MW: I can only imagine that his foot is still bothering him. I wouldn’t say it seriously detracts from his trade value, but it’s sure not helping. If they don’t trade Halladay, though, Snakeface isn’t going anywhere.

I’m a longtime listener of the Fan 590’s baseball coverage. While I’ve disagreed with you a number of times, I respect your encyclopedic baseball knowledge and class—whether it be cutting off callers who proclaim that so-and-so “sucks” to understanding and appreciating that players and management are real people who deserve to be treated respectfully.

I share your view. Which is why writing this is proving to be very difficult. It’s never easy to be fired/let go. Most of us have had it happen in our lives—and there are few worse feelings one can experience. That being said, I do think it’s time that the Jays move in another direction with regards to the General Manager position. I’m sure JP is a good man who tries his best. However, after eight years, we need to see if there’s someone else out there who can put together a contending team.

Here are my thoughts on the topic–

Many, including JP, point to the fact that we play in the same division as big spenders Boston and New York and this makes it very difficult for us to win the AL East/qualify for the playoffs. However, wasn’t one of the reasons JP was hired in 2001 was for his assertion that the Jays didn’t have to spend lots of money to compete? That we needed to do things smarter (a la Oakland A’s and Twins)? I heard him say this a number of years ago and read about it in Moneyball.

Further, when the spending was increased in the last three years, the players JP brought in failed (for one reason or the other) to deliver us a “contending team”. Notice that I didn’t write “World Series title”, “American League champion”, “division winner” or even “playoff team”? I used the term “contending team”. At the end of the day, that’s the minimum I’m seeking in a General Manager—one that provides me with a truly interesting September every few years. As a fan who spends thousands of dollars on tickets/stadium food/merchandise each year, I don’t think it’s too much to ask. I think eight years is more than enough time to determine the overall effectiveness of a GM (heck, we gave Frank Thomas 60 at bats last year to prove he could contribute!). During Ricciardi’s time at the helm, we’ve gone through 4 different managers, an almost total overhaul of the major league roster (can’t think of anyone besides Halladay and Wells who are still around) and even a club president. During this same period, the vast majority of Major League Baseball teams (23 in all?) have secured a playoff birth at one point or the other.

Moreover, JP has also done very little to earn the affection of Torontonians. Whether it be choosing to live in the US during the season (I do realize that it may not really impact his effectiveness—but it does send the wrong message to the city and perception counts for a lot), lying to fans about Ryan’s injury or casting dispersions on Adam Dunn’s character, JP has been something less than a PR star. This wouldn’t matter very much if he was delivering contending teams. However, it just provides another point of aggravation after eight years of non-contention.

Mike, I know you’re a very smart guy and someone who, to a certain degree, supports JP and the job he’s doing. I also know you’ll be able to pull out a number of stats and/or points in support of JP. At the end of the day, as someone who pays his own way to games and is passionate about the game in general and this team in particular, I just feel that eight is enough to make a call on the GM.

MW: And you’re entitled to that opinion. He hasn’t delivered a contending team in eight years (though do remember that the first three years were spent paring payroll and such – they couldn’t have been expected to compete then). I’m sorry, I can’t blame him for the Jays’ failures the last two seasons, when they fielded really good teams but fell short. Two things with which I have to take issue – yes, Ricciardi said in 2001 that he could win cheap, but that year the Yankees led the bigs with a $109 million payroll. Two years later, they were at $180 million. And while you point out that a whole whack of other teams have made the playoffs since J.P. came along, you fail to point out that only ONCE has an A.L. East team other than the Yankees and Red Sox qualified for the post-season in that time frame.

Very true Mike, howecer you fail to point out that their are only three teams in the AL east other than the yankees and the redsox.
So only the Jays and Orioles have not made the playoffs in that time frame.

MW: Are you back to cutting-and-pasting entire long comments? It’s really counter-productive, I have to tell you. Yes, only the Jays and Orioles have not made the playoffs in that time frame, but the Rays have only made it once. That’s the point.

MW: There’s no way to know for sure whether a guy will be a Super 2 or not. It’s not a set number of days. I think the Jays probably need a couple more weeks to be safe.

MW: Probably.

MW: Because he would seem to have quite a bit of value now, and he’ll be 34 when he hits free agency after 2010.

Well, maybe the Canadian Hall of Fame in St. Mary’s

____________________________

MW: This is from the same e-mail address as the stat lady.

Yea, she’s my mom. I don’t think you’re reading her posts very well…..or maybe you just want to be contrary where the Leafs are concerned.

MW: I don’t want to be contrary, I just want to make sure the truth gets out there, and hers was a pretty poor argument for someone who calls herself the stat lady. Tom and Bob Elliott are already in the Canadian Ball hall.

MW: I think that they’ll try to trade Millar (I hear they might be interest!). They’d look to trade Rolen, Downs and Overbay if Halladay gets traded.

0-0 fastball strike (swinging)

0-1 slider strike (swinging)

0-2 slider ball

1-2 slider ball

2-2 slider (foul ball)

2-2 fastball (ball…..set up pitch)

3-2 slider (strike three swinging)

Now I was watching this with a friend of mine. With first base open at the time of the at bat and Rzepczynski getting ahead with the first fastball, I mentioned to my friend that Seattle’s shortstop Cedeno was on deck and was hitting under .200 (BA) and because of him not being much of a threat with the bat, Saunders was not going to get anything good to hit for the rest of the at bat. Sure enough he got a steady diet of junk, topped off with a 3-2 slider.
The concept here being that he wasn’t too concerned if he walked Saunders because he wasn’t worried about pitching to Cedeno with the bases loaded. Rance Mulliniks said the same thing right after the 3-2 slider.
This is the same concept of protection (or lack there of) that you and I have debated about over the course of this season. When these situations come up it seems so obvious to me what’s going on. To people like Rance who have played the game it seems pretty clear what’s going on. I’m not sure why you don’t think this concept exists. To me, if someone puts together a metric that suggests that something (a concept) is not statistically significant or doesn’t exist but I witness this concept take place over and over, my first thought would be that maybe the person who put the metric together failed to capture something in the equation. We see this concept of protection or lacks there of all the time but you’re still convinced it doesn’t exist……What’s up with that Mike?

MW: I trust the math, the numbers, the facts more than I trust our impressions of things.

I have a question that really confuses me – what is so important about OPS? OBP is important because it’s a single stat that calculates the frequency of someone being on base, slugging is important for how many bases per at bat, but those two adding together simply doesn’t make much sense. It doesn’t mean anything realistically, and it’s hard to find stuff to prove that that stat is so important. I don’t know if I’m looking at it wrongly, or if it’s overlooked.
It is two separate stats added together, and isn’t it just as useless as “Wins + Losses”?

I don’t get it.
Looking forward to you solving the question I had for, like about a year.

MW: It’s not perfect, no stat is, but it gives a good overview and is a solid starting point for further delvage. But no, on it’s own, OPS doesn’t give you a clear picture at all. There’s no difference between a walk-free slugger who hits .280/.310/.500 and a power-free walk machine who hits .310/.405/.405.