11:20 PM Eastern
In what’s been just an awful homestand. Between the sweep at the hands of the Red Sox and these last two losses to the Rays, it’s almost as though the series win against the Angels didn’t even happen.
At best, it will wind up a 3-6 homestand.
It’s kind of sad when a Little League World Series game between two teams that have already been eliminated is more compelling. What a finish that was, huh? By the way, we’re trying to get Katie Reyes on Baseball Today tomorrow.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Also on Baseball Today tomorrow, we’ll have David Price and probably something else, too, but I just can’t remember right now.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome.
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Hey MW
Does MLB preform a lottery to determine the position of non-playoff teams in the draft?
MW: Nope.
- Brent from Sarniamike, the fatal flaw in your argument is that you believe that just because JP can’t win that means no other gm could possibly win. I dont subscribe to that belief. I believe a competent gm, who drafts well and signs good contracts can win with a 100 mil payroll.
MW: That would be the fatal flaw in my argument if it were true. It’s not. I don’t believe that at all.
- vinnyhow many lefty closers are there? how many have there been in the past 10 years? given the jays have had 2 of them blow up I dont want to see a third ever again.
MW: Don’t forget Randy Myers. There haven’t been many. I can think of Billy Wagner, Brian Fuentes, J.P. Howell, C.J. Wilson in addition to Ryan.
- vinny“On a side note, could Ruiz be for real? Are there other cases in history like him ie. spending the majority of their career in the minors and then making an impact after age 30?”
MW: It would be pretty cool if Ruiz is for real, but the Blue Jays don’t seem to think so. I can’t think of anyone else who was a career minor-league then made an impact after turning 30.
There was a guy quite awhile back, played with the New York Knights I believe, Hobbs I think his name was, who came up at an advanced age and really tore it up. Can’t recall exactly what happened to him after that one magical year.
MW: Yeah. He was something else. A real natural.
- Senior FelixMW: I can’t think of anyone else who was a career minor-league then made an impact after turning 30.
Matt Stairs didn’t do much until he turned 31. Ludwick had his breakout season at age 29.
_____________________________
MW: Mauer is leading the league in average, on-base and slugging. All by wide margins. As a catcher! He’s the MVP.
Mauer won’t win if the Twins miss the playoffs. Put your money on Jeter. It’s all those intangibles you know. Half the writers won’t even consider anybody else.
MW: I thought about Ludwick, but his breakthrough season was at age 28 – his career year was at 29. Stairs had two solid big-league seasons and a whack of cups of coffee before he turned 31.
- stat ladyTeam Canada was brilliant. It was great for them to get a win. And, for Reyes to come up with a big hit (especially after her teeny-tiny brain cramp in the first game). Canada’s first LLWS win in a few years, and possibly the first game-winning hit by a girl in LLWS history. Awesome! And, how can you not love little Ryan Wong? That kid got full value on every swing.
Every game they played was enthralling. Especially, against Mexico and Taiwan. When they shook hands, you could really see how much smaller Team Canada was.
Congratulations to all of them. That little town produced a nice competitive bunch.
MW: Hear, hear.
- RomeMW: The Rays were the laughingstock of baseball for 10 years, and they made the playoffs last year, becoming the first team other than the Yankees and Red Sox to make the playoffs out of the A.L. East since 1997. Let’s see them do it again.
why do they have to do it again? isn’t it good enough that they are very good? your claim was that you cant win in the al east, well the rays are blowing that theory out of the water again. it is a myth. the rays arent complaining about playing the yanks and sox 38 times a year so why are you?
MW: Why do they have to do it again? Because if they don’t, it proves the point even more – you can be a very good team in the AL East and still have a very slim chance of making the playoffs. Just like the Jays were and did from 2006-08.
- vinnyHere’s a little something about hitting. It’s from a documentary on senses by the BBC. It talks a little bit about hitters, and how they don’t react to pitches (even though, I think the best ones are guess-hitters). Rather, that their brains are so quick at calculating spin & speed, they ACTUALLY PREDICT were the pitch is going to end up.
The baseball stuff starts about 6 minutes in. (Actually, the whole thing is fascinating.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2sWE0qaOjg&feature=related
It’s a nice glimpse into how super-human MLB players really are. Not only are they hitting a round ball with round bat, into a 90-degree playing field. They are figuring out where a 90mph cutter is going to cross the plate!
Having played some rep ball as a teen, I can remember how overwhelmed I was after seeing my first 80mph fastball. So, watching Travis Snider smack a shot off of Windows Restaurant is truly awesome stuff.
- RomeHi Mike,
I was looking at Overbay’s and Hill’s numbers last night and Overbay’s OBP is better than Hill’s. Do you think it might be worth a try to switch them in the order that way Lind and Hill have a better chance of coming up with two runners on rather than Hill coming up with just Scutaro on?
MW: I have always thought that Overbay would be a good fit higher in the order, but he doesn’t like hitting second.
- DovLove your statement about the Little League game vs. Jays games. Personally, the only benefit that the awful Jays bring is the extra time I have to do other things around the house– I stoped watching/listening to Jays baseball.
MW: And yet, you’re still here. Thanks for that, I guess.
- ALTHey Mike,
Just a comment, I have notived Marco Scutaro has been reaching base in every game for a while now. He reached base safely in the last 6 to seven games of the top of my head. How long has he reached base safely in a row so far?
Thanks
D
MW: Going into Wednesday night’s game, Scutaro had reached base safely in one straight game. He had an 11-game streak snapped Monday night.
- DHi Mike
Just wondering what you think the chances are the Ruiz will be on the big league next year? Personally I think he would be a good candidate for DH and to spell Overbay at 1B. It would be cheap option and allow the jays to invest in other areas? Any chance?
MW: See above.
- Tim KerrMike, should the Jays utilize Hill’s power a little better by hitting him 3rd or even 4th? Or is he best used at 2nd?
MW: At this point, he’s probably best used as a 5th-place hitter until he gets that walk rate up.
- JackDo the Jays consider Bobby Abreu as a primary DH/4th outfielder? Keep the OF Lind, Wells and Snider?
MW: Sure, they could. I’m not sure he’s a guy on whom they’re going to key, though.
- Aaron KerThe Jays seem to have had a lot of young, promising catchers in the farm system, only to have them seemingly reach their peak around AAA. Names such as Robinzon Diaz and Josh Phelps come to mind. Now, Arencibia and Jeroloman seem to be following suit. Is there any reason for this? Might we see either of them as September call-ups?
MW: Jeroloman hasn’t even made it to AAA, and Arencibia has had a rough time at that level, so it’s a little early for even that. I doubt either one will be a September call-up this year.
- chazMike,
What happened to Robert Ray? Is he done for the year?
Also, is Kyle Phillips being groomed as a catcher. I noticed he has caught quite a few games at AAA while hitting over .300. Will we see him catching as a September call-up?
MW: Ray managed to avoid surgery and is likely to play in the Arizona Fall League. I expect we’ll see Phillips up here as a 3rd catcher in September.
- Robertmichael,
this is unfortunately becoming a little difficult to watch now isn’t it.
the last few seasons they’ve maintained a brave face & strong finishes down the stretch to keep it somewhat compelling.
this certainly has a different feel to it no doubt.
a (as we speak) down & out halladay, soon shutting down some of the young starting pitchers, a batting order lacking needless to say, a manager going about his ways in the same old fashion which is ok “perhaps” but (not really changing anything up for the sake of change)
anyway… hill, snider, lind, ruiz, hopefully a couple call ups next month that show us something. that’s about it i guess isn’t it?
i find booze helps a bit…
MW: A “down and out” Halladay? Seriously? You’re right, though, it has become tough to watch. But hey, a lot of fans complained the last few years about how they’d play well down the stretch when they were already out of it. This is better than that, no?
- darrell bishopMike…Before it became official, the FOX broadcasters were talking on Saturday about if Wagner came to Boston. They were wondering that with Wagner aboard and the kid Bard who throws close to 100 mph, does that make Papelbon trade bait in the off-season? That’s assuming of course that Boston controls Wagner in 2010. Do you think that scenario is possible Mike?
MW: Not really.
- chris m.Hey Mike cant seem to find how to email Baseball Today. I just have a quick question that I was wondering if you could address it on air. I am going down to the game tonight. What time is batting practice and can I get in early to watch it.
Thanks
MW: Generally the Jays hit from about 4:40-5:30, and I think the gates open at 5:30.
- GregI just wanted to congratulate Aaron Hill for his 30 home run season. It was awesome to see him bounce back this year from what could have easily been a career-ending injury. By what I’ve heard about Mr. Hill as a person, it could not have happened to a better guy. He also plays the game the right way and is a class-act on the field. When he his that bomb, knowing it had a good chance of going out as soon as it hit the bat, he put his head down and SPRINTED around the bases until the ball was over the wall. Now that’s a ball player! In an era where everyone (especially us in Toronto it seems) wants to criticize players for being over-payed, lazy, stupid, etc., here is a guy worth cheering for. Let’s get behind him Toronto!
Congratulations Aaron!
- ScottMike,
I want to challenge some old school thinking in baseball and see if you agree with me or not. Pitching and defense wins games but not for the Jays in the AL East. The Jays pitching has been great the last couple of years especially but if you go back to when JP started or even the last decade or so, the Jays teams which have won the most games, in general, are the ones who’ve hit the best, and the ones which have pitched the best. Basically, Jays teams which had mediocre to poor pitching but good offense won more games than good pitching and mediocre to poor hitting. The AL East is full of good hitting parks and the juggernauts offenses of Boston and NY just keep killing the Jays (and winning), no matter how good or bad the pitching is. The Rays have won largely on their ridiculous ability to get hits at the right time and just hit enough to win.
Second, pitchers are not as valuable as people keep saying it is. I’ve heard so many times people saying how you “can’t” trade for pitching. Well, I think the market the last several season if not more has proven that pitching can be had. Relievers are worth next to nothing on the trade market and even closers who get traded don’t get a great return of players.
My point is, everyone needs pitching but pitching without much offense can’t win games in the AL East. Stockpiling pitchers through the draft is fine but trying to trade good pitchers for a good position player just doesn’t seem to happen much. It’s more like a position player for 2-3 pitchers.
MW: I don’t know about that last bit. I agree with you that pitching and defense isn’t enough in the AL East, though.
- JoachimCurses ! I see Lester starts Sunday vs Doc in Boston. I’ve got tickets and was hoping to see Ruiz/Snider play. 1) What is your best estimate (I won’t hold you to it) of Cito’s decision on the lineup for Snider Ruiz and Overbay ?
2) Is Cito likely to sit Overbay and play Millar at 1st ? 3) don’t you think Cito should let Snider start against some tough lefties now ?
MW: Ruiz is a right-handed hitter. Snider is playing every day, so there’s a good chance he’ll play on Sunday, though not so much Overbay.
- RezMichael,
I remember how Paul Molitor was renowned for his bat speed. Aaron Hill’s swing seems similarly quick to me.
Is bat speed something teams can and do measure for individual players?
MW: They can, I don’t know how many actually test to see how quick a player’s bat is, though.
- Uncle BenWho would have thought before this season that Aaron Hill would belt 30+ HR’s before the end of August or be 1 homer out of 2nd place in the American League Big Bopper Race with just over 30 games to go!?
We’d all be lying if we saw this coming! Great stuff A-Hill!
- Anthony LMike,
Long time listener and reader and lover of your insight.
I notice that when some callers refer to the Jays as ‘we’ or ‘us’ you very quickly correct them. I recognize that I am not a member of the Jays. ‘We’ don’t win or lose – the Jays, as a team, win or lose.
There are lots of people who may feel a connection to the team and identify or want to be a ‘part’ of the team. Given the lack of support (in attendance at least) this year is the use of the royal ‘we’ something that should be discouraged? Should we not want fans to feel that they are a part of the team? Don’t we want to foster the participation and continued loyalty of these types of fans?
Do the players have thoughts on this issue or is it just a pet peeve of yours.
Spratt
P.S. Thank-you for your correction of the mispronunciation of names – please people its Halladay not Holladay
MW: You’re welcome – and it’s a pet peeve.
- SprattDo you think Darin Paul Mastroianni might be one of the September call ups? It makes sense to add some speed to the bench.
MW: It does, but if they want to do that, they’ll call up Buck Coats, not Mastroianni. There’s no reason to start his clock.
- Uncle BenMike,
Just listened to last nights Jays Talk – it appears a caller beat me to the question above.
PLAYOFFS!
- SprattWhen winter 2010 comes around and we look at Vernon Wells as a player, will he have a better statistical year in 2009 or 2010? Do you see him being much more effective next season?
MW: 2010 – how could he be worse than he’s been this year?
- AdamThe Jays won’t be able to compete with the current bullpen next year; that is, all of Tallet, Camp, Janssen and Carlson, and even Downs, who increasingly relies on a below average fastball, seems suspect. They’ll need live arms in the pen along with reliable bats. And they’re going to need a manager who knows how to win or lose games with his best pitchers on the mound. For instance, there is no way a team should lose a game in extras with Shawn Camp pitching multiple innings. And there is no way Shawn Camp should be in late in a game down by only two runs, while the next night Jason Frasor, their closer, comes in a game down by four runs. Cito’s all but nuts, or he has simply forgotten how to help his team win.
MW: You really think the insult was warranted?
- Will, OshawaWell Mike you made me do some stats and it takes a bit of time to compile.
But in the 17 games from the end of the all-star break where the Jays went 7 and 10 (and takes them to the end of the 2-game mini series with the Yanks, the stats are like this:
BA .256 (150-586), 76 RBIs (4.0 RBIs/game).
Best inning, #4, 15 RBIs, .315 BA
Worst Inning, #9, ZERO RBIs, .119 BA. By far, this is the reason why the Jays don’t come from behind.
Only 5 RBIs in the 8th inning with a BA of .269.
I’ll have more for you later.
I don’t really like Bautista at 3rd. I know his fielding is only slightly below league average for the position and is better than Encarnacion but he is far worse than the rest of the infield. He just seems far worse than the stats indicate, interfering a bit with Scutaro and missing some plays that I think Rolen would have. I prefer him in OF and he was getting quite a few assists.
We’ll see how Ruiz settles in as the pitchers learn to throw him but he is a welcome punch to the team.
MW: Why are you using RBIs?
- TimRays 3-4:
Pena-Longoria
Jays 3-4:
Wells-Millar
Why does Cito put Millar in the fourth spot? It may be the worst continous decision he’s made all year.
MW: Because he’s a veteran.
- RenegadeHi Mike
I’ve got a theory on why the Jays struggle in late innings. The Jays don’t have enough lefty bats. Most bullpens just have 1 loogy, but have a few RH pitchers who have a low nineties fastball, and some kind of slider. These are the kind of pitchers that will give the RH bats on the Jays fits for a couple of innings.
The Yankees are hitting well late in games, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that that they can put 7 LH bats in their lineup.
MW: That may have something to do with it, but what about the 4th through the 6th?
- Alex HMike,
Vernon was staring down Kazmir after he just struck him out. I’ve noticed Vernon is doing that a lot this season. What’s Vernon’s deal? I think he’s lucky pitchers haven’t yapped or talked more trash to him. It seems like a confrontation (or bean ball) waiting to happen.
MW: You think he was staring Kazmir down, or you think he was maybe looking out there thinking “oh, so you’ve read the book on me, too, huh?”
- JoachimMW: Why do they have to do it again? Because if they don’t, it proves the point even more – you can be a very good team in the AL East and still have a very slim chance of making the playoffs. Just like the Jays were and did from 2006-08.
actually mike, the rays have a better winning % vs the east than both the red sox and the yankees. their downfall is their record vs the central and west. so if they were in those divisions they would actually be worse. so being in the al east has nothing to do with why the rays aren’t in first place.
MW: The same things were said about the Jays the last couple of years.
- vinnyMW.. you stated that MLB does not do a draft lottery. So in the past have teams tanked the season when they are completely out of the playoff picture to get a better draft pick?
Should the Blue Jays tank the rest of the year?
MW: No.
- Brent from SarniaMW: That would be the fatal flaw in my argument if it were true. It’s not. I don’t believe that at all.
If you believe that then that means JP should be fired because he hasn’t been able to win in 9 years. you can’t say that JP should keep his job and at the same time say another gm could do better.
MW: If that were true, then no GM should keep his job, because no matter who you are (except for maybe one guy), there’s always someone out there who is better than you.
- vinnyMW: The same things were said about the Jays the last couple of years.
and your point is…?
MW: My point is that you’re making my point for me. And please tone down the attitude.
- vinnywhat is vw stats when he puts the first pitch in play? it seems that he pops it up a lot.
MW: Since you asked nicely, he’s hitting .284/.284/.567 in that situation, well below his career average of .336/.337/.584.
- vinnythe real reason that the jays dont make the playoffs is that they cant beat the weak teams like kc, oakland, texas, rays.
no matter what division you are in the sox/yanks are odds on to take the wildcard so youd have to win the division and every division has good teams. the jays wouldn’t be beating la or texas this year. the al east is just an excuse that JP uses to justify his poor record and the media just eats it up.
MW: It’s not true.
- vinnyHey look, another horrendous offensive performance by the Blue Jays.
- HalyconI dont understand why you dont feel it necessary to have any proof to back up your statements. In 2006 the jays won 87 games but they were .500 vs al central, west and interleague. If they played in those divisions they wouldnt have won any more games. they also had the benefit of beating up on tampa and baltimore who lost a combined 193 games. detroit the wild card team was 29 games above .500 vs cent, west and interleague. if you could actually show me which year the jays would have made the playoffs if they played in the central or west then maybe I could believe this al east myth.
MW: It’s impossible to extrapolate what a team’s record would have been simply by pro-rating the games they played against who would have been their opponents. Does not the fact that only ONCE in the last 11 years has a team other than the Yankees and Red Sox made the playoffs out of the A.L. East speak volumes to you?
- vinnyI’m so happy Cito didn’t pinch-hit for Millar.. it’ll give him great confidence for next year!
- RenegadeMW: It’s impossible to extrapolate what a team’s record would have been simply by pro-rating the games they played against who would have been their opponents. Does not the fact that only ONCE in the last 11 years has a team other than the Yankees and Red Sox made the playoffs out of the A.L. East speak volumes to you?
no mike, it doesn’t because it’s too simplistic to make that statement without looking deeper into the facts. you also don’t look into the alternative as I did which is what would have happened if the jays played in the central or west?
your’re also talking about a small sample of just 3 teams. baltimore has been a poorly managed team for 10 years. using them as proof is weak. they wouldn’t be winning anywhere. tampa had a very low payroll for a long time so I dont think it was realistic to expect them to win. now they have increased it to an average level and they are competing. the jays also had a low payroll for the first few years and have increased it but you assume that JP has done a great job. I dont think he has and the jays record was masked by one dominant roy halladay. those 10 years you cite, JP has been the gm for 9 of them. you cant separate the al east myth with the jp myth until jp gets fired. If your doctor tells you that you are sick you will believe it until you get a second opinion. JP keeps saying he cant win in the al east. until you hire another gm you will never know if that is actually true. I truly believe that if a new gm had been hired a few years ago the jays could have made the playoffs. unfortunatley the next gm will be stuck with vw albatross and possibly no roy halladay which will make it a lot tougher.
MW: I don’t think it’s simplistic at all. Look at the last 11 years, across the game. Look at the fact that the Blue Jays had the second-best run differential in the league last year and finished nine games out of the playoffs.
- vinnyPretty sad that Millar is wearing a different cap than the rest of the team tonight.
It’s bad enough the way they’re playing, let alone not being able to coordinate what caps they’re wearing on a given night!
Ridiculous! Something you’d see in Pee Wee ball.
MW: Really? I didn’t notice. I know he was wearing blue socks while everyone else was wearing black, though.
- CamMW: It’s impossible to extrapolate what a team’s record would have been simply by pro-rating the games they played against who would have been their opponents.
why is it impossible? if the jays have a poor record vs central and west teams, then playing more games against them wouldn’t result in a better record.
MW: It’s impossible. Who’s to say that since you went, say, 3-3 against the Twins that you’d also have gone 9-9 against them?
- vinnyrun differential is meaningless. why are you changing the topic? if you win 10-1 then lose 5 1 run games you will have a positive run diff. all it means is that you lost a lot of 1 run games and blew out more teams than you got blown out. it is very simple to prove. jays have a pos run diff this year but..
jays 21-16 in 5+ run games
jays 15-22 in 1 run games
simple math will give you a pos run diff.
MW: Run differential isn’t meaningless at all. The most important thing an offense can do is score runs and the most important thing a defense can do is prevent runs. I’m not going to continue this anymore, I’ve had enough. We’ll have to agree to disagree.
- vinnyMW: It’s impossible. Who’s to say that since you went, say, 3-3 against the Twins that you’d also have gone 9-9 against them?
the sample size was 88 games games in 2006. you’re only adding about 40 games. isn’t 88 games enough to extrapolate an additional 40 games? you also lose 40 games vs the east in which you had a pos win perc.
MW: As I said, I’m finished with this…..arc? Thread? Argument? However you want to say it.
- vinnyOK maybe this is irrational, but I like Barajas, the guy has some moxy despite the low OBP.
I doubt it they are going to get a top notch catcher anyway. So why not keep him?
MW: If they can’t do better, they could easily bring him back.
- Stevehave you been watching the rios boxscores? he started hitting third and now is down to 8th. every game he leads his team in K’s and now has a .550 ops. .209 obp. I wonder if kenny has placed him on waivers again.
MW: It’s a very small sample size. It’s like writing off Edwin Encarnacion.
- ajitHi Mike,
I was listening to the show the other day and you opposed a caller saying that the Jays are a “bad team”, citing the past couple of seasons, and how they were above .500 with great pitching, defense, etc.
I think you may have missed his point however. He was stating that attendance is down this year because they are a bad team this year. It would be difficult for you to convince me that they aren’t a bad team this year.
Ten games below .500 with no major injuries to blame. Would you really want to drive into the city and pay for tickets to a game which featured Wells, Millar, McDonald, Chavez and Bautista in the starting lineup?
They were pretty good the last few years. They are a bad team this year. This could easily explain the attendance drop.
MW: They are a bad team this year, or at least, they have a very bad record, and that does explain some of the drop as the summer has progressed. But the attendance was down when they were the best team in the league, too.
- Geoff“MW: Since you asked nicely, he’s hitting .284/.284/.567 in that situation, well below his career average of .336/.337/.584.”
what could have possibly happened in that one at bat in his career where he put the first pitch in play, but it somehow registered for his obp, but not his BA?
is that a typo, or how is something like that possible?
MW: He was hit by a first pitch once. The stats take into account every scenario in which the plate appearance ended on the first pitch, which I guess is more all-encompassing than just putting the ball in play.
- Jay BMike,
I was watching the TV broadcast today and finally noticed the position of the second base umpire. Since he’s standing in the path of some balls hit up the middle (towards right-centre field), won’t his positioning end up interfering some balls in play?
I would think standing directly behind 2B would be the best positioning for a 2B umpire.
What do you think of the idea of getting rid of a 2B umpire just for the occasional interferences players have to deal with? The home plate umpire can make the main calls with the 1B and 3B umpires helping out.
Thanks
MW: I don’t like that idea.
- James from MississaugaI love the entry you did a couple back with what moves you would do this off season, but really what makes Hardy a better option than resigning McDondald and giving him the starting job, it’s a shame to see Mac shafted by this organization time and time again (IMO). I understand he can’t hit but you were saying “if the bat doesn’t come back then at least you keep a strong glove at shortstop who bats 9th” but the Jays can have that with McDonald who is a much cheaper option and has always had phenomenal defense, I don’t know maybe it’s a crazy idea but I’ve been a Mac fan before his bandwagon rolled through and would love to see him out there plus it would save some money that we could use to sign other players that might have to be overpaid. Not to mention I’m not ready to give up on Edwin over at 3B.
MW: Well, moving Edwin would have also coincided with bringing in Orlando Hudson to play second and moving Aaron Hill to third, thereby making Encarnacion redundant. The difference between Hardy and Johnny Mac is that by bring in Hardy you hope that he finds the stroke that helped him hit .283/.343/.478 last year. Even this year, his worst, he hit more home runs than McDonald has hit in his entire career.
- SleepyHey Mike,
Why the case in defending Lyle Overbay so much?
You’re quick to point out that the first base and second base positions have combined for 46 home runs and you can live with that.
What if Joe Inglett was playing second base? Could you live with Overbay’s production then?
You can pretty much combine any infielder’s home run totals with Aaron Hill’s 30 and it would be acceptable. Why the eagerness to group Hill’s production with Overbay?
You mention Overbay is one of the Jays’ top hitters against right-handed pitching . . . what happens to that hole in the lineup when the Jays are playing their AL East rivals and Overbay is on the bench against CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Jon Lester and Andy Pettitte?
The fact is, Overbay is among the bottom quarter in offensive production among primary first basemen in major league baseball. Ty Wigginton, Mike Jacobs and Daniel Murphy are the only two primary first basemen who have driven in fewer than Overbay’s 51 runs and Wigginton is a first baseman by default since the Orioles got rid of Huff and Murphy is replacing Delgado.
If on-base percentage is Overbay’s thing, his .387 OBP is not among the top 10 among first basemen in baseball.
When fans say the Jays can improve at first base, they have a legitimate point.
Overbay is the seventh most productive first-base option in the AL East right now, behind Teixeira, Youkilis, Pena, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Nick Swisher.
But that’s OK, the Jays can keep Overbay at first base next year, the defence is fine. But they have to sign a DH like Hideki Matsui or Bobby Abreu to make up for Overbay’s lack of production.
MW: There’s never been a question that the Jays can improve at first base, and I’ve never argued otherwise. If Joe Inglett was playing second and hitting four home runs, then Overbay’s low home run production would be far more of an issue, but Inglett isn’t, and the guy who is has hit 31 home runs. I don’t know why it’s such a big deal that Overbay doesn’t hit lefties well – it’s easy to find a guy who can play first and crush lefties, the Jays just haven’t looked hard for one. A team faces far more right-handed pitchers than it does lefties, and Overbay leads all A.L. first basemen with a .415 obp against righties. I think in the overall, though, that we probably agree on him.
- Ken PaganBeen a while since I commented and for no other reason than I had a 2.5 week trip away without a laptop or cell – loved it.
Your right about the LLWS games Mike. I just came back from visiting an old baseball buddy in PA and we took in 4 games. Not my first trip to see these kids play and if you have never been there, it is well worth the trip just to see the ball parks alone!
Sorry, I just can’t buy the AL east theory as to not being able to get to the post season for the Jays.
The Jays from 2000 – 2008
76-84 Vs Boston
64-74 Vs the Yankees.
Not a whole lot to complain about over a nine year stretch!
You mentioned the Jays from 2006 – 2008 in one answer to a comment here Mike and how the Jays had good teams yet did not make the post season.
They sure did have good teams and proved it during that stretch of 3 seasons…..
30-24 Vs Boston!
25-29 Vs the Yankees!
Yes, the AL east is tough for sure – the toughest in MLB. However, I don’t buy it as an excuse for the Jays as they have done better than most other teams when it came to playing the Yankees and Red Sox.
With all due respect to Gibby and Cito. I see the Jays biggest problem over the last few years has been the lack of a truly MLB experienced manager! They have had the horses to win, and their record over the last few years in the AL east against the two top teams has been just fine.
Nice to be back – lots of reading to catch up on with your blog! Thank you.
MW: Nice to have you back, although you’re wrong. And Cito is a truly MLB experienced manager, isn’t he? Is it even possible to argue otherwise?
- Bob (from Burlington)MW: 2010 – how could he be worse than he’s been this year?
(1) During the off-season, Wells tries to fix his garage door, falls off his ladder and cracks a vertebra.
(2) During the off-season Wells decides he is going to try and improve his batting (which I think would be a great idea). But unfortunately the ‘expert’ he employs gives him the wrong advice and his swing is now completely ruined and has more holes than a piece of Jarlsberg and will take a long time to retrieve.
(3) First day of spring training Wells runs down the line and tweaks his hamstring again. This time it really doesn’t come back at all. So his running game is gone.
However, seriously, Wells could come around. He’s young enough and athletic enough. The last couple of years could have been an aberration. Which is why a while back I advocated keeping Wells over Rios even though Rios had more natural talent. Wells has more…I don’t know the right word, possibly ‘character’…than Rios.
However it’s also possible that the last two years are the start of a long slide into mediocrity. I guess we’ll see next season.
As for Ruiz, I understand he’s not a ready-for-prime-time dh. But I hope he makes the team as a bench player next year. I think his performance at Triple A and here has earned him that.
MW: Ruiz isn’t a great candidate to be a bench guy – he’s not fast and doesn’t play a position. As far as Wells goes, what exactly did he do wrong last year, other than get hurt?
- isabella reyesI guess I was using RBIs because it’s a function of run production, where as runs scored could be a function of an error, wild pitch, or double play ball and I didn’t think it was really fair to count. I was wrong anyway, 8 runs and RBIs in the 8th inning, 0 runs/RBIs in the 9th inning and beyong.
MW: But don’t you want to know how many runs they scored?
- TimWow, an argument I agree with MW on. Moreover, I actually have to compliment him on the level of tact he showed in addressing the reader. I think I better check the temperature in hell.
Vinny, the notion that the Jays wouldn’t have made the playoffs in the AL Central previously based on their record (or that the Rays wouldn’t have done it this season) is ridiculous!
Playing in the AL East is not like playing in other divisions. It penalizes us in two ways, only one of which can be quantified. We are penalized directly through the competition, which you can account for by our record. But we are also penalized by the divisional games taxing us for the next series.
So even if you have a winning record against the Yanks and Sox you’ve likely taxed your bullpen in those games, you’ve likely played all your starters, and you’ve likely pitched the Halladay’s on short rest.
Now we have to go play the Indians (for example), we have to run Scott Richmond 8 innings or pitch our C relievers, we don’t have Halladay, and we have to rest the Scott Rolen’s of the world.
Conversely, say the Indians come in having played the Royals. They’ve saved their best starters, they bring their aces, and their bullpen is fine.
Just another example of competitive imbalance in the AL East.
MW, any truth to this notion that the Jays had the option of being in the AL Central (or for that matter the NL) when the realignment took place? Not sure where I read that (may have been on here)
MW: I don’t know how true or not that notion is, though there’s been a story that the Jays could have been in the Central instead of the Tigers or Indians but chose the East. I’ve said this before – if that’s true, then that’s the worst decision in franchise history.
- DylanHi Mike
On the subject of JP. He is a good GM, but not a brilliant one. What the Jays need is someone who can spot talent, crafty, gutsy and a real problem solver. JP can spot talent, I give him that. Crafty is needed when you want to put together packages for trades or working out a contract. You are a salesperson, selling your goods to the other GMs. Bosox’s Epstein does it well, look at how he landed Martinez. He managed to pry an all-star from the Indians without costing an arm and a leg. the Jays sure could have used him, long term. Guts are needed when you pull the big trade such as the one Gillick made when he landed Alomar and Carter for Fernandez and McGriff. Gillick had a good team but he wanted one better to go over the hump.
You also need to be able to solve problems relatively quickly. Look at Brian Coangelo. He is not waiting a few years to see how the team’s talent develop nor does he have excuses why his team is not winning by citing injury woes. When he sees a weakness, he tries to fix it. Sometimes it doesn’t work, but that is OK by me. At least I see that he is trying. I just think JP sits on his hands too much and try to do things on the cheap – the Wilkerson, Mench route.
Especially in the AL East, your GM need to be brilliant – just as smart or smarter than Cashman and Epstein to compete.
Question – who do you think the Jays will target to sign in the off season. (I know you have your wish list)?
MW: Gillick made that gusty deal in the 13th year of his tenure as general manager, and as far Colangelo, I understand your point, but I know how much I buy the “at least he’s trying” thing. Remember, last summer at this time Colangelo said the team he had was the best he’d ever assembled in Toronto. Ricciardi tries to do things on the cheap because that’s the hand he was dealt. I don’t know who they’ll target in the off-season, it depends on how much payroll ownership gives them.
- francismichael,
you made a point i noticed well worth commenting on again. that whole thing about how if the rays don’t somehow find a way to repeat again this yr. that it just clearly illustrates the fact of how tough it truly is to win in this excruciatingly difficult a.l. east.
so very true my friend.
people observing this game, commenting that hanging in tough as they are & finishing 3rd is actually something more complete than what the jays did the last few yrs. is total bunk to my mind.
cause’ you know what, 3rd is 3rd no matter how you slice that one i’m afraid.
but more importantly, for the people out there that rally against the notion that making the playoffs in the a.l. east is not a truly justifiable excuse… get the “collective” needle out of your arms would you please?
i mean seriously. look at this rays team. that is one very, very good baseball team. got everything it seems this yr. like last & they look like they’re going to finish 3rd. so many ball fans in this market would salivate about the prospects of having that team playing in the rogers centre & they’re going to likely finish 3rd. and “perhaps” they’ll make an incredible run down the stretch & squeeze themselves into the 2nd slot. and that would be impressive too in the grand scheme of things really. and “maybe” a wildcard spot with that rally but still 2nd.
tough division……
MW: And the thing is, so many people who for years and years said, like you did, that 3rd is 3rd no matter how you get there, are a lot of the people who are arguing the whole “Rays prove you can win in the East” thing.
- darrell bishopComment number 41 Renegade said not pinch-hitting for Millar will give him confidence for next year.
What are you talking about? Millar will not be here next year of the Jays have bigger problems than i thought.
MW: That was sarcasm.
- Robertmichael,
btw, re: my earlier post #16
” a (as we speak) down & out halladay” you asked, “seriously?”
no actually, just an expression i suppose that overstates doc’s current plight on the mound is all.
but the ball is now in your court my friend….
i paraphrase as i don’t know how to copy & paste apparently.
your response asking if this current poor play by the jays down the stretch is in fact not better to watch than watching them win games & play well as they did in the last few seasons previous when the games don’t seem to matter.
so i ask you in turn, “seriously?”
MW: I never said it was better to watch, but no, I wasn’t being serious. It was a pre-emptive shot at those who have whined that the Jays only turn it on late, when they’re out of it.
- darrell bishopALT: Love your statement about the Little League game vs. Jays games. Personally, the only benefit that the awful Jays bring is the extra time I have to do other things around the house– I stoped watching/listening to Jays baseball.
MW: And yet, you’re still here. Thanks for that, I guess.
The blog is quite interesting and educational! I would not miss the blog for anything!
MW: Glad to hear it!
- ALTJust over 15,000 people showed up for the game last night..Not good..I’m wondering what management might be thinking about that..
From a financial point of view, they must be thankful they play in the AL East..Its the only time people show up to watch them..They average about 30,000 per game against the Red Sox and the Yankees..
With Halladay on the mound, the attendance is up almost 13%..Especially when he faces New York or Boston..Not sure how much coin this amounts to but its significant enough to take notice..
If they trade Halladay in 2010 then why on earth would they increase payroll?..Trade your ace for young guys and increase payroll??..How does that make sense?
If Halladay stays until 2011..(I think he should be traded) Why would Jays management increase payroll to 100 mil in 2010? What about 2011 and beyond?..Are there that many good players out there willing to sign one year deals?..I don’t think so..This type of strategy rarely works..
They need to pick a way to do business and stick with it..Become a younger team and take your lumps for a few years and build toward something..They already have some great young talent now..Hill, Lind, Romero and Snider..It won’t take 10 years to contend like the Rays..If attendance won’t go down that much then why not?..
Thats why Beeston and Riccardi must go..They need a new strategy..These two don’t get it..
MW: I think they both get it, and I do think that for another winter or two, one-year contracts such as the one Bobby Abreu signed will be abundant. If they up the payroll, they don’t trade Halladay.
- ray bmichael,
just one more.
i see b. penny is being released from beantown.
what do you think? a reclamation project worth investigating with our current pitching coach?
penny used to pitch for arnsberg in fla. correct?
i’m thinking he might possibly be licking his chops at getting penny under his command again.
he’s only 31 i think. worth a shot or are the best days definitely behind this particular hurler in your humble estimation?
MW: Worth a shot for the major-league minimum, but he’s a free agent after the season.
- darrell bishopMike,
Was digging around for some stats. Found this:
Vernon has a .276 BABIP which suggests a bit of unluckiness in terms of finding too many gloves this season. Similarly Grady Sizemore’s BABIP is .277 which is contributing to his rough season by Grady Sizemore standards.
MW: Most guys’ BABIP will be around .300, so there you go. Wells is having a terrible season against lefties, which is the main cause of his awfulicity this season. By the way, are there two of you?
- ScottMike – I know you like to talk about the strange occurrences in ball games so I wonder if you remember a Gabe Kapler incident years ago. I was at a game here when he played for the Red Sox – I’m thiniking it was 4-5 years ago.
Gabe hit a home run and had to be pulled for a pinch runner. Never seen that before! As he was rounding 2nd he twisted his knee and went down in a heap. He had to be taken off the field in a stretcher, and the Sox manager had to put in a pinch runner to complete the trot. I wonder if Gabe tiptoed around 2nd last night.
It was the most weird thing I saw since Winfield killed the seagull.
The coolest thing remains – Scutaro stealing 2nd on a walk.
MW: Kapler didn’t twist his knee, his achilles tendon exploded. I remember it well.
- RezHey, Mike Griffin is right about Toronto Blue Jays roster (starting 9, 5 starters and closer) will be on Opening Day 2010?
C-J.P. Arencibia
1B-Adam Lind
2B-Aaron Hill
3B-Chone Figgins
SS-Brandon Wood
LF-Edwin Encarnacion
CF-Vernon Wells; RF-Travis Snider
DH-Randy Ruiz
SP’s: Joe Saunders; Shaun Marcum; Ricky Romero; Brett Cecil; Scott Richmond.
Closer-Jason Frasor.
*And is that the best the Jays could do? With a pay roll 80-90 million?
MW: Do you mean “Is Griffin right”? No, I don’t think he is.
- Raps FanHey Mike
I was just reading a Jim Callis chat and he stated that Paxton didn’t sign with the Jays because he wanted a minimum of 1.35 million, and the Jays wouldn’t go over 1 million. Have you heard this from your sources ?
If that is the case, why select the guy in the first place when you know he would require over slot money because he dropped in the draft? Callis says Paxton will easily get over 1.35 mil in next years draft based on his talant. JP lets a guy with huge upside walk over $350000? Ridiculous. This is the type of stuff that drives me crazy as a fan. JP signs a guy like Eckstein at 5 million/ season and he ends up on the bench, and then tells Paxton to stuff it over $350000? Horrible (if thats true)
MW: There’s a big difference between your starting shortstop and a draft pick, but you really do have to wonder why the Jays let a couple of guys go over what seemed to be such a piddling amount of money. We’ll have to see into next year and the years after if this strategy pays off.
- RickHey Mike. I really have to take exception to belabouring the point that we are in the AL East. The Yankees with all their money haven’t won since 2000, and the Red Sox payroll isn’t all that higher than the Jays until we dumped Rolen and Rios. First the Yankees. In the last 4 years, when they were ripe for the picking due to brutal contracts, other teams have dismissed them quickly in the playoffs, first round tko’s. Then no playoffs last year. Now they are tougher, because the money they spent is actually for players who are good. But the Jays had 4 years to play an overrated team with no pitching, no bridge to Rivera, and an offense that was highly overrated. With the Yankees, the Jays had their chance. That door has been closed this year, and it shows. The Red Sox are paying Drew $14 million, Lugo $9 million, Dice K $9 million and Lowell $12.5 million and Penny $5 million. Two of these players aren’t there anymore. That’s 50 million out of $122 million being wasted. You could almost put Ortiz’s 13 million and Varitek’s $5 million in there too. Money, as we all know, does not buy championships. The Red Sox have Youkolis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Papelbon, and a very deep farm system that enabled them to trade for Victor Martinez, to thank for the success they have had this year. All homegrown players. And at this point, very cost effective. So to put the myth to bed, it wasn’t the money they spent on free agents that have made them so utterly impossible for the Jays to compete against. I bet Drew, Lugo, Penny, Dice K, and Lowell were put on Rios waivers too, and they were probably praying someone would take them. That’s 50 million wasted dollars. Now, throw in a Tampa team the last 2 years that has shown they can compete, and for the first time in JP’s tenure, you have a division that the Jays have no hope in competing against, and for the first time in a long time, their sparkling record against the AL east 17-34. In my opinion, the Jays are no worse than they were 2 years ago minus AJ, its just that for the first time in 8 years, their divison is the toughest its been in a long time.
MW: To say the Yankees haven’t won since 2000 has nothing to do with the argument. The Yankees have been in the playoffs EVERY YEAR since 1996 with the exception of last season. Your point about the Red Sox proves mine, since they can afford to throw out $23 million on Lugo, Penny and Dice-K and still have a great team. To say that Boston’s payroll isn’t much higher than the Jays (pre-Rolen and Rios departures) is just plain not true. The Red Sox Opening Day payroll was more than 50% higher than the Jays’ ($122M to $80M).
- daveHey Mike,
With regards to your discussion at the beginning of JaysTalk about the emergence of The Rays as a competitive ball club in the AL East:
What happens to the Rays in 4-5 years when many/most of their core group of players are no longer contract controllable, and therefore almost assuredly leave the team (more than a few, one can postulate, to division rivals with deep pockets)? Can that very shaky baseball market really survive another massive, 10-year overhaul of the entire organization?
I feel that many people who cite the Rays as an example of a team that can compete in the AL East without spending near or at the top of the league may come to a tough realization when a good number of last year’s AL Champs are playing for Boston and New York in the playoffs in 2014 and beyond.
I can’t imagine any true fan of the Blue Jays actively hoping for 10 consecutive 90+ loss seasons. That, quite frankly, would be absolutely crushing to watch…even if it came with the promise of a single playoff birth at the end of it all.
To give everybody a bit of perspective on just how bad those Rays teams were:
The 2009 Toronto Blue Jays, on pace to finish with 87 losses which would mark the second highest total since 1998 (the year the Rays entered the league) will still be 4 games better than the BEST Rays team before last year. (Think about how much fun those 106 loss ’02 Rays must have been to watch. Probably about as much fun as those 95 loss ’05 Rays, and those 99 loss ’03 Rays, and those 101 loss ’06, and on, and on and on…
MW: Berth, but you’re absolutely right.
- BrandenMike,
As bad as the Jays have looked recently, I think an argument could be made that the Jays might have made the playoffs in they played in the AL Central THIS YEAR. Here is that argument:
Out of the 162 games in a season, the Jays play
18 Interleague games (11% of total games played): currently 7/18 for a .388 Win %. Since they’ve completed Interleague play, the projection would be 7/18.
72 AL East games (44% of total games played): currently 17/51 for a. 333 Win %. They play another 21 games, and using the .333 Win %, their projection would be to win another 7, finishing at 24-48 vs. AL East.
38 AL Central games (24% of total games played): currently 19/30 for a .633 Win %. They play another 8 games, and using the .633 Win %, their projection would be to win another 5 games, finishing at 24-14 vs. AL Central
AL West games (21% of total games played): currently 15/26 for a .577 Win %. They play another 8 games, and using the .633 Win %, their projection would be to win another 5 games, finishing at 20-14 vs. AL Central.
Using this logic
Interleague: 7-11
AL East: 24-48
AL Central: 24-14
AL West: 20-14
The Jays will end up with 75 Wins (75-87)
Now, here’s the interesting part. Let’s pretend the Jays played in the AL Central. Instead of playing 44% of their games against the AL East and 24% of the games against the AL Central this year, it would likely be vice versa.
In that scenario, using the same Win % as above, we’d be looking at this:
Interleague: 7-11
AL East: 13-25
AL Central: 46-26
AL West: 20-14
The Jays would end up with 86 Wins (86-76). This is a winning percentage of .531. Currently, the Tigers lead the AL Central with a .532 winning percentage, and a projected record of, you guessed it, 86-76.
Of course, we never know how the Jays would have performed over a full schedule in the AL Central, but it is interesting to look at it that way.
MW: It is, but it isn’t. It doesn’t work that way, you can’t just say that because they did this, they would have done that.
- RMIs it my imagination, or does it seem like the Jays can’t do anything against the other teams’ relievers? They have no “fight” in them in late innings.
Steve
MW: It’s your imagination. They almost beat Mariano Rivera on Wednesday.
OK, after reading some of the comments here and listening to Rod Black’s comments on TSN, it’s no longer my imagination!!! The Jays ARE struggling in late innings…
MW: They are, but it’s not because of lack of “fight”.
- SteveHi Mike
Interesting discussion on astroturf and how it affect athletes’ longevity. I am surprised with all the money the Jays spend on athletes that they do not spend more on the home turf. More cushions etc etc…
A question for you – what about turning McGowan to a closer role? He sure has the velocity.
Francis
MW: He sure did. Does he still?
- francisbuck coats and angel sanchez seem to be putting together nice years offensively in las vegas.
1) Do you think they can be a useful back up CF and SS offensively and defensively?
2) do you have any guess or insight as to their “career potential”?
3) are they AAAAers? is ultimately what i am asking.
MW: 1 – Coats maybe, Sanchez has issues defensively. 2 – Nope. 3 – The Blue Jays seem to think so.
- jeremyMike,
In what way does holding batting gloves prevent broken fingers? How must you hold it ‘poroperly’?
MW: Holding onto your batting gloves prevents you from sliding headfirst and reaching out for the bag.
- TheSunkenZealotHey Mike, quick question. Darin Mastroianni, how do you think the Jays will play him. He’s showing very good improvement over the year, and his OBP is 130 points higher than his BA. His steal percentage is awesome (over 80%) over 78 attempts. He’s at AA right now, and will probably need at least one more year, which is perfect, because he could be a great piece going forward after the 2010 season. But if the Jays sign Jason Bay, who they need, then the outfield will be set over the course of his contract. An albatross plays Mastroianni’s natural position, and he is 24 this year, which means they cant realistically wait until the end of Wells’ contract. Moving Lind to 1B shouldnt be an option, due to Cooper and Loewen developing, but what else can the Jays do?
Cheers
PS this isnt actually a bad thing, other than of course Wells. Im certainly not complaining about too much depth.
MW: We’re still a ways away from having to worry about such things.
- Dave JHey Mike. The Blue Jays true payroll was 100 million. Backloaded contracts, which rogers just found out about, is why the Jays had the yard sale. Why spend so much money to be 4th. You are missing my point, the Yankees were not a very good team the past 4 years, and they made the playoff due to their once soft schedule of playing the Rays Orioles and Jays 57 times. Their lack of playoff success since 2000 proves this. You also missed my point on the Red Sox, it isn’t the money they spent on free agents, for that they want a do over, its the draft, you know, the one where we only signed 1 of our top 5 picks. There are dozens of examples of teams who spent the most money and had little success. This year, the Mets, Cubs, Astros, and Mariners are 100 million plus payrolls, no playoffs in sight. There is way more to building a winning franchise than spending money.Beeston said it right, he would never consider moving from the AL east, can you just imagine the attendance if the Jays did.
MW: How was the Jays’ true payroll $100 million? I didn’t miss your point at all – a lack of playoff success proves absolutely nothing. As for the Red Sox draft success, that has a lot to do with luck (Papelbon, Youkilis) and money spent on the draft.
- daveMW: The Yankees have been in the playoffs EVERY YEAR since 1996 with the exception of last season.
The Yankees have “actually” been in the playoffs every season since 1993 until 2008, assuming you count their first place finish in 1994 as a playoff appearance. I don’t know where you got “since 1996 from”.
MW: Yeah, I forgot about 1995. There were no playoffs in 1994.
- kitMW: They are a bad team this year, or at least, they have a very bad record, and that does explain some of the drop as the summer has progressed. But the attendance was down when they were the best team in the league, too.
You are right, Mike, but I think the fans in this city are smarter than they are often given credit for. By you at times, and by others. Their being the “best team in the league” was somewhat akin to crying wolf: people wanted proof and were skeptical. You yourself warned about premature parades. I am convinced, though, that if the Jays’ year had been going towards “meaningful games in September,” (as much as you hate the expression) the fans would have come. I am also convinced they WILL come if the Jays PROVE they are a contender. What I am not convinced of is that the organization which keeps you employed (I thank them for that!) will ever get off the ridiculous notion (at least, implicitly) that the Jays are a small or even a medium market team. I am not a Ricciardi fan, but in many ways it’s unfair and ridiculous that he has to be pilloried for his financial mistakes, i.e. Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, Alex Rios, et al. As if the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, etc. haven’t wasted millions on dreck over the years. (Carl Pavano, anyone?!) You are absolutely right about the vast difference in payrolls between Boston and Toronto, but, objectively (the way a smart Martian would analyze the situation), there is no excuse for it. And as long as Rogers sends the message — silently, through their budget decisions — that the Jays can’t compete with the Yankees, Red Sox and other markets SMALLER than Toronto, J.P. and his successors will be fighting with one hand tied behind their backs. Or, to use a baseball analogy, while the Yankees and Red Sox will continue to have a DH in their lineup, the Jays will insist on having their pitchers bat…
I suppose, if everything gets aligned just right, they could win/contend once in a blue moon, but to get to the original point, most fans understand consciously or intuitively the limited nature of Rogers’ budgetary commitment in the toughest (FINANCIALLY) division in all of professional sports. I know how you feel about the relationship between winning/contending and attendance, but in this city, esp. after 1983-1993, that’s the reality.
Alex
MW: I have to tell you, the only thing that’s in my head right now is – there are dumb Martians? To your point, you are exactly right about the way this team’s financials are treated, and like you said, there’s no reason for it. But the way most callers and commenters were handing the Jays a playoff spot in April and May, I don’t know about the “wait and see” skepticism affecting attendance.
- AlexMW: I have to tell you, the only thing that’s in my head right now is – there are dumb Martians? To your point, you are exactly right about the way this team’s financials are treated, and like you said, there’s no reason for it. But the way most callers and commenters were handing the Jays a playoff spot in April and May, I don’t know about the “wait and see” skepticism affecting attendance.
Good point. I should have said a “briefed” Martian.
As for “wait and see” thing, I don’t think it was quite that. (Putting aside those who call you and write here.) It’s just that I believe a clear and unequivocal (sorry for being redundant) signal must be sent that Jays are a contender. For example, being in first place in the AL East on August 29. Use whatever analogy you want — a tipping point, a critical mass, whatever — but you need something like that to get people back into the Skydome. Sorry, the Rogers Centre.
MW: I think, to affect attendance, that you need even more than that. It may be a playoff spot on September 15th, or an opportunity to clinch.
- Alexthat was one of the most pathetic slides I have ever seen. rios would have been proud. it was not a great block as you put it. the catcher was just standing there. snider is built like a fullback. there is no excuse for him to be sliding 5 feet away from the plate and trying to touch it with his toe. maybe he should watch of video of pete rose. he should have struck the fear of god into that catcher and plowed him over.
- vinnyHey Mike. Early opportunities notwithstanding, the Jays would have scored in the eighth had bautista sac bunted snider over to second. They had an opportunity like that last night too, and they didnt, even when mullininks was calling for it. Two games in a row a sac bunt would helped. Why doesnt Cito play like the rest of the league??
MW: Have you not been watching lately? How many sacrifice attempts have we seen – by the Jays and their opponents – over the past month or so that have actually worked? I’d say it’s around 20%. Anyway, I don’t think the bunt was in order with John McDonald on deck.
- Dave JMike,
Was the Kazmir trade to California a waiver deal. If so, why wouldn’t the Jays claim him
MW: It was either a waiver deal or Kazmir had passed through waivers earlier this month (the more likely scenario). The Jays didn’t claim him because he’s owed $25.5 million next year and the year after combined, he can’t stay healthy and he’s having a horrible year.
- DANNYIt is completely disingenuous to say that the rays have been bad for 10 years because of the al east. the real reason for them being bad was because of their low payroll not the yankees and sox. and if they go back to being bad if they lose upton crawford etc, it will be because of payroll not because of being in the al east. to keep using the rays as your proof of why the jays cant compete is misleading.
MW: I don’t believe I have ever heard anyone say that the Rays were awful for 10 years because they played in the A.L. East. They’d have been a joke pretty much anywhere. Nor do I use the Rays as proof of why no one can compete in the division.
- ajitHey Mike. How I got to the Jays 100 million dollar payroll is that Rios and Wells are on for 10 million total this year, while in 2010 they are on for 29 million and 2011 38 million. If they had left Rios and Rolen here for 2010, the Jays payroll commitments for 2010 would have been 84 million for 8 players. That’s 16 million left for 17 players. That’s why Rios was dumped for nothing. Love the gutsy move by the Rays trading Kazmir for 2 prospects, decisions like that are going to keep this team viable for years to come. I know JP has gone out on a limb as you say by signing free agents, but he hasn’t made a move like this in 8 years. Also, I just read major league baseball is changing the set up for the World Series. They are using a 7 game format with the winner being the team with the best run differential, because it wouldn’t be fair to win 3 games 12-0 and lose 4 heartbreakers 3-2. Obviously the team that won 4 games wasn’t the best team.
MW: Sigh.
- daveMike…During the broadcasts:
a) Where are you getting your data from to give us the quick and detailed up-to-date scores like you do so well?
b) I know the term is called feedback, but what are you actually hearing when you’re asking callers to turn their radios off?
c) A non-technical question…Just to clarify up front that I’m not quoting you Mike or anyone else because I don’t believe it was ever worded this way and quoting people directly is dangerous, but isn’t it too convenient to just say this is probably the record the Jays were supposed to have coming out of Florida (actually it’s worse) and it shouldn’t be a big jaw-dropper. That feeling has definitely been implied since the 27-14 start. That’s like a kind of slap to the fans who were getting excited (and rightly so) at the great start and we should’ve expected the great fall from grace? Kind of like an implied “I told you so” but not that strong. There’s got to be more explanation for the big drop.
MW: A – There are many great websites all over the internets that provide up-to-the-minute scores. B – The problem isn’t with me, it’s with the caller. When a caller has the radio on while they’re on the phone, they’re hearing the delayed-by-seven-seconds broadcast coming through their radio while they’re talking, and they get confused. C – Their record since the hot start has been brutal, plain and simple, but it’s not a slap to say that this is the team you were supposed to get. They just went about it in an odd way. I didn’t tell you so, though – I thought they’d be an 80-85 win team.
- chris m.Watching the game last night in Boston and Beckett hits Marco Scutaro in the head with a 93 MPH fastball.
If I’m not mistaken this jerk was suspended for throwing at or near Bobby Abreu’s head.
Nothing from the umpire last night and NO retaliation from the Jay’s pitching staff.Nothing. As for Mr. Gaston, not a remark.
However, he appeared to give someone a dirty look.
Wonderful.
Not being able to read the mind of this headhunter, one can’t really know if it was a deliberate attempt to hit Scutaro but if it walks like a duck, etc….What if Beckett had thrown at Hill….
As for Richmond and Tallet they did nothing.Not even close. Disgusting.
This certainly sends some kind of message, particularly to the other team and, more importantly, to the players on the Jays.
Support the Jays? Not with this lack of fire from this pitching staff.
Just gave away my tickets for the next home stand because I can’t stand it anymore…..
MW: Cito said that the dugouts were warned, so they Jays “couldn’t do anything about it”, but that he doesn’t like Beckett.
- DougI justed wanted know if your familar with fangraphs.com and your opinion. what do you think of the formula and the flaws in those stats? Not sure if you talked about this before.
keep up the good work!
MW: I haven’t delved as deeply into fangraphs as I’d like to yet.
- VjeyMike,
I’ve been very impressed with the Rays GM Andrew Friedman over the past couple of years. Needless to say, he’s transformed what was a disastrously run organization into a strong contender. He’s made a few aggressive trades (which have worked out in his favour) and on top of that, he also traded a few players who have reputations as bad apples, which must have done wonders for team chemistry.
When the Rays were mentioned as contenders in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, the pundits made it clear that they would have to trade Scott Kazmir first to clear the necessary payroll to take on his contract. Now that they’ve traded Kazmir, I wouldn’t be surprised if Friedman makes a run at Halladay.
Of course, that if they STILL need to clear payroll, they have an up-and-coming outfield prospect in Desmond Jennings who can easily take Carl Crawford’s place if he’s dumped for salary room.
My theory is that at the trade deadline, Ricciardi made a trade proposal to the Rays which they are now ready to accept. In the off-season, maybe the Jays and the Rays will work something.
To me, the Rays are the ideal trade partner for the Jays because of the depth of their system. As a Jays GM, I would take a package of Wade Davis, Tim Beckham, and Jeremy Hellickson for Halladay in a flash. To me, it seems like a better deal than anything we would have been getting from the Phillies….
I’d be interested to know your thoughts on the matter.
MW: I wonder if the Rays will still be interested in Halladay in the off-season. They’re going to run into financial issues with Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford after 2010, so maybe they’ll try to gear up for a big run. If the Jays don’t raise payroll, they’ll shop Halladay in the off-season, and there’s no reason not to send him to Tampa. It’s a deal Halladay would accept, for sure.
- NathanMike I find that you more than any other braodcaster have complained about this division so much to the point where it is a cruch.
The misfortunes of the Jays have little or nothing to do with the division but rather have a lot to do with things like, Scoring runs in late innings, unable to hit with runners in scoring position, not playing samll ball, from an organizational standpoint, keeping well developed guys in the farm to long, sticking with struggling bats too long, injuries have played a part, JP has failed to pull off big important trades at deadlines etc
You know as well as anybody that the Yankees are in a city that is two times the size of Toronto and the people and businesses of New York and the surrounding area’s love their New York teams and invest very much in them. These are the facts. We cannot say that it is not fair for Yankees and Boston to spend when they have invested time and money to bring a high level of entertainment to their city’s. I can very much understand that each major league sport team competes with the other major league sports teams in the city. Yankees certainly do not want to loose sports fans to the Giants, Rangers or the Knicks, As a business I wouldn’t either.
Boston same thing New England patroits play in america’s most beloved sport and have won superbowls and the Celtics relized they could not win or keep up without spending the cash, therefore the Red Sox has to pony up some money of their own to compete in their big market, and they have.
However with the Red Sox, I must give Boston Credit unlike you do for the way they have drafted. You might ridiculously call it luck, I call it good scouting, They have developed some of the games best in Johnathan Papalbon, Kevin Youkolis, Jacoby Ellsbury and John Lester and have made great trades brining in Mike Lowell with Josh Beckett and capitalizing on Big papi when Minisota didn’t want him.
And finally, Mike why are you not telling fans the truth about Tampa’s success. You are making it seem as though Tampa’s success is directly related to the losing seasons when in fact it really has not much to do with it. Here are some FYI’s.
In 2006 Tampa Bay Rays were under new ownership which led to alot of changes in the front office and below
Tampa’s Key contributor Carl Crawford was drafted 52nd overall,
BJ Upron has had no where although being drafted second overall has had nowhere near the impact the organization has expected.
Delmon Young a very troubled outfeilder was moved in a deal that brought in Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett two big peices,
Scott Kazmir another Big pitching component was brought in through a trade with the mets.
JP Howell effective closer was brought in through a trade with Kansas City,
Zobrist was brought over from Baltimore for Aubrey Huff another well developed peice
Dionne Navorro was Brought over in a trade with Los Angeles Dodgers
Carlos Pena was invited to Trainig camp.
Dan Wheeler an effective setup man brought over in a trade for Ty Wiggington
Greg Zaun a great vetran catcher was brought in after the non waiver deadline.
The list of Great signings and trades go on.
Only two players above has come from the multiple losing seasons with the Devil Rays. One is impactful the other has underachieved not really contributing to the success of the Rays.
Mike stop trying to use Tampa’s losing seasons and high drafting as reasons for their success to overshadow these brilliant moves by the new owners. New ownership brought a new vision.
MW: There’s no question that the Rays have made some moves that have worked out terrifically, no question. But the reason they were able to make a lot of those moves was because they were awful and were perennial sellers at the deadline. They moved Young – who they had drafted first overall – for Garza and Bartlett. Carlos Pena didn’t make their team out of spring training in ’07, they would rather have had Greg Norton, but Norton got hurt and Pena didn’t waste what might have been his last opportunity. They were able to pick up Zobrist (who has had FAR more of an impact than anyone could have guessed), Kazmir, Wheeler and Navarro in white-flag deadline deals. They turned Howell into a reliever – a move that worked out beautifully – after he’d spent a couple of years getting his head handed to him as a starter. The Rays deserve credit for building a very good team, it’s true, but don’t ignore the horseshoe.
- Thomasmike, you have routinely said that only 1 team has made the playoffs over the past 10 yrs other than the sox and yanks as your proof as to why the jays cant compete in the al east. therefore you are using the rays and orioles as your proof. but now you are saying that you never used the rays as proof and that they would be bad regardless. so that invalidates your first statement. if they were bad you wouldn’t expect them to make the playoffs.
MW: That’s not really a logical “if….then” – the A.L. East is the only division in baseball to be almost completely dominated by two teams over the past 11 years. The Rays were awful, and they’d have been awful anywhere, but how does that invalidate the Yankee/Red Sox conundrum?
- ajitMW: The Rays were awful, and they’d have been awful anywhere, but how does that invalidate the Yankee/Red Sox conundrum?
If the Jays don’t solve the ‘Yankee/Red Sox conundrum’ they may as well move out of town. Baltimore doesn’t have an NBA franchise or an NHL franchise. Does it have an NFL team? The Rays actually have a good team that could contend for a couple of years, and they have a hockey team as well! For now.. But Toronto has the Raptors and the Leafs. As you’ve so often pointed out, this is Hockey Central. Toronto simply isn’t interested enough in baseball to sustain a perennial loser. There are other local teams to cheer for in other sports.
At this point Rogers must make more convincing noises than ‘of course it’s nice to have the Blue Jays…’ I, for one, would like to know what they have in their nasty little pocketses. Are they going to keep the team? Are they going to fund the team? Are they going to support the team?
MW: I thought you didn’t think they should ever say anything publically.
- isabella reyesWells is a broken record…………when a big hit is needed, he does not produce. Ninth inning rally and he pops up on the first pitch, to the catcher. His nonchalant walk back to the bench is sickening. After Sept call-ups, why not bench him for the rest of the season. Put Inglett or anybody in. Something has to be done to make wells accountable for his pathetic inability to improve his mediocrity
MW: What would you have preferred to see Wells do? Impale himself on his bat?
- Lex M.It’s almost as though Fate has a horribly dark sense of humour, and wants you to answer questions all night long about why Wells can’t hit in the clutch, and why Millar is even in the lineup. My condolences in advance for what is likely to be a frustrating JaysTalk. Be strong Mike.
MW: Why thank you.
- BrandenMW: What would you have preferred to see Wells do? Impale himself on his bat?
I believe that would invalidate his contract as it would be self-inflicted. What a brilliant idea!
MW: But it would have happened on the field, so workers’ comp would cover it, right?
- Lex M.MW: That’s not really a logical “if….then” – the A.L. East is the only division in baseball to be almost completely dominated by two teams over the past 11 years. The Rays were awful, and they’d have been awful anywhere, but how does that invalidate the Yankee/Red Sox conundrum?
you are right, the yanks and sox have been good, but that does not mean that another legitimate good team would not be able to compete. the fact is we have not any other legitimate good teams to prove this other than the rays last year which is in itself valid proof that it can be done. the orioles are a poorly run team so you wouldnt expect them to win
so that leaves only the jays as your argument that you cant compete in the east right? and how many years of the past 10 have the jays been actually good enough to win 90+ games?
MW: So you’re saying that the only good team in the AL East since 1997 other than the Yanks and Red Sox were the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays?
- ajitmike, you called it absurd when a caller said 90 losses for this team. well if they go 4-6 rest of way this will surpass 90 losses.
MW: If they go 4-6 the rest of the way, they’ll wind up 62-75.
- samuelMW: So you’re saying that the only good team in the AL East since 1997 other than the Yanks and Red Sox were the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays?
I’m asking you! How many legit playoff teams were there?
MW: I don’t know. I certainly thought the Jays had a legit playoff team probably four or five times since then. The Orioles probably thought they could be good at least a couple of times.
- ajitRandom note: five of Halladay’s eleven starts since coming off the DL have been against Tampa Bay. Maybe the seven earned last time out might not be wholly unrelated to that?
Also: Halladay has given up unearned runs in five straight starts and six of seven. That’s pretty surprising.
MW: Matt Garza actually said in an interview last week that the Rays “know how to beat” Halladay.
- Cincinnatus C.Mike, re Post #92 — what the heck are “pocketses”?
MW: He was trying to be funny.
- Norm“MW: Cito said that the dugouts were warned, so the Jays “couldn’t do anything about it”, but that he doesn’t like Beckett.”
Well,Gaston doesn’t like Beckett..That really should make the Blue Jay’s players feel a whole lot better… As for not being able to “do anything” that’s a crock and Gaston knows it.
I read an article regarding this very same subject (about hitting batters) only it’s about Ozzie Guillen of the White Sox…
“Guillen also warned, if he suspects a pitcher intentionally throwing at one of his players expect multiple retaliation.
“If I see someone hit my player, and I know they hit him on purpose it’s two guys going down. I don’t care if I get suspended,” Guillen said. “I rather have me suspended for two games than have my players on the DL for 30 days.”
That’s a manager who will do what is necessary to protect his players..NOT like Cito Gaston who makes whatever excuse is available at the time.
Did he do ANYTHING about the headhunting by Beckett? Did he make any statement other then the noted remark?
Must have been a proud moment for Cito…..
MW: Guillen is a manager who says a lot of things, but how many guys have the White Sox been decking on a regular basis since then? I don’t like the idea of “the benches were warned, so we can’t do anything”, either.
- DougHi Mike
Where is The Jays Talk & your blog from last nite & Friday nite?
I need my morning fix!!!!
MW: Sorry – I’ll be playing catch-up this afternoon.
- jeffMike:
just wanted to thank you for this blog. I get frustrated by a lot of the comments (some repeated ad infinitum, others just dumb, and many answered elsewhere). Personally, I doubt I would be able to put up with it.
But regularly there is a nugget of info/wisdom/whatever. That’s what I appreciate.
Steve
MW: I try, though I’m finding myself having less time because of the new noon show. Once Baseball Today is finished, I’ll definitely be back here on a far more regular basis.
- SteveMW: I thought you didn’t think they should ever say anything publically.
Now see, Mike, that was what we call in the business ‘deliberate misrepresentation’. What I want is for Rogers to make a public statement of affirmation beyond their lukewarm ‘of course we’ll always like the Blue Jays’ mantra. If they are going to increase payroll, as you believe, then I’d like that confirmed from head office.
That is a world away from what I want from the team GM. Which is to keep his big mouth shut while dealing with possibly sensitive issues like trades, and refrain from trashing other players and otherwise shooting from the lip whenever he gets next to a mic or a print journalist’s tape recorder.
MW: You of all people should know that Rogers is doing exactly what corporation ownership of a pro sports franchise always does, and should do. Their primary goal is to keep their shareholders happy, regardless of what the rest of us want. That means show support, but no grand proclamations that will make people think that there’s a chance you might lose money.
- isabella reyesHi Mike.
I’m going to ask you a different question… not Blue Jays related.
My son’s favourite sport is baseball (YESSS!!!), and he is really good at pitching, at the age of 10. What type of pitches do you recommend him experimenting? And how many pitches do you recommend him throwing per game?
MW: I recommend him throwing a fastball, maybe a change-up and NOTHING ELSE. No curveballs, no sliders, no cutters, no nothing. A kid shouldn’t throw a breaking ball until at least the age of 14, and maybe not even 16. Pitches per game? I have no idea, but a kid should throw. Just throw, throw and throw – that’s how you build up a good, strong healthy arm.
- TonyThe way this season is winding down, it is starting to remind me of 1995 when the Blue Jays stood at 40-49 in early August only to go 16-39 the rest of the way (one of the worst stretches in Blue Jays history, and that team had Olerud, Carter, Molitor, Alomar and White). The schedule is not helping much either. It seems every series is against a club fighting for a playoff birth.
I know you’re probably tired of hearing about it, but Alex Rios (who is not starting today) is a robust 10 for 53 with one home run and three rbi’s since joining the Sox.
MW: I didn’t expect Rios to rebound and be great as soon as he got to Chicago. In fact, I wouldn’t say that I expected Rios to be great in Chicago, period – just that I figure there will be at least a couple of years in the next five when he performs as he did in his all-star seasons here. And it’s BERTH.
- Jim in OhioSorry, but the frustration has got the best of me. This team is beyond belief….now a pitcher comes out of retirement and shuts them down, with their ‘ace’ on the mound. It would be laughable if it weren’t so pathetic. Do you still think that they are just one or two players away?? Incrediblie!!!!
MW: It is incrediblie.
- Althink of how much better it would be if players earned their money based on their current stats not what they did in the past or their “potential” . for example if they are having a terrible season their pay would reflect that. We can only dream I suppose
MW: It’ll never happen.
- dave_12This may not be a truly bad team, but it knows how to do an incredible impression of one.
And don’t the Jays always have trouble against Byrd?
MW: Last year, Byrd was 2-2, 4.86 against the Jays.
- Greg WI’m sitting here watching the movie Little Big League thinking that 12 year old fictional GM could do better than JP has done for us. Be a fan of his or not, you cant deny the fact he has not gotten the job done. Probably the worst GM in the league in evaluating and proposing trades. The whole Halladay affair, although alreay beaten like a dead horse, was a laughing stock for our team and equivelant to the skills of a fantasy league manager sitting at the bar. JP has to go, we are not even headed in the right direction with him anymore. And Cito can go with him, I love him, an would take him over Gibby any day, but the novelty seems to have worn off. Players dont seem overly enthused to go out and win one for Cito anymore. Its time for a fresh start with the Jays.
MW: Sigh.
- Travis NetterfieldHello Mike…knowing that you were the play by play guy of thew old Welland Pirates and myself being from Thorold Ill have you know I had a tough decision to make on Wednesday….while finishing dinner at Alice Fazoolis the decision was Jays game or go home…I decided to go home…I realized as long as Cito mis-manages this ball team Iam not going to attend any games…on the bright side Iam glad that JP Arencibia and Tim Collins are having outstanding seasons in the minors..
- Mark from Thorold