11:10 PM Eastern
……of Weekend Bloggage. Other than to say man, was that close.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Tomorrow – a pre-pre-game show for your listening pleasure at noon Eastern, and then the Jays look for two in a row!
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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To show what a poor season Vernon is having, compare his production with Manny’s. Both have 13 HR; Vernon has 51 RBI whereas Manny has 45 RBI; but Vernon has 475 AB and Manny has only 240 AB.
(Maybe Vernon should visit Manny’s Florida doctor…kidding)
MW: That shows what a poor season Vernon is having?
- JohnMichael,
On the show you mentioned you thought Ricky Romero would be the no.3 starter next year barring any off-season changes. Since the all-star break his ERA is 6.10 and his K/BB ratio stinks.
What do you attribute this drop-off to?
Incidentally, he’s pitched far fewer MLB innings this year but Brett Cecil has been very good since the all-star break with a 2.49 ERA. At only 23, is Cecil someone you could see being a no.1 in the near future?
MW: I could see Cecil being a number one in the future, but he only just turned 23 so I’m not sure about how near that future is. I attribute Romero’s drop-off to facing the Red Sox twice and getting hammered.
- Uncle BenA bit of confusion, Mike.
Shaun Marcum, before he hurt his back was on track to get back to the majors in 10 months from his surgery.
Most TJ pitchers get back within 12 months
So why do you speak of Jesse Listch as not being back before “at LEAST the All Star break” which would be more like 14 months?
To be clear, I’m not sure that Listch would be among our five best pitchers when he is ready, but I’m still puzzled as to why he wouldn’t be back as quick as the average guy – based on what we know now?
MW: I’m not saying he won’t be BACK before then, he may well be. But I don’t think we can expect him to be himself until then – if not until 2011.
- WillRainIt’s interesting you list Halladay-Marcum-Romero as the likely 1-2-3 with Cecil and then one of Purcey/Mills/Richmond/Rzepczynski. Do we consider Romero better than Richmond BECAUSE he’s 24 (and that’s incredibly reasonable)? I ask because I know you care little for W-L, and they have very similar ERAs and FIPs. Richmond has the better K:BB (more Ks AND less BBs) but Romero keeps the ball in the park better. Richmond may well have earned himself the #5 spot next year, no matter what happens in spring.
MW: If you watch the way the Blue Jays have bounced Richmond from the rotation to the bullpen and skipped him almost whenever possible, it’s apparent that he hasn’t earned the fifth spot yet – at least not in management’s eyes. Rzepczynski may be ahead on that score right now.
- AriHey Mike,
I keep hearing you defend Vernon Wells by saying that he’s having the same year at 30 that Joe Carter and Mike Lowell had at 30. First off Carter hit 24 hrs and 100+ rbi’s, he only hit 230 something but that’s only about twenty points lower than Joe Carter usually hits. And as for Lowell he hit 27 homeruns with 85 rbi’s and a 290 something average. Lowell did have a crappy year at 31, but even so i don’t think the comparison to Wells is accurate in either case. What’s really worrying with Wells is that he’s never been consistent at putting up numbers and since 2006 his numbers are on a steady decline. I’m not a vernon hater, I feel bad for him. He seems like a good guy trying his best, but in my opinion he skills have deteriorated. Do you really think he can bounce back to the 2003 or 2006 numbers? To me he seems to have slowed in the field and doesn’t seem to be able to handle anything on the outside part of the plate like he used to.
MW: You’re right – Lowell’s crappy year was his age-31 season. Wells’ numbers aren’t on a steady decline since 2006 – that’s not true at all. He was awful in 2007, but terrific in 2008, then awful this year. If you’d watched Carter in his off-year – heck, even in his on-years – you wouldn’t have thought that he could handle anything on the outside part of the plate, either.
- JerryMike,
First off, I like the work you do. As a long-time baseball fan (Koufax and the Dodgers!), but not a stats geek, your commentary on the radio and the blog is both entertaining and stimulating. And you are neither blindly optimistic nor are you afflicted with what seems to afflict many blog commenters and callers, especially Prime Time callers, that is, a delight in being poisonously negative.
Like everyone else, I enjoy winning more than losing, but in a 162-game schedule, there are obviously going to be stinkers (hey, there are even stinkers in sports with 82-game seasons, I’ve heard), but it seems as if Toronto has a lot of baseball ‘fans’ who are interested only in a game that is won, not one that is well played (thanks Lombardi).
I’m wondering about a couple of things:
I’ve been inclined to subscribe to some kind of value in team chemistry/leadership (I know you’re sceptical), but this season may change my thinking. Evidence is mounting that IF there is such a thing, the Jays don’t have it and there’s no formula for getting it. I’m beginning to think that IF it mattered that Wells is a quiet leader, Millar is a great guy in the clubhouse, Hill and Rolen and McDonald are the throwback dirtbag players we all like, THEN we might have been spared some of the indifferent play that has marred some games.
I heard someone claim that another reason Rolen wanted out is that he was fed up with the lackadaisical attitude of some on the team. Any truth to this that you’ve heard?
I don’t pretend to know more than the people playing/managing the game, and I’ve always like Cito, but even I, listening on the radio, often find his in-game management uninspired. I’m wondering whether this might have a sub-conscious effect on the play of those players who are savvy enough to be frustrated by it.
Finally, is it my imagination, or is it the case that the Blue Jays lead the majors in solo home runs?
Thanks.
MW: The things that I have heard about Rolen wanting out have nothing at all to do with the attitude of his teammates. I have to believe that some players in the dugout scratch their heads about some of the moves Cito makes during games. The Texas Rangers lead the majors in solo home runs, with 121. The Blue Jays are tied for 7th with 83.
- kateIs Frasor injured or is Gaston simply incompetent? Frasor hasn’t pitched since Wednesday and has only made two appearances in a week covering just an inning in each, yet he hands the ball off to the unpredictable League and an equally shaky Janssen. And let’s be honest… if it wasn’t for Hill’s spectacular play the home run that followed would’ve been a grand slam to tie the game. No doubt then Gaston would’ve went to Frasor – when it’s too late. You don’t want to use your best guy in the pen to close out the game, you want to save him for a tie game so you can hope to win in extra innings… or save him for the next game they’re losing with no chance of a comeback. That’s brilliant managing.
MW: I thought I saw Frasor starting to warm up after Mike Napoli homered off Janssen, but now I’m led to understand that Frasor has a bit of a sore shoulder and wasn’t available last night, nor will he be today.
- jimLast night was close, I don’t think I have any nails left after watching that 9th inning LOL.
- RoyceHey Mike,
Haven’t had a chance to comment in the last few days, but I wanted to thank you and Mike Lowell for the amazing interview on Thursday.
He was very candid, and his insights were terrific. He has really helped me to put the Vernon Wells situation in perspective. I am cautiosly optimistic that Vernon can re-focus in the offseason and rebound strong for next year.
I also wanted to give you some props for asking some fantastic questions, and really driving the interview in those kinds of direcions. You should post a link to that interview as a response to every VW basher that comments here.
Also, is there any validity to the “30 year slump” i.e. that many good players tend to slump in the year they turn 30? I have heard some people mention Joe Carter as an example of this, but I can’t find any stats…
My final thought is that: If next year, we can compare VW to Joe Carter and Mike Lowell, he’d been in some pretty good company.
Thanks,
MW: For Lowell, as I’ve been corrected above, it was his age-31 season. I haven’t really heard of the age-30 slump with any kind of regularity at all. One of our better commenters, WillRain, did a whole breakdown of the Wells/Carter comparison a couple of months back.
- Scotty DOne caller phoned and suggested that Scott Richmond has a high ERA. Are some of your callers not aware that this kind of thing can be easily checked and that it ain’t exactly rocket science to do so?
Richmond’s ERA is 4.01. The league ERA is 4.46.
Richmond’s ERA is most definitely not high. Not when compared to the league average. And not when the context of his paycheque is factored in — an ERA of 4.01 for someone making $400K is not high though it could be considered high for someone making what Sabathia makes.
MW: An ERA of 4.00 used to be pretty high, but not anymore.
- Chuck V2010
1B Lyle Overbay
2B Aaron Hill
3B Chone Figgins
SS Marco Scutaro
C TBD (Barajas)?
RF Snider
CF Wells
LF TBD (Bay, Damon, Abreu, Dye?)
DH Lind
1B platoon Dopirak or Ruiz (switch them back and for between MLB and AAA based on performance)
Utility IF: JJ Hard (healthy competition for Scutaro)
Backup catcher: Chavez/Jeroloman
Halladay
Marcum
Romero
Mills
Rzepczynski
Downs
Accardo
League
Frasor
Roenicke
Carlson
Janssen
MW: You don’t like Brett Cecil? What is it about Brad Mills that gets him the job?
- RMBatting Order
RHP
Figgins (high OBP, speed)
Overbay (high OBP)
Bay/Damon/Abreu/Dye
Lind
Hill (if power continues, low OBP)
Snider (sky is limit, could be #3)
Wells (pretty good 7 hitter)
Catcher
Scutaro (2nd leadoff)
LHP
Figgins
Scutaro
Bay/Damon/Abreu/Dye
Hill
Lind
Dopirak/Ruiz
Wells
Snider
Catcher
MW: Scutaro hitting 9th?
- RMhey mike
do you know if their are any team-options on the Wells contract? (ie if he doesnt make a certain amount of at bats one year..like magglios contract)
MW: The only option on the contract belongs to Wells. He can opt out after the 2011 season, but doing so would forfeit $63 million over three years.
- jpDo you think Papelbon’s game is more psychological than overpowering? Why can’t Brandon League, who can throw as hard, not be a Papelbon?
MW: It’s not all about throwing hard. It’s about control and movement. League probably has better movement than Papelbon, but he can’t control it consistently nearly as well.
- HowardMike,
Why do some players when they are baserunning, hold their batting gloves in their hands?
MW: So that they don’t break their fingers sliding.
- AlexWere you surprised by under 16,000 to see LAA and Jays?
Wouldn’t it be good for local papers to put a daily HR leader box up with Hill having a shot to win AL HR title ?
It might create some buzz and give Hill some hype .
Hitting Snider 9th is lunacy ?
MW: 1 – Yes, I was, but it’s kind of become cool in Toronto to hate the Blue Jays. 2 – It’d be interesting, and if the Jays were doing well the papers would probably do that. 3 – Is that a question? I don’t think it’s lunacy, but I wouldn’t do it.
- ChasMike,
I’m starting to read your blog more regularly. You seem to work pretty hard with the broadcasting, blogging, AND responding to comments on your blog.
I don’t want to make my comment too long, but another time I’ll relate to you the funniest call I ever heard on Jaystalk.
Quick questions: Hill and Lind have been quite impressive; do you see them continuing to improve? What happened to Russ Adams; has he peaked and gone?
MW: If Lind hits at this level for the rest of his career, that would be pretty terrific, but I think we can see that on-base percentage go up a bit more. As for Hill, I don’t expect that we’ll see this kind of power from him on a regular basis, but I think his walk rate will also improve down the road. At least, I hope so. Adams decided to become a free agent rather than go back to AAA after the Jays sent him back down, he’s now with the Padres organization.
- FredMichael,
If there is a new GM and/or president next year do you think we might see a change in manager as well?
Some of Cito’s decisions have been cringe worthy and the teams doesn’t seem to have hit better which was the area Cito thought he could help improve the most.
I’d love to see Larry Dierker here, although I’m not sure he’s interested in managing anymore.
MW: I’ll ask Alan Ashby about what Dierker was like as a manager. I would expect that a new GM would be able to choose his own coaching staff, but Cito and the coaches all have a year left on their contracts, and Cito is a local icon, so I wouldn’t expect that a new GM’s first move would be to fire him.
- Uncle BenMike,
How much better do you think Ruiz would have done than Millar had he been the Jays’ full-time DH this year?
Millar has hit 227/305/374 this year.
Ruiz hit 320/392/584 in AAA, and is hitting 316/366/553 in ten games in the majors.
My guess is that Ruiz would definitely have posted a better OPS than 679 out of the DH spot, even assuming the league figures him out a bit after the first go-around.
I guess my larger point is that the Jays don’t really seem to be a meritocracy anymore, despite what JP has preached in recent seasons. Whether the decision is Cito’s or JP’s, players seem to be able to hit atrociously on this club and keep their job for months. I know sometimes this is because there isn’t a better option available, but really. On Thursday the Jays’ 3/4/5 hitters were Wells, Barajas and Millar, which is just inexplicable, unless the team is gunning for a high draft pick in 2010.
MW: You write this as though Millar has been a full-time player, which he most certainly hasn’t been. Had Ruiz been the full-time DH all season, Travis Snider or Adam Lind would have started the season in the minors, which would have been problematic. Once Snider got sent down, though, left field became that whole morass of Inglett/Bautista/Dellucci/Adams/Millar (when Lind was in left). Would Ruiz have done better than that crew? Almost assuredly. The Jays’ reluctance to pull the plug on failing vets has been one of their biggest problems over the last couple of years.
- GeoffI’m going to have a little rant and for a change it’s not directed at JP Ricciardi.
A poster above takes a shot at us ‘fans’ who only want to see a winning game as opposed to a well-played game. Well, yes. I’m a fan. No quotation marks necessary, and I want to see my team win. I don’t care how sloppily or badly they play. If they win. It’s always nice to see a well-executed move on the part of the opposition, but in general I’m there to cheer my guys on, not the other team.
I spend a lot of money for season tickets every year to support the Blue Jays. I continue to spend that money, even faced with fast diminishing expectations that the team will ever make the play-offs. And I don’t need to be lectured about my attitude.
This club has lost far too often. Vernon Wells has been paid far too much. The front office has delivered far too little in terms of a winning team. The Jays have always been just a couple of pieces away from the big-time, but somehow those pieces never added up. Even now, they can’t totally rebuild because they do have some excellent players on the team and they are players that need to stay. I have hopes that a blockbuster trade could be effected in the off-season that would give the Jays back a lot of value for Roy Halladay. However I have fears that such a trade might be mishandled by current front office types, and then we will all be back where we started (again).
I will still buy my season tickets and still go to games. But I will reserve the right to get very ticked-off if the team doesn’t perform. And I am still a fan. Like I said, no quotation marks necessary. I am totally uninterested in admiring the lovely plays made by the lovely opposition while we all sit in the bloody stands and sing Kumbaya.
I can assure this poster that fans in Boston and NY are as uninterested in watching the Jays play well as I am in watching their teams play well. The fans need to be partisan. When they get into it, the atmosphere in the ball-park changes and good things happen.
MW: I think you’re reading this the wrong way. No one is saying that fans shouldn’t be (very) partisan or shouldn’t want to see the team win. But the fact of the matter is that no matter how good your team is, you’re likely to come to the ballpark and have at least a one in three chance of seeing your team lose. Does that mean it wasn’t worth coming to the game? Is there not utility in seeing a good, close game no matter who wins? Sure, you leave disappointed if your team loses, but you still saw a good game. But the question is fair, I think – if you only support your team when you feel it has a chance to win, are you really supporting your team?
- isabella reyesTell me this Mike, why wasn’t the dropped ball by Lind that resulted in 2 runs scoring, not considered an error….he over ran the ball slightly, and it bounced off the heel of his glove…..it wasn’t off the top of the webbing and considered out of reach?
With one less ER to his credit, Richmond could, and should have been credited technically with a quality start.
MW: I didn’t think it was an error, but it was a ball that Lind said he should have caught. He was in mid-slide/dive when he got to the ball, and it’s awfully tough to give an error when the fielder has left his feet to make a play. Take solace in the fact that a “quality start” is pretty much a B.S. statistic. Scott pitched well yesterday.
- Bob RichmondOoops.
I meant Cecil, and not Mills.
And yes Scutaro 9th. I’d rather Overbay get more AB’s than him, and I like his ability to get on base for the 2-3-4-5 hitters to drive him in.
MW: If you like Scutaro’s ability to get on base, then why do you want to give him the fewest plate appearances on the team?
- RMMW: If you like Scutaro’s ability to get on base, then why do you want to give him the fewest plate appearances on the team?
Because with the way that lineup stacks up, I think he is the 2nd worst hitter on the team (I’m guessing the Catcher will be the worst), despite his good OBP.
As we speak, Figgins OBP/OPS is .397/.800 with 32 SB. Overbay is .390/.872, and against righties it is .416/.940!! Scutaro is a very respectable .390/.828, but I still think that all things considered (at least statistically), there is a better argument in putting Figgins and Overbay in the 1-2 spot than Scutaro.
As for the 3-4-5-6 spots, I doubt that you would argue putting Scutaro ahead of Bay, Hill, Lind or Snider.
The 7 spot (Wells). I suppose a strong argument could be made to put Scutaro there instead of Wells, but I don’t know… Maybe as the season goes on, you switch them, but I think I’d give Wells a chance to bounce back. Either way, they’d both be pretty low in the lineup.
Now for the 8th spot (Catcher). I figure that if you’re going to have Scutaro that low in the lineup, you may as well keep him as close to the “good” hitters as possible. He’s very good at drawing a walk or hitting singles, so I’d hate for him to do so on a regular basis, say with 2 out, just to have .230 hitting catcher pop out. Instead, he might get on base, and start a rally with the top of order coming up.
Just my way at looking at things.
Of course, Cito wouldn’t go for this, I don’t think. He’d probably throw Overbay down in 8th spot, despite the fact that he gets on base as much as Scutaro, but hits for more power.
MW: It’s solid reasoning. I know Overbay doesn’t like hitting in the second spot, and I know that Cito would prefer more speed up there. I guess, though, that if Scoot isn’t top two, ninth is probably the best spot.
- RM