Rogers does what it takes to back him up. We will be getting Draft picks for Scutaro, but what good are draft picks when ownership does not give enough cash to sign the
MW: When they ask for too much money.
- Seanjeter won a gold glove…wow..
MW: I know. We HAVE to do something about this.
- jpHey Mike,
Don’t hate me for this, but I’ve done a bit of roster dreaming and armchair GM’ing.
My thought is that with two moves the Jays can easily put themselves in a solid position, create the best young team in baseball, and hopefully be able to compete no later than 2012, with 2011 not being too ridiculous.
Trade Roy Halladay to the Rockies for a package led by Dexter Fowler and Chris Iannetta. Jays get a catcher with massive potential, and a great outfielder with plenty of speed and a good bat to be the true lead-off hitter we’ve been missing.
The second move is to trade for Brandon Wood from the Angels, who may very well be expendable, and almost certainly if the Angels re-sign Chone Figgins. I’m not sure what it would take, but the Angels do have bullpen holes, so perhaps a package of Scott Downs or Jason Frasor and a pitching prospect.
This leaves the Jays with a lineup of:
Folwer (RF), Wood (SS), Lind (1B), Hill (2B), Wells (CF), Ruiz (DH), Encarnacion (3B), Iannetta (C), Snider (LF)
And a rotation full of the Jays young, high potential pitchers: Marcum, Romero, McGowan, Rzepczynski and Cecil.
Give this team 2010, and if needed 2011 to develop, but it really seems like a team to me that isn’t far at all from being able to compete. If a few of these youngsters don’t develop well, then you can fill in those wholes with FA’s or trades.
So quickly, I guess I just have two questions about this:
1) Is it realistic/possible?
2) Is that enough good young talent to compete soon in the AL East?
Sorry for a long message, thanks a lot for your time!
MW: You have to get Jhoulys Chacin back if you make a trade with the Rockies, both for the Chacin factor and because he’s awesome. Fowler seems to be a good one, too, though I’d like to see him improve from the left side. I don’t think Wood is all that expendable, but there’s a definite fit with the Rockies, if they’re interested.
- BrettHey Mike, hope your enjoying the off-season so far, even tho its less than a week old. Just wondering what free agents you would considering signing with everything AA has said so far about what direction they are going? I wouldnt mind seeing him sign Miguel Olivo if they cannot re-sign Barajas
MW: Olivo would be OK, but really no better than that. I don’t think the Jays will do much at all on the free-agent market. Maybe bring back Johnny Mac, maybe pull in a non-tender or two, but not much.
- ChrisHey Mike,
Now that we know the Blue Jays aren’t going for it next year, what team do you see Halladay starting next year with? What do you think the Blue Jays can get in return from this team? And also, what year do you predict it will be when we finally get back into the playoffs?
Thanks
MW: There will be plenty of suitors for Halladay, there are good fits in trade with Boston, Colorado, Philly, Texas and both L.A.-area teams, at least. I have no clue where he’ll wind up or what they’ll get back. I think the Jays could make a playoff push as early as 2011, if things break right.
- Jack OSports Illustrate seems to think that the Jays are actively looking for somebody to take Aaron Hill. Is this reality or just silliness?
MW: Hill isn’t a guy the Jays are looking to move.
- Sam McLeanHey Mike, I see rumors of Overbay being traded, if that happens and they move Lind to first base do you think the Jays may try to make a run at Delgado? He would be a great fit for a DH and if the jays could maybe get him for a 2 year deal at 6 mil plus incentives with maybe a vesting option for the 3rd year that could help the jays lineup for sure, do you think they would consider that if they dealt Overbay or would he be too expensive?
MW: I don’t think they’d see Delgado as part of the team when they’re ready to win.
- RoyceCromulent???? I can’t even find that one in the dictionary!
- Paulhello this is my first time bloging. mike what do you think are the stats that most contribute to how many games a team wins? like hitting with risp etc.?
MW: Runs scored and runs allowed, if you ask me.
- Big Jays FanSo is it New York or Boston who are going to trade for Halladay. Wondering…. Bard + X + X = Halladay? My qustion is really how valuable is that young arm to Boston and what on top of him would be required to make the Halladay trade acceptable to Toronto Management.
MW: Bard, Buchholz, Bowden and one of those good young bats ought to do it.
- JGAThe Rogers center is going to be empty next year. This franchise is a joke. I will not go to anymore games( i average about 10 a year with my two daughters). Goodbye Bluejays and good riddance.
MW: OK, see you around, I guess.
- jeffIt was nice to hear Alex tlak about no excuses and no B.S because they play in the AL east..Forget about all that “we can’t compete” blather that your good buddy Riccardi used to say..Man i’m feeling good about the Jays these days..The Albatross Riccardi was talking about was himself..
Maybe Alex read this blog because l’ve been saying it for a long time..Build up and then add..
This team isn’t that far off at all and it won’t take years for this team to compete for a playoff spot..
Good for Alex, better for the Jays..
- ray bUnfortunate, but as you say, completely not unexpected. I can’t say I see what “blowing up the team” would realistically mean beyond trading Halladay and letting Scutaro go. Who else actually has anything like a large contract that someone else would be willing to take off their hands? Presuming that no one would be that interested in taking Overbay’s contract, the only guy I can see who comes close to that description is Downs; everyone else except Wells (oh, I’m tempted to call him the Unmovable Object, but that would be cruel!) made under $3 million last year.
Anyway, it just doesn’t make sense to me not to strike now while the iron is warmish. Aces don’t grow on trees. Even the Yankees couldn’t find one to buy for years before Sabathia. If they set themselves up with a good base for years to come but another Halladay never happens along, it probably doesn’t do them much good.
- Cincinnatus C.“cromulent” - nice! Had to look it up. I should let you know that it has not made it into the Scrabble dictionary, for whatever that’s worth.
MW: I can’t believe it’s actually in a dictionary at all.
- GautamAgree the Yankees were the most “deserving” (not sure why the quotes; just felt like it). Their opposition didn’t execute - so much for Twins and Angels ball! - and they executed just enough.
One thing I really don’t like, though, more than the blown calls, is that you can get away with using just three starters. It’s incredible to me NY didn’t have 4 great starters with that payroll. Seems they had about 1 3/4 great pitchers - 1 Sabathia, 1/2 Burnett, and Petite is just pretty good these days imo. This kind of post-season schedule could kill my enjoyment of the post-season ball.
- GautamSo, in your mind, Anthopolous doesn’t plan to embiggen the team?
MW: Not quite yet.
- TylerMike,
First, let me thank you for keeping us up to date with baseball goings on and giving us a rational and reasonable assessment of what is happening to the Blue Jays. I am currently deployed to the Kingdom of Bahrain where, as you can imagine, there is not a whole lot of baseball. Needless to say, I am completely relying on you for the straight dope when it comes to all things Blue Jays. For that Mike, I wish to say thanks.
I have hope for next year. Either I am a hopeless optimist or an idiot - or some kind of combination of the two. I look forward to the return of Marcum (who I have always liked), McGowan (maybe) and Litsch. I also look forward to another year of watching Romero, Cecil , Snider, Lind, and Hill. Not sure who else will be back, though, so I guess I will take a wait and see on that.
I would like to say how utterly disappointed I am at Cito being back for another craptacular season of “managing” (you understand the reason for the quotes, I’m sure). I think you have already said all that need’s to be said on that so I will not parrot, but……ugh….just…..ugh.
Who do you see coming back in the bullpen next year? I sure would hate to see Downs or Tallet go, but I have a funny feeling….
Thanks again Mike.
MW: I think most of the bullpen will be back. They’ll try to move Downs, but would probably be able to get more for him at the deadline, but nobody else (except maybe Frasor) is a real financial concern.
- Darren in Carleton Place (now in Bahrain)Mike, just for fun, average out the yankees payroll between their last two world series. then avg out the rest of mlb (without the yankees payroll included) and see the total number the yanks outspent the avg mlb team. i’m pretty sure its over 1billion$. if anything it speaks to how incompetent they are…not how ‘great’ a franchise they have.
MW: Just for fun, I’ll let you do that. Why would you want me to have all the fun?
- marcyou think the yankees have some special pieces to the blue jays future puzzle? I’m sure a rotation of halladay, sabathia, burnett and pettite for the 2010 yankees screams (YANKEES BACK TO BACK CHAMPS) at the fans…..as long as the jays get something that much larger than what they find elsewhere on the market. what do you have in mind?
MW: There’s Jesus Montero, the young catcher, and a lot of people still like Austin Jackson after all these years. Rumour has it that Alex is a big fan of Ramiro Pena, though I’m not all that sure why that would be, and of course, there are Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.
- TheSunkenZealotHey Mike, just wondering, but whats your take on us hiring the Nat’s scouting director ? I thought ours was ok, and to be frank, that the Nat’s farm system was the worst in baseball. I know he’s the brainchild behind picking Strausburg, but beyond that ?! (Yes i should also give him the Zimmermans, but he has picked a lot of busts.)
Where did our guy go ? Do you think this is the best thing to give our future youth movement over to this guy ?
MW: Dana Brown is not the Blue Jays’ scouting director. He’s a special assistant to Alex Anthopoulos, and from all indications, it’s a good choice. The Blue Jays’ scouting director is now Andrew Tinnish, who was the assistant to Jon Lalonde, who is now in pro scouting for the Jays. Brown doesn’t have the keys to the house, he’s just one of the voices in Anthopoulos’ ear.
- DaveHey mike. Sorry to do this, but i get bored at work, so I think of how the jays should build.
I think it starts with a Halladay trade to the Dodgers. In return, they get Clayton Kershaw and Ivan DeJesus (.324/.419/.423) at shortstop. Kershaw is awesome and DeJesus projects as a great leadoff hitter. Also, A would likely be willing to move him, cause they have furcal at SS the next three years. If the Jays get an low level outfielder with speed and then these two, they would be set up.
Then, trade Overbay for a pair of young relief prospects, and Downs for whatever you can get.
The rotation going into next year would be:
romero
Marcum
Kershaw
Cecil
Zep
with Richmond, litsch, Macgowan, Stewart and bobby ray waiting in the wings.
I think this team would be well setup to compete in 2012. Thats the year of King Felix’s free agency. If the Jays throw money at him and sign him, they would have a number of top or mid level arms too many. At this point they would trade these two arms plus whatever else it takes to trade for an elite third baseman. Then, fill DH/1b slot with free agency, and you are a small step away from a complete team. Only a RF and a C, both of whom would only need to bat 8 and 9th, are left.
I understand that this is a looking forward a long ways, but thats what were supposed to be doing these days right?
Anyways, if AA made the trade with the Dodgers for those two players, I think that would just be nails.
Cheers
MW: I like the way you think.
- dave Jmike, there’s still a LITTLE chance that we can see Roy Halladay in a Jays uniform this year. If the ‘building’ Jays look like real contendors and are first in the AL East at the deadline, and the team that they traded Halladay to is out of it, it would make sense to trade for him, wouldn’t it?
MW: That’s not going to happen.
___________________________
Anything can happen in sports. You and I both know that. The Patriots can lose in the Super Bowl being 10 1/2 point favorites. The Jays can have a pretty good run differential yet their record doesn’t represent it. The Yankees can win the World Series by trusting four pitchers. The Rays made the World Series.
I don’t think they will be close to the hunt at the deadline. But if they are - i have my fingers crossed - wouldnt it make sense to trade for the best pitcher in baseball?
MW: It’s not going to happen.
- TheSunkenZealotMike, I think that Alex is taking the team in the right direction. Even if that means trading Doc. It;s just too bad they didn’t sign some of their top 4 draft picks last year if this is the direction they are going. I understand Beeston was leading that charge so if they are going to build, lets hpe they spend money to sign their top draft picks. I hope they get a winfall for Doc as well
MW: They did sign their top draft pick last year
Yeah they signed the top draft pick but I said “picks” I think you know what I meant, they didn’t sign their 2nd or 3rd pick. Not signing your picks over a few hundred K doesn’t sound like building to me. Sounds like cheaping out
MW: I took your saying that they didn’t sign some of their top 4 draft picks to mean you thought they didn’t sign any of them, sorry about that. You’re not alone in thinking that it seems the Jays “cheaped out” in dealing with those picks, but you have to remember that it’s all relative. If a guy is being offer $500K and wants $850K, sure the difference is only $350,000, but that’s 70% more than he was being offered.
- KenMr. Wilner,
Happy offseason. I like the way that AA is handling the team. I think you are right with your thoughts that fans will not be alienated this year as I believe that most fans are just looking for direction. Now that we have an idea of where the team is headed, its time to get excited about the future of this team.
Someone that I’d be interested in acquiring would be Ryan Doumit from the Pirates. He is a solid bat who can play catcher, first base and outfield. What do you think it would take to pry him away from the Pirates?
MW: Too much. They’ve looked into it.
- LoganMike:
A.A. talks about core, and adding to it. Where does he look for the pieces he needs? Is he up to trading 1 of Romero, Rzepczynski or Cecil plus ??? to get this done? I understand trading Halladay might happen. If it does, isn’t getting two pieces to the core a priority?
Welcome back!
MW: Welcome back? Thanks, I guess, but I didn’t go anywhere. I think that Alex is up to trading anyone if the right deal presents itself, and I don’t think he’ll be shy about moving prospects for prospects, if need be. There’s no question that getting two more pieces to add to the young core, at least, is a priority in trading Halladay.
- Richard SpackmanMike,
Are the Overbay trade rumors are being fueled by his potentially being a ringleader in the public mutiny against Cito?
If so, I am beginning to get a bit skeptical about AA’s decision making. I personally would have chosen Arnsberg & Overbay over Cito & the seemingly lesser talent that’s being mentioned in return for Overbay.
MW: No, the Overbay rumours are being fueled by the fact that he’s set to make $8 million in the final year of his contract - a year in which the Blue Jays won’t be competing. He wasn’t a ringleader in the mutiny.
- mikeMike!
Thanks again for a great season!
Was having a beer (or three) with some friends last night talking about what we’d like in a trade for Halladay.
The best scenarios which came up involved a straight-up with the Dodgers and 2nd place was some kind of 3-way deal with the Mets or Angels
Reasoning…
- There are few teams who could take on Roy’s future salary. These ones fit
- It would absolutely suck to trade him within our division (Buh-bye Boston and NYY)
- Both the Angels and Dodgers (esPECIALLY the Dodgers) showed that one big stud pitcher could have meant the difference between them going further in the playoffs versus not going.
- The Mets have enough money, but maybe not anything the Jays would want
So what would we realistically be able to get in return… Anyone who gets Roy is likely to be competing hard for the playoffs next year.
Dodgers - Would the Dodgers give up Kemp or Ethier? I’d be surprised if they parted with Kershaw - they probably see him as needed for another star pitcher made for another playoff run. If we can get Kemp plus even 1 solid pitching prospect in AA/AAA, that would be pretty good. I’d be OK with Ethier, though I’m concerned about him not being able to hit lefties well. Dodgers don’t seem confident in Billingsley after this playoffs either…
Mets - I don’t see anyone who we might even want on their roster. Angels included. Hence, the 3-way trade route. It would be awesome if we could get another team involved and pickup another early-mid 20s player (Votto would rock… Adrian Gonzalez? Gordon Beckham maybe?)
What do you think of that?
MW: Votto would rock - and I think Alex is trying to get a third team involved in the Halladay sweepstakes. I would love to get either Kershaw or Billingsley, moreso than Kemp (though I like Kemp). Ethier didn’t have any issues hitting lefties in 2008.
- SS in KWFun or not, I agree with post #50. The Yankees have outspent everyone else in baseball for years and years and they’ve only won 1 world series this decade. Spending loadsadough isn’t the only key to the play-offs.
I would really like to see the team concentrate on defense this year, so I want Johnny Mac back as everyday s/s. Those young pitchers need to build confidence and they’ll be better off with a strong defensive infield behind them, given that the outfield is shakier than it was and might well give away a run or seven.
If they’re ‘building’, is there a chance that Ruiz dh’s?
And then there’s this:
MW: I think that people see the Jays as a reasonable fit for Bradley given their hole in the outfield and their willingness to dump Vernon Wells’ contract.
The only way they’re going to move Wells is to eat a major part of that contract. Are you sure they’re willing to do that? That is a huge contract.
MW: They’re eating it already, but I don’t see them willing to pay a whole bunch of it for Vernon to play elsewhere unless they get serious value back, as opposed to just someone else’s problem. As for the Yankee thing, your argument isn’t valid. Winning a World Series does, in fact, take a lot more than cash. It takes luck to be able to navigate through three short series and win them all. Getting the opportunity to have the chance to navigate through those short series - that’s what the cash gets you, and that’s what it has gotten the Yankees every year but one since 1995.
- reyesHey Mike, I am with you! Why can’t the Jays have a multi level plan that has them trying to win in 2010 threw 2020? AA can’t stop saying that he has some of the best baseball minds around him. If that is the case any fear of signing the wrong FA’s or making bad trades should be erased. It looks like 2010 will be a watered down version of the 2009 lineup & that is scary! How many RBI’s can we expect Lind to have with no Marco? How many wins can Marcum have with almost no runs being scored for him? Wating for the next wave of talent to arrive 3 years from now could spoil all of the Jays current assets. It sure will be hard trading Marcum 2 years from now with a 4-11 record. Then we are right back at square one! Bring on the next 5 year plan!
MW: I’m not sure you’re with me.
- Justin EdwardsMike I can’t resist posting here because I am not sure how people can get off the beaten track on what the Jays should be doing. First and foremost, if you Trade Roy Halliday before the 2010 season you will not compete in 2010 or probably anytime shortly thereafter. You cannot replace an 18 to 20 win pitcher who eats up a lot of innings (saving your bullpen) easily if at all. The Jays lost an 18 game winner in Burnett and through that, injuries and a core of young throwers who have yet to become pitchers sealed their fate in 2009.
The Yankees first of all won their division mostly via a deep pitching staff something they have not had for a while.
It is the pitching depth aided by a couple of high quality starters that got them where they were. Add in the best closer in the game and that is the secret to success. I can’t say this often enough, do not make the mistake that most baseball people do by tieing up big dollars in position players without first making sure your pitching is solid. You are throwing money away and will never compete. The Jays with Halladay could actually surpise some people if the pitchers who were injured can retain their form and some of the young pitchers continue to develop.Their only glaring weakness and it is a big one,is their lack of a closer.
The one thing that stuck out in my mind this year was watching the Jays play Seattle. Looking at the Seattle team I said my God this team is horrible barring a couple of players like Ichiro but, their pitching was excellent therefore they could compete. Don’t even think about chasing the Bay’s of this world because they are not difference makers.
MW: Seattle’s pitching wasn’t that good beyond Felix Hernandez and Ryan Rowland-Smith, and they actually were outscored by over 50 runs this year. They had no business being as good as they were. The Blue Jays had the best pitching in the league in 2007 and again in 2008 and look at what that did for them. The Yankees won not just because they had Sabathia and Burnett up front and Rivera to finish up, but because they had EIGHT everyday players with an OPS of .854 or more. That’s EIGHT players who had an OPS that was at least 26% better than the average major-leaguer. They won because they scored 915 runs, because they hit 244 home runs, because they walked 663 times - leading the league in all three categories.
- mike glattHey Mike,
Just wondering on what your thoughts are on who the Jays could bring in for SS ? Would you think they would look at Alex Gonzalez since he is still rated very highly on defense, wont cost a draft pick, seems like he would be cheap and could be had on an affordable two year deal which would hold us over until a real replacement gets in line ?
Then there is always the enigmatic Khalil Greene. Thanks Mike, hope you are enjoying the offseason.
MW: I think the Jays would rather give the job to John McDonald than go with either of those guys. If Scutaro goes, as I believe he will, I think it’s either Johnny Mac or a guy who comes over in trade.
- DaveHey Mike,
I wish we could attach files on this blog.
I am having discussions with my buddies on how much stock to put on Baseball America’s top 50 prospect list or any other type of list that shows top prospects in baseball.
Anyways, my point is that although these lists are something in which GM’s and fans use to measure the strengh or weakness of other organizations’ minor leagues, these lists should be taken with a grain of salt.
Using Baseball America’s 2005 list, according to my unscientific research, here are the indivudals that panned out:
Joe Mauer, Felix Hernadnez, Ian Stewart, Kazmir, Hanley Ramirez, Cain, Fielder, Billingsley, Carlos Quentin, Jeff Francis, Jeff Niemann, Swicher, Ryan Howard, Edwin Jackson, Zach Duke, Gavin Floyd, Scott Olsen, Erick Aybar, Brian McCann.
Here are the individuals that didn’t pan out:
Delmont Young, Joel Guzman, Kotchman, Kazmir, Weeks, Andy Marte, Lastings Mileage, Dallas McPherson, Francoeur, Adam Miller, Hermedia, Brian Dopirak, Jose Cappelan, Chris Nelson, JJ Hardy, Mike Hinckley, Felix Pie, Daric Barton, Jeremy Reed, Erick Duncan, Brian Anderson, Conor Jackson, Michael Aubrey, Ryan Sweeney, Dan Meyer, Josh Barfield, Yusmeiro Petit, Homer Bailey and Brandon McCarthy.
Here are the question marks:
Kazmir, Kubel, Reyes and Hughes.
At the end of the day, we have 18 “panned out”, 30 “didnt’ pan out” and 4 “question marks”.
Some final notes regarding my list:
Kazmir is on all three - this was not a mistake. He did well with Tampa, then struggled the last couple of years, but he’s still young, is a southpaw so who knows how he’ll end up performing.
Just because a prospect made the majors, that to me didn’t qualify as panned out. Panned out means “did he do as well as he was expected to do?”
Conclusion - take the list with a grain of salt.
MW: Always. I don’t know about your assessment, though. There are a few guys on your “didn’t pan out” list who have had as many good years in the majors as the guys on your “panned out” list, just not as recently.
- Karim SunderjiThe Fielding Bible has released the 2009 data:
Congratulations to Aaron Hill for tied for 1st with Dustin Pedroia among all major league second baseman.
Overbay comes in 6th among 1B behind Pujols, Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Teixeira, & Kotchman.
Rolen is 5th among third baseman behind Zimmerman, Beltre, Figgins, and Longoria. Unfortunately the Jays 2010 third baseman Edwin Encarnacion trails all major league third baseman with a -37 in runs saved over the past three seasons.
Scutaro comes in 7th among shortstops behind Jack Wilson, Tulowitzki, Andrus, Brandon Ryan, Yunel Escobar, Cesar Izturis. Gold Glove winner Derek Jeter is tied for 17th. A recount anybody?
As for left fielders Crawford, Nyjer Morgan, and DeJesus lead the way. In spite of limited playing time Adam Lind did manage to come 4th from the bottom with -8 runs saved. A move to first base would seem to be in his future.
In right field Suzuki, Pence, and Ryan Sweeney lead the way. Alez Rios comes in tied for 13th, a huge drop for him.
Centre field has become a disaster area for the Jays, which always goes totally unaddressed by Jays’ management and fans. Vernon Wells was dead last in the majors by a substantial margin with -30. Dexter Fowler of the Rockies was next worse at -25. Ouch. To hear Jerry Howarth tell it, this guy is still a fielding god. Geez. So much for observation being a reliable method of measuring baseball skill. At the other end of the spectrum Franklin Gutierrez led the way at +31.
Barajas came in 10th among catchers with Yadier Molina, Gerald Laird, and Mauer leading the field.
- stat ladyMW: We’ll find out if Rogers puts its money where its mouth is a couple of years down the road. You can only say “we’ll spend with the Bostons and L.A.’s” for so long without actually having to do it.
If they were gonna do it, it would have been done it already. They have a president who is a public relations/accounting spin doctor type guy who loves Cito and another rookie GM who isn’t even allowed to choose his own manager.
We have no baseball savvy at the top of the organization.
When Pat Gillick agrees to join this team, then you will know that they are really gonna try to compete. As long as Gillick continues to keep his distance, there is nothing going on there other
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Mike….Do you think the Red Sox would part with Ellsbury and Bard for Halladay or would the Jays want more? Or maybe Boston would want another warm body tossed in?
MW: I would want far more than that if I were the Jays.
But you wouldn’t get it, and neither will the Jays. Beeston’s biggest priority with regard to Halladay now is to get him off the Jays’ 2010 payroll. Pronto.
MW: Sometimes you’re so rational. Lately, though, not so much.
- stat ladyHey Mike, your great for keeping up the blog in the offseason.
Do you forsee Vernon moving to right field this year ? He is quickly distancing himself as one of the worst center fielders in the majors today, 27th according to the fielding bible and 18th worst when taking into acount UZR at -28 runs per 150 - but with his arm strength and instincts he could probably recover some of what he is giving away in center by moving over to right field. The Jays are simply giving away runs by playing him there, in a non-contending year could you see a move being made for the future, or would sticking to the status quo seem more likely to be in order?
It just seems very illogical for a guy who loses as many runs on defense as Vernon does / as well as with his bat, would be permitted to hurt the young pitching like he does. In a year like this we need to give them the confidence to throw strikes and have their D work for them instead of pressuring them to be perfect with sub-prime defensive allignments.
(And yes, I know having Snider out there isn’t any better, but a speedy defensive centerfielder is able to make up for the dificencies of his cornermen.
MW: My great what? No, I don’t think this is the year in which Wells gets moved out of centrefield. It’s the same kind of situation as Derek Jeter staying at shortstop, only without the championships and stuff.
- Dave“cromulent” - nice! Had to look it up. I should let you know that it has not made it into the Scrabble dictionary, for whatever that’s worth.
MW: I can’t believe it’s actually in a dictionary at all.
Cromulent - Fine, acceptable or normal; excellent, realistic or authentic
en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cromulent
it is in the dictionary and i think you used it in correct context
MW: Well, it’s in the wiktionary. Anyone can put a word in there.
- HarryMike,
Thanks as always for your excellent blog.
On a previous post, you alluded to potential bullpen trades in 2010 i.e. one of Frasor or Downs going. Who is the future closer in 2011: the intrepid Accardo; Jannssen; or, will they try to convert one of the injured, such as McGowan? It would be difficult to project League or Roenicke based on 2009 performances.
MW: But why would you project a guy based on 2009 performances? You project based on stuff and ability to throw strikes. The closer in 2011 could be any of those guys, or it could be Daniel Farquhar or Tiny Tim.
- Jake in ThornhillYour use of the word cromulent embiggened me to contact you. After Cito steps upstairs, who would be a good choice to manage? Second, deep down, what current roster players will not be on hand when the season bsgins?
MW: I would love to see Brian Butterfield get a shot to steer this ship, but I have a feeling the net will be cast far and wide in the search for a new skipper. It might even wind up being a guy like Buck Showalter. Current roster players? That doesn’t include guys who have already filed for free agency, right? I don’t think we’ll see Halladay or Overbay here when 2010 begins, and maybe not Downs, either.
- BrentWe will be getting Draft picks for Scutaro, but what good are draft picks when ownership does not give enough cash to sign them
MW: When they ask for too much money.
But Mike, It was known going into the Draft what their demands are. Keith Law, Buster Olney and others reported it was less that $1 million total for the players that did not sign. Its not like it was a huge amount of money in baseball terms. Again, lets call a spade a spade, the ownership needs to invest in this team if it wants to compete.
MW: See above.
- SeanMike-
Long time reader and listener, first time writer. Thanks for your updates and Blue Jays insight.
With all this trade talk about Overbay, the presumption has been that Lind will move to first base to fill the void. Where does that leave Ruiz? Will he be the DH next year?
As well, what’s Cito’s beef with him? I’ve heard no good reason about his lack of regular play except for some steroid use several years ago which he was already punished for. Sounds like a lousy excuse to me.
I think how Cito handles the Ruiz situation next year will illustrate how much he’s learned from the end of season clubhouse turmoil.
Thoughts?
MW: I don’t think his handling of Ruiz has anything to do with what he’s learned from the turmoil, because I don’t think he learned anything from it. He was flabbergasted at the suggestion that some players might not like the way he does things, which shows that he had no clue what was going on in there. Ruiz was a rookie, though, and had no say in anything. I don’t know that Cito actually has a beef with Ruiz, I think he just trusted a veteran like Kevin Millar more - no clue why, though. I know that, organizationally, the Jays don’t love Ruiz and don’t really see him as a big piece down the road, but he hasn’t done anything to say that he can’t hit. If Overbay is traded and Lind moves to first, I would hope that DH is Ruiz’ job to lose.
- AlexMike.
At this point what do you think the Jays rotation for opening day 2010 shapes up, minus Roy Halladay, which appears to be the case as each day passes this off-season. I’m off to Buffalo next Sunday to rock out to Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band’s final show of the tour. I’ll fill you in next week. Take it easy Mike.’
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: It depends on who they get back for Halladay, but Marcum, Romero and Rzepczynski are definitely in it, for my money.
- Peteri have changed my position. i no longer want the toronto blue jays to play on real grass. i want them to stay @ rogers centre. with only us (i can say that because i have rogers stock in portfolio and technically i am a part owner!) and tampa bay playing on carpet (tampa will soon be on real grass because i believe much like the washington nationals situation they need a new stadium to stay in business and mlb will make that happen), i believe that this will become a positive for the jays.
and here’s why….
i saw some of the boston celtics atlanta hawks game this weekend. the faux parquet reminded me of the old boston gardens and the nbc “game of the week” with larry bird & friends during the 80’s. even as kid back then i remember marv albert talking about the mystical/distinct home court advantage of the parquet floor. how kevin mchale knew where all the dead spots were, and how visiting point guards had the highest turnover rates when they played in boston.
this got me thinking of the checker board seam fest @ the rogers centre.
now stay with me as i explain this further. remember back in the 80’s fenway park was considered by some to a dump (kinda how the rogers centre is perceived now). it was out of touch with the new style of stadiums. years went by and then in time fenway became this mystical relic from the past. so unique because every other stadium were modernized. it became a place full of wonder with the garage doors, a green monster, and generally viewed with intrigue because “anything could happen”, and “no lead was safe”.
i believe that a similar type mystique can/will eventually happen @ the rogers centre. “the only turf stadium in baseball”, “a ball could hit a seam @ any time”, ” you can’t feel the warning track well under your feet”.
now if you have hard time seeing the similarities let me say this; 80’s music was not considered fashionable by many in the 90’s, but in time when the musical landscape changed it had a revival and was appreciated. it’s kind of the same principal.
i’d go on, but the point has been made.
thoughts?
p.s. happy Louis Riel Day eve!
MW: You really want thoughts?
- chris 25 time callerHi Mike, miss you at noon, nothing but hockey now:
Re Vernon Wells, I said during the summer on this blog that he was hurt, just didn’t know whether it was his shoulder, wrist or both. Whenever you see a player in his impact years, 28-34, tailing off like this it means he’s hurt, period. Vernon deserves kudos for not using his injury as an excuse, but I would like to see less stoicism and more consideration for the team. Certainly the word gets out ..FAST..to opposing pitchers if a guy isn’t able to do what he normally can, so nobody wins except the opposition.
The other player with injury problems has been Lyle Overbay. His wrist has arrested his progress in producing power numbers. It’d be ironic if he starts hitting for distance with another team. Rumor has it he’s on the block.
Thank you for your intelligent comment over the past season(s). It’s gonna be a long winter without you.
MW: I’ll still be here.
- Richard HennesseyMike,
What would you think of bringing back Zaun, for one year. He is pretty good with the young pitchers, no? Arencibia could probably take over mid-season, if he’s able to turn things around.
MW: It wouldn’t be so bad to bring Zaun back.
- RMMike,
1) Did you know that Mike McCoy is hitting .337/.459/.449/.909, with 12 SB, 40 TB in 89 AB playing for Nick Leyva’s CULIACAN TOMATEROS? Maybe he gets a shot at SS? Could be a cheap replacement for Scoots, no?
2a) I am still confused by the direction of the team. Will they really be building, as in “adding” pieces? Maybe spending the money they save on Scoots, Barajas, Doc, and anyone else who is traded (Overbay, Downs etc.)
2b) If AA trades Doc, where does his $15MM+ salary go? 2010? F/A?
2c) Can you name a few F/A’s that you would sign to smart contracts if you were AA and you had around $10MM to spend on 2010?
Thanks for your insight!
MW: Marco Scutaro is not a hockey player. Nobody calls him Scoots. That said: 1 - It seems that McCoy is very good at getting on-base, though he’s only done it with great success in the Pacific Coast League, which isn’t really translatable. I have no idea if he can play defense, so I’m certainly not ready to campaign for him to be the shortstop next year as a 29 year-old rookie. 2a - They’ll try to add pieces that can help them in 2011 and beyond. 2b - It likely goes back to the salary-holding-cell, to be used sometime within the next three years, or not. 2c - In the direction they’re going? Not really.
- andy mcMW: I took your saying that they didn’t sign some of their top 4 draft picks to mean you thought they didn’t sign any of them, sorry about that. You’re not alone in thinking that it seems the Jays “cheaped out” in dealing with those picks, but you have to remember that it’s all relative. If a guy is being offer $500K and wants $850K, sure the difference is only $350,000, but that’s 70% more than he was being offered.
But why draft him in the first place. Again, it was known what the contract demands where before the draft, so why draft a player if they where not willing to meet them, this makes no sense to me.
MW: That’s a fair point.
- SeanMike
Could please rank the pitching talent that has been linked to the Jays in a Halladay trade.
Buchholz
Happ
Drabek
Joba
Hughes
Kershaw
Billingsley
Holland
and comment on why you like/dislike each player. Thanx
MW: That’s a lot of work. Instead, I will simply rank them according to my opinion and nothing more - Kershaw, Hughes, Billingsley, Holland (but he’s not coming), Chamberlain, Buchholz, Happ, Drabek.
- BrettIn response to the 78th post; now that im not upset over the failed signing of Paxton (lets face it he was the real impact type talent we lost out on), I would have to wonder if the Jays were trying to give as many pics to their new GM as possible so as to try and buy some good grace with the fans after ousting JP and replacing him with a new guy who would herald the new youth movement.
Though, this line of reasoning will go completly out the window if AA fails to sign even one of the comp picks we get next draft for failing to sign these guys this year, imho.
MW: That’s a little too tinfoil hatty an idea.
- Dave