7:35 PM Eastern
Unbelievable.
Ever since the “Alex Rios claimed on waivers” story came out over the weekend, I have been answering questions and comments by saying that this is nothing new, that everyone goes through waivers at this time of year, and that guys get claimed all the time. This was no big deal, because the notion that the Blue Jays wouldn’t recall the waiver and would simply let Alex Rios go for nothing was simply absurd.
I was wrong. Really, really wrong.
It turns out that the Blue Jays evidently did see the White Sox’ claim as a”gift from the baseball gods”, as ESPN’s Buster Olney said in his initial report, and while they may not have been more than happy to simply let the Sox take on the contract, that was their ultimate decision after three days of heavy trade negotiation didn’t result in the Sox coming up with a package the Blue Jays found attractive.
The Blue Jays, in what J.P. Ricciardi spoke of as the new economic reality of the game, gain financial flexibility to the tune of $63.2 million over the next five years. $9.7 million comes off the books for 2010, and added to the $6.25 million freed up in the Scott Rolen deal, that gives the Jays almost $16 million in extra money to spend next season.
If they spend it on Chone Figgins and a terrific DH, they could be in very, very good shape for next season.
Over the last couple of days, I have been pointing out that Alex Rios is Carl Crawford with fewer stolen bases. Their career slash stats (batting average/on-base/slugging) are almost identical and both play tremendous defense. While Rios has a better throwing arm, Crawford is good for 50+ stolen bases a season, and Rios will nab 25-30.
Alex Rios has all the talent in the world and he’s just 28 years old. The Blue Jays felt as though that talent wouldn’t ever be realized and that they were better off getting out from underneath that contract while they could. I can’t agree.
I can’t imagine that the Jays wouldn’t have been able to deal Rios over the winter to a team that’s looking for a centrefielder and get some real talent back, even if they had to pick up some of the contract. The contract isn’t untenable, and I think there’s a very strong chance that the Blue Jays will really regret this move in the future.
Hopefully I’m wrong again, and they’ll re-invest the money they’ve just saved back into payroll and pick up some players who can really help them. Maybe so many of you are right and Rios will never become the player his talent suggests he can be, but I believe that cutting bait on a guy who has already been an all-star twice, is a top-10 guy in the majors in raw talent and hasn’t yet turned 30 is a mistake. Time, as always, will tell.
Sorry I didn’t post last night’s edition of The JaysTalk sooner, but there was a blackout in my neighbourhood yesterday thanks to that sensational storm. Here it is, for your listening pleasure:
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Oh, and that long-awaited softball update! I have two games to catch you up on, both wins. In the first, an ugly 0-for-4, and in the second 2-for-2 with a walk, which came in the bottom of the last as part of our walk-off win – I scored the tying run.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
117 Responses to “Rios For Nothing”
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Josh Towers was designated for assignment by the New York Yankees after posting a respectable average at the AAA level. Should the Blue Jays pick him up on the off chance he may return to form? At the very least, he’s an arm they can keep in Vegas that can throw 100+ pitches if they need a backup starter…
I’ve always liked Towers and found it really difficult watching the command slip away. Hopefully he’ll get another chance with an MLB team.
MW: I have always liked Towers, too, but I don’t see the benefit to the Jays in picking him up.
- AndrewA lot of baseball commentators agreed with you. Most notably Jeff Blair in this morning’s Globe. He made some excellent arguments as to why Rios should stay and so did you.
I was almost convinced. And I would not be surprised if Rios did turn into a superstar. The question is: would he turn into a superstar here? And I think the answer may be ‘probably not’. The time for Rios to blossom here is gone. The fans had expectations that went unfulfilled for far too long. He wasn’t popular here and he knew it. That may have factored into his game.
If he works out for Chicago, well at least he won’t go supernova in NY or Boston. And I am going to be interested to see how the notoriously short-tempered Ozzie Guillen handles our notoriously absent-minded right-fielder. Either Guillen will be the making of Rios. Or Rios will give Guillen a nervous breakdown.
Or both…
MW: It’s too convenient to say, if Rios turns into a superstar, that it wouldn’t have happened had he stayed here.
- isabella reyesI think it’s too early to tell, and I say that to you and to everyone who will come here and praise the move or come here screaming for JP’s head. It’s just too early. If Rios turns out to be much better than he’s shown and/or Rogers simply pockets the money, it’s a bad deal. If Rios turns out to decline continuously, and/or the Jays re-allocate the money wisely, it’s a good deal. I think everyone has to wait and see. I think the offseason will be more interesting now, for the Jays.
MW: As I said in the post on which you’re commenting – time will tell.
- BrendanHow much do you think this was a general manager’s decision as opposed to an owner’s mandate that the team trim some fat off the payroll?
Let’s hope this is a blessing in disguise… go Travis Snider!
MW: I think this was an organization decision, from Beeston on down, and not based on trimming payroll. They don’t even save $2 million this year.
- LeoThis is infuriating. I understand the need to dump salary, but to get nothing in return is awful. For a team struggling to attract fans (21st in the league according to ESPN) this certainly sends a fantastic message. Mike, who is ultimately responsible for this decision…Rogers? J.P? What do you think?
MW: See above. And as for the fans – didn’t everyone hate Rios?
- DanPS Aren’t we saving $12M on Burnett? $10M goes to Ryan but that was budgeted for before the Burnett deal. So don’t we have that money as well?
MW: Nope. That money disappeared when Burnett left.
- isabella reyesWell, for once I agree with you.
- david998Why couldn’t they wait for the off season when all teams in mlb would have been making offers?
For me this is one of the lowest points in blue jay history.
I now am truly concerned about their future in toronto.
Of course no matter what happens they will always have vernon wells…oy!
This quite possible is the worst baseball operations move that has come out of the Blue Jays in a long time. I never bought into the notion that upper management controlled player personal decisions but this move reeks of a salary dump that will not be put back into the team via FA this off-season.
To all those who think he is not worth a little less than $10M/year? IN his down year he is still posting an almost average OPS+ (94). Considering his value based on WAR was 18.9M and 24.6M over the past two seasons, his contract was well worth it.
- Nick The GreekI can’t agree more. Alex Rios has had some struggles this year, but I just looked at his projected stats for this season and 2 stats that jump out are 21 HR and 91 RBI. If he hits that RBI total, it would be a career high. I get as frustrated as everyone else watching big money players like Vernon and Rios whiff at the plate in big situations, but to just give this guy away and then say “It’s not from a standpoint of a financial dump, that’s not the message we’re trying to send here.” Honestly, J.P. – what do you expect us to think?
TJS
- TJSThis can’t be true, surely. Sweet mother of cheese whizz, for what it’s worth i agree surely they live to regret this.
Hi Mike,
if you remove the 27-14 start, going back to the Wakefield game at the beginning of the 0-9 road trip, what pace have the Jays been on since that date projected over a full season?
Thanks as always
MW: Since that start, the Jays are 26-43, which is a 61-101 pace over a full season.
- ukJayI was on vacation before I realised that Rolen was gone. Rios has actually played better of late no? What are we to think. Who plays outfield now?
MW: I’m assuming Travis Snider will come up shortly to play right, and Joe Inglett and Jose Bautista will share left, with Adam Lind getting occasional action out there.
- BarbAlso, doesn’t this move scream that the Jays want to contend in 2010? If they didn’t, they wouldn’t hand over Rios at his lowest value. It seems like if they didn’t want to rea-allocate the money and this was simply a salary dump, they’d wait til the offseason or next year when he presumably picks up the pace a bit.
MW: That’s a different way to see things, but that’s certainly possible.
- BrendanLet’s see if I have this right….
In the early 2008, JP Ricciardi was sniffing around looking to see what he could get in a trade for Alex Rios. There was significant interest in Rios from a number of teams, but after the Giants refused to trade Tim Lincecum for Rios, Riccardi packed up his marbles, went home, and signed Rios to a ridculous six-year, $64 million contract extension, apparently believing if he couldn’t rob another team blind in a Rios trade, he would just overpay Rios and keep him.
Now, here we are a year later, and what happens? JP decides that the contract he himself offered to Rios just one year ago is now way out of line, gives Rios away to the White Sox, and ends up getting nothing in return. Brilliant!
Will the Jays please, PLEASE get a real general manager.
- jimMike,
I’m now at a loss for words on this one… I can’t see any sort of plan with the Jays right now. All I ask is for some sort of clear direction as to where this team is headed. Are they trying to compete next year? Are they cutting payroll and rebuilding? To me, I can;t see this decision being made by Riccardi. Having an undeniable talent on a reasonable contract that other teams covet, and letting him go for absolutely nothing? not even low-end prospects? That’d a fireable offense in my mind, and that’s why I can’t see Riccardi making this decision.
So Mike… what can Jays fans look forward to next year? I think the fans need answers.
MW: Depending on how that money is re-invested, fans may be able to look forward to a better team. Remember, although Rios is an undeniable talent (though I disagree that he was coveted by many other teams at that contract- they did try to trade him), he was a below-average offensive performer this season. He currently ranks dead-last among qualifying A.L. right fielders in OPS, at .757.
- KevinMike would you let Carl Crawford minus 30 stolen bases walk for nothing… ouch.
That said, isn’t Figgins a rather injury prone player to add as your main net gain for this money to an injury riddled team.
MW: Figgins has had some injury issues the last two season, but not this one, and maybe if they get him out of the infield he won’t get hurt as much. He did have 148+ games played in 2004, ’05 and ’06, and is on pace to do it again this year.
- Doug S.Mike,
Are you telling me that no team would give us each a low level prospect for Rios? I understand not wanting to take on a contract but this is ridiculous! I can’t believe the Jays these days. This is so stupifying that I am sure the even Jp wouldn’t have done this unless under pressure from Rogers. DON’T TELL ME THIS ISN”T A SALARY DUMP! I am done with the Jays!
MW: Bye.
- SalHi Mike. I’m in total agreement with your post and extremely disappointed that the Jays let Rios go for nothing. I can’t think of a single way that this makes the team better for now or in the future.
MW: I’ll give you a few: 1 – It allows the Jays to get a potentially average-or-above bat into the line-up in right field in Travis Snider. 2 – It gets another left-handed bat into the line-up on a regular basis. 3 – It reduces by 25% the number of players in the regular line-up who simply refuse to walk. 4 – The money saved allows the Jays to address other needs.
- ZackMike,
one of the big issues is to try and convince the Blue Jays faithful (those of us that remain) that the current regime (Rogers) is not deliberately dumping salary to make the team more attractive for sale. Think of the above salaries plus what would have been $12 million or so for Burnett if he stayed. A lot of savings with no tangible investment into the ball team and potentially an off season deal of Halladay? This is a public relations disaster unless Beeston or someone for Rogers speaks up for Pete’s sake!
MW: But don’t a lot of the fans have a problem with ownership?
- RonRios was possibly the best defensive OF in baseball from 06-08. He had 2 seasons with an OPS above .850 and last year was at .798. If you think this is a good move to get rid of a “big contract”, you are stupid. If you think this has anything to do with JP, you are stupid. This has everything to do with a awful ownership that blatantly and openly says they don’t care about the team and only about their revenues.
BTW… You should go back to the minors after your 0 for 4..
MW: But if I had, I wouldn’t have gone 2-for-2 the next game and scored three runs in a game we won by one.
- MikeJust wanted to say I can’t wait till the post game show tonight. For the last few seasons most people have been ripping on Ricciardi and this will be sure to fuel the fire. And for the last few months people have been wanting to get rid of Rios and Wells.
- JoeSo now that he got rid of Rios people will rip on him for getting nothing in return. Although I agree the Jays may have been able to get something for Rios in the off season, if Rios play stayed the same or took a turn for the worse than his value would drop would it not?
At least this way the Jays have a few more dollars to play with. And if they spend it right a lot can work out in the Jays favour. Maybe picking up the right people will be enough to get Halladay to say I may just give this another year
Lets get one thing out of the way, its not a salary dump if they spend the money somewhere else, which they wont
Alex Rios had a tough year, he had baserunning gaffes and that video on youtube where he flipped off those fans and that kid. and he was also a guy with legit 20-20 potential and a cannon of an arm, sure he might have been a little bit of a jerk but that doesnt really bother me
the real loser in this is the city of toronto and the winner is alex rios and the chicago white sox
best of luck alex you will have a great career
Now lets all head down to the dome and see the Toronto Pirates
MW: I guarantee you they’ll spend the money elsewhere. I’d be stunned – even moreso than I am by the fact that Rios was allowed to walk for nothing – if the payroll drops next season.
- Alan PeransonMike,
As you have pointed out so many times, all teams expose their rosters to waivers every year. However, I can never remember a player as young as Rios who was signed to a contract as big as his being just let go to another team for no compensation. Has this ever happened before in the history of baseball? What is the next closest example you can think of?
Also, a few weeks ago, a guy asked you a number of questions and you forgot to answer one of them. I thought it was a good question, so please answer it now. He asked who the players were that the Dodgers were going to trade the Jays for Delgado until he turned the trade down. Do you happen to know this?
MW: I don’t. That stuff is all rumour anyway. I can’t think of an example even close to this as far as August waivers are concerned.
- JasonHey Mike,
I totally agreed with you as you commented about this developing (what I thought was a “non”) story… and I totally agree with you now.
It would be nice if the BJs reinvested the money from this salary dump (I know JP hung a bow of “financial flexibility” or something around it but if you give up a player for nothing, how is it anything but a dump?) and what they would’ve payed GBOAT next year. I hope they do it but I’m not holding my breath.
I’ve never been a huge Rios fan (always liked him but hoped for more these last two years), nor have I been a JP hater in the least, but this giveaway seems crazy to me!
If they make some good signings in the off-season I’ll be happy to be proved wrong, but this seems to me like they’re in rebuilding/salary dumping/payroll cutting mode. I know they aren’t saying it but it seems very believable (if not sadly inevitable) that sometime in December or January there will be a new press release saying that they’re going to stand pat, develop the kids and go for it in 2011. We’ll have Hill, Lind, Snider and some hopefully coming into their own young pitching, but we’ll lose Doc (I mean “we” as in us fans), the Jays will be paying through the nose for an aging V-Dub, and they’ll slog through it with the Menchersomillatistas of the world filling in more than we’d like.
If they reinvest (and do it well), this will have been an okay move by JP. If they don’t, I assume it will be because of Rogers (a reign in the payroll thing)… in which case it’s not JP’s fault.
Still, I WANT to be mad at JP for this! I think the move was dumb and I want someone to blame if (and I’d bet, when) Rios is all-star again and the Jays don’t even have a bag of balls to show for it.
I’m not going to stop following the Jays (I’m way too addicted to baseball for that to be an option) but PLEASE… give me something to hang on to. What is there to look forward to for fans of this club that keep getting promised contention year after year? Hill and Lind are great and will probably be even greater, but…
Sorry Mike, this was my very first negative post. At least it was rational and reasonable… I think.
MW: It was. See above for the hope thing.
- SiguyHi Mike,
- PaulI have to give you credit you did a good job of eating crow on your no waiver deal prediction.You may be right about Rios finally coming through as the player many thought he would be.That will be when we know if the Jays made a mistake.I think like you that he would make a fine CF for the Jays but I’m not sure that it is wise for a team with their salary budget to put all their eggs in one basket with two or three players like Ryan,Wells,Rios,Rolan and Delgado in the past.I would rather see them spread the money around more and there is where they now have to come through and spend what they save from the Rios contract wisely to improve the team.The jury is still out.
Mike
I had enough of J.P. Ricciardi. I have been patient with him and at times defended him, but this Rios waiver claim did it for me. Thats all I have to say for now.
- FrancisMr Wilner
I think JP is starting to see the light in what the jays need to do in moving forward.
Moving Rios out for nothing was a godsent for the jays to get out of that contract as it gets into the meat of the money owed in 2010 and beyond.
I think Vernon’s contract had alot to do with this move. JP will never be able to move that horrible contract so money elsewhere must be found to shed salary off the overall payroll.
Rios and Rolen make up Vernon’s salary next year give or take a million in salary. Now jays fans can get all warm and cuddly seeing number #10 go 1-4 with 2 k’s a game and a overall year of hitting 260, with a 310 obp and if their lucky, 15 -20 home runs a year. Not bad for 21 million a year.
Letting rios go was another move i predicted JP and the jays would do and it has come to reality.
I must say im shocked JP couldnt even get back some bases and a batting helmet for him.
I will be interested to see if you keep defending JP’S moves or get on board with the rest of the baseball world and call for JP to be removed as GM.
If you believe the jays will go after a figgins or other star studded talent in free agency dream on. the team is still on the hook for BJ ryan and his 15 million. I think the jays will start operating more like the pirates than the yankees, angels, and red sox to name a few
Being a farm team to other major league teams isnt so bad.
MW: This is the first “farm team” type move the Jays have made, and I don’t expect to see any more.
- mark in caledoniaI’m trying to not be a negative person but I truly believe that the Blue Jays management feel that they are better off being a non competitive team with a 55-70 million dollar payroll then a non competitive team with a payroll of 80 million. They will not sign Chone Figgins or a terrific DH. Whether or not Furcal and Ibanez wanted to come here last season, the team didn’t even make an attempt to sign those 2 or anybody else. To be truly competitive, they would not only have to sign Figgins and a DH, but also a catcher and a 1st baseman. In addition to that they would have to sign Halladay to an extension and not have a problem having a payroll in the 125-140 million dollar range. They are not willing to do that so what sense does it make to go half a***d and have an 80 million dollar payroll. Rogers can accomplish the same things with a 55-65 million dollar payroll and those things are marketing the Rogers brand. THEY WILL NOT REINVEST THE MONEY THEY SAVED ON RIOS AND ROLEN. Encarnacion plays third base, Overbay plays 1st because it’s hard to move a platoon player making 6 million, and Snider and Lind will play in the outfield. The SS and DH positions will be filled with minor patchwork free agents.
MW: See above. The Jays made a very strong play for Furcal this off-season. Why do they have to sign Halladay to an extension to be competitive next season?
- DomenickI couldn’t agree more. I think JP has been listening to his critics. From Lincecum to nothing. I know it is a different time, but what a drop. I’m flabbergasted. And he will be excellent in the years to come – a star. I hope he is – I know I’ll be cheering for him.
I have been defending JP for a long time now, but I no longer can. He had better at least be able to use that money in the off season.
Wow.
- DarrenDo you honestly believe the Jays will sign Chone Figgins and a DH in the off season or even try? You probably don’t recall but I predicted the Jays would go 5-11 against the AL East sandwiched around the break and that’s exactly what they did (and they had to take 2 out of 3 from Boston at the end to do it). Here’s another fearless prediction – not one dime will be spent on free agents before next season.
Hey play the kids, I’m cool with that. We’re now officially a development team for the big boys anyway. Welcome to the realities of a small market team even though Toronto is one of the largest media markets in North America. At least Pittsburgh’s got the Steelers and Penguins, what do we have?
MW: Sigh.
- Rob TheriaultI was as surprised as you at the Rios dump. This one I can’t lay at the feet of JP Ricciardi. I view this as a complete organizational failure.
- tim grafThis move is more befitting the Pittsburgh Pirates or KC Royals. I deliberately omit the Marlins as they at least seem to have a plan that results in post season appearances one in a while.
I can’t share your optimism about what the Jays will do with their new found financial resources.
To regain the faith of the fans, the organization will have to first have to lay out a credible plan to create a modicum of hope and then deliver.
Mike, I’m no fan of Rios and hope this is JP`s last big move before he`s shown the door as well. This move I think had to be made however because of Vernon. The team could not risk having to pay 2 non-producers in the outfield earning in excess of $25M for the next 6 years. There is the chance that both contracts would not be moveable in trades. If it was Rios alone, they probably don`t make this move. Perhaps this will be the wake-up call Vernon needs.
Regards,
MW: You’re correct – if not for the Wells deal, Rios doesn’t get let go.
- MarvinHi Mike,could you explain how a position player would be awarded a Gold Glove,what is the requirements and who decides,also how many are awarded per league?
Thanks
MF
MW: One is awarded per position per league, and it’s voted on by major league managers and coaches.
- Manny FriasHey Mike,
I am trying to stay reasonable and rational, but I have spent years watching this team and rooting for bad teams. I can remember have my wisdom teeth removed in 98 and being excited about having a good excuse to park myself in front of the television and watch the Jays. That said, I was content and optimistic (not really sure why) but I can’t remember ever feeling so down about a move the Jays have made or their direction. Maybe I am suffering from the recentitis you describe, but it just seems that move after move (Rolen trade not included) have been had for a fan to take rationally and reasonably.
Starting to ramble here, but I can remember being worried that Snider’s call up last August would hurt the team – that if he did well the team wouldn’t go out and sign the big DH that you and many fans said they needed last year. I am just worried that they will spend the same way they did this past off season. Mike, do you think the team is on the verge of losing a lot of support? Do you think most fans like myself will keep coming back? Mike, please give me something to be positive about….but give me something other than lots of young talented pitchers because that is no longer working.
Love the blog, loving the team less and less.
MW: Hey, 95% of the fans wanted Rios gone before today, now he’s gone and people are doing the whole rending of garments thing. It’s not just you, but I really don’t get it. It’s also been a good four years since you’ve rooted for a bad team.
- ColinI dont even think this was JP’s move. this has beeston’s toe prints all over it. I heard jason bay was asking 14 mil and boston offered 10 mil. I would rather have bay for the next 5 years.
MW: I’d rather have the left-handed version.
- zepHi Mike,
I’m surprised that you’d only look at their slash stats. If you were to compare Crawford and Rios a little more carefully, you’d see that Crawford has 1250 hits in just over 1000 games, while Rios has 875 hits in roughly 800 games. Isn’t that significant?
Also, wouldn’t you agree that Crawford is counted on as a speed guy with some power moreso than a true power hitter for his team, whereas Rios is counted on as a power guy with some speed. I think it is difficult to make the argument that Crawford and Rios perform roughly the same – because Rios struggled to fill his role here and Crawford has filled his with considerably greater success.
That being said, it’s tough to believe the Blue Jays got nothing for Rios – not even a draft pick. That’s a hard pill to swallow, especially after being forced to watch him struggle.
Go Jays go!
MW: I don’t think the hit totals are that significant when Rios’ on-base and slugging percentages are both higher. I don’t think that Rios was even counted on as a power guy with some speed, I think he was seen as a guy from whom serious power was expected to develop and it really didn’t.
- MattMike,
2 for 2 with a walk….are you serious? Tell me you don’t “work the count” in slo-pitch…it is slo-pitch you play right? Come on, that’s crazy…hit the dang ball man…..!!!
Hopefully Alex can sort out his issues in Chicago and Toronto can use the extra money for some help next year…..
Swing the bat Mike….swing the bat early, swing the bat often….keep the game rolling along…..allow the carbon nanotubiculation to do its thing…..don’t bend your knees too much like that former Jay, Alex Rios…they’ll “run you outta town” man…..
Go Jays…
MW: It was my first walk of the year, and it came with me hitting second in the inning, representing the tying run, behind a guy who had walked on four pitches.
- 1DJJAYI really can’t believe this either Mike. Since J.P. and the Rogers’ brass decided they would let Rios go, I find it really hard to believe that Ricciardi couldn’t get ANYBODY in return from the Sox. I hope the Jays don’t regret this 2-3 years down the line either, if/when Rios becomes a 3/4/5 time allstar.
MW: The Jays couldn’t get anybody in return without picking up some of the money.
- JoeHey Mike love the show(s), blog, etc.
“Maybe so many of you are right and Rios will never become the player his talent suggests he can be…”
Maybe Ozzie Guillen can help Alex to realize his full potential, I guess we’ll see.
I have a question, one that occurs to me as I watch tonight’s game: what happens if a hitter is ejected before he finishes his plate appearance, say, on a 1-1 count? Is he out? Or does someone else resume his at bat?
MW: Someone else finishes the at-bat.
- Terry BradleyMW: It’s too convenient to say, if Rios turns into a superstar, that it wouldn’t have happened had he stayed here.
And if he does work out, it’s just as convenient , surely, to say that he would have done equally well with the Jays. Scutaro is on record as praising Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace for the improvement in his batting. He is doing better here. Would he have done as well somewhere else? I guess we’ll never know.
In any case, I strongly suspect that the bean-counters down at the Evil Empire were in charge of this decision. They’d seen enough money spilt and wanted to put a stop to it. When Chicago claimed Rios they saw an ideal opportunity and took it. If the money saved is used to help the team I will be thrilled.
- isabella reyesIs it possible that Rios might fulfill more of his potential in another setting, with different manager and coaches? Should he blossom as a White Sox (Sock?), it doesn’t mean he would have succeeded as a Blue Jay.
It seems that some players are more influenced by and dependent on surrounding circumstances than others are, which helps explain why some hitters and pitchers improve and others decline when they encounter different coaches. Of course, the great ones succeed regardless.
- kateMichael,
Isn’t this ultimately a result of Vernon’s contract?
Rios’s contract wasn’t outrageous.
(I’m not mad at Vernon, if I was in his spot I would have taken the contract too and I’m sure he wants to perform better.)
With Vernon’s defense declining and Rios gone, who is going to take over in CF?
MW: Vernon has to play centre for the Jays to get any kind of value out of that contract. This is ultimately a result of Wells’ and Ryan’s contracts gone bad, yes.
- Uncle Benhi mike really enjoying the hockey central at noon baseball edition. i usually agree with you but not on alex rios. my guess is that letting rios go has little to do with ability and more to do with coachability (none, according to the few cito soundbites ive heard), and mental toughness to be a winner. and this sort of segues to my next thought. today you were discussing some of the dismal stats on the 93 world series team, like pat borders and joe carter, but, but!!, in my opinion, great players, in any sport, are great not because of the number of hits,saves,catches, but WHEN they make them. marty brodeur is the greatest because he makes a great save at critical times. joe carter may have hit .260 , but im sure when runners needed to be cashed in, he did. that 93 team had very timely hitting from what i remember. this current jays team has considerable talent, but the unwavering intangible they are missing is timely hitting.
MW: Carter definitely hit better with RISP in ’93 than he did the rest of the time. He was .273/.345/.513 with RISP compared to .254/.312/.489 overall.
- kevin inglehartHi Mike,
I wonder how Roy Halladay feels about the Rios move? Probably wishes he was in Philadelphia I imagine.
I know you disagree with me, but I think JP really screwed up by not trading Roy for a decent package and now I think he’s screwed up by not trading Rios for something either a few years ago, this year, or the upcoming off season. I just don’t think making major trades is his forte….for whatever reason.
I am pretty sure this will be his last year with the team. I find it ironic that he started off his tenure with the Jays chopping payroll and looks like he’s going to finish by doing the same thing.
MW: I wonder if, in fact, Halladay might not be happy about this development.
- OzRobI have had a season pass since 2005 and try go to at least 1 game out of each series. Rios has been my favourite since then. I don’t agree with this move at all and had felt relief over your comments that you thought there was very little chance that Rios would leave. Just so you know, I think many of the Rios haters were just the loudest. I saw many, many Rios jerseys and fans even as late as this 92-93 team reunion weekend. Sorry…not much baseball talk here…just a really disappointed fan who truly believed and listened to others claim that Rios was part of the future.
MW: He was. But now he isn’t.
- BelMike,
It is JP’s job to understand how the economic realities of the game are changing. What a bogus excuse – he should just admit the contract was a mistake. Instead he covers it up with circumstances as if “nobody could have predicted” – well I do not see other teams unloading contracts 12 months after they’re signed – sure, a few years down the line perhaps. there is nothing JP has done to distinguish himsels as anything other than a poor GM…I’m sure this will help Roy H. want to stay even more now? He waited too long to trade him as well. The guy is a joke as a GM – might be a great guy, but he’s butchered this team. You talk about reinvesting the $ – but where do you get another RF from? You have money now, but no right fielder? Figgins is the exact type of mistake JP will make – he’ll be 33 next year – and injury prone players tend to be more injury prone in their mid-30′s…I just wish he’d go away. I know you’ll defend him Mike – but he’s been a terrible GM…terrible.
MW: He really hasn’t.
- Gary“Rios was possibly the best defensive OF in baseball from 06-08.”
Hyperbole.
MW: Or the truth. Let the numbers decide.
- Terry BradleyOkay, my last post was hyperbole and emotional ranting but let’s assume the Jays sign Chone Figgins and a DH for next season. Don’t you still need a catcher and a shortstop? And who’s to say that that Marcum, Litsch et al will be effective at the major league level after major surgery or that the pitching staff won’t resemble a M*A*S*H* unit again next year. There are a whole lot of “ifs”.
MW: There will always be a lot of “if”s until the Jays decide to spend with the big boys.
- Rob TheriaultHey mike,
Read a lot of articles and opinion on the Rios deal, they all seem to say JP and the jays are big winner.
I like to ask what happened to the no trade clause 09-10 in his contract. Did he approve the trade ?
MW: It wasn’t a trade, he was claimed on waivers.
- johnMike, I agree with you completely. Rios could have improved his play over the last couple of months, increasing his value. The Jays could have then moved him in the Winter for at least a couple of prospects. Really, if Wells’ contract isn’t signed, Rios is probably the Jays CF for the next 5 years. It’s a shame it has come to this.
- TimMW: Rios’ contract pays him $69.75 million over seven years. That’s an average of just under $10 million per year.
mike, what difference does it make what the “average” is. the decision to trade rios was based on how much money he was owed which was 60+ mil
MW: Context, please.
- zepBlue Jay fans show pray to their respective God(s), that Jim Ballisle gets frustrated in attempts to join the NHL owners dysfunctional family, and turns his sights on acquiring the Jays…Rogers Centre becomes Blackberry Park..Why not give Randy Ruiz 2 months to see if he’s a cheap replacement for Rios (Snider in RF, Lind in LF, the stiff in CF)
- CraigHow many games has Jerry Howarth called consecutively. I know it is not near 4306 of Tom Cheek.
MW: I don’t know, but I know he hasn’t missed a game since I went into the booth in 2002.
- ShakeelWasn’t rios’s fault that they gave him that big contract. May have been a bad decision but they had to correct that and they did. good move. He will not have any more all star years we have seen his best. The money saved is worth it.
- dave_12do you believe in such a thing as a guy being a “clutch hitter” (opposite of Vernon)..and if so what stat would most effectively measure who the best clutch hitters are..to you acknowledge there’s a shortage of said (clutch hitters) on this team? unrelated questions why does this organization no longer have Latin players in the organization? answer JP believes they don’t have the plate discipline or draw the walks he so dearly covets…doesn’t that make JP a racialist?
MW: I don’t believe that there’s such a thing as a clutch hitter, and I don’t believe that JP is a racialist. You should ask Rod Barajas, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Angel Sanchez, and others on down the line about the fact that the Jays no longer have any latin players.
- Craigmike, you said rios isn’t declining. his obp has dropped significantly the past 2 years
MW: If I said he isn’t in decline, I meant that he’s not in a decline out of which he won’t be able to come out.
- zepGood move for Rios. Guillen will not be afraid to light a fire under his you know what when he needs it. And he can do it in Rios’ mother tongue as well!!
- SteveJust heard your intro to Jays Talk and then came here to see your take on the Rios trade. Your intro made it seem as though we are going to be hypocrites for saying Ricciardi has to go and Rios has to go. But while I give you kudos for admitting you predicted exactly the opposite would happen in very strong terms, you miss that some people may have wanted Rios gone AND think Ricciardi needs to go. I personally lean toward thinking Rios is an enigma and there is as good a chance the Jays will regret this as that they will look like they got rid of a guy and a contract they needed to move. But to let him go for nothing? I will say it again through you refuse to concede it; Ricciardi is over his head and poorly suited for this job. Ricciardi has had more than a chance, I am not a fan, he has done some good things particularly with bringing along pitchers, but it is time to move him too. His comments justifying this are a little much: new economic realities? The contract is one year old Mike! And as far as I have heard, there is no evidence that Rogers is tightening the purse strings. No, Ricciardi either made a mistake with the contract in the first place, or he made a mistake today, or both. And I still maintain that he screwed up the Halladay affair by talking too much about it and hanging Roy out to dry. I don’t think you have ever dealt with that aspect of a GM’s job. I know you love the stats but it is not all numbers Mike.
I just don’t understand your allegiance to J.P. Conflict of interest maybe? Has anyone ever asked how that works for you? What is the influence of Rogers and the Jays where you and the rest of the Fan 590 crew come in? NOT an accusation. Just a question.
Thanks for the show and the blog though and I do learn a lot from you.
MW: There’s no allegiance to JP, just an allegiance to the truth. There is NO influence from Rogers as to what I can or can’t say. Also, honestly, you don’t believe there’s a new economic reality over the last year?
- WilliamMike,
I’m not the biggest JP hater in the world but isn’t a move like this just an indictment of himself? JP really has to go at the end of the season simply by virtue of the moves that HE has made that HE eventually had to recant on. Hinske – big contract, traded for 25 cents on the dollar. Thomas – big contract, released. Ryan – big contract, released. Rios – big contract, waived. Wells – HUGE contract, would be traded/waived etc. at any drop of the hat. (On top of those, he released both Chris Carpenter and, to a lesser extent, Jayson Werth.) Doesn’t the fact that he created these horrific contractual situations and then had to dump these players (minus Wells) for absolutely nothing in return just to get out from under the deals mean that JP, no matter what else he has done, must go?
MW: He didn’t release either Carpenter or Werth. He also signed Wells to a great contract at the same time that he signed Hinske to the one that didn’t work out, he signed A.J. Burnett to a good contract and he got Roy Halladay to forgo free agency twice.
- AaronHey Mike,
Do you believe that this is a convenient salary dump or do you believe that the Jays will actually replace the salary over the off season? Unless there was something clubhouse/character related with Rios then giving away homebred talent like him for nothing seems like it can only be a salary dump.
Also when you compare Crawford to Rios are there stats for Avg,HR,RBI,RISP etc for the late innings within close games. I listen/watch parts of about 100 games a year and it seems as though when the game is on the line Rios strikes out or flies or grounds out weakly way more often than not (as does the other who callers lump together with Rios for your pleasure). Those are the important stats that I never hear discussed.
MW: For their careers in “late and close” situations: Rios – .289/.336/.414, Crawford – .261/.312/.376. As for your first question, why are those two things mutually exclusive?
- ZedMike – I love the show. I listen to be ahead of the curve. As a batter has to guess (often) at the incoming pitch so must the commentator tell us whats coming. You went down swinging. Richard Griffen and Bob Elliot of the print media often can predict what going to happen. Are your hands tied? Do you have to spout the company line? I can understand that Jerry’s role is to describe what happens without a lot of commentary. But you are a comemtator. Perhaps you fear what happened to Ashby in Houston. I love sports but I also love journalism. The fun of sports is that it is treated with dead seriousness, as it should be. Many of us live and die with every pitch. So PLEASE give us the facts as you know them. Lying or misdirecting to Jays fans is like Richard Nixon lying to the American public. If you were as caught by surprise with the Rios deal, as the rest of us were, that is because of a) you do not have the ear of JP as you purport to have b) you are ordered to not know. Just as Hill or A-Rod guesses correctly on the location of a pitch how ’bout you give fans some real insight and predict what will happen before it happens – try being a journalist instead of a marketer!
MW: I don’t understand this. You think that I would be so adamant that something wasn’t going to happen if I knew that it was? Your comment makes no sense at all.
- Daniel MartinMike,
Can you, when the jays are back in town, ask Halladay what he thinks of the Rios move? I’ll be googling in the meantime to see if he has any quotes on it.
I’m expecting a no-comment comment, but would be curious to see how Halladay views this move.
Do you think he would be consulted on moves of this signficance? Maybe consulted is the wrong word, but maybe ‘Hey Doc, we’re thinking of doing this, just thought you might want to know’…it does happen in other sports with a select few marquee players, don’t know if it is applicable here or not.
Cheers
MW: I don’t think it’s applicable here, nor do I believe that Halladay would ever comment on the record about this move.
- AK47Mr Wilner
Above you replied by saying that this is the first farm team type of move the jays have made in regards to rios and will not occur again. I have to argue this point.
The jays are in salary dump mode or financial flexibility or whatever other name JP can call it.
Moving out Ryan, Rolen and rios is nothing more than dumping salary. JP must thi nk the fans of toronto are idiots as he is quoted as saying rios was not a salary dump.
last time i looked when you let a player go for nothing its a salary dump.
Being a white sox fan i couldnt be happier to get a guy like rios for nothing.
Time will tell the story on this one, but this is a no win for jays management.
The fans are smarter than JP gives them credit. Next home stand will tell the tale as leg room at rogers centre just got alittle more spacious with the absence of more fans.
JP and rogers have a plan alright. Lessen the fan base. Give your face of the franchise players away for nothing and offer up lies, ie:”this is not a salary dump” when doing so.
MW: So, when are you going to argue the point I made?
- mark in caledoniaAs a fan it’s hard to accept seeing the team’s 2nd or 3rd most talented positional player go for nothing. I can’t imagine Halladay being interested in resigning with Jays, as this isn’t the most “competitive” move. I’d truly love some full out honesty on the teams direction and payroll, today I feel like a Pittsburgh Pirate fan. I know there is a flip side to the coin, but that is my gut reaction, disappointment and pessimism.
MW: A Pittsburgh Pirate fan would be doing back-flips over three straight winning seasons with a decent shot at a fourth.
- ClintAny chance that they could use some of their saved money to bring Delgado back as a DH?
MW: I hope not.
- Doug S.Mike,
I think the plain and simple truth is that *if* Rios was playing CF instead of RF, no way JP lets him go because the market for CF even with Rio’s subpar season makes him valuable. He’s still projected to hit 21 HRs 91 RBIs, 37 2B, and 28 SB in this “bad” season. Right now, Rios is tied for 8th in the AL in OF RBIs and 12th in OF HRs.
Also, Rios is due about $11.74 mil average over the next 5 seasons. I think Rios is worth the money if he can hit .280, 25-28HR and 100 RBIs (even as a RF while playing good defence) which I am sure he will once he gets to ChiSox.
- JoachimMichael,
If you were in JP’s shoes and you could go back in time in your delorean and fix one mistake would you either not sign BJ Ryan or would you have traded Wells at his peak value and moved Rios into CF?
MW: I would have traded Wells.
- Uncle BenWas it Adam Dunn that JP received a lot of flack for because he was forthright in his view of how he approached the game?
I wonder if JP thought there was some Adam Dunn in Alex RIos?
MW: It was Adam Dunn, and J.P. may have felt that way about Rios. But if he did, why didn’t he feel that way a year and a half ago?
- Ed in TorontoDo you know how much longer Snider has until he can be called up with starting his FA a year early?
MW: It has nothing to do with free agency, it’s arbitration, and I would have guessed that they could call him up now and be safe.
- Doug S.With the new economic enivironment, we all realize that Rios is currently overpaid for some OK numbers. If they dump the salary and reinvest the money, they will probably get a lot more in return. Last year, Bobby Abreu signed for $5 million a year. Would Toronto fans be happy if we got TWO Bobby Abreus for ONE Alex Rios. How about TWO Orlando Hudsons? I hope so.
I think it’s a smart move. Will JP look like a star? Maybe, maybe not. But I think it’s a valid enough perspective to at least create two sides to the debate.
Most Toronto “fans” just complain about every single move that JP makes without thinking it through. Ricky Romero over Troy Tulowitski? Looking a little better now isn’t it? (tonight’s game aside) Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus? Looking pretty good as well. Shea Hillebrand for Jeremy Acardo? Golden. Scutaro for two nobodies? Ditto.
If they reinvest the money smartly, it’s a good move. If they don’t, then it probably wasn’t JP’s move to make in the first place.
Everyone who’s complaining… take a breath. Check back in January.
rt
- ronMaybe I’m reading too much into JP’s comment at the press conference but I’m worried about his reference to using the Rios savings to fill the need for a Catcher and SS. That really worries me because I feel strongly that Scutraro should stay and be a part of our 2010 run.
Mike your position on Scutaro is well documented on this blog. I do not agree that he will decline next year. I also think it is significant that he and Hill have made such a strong tandem in the middle and play well together. That is worth a lot.
I beleie you when you say the Jays will NOT simply pocket the payroll savings. I want to see them go after a strong 3B FA like Figgins. I also have no problem with the excellent defense from Barajas and Chavez at C. I love the contribution Chavez is making on defense.
MW: On what do you base your contention that Scutaro won’t decline next year?
- Rezoops sorry Mike I didn’t mean to say Scutaro should be part of “our” 2010 run. I meant the Jays run. What can I say, I loves me my Jays.
- RezRios doesn’t play the game with enough passion and I bet you that was the tipping point. On one side you got the hugh contract , on the other side you have raw talent and potential. If Rios showed more urgency in his game he would still be here today.
MW: That’s not true.
- SteveI think its all about money. Which is the ultimate truth about any professional sport, but kinda sad, in a way.
I think JP might actually be letting his contract run out. I believe he is also signed to the end of 2010 yes? I imagine he shuffles the deck in the off season, deals pitching for younger bats, and then, at the end of the year, becomes a ‘free agent’ himself. I’m sure there will be a bottom of the heap team like KC or Washington that will see his ability to pick pitching up off the scrap heap as a huge boon.
Rogers is hurting as a corporation right now, most of their divisions losing money, so their interest in a successful baseball franchise is about as close to zero as it has ever been. JP is handcuffed by an ownership that I personally don’t belive has outlined a clear objective for the franchise.
The Jays have a bucket of starting pitching, even with injuries factored in, there’s a whole green starting rotation without a place to play by the time next April rolls around.
I think the Rios contract was signed when the Jays thought they could spend and compete with the Red Sox, maybe try to be a little younger, or a little smarter. The Rios and Hill contracts fit into the mold of locking up young players at expected market value. Clearly, some expectations have changed. I don’t think that’s JP’s fault, I think its the hand he’s getting dealt.
What a rambling rant. What I’m saying is, I’m surprised, but it reflects a franchise with no long term plans. Which, it would seem, is the Blue Jays in a nutshell.
MW: Didn’t Rogers make a pretty sizable profit last year?
- Greg WHi Mike,
Moving Rios is brilliant. I listened to your broadcast tonight and Although I agree that Rios played well in 06 and 07, this is 09. His value has dropped off considerably but his cost has increased dramatically. I am not sure what two playoff games are worth, but the Sox just invested 69 million dollars in the possibility of catching Detroit. This move will enable the Jays to sign a reasonable DH or to re-sign Doc.
MW: It had better allow them to sign a lot more than that.
- Brian ShugarHi Mike,
Do you think J.P made this decision? I’m inclined to think he went to ownership, advised them that a trade couldn’t be worked out and was told to let him go.
To be honest I’m more interested to see if the Jays sign their early round draft picks, with the deadline next week. The 2 million saved on Rios this year could go right back into players, which would be a good thing.
MW: I’m sure the Jays will sign the vast majority of their draft picks. The way J.P. looked and sounded at the news conference, I can’t imagine that the move was his idea.
- Chris PSince it was JP who offered the contracts to both Rios and Wells, I don’t see how he can avoid taking the blame for having to let a first round draft pick (Rios) go for nothing. Had he signed more realistic contracts (when was Wells ever worth a $20M/yr stipend), he could be TRADING a Wells and/or Rios for some value AND STILL HAVE FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY
MW: He should have traded Wells before 2007, but ownership caved to the wishes of the fans.
- Lex M.If JP is to be blamed for anything it’s the fact he gave Rios this contract well before his FA years. Not that I think it’s a bad contract, just an unnecessary one.
As for his performance I visited BR and his top comparable at age 27 is Bernie Williams. Third is Ellis Burks. I think people need to step back and look at this as a White Sox fan. Would you be angry your team just took on a long term contract or thrilled you basically signed a top talent midseason.
- Bill“MW: Or the truth. Let the numbers decide.”
Rios was a good fielder over those years, but you’d be hard pressed to convince me that he was the best defensive outfielder in MLB. And if he was, then his defensive ability has deteriorated more than I thought, and to a point where the move today makes more sense. I generally liked Alex’s performance as a player (more so in years before this one), but to call him the best defensively in the outfield over three years is a stretch.
MW: I gotta find me the Fielding Bible.
- Terry BradleyThe mostly unspoken lamentable result here is that whatever the Jays do or don’t do with the “flexibility” – it’s clear no one in the organization has the intestinal fortitude to face reality regarding the fact that Wells is no longer a Center Fielder.
In my unprofessional estimation, the minimized Rios value AND Wells’ by sticking to that.
Whatever value they redeem out of the rest of Wells contract seems to be dependent on his hitting recovering – I can’t think of a precedent for a player losing so much defensive value and then returning to the status of a premium defender. And he has no less value to the Jays as a competent LF than he does as a bad CF….probably more.
I’m VERY optimistic about the Jays young players…but I’m not at all optimistic about what’s going on upstairs. From a distance it SEEMS as if something is very much amiss. Whether that’s ownership or what, I can’t guess…but this doesn’t feel like a team that’s ready to step up to the next level.
It feels like a good team – and you know I shared your viewed it was a good team – is flying apart.
MW: I agree with you about Wells – the fact they’d rather let Rios walk for nothing than use him in centre, where he’d have much more value, speaks volumes about the organization’s reticence to move Vernon, positionally. I don’t see the whole flying apart thing. Best-case, the Jays have exchanged one of their many right-handed hitters who refuse to walk for a left-handed hitter who doesn’t.
- WillRainHey Mike,
So other than when Roy Halladay’s pitching, why should I come down to the ballpark again this year?
MW: Sigh.
- Adam I.Mr Wilner
above i cited examples of other salary dumps the jays have done recently and you replied by saying when will i agrue the point rios was the one time exception. how about ryan and rolen this year and frank thomas years ago.
i know you will agrue rolen didnt want to be here and that may be true, but his salary was primed to be cut if he couldnt be moved. Cincinnati saved the jays bacon on rolen.
What about BJ Ryan. his salary was dumped. I know he was struggling, but why pay a guy to sit home. send him out to pitch when called upon. The jays were the boss here and because of alittle whining by ryan they release him in a “salary dump”.
these are only a few examples of how JP has alrady had experience in dumping salary and was right at home in dumping rios
MW: Ryan wasn’t a salary dump at all, the Jays didn’t save a cent on Ryan’s contract by releasing him. Rolen wasn’t really a salary dump either, it was a smart deadline move – dealing a bound-to-decline asset at the peak of his value and getting a combined 15 years of controllable player.
- mark in caledoniaA while back in the middle of a series of Rios baserunning and fielding gaffes, I opined that Rios should be dumped. I’m glad it has finally occurred, though as with many others I wish JP had managed to get something for him. But the bottom line is that while Rios was here, the Jays had a tenth of their salary committed to a player with a 10 cent head.
Now there is a possibility of having someone else (Snider) play 150 games in right for next to zero dollars. This leaves the easier leftfield to Lind next year. This could be a decent offensive outfield.
My last point is that Wells and Rios always seemed to be associated together in peoples minds, perhaps due to their coincidental decline, perhaps because they appear to hang out together. But with Rios no longer here, perhaps Wells will come closer to earning his contract and us fans will treat him more like the the centrefielder and less like the whipping boy. That would be a welcome development.
MW: I don’t think Rios’ departure will make the fans any more patient with Wells.
- MontgomeryI like it, Rios gone means Snider will be up shortly. Once Rolen was dealt I knew the Jays were not making a run at it next year. Let the kids play, give Ruiz and Snider at bats, and deal Overbay too. If you take Hill and Lind out of the mix this offence has been horrid for two years it was time for an overhaul.
MW: We’ll see how over they haul it.
- jason c wRedundancy alert, post #55!!!
“out of which he will not be able to come out”.
MW: D’oh! I don’t proofread the comment responses. You got me.
- NormThanks Mike. I know you believe in the truth. I am proud of my colleagues at U of T for encouraging that and, evidently, for furthering your love of statistics. But as I say, the truth is not always a number. It is also almost always partial. That said, the Rios/Crawford comparison is a good one and highly telling.
Yes, the economy has changed, I would not contest that. But again, in April of 2008 many (certainly not all) people were predicting the bubble would burst. More importantly, J.P. himself (and I believe you?) have insisted that Rogers has not cut back on the payroll and he says that they have never asked him to dump salary. As far as the Jays are concerned, Rogers is the economy. If no one comes to the games and the owner wants a $100 million payroll, that is the economy. That is how it works in sports. Economy is a funny word.
I was not suggesting you are a company man. Just asking. I have no idea how these things work and it is my job to ask questions. I have not seen or heard it discussed explicitly.
I generally agree with you that the Jays are better than folks on the list acknowledge and also that folks here are essentially impatient. Most of us are also Leaf and/or Raptors fans, and, well, losing gets old.
One question for you. Halladay’s numbers are slightly “up” since he returned from injury in terms of WHIP, ERA, hits allowed, etc, as you indicated. But it seems to me he is being hit harder than we are used to seeing. What do the numbers show in terms of fly versus ground balls, balls to the outfield, and also in terms of double plays? Thanks.
Keep seeking that truth Mike. And when you find it, keep proselytizing with us. Maybe we will get that Wilner religion some day.
MW: I’m not looking for zealots, but thanks. Halladay is getting hit harder. His line drive percentage was 17% before he went on the DL, and it’s 25% since.
- WilliamMike, re Rios with the W/S — I’ve heard that they intend to play him in Center, between Dye and a platoon of Podsednik/Wise. Where does that leave Carlos Quentin?
I don’t follow the White Sox that closely, but it seems they now have a surplus of outfielders. Are any of them F/A’s after this year?
MW: They do seem to have an extra one now – I don’t think they thought they were actually going to get Rios. Quentin is struggling, but I can’t imagine they’d rather have Podsednik/Wise in there than him. Dye may be a free agent after this season (there’s a mutual option), Podsednik definitely is.
- NormMike, sorry for the multiple posts, but I just noticed in the box score of last night’s game that the error is listed as Mitre’s. Last night it was still showing as Cano’s, so I guess there must have been a late scoring change, which is well-justified. I couldn’t see how Cano could have been charged with the error in the first place!
MW: I hadn’t heard about the scoring change. Cano could have caught it, but it was a bad throw.
- NormM-Dub,
Long time no type.
I hope all is well on the blog front.
I have to talk to you about something. You know my NL man crush on Chad Billingsley. For 6 years or so, my AL man crush has been Chone Figgins. NOW, I need to yell at you. A few years back I was listening to the show; it was a time where Glaus was on the block. A caller said he had heard chone for troy was on the table. You laughed him off the air. You said the Jays would be mentally handi-capped to take that trade – I grew angry with you. Very angry. However, now that Im hearing you aknowledge the glory of Chone, I feel i can move forward and forget your past evil doings.
Regards,
Slobber
MW: I would never say that the Jays would be mentally handicapped to do anything – I don’t take shots like that. But no, I wouldn’t have traded Glaus for Figgins.
- slobberfaceFurthermore, theres no chance the Bluejays are smart enough to get somebody like Chone. We’re – and yes im allowed to say we’re, if youre allowed to call them MY toronto bluejays – WE’RE going to pay for Scutaro and bring in some more homosapiens with no pop.
MW: They’re far more likely to pay for Figgins than to pay for Scoot.
- slobberface95% of the comments above and 95% of your comments, Mike this season would make sense in the spring of 2008. They do not make sense in the middle of the summer of 2009.
“Everybody” outside Toronto thinks JP got handed a gift. ChiSox GM Williams is making some risky moves. He bailed out Toronto. I think he is already 2nd guessing himself on this move. He gambled that TO didn’t have the guts to just let Rios go. In the end he figured they would pick up 25% of his salary for a bunch of prospects. He got fooled.
Too many people think atheletes can play their games disconnected from the economy. This isn’t fantasy league baseball. Revenue has to be greater than expenses. If total league payrolls in all professional sports are going to decline 10-20% the next couple of years, being stuck in a long term contract with the money backloaded is foolishness. The leagues with salary caps are going to be the first to decline because they are tied to league revenue. Baseball will be amongst the last to deal with the new economic reality, but when reality hits, it will hit baseball teams even harder.
Short term contracts are the way forward. See Scutoro and Barajas. The big spending teams are going to hit the financial wall 2010-11. Watch out NYY, BoSox, Mets, ChiSox, Detroit, Phillies. The Jays need to survive till then.
This is the only explanation I have for why the Jays didn’t move Halladay. Still in this economy, Halladay’s contract is a bargain. He puts 5,000-10,000 bums in the seats in ROGERS’ Centre just to see him play. He only has one more year left on his contract, so he will be motivated to perform going into FA (not that he needs it). If Beeston and the boys are betting on a collapse in the FA market after 2010, they want to be one of the few teams with payroll room that can sign him. Without Rios, Ryan and Rolen, that is now possible. Giving up on those guys to keep Halladay is a good move.
I would be extremely surprised to see the Jays sign any FAs for longer than one year contracts this off season. (No pitchers.) I wouldn’t expect it to be anything more than 2nd tier players as well. However, they could still upgrade the team @ 3rd, RF/DH, catcher, 1st with those moves. I predict there are going to be some pretty decent players taking hefty pay cuts this off season. Chicago outfielders whose last name isn’t Rios for starters.
MW: We shall see.
- Tim MAs a long-time Rios-basher I am gald to see him go although even I thought he would be worth at least a bag of balls (used of course) in a trade. He has been an extremely frustrating player to watch. All the talent in the world but seemeingly without the brain/heart/?? to put it all together. As a season ticket holder I would much rather watch potential blossom than fester. He will have his shining moments with the Sox but many tarnished ones as well.
In my opinion this move gives reason for optimism again heading into 2010. It all comes down to what JP (or his replacement?)manage to do with the wiggle room they now have relative to the Rogers-imposed budget. Whether you like JP or not, he is the guy currently entrusted to make this team better. I have to say though, that the goings on of the past few months reminds me a little of the Grunwald situation with the Raptors – let the incumbant clean house a little and then the new guy comes in without both of his hands tied behind his back. Maybe the interim period for Beeston is coming to a close and a major change is on the horizon. I’ll be sorry to see Beeston go but there will be few tears shed by this fan for JP.
- K-MikeYou and I may be the only ones, but I’ve always liked Rios, and continued to do so to the end. I think he’s enormously talented, and the school that lumped him with Wells as ‘chronic underachievers’ is off the mark by a very long way.
Bob McCown yesterday said that getting rid of Rios was ‘genius’ (or words to that effect), but in the same breath said that Rios was on track to hit about 18 homers this year. Given that he’s already hit 14, I don’t think that shows a brilliant understanding of Rios’s genuine statistics in context.
I’m no statistician, but Rios is young and appears to be having an off year compared to his previous career. But look at the stats that count. In Rios’s best year in 2007, he got 85 RBIs in 161 games, with 24 home runs. This year he has 62 RBIs in 108 games, with 14 home runs. Are we seriously saying he is not on track to hit about another 20 RBIs and maybe 10 home runs before the end of the year? His batting average is way off, but production seems ok to me. Surely that’s what counts?
And if you really want a ‘Babe goes to New York’ moment, we could note that at roughly the same stage in his career, Barry Bonds hit .248 with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs in 159 games for Pittsburgh. So much for underachievers with bad attitude.
MW: Bonds was a very different guy. Your stats are lacking, too – Rios is on pace to hit about seven more home runs this year and drive in about 30 more.
- Ben AssyntHi Mike,
I fear that Alexis Rios will blossom into the star we all thought he would be. I think Ozzie Guillen will light a fire under him. You know Ozzie will be very blunt if Alex continues his sometimes lackadasical effort. Here is what I project will be Rios’ future numbers with the Pale Hose:
2009: w/CHI .358 10 HR 36 RBI
2010:.309 32 HR 108 RBI 42 SB
2011:.324 35 HR 117 RBI 51 SB
2012:.337 30 HR 104 RBI 40 SB
2013:.346 46 HR 131 RBI 45 SB
I wish Alex well, don’t get me wrong, but I fear letting him go for nothing will prove costly. You’re right, they could have gotten something decent for a guy of his skill set had they waited until the offseason. I really think part of the rationale for this move was to offset the $12 million they will have to pay BJ Ryan not to pitch for them next season. The question is: is this the beginning of a cost cutting strategy or will they use the extra money to pick up a much needed outfielder with some power?
MW: I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that Rios’ numbers will take that kind of jump.
- Ian from WhitbyHi Mike:
1)Regarding Alex Rios, I’m sorry he is gone, as he’s always been one of my favorite players although I, like many, have been frustrated at times by his inability to get to the next level. At first I figured that the Jays’ biggest need and place to put the Rios $$ was at D.H. but it now seems that if the Jays next year are going to have Snyder and Ruiz, together with Lind to play right,left and d.h. we don’t really need a d.h. and the money can be better spent to upgrade third base and catcher and s.s if necessary although I,d love to see Marco for at least one more year. If all of that happens as well as possible, I guess we could be better than if we had kept Rios, since no room for him, Snyder, Ruiz and Lind.
2) I think you may have overreacted and perhaps misunderstood the caller last night who commented that after listening to the Jays’ broadcast on the radio he developed a new admiration,appreciation or respect(can’t recall the exact words) for Vin Scully. You took this comment as a negative comment or criticism of Jerry Howarth, but I’m not sure that is what the caller meant, although since you cut him off and ended the call, we never got to find out for sure. I think his point might have been this: After listening to Jerry do the incredibly difficult job of both play by play and colour/analysis, which has to be the hardest job in broadcasting especially on radio when you have to fill literally every second with something interesting and can’t even bounce thoughts of somebody else, or take a break to collect your thoughts,his point may have been(without reference to whether he thought Jerry was doing a great,mediocre or poor job-I wasn’t listening but I’m sure it was very good as I think he’s an excellent broadcaster) that after listening to one man doing the job of two( and sometimes three) for 6 innings, it made him really appreciate Vin Scully who has been doing it for the better part of(or maybe more than) a half century!!
Obviously, I could be wrong and it may have been intended as a criticism of Jerry, but just as likely it was simply and expression of admiration and wonderment for Mr. Scully.
I’d appreciate your comments.
Thanks
MW: 1 – I don’t think the Jays see Ruiz as any kind of future solution at DH. 2 – The more I think about it, the more I think you’re probably right. I guess that’s what can happen when you’re so used to the negative.
- LorrieHi Mike,
Why is it that our team continues to look for a short-stop… it looks like we are trying to fill this hole year after year, you finally sign Johnny Mac to his first long term deal of his career and promptly sit him on the bench… maybe we don’t need production from the SS position, just solid defence, do you think if the team can be improved at the infield/outfield corners will John McDonald be back in a more full-time type of role, accepting the fact he doesn’t produce offensively?
Thanks
MW: No, I don’t.
- JamesNice article. I realize a lot of these contracts are back-loaded. I think this was a business decision based on whether the Jays wanted to get deeper into Rios’ contract and continue to pay escalating salary for (perhaps) declining productivity. This is a roll of the dice for the Jays, no doubt.
I fully agree that Rogers needs to put these savings back into the team for this move to be beneficial in the Jays’ long-term interest.
As always, we can look at previous players they Jays have given up on (Jayson Werth comes to mind) that have blossomed elsewhere. That’s baseball.
MW: Werth is an unfair comparison – he didn’t blossom until well after he would have left Toronto as a free agent.
- Mike in Reading, PAMike, I wanted to thank-you for your interview last week with the Reading Phillies concerning Pedro.
I currently live in Reading but am a native of Oshawa.
Always nice to listen to The Fan to get updates on my local Phillies….
MW: You’re welcome.
- Mike in Reading, PAMW: “…that was their ultimate decision after three days of heavy trade negotiation didn’t result in the Sox coming up with a package the Blue Jays found attractive.”
What were they negotiating? Were the white sox saying “we’ll give you this and that,” and were the Jays saying “no, that’s okay, we’ll take nothing.”
MW: The White Sox were saying “we’ll give you this and that, so long as you pay this much of Rios’ contract” and the Jays said “no, thanks”.
- Evan WhiteHere’s the real problem. Rogers and Co. are not going to put the money saved on Rios back into the team. They’re going to pocket that dough. Death of Ted may well be proven to have been the beginning of the end of the Blue Jays in Toronto. We just don’t know it yet!
MW: And you know this to be true based on what?
- Paul McDougall“three days of heavy trade negotiation didn’t result in the Sox coming up with a package the Blue Jays found attractive.”
Hmmm… Did the Sox want the Jays to give them Rios AND someone else for nothing? Why wouldn’t the Jays accept anything the Sox offered, just to get something back?
MW: See above.
- superpapabenMike,
If Lind continues to hit in the DH spot, and Snider comes up to play RF, who do you think is likely to be signed to fill the LF spot. Is Jason Bay an option? And, do you see Scutaro being resigned?
MW: Jason Bay is an option if the Jays are willing to up the payroll. I see Scutaro being re-signed if he’s willing to accept a short-term, low-cost deal.
- BillOh, forgot to mention one of JP’s best moves as GM, his recent trade of Rolen. Results will tell, but I don’t think Edwin Scissorhands has negative value at that contract, and his bat has real upside. Meanwhile, he got us two plus plus arms, one of which has a shot at being a cornerstone member of a bullpen, and another who could potentially be stretched into a useful starter, or alternatively, can end up another very useful member of a very good bullpen.
Would Edwin consider DH’ing?
MW: He might have to, but if he can the throwing thing down, the Jays could be fine with him at third, Lind DHing and Chone Figgins in left next season.
- Scot PMike: I like the noon show, and your after game shows too, but I might venture to guess you only right about half the time unless someone is taking about stats and not opinions.
Yesterday you laughed at people that told you that Rios was gone and you said NEVER NEVER for nothing. It’s like last year about the Rays. Don’t worry you said they’ll be back to earth. I also believe this dump isn’t totally about money but also about how he won’t listen to his coach’s and just does his own thing. In the last week he thrown to the wrong base at least 5 times. and heck, that’s a lot in a weeks time.
I was hoping they might have gotten something for him but I’m glad he’s gone. Another thing about comparing him to Crawford is that since there doubles are about the same but Crawford has over 200 more stolen bases. And about Rios being an all star, they needed someone from our Jays, and the last 2 years his stats at the end of the year have been fine but BA has increased about 20 points AFTER the Jays were out of the playoff race. I think they can find someone almost as good for a lot less.
MW: I think they can find someone almost as good (talent-wise) and better (production-wise) for a lot less, too. The notion that Rios was an all-star because “they needed someone from the Jays” is, plain and simple, revisionist history. In Pittsburgh in 2006 Rios was one of FIVE Jays to be invited. He was the only one in 2007, it’s true. I didn’t see him throw to the wrong base five times in a week, either. I can’t really even remember him doing it once last week.
- JRWMW,
No doubt, your analysis of Rios’ production is accurate, however, his true value may be judged by the market. In the end, very few teams were willing to take a chance on a guy with loads of talent and perhaps untapped potential and nothing else.
On another note, I’ve always repected JP, but to colour the Rios deal as anything other than a salary dump is pure fiction.
- JohnWhile I have no problems with Rios going for nothing in return, and I still believe that J.P. will be fired at the conclusion of the season, the bigger picture is disturbing. That being the increasing economic chasm between the Yankees, Red Sox et al and the fact that the “quality” free agents will naturally find their way to them, but, even more disturbing, is the possibility the Jays will become the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League. Although, lol, I fully agree with what the Pirates did at the trade deadline.
MW: I don’t believe the Jays will ever become the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League, especially since the Kansas City Royals are the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League. The Pirates are headed for their 16th straight losing season – let the Jays have one before you declare them done.
- BobThere’s been a lot of JP-bashing today (okay, all the time). And, I hate to pile on…..even tho, I don’t hate him, nor do I love him. I find him to be mediocre.
However, I there is one thing a CANNOT STAND about him! Whenever he is doing interviews, he tends to refer to specific players as “the player.” Arrrgghhhhh!!! It drives me nuts.
“He wanted a trade, so we tried to accommodate the player.”
“The player will be offered at a high price.”
I’m paraphrasing, I know, but you get the point. They have names!! And, they are your players! Is there no sense of connection? Or family? It’s a subconscious thing he does to separate himself as the boss……..maybe.
It probably means nothing, but it bugs me, nevertheless.
Okay, vent over.
——————
I like your idea of going after Chone Figgins. I think he could be good value for money. Considering the economic drop, he might be had for the same money. Which is around $7 million. A DH at the same-ish money, might be Hank Blalock. Then the Jays line-up could look like this:
Figgins (3B)
Scutaro (SS)
Lind (LF)
Hill (2B)
Blalock (DH)
Wells (CF)
Overbay (1B)
Snider (RF)
Barajas (C)
I’d be okay with that. They could score a whole bunch of runs. And, have a payroll in the mid-80′s.
MW: I don’t like Hill hitting clean-up, and I can’t imagine that Figgins and Blalock would cost even close to that much. As for the “vent”, it seems to me that Ricciardi tends only to refer to guys as “the player” after they’ve left the organization. It bugs me too, though.
- RomeHey Mike,
I think giving Rios away for nothing raises a much bigger question about general manager J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure in Toronto. His tenure has been marked not by bad baseball decisions, but by bad financial ones. Ricciardi’s financial follies go on, from Corey Koskie, to the $85 million owed to Vernon Wells from 2011-14 (makes Wells one of the most immovable contracts in the game), Frank Thomas, and B.J. Ryan (was paid $47 million for two good seasons of relief work).
As you said, clearing Rios’ salary will give the Blue Jays more flexibility to add some offensive pieces for 2010. Though if the contract is that bad now, shouldn’t we question why it was handed out in the first place?
MW: The time to do that was when it was handed out, since none of us has a crystal ball.
- SilvioMike,
This move smells like a fire sale by Rogers to shed salary. Rogers doesn’t seem to be interested in building a winner. Thus, they should do us all a favour and sell this team to someone who wants to build a winner.
I also think this move was done to clear the deck for the new president and/or GM come the fall.
- Joemichael,
one other thing i’ve been meaning to ask you but keep forgetting.
your viewpoint on the use/ overuse? of millar (& in particular hitting him out of the 4th spot over the last little while) by the manager is quite in line it seems with most that follow this team. it’s pretty painful to continue to watch isn’t it?
question though… have you or anyone else you’ve heard, asked j.p. yet what he thinks of the manager’s decision & strategy on that particular item of concern?
i gotta believe he can’t be happy with this at all……
pretty sure his genuine intention on signing millar in the first place was to “spot” him at dh, “some 1b perhaps to give overbay the occasional day off, a veteran ph off the bench etc.. but that’s about it, not this mainstay in the lineup thing it seems…. hitting cleanup no less.
i just have a hard time seeing j.p. endorsing this “millar for mvp” campaign that cito seems to be pushing for is all.
what do you think michael?
MW: I can’t imagine that the front office believes that Millar should be getting as much playing time as he has been, but they haven’t released him yet.
- darrell bishopMike I am shocked by the level of disdain for JP Riccardi by the media in the city. People like the host of Prime Time and the Baseball columnist for the Toronto Star have clearly made this very personal. The next GM who comes in here and it does appear quite likely JP will be fired is going to find a very deep stable of young arms the best young second baseman in the game in my opinion a future star in Snyder, a good bullpen and several inexpensive value players. JP is not perfect but is a very good baseball man who is far to honest for his own good and has not stroked the ego’s of some very insecure media members. One final note, I will never be able to prove this but I am certain that the previous president made him do the Vernon Wells contract.
Thanks for all your work Mike, long time reader and listener
Robert
- RobertThe reason why the Jays let Rios go for nothing? It’s excrutiatingly simple: because not one of 29 major league teams was willing to give up ANYTHING for him and his lengthy contract. Doesn’t this beg the question that maybe J.P. et al are guilty of overrating and overvaluing the local talent? Maybe that’s at least one of the reasons why his teams never contend…
MW: I think every team overrates and overvalues its own players, but I don’t think the front office overrated Rios’ talent – just what he was going to be able to do with it over the past couple of years.
- KenThis smells like a Beeston deal..I don’t think I’ve seen Riccardi look so skirmish at a press conference before..If this was a Beeston move, then lets hope this guy leaves sooner rather then later..
Beeston is overrated in my opinion..Yes he was part of some very good Jays teams but he was also part of some very bad teams in the mid 90′s..The Jays had 4 losing seasons in a row before he left in 1997..Its funny how he wasn’t so bright after Gillick left.. Beeston’s teams were 56 games below .500 after Pat left in 1994..No way he wins 2 WS without Gillick around..
I think the game has passed him by..He’s like Paul Stanly of KISS running around with his hairy chest hangin out thinking its 1976..He isn’t the guy to lead this team in 2009..
I am no fan of Riccardi but if your going to let this guy go, just do it already..Leaving him around to do the dirty work, isn’t very nice..
Could it be Beeston is “clearing the deck” for the next guy?..Will the Jays be dumb enough to leave a lame duck GM with a garbage can full of lousy contracts with 16 million bucks to spend?..Not on your life..
MW: Beeston isn’t the baseball guy, he’s the President. I don’t think he ever rode on Gillick’s coattails or took more credit than he deserved. And I don’t think you know what “skirmish” means.
- ray bI hope youre right about Figgins, M-Dub. I think Chone has NL written all over him though.
MW: Time will tell.
- SlobberfaceI like this move and I am actually surprised the White Sox were willing to take Rios and that huge salary.
Up until yesterday, Rios was one of the most bashed players along with Wells by the fans, and now everyone is so sad to see him go?
I’m hopeful and confident the Jays will use the money wisely in the off-season.
We’ll have some arms returning next year so the pitching should be in great shape. Now let’s go get some bats.
- Exorcist“MW: The time to do that was when it was handed out, since none of us has a crystal ball.”
Mike, I understand general managers will make financial mistakes during their tenures, though Ricciardi has made a lot of bad financial decisions and they are clearly evident. The decision to trade away Rios for nothing indicates that the Blue Jays front office felt his contract extension was a mistake. In other words, the Blue Jays screwed up and overpaid him.
I think we should question why the Rios contract extension was handed out in the first place, as well as all the other bad financial decisions made by Ricciardi during his tenure. As I said, Ricciardi’s tenure has not been marked by bad baseball decisions, though by bad financial ones. Wouldn’t you agree?
MW: I don’t agree. I think that a lot of his big-money moves haven’t worked out, but none of them looked awful at the time, which is the only time you can fairly evaluate. The Blue Jays front office didn’t feel as though the Rios contract was a mistake at the time, but they feel it has turned out to be one.
- Silviore: comment 112..
Yea that was a typo..I meant squeamish..
Please don’t try to insinuate that Beeston has no say in what contracts are signed and who goes and who stays..If Beeston is the president and isn’t the so called “baseball” guy then why is it you always point to the former President and “non baseball guy” Paul Godfrey for the signing of the Wells contract?..
Just like your comparison of Rios to all the other right fielders in baseball..How is it ok to use that analogy with Rios but not ok when comparing Overbay to the rest of the first basemen in the league?
I have heard you say plenty of times not to compare players stats with positions..
If we are going down that road then Overbay is severely lacking in virtually every offensive category among first basemen..12th in Hr and not even in the top 10 in any offensive category worth mentioning..
MW: I think we have different definitions of typo. I wasn’t insinuating that Beeston has no say on contracts and such, but that he’s not a “baseball guy” nor would he advertise himself as such. Not that he doesn’t know anything, of course. Doesn’t the fact that the “non-baseball guy” Godfrey had so much to do with the Wells contract kind of illustrate my point? As for the Overbay thing, I don’t know what stats you’re checking, but in mine he’s third in the league in OBP among first basemen, and that’s a pretty significant stat. When I talk about not bringing positions in, I mean don’t think that your first baseman has to hit 30+ homers and that sort of thing.
- ray b“MW: I don’t agree. I think that a lot of his big-money moves haven’t worked out, but none of them looked awful at the time, which is the only time you can fairly evaluate.”
In my opinion, I think majority of those “big-money moves” made by Ricciardi at the time were not advisable.
Vernon Wells is a solid ballplayer, though the Blue Jays paid him as if he was one of the top players in the game, which he clearly was not. The $85 million owed to Vernon Wells from 2011-2014, makes Wells one of the most immovable contracts in all of baseball.
B.J. Ryan’s contract, which was for 5 years, was one of the worst contracts handed out by J.P. during his tenure in my opinion. At the time, Ryan’s new contract was the largest deal given to a reliever, topping the $39 million, four-year contract Mariano Rivera had with the Yankees from 2001-04. Also, consider J.P. Ricciardi handed Ryan all that guaranteed money after Ryan only had one full season of closing games in Baltimore. Relievers are volatile, which is why handing out a long-term contract to a reliever could backfire. In effect, the Blue Jays paid Ryan $47 million for his two good seasons of relief (2006 and 2008). That’s not the smartest way to spend money. Wouldn’t you agree?
The contract given to Frank Thomas was not the smartest at the time. You don’t hand a 39 year old hitter a two year deal worth $18 million, plus an option for a third year. I acknowledge Thomas had a solid year in 2007; in effect the Blue Jays paid Thomas $18 million only for his 2007 season, since the Big Hurt was no help in 2008.
MW: Look at the other contracts that were signed the same off-season as Wells signed. It’s a terrible contract, but it was the perfect storm of age, market, opportunity and production – and the fan base was clamoring for it. Ryan’s contract was the biggest deal ever given to a reliever for about three minutes, then Billy Wagner signed his contract (which turned out to be worse) for a larger AAV and overall payout and Rivera signed for a larger AAV. Yes, they paid a bucketload of money for one dominating season and one good one – but that’s hindsight. Thomas had never had a poor season when healthy and was coming off a fantastic year.
- Silvio