8:55 PM Eastern
And now the Jays have lost six straight and for the first time all season don’t even have a share of first place in the American League East, trailing the Red Sox by a half-game.
Clearly, there’s no reason to even pay attention to the remaining 115 games.
If you believe that it’s all over, I encourage you to read comment #62 on the previous post. General Zod found a way to pretty much crystallize my thoughts entirely.
Look, I understand the nature of fandom, the living and dying with every game, but I’m not going to spend the whole season talking people down from their lofty expectations or talking (likely those same) people off the ledge.
I’m glad there was only a short edition of The JaysTalk today, because I really didn’t want to deal with the gathering chorus.
Six losses in a row sucks. Getting swept back-to-back is brutal and it shouldn’t happen. But I can’t get over how easily some people thoroughly dismiss the entire first 25% of a season because of a really lousy week.
The first 41 games of the season didn’t tell the true story of the Blue Jays. I know some of you convinced yourselves that this was a 100-win team, or that it would be a relative cakewalk to the playoffs. I tried to tell you that wasn’t the case. The last six games haven’t told the true story of the Blue Jays, either. They’re not a 100-loss team that’s going to go to Baltimore, get swept by the Orioles, freefall into fourth place and not win a series again all season.
There’s a reason they play 162 games, and it’s because more often than not, the true nature of a team shows up at the end of it all.
I don’t even want to talk about today’s game at all, because the calls and comments lately have been so ridiculous. If I did, I would say that I can’t believe Shawn Camp would be Cito Gaston’s first option in a tie game in the 7th inning, Lyle Overbay botching that line drive turned the entire game, and it seems that Vernon Wells has decided that since he can’t drive in any runs, he might at well try to be a table-setter.
I’ve spent more time these past two days deleting comments from idiots than I have answering comments, and that’s how it’s going to go from here on out. If you’re going to be a knee-jerk moron, you’ll find that you’re wasting your cyber-breath commenting on this blog. If you want to be critical, you’re welcome to do so, but please have at least a discernable amount of intelligence behind it.
This is supposed to be a place for intelligent baseball conversation. It’s going to get there even if I have to stop replying to comments altogether.
Here’s this afternoon’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
I hope you got the chance to tune into The Blue Jays This Week tonight - Michael Barrett was a terrific interview. I had only planned on doing four or five minutes with him, but we just wound up going and going. If you didn’t hear it, you can find it in the Audio on Demand section of this very website. Tomorrow, the Jays are in Baltimore trying once again to snap the losing streak. Brian Tallet (why didn’t they break up the lefties?) against the O’s ace, Jeremy Guthrie. We’re on the air at 1:30 PM Eastern.
Rational, reasonable comments are required, if you want to see them on the site.
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Hi Mike,
- LizWhat a great interview with Mike Barrett. I got to talk to him in Florida and I was so impressed with him.I am sure having guys like him and Kevin Millar will help them.
Mike Barrett is a bucket of awesome.
Here is hoping the Jays turn things around tomorrow in Baltimore.
liz
Hey Mike love the blog and the fact that you comment on the comments, Especially since I can’t stand listening to Jays Talk after a loss. I don’t know how you stay so composed with some of the callers. I’m interested on what you thoughts about Matt Holliday ar, if the Jays would have any interest and what kind of package it would take to get him.
MW: Holliday has yet to prove that he’s not a Coors Field creation, though last I checked he was having a pretty good May. Given that he’s a free agent at season’s end and that he hasn’t really hit well outside Colorado, he wouldn’t be a big target for me.
- Chris ThompsonLet me preface this by saying I think Cito is a reasonably good manager. But it has taken this 6 game losing streak to conjure up memories why he frustrated me at times back in the 90’s. If I recall, Cito was always (and is still) known as a “Player’s Manager” - someone like a Joe Torre who was adept at managing a team full of talented stars. In the 90’s, Cito has White, Alomar, Carter, Molitor, Olerud, Henderson, Morris, Cone, etc. These guys could “play” without needing his prodding.
The present edition of the Jay’s have veterans such as Rolen, Wells and Halladay, but there are also a number or young players (i.e. every starter save Halladay, Lind, Snider, etc.). I see a difference in Cito these days in that he is trying to help the young players - just watch his interaction with Lind in the dugout - but his in game managing shows he is still stubborn and loathes change. He could get by with this style in ‘92 and ‘93 when everyone was playing great, but recall what happened his last few years as the Jay’s manager. It wasn’t pretty.
The offense is sputtering, so I don’t see why Cito doesn’t try and shake things up by tinkering with his batting order. Look at every other team in MLB and tell me that they have all had the same line-up night after night. Scoscia changes his line-up all the time, so why can’t Cito try something different? Yes, a 6 game losing streak is a small sample size, but this season is too important to continue with the status quo.
I’m not going to blast Wells and Rios because they are probably the most gifted position players on the team. What most people view as laziness or casualness by them is just clearer evidence of how effortless their play is. But I don’t think this should preclude Cito from thinking about moving Wells out of the clean-up spot when it seems obvious he does not feel comfortabe hitting in that position. In my view, the line-up should be as follows:
1. Scutaro (because of his lofty OPB)
2. Rios
3. Hill
4. Lind
5. Wells
6. Overbay
7. Rolen
8. Barajas
9. Bautista (Snider when he’s back)
No harm in trying that, or a variation thereof, for a few games.
MW: No harm, unless you’re Cito. I don’t think it’s because he’s stubborn, I think it’s because he honestly believes that his is the best way to do things. It’s what made him feel the most comfortable as a hitter and he believes that it’s what makes all his hitters feel the most comfortable. Your points about Wells and Rios are well-taken, I wish others would be able to see that. I have to say though - the improper apostrophes and lack of subject-verb agreement are contributing to the slow, agonizing breakage of my soul.
- bgHi Mike,
Can you help me understand the rationale for alternating the handedness (righty, lefty) of a team’s starting pitchers? The only thing I can think of is to just shake things up a bit for the opposing team, but I’m not even too clear on why that would help (or hinder) a whole lot.
MW: It’s nothing more than giving the opposition a different look day to day, not allowing them to settle into a comfort zone.
- StanI feel for ya Mike.
MW: I appreciate it.
- Kevin A.Hey Mike,
I was just curious if you’re at all concerned about Jesse Carlson?
I’m not reacting just to him getting shelled(although clearly that has something to do with it).
I’m more reacting to his lower K-rate this year(and VERY low K-rate this month, although surely him being shelled has somewhat skewed that), and the fact that he’s pitching deep into a fair number of counts, it’s actually a really interesting(albeit admittedly a small sample size so far this year for him) stat that is absolutely horrific.
Yahoo! situational stats has it listed that on a 0-0 count, so first pitch of the at bat, he has a 34.71 ERA.
Couple that kind of bizzare stat with the lack of a K-rate lately, and his getting lit up this last month, and is there a cause for concern?
MW: Only in that we’re not used to seeing relief pitchers go great year-crappy year here because the Jays’ bullpen has been so strong over the past few years. The thing is, most relievers that have an incredible out-of-nowhere season like Carlson did last year tend to backslide pretty hard the next year. The key is, if it’s happening, to recognize it and use the guy as he should be used.
- KevinHi Mike,
Well, the Red Sox has their losing streak as did the Yankees. In fact, every team has a losing streak during the long season. It’s going to happen. The Jays are still 1/2 game out of first as we approach June. I’ll take that. I do have one concern and this relates to the Saturday 4-3 loss. BJ Ryan came on in the 8th and surrenderd what turned out to be a costly homer to make it a 4-2 ballgame. The Jays ended up scoring in the top half to make it a one run game. Now, I know there is no guarantee that the Jays would have scored that run had the score been 3-2, but still. I am wondering if Cito should actually use Ryan in close games until he works out whatever issues he still has. I guess they can’t burn the other guys out, but I don’t know that he is ready to pitch in critical situations. I know he fanned 2 in that 8th, but do you think I am off base here? Its just a thought.
MW: I don’t think you’re completely off-base, but Ryan had fared very well in his first three appearances since coming off the D.L. - three innings, four baserunners, five strikeouts, no runs. Down a run I don’t think there was a reason to shy away from him. I’d rather have Ryan in that situation than Shawn Camp in a tie game in the 7th.
- Ian from WhitbyI think a lot of fans get mad, when maybe they should just be mildly disappointed. I don’t know how being angry at Wells or Rios for their performance could possibly help. Being mad about their reaction makes even less sense. Guy gets angry when he strikes out, people say he’s too emotional and doesn’t focus, guy looks wistful and thoughtful after a strikeout, suddenly, he doesn’t care. We win 4 in a row and we might be playoff bound, we lose 6 and there’s about 15 roster changes that should be made every five minutes.
Its all nonsense.
I do have a tip for everybody who can’t stand watching this team…. ROOT FOR SOMEBODY ELSE! There’s 29 other teams. One of them wins the world series every year. Don’t let the fact that its a different team all the time hold you back. Just buy a lot of different hats and wear whichever team is in first place. Now you’ve got that wining feeling every night, and when your team loses, you can re-decorate your sports memorabilia shelf every week!
Does no one remember this was a ‘looking forward’ year?
MW: That’s a great idea. Just be a fan of whatever team is in first place by the widest margin that day. It’ll save a lot of heartache.
- Greg WMazel tov!
I believe we need good starters (Peavy) perhabs…
any deals happening any time soon? are we looking?
MW: I’m sure they’re looking, but not that hard and only for something very specific - a player who is under control beyond this season, inexpensive and won’t cost them too much.
- DidierHi Mike,
You made an interesting comment in yesterdays blog responses…something to the effect that you thought the Jays would be sellers this year. I’m not anti-Rios or Wells, but if the Jays were to try and trade them, what sort of interest and market value do you think they would generate?
MW: Those weren’t the guys I thought the Jays would be selling. Right now, they’re both at the low point of their value, so trying to deal them would be pretty counter-productive.
- Oz RobHey Mike. Been doing a little research on the enigma that is Vernon Wells. I have come to one of two conclusions. Pressure of his contract or steroids. Looking at his minor league stats, he was never a homerun hitter, just 1 every 39 at bats, in 2200 at bats. What really stood out for me is his playing weight in 2000 at 195 lbs, now at 235. Most players, especially centrefielders, stay in shape, so I’m guessing. and hoping, he’s in playing shape. By 2003 he was already at 235. The fact that now he seems nothing more than a singles hitter with potential to swipe a base,seems odd,especially given his age. Looking at his stats, Vernon should have been putting up huge numbers the last 3 years, since they are, according to any expert, the prime years. I hope it isn’t steroids, maybe it is the contract, or maybe an injury that he is trying to play through. But in the steroid era, I am surprised I haven’t at least heard rumours of this. His last 2 and a half years do not nearly justify the amount of money the jays paid to reward him for his first 5 years. P.S. Good job on the Grill Room about a week ago, you really had Gareth losing his cool.
MW: Yeah, that was fun. They haven’t asked me back yet, though. As for Vernon and steroids - Wells’ stats last year project to 30 homers if he’d been healthy the whole season, so that wouldn’t jibe with the notion that he’s become a singles hitter over the past three years.
- daveI must admit that the losses are starting to get me down but I don’t think you’ll need to talk me in off the ledge yet. Just curious what you see the Jays doing (i.e. the predictably unpredictable cito) to shake things up?
The flub by Overbay today hurt but that will happen occasionally when the ball is hit that hard. Too bad that a miss by one of the better Jay defenders will turn into fresh fuel for all the Overbay haters. On a completely unrelated note I was listening to the broadcast just the other day and they mentioned that Lind was a first-baseman in college. Any chance we see him play a little there in the next little bit prepping for the eventual replacement of Overbay?
MW: No, Lind won’t get any time at first unless both Overbay and Millar get hurt (or dealt). I don’t see Cito doing anything to shake things up except being patient and seeing the long view. How is he predictably unpredictable, though?
- DaveMike,
Do you think the 6 game losing streak will heat up the trade rumors inlvoving the Jays? Are you hearing of anyone who the Jays are looking at right now?
MW: Nope.
- Jeff G.I’m impressed with Wells he’s taking responsibilty knowing he’s the 4 hitter and is supposed to drive in runs and it’s not happening, but he’s still hustling out there and trying hard to be productive. I knew at some point regression toward the mean was bound to happen but the guys seriously need to work on their timing and spread it out a little, one at a time would have been nice. It’s killing my fantasy team, but at least I have Jason Bartlett to pick up the slack, I seriously can’t believe I said that but there you go. Anyway I’m With Zod, the whining is getting a little old, win 6 in a row it’s playoffs, loose 6 in a row the team is dead to you, seriously boys grow up.
- Smittywell you kinda mentioned it, but seriously, i think its time shawn camp/bj ryan projects end..the bullpen is down to two reliable arms..what do u think about bringing cecil up for the pen..or maybe accardo?..also, sitting your your 2nd best player, rolen, every 5 days doenst seem to be paying off
MW: It’s paying off in that Rolen is hitting well and the team is winning, but other than that, I guess you’re right. I think that if Camp is used properly, he’s an asset, and Ryan has been fine since coming back off the DL.
- jpGranted I do not know the quality of the comments that have been deleted but I just believe that it is unprofessional and classless of you to start calling people morons and idiots. For someone to be involved in the media for as long as you have, I just think that there are better ways to voice your frustration. Saying that you do not want to deal with the poor comments and calls anymore is just as bad as a player giving up because when he is in a slump. You of all people should know that it comes with the job (the media). If you can’t take the heat then maybe you are in the wrong business. Lastly, this is a baseball blog, not an academics forum. What did you honesty expect?
For what it is worth, I have lost a lot of respect for you.
MW: It’s really not worth that much, given that I don’t know you or anything. But also given your opinion as stated in that first sentence. It’s as though you believe that because I’m in the media I should have to put up with all manner of nonsense and idiocy. I don’t see why A leads to B. I mean, I have to be exposed to it as part of my job, for sure, but that doesn’t mean I have to put up with it. As I’ve said hundreds of times, I have no problem dealing with critical comments - it’s the irrational ones that stick in my craw. It may not be an academics forum, but I honestLy expected that people would be able to spell and use the English language properly. I don’t think that’s too much to expect. At least I didn’t.
- Joe N.Hey Mike–gee, why so condescending? I agree that some of the calls have been ridiculous, but does that really warrant insulting your listeners/readers? Clearly, you are a genius though, so maybe I shouldn’t question it.
Anyway, two things. First off, it appears from some of your posts that you take issue with Cito’s managing style and/or some of his in-game decisions. Maybe Gibby should come back. My question to you is though, how many rings do you have? Right.
More importantly: what do you make of Rich Griffin’s analysis of the Jays’ playoff chances? Not sure whether you saw it, but in his blog he estimated that if the Jays win 26 of Doc’s estimated 34 starts, the other four guys would have to go 70-58 to get to 96 wins, no doubt a tall order. Not writing the Jays off here, but it is going to be a very steep climb if they want to grab a playoff spot.
MW: I don’t understand why you would insult me, twice, then ask me to answer a question.
- John from Victoria, BCGive ‘em hell, Mike.
MW: I’m doing my best. Thankfully, there are far more good callers and commenters than otherwise. I have to keep reminding myself of that.
- Brandenhey mike,
2 quick questions. Why is Millar the first choice to pinch hit over Bautista. Millar hasn’t even been making contact lately? And secondly, interleague play is unfair. It is unfair to the American league teams who are unused to the National League style of play. Not only do the NL starters hit regularly, the teams are constructed differently, and the NL managers are used to coaching a completely different style. Can this be addressed? This past weekend, Cito was outmanaged during the games, or so it seemed. (of course, the players didn’t exactly help) As for this season, I don’t think it is too early to say that unless the Jays get a sweep in Baltimroe, they’ll be chasing the rest of the year.
Thanks, Mike.
MW: Because they’re a half-game back? Millar is the first choice to pinch-hit over Bautista because he’s a veteran. I don’t know that interleague play is, at its base, unfair. I think that the AL team gain an advantage in their home games by more often than not have a player who is far better suited to DH.
- Stephen BurnsI swear that all the people who panic call into your show. I can’t even find 3 people in Toronto who would enjoy going to a baseball game for the baseball, let alone 3 who would invest enough time into following the Jays to care.
It’s hard for me to get upset about anything related to this team when I enjoy one of the best kept secrets in Toronto. I guess if I had Leafs tickets it would be different but I just find baseball a much more intelligent game.
Your coverage of the Jays is the best in the business Mike, so keep it up and I’ll keep enjoying this great team (unfortunately without any of my friends even realizing we have a summer couterpart to the Leafs).
MW: You have to fight the good fight - get your friends interested!
- ScottMike,
I thought I was being ridiculous today as I watched Camp throw his warm up pitches to open the 7th and wondered why Cito didn’t trust Frasor. All I could come up with was that he was “short.” That he doesn’t “fit the mold” of a guy you want in the game when it’s close.
But after Camp loads the bases Frasor does get the ground ball to get out of the inning and…well you know. He’s likely to be buried deeper in the back of the pen now.
I don’t get it. His numbers have always been respectable.
But…Camp is ahead of him?? Really? Camp? Isn’t he the mop up guy? Camp? Bah!
Isn’t Cito the “Confidence Guru?” How confident could Frasor be when Camp is ahead of him even though his ERA is (was) under 1 and he’s added a new pitch in the off season?
Guess short guys finish last…or something like that.
MW: Cito isn’t the same with pitchers as he is with hitters, in playing his confidence game. But you’re right about Frasor. As I’ve said, those are the only reasons I can think of as to why he’s not trusted more. He’s short and he’s quiet.
- JSigh…
I don’t give up and I can’t say I didn’t expect a bad stretch at some point. But it still hurts.
I was at the second game of the Boston series sitting in the 2nd row of the bleacher seats and the heckling was interminable. (It didn’t help that I was wearing my old Alomar jersey and one of the guys I went with had an over-sized foam hat from ‘94.) Varitek’s second dinger was the nail in our coffin. I fully expected some ribbing from the Beantowners but the situation made things far worse than I expected.
If take two from the O’s and take at least one (please oh please) from the BoSox they’ll finish May with a 15-14 record. Hardly a disaster and there’s always a chance they could do better.
MW: A good chance. The thing I get the least about this losing streak is that fact that so many believe there’s no end in sight.
- KewlDood24Two moves that I would consider if I was the Jays. 1) DFAing Shawn Camp and bringing up Accardo. Camp has always been terrible and is terrible and that is all we can expect from him. He is the weakest link in the bullpen right now and he has a terrible track record even though he was ok last year. Accardo should make the bullpen a little stronger as a semi reliable late inning reliever. 2) Demoting Scott Richmond to the bullpen or AAA and replacing him with Brett Cecil. I just think he cannot handle left handed hitters and any team that has 5 or 6 left handed hitters in the lineup will do great against him. His success has been very fluky up to this point and teams will beat him up when they see him again and again. Cecil is their most talented pitching prospect and has a better chance against teams with good lineups. Lastly, when Litsch comes back he will replace Tallet.
- aviI read General Zod comment on the other blog and i agree with him totally. I don’t think its fair to assess a team on a particular stretch of games.
People a lot times comment on the need for the jays to acquire a pitcher but i think the jays offense needs more attention than the pitching.
I would really like to see a slugger added to the jays lineup but i don’t know if that will happen. By a slugger, i mean someone who can hit 35+ HR and gets better pitches for the players infront of him. too bad those players don’t grow on trees.
MW: They certainly don’t.
- VJeyIf B.J. Ryan keeps struggling do you think the team will consider releasing him or would they consider sending him back to AAA if necessary?
MW: Ryan is not struggling.
- Uncle BenBesides the god of the groundball Mr.Halladay, how many of the Jays’ SP would you say are groundball pitchers?
MW: I guess I could just look up everybody’s GB/FB ratios, but instead I’ll say that Janssen gets groundballs (if I remember correctly), Richmond doesn’t, Tallet kinda does, but doesn’t really, and I haven’t seen enough of Romero.
- Uncle BenCito decision making on Sunday flashbacks to his last tenure as head honcho. The Shawn Camp move made no sense. Putting in Camp (why isn’t Accardo up instead) in a late-inning tie, with League, Frasor and Wolfe available makes no sense. Yes, Frasor got hammered but if Overbay catches Chippers’ liner, which he should have… it should have been an error… the Jays’ are out of the inning.
- Kelly PfeifferAnd Cito has to split up the four consecutive right-handed bats at the top of the line-up. It is too easy for opposing managers to exploit, especially late in games. Lind and Overbay should be batting two and four in the lineup.
Hey Mike…I can only imagine how many are in panic mode over the Jays. The bottom line is this team is set to contend for several seasons—but as I have been saying since day 1 I do not believe this is the year (I’m the trade Doc guy). The Orioles bit the bullet last year and I want to ask you a hypothetical question - Adam Jones for Doc straight up - do you do that?
My thinking on Doc is also that he has been a team guy his entire career and I think he’ll want out when the Jays cannot field a decent pitching staff around him the next few years, I still think they are a cut or two above the O’s this year (4th place) - and it’s time to pull in a haul for Doc. I am not talking about the O’s you’ll see this week–I’m talking about the O’s who will have a ton of new faces come July (Tillman, Arietta, Wietters, D. Hernandez, Patton - they are stacked with pitching from last years trades). At what time would your thoughts change on a trade? 7 games out in August or thereabouts? Just curious…thanks Mike!
MW: My thoughts on trading Halladay won’t change at all this season. No, I wouldn’t do Halladay for Jones straight up. And what is it about guys like Marcum, McGowan, Cecil, Janssen, Romero, Castro, Rzepczynski, et al that leads you to believe that the Jays won’t be able to field a decent pitching staff around Halladay in the years to come.
- garyWelcome back Mike, it wasn’t the same without you.
Another tough series, hopefully they’ll bounce back in Baltimore. The 6-0 could have easily been a 3-3. An interesting note to the Chicken Little’s out there - the ‘92 team lost 5 straight in May and the ‘93 team lost 6 straight in September.
I can’t help but to think of the ‘85 ALCS whenever I see Bobby Cox - I was recounting Sundberg’s wind blown triple to right field (Barfield, legendary RF arm, threw over the top - just sayin’) to my son a couple of weeks ago as my most vivid memory (sadly) of the old park. Maybe tied with Bell dropping to his knees in left a week and a half prior.
I’m a big Jays fan and as much as I hate to see them lose 6 straight, I don’t mind and here’s why: it brings the team back to earth. Not the players specifically, but the team. I’d like to see them win 85 games this year. 85, for me, would be the perfect barometer. I’ve seen many a professional organization fall into the trap where a team overachieves for a short amount of time and falsely convinces the head office that they’re only a player or two away from a playoff run. A trade deadline later, and they’ve sacrificed the future for a couple of players that have been added to a group that really wasn’t ready to compete for the big prize. I’d like to think that JP never loses sight of the team as it honestly stacks up, even when the team is winning twice as many as it’s losing, but it’s got to be difficult not to become too enthusiastic when you’re seeing your hard work start to pay off earlier than you thought it would.
I was a big JP critic early on and will never let him live the Frank Thomas deal down, but I have to give credit where it’s due - he seems to understand the economics of the league and understands that the Jays’ success is going to be largely homegrown. It sounds obvious, but there are a lot of small to medium market teams out there that handcuff themselves trying to keep up with the Jones’.
MW: It’s a good point about teams getting ahead of themselves and caught up in unsustainable results. You’ll have to explain how signing Frank Thomas crippled the franchise, though.
- Terry BradleyThere’s a plaster shortage, Mike from all the broken ankles on people jumping off the bandwagon!
It is interesting to analyze the past six games. You are right that they could have just as easily been 3-3. Statistically in terms of runs created (RC) and runs allowed (RA), they actually outperformed Boston in the 1-5 loss in the Fenway finale, the opener in Boston was a virtual tie, and today’s game was much closer than the score would indicate, particularly if Overbay makes that grab. Add to that the virtual tie in Halladay’s start and a one-run loss yesterday, and it would be conceivable that they’d have a winning record on this road trip.
So why have they lost 6 in a row? The lack of (timely) hitting.
Hitting in general: As of May 10, the Jays had a 0.293 BA and 9 games with 15 or more hits. Since then, they’ve hit 0.255 and got more than 12 hits in only one game.
Fenway, Game #2 - When you pound out 14 hits and 19 total bases, a team should score a lot more that three runs. In fact, they should score 7, on average. But when you strand 21 base runners with a team LOB of 11, you’re not going to score runs.
Fenway, next night. They should have had 4 runs with their hitting, but left 22 on base with a team LOB of 12.
Today’s game: Again, they should have had 4 or possibly 5 runs, but stranded 11 with a total individual LOB of 25.
Some of the bats cooling off could be reversion to the mean, but it could also just be a general slump.
Yes, it’s a shame to see some good pitching performances wasted - Bill James Game Score reckons that there were three quality starts - but these slumps will happen.
I still think this is a 0.575-0.600 team, but even if they aren’t they’ll be entertaining.
MW: I have always thought .575-.600 was a big stretch, even when they were 27-14.
- Alan the stat geekDefintely, Overbay bats number two and Lind number four… against right-handed starters.
Against southpaws, Overbay and Lind have proven in the past if they face lefties consistently, they can hit them. Something Travis Snider never had a chance to prove.
MW: Overbay hasn’t proven that if he faces lefties consistently, he can hit them. He had one good year hitting lefties, that’s it.
- Kelly PfeifferMichael of the Ballyard:
On a lighter note, I’m happy to report that the Mississauga Twins are MUCH better than their 2-2 record, and I can state with absolute certainty that you won’t regret it if you ever have an off day line up and want to spend it watching even more baseball.
Today at Christie Pits, I spent about ten minutes trying to convince a guy that the fact the Wells and Rios don’t go ‘RAH RAH’ on the field doesn’t make them disinterested and irredeemable.
He also didn’t think that Snider should have been sent down, and when I asked him what the team gained from keeping him in the bigs, the best he could come up with was ‘uhh, well, you’d get to put him in the field…’
It was too bad, he actually seemed to know baseball quite well.
If I’m writing about the Twins for their website for free, do you think that I should be expected to pay for hotdogs at their games?
MW: No.
- Kevin DraperYou’ve got a great gig, but weeks like this must make you pull your hair out.
The Twins lost 6 in a row last week, but for some reason decided to keep playing baseball and won the next 4. I’m pretty sure the Jays can bounce back and do the same.
I’m a little confused as to why Camp is here instead of Accardo. Camp was originally supposed to be the long man in the pen, but with Wolfe able to go a couple innings at a time, it seems Camp is expendable. I’d much rather see Accardo. Hopefully a roster move is in order after another bad outing from Camp.
MW: They shouldn’t really even wait for another bad outing.
- BrettI can’t believe its 2am in the morning and I’m writing the first comment. Either this six game losing streak has made everyone lose interest in your blog, or you really are deleting those unintelligent comments. Hopefully I don’t add to it.
For someone like me who views Jays games as escapism, these losses really hurt. Just becuase I know they are a better team. I suppose I can see where all the haters are coming from…this city has gone without playoff baseball for 16 years, hasn’t really had anything to cheer about for longer than that, and we take great pride in our baseball team, in all our sports teams. Maybe its a reflection on us if they don’t play to their potential, so its easy for us to jump on them for not doing so. But then again we have to remember anything can happen.
Anything can happen in baseball. Today they go into Camden Yards and have to face Baltimore’s “ace” on the road, maybe they lose this game, maybe Romero has a poor outing and they lose tomorrow, maybe they go 2-8 in their next ten games. By the same token, maybe Overbay catches the line drive today, maybe Cito comes to his senses and takes Camp out after getting the first batter…anything can happen, its important to keep that in perspective.
MW: This city takes great pride in its baseball team when it’s winning. When it’s losing, the city takes great pride in talking about how terrible it is.
- RyanCecil was sent down too early, … people forget 2010 is the year the jays are supposed to win it this year was supposed to be a “mulligan” year after mcgowan and marcum went down aj opted out. That is why the biggest splash the jays made in the offseason was signing millar. Next year with Halladay, Mcgowan, Marcum, and then cecil, romero, litsch, tallet, janssen and whoever else steps up before then can battle for the final two spots. the money that I belive was going to be used for FA pitcher in 2010 could then be used to snag a big bat for one year as many players contracts end at the end of the 2010 season, I like the overbay, millar platoon and even with Linds below average defence you can hide him in left easily, and sign a DH for one year or maybe snider will be ready. Overall this great start and emergance of the young kids has only made the 2010 team have even more potential than originally thought keep playing the kids thats the goal for this season prior to the fast start why give up on it now? trust JPs drafting other than halladay and mcgowan all of those pitchers are result of JPs draft or JP trade he knows his college pitching prospects well trust em let them play
- RyanDo you think Cito ever juggles the order all season? I really don’t like Rios in the 3-hole. I like him as a player but don’t like him in that spot he seems more like a 2 hitter, but then where do you put Hill right? Sure his numbers look like a #3 right now but I don’t think he’s gonna whack 35-40 HR either. I don’t know, I’m at a loss to explain the bats going so cold, I guess it’s just the nature of the 162 game beast, you’re going to have cold snaps. I think maybe I would tweak the lineup thusly:
Scutaro
Hill
Wells
Lind
Rios
Rolen
Overbay/Millar
Barajas/Chavez
Whoever
PS I hate interleague play.
MW: I don’t see Rios as a two-hitter at all. Not even a little. And no, I don’t think Cito changes the line-up.
- Sean in Lethbridgethis was a late post and those are typos not spelling errors please do not correct my grammer you know what I am trying to say thanks mike!!!
MW: I’ll give you “becuase” and “belive” as typos, but not “emergance”, “Linds” and “jps”.
- RyanHey Mike, can you honestly believe that Frank Catalanotto is still a free agent? I know he lacks power and range but the guy does well with runners on base and he gets base hits and walks with consistancy! With Snider getting some seasoning in Vegas I would love to see the Jays sign Cat to a one year deal with maybe an option for a 2nd as a fill in type guy! It’s another small risk big reward type deal that couldn’t hurt the Jays.
MW: Catalanotto signed a minor-league deal with the Brewers two or three weeks ago, and was called up today. He’d have been perfect to help the Jays get through the time Snider is down in AAA, though.
- Matt from BCHey Mike,
I recall after the all-star break of a Carlos Tosca managed season that the Jays started HAL!aday on 4 days rest. With the uncertainty in starting pitching and the fact that Cito does not like to “baby” his pitchers, do you see this scenario playing out again?
Also, in your opinion, who is the best baseball writer in North America?
MW: Halladay always starts on four days’ rest. He did pitch three times on short rest in his Cy Young season of 2003 under Tosca. I don’t see it happening again before September, and then only if the Jays are in the thick of things.
- NitinHey, Mike! It’s a long season and this team is too good to not bounce back with some more solid baseball. If it all plays out the best it can….we’ll be fightin for a berth in the playoffs come September. I’ve seen a lot of bb in my day and this team has all the components to be a contender. Let the chips fall where they
may. Go Jays!!!
- Karl R. ThomsonHi Mike,
I just wanted to clear up a comment about bunting that you make repeatedly. I see you and many other posters repeating it, saying that a team should never bunt.
I follow baseball stats and for the longest time, I too had been lead to believe that a team should “never bunt”. Until I actually read and understood the argument.
Bill James never said that a team should “never bunt”. He argued that over the long run, a team will score more runs by not using a sacrifice bunt. This doesn’t account for the marginal value of an extra run in close ball games.
In a tie game, bottom of the ninth, leadoff hitter hits a double. You absolutely should
bunt. Though your odds of a 5 run big inning are reduced, your odds of scoring that so-valuable 1 run are increased.
Best way I can explain it is with an age old math problem. Suppose the boss said that if you showed up for work late one more time you would be fired. You leave your home at 8:30 work starts at 9:00.
If you take the subway, you know it will take an exact 30 minutes. If you take the car, you believe there is a 50% chance that the roads will be clear and this will take 10 minutes and a 50% chance that it will be busy and it will take 40 minutes. The average is 25 minutes but though it is lower than taking the subway the fact that 40 minutes gets you fired means taking the car is an unacceptable option.
The same concept applies with the bunt and yes BIll James would agree.
MW: So would I. I have never said that a team should never bunt. I have said that only on very rare occasions is a bunt in order, which is the same thing that you just said. Thanks for the comment, though.
- AdamJHello Mike
I can’t imagine the type of e-mail you received in the last three games.
In my line of work, there is a popular saying - it is not a sprint folks, it is a marathon. We are at mile five now, and the contenders are just within steps now as opposed having them 20 yards behind.
Interesing fact about overbay. I was checking his stats. In his best year as a jay, his OBP was .372. This year, his OBP is .374
Mike, why don’t they bring up Accardo. Camp makes me very nervous out there..
Francis
MW: I don’t know.
- francis xHi Mike
I have not heard anything about Shaun Marcum in a few weeks. Do you know
his status?
Thanks
MW: There’s been no change. He’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and might be able to pitch in late August, though I think that’s ambitious.
- davidHey, Mike:
Go back and re-read your last paragraph before the “intro to Jays Talk” — do you really believe the conversation(s) will become more intelligent if you stop replying?
I don’t — please don’t!!!
(But if you have to delete some of the comments, I’m fine with that, although frankly I rather enjoy seeing the daily examples of ridiculosity).
MW: I don’t. There wouldn’t be any conversation (here on the blog) if I stopped replying, but it might come to that.
- NormHey Mike,
With regards to Vernon’s perceived lack of “clutch” ability, I’ve come up with a theory. I don’t believe for a minute that players can decide to get hits “when it counts”, but I think there’s another causal factor in play.
He certainly looked pretty clutch yesterday when he singled and stole two bases in a row to set himself for scoring the tying run. But there was nobody on base at the time, and that brings me to my idea: maybe Wells just has trouble hitting when guys are pitching out of the stretch.
With nobody on, he’s hitting .287/.323/.468, but with men on base, he’s hitting .227/.303/.340. To me, this would NOT indicate that he’s not trying hard enough, but rather that he’s simply had trouble with his timing when guys are pitching out of the stretch.
Just out of curiosity, I decided to check similar splits for a guy who IS considered “clutch”. Marco Scutaro is .211/.353/.368 when pitchers pitch out of the full wind-up, and .381/.468/.540 when they’re pitching out of the stretch, indicating that his timing is simply better when pitchers throw that way. I’d look more up but I’m on my way out the door to work at the moment.
Anyways, any thoughts on the theory? I think it makes a lot of sense as a way of sort of explaining why some guys have reputations as “clutch” hitters. Also of note is that Wells over his career has been much better hitting out of the stretch than he has this year - meaning it’s been an anomaly so far and he should come out of it pretty soon, so people can calm down already.
MW: Yes, they should. We agree, and Wells has even said that he’s having timing issues when pitchers throw out of the stretch. But as you say, it’s not something that has happened to him previously in his career, so it’s really not something about which to be worried.
- TyI am not worried about the recent slide. Although we can get caught up in tracking the placing of the team in the standings on a daily basis, tt doesn’t matter what order the wins and losses come in when they are outside of the division. What matters is the total at the end of the year.
In that light, the losses to the Red Sox were important, lets see what the season series stands at by the end of the home series coming up.
MW: It matters in what order the wins and losses come when they’re within the division?
- J.RI don’t want to pile on here, but you know you’re in trouble when your 4th spot hitter and franchise positon player says pitchers throwing from the stretch mess up his timing!
I also wish the Jays management had put Snider, a gritty and potentially outstanding player, in a position to succeed; for instance, in the 3rd spot playing everyday and moving Rios to ninth. Although I like Cito’s patience and convention, it would be nice to see him make moves to challenge his players beyond his outright allegiance to veterans and guys who have performed before but may not be performing within the context of a given game or stretch of games. That said, I think a sweep of Baltimore is not out of the question.
MW: No, it’s not, but they certainly haven’t risen to the challenge in the early going.
- Will, OshawaFace facts here. The Blue Jays surprised teams. They had career .250 hitters batting 350. They had raw rookies pitching and hitting like veterans. Everything they did turned to gold. Now the fuse has fizzled. There’s no more sneaking up on teams.
Baltimore will want revenge for the sweep last week. They’ll be ready and waiting for the Blue Jays. As will the rest of the league. If the over achievers fall back to normal, losing 25 out of next 30 wouldn’t surprise me.
MW: Even the worst of the worst teams only VERY VERY rarely lose 25 out of 30 games.
- Rick GraceHey Mike,
You think the Jays should keep the dome closed against wakefield this upcoming friday so his knuckleball is flat and more hittable (less helped by an open air stadium). Honestly i rather boil in the closed dome then watch Wakefield do well again.
MW: I’m sure the roof will be closed.
- paoloHey Mike,
Lousy week is right, but you know what, six losses in a row and we’re ONLY a half game out of first in the East, and I think we still hold the wild card although I’m not positive on that. At the start of the season this was a team that noone expected anything from, and we’ve had glimpses of what we can expect. We have above average players at every outfield position, DH and second base that will be with the team for years to come. A terrific veteran thrid baseman who has been mister consistent, both with the bat and the glove this year. We’ve been able to watch many of the talented young arms we have who will be hitting their stride over the next few seasons. Despite the recent struggles there are still so many positives you can take from this team, and I thank you for trying to be a voice of reason in an unreasonable sports town. We may not make the playoffs but let’s enjoy this incredible season the doc has put together thus far and cheer him on to a hopeful second Cy Young, and all the young talent we have. Go Jays!!!
On a completely unrelated note, do you know if that play Overbay didn’t make was changed to an error? Or did it stand as a base hit?
Thanks Mike
MW: I haven’t heard any change. The ball was a rocket, and not a play a fielder makes with normal effort.
- Matthew in BurlingtonWhen Halliday doesn’t win, it is difficult for the lack of experienced arm to pick up the slack. Let’s hope to see Rios and Wells go on a tear.
MW: HallAday
- JimSix in a row! Now, that plenty of “fans” have jumped off the bandwagon, here are some interesting won-lost stats from the 1993 Jays.
Apr 19-21,lost 3 in a row!
May 8-12, lost 4 in a row!
May 26-28, lost 3 in a row!
June 9-12, lost 4 in a row!
June 30-Jul 5, lost 5 in a row
Jul 7-11. lost 5 in a row!
(note in the above stretch the 93 Jays had 1 win from June 30 - July 11 with a W-L record of 1-10)
Aug 26-28, lost 3 in a row!
Sep 3-9, lost 6 in a row!
Yikes - the Jays lost 6 in a row in September of 93! Better to lose 6 in a row in May rather than September, wouldn’t ya say!
Take note people, this team in 1993 still managed to win 95 regular season games. Then go on to win the World Setries.
Not to say this team will do either of the above. I’m just hoping here to further support what our host keeps on saying - “it’s a long season and even the best of em go on losing streaks”.
Maybe some of you will now lose the negative attitudes and comments and just apply a little common sense.
I don’t normally go out seek stats etc. to prove a point. However, some of the comments here (not all) are becoming a drag to read. I just hope the above stats will save a life or two of some who think the sky is falling!
Keep up the good work Mike. Appreciated.
- Bob from BurlingtonMW: The first 41 games of the season didn’t tell the true story of the Blue Jays. I know some of you convinced yourselves that this was a 100-win team, or that it would be a relative cakewalk to the playoffs. I tried to tell you that wasn’t the case. The last six games haven’t told the true story of the Blue Jays, either. They’re not a 100-loss team that’s going to go to Baltimore, get swept by the Orioles, freefall into fourth place and not win a series again all season.
On 680 you were reported as saying that this team ‘wasn’t going to win the World Series’. How far do you consider they will go? And do you think that, hot start or not, they should rebuild at trade for next year? If so, who would you trade?
MW: I’m not sure how far they’ll go. I said at the beginning of the season that I expected them to win 82-85 games and finish third in the division. It depends on where they are at the deadline, but if they’re not in the race, then they should see if they can get something for guys like Barajas, Scutaro and Rolen and maybe dangle one of the useful pitchers for whom they won’t have a spot.
- reyesI haven’t heard it mentioned yet, but I just wanted to remind everyone of what happened last year.
The Rays went into the All-Star break with a 7-game losing streak. They had won 7 straight before then. The losing streak caused the Rays to fall to 2nd place in the AL East, but by only half a game behind the Boston Red Sox. Even though the Rays lost the division lead, they still led the Wild Card spot by 2½ games.
That’s all for now.
- ChrisCongrats Mike you scared off all your readers/listeners, or is it that the Blue Jay feel-good caravan has come to close for another year? Over a hundred comments the last few days, and after yesterdays blog not one…how is this possible?
MW: Ummmm, it’s because I never post the comments until during the next day’s game.
- Conrad WeisserMike, because this is the internet, people feel more anonymous to write whatever they want as there is no way to screen.
It was very frustrating to watch the Jays this last week after doing so well. A great test will be the Boston series this weekend at home.
The team still has a ton of bright spots: lots of terrific pitching and some great run production.
At the same time, RISP has sufferred greatly in the last week. Is it because the confidence has gone, because of the scouting on hitters, or a bit of both?
I am very disappointed in Vernon Wells’ play, especially in hitting with runners on base. I think he had a great AB yesterday when he took the walk and didn’t have the confidence to hit in the runs. But I am also not happy with Vernon’s defence in center field. Do you think Cito’s looking at making Wells a DH, putting Bautista in RF and Rios in Centre? What does it take for a player to break out of a funk?
MW: There’s not a chance that Cito is thinking about making Wells a DH and all that. The reason that the team isn’t hitting with RISP, I hate to say it, is because the team isn’t hitting with RISP. It just happens sometimes. It doesn’t have to be about conifdence or effort or scouting or things like that.
- TimI admit that I do get frustrated with Mr. Wells at times but I have been very impressed with the fact that he is not ducking the issue and has stated that, yes, he is having some difficulty at driving in runs at the moment. The tone of his statements show me he cares deeply for this team and I think that we should show him support. I was equally impressed with the fact that he stole two bases and that he is utilyzing another of his strengths to make something happen. I’m very pleased that we have a player of his talent and dedication on our team.
- Michael DickAs for the six losses, it happens so let’s not get too low or too high when we reel off six victories.
This is an exciting team and I am enjoying the season very much.
Hi Mike,
We know that the Jays seem to no longer be in the market for the elite players that become available. They probably haven’t really been in that market since `97/`98 when they signed Clemens (an elite starting pitcher) and Randy Myers (an elite closer, at the time). With Clemens, the Jays even outbid the Yankees for his services – imagine that.
Prior to even those signings though, the Jays were never shy about acquiring elite players to put them over the top. Many fans remember the Jays adding future Hall of Famers such as Winfield, Molitor and Henderson, but the Jays also brought in other elite players like Jack Morris and David Cone (even twice for him – `92 stretch drive and prior to the `95 season) when they believed they had a shot a division title.
Mike, what has changed in the Toronto baseball market since those times that no longer makes this an option for the Jays? I don’t get it and as a fan it’s really frustrating for me. It gives me a complete feeling of hopelessness when Boston and NY acquire these kinds of players and the Jays stand by and do nothing. Even the recent teams in `06 and `08 were most likely just one or two elite players away from really contending, but yet the Jays did nothing to address any needs and those seasons became wasted.
Now, this season, it seems that the Jays have constructed a team that has a good solid player at every position on the diamond but no great players – just good or solid players. These types of complimentary players tend to be quite a bit more inconsistent than the elite players, and we are really seeing that inconsistency now. Rios and Wells are exceedingly exposed in the 3-4 spots of the lineup and it seems that Cito and the Jays’ brass are trying to turn these guys into something that they’re just not. The elite players are better and more consistent than the complimentary players and the Jays’ brass knows this, so why have they become unwilling or unable to acquire those kinds of players?
MW: They have. When they signed A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan four years ago they were the most sought-after pitchers on the market. They traded for Troy Glaus, an elite-level hitter, and signed Frank Thomas, a Hall of Famer coming off a season in which he finished 4th in MVP voting.
- JamieM-Dub,
I promised not to be negative this year. As a result, I havent been around the blog, or tuned in on the radio lately.
I might have to go back and listen to the calls though, because by the sounds of it they were pretty funny.
Stay cool dude!
- slobberfaceI just went on the Vegas site to check out stats. What are the thoughts on Brett Harper? Never even heard the guys name but he’s a 1B with 10 HR’s and hitting over .300. Is he hindered by the fact he is 28? Who are the Jays top flight prospects that we have yet to see in a Jays uniform?
MW: Harper’s age is certainly a knock against him, so is his lack of glove. But it appears as though he can hit. Guys like him, and Randy Ruiz, often get labelled as AAAA players, and rarely get a break in the big leagues.
- Aaron KerNot sure if this is rational or reasonable, but for me at least it’s entertaining. I was driving home from Ottawa with my 7 year-old and listening to the game. We were into it, cheering the Jays and excited when they tied it up 2-2 after manufacturing a couple of runs. Then, when the wheels came off, this is what I hear from the back seat: “That’s it! I’m OFF the bandwagon!!!”
Hmmmmm… Here’s hoping the Jays turn it around soon. For both their sake and for the sanity of my little guy!
MW: Nice! I hope your little guy hops back on soon.
- VavaWho would have thought that at the end of May we’d be calling for Cito’s head?
Who would have thought that if the season ended today the Jays would still be in the playoffs?
Who would have thought that as of today the Jays pitching and hitting would still be near the top of the Majors?
I’m looking forward to baseball this summer and fall because the pitching is improving (and it’s already very good!) and the hitting should improve under Cito and his staff.
Let’s PLAY ball!
Question - What irks you more Mike - The fans who were planning parade routes at the beginning of this month or the fans that are calling for Cito’s and JP’s head at the end of this month?
Happy Monday!!
MW: Actually, I have yet to hear anybody calling for Cito’s head.
- karim kanjiI think if we as fans can just acknowledge that Rios and Wells are complimentary type players (and not elite type players) then their demonstrated inconsistency month-to-month and season-to-season makes perfect sense and should therefore be expected. On just this road trip/losing streak alone, I think it would be fair to say that the poor performances of Rios and Wells in the one-run losses were the difference between a 3-3 record (which for this road trip is acceptable and would have been great actually) and the dubious reality face-smack of 0-6.
On the trip so far the Rios/Wells tandem has had to face Wakefield (trick pitcher), Lester (elite pitcher last year), Lowe (very good sinkerball pitcher for years now) and Jurrjens (very good pitcher on the rise) and some hard throwing relief pitchers late. There is just no way it can be reasonably expected that Rios and Wells should hit those guys on a consistent basis. They’re just not the kind of hitters that will consistently hit good pitching.
The Jays brass is at fault for this because building a team around guys like that promotes the inconsistency, as eventually the Jays will run into a streak of above average pitching and their key hitters will just be completely shutdown. Even the great teams can be shutdown by a streak of facing very good pitching, but with the Jays this effect is more exaggerated because their key hitters just aren’t in that elite class.
MW: You make a good point, but there’s a leap in there that I think might be too large. The Jays did just fine in April with no significant contribution from Rios, and were doing very well in May with no contribution whatsoever from Wells. It’s possible for this team to win when the two of them are just being OK, or even less so. The thing is, they were supposed to heat up when everybody else cooled down, and they haven’t. You’re right, neither has developed into an elite-level hitter.
- JamieWilner,
What’s going on here? I took a trip to the Windy City last week and when I come back the Jays have lost every game. I figure it out, I am the good luck charm this team needs to continue it’s winning ways, so no need to worry as I am back (sarcasm here).
Just wanted to let you and your loyal readers know that I couldn’t get anything on the Jays while in Chicago. The most I could see on ESPN was the score of the game. The only clips I saw was against the Boston game in which Big Papi hit his first home run, and the only clip was of Big Papi and then Francona’s press conference. So if anyone thinks the Jays are getting any national attention down below, it’s just not happening.
I read a few of the blogs when I got back from the jist of it, the conclusion I can draw is that the first quarter of the season is a fluke and Wells and Rios are the worse two players ever created, does that about summarize it?
I did want to share one quick story. I went to a Chisox and Twins game at Cellular Field (unfortunately the Cubbies were out of town). It’s a great stadium, but the biggest difference I saw compared to the Rogers Centre, is the number of vendors selling food and drinks up and down each aisle. It looked like 3-4 vendors walking up and down each aisle at all times.
As for the game, it was a rout with the Twins beating the Sox 20-1. Apparently it was the worse home loss in a hundred years. I was glad to be a part of it :-)
It was also on the same day when Jake Peavy was supposedly traded to the White Sox. I heard Peter Gammons on ESPN on the morning of the trade who stated that the deal had been ‘done’ and Peavy agreed to the terms. When I got back in the evening I heard Peavy rejected the trade, and it made me think about all of the Leaf ‘reporters’ in this city who never seem to get anything right either.
MW: Welcome home!
- BobbyHi Mike,
I haven’t seen or heard reference to Jason Lane, who had a pretty good spring with the Jays. I’m wondering why he wasn’t called up instead of Joe Inglett. If you’re already addressed this, I apologize.
MW: Jason Lane really isn’t that good a hitter, or at least he hasn’t been in the bigs in three or four years, and he hasn’t hit well in AAA. Regardless, the Jays were always likelier to bring up a left-handed bat.
- CliffHi Mike,
Like you I don’t run around thinking World Series when the Jay’s were 27-14 not to I think they are heading for the basement now they are 27-20.
They are still 7 games above .500 and only a 1/2 game out. If you had told me they would be 1/2 game out of first place and number 1 in the Wild Card Race I would be elated.
Do you think it is time to consider trading either Vernon Wells or Alex Rios? I don’t mean for Starting pitching but for another power hitting outfielder with some strong defensive skills. Maybe a even swap just change up the culture a bit. It’s very hard to watch Rios and Wells in the 3 and 4 spots continue to struggle.
Lets hope we sweep Baltimore and see if we can get a few more butts into the Rogers Centre to see a first place team.
Doug
MW: See above.
- Doug HendersonHey Mike,
I so enjoy listening to you before and after every Jays’ game. You say you want intelligent baseball conversation? You’re going a long way toward making that happen.
I’m one of those fans who lives and dies with every game, which is why I find it hard to believe that I’m not completely distraught today. A six-game slide is no fun, after all. But check this out: We’re on a six-game slide and we’re only half a game out. After the last several years (and that’s being kind, really), I’ll take those standings any day! It’s a long season - no six-game stretch is going to make or break it. Besides, I’m having way too much fun watching all the good stuff that’s going on (along with the frustrating stuff) to throw myself off the bandwagon just yet!
MW: Glad to hear it!
- LindaMike,
I read a blog today in the Globe which advicated moving VW and Rios because they have been struggling during this losing streak. I am sure this minor compared to the kinds of thing that you have posted on this site but I expect more from the Globe.
There were two things that upset me. 1) There was no suggestion as to how Cito should shuffle his line-up, and 2) The author gave a free pass to Lind who is 3 for his last 27 with no RBIs while leaving 18 on base.
So….would one just flip flop the number 3,4,5 hitters with the 6,7,8 hitter?
MW: I read it, too, seemed kind of more a throw-away little item to me.
- JWFor your sake I’ll avoid any mention of those 3-4 hitters (although it’s hard to resist the urge to bicker and whine). But I want to give some credit to Cito during these rough times… as much as everyone is sticking it to him when things are down, they’ll be equally sticking up for him when things pick up again – and they will. He’s staying with proven hitters, which is what he needs to do in my humble opinion. And I like his cool approach of never panicking while under fire – and since we get more stubborn as we get older I think the new Cito is better than the old Cito. So finally, I just want to tell Cito not to fold and to stay the course, there’s a lot of baseball left, and enough room for some of our key players to get it together.
- TriplePlayMike, the whole Camp vs Frasor thing really got to me too. IF Frasor is available (as he obviously turned out to be)why on earth would you go with Camp first? Cito, as you have said, really, really doesnt trust this guy, even though he had done nothing to belie his trust yet this year. What is more amazing is not that he doesn’t trust Frasor though, its that he TRUSTS CAMP MORE. Dont get it. If Cito was hoping to get by with Camp for the 7th and then bring in Frasor for the 8th, I think that strategy is flawed. For one thing, you have Scott “shut em” Downs wasting away on the bench. He has not pitched in SIX games. Downs could have pitched in at least two games during this stretch where the games were tied but of course since he is now “the closer” he is only allowed to pitch when the team is ahead by 3 runs or less in the ninth inning (or at least that’s what the title “closer” renders a pitcher capable of). Yet we had high leverage situations on Friday and yesterday when your best relief pitcher,and second best pitcher overall, was available yet never got off the bench. This is a big problem, when your best players don’t play. (4 innings in the last 16 days mind you).
Secondly, for all those that were giving Cito way too much credit during the hot streak, are these same people going to ask “hey, why arent these guys responding to Cito’s motivation anymore?” or even more ridiculously “have the players lost confidence in their fearless lead?” To be consistent, if you gave him all the credit initially, he deserves some of the blame now…of course this is all ridicularity. It reminds me of the political realm when they would always say “its the economy stupid”….folks its the PLAYERS STUPID.
MW: Why yes, it is. Strange that we haven’t heard from any of the people who were blasting me for “not giving Cito the credit” a couple of weeks ago.
- General ZodMike, was Richmond hurt or something? I thought it was way too early to pull him after less than 80 pitches. I didn’t understand that at all.
MW: It’s because they were in a tie game with two runners on and Richmond due to hit.
- KenMike,
I feel for you. Listening to the ridiculousness of some of the ‘Jays fans’ on this board and on your show is worse than finger nails scraping a chalk board.
Reminds me of a quote by Leo Durocher (1906-1991):
“Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand.”
- ChrisI hope Jays attempt to steal more bases today with Zaun behind the plate.
- Steve RMike, as I was watching TBS this weekend I heard the announcers say that Scott Rolen was well on his way to a hall of fame carrear before injuries caught up to him, funny, a caller to jays talk last week stated the same thing and you made him sound like an idiot for saying that, I find that you are condescending to your callers alot, I can tell you just because you are on the radio does not mean you know more about the game than your callers, just like when we would call and state the fact that BJ Ryan should not be the closer and you “Guaranteed” that when he got called back up he would be the closer until he proved that he could not do the job anymore, yet another thing you were wrong about.
MW: These are my favourites. I love it when people rip me for things I didn’t say. You were listening to Jeff Blair last Monday after the game against the White Sox. After The JaysTalk. I have said many times in the past that I believe Rolen was very much on the way to Cooperstown before all the shoulder problems. I anxiously await your apology.
- stevenI see B.J’s sucking wind again, do you think this is the last we see him in Blue Jays uniform?
MW: Of course not.
- BobbyDon’t get me wrong, i love the jays and i love the players, but B.J isn’t ready to be back in the majors, why did we rush him, we should have given Accardo a look. When people say Camp is the weak link in this bullpen, i can steadfastly disagree, Ryan is.
MW: This was Ryan’s first poor outing since he’s been back.
- paoloHi Mike,
While it is no longer is the penthouse the Jays are still in a pretty good spot and way better off than almost everybody predicted (Bobcat excepted). While Vernon is not getting the job done as a clean-up hitter right now historically I believe his numbers show that he will eventually get it done. It has been suggested by some that they move him down in the order. I find that idea misguided with his track record. If it’s decided that he move somewhere else in the order I’d move him up to the second spot until things get ironed out for him. I don’t think a few extra at bats will hurt him or the team.
What would you do, leave him or move him?
MW: I would move him, he shouldn’t be hitting in the top four spots in the batting order. I wouldn’t agree, either, that his track record shows that he should be hitting second or fourth.
- Mike BMike,
I don’t think Cito should be going to any left-handers out of the bullpen unless their name is Scott Downs….they have been brutal as of late!!
MW: And yet, Downs is nowhere to be seen.
- BernardHi Mike,
Further to my last post and considering the results from today’s game in Baltimore, I must again say that I am very uncomfortable with BJ Ryan in close games. To be honest and I’m not trying to be silly, he isn’t much of an upgrade over Shawn Camp based on his recent outings. I agree that Camp should never ever be used in a tie game, but neither should BJ. Yes, he pitched decently in the first few outings upon his return, but I think he has regressed again. The Jays were down just 2-1 and he came on and imploded for 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks. Unacceptable. I know it seems overly critical and believe me, I am not trying to be a jerk, but I truly believe Ryan is nowhere near being able to pitch in these tight games. I watch him pitch and he has nothing. A flat straight fastball and nary a slider. I knwo its probably to early, but I fear that he may be toast, Mike. I honestly believe that. I see no end in sight. However, to contradict myself, perhaps Cito feels it is still very early and using him now in these situations may go a long way in getting Ryan back to where he was before in time for the second half. Sorry for the critical post, Mike, but I guess I had to get it off my chest.
MW: It’s OK, but remember that his first four outings were completely fine, with the exception of the one hanger that Kelly Johnson hit out on Saturday night. Try not to fall into the “no end in sight” trap.
- Ian from WhitbyAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH! As I’m listening here at work my boss thinks I’m frustrated because of my workload! Little does he know…
- Vavawith this 7 game strech being exactly a superimposable image of first half of last year. I dont believe that the blue jays’ offence is that bad. But I neither believe they’re even close to the first 40 games. So where will this offence take us?
MW: Chances are, they’re about the same team I thought they were at the beginning of the season - 82-85 wins. But I think they have a chance to be better than that.
- nickHi Mike,
I agree with you that the acquisitions of Glaus and Ryan prior to the `06 season, and Frank Thomas prior to the `07 season, would meet my criteria for elite level player. However, Burnett for me was more of unrealized potential type of guy, rather than an elite guy.
I think perhaps what I was more oriented on was the lack of in-season acquisitions in `06 and `08. Looking back, those teams may have only been one elite player away from contending but the Jays’ brass was either unwilling or unable to acquire that kind of player in-season.
MW: I’m going with likely unwilling - unwilling to pay the cost asked for, because teams would come at them looking for their top prospects. In retrospect, they should have bit on one of the suitors for McGowan, at least. Everybody wanted him.
- JamieUpdated Pythagorean 2009 AL East Final Standings Projected ending May 24th (i.e., after game 6 of the losing streak) :
Toronto 94-68
Tampa Bay 93-69
Boston 92-70
New York 81-81
The Jays have obviously fallen back to the pack fast with this losing streak. Tampa Bay is still “unlucky” and New York “lucky” with their continued walk-off wins that just can’t continue.
MW: I’m stunned that the Yankees have been so lucky.
- JamieHey Mike,
Don’t you get a chance to screen out the calls whom your producer deems uninteresting. I hate listening to these uninteresting complainers, can they just stop calling. They have 27 wins, i expect it to end up somewhere around 8-10 (YANKEES), 8-10(RED SOX), 13-5 (Orioles), 12-6 (Rays). Thus 40 more wins making them 64-46, after all the AL EAST TEAMS are played. Thus they will only require 31 more wins in the remaining 52 games (in which i see them sweeping the Nationals, maybe Marlins, Mariners, Twins or Tigers at least once).
Cheers Mike, mark my words closer to playoffs then mediocrity.
MW: It’s not 40 more wins, by your formula, it’s only 37. They already have three against the Orioles and one against the Yankees. That would mean they’d have to go 34-18 the rest of the way, and that’s a pretty tall order.
- paoloGeneral Zod is a genius!
anyways, mike, i think a game or two ago, the jays put on the shift vs a left handed batter. after two pitches of clearly showin bunt, the defence kept their position nd nvr moved. the hitter easily bunted for a base hit (the bunt was crap as well) why did da jays not shift or prevent tht play frm happning?
sry 4 da spelling and …….
in a rush
thxx
MW: Why would being in a rush cause you to not be able to spell? Brian McCann was the hitter, and they were obviously willing to give him the bunt single if he wanted it (and was able to get it down - remember, he tried and failed against Janssen).
- TheSunkenZealotMW: I’m glad there was only a short edition of The JaysTalk today, because I really didn’t want to deal with the gathering chorus….
I don’t even want to talk about today’s game at all, because the calls and comments lately have been so ridiculous.
Guess what Mike? It’s not about YOU. It’s about the audience. That’s who you’re on the air for. To let them voice their opinion, to let people debate and sometimes even vent. Even if you disagree. Even if you’ve heard it before.
So listen up, let people have their say, and stop telling us what you don’t want to hear. Thank you.
MW: Nope. I don’t see it that way.
- JohnBluejays
2009- 7 +
2008 – 7
2007 – 9
2006 – 7
Red Sox
2009 – 3
2008 – 5
2007 – 4
2006 – 6
Yankees
2009 – 5
2008 – 4
2007 – 7
2006 – 4
This is the forth year in a row that the Blue Jays have had a losing streak of seven games. Conversely, the Yankees and Red Sox have one between them. Granted, baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, but it appears that championship teams are able to avoid the long losing streaks. I am sure there are exceptions – there always are – but are long losing streaks indicative of lesser abilities? Or is it a non-issue?
MW: It’s a non-issue. The Red Sox and Yankees have been two of the best (if not the two best) teams in baseball over the past four years, so you’re really cherry-picking. The Rays went to the World Series last year and had a seven-game losing streak, the Phillies won the World Series and had a six-game losing streak. Look at a comment above about the ‘93 Jays and their losing streaks.
- BoutlierLets talk about Vernons track record since you Vernon apologists dont seem to be able to read….
He’s had 1 amazing season (2003)
1-2 good seasons
4-5 good to mediocre seasons
He’s had 1 good year in his last 5….FIVE !
This rhetoric about history shows us with Vernon is an exaggerated talking point at best….
Need more than .411 slugging from your clean up spot…
“but but but he had 2 singles today”
MW: And you didn’t even mention his horrible year in 2007. In two of the last three seasons, Wells has had OPS+s of 129 and 121, so your statement that he’s had one good year in the last five is completely untrue. Here’s how I see it - he’s been a full-timer since 2002, so seven full seasons. In those years, he’s been great for two (’03, ‘06), very good for one (’08), good for two (’04, ‘05), OK for one (’02) and awful for one (’07). No question a team needs more than a .411 SLG from the clean-up spot, but what about Wells’ career .477 SLG indicates that he won’t be better?
- Mike7 in a row is disappointing but it isn’t the end of the season. The Jays have been playing good exciting ball. With the exception of a couple of blowouts they have been in every game with a chance to win. At the start of the season, the Jays weren’t even supposed to be where they are now. We have seen some good games and we have seen some excellent prospects. We are seeing the future, and the future looks great. Cecil, Ray, Lind and Snider give the Jays a lot of hope. It would be nice to see the Jays continue to compete this year. But if not this year, then in the years to come.
- Mike MComment # 34
MW: This city takes great pride in its baseball team when it’s winning. When it’s losing, the city takes great pride in talking about how terrible it is.
Nahhh. Only the callers on your show and comment-posters on this blog. The rest of the ‘regular, rational, and reasonable ones’ are sitting at home because they have nothing to talk about. Only the ones who complain, actually have something to complain about which is why, a lot more “bad” comments and calls happen than good ones. Wouldn’t you agree with that basic philsophy?
MW: Yeah. I just would like to hear from the other ones more often.
- TheSunkenZealotSo I guess the parade has
- lobobeen cancelled, huh ?
If B.J. Ryan keeps struggling do you think the team will consider releasing him or would they consider sending him back to AAA if necessary?
MW: Ryan is not struggling.
What? Even if you answered this before today’s game…what?
MW: I did answer it before today, and today he was brutal. Prior to today, in four appearances since coming off the DL, he had allowed one run on four hits in four innings, with one walk and six strikeouts. I’m not sure what you define as struggling, but I’m sure that ain’t it.
- BrendanSorry Mike, B.J. is done as a reliable late-inning reliever. Ryan should have spent more time in the minors. He basically is throwing the same he was before his injury. Four and 2/3 innings pitched with six hits and 3 runs given up. And his control and speed are not any better than before. Why hasn’t Riccardi called up Accardo or Fabio Castro for Camp and Ryan? Or is Cito running the show now!
MW: They’re getting terrific innings out of Castro as a starter, and I’m assuming they want to keep him going that way. Ryan may have come up a little quickly, but again, he has had three great outings, one OK outing and one awful outing since coming back.
- Kelly PfeifferMike, who in the Blue Jay PR/marketing world came up with the idea of the RED hats?
Frankly, with the red hats and the black shirts, the Jays look more like red-headed woodpeckers than Blue Jays!
Hey, maybe that accounts for all the holes in their bats, recently.
MW: It had nothing to do with the Jays - did you not notice that every team in the majors was wearing red caps yesterday?
- NormMW: Yes, they should. We agree, and Wells has even said that he’s having timing issues when pitchers throw out of the stretch. But as you say, it’s not something that has happened to him previously in his career, so it’s really not something about which to be worried.
———–
Wouldn’t it make sense for opposing pitchers to throw out of the stretch against VW all the time?
MW: Yep.
- Alan the stat geekYou think the Jays should keep the dome closed against wakefield this upcoming friday so his knuckleball is flat and more hittable (less helped by an open air stadium). Honestly i rather boil in the closed dome then watch Wakefield do well again.
MW: I’m sure the roof will be closed.
———–
Do the Jays have the discretion to leave the roof closed if there are no mechanical or weather-related reasons to do so?
MW: Yep.
- Alan the stat geekI wanna applaude you today, Mike. You are probably the only guy in toronto sports media who doesn’t overreacts. I was thinking about this when I was listening to the PTS this evening. Some of those guys change their mind about the best player in hockey every week, it was Ovechkin, then Malkin and now Crosby. Hockey people exaggerate things a lot in this market. On the other hand, you are cool and clear-headed 24/7. You call spade a spade and cover your sport better than anybody. I wish I could go on and on but time is my enemy here as I’ve to watch the Lakers-Nuggets game. Great job!
MW: Thanks.
- BeburgMW: It’s possible for this team to win when the two of them are just being OK, or even less so.
I’d disagree with that. Scutaro and Hill have done a wonderful job of getting on base, but in general and with few exceptions, if they score, they score because Lind and Rolen are hitting behind Rios and Wells and are good 2-strike/2-out hitters. Neither Rios or Wells are good when they have 2 strikes on them. Rios is good at hitting into double plays, and Well’s percentages take a dramatic dive when there are risp. If the team can’t rely on their premier power positions to deliver, they are doomed once more to finish third. And I’ve posted about this before. Third is killing us. Third gets us no high draft picks and is not enough of an incentive to completely rebuild the team. I would suggest that our perennial third-place finishes have been the main reason why we’ve never progressed to the post-season since 1993. We’re just good enough to compete but we aren’t good enough to win.
MW: With two strikes this year: Lind - .269/.345/.510 (wow); Rolen - .324/.378/.500 (even wower); Wells - .193/.270/.298; Rios - .198/.271/.337. You’re bang-on with your assessment of those four as two-strike hitters. But that’s why they score runs?
- isabella reyesUpdated Pythagorean 2009 AL East Final Standings Projected ending May 24th (i.e., after game 6 of the losing streak) :
Toronto 94-68
Tampa Bay 93-69
Boston 92-70
New York 81-81
The Jays have obviously fallen back to the pack fast with this losing streak. Tampa Bay is still “unlucky” and New York “lucky” with their continued walk-off wins that just can’t continue.
MW: I’m stunned that the Yankees have been so lucky.
———–
The Pythagorean expectation based on actual runs scored gets skewed by blowouts. Early in the season, the Yankees were on the losing end of a few blowouts, just as the Jays were on the winning end of blowouts. These will skew the XWL, such that the Yankees are a 500 team and the Jays a 580 team.
MW: And below, you will adjust for that!
- Alan the stat geekMW: Those weren’t the guys I thought the Jays would be selling (Rios & Wells). Right now, they’re both at the low point of their value, so trying to deal them would be pretty counter-productive.
I might agree with you with respect to Rios, but I would trade Wells at this point in his career to anyone who would take his contract. I’m not reacting to his slow start, just his contract. Wells contract will likely become a real albatross in the very near future.
Historically players have peaked around 25-27 years of age, plateaued 27-30 and then declined precipitously in their 30’s. I think the steroid era twisted that reality for a while. It would expect to see Wells plummet fairly quickly at this point.
Take for example Blue Jay players of the past like Moseby, Barfield, Bell, and Upshaw. All those players were similar in that they were very good hitters in their prime 25-29 - all were merely part time players by 31 and out of baseball completely by 32-34.
MW: Things have changed, and not just because of steroids. It’s very unusual now for a good player to be done by 35.
- Jim MaronTo correct the Pythagorean Expectation for blowouts, we cap the runs for and against in any game at 9. When this is done, the revised XWL for the AL East are:
TOR 90-72
BOS 90-72
NYY 89-71
TBR 88-74
BAL 68-94
If those numbers mean anything, I’m booking off September!
MW: But what about the 11-7 games, or the 10-9 games? Those aren’t blowouts. And 8-1 is a blowout.
- Alan the stat geekBTW, the predictions for the other divisions are:
AL-Central:
DET 95-67
KCR 80-82
MIN 77-85
CLE 73-89
CHW 69-93
AL-West
TEX 92-70
LAA 87-75
OAK 74-88
SEA 66-96
So the Wild Card would be a 90-game winner from the East.
MW: Well, if teams always played to their xW-L, which they very obviously don’t.
- Alan the stat geekjust wanted to say mike, that I predicted this offensive decline. If you recall I said that this offense was a mirage and when lind and hill cooled off the offense would disappear because rios and wells were giving you nothing. who else was going to pick up the slack? bautista? millar? barajas? give me a break.
MW: Congratulations.
- pabloHey Mike!
Long time listener, first time blogger. First off, I think you do a very admirable job dealing with the callers during Jays Talk since there are a lot of comments made that I would handle differently. However there is one item that I have to disagree with. It’s your positive attitude! Don’t get me wrong, being positive is a good thing, but the bottom line is that the Jays have lost 7 in a row, are showing the pip squeak offense they did at the beginning of last year and the pitching staff thought still solid, is showing some signs of falling apart.
That is the reality and I think sometimes you just ignore the facts and try to sugar coat things. As far as the team is concerned, I didn’t expect them to do anything this year. All I wanted is the young kids such as Lind, Snider and Romero to develop and for Hill to play a major role in the offense and pretty much everything has been working as I have foreseen. So, not a bash against you Mike, since you do have a tough job and being negative would most likely lead to a nervous breakdown, but the Jays stink right now and there’s no hiding that..
MW: Nor am I trying to hide it. This perception confuses me, and I don’t think that will ever change. I’m not “positive”, I’m a realist. The Jays are playing terribly right now, and there is no sugar-coating it. But I’m not sugar-coating it. What I’m saying is that the fact that they’re playing terribly right now doesn’t mean they’re awful and that they’re never going to win again, or that they’re going to lose 100 games. Just as when they were playing well, I was saying that they weren’t this good and they weren’t going to win 100 games. Because they’re not. How is that having a positive attitude?
- apclrQuick question…. is it possible that on the plane ride to Boston, a Jays team from a different space-time continuum was substituted for our hot hitting team? And maybe an electrical storm or other event on the way back from Baltimore will switch them back? Just like in that original Star Trek episode? I need an answer Mike, there’s a lot of money riding on this.
MW: Could be.
- Greg WBarajas, Hill, Scutaro, Lind,Rolen, have been great this year, the dead spot in the offense is 3 and 4. I know we are stuck with Wells, and I still think he will turn it around. But how is Rios still a Jay, he has done nothing since signing his extension. If the Jays keep this guy move to the bottom of the order, he is not a number 3 hitter. This kid needs a wake up call.
MW: He has done nothing since signing his new contract except be the Jays’ best hitter last year and have a crappy Aoril this year. I notice Lind gets a free pass from you for this losing streak.
- jason c wwhen you put your highest slug playrs batting 2, 5, 7 then put your worst slug batting 3 and 4, then thats a recipee for disasther. and what is with this stupid logick that changing the batting order will break their confidence? If i’m alek rios and you put me leadoff where I’ve had success then wouldnt that boost my confidense? derek jeter used to bat second now he bats leadoff so did that destroy his confidence?
MW: You’re just trying to mess with me, aren’t you?
- magpieMW: Only in that we’re not used to seeing relief pitchers go great year-crappy year here because the Jays’ bullpen has been so strong over the past few years. The thing is, most relievers that have an incredible out-of-nowhere season like Carlson did last year tend to backslide pretty hard the next year. The key is, if it’s happening, to recognize it and use the guy as he should be used.
Just curious if you’ve seen at all an actual hierarchy in the Jays ‘pen this year, or is this also “not Cito’s style”?
I was only 10 last time he was here, so I can’t really recall the style he managed this team with, but I know that’s everyone’s reasoning behind his lackluster managing in-game.
Most teams, you have a ‘depth’ chart of sorts, you know whose the 8th inning guy, 7th inning guy, closer, etc etc, and in a “perfect” game it’d be starter, 7th inning guy, setup man, closer.
This team doesn’t appear to have that. I mean, it seems fairly clear that it SHOULD be Scotty Downs closing, Jason Frasor as a setup man, and then maybe Brandon League as a 7th inning option. But oh-so rarely we see different people coming in in the high leverage situations in the 8th inning. It’s kind of frustrating when anyone watching the team can see Jason Frasor SHOULD be in that role, but for whatever reason, they keep bringing in guys like Jesse Carlson, and even Shawn Camp(I know it was 7th inning with Camp) and others in these spots.
I don’t understand why when Scott Downs moved from the setup man role to the closer role, everyone just ignored the setup man role Scott Downs SPARKLED in for a long while, and never assigned anyone formally to that role. Most great bullpens have that guy…
MW: It seems as though Cito really wants Carlson to be that guy, and he’s giving him every chance to do it.
- KevinHi, Mike:
I am a bit confused! I’m looking at an article on BlueJays.com concerning the lack of Jay Home Run power recently. The article says “the Jays have gone 53 innings without a home run…six games”. I heard the same report on the radio yesterday.
It is accompanied by a picture of Kevin Millar hitting a homerun off Wakefield “in the top of the fifth” in Boston.
By my math, 6 games on the road would each be nine innings (no extra inning games, I believe), for a total of 54 — add on innings 6 through 9 in the Wakefield game, and you have a total of 58 homerless innings.
Is there something I’m missing, or is simple arithmetic going out of fashion along with proper English?
MW: Millar did hit the last Jays’ home run, which has been followed by six games (54 innings), so the Jays have gone 58 innings without a homer. Just a math error from Jeff Seidel, who I’m assuming is Spencer Fordin’s intern in Baltimore. Jordan Bastian didn’t make the trip.
- NormHello Mike
I was just looking some of the so called ‘better hitting clubs’ statistics and compare their stats with that of the jays.
Even in average, Jays are still better than Boston though if Toronto keeps this pace up, they will eventually end up at the bottom.
When you compare OBP, there really isn’t much difference between the elite clubs and the Jays.
The difference is in the OPS.
The Yankees, Boston and Tampa have better OPS than the Jays.
My guess is - these probably do better in hitting than the jays with men in scoring position.
Even if you look at the box score at the end of the game.
In the Bosox and Atlanta games, there were almost identical # of hits between the teams. Yesterday, there were 9 hits a piece for each team and yet, it is the Jays that ends up at the short end of the stick.
I just think that the Yankees, Bosox and the Rays do a better job with hitting when they have people on base than the Jays, especially in the last 7 games.
Hitting with people in scoring position is what brought the Jays atop of the AL East and they just stopped doing it in the last games. You can’t win many games when you score less than two runs a game
Francis
MW: Every team in the majors is hitting better with runners in scoring position than the Jays are right now.
- francis xThat’s the best you can do,to edit my contribution? Sometimes a short comment like mine makes a lot more sens than some drivel a lot of people send in.Sure HallAday does deserve to have his name spelled properly Mik.
MW: Yeah, and that’s why all I did with your comment was correct your spelling of Halladay. But if you’re going to be a jerk about it, forget it.
- JimHow’s Wells new personal trainer working out for him this season?
MW: Evidently, Wells dropped him once the season started, which makes sense.
- CamI think we as Jays fans forget that it takes a good bullpen to win games..Brian Tallet and Scott Downs are in roles they didn’t have last season..B.J Ryan and injuries have caused this..Not to say the bullpen has been wretched this season but it hasn’t been nearly as good as last year..League,Ryan and Camp have been inconsistent at best..
We all can see the bats have gone south but the Phillies lost 10 of 12 in June and still won the World Series..It happens but if it continues and the Jays fall out of the race in the AL East, it would be a daunting task to get back in it..They need to finish the road trip on a good note..
MW: Well, they don’t NEED to, but it would be nice.
- ray bThe Vernon Wells contract may end up just like the Delgado contract..How many players will this contract cost the Jays?..In 2011 Wells starts making 20+mil a season for 4 years..If the Jays sign Halladay were looking at 40+mil a year for 2 players..On a team with a payroll under 100 million it could prove to be deadly..
No matter what Delgado did he was scrutinized because of the money..This is already starting to happen with Wells and will continue to happen unless he hits .300+ every season with at least 30-40HR..He deserves the criticisms he is getting right now..Lets hope he gets better and shuts us up..
MW: He definitely deserves criticism right now, he’s been terrible for almost an entire month. But if Halladay gets a big deal, they won’t be able to leave the payroll under 100 million.
- ray bmichael,
i’m having the damnest time trying to assess this al east pennant race right now in may.
what are some of the keys (do you think) in determining who’s looking like the eventual winner & wild card hopeful other than seeing who’s near the top of the standings in august and september of course ?
MW: I would think that’s about it. I don’t know why everyone wants to know what’s going to happen before it happens. There’s no way to accurately predict things.
- darrell bishopMW: Things have changed, and not just because of steroids. It’s very unusual now for a good player to be done by 35.
To continue on another tangent of that discussion. I would certainly like to see Wells shifted to right and Rios to Center. Rios is clearly a superior defensive player at this point and should man the more important defensive position. What are you thoughts on that?
MW: It’s not going to happen. You’re right, though, Rios has emerged as the better defender. Hopefully in a year or two’s time, it’ll be Wells-Rios-Snider left to right. But I doubt it.
- Jim MaronActually, the Blue Jays had spent two days out of first place prior to this week. After a 6-1 loss to the Tigers after game #2 on April 7, they were one half game behind the Orioles. After an 11 inning 3-2 loss to the Twins on April 14 they also found themselves one half game behind. The Jays have spent 44 days in first place in 2009. In the seven previous seasons combined (2002-2008) they spent only 29 days in first place.
On the subject of leading wire to wire, the only clubs to do so in the last 40 years are the 1984 Tigers and 1990 Reds. By wire to wire, I mean led thier division every day of the season and never trailed in any of their playoff series. The 2001 Mariners were in first place every day of the season, but lost to the Yankees 4-2 in the ALCS. The 1998 Yankees started 0-3 and 1-4 and never assumed first place until April 30th. The 1986 Mets took over first place after game #11 on April 14.
You’re right about the Rays of 2008. That bullpen did pitch way over its collective head. I watched last nights meltdown against the Indians and it was ugly. When you’re ahead 10-2 and only four outs left to go, you should never lose, but the Rays did. Jason Isringhausen was just awful. The Rays brought him in with two outs in the ninth inning after Ryan Garkos three run home run had made it 10-8. Isringhausen walked the bases loaded, then walked Grady Sizemore to make it 10-9, before Victo Martinez hit the game winner. It’s important the Indians win because GM Mark Shapiro has made no bones about the fire sale they will have if they fall out of the race. Boston covets Victor Martinez and they are very open about it. The Yankees are very interested in Cliff Lee and Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood would be moved as well. Although the Tribe could retain all but DeRosa through the end of next year, the fact is, the Tribe is 13th in the AL in attendance right now (only the A’s are worse) and they are having trouble selling tickets for this weekends series with the Yankees. Unloading the four players mentioned would save around $40 million. Battling Boston and New York will be hard enough without them adding all star calibre players for the stretch run.
- Jim in OhioWhy do people in Toronto say Aaaron Hill is better or has been better than Orlando Hudson ?
Statistically it just isnt true…going by the numbers clearly there respective best seasons were about even although you could make a case if you use OPS/SLG/OBP as the determining factor that O-Dog was better…..I mean the years that they were both playing and getting AB’s the numbers done lie O-Dog has been at least as good offensively but i would say better in his best seasons…not to mention he is better defensively as well…Even Hill’s great start this year,outside of HR’s O-Dogs numbers are on par with Hill and i would argue better in categories a 2B should be better at.
I never understood that blatant homerism…..
MW: What I don’t understand is how the lion’s share of your comments are offensive, insulting, and often obscene, but then you throw one of these in.
- MikeMike,
Perhaps I am fault for not listening to your post game show as much as I should, but the common theme I got from last year and this year so far was that you tend to focus on the positives more than the negatives and that is my point. The pitching staff was simply amazing last year and deserved the accolades that’s a fact, but the team is showing all the trends it did last year, but with a less experienced pitching staff. I noticed that when it comes to talking about individual players and statistics you are realistic. For example all those Overbay, Rios and Wells haters that frequent your show. However, when it comes to the success of the team you seem to take a little bit more of a positive slant and not look at the worse case scenario.
MW: Why look at the worst-case scenario? It’s not like I look at the best-case scenario either, though. I just look at what’s going on. I understand that there’s a forest, and not to get caught up in each individual tree (or group of seven trees).
- apclrMW: But what about the 11-7 games, or the 10-9 games? Those aren’t blowouts. And 8-1 is a blowout.
You’re correct to call me out on this. I used the term blowout, when I should not have. I should have said was from the perspective of determining the XWL, more that 9 runs scored for either side simply skews the results. A 15-14 slugfest for the purposes of improving the XWL should be viewed as a 9-9 tie.
MW: You’re the stat geek, so I’ll trust you, but I don’t understand why.
- Alan the stat geekMike, re #94 (Red Hats)
Nope, I did not see any TV yesterday, and only saw the Blue Jay hats on a video clip on their website.
Sorry for my ignorance — I suppose the hats were in honor of Memorial Day?
MW: Ah, now that makes sense. Yes, they were in honour of Memorial Day.
- NormWhat kind of a guy is Pat Schmoody (sp?)? Love that name!
- CamMW: It’s not going to happen. You’re right, though, Rios has emerged as the better defender. Hopefully in a year or two’s time, it’ll be Wells-Rios-Snider left to right. But I doubt it.
So your you see Snider as a plus defender? Is that more your personal observation or an organizational one?
MW: Both. Snider has a great nose for the ball, a very good arm, and he runs well.
- Jim MaronMW: It’s not going to happen. You’re right, though, Rios has emerged as the better defender. Hopefully in a year or two’s time, it’ll be Wells-Rios-Snider left to right. But I doubt it.
So you see Snider as a plus defender? Is that more your personal observation or an organizational one?
- Jim MaronWow…comment #107 was BRUTAL…my 9 month old can spell better than that..ok..not really but you get the point…nice to see a 6 spot on the board today, and a couple of hits with RISP! Yeah 8 in a row looks ugly, but we still have a LONG way to go before we need to panic…although my stomach has been a little tight the last few nights watching this.
- Kevin