1:20 AM Eastern
OK, so the Royals had more than two hits, but otherwise it was pretty much a mirror-image of Monday night’s affair that had the Chicken Littles diving off the bandwagon looking for cover.
Seriously, a baseball season is a LONG one. The best teams will lose at least a third of their games, so you can’t take every loss as though it’s the end of the world. A team that wins three out of five, every time, will make the playoffs. That also means they’ll lose two out of every five. It doesn’t mean it’s all over when the Jays lose a game – heck, they still haven’t lost two in a row.
I understand that most people believed that the second of the first two in a row would happen tonight, and I understand that most Jays fans believe that the Jays will lose their next two, what with facing Zack Greinke tomorrow night and with Brian Burres scheduled to start Thursday afternoon, but it might not happen. In fact, neither of the actual games may happen- there’s an ugly weather forecast for KC the next couple of days. But even if the Jays do lose both, please don’t pull the chute on your enjoyment of this team for the rest of the summer.
As amazing as it sounds, Scott Richmond has been the saving grace of the Jays’ starting rotation so far this season. Who would have thought two months ago that he and Ricky Romero would combine to go 5-0 in the month of April? Richmond seemingly gets better every time out.
Tonight he really helped himself with a great play to throw out Mike Aviles at third on Coco Crisp’s 3rd-inning bunt, when it was still a 1-0 game. Then, after getting David DeJesus on a comebacker, he knew to bypass the lefty Mark Teahen in favour of the right-handed hitting Jose Guillen, who was completely overmatched in each of his three trips against Richmond tonight.
You can get lit up by lefties if you absolutely destroy righties, or so Richmond is teaching us. On that note, left-handed hitters hit .267/.389/.333 against Richmond tonight, which isn’t awful, but isn’t good at all. The righties? Par for the course – .111/.111/.111. And this time, Richmond faced six lefties and three righties and still put up a great line.
Lyle Overbay showed once again that he has the best arm of any first baseman in the game, and a better arm than a lot of right fielders, throwing out DeJesus at third to complete a 4-3-5 double play in the first.
Poor Vernon Wells went 3-for-5 with three RBIs, and would have had a fourth hit but for a great catch by Crisp at the wall in right-centre. Yes, Wells is miscast as a clean-up hitter, and no, he’ll never have a high enough on-base to be one of the elite hitters in the game, but the constant chirping about how bad he is has to stop.
I loved seeing that Tony Fernandez-esque fake-bunt-slap-hit by Marco Scutaro in the 8th. The man has phenomenal bat control. His emergence almost rivals Richmond’s for the most pleasant surprise on the Jays so far this year.
Two editions of The JaysTalk for your listening pleasure tonight! First, the pre-pre-game:
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And the regular edition – shorter than usual tonight:
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With the Red Sox and Cardinals losing, the Jays once again have the best record in all of Major League Baseball. Believe it or not, I’m starting to think that this Jays team may actually have a legit shot at the wild card, but I really don’t want to speak to soon. Let’s see how they can do until Ricky Romero, Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch come back over the next 2-5 weeks, and then let’s see if Romero and Richmond can keep it up, if Janssen can get back into his 2007 form, and if Litsch is really for real. It’s a long season, and it’s going to take a long time to figure out just how good this Jays team can be.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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1. I have to point out that the Chag Sameach shout-out brought a smile to my face, even if it dragged out a bit too long.
2. Just wanted to let you know something – the Jays lost a series in 1993. They lost 3/4 to the Brewers.
3. Aaron Hill continues to look really shaky in the field.
MW: 2 – So it must have been the ’92 team that didn’t lose a series. 3 – No, he doesn’t.
- AriRainout would be nice to push Tallet back a day, skip Burres and let the Doctor go on normal rest.
Zack Grienke’s bubble has to burst sometime.
MW: Yup.
- Ken Paganscott richmond is the righty version of cliff lee..they both have similar pitches and faces
- jphey mike, i am always on the wagon, i dont jump on and off, if i could make a case, i would make a great case for being the biggest jays fan alive. I own 5 plus jerseys, and have a rotation for all home games, my next is a snider white jersey, and all i do is spend all 162 night either watching live, on tv, or on radio if out with friends (lol). Nonetheless, its an addiction thats well worth it, what with no other teams in Toronto winning anything significant in the past.
All those prognosticators saying the jays are behind the leafs, and raps with regards to championship hopefulls during this spring on the fan 590 are way off base, and i see the jays winning sooner then the leafs or raps in the future.
Also, Mike, look back in the first few days of the season if not spring training. I told you (on the blog), we face no good starting staffs based on past results and if our pitching holds up we could be .700+ in winning percentage before we face the yanks on the 12th of may… I am GOD (jokes)…
- paoloMW: You’re very upset because I pointed out a grammatical error you made? Why would you take something like that as a personal affront? If you don’t want people to point out those kinds of mistakes, don’t make them.
Wow, this is from a guy who says “Thursday’s game was different than Tuesday’s”.
Things are different “from” each other…..but better or worse “than” other things. Different is not a comparative adjective.
MW: And I appreciate the correction. See? I don’t get upset about it.
- KenHey mike-I know your feelings on how little managers make a difference but does it not seem that cito Is the difference maker this Team has needed for a long time? After all the record speaks for itself.
MW: Does it?
- ryanMW: I think that when hitters can’t get good swings on a pitcher, that pitcher often deserves far more credit than that. That’s the flaw in BABIP.
BABIP is a measure of luck not skill. Bruce Chen, Josh Towers, Greg Maddux, and Roger Clemens all have the same career BABIP. Great pitchers do not have any more ability than lousy pitchers to control their BABIP. Great pitchers are great because of their K-rates, BB-rates, HR-rates, and strand rates reflecting their ability to get key strikeouts at the appropriate times. They are no better or worse than other pitchers when it comes to BABIP.
MW: But aren’t there experts out there who believe that BABIP has predictive value?
- KenHi Mike,
Back in ’06 (I think?) how close was JP Riccardi to trading Rios to the Giants for Tim Linsecum?
MW: That depends on whether or not Brian Sabean was actually serious about trading Lincecum back in 2007. There are those who believe that Sabean’s intent the whole thing in dangling Lincecum was to switch up at the last minute to Matt Cain and get the Jays to make the deal anyway. Regardless, the deal was on the table for at least a week before Sabean went and signed Aaron Rowand.
- BrentMW: I’ll wager Wells had the better career OPS of the two, despite Soriano’s 40-40ness.
OPS from 2002 to 2006:
Soriano – 879, 863, 808, 821, 911 = 857
Wells – 762, 909, 809, 783, 899 = 832
Oops.
MW: Probably oops, but not necessarily. You can’t just add up the numbers and divide by five.
- KenI remember I asked you a few weeks back who you thought would be demoted first, Richmond or Romero. I feel pretty stupid now for asking that, and it is a great example of how crazy a baseball season can be. What a great story Richmond has been so far, and hopefully Romero will be back soon to help the team.
What do you think happens if the Jays win something like 88 games, but still miss the playoffs. Does JP stick around with a new president in place? It is pretty hard to argue with the fact that he has put together a good team. Would that matter to a new president, or do they typically want to hire their own guy?
MW: They usually want to work with someone with whom they’re comfortable, but it depends on who comes in.
- BrettMW: With Wells, one correction – those are the numbers when he puts the first pitch in play, not when he just swings at the first pitch. But it shows you why he does it.
Everybody has a much higher average on balls they put in play on any pitch. A strike-out becomes an impossibility. The major league average for balls in play is .300 and this doesn’t include HRs. I seriously doubt that there is any difference in Well’s BA on the first, second, third, or whatever pitch (until he gets two strikes on him). You need to compare his BA on the first pitch to other pitches before you can begin to draw any conclusions. Well’s average last season on all balls put into play was .342.
“Wells 3 yr ops when swinging at the first pitch and he indeed has a .937 ops which is 123 pts better than his overall ops. I checked out some other Jays and Rios is actually 191 pts better swinging at the first pitch and Overbay is +117 and Bautista +94. The average of the 10 Blue Jays I looked at was about 65 pts above their overall ops.”
This is simply due to the fact that you can’t strike-out when swinging at the first pitch. Most players have an OPS between .070 and .100 higher with zero or one strike counts. And an OPS about .150 lower on two-strike counts. Obviously for Rios the count would appear to make more difference than for most players so maybe in his case hit pays for him to put the ball in play before he gets two strikes on him.
MW: Don’t forget – you can’t walk when you put the first pitch in play, and that knocks your OPS down quite a bit. By the way, Wells hits .333 for his career when he puts the second pitch in play, .264 on the third.
- KenI enjoy the optimism, Mike. It’s good to see. I’m starting to share a little more of it, but I still see this season as primarily a building year and perhaps a bit of a preview of the next couple of years.
15-7 is sweet, although the last AL East team to sit at 15-7 on April 29th was the 2005 edition of the Orioles. So I’ll keep the enthusiasm dial down a bit at least for another month.
In any case, it’s great to see Richmond continuing to perform well. He’s reminding me a bit of Pat Hentgen right now… A big, unassuming kind of guy who just attacks hitters. More guile than stuff, perhaps. Big drop on the curveball, too… although Hentgen was a lot harder on LHB.
MW: And a lot less big.
- George SandFor the Jays to contend for a wild card I think more than anything they can do it depends on the Rays and Yankees. If the Rays can’t turn it around and the Yankees ‘pen continues to be unspeakably bad they may only have to win 90 games to get the wild card, especially with the West and Central being so mediocre.
MW: A major reason why I believe the Jays may have that legit shot at the wild card.
- Colinwith scutaro being not a surprise this year but even last year (even though hes better this year) do you think the Jays should keep him as their starting ss whenever he is a fa? and its nice to see barajas picking up the bat with most of the other guys.
thanks
MW: Depending on how the last five months of the season go for Scutaro, I wouldn’t necessarily mind then bringing him back. Problem is, if he keeps this up, he likely asks for silly money or silly term, or both.
- nickMike, How about Scott Richmond? What a great story. Now who in their right mind would rather see a washed-up Byrd or Pedro out their instead of a 29 year old hard working Canadian? I don’t know.
I do hope the weather improves as I would love to see the MLB’s best offense face off against the MLB’s best pitcher, Zack Greinke. Greinke has yet to face a team with the offensive power of the Jays and the Jays have beaten all Greinke’s previous opponents (CWS, DET, CLE, TEX) which does not mean a lot but hopefully the Jays can get at least an earned run off of him which is something that has yet to be accomplished. It should be an interesting battle especially with the versatile Tallet on the mound.
If the Jays can get runs off of Greinke and manage to come away with the win I think we may be able to look back on this game as a starting point where fans, the media, and other mlb teams started to take the Jays seriously and give them the respect they deserve.
MW: I wouldn’t go that far.
- Josh“Yes, Wells is miscast as a clean-up hitter, and no, he’ll never have a high enough on-base to be one of the elite hitters in the game, but the constant chirping about how bad he is has to stop.” Can we please still chirp about Wells… Its FUN!
MW: Nah. Not here, at least.
- JayManMike, If the Jays are going to lose, I dont mind them losing big like the other night. At least it wasnt a heart breaker in extra innings those can take their toll.
The question is how good can Scott Richmond be? The more you watch the more you realize he has good stuff, with pretty good command. He seems to have a knack for pitching too. He knows when to pitch around a guy, seems to really stick to a gameplan.
Is he still eligible for Rookie of the year? I know NHL has an age restriction but does the MLB?
MW: There’s no age restriction on any award in MLB. Richmond’s eligible, but he’ll have to fight off Romero and Snider to get it.
- DennisHey Mike-Good points as usual.Imagine that they are doing this with the worst 3-4 hitters in baseball and the worst Gm.It’s time to give J.P. some props for assembling this team with their great bullpen,good young arms,great defense and some decent reclamation projects.As far as the Vernon contract-how many of these J.P. bashers would have been all over him at the time if he let him walk.They should have a look at Brian Cashman’s transactions with the Yankees and be grateful that the Jays have J.P.
- Dennis SHello Mike
I have to admit, when Richmond joined the Jays last year, I wasn’t too impressed. At that time, I didn’t think he was better than a 5th starter, surrending at least 3 runs no matter how deep in the game he went.
But this year is another story. I was impressed with Richmond’s last two starts. He seemed to be more focused, mixed his pitches well.
The funny thing is – I can’t figure what he did differently this year. Can you provide an explanation for his success
Too funny, everyone is afraid of seeing Burris pitch, including you.
Francis
MW: Yeah, it is funny, especially since he’s not THAT bad. Richmond is stronger and has been through a real big-league spring training. It’s really been his first opportunity to be around elite baseball players, and he’s learning. I thought he was pretty focused last year, though.
- FrancisEveryone is really starting to beleive in a wild card spot. Even Darren Fletcher is scoreboard watching in April. I love it!
I like Richmond’s approach to the game and to each hitter. He is extremely serious on and off the mound and attacks the strike zone just like the best pitcher in baseball. Speaking of Halladay, I think having him around these rookie pitchers has had a really impact. If Arnsberg and Halladay ever started a pitching school they would likely supply half the majors with their starting rotation.
- Mike MississaugaMW: (Marco Scutaro’s) emergence almost rivals Richmond’s for the most pleasant surprise on the Jays so far this year.
Actually I thought he was pretty good last year…
The team has played wonderfully well and I’m thrilled. But I still think we need pitching help from outside as soon as it’s possible to get it. Politically it’s an interesting situation for management. This April has been the best start for years and years. The team might have a legit crack at the post-season. But the pitchers are young and inexperienced. Part of their success has to be down to lack of scouting data yet. The club might not have the stamina to go the distance, but the fans are hungry and want some return for years of support. Does management stay the course and keep their hands in their pockets until next year? Or do they give the fans their way and deal for pitching support? If they do, they will have to give up some blue chip prospects.
MW: They won’t. And Scutaro was fine last year, but pretty good is a reach. Solid on D, worst OPS among the regulars on a team that disappointed offensively.
- isabella reyesI think your admiration for Lyle Overbay has clouded your judgement. It was most evident last Saturday when you declared him the best Blue Jay hitter. You based your assessment on his (and the others) OPS for this year.
Normally, when callers provide a harsh assessment or express excessive adulation for a particular player, you wisely notice the supporting details for their key message is usually based on a small sample set of data. After noting the issue with their supporting details, you proceed to expand the sample data set by bringing career stats or stats from the past few seasons in order to bring a different perspective. Even if one doesn’t agree with the perspective, it can’t be ignored because of the strength of the supporting details.
With Lyle Overbay, I believe you have made the same mistake as some of your callers. You have relied on a small sample set of at bats for your stats. Furthermore, the stats are heavily skewed by five intentional walks.
Never the less, it is good to see Lyle Overbay having a good season. His overalls stats seem to be improving as he puts his previous injury behind him. However, his stats against left handed pitchers is a real reason to be concerned about his age.
Hopefully, platooning him will make this a non-issue for the next few years.
MW:His stats against lefties (are) reason to be concerned about his age? Forgetting about your sample size argument – he’s only had 10 at-bats against lefties – he didn’t hit lefties well when he was in his 20s, either. As for that sample size argument, the caller wanted to know who the Jays’ best hitter had been THIS YEAR.
- Mark BryskiI like to listen to Jerry Howarth, otherwise I might not be a fan.
Coco Crisp is a great name! He is a good fielder. But can he last? He plays so hard. ?? I would hear his name in post season radio, with Joe Morgan .
MW: You have, many times, when he played with the Red Sox.
- barbiMW,
Most of the blog comments are about hitting and pitching but I think the Jay’s defense deserves more credit. I believe they are the best in the AL right now. And, it was incredibly exciting last night to see that Hill to Overbay to Rolen double play. With a defense like this behind them it should encourage our young pitchers to attack opposing batters.
MW: Anyone who wants to highlight the defense is always welcome to do so.
- GeorgeHey Mike,
If one of the next two games gets rained out, does Burres get bumped?? And if both games are rained out, do you bump both Burres and Purcey the way he has been pitching?
MW: Yes, and though the second question is now moot, yes.
- Matthew FabbricinoHi Mike,
I gotta say that I am not a big Richmond fan but he is certainly growing on me. I have one question about the rotation. What happened to Matt Clement? Didn’t he agree to stay after he was sent to the minor league camp? I haven’t heard anything about him since the spring and his experience and talent would definitely be an improvement over Burres. Is there really no one better than Burres in the system?
MW: There’s no one better the Jays are comfortable using at the moment. Clement did agree to stay, but retired a few days later.
- Andrew ClarkNice to see you coming around Mike. The Jays are for real – the fact that they are 15-7 with a +40 run differential despite the loss of so many pitchers suggests a very good and deep team.
Heck if they were in the Central they would have been in the playoffs last year and likely walk away with the division this year.
MW: That’s true, but the first part depends on your definition of “for real”. They’re not this good.
- Jim MaronOne more win in the month of April & they’ll have the target, 16! I remember Eric Hinske oonce saying “if we win 16 games every month – we make the playoffs”. Which is so true 16 times 6 is 96 wins. Next month they have 29 games, so 16-13 is definately doable.
I’m excited for this team, I can’t wait to head down on Friday to ssee Halladay pitch againt whoever & on Sunday see Richmond take on Mr Horrible himself, Adam Eaton.
Lastly, what are the odds that Romero, who plays catch for the first time today, miraculously comes off the DL when he’s eligible on May 5th so that Burres doesn’t start, since he’s scheduled to on that day.
MW: They’re not good.
- PaulForget the playoffs. Let’s see if Jays can play some meaningful games in September first. Let’s put 92 as the no. of wins needed to clinch the WC. I am not sure how many games Jays will play in september and october but let’s assume they’ll play 30. They’ve already played 22 so they’ll play 110 from now to August 31st. Let’s hope they go 60-50 which will bring their tally to 75-57 till august 31st. in September they’ll have to go 17-13 to make the playoffs. So it could be said that Jays have set them up beautifully to finally play some meaningful september games.
- BeburgMike i have to say…your comment on the radio and argument with some call in quest that Lyle Overbay has been our best hitter this year was ridiculous! Have you been watching the games or checking the stats in the morning???? Aaron Hill with no question has been our best hitter this year! Yes lyle had a nice batch of games…but Aaron right out of the gate. Avg/Hits/situational hitting etc. Your argument was just that! But start watching the games! If i want a hit on the Bluejays this year…i want Aaron Hill up to bat. He’s hitting/seeing everything!
MW: If I want a guy who’s not going to get out, I want Overbay (against a righty).
- SHAWN COCHRANEThe team is doing well so there is nothing to gripe about, I consider this a developmental season. It doesn’t matter where the team ends up at the end of the year, as long as they get a good idea of where their youth is at and find out what a healthy Wells, Rolen and Overbay can give them over a full season. I’m just watching and enjoying the games day to day. It’s funny, I find myself enjoying it more when I don’t care if the team makes the playoffs or not.
Anyway just a couple quick things. I always thought of Wells as the perfect #5 hitter, is that where you think he’s best utilized with say Snider at 3 and Lind at 4 in the future?
Also a quick peek behind the curtain if you don’t mind. First off it seems to me like you have one of the coolest jobs in the world, but do you ever find it boring or annoying? Also what are your hours like? Do you just show up a couple hours before the game and stay a couple after or is it a specific shift of time day to day regardless of when the game is?
MW: I don’t think they’d put Lind and Snider back-to-back in the middle of the order, it opens them up too much to the LOOGYs. Behind the curtain? I wouldn’t say I ever find the job boring or annoying – occasionally frustrating, for sure, but it is one of the coolest jobs in the world. If the Jays are on the road, I show up a bit before the game, if they’re at home, I’m there about three hours before, and I’m done after the post-game, once I file a voicer. Then I blog at the ballpark or the station or after I get home.
- SmittyMike. Someone on your last posting mentioned Buck Martinez hitting a walk-off homer vs. the Tigers (before it was called a walk-off) in ’85. My memory of Buck from that season was him throwing out Phil Bradley and Gorman Thomas on a broken leg in Seattle. It still may be the most incredible play I’ve ever seen in a baseball game at any level. I even remember the Jays starting pitcher in that game, Tom Filer. As we watch the 2009 Jays go on the run they’re on I recall the 1985 Jays didn’t go into 1st place until May 20th and never relinquished it for the rest of the season, despite the Yankees making a charge at them.
I could on and on about the ’85 Jays, it’s seems like it was yesterday.
MW: It was a great team, the first one is always the most memorable. Jesse Barfield was the one who threw out Bradley and George Bell threw out Thomas, though – Buck just somehow held on to the ball for Bradley, and made an unbelievable play to catch the ball and get Thomas.
- PeterHey Mike,
I, like you, have totally enjoyed the ride so far & there really hasn’t been any glaring “why on earth are they doing ?!” yet.
But I did have a small glimpse of that last night.
Top of the 5th, Rolen doubles and Overbay walks. The Jays are up 5-0 with guys on 1st & 2nd. Why on EARTH is the 8th hitter in our lineup NOT bunting?
Now I do agree with you to an extent that a bunt is basically a free out, but if Barajas would have bunted the guys over to 2nd & 3rd, it gives both Snider and Scutaro a chance to drive in more runs. And since the Jays don’t play a whole lot of “small ball”, I thought it was a perfect time with a 5-0 lead. Instead, Barajas flies out and Snider hits into a DP.
Then in the 8th, same situation! 1st and 2nd, and they got Scutaro bunting!
Why do it in the 8th and not the 5th? Just didn’t get that at all.
Other than that really, how good has Richmond been eh? I mean, after all the slack he took about going to the WBC and not even pitching!
If the starters can continue to keep the Jays in the game come the 5th-6th.. we have a legit shot at the post season.
MW: They didn’t bunt in the 5th with a 5-0 lead because it was the 5th and they had a 5-0 lead. Later in the game, runs become more important, according to a certain school of thought, and thus giving up an out to get an extra one is more the appropriate play. Again, according to a certain school of thought.
- AngeloGood stuff as always Mike,
Perhaps the biggest blessing for the Blue Jays this season is they’ve had a chance to find their footing on offense and most importantly with the young pitching without having to play a game in the AL East until this weekend. I’m hoping that the tougher AL East opponents upcoming will be counterbalanced by the fact that our pitching should be returning just in time.
I’d also like to nominate Jason Frasor for your unofficial most pleasant surprise part.
- BrianRelic! haha. great reference, Mike.
- duncanI replied on one of your blogs earlier that the fans who where so eager to dump on Richmond before he had even thrown a pitch this year could at least give the man the respect of watching him first and allow him the chance to pitch himself on or off of the team. I’m not saying he will pitch like this all year, but who knows, he looks very good right now. You mentioned wild card (much to my surprise). The Jays currently are 8 games over .500. If they only played .500 ball for the rest of the season, they would have 90 wins. Is that enough to win the wild card? I’m not sure, but it sure is fun to think about it! If Aaron Hill plays close to this level for a while longer, he better be given All Star consideration.
MW: If the Jays play .500 ball the rest of the season, they’d finish 85-77.
- Dan from ElmvaleI was reading the updates on si.com (only site my computer can handle) and I saw that Snider had a bunt single in the 8th?
Cito’s comments concerning Tallet and him potentially staying in the rotation is interesting? Depending on how Litsch comes back from the DL, I would put Purcey in the pen in long relief to get things figured out.
The Jays staved off the first threat to their division lead with Boston winning 11 in a row. A 1 game lead in the division, and a good 3 game cushion in the wildcard is great to see.
The way Scutaro and Hill are playing, I think Johnny Mac should put on the catching gear and maybe get a spot start there.
Keep up the good work and I hope the neck is feeling better. Grenke has to allow some runs at some time, so I think the offence is going to help Doc in his Cy Young quest, and not allow Grenke a Cliff Lee like start to the season.
- Aaron KerHi Mike, appreciate Jays talk and this blog a great deal. Question for you, how many more good starts like this before Richmond starts to move up the depth chart of Jays starters? I believe I saw somewhere that you had him behind Doc, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch, Janssen and maybe Romero. Is it realistic that he would ever pass any of those guys or does he become tradeable?
I know that we’re a long, long way away from even having to worry about this but I’m just curious as to how good you think he can be.
MW: I don’t know how good he can be. I’m not sure he does, either. But he’s not a Josh Towers no-stuff type.
- RobI hear your frequent criticism of Cito’s managing (on not pinch hitting), and for the most part, I would have to agree with your more numbers based philosophy. But I gotta say, Cito’s “instilling confidence” thing really is working (right now anyways.) The best example is clearly Marco Scutaro. Seriously, who’d da thunk? He’s playing out of his mind, and it’s been nothing short of awesome to watch. And really, he’s only the most obvious example. His use of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay has worked amazingly well (our combined first base numbers are pretty solid right now), as has his use of (gulp) Jose Bautista. (His numbers are also VERY solid so far…) Maybe his not pinch hitting Snider for him HAS actually helped us win a game down the road (already) via his all around solid play. I hear what you’re saying, that long term, it’s Snider you want to give the confidence to. But Bautista is a part of the team also and he’s been helping them win.
The Scutaro/Bautista and even Aaron Hill things (ie. you’re my 2 hitter, no-matter-what) reminds me how he helped Devon White (ie. you’re my lead off guy, no-matter-what) become a very good big leaguer. (He wasn’t really in Anaheim if I remember correctly.)
Baseball is 90% mental and 50% physical (or something like that). Cito is pretty awesome at dealing with that first 90%…
- peteWhat can you say about Richmond? He looks like he has a chip on his shoulder and has something to prove to everyone who said he couldn’t make it. What impresses me is the high quality of his stuff, especially his fastball. The only worry I have is against the Yankees with the high number of lefties in that lineup teeing up in that bandbox called new Yankee Stadium.
I know you are not guilty of this, but I think it’s time for all media outlets to stop calling him “Canadian” Scott Richmond like he is some affirmative action program for the Blue Jays. He is the real deal and could pitch for any team in MLB.
MW: Yankee Stadium will be scary for Richmond, you’re right. I don’t have a problem with him being referred to as a Canadian. I think it’s very cool that he’s one of us.
- JBAt what point does Hill start hitting 4th? I see no reasons why Wells and Rios couldn’t each move up a spot.
About the schedule. At first I was pretty worried About the bulky ALE competition at the end of the season But the rest of the ALE has it set up the same way. So this gives me a little more confidence in the Jays to stay consistent after July.
MW: At no point does Hill start hitting 4th.
- DenisJust wanted to drop u a note to say I enjoy reading your commentary.
Oh, I do have one question – What is it that Cito Gaston brings to this team? With essentially the same team as his predecessor the team is playing better. Why? What is Cito doing/not doing?
Curious.
MW: It’s not really essentially the same team as his predecessor. He has Adam Lind, Travis Snider and a healthy Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay. Cito brings calm, experience and two rings.
- karim kanjiRain baby rain! No Zach and bypass Burris tomorrow sounds like a plan
MW: Sorry about that.
- BenNice win for the Jays.
I thought Meche got hosed on a few important calls. Does his velocity always top out at about 91? I know they were speculating that he wasnt feeling great, but i always thought he threw harder than that (not that 91 is soft)
MW: I thought so, too, but his back was an issue.
- slobberfaceFirst, I agrre with everything you said in the post above. Everything.
2 questions, Scott Richmond’s line against lefties is now down to .260/.351/.540. Assuming he’ll never make staff ‘ace’, what would you want to see that line look like going through a full season?
Second, Travis Snider bunted again. Assuming that Cito did, as before, ask him to, did that look like an accidentally bad bunt that worked out well? Or do you think Snider looked at how the first and second baseman were positioned and tried to push it past the pitcher to see if he could get the base hit?
MW: 1 – It’s fine the way it is if righties continue to not be able to touch him at all. But ideally, you want that OBP against under .330 and that SLG against has to get down below .500, at least. 2 – Hopefully Snider, upon being asked to bunt, saw it as an opportunity to knock it past the mound and get himself a hit, but I’m not sure that’s what he was actually trying to do.
- Greg WWell Mr. Wilner…I’m loving your comment about the Jays having a legit shot at the Wild Card! Is that Mike Wilner the Fan or Mike Wilner the Radio Broadcaster…or both? Either way, it’s awesome!
Lyle Overbay showed again tonight how valuable he is. That throw was an absolute strike! I find it interesting that Jays fans can argue all day long about how Johnny Mac should be in the lineup strictly for his defense (I am one of them) but they can’t see how valuable Lyle Overbay is at first. I think the Overbay haters should consider his tremendous defense and his .964 OPS before they continually demand that he should be traded.
Where would you rank him defensively among first basemen?
MW: Right in the top group with guys like Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.
- BrendanWilner,
Do you think players look, or pay attention to the standings this early in the season?
MW: Look? Sure. Pay attention to? Not so much.
- BobbyHi Mike;
Great to see the offence once again back up richmond who I think has an outside chance of winning 12-15 games if he’s healthy, lofty praise but he has alot of poise and he’s getting better every outing- mike sorry have to disagree with Aaron hill’s assessment, he is by far the best player next to halladay on the jays team, and although the season’s early, he is leading in most offensive catagories and has been a plesant suprise next to scutaro. Hill’s the spark plug of this team and missing him last year cost us a shot @ the wildcard last year. Great work as always, Mike you still have the best blog on the fan- go jays go.
- robert.sHi Mike,
- marioEnjoying the the jays success but I don”t understand why Burress deserves another shot..We should try one of those kids in double A.At least we can get a peek at someone who can help us in the future.
Go Jays!!!
One thing I have not heard anyone mention in a post game or comment on in the blog is how the Jays current record may be illustrating the characteristics of the schedule, the strength distribution in the AL and its potential association with the lack of a salary cap, and the MLB draft mechanism.
MLB has a very unbalanced schedule. Blue Jays play 18 games against division rivals, 7 or 8 against other AL teams. So far the Jays are beating up on non-AL east teams, and as in most recent years the AL east overall has a much better record. It seems likely that if they were not in the AL east they would have a really good chance to win their division.
As long as baseball has such an unbalanced schedule, and no salary cap that allows two of the top spending teams (by far) to be in the same division, and a draft order based precisely on record (that allowed TB to be near the top each year for a long time potentially due in a large way to the first two points), it somewhat conspires against the middle road teams (e.g. the Jays) in that division from making the playoffs. It would be interesting to see the effect of changing even one of those three mechanisms: even a loose salary cap, a slightly more balanced schedule, a kind of draft lottery. What would you estimate the likelihood of any changes to those happening?
MW: The only one of those things that has more than a very slight chance of happening is balancing the schedule, which I think should be an imperative.
- GaryA shot at the wild card?
Can this be Mike Wilner speaking or has an evil twin taken control of his body.
It’s way too early to be thinking playoffs . . . but we can dream. That’s nice.
Me? I’m still skeptical that the hitting will continue putting up so many runs and that the starting pitching will be good enough over the long haul. As you are so fond of pointing out: the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint.
MW: Amazing that I’m getting ripped for saying that I’m starting to think they have a shot at the wild card, when I’ve spent the last few years being painted as a Jays apologist.
- Ken from KingstonWhat I love about this team is that so far there haven’t been any games that I thought we should have won that we didn’t. Save maybe the first game against Oakland where we had the 5-1 lead. At this time last year the Jays had lost a handful of very winnable games.
I have a love/hate attitude towards Cito. I love some of the same things you do. The way he argues calls etc. And he brings a certain level of class and calm to the team which I appreciate.
I do however disagree with many of his in game decisions. I believe pinch-hitting can be a valuable move at the right time. It also frustrates me that we have an incredible defensive weapon that lies dormant on the bench every game. Why can’t Mcdonald come in late in close games, or start when Halladay starts? I know Cito likes the set lineup, and he doesn’t like substituting or pinch-hitting because of the effect it might have on the player’s ego? But what of Johnny Mac’s ego? I love what Scutaro is doing this year and I’m not complaining about his defense. But Come On! Get Johnny Mac in there in tight games!
What do you think?
MW: I don’t think Scutaro has been significantly worse than McDonald would be in the field this year.
- Rob H.sorry Mike I really screwed up on the math. This “.500″ thing gets me every time. 30 and 20 should really only be 5 games over .500.
MW: It should, since the .500 mark at 50 games played is 25-25. But the generally accepted usage of the term is that a record of 30-20 is ten games over, since it would take 10 losses to get back to .500.
- Dan from ElmvaleMike, great takes!
Absolutely impressed with the way that Richmond and Romero (before the dl stint) were helping carry the load. Purcey is struggling, but if Tallet can eat up some innings before the Jays get the injured arms back, the way that the team is coming together it will be an interesting summer. Of course there will be slumps, and with Cito in the driver’s seat I don’t see why the Jays don’t at least have “a puncher’s chance” at the wildcard. The Yankees are struggling with lousy pitching so that means it may come down to the second place team in the Central. I think that Seattle is kind of playing over their head (See Jarrod Washburn) and will come back to the pack. It will be an interesting summer! I’m a Cubs fan but my AL team is the Jays! Go Blue Jays!
MW: We shall see.
- Cubbie BlueHi Mike
I commend you for constantly reminding people that the baseball Gods will allow teams to find their level. It seemed last year BA with RISP and two out hits were non-existent, and sure enough, it’s turned around this year – or so it seems. Hopefully fans can get over their hockey bias and not “get on a ledge” after every loss.
My question – do you know if Richmond is working on a pitch for lefties? I don’t recalll exactly, but was it Litsch that developed the Cutter for lefties?
MW: I never really have mentioned the baseball gods, but I see where you’re going. Litsch developed a four-seamer and I believe he started throwing the cutter more.
- DanI want to believe, too, but there are some monster teams to get by first. It’s a great summer for baseball.
1. True or false: the only team Toronto has played so far this year that will finish over .500 is Kansas City.
2. True or false: the best four teams in the AL, regardless of record right now, are in the AL East (errr…maybe three out of four).
MW: 1 – No idea. 2 – Maybe three out of four.
- JoeHey Mike
Hypothetically speaking, if the rotation were to perform as they have been thus far, how do you see the pitching staff shape up when Jansmeroistch return? Specifically, do you send Purcey down? Do you return Tallet to the pen? Do you guarantee Janssen/Litsch a spot?
MW: When everyone gets back, the rotation should be Halladay/Litsch/Janssen/Romero/Richmond, though I haven’t got a clue what the order will be.
- AZHi Mike,
2 questions:
#1 Has Rios always been a slow starter? (I am not worried about him, he will come around and he is still a game changer on defense)
#2 Do you think acquiring Zaun and seeing his early production this year makes the Orioles a threat – he is really tearing up the ball, I am worried about this secret weapon the O’s now have.
Thanks,
Matt
MW: 1 – April has been one of Rios’ best months in the past, with the absolute best overall being June. 2 – Your first question was actually a good one, why did you have to go and ruin it?
- MateoThe 09 Jays have something this year which they’ve lacked in years past and can’t be measured on paper….SWAGGER! This team has all the little things going for them, they have great chemistry and play with a ton of emotion on the field. Player for player there’s no argument they don’t match up to some of the big boys in the American league but they have that “IT” factor about them which is something that can never be analysed on paper.
GO JAYS GO!!
MW: It’s something that can never be proven wrong or right, which is why so many people argue about it so much.
- Rob BennettEnjoying listening to the pre and post-game Jays Talk on my MP3 player but whenever you include more than one audio clip in you blog posts, only the first gets downloaded by my podcast software. Maybe you should do two posts (one for each audio clip) or have the technical guys at Rogers look into it.
Keep up the good work of with your balanced Jays reporting.
- David JI know it was touched on during Jays talk, but I’d been wondering this for about a week, so I’ll ask anyway.
I think many of us expected this team to be an 82-85 win. That said, if they were to play at 4 games over the rest of the way, they’d come out with 87 wins. We’ve got no reason to think they can’t do that (and every reason, I think, to believe they can).
Are we getting close to a number where you’ll be comfortable thinking they’ll compete for the wild card? Or do they have to put some hurt on the Red Sox first?
MW: I don’t think many people expected the Jays to be an 82-85 win team – go look back in the comments at the beginning of the season when I made that prediction. We’re not getting close to the point at which I’d be comfortable thinking they’ll definitely compete for a playoff spot.
- RyanWill Scott Richmond turn out to be this year’s Tampa Bay Rays? We keep waiting for ‘reality’ to set it, but it never does. Let’s hope.
- JoelI also believe we have a shot at the wild card Mike, and in my opinion the only teams that concern me are the Yankees, and to a degree Tampa.
Put your GM hat on for a moment and let present to you a hypothetical scenario. By the end of May (29 games) our record is 33-20. Do you make a trade to acquire a starting pitcher?
And if so, what type of assets would you prefer to ship out in return?
MW: No, I don’t.
- ChrisGreat game tonight – great pitching, offense and defense (Hill’s error notwithstanding)
However, I’d like to say this about Purcey – yes, he is having control issues. I seem to remember a big lefty some years ago that had control issues. He settled them down and had (and is still having) a stellar career. His name – Randy Johnson. He went from 144 walks in 1992 to 99 the following year – and he kept trending it down. Let’s give Purcey a chance to figure it out.
MW: That’s some kind of comparison.
- Wayne in ScarboroughMlb.com title to a video: “Richmond stifles the Jays for the win”
In thinking about it though, it actually does make sense.
- HowardMike,
I had a friend yesterday ask if it was ok to get excited about this team so early. I said yes of course. What is the point of suffering the lows if you can’t enjoy the highs.
Maybe this team isn’t for real. Maybe they will struggle to win 75. If that is the case and this is the high watermark and if that is the case, isn’t that all the more reason to enjoy this streak? If you ask me this is the time to trash talk you Boston and New York loving friends. Tell them they can keep Beckett because the Doc is the house every 5 days. And forget about A-Rod coming back because Rolen is back at full stregthen showing everyone how to play the hot corner.
- JWWilner!
Good show but you gotta kick the 80′s music its brutal, just brutal. I think we need the musically inclined to write you a theme song.
MW: It’s so not brutal.
- JeffYo Mike. Richmond showed some vet kool on the play to 3base. I almost spill my beer. after the play he acted like he makes that play all the time. Does Cito ever smile. Ok Blue Jays keep it going! Your # 1 fan raptorized John.
- john Artismichael,
- darrell bishopfirstly, i still can’t get over the play that lyle o. started over to 3rd last night. he seemed totally focused on the out at 1st with his back to the 3rd bag and the seemingly 6th sense he had on that play & of course the throw right on the money to scotty r….. wow.
obviously we’ve seen so many great plays so far this yr. from this team at the plate & in the field, but that one to me was the best to date.
lyle has such a great arm, plays his position so well, such a great eye at the plate (one of the best we’ve ever had in that regard & that’s saying somethin’ i know) & his ability to hit doubles & timely hr’s. he can play on my team anytime that’s all i got to say about him.
and what’s the team paying the cf this yr. anyway? is it around $12m i think i heard (with bonuses included?) somethin’ tells me that’s going to look like a bargain by the time this season’s over barring injuries of course. just hopin’ he keeps taking those major league cuts at those 1st pitch fastballs this yr. & it’ll be a yr. to remember for him is my guess.
and all this talk about needing more pitching. not so sure about that to be honest. let’s have a good look at this team with janssen, litsch, romero, ryan all healthy again (& throw in accardo just in case) that should do it.
and i might sound like a dreamer when it comes to this one, but could you imagine if we even had just 1 more starter that was pitching as well as richmond is this yr.? hopefully halladay or one of the others picks it up a bit & starts to match him if it’s possible.
Hey Mike,
I wanted to talk about Alex Rios. In my book, this guy has tons of potential to be a great player in the years to come. My concern with him is that he’s not a consistent hitter like aaron hill. Rios has his streaks where he’s very good and streaks where he looks lost and confused. When Rios is hitting well then he stays back on the ball and sees pitches very well and then can drive the ball where he wants the ball to go. When Rios is not hitting well then his front ahoulder opens and he commits himself to early to pitches and just looks awful.
MW: Just remember a few years back when Hill was hitting .140 in the middle of May.
- Hussain P.Re your show after the games,
London Radio CJBK 1290 does
not carry it much if at all…
Do you know why??
Robert Goodwin
London…
MW: I don’t know why, but you should call them up and demand the give you the whole thing!
- Robert GoodwinIts too bad that Rogers is not taking advantage of the Jays being in first place with the best record in baseball. No one is acknowledging that fact publicly, for fear of what? If they think it won’t last what am I supposed to think?
Mike, wouldn’t it make sense for the Jays to give out as many fifth deck seats as possible just to fill the stadium? The public likes to attend things that are the “it” thing to do. The Toronto Soccer club is the perfect example of that. They would not be losing any money anyway because once you have them there they will spend money on concessions. The atmosphere would only help the Jays. 15,000 does not cut it.
And what is with the library style culture of the Skydome? Cheering and rooting for the Jays is prohibited, why? No one in my section yelled out anything offensive but the usher and the head of security came over like five times, until we got kicked out. That could explain why they average something like 15,000 a game.
MW: No one is acknowledging publicly that the Jays are in first place with the best record in baseball? I wonder why you and your friends got kicked out, there must have been something to it other than the fact that you were yelling inoffensive things. Giving away tickets, according to some, lessens the overall value of the product.
- aHey Mike,
I know this discussion comes up a lot. But I was wondering if the reason that you down play the “Cito Effect,” is because you don’t want to open the floodgates to the not so deepthinking fans; who like to think Cito could coach the Pittsburgh Pirates into first place.
I agree with you most of the time, but I think you haven’t given Cito his due. This is coming from a guy who use to think managers have little-to-no impact, to more of an impact than some of us realzie.
For example, Gibbons would tinker with the lineup quite frequently. He would often move the hot hitters into the prime spots where they would cool down, I haven’t looked at lineup breakdowns, but thats kind of how I remember it in hindsight.
I also think the hitting approach might be more condusive to this teams style of hitters. Guys like Hill, Rios and Wells need to swing the bats. Riccardi would say on your show they want every player to try to walk 1 out of 10 times, and it seems like that idea is now gone…
You receive arguments like this all the time, so sorry if this is boring the crap out of you.
My question is just this: Have the results since Cito has taken over made you change your perspective on “the manager effect,” in the slightest?
MW: Not really. Players win games, not managers. I think the reason I down-play the “Cito effect” so much is because so many people over-play it. Sure, Cito has had a positive effect on this group, there’s no debate about that. But come on.
- Stevie H.Hey Mike!!! Solid blog once again. Are there any big name free agents to be that the Jays could pick up at the deadline if they are still in the thick of things???
MW: Good free agents tend not to be available at the trade deadline, but there are guys like Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, Frank Thomas and Jacque Jones out there.
- VinceMike, over the last 13 years Toronto pitchers have lead the American League in complete games 8 times (incl. ties). My question is: has the city been putting something in the water?
Also… free breakfast and ________?
MW: Internets!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- J-rocHey mike,
before you told me the starting rotation if all the jays pitchers were healthy. That list did not contain Scott Richmond. Do you think if he continues to be consistently good like has been is whole career (although it was been what, only 9 starts?) he could crack that starting order? If so who would he take out of it.
MW: Yes, he could, and the way things are going it would be Purcey who would go.
- Kamran KaramchiHi Mike. I was just wondering where Kevin Mench currently player, and Adam Lowen’s status.
MW: Loewen is playing in Dunedin, and Mench in Japan.
- Ben BrowneJust wanted to let you know that the other night Fletcher referred to Barajas as the “back catcher”
MW: Sheesh.
- General ZodIs there any possibility that the Blue Jays move Vernon up to the 3 spot, Lind to the 4th and Rios to the 5th? I remember that Vernon had his most success as a 3 hitter, but generally in front of somebody who is considered dangerous. Another possibility might be to go out and trade for a pure power bat like Aubrey Huff (i know his drawbacks…no need to mention them) and stick him as our 4th hitter and move Wells to 3, rios to 5, lind to 6 etc.
What do you think?
AND I am aware that the Jays are the best hitting ball club, but when reality kicks in then do you think this is a good idea?
MW: Who does Huff replace? It would have to be Snider, based on what you’re saying, and I’d rather have Snider in there. I don’t see Cito dropping Rios to the 5th spot, and I don’t especially want Wells hitting 3rd.
- JakeI know this it still too early in the season to have too much confidence in our bluejays. However, the way they play so far convince me that this is the year that we finally win at least 90 games. I say this not because they are 15-7, but since outside of 2 or 3 blown out games this year, they had a chance to win every single game. If our starters were not injured, jays could have easily been 18-4 instead.
Plus, we have the best picther in baseball who gives you a legitimate shot to win every 5th day and there aren’t many teams that have a starting pitcher like that.
I could be wrong, but as long as these young pitchers don’t do too terrible, they have a chance.
I guess their young picthing is the theme of 2009 season since at the end, they are only going to go as far as these picthers take them.
By the way, how hard does Brett Cecil and Brad Mills throw? (92-93 mph??)
MW: Cecil throws at least that hard, but not Mills.
- Jayforecast through tomorrow calls for rain tonight, followed by thundershowers. What happens to cancelled/postponed games if they do not return to KC?
MW: They make up the games on a mutual off-day.
- AvromMike,
I can’t agree more about Richmond or Scutaro, so instead of massaging your ego, I have a random question for you.
If you had to pick a pitcher and a hitter for a theoretical baseball team, but you could only know two statistical numbers for each one, which two statistical numbers would you want?
(And yes, this is just an excuse for a statisical jock to learn more about which ones are important. Although I’m sure any fanatical baseball statistician would claim that one being more important than another is akin to heresy.)
MW: For a pitcher, I would want to know his WHIP and his K/IP, though I’m not happy about that. For a hitter, I would want to know his OBP and SLG.
- KaliWow. Just listening to yesterday’s pre-pre-game show.
“The question, forth of which I will put, is…”
Mike that might be a new record for fun with English on your shows. Thanks again!
(Although the “Ode to Romero” ranks right up there as well. I am starting work on the lyrics to my “Walk ‘n’ Balk Jock Rock” (I will share upon completion (it’s in D (like “Ode To Joy” (boy, that’s an ambitious comparison (oops, the computer guy in me is nesting brackets again.)))))
- James (from the 'Shwa)hey mike, keep up the good work ive become addicted to it and i cant say enough about how you handle yourself dealing with the nut job callers. my question is this lets just say hypothetically marcum jansen andmcgowan come back this season and its august. whats you opinion on what the rotation would look like? whos gonna go to bullpen, romero,richmond,tallet? and who you do see going to las vegas,purcey?
my guess would be
1. doc
2. mcgowan
3. marcum
4. romero
5. tallet
i know both richmond and tallet look good and tallet is from the pen but i just think he has a better chance at keeping this up
MW: So much depends on what happens between now and August, it’s an impossible question to answer.
- joe from new jerseyHi Mike,
Any idea what is going on with Gustavo Chacin? This guy was so good for a while and just flamed out. I know he had that injury with that quirky wind up, but is it fair to say his carreer is now over. If you can’t make the washington nationals pitching staff you are just about finished? Its a shame because I think the jays gave up on him a little too early and had the makings of a good starting pitcher before the injury.
MW: Obviously the Jays didn’t give up on him too early if he can’t even make the Nationals, as you say. The truth is, he was never really that good, and it didn’t take long for the league to figure him out.
- MotiRoy Halladay and Albert Pujols have faced off in the All-Star game in the past. In 2006, Halladay struck him out. In 2008, Pujols singled off Halladay, but Pujols was thrown out at second. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ALS/ALS200807150.shtml)
- Steve KhanMike,
Looking ahead once again, who do you think will be or will be on the trading block, in terms of DH 30Hr guys? If the jays should pursue them? What would it cost to aquire some of these players?
MW: More than the Jays should want to pay. I want Snider playing.
- JazzTallet doing his best Purcey impression tonight. Please explain how one WALKS WILLIE BLOOMQUIST, Mike. You said so yourself last year – he’s a TERRIBLE player.
MW: It’s relative, of course, but Willie Bloom has always been good at drawing walks.
- RenegadeHi Mike,
I am starting to remeber why tallet has been a good reliever. Because once or twice through the order and he gets exposed. I just noticed that Fabio Castro was moved up to triple a by the jays so tommorow should be the last we see of brian burres. When jansson comes back we say goodbye to tallet or purcey.
- MotiBilly Butler?? Really?????
You already used “Blown Out” as a title for a blog, I wonder what the title will be for today’s blog. Hopefully it will be something more creative that “Blown Out Part II”.
MW: The Butler Did It?
- BradHi Mike,
Jerry and Alan were just talking about Carlos Zambrano career home run totals.
I remember Mark Hendrickson hit a home run, are there any other Jays pitchers that have hit a dinger?
MW: Nope.
- Gary WI know you won’t like this bur when does Rios ever make an amazing catch? It just seems he doesn’t play the field with enough enthusiasm. He has fumbled a couple of balls tonight and there is no way that one should have got by him that went for a triple. I honestly believe, and I wish it wasn’t the case, that Rios is way over rated. I think he got caught reading his own clippings to early in his career and in my eyes he hasn’t lived up to the billing. I heard something last night that I didn’t know about replacement players like Millar. They apparently aren’t allowed as members into the players association. Do you think there is still anomosity towards these players after all these years?
MW: No, I don’t, except in the union leadership. You’re completely wrong about Rios, and the numbers bear it out.
- Dan from Elmvale“MW: 2 – So it must have been the ‘92 team that didn’t lose a series.”
Sorry, I meant the 1992 team lost that series to Milwaukee. Neither team accomplished this mythical feat you speak of.
MW: Hmmmm, I’ll have to go to the source of that information and find out what he means, then.
- AriHow can you tell me you don’t shake your head when he drops a rolling ball or it goes past him when he obviously should be able to pick it up?
MW: You do realize the ground is soaking wet out there tonight, right?
- Dan from ElmvaleThat’s tonight Mike and I don’t see anyone else having the same problems tonight.
MW: But you didn’t see anyone else with any touhg plays to make, either, did you?
- Dan from ElmvaleI wish I was wrong, I would love to see Rios live up to his potential beacause I love the Jays and this would make the team so much better. I just don’t see the consistency from the guy.
- Dan from ElmvaleRE: Ryan told to stop throwing for a week. Is this guy done or just hurt? His MRI was clean. What’s the deal here?
MW: His MRI was clean as far as structural damage, but there was a lot of inflammation. He’s hurt, sheesh.
- RenegadeThree blow out losses in the last five games.
A bump in the road or a dose of reality ??
MW: Both?
- KenFor the record, I also remember the ’92 team did not lose a series all year, but they dis split four gamers…. you don’t have to bother posting this.
MW: The ’92 team lost at least one series, against the Brewers in late April/early May. I stopped looking after I found the first one.
- Greg WCome on Mike why do you keep defending Rios? He has been a great outfielder thus far in his career but this year has been a different story. His hitting is obviously affecting his fielding. He has been misjudging balls, overrunning, and diving when he doesn’t have a chance. He has been horrible.
MW: By no measure has he been horrible.
- RenzoMW: But aren’t there experts out there who believe that BABIP has predictive value?
By using BABIP to determine if a pitcher was lucky or not you can predict his future ERA much more accurately than by using previous ERA. Not sure is this is what you mean.
BABIP in and of itself has no predictive qualities. Pitchers who have high BABIP in one season tend to be league average in future seasons. And similarly pitchers who had low BABIP in one season also tend to have league average BABIP the following season.
It is exactly similar to clutch hitting. Players who hit well in the clutch in one season tend to be league average in subsequent seasons. And the same for hitters who hit poorly in clutch situations. Clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill, nor is a low BABIP.
MW: Good info.
- KenI just wanted to point out that the Jays have been blown out 3 of the past 5 games and that has to be concerning. Especially
considering that it was against CWS and KC which are two weak offensive teams. How can the Jays face NYY and BOS with this crappy pitching? I like Tallet but he belongs in the bullpen. Burres belongs in single A, and Purcey has major control issues. Im not sure richmond is the saviour either since he is still new in the league and teams will stat figuring him out. It could be a long season for the jays pitchers.
MW: Yes, it could. But that was always going to be the case, wasn’t it?
- aviMW: Don’t forget – you can’t walk when you put the first pitch in play, and that knocks your OPS down quite a bit. By the way, Wells hits .333 for his career when he puts the second pitch in play, .264 on the third.
You are right about the BB’s. Thanks for the info on Wells. I’m not sure where this info is available. Is it something the Blue Jays have published. That .264 is very low. There must be a lot of 0-2 counts mixed in there.
re #36
“The Jays currently are 8 games over .500.”
With a record of 15-7 the Jays are four games over .500. A .500 team would be 11-11 (say the Yankees) and exactly four games behind the Blue Jays.
- KenThe bullpen is not so great either with stiffs like Camp and Murphy.
MW: They’re less stiffy than what a lot of teams have at the back of their bullpens.
- aviEverybody is expecting Janssen, Romero, and Litsch to be these saviours when they get back. You have to remember that they are young pitchers with average stuff(litsch and Janssen) and inexperience(Romero). They will have bad outings too. They are not 18 game winners.
MW: You lost me with the 18-game winner thing.
- avimike, why do you keep defending rios. dan from elmvale is right, rios is the most overrated player in the league. name me one player that is more overrated? you predicted 20 hr for rios. he has 16 hr in his last 178 games. so you think he will hit 19 hr in remaining 139 games? be realistic mike, it isn’t going to happen.
MW: Considering that Rios isn’t even “rated” by most baseball fans across MLB, there are approximately 100 players who are more overrated than he.
- harishawmike you said that you need a backup ss and that’s mcd but when mcd subs in then who is the backup? there is none so your logic doesn’t fly
MW: Right. Because a team that has a 25-man roster should have two back-ups at every position.
- coryMW: It should, since the .500 mark at 50 games played is 25-25. But the generally accepted usage of the term is that a record of 30-20 is ten games over, since it would take 10 losses to get back to .500.
Not sure how generally accepted it is. Only in the media do we get this. Most baseball analysts on various talk lists understand what “games over .500 actually means”. It’s also generally accepted that BA is a meaningful statistic but that doesn’t make it right.
This reminds of how so many announcers will say that a team “wins it first game” after they win their fourth game to up their record to 1-3. What is so hard about saying that it was their first win in their fourth game?
#78
“Just wanted to let you know that the other night Fletcher referred to Barajas as the “back catcher””
Now what would Fletcher know about baseball terminology. MW is a professional baseball broadcaster. If he says it’s not “back catcher”……then it’s not “back catcher. My dad used to say back catcher too, but he was obviously wrong.
MW: I hate when people say “wins his first game”. I think, to combat that, when a pitcher gets a win in his 20th appearance this season, I’m going to say that he won his 20th game. “Back catcher” is a Canadian term, and Fletch is poking fun at us when he uses it.
- Kenhey mike again. i was just thinking to myself while im listening to the jays talk now. im starting to wonder how many more years the doc has and if you think he might wanna leave the jays soon if they dont get any better. so my ? is do you have an opinion on who you think the next doc for us might be. do you see marcum or mcgowan or romero becoming the future doc for us or its still up in the air?
MW: There won’t be a next Doc so soon. The guy is a hall of famer.
- joe from new jerseyI’m not a big Rios basher, I think he is just in a slump, its baseball, it happens. However, looking at his Ultimate Zone Rating numbers for this year, it shows his defense has been less than stellar. His UZR/150 has a value of -16.6, which isn’t very good. It is obviously very early in the year, and it is hard to look at a stat like this without a large body of work, but we all know Alex can do better. He was second in all of baseball last year with a 27.5 UZR/150. By the way, Vernon’s UZR/150 is -37.3 this year, third to last for outfielders in MLB.
MW: Tiny sample size, but thanks for reminding people about last year.
- BrettMike
Do you see the Jays re-signing Barajas to start next year for one more year? Or does Arencibia start next year?
Also for position players it looks like the only hole we have is shortstop and we should have the money to sign a big name, right? In the offseason of course.
Its going to be a scary line up next year
Do you think doc re-signs?
MW: There won’t be a big name free agent shortstop out there. Halladay is still under contract through 2010, but I have a feeling they get something done this winter. And no, I don’t see them re-signing Barajas.
- jamieActually, I was considering last year’s at bats when commenting on how Lyle Overbay might be at the start of showing his age with his decline against left handers. I agree about 2009, we don’t have enough at bats to make a “full” determination on 2009. We should have a chance to get an idea on his progress because is not implementing a “strict” platoon.
Thank you for the clarifying your statement on Lyle Overbay as being a response to a caller’s question. Within the context of the question, your answer does make sense. Never the less, I think the answer should be qualified with the five intentional walks. Normally, intentional walks are a sign of hitting prowess dramatically better than the rest of the line up. However, in this case, it is more a result of hitting in front of Rod Barajas with one man out, runners in scoring position, and first base open. His intentional walks are most likely a result of the hitting prowess of the two batters in front of him.
P.S. Please keep posting the shows online. I enjoy listening to them. They provide good insight and interesting perspectives.
- Mark Bryskimike you said that you need a backup ss and that’s mcd but when mcd subs in then who is the backup? there is none so your logic doesn’t fly
MW: Right. Because a team that has a 25-man roster should have two back-ups at every position.
what is this guy talking about?
when mcdonald subs in that means scutaro is on the bench backing him up against injury?
are you saying mike’s logic doesn’t fly because there isn’t an unlimited amount of backups?
- joshHi Mike,
I belive that the confusion about the `92 or `93 team not losing a series stems from the fact that the `92 team went the entire season without ever having been swept in any series. Not one.
The `92 was so amazingly consistent that their longest losing streak of the season was 5 games, and that happened only once – they lost the last three games of a four game series and the first two games of the following three game set. Never swept though – not even in a little two game mini series. Amazing.
Strangely, that `92 team’s pythag. record was only a solid 91-71. Whereas the often forgotten `87 team’s pythag was a superior 100-62. Go figure.
MW: I think you’re exactly right, it was about the sweeps. The ’87 team was the best team the Jays ever put together prior to ’92.
- JamieSorry to chime in on the 1992 team, but that team didn’t get swept in a series all season.
That team lost many series that season, but they were never swept.
MW: No apology necessary.
- Cam