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	<title>Comments on: Swept!</title>
	<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/</link>
	<description></description>
	<pubDate>Sat, 20 Mar 2010 16:21:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Alan the stat geek</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36711</link>
		<dc:creator>Alan the stat geek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 15:58:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36711</guid>
		<description>Uncle Ben wrote, and your replied:

Michael,

When was the last time a team used the four man rotation and what is the reason you don’t think we see it anymore?

MW: The last time a team used a four-man rotation for a whole season was back in the early to mid 1980s, and we don’t see it anymore because of what happened to Billy Martin’s A’s in 1982 or so.

----------

In Chapter 2.3 of Baseball Between the Numbers, Keith Woolner discusses KC's attempted four-man rotation in 1995.  Tom Gordon and Kevin Appier were allowed too many 100+ pitch games and Appier's ERA was 5.79 from July 1 to the end of the season and Gordon's was 5.03 through August &#38; September.  

Woolner argues that a four-man rotation should be worth about 1.5-2 extra wins, but that pitch counts need to be monitored.  In the chapter, he demonstrates that pitchers throwing on 3 days rest do as well, if not slightly better on three days rest compared to four.

MW:  Cool.  I'd love to see someone brave enough to try a four-man rotation again.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Uncle Ben wrote, and your replied:</p>
<p>Michael,</p>
<p>When was the last time a team used the four man rotation and what is the reason you don’t think we see it anymore?</p>
<p>MW: The last time a team used a four-man rotation for a whole season was back in the early to mid 1980s, and we don’t see it anymore because of what happened to Billy Martin’s A’s in 1982 or so.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<p>In Chapter 2.3 of Baseball Between the Numbers, Keith Woolner discusses KC&#8217;s attempted four-man rotation in 1995.  Tom Gordon and Kevin Appier were allowed too many 100+ pitch games and Appier&#8217;s ERA was 5.79 from July 1 to the end of the season and Gordon&#8217;s was 5.03 through August &amp; September.  </p>
<p>Woolner argues that a four-man rotation should be worth about 1.5-2 extra wins, but that pitch counts need to be monitored.  In the chapter, he demonstrates that pitchers throwing on 3 days rest do as well, if not slightly better on three days rest compared to four.</p>
<p>MW:  Cool.  I&#8217;d love to see someone brave enough to try a four-man rotation again.</p>
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		<title>By: Jack</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36672</link>
		<dc:creator>Jack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 16:11:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36672</guid>
		<description>#59 is a little off the topic with his diatribe about Scutaro, then his Elias piece on rankings of catchers. Seems his estimate of "two cents" is grossly inflated.

MW:  He didn't really do an Elias piece on the rankings of catchers, he just linked to Elias' rankings of all players.  You needed to scroll down.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#59 is a little off the topic with his diatribe about Scutaro, then his Elias piece on rankings of catchers. Seems his estimate of &#8220;two cents&#8221; is grossly inflated.</p>
<p>MW:  He didn&#8217;t really do an Elias piece on the rankings of catchers, he just linked to Elias&#8217; rankings of all players.  You needed to scroll down.</p>
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		<title>By: isabella reyes</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36667</link>
		<dc:creator>isabella reyes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 14:27:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36667</guid>
		<description>Si is now reporting that the Jays are rethinking trading Halladay because of the fan backlash.  I cannot tell you how much this gets under my skin.

If you are gonna trade the guy--and he should be traded in my opinion--then trade him.  It's the right thing to do and the fans will thank you when all the goodies you get for him turn up and do well.  If you aren't going to trade him, or you're not sure you're going to trade him, keep your mouth shut to the media while you're working out the process.  As you have said many times, the club shouldn't listen to the fans, it should do what's best for the club.  Now all we have is a distracting mess curdling around the premier member of the team.  If he didn't want to be traded before--and I'll bet he did--he surely wants to be traded now. 

 I'm  wondering if it would be possible to trade just for prospects if the team could get a deal that included Wells and all or most of his salary.  That frees up a lot of money to be used (wisely this time) in the free agent market.

MW:  Halladay has never wanted to be traded.  I'm pretty sure of that.  And if the Jays are prepared to trade him, there's NO way they'll back off because fans are upset.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Si is now reporting that the Jays are rethinking trading Halladay because of the fan backlash.  I cannot tell you how much this gets under my skin.</p>
<p>If you are gonna trade the guy&#8211;and he should be traded in my opinion&#8211;then trade him.  It&#8217;s the right thing to do and the fans will thank you when all the goodies you get for him turn up and do well.  If you aren&#8217;t going to trade him, or you&#8217;re not sure you&#8217;re going to trade him, keep your mouth shut to the media while you&#8217;re working out the process.  As you have said many times, the club shouldn&#8217;t listen to the fans, it should do what&#8217;s best for the club.  Now all we have is a distracting mess curdling around the premier member of the team.  If he didn&#8217;t want to be traded before&#8211;and I&#8217;ll bet he did&#8211;he surely wants to be traded now. </p>
<p> I&#8217;m  wondering if it would be possible to trade just for prospects if the team could get a deal that included Wells and all or most of his salary.  That frees up a lot of money to be used (wisely this time) in the free agent market.</p>
<p>MW:  Halladay has never wanted to be traded.  I&#8217;m pretty sure of that.  And if the Jays are prepared to trade him, there&#8217;s NO way they&#8217;ll back off because fans are upset.</p>
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		<title>By: Beburg</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36659</link>
		<dc:creator>Beburg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 07:56:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36659</guid>
		<description>Finally Alex Rios has some company in the baserunning department! ( don't tell me you were doing a Scutaro at age 39...stealing 2nd on a walk?:)

Finally we have a no-hitter for 2009. How many teams have lost a game after their pitcher threw a no-hitter? I bet in 130+ years of baseball, there must have been a few of those.

MW:  I didn't try to steal second on a walk.  Are you asking how many teams have lost the game that followed their pitcher throwing a no-hitter or how many games has a team lost while having its pitcher throw a no-hitter?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Finally Alex Rios has some company in the baserunning department! ( don&#8217;t tell me you were doing a Scutaro at age 39&#8230;stealing 2nd on a walk?:)</p>
<p>Finally we have a no-hitter for 2009. How many teams have lost a game after their pitcher threw a no-hitter? I bet in 130+ years of baseball, there must have been a few of those.</p>
<p>MW:  I didn&#8217;t try to steal second on a walk.  Are you asking how many teams have lost the game that followed their pitcher throwing a no-hitter or how many games has a team lost while having its pitcher throw a no-hitter?</p>
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		<title>By: rick</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36647</link>
		<dc:creator>rick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 05:04:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36647</guid>
		<description>Hey Mike


MW: The only controversy and turbulence that focus on J.P. comes from the media and the fans who don’t like his personality, the team doesn’t see him that way at all. It’s not really much of an argument to say that the Orioles made the playoffs in 1997 and the Rays made the playoffs in 2008, so it’s not that hard to not be and AL East team other than the Red Sox and Yankees.

Mike, i think JP should be fired as well and i don't give a damn what his personality is like.  My favourite player was Bonds and he was a juiced up jerk.  Of course the difference between Bonds and JP is that Barry backed it up with results, but JP backs up his lack of success with excuse after excuse.  Not once in the past 8 years has he been able to make this team a contender.  Maybe he isn't baseballs worst GM, but at best he is average.  And an average GM won't be able to compensate for the disadvantages that come with being in the AL east.  Its time for a change, the fans deserve a lot more than what they have been subjected to over the last 15 years.

One question....,How come when you refer to some of Tampa's players ( Howell, Balfour ), you call it luck and then when guys like Carlson or Tallet produce you say JP is a genious?

MW:  I don't.  That's how come.  I give him credit for finding Carlson off the scrap heap and for picking up Tallet for absolutely nothing, for sure, because he deserves it.  And so does Andrew Friedman deserve credit for giving guys like Balfour and Howell a shot.  Every team needs a good dose of luck if it's going to win and last year, the Rays got luckier than most.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Mike</p>
<p>MW: The only controversy and turbulence that focus on J.P. comes from the media and the fans who don’t like his personality, the team doesn’t see him that way at all. It’s not really much of an argument to say that the Orioles made the playoffs in 1997 and the Rays made the playoffs in 2008, so it’s not that hard to not be and AL East team other than the Red Sox and Yankees.</p>
<p>Mike, i think JP should be fired as well and i don&#8217;t give a damn what his personality is like.  My favourite player was Bonds and he was a juiced up jerk.  Of course the difference between Bonds and JP is that Barry backed it up with results, but JP backs up his lack of success with excuse after excuse.  Not once in the past 8 years has he been able to make this team a contender.  Maybe he isn&#8217;t baseballs worst GM, but at best he is average.  And an average GM won&#8217;t be able to compensate for the disadvantages that come with being in the AL east.  Its time for a change, the fans deserve a lot more than what they have been subjected to over the last 15 years.</p>
<p>One question&#8230;.,How come when you refer to some of Tampa&#8217;s players ( Howell, Balfour ), you call it luck and then when guys like Carlson or Tallet produce you say JP is a genious?</p>
<p>MW:  I don&#8217;t.  That&#8217;s how come.  I give him credit for finding Carlson off the scrap heap and for picking up Tallet for absolutely nothing, for sure, because he deserves it.  And so does Andrew Friedman deserve credit for giving guys like Balfour and Howell a shot.  Every team needs a good dose of luck if it&#8217;s going to win and last year, the Rays got luckier than most.</p>
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		<title>By: Greg W</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36646</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg W</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:44:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36646</guid>
		<description>First, its a win, and its not RR Cool Jay on the mound. I was momentarily disoriented by that actually happening. Yay!

Second, In regards to McGowan and the high pitch count game, Baseball Prospectus has given a lot of thought to pitcher injuries and pitch counts. The data has shown that not only to tired pitchers have a higher risk of injury, regardless of how OFTEN they work, the risk of injury goes up exponentially as the number of pitches increases in an outing. Not every pitcher gets tired after 90 or 100 pitches, but tracking injuries has way more to do with the number of pitches in an outing, rather than how much rest a pitcher has had between outings, or how many innings a pitcher has thrown in a year. I'm not saying McGowan WAS hurt by the 125 pitch outing, but pitching tired is like playing Russian roulette with a pitcher's arm.

Last, when do we see Snider in a big league uniform again? If I'm gonna watch a guy have an o-fer more nights that not, I'd rather it be the prospect with potential, not the old dude off the waiver wire.

MW:  So would I.  Evidently Snider's been hurting again - a bruised knee in a collision at the plate in Vegas, but I have a feeling he'll be back when the Jays come home from this road trip.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First, its a win, and its not RR Cool Jay on the mound. I was momentarily disoriented by that actually happening. Yay!</p>
<p>Second, In regards to McGowan and the high pitch count game, Baseball Prospectus has given a lot of thought to pitcher injuries and pitch counts. The data has shown that not only to tired pitchers have a higher risk of injury, regardless of how OFTEN they work, the risk of injury goes up exponentially as the number of pitches increases in an outing. Not every pitcher gets tired after 90 or 100 pitches, but tracking injuries has way more to do with the number of pitches in an outing, rather than how much rest a pitcher has had between outings, or how many innings a pitcher has thrown in a year. I&#8217;m not saying McGowan WAS hurt by the 125 pitch outing, but pitching tired is like playing Russian roulette with a pitcher&#8217;s arm.</p>
<p>Last, when do we see Snider in a big league uniform again? If I&#8217;m gonna watch a guy have an o-fer more nights that not, I&#8217;d rather it be the prospect with potential, not the old dude off the waiver wire.</p>
<p>MW:  So would I.  Evidently Snider&#8217;s been hurting again - a bruised knee in a collision at the plate in Vegas, but I have a feeling he&#8217;ll be back when the Jays come home from this road trip.</p>
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		<title>By: Uncle Ben</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36645</link>
		<dc:creator>Uncle Ben</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:14:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36645</guid>
		<description>Michael,

When was the last time a team used the four man rotation and what is the reason you don't think we see it anymore?

MW:  The last time a team used a four-man rotation for a whole season was back in the early to mid 1980s, and we don't see it anymore because of what happened to Billy Martin's A's in 1982 or so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael,</p>
<p>When was the last time a team used the four man rotation and what is the reason you don&#8217;t think we see it anymore?</p>
<p>MW:  The last time a team used a four-man rotation for a whole season was back in the early to mid 1980s, and we don&#8217;t see it anymore because of what happened to Billy Martin&#8217;s A&#8217;s in 1982 or so.</p>
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		<title>By: paolo</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36644</link>
		<dc:creator>paolo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:01:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36644</guid>
		<description>Hey Andrew, 

I play in a league whose website is www.hpsa.ca. Its a good league with slo-pitch, fast pitch, and hardball. And this past weekend i got to play in a celebrity charity tournament with Rod Black, Kerry Joseph, Danny McManus, and a bunch of other sportscasters and cfl players past and present. Anyways this league is my first adult baseball league after i left Ryerson University Hardball. 

I would suggest this league as they play in scarborough at Agincourt(Sheppard and Midland), and bridlewood (warden and sheppard). However they also have a few games in North York as well. 

This league has everything you want, 24 game season, stats trackers, tournamenets, and plenty of teams that will be looking to add players, obviously not this year but next summer. If you are at least an average player, i might be able to help you find a team if your interested.

MW:  Good work, Paolo!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Andrew, </p>
<p>I play in a league whose website is <a href="http://www.hpsa.ca." rel="nofollow">http://www.hpsa.ca.</a> Its a good league with slo-pitch, fast pitch, and hardball. And this past weekend i got to play in a celebrity charity tournament with Rod Black, Kerry Joseph, Danny McManus, and a bunch of other sportscasters and cfl players past and present. Anyways this league is my first adult baseball league after i left Ryerson University Hardball. </p>
<p>I would suggest this league as they play in scarborough at Agincourt(Sheppard and Midland), and bridlewood (warden and sheppard). However they also have a few games in North York as well. </p>
<p>This league has everything you want, 24 game season, stats trackers, tournamenets, and plenty of teams that will be looking to add players, obviously not this year but next summer. If you are at least an average player, i might be able to help you find a team if your interested.</p>
<p>MW:  Good work, Paolo!</p>
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		<title>By: the stat lady</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36643</link>
		<dc:creator>the stat lady</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 03:40:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36643</guid>
		<description>MW: If you get an at-bat and don’t get a hit, you don’t have a hit streak anymore.


Even if you don't get an at-bat you could still lose your hit streak: a BB, SF, HBP, sac hit (what a ridiculous term that is) would do it.

______________________________

"Compare these guys to Boston’s selections over the past ten years and you’ll realize that here is no comparison. Look at where Boston has selected in the draft over the past 8 or nine years in comparison to the Jays. Yet they draft players lik

Kevin Youkolis
Dustin Podrillia
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jed Lowry
Johnathan Papoblbon"

Did Boston not also draft Hanley Ramirez (who turned into Beckett and Lowell), John Lester, Clay Bucholtz (who already has a major league no-hitter and is tearing up AAA).

But people like MW keep telling us it's the payroll that makes Boston a better managed team than the Blue Jays

MW:  A BB, HBP or sac hit would NOT terminate a hit streak, but a sac fly would.  Weird, but what can I tell you?  Boston did NOT draft Hanley Ramirez.  He's Dominican and isn't eligible for the draft.  Wow, you're wrong a lot tonight.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MW: If you get an at-bat and don’t get a hit, you don’t have a hit streak anymore.</p>
<p>Even if you don&#8217;t get an at-bat you could still lose your hit streak: a BB, SF, HBP, sac hit (what a ridiculous term that is) would do it.</p>
<p>______________________________</p>
<p>&#8220;Compare these guys to Boston’s selections over the past ten years and you’ll realize that here is no comparison. Look at where Boston has selected in the draft over the past 8 or nine years in comparison to the Jays. Yet they draft players lik</p>
<p>Kevin Youkolis<br />
Dustin Podrillia<br />
Jacoby Ellsbury<br />
Jed Lowry<br />
Johnathan Papoblbon&#8221;</p>
<p>Did Boston not also draft Hanley Ramirez (who turned into Beckett and Lowell), John Lester, Clay Bucholtz (who already has a major league no-hitter and is tearing up AAA).</p>
<p>But people like MW keep telling us it&#8217;s the payroll that makes Boston a better managed team than the Blue Jays</p>
<p>MW:  A BB, HBP or sac hit would NOT terminate a hit streak, but a sac fly would.  Weird, but what can I tell you?  Boston did NOT draft Hanley Ramirez.  He&#8217;s Dominican and isn&#8217;t eligible for the draft.  Wow, you&#8217;re wrong a lot tonight.</p>
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		<title>By: Ari</title>
		<link>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36641</link>
		<dc:creator>Ari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 02:51:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/07/10/swept-2/#comment-36641</guid>
		<description>The discussion about Scutaro came up on the JT tonight, here's my two cents. 2 years, 8/10 is too much to offer him. Orlando Cabrera only got 1/5m this year, and had a real hard time finding a job. A big part of it was because he was a Type A FA and none of the teams wanted to surrender a pick to get him. Scutaro, as of now, is headed to the same situation, he's a Type A FA.

For a guy who has made approximately 5m over the course of his entire career, I think he would jump at the opportunity today to sign a 2 year, 5-6m extension, and guarantee himself more money than he's ever made. That sort of contract would work for the Jays as well, because as Jose Bautista proves this year, that's not too much to pay for a solid utility bench player, if that's what it comes to. 

However, they really could be better off just letting him walk and taking the 2 picks. Here's the latest Elias rankings from MLB Trade Rumors - http://www.scribd.com/doc/16831006/Rankings-062609.

MW:  If someone is willing to sign him.  Maybe they'll work a sign-and-trade!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The discussion about Scutaro came up on the JT tonight, here&#8217;s my two cents. 2 years, 8/10 is too much to offer him. Orlando Cabrera only got 1/5m this year, and had a real hard time finding a job. A big part of it was because he was a Type A FA and none of the teams wanted to surrender a pick to get him. Scutaro, as of now, is headed to the same situation, he&#8217;s a Type A FA.</p>
<p>For a guy who has made approximately 5m over the course of his entire career, I think he would jump at the opportunity today to sign a 2 year, 5-6m extension, and guarantee himself more money than he&#8217;s ever made. That sort of contract would work for the Jays as well, because as Jose Bautista proves this year, that&#8217;s not too much to pay for a solid utility bench player, if that&#8217;s what it comes to. </p>
<p>However, they really could be better off just letting him walk and taking the 2 picks. Here&#8217;s the latest Elias rankings from MLB Trade Rumors - <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/16831006/Rankings-062609." rel="nofollow">http://www.scribd.com/doc/16831006/Rankings-062609.</a></p>
<p>MW:  If someone is willing to sign him.  Maybe they&#8217;ll work a sign-and-trade!</p>
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