UPDATE - 11:05 AM EASTERN - see below
3:23 PM Eastern
We begin our coverage of the League Championship Series on The Fan Radio Network tonight, so I figured now was as good a time as any to throw something up here about them.
First of all, we get the mystery third off-day in each series for (I think) the second year in a row - a panic move by MLB because of some rain-outs a couple of years back. It’s ridiculous to never have to play more than two days in a row. This is baseball, it’s an everyday sport, and a great part of the strength of a champion is supposed to be its depth. How is depth tested when you only have to use three starting pitchers in a playoff series and your top relievers could potentially pitch an inning in every game?
Playoff series used to go 2-3-2, with two games in one park, an off-day for travel, three games in the other park, an off-day for travel and then two games back in the first park. That wasn’t ideal - still too many days off - but it’s far better than just adding another day off after Game 4. At least they get rid of the extra off-day when the World Series comes around, but thanks to those couple of extra days (and extra days off between rounds, too) the World Series can’t end before November 1st. It’s the first time in history that the World Series was SCHEDULED to go into November. Even in 2001, with the week off after 9/11, a four-game World Series would have ended on October 31st.
Now that I’ve gotten that off of my chest - to the games!
Obviously I’m not going to predict winners, I believe that’s a fool’s errand. After all, look how much dumb luck changed the course of each of the Division Series rounds! But for a dropped line drive by Matt Holliday, the Cards and Dodgers are tied 1-1 going back to St. Louis. But for Joe Nathan giving up a home run with a man on base for the FIRST time all season, the Twins and Yankees go to Minnesota tied 1-1 (never mind Phil Cuzzi!). The Red Sox were a strike away (with a two-run lead and nobody on) from forcing a game 4 against L.A. of A., and the Rockies were a strike away from forcing a Game 5 against the Phillies.
I will say, though, that I would like to see the Angels come out on top in the A.L. and the Phillies in the N.L. I’d like to see the Phils get a chance to repeat last year’s performance, and I’d love to see the Yankees get knocked out.
You really couldn’t have picked a better opponent for the Bronx Bombers than L.A. of A. The Angels have had the Yanks’ number for a long time now. They split the season series this year (5-5), which made the Angels one of only two A.L. teams not to lose their season series to the Yankees - the other was Boston, which also split (9-9). The Halos are the only team to have a winning record against the Yanks since New York’s current dynastic run began back in 1995.
Jorge Posada should catch all the games in which A.J. Burnett doesn’t pitch, and in those games the Angels would be well-served to run him ragged. Every baserunner (with the possible exceptions of Kendry Morales, Vladimir Guerrero and Jeff Mathis) should be stealing at every possible opportunity. Posada must be broken.
As for the Dodgers and Phillies, the Phils have to work out their bullpen issues. By that, I mean they have to get Ryan Madson pitching well and keep Brad Lidge pitching well. If those two aren’t on their games, there could be trouble. Both teams have good offenses and both teams have good starting rotations, although the Dodgers are going with Vicente Padilla as their Game 2 guy, which raises an eyebrow.
I know Padilla threw really well against the Cards in the NLCS, but he’s still Vicente Padilla. 21 year-old Clayton Kershaw will pitch tonight against last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP and brand-new daddy Cole Hamels.
Both the Phils and Dodgers are well-suited for A.L. rules should they advance, with Philly being able to DH either Matt Stairs or Gregg Dobbs and the Dodgers enjoying the benefit of getting Manny Ramirez off the field in the A.L. and putting Juan Pierre’s glove out there.
Seeing a freeway series for the first time ever would be pretty cool, but so would seeing a renewal of the Yankees-Dodgers rivalry of the 50s and, more recently, the late 70s/early 80s when they hooked up three times in five years (Yanks won in ‘77 and ‘78, Dodgers in ‘81). The coolth factor would be raised even higher with Joe Torre running the show against the team with which he won four World Series and punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame.
Phillies-Angels would lack the lustre of either of those two Series, and of a potential Phils-Yanks get-together, but it’s the Series I want to see anyway.
So dig this - the entire paragraph below has been proven completely wrong:
I was going to wait until the World Series to say this, but what the heck. Can we nip in the bud right now any misguided righteous indignation about the use of the word “World” in Major League Baseball’s Championship Series? It’s not about arrogance and it’s not about a North American superiority complex. The reason it’s called the “World Series” is because back in 1903, a newspaper called the New York World sponsored what became a series wherein the National League champion would play off against the American League champion in a best-of-nine to determine baseball’s best team of the year. It has nothing to do with anyone declaring themselves “The Champions of The World.” Thank you.
I still think that the righteous indignation is misguided, but it appears I have fallen for an urban legend, which sucks, because I pride myself on prying people away from such myths and into facts. It was pointed out in the comments section, but you can see the truth at http://www.snopes.com/business/names/worldseries.asp
As I said off the top, we’re going to be providing complete coverage of the ALCS and NLCS across the Fan Radio Network, but it’s going to be a little touchy on the Fan590 and here on this very website. Tonight, we’ll join Game 1 of the Dodgers-Phillies in progress at the conclusion of the Raptors’ pre-season game. Tomorrow night, we’ll join Game 1 of the Yankees-Angels in progress at the conclusion of the Argo game.
The Blue Jay A Day Pre-Pre-Game Show will be back as well, but not for a while. There won’t be any pre-games tonight and tomorrow, obviously, and because of FC soccer on Saturday and Bills football on Sunday, we’ll only have little-mini-pre-pre-games. I’m going to see if I can get Andrew Tinnish or Dana Brown on one of them, though there won’t be time to take calls.
Next week, we should have some Blue-Jay-A-Day guests taking your phone calls. Let me know to whom you’d most like the opportunity to talk, and I’ll try to get them. Know this, though, neither Roy Halladay nor Vernon Wells will do the show - Doc never has, and knows that if he did it this year, the only questions would be about him being traded, and Vernon told me last month that he’s not interested in that sort of fan interaction anymore.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Hi Mike,
I’ve always heard the story about the origin of “World Series,” although my version had it as sponsored by the Philadelphia World, also a newspaper. But check out this contradictory account by Doug Pappas of SABR: http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=89747
Wikipedia also attempts to put the “lie” to the “myth” about the newspaper sponsorship.
Not sure what to believe. I do recall Tom Cheek’s accounts in 92 and 93 as “The Toronto Blue Jays are World Series Champions!” and not, as every American broadcaster would have it, “World Champions.” I often repeated that as a point of pride to my American friends.
MW: Wow. I stand corrected. I guess I’m as bad as everyone else, buying into the urban myth. I feel shame, and will correct the blog post.
- Mick in IthacaMike,
November baseball - yikes. I’m sure I’m not the first to think of this idea, but what’s been said before about shifting (not shortening) the baseball season by a month?
Start the season in March and end it early September.
It can be pretty miserable to play baseball in the cold, and professional or not I think it could have impact on the quality of play. The sweet spot of the bat shrinks, muscles tighten up faster, and these ball caps with ear flaps are just plain ridiculous.
Supposing the climate can change the quality of the game, I know I’d rather it impact regular season games as opposed to those of the post-season. What do you think?
MW: It’s potentially even colder in March than it is in early November. I would just cut back on off-days.
- goldsacI have to say that even if Vernon didn’t decline to appear on the show, I wouldn’t really want him on the air anyway. It’s clear that many “fans” of this team aren’t interested in honest and open dialogue with the guy, and listening to a bunch of uninformed, disrespectful [insert colourful noun here]s berate a guy that’s done nothing but be a quality player for this team, and a quality person in this community isn’t my idea of a good time.
Congratulations Jays fans, you’ve managed to alienate one of the best players in team history for no better reason than because he signed the contract that many people demanded he sign.
Proud day for Jay fans everywhere.
MW: Well said.
- BrandenThe “New York World” story is a myth:
http://www.snopes.com/business/names/worldseries.asp
But then, maybe you already knew that. Baseball is, after all, a game of mythology. ;)
True enough that the playoffs are a crapshoot, but the percentages favour the Yankees over the Twins just like they favour rolling a four and a three over rolling a pair of ones, eh? If you’re good at predicting, you won’t get ‘em all, but given a big enough sample, you should get more of ‘em than if you’re not good, right?
MW: Nope. Because while the percentages certainly favoured the Yankees over the Twins, the sample size of a seven-game series is so small as to make the difference between the teams almost meaningless.
- Cincinnatus C.Mike…I worded my instant replay question in a confusing manner and apologize for that. I didn’t realize Mauer’s ball went into the stands. The point I was attempting to make is that if a foul ball is reversed (like Mauer’s should’ve if replay was in use)and the ball is rattling around, what’s the call? You can’t freeze time and obviously the batter will stop running once the umpire makes the foul ball call (erroneously in this hypothetical example)..Mike, what if it’s Carl Crawford who’s quick enough for 3 bases? Or a guy with 2 base speed like an Aaron Hill or a caboose like Rod Barajas who’s happy to get first? Will the umps have to take into consideration the guy running?…With the home run replay, it doesn’t matter who’s running because the ball has cleared the wall.
MW: The umpires would have to take such things into consideration, of course. They already do that on spectator interference calls.
- chris m.This week off and the off days is nuts. If both semis go seven, or are extended because of rain (a real possibility given this weekend’s New York weather forecast), we could be looking at a Philly-Yankee series creeping into November and some real ugly playing conditions. Jays won their last World Series, against the Phils, on Oct. 23. If there is a game seven in the Yanks-Angels’ series it will be played on Sept. 25.
MW: Definitely ridiculous.
- steveGee Vern…man up…Id love to hear someone ask you what your going to do to be better next year. If Arod and Pettite can face the media after testing positive, atleast you can answer some questions about living up to your contract, being a leader, what your going to do to become the player you once where. This only hurts his imagage, and as a Wells fan, Id love to see him step up!
MW: It’s not the same thing as Pettitte and A-Rod, both of whom faced the media but you’d have to be awfully naive to think either of them told the truth. For starters, Wells faces the media on a regular basis. His unwillingness to do the BJADPPGS is because of the way he was treated by the fans this season.
- DanDue to the Yankees torrent record since A-rod came back, do you think he deserves any recognition in the A.L. MVP category, despite the admitted steroid use? If not, then whom?
(I say no because I am a huge A-Rod hater, but the record and numbers don’t lie.)
MW: There’s no question that Joe Mauer was the American League’s Most Valuable Player this season. None whatsoever.
- T.J.I look forward to hearing the series on the radio. Will they bring back Joe Morgan. He’s fun to listen to.
Do you think good moves are being made by the Jays?
MW: It’s too early to tell. I don’t know where Joe Morgan is in these playoffs.
- BarbMichael,
Adam Loewen went 4 for 5 today with a double. It seems he is heating up again. What level of pitching would he be facing in the Arizona Fall League?
Also, can you tell me more about winter ball? Where is it typically played and do players go at the clubs suggestion?
MW: He’s facing guys at his level or better, generally. Teams tend to put their top prospects in the AFL. Winter ball is played in several different places - Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico to name a few. Those four countries send their champions to play in the Caribbean World Series every year. Australia is starting up a winter league (it’s their summer) again. Some players go at the clubs’ suggestions, but I think mostly guys go on their own. Generally the major-league club will tell a player NOT to go rather than suggest he play, if they’re going to say anything at all.
- Uncle BenMichael,
Can you tell me the latest you know about Dustin McGowan?
MW: It’s no different than it was in September. Signs are encouraging, but we still have no idea.
- Uncle BenMichael,
I think Dave Perkins must have been bored so he wrote a hypothetical article about the Jays going after Jason Bay.
Hypothetically, what sort of contract do you think the 31 yr old Bay will command?
Personally, I think the Yankees will have a good shot at getting him since they have Damon and I believe Matsui coming off the books.
MW: I think Bay could probably get a 5-year, $70 million deal or thereabouts.
- Uncle BenMike, re post #8 — did the Yankees sign Curt Flood when I wasn’t looking?
I can’t think of any other reason they would have a “torrent” record!
- NormMike,
I’m pretty sure Thome will DH if the Dodgers get to the World Series. That’s pretty much why they traded for him.
MW: Yeah, against righties, it’s true. I can’t believe I forgot that.
- GregPMike, I am really looking forward to both the ALCS and NLCS, it’s going to be good baseball and last night’s game 1 was a positive start in that direction.
You’re talking about the use of the term “World” in the title of MLB’s championship series. What really irks me is the use of the term “playoffs” by a lot of the Canadian media in relation to MLB. It’s “post-season”, MLB calls it post-season, not “playoffs”. The media in this country are so hockey-centric and it drives me up the wall. Can we nip that in the bud as well? Thanks Mike.
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: I don’t think that one has anything to do with hockey. After the season is over, the remaining teams go to the playoffs in any sport.
- PeterHi Mike
Two things;
First I like that it is the World series as I have routinely stumped my American friends with “who won the first World series?”. Using the World and not United States it was the Blue Jays.
Also, has VW totally given up on Toronto and the Jays? Is he likely to try and get out of town?
It would be a major shame and as a previous poster accurately pointed out, it is misguided fans who have caused him grief that he dosen’t deserve. It explains his home/away numbers. He is just having a down year and he has been good to Toronto. Some how we need to get the info to him that the majority of reasonable fans understand and support him
MW: I don’t think the fans’ treatment of Wells explains his home/away numbers, nor do I think it’s especially fair to ask your American friends a trick question!
- Richard from ARMW: Nope. Because while the percentages certainly favoured the Yankees over the Twins, the sample size of a seven-game series is so small as to make the difference between the teams almost meaningless.
Yes, in a single seven-game series, let alone a five-game series, the difference is so small as to be almost meaningless–it’s more or less 50-50. Except it’s not actually 50-50, and the difference is not completely meaningless; it’s maybe, what, 53-47? Whatever it is, over a large enough sample of series predicted, if you’re a good predictor, you’ll get more right than if you’re not (even though you’ll get a lot wrong along the way).
Of course, the problem is, what an actual good predictor will do is pick the demonstrably better team (maybe excluding fourth and fifth starters) whenever possible, and whenever neither team is demonstrably better (like Boston-LAA), pick the team with home advantage. As luck would have it, that would make you 4-0 in the first round this year! Let’s see what would happen, the last several years, if you just picked the team with the better record or, in case of a tie, the home team. That would give you a 4-3 record in 2008; 6-1 in 2007; 2-5 in 2006; 5-2 in 2005; 4-3 in 2004. (I’m quitting there because I HAVE GOT TO QUIT DOING THIS AN HOUR AGO.) A cumulative 25-14! Still a relatively small sample (and, well, still two wins behind this year’s storied 27-14 start), but pretty impressive nonetheless, don’t you think?
So good predictors, who ignore the noise thrown up by their “guts”, are pretty boring. But sooner or later, if you keep track long enough, they’ll almost inevitably put up significantly better prediction records than their “gutsy” friends. Before the 1990 World Series, just for the hell of it, I told people that the Reds would sweep the A’s. Lo and behold! But there’s no credit in that kind of prediction coming true anyway, just like there’s no credit to you as a manager if Millar hits a home run as your cleanup hitter.
MW: No, there isn’t, nor should there be. It’s like being the guy who, after the Jays lost the opener of their nine-game road trip in May to fall to 28-14, said that it was the start of a 5-15 run. He was pretty close, but didn’t have any real reason to think that, so even though he was right, he deserves no credit.
- Cincinnatus C.Ugh, I’m still confusing the issue in my first paragraph of my last post. Your point, I think, is that the percentages could favour the Yankees 75-25 and you still couldn’t pick a winner confidently in a short series, just like you couldn’t confidently predict that a pair of coin tosses won’t produce a pair of heads. My point, analogously, is that the fact that you can’t make a confident prediction about any single pair of coin tosses doesn’t mean that you won’t come out with a better record in the long run betting against a pair of heads every time. You’d be an idiot to bet your house that a pair of tosses won’t produce a pair of heads, but you’d be an idiot not to bet your house that fifty pairs of tosses won’t produce a majority of pairs of heads.
I can’t believe that we actually disagree about anything substantive here. I suspect you’re just reluctant to make playoff picks because you’re reluctant to abandon the outcomes of any of your actions to the whims of chance! And who isn’t? But still, that attitude is contrary to the spirit of baseball–what baseball teaches about life!
After all, it does get tiresome explaining–over and over and over and over–that, just because a decision turned out wrong doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision. In 2006, you make the right calls and go 2-6, and who chalks it up to luck? Baseball teaches, but who listens?
Ah, I remember a new guy on the radio once calling the result of a single regular-season game an “upset”. I thought to myself, this guy, he does not get baseball. But he’s come a long way. ;)
Thanks for listening, Mike!
MW: Wow, that might just be the dictionary definition of back-handed compliment. Though I don’t remember ever saying that, it’s certainly very possible to have a single-game regular-season upset in baseball.
- Cincinnatus C.Mike,
Peter is correct in that until very recently (maybe even this year), MLB has only used the word “postseason.”
They used “playoff” to describe the regular season games played to determine who would go into the “postseason.”
However, that seems to have changed as even MLB is using the word “playoffs” this year.
- JohnGreat post as usual Mike. I’m excited to see the Yankees and Angels go at it.
Regarding the BJAD guests I’d like to hear Marco if for no other reason than to ask him about the walk-steal. Did he notice something earlier that gave him the idea to try it, or was it just an opportunity that presented itself. To me he is the kind of heads-up player the Jays need.
MW: I’m hoping to get him on, for sure.
- RezWatching the playoffs, I noticed the Rockies needs an Ace real bad. Wouldn’t a trade of Fowler + Stewart + Friedrich+/Chacin + ss prospect Gomez? be a match made in heaven ? They can fill various holes to compete for 2010 or beyond.
Do you think the Rockies would think they can sign Halladay to an extension and get a hometown discount ?
MW: They might, but I don’t think they’d make a trade based on that idea without checking it out first. I don’t love Ian Stewart, and if Jhoulys came here, would they have to bring back the cologne? It’s definitely something to investigate, though.
- johnMichael,
What did you make of Greg Zaun’s latest comments to Bob McCown about how much better he feels the Tampa Bay organization treats its players than the Blue Jays?
MW: That would be interesting if he had actually said that.
- Uncle BenMike…One of my biggest regrets in baseball was being too young to see Sandy Koufax pitch…But Pedro Martinez during his Red Sox tenure was Koufaxian with his 117-37 record and 3 Cy Youngs and having to face DH’s, something Sandy didn’t have to do ..Those Boston years 1998-2004 were amazing and I guess he was the Koufax I never saw…Mike, is he a first ballot Hall of Famer with his 219-100 record, all his microscopic ERA’s, the Cy Youngs, if the voting was tomorrow and he wasn’t still playing?
MW: Absolutely.
- chris m.Hey Mike. Do you think the this deal?
To Blue Jays:
JJ Hardy
Matt Gamel
Brent Brewer
To Brewers:
EE
Brett Cecil
Jeremy Accardo
David Purcey
The way I see, The Brew Crew have Alcides Escobar at SS, so brewer is extra, and gamel needs to be put somewhere else, according to his glove. They have 1b and the outfield covered, unless they trade prince. They need young starting pitching, as they have one prospect in the top 300, according to Scouting Book (http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/MLW). Accardo is extra to make up the difference in the prospects rating, purcey as compared to brewer, where cecil and gamel is a wash.
I think this move would benefit both parties immensely. The Jays need another young bat, and more importantly high quality SS propect.
The brewers need starting pitching prospects, as they had one starter below an ERA under 5. Cecil is very good, and purcey may have something of a case of AL Eastitis. Sending him to the NL might be good for him.
the only reason such a trade might not at least be viable is that GMs dont like to do talent-for-talent swaps.
Anyways, let me know what you think.
Cheers!!
MW: I think the Brewers would have a hard time dealing Gamel for that package, even though Cecil is a big, big deal. What is it about Brewer that you like?
- dave JMichael,
I heard Greg Zaun talking about A-Rod being a “classic guess hitter”.
Does that mean his approach at the plate is to try and guess and gamble on the pitch the hitter is going to throw rather than being a reactive hitter? Or does that mean he takes his best guess and adapts to the pitch?
I just found Zaun’s statment a little confusing because I always thought every hitter had an idea in his head what the pitcher was going to throw.
MW: They do, or at least, they should. But some hitters try to think along with the pitcher and guess what pitch will be thrown with each delivery.
- Uncle BenMichael,
Do you think seeing the good pitching performances from Pedro Martinez and Vicente Padilla (even Chan Ho for that matter) is a good example of the parody between the AL and NL?
I have a hard time believing they would have pitched as well in the AL.
MW: I’m not sure if you put “parody” there on purpose or not. Padilla certainly didn’t pitch that well in the A.L. even two months ago, but you can’t read everything into a start or two. The thing is, a pitcher doesn’t ever get innings off in the A.L., and there aren’t many N.L. teams with good 8th-place hitters, and there aren’t any with bats in the nine-hole.
- Uncle BenMike…I think you’ll get a chuckle from this..My mom and I were watching you on The Grill Room and although she’s heard you on The Fan often, she’d never seen you before. She kept saying to me that the gentleman on the left in the navy blue shirt (yourself)keeps getting interrupted when he’s trying to give his point and why don’t the other men let him speak and remain quiet like you do when they’re speaking…Old school manners from older folks… Mike, see how moms notice those sort of things even over the topics you’re discussing. I explained your role on the radio so Mom says hello and keep up the good work Mike and said it was nice to put a face to a great radio voice and after her 5 children, I think baseball is her greatest love and she loves you guys at The Fan590.
- chris m.I hate the Yankees, so I’m hoping the Angels win in the ALCS. Ultimately I would like to see a “Freeway Series” with the Dodgers. That said, the Dodgers and Yankees wouldn’t be bad either — the two biggest cities in the U.S., on opposite coasts, and so culturally different in many ways; first time they’ll have met in the Fall Classic in nearly 30 years.
The only team that wouldn’t be good to see in any scenario would be Philly. Angels and Phillies? Sure to be low ratings. Phillies and Yanks? Ah, a little better, but still wouldn’t interest me as the other two scenarios.
As a sidebar, if there’s never going to be a salary cap in this dysfunctional league then the two leagues should be merged with 16 teams making the playoffs, like the NHL and NBA. A maximum of 20 games in October — 4 rounds of a best of 5 is doable in a 31 day month. Simply put, pitchers are special; they’re different and should not be batting. Quarterbacks are unique in their role, same for goaltenders. And the same should be true for pitchers. Yes, merging the leagues would mean fewer series against each team but I’m willing to accept this if it means a 16-team playoff format.
MW: I don’t think the leagues need to be merged, nor do I think four rounds of best of 5 is a good idea at all. Why don’t the defending World Series champions trying to become the first N.L. team to win back-to-back in 33 years interest you?
- jonHey Mike. Sorry for my absence. I’ve still been listening when I’ve gotten the chance. Can you honestly think of a more miserable way to end off this horrible Jays season only to have the Yankees win the World Series? This is not a rhetorical question.
MW: Sure there are many more miserable ways, but that one is definitely up there.
- Matt from BCBased on what we have been hearing from Halladay that its not about money its about playing for a contender which I can’t blame him for leaving after 2010 if they cannot contend, do you think the new GM of the Jays might try to draw up a plan to get approval from Rogers to increase payroll or are they gonna trade Halladay and build around Lind and Hill?
MW: I think they’re likelier to trade Halladay than not.
- RoyceI was never one to boo Vernon, though I did feel he had an awful season. It’s truly sad that fans have managed to alienate him so badly. “Fans” claim that he’s not a leader and doesn’t seem to care, but as someone who follows the team closely I’ve never found that to be true. Vernon has always been there to take responsibility, I saw him quoted many times talking about his season and how he knows he has to be better.
It’s true, he hasn’t lived up to his contract and he had a poor season both offensively and defensively, but he was definitely trying and he’s still out there in the community trying to make a difference. Plus it’s unfair to judge a player on his contract, he takes what is offered.
On another topic, I remember when Vernon first signed that monster deal Paul Godfrey said that it would not affect the Jays payroll, that Vernon’s deal was special extra money. Do you know if this is still the case? I don’t really see how it’s possible, Rogers is a business, they just see money going in and out.
MW: If it ever was “special extra money”, it certainly isn’t anymore. I don’t remember Godfrey ever saying that, though.
- ColinMike
Why are you so far down on the list of blogs when you receive the most comments out of all the blogs.
MW: It’s a fair question.
- Han SoloMW: That would be interesting if he had actually said that.
Here’s exactly what Zaun said Mike (in regards to playing for Tampa Bay):
“First class, all the way. It was amazing to me to see the difference in the way that organization treats their players—how hard they work and how far they go to make them feel comfortable.”
He could be comparing TB to his short time in Baltimore but I got the impression he was contrasting them with the Jays organization.
As a guy who is around the clubhouse and organization, what do you think?
MW: I think the Blue Jays used to have a far better reputation than they do now, especially given the clubhouse revolt that came out late in the season. But Gregg Zaun has played for almost every organization in major league baseball. The Jays picked him up off the scrap heap and gave him a big-league pension. It’s easy to read a shot at the Jays into his comments, but I think that’s a little too knee-jerk.
- Uncle BenMichael,
Here’s an article on Adam Loewen’s performance so far in the fall league and his propensity to work the pitcher:
http://www.examiner.com/x-23587-New-Hampshire-Fisher-Cats-Examiner~y2009m10d16-Adam-Loewen-continues-fast-AFL-start
He’s got an OBP of .500 so far through today.
Best case scenario, if he continues his maturation as a hitter, when do you think Loewen might get a look in the bigs?
Also, how long do the Jays have him under contract for and is that deal affected at all if they bring him up to the majors or not?
Thanks.
MW: Best-case, I’d say it’s a September call-up in 2010. The Jays have him under contract through the end of 2010, but they can put him on the 40-man roster after that season and be able to control him through at least 2013, probably longer.
- Uncle BenRunner on third, two outs. Ground ball hit to, say, third base. Third baseman’s throw drags first baseman off bag, forcing him to tag the runner. Can the runner put on the brakes and then run into the tag to let the guy from third score? This happened in the Angels-Yankees game with Guerrero as the batter.
MW: Nope.
- Eugene MMike…For a guy who’s tagged as a throwback Yankee and a real leader, Jorge Posada doesn’t give a lot of interviews or doesn’t seem to be in front of the camera much. I read recently that although Jeter’s the captain, Posada’s the CEO. I know he has a short fuse (see Jesse Carlson and Pedro Martinez) but for everyday comments, it’s usually Jeter, A-Rod, Damon et al. And in Sunday’s sports section, a great piece on Mariano Rivera and his great career and the guy who’s caught him all these years isn’t in the article, but Jeter is and present manager Joe Girardi is, who caught him in the ‘96 WS when Mo was setting up for Wetteland…Mike, you’re in the interviewing business:
a) Is Posada a tough nut when it comes to the media?
b) Is there an “unwritten list” of players that guys like yourself and other interviewers don’t even bother to approach because they bear the moniker of being unfriendly or maybe more accurately, uninterested? ( I know Manny Ramirez with Boston was and Albert Belle was when he played)
MW: A - I haven’t really ever approached him, but he certainly has shown to be a little prickly at times. B - Absolutely, but it doesn’t mean we don’t try.
- chris m.There’s a a hundred different questions I’d ask Doc before asking about any trade speculation.
MW: You’re a different breed of cat.
- JGAHey Mike…
A couple of things about some other comments:
Cincinnatus is partly right about it not being the luck factor in the divisional series. In the 60 divisional series played since 1995, the team who won the series won an average of 95.6 games and the losing team won 93.5 games. The underdog (defined as the team with lesser wins) won 28 of the 60 series. Of the 30 games involving wildcard teams, the wildcard won 16 games. However, in games where the team has 10 or more wins than the oppenent, the record for the stronger team is is 10 and 4.
Interestingly enough, when the series goes to the 5th game, the record is for the underdog 10-2. So there are some things to be said to the stats that go beyond luck: In game 5, bet the underdog; don’t count out the wildcard; if the team is alot better than the opposition they’ll likely win. But’s the stats show that it’s far more likely than pure luck.
—
With respect to financials, the 15M charge in Q3 is mentioned in Rogers’ financial statements. When a player is let go, the expense for the rest of the contract must be recognized immediately (you must match your expenses with revenue). While as a fan, I know that salaries are sunk costs, shareholders see a bump that they may react to.
Looking at the financial statements, my thought is that Rogers Media is not performing very well compared to the rest of the company and especially year-over-year (no offense). Hopefully, the new Jays’ president can convince your boss Mr. Miner that spending more money on the Jays is good for the whole Rogers empire. If Halladay is traded in the off-season, look for Rogers to dump payroll and to work on a business model of fielding a mediocre team that draws 15K / game and hope that the Jays win the division Rays style. When the rest of the Media division is in order, then an investment might come.
—
So far so good in these series. I’m with you with the Yankees losing, but they are looking incredibly strong. I think this year is the year for the Angels and their #34.
I do not like the days off in between games either. I would like to see a seven game series played in a eight days (with the only break between game 6 and 7) would force at least 4 starting pitchers.
MW: If the underdog wins almost half the series (28 of 60, or 47%), then it’s pretty close to chance, all else being equal.
- TimHey, if you want a forehanded compliment–I can’t think of a radio or television guy I’ve ever heard who I thought was smarter (and Lord knows there’s plenty who seem plenty dumber!). But, see, that’s a boring thing to say because it’s just the product of objective analysis. ;)
OK, single-game upsets (and actually the “regular season” qualifier is probably irrelevant, though I’m not entirely convinced of that): let’s say you’ve got a match-up between a .667 team and a .333 team. Let’s say a .333 team is .333, and a .667 team is .667, against the average (throwing out that they don’t get to / have to play themselves). That yields a probability of 0.8365 that the .667 team will win against the .333 team (if I’m doing the math right in calculating .667 + .333/2). With a 0.8365 probability of winning any given game, it takes four games played for there to be a better than 0.5 probability (about 0.51) that you’ll lose at least one. If, say, the hypothetical .667 Yankees play the .333 Orioles eighteen times, you can expect the Yankees to go 15-3. To me, that’s not fifteen expected results and three upsets; that’s, on the whole, the expected result, because baseball is a big-picture game. (I guess you might want to say that whether any of those three losses is an upset depends on whether Sabathia or Some Guy was pitching!)
In fact, North American football is the only game in which it seems to make sense to me to speak of an upset in a single game. I don’t know whether that’s because the season is so short that it’s within the realm of statistical plausibility for a team to go through a whole season without ever losing to a worse team or beating a better one, or because the fact that you’ve got a week to prepare for each game means that whether you win or lose is (maybe?) more in your control.
I am not a math guy, so you wouldn’t believe how much time I’ve spent flipping coins the last couple of days to try to roughly confirm my calculations!
MW: If the Kansas City Royals and Bruce Chen beat Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays, it’s an upset no matter how many times you flip the coin.
- Cincinnatus C.Hi Mike,
Some questions for you:
1. What are you doing during the off-season, work wise and family wise?
2. jp seemed like a nice family guy but his comment s often angered fans, can you comment more on his personality?
3. I did not like what Paul Godfrey said about firing JP, did you even get the idea from Godfrey that he planned to fire JP?
4. Scott Rolen, you loved him when he came to TO, then you didn’t speak much about him, everyone appreciated the way he played. Can you give more details why he wanted out of TO? Did he have a likable personality?
5. Can you tell us some of the players who give back to the community? I know VW does and I respect that of him.
6. Cito sounds reasonable during interviews; does he not take advice from some of his coaches regarding game tactics? Wouldn’t Butterfield give good advice?
7. I love the title ‘’the cito hits the fan’’ but it changed…why?
8. Do you still believe the Jays can make some moves that make them a playoff team? Wouldn’t that mean a huge increase in salaries? If you look at the Leafs could you not use them as an example you can’t just revamp the team and expect them to win because of on paper then look good? The Tigers of 2008 also come to mind. Do you agree that true quick fixes rarely work?
9. My biggest problem with the Jays organization this year was not signing some of their top draft picks. I just don’t understand, did it make sense to you Mike? Can you go into some detail on this; to me a top draft pick always presents itself as hope to the future.
10. Do you think Cito will be back? Would it makes sense considering he ‘’hit the fan”
11. Regarding the NY and LA game on Sat night, are umpires calling starting to call the runner at second safe if the player does not touch the bag at 2nd? I thought I saw that in a jay’s game this year.
12. Alex A has really impressed me with his interviews. I thought by now we would know the direction of the club in terms of its payroll. Do you know?
13. Do you find it strange Paul Beeston has not hired his successor? And then went and hired the GM?
Thanks!
James
MW: 1 - After I answer these 13 questions????? As little as possible as I get ready for the Olympics. 2 - He could very easily rub some people the wrong way, but far more often than not, he was great to me. He is a good guy who values his family above all else. 3 - Nope, and he was President of the team through the end of 2008, so it seems more than a little disingenuous for him to say he would have fired J.P. in ‘08 if he could have. 4 - I don’t know why he wanted out so badly, but I know he wanted out very badly (and still the Jays wound up making a very good deal for him!). Personality-wise, he was great with the writers off the record, but never very good with me at all. 5 - Roy Halladay has Doc’s Box, and I don’t know of any others who are very “out there” with their charity work. But some say the best charity is that which is given anonymously. 6 - I would think so. 7 - Some people suggested that it could be offensive, which wasn’t at all my intent. 8 - It depends on the situation. I think the Jays are in good enough shape long-term to take a shot at being really, really good in 2010. Don’t kid yourself, the Leafs didn’t look good on paper going into this season. 9 - It does, but that doesn’t mean that said draft pick should have the team over a barrel and get paid whatever he demands to sign. Honestly, I don’t know how I feel about the Jays not signing so many of their early picks. It seems like a piddling amount of money over which to walk away from the table, but if it means that future draft picks will get the message that the Jays are serious about negotiations, then maybe it’s a good thing. 10 - I don’t know. I don’t think he should be back. 11 - They should always be doing so. When it’s as blatant as Aybar’s mistake Saturday night, it is being called. 12 - I have a feeling. 13 - Yes and no.
- jamesHi Mike,
Can Encarnacion play the outfield? If so, where?
Should the Jays seek to contend (ie: raise payroll), should they consider signing Ben Sheets? He would look really good as Doc’s #2 (if healthy). How much would it cost? 2/20?
Two players I think the Jays should target are Mike Cameron and Fillipe Lopez. What do you think?
MW: He can play left, but not especially well. Sheets, Rich Harden and Erik Bedard are all good flyers who could really work out, but they could also really not. If you’re seeking to contend, those aren’t guys a on which a team can count for anything. I don’t know exactly how Cameron and Lopez would help the Jays.
- andy mcI hope this general manager has more brain than Ricciardi. To have one of JP’s disciples now running this ship really scares me. Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but that was a long eight years, and Rogers must know what they are doing here.
- Danny1) whats the average weight of a MLB bat?
2) expansion is the answer - not getting rid of the divisions. MLB would lose lots of money seprating the yanks and red sox - in this economy its not advisable. Just make the teams fair. (AL West NL Central)
3) do you think figgins still wants to play for cito after the clubhouse drama?
4) why aren’t setup men valued in the trade market?
5) WL, ERA, SO, IP, BB, SAVES (whats the short form), are the only stats they announce on the radio when they bring in a new pitcher. Not even WHIP. thats ridiculous.
MW: 1 - You’ve got me. 30-31 ounces? 2 - Expansion isn’t the answer. 3 - Yes. 4 - Because it’s seen as a very fungible position. 5 - SV is the short form. I try as much as I can to talk about walks and hits per innings pitched, but the big-time old-school stats are still very much the way that the average fan relates to players. It’s a shame, because they managed to get QB rating into the mainstream in football coverage, and no one understands what that means at all.
- TheSunkenZealotMichael,
I’m impressed you answered 13 questions in that previous blog post. Treat yourself to some free breakfast and internets.
I only have one small question. Did you notice a defensive drop off from Aaron Hill this year? I’ve always considered him to be one of the better defensive 2B but his UZR rating was a -1.5 this year. In 2006, it was an astounding 18.1.
I’m not sure how reliable UZR is though. Interestingly, UZR indicates that Torii Hunter hasn’t had a decent defensive season since 2005. Don’t tell that to FOX!
MW: I think Hill did drop off a bit on defense from the height of his game. He was shaky on more than a few occasions, though I certainly also felt that he was one of the better defenders at his position this season.
- Uncle BenI heard an interesting comment from someone this week. My first reaction was you crazy but I’m not sure it’s all that nuts. The Jays have approximately $72 million tied up in 7 players for the next season. Anyone looking for a big name free agent signing is dreaming. The solution to their problem, give Roy Halladay away for nothing but with one condition. The team which takes Hallady must also take Vernon Wells and his contract as part of the deal.Vernon’s contract is killing this team. His numbers as a player are not really all that bad in comparison to the rest of the centre fielders but they are not $20 million dollar numbers. Some may say this is far fetched but don’t forget Boston paid huge money just for the right to negotiate for Dice K and organizations pay huge amounts of money for unproven draft picks. Would this have been far fetched for a team like the Dodgers?
Making this deal removes $35 million dollars worth of uncertainty.
MW: This idea was bandied about a bunch back in July. I’m honestly not that sure how I feel about it.
- mike glattmichael,
baseball fans everywhere can despise a-rod all they want and i guess there’s all kinds of reasons to do so i’m sure but man that guy is one unbelievable ball player.
these home runs he’s been hitting late in games in the playoffs thus far has reallly been something to witness.
i guess he’s had some mediocre playoff performances in the past but you can’t keep a guy like him down forever can you?
he is money……..
MW: He is now, he wasn’t in 2005 and 2006. Rodriguez is a great hitter, one of the best ever, and he’s taken harsh and unfair criticism over his post-season failings.
- darrell bishopRe: Cincinnatus re Post 39…
The math is wrong. The math for adding probabilities is P(a) = (P(a) / (P(a) + P(b)).
Examples: Team A that wins 2/3 games plays team B that wins 1/3 games. Odds of team A winning is (2/3 / (2/3 + 1/3)) = 2/3.
Team C that wins 1/2 games plays team B that wins 1/3 games. Odds of team C winning is (1/2 / (1/2 + 1/3)) = (1/2)/(5/6) = 6/10 = .600
Extend this to the playoffs. A team that wins 100 games plays a team that wins 90 games. The odds that the favorite wins the game is (100 / (100 + 90)) = 52.63%.
In a five game series, NOTHING ELSE CONSIDERED, the odds of the team with the better record winning the series is 54.92% (in three games 15.8%, . Over sixty series then that’s about 33 wins for the favorite.
However, with only 64 divisional series played, the sample size is not large enough at all to say with any validity that wins are the factor that determine the winners, so Mike could be just as right as Cincinnatus, statistically speaking.
That said, there are so many other factors at play here including pitching, streaks, hitting, weather, luck, and so on and so forth.
And that concludes the math lesson for today.
- TimMike,
If the Jays rebuild, could we see some 2009 Las Vegas AAA talent playing key positions for the Jays?
Dopirak 1B?
Ruiz DH?
Phillips C?
Coats OF?
One player that I think should have received at least a look in September was Angel Sanchez. With no other SS prospect close, and Sanchez having a great year @ LAS AAA, why not give him a shot? He is only 26, and his 2009 line was:
.305/.363/.428/.791 with 29 2B, 3 3B, 6HR and 60 RBI
His defense is supposedly above average as well, and he has some speed.
Why not bring him along in 2010, even as a backup on a contender?
MW: Because his defense is certainly not above-average. He’s worth a look on a rebuilding team with no shortstop, though, and if the Jays do pull back on payroll I’d love to see Ruiz and Phillips get shots, and I think they will. I don’t think Dopirak makes the team, and I have a hard time seeing Coats as a starter.
- andy mcMike…Two great memories from playoffs of yore: Jack Morris’ 10 inning masterpiece in Game 7 from the ‘91 WS and the Red Sox comeback/Yankee choke in the 2004 ALCS. Those two stick out in my mind the most ( I excluded the Jays for obvious biased reasons).. I always go back to the 2004 ALCS as probably the most remarkable thing (to me) that happened in any sport. Down 3 games to none with Rivera on the mound and the Curse of the Bambino hovering, and though the Sox deny any curse, I believe it was in their heads…Mike, which of those two examples remains with you more and why, and please add one or more of your own non-Blue Jay favourites of post-season?….Thanks
MW: There’s no such thing as a curse. I think the Red Sox comeback still resonates the most with me. Favourite moments? It’s more memorable moments for me, like Games 4,5 and 7 of the 2001 World Series, Kirk Gibson’s homer, the fantastic Game 6 of the 1986 NLCS, stuff like that.
- chris m.Mike,
Why do we never see a “sacrifice steal”?
Runners on first and third, one out… runner on first goes no matter what, even Barajas… runner on third goes for home when they throw to 2nd… or the runner from first gets 2nd for free if they choose not to throw…
Is this a play that ML teams have tried, or am I nuts?
Is your feeling still that payroll goes down? Even with the CDN dollar over .90?
I have been thinking about how Bautista/Encarnacion fit into the Jays future. I like both, and believe both can hit .280/.350/.450 with 25+ HRs. If Overbay is still here, EE could play 1B vs LHP, with Bautista at 3B.
Who would you rather have in RF full time, Bautista or Hinske? Could we see a return of the former R.O.Y.?
MW: Major league teams try that double-steal play all the time. My feeling is still that payroll goes down. I can’t imagine what would possibly make you believe that Jose Bautista could hit .280/.350/.450 with 25+ homers.
- andy mcI think I’m disappointed that an exciting post season game, was not broadcast in its entirety, not even highlights really, until 7 pm. Instead we have to listen to nonsense . This is the postseason. People are stuck in gridlock and can’t watch the thing on TV. They would listen on the radio.
It boggles the mind. I am now listening to Jon miller and Morgan well into the game at
7: 13
MW: It depends on your definition of nonsense. Hockey and Bob McCown drive the bus at the Fan590 - without them, there’s no station.
- BarbI disagree with you on Wells. I think he should have done the show, and I’m pretty certain that the people who call in are screened before they get to ask their questions, so it should have been easy enough to filter out the crazies who just wanted to scream at the guy. I have no doubt he is a gentleman and a good citizen etc, but he is also the happy recipient of a huge amount of money which at present he is not earning. I think he can be asked what he intends to do in the off-season to improve his performance. I don’t see why that should be an unacceptable question from you or from a fan. He’s been booed, and he doesn’t like it, but it’s been a very frustrating season, and he contributed mightily to that frustration. Even back when the Jays were winning he managed to kill almost every rally he was part of. Later in the season Wells was a major contributor to 1-run losses. Of which there were far, far too many. If he had come on the show he would have greatly gone up in my estimation, because to do a show in such circumstances takes guts.
MW: Yes, it does. But I don’t think it was that he didn’t have the guts to come, I think it was that he didn’t feel like he should go out of his way for people who were pretty rough on him, and often unfairly so.
- isabella reyesHOckey lasts until June, it’s not like they don’t get lots of time to talk about hockey 12 months of the year.
There is only one post season, which is finished,quickly enough, with some series 3 games total. Some baseball was preempted at the beginning of the season, because they were playing the FINALS of the Raptors. People lived with it.
MW: I’m not the one with whom you should be arguing.
- BarbMichael,
Just to update you on Adam Loewen, he hit a 3 run tater and also walked once today.
It’s exciting to see a player of his size with a disciplined strike zone, which leads me to think more power will follow just as it did for Youk eventually. (Though I don’t think Loewen will ever have the chance to be as good as Kevin.)
My question is, do you think we’ll see JP working somewhere in the bigs next season? In Oakland with his pal Billy B. seems like a possible scenario and a friendly destination for him.
MW: I think that there are lots of GM’s who would be very happy to hire J.P. as a special assistant. He said he’s considering sitting out a year while the Jays still pay him, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see him back for a year.
- Uncle BenMike, re the “Math lesson” (Post #47)
I’m not a mathematician, nor am I a gambler, so I really can’t comment on all these “odds” calculations, but it seems intuitively wrong to get “no improvement” in his first example (2/3 wins before and after), but a 10% improvement in the second example (50% to 60%), when the worse team in each example has the same record (1/3 wins).
It seems to me that in each case, playing a .333 team should improve the winning percentage of the better team.
MW: That does seem odd, doesn’t it? I’m no mathematician either, so maybe someone can help us.
- NormSince we’re doing wish list line-ups for the Jays, here’s mine:
Catcher: Rod Barajas. He’s not the best hitter but he handled all those kids really well.
First Base: Adam Lind.
Second Base: Aaron Hill
Short Stop: John McDonald
Third Base: Marco Scutaro
Left Field/DH: Travis Snider
Centre Field: Chone Figgins
Right Field: Vernon Wells
DH/Outfield: Jason Bay
This isn’t a line-up that’ll get the team to the series, but it’s a line-up that should produce some interesting ball-games, and I’m building a team for defense and speed. It should help to shore-up the kindergarten rotation while they learn to be major-league pitchers. I’d also bring back Reed Johnson as a bench player. Yes, it’s pandering to fans like me, but what the hell. He won’t be expensive and after last season the club really needs to reach out to the fans. Bringing back a favourite (and fairly cheap) player would be a reasonable start.
MW: Jason Bay wouldn’t sign here if he and Figgins were the only offensive improvements, and if McDonald and Scutaro formed the left side of the infield. So you’re not off to a great start. Also, don’t hold your breath on Wells moving to an outfield corner.
- reyesmichael,
curious what your thoughts on this are…
witnessing for all to see just how fantastic he has been since coming back (one pedro martinez)
it seems to me that perhaps mlb gm’s (collectively) were a little slow off the mark on pouncing on this guy as a very helpful solution to their starting pitching rotations.
i suppose there’s been nagging injury & possible age concerns to consider when assessing this future hall of famer but certainly in hindsight now there’s quite a few teams in the playoffs & even more not in the playoffs that should have ponied up the bucks on a pro rated 1 yr. basis (think that’s all him & his agent were asking for) to take on his services for this current season.
he signed very late in the season as i recall which probably would make it considerably more difficult to be this effective i would surmise.
but he’s looked just dead on thus far that seems clearly evident.
but what do you think michael?
were all these mlb gm’s somewhat asleep at the switch or were there other circumstances here not front & centre.
you gotta’ believe there was something else to this, cause’ i have a very hard time believing they all simultaneously missed the boat on this one…..
MW: He’s looked pretty good in the overall, but not like the Pedro of yore (except for his last start). I think, though, that the extra time off really, really helped him. Even now, though, he’s not a guy who can throw a lot of pitches (and, therefore, a lot of innings) - he averaged fewer than five innings per start in the regular season and worked that NLCS game on 15 days’ rest and still had to be taken out before he got to 90 pitches. Martinez had made 10 starts for the Phillies this year - three of them have been great, two have been awful.
- darrell bishopHey Mike,
Here’s a random idea I just had. With the surge of the Canadian dollar (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/sports-teams-set-to-cash-inbr-on-strong-canadian-dollar/article1329453/), if it were to get high enough (for the sake of ease of math, lets say $1.10US) would it not make sense to approach Vernon Wells, and ask him to restructure his deal? I’m not asking that Wells take a pay cut, or even decrease term, but rather restructure the deal to make it [U]HEAVILY[/U] front-loaded. Vernon has about $108M left on his deal (I think?). Since the Jays pay in $US, if they were to front load, again for the ease of math, $100M of that for next year’s salary, leaving $8M to disperse over the remaining 4 years, they would save themselves $10M CDN over the course of the contract. Vernon gets his money and long term financial security in the deal, the Jays get $10M in salary relief long term. Even at $1.05US, that’s a $5M savings.
Of course this would require a one-time investment of $100M from Rogers, but you I think you can make the business case to do it. I’m sure there’s something I’m missing here, but I thought I’d throw that at you and see what you thought. I know thats a lot of ‘ifs’…
Enjoy the playoffs!
MW: A lot of if’s indeed. I think Wells would be in favour of getting the big chunk now, I can’t imagine Rogers - or anyone - would ever offer it.
- Kevin A.Mike, regarding a previous post of mine discussing previous Jays contracts, you claimed that the Wells contract was “the only really debilitating one that the Jays have signed”. I would disagree: I feel that the contracts of Rios, Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan (and arguably even AJ Burnett, who produced far below his level of compensation in two of his three seasons) cumulatively kept the Jays from contention, as that money could have been spent in many other more productive ways. In my previous post, I alluded to the notion that a team with a smaller budget must operate with a much more narrow margin of error. The 2009 Jays, were set to pay pro-rated salaries of $18M/$10M/$9M to Wells/Rios/BJ Ryan, which adds up to roughly 40% of a $90M payroll. If the average business spent 40% of their staff costs (especially a business where staff costs are overwhelmingly the greatest expenditure as player costs are to a baseball team’s bottom line) on staff who were unable to perform their duties to anticipated levels, that company would be on the road to bankruptcy. Add in a sprinkling of contracts like a Frank Thomas and Lyle Overbay (only $6M pro-rated, but hitting far below even that level of compensation), and you have a recipe for long-term disaster.
Joe Posnanski from SI wanted to call bad MLB contracts “Ricciardis”, based on the number of poor ones the Jays’ former GM signed over his eight years here. I don’t want to pile on JP here, but as JP himself claimed that the Jays cannot compete with the levels of spending of the Yanks and Red Sox, he had to realize that he needed to be far more judicious with the amount of money that he had to spend.
Personally, as I said in a previous post, I’d rather have a player at MLB minimum at a given position than an overpaid player, because the team would at least have the flexibility to make a move to add salary during the year, rather than be throttled with underperforming talent from Game 1.
In a nutshell, here is my argument: too much of the team’s payroll over the past several years was dedicated to players who did not have seasons that were productive enough to match what they were paid, and this is bad. A team with a mid-range payroll needs to be nearly perfect in how they allocate each dollar of player salaries in order to be competitive, and the Jays have not been in the past few seasons. I hope that this area of management improves in the coming seasons. Thanks for reading, Mike, and I look forward to your take on this.
MW: Your nutshell argument is exactly right. I stand by my statement that Wells’ contract is the only seriously debilitating one, though. What you’re saying is that when you’re not dealing with a huge payroll, you can’t afford to guess wrong. Unfortunately, no one has a crystal ball.
- Dom from WoodbridgeWhat’s with the lack of bloggage?
MW: You want me to blog on the day-to-day of the playoffs?
- TheSunkenZealotHey Mike,
Long time no blog-check. Pretty nice stuff you’re writing, love them. I’m at school, and I’d like to know - WHEN will we fans get to see what the payroll is next year? I thought that it’d come out much quicker than this. When will Toronto announce payroll?
I can’t watch the Leafs without crying, I’m waiting for baseball patiently.
MW: I think we’ll probably hear something by the end of the World Series, but we may never get an exact number.
- PeterI thought alot about the fans treatment of Wells this season, and unfortunately, as ugly as it is, I think the fans had it right.
His home record until the end of July over 49 games (203 plate appearances and 183 AB): 33 H, 57 TB for a BA of .180, OBP of .241, SLG of .311 and OPS of .553. Up until the end of June, he was batting 4 and 3 in the order, clearly a Cito mistake.
He probably wouldn’t have had the boos if he was hitting 7 or 8 in the order and with his very expensive contract. The fans needed a scapegoat (especially after the great start the Jays have), and there he was, sticking out like a sore thumb hitting terribly at home in the middle of the order.
But still, Wells is far better a community ambassador than Rios, even though Rios was hitting far better at home during that same stretch with an OPS of .860 (and if you take out his ugly home stretch at the end of June his OPS is .985).
You can’t boo the rookie pitchers. You certainly can’t boo the other players on the team, most of which were performing to expectations.
I don’t condone the behaviour but I understand the frustration.
–
Two great games on last night. The walk off from the Angels in extras was great and I thought that they had absolutely blown it after Abreu’s baserunning error. Hopefully the Angels can get it done tonight against Sabathia.
Philly got it done magnificenty with the walk off in the bottom of the 9th to completely thrill their fans.
MW: I understand the frustration, too, but he’s not Vince Carter. It’s not like he was trying to hit that badly. Home fans should cut their players some slack, but Wells was made the scapegoat on the field for everything that has gone wrong with the Blue Jays since 1993.
- TimMike…Stroll down memory lane Part 2: I was trying to come out of my Blue Jay/K.C. collapse depression of 1985 by going downtown for a few beverages with the boys and saw the blown call in Game 6 of the ‘85 WS by Don Denkinger on Jorge Orta at a bar on King ST….
a)Mike, do you recall your whereabouts for that infamous play? (There was a real Blue Jay flavour to that game with the Orta call and the winning hit and RBI by Dane Iorg, Garth’s brother.)
b)Did Denkinger have to fear for his safety from irate Cardinals’ fans after that incident ala Mitch Williams in ‘93 and the Cub’s fan who interfered with Alou in 2003?
MW: A - I have ZERO clue where I was that night. B - Chances are.
- chris m.Mike, what are the Jays waiting for in announcing their plans for this year and beyond? Why are they still keeping the fans in the dark? Do we have to wait ’till the after the WS?
- Elii think its time for you to finally agree that Derek jeter is a great player. I know you hate the Yankees but your rooting interest should not get in the way of you giving an honest opinion about a team or a player. Yesterday another great play by Jeter on Abreu being at the right place at the right time just like the play in Oakland.3 Home runs in six games he is flat out a great player
MW: Never once have I said that Jeter isn’t a great player. He’s not a great defensive shortstop and he’s nowhere near as good as everyone seems to think he is, but he’s a great player. First ballot Hall of Famer, no question.
- elliottI respectfully disagree with Isabella above.
- BarbI know you don’t decide how many minutes go to MLB , but we could hope that someone might read the blog , and know what baseball fans want. Love to hear the Yankee games, with the inimitable Jon Miller and Joe Morgan. I was really busy all weekend, and when I heard MOrgan’s voice, I had a smile from ear to ear. If you hear those two, it must be close to the World Series
yeaahhh,
blog about the games (:
how you feel, what happened, RISP, etc…..
a good summary every other day or so would be nice. just asking.
MW: Sorry to disappoint.
- TheSunkenZealotMichael,
The Twins just signed Dominican SS prospect Miguel Angel Sano with a 3 million dollar signing bonus.
Interestingly, in this recent video Sano is wearing a Jays cap:
http://www.globalpost.com/video/sports/090420/dominican-dreams-part-2-miguel-angel-sano
Not sure if it’s because of a reputation the Jays still have in the area or maybe they were trying to recruit him as well and gave him a cap.
Back in the Gillick era the Jays were pioneers in the Dominican market, now they seem almost absent, which makes sense given the talent there is no secret to other teams.
Where do you think the Jays are going to be concentrating their scouting in the future? (Is that why JP made so many Canadian draft picks?)
MW: Alex Anthopoulos has said he wants the Blue Jays to be a real presence in Latin America again. I don’t think that means that their scouting will be specifically concentrated there.
- Uncle BenRegarding the proposal above of fronting Vernon’s deal, I think that a lot better case can be made for asking him, for the good of the team, to go in the other direction.
Even he and his agent can see that circumstances have changed.
He might reject it but I can’t see what the harm would be in TRYING to get him to defer about $7 million a year for the next five seasons to be paid sometime after the end of the deal (say, for instance, $4 mil a year for 10 years if that’s an appropriate amount of interest)
I know, I’ve mentioned it here before but it seems to me Wells would get a lot less grief if the casual fan thought he was playing for $14 mil instead of $21 (noting the superficiality of most hyper-critical fans when I say that)
And it’s not like he’s giving up any actual money - gaining some in fact.
MW: He’d never do it.
- WillRainHey Mike I just wanted to comment on the listing of the players and I really wish they would start giving accurate stats. There is no way Sabathia is 6′7 290lbs, if that man is 6′7 hes 320lbs easy.
Why do they do this anyways, it’s not like hes the first one to be mis-listed and it’s not like it’s striking fear into the eyes of their opponent!
MW: I don’t know why they don’t change the stats to more accurately reflect the current situation. Generally, it’s just laziness.
- Sleepyis this the most talented yankee team ever?
MW: No.
- Paul ORe: comment 57
In addition to the problems you already mentioned, front loading Wells’ contract would never happen because he has a opt-out clause after 2011. If they pay him a ton of money before that, then he’ll likely stand to make more cash afterward by testing the market, and the Jays will have ended up paying him an obscene amount of money for very little playing time.
$126 million over 7 years is already an outrageous contract, but if they front loaded it they’d end up paying him most of that for only 4 years of play.
MW: A good point, but one would imagine that if they changed the contract to front-load it, they’d remove the opt-out.
- TyI must say that Joe Giradi has done a decent yet puzzling job of managing the Yankees..Subbing limp arm Damon in the late innings for defensive purposes and using his bullpen more often then not efficiently..I guess it makes your job a lot easier with a 200+ mil payroll and Rivera waiting in the wings..
Some of his dealings have been a bit odd too..Eventually this over managing business may get him in trouble in Yankeeville..Too many visits to the mound..
Morales, Aybar, Figgins all switch hit and with 4 more of them on the bench, Girardi has his hands full as far as late innings pitching match ups..
The Jays would do well putting together a team like the Angels..They usually play ball efficiently but not so in this series and I think some of that has to do with youth..Their top 4 hitters are all under 27..
Do you think Girardi over manages his pitching staff?..And what are the chances of the Jays competing in the AL East with a team like the Angels?..Assuming of course the Jays increase payroll..
MW: I do think that Girardi overmanages the pitching staff - to an almost ridiculous extent so far in a few of these playoff games. A team like the Angels? You mean one that hits a lot of homers and scores a bunch of runs? Absolutely.
- ray bBarb, I’m not sure which post you’re respectfully disagreeing with!
And as for this:
MW: Wells was made the scapegoat on the field for everything that has gone wrong with the Blue Jays since 1993
No he wasn’t. Wells got booed because of the big contract that he failed to live up to. The fans weren’t thinking farther back than that. The only person to have been made a scapegoat for all the ills we’ve seen in BJ-Land over the past 16 years did not play the field at all, and that would be JP Ricciardi.
As for Wells, I’ve long wondered if the problems he had this season started with hitting right behind a very iffy Alex Rios. Rios was hitting lazy fly ball after lazy fly ball at the beginning of the season, always with men on base. Wells would be hitting behind him and pressing to get the guys over after Rios had failed. I think that may have been the start of his offensive problems, and then things snowballed. If he’d been moved away from Rios earlier, perhaps it would have made a difference. What’s your opinion, Mike?
MW: I don’t buy that - especially because Rios was just fine for about a month and a half after the first three weeks and Wells continued to be awful. Wells isn’t being booed because he hasn’t lived up to the contract. I mean, not entirely. It’s far more than that. If it was just the contract some might actually realize that he’s got five years left on it. The contract doesn’t make fans (including you) think that Wells had a poor season last year when he didn’t.
- reyesMike…Thanks for keeping this thing going through the playoffs…much appreciated!..Trying the other day to think of PREMIER hitters over the years (my era of 1975-present) who noticably choked up on the bat. I came up with Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Barry Bonds, Alan Trammell, Rusty Staub and I think Jose Canseco and George Brett did as well…Guys like Alfredo Griffin or Ozzie Smith I didn’t really consider premier hitters, but that’s my opinion only…Mike, I’m sure I missed lots so please add to my short list?
- chris m.MW: Major league teams try that double-steal play all the time.
As do very minor-league teams. While coaching my 13- and 14-yr old softball team I had the privilege of watching this play turn into 2 outs as follows:
1st and 3rd, 1 out. Runner on 1st takes off on the first pitch. Our catcher, as planned, throws a bullet back to the pitcher hoping to fool the runner on 3rd into coming home (conceding 2nd). Alas the runner at 3rd didn’t bite, but he didn’t return quickly to the bag either and the runner coming into 2nd was so focused on what was happening at 3rd base that he assumed the lead runner was going home - and ignored the frantically waving 3rd base coach - so he headed for 3rd without breaking stride.
Our pitcher (with the ball) drifted over towards 3rd as the lead runner retreated back to 3rd only to be bowled over by a rather badly botched slide by the runner barreling in from first. The pitcher arrived on the scene and tagged both runners, neither of whom were within 3 feet of the bag.
And, darn it, nobody had a camera running at the time.
(The “joy” of coaching 13- and 14-yr olds is that physically a lot of them have suddenly become very strong and fast, but they often have trouble harnessing this new-found power into smart baseball plays.)
Coaching is made all the more fun through the disasters that one can occasionally witness…
MW: Sounds like a lot of fun to watch!
- James (from the Church of the Double Steal)i cant believe you dont think jeter is a great fielding shortstop.if you tell me he is no Omar Vizquel i agree with you, but the guy has won a number of gold gloves playing shortstop why dont those count?
MW: It’s not just Jeter - nobody’s Gold Gloves count. The Gold Glove is the biggest joke award in sports. You have to be a good offensive player to get one, for starters, and so many of them are given out based on reputation that it’s laughable. By any objective measure, Jeter is a below-average to poor fielder.
- elliottHey Mike,
After hearing Tony Viner on with Bob McCown tonight, I’m starting to get confused by the continuous talk about Paul and Alex working on a plan. What do you make of it?
I guess what I’m confused about is what exactly their trying to plan out. Are they trying to write a business plan that says what will happen in Rogers’ bumps or drops the payroll? Are they trying to plan who they would want to go after in free agency or who they’d want to trade away in a rebuild and what they could get back?
I know that the answer is “nobody knows yet”, but as a fan grasping for straws, what does this prolonged ‘planning’ period say to you?
On a side note, you mentioned a few times that JJ Hardy would be a good fit for the Jays to try to trade for this off-season and I completely agree. I know Milwaukee would like pitching in return, so what from the Jays do you think it would take to land him? Hardy is only under team control for one more year, right?
Thanks very much for your time Mike!
MW: Because the Brewers sent Hardy down for a couple of weeks in August, he’s now under control for two more years. I wouldn’t give up a whole lot for him, but I would certainly offer an Edwin Encarnacion or Brad Mills type to bring him in. That is, if the Jays are upping payroll and trying to contend in 2010. If they’re not, then there’s no point in going after Hardy. I don’t know why there’s been a delay, but I know that Alex has been working day and night to try to put together the best system he can, and he’s got a ton of ideas as to where to take the team.
- BretWhy do you think A-rod has taken harsh and unfair critism over his post season failings?
MW: Because he’s very, very easy to dislike.
- andrewFirst, I don’t think the average MLB bat is 30-31 ounces…..too light. I’m about 180lbs, and swing a 33-ouncer. Bats lighter than that start getting short & “toothpicky”. I think Bonds used to use a 37-ouncer….a beast! My guess is the average is 34.
Anyways, the real reason I write is that I just read an interesting idea. An Indians fan suggested trading Kelly Shoppach for Brian Tallet.
My initial reaction was: definitely! Shoppach has better WAR than Barajas, and a better OPS. He’s also much younger. However, Tallet is very useful for the Jays.
What do you think? Good deal?
MW: I think that Shoppach is likely to be non-tendered, so I wouldn’t give up anything for him until December.
- RomeMW: It’s not just Jeter - nobody’s Gold Gloves count. The Gold Glove is the biggest joke award in sports. You have to be a good offensive player to get one, for starters, and so many of them are given out based on reputation that it’s laughable. By any objective measure, Jeter is a below-average to poor fielder.
If by any objective measure you mean this year’s UZR or a number of other defensive stats then you’re wrong. Jeter made himself into a better fielder this year. Give him credit.
MW: Jeter did make himself into a better fielder this year, you’re right. But a guy who hits .230/.280/.310 for ten years and then has one year where he hits .270/.335/.420 is still a below-average to poor hitter.
- Uncle BenIn 2007 the Jays signed VW with the big contract based on his stellar performance and the market of the day. The issue is with term and the March signing bonuses, which run counter to some comments saying its back end weighted. In my mind he’s been captain of the team since 2006 and should be doing the public relations.
- Jake inThornhillfrasor has been a good reliever, but I think it would’ve been ‘Werth’ it to hold on to the other Jason
bam!
MW: You do realize that since the Jays traded Werth to the Dodgers, he missed a season and a half injured and wound up leaving L.A. as a free agent, right?
- Paul Oi dont understand how you can say the gold glove is a joke.Yes it is true that some players who were great fielders and won a number of gold gloves may get one or two extra at the end of their career based on reputation. But i would like to know the player who was a poor fielder as you called Jeter who won his first gold glove while he was a poor fielder?
MW: Ummmm, that would be Jeter. Nate McLouth, too. Rafael Palmeiro once won a Gold Glove in a season in which he played 28 games at first base and 135 at DH. The Gold Glove has been a joke for years.
- elliottMike,
Would Aaron Hill and Brett Cecil get King Felix? I think Hill will have a fine career, but I’d be really surprised if, when it’s all said and done, 2009 isn’t considered his careeer year. Sell high.
Would a rotation of Halliday, Hernandez, Marcum, Zep., ? (Purcy/McGowan/ Litsch et al.) and a lineup with (catcher), Fielder, Hudson, Figgins/Encarnacion, Scutaro, Bay, Wells, Snider and Lind give us a decent chance of making the postseason?
Sounds as if AA has the opportunity to sell Mr. Viner on a larger payroll. If he were to do this deal, then go to Rogers and ask for money to sign Bay and Hudson and maybe Figgins, and also permission to shoot at re-upping Hallidays contract. I expect Halliday to be true to his word; he’d prefer to stay in Toronto, if we were committed to winning. I think these changes would convince him of their intention to compete.
Regards,
RSC.
MW: Hill and Cecil would be a very good start, I would say. It probably wouldn’t take much more to get the job done, if Seattle is actually serious about dealing The King. If there’s money to go get Bay, Figgins and maybe Hudson then the team could be only some small tweaks away from immediate contention, yes.
- S. CharlesMike, I don’t know why JP and baseball people in general sign position players to large contracts (with a very small percentage exception). Mid market teams like the Jays must focus their dollars on the position (pitching) which has the greatest influence on the outcome of the game. This is not just a baseball decision, it is a business decision. The pitcher is in control of every play your team is on the field. If they do their job well, the rest of the players still have to field and hit etc but you must have pitching first. The anologies are goaltending in hockey (if you don’t have one you will not win(just ask the Leafs). In football it is the quarterback (just ask the Argos). Alex Ovechkin can score 60 goals but if your goalie lets in a few softies all that goes for not. I have no problem with the contract that was given to B. J. Ryan and if you watched the games he pitched in early on when he got here, the team took on a whole new confidence level when he was there. The only thing they did wrong was over use him and unfortunately he broke down. Not his fault.
MW: The Blue Jays led the major leagues in pitching - by far - in the 2008 season. They finished in 4th place.
- mike glattI was rooting for the Dodgers, but Congratulations to the Phillies and I hope they win the world series.
- AmyMW: Jeter did make himself into a better fielder this year, you’re right. But a guy who hits .230/.280/.310 for ten years and then has one year where he hits .270/.335/.420 is still a below-average to poor hitter.
Would you tell a woman who was 300 pounds who worked her way into a svelte 130 pounds that she was still fat?
MW: Apples and oranges.
- Uncle BenMike, there have been a number of comments recently concerning the desirability of going after Orlando Hudson.
I’m not sure I agree — it seems if he was so desirable, he would have been starting most (or all) of the playoff games. Instead, he gets 4 ABs in the NLCS, with Ronnie Belliard getting virtually all the innings at 2b (not sure if he played at all in the Divisional series). Is/was he hurt, or has his skill set declined so badly that Belliard beats him out?
Or did he get into Torre’s “O-dog house”?
MW: He’s definitely in Torre’s O-Dog house. I can’t imagine a world in which Ronnie Belliard grades out to be better defensively than Hudson, so I’m interested in seeing the numbers at the end of the season. Belliard caught fire at the plate after his August 30th trade to the Dodgers, hitting .351/.398/.636 for L.A., while the O-Diggity hit .227/.354/.364 over that same stretch.
- Normmike,
the jays had the best pitching in 2008.
they did not have a good team.
pitching is only one half of the side of baseball; you can’t lose 2-1, 3-2, 3-0.
it is like cherry-picking in basketball.
if one man is at the other end of the court for a full game, you can score 120 points, but you will always give up 130+.
there are two sides to a baseball team. the jays had the best half in 08.
MW: The are actually three, and the Jays had the best 2/3.
- TheSunkenZealotMike,
I commented earlier on Vernon needing to man up and face the media like Pettite and Arod. And the funny thing is you mentioned me to be naive. I played college ball at tue D1 level, and totally believe them to be liars, but that is not the issue. I love the jays, and vernon as I have watched him progress since AAA days. He has been an outstanding player, I just do not want to see him shy away from any questions. As a leader he has that responsibilty. I would love to hear him open and honest about his struggles, than to shy away. He is the face of the franchise, and I miss hearing him! Keep up the good work!
MW: Again, you’re saying you want him to be open and honest and yet you’re citing Pettitte and A-Rod as examples. Would you rather him show up in front of the microphones and just say things he doesn’t feel or mean?
- Danyou say there are three sides to a baseball team, i say there are two
defense and pitching both combine for one purpose - reducing the amount of runs as much as possible.
I call that a half, because you use your defense and your pitching at the same time. if you say pitching and defense take up 2/3, it is like saying power and speed take up 2/3.
MW: No, it’s not.
- TheSunkenZealotexplain comment 92?
why is defense ‘1/3′ of the team?
why hitting 1/3?
i thought offense should be 1/2
and defense should be 1/2
since you only play half the game scoring and half the game defending
MW: Defense is one of the three components to putting a team together. It’s independent of hitting and mostly independent of pitching. It’s kind of like three components to a football team are offense, defense and special teams. No one is suggesting that special teams are on the field a third of the time.
- TheSunkenZealotMW: The contract doesn’t make fans (including you) think that Wells had a poor season last year when he didn’t.
He didn’t have a terrible season last year, but he was the best of a terrible bunch. And he did not have a fantastic season. I’m sticking to my guns. Wells isn’t being booed because he is the target of our frustration over the past 16 years. He isn’t, Mike. He’s being booed because he almost never saw a double-play ball he didn’t hit straight at 2nd base. He’s being booed because with 2 men on and fewer than 2 outs he relentlessly flied out or grounded out or hit into the above-mentioned double-play. He killed just about every rally he came within 2 miles of. Over and over again Wells didn’t get the guys on base over. He didn’t get the rbi, the tying run or the go-ahead run. I’m sorry, but the fans’ frustration was simple and straightforward, there was no historic gloss, no ‘why isn’t he more like Paul Molitor?!’ It was all ‘what in hell are we paying for?!’
MW: It was all “what in hell are we paying for”, it’s true, but with no regard to what he’d done last year, or in previous years, or the fact that he’s 30 years old and in the top five in almost every offensive category in team history. Very rarely are such players treated the way Wells was this season.
- isabella reyesThe fans had a horrible season. The team started out great and we all thought ‘maybe….’ then they fell right into the toilet. From the beginning Wells wasn’t delivering. If Ricciardi had been a player/GM he would have been the one we jeered, but he wasn’t on the field and Wells was. Yes, we were angry and frustrated and that anger and frustration grew and grew until, by the 3/4 point, this was as cranky and ornery a band of fans as you would ever not want to see. Wells caught the runt of that anger. But I still contend that the previous 16 years had not much to do with it.
- isabella reyes