UPDATE – 2:45 PM Eastern
So it turns out that Travis Snider’s not the only one making the trip to Vegas. Conveniently forgetting that “four or five” poor starts were supposed to have been required for the kids in the rotation to lose their spots, the Jays have sent Brett Cecil and Bobberty Ray down to AAA as well, and have recalled Casey Janssen and Ricky Romero, in addition to Joe Inglett.
Well, Romero’s not in Atlanta, but he’ll be recalled in time to make the start Tuesday in Baltimore. Janssen is going to start tomorrow night in Atlanta, which will give the Jays the convenient opportunity to get his bat into the line-up. I can’t wait to see him hit!
Janssen killed it in both spring training and in his five rehab appearances in Dunedin and New Hampshire, while Romero killed it in the big leagues before straining a ribcage muscle sneezing, and struggled in his rehab, allowing 25 baserunners in 14 1/3 innings over three starts.
So, the new Jays rotation appears to be Roy Halladay, Janssen, Brian Tallet, Scott Richmond and Romero. Jesse Litsch is due back in about three weeks.
These moves, by the way, mean that the Jays can no longer bring up a pitcher (Janssen or Romero) to start Wednesday and push Halladay back to that Friday start against the Red Sox, as I had thought they might.
11:45 AM Eastern
Oh, well.
It wasn’t necessarily something one should have seen coming, but it was something by which we shouldn’t have been surprised. It’s not to say that the Blue Jays aren’t as good as the Red Sox (they probably aren’t), but it is to say that the Jays played over their heads for the first quarter of the season, and they went into Boston starting Brian Tallet, Brett Cecil and Bobberty Ray. Even the most optimistic couldn’t really believe that the Jays were likely to pull out more than one win.
But that’s OK.
The fact that the Jays are still in first place in the A.L. East is a pretty amazing thing, given that the Red Sox have already had an 11-game win streak and the Yankees are currently on a nine-game win streak – both huge outliers over a 162-game spread. Combine those two things with the fact that the Jays are now 1-5 against their two closest pursuers and you have a team that one would think would be a clear third in the division, if not worse, yet there they are continuing to sit pretty with the league’s best record.
For those of you who believe that the Jays are a legitimate playoff team (though I’d surmise there are far fewer of you than there were Monday, which is ridiculous), that’s a great thing. Sure it’d have been nice to win that home series against New York last week, but the difference between winning and losing that entire series was probably the Jays’ slowest baserunner being thrown out at home plate by about a millisecond. It would also have been nice to take a game or two at Fenway, but the difference between that and getting swept was Adam Lind having a rough three games. Remember, too, that not one of the three starting pitchers the Jays sent to the mound in Boston was supposed to be in that role at ANY point in time this season (except maybe Cecil, later). It’s not that bad.
The Blue Jays have lost three series this year, and each of the two times previous, they’ve gone out and swept the next one. Tonight, they’ve got Roy Halladay on the mound to kick it off in Atlanta, and not only is he arguably the best pitcher in the game, he’s also the best-hitting pitcher in Jays history! That’s right, the good doctor is tied for the Jays’ all-time lead for hits by a pitcher (3) and RBIs by a pitcher (1). He’s even scored two runs.
It’s most certainly not the end of the world that the Jays were swept in Boston, nor does it mean that they’ve been a smoke-and-mirrors act for the first quarter of the season, even though they outperformed the expectations of any sane human being over that stretch. They were very definitely playing over their heads. At 27-17 (a 99-win pace), they still are.
After the game, Travis Snider was sent down to Las Vegas to find the swing that led him to last year’s terrific September and this year’s wonderful spring and first-14-games-of-the-regular-season. As hammered out by the lovely and talented Jordan Bastian on bluejays.com, Snider hit .310/.383/.643 over those first 14, but a miserable .185/.214/.204 since. He hasn’t homered since April 13th. For a while there, he appeared to be coming out of it – there was a five-game stretch over which he went 7-for-18 (.389) – but since then, he’d gone 1-for-8 with five strikeouts.
With interleague play coming up and Snider set to be nailed to the bench, and with the Jays having faced so many lefties that Snider had only started five times since May 7th, the timing seems to be right for a trip to Sin City. It happens to the best of them, and by the time he’s done here, Snider will wind up one of the best hitters the Jays have ever had. Here’s hoping he’s back soon, though if the Jays want to avoid Snider becoming a Super-2 after the 2011 season, they’ll have to leave him in AAA for at least seven weeks.
For those of you who want to compare Snider’s situation to that of Carlos Delgado, who homered eight times in April of ’94 but was in Syracuse by early June; Delgado was never recalled from AAA that season (though he probably would have been at least a September call-up if not for the strike), and didn’t re-establish himself as a major-league regular until 1996.
Mighty (Voodoo) Joe Inglett comes up from Vegas to take Snider’s place, with all of one game under his belt since being activated off the disabled list, to give Cito Gaston more versatility on the bench that he never uses. The question is, will Joe take Snider’s place as the ninth hitter and platoon left fielder against righties (after interleague), or will Adam Lind move out to left on a semi-permanent basis with Kevin Millar taking over the DH duties? Cito will likely address that tonight, tune into his pre-game interview with Jerry to hear what’s what.
Here’s last night’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Before I go, there’s been a lot of debate about the Blue Jays moving Roy Halladay to allow him to get a start in the next series against the Red Sox, which begins next Friday night at Rogers Centre. I stand steadfast against the notion of asking Halladay to pitch on short rest at this point in the season – there’s no good reason to do that, and I daresay that there’s nothing anyone could come up with that could convince me otherwise. It’s lunacy to throw your ace on three days’ rest in May, no matter where a team is in the standings.
However, I could be convinced that it’s not a bad idea to skip Halladay on Wednesday afternoon’s finale in Baltimore so that he can start Friday, with the caveat that it takes him out of his normal routine. Halladay on six days’ rest is likely to be a very different creature than Halladay on the normal four days’, and I don’t know if he’ll be comfortable with that. If he won’t be, then forget it. But if he would, why not? Bring Casey Janssen up to start the game in Baltimore, then leave him in the rotation in Ray’s spot.
If they do that with Halladay, then he pitches against the Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Phillies, Yankees and Rays and will be able to start the all-star game on five days’.
If Halladay continues on his regular routine, he starts against the Orioles, then faces the Angels, Royals, Marlins, Phillies, Reds (on five days’ rest), Phillies, Yankees and Rays, and will still be able to start the all-star game on five days’ rest.
So he wouldn’t miss any starts by pushing him back one, and he’d get the Red Sox instead of the O’s. He’d also lose a start in Texas, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, and pick one up against KC. Again, it’s something with which Halladay has to be comfortable, but if he is, I’m all for it.
Tune into The Director’s Chair this afternoon at 1:00 PM Eastern, on the Fan590 and this very website, I’ll be on with Doug Farraway, then pick us up at 7:00 PM Eastern for a full pre-game from Hotlanta.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Hi Mike – Couldn’t believe the caller that was convinced the Jays didn’t “show up” for this series at Fenway.
On May 2th-4th 2008, Team X got swept at Fenway Park to scores of 7-3, 12-4 and 7-3.
On June 3rd-5th 2008, that same team got swept at Fenway to scores of 7-4, 5-1 and 7-1.
That team was the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays also swept the Red Sox a few times at the Trop. There’s no reason we can’t return the favor to the Sox next week at the Rogers Center.
This season, the Yankees got swept at Fenway. The same Yankees that just reeled off 9 wins in a row.
Not saying we’ll win the pennant, but getting swept at Fenway where the Sox are incredibly strong, is not the end of the world. It is not the measuring stick of our season to date and doesn’t serve any predictive value for the rest of the season.
MW: Correct – except you might need to go to the dentist.
- T from NYHello Mike
Like you said, it wasn’t a surprised they were swept by the bosox. They just didn’t show up, did poorly with man on base and basically, that was the difference. An error by Lind in the first game allowed a run to score, men on base on the third game, they could not bring ducks on the pond in, an anomaly from this season’s trend. All we hope is that this is not a trend to come.
I think it is time they bring Jansen back. He is pitching too well in the minor league to stay there plus he has had a really good season on relief two years ago before he got injured. I think I would rather see him brought up than Joe Inglet
MW: Well, you get them both. By the way, to say the Jays didn’t show up in Boston is ridiculous.
- francis xHi Mike
I like the idea of pushing Halladay back one and getting him to start against the Red Sox. Also, it would be great if the KC start were against Grienke.
I hope he and Cito agree to it
MW: It’s going to be more difficult for that to happen now that Ray and Cecil have been shipped out. Impossible, actually.
- Richard from ARWilner,
I must say that we do not see eye to eye on everything, however, I do appreciate the love you have for these Jays. Opinions aside, in the end we just need more support and you are aiding the cause.
The reason Im writing here now is because I had a little debate over a couple of sauce pops with a buddy of mine who is a bigtime Jays fan. We were arguing about the money that was actually saved in the Shannon Stewart Signing/Reed Johnson Leaving situation. He believes its around 1 mill, however I believe I heard you say on a Jays talk that it was closer to 500k. Can you explain the money side of this and how much they actually saved? Also, if we had’ve held onto Reed do you think we would be a better team right now with an OF like that on our bench rather than a Jose Bautista? Or do you like having that Power bat instead of a gritty guy with a knack for clutch hits?
MW: Reed didn’t have a knack for clutch hits, for one thing. He has a career OPS of .752. With 2 outs and RISP, it’s .687, in “late and close” situations it’s .640. The Blue Jays were set to pay Reed $3.275 million, and in releasing him had to pay 1/6th of that, so they were out about $550,000. They paid Shannon Stewart $1.5 million. So they saved just over a million bucks. It’s not really a choice between Johnson and Bautista, since Jose is here to also be the back-up at third. It’s more a choice between Johnson and Lind or Snider.
- Brent CarterYour so right about fence sitters in this city. After spring training, no one thought they had a chance, then a hot start and everyone thinks the jays are playoff bound. Whatever holes the yanks or soxs have will be filled come august because they have money to do so. If the jays can keep up I’ll be just as happy as everyone else but I’m not counting on it. why can’t sports fans be more level headed like you, although i imagine thats part of the reason you have this job.
keep up the good work.
p.s. whats the over under on my posts being put up if i continually mention you should be doing a podcast.
MW: There’s nothing I can do about the podcast.
- DerrickI saw that the Jays were 4-24 RISP in Boston. That is how you can have 13 hits in a game and score 3 runs. The offense hit a bit of a bump and that is to be expected.
I heard some of the Jays talk and listening to some of the callers wondering why Halladay didn’t pitch on short rest. Are they kidding themselves? I’m with you on the push back a start if Doc is OK with it to get Boston when they come to Toronto at the end of the month.
Play .500 on the road and win a buch at home and your team will be in the playoff hunt. Jays are currently on pace to win 58 games at Rogers Centre. It’s not likely to reach 58, but they have been very close if not over 50 wins at home the last 3 years. No reason to think that trend won’t continue.
Before the road trip started, I figured at 5-4 for the 9 games would be successful. Who cares who they get the 5 wins against!!!
Should be an exciting series this weekend in Atlanta. I like the move of giving Snider regular playing time in AAA than platooning. I think he just put too much pressure on himself. It’s funny how the 2 positions (LF and 1B) that weren’t supposed to be platoons coming out of spring training have turned into that. I wonder if Overbay is going to be getting more playing time at 1B with Lind shifting to LF and Millar being the DH. Or would Bautista take over the DH role against lefties and Millar play 1B?
If the Marlins came to JP and Beeston and said we will trade Hanley Ramirez to you for 5 players (2 being starting pitchers), who would you send?
MW: I don’t think anything will change against lefties. The question is, will Lind move to LF and Millar DH against righties, or will Inglett play left against righties? Any five players? I’d send them John McDonald, Inglett and Russ Adams along with Ray and Richmond.
- Aaron KerHey Mike I heard your show after the game last night and you said the bosox are a better team than the jays. Well I disagree with you and everyone else who thinks that way. If they were a better team, they would be in 1st, even though they have finished the west coast (losers I may add). The jays are a better team, and they didn’t show it in this series and I think they should be punished for that. They should do a full day of running and be disappointed with themselves and get a chance to think about how they blew it with probably the two most important teams they face during the season. Yes they swept the chisox but look at that team honestly; they played horribly in the field and at bat and were being managed by a temp manager who was trying to call outstanding plays instead of playing fundamentals, so I didn’t expect anything less for that series, and didn’t even think it should have been that close for those games, more in the lines of the 20-1 loss they were handed yesterday. As for this series and the one with the yankees, they didn’t give it 100%, and I believe it all came from that first win against the yanks, they lost focus, and now they need to be dog runned for 2 days straight to regain it. please don’t assume the red sox are a better team than the jays, I don’t care if the payroll is 50 times what the jays is, money doesn’t buy success – like in anything in life, not just sports. You have fat cat bankers who don’t do the best job but get the most pay, that doesn’t make them the best. If it did, then ortiz wouldn’t have taken this long to hit 1 home run. The jays are the best fundamental baseball playing team in the american league, and all they need to do is not lose the focus they had coming into the season…which is easier said than done, but that is the true test of winning. I believe they will, and if they do, watch them sweep the bogusox next week.
MW: This may have been the most ridiculous comment I’ve come across here for a while.
- CameronI like the idea of Halladay skipping the finale against the O’s and facing the Red Sox instead. Because you can still be reasonably confident in Casey Janssen to win that game against the O’s I think it’d be a savvy move to pitch Halladay against the tough Red Sox.
I’m not sure if you meant that he loses a start against KC and gains a start against the Rangers (thats what it looks like). If that were the case I wouldn’t be too thrilled about him pitching in Arlington.
One last thing. Let’s not kid ourselves, I think its quite obvious who will be starting the all-star game. Although Halladay would be more than deserving for his years of consistent greatness, I can’t think of a scenario that doesn’t have Greinke starting (except of course if he pitches the day or two before the game).
MW: It’s true, Greinke is very likely to start the all-star game. The Jays can’t do that Janssen thing now, though. If the Jays had pushed Halladay back to start against the Red Sox Friday, he’d have lost a start against KC and gained one against the Rangers, yes.
- ScottHey mike just wondering what you know about fabio castro?
Great numbers in double A got promoted and great numbers in triple A, Have you seen him pitch?
MW: Nope.
- RyanHey Mike,
Tough series for sure… I had three quickies for ya:
1) Do you think the Jays were nervous going into Boston with the best record in the league? Not so much the veterans, but I can definitely see it playing some mind games with guys like Lind, Cecil and Ray.
2) I know it’s a “less than 1% chance” scenario, but what does it take the Jays to get Peavy, and is it worth it? (Imagine he waves the no trade…)
3) I really like the Jays chances against the team with the least home runs and stolen bases in the league. With Halladay going tonight, the Jays should be able to get right back on track!
Thanks Mike!
MW: 1 – Maybe Ray and Cecil, once they saw how close that wall was, but I don’t think anybody else. 2 – It’s not going to happen.
- Luke (Halifax)Hi Mike,
Did you see how many groundball outs Cecil had in his Fenway baptism the other night? Ten (10)! Ten (10) in only 4.1 innings! Flyball outs? Zero. Amazing.
This kid is the definitely the real deal for me, the Fenway experience aside. Whether his time turns out to be now, later in the season or next season, I believe this kid is going to be very, very good. Plus, aside from the great stuff, I really like his competitiveness and composure on the mound. I’m really excited about this guy going forward.
MW: Join the club.
- JamieMW: I don’t think it’s about the players, it’s about the fans. There has only been one day since the roof was fixed that it has been closed on a good-weather day, Monday, and that day the temperature only got up to 16 degrees.
I suspect you are right that there are some (many?) Jays fans / season ticket holders who don’t like to sit outdoors when the weather is not in the mid-to high teens celsius (espcially some of the senior folks). Then again, I doubt many Red Sox or Cub fans (young or old) are longing for the day when they can move out of Fenway or Wrigley and into a nice futuristic-looking domed stadium to watch their beloved team play in April-May or September-October.
When you consider the fact that the most important games of the season (playoffs / World Series) are played in some of the coldest weather of the season in northern cities with open air stadiums, it’s hard to argue that one shouldn’t open the roof unless the weather is at least in the mid to high teens celsius.
Game threatened by rain / snow / extremely cold? Fine, keep the lid on. If not, I say play outdoors.
MW: I agree, except that it shouldn’t have to be extremely cold to force the roof shut. But the keyholders don’t.
- jimI think the only problem with the Jays lineup is that they have 2 no.3 hitters..Wells has had his best seasons in the no.3 spot..He batted 3rd in front of Glaus and Delgato and had great seasons..
He doesn’t look to comfortable at no.4 but who else do they have to put there?..He is getting paid the big bucks now and has to step up..
It isn’t realistic to expect the Jays to continue at this pace without some adversity..
The Red Sox and Yankees won’t win 110 games in a row either..Its funny how the worm turns in this city over a few losses or a few wins..
MW: We should be used to it. And when you say the Jays have two number 3 hitters, you mean Adam Lind and who?
- ray b“he’s also the best-hitting pitcher in Jays history! That’s right, the good doctor is tied for the Jays’ all-time lead for hits by a pitcher (3) and RBIs by a pitcher (1). He’s even scored two runs”
Staggering numbers! if his pitching doesn’t get him into the hall of fame…his big bat will!
- Randycompletely off topic but…
the other day you mentioned that the jays only saved 500K or so in the tradeoff between stewart and johnson…can you explain this?
stewart made 1.5, while johnson was signed to just under 3.3 with the 600K buyout.
if those #s are accurate, they saved 1.2M, so where does the discrepency lie between what you quoted the caller, and what the math yields?
MW: I was wrong. See above. I wonder why I thought that – I think in my mind I had Reed’s contract at about $2.5, not about $3.3.
- Jay BMike,
Question for you, do you listen to and daily podcasts? Are there any that you truly enjoy?
MW: I don’t listen to any. I haven’t really been able to figure out my iPod yet.
- JeffI listened to Jerry and Alan talk of Cito’s inability to point to a legit number two starter in the Jays’ rotation.
I must have been seeing things wrong because it seemed to me Romero had better stuff than any of the current four starters under Halladay. In fact, Romero demonstrated the exceptional(fastball and breaking pitches), not the merely serviceable. I see no reason to believe that Bobby Ray for instance won’t continue to be poor against decent hitting teams, and serviceable to good against lesser offences, but unless they are going to make call ups just to face the Yankees,Rays, Red Sox, Rangers etc. Romero’s stay in the minors will be lengthened. I think the organization looks dumb on this one, and will take a hit with losses against the better teams.
MW: They don’t look so dumb anymore, I guess.
- Will, OshawaHey Mike,
Do you figure JP will make a trade to fill the hole in LF (or DH, if Lind returns to the OF) with Snider being sent down? Voodoo Joe wouldn’t embarrass himself as a platoon LF and his UZR indicates he’s a pretty solid OF defender, but it certainly would be nice to add the offensive production we hoped for from Snider.
Peter Gammons says the Nats offered Nick Johnson to the Bosox for Manny Delcarmen, an offer the Jays could match if they wanted to(League or Accardo perhaps). Thoughts?
JW
MW: I’d love to have Nick Johnson here, he could DH and Lind could move out to left. If they can get Nick the Stick for Accardo, that’s a move they should make.
- johnny wasHey Mike, you mentioned the possibility of leaving Snider down in Triple A for at least 7 weeks to avoid him becoming a Super 2 in 2011. What does that mean?
MW: I need an FAQ section, that’s what it means. :-) If the Jays leave Snider down for seven weeks or so, he likely won’t have enough major-league service time to be eligible for arbitration after the 2011 season. Though the more I think about it, it would probably have to be a lot closer to ten weeks.
- KatyHi Mike,
In terms of the Jays staying in the AL East race, I believe the Jays do have enough pitching depth to hang in it, whether it’s on the current roster, in the minors or rehabbing. Also, I believe the lack of experience argument for the pitchers is a bit overrated. Just look at what Tampa’s starters did last year with very little relevant experience. The Jays have developed some pitchers with good stuff and good stuff should ultimately rule the day.
However, I do believe that the key for the Jays to staying in this race will have to be very good production from Rios and Wells. If these guys don’t have good years, and right now they’re not even close, I can’t see the Jays staying in it much longer – not in this division. Most (or almost all) of the complimentary hitters in the Jays’ lineup are currently having career years. If Rios and Wells don’t start hitting soon the Jays run the risk of wasting this wonderful asset, just as they wasted MLB’s best pitching last year.
I believe the Jays really, really have to try to acquire a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and thereby take some of the dependence off of these guys. Rios and Wells are very good all-around players at times, but I think the Jays need at least one great bat to make this thing work. A move like that could change the Jays from a very good team to a great team, and in this division the Jays have to be great to win. Mike, I think they’re actually that close now – just one hitter away.
MW: Rios and Wells are bound to bounce back, Rios has already started to.
- JamieHi Mike,
Yes it’s May and still relatively early in the 162 game schedule, but referring to throwing Doc out on short rest as “lunacy” is a far stretch. Seasons are defined by key moments. Take last year for example: B.J. Ryan’s meltdown in Anaheim and New York in the first week of June cost the Blue Jays any chance of contending. It’s premature to tell whether or not this series at Fenway will be a defining moment for the ‘09 Jays but if your reason for not setting up the rotation to allow your horse to pitch in two series against the Red Sox (which John Gibbons had a history of doing) is because it’s only May, well Mike, Halladay might not get another chance to pitch in a competitive environment in August or September, time will tell.
-Michael
MW: There’s a difference between setting up your rotation to get a match-up and throwing a guy on short rest. It’s utter lunacy do to the latter in May.
- MichaelMike – Mr. Hyperbole here. And I’m going to avoid laying it on thick mostly because the working day is only half over, and I’m going to talk about Alex Rios.
Yesterday, if you recall, I had nothing but plaudits and optimism for our prodigal right fielder. Today, I can’t help but wonder how he’d do as a nuclear power plant technician. There’s a pretty good chance we’d all be obliterated by now, since he’d be more than likely to find a way and create a second Chernobyl out of Pickering.
Tuesday. Early innings. Called out by three steps on a 66mph knuckleball delivered by Wakefield and thrown by their backup catcher. Wednesday. Clueless and slightly slack at the plate. Zero clutch. Thursday. Short porch in right field. Fly ball off the bat of Jason Bay that should be caught. Takes a ridiculous route to get there. Unsure of proximity. Puts up glove meekly. The ball bounces off the top of a *three* foot fence and goes out. A small part of me dies.
Would you agree that being an Alex Rios apologist is up there with defending Brian Mulroney and Conrad Black? Cito needs to sit this man down and remind him that being a ballplayer is a privilege and not a right. Either play hard and stay focused, or sit down and give other men the chance to demonstrate what real fortitude is all about!
MW: Let’s see what you have to say about him tomorrow.
- Ari ShapiroAs an irregular visitor and listener I apologize if this has all been covered before. Why the broadcast changes this season? There doesn’t seem to be a pre-pregame show anymore. Ditto Wednesdays with J.P. and the network Jays Talk seems awfully short. The other night there was one caller before the network sign-off and after the half-hour (on Fan590) you mad some cryptic comment to a caller about “different clock, different rules”, but you didn’t explain what you meant. Management decisions? Your choice? Different emphasis for the station?
Secondly, I think the biggest elephant in the room (well, not really an elephant because it does get some commentary, but not much) is attendance both at Rogers Centre(right name?) and on the road. What good does all the hand wringing about the latest loss do if the team can’t draw a decent crowd? The day-to-day doesn’t bother me as much as the possibility that this anomaly might disappear to become another U.S. team. I know it’s a catch-22 situation when you need fans to boost the bottom line so you can spend to make a better team but fans won’t come unless it IS a better team but I do worry that we could lose the team in the next 5 years. Glancing nightly at reported attendance in the game summaries in the newspaper, I notice that for home games the Jays don’t beat many other ball parks in either league. Basketball left, hockey left, baseball left, and I fear indifference might spell the end of the Jays.
Thirdly, it is painful to listen to you try to criticize Cito Gaston without making it obvious. Before he was hired last June(?) you made it clear you didn’t think he was the man for the job, but the minute he was hired you had to be stop as he was now working for your organization. The small digs you make now and the pregnant pauses make it abundantly clear how you feel. Too bad you don’t have the journalistic and broadcastitorrial (new word) freedom to be up front about it. Ah well. It spite of it all you deserve to be heard more and I hope your time does not get back any more. (Why weren’t you in the booth when Ashby was absent those few games?)
MW: 1 – Management decision. It’s certainly not a different emphasis, but the clock has changed on the post-game so it turns out that the network affiliates don’t get it for as long now. 2 – I don’t see why you would think that A leads to B. The Jays are still drawing in the middle of the pack, though it’s not the low part of the middle, and there haven’t been any nice weekends yet, nor has there been a weekend visit from the Yankees or Red Sox. If they continue to play well, they’ll beat last year’s attendance. There’s no threat of the Jays moving south. What did you mean by basketball left, hockey left, baseball left? Are you talking about Canada as a whole? None of those things have ever left Toronto, unless you count the Huskies, Towers, Toros or Roadrunners. 3 – I have all the journalistic and broadcastatorrial freedom that anyone can have, and I’m very up front about the times when I disagree with Cito. I’m pretty offended by the insinuation, especially seeing how most people think I’m very anti-Gaston (I’m not, I just wish he did some things differently). And I was in the booth when Ashby was absent, as I am for all home games. I was allowed to do play-by-play for the 5th inning of each of those games.
- Bill FeeneyWho are they calling up to take Snider’s spot?
MW: Read the post on which you’re commenting.
- DomenickI apologize if I missed it but why do you think Bedard is a jerk? If so, who is the “badder” (pardon the grammar) man: Bedard or Mussina?
P.S. Jordan Bastian is lovely?
MW: Bedard is a jerk because of the way he treats the people who cover him. I’ll still take him over Mussina, though. And what’s not lovely about Bastian?
- Joe N.Hi Mike:
I mostly agree with your sentiments about being swept by the Red Sox at this point in the season. Tallet pitched well enough to win, and whatever Cecil and Ray could muster up would have been a bonus. I’d like to see at least another start or two from Cecil before recalling Romero and Janssen seems likely to replace Ray.
Inspite of maintaining a decent average in this series though (Wells), don’t you think Cito should consider switching Lind/Wells and or Hill/Rios? Lind did have a rough series (lots of LOBs) but he has shown that he is best run producer (aside from Hill) on the team this season. I’d like the idea of Rios either lead-off or second to give Hill more RBI opportunities, but these moves are debatable. They do speak however, to my last question. If Vernon/Rios’s production/clutchness is maintained at its current level, at what point if you are Cito would you consider a change?
Completely agree Snider needs a confidence boost and consistent at-bats in triple AAA. Lind had similar struggles last year and look what he is doing now.
Brendon
MW: Cito doesn’t consider changes. Well, maybe he considers them, but he always thinks better of it.
- BrendonHi Mike,
My question is regarding the umpires. When they miss really clear calls like yesterday, does anything come of that after the game? Do they review those calls?
I am refering to the miss of the call on first, as well as the few Strike 3 calls that should of been called balls.
I know the umps are human and miss calls, yesterday was just horrible and it seemed like there were a lot more bad calls then normal. Even the Red Sox commentators were commenting on the many missed calls.
Thanks!
MW: All umpires have their games reviewed on a regular basis by umpires supervisors, who are former umpires themselves. I don’t remember a clearly missed call at first. Are you referring to the one on Ellsbury?
- KaisaMike,
Sweep and be swept.Can we assume that the Jays now are a third place team in their division (have not played Tampa yet)? Hopefully Beeston can work the phones to trade for another starting pitcher i.e. Peavy if they want to contend for the playoffs this year.
It certainly was a disappointing series with the BoSox.
MW: No, you can’t assume the Jays are now a third-place team. They’re in first place. And Beeston doesn’t work the phones to make trades.
- MarkApparently Janssen and Romero will be called up with Janssen going on Saturday. I think that this negates the Roy Halladay plan because after this Saturday Casey will pitch the opener against the Red Sox.
MW: It certainly does negate the Halladay plan. And there’s nothing apparent about it!
- ScottMike,
You are not allowed to get on anyone’s case about their musical selection until you stop playing cheesie 80s tunes. In your free time I’d half expect to find you in a purple track suit watching the breakfast club. Gross!
Anyways, to the caller who wanted a HR threat. Take a look at team batting. The jays are 4th in baseball in HRs. I’d rather have my power balanced then get 1/3 of the team’s hr from one guy.
To people wanting to move Halladay up a day. At the end of the season a win is a win and a win against Boston does not equal two. And jerking pitchers around creates panic and does not create the calm needed for a 162 game season.
Finally, I am hoping Voodoo joe takes Snider’s role against right handed pitching. He put us some nice numbers last year against righties.
MW: Inglett was solid against righties last season, at .298/.355/.413. But that’s only about 20 points of OPS better than the major-league average.
- JWMichael of the Ballyard:
What the hell? Cito said very specifically, in reference to Cecil, “we’ll run him out there again and see what happens,” after he got shelled on Wednesday. Was he lying or did something change?
MW: Obviously something changed. Cito isn’t the general manager. Then again, he’s not going to tell reporters that they’re sending him out before he tells the kid.
- Kevin DraperMW: Correct – except you might need to go to the dentist.
What does this mean? I don’t get it.
MW: You said May 2th.
- T from NYMW: And Mike Rutsey of the Sun agreed, calling the Bay homer a catchable ball. They were there, so I’ll submit to their points of view. Rios, though, said that he couldn’t catch up to it, which was the way I saw it.
Alan Ashby said the ball should have been caught as did the Red Sox announcers. It looked to me like Rios simply took a silly route trying to get to the ball just as the ball came down, and then got caught up in his “fear of fences”. He could have and should have run straight back to the fence and then waited for the ball to arrive, making a fairly routine catch. He is certainly quick enough to have handled the play that way, rather that trying to time the play to catch the ball on the run just as he was reaching the wall.
MW: Ashby didn’t say Rios should have caught the ball. He might have said he “could” have caught the ball, but that’s a big difference. If Rios had run straight back to the fence, the ball would have hit off the top of the wall about 50-60 feet to his right. I’m not sure people are aware just how difficult a play that was.
- KitVery upset to see Cecil go down on a bad note. I was hoping he’d get one more start in Baltimore infront of his family and friends. He’s a local product.
Would’ve been nice if he could have made one more start and hopefully head back to Vegas on a positive note.
MW: It would have.
- T from NYMW – Sure it’d have been nice to win that home series against New York last week, but the difference between winning and losing that entire series was probably the Jays’ slowest baserunner being thrown out at home plate by about a millisecond. It would also have been nice to take a game or two at Fenway, but the difference between that and getting swept was Adam Lind having a rough three games.
What is the point of this “revisionist history”. These are the exact sort of things that separate winners from losers. You just can’t throw out your mistakes, as though they didn’t happen. And just as in real life, mistakes by inexperienced performers always seem to happen at exactly the worse possible time. This is the way life (and baseball) is.
You didn’t mention the Jays scoring zero runs with runners on 1st and 3rd and nobody, in the bottom of the 7th of a tie game. Or Penny and Lester (two pitchers with 6.00+ ERA) slicing through the Jays’ lineup with Johan Santana like precision.
MW – Remember, too, that not one of the three starting pitchers the Jays sent to the mound in Boston was supposed to be in that role at ANY point in time this season (except maybe Cecil, later). It’s not that bad.
You’re right. The three expected pitchers for this series at the start of the season were Romero, Richmond, and Purcey. What is the relevance of the fact that it turned out to be Tallet, Cecil, and Ray instead. I’m afraid you lost me there. The Jays were expecting to throw three nobodies out there, and instead they threw three pitchers out there who were really hot, albeit, still three nobodies. Just different names.
MW: I really don’t want to get into this with you. You lost me with your references to “revisionist history” and “mistakes”. The things that I mentioned weren’t mistakes, they were things that happen over the course of a 162-game season that don’t mean anything in the big picture. Barajas being thrown out wasn’t a mistake, it was a bang-bang play at the plate. The idea that these are the things that “separate winners from losers” is utter nonsense.
- KitI think the fact the Bosox have Jason Bay and a bonafide leadoff hitter was a huge difference in the three game series. At times the Jays seem to lack that game breaker at the plate and seem to fold a little in the big games against Boston and New York…hopefully, by mid-season we will be better equiped mentally to compete on a more even level with those two clubs.
MW: The Blue Jays’ lead-off man gets on base over 40% of the time, I’m confused as to why that’s not “bona fide”. You can’t lack a game breaker at the plate “at times” – either you have one or you don’t.
- Darryl SalachHey Mike, Wow that was fast, but its good too see Janssen and Romero get rewarded for good pitching. Quick question, it looks like Peavy rejected the trade to chicago, if the jays were involved in a deal for peavy, do you think he’d go along with it, or is toronto not somewhere that jake wants to be?
MW: If Chicago isn’t where Peavy wants to be, I can’t imagine Toronto is.
- SMHi Mike,
It was nice to see that you used my Delgado/Snider comparison of a previous post. Does this mean you will be needing an assistant for your work with the Fan590? I can do a Home Hardware out-of-town scoreboard for you. I would be glad to take calls with you on Jays Talk. Perhaps I can even contribute a blog for you every now and than? Just kidding, Mike. Just kidding.
- Ian from Whitbyfirst i would like to say that, i don’t agree with startting Doc on 3 days rest. I would like to get your opinion about jays starting Burnett on 3 days before the all star game last year. Would that much be much different from starting Doc on 3 days rest against Boston.
the caller about who talked jays not having a real 35 homerun threat, i think he is right. But the only way i can see the jays getting a player like that is, if they trade Snider, Cecil, or Arencibia. Maybe it would require a couple of those guys.
Only other way they get that slugger would be to trade current everyday players like Lind or Hill. Which i don’t like and would not necessarily make us a better team now.
I don’t think any of our pitchers other then Halladay can get that kind of return but that deal probably makes us a worse team. Maybe Marcum or Mcgowan could have been involved in a deal for a slugger when they were healthy but not now.
I might be favouring maybe waiting until next year to see, if snider can be that player or then go out and make a trade.
MW: I wish I could remember why Burnett threw that last game before the all-star break on short rest last year. I can’t. I think Snider will eventually be that 35-homer guy, probably next year.
- VjeyDoes Cecil’s and Snider’s demotion have anything to do with keeping their years served/ free agent status at a minimum?
MW: Cecil’s might have a bit to do with it, but it’s likely more the combination of Janssen/Romero being ready and Cecil getting lit up (and admitting to having let down) in Boston. With Snider, I doubt it’s about service time.
- Jeff G.Mike…I don’t know if Doc would want to alter the rotation in order to face Boston..My reasoning being because it was Roy last year who went on record saying that we have trouble getting up for the “non-Red Sox/Yankee games” and seem to be alright against N.Y and Boston…I know it’s not working out that way this year (so far) but Roy would be somewhat going against his credo of last year if he’s overlooking a so called inferior team, for lack of a better term, so he could face Boston (or N.Y) if it was them next up.
MW: Interesting take.
- chris m.MW: All umpires have their games reviewed on a regular basis by umpires supervisors, who are former umpires themselves. I don’t remember a clearly missed call at first. Are you referring to the one on Ellsbury?
I believe this post was referring to the Scutaro throw to Millar that pulled him off of first base momentarily. Millar did get his foot back on the bag, and Lugo stepped over first base with out touching it.
MW: Yeah, that was a bad call, as it turns out. But I wouldn’t call it crazy bad.
- SGA not too likely prediction for tonight:
Doc out-hits the Braves
I’m not putting any money on it, but I hope.
MW: It was an excellent idea not to put any money on it.
- Dilly in DundasWouldn’t they still be able to call up a Purcey or a Mills for one start on Wednesday?
MW: Yes. But they won’t.
- AriI’m still on this bandwagon. Won’t jump off until the Jays are 10 games back with 9 to play.
- Tom TomI do have to admit that while I won’t say the Jays failed to show in Boston;I was a little disappointed that no bats rose to the occasion.
It’s all good though,we lost 3 in a row to a team that can’t get much hotter and on the road to boot.
We’ll see what happens when they have to come to our house.
CITO!!!!
ur kidding right?
MW: About?
- CameronI probably missed what happened with him Mike, but why is Bedard a jerk for? What do you mean when you say he “is a jerk because of the way he treats the people who cover him”
MW: He’s not very nice to reporters. Or should I say, he’s very not nice to reporters.
- OzHey Mike, you mis-spelled Ray’s first name — obviously, it should be Brobberty — got to get all the letters in, in the right order!
RE: #27, the “missed call” at first — I’m not sure as to which call this particular poster was referring, but it may well have been the play that resulted in Scutaro’s first error of the season. On two counts — 1, that Millar got his toe back down on the bag in time, and 2 (more significantly) I don’t think that Lugo ever touched first base!
One replay angle seemed clearly to show that one foot came down just short of the bag, and the next step was completely over — whether or not Millar beat him with the “toe-tap”, he definitely did touch the bag before Lugo got back there after being called safe.
I think he was out, and that Hirschbeck missed that call.
Another question for you, Mike, does Overbay make the play on Ellsbury’s lead-off “double”? I think “Yes”, even though his glove is on the “off” hand. If that tough ground ball is turned into an out, the entire first inning (and hence the game) changes!
And, finally — that Jason Bay guy might turn out to be pretty good! (Can you see Manny making that catch on Adam Lind, up against the wall)?
MW: He was out, but that’s a tough call for an umpire to make. I don’t know if Overbay makes that play, but I like his chances.
- NormPersonally, I think this team needs Janssen in the rotation. And probably Litsch too. I’m not against young talent, but I’m thinking that having 3 starters with a total of maybe 200 ML innings, and another one who has all of his innings in relief is maybe not the best way to get consistently good results from your staff.
Halladay/Litsch/Richmond/Janssen/Romero, if they are healthy. If you consider 2009 the ‘looking forward’ year, these 5 leave you with a mix of at least some experience and a couple of rookies who get a chance to learn their big league routine. I keeps Cecil and Mills from using up service time, and it offers an opportunity over the winter to show other teams how well your prospects do at the major league level. This rotation also sets up with 2 lefties and 3 righties.
I don’t know where the Jays will be in September, but I know I feel better, for now, with Janssen back, who was obviously killing AAA hitters, unlike just about every other callup.
I know JP was kidding, but they are doing just about everything I can imagine to convince me that they are, in fact, “Making this up as we go along.”
MW: Janssen was in A-ball and AA. I’m not convinced Tallet isn’t going to make it as a starter. He was, at least, the only one who pitched well in Boston.
- Greg WFrom STATS…..the authors of the The Fielding Bible
May 22, 2009
Also leading their division, the Toronto Blue Jays have relied on shortstop Marco Scutaro (9 Runs Saved) and another 2007 Fielding Bible Award winner, second baseman Aaron Hill (8 Runs Saved).
Defense has been and will continue to be a key component for both the Rangers and Blue Jays to stay in contention this year.
Here are the top five and bottom five defenses in baseball through May 20th:
Defensive Runs Saved—Top Five Teams
Texas Rangers……..28
Toronto Blue Jays….25
Tampa Bay Rays…….21
Cincinnati Reds……18
Houston Astros…….14
Defensive Runs Saved—Bottom Five Teams
- the stat ladyArizona Diamondbacks -9
Washington Nationals -9
Chicago White Sox -16
Boston Red Sox -22
Baltimore Orioles -24
Michael of the Ballyard:
MW: Obviously something changed. Cito isn’t the general manager. Then again, he’s not going to tell reporters that they’re sending him out before he tells the kid.
—
What could have possibly changed? ‘If Boston sweeps us, we’ll panic and shake up the rotation, but if we can salvage a game we’ll stay the course and let Cecil go back out there’? And should you be giving guys votes of confidence and guaranteeing (that’s essentially what he did) their next start when, well, it isn’t guaranteed? Regardless of whether or not you’ve already told Cecil he’s going down, you shouldn’t telling reporters the exact opposite, especially when Cecil’s gonna hear it in the media.
A non-answer would have been good: “We have a lot of guys in the minors that are close and obviously we’ll need to talk to JP and Arnsberg and the players involved and see where we go from here.”
MW: Right. Which means to everyone who hears it: “Cecil is going to be sent down before his next scheduled start.”
- Kevin DraperI wish people realized how many runs Alex Rios has saved the Jays in the outfield during his career before they jump all over him for not catching a ball that wasn’t exactly a can of corn.
MW: That’s not the way it works.
- Brettwhat are your thought on the callups and did you expect this?
MW: Aren’t my thoughts right there on the post on which you’re commenting? No, I didn’t expect this.
- markRE: your response to comment #1
It’s not often that I repeatedly miss a joke. I often have to re-read to get it, especially your oddball ’80′s cultural references, but…
Has the commenter endangered his teeth due to the repeated use of the word “swept”? Or is it because you felt he was writing through clenched teeth?
MW: Read his comment again.
- James (from the Church of the Double Steal)Mike,
Romero and Janssen are now back up with the big club, much quicker than you may have thought. Can I hear an admission that your ‘track record’ argument didn’t hold a whole lot of weight?
MW: Nope. I was just going with what the GM told me.
- ChrisMike,
You’re right that it’s completely unwarranted to pitch Halladay on short rest in May. What a manager should have done is look at his rotation 3 weeks ago and figure out how to make sure your #1 guy pitches against Boston twice and maybe misses the Atlanta series after you say you don’t want Doc getting hurt batting, which is exactly what Cito was quoted in the paper this morning saying.
All they had to do was push his LA start back and have him go in Oakland on a few extra days rest. Then you still have him against the Yankees and he pitches game 1 at Fenway. You then skip him on Sunday and get him going again Monday in Baltimore. This sets him up to go against Boston and I could go on but you should be getting my point by now. (I say you don’t skip him on Sunday but this would allow Cito to save face and not sound so hypocritical of his assessment of inter-league play. I don’t want Halladay running the bases so maybe you do protect him.)
You say you are worried about Halladay being a creature of habit and possibly not being able to pitch on an extra couple of days rest. The way the rotation is currently set, he will pitch on 5 days rest 3 times because of off days. And what if it rains in Atlanta? He could conceivably get extra days rest because of rainouts, but that can’t be controlled. You have to do what you can control and that is put Halladay up as many times against TB, Boston & New York as possible. If I can figure it out, why can’t Cito?
PS Beeston might not work the phone for trades but he certainly could work the phones to talk someone and his agent to come to Toronto. Did he not do this to get Clemens to sign back in the day?
MW: Yes, he certainly did, when Clemens was a free agent.
- Shawn in CaledonSorry, one more comment (just listening to yesterday’s show):
The Boston adoption of “Sweet Caroline” is something that seems to be a fantastic happenstance which had nothing to do with marketing folks fishing around for an extra 0.1% rating. In my humble opinion, sports in general need more of this kind of silliness.
Plus, predictably, I love Mr. Diamond.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/05/29/another_mystery_of_the_diamond_explained_at_last/
MW: He was great in Saving Silverman.
- James (from the Church of the Double Steal)Hey Mike
You say throwing your ace on 3 days rest in May is ridiculous. I say throwing your ace for 250IP in a year you are not contending is ridiculous.
The way the rotation is set up Doc missed Boston last series and will miss them again next time around. Poor managing by Cito, plain and simple. The Jays are overachieving at this point, but with 1/4 of the games behind them they find themselves in first place. When you consider the difficulty in trying to compete with Boston, New York and Tampa over a full season, Cito needs to play every angle and take advantage of every opportunity possible to squeeze out a few extra wins if they hope to contend. A win against Boston in May is just as valuable as one is September.
A little creativity is all it takes to get Doc on the mound for both series vs Boston. If you don’t want to start him on 3 days rest, give him extra rest along the way and have him pitch game 1 last series. Or, run him out there on 3 days rest but remove him early during the previous start. During Docs last start, the Jays held a 6-2 lead after 5 innings….perfect opportunity to yank him with the intention of pitching him again vs a major contender.
thanks,
MW: Lost in all this is the fact that the Jays scored one run last night.
- rickMW wrote “For those of you who want to compare Snider’s situation to that of Carlos Delgado, who homered eight times in April of ‘94 but was in Syracuse by early June; Delgado was never recalled from AAA that season (though he probably would have been at least a September call-up if not for the strike), and didn’t re-establish himself as a major-league regular until 1996.”
Couple of thoughts on that:
1) Delgado didn’t re-establish himself until 1996 because the Jays were nuts – during the rest of 94 he had a .945ops in Syracuse and wasted another full yr at AAA with a 1013 ops in 95.
2) If you look at the year prior to both players getting there first shot full time shot – Delgado was a far better hitter than Snider.
Delgado 93 – .954 ops, .430 ob in the Southern League
Snider 08 – .836 ops, .356ops majority at bats at AA East League
Granted Delgado was 8 months older at the time which isn’t insignificant but he was a far better hitter.
I think if you look at the very best hitters – you will see that even as early as 20 they will have shown truly remarkable abilities in 1 and usually multiple of these three areas:
1) Making contact,
2) HR ratio
3) bb ratio
Snider has not shown remarkable abilities at any minor league level in either of these three categories. He’s been somewhere between poor (making contact) to above average to good (bb and hr ratio).
He’s going to be as good as his bat because he really doesn’t offer much defensively. I think he has a good chance to be a really good player but I think it’s very unlikely that he turns into one of the top hitters in the game over the next 10 years the way Delgado did.
MW: Delgado is a borderline Hall of Famer, so Snider would be running in some pretty fast company. As for your knock on his defense, what have you been watching?
- Jim MaronRegarding the Boston series I was actually encouraged –
The Jays outhit Boston 30-28, the walks were about dead even, 7-6 in favour of Boston. Yes the Sox homered 6 times to 1 for the Jays, but the Sox also K’d 24 times to 13 for the Jays.
Nothing I watched in that series made me feel any less positive about their chances this year.
MW: But they got swept! They have no heart! It’s over!
- Jim MaronHey Mike, good column. I think it’s crazy to juggle the rotation in May so Halladay can pitch in the Sox series. Also, I don’t recall anybody here suggesting that before the series started, they all seemed quite happy with Cecil and Ray. You can’t always have it both ways. Let them pitch and learn, it is a very long season and they will be better for it in the long run.
MW: There were plenty of people suggesting it ahead of time. This wasn’t all hindsight.
- paulMike,
I think what a lot of bandwagon jumpers don’t consider enough, is that this past Jays series was a tough road series. They played the Red Sox, who are very tough this season so far at home, and this without Halladay. I think one win would have been considered a victory in this series.
Winning on the road is seemingly quite difficult for everyone is this year, so far. Consider that the best road record in the AL this year is 11-10 (the Jays are 11-11).
Just a small bump in the road in my opinion. If they got swept at home, that’d be harder to swallow.
- RMHey Mike
I think you have your years mixed up. If Snider played through this year and next year without being sent down then there is a possibility of him becoming a super 2 after the 2010. However after his demotion he has a total of 76 days of service time. In order for him not to become a super 2 after the 2010 season, he would need to be called up after July 1st.
However, even if he is called up before July 1st, (for argument sake June 15), and assuming that he sticks through this and next year, he would only have accumulated 2 years and 14 days of service (give or take a day). I haven’t done any research but I doubt that would put him in the top 17% of players who have more than two, but less than three years of service time after the 2010 season.
What this whole thing means is that he will likely become a super 2 after the 2011 season. (assuming he comes back up at some point this season and plays in the majors in 2010 and 2011.
MW: I didn’t have my years mixed up, I meant 2011. There is no way that Snider can be a Super 2 after the 2010 season. None whatsoever, and there never was. If the Jays keep him down for 10 weeks right now, then call him up for the rest of the season and all of 2010 and 2011, then when you consider his time in ’08, Snider will go into the 2011 off-season basically as though he’d had consecutive service from about May 15th-20th, 2009 – two years plus however many days that works out to, which puts him on the bubble of Super 2ness.
- Nick "The Greek"It’s nice to see Joe Inglett again although I would have preferred that Snider had not struggled. Will this mean that Overbay will go up against lefties. I hope not. No disrespect to Lyle but I’d rather see a singles hitter in Inglett that watch Overbay flail away against lefties. Is flail a word?
MW: Flail is a word, but Inglett’s not a good hitter against lefties. Snider never played against lefties, so why would anything change on that side?
- DomenickYou can’t wait to see Janssen hit? Was that sarcasm or can he hit?
MW: He homered in his first at-bat in college.
- DomenickMW: I didn’t have my years mixed up, I meant 2011. There is no way that Snider can be a Super 2 after the 2010 season. None whatsoever, and there never was. If the Jays keep him down for 10 weeks right now, then call him up for the rest of the season and all of 2010 and 2011, then when you consider his time in ‘08, Snider will go into the 2011 off-season basically as though he’d had consecutive service from about May 15th-20th, 2009 – two years plus however many days that works out to, which puts him on the bubble of Super 2ness.
Of course there was a chance. If he played through this year (2009) and next year 2010, he would have accumulated 2 years and 31 days of service time. Was there a chance for him to be Super 2?? Probably. However it depends on the rest of the “more than 2 but less than 3″ players in 2010.
But even if he gets sent down for 10 weeks and gets called up for the remainder of the season he would have accumulated 141 days of service time going into this off season. Assuming he stays in the majors for all of 2010 and 2011, he will have accumulated 2 years and 141 days of service time. Which means it will be very likely he becomes a super 2 after the 2010 season.
Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t see how it’s possible for him to be up all of 2010 and 2011 and (considering he has already accumulated 76 days of service), not become a super in after the 2010 season. (With 2 years and 141 days of service he would definitely fall in the top 17%)
MW: You mean 2011 at the bottom there. If he misses 10 weeks this season, that’s 70 days. That would mean he’d have about 100 days this season, 131 overall counting last year. That would put him right on the bubble. Two years and 31 days gives a player LESS THAN NO chance of being a Super 2, if that’s possible.
- Nick "The Greek"Michael of the Ballyard:
MW: Right. Which means to everyone who hears it: “Cecil is going to be sent down before his next scheduled start.”
—
I still think that beats saying he’ll definitely get his next start and then sending him down the next day, though. How couldn’t it?
MW: It doesn’t work that way. And, remember, there’s a chance they actually changed their minds between Wednesday night and Thursday night.
- Kevin DraperMarco Scutaro is NOT a bona fide lead off hitter..he is having an incredible start to the season but we all know he wont keep it up over 6 months…he has been getting on base but isnt what i would call a classic lead off man….Those numbers will come down into June/July…you need speed at the top of the order…one thing Scutaro does not possess.
MW: You only need speed at the top pf the order if it can get on base. I’d rather have a .400 on-base guy with average speed than a burner with a .330 obp. This year’s Scoot has certainly been a bona fide lead-off man. Can he keep it up? I wouldn’t bet on it, but right now, he’s doing it.
- MikeHello Mike
The version of the jays this year is strange. If scutaro, hill and lind goes, so do the jays. These players are the true table setters for the jays. So wierd that your number 3 and 4 guys aren’t the ones who play a key role.
All jays minor league affiliates, do they all play under the american league rule, with DH?
MW: Yep.
- francis xMW: You mean 2011 at the bottom there. If he misses 10 weeks this season, that’s 70 days. That would mean he’d have about 100 days this season, 131 overall counting last year. That would put him right on the bubble. Two years and 31 days gives a player LESS THAN NO chance of being a Super 2, if that’s possible.
Yes I did mean 2011.
But he wont have only 2 years and 31 days fo service if he misses 10 weeks.
If he comes back after 10 weeks he will be up by the end of July. Thus by the end of this year he would have accumulated 96 days of service for his career. Assuming he plays through 2010 and 2011 he would have 2 years and 96 days of service. I don’t think that makes it no chance I think its very possible.
MW: No, two years and 31 days was in reference to your contention that Snider could have been a Super 2 had he been up all season this year.
- Nick "The Greek"Hey Mike
#58
MW – “Lost in all this is the fact that the Jays scored one run last night”
Don’t look now, but Doc just threw 7 innings of shutout ball.
Of course both points are silly really, because Cito doesn’t have a crystal ball to tell him when the offense will score just one run or when Doc will throw a shutout. He does however have a schedule which allows him to see when key series will be played against contenders.
Doc shouldn’t be missing back to back series against the BoSox, but thats just my opinion. I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one.
thanks,
MW: Agree to disagree! I love it!
- rickOK so i read about how Rios has saved this team alot of runs ? lol
talk about drawing at straws….Rios is a decent outfielder with a good arm….his defense hasnt won him any accolades…why are people afraid to say this guy has been lousy this year….all the numbers support what were seeing on the field….He would be getting trashed in alot of other cities but here we have to coddle guys that arent getting it done for us ? i dont get that….his basic defensive work isnt a reason to not criticize his lacklustre hitting…
MW: He hasn’t gotten any defensive accolades? Does that mean he hasn’t won a Gold Glove? Because he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, if not the best.
- MikeThe reason why Overbay will start facing lefties is because Millar will become the full time DH. But, like you said Inglett is not great against lefties.
MW: I don’t think Millar will be the full-time DH.
- DomenickShame on Inglett for going down looking in that situation.
Unforgivable.
Also, shame on Fox for cancelling Terminator, the best show on TV.
Disgraceful.
MW: That was a beautiful pitch.
- AlanMW: Correct – except you might need to go to the dentist.
What does this mean? I don’t get it.
MW: You said May 2th.
Nice job. Hilarious. “May tooth” is fine thank you. May 2nd … oops.
- T from NYWow. They stunk against what has been to this point of the season, a very hittable pitcher. Doc was amazing as usual. Lets hope they get it going tomorrow. Atleast they are still in first place.
- DomenickI am disappointed in you, Mike.
I heard you say that if Halladay had pitched in Boston, he would have had to pitch a shutout.
Shame on you for falling for the “fallacy of the predetermined outcome”. If Halladay pitches the last game in Boston, a completely different game is played. If Lester is facing Doc, he pitches much differently that facing Ray because he knows he has a margin for error facing Ray and he knows if he gives up 1 run against Doc, the game could be over.
Nobody knows how many runs the Jays would have scored if Doc pitched.
MW: It’s true. Had Halladay started, a different space-time continuum would have been created, and the results aren’t transferable. I was just pointing out that starting Halladay doesn’t guarantee a win – see tonight.
- AlexHi! Hitting is contagious. They just need to pull themselves together,.
And I hope it can’t be true that Halladay will not appear in the next Boston series? That would be disappointing.
MW: It’s true.
- BarbHanley Ramirez >> Derek Jeter in his prime has raised quite a few eyebrows amongst my friends. Now I know it’s VERY early, but do you think H.Ramirez has the potential to be the greatest shortstop of all-time?
And since Jays aren’t winning I’d like you to know your opinion on Webb v Peavy debate. If you had to pick one who would it be?
MW: Hanley Ramirez has the potential to be very, very good. If I had to pick one? Good question.
- Beburgmike, it was not a team loss tonight. the reason fans are criticizing rios and wells is because every other hitter at some point this season was hot, even poor snider. but rios and wells have never gotten hot at any point so now when lind, hill, scut are now cold, rios and wells are still giving you nothing.
as I said last week, I am worried that this offense was a mirage and the jays will revert back to last years team. 8 of last 10 jays have scored 3 or less runs. this season 16/45 have been 3 or less and they have gone 3-13 in those games. this is a team that has had long losing streaks last 2 seasons. you get a sense it is going to happen again.
MW: The thing is, last year’s team was only an abysmal failure offensively for 1/3 of the season – April and June, that’s it. The other four months it was the best team in the league. So what you’re really worried about is that they’ll revert to their lowest point of last season, which they have done over the past four games. The key thing here is – it’s OVER THE LAST FOUR GAMES. And they’re still in first place. Patience is something that doesn’t exist in a sports fan, I know, but it’s required. As for the Wells/Rios thing, to blame the loss specifically on the two of them is ludicrous. The team was shut out. To say neither of them have gotten hot at any point isn’t factual, either – Rios has been cold the last two games, but the 20 games before that he hit .317/.374/.537. Wells hasn’t really gotten hot yet, it’s true, but on May 2nd (2th?) he was hitting .287/.350/.463.
- pablo2 problems with cito tonight, why was inglett pinch hitting instead of millar? second was why does he keep using carlson in these high leverage situations when the best reliever has been frasor? and certain times you need a ko and so frasor would be better option yet never gets used.
MW: 1 – Because Millar hits right-handed and Inglett doesn’t. 2 – Because it’s usually to face a run of lefties, or at least more lefties than righties coming up.
- pabloMay 2th.
Good grief.
- James (from the Church of the Double Steal)Mike
He’s Still the most overpaid #4 hitter in the history of the game…….maybe it’s time he was called out………….drop him to 8 or 9 for a few games, we need runs, runs to be belted in by the so-called “clean-up man”…
in any other city he would be…
Despite VW the Jays will get back on track tomorrow.
MW: Called out? What does that mean? You want people to start saying “Vernon Wells has to start producing!” Aren’t they saying that?
- Greg QMW: Delgado is a borderline Hall of Famer, so Snider would be running in some pretty fast company. As for your knock on his defense, what have you been watching?
First point – almost every respected baseball publication has Snider in the top 7 – so I’m probably wrong but I just don’t see him on that level because I simply don’t believe in top hitting prospects that aren’t remarkable at making contact, hitting home runs or taking walks.
Defensively I admit he looks good so far – and his stats (zone rating) are good, but outfielders without great wheels or cannons for arms usually don’t bring much defensive value in the long run.
Personally I like at least 5 guys as better hitting prospects than Snider:
Matt Wieters, Lars Anderson, Logan Morrison, Justin Smoak, and Carlos Santana.
MW: Time will tell.
- Jim MaronWow. Wasting a Halladay start like that is just wrong. Actually, it’s kinda sad. What the heck time did the Jays flight get in from Boston? Just brutal.
Jordan Bastian seemed to indicate on his Twitter that the Jays had a closed clubhouse players meeting before the game. If that’s true who would’ve called it and why? It obviously didn’t help any and maybe even made things worse, judging by tonights poor offensive performance.
MW: I don’t know who would have called it, but the why should seem pretty obvious, after they had just been swept.
- McLovinMW: No, two years and 31 days was in reference to your contention that Snider could have been a Super 2 had he been up all season this year.
That I agree with and there is virtually no chance…
My contention is that even with a 10 week stay in the minors, its still likely that he will become a super 2 in the 2011. (barring another trip to the minors in 2010 or 2011)
MW: Just the fact that you think there’s only “virtually” no chance of becoming a Super 2 with two years and 31 days shows why you disagree with me on the next point.
- Nick "The Greek"Hi Mike, Keith Law recently wrote that he didn’t think Casey Janssen would contribute much to the Jays’ rotation because “Even pre-injury, he didn’t have any kind of out pitch – just an extreme strike-thrower (good) but he’ll put a lot of balls in play.”
I remember having a lot of confidence in him when he played, but don’t remember much about his repertoire. Does have about the same stuff post surgery as pre? What are your thoughts?
MW: My thoughts are that he was one of the best relievers in the game in 2007, so if he did that without “any kind of out pitch”, more power to him.
- Ericin each of the last 4 games that jays have scored in the first 6 innings a grand total of……1 run
in 6/7 last games the jays have scored in the first 6 innings a grand total of…..3 runs
36 innings 3 runs
the jays who were once #1 in runs/game have now dropped to 6th in the AL and falling fast.
it doesn’t matter how good you think this offense is, it’s all relative and the jays are showing they are just an average offense
MW: I continue to be amazed that you can give so much weight to four games and so little to the other 43.
- pabloMike, with the Jays really struggling with the bats now, and with them having to face Lowe and Jurrjens in the final two games of this Atlanta series, what are the chances that this ends up a 2-7 roadtrip? It seems that this roadtrip will quickly claim much of what the Jays worked hard to earn the first 6 weeks. Real shame.
Do you buy into this Cito theory that Wakefield can send teams into a hitting slump days after he has pitched against them? Seems far fetched to me but I respect Cito’s baseball acumen and I want to know what you think. Could there be any statistical support for this phenomenon?
MW: There could be, but someone is going to have to go out and do the research. There’s a chance it winds up a 2-7 road trip, but even if it does, they’re still in very good shape and far ahead of where most believed they’d be.
- McLovinI had hoped to post this on you blog entry about tonight’s Atlanta game, but I’ll post it here.
I wanted to react to that caller near the end of the Jays Talk that was dumping on Overbay. I knew there was no sense calling in because it was already about 10:50 and I’d never get on.
I posted this last night on my blog, but as of the end of the Boston series, Overbay is absolutely the best guy to have at the plate with runners in scoring position and two out. He has 11 2-out RBI and only 8 runners left in scoring position with 2-out (RLSP2O). No one else on the team has more 2-out RBIs than RLSP2O.
MW: That guy was an idiot. Lyle Overbay is a very, very good hitter, but people don’t like him because he doesn’t hit home runs.
- Alan the stat geekOne other observation. Since the start of the Oakland series (May 8), Vernon has come to the plate with 35 runners on base and has no RBIs. I suppose if Francona can give Ortiz 8 weeks, Cito can give Vernon quite a bit more time.
- Alan the stat geekHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHA
“MW: This may have been the most ridiculous comment I’ve come across here for a while.”
good for you for not dealing with that Rubbish.
One question though… its clear we need a “scary” power bat in our lineup. Anyone who says we have one doesn’t see how our top guys get pitched in comparison to other top guys in the league. We have many very good hitters… but in our division that wont cut it. Who is available as an OF/DH on a team that may be looking to squirm away from some contract money as the all star break looms closer?
I’m not looking to trade the farm, but we clearly have some depth in our system right now, and opportunities to make a run at the playoffs (like we have this year) have been few and far…. urrrhhh…. not even achievable lately.
I want roy to pitch in a meaningful game…. and not the “were only 5 games back with 10 to go” meaningful.
So what bats could be available…. not who would YOU go after…. but who are the possibilities? there are a few every year.
MW: Travis Snider will probably wind up being the best one.
- BCMichael,
In the past any struggles Rios has had at the plate I’ve never been too worried about because of the value he also brings with his speed and defense.
Rios stole 32 bags last year and was caught only 8 times. So far this year he only has 3 steals. Do you think this is a product of him just not being on base enough or a team philosophy?
Also, have you noticed any drop off with Rios’ defense? To my eyes, his throwing especially, there has been a drop off since last year.
MW: I think there has been a drop-off with his throwing accuracy, but not much else. I’m not sure why he’s not stealing more, to be honest. I’d have thought he’d try to go a bit more – maybe it’s a product of how well the offense had been doing overall.
- Uncle BenHi Mike,
A 4 game losing streak, the first slump of the year. Bound to happen as it is to all teams. We could lose another 9 in a row and still be .500 which would have exceeded most expectations at the beginning of the year. I think the year is just going to get more interesting. Fans have been waiting for the return of the “saviour” Casey Janssen for more than a year and let’s see if Romero’s early outings were a fluke or not.
I’d have loved to have heard the conversation between Snider, Cecil and Ray on the trip back to Las Vegas.
- OzRobHello Mike
Unlike a lot of people, I am more worried about Jays hitting than their pitching. Their pitching, as you said, will only get better, but the hitting… well, will slow down somewhat. Let’s hope we do not have a repeat of two years ago, where the hitting was good in April to mid May, then ii just died for the rest of the season. I know, I know, it is still early.. and I am hoping this is just a glitch.
Mike, what is happening to Carlson. He has been rocked the last three times he went out there. Home runs againts the Yankees and Whitesox, now a double againts the Braves that resulted in a loss. He has not managed to keep opponents at bay.
Francis
MW: He hasn’t been rocked any of the last times he’s been out there, he just hasn’t been good.
- francis xMike,
Why are you such an eternal apologist for Rios and Wells? The media in this city are so soft on these guys it’s ridiculous.
MW: I’m not an eternal apologist for either one of them. But I’m not going to listen to people who say that they “suck” or are “awful” or “useless”. See, there’s a difference between realistic – and saying that Wells is going through a big-time slump right now and that Rios had a rough April – and being an idiot. Unfortunately, the ones who aren’t the knee-jerkers are seen as apologists by those who are.
- JakeI think it’s really disappointing to see Halladay have to leave the game for a pinch hitter. He could have easily made it through another inning. I know it’s a move that any manager would have made because of the situation, but it just plain sucks (especially because I think Halladay could have struck out too).
When I turned on the game and heard it was raining I was really hoping it would continue. If it would have been postponed and Halladay pitched on Saturday then he would start off the Boson series Friday night.
The bats just looked very disappointing tonight. They seemed to bring back memories of the early part of last season when it Halladay had something like 4 complete games I think and lost 3 of them or something like that. I hope this hitting trend isn’t what we see for the rest of season. I think it is just a slump, but it is really frustrating to watch the Jays make the other pitcher look like a Cy Young award winner especially when Kawakami came into the game with an era of 5.73.
What do you think about intentionally walking Kotchman with the runner on third and one out to set up the double play for Anderson? Anderson is not the same hitter he was with the Angels. By doing this you would get a favourable lefty on lefty matchup to hopefully end the inning. Although if he hits that fly ball like he did the run scores anyways and your still pitching with 2 out and a runner on first. If only the Jays were home, that way they don’t have to pinch hit for Halladay in the eighth and he’s still in the game.
MW: If they were at home with the DH, it’s all true. I don’t like the idea of walking Kotchman, because you have the lefty-lefty match-up with him and you don’ put an extra potential run on base, at the very least.
- SamMike
It’s too early in the season to be starting Doc on short rest.However, holding him out one start in order to face Boston on friday may not be a bad idea.I know he’s big on his routine but given the chance I think Roy would adjust things to pitch at home against the Red Sox.He logs alot of innings and a breather for a start may well pay off later in the year.He’s a true ace, ultimate professional and understands his role.He would rather sit out a start and pitch in a big game rather than watch it from the dugout.
If the Jays could get Nick Johnson for a reliever and maybe a minor leager..you got to go get him.He would be a great dh,play Lind in left and let Travis get everyday playing time in Vegas.
MW: Snider is already getting everyday playing time in Vegas, but yes, Johnson would be a great get.
- TerryMike,
I don’t understand how Joe Inglett is an upgrade from Travis Snider. After watching his “less-than stellar” pinch hitting performance last night, I am even more convinced of that. Also, given the fact that Jesse Carlson’s last 3 appearances have been pretty crappy, do you think a trip to Las Vegas is in order for him?
MW: It’s not that Inglett is so much of an upgrade on Snider as that Snider needs regular work and to get his swing back. Inglett, though, is definitely an improvement on what Snider has been doing the last five weeks.
- Bernard SinghOk Mike, seriously. The most frustrating thing about this ball club are the headscratchers they lose when other teams help them with Boston that night. How many times over the last few years have they blown saves on a night when the Red Sox lost?
Last night was another prime example of why this ball club just can’t have it. They waste a gem by Roy and can’t even score one lousy run with some great chances to do so. A lousy run that tattoo-head, Carelson came on and meekly gave up an inning before.
Why can’t this team RARELY accept the help Red Sox opponents are trying to give them? For once Mike, take advantage of a gift from Boston? Overbay with two hits in the game except when it counted and Rios and Wells are a gawd awful pair to have to pin your hopes on in a do or die situation. I don’t care what you say about them. It’s your job and I understand that. I don’t fault you for that. But there is no way in hell that you are getting me to like these two. No way in H double hockey sticks. I’ve had it with Wells and Rios hurting this ball club. I’ve absolutely had it. I don’t think they could hurt the Jays more if they tried – these two.
The Jays can’t have it Mike, because they don’t get it. 5 runs in the last 4 very important games?? 1 timely run, Mike. That’s all that was asked of them. A team that can almost score at will, cannot come up with a single run – the minimum, Mike, to win a HUGE ball game. That’s a kind a team that I can’t get excited about. Bah humbug to Wells and Rios.
MW: I have never understood this, and you’ve made this argument many times. Whether the Red Sox win or lose, or the Yankees, or whoever, has no bearing on the “quality” of a Jays win or loss.
- VitoFrom HamiltonHey Mike
The analysis from the fans on way Boston swept the Jays is quite amusing. “they lack heart” or “they were freaked out” or “lack of focus”, what about just tipping your cap to the Red Sox for outplaying Toronto. Its nice to see the fans excited again and but Boston is clearly a better team. The expectations are high in T.O right now, but watch out Mike…. When the Bosox, Yanks and Rays pass the Jays in the standings in June or July you are going to field some crazy calls on the post game show.
thanks,
MW: It has started already. But I don’t think the Jays are going to go into freefall.
- rickIan from Whitby: “It was nice to see that you used my Delgado/Snider comparison of a previous post.”
Roy Halladay is good!
If you restate this on air, I call dibs!
- Stevie H.I’ve always wondered why Scott Downs is called snakeface? Please explain Mike?
MW: Look back in the archives to April ’08.
- OzMW: Just the fact that you think there’s only “virtually” no chance of becoming a Super 2 with two years and 31 days shows why you disagree with me on the next point
Even with a 10 week stay in the minors this year he will still accumulate 140 days of service. If he plays the WHOLE season in the MLB in 2010 AND 2011, he will accumulate 2 years an 140 days of service going into the 2011 offseason, making him more than likely to become a Super 2. Correct???
MW: No. With a 10-week stay in the minor leagues, he’ll accumulate approximately 100 days of service this year and he had 31 days last year. The difference between 1.131 and 1.140 is huge, and puts him right on the bubble.
- Nick "The Greek"MW: He hasn’t gotten any defensive accolades? Does that mean he hasn’t won a Gold Glove? Because he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, if not the best.
one of the best?? maybe, but not in my opinion. maybe good and above average but not one of the best. however stretching it to say ‘if not the best’ is downright sad. there are a lot of amazing outfielders in the majors, i won’t even begin naming names.
but i am nit-picking, i love most of what you say mike, and I don’t often comment because everything is usually covered so well by you and by your faithful blog posters by the time i read through everything. keep it up!
MW: I trust the numbers of the stats folk more than your opinion, I’m afraid, and most defensive metrics suggest that Rios is one of the best defensive rightfielders in the game, if not the best.
- lennyHi Mike,
I’m not sure why, so far, no caller or poster has mentioned the terrible state of Rogers Centre as a possible reason for the team’s poor attendance.
I have been to 3 games in the past year. In all 3 games, I have had an obstructed view from my seat. There was some part of the field I could not see. These were not the EL Cheapo seats either, but middle of the line seats.
When the Jays were in Vogue and dominant in the early 90′s this was accepted but I’m sure by now that enough fans have already given up on visiting the RC and actually “seeing” a game.
MW: Obstructed view? Unless you’re in the outfield and can’t see an outfield corner, I didn’t think there were any obstructed view seats.
- OBPloverMike
Yesterday, Millar struck out swinging in the ninth inning. The day before, Inglet struck out looking.
This is the thing I don’t get and can you explain the hitter’s logic?
It is the ninth inning, your team is trailing, your team is at bat, two outs. As the last hitter with two strike count, why would you not swing at any balls close to the plate? What is the logic behind that thinking? The philosophy of ‘looking for your pitch’ doesn’t work when there are two strikes againts you and you are the last person batting
Francis x
MW: Inglett got fooled on a fantastic curveball – it froze him. It happens, because he’s a human being. Neither of them was hitting in the ninth inning with two out. Millar struck out on a ball that was not close to being a strike.
- francis xalex rios is a below average ball player
MW: By no measure is Alex Rios a below average baseball player.
- Jamie Adamsdo you believe the rays have a legitmitate chance at the AL East this year? Do you think they will come out on top, and do deep into the playoffs?
MW: I think the Rays have less of a chance at the division than the Red Sox and Yankees. I don’t think they’ll come out of top, or do deep into the playoffs.
- TheSunkenZealotsry for the ‘do deep’ in the last comment
i meant go deep
MW: I know. I couldn’t help myself.
- TheSunkenZealot