11:25 PM Eastern
The Blue Jays came home and put up a nine-spot up on Josh Beckett, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon. It wasn’t enough, thanks mostly to another shaky start against Boston by Ricky Romero and a throwing error by Casey Janssen, but it was a lot of fun to watch.
As I mentioned a couple of times on the post-game, this was a wonderfully entertaining game, and I have a feeling we’re going to be seeing a lot more of those down the stretch now that Randy Ruiz and Travis Snider are here.
Both rookies made their presence felt early, homering in each of their first at-bats of the night. Ruiz has a hit in every game he’s played as a Blue Jay, and the home runs have come against some tough customers in Joba Chamberlain, A.J. Burnett and now Beckett. The guy had a reputation of not being able to hit quality big-league pitching, and he’s disproving it day by day.
With the two of them here to take the place of Alex Rios and the Millar/Bautista/Inglett/Dellucci/Adams conflagration, we could be in for some high-scoring nights down at the old concrete convertible. I know it’s too little too late for a lot of you, and it won’t matter because where were they when it counted, but they were in Vegas, trying their best to get back to the big leagues. The Jays have 45 games left this season, and only 10 of them come against teams that aren’t right in the thick of a pennant race. This will be an accurate reflection of these players’ abilities, and I’m looking forward to seeing it. Haven’t felt that way about the Jays in a while.
As for the Romero Boston thing, it seems quite a thing, and a thing that one hopes the young lefty will be able to get past, because he’s going to see a lot of the Red Sox over the course ofthe next five-plus years, at least. Romero has started three times against Boston, and in those three starts has pitched just 12 innings, allowing 14 earned runs on 19 hits, walking 12, striking out 15 and allowing four home runs. For those who want more numbers, that’s a 10.50 ERA and 2.583 WHIP. Mugly.
Against everyone else, however, Romero has pitched 113 1/3 innings over 17 starts, having allowed 107 hits, 41 earned runs, 37 walks and 12 homers. He’s struck out 82. That’s a 3.26 ERA and 1.271 WHIP. He’s averaging 6 2/3 innings per start against everyone but the Red Sox. Throw out Boston, and here’s your rookie of the year (he’d be 10-3, by the way), hands down. Except that you can’t throw out Boston.
Romero’s a rookie, and it’s too early to make judgements, too early to say there are teams he can’t beat (he’s 5-0 against the Yankees, Tigers and Phillies – three first-place teams, for example), too early really to say anything. Except you hope that this thing doesn’t get into his head and become a real thing. He may yet get another couple of shots at the Red Sox in September to try to disprove it.
Here’s tonight’s short edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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And since I haven’t posted since Saturday, here’s Sunday afternoon’s edition as an extra added bonus:
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Tomorrow on Baseball Today at noon Eastern on The Fan590 and this very website, we’re scheduled to have Jays scouting director Jon Lalonde, and young studly Canadian outfield prospect Nick Weglarz (currently at AA Akron in the Indians’ system). I’m hopeful we’ll have Romero in studio later in the week, and I’m going to try to get Jason Bay to come in and take calls on Thursday, though that’s a real longshot. I went to the umpires room before the game today to try to get an ump to sit down and do a lovely interview for the show, but was rebuffed. Evidently, the Commissioner’s Office doesn’t want umpires talking to the media late in the season. Not sure if that’s true or if it was just a polite way to decline the interview request.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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I think The Romero for rookie of the year talk can be put to bed.
Just another day at the office for a Jays fan. You just feel at this point with the score 7-7, if the Sox scored one more that be enough. If the Sox scored 2 the Jays would have scored 1. If they scored 4, the Jays 3. This game you can chalk it up to error by the pitcher. There is always a new way to lose with these guys, but once again at the end of the year we’ll all be talking about how the numbers or James’ pythagorean expectation says otherwise.
And perhaps it will be fun watching Snider and Ruiz down the stretch, but all that means is another meaningless September push. It be nice just for once if those September games were actually meaningful.
MW: That’s life in the AL East.
- DanIn a perverse way, I think I’d be happier if the Jays got blown out in the losses and squeaked out the one run wins.
How would I find out the team in the last twenty or thirty years with the worst real record and best run differential?
MW: Good question, you’d have to do some research, but I’ll bet you can find it on baseball-reference.com if you work hard.
- Greg WWith Hill, Lind, Ruiz, Snider, Dopirak (soon), Arrencibia (soon)EE (healthy next year), this lineup could really cause some serious damage and all at a reasonable cost.
What would be nice, is if Cito started putting Ruiz in the 4th hole, Snider in the 5th hole and moved Wells and Overbay down-with Wells batting 9th.
Of course, it also doesn’t help that we sent down Accardo who was lights out in his last 10 games and recalled Janssen. I wonder whether Janssen will ever make it back to what he was, time will tell. But in the meantime, he should be sent back down to AAA and finish the season there.
MW: Because of one error?
- gerryHey Mike,
Just came across something interesting on the Jays’ website in the preview for tomorrow’s game:
“Entering Tuesday, Toronto’s pitching staff had allowed the fewest hits (239), earned runs (104) and home runs (21) since the All-Star break.”
Considering the team’s record since the All Star Break is a pretty rotten 11-16, I found this information pretty shocking. Whoever said pitching wins pennants…
I don’t have anything particular insightful to say about this, but I just thought I’d share. Sharing is caring, afterall.
Excelsior!
MW: Thanks, Stan.
- BrandenWhy must Kevin Millar still be here? Why?
I have a new theory as to why VW gets booed so much, aside from his poor performance, perhaps these fans that I’ve thought are idiots are really trying to help the bottom line. Maybe if they boo him enough he’ll opt out after 2011, $60-70 million is a lot of money, but not worth your sanity.
If that’s not the reason, then they need to ease up on the guy, it’s not going make him do any better obviously. Take a cue from Red Sox fans and their treatment of Big Papi this season, he’s struggled and they’ve been behind him. Booing your home players incessantly and mercilessly displays a lack of class.
MW: I don’t think that fans will be able to boo Wells into leaving $63 million over three years on the table.
- Sean in LethbridgeMike,
I had been wondering lately what kind of money Scutaro will be able to command in the FA market. I agree completely that $8M over 2 years is a fair deal for both parties, but you’re obviously suggesting that there is a GM out there that is ‘foolish’ enough to overpay for him, maybe to the tune of $5-6M per season? Or at least lock him up long term at $4M per season.
What kind of factors are you taking into account when you’re making the assumption that there is a team in major leagues is going to: a) pay him more than $4M per season, and, b) lock him for 3+ years?
The market value for a SS, maybe even a 34 year old SS, that hits .300/.389/.448, and is also one of the best defensive SS in the league is definitely more than $4M per season, but Scutaro is not your average 34 year old shortstop with above average numbers. It seems very hard to believe that there is even one GM out there who doesn’t realize that it is most likely a very bad gamble to lock up Scutaro into his late 30s all the while paying him $4M+ per season.
Can you think of any sort of precedent of a player that has put up below average numbers for his whole career, then had his career year at ‘an advanced age’ putting up well above average numbers and then tripling or quadrupling their salary in the off season? It doesn’t seem that there has been a GM this ‘foolish’ in the recent past, but at the same time, it doesn’t seem as though there has been a ‘Scutaro-like situation’ recently that is comparable.
MW: Without the “advanced age” part – how about Gary Matthews, Jr.?
- SteveHi Mike,
I am VERY disappointed in the Blue Jays Management team. They were the only MLB team unable to come to terms with 3 of their top 4 draft picks (as you know 2 of these were the compensations picks for A.J. Burnett).
What I do not understand is that every team speaks with the agents before they are drafted. From those conversations, each team should know where they stand in terms of the signability of the player.
Therefore, who is to blame in the Blue Jays front office? Is it Beeston or JP? Is it the scouts?
I recently viewed a list of money each team spent on drafted players and the Jays finished 8th from the BOTTOM. Was that not the impetus for letting Rios go to Chicago for free? To reinvest this money into the team and more specifically to spend it on drafted players and free agents.
I understand that the Jays will receive compensation picks for those 3 draft picks that did not sign. However, this will mean that they will take an extra year to develop (if the Jays are able to sign them).
Please explain how the Jays did not have enough money to sign at least 1 of these 3 draft picks.
I remember that you had one of these Canadian drafted players on your show stating how proud he was to be drafted by the Blue Jays. It certainly sounded as though he wanted to play for Toronto. He did not give any indication that he would not sign. What went wrong?
MW: What went wrong was that more than half a million dollars wasn’t enough for him. You’re right in that the Jays knew basically what the demands of the players would be before they drafted them, but they must have believed that a compromise was possible. They never said that the Rios money would go into signing bonuses, though that would have been nice. The Jays also didn’t want to re-set the bar for what they pay draft picks.
- Kevin4-digit WHIPs? Scintillating!
You’re right, that Romero thing sure is a thing. Nevertheless it was an entertaining game and I wish I’d purchased tickets for tonight’s game rather than Thursday. Ah well.
Now that Ruiz and Snider are in the show (for good?..) who is going to hit the home runs down in Sin City? Are there any other notable up-and-coming power bats in the Jays system? Brett Harper?
P.S. That Jason Lane post from a few days ago was only half-serious. He pitched an inning (or maybe three individual thirds of an inning…) for the 51′s this season, striking out one and allowing no baserunners. Much better than Chris Michalak’s tasty line.
MW: Much better, indeed. I doubt Ruiz is in the show for good, but it’d be nice to see him given a legit shot. Harper is no longer in the Jays’ organization.
- KPHey Mike,
Snider was in Las Vegas trying to work his way back to the big leagues?
Then he must have been getting outperformed by Dellucci/Inglett/Millar/Bautista over the last six weeks.
Or was he being held down there until a certain date to preserve arbitration status?
As for continuing to bat Snider ninth in the order . . . he’s not going to hit ninth next year, he’s already had two stints to get comfortable in the majors. Move him to sixth or seventh in the order and see how he handles it.
As a ballplayer, who wants to bat ninth? Snider has earned a look to see what he can do elsewhere in the lineup.
MW: Snider will be moved up as September goes along, I hope – like Adam Lind was last year. Your first two sentences aren’t necessary a true “if…then”.
- Ken PaganThis is real sports right here, when you’ve got guys with soemthing to prove. I find that quality lacking most days, but watching Snider and Ruiz renews my faith that good old fashioned, blue-collar baseball isn’t dead.
- T.J.M-Duuuub,
Question:
Are infielders paying attention to pitch signals? Do outfielders get any sort of signage?
MW: The middle infielders definitely pay attention of the signals to pitchers. Outfielders generally get positioned by the dugout, but they can get signals from the infielders.
- slobberfaceHi Mike,
I haven’t seen a post on the Jays draft woes, so I guess this is where it goes. I only have one thought on this. I read that the Jays spent a total of $3.7 million on 9 of 12 picks in the first 10 rounds. That was good for 23rd in the league when comes to money spent in this draft. Now (assuming those #s are correct) the Jays brass can talk all they want about competing in the AL East, and how difficult it is to try and spend with the Yanks and the Red Sox, but if they aren’t going to even bother to spend relative peanuts (or at least to the middle of the pack in the league!) to stock their farm system, then they’ll never have a shot. Obviously we don’t know the whole story behind the picks, but to spend in the lower 1/3 of the league on draft picks won’t get this team very far, no matter how much they increase payroll by.
MW: There has to be more to it than just who spent how much money on how many players. I’ll try to find out.
- Kevin A.I agree…the game was very entertaining!!
If nothing else we should have some entertaining games down the stretch. It would be awesome to see a solid finish to the season to end on a positive.
Snider just seems to add excitement to the lineup period…before after about the 6th slot things got blahh to me….now I am excited to watch the whole lineup. It is a good fit 9th too as it sets up the top 4-5 batters for the next run through the order. Did Inglett get sent down to AAA then? I felt he was starting to come around too….
MW: Inglett did get sent down. I don’t think Snider is a good fit in the 9th spot – he’s not the guy you want getting the fewest plate appearances.
- CoryMinor League Roster alert! Tiny Tim Collins has just been promoted to AA New Hampshire, and picked up the win in his first appearance last night — 1 inning, hitless, then the ‘Cats scored 5 in the bottom half for the win. (Dan Farquhar finished — maybe the two smallest pitchers on any team anywhere!)
Jays fans may soon (well, maybe not REAL soon) have some more SWS (short/white/scrappy) guys for whom to cheer!
MW: Can’t wait!
- NormHey Mike,
Thanks for yesterday’s post, speculating on personnel moves is one of my favorite parts of being a sports fan.
In that vein, would you take a shot at some of the high-risk pitchers available? (Meaning Webb and Bedard specifically)
With incentive-laden deals, there could be a real opportunity to get some bargains. It would also free up some young pitchers to be included in some trades.
Keep up the good work.
MW: I would, but not to free up young pitching for trade. A healthy Bedard in May doesn’t mean a healthy Bedard in August. Or even in May, for that matter. I don’t know that Webb will be available.
- Scotty DMike,
Don’t you think continuing to hit Snider 9th is silly?
MW: I don’t know if silly is the right word.
- ChasGreat to see Snider here where he belongs. Not sure why this soon-to-be-phenom is in the ninth spot and not the fourth or fifth spot. I wish the Jays could define a player’s role off the hop instead of this gradual assessment stuff. It takes no crystal ball for instance to know where Snider should be in the line up, and where he would be of most help to the team next year. Move him up in the batting order, and let him get used to hitting there now.
MW: It’s not a gradual assessment, they know what they have. It’s more, in Cito’s mind, a gradual acclimatization.
- Will, OshawaMan, that was great seeing Mr. Snider play well, minus the fielding error, but I guess we have to learn to live with that, seeing as he’s 21 years old. I really hope this guy sticks, I’m very hesistant to be excited because he played very well before he started slumping and got sent down before. If this is the future of the Jays, I think there’s a lot of good days coming for the Jays.
- MattI can’t believe I said “got” sent down, I should say “was” sent down.
My old english teacher would have ripped me apart.
MW: In baseball parlance, one gets sent down as often as one is sent down, so it’s OK.
- MattHey Michael
I thought when Rios signed his contract, it included a no-trade or at least he got to pick which teams he would allow a trade to (up to 15 teams). Now my question is, once a player is on Waivers, does the no trade in there contract become void?
MW: In that there contract? Yes.
- Brent from SarniaHey Mike,
Interesting article from the Toronto Star on Monday http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/682396. It was written the day before they called Snider back up. It says “Snider is rapidly approaching Super Two status, and his call up would present the Jays with a financial problem.
Should Snider reach Super Two status – he needs about 50 more days in the majors to qualify – he’d be able to take the Jays to arbitration a year earlier and cost the Jays millions of dollars.
But the Jays could avoid all of this by bringing Snider up on Thursday – or after. The club’s only response for now is that Snider will be summoned “soon.”"
Basically is says that if they called him up after Thursday the would not risk super 2 status. Is this true? Does this mean that they will send him back down with 2 days left in the season? Or do they not care about losing control over him a seaon earlier? Or is this article just wrong all together?
Thanks,
Jamie
MW: There was a lot of speculation as to the service time that Snider would need in order to become a “Super 2″, with many people speaking as though they actually knew what that date was, or exactly how much time Snider would need in AAA in order to avoid that. No one knows, though, they can only take their best guesses. The Jays feel comfortable that they’ll keep Snider from Super 2 status with the call-up yesterday. We won’t know until after next season, anyway.
- James SutherlandMike, although this season appears to be over from a contention standpoint, I am very excited about the Jays future with Snider, Lind, Hill as a core and the young pitching staff. I think they are very close to being a serious contender. The one thing that bothers me is how long it takes JP to pull the plug on his projects. Wilkerson/Mench last year and Millar/Delluci this year. Why he would not callup Ruiz earlier bewildering to me. Even if he droppes off 80 points avg from his AAA numbers he is still more productive than Millar. Glad he is here now. 1. Perhaps you have mentioned this but why do you think the Jays send down Accardo when he had been very successful and had the 2nd best ERA on the team? Is there an attitude issue there? 2. Do you think the Jays will increase payroll next year and if so by how much? Again I think they are only a couple players away.
MW: Both questions have been answered, check the last few comments sections.
- KenMIke, I was cued up for Jays talk on Sunday but was techno-glitched away. I was curious as to whether Brandon League had shaken off Barajas on the pitch that Zaun went deep on. Zaun clearly was sitting fastball and given that he caught League in the past I just wondered who outguessed who.
The other aspect I had hoped to discuss with you was your reponse to the first caller. I paraphrase, but you essentially said you can’t understand how the GM (or other off-field personnel)can affect your enjoyment of the game. Come on Mike, that had to be a little tongue-in-cheek wasn’t it?
Do you go to the theatre to see a decent cast with a poor director or choreographer in the hope that it won’t be too bad tonight? I don’t actually go to the theatre at all but that’s beside the point. The answer is that only the hard-core theatre goers will attend because they know they will find some redeeming aspect of interest even if the overall performance is bad.
You, clearly, are hard-core when it comes to baseball. You make your living from the game and will attend/watch/listen to every game out of some combination of interest and obligation. You will seek out those redeeming qualities.
The majority of the rest of us are not hard-core or at least not that hard-core. We are fans. We want the team to be a winning team – a playoff team. When the optimism for one season runs out you look forward to the next season and will come out to watch the prospects for next year play. You go to get a glimpse and shape your hope of what next year may bring.
What happens though when the optimism for the future, in general, looks dim? If one knows that the team has flaws but has no confidence that the GM can fix those flaws then the future would indeed appear dim. Take away a fans hope for the future and it has to impact upon their enjoyment of the game doesn’t it?
It was exciting watching Snider face Papelbon last night. The crowd near me was on the edge of their seats. Far different expectations than when it was Rios on his way to the plate with 2 out late in a tight game.
See Mike, it is all about hopes and expectations.
Actually, I have accepted that this season is meaningless now. I continue to go to games in the hope of being entertained, after all, I have already paid for my tickets. I really don’t care whether they win or lose because it just doesn’t matter. While at the game I really don’t care who the GM is or who the manager is because I no longer care whether the Jays win or lose this or any other game this year. I have completely given up hope on 2009.
Hey wait, am I seeing baseball from the Mike Wilner perspective now? From this point of complete emotional detatchment? Is this where you are coming from? I truly hope you are more of a fan than that.
MW: There has to be a greater sense of emotional detachment for me, in the position that I’m in. I can’t be up here rooting for one thing or another, other than a good game that finishes with enough time so that we can get a decent JaysTalk out of it. I don’t get this whole “meaningless” season thing, though. The goal of every season is to win a championship, of course, but only one team gets to do that. Does that mean the other 29 teams have played meaningless seasons? I mean, even if they get to the playoffs, they still don’t win. I wonder how much of that is a hockey mentality, where you almost never have even a half-decent team missing the playoffs.
- K-MikeHey Mike,
Another one run loss, but for some reason it doesn’t hurt as much as the others. That said, I was listening to the Baseball Today podcast, when you spoke with the Joe Sheehan about the Blue Jays record in 1 and 2 run games. For fun, here are the AL East records in games decided by 1 or 2 runs:
G W L
NYY 59 38 21
TB 54 29 25
BOS 55 27 28
BAL 53 23 30
TOR 58 22 36
And in games decided by 3 runs or more:
G W L
BOS 62 39 23
NYY 61 37 24
TOR 59 33 26
TB 64 35 29
BAL 66 25 41
What did the Jays do to deserve the such ire of the baseball gods? Or are the Yankees making their own luck?
MW: The better you are, the more lucky you’ll tend to be (because you’ll be in the position to be lucky more often). What did the Jays do? I’m sure a lot of people think it’s J.P.’s fault.
- Mike DMike,
I think it is far to say that atleast for the foreseeable future, the Snider era has begun in Toronto. This guy has legitimate power (last nights oppo shot) and it is going to be fun to watch him develop, hopefully into a much needed superstar.
Do you think we have lucked out with RR, and that he might pan out to be Ryan Ludwick like… Quad A kind of guy finally proving his worth?
MW: It’s WAY too early to make those judgements on Ruiz. He’s in his 9th organization, so there have been a few teams in the past who thought he couldn’t hack it in the big leagues. He’s also three years older than Ludwick was when he had his breakthrough.
- ChrisMike,
Sorry if this question has been answered a thousand times already.
Is Randy Ruiz under contract for next season? If not, how difficult will it be to retain him?
MW: Ruiz is under control of the Jays through the end of the 2015 season.
- RobMike — is there any reason, any at all, that you can think of that Kevin Millar is still on this baseball team? I know you can’t agree with keeping him around because I have listened to you for so long.
I find it amazing how the Blue Jays, with all their rational people, can fall in love with guys who are clearly past their best before dates. At least they didn’t take too long with Delucci.
MW: That’s been one of the big knocks against this administration.
- JBi know you have been very critical of Derek Jeter saying how he isnt that good. well now that he has more hits than any other shorstop in the history of the game and that he needs about 25 hits to have the hits record for the great Yankees dont you see how wrong you were saying jeter is not a great player
MW: Nope. I’ve never said that he isn’t a great player. I’ve said he isn’t a great shortstop, and I’ve said that he’s not as good as the hype around him. There’s no question that he’s a Hall of Famer, though.
- elliottI wouldn’t get to carried away with Ruiz and Snider making the Jays a much better offence.
Ruiz’s mle ops for the last two years amounts to approximately 775ops in the majors. Not much better than the major league numbers Inglet put up last year.
Snider’s LV numbers amount to an 837 ops in Toronto. Which is certainly better than what Rios is doing, but not as good as Rios put up in 06 and 07.
Having said that – Snider’s MLE at 21 is amazing.
MW: MLEs are one thing, actually doing the job in the majors is another.
- Jim MaronMike – kudos to you on the excellent use of “conflagration”.
What do you think is the over/under on # of Kevin Millar starts for the remaining 45 games ? My guess is 4.
Secondly – I’m heading to the US with my family for some vaction and will be in Boston when the Jays arrive. Thanks to StubHub I will be in the CF bleachers on Aug 30th with my wife/kids. How cool would it be to have one of our super rookies send a ball our way. In your esteemed opinion, am I taking my life in my hands wearing my Jays jersey in the Fens ?
(ps I got Godfrey last year to send me one of those rare “TC” black shoulder patches, so I may draw some questions from Sox “nationals” as they hurl stuff at me)
MW: I think Millar likely starts as often as the Jays face lefties for the rest of this season. Enjoy the game at Fenway! I don’t think they’ll be that tough on you.
- Rezmike ,i read your blog yesterday,i like the o dog,but we don’t need another weak bat in the lineup, if your goin to replace wells and overbay with players that can hit then i can see adding odog,this team needs bats to go with a pretty good pitching staff.
MW: Since Hudson left Toronto, he has hit .294/.364/.445. He’s not a weak bat.
- vince blightDo you think Snider will finish with more HR than Wells this year?
MW: No.
- Shmuel YitzchokMike, what did you mean when you said the Barret circumstaces
were extenuating?
Also, I like the idea of moving EE to 1st base. With his good hands I bet you don’t lose much defensively save for the occasional throw. Your thoughts?
Fianlly, do the Jays view Zach Stewart as a starter or reliever and how soon?
MW: About Barrett – just something I was told in confidence and on which I can’t elaborate. My thoughts are that Lyle Overbay is a better player and a better defender than Encarnacion, so I’d rather have Lyle there. The Jays view Stewart as a starter, and I’ll wager he gets plenty of action in Dunedin next spring.
- SimonMike,
I really like the discussion of possible players in your previous post. I’ve stayed away from doing that for a while because far too high of a percentage of people are not knowledgeable enough to comprehend “fair” evaluations for salaries or trades. Too many “trade Vernon Wells for Pujols” type of people.
Anyways, I think a couple players the Jays should target via trade would be Josh Willingham (Nats) or Luke Scott (O’s). Both can play the DH/LF/1B role and the Nats/O’s need pitching so there might be a fit there with someone like a Zeppy/Tallet/Mills and possibly a RP or prospect.
Aubrey Huff might be a cheaper option via free agency than Jason Bay who will get more money than I think he’s worth. I definitely want Catalanotto back as a nice bench option, replacing Millar.
Figgins and Hudson are both good options although I’m not sure if either team are compelled to let them walk. Scutaro would be nice if the Jays can ink him to something like 2yrs/$8mil but nothing more than that.
Ultimately, if everything goes right, I would like to see a starting lineup (not batting order) of:
Figgins (3B)
Scutaro (SS)
Lind (LF/DH)
Willingham/Scott (LF/DH)
Hill (2B)
Wells (CF)
Snider (RF)
Overbay (1B)
Catcher
MW: The Nationals need pitching, but the Orioles don’t, so I don’t know if there’s a fit for Scott there, and coming off a year like this I doubt the Nationals will be inclined to move Willingham. Catalanotto could have been had this spring, and the Jays weren’t interested – I’d much rather have had him than Dellucci. I like Huff, but I think that the folks upstairs want Bay more, and there’s nothing wrong with Bay at all. He also brings some speed to the table. As for Figgins and Hudson, you speak as though their current teams have control over whether they stay or go.
- JoachimMichael,
Is it just me or are there more and more Canadians coming up in MLB? If so, why do you think that is? Possibly an effect of the kids growing up with the Blue Jays in the 90′s?
Also, what do you think Randy Ruiz’s future is with the team? Can he play 1B defensively?
MW: Definitely the effect of the kids growing up with those great Blue Jays teams (and their parents). I don’t know what Ruiz’ future is. He can play first, but not well.
- Uncle BenMike, is something wrong with Papelbon? Last night he never hit more that 93, hung a few pitches and barely through his lethal splitter, and was not effective when he did.
Thanks
MW: Something certainly didn’t look right with him last night, that’s for sure.
- DerekIn response to your topic today of “most overrated”, I think Mr Bay with the Sox takes that one…if it werent for that cheat wall in the left, he’d be wells 2.0…jays better not be “intrigued” by him in the offseason, as you so claim
MW: I don’t know about that. He has a .365 obp and a .512 slugging on the road this season.
- jpmichael,
compleeetley agree with your observation re: the finish here on in potentially being fun with snider & ruiz now in the fold. add to that overbay seemingly getting more at bats & in a better spot in the order and perhaps the new 3b hopefully getting more comfortable here & reclaiming his hr stroke, of course lind & hill duking it out for the hr/rbi team title and it could be fun indeed.
and could v.w. perhaps reemerge to save some face. i would think his abundant & dutiful bashers are counting on it as a “too little too late” predictable occurrence.
btw, another hr for our own johnny bench last night michael. i take it you’re still not seeing the eery similarities, no?
MW: Eerie similarities between Johnny Bench and Rod Barajas? No, I must be missing those.
- darrell bishopMike:
I had Prime Time Sports on the other as white noise while doing some stuff and you were on.
I’m a regular listener and my wife, who likes baseball, is often in the vicinity of me listening to JaysTalk.
Anyway, so you’re on PTS and my wife, recognizing your voice, asks:
“Is that the guy from the radio who tells off the idiot people?”
Congrats, Mike. I don’t know exactly for what, but you’re now known as ‘the guy who tells off the idiot people’ around my house.
MW: Awesome.
- AdamWondering if David Purcey will be a callup on September 1st??
MW: Maybe not right on the 1st, but I expect to see him here in September.
- Jeremy PridhamDear Mr. Wilner: Thank you for the opportunity to respond to your baseball-related comments and exchanges. I found today’s discussion on “Baseball Today” of who is, or is not, overrated to be quite intriguing. As I recall the three players identified by callers as “overrated” were Vernon Wells, J.D. Drew, and Derek Jeter. Following up on points you suggested, I’d argue that for the category of “overrated” to be applicable, it must refer to a player who has acquired a significant public reputation for performance that is belied by reasonable evidence that, willfully or otherwise, has been overlooked, ignored or denied. If this is the case, then it seems to me that while Wells and (perhaps) Drew could plausibly be viewed as highly disappointing underachievers (although you made a good case that Drew’s career has been more successful than people might realize), only Jeter would qualify as a player whose reputation and record make him susceptible to the claim that he is overrated.
In this light, it’s interesting that in a column today at SI.com., Joe Posnanski argues that it’s possible to make the case that, at least this year, Jeter has been underrated. In a nutshell, he claims that Jeter’s offensive performance is comparable to that of Dustin Pedroia last year; while according to at least two of the currently fashionable statistical metrics used to measure defensive excellence — the increasingly ubiquitous UZR and the Dewan Plus/Minus system — his fielding has been better than it’s been in years and has in fact been in the upper echelon of fielding performances. I would be very interested to read your take on Posnanski’s analysis.
In any event, sorry to be so long-winded and thank you again for the opportunity to communicate with you.
Warmest regards, Phil Hansen
MW: I saw that Posnanski article, and it’s really intriguing. In my mind, it’s impossible for Jeter to ever be underrated, because so many people think he walks on water, but I’m very impressed that his defensive numbers are actually very good this season.
- Phillip HansenAnti-spam word: FASSEMBLE, meaning, “to put together really quickly.” Lol.
In your suggestions yesterday, you mentioned one scenario where Aaron Hill moves to third. I have had this thought for awhile, too.
Even if they sign Figgins, I think Hill should be at 3B. He plays a pretty good 2B, but it looks like his range is down this year. And, he is sometimes slow at turning the DP. I think it’s due to some added weight, which has turned nicely into power. So, he fits 3B base really well, especially with his strong arm.
An O-Dog signing would be a nice fit. He’s been very consistent over the past three years, and there’s no reason he won’t keep getting on like he does.
And, in NO WAY should the Jays keep Marco Scutaro. The two compensation picks are worth waaayyyyyy more than Scutaro’s future.
If Randy Ruiz keeps this up for the rest of the season, I’d like to see him platoon with Overbay next year.
I’m a little comme ci comme ca on signing Jason Bay. He could be looking for a 5-year deal, which I think is too much. Three, tops.
Your Encarnacion for Hardy idea is a great one, which I hope they pursue. It really does fit both ways. I think the Brewers would jump at the chance to get something for nothing.
All of those scenarios importantly fill the DH hole. That spot has been abysmal this season. Not bringing up Ruiz two months ago was an absolute fail!
- RomeMike…Have you ever interviewed Reggie Jackson? I met him in ’85 when he played for the Angels when he visited my place of work..Not impressed at all..If you were a pretty female wearing a tight uniform, he had time for you..For the male working stiffs, he was very aloof and arrogant when asked for an autograph. I told him that if he couldn’t be polite when a fan asks you politely for an autograph then I don’t want it and walked away.
MW: I have never met Reggie.
- chris m.The Raptors are putting the best team possible this year in order to keep their franchise player Chris Bosh from leaving them and Bryan.C has gone in that Direction.
Question: Where are the Blue Jays going? And if IF! the Blue Jays makes the playoffs next year does that mean J.P Ricardly will stay from another 10 years?
Mike love hearing you on Jays talk and do you think the Blue Jays should be moved to Vancouver? Because there the one saying Toronto is so cold!
MW: The Raptors are in a league that has a salary cap and play a game that can be won if a team has three great players – it’s an entirely different thing. Where are the Blue Jays going? We’ll find out in the winter.
- Raps FanHi Mike, haven’t commented in a while. But something I was listening to on Sunday afternoon caught my attention. It was on espn radio. They had a guy on (don’t know who) discussing the Yankees and their season thus far. A major causal factor that was identified by the guest in the segment was of course good old team chemistry. I immediately rolled my eyes but continued to listen in my car outside the grocery store. The reason I bring this up is not because I subsribe to this kind of nonsense (because obviously I don’t) but because of the comments made with regularity as to its asserted causal relationship with “winning” teams. The Yankees are performing well because of $210 000 000 at their disposal and key acquisitions such as Burnett, Sabathia, Swisher and Teixeira all working out to this point. Not to mention the resurgence in power of Damon, Jeter, Cabrera and Cano (Right field factor of new stadium perhaps for most). And the return of a more “healthy” Matsui and Posada. Its funny that I haven’t even mentioned the biggest name player on the team. Do I have to??? Moving on to the topic of discussion. The analyst proceeded to delve into the team chemistry concept and its many layers and guess what he found?? An A.J. Burnett. Oh my god! I couldn’t believe my ears. I started laughing hysterically in my car. Needless to say passing shoppers returning to their cars thought I was strange to say the least. The guest analyst continued on with his assertion and what followed can only be described as somewhat familiar in his descriptions of A.J.’s contributions to the Yankees clubhouse and the so called recipe for success that so many attribute to “team chemistry”. A.J.’s relaxed demeanor was cited as bringing a muched needed breath of fresh air into a Yankees clubhouse that was identified as previously too corporate in nature. The best example given (and my personel favorite) was the pie in the face antics after every walk off win this season. Lets just think about that for a moment shall we. I can’t help but laugh about the countless comments made here on this blog and the radio about just those kinds of actions taken by Burnett when he was a member of the Jays for the previous three seasons. The key being of course the overwhelming negative response that these same actions as a Jay generated from the fans who commented here on the blog and else where. So lets review shall we. Pie in the face as a member of the Yankees equals juggernaut of major league baseball and without a doubt causal factor for success enjoyed thus far this season. Pie in the face as a member of the Jays equals loser franchise (in the eyes of many fans, not mine) and without a doubt causal factor for failure of the team.
Can someone explain this team chemistry thing again to me because I’m really confused.
Personally I think talent (of the players), health, luck, depth and of course resources (Read MONEY) especially in the American League East are the major causal factors in putting a “successful” product on the field.
Thanks Mike for providing an environment for me and others to continue the discourse.
Take care.
MW: My pleasure, especially for comments like that!
- TroyMike, had two things happen in a minor bantam travel baseball game I was coaching last night and I have tried to find the answers online but can’t….so I figured maybe you’d know.
1) Man on 1B, hit to right center, the kid goes to 3B, hitter goes to 2B on the throw to third….runner beats the throw to third and the ball bounces near the dugout, bounces off one of the coaches who was standing in play. Umpires ruled that both runners stay at their bases, but since the ball hit a coach in play, shouldn’t they advance one base each? Umpire says it’s just a deadball….I don’t buy that, because then technically, if one of your outfielders overthrew an infielder and the ball was about to bounce to the dugout (which means the runners advance two bases), all a coach would need to do is stop the ball while it was in play, and its a dead ball and both runners stay where they are. What do you think would have been the correct call in this scenario?
Second thing….Man on 2B and 3B, 1 out, groundball to second, runner from third scores, but then both teams believe there were 3 outs (thought there were 2 outs before the play), the runner who went from 2nd to 3rd on the play jogs across the field towards the dugout, once he gets about halfway between home and 1B on his way to the 1B dugout, coach yells that there are only 2 out and to go back and touch home plate…so the kid does that. Umpires get together and rule that the kid is out because he left the basepaths, even though at that point the defensive team was already off the field. I disagreed with this, because if a kid strikes out on a wild pitch and walks back towards the dugout before he realizes the ball has gotten away, hasn’t he technically left the basepaths at that point? I have seen that numerous times with young kids.
Anyways, just wondering if you had any thoughts on these two scenarios.
MW: 1 – That does seem odd, but what seems odder to me is that one of the base coaches was in position to stop a ball that was about to roll into the dugout. I’ve never seen that come up – what was the coach doing so close? It should be a deadball, I don’t know what rule would be enforced to advance the runners. 2 – A runner isn’t out for leaving the basepath unless he does so to avoid a tag. I’d have let the run score.
- RandyHi Mike,
I agree that three starts don’t make a career or even a season.I still like Romero but we will have to wait and see.It is great to see Ruiz getting a chance and succeeding and of course we all knew Snider would eventually.Now if the Jays will just give Dopirak a chance too things might get really exciting.I can’t wait until next year with all these good young players,especially the pitchers.
MW: Dopirak and Ruiz can’t both play unless Overbay is gone, though.
- Paulhey mike what do you think about some of these names comming up come september 1st.
JP Arencibia
Joe Inglett
Brian Bullington
David Cooper(strictly for experience)
Scott Campbell(again to gain experience)
Looking forward to hearing your comments.
MW: I think we’re likely to see a third catcher called up in September, but it may well be Kyle Phillips. Arencibia has had a poor year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays feel he hasn’t earned the reward of a September call-up. Inglett will definitely be up, but I wouldn’t bet on Bullington, who isn’t on the 40-man roster (though he’s had a nice year and room on the 40 could be easily made). I think we’ll see David Purcey, Brian Wolfe, Jeremy Accardo and Dirk Hayhurst all called up, and Brian Dopirak as well.
- JasonWhy is it that when Doc was being rumored in the trade talks were all the offers in return mainly dominated by pitching prospects? JP has his faults, but one of them is certainly not drafting enough pitching. In his eight years as GM each of his drafts have been heavily dominated by pitching prospects, which is understandable because pitching is pricey to get via free agency and you can never have enough of it due to injury. But the Jays system is stocked with arms like:
Starters: Marc Rzepczynski, Reidier Gonzalez, Luis Perez, Fabio Casto, Marty McLeary, Brad Mills, Zach Stewart, Randy Boone, relievers: (tiny) Tim Collins, Daniel Farquahar, Sean Smith, Zach Dials, and current Jays pitchers: Marcum, McGowan, Litsch, Richmond, Cecil and Romero who have already produced at the big league level.
So with all of those guys already pitching well in their respected league why would the main piece of a Halladay trade be a pitcher? Why not get one or two great position players with “Snider” like potential who has already produced in the minors and then a good pitching prospect playing in A ball as the last piece of a deal. I understand that you are losing a (great) pitcher but the Jays have lots of pitchers to make up for it and all of those guys in the minors are still young. Wouldn’t it make more sense to try and fill a hole that we have like getting a future SS, 3B or maybe a catcher?
MW: I think the Jays were simply trying to get the best possible return, and most of the stud prospects turned out to be pitchers. You can always trade young pitching for young hitting, providing it stays healthy.
- RichieOh and could you give us an update on the health of McGowan, Litsch, and Marcum? I have been hearing really bad things about McGowans recovery. Losing him would be a serious blow.
MW: None of them will pitch again this year. Marcum will be 100% for Spring Training, and the Jays are hopeful, but not optimistic, about McGowan being the same. He’s recovering from knee surgery as well as surgery to repair his torn rotator cuff and debrided labrum, and his diabetes is slowing his recovery. He may not come back. Litsch had Tommy John surgery in May, I wouldn’t expect him to be back being himself before next year’s all-star break at the absolute earliest.
- RichieObligatory ‘Doc must be hurt’ post. Is it weird that a start like this one makes me appreciate Halladay even more? At least Roenicke impressed us tonight. The offense however, again failed miserably.
- RenegadeHey Mike,
I came across this article whilst listening to your “Most Overrated Player” segment on today’s Baseball Today:
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-4-188/Captain-Jetes-instead-of-Tex-.html?body=&prosaction=newpost&status=ok
I’m starting to think ESPN is stealing your material (this might be the third or fourth time this year I’ve read something that is nearly word-for-word what you’ve been preaching on your show months before).
On a related note, the comments section below the article is an excellent example of the Cult of Jeter in full, ridiculous, unreasonable force.
MW: I’ll check it out!
- BrandenThanks for answering my question Mike!
Can you answer this question do you think the Blue Jays should be moved to Vancouver? A lot of people would go there because the Memphis Grizzles left!
And how many “great” players Mike, do you have to have if you want to win a championship.
MW: In baseball? A lot more than in basketball. In hoops you only have to play the same 8-9 guys a game. I don’t think the Jays should be moved to Vancouver even a little bit.
- Raps FanMike,
I just used the coach stopping a ball from rolling into the dugout as a theoretical example….what actually happened was, we have open dugouts and the coach was standing off to the side, just outside of the open dugout and technically standing in an area that was deemed to be in play prior to the game. Had the ball not touched the coach, it would have richoceted off the wall behind him….but when it hit him, he was standing in play.
MW: So the question then becomes – what was the coach doing outside the dugout in play?
- RandyMichael,
What would you think of platooning Encarnacion with Overbay? His struggles this year have mainly been against RH pitching.
He has played some first in the past and the knock on his defense is in his throwing arm.
Together him and Overbay would roughly have a combined .900 OPS if you platoon them together.
You can then play Bautista or MacDonald at 3B, both would improve the defense and neither hits any worse than Edwin against RH.
MW: You mean this year? It’s an interesting idea, but won’t happen so long as Kevin Millar is here.
- Uncle BenHello Mike
How about going after a catcher like Kurt Suzuki?
He’s on pace to hit about 14-15 home runs and he is batting .277 with 55 rbi’s. He has 5 stolen bases and is a smart baseball player with decent speed. His catching is also above average.
What do you think?
Thanks.
MW: Sure, but he hasn’t even hit arbitration yet – it’d take a ton.
- UtimateBLUEJAYSfanMW: Your first two sentences aren’t necessary a true “if…then”.
How about using “necessarily” instead of “necessary”
MW: Yep, I should have. Like I said, I don’t proofread the comment responses.
- kitI knew reading the MLB Rule book would come in handy some day.
“2 – A runner isn’t out for leaving the basepath unless he does so to avoid a tag. I’d have let the run score.”
After reading that I remembered what the MLB rule book said and I went to go look it up.
“Rule 7.08(a) Comment: Any runner after reaching first base who leaves the baseline heading for his dugout or his position believing that there is no further play, may be declared out if the umpire judges the act of the runner to be considered abandoning his efforts to run the bases. Even though an out is called, the ball remains in play in regard to any other runner.
This rule also covers the following and similar plays: Less than two out, score tied last of ninth inning, runner on first, batter hits a ball out of park for winning run, the runner on first passes second and thinking the home run automatically wins the game, cuts across diamond toward his bench as batter-runner circles bases. In this case, the base runner would be called out “for abandoning his effort to touch the next base” and batter-runner permitted to continue around bases to make his home run valid. If there are two out, home run would not count (see Rule 7.12). This is not an appeal play.
PLAY. Runner believing he is called out on a tag at first or third base starts for the dugout and progresses a reasonable distance still indicating by his actions that he is out, shall be declared out for abandoning the bases.”
My synopsis: If the ump feels you have abandon your effort to touch the next base you are called out.
Not sure what rules they were playing but that’s the MLB rules.
MW: I’d be stunned if umpires at that level knew that rule, but that’s good research – thanks.
- KevinHis mistake I guess – it happens from time to time, what usually happens is a coach will just move out of the way if an errant throw approaches where they’re standing.
- RandyMike, re Post #50 — no-one ever asks about Robert Ray — on the DL since about May 15 with a “shoulder strain”.
Other than “forgotten man”, what is his status?
MW: He’s still on the DL, but has managed to avoid surgery to this point.
- Norm“…the Orioles don’t need pitching..” !!!!!!!
Try and tell THAT to their long-suffering fans… Geez…
MW: They don’t. Theirs is on the way.
- Kenyou did say Jeter was not a good fielder even though he won a number of gold gloves at shortstop. but i also clearly remember that a number of times you said things like if Jeter played on K.C. for example he wouldnt be considered a good player and only due to Yankee fans is he made out to be such a great player. i also remember you saying that jeter was selfish for not wanting to move to another position when A rod came to the yankees.You have always knocked Jeter but im not surprised because you hate the yankees. I think your a good baseball fan but you let your rooting interset get in the way of you having a fair take on the game. The last couple of years you said the Yankees would not make the playoffs even though they have the best team by far.You can hate the Yankees but deep down we all know you wish you were a yankee fan
MW: The Yankees didn’t make the playoffs last year, and please don’t put words in my mouth. What I said about Jeter (and continue to say and believe) was the if he had played for KC or Tampa Bay or some other also-ran team, he wouldn’t be known as a great leader. He was selfish for not letting Rodriguez – a clearly better defender – play shortstop, don’t you think?
- elliott@ Kevin….I was unaware of that rule too until I read about it last night. I don’t think the umpires should have been expected to know that. A veteran umpire in our league told me tonight that what he would have done is have the kid go back to third and have 2 outs, man on third base and just reset, since he says both teams messed up thinking there were 3 out. We wouldn’t have minded that, we were just p***d that our guy was called out.
- RandyBut it’s interesting, what that MLB rule implies….because technically, as long as you are not avoiding a tag, you could theoretically run from 1st base to right field then to 2nd base, and you should still be called safe.
- RandyMW: MLEs are one thing, actually doing the job in the majors is another.
MLE’s are as valuable as major league stats when projecting major league performance. Bill James created MLEs and he showed that they have the same predictive value of future performance as major league stats.
- Jim MaronJust for interest sake Brian Dopirak’s mle for Vegas and NH combined is 750ops
I wouldn’t expect much help from the minors in offence other than Snider
- Jim Maron