56 Responses to “The Jays Don’t Hit Late”

1. 1.
   August 24th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
   

   A few questions

   1) Why is it that the Las Vegas 51s league, the PCL is considered “hitter friendly” as it is often called.

   2) Halladay traditionally gets stronger each time through the batting order. Could you find out what his ERA is in the first 3 innings, and then his ERA in innings 4 – 6, and then 7 – 9 if its not to much trouble?

   3) I heard the other day on Jays Talk about the idea of changing to a balanced schedule. That same day i came across this:

   http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/notebook?page=bbtn

   I just wanted to hear your thoughts on this proposed solution.

   Oh and while i don’t love the production that has come from Wells this year I do think that this is rock bottom for him. With his ability i see it hard for him to do any worse than what he is doing right now. So as the old saying goes the only place he can go is up.

   MW: 1 – Altitude and ballparks. 2 – No, I can’t, but I can tell you this: In innings 1-3, Halladay’s opposition is hitting .272/.308/.383, in innings 4-6 it’s .218/ .234/.324, and in innings 7-9 they hit .325/.342/.513. 3 – Those who use the link have to go back to the August 23rd story. It’s interesting. I don’t know if I like the idea of getting rid of the leagues and having everyone play everyone else just for just two series a season. I’d prefer to keep the leagues separate and figure something out. Interesting how Berthiaume only mentioned the Orioles as being up against it because of the schedule.

   - Richard
2. 2.
   August 24th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
   

   Mike – what day do you estimate will be Roy’s next start ? I’m thinking it will be a rematch vs Buckholtz on Sunday. (I’ll be at Fenway so my fingers are crossed).

   I was coaching tonight so it was 6-6 by the time I listened in. When I watched the RSN highlights after the game I saw something that really struck me about Roy. He was caught on camera glaring towards third and clearly muttering his frustration at Bautista/Scutaro as he walked off the filed.

   Sure he was nickle-and-dimed in that inning and it would be hard not to express some frustration. I just think Roy is showing clear signs he is not happy with the defence behind him and it is wearing on him.

   The Jays will have to fix the defence (ie. get Figgins in the riggin) to keep Doc pumped about staying here for 2010.

   MW: They’ll have to fix the defense on a couple of fronts, not just third base. The great defense has had a lot to do with why the pitching has been so good the last couple of years. Halladay’s next start will indeed be on Sunday.

   - Rez
3. 3.
   August 25th, 2009 at 12:00 am
   

   Hi Mike,

   Doc Halladay has certainly not been as sharp lately and I have a theory. Even though Doc did not actually come out and say he wanted to leave Toronto, I think he still had high hopes of perhaps getting dealt to a contender. The fact that the deal never materialized was a letdown for him. I think in the back of his mind, he may have been expecting a deal and that got him excited at the prospect of picthing into October. Asd a result of the letdown, his mind may not be fully here. Do you think I have a valid point or is this far fetched?

   MW: It’s not far fetched, but I don’t buy it completely. It’s fair to say that Halladay likely did expect to be traded and was likely disappointed not to have been dealt after things got as far down the road as they did. But I don’t think he’s thinking about that when he goes to the mound.

   - Ian from Whitby
4. 4.
   August 25th, 2009 at 12:05 am
   

   Hello Mike,
   Big fan of yours and really like the stuff you are doing with baseball prospectus. Had something on my mind and wondering whether you had any insight. I know we cannot say a hitter is clutch, but would it be possible to establish a link between a hitter and the quality of the opposing pitching. For instance can we say hitter x, or hitters with similiar attributes to player x, do well against below average pitching and not so well against above average pitching and the inverse, do certain hitters do well against above average pitching and not so well (or not as well as one would think) against average pitching. For whatever reason, Lyle Overbey comes to mind. He seems to feast on inferior pitching and not do much against better pitchers yet still shows decent numbers due to the lack of better pitchers in the league. If there was some sort of relation here, not necessarily with Lyle as I`m sure my anecdote will be proven incorrect, would this not be a viable way to judge a player`s expected playoff performance, where above average pitching is generally the norm.

   MW: The only distinction I’ve seen researched has been how hitters perform against power pitchers as opposed to finesse guys (Overbay has a .667 OPS against power pitchers and a 1.035 OPS against finesse pitchers, by the way). It’d be an interesting study, though.

   - IK
5. 5.
   August 25th, 2009 at 12:19 am
   

   I seem to recall the hitting being like that a lot last year. Maybe I’ll pop over to baseballreference.com to check it out, but more than once last season I thought that, after about the third or fourth inning, that was pretty much it for the bats. Whatever they had scored to that point had to be enough. They’re back to that now; even today, when they hit a homerun, get a bunch of hits and score seven, it all came in the first 3-4 innings. Then bupkus.

   I’m not that concerned about Halladay. He didn’t exactly pitch well, but it wasn’t as bad as the final line. It was a whole lot of blips and bloops and wonky defense early on. He’s probably going through a bit of a dead arm period, and his career monthly splits show that August has always been tough. His Septembers have been terrific, though. So it’s probably just that time of year, coupled with a general feeling of malaise around the club now. His stuff didn’t look too bad tonight, and he missed some bats and struck out eight, so as I said I think he’s basically fine.

   I think Travis Snider is getting very close to the point where he’ll be terrorizing just about every RHP he faces. He still looks lost against lefties, but improvement will come, I’m sure. You almost get the feeling watching his at bats that he’s going to explode onto a different level very soon.

   - Flaming Moe
6. 6.
   August 25th, 2009 at 12:30 am
   

   Hello Mr.Wilner

   I used Carlson’s ERA to prove his ineffectiveness because he’s only had 1 good year. Why does he deserve to pitch in the bullpen when he’s been one of the most used relievers with an ERA of 5? On the other hand, Camp is much older than Carlson. Whats wrong with sending them down to the minors to begin next season and bringing in a stronger relief pitcher?

   Sorry about what I projected of Nady. I was following him last year while he was with Pittsburgh and his average was something like .330 before he was traded to the Yanks. I just thought he posted stats like that during his past but I guess I was wrong.

   Do you think the Jays can trade for Kurt Suzuki? He is a good hitting catcher with average speed.

   Who should be the Cy young in the NL if you were to award it today? My vote goes to Carpenter.

   MW: Again you’re pointing to Carlson’s ERA! If the team can improve on the relievers it has, that’s fine by me, but I don’t have a problem with bringing Carlson and Camp back next year. I don’t think Suzuki is going to be made available in the off-season, and I’ll go with Tim Lincecum, for reasons illustrated above.

   - UltimateBLUEJAYSfan
7. 7.
   August 25th, 2009 at 1:08 am
   

   Mike

   It is simply not true what you said to the caller that this is the first time in a bunch of years that the team has not been good. Last year this team could not hit, the year befor you cried about injuries. our catchers could not throw runners out, pitchers did a poor job holding rnners on, we did not steal bases. Mike I don’t call that signs of a good team.

   Secondly I also heard you say to a caller that JP does not call the shots on the payroll.
   Mike first of all it was JP that vowed to ownership in the first place that he can make this team a contender on a limited payroll yet he knew that he was coming into the AL East, also in 2008 JP was given a hundred milion dollar payroll he choose to allocate a big chunck to Vernon Wells Frank Thomas, Scott Rolen and Alex Rios, The majority of these guys aren’t even here.
   Don’t blame ownership for the way money is allocated.

   The Marlins are in a division with one of the biggest markets in baseball and play year to year on a very limited payroll yet they can play meaning ful games in september and competed for a wild card. What I don’t understand is, you say that it does not matter what avenue
   a team takes to get into the playoff(recognizing that there is a wildcard) Yet you keep telling callers that jays play in the toughest division. Mike there is simply no excuse for jays not even coming close to playing meaniful games in september. They haven’t even been close in a wildcard race. Quite simply that has nothing to do with ownership.

   MW: It’s actually very true that this is the first time in a bunch of years that the Jays have not been good. Last year, the Jays were second in the league in run differential, with the best pitching in the majors, and in 2007 were second in the league in pitching and had a winning record in the toughest division in sports. There is no argument to be made that the Blue Jays weren’t a good team in 2007 and 2008. None. Not a great team? Sure. Not good enough to make the playoffs in the AL East? Absolutely. But not a good team? Sorry, if arguments had legs, that one wouldn’t have one on which to stand. To your other points – you’re right that ownership can’t be blamed for how money is allocated, but it’s up to ownership how much money there is to be allocated. The Marlins don’t play one of the three toughest schedules in baseball every year. The division is the reason why the Jays haven’t even been close in a wild card race in September – only once has a team in the AL East (other than the Yanks and Sox) been in one in the last 11 years, and it’s only happened once.

   - Thomas
8. 8.
   August 25th, 2009 at 1:30 am
   

   Mike,

   Ask and ye shall receive…. courtesy of this place: http://www.statsright.com/baseball_batter_stats/rbi_by_inning_player.shtml

   Here is the Jays’ RsBI breakdown per inning, through August 23:

   1/62 Runs/11.00%
   2/74 Runs/13.00%
   3/62 Runs/11.00%
   4/87 Runs/16.00%
   5/57 Runs/10.00%
   6/54 Runs/10.00%
   7/58 Runs/10.00%
   8/72 Runs/13.00%
   9/19 Runs/3.00%
   EXTRA/14 Runs/3.00%

   Hopefully this is accurate… If it is, that Jays are scoring 35% of their runs in the first three innings, and 51% by the fourth. That’s for the whole season though, including the torrid start. What do you make of that spike in the fourth inning? Is it just a matter of having gone once through the order?

   MW: Please don’t say RsBI. Even though RBI stands for Run Batted In, an “RBI” exists as a thing on its own, as well. So the plural is RBIs. If that offends you, go with “ribbies” or “rib-eyes” or even “steaks”, but RsBI is just wrong. As for the research, a big thank you. The problem with it is that it only measures RBIs, which gives you a very close estimation of how many runs were actually scored, but it’s not exact. I’m also just as interested in the offensive slash stats, and I’d love to see if we could break it down to after the first 41 games. As for the fourth inning spike, it shouldn’t be a second time through the order thing, because they tend to hit so well over the first three innings that they’d almost be through a second time by the fourth.

   - Mike D
9. 9.
   August 25th, 2009 at 8:38 am
   

   Mike,

   Is/was there any interest by the Jays organization in signing Vicente Padilla/Jason Giambi or Billy Wagner?

   MW: A definite no on Wagner, he got by them in waivers all the way to the Red Sox. I doubt it on the other two.

   - ALT
10. 10.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:21 am
    

    Hey Mike,

    Since it is pretty much guarenteed we are not bringing back millar next year. How about keeping Ruiz as a bench player to platoon with Overbay (Overbay against righties, Ruiz against lefties). We can thus keep him on the bench, i see him as a better bench option then what we have now. Our bench next year: Bautista, Ruiz, Inglett, Encarnacion or a bench SS.

    MW: I don’t think that a player who can’t play a defensive position is a real asset on the bench with teams carrying 12 pitchers these days.

    - paolo
11. 11.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:27 am
    

    Hey Mike,
    What do you think the chances that Randy Ruiz has of getting the DH spot for next year?

    MW: I don’t think they’re very good.

    - Prdeep
12. 12.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:37 am
    

    Hey Mike,

    To further the call about suburbs vs. immediate Toronto area. I am a fan who commutes from Scarborough thus I consider myself somewhat immediate. In the glory years, I think our fan base was larger in the immediate Toronto area, however as the years progressed, the white Anglo-Saxon fans in the immediate Toronto area have been moving in droves to the suburbs, and were being replaced by immigrants (not that there’s anything wrong with immigrants) but I don’t see a lot of them enveloping our sports culture. With the decrease of white Anglo-Saxon fans in the area, and an increase in immigrant who watch (basketball, cricket, etc), the attendance at the gate has seen a resulting decline.

    So yah, that’s the explanation, all you people who moved out of the immediate Toronto area, it’s your fault, so either move back or stop being lazy and come out.

    - paolo
13. 13.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:02 am
    

    Hey Mike,

    One final suggestion, do you think if the Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay area baseball fans just didn’t watch ESPN Sunday night baseball when the Yanks and Sox play, that we could show them the error of their ways. If enough of the 3 aforementioned areas boycott ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, maybe ESPN the controllers of the MLB will force change.

    Heres hoping right!

    MW: ESPN doesn’t care whether people in Toronto watch. The same could probably be said of Baltimore, since it’s only the 26th-largest TV market in the U.S. Tampa-St. Pete is 13th, though. Still no biggie.

    - paolo
14. 14.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:08 am
    

    Hi Mike. Enjoy your show. Listen fairly regularly here in Ottawa. I have a question. I’m guessing that the disappointing, largely uninspired play that we’ve seen from the Jays this season (notwithstanding the first 2 months) is going to have a negative impact on season ticket renewals, attendance and potentially other sources of revenue. Do you think, or have you seen any indication, that there is a risk in the immediate future of the Jays going the way of the Expos and being sold and moved out of the country? Be interested in hearing your thoughts. Thanks.

    MW: No, not at all.

    - M
15. 15.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:47 am
    

    Hi Mike, I think you’re blaming the offense too much tonight. All the stats you mentioned are true but like you said, they are small sample sizes. You don’t like people to bring up stats as examples of small sample sizes to back up their argument so you should not as well. Nevertheless, the Jays scored 7 runs & I don’t care in any league, they should of won the game. If a team puts up 7 runs & looses in a game(doesn’t matter when in the game), it’s definitely not the hitting. It’s obviously the pitching. Halladay is human & had a off night & he does get a free pass but to blame this one loss mostly on the hitting when they put up 7 runs doesn’t make sense. That’s covering up the real reason why they loss. On top of that, the bullpen wasn’t too great either…Take car

    MW: Should HAVE, and there’s only one “o” in loses. You’re right, seven runs should be enough to win, but that doesn’t mean you have to stop when you get to seven.

    - david F
16. 16.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:59 am
    

    I think the Angels series inflates (deflates) the numbers. Relatively weak starters but a strong pen over a small sample size. But the point is a good one…perhaps hitting is contagious even within a game?

    MW: Hitting is contagious for three innings, and then lack of hitting is for six? Decent point about the Angels series, since the Jays got to the bullpen in the second inning twice. But when you go to the bullpen that early that often, it’s supposed to bite you, no?

    - Neil
17. 17.
    August 25th, 2009 at 11:34 am
    

    Well Mike, this team is baffling.

    Do you think that Figgins would come to TO? How much is too much for Scutaro and Barajas?

    After Halladay, Marcum, and Romero, who are your next 2 starters? Do the Jays make a play on Wagner, or too much risk for not enough reward?

    MW: I think Figgins would come to Toronto, given the right offer. If you go over $5 million and over two years for Scutaro, that’s too much. And two and ten is pushing it, anyway. I’d offer Barajas a one-year deal for no more than $3 million. My next two starters are Cecil and either Richmond or Rzepczynski. And no, there was never any play to be made on Wagner.

    - Aaron Ker
18. 18.
    August 25th, 2009 at 11:39 am
    

    Hi Mike,

    Maybe you should hold Baseball Today in the Blue Jay locker room. OR have Vernon Wells as a co-host. Question… who do YOU think would be a qualified alternative to J.P???
    Maybe the fans have some ideas.
    Personally, I don’t think it’s going to make any difference until there is either a cap and / or a balanced schedule / or a change in divisions. I always look forward to the show. Your insight is amazing.

    MW: Thanks. It would be something if Baseball Today could get Vernon going, wouldn’t it? Who would I hire if J.P. is gone? I’d be very happy leaving the team in the hands of either Tony LaCava or Alex Anthopoulos.

    - Brian Shugar
19. 19.
    August 25th, 2009 at 11:50 am
    

    Hi Mike,
    Is there a site that you know where I can find the number of World Series won by players.
    For example, Reggie Jackson played in the 1972 League Championship with Oakland but did not play in the World Series. So, did Jackson win 4 or 5 World Series?
    Thank you for your time.

    MW: I’m sure you could do a search for that on baseball-reference or baseball-almanac or some such. Jackson was on the ’72 A’s, so he won five.

    - Pierre Marceau
20. 20.
    August 25th, 2009 at 11:56 am
    

    Hi Mike,

    Are there any decent batters that will be available via free agency this off-season? And in your opinion do the Jays have a decent chance of signing any of them?

    Thanks.

    MW: I’ve answered that question a few times already, check back a few comments sections.

    - MacKay
21. 21.
    August 25th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
    

    michael,
    my last post re: halladay & his 43 consecutive starts 6+ innings etc..
    you are probably right, most likely not in danger of breaking any kind of a record.
    i mentioned gibson. carlton only to justly reference the sheer greatness of halladay.
    but i’m sure it’s been done since those guys were taking the ball every 5 (sorry 4 days)
    probably morris, gooden, johnson, santana or j. towers(you know back during his good years) have done it since those other formiddable stalwarts previously mentioned…

    MW: You don’t honestly think Josh Towers actually went 43 starts of at least six innings, do you?

    - darrell bishop
22. 22.
    August 25th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
    

    Mike,

    Doc hasn’t looked the same since the all star break and all the publicity surrounding a possible trade.
    That proposed deal with the Phils is starting to look like the one that got away.

    MW: No, it’s not.

    - marc
23. 23.
    August 25th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
    

    The offense, or more specifically the lack thereof, seems to be the major topic of the day. It has been abysmal but it is only part of the story. The defense has diminished, the offense has dried up, and the pitching has been average at best. The bottom line is that the brand of baseball that they are playing right now is difficult to stay enthused about. Maybe you can have the entire team on Baseball Today and truly test the trend towards a big game after appearing on your show!

    In your interview today with Marty Sprinstead be bemoaned the loss of familiarity between players and umps. I have to believe that the game is much better this way. From the example that he provided, don’t you think that Jim Palmer would have figured out the umpire’s tendencies by games 4-7 thereby giving him an advantage? He certainly acknowledged that he knew the pitcher’s tendencies. The current rotation system has to be the better system doesn’t it? If there is no familiarity then shouldn’t the umpire just call “his” strikezone without bias?

    By the way my personal opinion is consistent with Jesse Litsch’s, Halliday is getting squeezed. If he ever was given the leniency that Mariano Rivera gets his results would be off the charts!

    - K-Mike
24. 24.
    August 25th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
    

    Hey, Mike

    Give me a reason why J.P should keep his job?

    Can you get Beren Wells on your show please!

    MW: He built the best pitching and defense team in the majors over two years and has a ton of good, young pitching. Those are two reasons. I’m going to try to get Vernon Wells, but I don’t know how amenable he’ll be.

    - Raps Fan
25. 25.
    August 25th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
    

    michael,
    had to share. just read the jays article in today’s globe & mail at lunch….
    the rays manager apparently said that he’s glad they’re in the a.l. east cause’ it made them better quicker.
    oh that’s rich….
    so what should we gather from that michael? had the (devil) rays inception been in the a.l. central & not the a.l. east in 88′ & not 98′ it would have taken them maybe 15 to 20 yrs. to become a contender?
    hilarious…….

    - darrell bishop
26. 26.
    August 25th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
    

    Mike,
    If you look ESPN you can find team splits for innings 1-6 and 7plus. Toronto is 8th in runs scored overall and 10th after 7 innings.

    MW: Thanks, I know. But the Jays stop hitting way before the 7th, according to my theory.

    - JW
27. 27.
    August 25th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
    

    Hey Mike, I heard Eric Smith say the Jays shouldn’t resign Scutaro. I don’t see who else they’re going to get. Is there someone I’m missing that’s better than Scutaro and is available?

    MW: Well, we don’t really know how good Scutaro is, do we?

    - John McLean
28. 28.
    August 25th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
    

    Is it true or a myth that Halladay is disliked by some teammates because he isolates himself?

    MW: Nobody loves all his teammates, but I haven’t heard anything but admiration for Halladay from anyone on the team.

    - Chas
29. 29.
    August 25th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
    

    Mike,

    I was watching the game on tv last night and I was quite dissappointed and confused at one point during the broadcast. After Vernon Wells struck out during his 3rd at-bat the camera watched him walk back to the dugout while at the same time the commentators stopped talking and the volume of the crowd booing was turned up. The commentators didn’t talk about it afterwards, but there was definatly that awkward silence as they paused to let the viewers at home take in all the boos for Vernon. The reason i was confused by this is that Rogers owns both the team and the tv station. You would think they would not want negative publicity towards Vernon, but clearly they made an effort durring the broadcast to show the viewers at home how hard the fans were giving it to Vernon. Not only do I find booing Vernon in the first place to be of poor taste but for the tv broadcast to emphasize it I thought was also not to their benefit unless the announcers had addressed the situation, which they did not.

    I really hope Vernon does turn things around as the Jays are stuck with him, and he’s definatly not going to get better by people always being on his case about it. But I guess high expectations come with big contracts, which is unfortunate for him because i heard nothing but good things about Vernon the person.

    On a side note, could Ruiz be for real? Are there other cases in history like him ie. spending the majority of their career in the minors and then making an impact after age 30? I find myself trying real hard not to get too excited about him.

    MW: It would be pretty cool if Ruiz is for real, but the Blue Jays don’t seem to think so. I can’t think of anyone else who was a career minor-league then made an impact after turning 30. My immediate thought was Edgar Martinez, but it turns out he was an impact player at age 27. As for the Wells booing thing, I think the broadcast has an obligation to show the folks at home what is really going on, not to tell you that it’s raining while doing something else on your shoes.

    - Ian
30. 30.
    August 25th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
    

    Mike:

    The Blue Jays signed none of the people they drafted after round 38. Can you explain why?…is it because it was not financially attractive to these people, or perhaps the Blue jays had filled all available roster spots?

    Interested in teh answer, with thanx

    MW: Probably because those guys had a lot of leverage and were likely to go to college or junior college to try to wrangle themselves a much higher draft spot in the future. It happens all the time.

    - Mel
31. 31.
    August 25th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
    

    Hi Mike,
    I have had the same feeling as you about the Jays turning off the tap after good starts and it is nothing new.I don’t know whether it is lack of focus or the inability to come through when it counts,like as in clutch hitting.Maybe it is just a statistical anomaly.
    How about that Randy Ruiz!I just wish they had brought him up sooner.

    - Paul
32. 32.
    August 25th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
    

    Doc is my favorite all time jay, and it saddens me to see that his heart just is not with this team anymore. But what puzzles me is how our farm system is so dry for prospects. Besides pitching, all we have down there is years away. This is the perfect year to bring up players and see what they got and all we have is two position players in Snider and Ruiz? No third base prospect no middle infield player, its not like we traded any prospect away.

    MW: They have had an awfully hard time developing a shortstop, and there’s no one at third base who has emerged yet. The Jays concentrated a lot of their draft efforts on pitching in the hopes that they could trade that for hitting when the need arose, but then a lot of the pitching got hurt. I don’t believe that Halladay’s heart is elsewhere – he’s a pro.

    - jason c w
33. 33.
    August 25th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
    

    Warnings attached on my comment…

    But I am inclined to say that with Cito’s determination to stick with his starters and ignore late game match ups, we are being taken advantage of in terms of matchups regarding opposing team’s relieve corp.

    I have no numbers to back up my theory, but if your numbers/theory is remotely correct, it should equate to great numbers for the opposing starter/relievers no?

    Once again, I attach a warning, I wouldn’t know how scrubs like Millar/Chavez/Bautista did in replacement of Lind/Overbay/Barrajas etc. But, I would rather see Lind bat blindfolded against a lefty than watch Bautista up there trying to make contact against the same pitcher.

    MW: That’s an interesting thought (not the blindfold one, that’s just stupid), but that wouldn’t explain the mid-game power outage.

    - Antony
34. 34.
    August 25th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
    

    Mike,
    I heard you mention on Sunday I think that you don’t believe that Randy Ruiz will be a big part of the Blue Jays next season. Your opinion squares with the consensus that Ruiz is a “four-A” player. To date he has defied his critics. Do you know specifically why it has taken him this long to get an audition in the show? I mean, how can a guy win two minor-league batting titles and not be offered a cup of coffee. Think of all the drek that has passed through in the interim.

    MW: I don’t know why it took Ruiz so long to get a real shot. It may be his glove, it may be his size, it may be his swing, it may be something entirely different. I think that when a guy wins batting titles and hits for power in AAA, a team is obligated to give him a good, long look, no matter what. I don’t personally believe that Ruiz is a AAAA guy, necessarily. I’d love to see him be given the chance to fail at the major-league level to see if he does. But I know that the Jays don’t believe he’ll be a big part of the team next season.

    - Cleveland Mark
35. 35.
    August 25th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
    

    Conveniently Baseball Reference does the work for you: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=TOR&year=2009
    Interesting tidbits: Despite Scutaro being great at leadoff, we’re not especially good in the first inning. Our best innings are the 2nd, 4th, 3rd, and 8th in order. In chunks, it is as you expect: innings 1-3, pretty good, 4-6, not great, 7-9 pretty bad, and 10+, sad sack. Close and late situations are the saddest sack of all–we’re slugging .331.

    MW: Thanks! This includes the first 41 games, but it makes it a lot easier to figure out the overall (I only have to go through 41 games as opposed to 80+).

    - Torgen
36. 36.
    August 25th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
    

    You’ve said there is no Adam Dunn in the FA market but what do you think of Hideki Matsui (Purely a DH). I know he is not as good as Dunn but do you think jays can get him for like a Bobby abreu contract. He is having a good year or do you think its because New Yankees Stadium.

    MW: Matsui would be a fine addition – not spectacular, but certainly better than what’s come around here recently. My only concern with him is that it’s been hard to keep him on the field the past few years, though maybe DHing would mitigate the injury factor.

    - Vjey
37. 37.
    August 25th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
    

    If they aren’t hitting in the later innings, is it because pitchers are noticing something in the batters’ approach and adjusting accordingly? That would make a little bit of sense in that they are hitting in the first pass through the line-up.

    Do batters tip their approach in the way that pitchers sometimes do? I realize this sounds dumb. But it would explain why they were gangbusters at the start of the season and then declined rapidly.

    MW: I don’t know that batters tip their approach, but how would it explain the rapid decline post-hot start if they’re still gangbusters at the beginning of games?

    - isabella reyes
38. 38.
    August 25th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
    

    Hey Mike

    Is there any better candidate for AL MVP this season than the great Derek Jeter.

    Greatly improved defense this season, a .870 OPS, and a team that is the 31 games above .500 playing in the toughest division in baseball.

    Mark Teixeira should get some consideration and Mauer has actually been the best player but Jeter will likely win hands down.

    Great huh ??

    MW: Mauer is leading the league in average, on-base and slugging. All by wide margins. As a catcher! He’s the MVP.

    - stat lady
39. 39.
    August 25th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
    

    “The Jays have peaked. They peaked in 2006-07 with some very good teams that, unfortunately, competed with better ones. It’s going to be some time before they’re that good again.” – Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus, August 25, 2009

    Agree? Disagree? Any comments?

    Personally, I tend to agree. And I would rather see the Jays get on the fast track to contention a few years out, rather than the slow boat to oblivion (i.e., by signing more pricey free agents coming off strong seasons).

    In any case, keep up the good work.

    MW: I thought they actually peaked last year.

    - Geoff
40. 40.
    August 25th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
    

    It is not hyperbole when I say that this may be the worst team to watch in the Majors right now.

    - Renegade
41. 41.
    August 25th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
    

    Hi Mike my friend and I were gonna make a sign for the game the night before school starts and we were wondering if we used thick black letters and maybe a 3 feet x 3 feet bristol board would you be able to see it from where you are? ‘Cause I assume if you could see it in the box most people could too. PS we will be behind the Jays dugout thanks for your help!

    MW: Who do you want to be able to see the sign?

    - C Dowling
42. 42.
    August 25th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
    

    Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Vernon Wells.

    Out of 76 qualified players in AL:

    64th in BA
    74th in OBP
    65th in SLG
    70th in OPS

    He may very well finish the year with an OPS below .700.

    MW: He’s having an awful year.

    - Renegade
43. 43.
    August 25th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
    

    Michael,

    I think I maybe know the answer to this but I’m not sure.

    Why traditionally does the RF have the strongest arm in the OF?

    MW: Because the throw from right to third is the longest.

    - Uncle Ben
44. 44.
    August 25th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
    

    hey mike, how come all the excuses you make for why the jays cant win in the AL east dont apply to the rays?

    MW: They do.

    - vinny
45. 45.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
    

    Hello Mike Wilner,

    I think Halladay is just getting tired. Why not skip his next start and give him a break?

    He did not have a sharp break on almost any of his pitches. His fastball hardly reached 92 and he didn’t fool any batter. He has pitched a lot of innings and I think he deserves a break.

    One more thing, seriously whats so good about Cecil other than the fact that he is young? His fast ball is 88-92,and he can’t command his curve ball. He does not have very sharp location and his stuff is average. How come he was hyped up so much while he was in the minors, maybe I’m missing something?
    Thanks

    MW: Halladay is getting an extra day of rest before his next start. You’re missing something about Cecil. Specifically, the fact that he’s in the major leagues at 22.

    - UltimateBLUEJAYSfan
46. 46.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
    

    Mike:

    Even though you never disagree with the Blue Jay management…would you agree that JP is gone after this season.I believe he has done a good job in some areas but the time has come .I do not think Lacava or Anthopoulous would be a wise decision.how about Steve Phillips or Paul Depodesta.

    Thanks

    MW: You do realize that Steve Phillips traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, right?

    - ROB
47. 47.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
    

    Hey Mike my theory is that if you can see a sign from your booth, most people will be able to see it. So, do you think you could see a bold black 3 feet x 3 feet sign?

    MW: Easily.

    - C Dowling
48. 48.
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
    

    hey mike, how come all the excuses you make for why the jays cant win in the AL east dont apply to the rays?

    MW: They do.

    no they dont, the rays are winning and 3 games out of wild card

    MW: The Rays were the laughingstock of baseball for 10 years, and they made the playoffs last year, becoming the first team other than the Yankees and Red Sox to make the playoffs out of the A.L. East since 1997. Let’s see them do it again.

    - vinny
49. 49.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
    

    HAHA — Mike, it’ll be the night before class at U of T and there will be 3.50 Guinness pints at a local bar — wait and see the sign dude!

    - C Dowling
50. 50.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
    

    Hey Mike can you hear the really loud guys behind home telling Upton he sucks and that his little brother is better tha him?

    MW: No.

    - C Dowling
51. 51.
    August 25th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
    

    If the Jays actually spend some money in the offseason, do you think Marlon Byrd would be worth going after. Lind has looked pretty bad in left lately and Snider, to me, seems like a left fielder. I was all for going after Bay, but the outfield has looked so suspect lately I was thinking, Byrd could play both center and right, and add some decent pop, not many walks, but he supplies good defence.

    MW: Byrd is OK, but I don’t think of him as anything special. Also, he hasn’t shown any pop at all outside of The Ballpark at Arlington, which isn’t a good sign. As well, the last thing the Jays need is another right-handed hitter who doesn’t walk much.

    - Clint
52. 52.
    August 25th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
    

    Mike, your suggestion on the air tonight that the Rays had to be awful for 10 years to build a good team in 2006 is simply ridiculous.

    Andrew Friedman, who is the guy who turned the team around, wasn’t hired until the 2006 season, and in 2008 he won the AL East and went to the World Series on a meager payroll. Two poor seasons was sufficient. The previous eight was simply the poor management of Chuck Lamar. You owe your readers and listeners this information

    MW: I don’t think that’s true. The seeds sown by the previous eight years of serious, serious suckdom certainly helped the Rays build the team they have right now.

    - stat lady
53. 53.
    August 26th, 2009 at 12:29 am
    

    Nevermind. I have kids, and therefore limited time on the computer. Just asking while I had the time. Love the show!

    MW: Huh?

    - MacKay
54. 54.
    August 26th, 2009 at 12:33 am
    

    A few thoughts about some comments above.

    First, I will go out on a limb and suggest that perhaps Halladay’s first half was a bit better than we might have seen if this season could somehow be played over ten or more times. That would suggest that his pitching now isn’t as bad as some may think.

    Second, I’d like to know how long for this job is Cito Gaston, particularly if things continue through September as they have been. Recall that Gibbons was dispatched due to a generally lacklustre performance and it seems that every week that passes takes some more shine off of Gaston’s success last year and the first couple of months of this season.

    Third, there was a newspaper columnist on the Fan but I can’t remember his name – I think it was something like Jeff Blair?? Anyway, this was back when Rios went to Chicago. Blair suggested to, I think Roger Lajoie, that there were people in the Toronto clubhouse that wouldn’t even have noticed Rios was gone until the fifth inning. Is there a perception of laziness, passiveness or apathy in that clubhouse? It sure sounded like it from this point of view.

    And finally, I will agree somewhat with the assessment of immigration and the effect on attendance. I would though, disagree with you that there is no chance of an Expos-style situation happening here. If five years from now find the Blue Jays under .500 in August, with no real improvement overall year-to-year, I would bet that the people of Toronto would have increasingly found other things to do with their money. Once the bleeding begins it can be hard to stop.

    MW: And if that’s the case, then there shouldn’t be a major-league team in Toronto anyway. Going backwards, I think that some have perceived all those things about the Jays’ clubhouse, mostly because of the lack of a loud screamy “leader” type. I think Cito is safe through next year.

    - Rob M
55. 55.
    August 26th, 2009 at 10:18 am
    

    michael,
    yes… being completely whimsical with the towers thing grouping him in with those other preeminents.
    facetiousness doesn’t always translate totally cut & dry via email does it? i take it for granted sometimes. sorry about that….

    MW: Whew.

    - darrell bishop
56. 56.
    August 27th, 2009 at 8:02 am
    

    big yankee fan wanted to know if you think they will win the series this year. also jeter has to get some mvp votes i know you dont like him and think he is a singles hitter but he really is one of the greatest shortstops of all time

    MW: He’s one of the greatest offensive shortstops of all time, no question. Do I think the Yankees will win the World Series this year? Not especially, but I think they’ll definitely make the playoffs. Jeter will get plenty of MVP votes, but Joe Mauer is the MVP.

    - ted