11:50 PM Eastern
It’s funny how an unexpectedly terrific start can shift expectations in a hurry, and it’s funny how a couple of really ugly patches can shift them way farther back the other way.
I don’t know how many times I’ve asked on the air and in this space - “What kind of season did you expect the Jays to have?” If I’d said in March that they’d be two games under .500 at the break, most people would have thought that was about right or that that was a little better than expected (I can’t tell you how many people told me before the season that the Jays were a 90+ loss team that would be lucky to stay out of last place). But it’s the way they’ve done it that’s made it so hard to take.
A 27-14 start. A 9-game losing streak. This current run on which they’ve lost 13 of their last 17. If you take out the great start, the Jays are 17-32 (a 56-106 pace). If you take out the two ugly patches, they’re 40-24 (a 101-61 pace). It’s kind of crazy.
The Jays got off to that great start on the backs of their starting pitchers - led by Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond and Brian Tallet, and the great starts to the season by Marco Scutaro, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, who absolutely killed it the first month.
The top two have come crashing back to Earth. Since the end of May, Scutaro has hit .265/.349/.367 and Hill is at .233/.281/.440. Lind has been the saving grace, hitting .331/.394/.634 over the same period, while Scott Rolen has come on like gangbusters as well.
We knew that Scutaro and Hill wouldn’t be able to keep it up, but we thought that when they got cold, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios would heat up. It hasn’t happened. Since the end of May, Wells has struggled along at .259/.299/.415 - and that’s despite a great road trip just concluded for him - he hit .372/.400/.581 on the 10-gamer in which the Jays went 2-8. Rios, since the end of May, has hit .239/.288/.376.
With the DH spot shared by various incarnations of Millinglucctistadams (go ahead, try to pronounce it), the Jays have basically been relying on Lind and Rolen for their ENTIRE offense since the end of May, and it has cost them. Since then, they’re 15-22 - a .405 winning percentage, or a pace to go 66-96 over a full season.
The bottom line is, of course, that people have to start hitting.
Just for the sake of completeness - Rolen, since the end of May, has hit .341/.374/.496 and Lyle Overbay has hit .220/.383/.400 - that’s all the regulars.
The offensive numbers, with the exceptions of Lind and Rolen, and, to a lesser extent, Overbay, are pretty disgusting.
The pitching has been far better than expected, especially given the fact that there are five starters on the disabled list and there have been pretty much all season. Marc Rzepczynski looked very good again today, Ricky Romero has been a godsend, Brian Tallet has been outstanding save for three starts, and Brett Cecil has been the only rookie (with more than two starts) who has really looked like a rookie out there. If only this team could hit.
I’m stunned, by the way, that I haven’t heard from any of the “Cito and his coaches have fixed the hitters” folks, who were so vocal over the first six weeks of the season.
Before the season, and at other times, I mentioned that the major failing of this particular front office has been its unwillingness to make the “sell” trade at the July 31st deadline. Those types of trades have netted, say, Tampa Bay, players like Scott Kazmir and Dioner Navarro. This year, though, wasn’t supposed to be the year that the Jays would find themselves stuck in-between at the deadline. They were going to be out of it, and would be willing to be sellers. I thought, though, that we’d be talking about guys like Rolen, Overbay, Scutaro, Barajas and B.J. Ryan. Heck, maybe even Matt Clement.
Instead, Ryan is gone, the rumour mill is centred around Roy Halladay, and people around these parts can’t wait to get rid of Wells and Rios.
Weird what expectations can do.
Here’s today’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure
The all-star break is upon us, and I’m going to take a blogging break for the next four days. This will be the last post until Friday night unless the Jays make a major move.
I will, however, be on the radio on Monday and Tuesday, hosting Baseball Today at noon Eastern on the Fan590 and on this very website (they’re giving me Wednesday and Thursday for battery-recharging). Monday’s show will feature Shi Davidi, who is in St. Louis for the all-star game and will have been at the news conference announcing the starting pitchers (Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum, I’m pretty sure), and we’ll also speak to minor-league guru Lisa Winston of milb.com about this afternoon (and evening)’s Futures Game, as well as some other minor-leaguey stuff. Tuesday we’ll have open phones to talk about all-star games and their place in the current era.
I may pop on here once or twice during the week to answer comments, but they might have to wait until Friday.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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How hasn’t Jose Bautista earned himself the starting LF job yet? He’s the on-basingest guy on the team!
MW: He sure is, leading the team with a .400 obp at the break. .415 against lefties and .387 against righties.
- PeteHi Mike. Two comments; first off, as a diehard fan it isn’t how the team does compared to expectations that I care about. It is how the team actually performs and it really stings to see them to fall back below .500.
Secondly, I think JP’s biggest failing this offseasson was not getting another veteran SP. While I appreciate that Litsch’s injury, Purcey’s ineffectiveness, Janssen’s inability to “miss barrels” and other rookie injuries aren’t his fault, one could see going into the year that the Jays were not deep at SP. Another decent SP would have meant Tallet could in the bullpen and we could still have three rookies in the rotation for development. Not getting another SP in the offseason was bad enough; not grabbing another to build on a 27-14 start was unacceptable.
MW: 1 - Yes, it does, but you have to realize what this team actually is, and that’s one that had no business being 27-14. Unfortunately, they fell back to Earth pretty hard. 2 - It’s not as though there are starting pitchers available in trade in mid-May. The Jays tried to bring in a couple of cheap veteran starting pitchers in the off-season, but neither Matt Clement nor Mike Maroth was up to the task. If Litsch hadn’t blown up, or if McGowan hadn’t been set back, then they’d still have had room for the three rookies. And besides, I’d rather see them give guys like Purcey, Romero, Richmond and Cecil a shot than see them sign a guy like Paul Byrd.
- ZackMW: I thought, though, that we’d be talking about guys like Rolen, Overbay, Scutaro, Barajas and B.J. Ryan. Heck, maybe even Matt Clement.
Instead, Ryan is gone, the rumour mill is centred around Roy Halladay, and people around these parts can’t wait to get rid of Wells and Rios.
Weird what expectations can do.
Just a second, Mike. The talk around Halladay wasn’t started by disgruntled fans. The talk about Ryan wasn’t generated out here either. Those two events came right out of the front office. Nothing to do with our ‘expectations’. We don’t have any. We’ve been trained like Pavlov trained his dogs not to expect very much out of this team. But I suspect even Pavlov’s dogs got a bit tired and snappy sometimes.
This season, like last season, has been too up-and-down for me. I’d like a nice little fire sale, some intelligent acquisitions for a change, a recognition that hitting is almost as important as pitching and an end to unsuccessful retreads.
MW: But how are you going to find the successful retreads if you don’t go through the unsuccessful ones? I’m not blaming disgruntled fans for the Halladay rumours and the Ryan release - how did you infer that? And if you think the fans have been trained not to expect too much from this team, go back and read through the comments section from the first week or two of May.
- isabella reyesMike. I have a trivia question for you. Now that we’ve had the first no-hitter of the season, who are the 4 framchises in MLB that have never had a no-hitter? The only clue I’ll give is it’s 1 AL team and 3 NL teams. Who are they? One of the NL teams is a major surprise.
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: I know that it’s the Mets and Padres for sure. Rays and Rockies?
- PeterNo matter how you slice it this 2009 Jays team should not be getting cut a lot of slack as to their present won/loss record. I mean, by some saying it’s o.k. because now, this is where they expected the Jays to be during the last off season!
A 27-14 start should have been like blood in the water to hungry sharks. They should have believed in themselves enough at that point of the season to really take advantage of such a fantastic start and never looked back.
Even after the hard luck 0-9 road trip earlier this year, they should have been able to keep pace with the big boys. Losing 13 of their last 17 is painful when you think of the tough way they lost some and down right aggrevating as to the ones they should have one.
I’m not bashing the players nor the coaching or managers here, however there most certainly have been some terrible failures from both sides.
Sure RISP has been a real thorn for the Jays of late and to include last season. However it is an unfair stat to lay on a whole team when there are about 3 guys who have failed miserably at bringing home base runners.
The worst of the worst in that group of risp killers!What’s going on with Vernon? He can’t seem to pick up the ball when the facing a guy who is pitching from the stretch - no excuse for a vet with the talent he has.
No complaints here as to pitching, it has faired very well thus far and given the team a chance to win many a game that was lost.
Loyalty towards a player is commendable - to a point. Cito and his crew go beyond that as to wanting to be a “players manager” or whatever it is. I figure there has been at the very least 7-8 wins pushed into the loss column by poor manager decisions. Cito for whatever reason does not go with the percentages as most managers would on some obvious plays that call for basic moves or calls. Leaving a batting line-up that stunk for so long is going overboard as to loyalty. Go figure! No way could he ever manage an NL team - far too complicated!
Upper managment, I would not blame JP for a lot of the negatives. He has done a more than effective job during his term thus far and brought in some great players. It’s not difficult to figure out why they brought in Cito and give him the contract and time they did. Knowing there would be plenty of kids coming up from the minors over the next couple of seasons and Cito is most definately the guy to groom them and help them along. That is for sure his strength.
For the most part the offense is just not hungry enough at the right time! When it comes to consistency at the plate! Other than Scoot, Rolen, Hill, Overbay and of course young Adam Lind it is limited or invisible to say the least.
I did not expect a pennant from the Jays this season. However, I was not prepared to be one of the crowd that said this season will be a bust. They were better than that heading into spring training. My biggest concern for this season was pitching. That concern has been laid to rest thus far into the season. JP put together his best teams over the last couple of seasons and some of the guys with the longest tenure as a Jay have just plain failed!
Forget about Cito and the boys “fixing” the hitting issues. Guys who have been in this league for years have memory muscle that takes over when it comes time to hit. Little things like “choking up” on the bat or very slight adjustments with their feet at the plate is about it as to major changes. Take Rolen for example, last season his bottom hand was at the knob of the bat - this season it’s two fingers below that. That’s a pro making his own adjustments after recognizing his limitiations as time goes on. The only thing Cito can do as to hitting is coach the younger guys by teaching patience.
I know it’s a novel here Mike. Just my own mid season observations. No one will ever convince me however, this team should not be about 10 or more wins better than their record shows. The 1 and 2 run game losses of late should have been wins for the most part as opporunities were let slip away. The last series in Baltimore should have been a sweep for the Jays heading into the break! Too many excuses, too many non-moves or non-changes and not enough basics as to this current season!
Thank you, and enjoy the well deserved break.
MW: I don’t think it’s fair to lay 7 or 8 losses at the feet of the manager, nor do I think that “belief in themselves” can help a team win a bunch of games. You’re very right about the RISP issues, though - it continues to be infuriating.
- Bob from BurlingtonI read that the Jays are a financial mess. Thanks to Ricciardi. You know almost everything that he has touched has not been beneficial to the team. I can’t believe what this team used to be and what it is now. It’s sad.
MW: I don’t know that at all, because it’s not true.
- Danny from MapleMike,
You may not see this until Friday but I’m going to ask you anyways. Assuming that Halladay pitches for three innings in the All-Star game, do you think we will be asked to start on Saturday (three-days rest) or Sunday at home versus Boston? In either case, what do you see the order of the starting rotation looking like to begin the second half?
Thanks. Love your show.
MW: You’re right, I didn’t see this until Friday, so it’s not exactly fair to say that the rotation out of the break will be Romero/Rzepczynski/Halladay/Cecil. I never would have thought that back when you asked. I would, though, have said that all-star starters generally go no more than two innings nowadays and would have thought that the Jays could easily start him Saturday. But then look at the schedule. By starting Halladay on Sunday, if he goes on his regular day the rest of the season he would face the Red Sox and Rays four times each and the Yankees twice the rest of the way. If he had started Saturday, then by going on his regular day the rest of the season he would still face the Red Sox four times, but would face the Yankees and Rays only once each.
- Wiffleballs1.) If the Jays are 17th in the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position, doesn’t that make them about average for the league? For what it’s worth, the number one team in that category is the Baltimore Orioles (hitting an impressive .302 to the Jays’ .261). Is the problem just that every other team in their division has had better LUCK hitting with RISP?
B.) In terms of On-base percentage with runners in scoring position in the AL the first four teams are Boston, Baltimore, New York, and Tampa. Toronto is 10th. If OBP is more of an indicator of skill, is getting on base with runners in scoring position something the Jays do poorly (in comparison with the other teams in their division)?
iii.) Should we (fans) even care about OBP with RISP? I’m looking forward to hearing more about this kind of thing on Baseball Today!
Thanks for your comments.
MW: 1 - It makes the Jays about average for the majors, but the fact that they’re so far above average in the overall is what’s troubling. The Yankees and Rays are also worse with runners in scoring position than they are overall (but only two points for the Rays), while the Red Sox and Orioles are much better. B - The Jays are 19th in the majors in OBP with RISP, but at .349, compared to .337 overall. iii - Yes, you should. Though hits tend to help more.
- SpencerHey Mike, once again, great blog.
It’s funny how expectations do change and certainly, I was on the 27-14 bandwagon and hoping for the magical 100 win season, or at least, a playoff spot. Instead, you’re right, the Jays limp into the all-star break two games under .500.
I looked at the last road trip’s stats and just saw sub-par hitting, and the RISP stat is on par with the rest of the hitting. (96-376, .255; RISP 24-96, .250).
Delucci’s 1-20 didn’t help, but I think that the Jays have to continue to give him a shot given his productivity prior to 2008.
I really don’t think trading Halladay’s the answer. He is very much a leader in the pitching rotation, a leader on the team, and a leader in the community. I think that if the Jays trade Halladay, they’ll be trading away the spirit of the pitching staff. I have to think that the credit to the pitching is not only due to the pitching staff, but perhaps to the inspiration that Halladay provides to the staff. I think that losing Halliday will result in a much higher ERA from the rookies.
Really, batting is what needs to be concentrated on. Perhaps the saying goes — you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. When Gibbons was fired and Cito brought on in Philly, the hitting immediately improved and the team was indeed on fire until the 9 game losing streak. The hitting coach and Cito were given credit for this. Now, with almost an entire season since the change, perhaps the players are going back to their old routine. Wells’ at home BA is a mystery. Rios continues to swing inconsistently (but is improving, just needs to recongnize the down and away pitches). The rest of the team has hot and cold bouts and just can’t seem to get it together right now.
I don’t know what kind of trades the Jays want to make to improve. The pitching has been a very welcome surprise given the injuries. I think the team has the potential to do extremely well
I think that the team is defeating itself, and I don’t know if trading one piece of the roster for another will improve this.
- TimFrankly I wince each time I hear/read your reference to the 90-loss expectations this year. My expectations for this year have always been for improvement over last year. Not a playoff berth, but at least improvement on the ten games over .500 last season.
Sure +14 or +16 gets them very close to 90 wins but I would take that as a big step to 2010.
As it turns out the pitching has not been the weakness, to the credit of JP and his team and their ability to develop pitching. It may not be totally fair but I lay the blame at Wells & Rios hitting. I agree with you that even if they had maintained a decent average with men in scoring position the Jays would be much better now. Yesterday’s game was typical - Wells has an awfull at-bat with men on base, then lashes a single in the 8th with 2 out.
Last season there much talk about how the Jays sent Lind down to Syracuse with only 19 at-bats. Do you think that Delucci deserves more at-bats before they decide that one hit in 20-something trips is enough ? He’s supposed to be a veteran compared to what Lind was last season.
MW: I wasn’t expecting to see Dellucci here after the break, but he’s still here. I don’t know why you would have expected the Jays to improve over their 86 wins of last season. You and Bob McCown were just about the only ones.
- RezI have noticed a few things..Is Alex Anthopoulos answering a few more questions then normal?..Could he be next in line for a GM job?..I would hope they would be looking for an experienced GM once Riccardi is gone..
The Jays lead the AL in hits, 3rd in batting average and 2nd in total bases..Yet they sit 7th in runs scored..Wells is the big money guy and yet his RISP is .177..The Jays have had problems with their RISP for the last 3 seasons..
The pitching has been ok..Not great but good enough..How much of a difference will Marcum and Mcgowan really make?..These guys haven’t won more then 12 games in any season..I’m getting tired of the “injury excuses” regarding the Jays pitching..The problem has been RISP..They seem to be unable to get the big hit when they need it..
MW: They do seem to be unable to get that big hit. Along with your numbers, they’re also 7th in the AL (13th in the majors) in on-base percentage and 6th in the AL (8th in the majors) in slugging percentage, which has a big effect on where they are as far as runs scored.
- raybHi Mike
In my last blog to you I asked if the Jays should pursue Huff and ditch Overbay and you said Overbay is having a better season.
I just check the stats and found these
Overbay -Avg/OBP/Slg
.250/.371/.460
Huff - 259/327/424.
I agree, based on these stats, Overbay looked better.
But if you check RSIPs, Overbay is .259 , Huff .329
With runners on, Overbay .274
Huff .325
Overbay only had two chances with bases loaded this year and he hit zero, small sample, I agree.
Huff though, with bases loaded batted .571 WOW, that is Pat Tabler’s territory.
Huff had more at bat than Overbay, but produces only slightly more runs than Overbay. This tells me that when Huff hit, he had less men in scoring position than Overbay.
The question here is - if Huff were playing for the Jays right now, would he have had better RBIs and run numbers? Based on the RSIP #, I would say so, plus he would hit lower in the batting order than Overbay.
It is an interesting exercise to look at these stats. Based on the above, I would still say that Huff is a better offensive player than Overbay, but we can agree to disagree.
Have a nice break Mike, your baseball show is great, you deserve a rest. Will all of them be eventually posted on audio demand?
Francis
MW: I don’t know about audio on demand, but it’s available on a podcast. Huff and Overbay’s numbers with runners in scoring position are indeed very different, but it’s a pretty small sample size.
- francisRE: my previous post.
I now see the topic of hitting with RISP came up yesterday; sorry for the repeat.
I guess in light of the stats given by you and other commenters on the blog yesterday, my question should be: if the success rate a team has hitting with RISP has little effect on the standings (e.g. Baltimore), how much does it reflect on “how good” a team actually is?
I still think the answer is that it doesn’t. Surely it is just a matter of chance as to whether a team gets a bunch of hits in one inning or spreads those hits over several innings. As you might say (albeit more elegantly), a hitter can’t possibly time the occasions he gets a hit with the occasions when there happens to be someone on base ahead of him.
It’s luck, right?
MW: It’s not all luck. The better the hitter, the better the opportunity to do something positive, with runners in scoring position or otherwise.
- SpencerHi Mike, I am very curious why JP went public at all about trading Halladay. I am not a JP hater, I think the Blue Jays outside of the Adams pic have drafted very well during JPs tenure. What I dont understand is why go public, surely he can let other GMs know that if he gets the right offer he would trade Halladay. I see the real possibility of angering Halladay. Does JP need to thow it out there to ready the fans in case a deal comes along. What do you think Mike? THanks
MW: I don’t know that they’ve drafted VERY well other than Russ Adams, but they’ve certainly found a few gems in the draft, for sure. Ricciardi didn’t throw anything out anywhere about trading Halladay - he was asked a question, and he answered it.
- Douglas McCallumCan you talk or comment a bit about how much Wells sucks on defense now? The gold gloves are thing of the past. According to fangraphs.com, he’s at -31.9 runs/150 games on defense. That’s 3 games lost purely on defense! It’s a not a 1-year fluke, either. Last year he was at -24.0 runs/150 games. Subjectively he has looked slow and has had several near misses that would have been sure outs 5 years ago. The Jays should at the very least move Rios into CF.
MW: We’ve talked about Wells’ having lost a step or three a few times in this space, but to say he sucks on defense is going too far. You knew that, though.
- mjMike,
Don’t you think that when you wake up on June 1st at 29-24 coming off a series win over Boston after dropping 9 in a row, JP should have looked at the roster and added some help?
Then on July 1 with the team 41-36 scratching for wins and barley holding on, JP should have looked at the roster and added help?
Now, it appears it is too late. The Jays had a chance to play some meaningful games in September and they blew it. The fans that were coming around are now turning away again. I understand setting the year up as a rebuilding or development year. But when you are in the thick of things in June, you have to rethink your focus. JP owed it to the fans and to the players and coaches in the locker room. Frankly if the The Toronto Blue Jays organization does not care about winning, the fans will not care about the Blue Jays.
How many more weeks until hockey/basketball starts?
MW: Hockey stopped?
- PJIf Toronto has to move Roy Halladay, it must be in a package with Vernon Wells and his contract, it’s total value. Toronto wants a #2 starter or an equal quality position player plus a top prospect; in return Toronto take back $8-10 million, 2-3 year contract mistake(s). Offers?
MW: There’s not a chance the Jays get a #2 starter and a top prospect if Wells is included in the deal.
- Richard SpackmanHey Mike,
How many innings do you think Maddon will give Hill and Jeter until he gets all his 4 infielders playing in the all-star game? You think Aaron will even get to have an at-bat?
MW: Yes, that’s just silly. Hill wound up playing seven innings, so you owe Maddon an apology.
- a.j.I think it’s unrealistic, given their contracts and production, to expect that Wells and/or Rios will be moved. However, on another club Overbay’s great on-base percentage might be a virtue. On this one, given that the mashers aren’t mashing, he’s just another guy who’s left on base. What we need is for the devil to show up at my house, we make a deal, and Joe Hardy mysteriously shows up at JP’s door.
MW: Joe Hardy would be an awesome addition to this team!
- Richard HennesseyYet another great start by a promising young starter, who really shouldnt even be up in the majors, wasted.
who would have thought that with all the injuries to the starting pitching that the age old jays issue of driving runners in would rear its ugly head.
if you will remember, I was one of those listenters/readers that never bought into the “the guys are hitting cause of Cito” crap. I really wish those that were promoting this kinard would stand up and explain what is going on right now.
as you and others have astutely pointed out, the jays dont even suffer from a lack of hitting..they lead the bigs in hits. they simply are not hitting with RISP. whats worse, they started the year hitting around 300 RISP which leads me to believe, to reach their current level of approx. 260, they must have REALLY fallen off the table.
i fully realize there is no such thing as a clutch hitter, but is there such a thing as an “unclutch” hitter? im beginning to wonder.
my questions are
1. Manny Acta has been fired. I think he would be a prefet fit for the jays. He just didnt have the pieces in washington. the jays need to let cito and his “lose the battle to win the war” and batting millar fourth mentality go. no acta wont win them any games, but unlike gaston, he wont lose them any either.
2. dont you think its time to trade rolen? i seriously do not believe he will hold up in the second half. He is a placeholder and as much fun as it is to watch him, if the jays can actually get a reasonable prospect for him, its time to sell high on someone.
MW: 1 - There’s no movement afoot to fire Cito, so it doesn’t matter how good a fit Acta is. I like him as a manager, though there were complaints that he was too robotic. 2 - If the Jays can set themselves up at third base for the next few years, then trading Rolen would be a very good idea. Edwin Encarnacion isn’t the answer, though.
- General Zodhey mike
been a little bit since my last post. i have two ?s id like to get your opinion on. but first i’m overjoyed that halladay and hill are starters in the all star game finally even though hill is starting by default. my first question is if IF doc gets traded this year what do you think the reaction will be from the organisation more specifically the players? i would like to think since roy is so respected in the clubhouse they would understand him wanting to go somewhere he can win a series. me as a die hard jays fan as long as he didn’t go to yanks or red sox i would not be as p***d off as i might be if he goes. he deserves to win and if the jays aren’t gonna get their stuff together i am behind him.
my second question is doesnt it seem like every year the jays pitchers get hurt far more then most teams. i know injuries are apart of baseball but i mean this is just getting ridiculous do you think if we had dave duncan as the pitching coach things might change or its just year after year fluke after fluke. i think if our starters were always healthy wed be contenders every year. although our bullpen needs retooling league needs to go and carlson is getting close to the edge of the cliff too. league blows up more then anyone on the team and i’ve told you before i don’t trust him. we got rid of blow j now get rid of the rest of the dead weight in league and maybe carlson.
thanks mike
MW: 1 - I think that the players would be disappointed if Halladay were to get traded, regardless of the return. 2 - There’s no reason to get rid of either League or Carlson. I don’t think one can reasonably blame the pitching coach for the injuries.
- joe from new jerseyMike,
I wonder, what do you think J.P. would need to get to trade Wells and Rios?
I believe Wells’ contact is heavely backloaded and the Jays would be lucky to be able to give the contract away. And right now Rios for Cain sounds pretty good.
The issue is not how good either of those two guys are because they are both very talented. The issue is how their contract might limit what moves you can make.
MW: Wells’ contract limits his value in trade significantly, Rios’ doesn’t.
- JWMike - my apologies for asking in my last post for your thoughts on Looch staying with the Jays after the break. I just saw that you gave your opinion in the “Blanking” post. I read your posts in the wrong order - a blog fault on my part.
I think it was Jerry I heard mention Travis was hurt in a collision at home. I trust it is not a set back for him. The cynic in me thinks the Jays have so many guys on the DL, they are now practicing injuries in AAA !
MW: It’s not a bad idea!
- RezAs a season ticket holder for many years, I would be more than a bit disappointed to see management give up on what we’ve been promised. Last year they fixed the hitting. This year the surgeons are working on fixing the pitching.
We cut Russ Adams loose for a 1-14 (or so) Dellucci?
Now I hear stories that Halladay and Rolen may be traded!!
Are we building a team or not?
I won’t threaten to let go of my 4 tickets. I’ll just do it.
John
MW: You can’t honestly be upset about the Adams/Dellucci switch. They’re the same guy, just wing-and-a-prayer placeholders.
- JohnRe:”The bottom line is, of course, that people have to start hitting”
This team did not hit in 2007 or 2008. The lack of offense since the seductive start is simply a return to form.
In the end the failure belongs to JP. His talent assessment has on full display for 9 years now. And so, when Snider is sent down, the best replacements his farm talent pool can offer are Inglett, Adams and now DeLucci. If that isn’t an indictment what is?
In 9 years, he has Hill and Lind to show for his position player selections and development. That is woeful. Who is ready to step in at short next year if Scutaro is gone. How about third base in 2011 when Rolen is gone. Any catchers ready to step in. Outfielders? First basemen? Where is the pipeline?
In the same time period, the Red Sox have brought in Youklis, Pedroia, Lowerie, and Ellsbury, and arguably Lowell (they traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibel Sanchez for him and Beckett). The Sox system continues to produce players which allows them to spend more productively on free agents.
With the contracts handed out by JP (and approved by the former baseball wiz Godfrey) the franchise is in a poorer position today that when JP inherited the payroll disaster (his view) from Gord Ash. He now has 12.5% of next years budget tied up in Ryan, 15.6% in Vernon, 12.1% in Rios, 2.4% in Johnny Mac and 8.8% in Overbay or roughly 52% in non-productive assets. Add Hill, Downs, Halladay, and some of the lesser lights like Accardo, and you are looking at the 2010 edition of the Jays.
The team is going nowhere. It is baseball’s version of the hockey Leafs. Destined to be mediocre until it sweeps the house clean and finds good experienced people with a plan, consistently executed, to build a pipeline that can at the very least allow the team the hope of competing.
MW: Or it’s one of the eight or ten best teams in the game. You can’t credit the Red Sox for Lowell, because he was foisted upon them by the Marlins - they weren’t going to make the Beckett deal unless the Sox took his bad (at the time) contract. Some of the others you mention were drafted by Boston because the Sox were willing to pay over slot, and the Jays weren’t. That has nothing to do with Ricciardi. The Jays’ idea was to hoard a big whack of good young pitching, and they figured they could turn the excess into good young hitting. Unfortunately, too much of the good young pitching got hurt. If you want to be upset about something, blame the fact that that strategy didn’t work.
- Steven Zerkeri gotta hand it to you.
you were right. halladay is starting the all star game over greinke.
i’m shocked.
MW: Every once in a while………
- joshGood Afternoon Mike,
Have you heard anything regarding the contract negoiations with the Jays first round draft pick this year? Is he still unsigned? Are any other draft picks from this year signed? Thanks as always Mike and keep up the great work.
Regards,
MW: I haven’t heard anything. The Jays did just sign their fourth-rounder, Ryan Goins, though.
- TommyHey Mike -
Enjoyed your comments as always. One thing that seems to stick out about this and other recent Jays teams is that they lack grit and leadership. When teams with at least some talent under-perform like the Jays do (such as hitting with runners in scoring position) it always seems as though it’s because there are no natural leaders who always produce in the clutch. Teams like Boston always seem to find guys who hit when they need it and the Jays seem to mostly find guys who don’t. Wells and Rios are just awful. If it weren’t for Scott Rolen and Roy Halladay who at least leads by example they’d be nowhere, but they need more gritty players in my opinion. Seems to me Matt Stairs sort of fit that mold.
MW: Matt Stairs is a career .262 hitter with runners in scoring position. Grit and leadership are not what’s lacking on this Jays’ team, big hits are. You can’t grit your way into a hit.
- Brian DePoeHi Mike, The fact Halladay is now cosidering going to a winning team has got to spell the end for Ricciardi. He should have been looking at dealing players who cannot hit with runners in scoring position (Wells Rios). Getting rid of Halladay will be a slap in the face to Blue Jay fans. If they do deal Halladay I hope they break all up and just stick with those worth hanging on to eg Hill, Lind & Romero.
- Mike UThanks for the great summary of the season. A very objective rundown. You are exactly right, if someone said at the outset the Jays would have the record they now have at the break, I’d have said, “No surprise there.” At least it’s been more entertaining than just plodding along at .500 since April. Let’s hope it stays interesting one way or another.
- JCPS One writer says JP would not have floated the Halladay trade bait without the owners’ approval. Another says he let it go off the cuff with his loose lips. We’ve seen the latter before. Do you know which one is correct?
MW: Ricciardi didn’t float any Halladay trade bait. He really didn’t say anything differently than he’d said in the past - that the Jays would have to be overwhelmed by an offer to trade him.
- JCMike,
At this All Star break it is sadly remarkable to witness the plight of the Jays and mention of trading away Hallady.If it was not for the number of starting pitcher
injuries besetting the Jays and the rest of the team’s play we would not be talking about dealing #32.The Jays look like a boat set adrift with no direction…overachievers for the first 1/6 of the season and underachievers since.What is Beeston doing with this team?
MW: 41 games is actually 1/4 of the season. I don’t know how they seem like a boat set adrift with no direction.
- MarkHey Mike, I was wondering what you thought about Lou Pinella’s managerial move on sunday’s Cubs/Cards game? Just for other readers, the cards had L-R-L-L due up so Pinella brought Sean Marshall, a lefty in to face the first batter. Then he moved him into left field and brought him back to face the next lefty.
I don’t know about you, but that’s really cool managing. I’d like to see it done a little more often around the league.
MW: I love that stuff.
- PramitMike,
I haven’t seen Dopirak in the Fisher Cats’ lineup for 3 games. Have your heard anything about an injury or something?
I was hoping to see him at least AAA during the 2nd half, but an injury would set him back, I’m sure.
MW: He’s up in AAA.
- RMHey Mike.
Listening to Roy’s interviews today from SL. He said something like he wants to try to take a chance and win somewhere. How is this not a slap in the face to his team? I think you gotta trade him. Would you take his comments well if you were his teammate?
MW: That’s not what he said. He said he wants to win, and he wants to win in Toronto, but he understands that might not be happening. How is it a slap in the face to his teammates? They’re all living in the real world, just as he is.
- andrewMike,
Although unlikely, is it not possible that a road starting pitcher could throw a grand total of 0 pitches before being pulled?
Since the AL get to bat first, if they end up crushing Lincecum, Halladay could get pinch hit for, or would he actually come to the plate to take a few hacks?
Thanks
MW: He wouldn’t get pinch-hit for. Turns out he even took his at-bat in the second inning.
- James from MississaugaIf they trade Halladay, for any reason, I’ll be pleased to call his new team my favourite team. To me, it would be like the Detroit Red Wings telling Steve Yzerman to go play for the Rangers or Colorado getting rid of Joe Sakic. Unthinkable. Don’t do it, JP.
MW: Fans can be blinded by sentiment, general managers can’t.
- Winston TuttleIf jays deal roy, will it mean a complete re-build? and how do they rebuild with someone as halladay missing i mean hes a cornerstone thats hard to comeby?
MW: Almost impossible to come by, but if the Jays re-build, then Halladay will be gone after his contract expires anyway.
- bobHow do you think the Jays will be A.D.? (After Doc)
I have to admit, at first I balked at the idea, but after pondering it for quite some time, I believe the Jays have a better chance of making the playoffs in subsequent years without Halladay than with him.
If JP gets the right pieces in return, it could be a trade that sends the Jays to the promised land.
MW: It could be, but you never know what those pieces will wind up being.
- Camhey mike,
just one more thing that came to my mind with all star weekend upon us. having it been since 1991 the weekend was recorded at the lovely skydome at the time do ever see this star studed series of events hosted by our boys in blue ever again, or even possibly in the near future. personally i think it would really show the league that the jays have more then enough fans to pull it off and toronto is an amazing city from what ive heard. if it ever happens again ill be sure to purchase oen of the first seats.
thanks mike
MW: I think it’s going to be a while before the all-star game comes back to Toronto.
- joe from new jerseyThis is from Shii Davidi:
“The most counter-productive place for a franchise to be is stuck between contending and rebuilding with a mid-range payroll, spending plenty without being good enough to threaten for the post-season, or bad enough to secure the top picks in the draft.”
We’ve been in that place for the last 16 years. It’s a place we have to get out of as fast as possible. I agree with everything Davidi says except that I would definitely not deal Downs who is reliable and not overly expensive.
We need more than one position player, and the team isn’t good enough in my opinion to be only a piece and a half away. Better to build a corps of good kids who will play together in the minors and arrive at the majors as a cohesive group who know each other’s way of play. At that point, and not before, we’ll have a play-off-worthy team. We’ll be in for a rocky couple of years, but hell, we’ve had a rocky couple of decades!
MW: I don’t know about bringing up a group of kids through every stop of the minors together - different players progress at different rates. But John Tolisano, Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens are kind of doing that right now with Dunedin. You know I agree with Shi, which is why I have said that one of the big boat-misses by the Jays the past few years is the fact that they’ve never been big trade deadline sellers.
- reyesMW,
Here’s a thought for you to comment on. I listened to Halladay at the All-Star Game and conclude he is leaving either before the trade deadline or in the off-season. Do you think the Blue Jays might want to offer Wells and Halladay in a package deal. I know no one wants Wells contract but I recall Boston paid a small fortune to Japanese baseball just to negotiate with Matsusake. If we got a starting rotation pitcher ( 3rd,4th or 5th ) and a youngish power left-handed hitter and a good draft pick at the short-stop position in return it wouldn’t be such a bad deal given that we are going to lose Roy anyway.\
MW: They’ll never get a package like that if they include Wells.
- GeorgeMike, could you ask Roy Halladay “if you get traded, what are the chances that you would return to Toronto as a free agent after sowing your wild oats, as it were, with a ‘winner’?” This assumes that the pieces that the Jays get back in any potential Halladay trade, along with developing rookies and other free agent signings, make the Jays a stronger contender with Roy anchoring the pitching staff.
We’ve all heard of sign-and-trade; this would be trade-and-sign. It’s the next best thing to soccer’s loaning players to other teams while they remain under contract.
Thanks!
Zack in Scarborough
MW: Halladay’s not talking about trade rumours anymore, but I would think that if he did leave, he might be interested in coming back for a last hurrah - but it wouldn’t likely happen until the end of his career.
- Zack in ScarboroughOutside of the 0-9 road trip and the 3-12 close to the first half, the middle of the 17-32 slide is a respectable 14-11, .560 baseball. That’s good enough to win many other divisions, and was achieved without the benefit of any significant winning streaks. If the Jays had been able to maintain that pace after the hot 27-14 start they would have finished with 94-95 wins, right on the cusp of what it takes to win a wild card spot. Now, I wonder if they will be able to finish the year over .500, with or without Roy Halladay.
Zack in Scarborough
- Zack in ScarboroughMichael,
Do you think we’ll ever see Pat Gillick be a GM again?
Do you think he’d return to Toronto? I’d imagine if he wanted the job he’d have it already.
Thanks.
MW: I think Gillick is done GMing, but I’ll try to ask him. He’s here this weekend.
- Uncle Benif roy is gone, will the jays contend if they stay as they are? since this is a gap year…what are the chances of him staying/going?
MW: Will they contend when? He says it’s a 50/50 chance.
- bobHey Mike, in terms of the balanced schedule/realignment, I think there’s one scenario I saw that might make sense and has more chance Selig might agree to than the no divisions scenario.
Realign the American League back into two divisions with 7 teams each. Top team from each division makes the playoffs, plus two wildcard spots for the top two teams in the AL not winning the division. With this three teams from one division could make the playoffs if one division has 3 of the top 4 AL clubs.
And the National League, realign that into 4 divisions of 4 teams each, with the top team in each division making the playoffs.
And balanced schedule in each league.
MW: They wouldn’t have four divisions in one league and two in the other.
- CynicalGuySup Mike….
Between The Halladay announcement last week (convieniently right before the break), the futures game and Roy getting the start for the AL side (front and centre stage). Do you really think he’ll still be a Jay by August?
MW: I think it’s likelier than not.
- RealityCheckMike,
What is the theme music to the Baseball Today show? I remember on one episode you said it was good to have it back. Did the same program used to exist and has since been resurrected? Whatever the case may be, it’s pretty catchy, and i feel like i’ve heard it before.
MW: The theme music is reminiscent of the old Blue Jays radio theme, but it’s not exactly the same.
- mattHeard your show this morning about the unbalanced schedule and the inequity to the three teams in the AL east. I remember Godfrey speaking a little bit about it, but why are not the Jays, Rays, Orioles, campaigning more to change this?
And what is the benefit to having an unbalanced schedule?
MW: I don’t know that they’re not campaigning for it, and the benefit is those big divisional rivalries that everyone seems to love so much.
- sandyI really don’t want to see Roy Halladay get traded, but the press seems hell-bent on making it happen. If the Jays had to, they should trade him for the conference position with any team in the Central division. No other players, just to get them out of the East. Let’s have a lot of fun and go for the National League central ! Selig managed to switch somehow, years ago, maybe something to think about.
- randallcousinsWhen Evan Longoria pulled out of the All-Star Game they should have replaced him with Scott Rolen. Why isn’t he getting the respect he deserves? It’s not like he’s an unknown player — he’s been an all-star for the National League before. Ozzie Smith made it to the ASG based solely on his spectacular defense. Rolen has that defensive talent and is 3rd in the AL in batting. What gives?
MW: Longoria didn’t get pulled out until the last minute. Otherwise, they might have.
- Zack in ScarboroughHi Mike,
Hope you’ve had some time to relax and recharge.
I was reading this entry and thinking, “John Gibbons, John Gibbons, John Gibbons”. It was the whole batting average with RISP that seemed to have prompted his firing, and here we are discussing the hitting again.
Mike, who precipitated the discussion about moving Roy Halladay? Was it really just a comment by JP that no player is untouchable (or words to that effect? Of course, no player is theoreticaly untouchable, but it seemed safe to assume for me that JP was just stating the obvious - no player on no team is untouchable. I never dreamt that it would actually lead to the point it has.
I can’t think of a pitcher that has been brought up in the Jays’ system and reached all-star proportions and then been moved out of town. Dave Stieb, Jim Clancy, Tom Henke all spent their prime years as Jays. We actually were the ones to pick up the David Cones and Jack Morrisses. I really hope that it isn’t a case of now being a team that can’t hold onto it’s prime players.
MW: Halladay is 32, so he has indeed spent his prime years in Toronto. Really, what started all this was Ricciardi saying that they’d be foolish not to listen if anyone came calling on any player, including Halladay, and Ken Rosenthal publishing a story about those comments that was headlined “Halladay As Good As Gone”.
- Ed in TorontoSATELITE RADIO IS REPORTING Halladay and Overbay to the Angels for Brandon Wood, Robb Quinlan, Macier Izturis, Trevor Reckling and Hank Conger.
MW: As a done deal? I hope not.
- Domenickmichael,
please refresh my memory if you could cause’ it was a few yrs. ago now…..
when v. wells was issued is current contract, who were the cf comparables used at the time to establish the basis of the remuneration?
i recall t. hunter i believe. perhaps a. jones maybe? was there anyone else on the radar screen at the time that it was based on?
and i also seem to remember that the then president of the team (p. godfrey) had a major hand in wanting to get that deal done for the sake of the franchise. or at least that theory was being bandied about to some degree at the time. did you ever hear that type of talk at the time or shortly thereafter michael?
MW: Alfonso Soriano was the main comparable, and Torii Hunter signed a similar deal (though not as long, because he’s older). Yes, there was plenty of talk - some of it from me - that Paul Godfrey was behind the contract.
- darrell bishopDoc certainly didn’t help his trade value with that All-Star performance. Yeesh. He finally gets a chance to pitch on a big stage and gets lit up.
MW: Funny.
- JasonHi Mike,
The concept of trading Roy Halladay is really quite depressing. Yes, it may actually be in the long term benefit of the team to do it, but it just doesn’t feel right. It’s almost an admission of failure for the Ricciardi regime for not providing a truly competitive team by 2008 and beyond.
We can psyche ourselves up that 2010 is going to be a good year and our prospects are going to take us to the next level after that, but it seems to me that Roy doesn’t feel that way. I trust his opinion of the Jay’s future more than I do a passionate fan. If he doesn’t see Toronto as being an October team in the near future, that ain’t good.
If he does get traded, and I hope he doesn’t, what JP gets in return will really dictate his competency in this regard. It might take years to find out, but his reputation is really on the line with this one. You also have to wonder what effect Halladays loss will have on the mental psyche of a fan base that’s hard pressed to go to games as it is.
I’m in Toronto for 6 weeks starting Monday and I hope to see Hallady pitch in the blue and white at least one more time.
MW: I’m confident you will, on Friday. You’re right, though, if the Jays trade Halladay then that single trade will be the entirety of J.P. Ricciardi’s legacy.
- OzRobCaught your show today.
It’s a shame that so many people are innumerate, but they are. The **difference** between the #1 Yankees payroll and the #2 Red Sox payroll is more than many other franchises’ payrolls. And that’s just the gap between #1 and #2 — the discrepancy from #2 to #8 (8 because 8 teams make the playoffs) is even more startling. That is vastly different than the situation when the Jays ‘bought’ their World Series Championships. And 80% of the 62% new playoff teams last year came from the other 5 divisions.
All anyone needs to do to understand the difference is to look at the past dozen years of history division by division. No division has had *less* variety in the teams it sends to the playoffs year to year. It’s not even close.
Bud Selig is a joke. Who better than a car salesman to be a shill for the owners? From his general handling of MLB to his handling of the ‘02 All-Star Game, ironically located in Milwaukee, the city that hosts the team that he ~doesn’t~ really own — yeah, right — which would violate the rules for commissioner eligibility. It seems that the owners all get a say in how baseball is run proportional to the amount of money they can claim to be responsible for in the lucrative television contract. In other words, the Yankees’ and Red Sox’ interests trump the other 28 teams’ interests combined. In still other words, there is *no one* who is looking out for the best interests of the Game of Baseball.
Also, how did you not know Atomic by Blondie? Did you at least recognize it as Blondie? Atomic is on their classic “Best of Blondie” album. (”Album” is a hint at how extremely old I am. It’s a word that has no meaning to the .mp3 generation.)
Zack in Scarborough
MW: I kind of recognized it as Blondie, but only a little bit. Didn’t know that song at all. Any collection of songs is still an album, though, whether it’s on vinyl, cassette, CD, 8-track or iPod.
- Zack in ScarboroughListening to Baseball Today noon hour show yesterday on the subject of why the Jays are not considered “contenders” at the start of any season!
I am not so sure it has everything to do with playing in the AL East and an unbalanced schedule to boot. The Jays afterall have won pennants and a couple of WS titles since their existence. A lot more than some other teams have done for sure.
I agree it is unfair as to the unbalanced schedule however, playing in a tougher division should only make you better. Comparing player for player and talent for talent their is not a whole lot of difference between the Jays, Yankees and Red Sox. That is to say if some of the Jays talent was living up to its past performances and living up to their potential things would have been much better than presently are and over the last 2 seasons for sure.
I don’t think you can put your finger on any one issue but rather a combination of a few. One of the biggest downfalls for the Jays organization as I see it over the last couple of seasons has been fan attendance. That alone has put them in a precarious situation, one that looks to be the root cause as to the projected salary dumping that seems to loom rather large at this time. An obvious reason also as to the dollars and cents that are missing when it comes to bringing in high priced players.
The Jays deserve a stronger fan base. Looking back over the last few years as to pro sports in Toronto. Who other than the Jays have produced winning seasons - none! It’s a shame for sure when people don’t realize what they have until it is gone. By that I mean players like Doc and whoever is next.
Whether Doc stays or goes, he will undoubtly make the Jays a stronger team. One that can win despite the division or the unbalanced schedule. The missing part is still the fan base and their attendance at games.
Hope you enjoyed your couple of days away their Mike. Looking forward to a 2nd half huge improvement for the jays. Which I believe will happen (after the Red Sox series)!
Thank you!
MW: See the comment above.
- Bob from BurlingtonOverbay’s lack of pop seems to have begun with his hand injury in 2007. He admitted last year that it was bothering him. Although his on-base percentage is great, there are no mashers mashing on this team, except Adam Lind. Overbay would be an asset on a team with homerun hitters, but on this one he’s just another guy, left on base.
Am I the only one who thinks his swing is weird. When he strides, he comes to a complete stop, then starts his swing with ONLY his upper body. To drive the ball as much as he does he must be incredibly strong, because he’s only using his upper body to generate power. I can’t believe no one has brought this to his attention.
MW: I haven’t noticed that - I can’t believe he comes to a complete stop. I’ll look more closely.
- Richard Hennesseyin 10 Qs with Roy Halladay, when he said that ‘everyone except for tiger woods is chasing someone’, when talking about being better than everyone, why didn’t you ask him who he thought he was chasing?
i know that would’ve made it 11 questions, but you could’ve just said that it was part B of that question…either way, it was just a logical follow-up question, and i couldn’t believe that i didn’t get to hear who Roy Halladay thought was the best pitcher in baseball…
MW: I got the feeling when he said that that the answer was fluid. That’s it’s not one specific guy that he’s chasing.
- Jay BMike:
I have yet to find where it mentions Toronto signing their top 8 draft picks of this year. As far as I know, there’s only 30-ish days remaining to do so. We can use any good news right now.
MW: Don’t worry. They signed the 4th-rounder today.
- Richard SpackmanWhat’s the deal with no Canadian national Anthem at the All Star Game?? Brutal
MW: They played “O Canada” - but it was on tape, as opposed to a live performance, and FOX chose not to show it - they rarely do.
- Jason DeneaultMike, you are voice of reason in this town. The “JP’s a moron” crowd are a mystery to me. He’s put together a pretty good team with a solid future, and people still bring up Frank Thomas and BJ…sure, not the best moves, but what about Lind, Romero, Hill and so on? JP is much better than he is given credit for. Love the show!
MW: Thanks!
- KVhow come the yankees dont lose when they get nothing from wang, the sox dont lose when they get nothing from dicek and ortiz, the rays dont lose when they get nothing from burrell? or is that good teams dont need to make excuses?
MW: For the Yankees and Red Sox, it’s because they can easily outspend their mistakes. I would have that that would be obvious. For the Rays, it’s because Ben Zobrist has become Superman.
- marlonMW: I’m stunned, by the way, that I haven’t heard from any of the “Cito and his coaches have fixed the hitters” folks, who were so vocal over the first six weeks of the season.
****
Your arrogance is truly unmatched. In a column that had nothing to do with Cito, you take a shot at all the fans who felt he was mostly responsible for their hot hitting in April/May. Then, when they can’t hit water if they fell out of a boat, you do your not-so-subtle ‘I told you so’ like only the pompus Mike Wilner can.
Yup. Rational, reasonable comments encouraged, but ONLY if they agree with you.
MW: Not at all. And how is it arrogant to point out the fact that the “Cito is a miracle worker” crowd - people who were ADAMANT late last season and early this season that he was the only reason the Blue Jays’ offense was performing well - has disappeared?
- Corymike, I want to ask you a very specific question. I’m not saying you said this, but it has been said that the jays cant win in the AL east because of the yankees and sox. so let me ask you this:
Q: Do you believe that since 2001, the jays would have made the playoffs if they were playing in the central or west division?
If the answer is no, then I would conclude that the jays were never that good and playing in the east is irrelevant.
If the answer is yes, can you give me an idea of which year you think they would have won? Because I contend that no matter what division you are in, you still have to win 90-95 games to make the playoffs and I dont think the jays have shown they’ve ever been capable of that.
MW: My answer is yes, and more than once. You do realize that the Cardinals won the World Series a few years back with 83 regular-season wins, right? Last year, there were division winners with 89 and 84 wins, in 2007 there were winners with 89 and 85, in 2006 88 and the aforementioned 83, in 2005 the Padres won the NL West at 82-80.
- marloncito is 2-12 last 14 games. the team seems like it has no confidence. if the team continues to win 20% of its games at what point do you have to fire cito?
IMO, I would never have hired cito. I dont believe that you should ever rehire somebody that you fired. I think cito has shown that he is not a good in game manager. His success has been motivation and this team just doesn’t look very confident or motivated. I think not moving the lineup and not benching players early on sent a message that it doesn’t matter whether you hit or not, you’ll always be in the lineup and that’s not good for a young team. and remember he didnt want to give days off early on, and now they look tired.
MW: Cito isn’t 2-12 in his last 14 games (and neither are the Blue Jays, by the way) - the manager can only put his players in the best position to do their best, it’s up to the players after that. Whether Cito consistently puts his players in the best positions to perform at their best is debatable. The Jays went into the break, by the way, with four wins in their last 14 games, not that that’s much better than 2-12.
- marlonmike, you keep saying that trading vw for nothing is not a good idea, but what if you did and then used that 20 mil and offerred it to jason bay? who would you rather pay 20 mil for going forward, vw or bay? this is why you dump that contract so you can redeploy that money in a more productive way.
MW: So then you trade Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells for a B- prospect and Jason Bay. IF he signs.
- marlonlet’s see, the jays cant hit and could easily have gotten eric hinske but instead they said no thanks we are going to cheap out and go with delucci. and whats the result. delucci has no hits. hinske has 3 hr in only 12 ab’s. thanks for nothing JP.
mike, if you recall isn’t the reason gord ash was fired was because some big contracts blew up in his face and then the attendance started to plummett. well isn’t that’s what’s happening now?
MW: I don’t think that’s why Ash was fired, he was fired for his errors in evaluating his talent. Hinske’s homers have come at Yankee Stadium, so they don’t count.
- marlonHey Mike,
I believe that we could do much better in regards to production from first base. How about moving Adam Lind there? This would allow Overbay to be possibly moved for a minor leaguer and save the Jays a bit of money which it appears they will need in the next few years.
MW: Who do you put in left field? And I don’t think the Jays are suffering too much with Overbay.
- JonJ.P should not be allowed to trade Roy unless he gets an extension because this is as big a trade a G.M can make so if he won’t be here for next year or beyond that then the next G.M should be able to use this amazing asset we have to put his stamp on the team and rebuild in a different way, would you agree? Also in soccer there is trades but also transfers where you can buy a player from another team and with that the big teams will always stay big and have the good players with them, i think that would be good for baseball since the Marlins, Jays,Rays etc. would make good money when they wouldn’t be able to afford their young players and with money invest it to other players and so on since there isn’t a salary cap…?? sorry to make a soccer connection ..
MW: Don’t apologize, at least it wasn’t hockey. I have a bit of a problem with a team straight out buying a player from another team, but cash is an asset, so maybe I’m wrong. Ricciardi shouldn’t have to be signed to an extension to trade Halladay. He’s still under contract for another year and a half.
- Jaime RamonHey Mike,
Just droping in to get a few thing’s off my chest.
Hope you enjoyed the allstar break.
Frist, The Jays should try to keep Halladay because I bleave there not far off from being a contender. With all the rookies showing promise and Marcum on his way back from the DL, getting rid of Doc would leave a big hole that can’t be filled easily. You can’t replace a guy like Halladay. Good things happen to good people, who knows, he just might get his chance at a World Series playing in a Blue Jays Unform! SO KEEP HIM, PLAYERS LIKE DOC DON’T COME ALONG THAT OFFTEN.
When it comes to the line up,with Hill and Lind coming into they’re own, Sinder not to far behind them, the jays need to add a powerfull bat that could put up simlar numbers to what Troy Glaus posted in his first season with the jays (38HRS, 104RBI,.252Av, .355OBP…not saying bring back Gluas) and they are a team to be wrecking with. They have a position that can be upgraded on asswell witch could bring in that kind of production and that is first base. I think its time to part ways with Overbay. His best years are behind him, if you can’t trade him put him on the bench, it makes a weak bench better atleast. Having said all that, you got to sign Marco Scutaro to a contract for next season. He’s a important part of the lineup with him leading off and OBP. I hope Paul or J.P reads this. Please dont brake up this team. It will pay of in the long run!!
MW: Scutaro and Hill have fallen off badly in the last month and a half. I think that a big, big banger would very obviously help the Jays, and first base/DH is a position that should be able to be easily filled. I love Lyle Overbay, but if they can get a bat like Glaus was back then, they ought to do it.
- HardeepHey Mike,
Any news on the Jay’s attempts to sign their top three draft picks ? Most teams have made some traction with their (good of otherwise), but nothing seems to be heard of for the Jays.
Also, whatcha think about Halladay’s performance at the All Star game ? I didn’t see any crisp breaking balls thrown, mostly just his two-seamer and his cutter.
MW: Nothing yet for the Jays, and I thought Halladay did awfully well - for the first five outs. After that, not so much.
- DaveMike,
I feel a little bit like as a Jays’ fan I’ve been sold a bill of goods. All off season we were told that 2009 was a transition year, as the team waits for Marcum and McGowan to return from reconstructive surgery, and that the team was poised to make a run in 2010. So far, the team’s play has lived up to this assessment, and despite the loss of Jesse Litsch, poor play of BJ Ryan and perodic DL trips for Downs and Richmond.
Wells and Rios are an anomaly. Neither should be on the downside of their careers yet both are playing at a level well below their career averages in virtually every offensive statistical category.
Three quick thoughts/questions.
1 - Would it not be a mistake to trade Halladay given that he is one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers in the game; combined with the ultra competitive nature of the AL East. It seems to be able to compete long term with the Yankees and Red Sox you’d need a stud pitcher anchoring your rotation.
2 - Despite the defensive drop of, do you think the Jays would put any thought into converting Adam Lind to a First Baseman and using Overbay to solidify another weakness?
3 - Is there any hope that the Jays would use some of the “saved money” from this year to take a run at a bonafide hitting free agent like Jason Bay or to a lesser extent Carl Crawford? Both aree in the prime of their career and would certainly help solidify the offensive production of the team.
Sorry if my thoughts seemed random.
A Frustrated Jays Fan,
Andrij
MW: 1 - Only if they have a chance to sign Halladay long-term, which they might not. 2 - I don’t think Overbay would bring back a serious return in trade. 3 - That would sure be nice, wouldn’t it? Amazingly, Crawford’s career avg/obp/slg are almost identical to Alex Rios’.
- Andrij HarasymowyczMike,
Along with drunkjaysfans I read your blog just as religiously as their’s. Keep up the great work. My question is, of all the trade talks and rumours, is there on rumour/package that you heard (of course this is all speculation)that you believe is just too good to pass up? Thanks.
joe, toronto
MW: I might do Halladay for Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Lars Anderson.
- joe, torontoOptions, options, what to do…
1/ Sign Halliday to an extension pronto.
2/ Trade Roy for a “guaranteed-your-best-prospects” 20 game winner(s) and 100 RBI hitter in 2011.
3/Pick 1 or 2 so we can stop hearing about trade Roy talk.
MW: There’s no such thing as 2.
- GaryMike, I was wondering how many games the great Jerry Howarth has done so far? I bet he’d be very close to 4,000 games. And do you know what’s his longest streak and how many games he has missed since his first game as a commentator in MLB?
MW: I don’t know when the last time Jerry missed a game was. He hasn’t missed any (when you combine radio and TV) since I arrived in 2002. He’s in his 28th full season, I believe, so it’s over 4,000.
- BeburgI heard Paul Beeston on Prime Time Thursday night and he made the statement that the Jays are willing to spend as much money as the Red Sox. So my qeustion is, if that’s true then why the heck aren’t they doing it? If they want to keep Doc happy, bump the payroll up to 150 million or so and actually sign some free agents this winter.
MW: It’s not an unfair question.
- NickThis is completely off topic but a couple of weeks/months ago a writer commented about taking a pitcher out of the game and playing him in a position so that he could come in the next inning again. The cubs did that this week and I thought that it was a pretty cool move by Pinella to keep his only left from the pen in the game. He put him in left field and brought in a righty to face a right handed hitter. Things like this make me like the game even more.
- KDso let’s see, bj ryan signs with the cubs but has to report to the minors! gee wasn’t it a given that he wouldn’t go to the jays minors? so why is he doing it now? I have a sneaking suspicsion that ryan intentionally sabotaged the jays. when he struggled and was removed as the closer I think he purposely pitched like crap so he could get released. If ryan really wanted to help the jays he could have gone on a rehab assignment so he’s doing the exact same thing with the cubs. so we’ll see if he suddenly starts throwing 90 again.
MW: I don’t think there was any intentional sabotage. I don’t think Ryan is the type of guy to embarrass himself in public if he can help it. As for why he didn’t go to the minors before the Jays released him, he had 15 million reasons not to.
- marlonMike, I note that Brian Dopirak has been promoted to Las Vegas (3 for 4 last night with a double).
I’m not sure what other roster move the 51’s made, but I don’t seem to find Brett (Brian?) Harper on their roster anymore. I thought he was having a reasonable year — do you know if he has been released or traded?
Here is a link to an article on Dopirak: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/218783-heres-a-thought-the-brian-dopirak-story
MW: I’ll check on Harper.
- NormHey Mike,
As much as I would hate to see Halladay traded, I do feel it might be the right move for the organization going forward. Their strength, I believe, is pitching depth. Moving one of their young arms, however, isn’t likely to bring enough in the way of position players to actually make this team better. Moving Doc might. If they can get say: Rasmus, Wallace, Perez and some arms from St. Louis for Doc, it might be worth it.
Doc’s 32. And yup, he might have ten years left in that right shoulder. He is a freak of nature. That said, if I was a betting man laying odds on him making it through his next contract (say 6 years at 20m+) without running into a serious arm injury, I’d say they are pretty low. Most pitchers break down at some point, Doc never really has.
Doc is my favorite Blue Jay, and the best Blue Jay since Delgado. But it might be the best move to make.
MW: It might be, though I would hate to see it, too. Perez has already been traded, though. I would look at Rasmus, Todd and Motte for starters.
- peteIf the Jays have their typical 2nd half season surge this season, it could make for some interesting baseball as far as a shot at the wild card goes.
However…..
The Red Sox are about to showcase Buchholz to the Jays organization by giving him a start in Toronto. Doc could very well be climbing on to the mound in Bean Town before long. If that were to happen, you may as well mail in a WS title to the Red Sox.
Time to get back in saddle there Mike. Hope you enjoyed your well deserved time off.
Thanks.
MW: Thanks.
- Bob from BurlingtonDo you think Brian Tallet has reached “the wall” with his starts this season? Should he be back in the bullpen? I know he’s not used to starting this many games and lately he seems to be having lots of trouble. Have the hitters figured him out? What do you think we should do with him? He was great as a reliever and I think he should go back to the pen although I know it’s crowded in there. Maybe that’s a position of strength that the club could deal from and get a legitimate starter in return.
MW: Shouldn’t this have waited until the guy actually had two bad starts in a row? He is back in the bullpen for now, though, because Cito thinks he can help more there and the Jays don’t need a fifth starter until next Saturday.
- Bryan SmallHi Mike,
I realize that you don’t like to comment on other media folks but I have a complaint…and I’m sure Scott Richmond does as well. Why would Mike Toth repeatedly refer to his “half brother”? The guy is taking his time to do an interview and having a SISTER through my father’s second marriage I found his comments insulting not only to Scott, his BROTHER, but his entire family.
I believe an apology is due.
Brad
MW: Did Richmond seem upset?
- Brad TeelingThe Blue Jays haven’t released / sent down Dellucci yet. I am getting worried.
MW: I thought they would have by now, too. Instead maybe he’ll wind up on the DL.
- ChrisHey Mike, I just saw that the Cubs signed BJ Ryan to a minor league deal. Should be interesting to see how he does.
And I guess I’ll get into the Halladay rumours as well…I just saw on Foxsports that they are predicting that Jose Reyes will get traded to shake up the team and to get another pitcher behind Santana. How would you feel about a Halladay for Reyes trade, with the Mets throwing in a prospect or 2?
MW: It depends who the prospects are, but Reyes is a free agent after 2011.
- LoganMike, what is the distance from the pitchers mound to first base? And the home plate to first base?
Is it the same?
MW: From home plate to first base it’s 90 feet. From the pitchers’ mound to first base it’s 63.7 feet.
- J FanSeriously, if the Yankees came to JP and asked if they would trade Wells for a bucket of baseballs, would you do that trade considering we move Wells’ contract?
MW: Maybe. That would free up over $100 million over the next five years.
- andrewHey Mike. Can the Looch experiment please end tonight. When you are 35 and don’t know the rules of baseball, time to go home. Very embarassing, full swing, hits him on the foot, waits for a ruling. Yep, fantastic. You answered one blogger by saying the Jays have been the 5th to 8th best team in the majors the past 3 years. Are you basing that on the fact that in interleague play they are roadkill, or that they have been no better than 7th record wise just in the American League the past 3 years. Remember, this year is the first year in at least 4 that the Yankees actually have a good team for the payroll they spend, with a lot of the bad contracts off the books. In their last 3 playoff appearances, they have been smoked by any team they play from the American League. I am stating this to ward off your obvious argument that they are in a tough division. This is the first year in a while that they are in the absolute toughest division, and their record shows it.
MW: That’s not true at all. And you owe Looch an apology. He doesn’t turn and go back to the dugout until the umpire calls him out, which is the right thing to do.
- davehi
just crossed this info on the internet.
MW: The article was about Vernon Wells being baseball’s worst-fielding CF - but it was a little too blue for me to link to.
- A.J.how come the yankees dont lose when they get nothing from wang, the sox dont lose when they get nothing from dicek and ortiz, the rays dont lose when they get nothing from burrell? or is that good teams dont need to make excuses?
MW: For the Yankees and Red Sox, it’s because they can easily outspend their mistakes. I would have that that would be obvious. For the Rays, it’s because Ben Zobrist has become Superman.
When ortiz struggled and dicek was injured the sox did not spend anything to replace them and yet kept winning so what is the “obvious” you are referring to?
MW: The obvious is that their ability to spend more (both in the draft and in free agency, as well as in trades) means they can afford to be deeper.
- marlonMW: My answer is yes, and more than once. You do realize that the Cardinals won the World Series a few years back with 83 regular-season wins, right? Last year, there were division winners with 89 and 84 wins, in 2007 there were winners with 89 and 85, in 2006 88 and the aforementioned 83, in 2005 the Padres won the NL West at 82-80.
Mike, I was referring to the AL central and west not the NL. I thought that was obvious. No AL team has made the playoffs with less than 90 wins since 2001. Blaming the yankees and sox for the jays failures is simply a convenient excuse.
MW: Only if you don’t want to see the big picture.
- marlonMW: For the Yankees and Red Sox, it’s because they can easily outspend their mistakes. I would have that that would be obvious. For the Rays, it’s because Ben Zobrist has become Superman.
Isn’t the jays supermen Hill and Lind? yet they still cant win.
MW: Hill and Lind are two people, so it should be “aren’t” and no, only Lind qualifies. But you were asking why the Rays can win while Burrell struggles, and my answer was that Zobrist - out of nowhere - has come on to do the job Burrell was expected to, only better.
- marlonPhillies offer: Taylor/Brown, Drabek, Marson, Donald and Knapp/Carracso.
Jays offer: Halladay.
Do you bite.
MW: Maybe, but I don’t like what Donald is doing in AAA this year.
- Renegade“According to fangraphs.com, he’s at -31.9 runs/150 games on defense. That’s 3 games lost purely on defense! It’s a not a 1-year fluke, either. Last year he was at -24.0 runs/150 games.”
MW: We’ve talked about Wells’ having lost a step or three a few times in this space, but to say he sucks on defense is going too far. You knew that, though.
His defense for the last year and a half has sucked. You really can’t sugar coat it. These fangraphs stats are very accurate, and are supported by STATS’s runs saved/lost, Baseball Prospectus’s Davenport translations. I suspect the decline is related to his injuries, but it is very real.
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MW: There’s not a chance the Jays get a #2 starter and a top prospect if Wells is included in the deal.
But you keep telling us that Vernon has trade value. So Vernon + Doc has to net more than just Doc. N’est pa.
MW: There’s definitely been a decline, but to say Wells sucks is going too far. And I don’t keep telling you that Wells has trade value, I keep telling you that he’s not untradeable.
- kitMW: Hill and Lind are two people, so it should be “aren’t” and no, only Lind qualifies.
If Lind is the only superman then he is just one person so it should be “isn’t”.
MW: You’re too much. You wrote “Isn’t the jays supermen Hill and Lind?”. Don’t change your argument because you’re shown to be wrong.
- marlon“I heard Paul Beeston on Prime Time Thursday night and he made the statement that the Jays are willing to spend as much money as the Red Sox. So my qeustion is, if that’s true then why the heck aren’t they doing it? If they want to keep Doc happy, bump the payroll up to 150 million or so and actually sign some free agents this winter.”
MW: It’s not an unfair question.
You may not have noticed but a lot things that Paul Beeston says are gonna happen, don’t actually happen. Beeston and the Jays are in a “saving face” or damage control mode now. Why not say they’re gonna spend like the Red Sox. It’s only words. They don’t cost anything.
I suspect that Doc has told the Jays that he isn’t re-signing with them or the Jays simply don’t want to spend what it will take to re-sign him. Maybe both are true.
- kitMike, re Post #23 (”practising” injuries in LV).
The 51’s Disabled List also includes pitchers Brian Bullington, Wade Miller and Brad Mills (but not, at the moment, Travis Snider)!
Re Post #79 (Paul Beeston’s comments) — I have just “re-listened” to this interview, and he did NOT say the Jays could/would “spend as much as Boston”. What he said was that “money would not be an issue in respect to signing Roy Halladay”. Bruce Arthur mentioned “spending with Boston” in passing, but Beeston did not rise to that bait at all. The interview is in the Audio on Demand section of the Fan590 website, if you want to hear it again.
Finally, in respect to the argument as to whether or not the Jays make the playoffs if they had been in another division, the issue is not to compare the number of wins they HAD with the number that won the division(s), but rather “how many more” wins might they have had if playing the (current) unbalanced schedule against the weaker divisions. I agree with Mike that they would have made the playoffs “more than once” playing in either the AL West or AL Central.
- NormMW: That’s not true at all. And you owe Looch an apology. He doesn’t turn and go back to the dugout until the umpire calls him out, which is the right thing to do.
Isn’t the right thing to do is run to first base when the ball eludes the catcher and then see what the ruling is?
He had a good chance of making it to first and you never know what kind of throw the catcher may make to first.
MW: Not when the ball hits you on the foot and you can’t run.
- JimPost 97:
“According to fangraphs.com, he’s at -31.9 runs/150 games on defense. That’s 3 games lost purely on defense! It’s a not a 1-year fluke, either. Last year he was at -24.0 runs/150 games.”
MW: We’ve talked about Wells’ having lost a step or three a few times in this space, but to say he sucks on defense is going too far. You knew that, though.
His defense for the last year and a half has sucked. You really can’t sugar coat it. These fangraphs stats are very accurate, and are supported by STATS’s runs saved/lost, Baseball Prospectus’s Davenport translations. I suspect the decline is related to his injuries, but it is very real.
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MW: There’s definitely been a decline, but to say Wells sucks is going too far.
———-
Mike:
Vernon’s UZR/150 is -31.9, which translates to just over 3 losses, and his defensive numbers have been on a slide since 2006. The only other CFs with UZR/150 below -20 have not played more than 35 games in CF. Well’s numbers suggest he and Rios should switch in the field.
MW: Yes, they certainly do.
- Alan the stat geek