2:45 AM Eastern
These one-run losses are starting to get ridiculous.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The Late Night JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Michael of the Ballyard:
I seem to remember you saying you’d check out the Mississauga Twins blog back in the spring. The playoffs are almost here! It’s worth following. If you get the chance, let me know what you think!
- Kevin DWhat is Downs’ ERA since he came back? He hasn’t been the same pitcher.
I remember the Jays had a trade for Delgado worked out with the Dodgers, but he turned it down. I am just curious, who were the players the Jays would have received? I want to see if they made any mark in the majors.
I didn’t have a chance to listen to your show over the weekend, but you were saying it was a big disgrace that only 24,000 and change turned out for Halladay’s start. Don’t you think it is a bigger disgrace that 2,000 more fans went to Saturday’s game and 6,000 more went to Sunday’s game? I am sure you covered it on the radio, but I wanted to get your comments on that because it is really weird.
MW: Since Downs has returned from the DL, his ERA is 8.10 and his WHIP is 2.55. I have given up trying to figure out the attendance thing.
- scooterI want to vomit in disbelief. I feel like a Brooklyn Dodgers fan right now.
MW: Dem bums.
- BrandenHi, Mike:
Mr. Downs, who has been quite good for years, doesn’t seem the same since the whole “stubbed toe” incident.
Is it time for someone like Jason Frasor to be put in for holds and saves? Perhaps Scott could be used in less intense situations until his performance improves.
MW: It was a lot more serious than a stubbed toe. I think it might be time for Frasor/League/Accardo to start playing more of an important role.
- Heartland ManMike, re the replay of Wells’ “homer”, in the first inning — this kid Saunders looks like a pretty good fielder, doesn’t he? However, he looks pretty vulnerable at the plate. How was his hitting in the minors? Does his background indicate that he can/will adjust to the ML pitching?
MW: Saunders hit .310/.378/.544 in AAA as a 22 year-old this year, which is pretty impressive (albeit in a hitters’ league).
- NormHi Mike:
One comment arising out of last night’s game:
I realize that the pitch that Ichiro hit to win the game was a great pitch which only a great hitter could have even made contact with let alone a base hit. My comment is that since the Jays’ coaches and players all knew what kind of pitch Downs would throw in that situation, namely low and almost in the dirt, and knowing that Ichiro likes to swing at those kind of pitches and does occasionlly make contact, usually by slapping it over the third baseman, why not tell the outfielders, especially Vernon to come in really, really shallow on the off chance(which obviously wasn’t so ‘off’) that Ichiro makes contact and does exactly what he did. Clearly there was no chance whatsoever that Ichiro is going to hit(or even try to hit) the ball to deep or even medium centre field in these circumstances and even if a medium fly ball was somehow hit(almost impossible given the location of the pitch), Vernon could have gone back to catch it. It seems that playing much shallower has virtully no downside and would have prevented exactly what happened.
Totally unrelated to the game, it bothers me that Jonathan Sanchez does not get credit for ‘pitching’ a perfect game. Surely it makes no sense to say that he was not perfect when the only baserunner was on due to an error(by somebody other than himself). Assuming that perfect games and no hitters are pitcher statistics and not team statistics,(recognizing that the team behind a pitcher is very important in both cases) I don’t get why the game he pitched wasn’t perfect. Your thoughts.
Thanks
MW: To your first point, there’s some validity to it, but only some. Downs could miss, Suzuki could find a way to hit the ball hard, and if a routing fly ball falls in for a game-winning hit, you get skewered. Sanchez didn’t pitch a perfect game – someone reached base. It doesn’t matter how it happened, no one can reach base for a game to be perfectly pitched.
- LorrieGreat game last night. Up until the dropped bunt, I actually felt for some reason that the Jays were going to win that game. Just seems to me that they’re getting their mojo back. There’s just that undefinable feeling that good teams have in that situation, where they seem that they are destined to come back and win a certain game. It doesn’t always happen, but teams like the Yanks and the R. Sox more often than not are able to pull those ones out. Guess it’s the adage that positive attitude and confidence breed success.
I’m trying not to be reactionary- because if you play the way the Jays did last night, you’ll more often than not be succesful, but do you have a hypothesis as to why the Jays seem to not be able to be more successful in these situations? I mean, in my mind the Jays lack of success in ‘pressure’ situations (I define as stats such as avg with risp, avg. in 1 or 2 run games, avg in extra innings, etc.) over the last two years has gone beyond being explicable as a statistical anomaly. When you look at the Jays base line stats- avg., slugging,runs scored, etc., they are median to above. In fact, when you consider how miserably they perform in later, pressure situations (say the last 20 to 30% of games), their base stats could look even more impressive. If there is no such thing as clutch hitters (one of the few opinions I don’t necessarily share with you), then by extension doesn’t it then mean choke hitters also shouldn’t exist?
Absolutely loved the Perkins article in the Star today; the second half of the article pretty much mirrors exactly my opinion on the Halladay situation, despite discrediting himself by the Expos analogy. A starting rotation of Halladay, Marcum, Romero, Cecil and Litsch/’scrabble’ Rzepczynski/Mills/Purcy/McGowan, a bullpen of Downs, Frasor, League, Tallet, Richmond, Carlson and Camp, and a lineup built around Hill, Lind, Wells, Snider, and Rios, seems to me competetive with any other team out there.
I like Riccardi’s approach of only making the trade if they get their optimal package, but I fear if the trade isn’t made this month, the pressure will build to make an offseason deal. Imo, if Halladay stays thru this year, plan on taking a shot next year with him. Best case scenario; the Jays are in a playoff race this time next year, they’re drawing 40,000 a game, Rogers financials improve (helped by encouraging attendance figures), and the future looks rosy enough for Halliday to consider re-signing. Worst case scenario; 365 days from now, the Jays are entertaining diminished, but still very lucrative trade proposals for Halliday. I would guess a Halliday rental would garner a similar package to present ones, minus one of the two pitchers they’re looking for. Actually, now that I think of it, the worst case scenario is that Halliday gets hurt, and has no trade deadline value, but you can’t base decisions on the possibility of injuries.
If you please, a memory refresher: how did the Ibanez non-trade play out last year? In my different time/space continuum, his extra 15-20 homeruns and 30-40 rbi’s (his stats minus whomever he replaces) put the Jays right up with the frontrunners.
Any word from the bean counters when it would be safe to bring Snider up? 5 for 8 with a homerun, a double and a walk in the last two games (striking out a lot, but slugging % keeps rising).
Respectfully,
S.C.
MW: If the Jays inability to hit in clutch situations is anything but a statistical anomaly, then it’d be one of the few times (if not the first) in the history of the sport that such a thing would be proven. Remember, the Jays weren’t awful at hitting with RISP all of last year, only in April and June. The best case, it’s true, is that the Jays win with HallAday next year – hopefully they’ll have the means to add around him to build a great year, though I don’t see that happening. Ibanez killed it last August, hitting .384/.441/.697 between the trade deadline and the time the Jays called Snider up. He’d have helped a lot, but I doubt he’d have made up that huge difference in the standings.
- S. Charles9/10 batters, that third pitch would’ve been in a safe spot, impossible to hit.. Not Ichiro though. I wonder if his un-Ichiro-like wild swing on the second pitch was to encourage Downs to throw it again, though?
Very frustrating, but on the up side a pretty decent start from Rzepczynski, all things considered. Rolen also looked very impressive out there, once again. I would think that if he goes on the market, with the way he’s playing , the Jays will get a very decent return for him?
MW: I wouldn’t think it would be very decent, but that depends on how much of his contract the Jays pay.
- CJohnson03Like I said, that swing of the bat was the most expensive thing Scott Downs ever did.
The last five times he has appeared, pitching 4 and 2/3 innings:
3 losses. 2 blown saves. 7 runs. 9 hits. 5 walks.
We can’t continue with him as closer right now. And I think he has hurt his FA chances of a big deal at the end of the season. He hasn’t looked like the same pitcher since he came back off the DL.
MW: No, he hasn’t, but he’s not a free agent until after next season.
- isabella reyesMIke. You are so right, these 1-run losses are getting ridiculous (right spelling?) It would have been a win if Michael Saunders doesn’t make the catch on Wells.
When Mark Buerhle took his no-hitter into the 6th inning I wonder if the networks would have tried to get a hold of Johnny Vandermeer or, if he’s passed members of his family?
I think he set a record for consective batters retired?
Peter. St.Catharines
MW: Vander Meer passed away 12 years ago, I’m sure there would have been lots of stories about him had Buehrle gotten it done. Yes, Buehrle set the record with 45 consecutive batters retired.
- PeterMW: I continue to be amazed at the regard some have for the Rays. A model franchise? They’ve had ONE season above .500 in the history of the franchise!
I suspect that in a few seasons you will grudgingly agree. You’re just a little slow off the block in learning about what is going on in Tampa. When one starts to understand the way they evaluate players, their team building philosophy, and the way they generally go about managing the team it quickly becomes apparent they are on the leading edge of major league franchises. How successful the team ultimately becomes will to some extent depend on their payroll decisions, but they already are a “model franchise” if you define that by effective and intelligent decision making, planning, and team building.
____________________________
MW: I consider Barry Bonds to be the second-best hitter in baseball history, behind only Babe Ruth.
Babe Ruth
Career OPS+….207
Best four seasons..256, 239, 239, 226
Barry Bonds
Career OPS+….182
Best four seasons….268, 263, 259, 231
One factor that needs to be considered in determining who was the best hitter, is that Babe Ruth played when their were no black players allowed in the league and virtually no players from other countries other than America. So major league baseball was basically a “white American” enterprise in his day. Barry Bonds played in a league that essentially included all the best players in the world. And even with this disadvantage all of Barry’s best three seasons were better than Babe Ruth’s best. When you consider Ruth’s pitching contributions that certainly enhances his claim to “best player ever”, but his claim to “best hitter ever” is not anywhere near so clear cut.
Just for fun, here is where A-Rod and Pujols stack up:
Pujols…..OPS+ 172
Best four seasons…195, 190, 187, 178.
A-Rod…..OPS+ 147
Best four seasons….177, 173, 162, 160
MW: I don’t believe I said anything about Ruth being the “clear-cut” best hitter ever. And in a few years, the Rays may indeed be a model franchise in the major leagues. Right now, they’re a joke of a team that has gotten good.
- the stat ladyI guess I have to ask about Cito’s decision to use Downs. Cito stated a couple of nights beforehand that with Downs struggling, he was going to use him in blowout situations to regain his confidence. So, the night before, he pitches in an 7 run lead and has a flawless inning.
Last night however, he is being used in the second game in a row in what is essentially a save situation. Clearly off the start he struggles, with the hit, walk, and error. My question is that after the hit and walk, why not bring someone else in? Obviously he was struggling and with the Jays having the actual possibility to win that game, why not use the best possible pitcher to get the outs? It’s not like the bullpen was taxed.
I guess that in a possible extra innings game, you want to use your best possible pitcher in the 9th to get to the extra innings, but even from Cito’s statement, that pitcher was not Downs at the moment. So why use him?
With two days to go to the deadline, it looks like Halladay will pitch today. I hope that he stays a Jay. So far, there haven’t been any offers out there that have been good enough.
MW: Once Downs screwed up the bunt, he was awesome again. You can’t pull the rug right out from under a guy after one bad week.
- TimHi Mike,
Since the last time the Jays were tied with the Yanks for the wild-card (2nd Game of Reds game), the Jays are 9-19. However, ONLY ONE game they lost by 4 runs or more, which was the 10-0 to phillies, when B. Mills started. That means 18 of their last 19 games that they lost were by 3 runs (inclusive) or less. We all know how the Jays offense has been this year after the 40 game mark. A few key hits here and there could have added 9 wins to their total giving them a record of 58-43 instead of 49-52. That would be 1 game behind BoSox for the Wild Card!
- Shakeelmichael,
- darrell bishoppoint well made on the rolen slam dunk gold glover award post i put up yesterday. i always seem to forget that batting prowess always seems to come into the equation when handing out that award.
you know, it’s just that you watch guys like mcdonald last yr. & rolen this yr. (well every yr. for him actually) man their respective positions on a daily basis in the field the way they do & you think nothing else should matter.
but was trying to think of other realistic candidates to go hd. to hd. with my guy scotty r. & no doubt longoria is definitely a very viable option.(particularly based on the combination of glove & bat dominance)
still think “rolls” (that’s what i call him when i text him) will win his 8th glove though.
son of a gun still hasn’t texted me back btw.
MW: I’m guessing that the thinking in giving both runners credit for a stolen base is that if the catcher didn’t get the guy he was trying to get, he wouldn’t have gotten the other guy, either. Flawed, I know, but lots of stuff is.
Which brings up the point of why catchers don’t throw out the trail runner on a more regular basis. A lot of easy outs ore going missing. The back runner of a double steal can never get a good jump by definition, and are often not even that fast.
______________________________
MW: Excellent article – I liked it a lot!
LaRussa – “As a young pitcher, the arm is growing. It is developing strength. It doesn’t have the musculature that it’s going to have in a few years. That’s how you develop arm and elbow strains, even core injuries, because a young body isn’t like a mature body, and it is just not as strong as it’s going to be.”
Mike, somebody posted this same thing a while ago, citing Dr. Ron Taylor and you poo pooed it.
MW: No, I didn’t. Go look back and see what I actually said.
- the stat ladyThat walk-off hit by Ichiro was the first walk-off hit of his career. Is that not an amazing stat?
MW: Yup.
- PatrickOK, Mike. I checked the runs/game stats myself and here they are (using June 30th as the proxy for pre/post Cito in 2008 as I couldn’t easily get the actual split based on when he and Gene Tenace came on board):
2007 – 4.65
2008 to June 30th – 4.12
2008 from July 1st – 4.72
2009 – 4.87
Pretty telling, I would say. What’s even more interesting are the walks vs home runs stats in 2008 before and after June 30th. Here’s a link (which doesn’t work, but try getting to the same site yourself):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=TOR&year=2008#month
That emboldens my argument that the change in hitting philosophy was telling and had it happened earlier (ideally at the beginning of 2008), I feel the Jays could have made the playoffs last year (when they had Halladay and Burnett, et al).
MW: Because the Jays didn’t hit for two months last season?
- Lorne CohenHey Mike,
What did you take from the Rogers report yesterday about spending about as much as the team is worth on payroll. It sounds like that’s a hint they will be spending less next year. Does Rogers think it’s ok that they’re already making excuses for next year and years to come?. Rogers should sell the team to somebody who wants the team to succeed and who cares about the fans.
MW: Spending as much as the team is worth on payroll? I didn’t hear that one, but I understand that the team is worth significantly more than $100 million, so that would be good. I don’t think that’s what they meant. The problem with corporate owners is that they’re responsible to shareholders.
- John McLeanThe Blue Jays have scored 492 runs and allowed 449 which is quite good, especially considering they have had so many starting pitchers on the DL. JP is a very good GM who happens to be very unlucky. Is it better to be lucky than good? Many teams with the Jays runs scored vs. runs allowed are in playoff contention.
Why do the Jays lose so many close games?
MW: Because of their repeated inability to hit with runners in scoring position. And yes, it’s far better to be lucky than good.
- MarcHey Mike. I just got back from the game! I angered alot of seattle fans because I cheered on the Jays so loud! I even met some guy who called into the Jaystalk and I remembered his call. Dave from Vancouver. He called in after an Angels game when the Jays blasted them! This guy was blown away that I remembered the time he called in. I said “Did you call in after an Angels game?” and the guy was shocked! I guess I remember the people who call in from BC. I told him to read the blog. Anyways hope you get some time off for a bit. Your working to hard!
- Matt from BCMike
If Roy H is traded to an NL team and his season pitching record puts him in the Cy Young winning category, would he still be eligible to win this recognition? If so it would seem logical that it would be a NL title if he finishes the season in the NL.
MW: When a player is traded from league-to-league, his season stats are reset to zero.
- Don LajoieI think all of the talk about how the Blue Jays are hard done by because of the division they play in might just ignore how this is simply a case of the chickens coming home to roost. In 1998 the leagues and divisions realigned, and at that time I’m sure there was an opportunity for Toronto to move out of the A.L. East in at least one of the many permutations of scenarios that were studied. No doubt the Blue Jays refused because of what a great draw the Yankees and Red Sox are at the gate. So to gripe about all this now only points to the shortsightedness of the decisions made prior to 1998.
MW: Yup. But then, the Yankees and Red Sox weren’t spending at the level they are right now back then, and no one could have imagined the massive payroll disparity that would eventually happen.
- JayIf the Brewers are serious about making a playoff push, do you think they’d be willing to do Scutaro for JJ Hardy + something? The Brewers upgrade for a slumping Hardy for a playoff run this year, then can take the draft compensation Scutaro and annoint Alcedes Escobar the starter for next season. The Jays meanwhile get an above average shortstop with power heading into his prime for 2(?) more seasons before free agency.
Any thoughts?
MW: One season and a bit. I haven’t heard that the Brewers are in on Scoot, but it’s not a bad idea.
- PeteMr Wilner
I see JP’s leverage in trading Halladay just dropped a few notches with Philly picking up Lee from Cleveland. The longer he waits to move the doctor, the less he will get in return.
Halladay’s value right now has never been higher as the club getting him would have possibly 2 playoff runs with him. if he hangs around till next year, he becomes someone’s rent-a-player, ie david cone or CC sabathia. rent a players never bring as much back as a player who is locked up for a season +.
The halladay trade or non trade will shape this franchise for the next 3-5 years, With JP at the helm, it looks more like a fast slippery slope to continued non contending baseball.
But hey. JP has never made a poor move hasnt he.
MW: Cliff Lee going to Philly doesn’t mean that the Jays should accept less than what they want for Halladay. He’ll still have multiple suitors and good value next year.
- mark in caledoniaMichael,
I recently heard JJ Putz’s comments about Ichiro when he went to the Mets. I don’t understand teammate’s criticism of player’s like Ichiro and Manny being too selfish.
Doesn’t their selfishness about their stats contribute to the team winning?
MW: I haven’t heard Putz’s comments. I think if a player cares too much about his batting average and wants to get a hit every time up or steal a base every time he gets on, that’s a good thing.
- Uncle Benhey mike,
so now that Roy apparently won’t be traded, do you think the jays deal him in the offseason, or will they spend money in the hopes of competing in 2010. My concern is that if you deal him in the offseason, you probably get less for him than you would get now.
MW: You probably do get a little less, but you could get major-league players, and there may be even more suitors. I don’t think they’ll actively try to move him in the off-season.
- andyMike,
I would really like to hear you and Roger Lajoie have a debate over the situation of the AL East and the ability of teams to compete on an annual basis with the Yankees and Red Sox. He keeps pulling out the Rays example and raves about the Twins and Athletics.
Personally I would like to see the Leagues without divisions. I know it’s not going to happen but I think the playing field will be more equal than the current system. Go back to the balanced schedule with a 14 team AL and 16 team NL the top 4 teams from each league make the playoffs. In that scenario each team will play the same number of games against the same opponents (Inter-league play is the exception, which I would also like to be rid of)and then you will truly have the best teams in the playoffs. I don’t think it would mean any more road trips just 4 game series as opposed to 3 game series.
MW: I have advocated that idea for a long time.
- IanMike ole’ boy, what do you think is wrong with Downs? Do you think old age is starting to catch up to him ole’ boy?
MW: I think his foot is probably still bothering him a bit.
- BernardMichael,
How do you think Cliff Lee will do in the Phillie’s homer friendly stadium?
MW: Not as well as the Phillies hope he will.
- Uncle BenHi Mike,
Here is the link to a Jays website which I find really cool.
http://www.jayscountry.ca/index.php
if you go to RESOURCES and then to SEASONS, you can find every single boxscore from every single Jays game ever played. This is really cool to look back on and try to remember certain games from way back. I discovered that Mike Flannigan and Dennis Martinez may have shut out the Jays in every single start against them. I swear I did not find a Flannigan or Martinez boxscore that saw the Jays ever score of them and they seemed to be all complete games. Check it out if you haven’t already. It’s perfect for a Jays fan
MW: At some point, I will. But baseball-reference.com provides that same info, not only for the Jays, but for every major-league team (at least, all the boxscores that are available). Thanks to that site, I can tell you that Dennis Martinez was 13-7, 2.35 lifetime against the Jays, with four complete-game shutouts, and Mike Flanagan was 17-7, 2.68 lifetime against the Jays, also with four complete-game shutouts.
- Ian from WhitbyWilner,
Now that it looks like Cliff Lee is on his way to Philly, does that mean the chances of moving Doc is less then 25%? Outside of Boston, who has a realistic shot of obtaining him?
If Philly makes it to the dance, is their starting lineup going to consist of Hamels, Lee, Martinez and Moyer or Blanton?
What’s the talk on Scutaro, Rolen and Overbay? I really hope J.P. does something as opposed to last year.
MW: I do think the chances of a Halladay deal are less than 25% right now. I actually think they’re less than 10%. The Red Sox, Brewers, Angels, Dodgers and maybe even Yankees are all still interested. I don’t know if Pedro will make the playoff rotation for the Phillies, but Hamels, Lee, Blanton, Moyer would be solid.
- BobbySome random musings during today’s afternoon game… It finally dawned on me what the problem is with many Blue Jays fans. It’s perception. The difficulty lies in the understanding of what constitutes a successful baseball team v.s success in the other professional sports. Most baseball fans look at the multiple winning seasons and the competitive ball club and see a successful team, the problem for the Jays is that in Toronto they aren’t held up to the standard of a major league baseball team, they’re measured against the other leagues standards.
In the NHL, NBA, MLS, CFL, and NFL the first step in having a successful franchise is making the playoffs, once in the playoffs a team is expected to continue to make the playoffs and advance further each year.
The problem with that measuring stick is in those leagues around half the teams make the playoffs, whereas around one third of the teams in MLB can make the playoffs.
So more casual sports fans in Toronto hear the expectations from almost all of their hometown teams that they are building and will get to the playoffs, and so they expect that from all of their teams.
So until either 1)The Jays overcome all of their injuries, play to their potential, and make the playoffs 2) Toronto baseball fans realise that success can’t only be measured by the playoffs or 3)MLB expands their playoffs, most people will still believe that this team has not been successful.
Of course eventually a team needs to take that step from winning seasons to playoffs but they can still be successful without that step.
Keep fighting the good fight.
MW: You just realized that now?
- JeffMike,
This road trip must have really messed up your sleeping pattern.
With Lee being traded, do you think another NL team will be willing to put together a great package to keep pace with the Phillies?
Also, I was watching some softball on Rogers Sportsnet earlier. Any idea why professional baseball does incorporate the use of a double sized 1st base (the half red and white one)? It gives the umpires a better chance to make the right calls, and prevents injuries.
Thanks
MW: I don’t know if the orange bag gives the umpire a better chance to make correct calls, but it certainly does help with injuries. As for the Lee thing, it could get the Dodgers to step up – it depends how much having Lee in Philly scares them. I certainly wouldn’t want to face Lee in the playoffs at Dodger Stadium.
- James from MississaugaMike…No mention of Brooks Robinson and his 16 consecutive Gold Gloves when discussing greatest fielding 3rd baggers with a caller the other night? I was a little surprised.
MW: Brooks is top of mind whenever one talks about great-fielding third basemen, but I knew the Schmidt story, so I went with that.
- chris m.This will probably be a repeat by the time you get to it, so I apologize if so. But -
How in the world can somebody have nearly 2,000 career MLB hits and get his FIRST ever walk-off hit last night?!?!
My theory is that the official stats database has dropped a column somewhere. Statistically that’s ridiculous.
Hope the west coast is treating you well.
- James (from the Church of the Double Steal)“Kenny Fidlin of the Sun points out that Vernon Wells has seen a whopping 26 pitches in his 11 at-bats in this series”
There is ZERO reason for this man to be hitting in the 3rd spot again this season.
MW: Except that on the road, he’s hitting .323/.353/.491, which isn’t a bad fit at all if Adam Lind is getting the day off.
- RenegadeThe Blue Jays need a big offensive overhaul if they’re going to compete next season.
Assuming Blair is right and Lind moves to first.
Snider in Left, Wells in Right (please?), Rios in Center.
They need to sign a decent hitting catcher (JP Arencibia is not ready), resign Scutaro if his demands are affordable and pay UP to get a LEGIT DH. I’m really tired of JP running out these has-beens in the DH spot.
MW: You’re not alone. That’s not a big offensive overhaul, though.
- RenegadeHi Mike,
Just wondering your thoughts on Scott Downs and his suitability for the closer’s role beyond this year. I don’t want to sound too reactionary, because Downs has been probably the most reliable out of the Jays ‘pen for at least the last 2 years. I must admit, however, that I continue to be skeptical of a guy with 16 Big League saves and a career WHIP comfortably above 1 as the unquestioned 9th inning option. Do you see him in that role beyond this season (assuming of course that he’s still in a Jays uniform after Friday)? Who else is a viable option internally? I haven’t given up on League yet, but he’s been majorly shaky this year, and I’ve heard some rumblings about possibly converting Cecil back as he closed in college. Just interested to hear your thoughts.
MW: I think that League, Frasor and Accardo are all viable in-house options with which to replace Downs. I don’t see him as an all-star superstar shut-down closer long-term, but he has certainly earned the position for now. Your arguments against of 16 saves (not his fault) , and career WHIP (ignoring the fact that he’s a thoroughly different pitcher the last three years) aren’t the right ones.
- JonNot sure why the Blue Jays are interested in dealing Halladay when he has to be the ace of any pitching staff competing with TB, NY and Bos in the very tough AL East. Don’t you consider Toronto a large market club Mike?
MW: Of course I do, but they’re not spending like a large-market club. If he says he’s going to test the free agent market after next season, the Blue Jays are obliged to see if they can make a big-splash deal for him.
- Mike CieslinskiI just read your comment, and I realized its from yesterday’s game… at least you can cut and paste it for this afternoon.
I’m really tired of tipping the cap to the opposing pitcher. When batters are making solid contact and driving balls to the warning track all day, but not finding the gap, who is really having issues?
- Greg WIn his last 7 at-bats, Vernon Wells has see 13 pitches.
This kids got a real eye for the ball.
MW: How is this news?
- JakeHey Mike,
According to MLB.com the Jays lead the Majors in both extra inning losses (10) and one run losses (20). I’m wondering what the single season records are for each category. I just want to see how Dees Bums stack up against all Dem Uder Bums. (Now I feel ashamed of myself for hoping that the Jays might be able to come away with this dubious record by season’s end.)
MW: Go look it up!
- BrandenAfter watching this offence over the last few years what makes JP think we can compete next year. If the Jays start trading guys like Doc, Rolen, Scut, Downs and Frasor now they have a chance at building a team for a couple years down the road. Lind Hill Snider and the young pitching will be here in two or three years. This should be the goal by adding more young talent and letting them gel as a team for a couple of years.
MW: If they actually get a legitimate DH/LF in there, this offense would be wholly different, I think.
- jason c wHey Mike,
Congratulations on almost making it through the really late-night Jays Talk episodes. Have a few questions for you if you don’t mind taking the time:
Now that JP Ricciardi has thrown out the idea of changing course from what we’ve been discussing the last few weeks, and trying to re-tool a bit and make a run in 2010, I’m wondering a bit about some possible moves that popped into my head.
1) What do you think about going after Carlos Delgado, assuming that the Mets don’t pick up his option? Obviously it would depend on price, but do you think that for $5 million or so Delgado would be a good option to get a big, veteran bat in the lineup?
2) Do you see any possible opportunity where the Jays can make a one-for-one swap of one of their young pitchers for another team’s young hitter of the same caliber, that could jump in and give us a possible offensive boost next year?
3) Assuming Halladay is here next year, what do you see as the Jays initial five-man rotation (assuming all those expected to be healthy, are healthy – a big assumption with this team!). I would assume you start with Halladay-Marcum-Romero, and would the final two be Richmond and Cecil?
Thanks a lot Mike!
MW: 1 – As much fun as it would be to have Delgado back here, I’m reluctant to hitch my wagon to a 38 year-old coming off hip surgery. 2 – No, but I haven’t really looked. I’m sure it’s out there. 3 – That’s probably the five-man out of spring training, unless McGowan is healthy.
- BretI’m so sick of JP it’s not even funny!
- toseHey again Mike,
One more question I forgot to ask before, if you don’t mind:
On the subject of Kevin Millar getting traded, and there possibil being interest in him (I would have to assume from an NL team), do you think the Jays could get as much for him as they did for Matt Stairs? The way Fabio Castro seems to be developping, it sure seems like the Jays got a great deal for Stairs, and if they could do the same with Millar that would be huge.
Thanks again!
MW: It would be, I doubt they’d do that well for Millar.
- BretDear Mike;
I am an avid Jays fan and I
prefer to listen to the Fan
Radio Network than listen to
the TV. but we no longer have a Fan Network in Sudbury. Do you know if there will be one in the near future? If so I would like to know the station number it will be on. Please let me know if you can.
Thank you;
Gayle Gayowski
MW: I don’t know anything about that, unfortunately. You can listen to us on the internet through the mlb.com audio package, or you can muster all your friends and neighbours and get that Sudbury station to get back on our network!
- Gayle GayowskiHi Mike,
I have a few questions about Roy Halladay’s situation. I am not very good in reading between the lines so forgive me for asking something that might be obvious to many people including yourself. Why is J.P. Ricciardi shopping Halladay around despite his no trade clause? Did Halladay want to be traded? Why would J.P. want to trade Halladay away, knowing full well that he is the franchise? (The whole situation reminds me of Chris Bosh’s situation with the Raptors, at least Bryan Colangelo is trying to add players who can make the team better to give Bosh something to think about.) The comment that Halladay made about wanting to see what direction the Jays take before deciding on a contract extension, on one hand that seems to indicate that he wants out, but then on the same news conference he indicates that he would rather stay in Toronto. I am a little confused to say the least. If Ricciardi’s motivation is to improve the team’s financial situation, I can sort of understand, but the Jays are not the Maple Leafs where a full house is pretty much guaranteed each game regardless of who’s in the team because of the support from our diehard Leafs fans. I also am confused as to why Halladay did not get a big contract like Vernon Wells, despite Halladay’s obvious value to the team.
Anthony
MW: Halladay didn’t get the Wells contract because he wasn’t a free agent at the right time. Obviously, the Blue Jays wouldn’t be discussing trading Halladay if he hadn’t given them an indication that he’d be willing to waive his no-trade clause. The only reason the Jays would want to trade him is to improve the team in a long-term sense.
- AnthonyHi Mike,
I’m feeling a little bit depressed about the Halladay issue. My heart didn’t want him to be traded, but it really did seem like the right thing to do as his market value will never be higher.
While it’s far from disastrous that we’ve got him for this year and probably next, I think JP has failed. He was unable to pull the trigger on a good deal when he held most of the cards. I just don’t think that making trades is his strong suit at all.
I know he was being hardballed, but the fact is, he couldn’t work something that suited both sides….and there were a lot of sides involved.
I just have the feeling that Roy will leave after 2010 as a free agent and we will get nothing for him.
And I find that depressing.
MW: There’s no way Halladay leaves for nothing after 2010. I don’t think J.P. has failed at all here – I think he played it perfectly. He held out for the proper payoff for letting Halladay go and (so far) didn’t get it, so he didn’t settle for less.
- OzRobMike,
While flipping channels last night, on sportsnet they threw up a stat concerning the Jays and 1 run ball games. It was mentioned that if they would have won 1/2 of the games they have lost by a run the Jays would be in 2nd place. Do you know their current 1 run game record?
What is Vernon Wells RISP this season? I saw the team as a whole has dropped to 11th in the AL with a .254 RISP average. Imagine if Wells was hitting the team average in RISP, because I have a feeling he is below the Mendosa line.
With JP last saying that Doc will not be dealt and that the Jays are going for it, do you think the Jays are going to shop Overbay and move Lind to 1B? Slide Wells to the DH role, move Rios to CF flanked by Bautista and Snider? Thoughts?
MW: The Jays, I believe, are 11-20 in one-run games. Wells is hitting an abysmal .162/.252/.286 with RISP this season. I don’t know that moving Lind to first is the right thing to do, though they may do it. They could shop Overbay and find a way to get a big-hitting first baseman and leave Lind as the DH with Snider in right. Wells won’t be moved to DH.
- Aaron KerWhy did no one deny the existence of a 5 year plan until year 6?
MW: That would be a good question if there was any merit to it.
- tim grafHi Mike
It is funny that your comment from two nights ago can be cut and pasted to last night’s loss. Yes, another one run game.
Looking at next year, I am not worried too much about starting pitching. The young guns seem to have the guts and ability to do the job at this level, Cecil and Romero especially. They are good pitchers.
What concerns me is the ability to hit at the right time. We all see the stats this year and last year. If you look at hits, runs produced, the jays should be up there, maybe not atop of the AL East, but pretty close to it, say 3-5 games behind and certainly not 12.
It is that ability to hit at the right time. I remember you say that when you see the hit and run numbers, it should average out – but….. it has been two years in a row now with the jays – it has been too many games with the difference of only one run. It is too much of a coincidence. If it happens once or twice, ok, it is just unlucky. When it happens too often, well…. it is no longer luck.
The problem with Rios and Wells is not their average, it is the lack of home runs. If they produce as many home runs as Howard or Pena, I bet the Jays would have won at least 6 more games than what they currently have.
Francis
MW: I think you’re right, but you’re comparing them to two of the top five home run hitters in the game.
- francisMike, this isn’t specifically related to last night’s late night (didn’t catch it), but I have on numerous occasions heard you criticize fans for booing Vernon Wells. I find the manner in which you criticize to be very smug and “holier than thou”, which is especially convenient when you always get the last word. But that’s radio, and its also besides the point for this conversation.
I am curious as to how you would suggest we voice our displeasure with his performance, and (more importantly) with the idiot that signed him to the 11th largest contract in baseball history?
I cannot possibly explain to you the frustration I felt in signing that contract both at the time it was signed, and today. But I will try. First, he was a player under control for another year and we gave him MAX money anyway. Now I will grant you that there was no way to predict that he’d get injured the next season- but it certainly was a possibility. Anybody with half a brain would have waited a year. Second, we’re not the Yankees! As a mid market team you can only hand that kind of money out to a sure thing, at no point in in his career has Vernon Wells ever been a sure thing (compared to A-Rod, Cabrera, or Manny Ramirez). The contract was stupid to give in that it didn’t take into account the “worst case scenario” which is exactly what played out. GM’s get fired for Much, much less than this. Booing Wells is a direct message to Blue Jays ownership that JP should be fired. Rest assured that in addition to this I use every opportunity I have to boo JP as well.
Secondly, Vernon Wells signed a McContract, and got pudgy. Almost immediately after he signed the contract it became clear that Vernon Wells had lost a step in the outfield. As much as his performance at the plate frustrates me, this drives me absolutely INSANE. I am a person who respects effort, and the only objective (read, not you telling me he’s doing everything he can) evidence I have is that he isn’t in the same shape he was in 4-5 years ago. This is not the same as a 37 year old wearing down after years of playing on turf, this is a guy in the prime of his career who suddenly got out of shape. That suggests to me that he isn’t working to earn that contract, regardless of what else we hear.
To me, there are two very clear scapegoats here and there are two ways to communicate my frustration. With my voice, and with my pocketbook (which, many have chosen to do but would only serve to cripple the franchise further). Now I am a man who fully comprehends the challenges that the Blue Jays face in trying to make the playoffs and I would like for you to tell me again, why I am not allowed to send a clear, vocal message to the player and to management that if we’re ever going to make the playoffs we have to be PERFECT. We can’t sign stupid contracts, and we can’t show up in camp out of shape and let our defense slide. If we do- you end up in our current situation. Its not unfortunate, its a direct result of a series poor decisions.
MW: No, it’s not. I’m glad that you were opposed to the Wells contract at the time of the signing, but you were one of a distinct few. If you’ll remember the hue and cry at the time was that if the Jays didn’t sign Wells they’d turn into the Expos, they’d be a joke, they’d lose the fan base, they’d never win anything ever, they’d have to start a whole new rebuilding process. Pretty much the exact same thing people have been saying all month about a potential trade of Roy Halladay. The contract was signed to appease the fans as much as anything else – which is always the wrong reason to do something. I don’t agree that Wells showed up out of shape the next year, nor do I believe he’s working less on his defense. He hired a personal trainer this past winter to work himself into even better shape, and I think his defense has slipped because of the hamstring issue (which is not to say I believe he’ll ever be a premier defender in centre again – I don’t). If you want to boo, go ahead and boo, but you’re stuck with him for another six years.
- DylanAs for Rios, I actually don’t boo him, but I believe that the fans who are, do so because he appears to be a clone of Vernon Wells. But seeing as he is still in shape, and his contract isn’t THAT bad- I keep my mouth shut (except when he inexplicably forgets he’s playing baseball).
- DylanMW. You can’t equate the current Roy Halladay situation with the Wells situation of a couple of years ago. As I mentioned in my first post, a midmarket team can only give big contracts to sure things. Roy Halladay is a sure thing, the decision on him is much murkier than the one on Wells, who was never a sure thing.
You also seem to be confusing fans who wanted Wells back (which I was one of) with fans who wanted Wells back at any cost (which there were, IMO, very few of). I don’t recall chatting with anyone who thought the Wells contract was a good idea. And I certainly don’t know anyone who believes that “bidding against yourself” is a good business strategy.
Also, I’m confused, if his defensive issues are related to an injury, why can’t he get back to being a premier defender? You are entitled to your opinion on why Wells’ defense has gotten poor but mine remains the same. I have a 300 pound cousin who “hired a personal trainer”. In my opinion the visual evidence that Wells is out of shape is almost as clear as the evidence that she is.
MW: A 35, 36 and 37 year-old Halladay is most definitely not a “sure thing”, as much as we might want to romanticize him. The injury that I believe is contributing to the drop-off in Wells’ defense is one from which he’ll never recover – that tear in the hamstring tendon that he suffered last season. If you choose to see him as a fat guy, that’s your prerogative. He’s not fat.
- DylanI think it’s time to anoint Jason Frasor the closer of the future…he has electric stuff!!!!
MW: League’s stuff is more electric.
- BernardMike, do you think I’m stupid for paying $800 for a 92/93 team signed World Series lithograph (to be signed next week)??
MW: Not if you can afford it.
- BernardPerfect..So we get to boo his a** (Vernon Wells) for 6 more years..How about paying me 20+mil a season to get booed?..
If the booing is getting to Wells then that is pretty pathetic..How else do you explain the fact that he plays better on the road?…Fans are p***d at this guy because he isn’t hitting..Should we be happy and fork out 10 bucks a beverage to watch this guy look at birds in the outfield?
Its many, many years of frustration that causes fans in this city to boo..
Ability wise, I still believe Wells is the best all around center fielder in baseball but he just doesn’t seem to have the brains to do it..
Unfortunately for Wells, he seems to be the scapegoat for the Jays inability to hit with RISP..I’m sure he feels better when he looks at his bank account..
- ray b“Thanks to that site, I can tell you that Dennis Martinez was 13-7, 2.35 lifetime against the Jays, with four complete-game shutouts, and Mike Flanagan was 17-7, 2.68 lifetime against the Jays, also with four complete-game shutouts.”
Mike,
This is the first time I’ve heard you refer to a “complete-game shutout”, but its a term that has gained ill-usage in the context above; a pitcher cannot pitch a shutout without throwing a complete game…
MW: It is redundant, it’s true, but I used that language because that’s how the commenter put it. No excuse, I know.
- Ken