1:00 AM Eastern
If you’re the Blue Jays, that is. They laid another egg, losing again in extras, and the Nationals have now won four straight, their longest win streak of the season. They’ve picked up 20% of their 2009 wins in the last four days against the Jays and Yankees.
Tonight, the hitting let the Jays down again – just four runs in 23 innings so far in D.C. after scoring 23 in 27 in sweeping the Phils.
Brett Cecil looked great, giving the Jays exactly what they needed with seven strong innings in his first start back, and Scott Richmond rode out on his white horse to pitch the 11th and 12th on just two days’ rest. A valiant effort, to be sure, but if the Jays had hit they wouldn’t have needed him. Still, major kudos go out to Richmond for helping out.
Vernon Wells went deep for the first time in 160 at-bats, and if you look closely at the replay, you’ll see that as the ball disappeared over the left-centrefield wall, Wells stopped for a second and appeared to scratch his head, trying to figure out what to do, before remembering that when that happens, you’re allowed to keep running all the way around the bases.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Tomorrow, Ricky Romero will try to play hero, and he’ll have back-up with a fully rested bullpen save for Shawn Camp (who also did a fantastic job today) and B.J. Ryan (which is a good thing). We’re on at 1:00 PM Eastern. It’s doubtful that Russ Adams, who was called up after the game with Joe Inglett going down, will be able to do much – he’s likely taking the red-eye overnight, though he could already be there since he didn’t play in AAA tonight. I guess the Jays just couldn’t hold Russ down anymore, what with him hitting .319/.363/.514 in Vegas. Weird splits, though – he raked lefties (.526/.500/.632) in just 19 at-bats, but those crazy numbers drove up the overall totals, because he wasn’t doing well at all against righties (.245/.317/.472).
Remember too to tune into The Blue Jays This Week tomorrow at 7:00 PM Eastern, it’s the Father’s Day edition, featuring Dad’s Day-related interviews with Cito Gaston, the “father” of 25 Blue Jays, and Lyle Overbay, the father of the three Overboys.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome.
Click here to subscribe to Wilner's blog
Hey Mike,
I’ll start by saying that I’m sorry if you’ve already commented about this.
What’s the deal with Brian Dopirak? He’s playing 1B for New Hampshire right now and hitting very well. A .304 avg., 16 HR, 22 2B, a .365 OBP, and a .945 OPS in 260 AB! He had a pretty good season last year with Dunedin/New Hampshire (.304 avg., 29 HR, 31 2B, .368 OBP, and .919 OPS). He’s 25 now and never played above AA. He hit 39 HR with a .957 OPS in ’04 in the Cubs organization (as a Lugnut, I believe), which isn’t that easy to do. In his minor-league career, he’s hit 134 HR with a .276 avg. and a .818 OPS, which isn’t terrible at all.
He was drafted out of high school, I think, so that’s like 7.5 seasons of pretty solid numbers. How did the Jays get him? Now, I realize that he’s only had 2.5 really good years, but still … why hasn’t he ever been above AA?
Thanks!
MW: The Jays got him as a minor-league free agent. His performance last year was taken with a bit of a grain of salt because he was a little old for the level, but he’s certainly impressing people. He’ll likely make his way to Vegas this year.
- Justin from ArdtreaWas there a bona fide reason for not ruling Vernon’s dropped fly ball an error? He had it in/out of his glove, then he hit the wall.
All this talk about BJ Ryan reminds me of another big-money bust, Bill Caudill. In those days($5m/yr?)it was BIG bucks! What happened to him after the Jays?
MW: The reason for not ruling that ball an error was because the official scorer didn’t feel as though it was a play that should be made by an outfielder using normal effort. But it was probably because he wanted to give Elijah Dukes a double and an RBI. After Caudill blew up real good for the Blue Jays in 1986, they released him at the end of the ’87 Spring Training. He was signed by Oakland, pitched eight subpar innings, got hurt and faded into Bolivia.
- JackI don’t know about Randy Ruiz’s defense, it is probably terrible, but you can’t tell me that his bat would be any worse than Millar’s. Millar does have the experience I guess, but I’ve got to believe Ruiz would be an upgrade. Certainly not a major move, but anything would help.
MW: You’re probably right, but Millar is there for more than just his bat, according to the Jays.
- BrettOof, Mike. Chien-Ming Wang is from Taiwan, not Korea. And apparently some kind of national super-hero whose performances on the mound affect the country’s economy (I’m not joking).
You have probably just alienated an entire country. Mike Wilner, Taiwanese super-goat.
Now I’m joking.
Have a good day, Mike. I really hope the Jays can pull one out against these National disasters.
- RoryLess than 36 hours ago, I was thinking it’d be three easy wins in Washington(and yes I did follow the nationals v yankees series). oh, well!
Baseball is a funny game Mike, isnt it? You are only as good as you are. Before the current 10-19 slide, the team was pretty much in the top 3 categories in hitting, everything from individual batting stats to team batting stats was inflated. five weeks later, it’s where it is supposed to be. Only couple of guys have underperformed/overperformed(hitters, that is) but the rest have pretty much played to their capabilities. Now I see why you don’t get carried away by couple of wins because you know darn well that after 162 game everything evens out and you’ll end up where you are supposed to end up. We’ve to face the harsh reality that Boston and New York are better than us and they’ll win the east and WC respectively.
P.S: I am disappointed, but from now on I’ll enjoy the games more because we are simply not good enough to be in the playoffs. Why worry and be sad after every loss!
MW: This is the thing, and it’s why I tell people to get off the roller coaster – there’s never a reason to get excited about a couple of wins, nor is there ever a reason to panic over a couple of losses. Teams generally end up where they should be, though there are always outliers. When the Jays were 27-14, they were leading the league in everything because teams that win 2/3 of their games generally lead the league in everything while they’re winning 2/3 of their games. I think you’ve gone a little too far the other way, though. The fact that they’re currently on a 10-19 run doesn’t mean they’re that bad, and all things considered, they’re still only two games out of the playoffs.
- Beburgdo you think managing in nl is harder than managing in al?
MW: Not really.
- nickHello Mike….I have to admit I was a little disappointed with the start of Bradley Mills.With all the hype that this kid could make the team out of spring training you would of thought he could of showed more….Although his changeup and curve ball are Ok his 88 mph fastball which he is afraid to throw doesnt look good for his future in the major leagues…if he gains 4-5 mph to his fastball with location and most important confidence he has a chance !!….also looking back at this season up to now how many wins do you think the Jays have had where Wells and Rios have been instrumental in those victories….for wells I cant think of any for Rios maybe one….thats brutal!!
MW: It was Mills’ major-league debut, so it’s tough to really draw anything from it, but I don’t think he needs to throw 92-93 to have a chance. Looking back quickly, Wells had a two-out double in the first inning on Opening Day that led to a four-run rally, and he walked with two out ahead of Adam Lind’s three-run homer in the 4th, so I’d say he was instrumental to that win. Rios walked to start that first-inning rally and doubled ahead of the Wells walk in the 4th, so he was, too. That’s just Opening Day.
- Mark from ThoroldHello Mike…. July 17th against the Red Sox …just after the all-star break…great time to insert Travis Snider and the catcher of the future in the starting line-up JP Arencibia…although Arencibia hasnt lit up AAA the instruction that he would get from Tenace,Murphy and Cito might turn his game around….Snider and Arencibia’s youthful exhuberance would probily be a good tonic for the Jays and who knows mite kick start there second half..
MW: “probily” and “mite kick start there” – you’re trying to hurt me, right? Snider needs more time than that to come back from his back injury, and Arencibia hasn’t shown that he deserves the call-up.
- Mark from Thoroldmichael,
is it just me or did watching those 2 games give you a distinct feeling of watching the baseball version of the movie “groundhog day?”
i don’t about you but that’s exactly how it felt to me. very weird indeed.
and i really don’t know sometimes whether it’s the game or the team within it that shows me so much vexation on occasion as it does.
cause’ there’s no doubt that these ebb & flow, high & low successions occur to every team in baseball over a 162 game schedule but it still doesn’t stop you from wanting to ring the necks of the guys you’re rooting for. ever it seems…
i gotta tell you though michael, i really, really like the looks of this young cecil.
you can give me a healthy marcum, mcgown, jannsen, litsch or a ever evolving romero or purcey but he is going to become the 2nd best starter this organization has in very short time. (he ain’t going to be playing the “slots” on his off days anytime soon, i’m at least quite certain of that)
not too hard to see i think…
MW: I agree with you.
- darrell bishopI’ve been looking at some defensive stats (Ultimate Zone Rating – UZR) on Fan Graphs. It suggests that Vernon Wells has been a horrible defensive outfielder for the last two years. Based on 150 games he was -24 runs last year and on pace for -32 runs this year.
Rios has slipped this year as well – still ranked as the third best right fielder at 1.4 UZR rating, but he’s posted consistently better numbers in the past between +10 and +30 a year.
What seems obvious to me is that Wells at a minimum needs to bat at the bottom of the lineup and move out of CF to right.
- Jim MaronWhat’s up Mike.
I think I’m the “reader you’re constantly deleting.” If I’m being too harsh I apologize. I will tone it down since I do enjoy this blog.
In Friday’s game I really do think that Hill took WAY too long to unload the ball to Scutaro on the double play that cost the run in the 4th.
Here it is again.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5130747
Here is Robinson Cano showing what talent looks like.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4528171
All smack talking aside. I would like to know why you think Hill is a top flight infielder.
Now that we’re finished with the Nats here’s a thought…
Hill
Cecil
Purcey
Overbay
for
Dunn (did riccardi’s mouth already burn this bridge?)
Guzman
Kearns
Thoughts? (on the Hill Cano comparison in particular)
MW: You still need to tone down the smack talk. I think that trade is horrible – I wouldn’t do Cecil alone for those three guys. I have been very impressed by Hill defensively throughout his career, though I’ll give you that this year has been easily his worst afield.
- RealityCheckYou know what’s strange? Every single game I see those two “umpires” at the back crowd, the Jays have NEVER won.
MW: Maybe that’s why they didn’t show for the finale.
- Eric CHello Mike
First of all, Wang of the Yankees is from Taiwan, not from Korea.
While we are on the subject, i am not surprised with how the yankees are doing now. Yes, they have added Sabathia and burnett but they have also lost Musinna, your fav – Sabathia is a wash with Mussina, who won 20 games last year and burnett, when it is said and done, is a 500 pitcher, a very expensive one at that. With the problem with Wang, there really is not much improvement in pitching. They have Texiara at first base but Giambi was not a slouch either – and losing Abreu must hurt, I like him as a hitter.
I still pick Boston to be there. They have a strong team and have such good players who have the knack of rising to the occasion, something the Jays have a lack of. It has been Jays pattern for three years now that they have problem with situational hitting (seems to me anyways)
I understand that if you have players with better hitting average, sooner or later, it translate to hitting when it counts. Even then, some players just have the knack of hitting when there are ducks in the pond. Pat tabler is an excellent example
Questions;
Is there stats that would show this kind of stats Mike?
Or perhaps getting Cust or Abreu as DHs.
Thx
Francis
MW: There would be stats that showed that, if there were any such players. There really aren’t, with the possible exceptions of Tony Fernandez and Paul Molitor.
- francis xYou can hang your hat on what they’ve done in the past, however this year they have been brutal. Rios and Wells continue to be 2 major holes in this lineup and as I and a boat full of others have said, I don’t see how you magically think they will get better? I really think until Rios and Wells are Jays this is what you will get no consistency. I really think in Rios case that a deal would benefit both the player and the club. A change of scenery is what this guy needs. You can look directly on these 2 guys for the loss tonight. Rolen and Lind back to back singles Rios hits into a DP. He just looks so bad on the outside off speed stuff low and off the plate, he continues to wave weakly at it. As for Wells great he homered(yippee) but look closely at what else he did a DP, a pop up when a fly would have scored Hill(nice job by Rolen by clutching up). You watch the game and just watch them in key situations and nothing happens. When Lind, Rolen, Scoot and Hill for example come up in similar situations, you actually feel they might come thru. I still thin a Rios for Holliday deal would be great for all parties, Jays get out of a contract regardless if Holliday stays after 3 months. A’s get a guy under control and Rios gets a much needed change of scenery. Scary thing is Rios was and still is my Favorite Jay!!! As for Wells not much you can do there. Everyone thought the pitching would be the problem but it continues to be the bright spot with everything going on. We need to change the culture of this team on the offense side. Until then it will be what we continue to get inconsistency on a series to series basis. I know trades are a lot harder to make than in the past, but this is what we will have until the so called leaders change.
Mike, kudos to you on the “bloggage”, it continues to be must read/listen material for any serious Jays fan! Good on you!!!
MW: The question I have is why do so many people think that Rios and Wells just magically got worse? And Rios, by the way, is currently hitting .273/.330/.444, which is just a hair off his career .287/.337/.454.
- tony43I’ve always wondered Mike what defines a “balk” and a “hold” in the boxscore?
MW: A balk is called by an umpire on a pitcher when he makes a deliberate attempt to deceive a baserunner. A hold is given to a reliever who enters the game in a save situation and leaves the game, having recorded at least one out, with that same save situation still intact.
- OzHey Mike,
Isn’t Wang from Taiwan?
MW: Yep. I was corrected only minutes later. My bad.
- PeterI was going to comment, but all I could come up with was ‘Aaaaaaaaaaargh!’
Maybe something will come to me after game three.
- Greg WI realize Snider is injured, but if he is soon healthy why wouldn’t the Jays bring this ‘kid’ up and insert him into the role of everyday DH up in the batting order. I don’t understand the reigning conservativism regarding young players (i.e. Lind early last year). You have to be able to evaluate talent and realize certain players have got it and could exceed expectations. They need a left-handed power bat, and Snider has got to be told he’s in even if he struggles.
I am sure he would pay off. He’s poised at the plate, he cares about the game and, by the way he plays outfield, is hard-nosed and confident. Nothing against David Delucci, but he’s not a power bat, only a veteran presence. Given the Jays payroll considerations, they’re sooner or later going to have to roll the dice with young, talented prospects and have them produce. Romero’s good, Cecil’s good–these guys aren’t 18 year old draft choices, they’re young men who are prepared to play at this level.
MW: Snider is only 21, but I certainly wouldn’t mind if they threw him in there everyday once he was healthy. However, they look at Lind and see how he’s doing right now after he was babied last year, and that confirms to them that they’re doing the right thing.
- Will, OshawaHey Mike, if Alex Rios countinues his hot hitting and seems like he has found his stroke, do you think Cito will move him back in the three spot???
MW: Maybe.
- AdamHi Mike,
I was wondering if you think it might be time for the Jays to take a look at Randy Ruiz at DH.I know he bats right and they are looking for LH help but he hits righthanders well according to the splits.Moving him up would also free up needed space for Brian Dopirak who deserves a promotion from New Hampshire.Both play 1st and DH and both are tearing up the leagues where they are.
MW: See above.
- PaulHi Mike,
Three questions for you, the first with two parts.
(1) What percentage odds would you assign to the Blue Jays re-signing free agents to be (a) Marco Scutaro; and (b) Rod Barajas?
(2) What is Brian Tallet’s contractual status? (the agents of both Scutaro and Tallet must feel as if they have won the lottery this year) and
(3) Given Dellucci’s struggles in his brief time in Las Vegas do you believe Adams has been called up to platoon with Millar until the ‘D-Double’ finds his stroke?
Thanks
MW: 1 – 50-50 on Scoot, 65-35 on Barajas. 2 – Tallet is eligible for arbitration for the third time this off-season. 3 – Probably.
- Sam RothsteinWho is the best manager in baseball?
MW: I don’t know.
- BrendanIf I did the math right,
League coming right out of the pen – 20.1 ip, 2.82 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
League coming out of the dug out – 10.1 ip, 11.33 ERA, 1.83 WHIP
MW: Interesting.
- Jeffy PHey Mike. Would you agree that Julian Tavarez is the last of a dying breed? I’m talking about headhunters. Are there any more left besides this… guy?
MW: I don’t think he’s a real, honest-to-goodness headhunter.
- Matt from BCI apologize in advance if this has been asked and answered, but I haven’t seen it yet in a quick scan of the comments. My question is can you provide any updates on the progress of signing any of the top 8 draft picks. Seems like the jays usually wrap these up quicker in the year, I’m assuming this is due to going over slot on some of these picks.
MW: The seventh pick has been signed, but there hasn’t been any news about the other guys. I’ll check Tuesday.
- Clintif you wanted to trade for nick johnson before this series…
MW: He’s still the same guy.
- jeremyI don’t know if I’m hard on third base coaches or if I just don’t get it. Mariners manager John McClaren was a horrible third base coach. He got it wrong far more then he got it right when deciding when to send runners home. Nick Leyva is an upgrade but he has made some questionable decisions recently. In the first inning today, I was very surprised when he sent Rolen home on the very hard hit ball by Rios. He was safe, so on the surface it appears to be the correct decision but Rolen was safe because of a brilliant slide as the throw beat him to the plate. What do you think of the job that Nick Leyva is doing? Rolen is an excellent ball player. While his power is gone, he does almost everything else better then average.
MW: I think Leyva is doing fine. There have been a couple of hiccups, but not nearly as many as Marty Pevey had last season. The Rolen send was a no-brainer, though. Two out, you send that runner.
- DomenickMike,
- Joachim TA note about Vernon’s swing. If you watch his swing from a side view, you may notice that he’s really swinging down on the ball at an angle which is sharper than his normal swing. In other words, his swing is chopping down or slicing down at the ball as opposed to more of a balanced swing through the zone. Therefore, the point of contact decreases through the strike zone when he swings – resulting in him just chopping the ball down to the ground or weak pop-ups/fly outs. He’s doing the same thing whether its a high or low pitch.
Mike,
If we operate under the assumption that the contracts of Wells and Rios will be difficult to move, is it reasonable to suggest that Adam Lind will be the Blue Jays opening day first baseman in 2011?
Thanks
MW: It’s not UNreasonable.
- Sam RothsteinWhoa Whoa Whoa hold on….
Re:
Hill
Cecil
Purcey
Overbay
for
Dunn
Guzman
Kearns
You’re telling me that you wouldn’t give up Cecil for all three?
For arguments sake lets take out the extra and get to the core of it. The Jays are blessed with an abundance of young left-handed starting pitchers. You wouldn’t give up Cecil (High potential yet still unproven) straight up for Dunn (40 HR, 100+ RBI, 100 walks a year).
Dunn would make every hitter around him get better pitches to hit. Not to mention what he would bring to the table himself. It’s no coincidence that Wells best years were in 2003 (Delgago behind him in the lineup) and 2006 (Glaus behind him in the lineup). I know you don’t buy the “theory” of protection but in practice (reality) it exists. Teams will pitch around a hitter if they have a base open and are not more worried about the guy hitting after him (Hence the 8 hole hitters in the NL getting nothing to hit with the pitcher following him). What that comes down to is this… 3 balls 2 strikes to Wells WITH protection like Adam Dunn, he gets what ever the pitcher is confidant he can throw for a strike (usually a fastball) instead of the pitcher trying to get him to chase.
You honestly wouldn’t trade Cecil for Dunn? Why’s that?
MW: They could have had Dunn for nothing but cash in the off-season, a move I would have happily welcomed. But to give up six years of Brett Cecil, who is likely to spend four of those six years as the second-best pitcher on the staff, for a year and a half of Dunn (the cost of which will be more than the six years of Cecil) isn’t a good move, to me.
- RealityCheckMW: Please tell me you’re kidding. You don’t really think they’re hilarious, do you? I mean, maybe the first time or the second.
I’m sorry. I know I’m going straight to hell. But when they’ve got their little masks on and they’re leaning forward with their hands on the wall peering out into the pitch, I think it’s a hoot.
That having been said, I’ve seen the show and I don’t need to see it again. But I did get a kick out of them.
- isabella reyesSorry, I may have read wrong, but are you saying that having BJ as lol “backup” lol is a good thing? When he comes out of the pen and you’re watching the game are you not honestly concerned that he will start putting ducks on the pond?
MW: Sure I am, he hasn’t pitched well at all. But that doesn’t mean that he can’t get back to pitching well at some point, and since they have to pay him anyway, they might as well find out if he can.
- MackyHey Mike,
I wish i could have risen to the level of the mellonheads on this road trip. But, however i am very glad that i got on tv back home without having to look too outrageous.
Finally, i hate the nationals stadium “employees”. In the words of an “employee”. “Oh your a Jays fan, we cant give you a t-shirt” or, “we are just going to avoid putting jays fans on the big screen because we are in love with ourselves.” I swear in Toronto, i can see a person in another teams outfit being shown on the jumbotron.
Overall, Nice stadium, in a sketchy neighbourhood, with great historic sites, but not very many restaurants. Unless you eat Mcdonalds all day.
Lets go bluejays, i am glad to be back home tomorrow, for a long homestand, in a city more accomodating.
Cheers
- paolo(sorry for the rant, p.s the ESPN Zone has terrible food and service, best part of it was the Sunday night baseball game).
On another note, i hope sabathia is out long term, so we can acquire that wild card position.
MW: That’s kind of mean.
- paolo“Re:
Hill
Cecil
Purcey
Overbay
for
Dunn
Guzman
Kearns”
Thats a lot of salary for the Jays to take on for one, and two, we would be giving up some of the best cost controlled guys on our team. For the marginal improvement that Dunn brings, Kearns health and Guzman’s for that matter would force us to depend on our bench guys way more then usual.
I think the only person who benefits from this trade is Johnny Mac since he would be playing a heck of a lot more then he is now with Hill and Overbay being so darn consistent.
Hill on his own could get a much bigger package then this. But, that said, if the Nationals saw this proposal they would be mad not to jump at it as this would be the steal of the century. This would make the Texiera bounty look like finding a lucky penny.
The one side effect of this deal that would make some happy is that JP would be fired immediatly and never be allowed to be a GM ever again.
- Daveif you wanted to trade for nick johnson before this series…
MW: He’s still the same guy.
I know but that mustache. It’s so intoxicating. I mean his OBP, not mustache.
OBPS, On base plus mustache.
MW: Could the ‘staches of Nick Johnson and Brian Tallet co-exist peacefully, though?
- jeremy