1:38 PM Eastern
The extra “L” is for losses!
It was pretty much a replay of the first six games of this losing streak yesterday in Baltimore. Jays get a very good outing from a starting pitcher, Jays don’t hit at the right times, Jays don’t drive in any runs, Jays get chances late but can’t cash, bullpen doesn’t help.
I mean, I could have written basically the same thing for a week.
At least Vernon Wells is starting to heat up. He drove in the game’s only run, and did it in the first inning to actually give the Blue Jays a lead. That was different, for a couple of reasons. First, it was Wells’ first RBI in 18 games. His last ones came on a three-run homer against Rafael Rodriguez in Anaheim back on May 6th. Believe it or not (I’m sure you do), Wells hadn’t even gotten a hit with a runner in scoring position since then, putting together an 0-for-15 run. But now he has four hits in his last seven at-bats, and even an RBI!
Second, the lead. Ahhhh, the lead, short-lived as it was. When the Jays were up 1-0, it was only the second time they’d held the lead on the whole road trip. They didn’t lead once in Boston, and in Atlanta only led in the top of the 3rd, when Marco Scutaro’s two-run double put them on top 2-zip. The Braves tied it in the bottom of the 3rd on Casey Kotchman’s two-run double.
The Orioles tied yesterday’s game in the bottom of the first when Melvin Mora hit into a double play with runners on the corners.
So for the entirety of this road trip, all seven games, the Blue Jays have never held the lead after a complete inning. Sheesh. I can almost understand why some of you think they won’t win another game this season.
Of course, a team is never as bad as it looks when it’s losing seven straight, just as it’s never as good as it looks when it’s winning two out of every three games for the first quarter of a season.
I feel for Brian Tallet, who said after the game “I started this in Boston.” It’s as though he actually feels some personal responsibility for the losing streak. That’s ridiculous, and equally ridiculous is him feeling any personal responsibility even for his two losses over the streak. In Boston, Tallet gave up two runs on four hits in six innings, walking two and striking out five. Yesterday, he gave up two runs on seven hits in six innings, walking one and striking out five. Both those lines should lead to wins with even a decent offense, or no-decisions at worst.
Here’s yesterday’s brief edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Tonight, the Jays will try to avoid consecutive loss number eight, as Ricky Romero makes his return from a crappy rehab assignment (14 1/3 IP, 17 hits, 8 walks, 12 K, 6.91 ERA, 1.744 WHIP). Romero was incredible in his three big-league starts before straining a ribcage muscle while sneezing, but it won’t matter how incredible he is if the Jays don’t improve upon their .127 average with runners in scoring position so far on this trip. Righty Jason Berken will be making his major-league debut for the Orioles. He has gone 2-0, 1.05 in AAA Norfolk, making five starts with a 0.97 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings. We’re on at 7:00 PM Eastern for a 7:05 first pitch.
Sorry for the lateness of the post, I spent half the night in the hospital after hitting my head pretty badly on the volleyball court, in a diving attempt to keep the ball alive. It’s funny, I’ve had a bunch of concussions and this was easily the hardest I have ever hit my head, but I had no immediate signs of concussion – no dizziness, nausea, blurred vision, nothing, and I remember the whole thing very clearly. I sat out for a few points, then went back in, and after the tournament was over (we won, woo-hoo!) headed over to the Trillium Health Centre in Mississauga, where they decided to give me a Head CT to make sure I wasn’t bleeding in there. Thanks to Dr. Michael Chung (sp?) and the staff for helping me out. It turns out the good doctor is a listener to the program – he told me how much he enjoyed me letting that “Lyle Doubleplay” caller have it on Friday night.
I’ll beat all you haters to it by saying that my brain scan came back negative!
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome.
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Hey Mike…glad to see you’re ok.
I was just wondering if you are concerned about the lack of Scott Downs during this losing streak? There were a few close games in both the Boston series and Atlanta series where he probably should have been used. Has he become only a “save situation” kind of guy? Seems like a waste..
MW: It’s very definitely a waste. I’m not “concerned” about the lack of Downs so much as disappointed by Cito’s unwillingness to use him when it’s not a save situation. Downs isn’t a “three outs, gotta go” kind of guy.
- Erichi Mike glad to hear your doing well after givin your noggin’ a floggin’….ive noticed a trend so far this season, at least I think I have, when Adam Lind contributes offensively, the Jays do well, he was making up for the shortcomings of Wells and Rios, and now that Lind has stopped hitting, the Jays offense sputters because Wells and Rios continue to be sub par, we’ll see if this holds true if Lind heats up again
MW: When Lind does well, the Jays win. When he doesn’t, they don’t. That’s been the pattern so far this season, without question.
- JeremyHey Mike
I hope you don’t have an Aaron Hill type of injury ;-), Things we do to chase a silly ball.
A question for you – how do they determine your fielding percentage? Is it player dependent or is it simply a matter of missing the catch and or errant throw?
Hope you feel better, we don’t want guys like Kypreos or Stellick doing Jaystalk.
Francis
MW: It’s amazing, but it seems as though I don’t even have a concussion at all this time. Fielding percentage is simply total chances minus errors over total chances.
- francis xHey Mike did you know there is a movie in the works based off the book Moneyball? Brad Pitt is suppose to play the role of Billy Beane. Among the cast list are actual former players such as David Justice, Darryl Strawberry, Lenny Dykstra, and Scott Hatteberg. I know JP was a big part of Moneyball. I wonder who could play his role.
MW: I did know about that movie, I wonder who will play J.P.
- Matt from BCIt appears you were wrong about BJ Ryan. You said they wouldn’t bring him back up until he was right, right enough to go back into the closer’s role. Well that obviously hasn’t happened.
It’s too bad, but we’re getting closer and closer to the point where we have to stick a fork in him. 2007 was a writeoff with TJ surgery fine. They bring him back perhaps a little early last year, and he had an up and down season, but overall the numbers weren’t too bad, though hardly dominant for a closer. I figured after a whole off season of rest, he’d come back and we’d see something close to the Ryan of 2006 again. He starts off terrible, then there’s talk of a trapezius muscle strain. So rest and a minor league rehab. Now he’s back and…eh.
I know that before yesterday’s horrorshow he’d thrown 4 fairly decent innings, but he just doesn’t have “it” anymore. The fastball is still 86-87, the slider is still flat. Control is wonky. Even when he gets outs, and has a decent outing statistically, it just looks like he’s walking a tightrope, and is *this* close to falling off. And too often (like yesterday) he does fall off.
MW: Far too often. Thanks for pointing out that I was wrong, though. I pointed that out, too, a couple of days before Ryan was called up.
- Flaming MoeHi Mike,
You mention in the broadcast about ‘the whole team at the moment being cold at the same time’. I don’t expect you to know the answer, but from the handful of years I have followed the Jays this seems to be a team trait …. it’s the whole team that seems to slump. I know Wells and Rios have not really got in their stride this season yet, but it seems to be all or nothing with the Jays, it’s never just half the lineup slumping.
This happens every year, It cant be just bad luck can it?
Another quick question, with Zaun behind the plate yesterday did they try to steal bases?
Cheers
MW: If it’s not bad luck, then what is it? The Jays tried to steal a couple of bases against Zaun yesterday, but he threw out Adam Lind.
- JohnnyMike – I’m glad to hear you are not unwell after your one-point landing.
I want to tell you about my buddy Big Al. We have been friends since our UW days and 20 years ago were roommates in the summer of ’89. We counted down the Jays magic number vs the Orioles from August onward. Three years later we sat together at a World Series game in the Skydome and watched Devo make “the catch” and later, Todd attempt “the slide” into 3rd.
Al has been living in Atlanta for several years and raising his kids. He took his son and a friend to see the Jurrjens game on Sunday. Two things of note happened:
1) 3 homerun balls landed in his section including one hit by the Jays. His son caught the ball hit by the Jays player. Unfortunatley that long ball came in the warmup.
2) Big Al got into a “friendly” argument with a local fan who simply refuses to believe that Kelly Gruber made the tag on Deion Sanders. I suppose some grudges last many years.
Let’s hope our Jays can beat up on a recent AAA pitcher tonight.
The starting pitchers are not listed for the full weekend. Can you tell me if my guess that Sunday starters will be Lester vs Tallet ? Looks like the Jays draw the same 3 Boston starters this weekend. They miss Doc, but we miss Beckett and Matsuzaka.
MW: It should be Janssen-Richmond-Tallet against the Red Sox. I don’t think the Jays are looking to skip anyone right now.
- RezHi Mike
Glad your injury wasn’t serious.
I must admit I am beginng to worry now. I have been a Jays fan since the beginning and plan to stick with them but 7 game loosing streak is tough to take.
I have a couple of questions. Buck Martinez said something about a knuckleballer messing up the hitters, Gaston mentioned it too. Could this be the trouble?.
Do you think the players are all trying too hard?
I also bet BJ is beside himself as he is one that takes his role seriously. I sure hope he gets it back.
MW: I can’t imagine that a knuckleballer would have only messed up the hitters with runners in scoring position. Remember, the Jays had 25 hits in the two games after facing Wakefield.
- Richard from ARMike, who do you see as the jays shortstop next year?I think its good possibilty that Marco Scutaro might be a Type A free agent. If that happens you see it hard for the jays to keep or it might make teams hesistant because of losing draft picks? How much do you expect he will sign for?
This is so similar to the catching situation expect that jays have Michael Barrett and Arencibia for next year.
MW: It is similar to the catching situation, with Barajas off to such a good start. I don’t know what they’re going to do at short next year. Maybe Scutaro gives them a good deal because they finally gave him a chance to play, but I don’t see it – it’s his one great chance to set himself up for life.
- VjeyI knew you had a negative side.
The last time I’ll mention the Snider story. I accept that he has been demoted to get extra at bats, but replacing him with Bautista
(a career .240 hitter, about what Snider was averaging in his first season) against right handed pitching, as Cito did yesterday, doesn’t quite make sense. Maybe you can help me here. Why was Snider being platooned in the first place, and not given a shot to play every day? Don’t you think, Mike, that the organization should bare some of the responsibility for being overly-cautious with Snider’s playing time and not simply trusting the obvious talent the kid has? It made a similar mistake with Lind last year, though only giving him 20 something at bats before demotion.
MW: Bear the responsibility, but no, I don’t think that was an organizational decision. That was completely Cito, it’s the way he believes young left-handed hitters should be brought along. See Shawn Green and Adam Lind for previous examples.
- Will, OshawaAlso i think Alex Rios is a good player but its frustrating not to know how good he will be.
I might be content with him if can put up the same numbers as he did last year. Although it will be a bit frustrating because he can be so much better and for those numbers he might be a bit overpaid.
I am waiting to see if Alex Rios is going to be a 30+ Hr and 100 rbis guy. I would be thrilled, if can turn into the player that he was in first half of 06 and 07. Is he going to return to that all star form.
MW: There really seems to be nothing that would suggest he can’t. Then again, there’s not much that seems to suggest he can, either.
- VjeyWoah, watch the noggin Wilner! We need you to steady the ship for the chronically knee-jerk-ish Toronto fanbase.
The past seven games have been a painful reminder of how last year felt oh so very often. The sad thing about this stretch is that on losing streaks you tend to see a lot of bad breaks and bad luck in the form of bloop singles by the other team and hard line-outs by the Jays. But throughout the entirety of this road trip the only thing I’ve seen that might fall into that category has been the odd borderline called third strike. And you yourself have said that hitters must adjust to such things.
At least the pitching hasn’t been totally to blame. I’m sure if you took a poll of Jays fans on April 1st they would have cited pitching as the team’s Achilles heel.
- KewlDood24These last 7 games I think are punishment for the starting pitchers now to see what the guys experienced the bulk of last season. The homerun and the timely hit have faded away. I was able to catch the end of the game yesterday and this looks a little like a team that needs a day off.
Concerning Wells and Rios. Over the last 2 years these guys both thrived in the leadoff spot. These guys are supposed to be your big power and RBI guys, but they are also probably your biggest threats on the bases. I know that you only leadoff once in a game, but hitting in the #1 spot also guarantees you the most ABs. Instead of moving them down, I wonder if moving them up to 1 and 2, sliding Hill to #3, move Lind to #4, Rolen to #5 and Scutaro to #6 would help.
You are right, they are not this bad. A couple of timely hits and the discussion is completely different. But isn’t this why we love this game? Jays still can win the series and head home in 1st place if Sox and Yanks drop the next 2. Jays were 1 game up at the end of April, let’s see where they are after the series against Boston to end the month. The way the Jays play at home, the upcoming 9 game homestand could be a complete reversal of this awful roadtrip so far.
MW: Career numbers suggest that neither Rios nor Wells has thrived in the leadoff spot. Rios’ numbers as a leadoff man are slightly, but only slightly, better than his overall numbers. Wells’ numbers as a leadoff man are much worse across the board.
- Aaron Keralso another quick question. Regarding Snider’s aribitration eligibility. Was he considered as a september call up last year? Last he came up in late august so does that mean all that time in August and september will count towards his mlb service time?
MW: All the time counts.
- VjeyHello Mike,
I can hear Don Cherry now, “look at that Mike Wilner! He hits his head and any normal guy would have left the game but he got right back in there..atta boy, Mike!! Its the Canadian way!”
I bet Berken will go 8 shut out innings in his debut, eh? Its the way things have gone for the Jays. However, if this is breakout night, things willbe very very ugly for young Berken. Hopefully Ricky Romero sticks with his strange pattern of pitching terribly in the minors but great at the big league level.
Gee, I wish I had heard what you saif to “Lyle Doubleplay”.
MW: Just go back to Friday night’s blog post and listen!
- Ian from WhitbyPeople do make a programme, and your program would be a bit more entertaining if you were a bit more inclined to accept other opinions. You have an opinion and that’s ok; others have theirs, and that should also be ok. Many who call do express rational thoughts although they may disagree with your concept of rationalism. Others should not be denigrated because of relative incompetency in making their points.
MW: I’m happy to accept others’ opinions, so long as they’re not based on information that’s factually incorrect. If someone presents an opinion with which I disagree, I’ll say so, and I’ll expect that person to be able to back up his or her opinion. Is that wrong?
- ArlingtonGlad you are feeling better. I have been playing volleyball twice a week for 15 years. I have had more accidents than playing any sport, including a concussion, broken bones, torn ligaments and temporary blindness in one eye. I guess the adrenalin takes over the better judgement. A nice win by the Blue Jays tonight will soften the soreness.
- StanI was on FOX Sports web site earlier today & in their rumor mill section there was a rumor suggesting Matt Holliday to the Cubs, Royals, Jays or a 4th team I forget.
Call it a dream but adding Holliday to this lineup would be sweet. Then we could all get confused on how to pronounce Halladay…Holliday…Hollywooday, lol
MW: It’s really confusing when Halladay and Holliday are playing in the same game. I hear people say Holliday and I want to correct them.
- PaulI’m sure that I won’t be the first to ask this, but how many times did the medical staff ask you how you were doing?
-LW
MW: Cute.
- LucasMike,
I know everybody out there has sore ankles from jumping back and forth but in your opinion what are realistic goals for this club by year end?
Is 2010 a year that Jays fans can start to think this team may be for real, legitimately?
Thanks for you time.
MW: A winning record, an idea at which most scoffed in the springtime, is a very realistic goal. Being in a race in September also seems that it might be a realistic goal, as well. In 2010, this team should be a monster.
- MikeI commented at the start of last week that when I go to New York, the Jays were 1-17. They are now 1-21 when I go there, and if I include their other east coast rival city, they are 1-24 when I am in either Boston or New York.
I was joking last week in saying that it is my fault that they lose when I am there. But this is getting weird!
Anyway, I’m back home, so I guess they should start winning again tonight.
MW: If they do, you can’t ever leave again between April and October.
- DarrenHey Mike,
I’m sure you have answered it on the blog in the past but what are your overall feelings about interleague play? I agree with a thought you posted yesterday arguing the perceived advantage the NL has at home because of the pitcher batting. I actually like seeing AL pitchers hit and I agree the NL is at a disadvantage in AL parks so I feel it evens out and the home team should have an advantage.
What I don’t like about interleague play (and overall) is the unbalanced schedule. I understand how marketable the “rivalry” matchups are but I still feel it should be balanced. I also agree with the philosophy of playing your division more than the rest of the league…I just think 20 games is a bit excessive. What do you think of Major League Baseball going with a more balanced schedule where every team would play each other at least once a year? If you were to play your own division 12 games a year (2 home series each), the rest of your own league 6 games a year (1 home series each), and the opposite league 3 games a year (alternate home series from year to year). This would equate to approximately 150 games a year. You could then use the other 12 games (4 series) as divisional or interleague rivalry games.
If this were the case you could also probably move an NL team to the American league as you could conceivably have an interleage game going on every day and you then could have an even amount of teams in each league and each division. As much as the Blue Jays are in a real tough division, it has got to be tough playing in the NL central with 6 teams fighting for first compared to 4 in the AL West.
If you were in charge how would you design the schedule?
MW: I would get rid of divisions and interleague play and balance the schedule. In the American League, teams would play each team in the league 12 times. In the National League, teams would play each team in the league 10 times. That would mean the AL has 156 games set and the NL 150. I don’t know how I would get things up to 162.
- Brendan LInstead of ranting and blaming JP for every single problem in the world. I am going to just say thank god they’re not the nationals!
- SMI think it was pitcher Dizzy Dean who was beaned while batting. When the hospital X-rays showed no serious damage, a headline in the next day’s papers read: “Dean’s head x-rayed, nothing foung.”
Can we now update that headline to read “Wilner’s head x-rayed, nothing found”?
MW: Well, not so much x-rayed as scanned, but sure.
- Ken from KingstonHow come Cito refuses to pitch Downs? it has been seven days since his last outing, even if they are losing he should see some action every now and then!
Also is it just me or does it seem like Alex Rios does not care? both in the batters box and in the field, totally emotionless
MW: Yes, Downs should. It’s not just you on Rios, it’s a lot of people, but it’s not true. Things look effortless for Rios, and a lot of people take that for a lack of effort.
- Mike D.Hey Mike…glad to hear that you’re feeling okay after hitting your head on the court. Just wanted to get your opinion on Alex Rios. I know it’s easy to get down on a team’s individual players when they are struggling during the “bad times” (i.e. 7 game losing streak) but I have always had some disdain towards Rios for, what appears to be, his lack of passion while playing the game. Often in the field he looks more concerned about being injured than he does about sacrificing himself to make a play. Whenever at the warning track he looks over at the wall several times before making the play…or not making it. The other night in Boston, Rios failed to make a play on a ball off the bat of Jason Bay because of his fear of the wall. The ball bounced off the top of the short wall and into the bullpen for a 2-run homer. A major-league outfielder just has to make that play!!! Here’s a link to the clip at MLB…
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200905214665749&c_id=bos
Rios seems to be a quieter version of Vince Carter, he has all of the natural ability in the world but he’s not willing to do what’s needed to get to the next level. Give someone like Reed Johnson an ounce of Rios’ natural talent and you’ve got yourself a bonifide future Hall of Famer!
MW: See above. I don’t think Rios lacks emotion, or passion, or doesn’t try hard. Nor do I think many major-league outfielders even get close enough to that Bay fly ball to “not make that play.”
- Jason CohenHey Mike good to see your injury wasn’t too serious. I haven’t got to see most of the games on the road trip cause of the TSN2 thing and being personally busy. Is a hitting slump one of those things a team has to fight to get out of or is it something that has to run its natural course? Cito seems to take the latter philosophy. Wondering what your thoughts are on this hitting slump?
MW: I don’t think there’s anything you can do to get out of it except get out of it.
- Vince LauzonLove the progam Mike. I don’t know how you tolerate the constant negativity. I think the majority of it stems from the same people who claim to be Leaf fans.
- MargaretI can’t say I’m pleased with this slump, but it’ll pass and I’m having a lot more fun following my team(s) this year than in many others.
Go Jays1
Mike-with Vernon Set to make twenty million next season, Will that effect the blue jays’ Ability to sign free agents due to budget constraints?
MW: Could be. But they only really count $12.5 million of Wells’ salary next season.
- srulimichael,
.127 batting average with runners in scoring position on this road trip.
oh that’s bad.
if it wasn’t for wells lately they might be very well be in double digits. wouldn’t that be something… hitting let’s say .97 as a team. man, either way, that’s a slump indeed.
and to think, the exact same hitters & lineup we were feverishly crowing over for almost 7 consecutive weeks straight with virtually no days off.
crazy game this baseball. you gotta love it……
MW: Wells only has one hit with RISP, so I think the average likely goes up if you take him out. And actually, .97 is REALLY good.
- darrell bishopAs much as we disagree, hope you are feeling better. It wasn’t. David Eckstein wasn’t playing with you, was he?
MW: No, but believe it or not, I Ecksteined one of our guys earlier in that same game, but he was fine.
- Kelly PfeifferToronto, ON – After a dismal week, in which they loost 41 consecutive games to drop into 8th place in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays have announced that Cito Gaston will no longer be manager, and will instead take on the role of head coach.
The move, seen as GM J.P. Ricciardi’s first ever intelligent one, because the Jays have never drafted or acquired a single good player during his tenure, means that Cito will have to wait an extra year before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
Gaston, however, will remain in the clean-up spot in the batting order, despite not homering in 48 of the 41 loosses.
Cito Gaston is best known for being a clutch manager, especially with his bat, but many Jays fans are too young to remember his last championship, because it was way back on May 12, 2009. In that outing, Blue Jays ace Roy Holiday once again showed his dominance, proving beyond all doubt that Toronto should trade him.
Former Blue Jays heart specialist, Reed Johnson, did not comment. Nobody asked him about it because he lives all the way over there in Chicago, due to some kind of work related business.
Cito Gaston feels that the transition to head coach will be a smooth one, because of the enormous amount of loyalty and support that Toronto fans always show their teams, even when things start looking down.
The team has not yet announced an interim manager, but it is believed that John Ferguson Jr. is the leading candidate so far.
-The Asinine Press
Maybe people have been reading stuff like this.
On a “seriouser” note, I think the Jays did a pretty good job with the demotions. Even though a case could be made to keep Keycil and Ray up, the fact remains that they were going to have to go down sooner or later, because of total innings. If one or both of them had pitched well for another few starts… well you wouldn’t want to be “stuck” keeping either or both of them up, then having the innings count max out in August or so.
I like the idea of sending them, and Tryvys Snydyr, all down at once, so that none of them were singled out. With Snider struggling, and both pitchers being touched up at Fenway, and the team being swept there, and Janssen/Romero ready to come back up, it all seemed to fit pretty well.
Mike, I hope you’re feeling alright. Gotta be careful! I smacked my chin pretty good on the concrete playing ball hockey last week, but it wasn’t a diving attempt at anything. I just wiped out and did a faceplant. Hockey + blood = good (but not necessarily too bright).
- Dilly in DundasMike I’m glad you’re okay.
Couple true/falses for you.
A) If the Jays play well until the ASG break, they will trade some prospects for a Holliday or Abreu type of player?
B) We won’t see Snider in the Bigs again until July/August.
C) Purcey doesn’t have a future with this team – his walk ratio is horrendous.
D) Cito’s occasional mis-management of the bullpen and refusal to shake up the lineup makes you wish for someone like Gibby right about now!
MW: A – False. B – True. C – False. D – I loved Gibby.
- RenegadeHi Mike,
I see that Jason Bartlett is now leading the AL in hitting!?! Man, I thought that Matt Garza having beat the Jays 4 times last year with a 0.50 ERA and then winning ALCS MVP was bad enough. Now how bad is that trade of Garza/Bartlett for Young/mediocre-backup-infielder guy looking for the Twins? What a fleece job that trade has turned out to be.
MW: Brendan Harris, and yeah, so far. Young has really fallen on his face, but he’s still only 23.
- JamieHey Mike
Do you think the reason that the Red Sox were able to hit Brett Cecil so well is because they picked up that he shows the ball during his wind up?
P.S. thanks for your time
MW: If they did, they were the only ones who have so far, and they only did it for one inning.
- Justin JurincicHey Mike,
I know you’re a big stats guy, I always seeing you quoting OBP, SLG OPS+ etc. to support your arguments. However I’d like to make a suggestion for you to better utilize these stats.
OPS is a big no-no, I like OBP and SLG and what they individually say but I don’t like OPS, because under that stat, it makes the assumption that 1 point of OBP is directly equal to 1 point of SLG, however that is not true.
OBP is worth more than SLG, I’m sure if you read Moneyball you heard of this refrence but OBP is worth about 1.5-1.6 more than SLG.
You can visit this link here for some explanations:
http://www.tangotiger.net/ops.html
http://www.tangotiger.net/ops2.html
You will see references to something called BaseRuns there (BsR), BaseRuns are to date the best correlation of how runs are created, heres the wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs
Again theres nothing wrong with OBP or SLG, they just aren’t equal to each other.
Cheers Mike
MW: I understand that OBP is more important than SLG (though I have been having an argument here about that for a little while), and I understand that OPS isn’t perfect – a guy with a .300 OBP and .520 SLG looks the same as a guy with a .410 OBP and .410 SLG, and they’re completely different hitters. However, it’s still a useful tool. No stat is perfect.
- Coreymike, I’ve made a lot of factual criticisms and you routinely dismiss them as idiotic but I’ve been pretty much always right. you need to stop acting like you are a genius and we are all idiots. some of us spend a lot of time researching the stats before we post and we dont appreciate you dismissing us.
here’s my take so far. the jays had the best record when they had the best offense. this losing streak is primarily offensive related. last year’s 7 game losing streak I think only had 2 games with scoring 2 runs or less. I think this 7 gamer has 5 games, which is worrisome. also what did anyone realistically expect from this offense? look at the lineup. they were clearly playing well over their heads. I may be off slightly, but 2006 they were 7th in runs scored, 2007 8th, 2008 10th, so what suddenly in 2009 they vault into #1? with the exact same lineup? it wasn’t and isn’t going to happen. and they are second last in stolen bases in AL. when you have little power and little speed you are not going to score a lot of runs.
the jays will probably be at best a .500 team rest of the way.
MW: I dismiss you not because of poor research, but because your posts tend to be insulting and often offensive.
- pabloJeez Mike, that sucks, hope you’re ok. I’m sure some of your callers make you want to bash your head against something solid (the other concussions perhaps?) but as least you picked up this one in the line of duty, more or less.
I’m sorry, I don’t remember the exact quote but you mentioned that you were not surprised when Cecil was sent down, due to some of the thngs he said after the game in Boston. The impression I got was that his confidence was rocked and he needed to ‘reset’ and realize that bad innings and bad starts happen to every pitcher. Have I got that right?
Now it’s sounding like Tallet is feeling something similar. I would think the team will handle him differently than a rookie, but will his feelings perhaps put him back in the bullpen, as he is an inexperienced starter, in effect protecting his confidence. Or, as an older player who has been around for a while will he be more likely expected to suck it up in time for his next start? I’m not saying that to disparage his feelings, I think that rationally it’s ridiculous to think he started the losing streak; he’s pitched marvellously in this rough patch, but I can understand why he would feel down about it all. I’d hate to see him doubt his abilities and I wonder if there will be a team reaction to them.
Thanks Mike, and take care of the head!
MW: The situations with Tallet and Cecil are completely different. I don’t think Tallet is having an issue with confidence at all (though Cecil didn’t, either). When Tallet says that he started this, he means that he was the losing pitcher in the road trip opener. I don’t think he believes he pitched badly, but that he didn’t pitch well enough to win on a night when his teammates only scored one run. With Cecil, he said that once the roof started to cave in on him, he folded.
- kitaMike,
My feelings on the current state of affairs in Blue Jay Land were perfectly summed up by General Zod (Comment #62 in May 23/09′s Break Time! column).
I’ll add to it a great quote by Boston sportswriter Ian Wilson. I believe it was originally addressed to Boston Bruin fans, but obviously could be applied to any fan(atic) base in the sporting world. “It takes neither courage nor intelligence to cheer for a team only when that team wins. The true test of a fan’s mettle is the same as it is for a player: Were you there when you were needed?”.
Judging from a lot of posts here (with a few exceptions) during this drastic regression to the mean either the Blue Jays have a lot of stupid, cowardly, knee-jerky fans or the courageous, intelligent ones realize that it is a long, long season and that there will be times like this. I think we’ve seen extremes in both directions with the team this year. I know it’s boring to hear again, but I don’t think the Jays are as good as the 27-14 version and I sure don’t think they’re as bad as this 0-7 skid has made them look. They’re somewhere in the middle and probably not a playoff team (probably never were). Does this mean they’re not worth watching? Only if you don’t love the best game in the world.
The question you all should be asking yourselves is: “What kind of fan am I?” Am I an irrational, knee-jerk, panic and abandon ship at the first sign of difficulty fan or am I the kind of fan that sticks around knowing that things will come around again? This is particularly the case now that the kid pitchers who got their ears pinned back in Fenway (and will probably be better for it in the long run) are back where they can develop and hone their craft, while the more experienced/older (Romero) starting pitchers are up here.
Throw out the two starts by the kids and you have 4 quality starts over the last seven games and the other one might have been had Scott Richmond not required a pinch hitter in the sixth inning of a 2-2 tie with two outs. I %@#&n hate interleague – but that’s another matter.
Two things that were not supposed to be strengths this year have been – the starting pitching and the hitting (excluding one week). Meanwhile the defense and the bullpen (barring a particularly massive meltdown on Sunday, which may or may not have been contributed to by Cito’s choice of Camp over Frasor to start the 7th – yes Mike, I do think Frasor gets a raw deal for being short, I wish they would look past the stature and see the impressive stuff, but I digress) have continued to be strengths.
Funny fact: Aaron Hill is tied for the team lead in GDP with Alex Rios at 8. The latter has been absolutely excoriated (perhaps rightly so) for being the worst regular hitter in the lineup, while nobody complains about Aaron Hill due to that robust 140 OPS+. Interestingly enough I heard Overbay referred to as Lyle “Double Play” Overbay the other day on The Jays Talk. Get a hold of yourself: he’s second on the team in OPS+ at 132 and has only hit into 2 double plays so far this year. Being in a successful platoon with Millar has something to do with that (credit that no good GM JP for getting Millar for next to nothing and Cito for setting up a platoon which puts both of them in a better position to succeed…or be miserable and don’t). Looks like Lyle, used properly, might actually have some value at the plate and he’s spectacular in the field. Don’t overlook the contributions Rios and Wells are able to make in the field while their bats are coming around either, or go ahead and overlook it.
The point is that the whiners, complainers and even the haters here will always be able to find something to whine/complain about, or get a hate on for. I just hope that the more balanced folks here and elsewhere won’t get sucked into their vortex of negativity. Sad, but unfortunately true,
MW: I have always liked this guy.
- Tom the InternMike,
Just watching the Pre-Game, any thoughts on Rance and Jamie calling the game from the warehouse in right field tonight?
What are the odds that Jerry and Alan will follow suit and begin calling home games from a CN Tower elevator if this streak continues?
jamiedew
MW: Bet your mortgage on it, so long as you’re betting with me.
- jamiedewHey Mike
Your post game analysis just before you go to the phones is classic. You sound absolutely terrified, grasping at any positive sign to try and calm down all the angry nuts getting ready to phone in and rant.
Even more hilarious is the fans knee-jerk reaction to the roller coster ride. When the team got off to a hot start, Cito was baseball’s best manager, JP was finally showing what a how smart he was, all the youngsters were great selections and the team was finally going to make the playoffs.
Now, after a 7 game skid, Cito doesn’t know how to manage a game, JP is back to being a complete idiot and the team is headed for last place.
The Jays were playing way above their heads early in the season, and now you must take the brunt for all those unrealistic raised expectations. Try not to get too frustrated, there are many level headed fans who actually enjoy the rants from the loons.
Regarding Vernon Wells, that situation will only get worse over the next few years. Vernon isn’t a bad player, but he is very similar to half a dozen other batters in the Jays lineup. The problem is, he is the cleanup hitter and he is one of the worst ones in the Majors, not to mention the fact that he is grossly overpaid. I wonder if the complaining would be minimized if you just admitted that he wasn’t a good middle of the order run producer and the contract is horrible one for the club.
take care,
MW: Read back – how many times have I said or written that Wells is ill-suited to be a clean-up hitter? That he shouldn’t be a 3rd or 4th place hitter on a contending team? Dozens? Hundreds?
- rickThere are three position players on the Jays who underperform annually..Vernon Wells, Alex Rios (since the Allstar home run derby in 07) and Lyle Overbay. Vernon doesn’t “do clutch” and is a sucker for the low-outside pitch. Rios looks uncomfortable at the plate in his strange crouch. Overbay just doesn’t (normally) get it done. All three are decent defensively with Wells and Overbay showing the best tools there. At times, I wonder if a benching would inspire them. In Rios case a trip to the minors to fine tune his offense. Perhaps a trade of one, two or all three of them. We won’t win with them; might we do so without them?
Rick
MW: Yeah, the Jays didn’t have the best record in the league a week ago or anything like that. Wells hit .300 and led the team in home runs despite missing 1/3 of the season last year. Overbay……you know what? Forget it. Think what you want.
- Rickjays win 75% of time when lind has a rbi soooooooo…..
cito said he benched rios 1 hr before game hmmmmm….I wonder what is going on
MW: Cito took Rios out of the line-up, that’s what’s going on.
- pabloVernon is looking less than ordinary in center again today. You can really see a difference when you play good CF like the Orioles have.
MW: You sure can. That’s why the Orioles are so far ahead of the Jays in the standings.
- RichardI know you hate the language, grammar, spelling, syntax errors of your listeners/writers, but really, please take note of your audience and cut them some slack. See how silly I appear being so petty?
MW: I know I wasn’t supposed to publish this, so I cut out most of it. I don’t think you were being petty at all. Writing “Jay’s” when one means “Jays’ ” is certainly a misused apostrophe, by the way. Look, I’m sorry that you feel the way you do, but I’m not going to apologize for demanding more from my commenters. I’m not sure I understand the “take note of your commenters” part. Do you mean they’re dumb? Lazy? Young? Unfamiliar with the language? I don’t think that any of those things are true (except maybe young, and that’s no excuse).
- Bill Feeneymichael,
yes of course .97 would roll out to a .970 average. that is quite good (i suppose)
you don’t see hitters posting batting averages too often under the .100 mark. forgot how to translate it to numbers it seems.
anyway, boy you ever need a road trip like this every so often to really put in perspective how serviceable a 5-4 or even 4-5 record is for team when you play a 162 game sched.
even though when this trip commenced the idea of 4-5 record would have been deemed a faliure, all i see is a team that would have come back home still in first place ahead of the sox & yanks.
and how would that be looking right now under the circumstances i ask you?
MW: It would have looked swell indeed, but people would still be upset over a 4-5 trip, which would have been perfectly cromulent. Now, though, it’s all about the push for 1-8.
- darrell bishopMike, why won’t you even entertain the phenomenon in these parts that has come to be known as the June Swoon. You will not even allow such an observation to post. I know your analytical, logical mind will not allow for any abstract notions because it because it simply cannot digest anything but complex formulas, but allowances should be made for this theory because it is rearing it’s ugly head yet again in June. Why can’t anybody solve why this team coincidentally or not, folds like a cheap suitcase in June?
Godfrey acknowleges it. He came on the air before the start of the season and said he would not tolerate another June Swoon and lo and behold it’s not only being tolerated but denied and supressed from the collective consciences by media members such as yourself. I believe this is a more than fair question.
MW: Actually, the reason I haven’t posted any of your comments is because I’m finished putting your comments up. I’ll throw this one in, just to point out that even though you have been screaming “June swoon” since BEFORE the Jays left on this road trip, it’s May. Also, what can Godfrey tolerate or not tolerate? He’s not involved with the team anymore.
- VitoFromHamiltonYou’re right: Tallet didn’t start this in Boston. I don’t know if you’ve answered this already (sorry), but my question is: did Wakefield start this slump? One of Jerry or Alan suggested that knuckleballs can throw off batters for a few days. Is there any reason to think that the effects of the knuckleball are still felt on the Jays?
MW: Nope. The Jays had 25 hits in the two games after they faced Wakefield. So unless facing the knuckleball has the effect of throwing off hitters only with runners in scoring position, Wakefield had nothing to do with this.
- BrandonThe blog was down last night,,, I actually thought you might have quit, but all the other blogs were gone too, just a little glitch I guess.
Just wondering…. do you think Cito juggled the lineup so that he would get a different question from reporters after the game? Or was it more specifically related to Alex Rios?
MW: It was about giving Rios the day off. I guess Cito couldn’t justify hitting Millar 3rd, which is a good thing.
- Greg WHey Mike,
I was wondering if you knew of a rule that prohibits players on the DL from having their jerseys visible while on the bench. I thought I remembered Eric Gagne getting fined/suspended for doing such a thing while with the Dodgers. Any how I continually see Michael Barrett with his jersey on display while in the dugout. Just curious, and also wondering how much longer before we see Barrett back playing with the team?
MW: I don’t believe there’s a rule preventing disabled players from being in uniform. Barrett will be out another three weeks to a month, I’d say.
- bootyMW – It’s funny, I’ve had a bunch of concussions and this was easily the hardest I have ever hit my head, but I had no immediate signs of concussion.
Multiple concussions are a very serious issue. You need to be careful. No more diving.
MW: Well, no more hitting my head.
- kitMike,
I don’t know how much longer I can stand this. Is there something, anything, you can think of to help me keep believing in the Jays?
I know we’re (yeah I used we, so sue me) not going to lose every game but getting off work everyday for the last 8 days and coming home excited to watch and/or listen to the game and then having my heart ripped out is really getting old. Contrast that with the manic high of a 4 game sweep of the ChiSox, and it’s like living with a manic depressive baseball team.
Please don’t include any lyrics to Don’t Stop Believing
by Journey, or any lyrics from Jumper by Third Eye Blind. Thanks.
MW: Why would you not believe in the Jays? I mean, not believing that they’re going to win the World Series or anything. You don’t need that, do you? The thing is – don’t let the highs get too high and don’t let the lows get too low.
- Sean in LethbridgeHey Mike,
Good to hear you didn’t crack the old melon. Perhaps a helmet….
MW: How awesome would that look on a volleyball court?
- DabidoMake that unlucky number eight. Cito finally changes the lineup and the results are not yet favorable. Does that mean he goes back to the regular lineup for Halladay’s start this afternoon, does he stay with what he concocted, or are more changes afoot? I just really hope this slide ends TODAY, and then they don’t spiral into another lengthy losing streak.
MW: Back to the same old line-up (that helped them win 27 of their first 41 games).
- VavaOh yeah, glad to hear you are OK!
MW: Thanks!
- Vavahere’s an idea
it’s pretty much a common thing that when you bring up a hot minor league pitcher to the bigs, his first time out he has an advantage. The players have never seen him before and it will take a couple of games before they get the book on them (e.g. Ray, Bobby).
I also think that young hitters coming up, when they’re hot, have a short-term advantage on pitchers because they also have to adjust for them (see Snider, Travis).
So if you’re team is in a bit of a scoring funk, why not bring up a hot hitting minor leaguer to spell some guys and take some at bats?
For example, this Dopirak (sp?) dude would be a good choice. Bring him up whilst he’s got it going and use him to spark things for a while. Obviously it will catch up to him after a few games and you can send him back down to AA, or maybe AAA just to reward him.
Nothing to lose I reckon.
MW: Nothing to lose if you believe in that sort of thing, but it doesn’t work out that way nearly as much as you’d believe. Remember when hot-hitting Adam Lind came up last May?
- Paul OI’ve noticed some earlier postings and a lot of local media hype referring to Halladay as the best pitcher in baseball, yes even better than Johan Santana.
A little research shows this to be preposterous:
Hits per 9/IP:
Johan 7.43, Doc 8.75
Strikeouts per 9/IP:
Johan 9.33, Doc 6.45
Raw career ERA:
Johan 3.05, Doc 3.48
ERA+ (taking into account park effects and using 100 as league average – best four seasons and career total):
Johan..182, 166, 161, 155..147
Doc….184, 158, 154, 145..132
DERA – ERA adjusted for team defense using 4.50 as league average (best four seasons and career total)
Johan..2.28, 2.83, 2.88, 2.97..3.06
Doc…2.50, 3.09, 3.13, 3.15..3.66
Interesting to note that Doc only has one season as good as Johan’s career average.
WARP – wins above replacement pitcher (best four seasons and career)
Johan – 12.8, 10.7, 9.4, 9.3…64.1
Doc – 9.7, 9.2, 9.0, 7.9…59.2
WARP per 200/IP
Johan 8.00, Doc 6.29
Career Win Shares
Johan 144, Doc 152
Win Shares per 200/IP
Johan 17.97, Doc 16.14
I’ve done a similar comparison for all the top pitchers of all-time. What is really interesting is just how good Johan is. If he continues anywhere near his current pace for the 2nd half of his career he will be one of the top three or four pitchers of all time depending on what metrics one attaches the most weight to, and how his career winds down.
Halladay is a great pitcher in his own right. If he had been pitching in the Jack Morris – Dave Stieb days he would have legitimately been the best pitcher in baseball. With a few more typical DOC seasons he will be in the top 15 or 20 all-time and a potential Hall of Famer, but people who put him in the same class as Johan are simply not aware of how good Johan is and has been, which I guess is perfectly normal when it comes to local media. After all look at how Maple Leaf hockey players such as Sundin, Sitler, Keon, Wendall Clark, Horton, Salming etc have been vastly over-rated when compared to their contemporaries.
MW: I don’t think it’s quite that simple. Something that’s often overlooked in the comparison is the quality of competition that Halladay has had to face on a regular basis, that really only the Orioles and Devil Rays’ starters (and other Jays) have had to for the last few years. I’d love someone to do a study looking at the quality of opposition for Halladay versus what some of the other greats have had to face.
- the stat ladyMiike,
Doc on the hill today should put an end to the skid. If you look at the Jays – they are getting on at 3rd, 1st and catcher…Wells I believe will be fine (but not what we’d like) and Rios seems to have lost his drive since the contract. Why do the Jays insist on thinking and acting like their players in the division? (not that i expect them to declare a rebuilding mode publicly). The Orioles used Hendrickson and Eaton to buy time for their pitchers to develop because they knew they were not ready to challenge the division…the Jays calling up Ray and Cecil was pure pipedream – let them dominate before bringing them up…the Jays need to suffer the consequences just as O’s fans have with arguably 2 of the worst starters in the game. I think rose colored glasses are setting this team back – they are old at key positions and it’s time to turn the page or they will be passed like a ship in the night by the rest of the division (if they haven’t already been passed)…you did mention they had Ray, Tallet, Cecil as pitching to compliment Doc – but every team has guys they think will be starters eventually – and Marcum and McGowman are serious question marks—the Jays have Aaron Hill, Wells and Rios…it’s time to move Doc and fess up to their shortcomings. I still believe they may be a last place team…not because of the losing streak, but because they’re average everywhere.
MW: Then you really don’t know what you’re seeing. The idea that Rios has “lost his drive since the contract” is ludicrous. He had a bad April this year, and a brutal six weeks last year heading into John Gibbons’ firing. Over the last 84 games of last season, Rios hit .309/.344/.534. The Jays may be getting on in age at those three positions, but the four players filling those three positions have been among their most productive. Where do you get the whole “thinking and acting like players in the division” thing? They haven’t made any personnel moves that they hadn’t thought they would, other than maybe sending Snider down. Both JP Ricciardi and Cito Gaston said before the season that this was going to be a development year, and both said they thought that a .500 record would be an accomplishment. I think you’ve made your mind up without paying attention to too many of the facts.
- garyhey mike;
The only problem with the jays seems to be the risp percentage, and the fact that they can’t cash in any runs as you stated. The pitching won’t be stellar all year, but the tallet and halladay, and richmond starts were winnable by a great margin- let’s hope there is a winning streak when i attend the game on tuesday vs the angels, ps, any chance of sending inglett down and bring up russ adams, he would be a better bat for sure- keep up the exemplary work as usual, thank you
MW: Adams is on the disabled list. Congratulations, though. I think you’re the first person in history who has actually requested the Jays call up Russ Adams.
- robert.sHey Mike,
Other teams with significant stretches of bad play this year:
Cubs: 8 losses in a row
Red Sox: lost 6/7
Yankees: Lost 6/7
Let’s not forget about that 9 games skid TB had last year.
Not saying the Jays are as good as any of those teams (though they might be), but to the Chicken Littles:
They’re not as bad as they appear. Keep on cheering.
- Kevin A.Hi Mike,
Really glad to see the blog back up and running. I’d lapse into catatonic schizophrenia without it during this mind-numbing, reality-bending, unfathomable losing steak.
Anyway, assuming the Jays let Barajas walk at the end of this season and they commit to go into 2010 with one or both of Jeroloman and Arencibia as the primary everyday catcher(s), do you think they can reasonably expect to win (i.e., with a rookie behind the plate)? Isn’t the catching position, with all it’s required preparation, knowledge of the opposing hitters, etc., just too important a position to entrust to a raw rookie in a supposed contending season?
I remember Jerry once making a remark about the shortstop position. Jerry stated that winning teams usually do not have a rookie at shortstop. Apparently, the `88 A’s were one of only a tiny handful of teams that have ever reached the post-season with a rookie shortstop (Walt Weiss).
Wouldn’t you think that the catching position is just as (or even more) important? Can the Jays really afford to break a rookie like Arencibia in at that position and still contend next year? I have my doubts.
MW: Last year, the Chicago Cubs had the best record in the National League. They also had the NL rookie of the year, catcher Geovany Soto. Arencibia or Jeroloman may well be the primary catcher next season, but whichever one is will likley have a veteran like Michael Barrett to lean on when he needs to.
- JamieHi Mike,
Just an observation here, but I believe that Lind’s hitting slump coincides with him having been taken out of the DH spot last week and placed in LF for the first game at Fenway and then in interleague. He’s looked really uncomfortable in the field on this entire road trip to me as well. I think taking him out of his “comfort-zone” could be a factor in his slump here. This would be a real shame if that’s the case, as Cito had him really embrace the DH role and he was running with it.
MW: I doubt that’s the case, but there’s no way to disprove it.
- JamieHi Mike:
I think the reasons for the Jay’s skid is indicative of the painfully obvious….some of their top paid performers; Wells, Rios, Rolen, Overbay and Ryan…just aren’t that good at consistently producing runs. I hope over the next 2/3 of the season they prove me wrong.
Brendon
MW: Why does the fact that Scutaro, Hill and Lind make less than those guys mean their contributions are worth less? And why do you think that it’s a problem that B.J. Ryan isn’t that good at consistently producing runs. I would think his problem is that he is.
- BrendonYou know I think I liked Rios better when he wasn’t getting base. He cost his team two base runners (one being a sure run) and gave the Orioles two free outs because he doesn’t have a clue. I know he hasn’t had much practice at running the bases recently, but that is not the time to catch up on his sleep.
MW: I’d really like to see the tape of his whole run home in the first inning. I can’t believe he didn’t score, something must have happened. The wandering off second? Well, that’s inexcusable in a little league game.
- kitHi Mike,
Just to continue on Lind: I saw some offensive metrics on him that predicted he would be a streaky hitter and therefore be prone to hitting slumps. This surprised me, as he seems to be now (and always has been) a very good .300 type hitter. He also seems to have much better plate discipline now as well. These metrics were somehow based on his swing rate on certain pitches and his walk rate. Do you buy into any of this stuff for him? I’m not sure I fully understand this kind of projection.
What I’ve seen lately is pitchers really mixing their approach with him AB to AB. They seem to be working him away, away, away, mostly but then change their approach and pitch selection completely in the following AB. Even Guthrie in the first game of this series threw Lind a complete mixure of pitches and locations AB to AB. Although the overall trend seems to be away with the fastball.
MW: I’m not sure I understand that projection, either. His walk rate has gone up this year, I’d think, but take a look – he’s been kinda streaky, too. And he’s in a bad streak right now – just 4-for-36 over the last 10 games.
- JamieHi Mike,
Long time fan, first time contributor. I was wondering long term how the blue jays could address an offensive need IF in fact the offence doesn’t have the depth that is needed in the AL East. How about trading two pitching prospects in the offseason for Adrian Gonzalez & trading Rios plus Ryan for Milton Bradley. That could give more depth and a ligit cleanup man allowing Wells to be moved to the 5 or 6 slot. The Rios trade is not as neccessary but could clear up some payroll and add a different personality to the roster.
MW: But not a personality that you’d want on the roster. Also, Bradley’s not a contract you’d want – Bradley only needs to play in 40 more games this season to vest a $12 million option for 2011. I’m also not sure they could get Gonzalez for two pitching prospects – why would the Padres want to deal him?
- SharjI’m sorry, but I have to ask. Just what exactly did you love about Gibby?
MW: I love Gibby. He’s a smart guy, knows the game inside and out, tough, challenges his players, rewards good play. He just couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position.
- CamMW: Adams is on the disabled list. Congratulations, though. I think you’re the first person in history who has actually requested the Jays call up Russ Adams.
I almost fell off my chair laughing
- PaulMike,
I am just really disappointed that Russ Adams has not been called up yet. When, if at all do you think RUss Adams will finally get a recall to the majors?
MW: See above.
- Jazzmichael,
- darrell bishopwow. perfectly “cromulent” you say… craptacular simpson’s reference my friend.
well played indeed…
MW: I love Gibby. He’s a smart guy, knows the game inside and out, tough, challenges his players, rewards good play. He just couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position.
Tough, as in his bout with Ted Lilly? It sure looked like Ted got the better of that one! lol
I know what you meant, don’t worry.
In a separate matter, who do you see playing 3rd base for the Jays next season? Does Rolen’s contract expire at the end of this season?
MW: I think Rolen plays third next season, if he can stay healthy. His contract is up at the end of next season.
- CamHi
I’m just wondering if its possible to throw a no-hitter if the pitcher is on the home-team.
MW: Yes, it is. Why wouldn’t it be?
- JimothyI don’t think Jesse Carlson is the answer for Setup man situation. I would rather see Downs in that role again.
I believe that set up man is just as valuable as a closer.
MW: You’re correct. But then, who is the closer?
- JayMW: I did know about that movie, I wonder who will play J.P.
Some helpful suggestions:
- Bela Lugosi
- J.P. himself (who could do it better?)
- Angelina Jolie (for star power alone)
- Gord Ash
- John Turturro
MW: Jolie gets my vote, and probably J.P.’s.
- KenWilner,
Currently at work and viewing the game on mlb.com. Can you tell me how did Doc pitch today? Is it time to remove Carlson as the set-up guy?
MW: Halladay pitched well, but not at his usual Halladay-ness, and I’m not sure it wasn’t already time to remove Carlson as the set-up man. I think I said something about that yesterday.
- BobbyWow this bullpen has been horribly exposed. What an embarrassement, especially for Doc.
MW: Why would Halladay be embarrassed?
- RenegadeThe temptation to give an in-game knee jerk comment is overwhelming.
But I won’t.
Sigh.
MW: Thank you!
- Greg WMike,
I love Gibby too!!
- BernardBecause a no-hitter is 9 innings and if you are pitching a no-hitter the most likely your team is winning and you dont need to pitch the ninth.
So thats why I was wondering if its only possible to pitch a no hitter when your away
MW: The winning team always needs to pitch the ninth inning, though.
- JimothyAt this point I just feel sad for them. The bottom dropped out so fast. However, as many have said, it’s a long season and sooner or later they will get a win. Just maybe not today…
I’d like to see Vernon Wells go on the diplomatic dl for a while. It might help his head, and Rios might make a better defensive centre-fielder.
MW: That’s not going to happen, and even if sitting him out was a thought, it would only be for a day or two, not 15.
- reyesMW: I don’t think it’s quite that simple. Something that’s often overlooked in the comparison is the quality of competition that Halladay has had to face on a regular basis, that really only the Orioles and Devil Rays’ starters (and other Jays) have had to for the last few years. I’d love someone to do a study looking at the quality of opposition for Halladay versus what some of the other greats have had to face.
Doc versus the Red Sox (240 IP, 4.46 ERA) and versus the Yankees (216 IP, 2.79 ERA).
Combined 456 IP, 3.67 ERA.
Johan versus the Red Sox (63 IP, 3.30 ERA) and versus the Yankees (54 IP, 3.15 ERA).
Combined 171 IP, 3.23 ERA.
So Johan is better than Doc by 0.44 ERA points, which is more than his total advantage against all opponents. If anything it appears that Johan handles the tough AL East teams better than Doc not worse. But it was a good try, a lot better than the fluff that most local media throw up there to support their positions.
By the way, it looks like the Jays’ bullpen is going to cough up an 8-2 lead as the Jays find a new and refreshing way to keep the streak alive.
MW: It was only an 8-3 lead, but they certainly did. As for the Halladay/Santana thing, I think that nearly 300 extra innings may make up for the not-quite-half-run difference in ERA.
- kitYou know, bad things happen, but Rios seems to have more than his share
Today…….out at home after taking a very short lead off second………..out at second after being called safe (doesn’t even check the call). You constantly state that he will have the #’s by years end, but you do not seem to see his lack of aggressiveness and attentiveness.
MW: I don’t think it’s a lack of aggressiveness, but there’s definitely a lack of focus from him at times. The play at second base was inexcusable.
- LexHi Mike:
MW: Why does the fact that Scutaro, Hill and Lind make less than those guys mean their contributions are worth less? And why do you think that it’s a problem that B.J. Ryan isn’t that good at consistently producing runs. I would think his problem is that he is.
Sorry I did not articulate the difference between the hitters (Rios, Wells, Rolen) and pitchers (Ryan) producing runs.
To clarify, Scuturo, Lind and Hill’s contributions are no less or no more than those of Rios, Wells and Rolen. However, their expectations are and they consistently have not delivered. Actually, I’ve been quite pleased with Scuturo, Lind an and Hill thus far, though both have definitely cooled off during the slump.
I forgot the second reason I believe the Jays are slumping but alluded to it earlier. I don’t think the bullpen is performing anywhere near where they were last year. Camp, Carlson and Ryan make me cringe. Surely the young arms down in AAA Las Vegas wouldn’t do any worse. Is it time the Jays should take stock of their young AAA arms at the MLB level?
Brendon
MW: I thought they might make some changes to the bullpen, but that’s not in the cards. Rios and Wells have certainly underdelivered, but I don’t think you can include Rolen in that group. He’s hitting .297/.374/.437 for the season, and .317 with RISP.
- BrendonMike,
Am I out of line when I wonder if David Ortiz was on steroids? Are the last 2 years just a coincidence?
MW: You’re not out of line to wonder, but then you’re not really out of line to wonder about anyone.
- JakeMW: I’d really like to see the tape of his whole run home in the first inning. I can’t believe he didn’t score, something must have happened. The wandering off second? Well, that’s inexcusable in a little league game.
He forgot to get a lead at 2nd base. He was imagining that he was being held on second base. I’m not even convinced that he was out at home, but that has nothing to do with his total lack of focus on the bases. It sure looks as if the Jays could have actually used that run.
MW: I don’t know how you have come to that conclusion. There was never a replay that showed Rios’ lead off second base.
- kit5 runs in the 8th, costing Doc his 9th win…that’s brutal.
I don’t have the stats in front of me, but I assume since B.J went down to the minors the bullpen hasn’t been the same. I take it they’re trying to figure out what their role is. BTW, what has happened to League? Cito lose confidence?
MW: B.J.’s leaving didn’t affect the bullpen negatively, because it got him out of there. League hasn’t been throwing enough strikes, but Cito is going to have to rely on him more now.
- BobbyOBP is worth more than slug%? that is simply not true.
this post is not addressed to you mike, but to everyone who doesn’t understand
obp includes walks and hits
slug also includes hits does it not?
the flaw with obp is it values a single the same as a home run, which they are not
slug values total bases so obviously it has a higher correlation with runs scored. the more total bases you have the more runs you will score.
the only flaw with slug is it doesnt include walks, but walks are a small portion of hitters production.
a perfect stat would be slug + walks, which ops attempts to do but it double counts hits.
it has also been proven by me and alan that slug has the highest correlation with winning so I’m not sure why anyone thinks otherwise.
MW: Well, I don’t know if it’s been PROVEN.
- pabloWilner,
I know you don’t like the in-game, knee-jerk reaction, but YOU HAVE GOT TO BE FREAKING KIDDING ME!!!
Okay, thanks for letting me get that off my chest.
MW: Fair enough
- BobbyMike,
Does Markakis have a hell or an arm or is right field in Baltimore closer than other stadiums? He throw a one hopped ball to the catcher from the warning track.
MW: Markakis has a really good arm.
- James from MississaugaThat one hurt.
- DilsonI know this is off topic but i need to get this off…
I cant stand fan balloting of the AS game anymore….get it outta here !!!!
Derek Jeter starting again ?
Griffey could start in this years game ?
Running down the list,it is an absolute joke and you cant tell me some of these players having terrific seasons dont feel slighted by being 10th in these popularity polls…
Jason Bartlett,Aaron Hill,Adam Jones,Ryan Zimmerman….
I wish MLB would do away with letting idiot fans stuff ballot boxes for yankees and red sox and other assorted bums from yesteryear who dont belong….
IM surprised Wade Boggs & Sandy Alomar Jr. are not leading the AL at there respective positions this year..utter joke !
MW: The all-star game is supposed to be a showcase for the fans, to have the people there who they want to see. The thing is, it’s worth something now, which is the real problem with continuing to allow fan balloting.
- MikeToday’s game, in a word, was BRUTAL! Please tell me Carlson is already in Sin City. The whole thing is just embarrasing.
MW: Of course he’s not.
- VavaHey Mike, did you get the feeling late in the game that someone didn’t want the Jays to have this one??? Damn that Great Gazoo and his Doomsday Machine!!!
Oh well it happens. It’ll get turned around. Hey maybe a sweep of the Red Sox will be the start.
On a truly sad note I just wanted to make a comment about the recent passing of Peter Zezel. I still have memories that I’ll always cherish of those Maple Leaf teams in ’93 and ’94 and Peter’s ability to win that key face off. I never had the opportunity to meet Peter in person but from everything I’ve read and heard he was an even better person off the ice. Peter you will be missed.
Any memories for you Mike??
Take care.
MW: I don’t remember Peter Zezel, which is too bad, because I’m sure I met him at least once or twice. It’s very, very sad.
- TroyNow that its all over, except for the crying, I’ve gotta say that if your still following this team your either a true fan, or a masochist.
I don’t usually play armchair manager, but why Carlson, and why leave him in that many batters without an out? Not that Downs fared much better. Then Ryan is on a short chain in a similar situation, and you go to the Wolfman whast about Carslon, in the last 2 weeks is and different tan Ryan. Why not Richmond, he had already warmed up earlier… was that a side session?
Really I’m frustrated with the team overall, and that’s my issue, but the longer that game went on, the less sense the moves made to me.
MW: You’re not alone.
- Greg Wit seems the bullpen have gone under the radar since they were pitching in blowouts and brief leads efforts. during this losing streak they surrenderd so many runs. They were horrible today wow. Anyway, I was surprised how cito managed the bullpen. down in bottom of 8th. ryan and wolfe in 11 and why not league hes far better than those 2. well lets say he faces right handers instead of wolfe. I blame this loss solely on such decisions but more importantly on struggling carlson and wolfe. Do you think the bullpens needs to be shaken up a bit. get accardo for example and get another reliever for camp and wolfe or for wolfe and carlson or carlson and camp?
MW: You can’t blame something SOLELY on one thing and more importantly on something else. What it comes down to is that Jesse Carlson didn’t get the job done and things snowballed after that. But you can’t blame it all on Jesse, either.
- nickOk Mike, there is no game tomorrow so we can’t lose.
I have to say i told you so even though you cut me off on the radio. Made some comments about my intelligence or lack there of. Need a refresher look under your blog titled ” Break Time”. I said they would go 5 and 15 in their next 20 well right now they are O and 9! Yes your baseball knowledge is 2nd to none around these parts, and yes I do mean this. However for the callers not to have the same opinion as yours is no reason to cut him off. Look I stated you could just see a moral drop on this team, and I ddi see this and obviously now it has reached an apex of no confidence after todays debacle. So you always say if the opinion is backed with facts you will have no problem seeing their point. Well at 0 and 9 this is not a prediction but a FACT. The other thing this losing streak has done, is in my opinion Halladay’s days as a Jay arenumbered, I don’t think he can handle more of this stuff happening, even for his sanity he might need to move on. Do you think he will go to JP and request a trade I really think he has had enough!
I am going to make another prediction, but I actually feel the Jays will beat the Sox 2 out of 3. Maybe even sweep.
Just when you expect them to lose, boom they will surprise.
Anyway I still see them losing 15 out of 20!
So next time I call I would appreciate a little more courtesy for my opinion, as I would give to you.
Signed loyal listener Steve in Vancouver!
MW: If they win two of three against the Sox, then they’ll have to lose seven of the ten games afterwards to go 5-15. I’m sorry, the fact that you turned out to be right (so far) doesn’t mean that your opinion of the 5-15 thing was any more of a knee-jerk overreaction than I thought it was at the time. They didn’t go 0-9 on the road trip because of a drop in morale, they did so because they couldn’t drive in runs.
- SteveSure thought that the Hill homer was going to reflect some kind of sea change for this team. Then BJ came in and I had this childish dream of him gunning down the O’s one, two, three. He got one out of the first two out….and then they brough in “the wolfe” Mind you..not winston wolfe, problem solver from pulp fiction…but brain wolf who huffed and puffed and blew the jays house down. sorry…thats all i can muster after this nine gamer.
- General ZodOy Gevelt! What a heartbreaker.
- BGhey mike i love your show as well as your blog its really good to listen to you after the games i just wanted to say that as far as this loosing streak takes us i still think its necessary to hold on tight b/c i still think their a great team and they will go far if not this season then give it a couple more seasons anyway take care and keep up the great show
- zalman cWell, that was the most painful loss in a while.
Looking for the positive though hopefully Cito doesn’t see Carlson as the set up guy anymore. I really think he was overworked. What’s your take on Carlson’s bad stretch while Accado is kept in the minors and League and Frasor aren’t given many meaningful innings?
If they’re ever going to call up Accado, this is it. Right? What more does he have to prove in Vegas?
Will the bullpen usage change after today?
MW: It’s not as though Accardo is lighting it up in Vegas, but one would think he should be here. This is definitely the right time to recall him, but they haven’t. My take on Carlson is that it’s a combination of a lot of work and the fact that he’s not as good as he pitched last year.
- JRE Post #37
Pablo falls into the same “generalization” trap as do so many others, with the statement that this year the Jays have “the exact same lineup”.
Simply NOT TRUE! — Aaron Hill is NOT Joe Inglett, Kevin Millar and Jose Bautista are NOT Mench & Wilkerson, Vernon Wells is healthy, NOT injured for 2 months, (at least so far), Rod Barajas is NOT sharing time with Zaun, Scott Rolen did NOT miss the first month with a broken finger…and so on.
This years’ offense is better because the entire lineup is stronger, and more settled.
Enough with this “same as last year” already!!!
- NormDon’t you just love the stat lady! I don’t understand much of what she writes but she adds a refreshing breeze to the blog.
- Bill FeeneyThe league has figured out Carlson
MW: Far too simplistic an analysis.
- dave