12:00 AM Eastern
Just got back from old-man softball (not slo-pitch!) so I thought I’d drop a little entry in here and give you this afternoon’s edition of The JaysTalk.
Yes, the Jays got swept in Tampa Bay, no, it doesn’t mean they can’t play with the Rays. They lost all three games by one run each (OK, one was by two runs, but it was a walk-off homer, so the Rays only needed the one) and really, when you’re hitting Kevin Millar clean-up, you can’t reasonably expect to win.
Marco Scutaro got his first day off of the season, and Scott Rolen watched this one as well, and in true Cito”a day off is a day off” style, neither of them was asked to pinch-hit for Millar with the bases loaded in the 7th, one out and the Jays down by a run. Millar popped up, Vernon Wells flied out to deep centre, and the Jays never had another baserunner.
Just remember, and I know you don’t want to hear this: Things are never as good as they seem when they’re going well (27-14, leading the league in almost all pitching and hitting categories), and they’re never as bad as they seem when things are going badly (this horrible 1-6 road trip, part of a horrible 2-10 stretch).
Here’s today’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
Tomorrow, the Jays open up a three-game set in Baltimore that takes them to the all-star break. We’re on at 7:00 PM Eastern with Brett Cecil, the Maryland native, taking on fellow rookie Jason Berken. Berken is right-handed, so Kevin Millar won’t be hitting clean-up.
But make sure you tune in even earlier, because Baseball Today is back at Noon Eastern. We’ll have Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus on to talk about some advanced metrics - hopefully that’ll become a regular segment - and I’m also trying to get Spencer Fordin of mlb.com to talk about the Orioles and what might be the best young outfield in baseball, as well as former Jay Dave Collins for a “Where Are They Now”.
Softball update - I went 3-for-4 tonight with three singles, a couple of RBIs and three runs scored and made two egregious baserunning errors that fortunately didn’t wind up costing us anything.
My first hit was a ground ball up the middle with the bases loaded, and not only did I assume two runs would score (we had speed at second), but I also saw the runner who had been on first round second and take three hard steps towards third - which was occupied - so I took off for second. I was, of course, meatcake, standing about two-thirds of the way to second with a runner on that base and on third as well, and since no one else took off, I high-tailed it back to first and slid in safely because the first baseman didn’t realize he actually had to tag me. I eventually scored. The second big mistake was when I was on first and the hitter behind me belted one down the left-field line. I thought I heard the home plate umpire yell “foul”, so I stopped just before I got to second, but it turns out it was the catcher yelling “home”. So sorry, Matt, I turned your double into a single. But we both moved up on a wild pitch and both wound up scoring anyway, so no harm done.
It was definitely a rough night on the bases, but I did lead off the bottom of the last inning in a tie game with a single to right, and my pinch-runner (I’m not fast, to say the least) wound up scoring the winning run.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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I’ll give 2 weeks before Ricciardi is fired. Please Paul Beeston, if you are reading, remember how it was to run a winner? Your GM is not cutting it. How many more mistakes, until we’re in last place permanently? Call Pat Gillick. Please!!!!
MW: If Ricciardi was going to be fired within the next two weeks, he’d have been fired by April.
- Danny from MapleHey Mike,
Wow, Dave Collins! I loved him in 1984 and couldn’t believe that Bill James hated him. What was your thoughts of him and did you have other guys that you like growing up and then realized later, they were not actually that good? For me, Damo Garcia is the ultimate.
MW: When I was a kid, I thought Dave Collins was awesome, too. I also loved guys like Alfredo Griffin and all those low-OBP guys the Jays had back in the day.
- WilDefinately not a Blue Jays question but I’m wondering where in Toronto one can go to get some cheap batting practice (that’s not a drive out to Scarborough or Mississauga)?
I really want to do the softball thing next year (I’m sure it must be too late to find something in ‘09).
Where does one even begin serarching for a softball team to play with in Toronto?
What’s amazing is that U of T doesn’t have a baseball team (or even small department softball teams). Awful!
I’ve only become a baseball fan of late (my 4th year into this and it’s officially an obsession). I’m sure I’ll be weak out there but I really want to learn. It’s really depressing that it seems so impossible to start from scratch when you live in downtown Toronto.
I always enjoy the softball updates!
Keep up the great work and congrats on the new show!
MW: Help out, readers! I don’t really know where to go in Toronto to find a good batting cage, or how to hook on with a softball team. But U of T doesn’t have a baseball team anymore? Or intramural softball? That surprises me.
- AndrewHi Mike:
Dan Schulman on Prime Time Sports tonight said that he had never in the “history of baseball” seen pitching injuries the likes of which the Jays have experienced in the last year and a half.
I know you have chalked these injuries up to “coincidence” but cmon Mike, with the exception of Halladay and Downs, all of these arm injuries have to be the result of either coaching or training staff issues.
This does not happen to a lot of teams and we just don’t hear about it.
Name me one team in the majors who have had their entire five man rotation from one year all be on the DL at some point the next year.
I just can’t chalk this up to bad luck or coincidence.
MW: You can’t, but I can. Currently, the Jays have six pitchers on the DL, which is the most in the big leagues, but the Braves, Orioles, Marlins, Dodgers, A’s, Padres and Rangers all have five pitchers on the DL. The Angels started this season with 60% of their rotation from last year on the DL, the Jays started this season with 40% of their rotation from last year on the DL. And it’s Shulman.
- BrentSo your the Alex Rios on your team??
BAHAHAHA
MW: No, I was definitely paying attention.
- MikeBrutal!!!!!!
I hate to say it but the team is starting to always find a way to lose. The high priced guys never seem to come thru when they must. This year is a lost cause and question both Cito and JP.
MW: But not the players?
- Barry RAYthank goodness the sox lost tonight,,looking forward to meaningfull jays ball in august
- lemongello fanCito again just leaves me shaking my head with his line-ups and lack of pinch-hitting. How does Rolen need a day off when he has four next week? Roy Halladay must see the weak line-up Gaston puts in to provide offensive support for an ace striving to win another Cy Young, and think… he might be better off elsewhere.
Also, how can the Jays’ let Ruiz languish in Las Vegas when they need a bat until Snider is ready? Play Lind in left and DH Ruiz. A no brainer with the way Ruiz is killing the ball.
MW: One would think the call to bring up Ruiz would be pretty easy.
- Kelly PfeifferMike. would you trade doc to texas for
Neftali Feliz
Justin Smoak
Derek Holland.
Smoak can rake but is a 1b/dh type only. he would play whatever position lind doesnt.
Feliz is a gas throwing pitcher who just keeps improving.
Holland is a lefty hardthrower who the jays have actually seen this year, and he seems to have good stuff, just needs refining.
the only problem is even if the rangers in principle agreed on this trade on a talent for talent level, Hicks is having money problems, and Doc might not want to go to a place where he has historically pitched bad for him.
MW: Smoak seems like a terrific prospect, but he’s still young and just starting out as a pro, and Feliz has some control issues. That’s not an offer that blows me away.
- General ZodDespite your “egregious” baserunning errors, I think it’s a good idea, the next time you talk to Alex Rios, to politely offer him some tips…see, you didn’t get out on those plays.
MW: It’s true, I didn’t.
- Sean in LethbridgeHi Mike,
The last time I was inspired to write you, Scott Richmond had 11 strikeouts and the Jays were still a respectable 3rd place in the AL East, 4 1/2 games behind Boston. Today, they got swept by the Rays and are now 9 games off the division lead and the wild card. The 27-14 start seems like a distant memory now. To top it all, there are rumors of Roy Halladay possibly leaving the Jays. As much as I agree with your observation that things are not as bad as they seem when things go bad (and vice versa), this current slide feels even worse than when they went through the 0-9 road trip that knocked them off the top of the division. I don’t know if you get to speak with Mr. Halladay on a regular basis, but please try to convince him to stay in Toronto, even though he has said that he wants to win, i.e. he wants to play for a winning team. I know it is extremely rare now for a player to spend all his playing career with one team due to the realities of the sport, but Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. were able to do it despite their teams not making the playoffs consistently during their respective tenures (although Baltimore did win a World Series and San Diego won 2 NL pennants during the time they played). As a bonus, both of them were inducted into the Hall of Fame. While Halladay may contend that the Jays have not made the postseason since he started playing for them, unfortunately the Jays are in a division where there are too many good teams and the club cannot spend at the same level as the Yankees and the Red Sox. But that doesn’t mean that Halladay’s future legacy (assuming he also makes the Hall of Fame) is diminished because of that. If anything, his loyalty to the team adds even more to his legacy, not to mention his outstanding pitching.
A few questions: In your opinion, how can the Jays return to the glory years of 80’s and early 90’s, culminating in the World Series Championships? What is Tampa Bay doing right that makes them better than the Jays at this point, even though they have a smaller payroll than the Jays?
MW: There’s nothing I can do to convince Halladay to stay with the Jays, of course. I think the Jays are on the right track to returning to their glory years, developing some great young, controllable pitching and terrific defense, with a couple of young big bats. The problem is that they’ve been exceedingly unlucky with injury, and that the hitters who were supposed to steer the ship haven’t done so. They could also stand to develop a good big-league shortstop and catcher. Tampa has drafted well - having had a significant drafting advantage over their entire existence - they’ve made some good trades at the deadline to acquire players like Scott Kazmir and Dioner Navarro, and they’ve gotten lucky with guys like Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Carlos Pena, Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist.
- AnthonyMike, i noticed Travis Snider is not in the Las Vegas Lineup after going 3-6 yesterday.
Any chance he got the nodd, seeing as the jays are getting real desperate.
Lets be Honest i would rather Snider learn in the bigs then see Millar/Dellucci take up a spot in the lineup.
MW: So would I, but no, Snider wound up pinch-running in the 8th inning last night. If the Jays were to call Snider back up, and they should, they wouldn’t do it until after the all-star break at this point.
- MikeHi Mike
If I am BJ Ryan and my employer offers me the choice of going to Vegas to ride the bus or receive a cheque for 15 million knowing that another team will pick me up, I am taking the latter and staying in the majors.
I am thinking there will be a team that will take a free chance on Ryan.
MW: Eventually, I think so, too.
- Mike MMW: If when you go 15-27 you’re liable to be toast, then what does it mean when you go 27-14?
A: You’re liable to be in contention! If the Jays go on such a roll again, they could get back in it. But they won’t. So they’re not in contention in spite of that flurry. Too bad. Is there any sound reason to be optimistic going forward (2010 - 11)? To me it feels like it’s back to the first days of JP — cut spending, use journeymen, finish around .500 and accept mediocrity. Help!
MW: What’s stopping them from going on such a roll again, the injury to Scott Richmond?
- JCGreat blog. I was listening to the fan lastnight and a caller who was a bussiness guy called in and made what might be a good point. That the morale of the team might as high as it was in april/may because of the amount of fans showing up and also rogers. Meaning if these fans don’t to show then why should we give our all. One more thing if they can pull of 2 of 3 this weekend and boston is giving a ride by kc it might not seem so bad going into the all-star break.
good day mike!! looking forward to your comments.
MW: Professional athletes can’t allow a lack of attendance to affect their performance.
- robHi Mike
As always, you are the even keel guy. You look at this season in the big picture, you probably look at life that way too.
Interesting comment on Overbay and Cito being complacent when they don’t show emotion. It is all optics. Fans expect Cito and Overbay to rant and throw water bottles when things don’t go well while.
Regarding how good this team really is?
In the last four years, the problem has always been situational hitting, not pitching. Even this year, with regular rotation down, the subs have done well. Jays WHIP is still one of the best and they are still one of the best in hitting, but not situational hitting. The last 30 games is the prime example.
It seems that each year, the jays have problems, different personnel, but still hitting problems. Last year, Rolen was overcoming injuries. Hill was hurt. They had the Wilkerson/Mench experiment that went sour.
This year, Rios and Wells are slumping and Overbay is hitting 0.30 below his career average. The veterans brought in for their bats (Millar and Dellucci) are not performing. It is the same problem all over again…. sigh
Mike, this team needs people who can hit when it counts and for the last three years, they haven’t been doing it.
Francis
When half of your players are not hitting, you have a problem.
MW: It’s easy to find players who can hit when it counts - they’re in the same aisle as the unicorns.
- francisMike….
didn’t see this game do not much to say about it.
Wanted to say…congrats on the new show (you have a new one starting right?).
Agree or disagree, you deserve it. You’ve put in the work and I look forward to it (i’m being serious)
MW: It started last Monday - you can download the podcasts.
- RealityCheckThe Jays were the proverbial “rabbit”. A rabbit is a racing term, where a runner early in a marathon gets way ahead of the pack. Only to be caught half way through the race. Because he isn’t good enough to keep up the pace. Thats the blue Jays. The rabbit has become the turtle. Its gonna be a long second half for Toronto baseball fans. And Baltimore is only 4 games back.
- Rick GraceHi Mike.
“They lost all three games by one run each…”
Not only is that phrase redundant, it is also inaccurate, as the score of the first game was 3-1. Yes, it was a walkoff homerun and, in effect, a one run game, but I know you’re all about accuracy.
MW: You’re right, and I’ve fixed it. Is it redundant, though? Because to say “they lost all three games by one run” could be intrepreted as they lost all three games by a combined one run, which is as impossible as it is inaccurate.
- JayMike,
I’m confused. You’re not playing slo-pitch, but enjoying softball. How was there a wild pitch? If you are playing fastball, I get it, but not if the ball is just being laid in there underhand and not windmill.
MW: It’s not just being laid in there, that guy threw hard! So does our guy. Just no windmill, but you can run once the ball crosses the plate.
- Tim RowlandI am great with players having a day off, it’s a grind. But is there a reason that both the leadoff man and the cleanup man sat the same game? And with only three more games until the break?
MW: I don’t know that the fact that a break is coming up means much to the guy who has played 86 games in a row, and Scutaro’s replacement got two hits, scored a run and drove one in.
- IanAnd that’s the glory of baseball isn’t it, compared to any other sport. With 182 games in a season, all the winning and losing streaks will average out. With a great start, but pretty bad since then, they will probably end up just where we were told they would be by Jays management at the beginning of the year!
Even still though, all these one-run losses are hard to swallow. I wish they could find some way to win those games!
MW: You’re not the only one. It’s only 162 games, though.
- CJohnson03When Rolen has a day off to rest is he in the ballpark or home in bed. There were many times this year he could have been used as a pinch hitter and wasn’t. What about Scutaro if he didn’t want Rolen’s hit streak to potential come to an end on one at bat. Cito places too much faith in batters - he will probably say Millar has come through before…that was in April against Texas at home when he had the walk off hit…what has he done since? He doesn’t seem to have the same patience for his pitchers though.
MW: As I mentioned in the post, Gaston believes that a day off is a day off.
- Strat“They lost all three games by one run each”
The Jays lost the first game 3-1.
MW: Yup, but they only needed the one. It’s been fixed.
- Scotthey mike,
if rolen pinch-hit for johnny mac to lead off the ninth, and got out, would it have ended his hitting streak?
or does it only count when a player starts a game?
MW: If you get an at-bat and don’t get a hit, you don’t have a hit streak anymore.
- DiegoColangelo has the creativity and the power to redefine a line up every year, Brian Burke has already set in motion his firm sense of identity and direction, and who can say not what has Ricciardi accomplished, but what is he trying to accomplish. I think at this point the Jays need to significantly remake this line up by acquiring dynamic position players through a Halladay trade as soon as possible ( his value is after all tied to the length of his expiring contract). They need to trade the flaky Rios and Overbay. They should send Tallet to the bullpen and call up guys like Castro or Purcey and give them significant time to make their adjustment. They should get rid of Dellucci as soon as Snider is healthy, whether Snider is hitting well at triple A or not.
The Rays have already proven it takes dynamic youth to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. Let’s see the Jays put a hard-nosed, talented and aggressive young team on the field for starters.
- Will, OshawaHey Mike,
Do you think fan reaction plays a role in the Halladay process and the final decision? The blogs are full of people saying they will abandon the Jays.
I also thought there was a lot of truth to Stephen Brunt’s piece in the globe. I really think there are broader implications to this move than simply losing the best home-grown Jay ever. Attendance, merchandise sales, television audiences and charitable donations to the Jays Care Foundation are all areas impacted by a dealing Halladay.
Thanks Mike
MW: I don’t think fan reaction can play a part in the process or the decision, other than the fans’ current unwillingness to fill the ballparks. There’s an old saying - if you think like the fans, you’ll soon find yourself sitting among them.
- Jeff (from Germany)Mike why do you praise JP for guys whove come from the system and have had one good year so far or less
Adam Lind
Ricky Ramaro
Jess litch
Shaun Marcum
Compare these guys to Boston’s selections over the past ten years and you’ll relize that here is no comparison. Look at where Boston has selected in the draft over the past 8 or nine years in comparison to the Jays. Yet they draft players lik
Kevin Youkolis
Dustin Podrillia
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jed Lowry
Johnathan Papoblbon
theses are players that have been around for more than a year and some amoung the best in the league.
If you are going to credit JP for his recent selection of talent which has only been recent and have not yet even lasted a year, then you might as well credit him for Eric Hinske. The one hit wonder.
MW: Hinske was a one-hit wonder? The Red Sox took advantage of the fact that they weren’t bound by paying slot prices for some of those draft picks, every team in the majors passed up on Podrillia at least once, and I can’t see why you would put Ellsbury and Lowrie in a different category than Lind and Marcum.
- ThomasJust to satisfy my curiousity, would you be so kind to explain the difference between slo-pitch and old man softball?
I’m trying to picture the scenarios you blog, but I just assumed that old man softball and slo-pitch were the same thing. Never heard of a wild pitch in slo-pitch though (no leading off or stealing).
MW: This particular brand of old-man softball is exactly the same as fastpitch, just without the windmill.
- MikeDWhy don’t the Jays give someone Brian Dopirak a shot as being the backup first baseman role instead of Millar, and see if Dopirak might have something to offer?
MW: I’d like to see them give Randy Ruiz the shot first, and maybe get Dopirak some time at AAA.
- CynicalGuyI’m not a JP hater and I give him a lot of credit for the pitching he has built here, and for being accessable to the fans - even though he stopped WWJP. I am however very disappointed in his decision to open the Halladay trade can of worms this week.
I’ve heard people say “he was just answering a question” but I wish he could have answered without causing all this speculation. Of course the press ran with it and it may just be a tempest in a teapot
if that overwhelming offer does not come this month (as you predict).
I’m disappointed that when Doc arrives in St Louis he will face a barrage of reporters asking him questions on a topic he does not want to discuss, thereby detracting from his experience there. I also beleive that Doc can’t be very happy about Cito’s decision to sit Rolen/Scutaro and put Millar in at #4 on his start. On the whole I think JP and Cito combined to really annoy our best player.
It may be overly cynical but I’m wondering why JP stirred the Doc pot one day before cutting BJ loose. Maybe he’s hoping one of those offers will include a top closer.
I really hope Doc stays this year because I don’t see the Jays making a serious run in 2010 without him.
MW: Halladay faced those same questions last year at the all-star game in New York, too.
- Rez“You can’t expect to win with Kevin Millar Hitting 4th or 5th”. I totally agree with this statement. I just don’t understand what Cito is thinking. You would want to have your top hitter hitting earlier and get more at bats.
- JayMike,
At what point do the powers at be realize that with this current group of Blue Jays, we just aren’t going to make the playoffs with this team. At what point do we “consider” trading the most important Blue Jay since Carlos Delgado and perhaps the best home grown pitcher the blue jays have ever developed. Roy has given us so much and asked for so little. I’m sure this current little storm that has been going with the trade rumours is just media speculation but the question is out there, do we have what it takes to compete with this bunch or do we start stocking up and tell everyone that has trade value and start over again. It’s a tough sell to this city but it’s one that will probably have to be done, it’s unfortunate that there are so many band-wagon fans who have been brain-washed by the leafs but they may have to understand that sometimes you do have to make these unpopular moves. In the end it’s Roys decision so it should be up to him. What do you think about the direction the franchise is taking? And one more quick question, after Rolen’s contract expires who do we have to play at third base. Sorry for the long winded message Mike but I had to ask. Thank you.
joe, toronto
MW: How is it Roy’s decision - other than that he can turn a trade down when it’s presented to him? The Jays have Brad Emaus, Scott Campbell and Kevin Ahrens on the way up to take over third when Rolen is done (or take over second and move Hill to third).
- joe, torontoMike,
I’ve been listening to you since you began this
gig with the Jays. I think your popularity really grew when you learned from McCowan to be contrary . (Still remember how he ate you up the first time you were on his program). Being the contrarian is the way to get more listeners, because people love to argue their positions. That’s what McCowan does. He argues the unpopular opinions. You have learnt that and do a great job .r
I was friends with the late John Robertson,when he wrote for the Montreal Star.(also gone). He once told me that to succeed in this business, you had to be controversial,and not a do goody.
I love listening to you and reading your blogs and comments. Keep up the good work.
p.s. Did you go to school in Thornhill.
MW: I don’t feel as though I’m a contrarian, I haven’t patterned myself after McCown and He was very warm and welcoming to me the first time I was on his show. No, I didn’t go to school in The Hill.
- DANNYMr. “Lovely” Wilner:
This was my first chance to listen to the “Baseball Today” show. I have to say it was one of the more enjoyable shows I have heard in a very long time.
The choice of guests was excellent. It made me wish the show was longer to allow more in-depth discussions, or that you chopped it down to two guests per show to allow the same thing.
Sheehan, of course, is a favorite of mine, and I was happy to find he was as fast verbally as he is literate in print.
My “Judas Priest” band shirt (remember, the black centers with the white long sleeves with the band name running down the arms which used to fit in high school but oddly enough don’t fit any more) and I, however, take great offense at your approval of Ratt over Judas Priest. Kudos to your producer.
Please keep up the great work. Maybe a different blog for “B.T.”? I volunteer to be your moderator for either forum for free.
I’m a tad intolerant, though. Poor grammar won’t ever get through me to you. Just a warning. My Mom was an English major at U. of T.
MW: Glad to hear about your intolerance! No dice on yet another blog, though. If anything, the bloggage will suffer with the addition of B.T. I’m also glad you enjoyed the show - it’s tough to get guests to stick around for two segments, though, and I apologize for your love of Judas Priest.
- James (from the Church of the Double Steal)Hello Mike
Regarding a possible Halladay trade, I agree with a point you made in an earlier post.
It may not be in the best interest for the Jays to commit 20 million dollars a year to a player who will be 38 by the time the contract is over. As great as a pitcher Halladay is now, there is no guarantee he will be the same pitcher throughout the life of a five year contract. A team should be paying that kind of money to a 27 year old, not someone who will be pushing 40 by the time the contract is finished.
Halladay’s value is at its highest now. Not next year. Any team that trades for him will get him for this year’s pennant run and next year.s. As well, that team will have first rights to negotiate a new contract. With a full no trade clause, Halladay will only go to a team that HE wants to play for.
What the Jays will/should get in return are young players with high potential that can have an immediate impact and the ability to improve over the five years that the Jays may control them for.
I hope I am not boring you with more Halladay trade talk, but losing Halladay is big news.
- Mike MMike - I just want to answer to the response you gave me on a previous blog (below)
I appreciate that you don’t like the Jeter “Cult” and I don’t believe that he is a baseball DemiGod as you said (The only player I would consider a baseball god right now is Pujols). I do however find it funny that the way Toronto fans/media treat Halladay (and I’m not comparing Jeter to Halladay) is very similar to the “Demi God” treatment that Derek Jeter gets, just in a smaller market.
In regards to “Ask Ken Huckaby” I’m not sure what relvence that has to Jeter being a “stand-up guy” He was obviously hurt on the play and worried about the extent of the injury and how it may effect his career. I think most likely he was more upset with the situation the Ken Huckaby…is Ken a Friend of yours? Maybe that would be a good interview for your new show.
And Quickly, who really cares about what Alex Rodriguez thinks about anything or anybody.
MW: Huckaby’s not a friend of mine, though I did enjoy him when he was with the Blue Jays - great guy. My reference there was because Jeter threw Huckaby under the bus for a hard, hustle, pure baseball play on which Jeter unfortunately got hurt. It’s true, who cares about what Rodriguez thinks, but seriously “There’s no controversy, I’m the shortstop”? Not what you’d expect to hear from the ultimate classy team guy.
- JasonHi Mike:
Here’s a question that’s been bugging me for awhile. Why are so many Blue Jay pitchers going down with arm injuries. Is it something the organization is doing wrong. If so, maybe the Jays should look at trying to strengthen the arms of the pitchers instead of trading for pitchers.
MW: It’s bad luck combined with coincidence.
- KeithWill Baseball Today be put up with a podcast feed or at least get its own blog so that we can listen to the audio if we miss the broadcast?
MW: It’s being podcasted, you can download it off the front page of the website.
- JoelMichael,
You can’t stop Cito and Kevin’s bromance. Afterall, is there a greater statistic than friendship?
Billy Beane is known for being able to recognize undervalued commodities and take advantage of them. For awhile it was high OBP guys, then perhaps defense was an undervalued commodity and I think JP took advantage of the latter. My question is, what do you think the undervalued commodity is now in MLB?
I look at Russel Branyan and his good SLG% and OBP and wonder if the pendulum hasn’t swung back to those type of guys being undervalued.
MW: Maybe three true outcome guys are still a little undervalued, but I still think the pendulum is swinging towards defense.
- Uncle BenMike,
What is the status of Scott Richmond? Which pitcher is closest to coming off the DL?
MW: It might be Marcum. Richmond is shut down for, I think, another week.
- MarkHi Mike sorry for not giving Joe Sheenan his due yesterday I was really messed up!
I just read some more tidbits about Wells in John Heymans article at SI today.
do you seriously still think VW doesn’t have negative value right now?
A suggestion’s been made that the Blue Jays might ask any acquiring team to also accept the onerous contract of underproductive center fielder Vernon Wells as a prerequisite for Halladay. But executives have not heard this directly from Toronto and don’t believe any team would take Wells, who has almost $90 million remaining on his $126-million contract, under any circumstance.
If any team agreed to take Wells with Halladay, the Jays “would do it in a minute,” one executive with an interested team opined.
Another executive characterized the Jays’ chances to unload Wells in two words: “No shot.”
MW: I don’t think Wells is very tradeable right now, for sure, nor would I trade him right now.
- Dustin“Dustin McGowan emerged as one of the AL’s most promising young pitchers by winning 14 games with a 3.62 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 32 starts from mid-2007 to mid-2008, but began struggling following a 125-pitch outing last June and had season-ending shoulder surgery a month later. His recovery has gone poorly and general manager J.P. Ricciardi hinted Wednesday that his career is in jeopardy.”
Prior to his 125 pitch effort on June 10th he threw between 88 and 103 pitches in his 13 starts. What was up with that 125 pitch stint? He never pitched anything resembling a good game in the five starts he made after that game. John Gibbons was fired on June 19th. This fiasco may well have had something to do with it. I wonder what Gibbon’s views on this might be now.
Was this sudden increase in pitches thrown really necessary? It looks like another promising career is now down the drain. Wonderful.
MW: You can’t honestly believe that 25 extra pitches in one start caused this, can you?
Well yea. That’s why some teams actually adhere to their pitch counts for young pitchers.
Every game after that McGowan was a totally different and less effective pitcher. And then he needed surgery. It’s pretty common knowledge that most sports injuries occur after an athlete is already exhausted when additional stress to the body has a much higher risk of serious injury. He hurt himself in that game, made five more ineffective starts, then had surgery. It’s not really that hard to see.
MW: I find it very difficult to believe that one higher-pitch outing broke McGowan.
- KitHi Mike;
The Blue Jays seem to be a very unlucky team. I know that all fans think this way about the teams they cheer for, but I cannot remember the Jays ever having six starters (Litsch, Marcum, McGowan, Jansen, Richmond, Ray) on the DL nor can I think of any team in baseball that has six starters on the DL. They’ve had 12 starters this year. I’m a numbers guy. If I’m incorrect about this being an abnormally unlucky team please give me some numbers to support your argument.
Thanks
MW: You’re not wrong. This is an abnormally unlucky team.
- MarcHey Mike,
Curious to know if your stance on trading Doc has changed? I still think there’s a haul waiting for him. I beat this to death (sorry) - but the O’s got Sherril, A. Jones, C. Tillman (one of perhaps the top 5 pitchers not in the majors - Matusz would also be in that group), Kam Mickolio (just made the majors)…all that for a much less talented, not to mention team oriented pitcher. Mcphail changed the direction of the franchise with that and the Tejada trade - I just wish the Jays would stop trying to heat their house with the windows open. Go young and worry about contending in 2 years rather than every year - I think they are stuck in the middle. I know, easy for me to say because JP needs to produce yearly…but the Jays seems so stuck in the middle?
MW: I don’t think they’re quite stuck in the middle, but they have to behave differently than 25 other teams because of their situation. If they can get a Bedard haul back for Halladay, they’ll make that trade.
- GaryBlue Jay splits:
versus TB - 1-5
versus Bos - 2-4
versus NY - 2-5
others - 38-30
remaining 75 games:
35 versus the “big three” and 40 versus all others compared to a 19/68 split for the first 87 games.
First 41 games - 27-14
next 47 games - 16-30.
Could the Jays be heading for a crash landing.
The Jays are still four games ahead of the Orioles in the struggle for fourth. Can they hang on? Could be very close.
Of course with Kevin Millar taking over from Wells in the clean-up spot, things could be picking up soon.
- the stat ladyWilner,
I wasn’t going to comment, but once again it seems you took a shot at Gaston so I’d feel remiss if I didn’t say anything.
I find it peculiar that you continually find fault with Gaston’s managing style but can’t seem to find issue with your boy J.P. It always leaves me feeling that you’re rose coloured glasses for J.P. is on a little too tight.
You stated in the previous blog, “but the thing about big gambles is that they don’t always work. Ricciardi has won a lot more of those gambles than he has lost, the problem is that the big ones stick out - like Ryan, Frank Thomas and Luke Prokopec.” BIG GAMBLES NOT WORKING OUT??? Why sugarcoat it? B.J. Ryan’s contract was the worse signing in Bluejay history, with Frank Thomas and Vernon Wells following a close second and third. You compound that with the lack of any playoff success in 8 years of service it should be more then enough grounds for dismissal. How he is still the GM of this team is beyond me.
This is not a personal shot against him, I am sure he is a fine human being, and he has definitely done some good things with the club especially finding some young arms, but when you are in a division where the margin for error is very slim, he has made such gigantic mistakes way too many times, that anything less then dismissal should not be accepted.
I just wish that as a the voice of the Jays, you would be a little more objective when discussing J.P, especially when you have no problem criticizing Cito.
MW: B.J. Ryan’s contract turned out to be the worst in Blue Jays history, I’ll give you that, but it was a big gamble that didn’t work out. How is that sugarcoating it?
- BobbyC’mon Alexis Wilner, run the bases properly! LOL
MW: You’re a little late with that, but I’ll take it.
- Buck16Mike,
Am presuming you’ve seen this, but perhaps not all your listeners-readers have. It’s Baseball Prospectus’ mid-season top 25, and (if it’s at all accurate) more bad news for our Jays, who fail to land anyone in the top 25, or in the accompanying honourable mentions. The Orioles and Rays, on the other hand, place three and four on the list. Red Sox and Yanks also have a couple.
Midseason Top 25 Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
2. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins
3. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees
4. Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers
5. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants
6. Buster Posey, c, Giants
7. Carlos Santana, c, Indians
8. Chris Tillman, rhp, Orioles
9. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles
10. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins
11. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves
12. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks
13. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
14. Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers
15. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds
16. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
17. Dominic Brown, of, Phillies
18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
19. Jason Castro, c, Astros
20. Tim Beckham, ss, Rays
21. Brett Wallace, 3b, Cardinals
22. Matt LaPorta, 1b/of, Indians
23. Michael Taylor, of, Phillies
24. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Phillies
25. Michael Saunders, of, Mariners
The Next 25 (listed alphabetically, if you couldn’t tell before): Tim Alderson, rhp, Giants; Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates; Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox; Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles; Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Rockies; Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians; Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies; Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays; Aaron Hicks, of, Twins; Brad Holt, rhp, Mets; Eric Hosmer, 1b, Royals; Austin Jackson, of, Yankees; Casey Kelly, rhp/ss, Red Sox; Jason Knapp, rhp, Phillies; Mat Latos, rhp, Padres; Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros; Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets; Matt Moore, lhp, Rays; Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals; Derek Norris, c, Nationals; Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers; Ben Revere, of, Twins; Esmil Rogers, rhp, Rockies; Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs; Nick Weglarz, of, Indians.
MW: Talk to me about these guys in six years.
- steveI heard your show today. Most enjoyable. I found it interesting that Spencer Fordin did not agree with you that Ricciardi hadn’t really changed his tune about Halladay but was simply stating that the GM must always at least listen to offers. Fordin was right. Ricciardi has changed his tune. Halladay was always regarded as untouchable. As recently as July 24th 2008, Paul Godfrey went on record to say that he would not trade Halladay and expected to extend his contract. I have to assume that his GM was aware of this. In 2007 Ricciardi said he would trade anyone not named Halladay. (I’m searching for this quote which I think was in The Star.)
While I agree with trading Halladay, I suspect what has happened here is what was rumoured to have happened last year. Halladay wants to pitch for a contender. The Jays don’t look like contenders, and Halladay must believe that they are not close to being contenders. Halladay has quietly made it known he wants out and I cannot blame him. Ricciardi is now doing what comes naturally and talking to the media. So we have a whole big circus where we didn’t have to have a whole big circus.
Mike, you and I have fought about the GM a lot. But please understand that I don’t dislike him because he’s brash and abrasive. If he was successful I’d be singing his praises. I dislike him because he hasn’t done the team very much good except in the area of pitching. And he manages to create balagans like this for no reason at all. All the blather of ‘winning seasons’ is just that: blather. Until the Jays actually make it to the post-season it really doesn’t matter whether they are above or below .500. Yes, we play in the toughest division and we don’t have a US$200M payroll. But last time I looked, the Marlins had won the Series twice. And their payroll makes us look like the Yankees. Who haven’t won the series for 9 long years. It’s not just money here. It’s sound business decisions. The Jays are short of one and horrendously short of the other.
MW: How can you possibly compare the Jays’ situation to that of the Marlins? I really do appreciate your use of the word “balagan”, though.
- reyesI am absolutely disappointed in Canada. Lind did not deserves to finish in the bottom. I dont understand it, the jays have an average canada wide television audience of 300,000 plus per game. Take that 300,000 and tell them to vote 10 times total, thats 3,000,000 votes.
This 3,000,000 is only when you consider that 1 person is watching the television at home of course and thus 2 or 3 people on average per household voting 10 times and we get over 6,000,000 votes. Thats not including how many people decide to stuff the ballot box like me whom voted 3000 times. How does a state (with a few people here and there in other states whom like the rangers or tigers) beat out an entire country.
I love baseball, and its just disappointing because if it was hockey….the whole all star game would be made of Canadians because Canada would surely stuff that ballot box.
I wrote this in your last post before Lind echoed my sentiments with his comments.
MW: Lind was just joking, though.
- paoloI’m kind of interested in what’s up with the Rays now.
Last season they got off to a hot start and were projected to collapse all season (even in September) but it never happened. When they won the AL East and subsequently the AL playoffs it was attributed to an incredible amount of luck.
Pre-season outlook for this season was to expect a precipitous decline and a definite finish behind the Blue Jays who were expected to win between 82 and 85 games.
Now they lead the AL in run differential and are 4.5 games ahead of the Jays despite playing a more difficult schedule so far. Are they still a bad team that is simply continuing to be lucky; although I would tend to see a team with a poor run differential but an impressive record (Seattle & Florida) as a better example of a lucky team. From this point of view the Rays have actually been very unlucky this season. Their expected win loss record is 51-35.
Or have they now somehow morphed into a truly good team that is playing well with skill as opposed to luck.
Why won’t the Rays and their low payroll just go away and stop embarrassing the Jays big spending mentality.
MW: Pre-season predictions for the Rays were mostly for them to be in the playoffs.
- kitHey Mike,
Who do you thing will be representing the AL in the home run derby? Hill possibly?
Jack
MW: The HR derby hasn’t made much of an impression on me.
- JackRe: Roy Halladay. I don’t get it. Why are the Jays considering trading this guy? He’s only 33 and has at least 3 superior years and 3 good years left in him. He is not a diminishing asset. Why not re-sign him and let him finish out a steller carreer here in Toronto (ie: Jos Sakic in Colorado)? He can only help the Jays. I must be missing something…
MW: They probably won’t trade him, but he could become a diminishing asset sooner than you might think.
- Paul ConleyDon’t tell me you have the same baserunning judgement as alex rios.
I’m putting the over under of comments comparing you to rios at 10.5
MW: So far, three.
- Chriswhat do you think of halladay for evan longoria?
would the rays never do that?
MW: The Rays would never do that, and it’s debatable as to whether the Jays would.
- joshMike,
As discouraging as this stretch has been, I guess people don’t realize that there are ups and downs. It seems when things are up, they’ll only get higher, and when things are down, they’ll only get lower. If you look at the Rockies, they started off 20-32 and are now 46-39. Thats a record of 26-7. I’m not suggesting the Jays are suddenly going to do this, but you just never know in this game and people should still have hope for this team because I think this team is good enough to succeed, I truly do.
I looked up the stats on Brandon Inge and I noticed he had 7 more Ks than HITS! Adam Lind had 40 more hits, his average was 40 pts higher than Inge, and he had more RBI and is a much better overall player. It’s really horrible that a guy as good as Lind, and deserving of an Allstar game trip loses to Brandon Inge.
MW: That’s what happens when the fans get the vote.
- WarrenMike
From what you have heard concerning Blue Jays acquisitions in the past: How much does the simple fact of playing in Canada detract from the players that the Blue Jays are able to pick up?
Do you think players have an automatic red light go off when they hear the word “Toronto”?
Because of the lack of notoriety in the Toronto market, do you think they have a harder time attracting marquis players?
MW: I don’t know if they’ve ever tried to acquire Jason Marquis. I think some free agents might balk at playing in Canada, but for trades it doesn’t matter at all.
- HowardRob Faulds is right. If they are sending up a trial balloon to see if Jays fans are upset about a Hallaay trade.
This is no time for Canadian silence.!!
Send Beeston a message. We want Roy! to stay.
Cmon all you bloggers. Get out those backberries or what you have and send an e mail or a paper mail. Let everyone know that you are unhappy about trading Halladay until the end of his contract.
MW: If trading Roy Halladay can make the Blue Jays better, they should do so.
- BarbWhat the heck is going on? Rolen is going to get three days off next week. He is one of the bright spots on a dim road stretch the Jays are going through. Something to look forward to and talk about. Cito gives him a very untimely day off when he is seeing the ball so well. I know ,a day game after a night game. So what?
MW: So it’s worked really well for Rolen so far this season, keeping him healthy and productive. At least that’s how Cito sees it.
- Robert SpencerThe discussion about Scutaro came up on the JT tonight, here’s my two cents. 2 years, 8/10 is too much to offer him. Orlando Cabrera only got 1/5m this year, and had a real hard time finding a job. A big part of it was because he was a Type A FA and none of the teams wanted to surrender a pick to get him. Scutaro, as of now, is headed to the same situation, he’s a Type A FA.
For a guy who has made approximately 5m over the course of his entire career, I think he would jump at the opportunity today to sign a 2 year, 5-6m extension, and guarantee himself more money than he’s ever made. That sort of contract would work for the Jays as well, because as Jose Bautista proves this year, that’s not too much to pay for a solid utility bench player, if that’s what it comes to.
However, they really could be better off just letting him walk and taking the 2 picks. Here’s the latest Elias rankings from MLB Trade Rumors - http://www.scribd.com/doc/16831006/Rankings-062609.
MW: If someone is willing to sign him. Maybe they’ll work a sign-and-trade!
- AriMW: If you get an at-bat and don’t get a hit, you don’t have a hit streak anymore.
Even if you don’t get an at-bat you could still lose your hit streak: a BB, SF, HBP, sac hit (what a ridiculous term that is) would do it.
______________________________
“Compare these guys to Boston’s selections over the past ten years and you’ll realize that here is no comparison. Look at where Boston has selected in the draft over the past 8 or nine years in comparison to the Jays. Yet they draft players lik
Kevin Youkolis
Dustin Podrillia
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jed Lowry
Johnathan Papoblbon”
Did Boston not also draft Hanley Ramirez (who turned into Beckett and Lowell), John Lester, Clay Bucholtz (who already has a major league no-hitter and is tearing up AAA).
But people like MW keep telling us it’s the payroll that makes Boston a better managed team than the Blue Jays
MW: A BB, HBP or sac hit would NOT terminate a hit streak, but a sac fly would. Weird, but what can I tell you? Boston did NOT draft Hanley Ramirez. He’s Dominican and isn’t eligible for the draft. Wow, you’re wrong a lot tonight.
- the stat ladyHey Andrew,
I play in a league whose website is http://www.hpsa.ca. Its a good league with slo-pitch, fast pitch, and hardball. And this past weekend i got to play in a celebrity charity tournament with Rod Black, Kerry Joseph, Danny McManus, and a bunch of other sportscasters and cfl players past and present. Anyways this league is my first adult baseball league after i left Ryerson University Hardball.
I would suggest this league as they play in scarborough at Agincourt(Sheppard and Midland), and bridlewood (warden and sheppard). However they also have a few games in North York as well.
This league has everything you want, 24 game season, stats trackers, tournamenets, and plenty of teams that will be looking to add players, obviously not this year but next summer. If you are at least an average player, i might be able to help you find a team if your interested.
MW: Good work, Paolo!
- paoloMichael,
When was the last time a team used the four man rotation and what is the reason you don’t think we see it anymore?
MW: The last time a team used a four-man rotation for a whole season was back in the early to mid 1980s, and we don’t see it anymore because of what happened to Billy Martin’s A’s in 1982 or so.
- Uncle BenFirst, its a win, and its not RR Cool Jay on the mound. I was momentarily disoriented by that actually happening. Yay!
Second, In regards to McGowan and the high pitch count game, Baseball Prospectus has given a lot of thought to pitcher injuries and pitch counts. The data has shown that not only to tired pitchers have a higher risk of injury, regardless of how OFTEN they work, the risk of injury goes up exponentially as the number of pitches increases in an outing. Not every pitcher gets tired after 90 or 100 pitches, but tracking injuries has way more to do with the number of pitches in an outing, rather than how much rest a pitcher has had between outings, or how many innings a pitcher has thrown in a year. I’m not saying McGowan WAS hurt by the 125 pitch outing, but pitching tired is like playing Russian roulette with a pitcher’s arm.
Last, when do we see Snider in a big league uniform again? If I’m gonna watch a guy have an o-fer more nights that not, I’d rather it be the prospect with potential, not the old dude off the waiver wire.
MW: So would I. Evidently Snider’s been hurting again - a bruised knee in a collision at the plate in Vegas, but I have a feeling he’ll be back when the Jays come home from this road trip.
- Greg WHey Mike
MW: The only controversy and turbulence that focus on J.P. comes from the media and the fans who don’t like his personality, the team doesn’t see him that way at all. It’s not really much of an argument to say that the Orioles made the playoffs in 1997 and the Rays made the playoffs in 2008, so it’s not that hard to not be and AL East team other than the Red Sox and Yankees.
Mike, i think JP should be fired as well and i don’t give a damn what his personality is like. My favourite player was Bonds and he was a juiced up jerk. Of course the difference between Bonds and JP is that Barry backed it up with results, but JP backs up his lack of success with excuse after excuse. Not once in the past 8 years has he been able to make this team a contender. Maybe he isn’t baseballs worst GM, but at best he is average. And an average GM won’t be able to compensate for the disadvantages that come with being in the AL east. Its time for a change, the fans deserve a lot more than what they have been subjected to over the last 15 years.
One question….,How come when you refer to some of Tampa’s players ( Howell, Balfour ), you call it luck and then when guys like Carlson or Tallet produce you say JP is a genious?
MW: I don’t. That’s how come. I give him credit for finding Carlson off the scrap heap and for picking up Tallet for absolutely nothing, for sure, because he deserves it. And so does Andrew Friedman deserve credit for giving guys like Balfour and Howell a shot. Every team needs a good dose of luck if it’s going to win and last year, the Rays got luckier than most.
- rickFinally Alex Rios has some company in the baserunning department! ( don’t tell me you were doing a Scutaro at age 39…stealing 2nd on a walk?:)
Finally we have a no-hitter for 2009. How many teams have lost a game after their pitcher threw a no-hitter? I bet in 130+ years of baseball, there must have been a few of those.
MW: I didn’t try to steal second on a walk. Are you asking how many teams have lost the game that followed their pitcher throwing a no-hitter or how many games has a team lost while having its pitcher throw a no-hitter?
- BeburgSi is now reporting that the Jays are rethinking trading Halladay because of the fan backlash. I cannot tell you how much this gets under my skin.
If you are gonna trade the guy–and he should be traded in my opinion–then trade him. It’s the right thing to do and the fans will thank you when all the goodies you get for him turn up and do well. If you aren’t going to trade him, or you’re not sure you’re going to trade him, keep your mouth shut to the media while you’re working out the process. As you have said many times, the club shouldn’t listen to the fans, it should do what’s best for the club. Now all we have is a distracting mess curdling around the premier member of the team. If he didn’t want to be traded before–and I’ll bet he did–he surely wants to be traded now.
I’m wondering if it would be possible to trade just for prospects if the team could get a deal that included Wells and all or most of his salary. That frees up a lot of money to be used (wisely this time) in the free agent market.
MW: Halladay has never wanted to be traded. I’m pretty sure of that. And if the Jays are prepared to trade him, there’s NO way they’ll back off because fans are upset.
- isabella reyes#59 is a little off the topic with his diatribe about Scutaro, then his Elias piece on rankings of catchers. Seems his estimate of “two cents” is grossly inflated.
MW: He didn’t really do an Elias piece on the rankings of catchers, he just linked to Elias’ rankings of all players. You needed to scroll down.
- JackUncle Ben wrote, and your replied:
Michael,
When was the last time a team used the four man rotation and what is the reason you don’t think we see it anymore?
MW: The last time a team used a four-man rotation for a whole season was back in the early to mid 1980s, and we don’t see it anymore because of what happened to Billy Martin’s A’s in 1982 or so.
———-
In Chapter 2.3 of Baseball Between the Numbers, Keith Woolner discusses KC’s attempted four-man rotation in 1995. Tom Gordon and Kevin Appier were allowed too many 100+ pitch games and Appier’s ERA was 5.79 from July 1 to the end of the season and Gordon’s was 5.03 through August & September.
Woolner argues that a four-man rotation should be worth about 1.5-2 extra wins, but that pitch counts need to be monitored. In the chapter, he demonstrates that pitchers throwing on 3 days rest do as well, if not slightly better on three days rest compared to four.
MW: Cool. I’d love to see someone brave enough to try a four-man rotation again.
- Alan the stat geek