you’re comment proves that he has “some control” not no control as you have said they can pitch well and increase their chances of getting the win and thus have “some control”

MW: On a game-by-game basis, they have no control. I’m stunned at how so many people relish getting into semantic arguments.

Actually, yes it will matter. If they go 13-2 against teams from other divisions, both the Yankees and the Sox would have the same chance to go 13-2 and may manage to do just that. In which case all the effort won’t make much difference. If they go 13-2 against division rivals, they gain on and possibly pass those rivals who will be going 2-13 against them.

So if they do manage a really hot streak I, like your other poster, hope it’ll be against the Red Sox and Yankees.

MW: I know that those games are “four-pointers”, as it were, but they still have to outpace those teams in the non head-to-heads, too.

………….Bad……Good

AB………….260…….38
BA………….238……342
OBA…………300……390
SLG…………369……605
Actual OPS…..669……995
Neutral OPS….744……855
WW…………..23……..3
K……………30……..8
HR……………5……..2
ISO power……131……263
WW Rate……..8.8%…..7.9%
Contact rate…88.5%…78.9%
K-rate………11.5%…21.1%
Batting eye….0.77….0.38
BABIP……….253…..393

So what’s changed during his hot streak. His WW rate is down, his contact rate is way down, and his K-rate has doubled. However his isolated power has also doubled and his luck (BABIP) has improved by .140.

So he’s swinging harder, making less contact, striking out a lot more, but hitting the ball a lot harder. Part of the increase in BABIP is likely due to the increased power, and obviously his luck has improved immensely as indicated by the huge increase in BA despite striking our twice as often.

If the last 38 at bats are meaningful in any way (could just be a small sample size and random variation) they may suggest that he was suffering from an injury until recently and swinging less hard, sacrificing power for more contact. Because of his bad luck (low BABIP) this did not produce meaningful results. He is clearly hitting the ball harder now, albeit much less often.

MW: I don’t know if, considering 38 at-bats, you can say that he is “clearly” hitting the ball harder now.

You were discussing Rolen and the batting title last night, so I just wanted to point out something in case no one else has – his LD%. It’s currently at 30.5%, whereas #2 in MLB, Nick Johnson, is at 25.9%. This suggests that there actually is a reason to Rolen’s abnormally high BABIP, and that he may be able to sustain a higher than normal BA this season with his new revamped swing. It’s truly incredible that Rolen has reinvented himself to the extent that at age 34 he is posting an AVG/OBP well above his career norms, which were strong to begin with.

(You can sort the league leaders in LD% here http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2009&month=0)

MW: Cool – but doesn’t that mean that his LD% will eventually decline?

Rolen’s LD rate is a freakish outlier it is so far outside the rest of the distribution.

Rolen is looking amazingly focused at he plate and with his lower hand position, he seems to be swinging on a more level plane, which is conducive to line drives. Tony Gwinn and Rod Carew had success with consistently high BABIP, so maybe Rolen has found something. A BABIP of 0.360 is only a bit higher than he achieved in Philly and his first couple of years in St. Louis.

Almost to a man, Canadian players are a refreshing change to the game of baseball..They are honest, sincere players and they try to take the time to speak to people..Not that all American players are jerks but you can certainly peg several of them in that category.”

You can add Larry Walker to your list. Too bad we couldn’t dis-own Eric Gagne, saves record and all.

___________________________

“The last 2 spots were up in the air for me. There were 4 players vying for the last 2 spots. I ended up picking Texeira and Rolen over Kinsler and Zobrist. Thoughts??”

You picked four Blue Jays other than Halladay, so how realistic can it be. I suspect that Halladay will be the lone blue Jay all-star. Picking Rolen @ Hill ahead of Kinsler and Zobrist. That’s interesting, but I doubt than that neutral party will see it that way.

MW: I wonder where the spot for Zobrist will come from. Why would you want to disown Gagne? Nice guy. Surely you don’t believe he’s the only Canadian-born player ever to use IPEDS.

I’m listening to you talking about upper-deck home runs at the Rogers Center…people seem to keep forgetting about Josh Phelps’ homerun into the upper left field deck against the Yankees in 2002. Damn those Yankees. Love the show, love the blog, keep it up!

Noah

I was more impressed by Scott Richmond. 64 pitches through 3 innings, then 37 through the next 4. That’s one heck of an adjustment. I know Tallet did the same about a month ago, but I think it bodes well for him staying in the rotation for the rest of the season.

Keeping my fingers crossed for Halladay on Monday, Tampa always seems to be a tough team for him… maybe the bats will give him the usual 6 runs he so richly deserves.

Well, normally yes. LD% is one of the stats sabermetricians always use to see if a guy is actually performing poorly, or if he’s the same as he always is and just getting unlucky. So in otherwords, normally we assume that Rolen’s LD% would drop to fall in line with his career averages, because players’ batted ball stats shouldn’t vary too much from year to year. However, we all know Rolen is a completely different hitter than he used to be, because he’s completely changed his approach at the plate from a long, power swing, to a quicker, shorter stroke (and we were able to see the change with our own eyes over the course of a few months last year). That does leave some hope that Rolen is actually a new hitter, a line drive hitting machine, and if he could indeed sustain it then he might be in line for an abnormally high BA.

MW: We’ll definitely watch with interest.

Well before 1995 there was never a wild card team in the playoffs. There actually was a time when the top two teams in each league really wanted to finish ahead of each other….real bad (with a World Series berth on the line). Now they could care less. They’re too busy setting up their playoff rotations, as they now have to beat some team in a best of five series that finished 10 games behind them.

But that’s our society now. Everybody deserves a shot. And hey the fans (with all the dough) won’t lose interest if their beloved mediocre teams can play in the playoffs.

MW: That’s the reason I’ve steadfastly argued against expanding the playoffs even further. But turning up your nose at the wild card is just silly.

You can’t seriously believe that. Clearly there is a lot more to a pitcher’s win – loss record that his pitching ability, but his pitching ability is probably the major factor in his win-loss record.

MW: My prior statement remains true.

What exactly do you mean by “no control”. I’m flabbergasted that you would make such a statement, and then steadfastly defend it.

When Halladay, Clemens, Morris, & Hentgen won 20 games with the Blue Jays those pitchers had “no control” in their wins and lossos. When Josh Towers went 2-10 in 2006 he had no control over that either. I get it. Just a little surprising is all. People who vote on the Cy Young awards would really find “no control” a little surprising. They might buy “partial control” or even “little control”…..but “no control”. I know you’re right but I’m having a tough time wrapping my mind around it. This baseball is a strange game.

MW: A pitcher can throw nine innings of no-hitter and get a no-decision. A pitcher can pitch a complete game, giving up one unearned run, and take a loss. A pitcher can allow eight runs over five innings and get a win. Obviously the better one pitches consistently the better the chance one has to win, but pitchers have no control over their wins and losses.