1:25 AM Eastern
Well, that was certainly something.
In the midst of a Chicago windstorm the Blue Jays added plenty of thunder and simply blew the White Sox right out of their own building.
The Jays continued to show their opportunistic side, taking advantage of a double-play ball that Alexei Ramirez dropped, then kicked, in the first inning to score three runs thanks to the big bats of Vernon Wells and Adam Lind. Scott Rolen got a big two-out hit in the 3rd, then it just got silly. Fun, but silly.
Brian Tallet was terrific in awful conditions, and the conditions are the only reason I can imagine Bill Murphy would issue three walks with no less than a 12-run lead.
There’s really nothing more to say about this game, it was one of those 60 that go in the “you’re gonna win” column. A couple of interesting notes, though:
-Gavin Floyd was one of the worst pitchers in the majors at holding runners last season (and A.J. Pierzynski is no great shakes his own self), and the Jays were prepared and took great advantage of that early. They stole three bases in the first three innings, increasing the team’s season total by 50%. The most daring theft was that of Wells stealing third in the 3rd. He took off, and was a good three steps gone while Floyd was still in his stretch, and Floyd wound up coming home anyway.
-A little bit of fun in the outfield, as Brent Lillibridge hit a fly ball to left-centre in the 6th. It was the centrefielder’s ball, but Wells let Travis Snider call him off, what with the score 12-0, and then high-fived the rookie after he made the routine catch. Fun stuff, and the kind of thing over which people would be blowing their tops if the Jays had a losing record.
One hopes they’ll still have something left in the tank for Saturday night’s date with Mark Buehrle, but that may not matter. The forecast calls for rain, so we may well see a wash-out. This being the Jays’ only visit to Chicago this year, that might mean a double-header Sunday, but that’s doubtful at this point in the season. They’d likely try to find a mutual off-day and (hopefully) give us the pleasure of a Buerhle/Roy Halladay match-up Sunday afternoon, a game that should take about an hour and a half to play.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Remember to tune in for some pre-pre-game JaysTalk Saturday at 6:00 PM Eastern! Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Some crazy stats thrown out during tonight’s game: Jays have twelve different players with home runs this year. all the starters but one got an rbi tonight (the one being overbay) Tallet also played great, not that he needed to, which is fine because whenever the offense can put up those kind of runs, you gotta know the pitchers are going to get even more confident. If we can keep up this pace all year (let’s pray) it should be a very, very fun season. One last thing i want to say is that this city needs a winning team.
- Kamran KaramchiMaple leafs – Sucked
Raptors – Sucked
Argo’s – Sucked
Rock – Sucked
TFC – To be determined
This city needs a winning team!
I’m a little worried about the offense. I mean, Johnny Mac hits into a double play and only 2 guys had 2 hits and only 5 guys had 3 hits tonight. I think the offense needs to be relooked, retooled, and oh.. trade Rios and Wells!
/sarcasm off! (couldn’t help it!)
Honestly, in the 9th inning, I turned to my wife and said “How DID Chicago get 25 outs so far this game??”
Tonight was a treat.
- AngeloHey Mike, I’ve heard your comments about the “loose” Jays this year and how you can’t understand why people say it’s a good thing now that they’re winning but it was a bad thing the last couple of years when they were losing. That’s just the point. When the team is losing, you want to see that they at least care and hate to lose. Otherwise it looks like they’re just collecting a paycheck. Too many times in the past couple of years, the laughing and joking around during a losing streak looked more like disinterest than being loose. It just seemed that there were just certain players that gave the notion that they didn’t really care if they won or lost, that was the issue.
MW: I agree that that perception was the issue, I just don’t think it’s valid. The same players who gave the notion that they didn’t really care are now just as loose and winning, so loose is good.
- LarryHey Mike
If this keeps up Cito will become the most popular sports personality in the history of T.O. Not to minimize the effect he has had on the club, but he is getting a ridiculous amount of credit from the fans. LaRussa has been quoted stating that even the very best managers in the game will account for maybe 10 wins over the course of a 162 game season. It will be interesting to see how fans respond to his absurd moves when the club goes through an extended losing streak.
If the Jays keep finding ways to win, and find themselves in the race at the allstar break, i hope JP takes advantage of the opportunity/hot streak and brings in some help, even if that means dealing a few solid youngsters like Arencibia or even McGowen or Marcum if they are not ready to contibute this year.
MW: McGowan and Marcum have no value on the trade market right now, nor will they at the break. And of all the young guys, why deal Arencibia? The Jays’ two biggest holes beyond this season are at catcher and shortstop.
- rick14 runs, and it all started with Scutaro drawing a walk. Is it time for those of us who love Johnny Mac’s defense to embrace Scutaro as a blessing for this team? Or, like so many other things, is it simply too early?
MW: Scutaro has indeed been a blessing this season. His defense has taken a giant leap forward, to go with the great lead-offishness. That’s what’s been the most pleasant surprise to me so far.
- MichaelFrank Thomas was right all along. Now that we do not have Frank Thomas the entire Blue Jay offense has fallen apart.
- Dave NantaisHello again Mike,
What a game today! I watched every second of it on MLB.tv and it was great to see the team playing so well. Watching the games and following the team has really been a nice break over these first few weeks because I’ve been so busy editing my thesis film for school. A few comments:
1) I’m really glad that you made the point about the almost 1000 plate appearances that were given to Wilkerson, Mench, Stewart, Stairs and Thomas last year. This is something that I have been telling my friends that were skeptical about this team’s offense since before the season began. The reality is that those guys were, as a group, so far below replacement level that if the team gets even league average performance from the players replacing them it’s a six to seven win improvement on offense. It is about the equivalent of adding two stars to the every day lineup.
What if Snider and Lind wind up having massive break out years? What if Vernon Wells sustains his 2008 level of performance for a full 162 games? What if Jose Bautista gets 200 or so at-bats against lefties and hits them as hard as he has over the past three years? Suddenly the team is as many as a dozen or so games better offensively just from their outfielders and DH. And that is without even getting into Marco Scutaro’s improvement (and he is an improvement on Eckstein/McDonald/Scutaro even if he only winds up being as good as last year with the bat), Aaron Hill and Scott Rolen being healthy, any development from Rios, and the fact that Kevin Millar is a huge improvement on Lyle Overbay against left-handed pitching.
You can make a compelling argument that this team is very likely to be better offensively at every defensive position over the course of the season.
2) My projection coming into this year were that the team would be six to sixteen games (around 50 to 150 runs) better than last year in terms of run scoring and six to sixteen games (50 to 150 runs) worse in terms of run prevention. That is starting from a baseline of 92 wins which was their third order win total last year according to BaseballProspectus.com’s 2008 Adjusted Standings. Thus, my projection was that the team could wind up being anywhere between 82 and 102 wins. I dialed this back a bit based on the fact that the Jays never seem to exceed their third order record (they always seem to fall short by a few games) and said the team could win anywhere from 75 to 100 games depending on injuries and the development of the young players. It is a very, very hard team to project.
3) I had a drunken phone conversation with my friend back home in Toronto (I’m out in LA, as I said in a previous comment) the other night about Marco Scutaro being my new favourite player. I love his approach at the plate and his defensive prowess. He’s the kind of guy that could bat .260 with fairly average power for a shortstop over a full season and be a fantastically valuable player because of his ability to draw walks, extend at-bats, and play great defense at a very important position.
Anyway, my friend told me that that at Jays games there is a new tradition of one section yelling “Marco!” and another section responding by yelling “Scutaro!” That is awesome and I can’t wait to go to some games when I come back this summer so that I can get in on that.
MW: Good comment – and way to go out on a limb with the 75-100 win prediction!
- Nick WernhamWhen your fastball regains its power, but your control gets worse, where is the best place to work out you problems?
MW: The bullpen, then the minors.
- Richard S. SpackmanMike, who’s the most affable player you’ve dealt with in the clubhouse past to present?
MW: There have been many, and I’d hate to leave any out. Frank Catalanotto, Josh Towers, John McDonald, Aaron Hill, Chris Woodward, among others.
- JabesMike,
I assume you get to talk to Johnny Mac from time to time. Please congratulate him on a great segment with the legend Omar Visquel and encourage him to do that more often with Omar or with other players. And congrats to you as I’m sure you set that up. It is so interesting to hear players talk to each other uninterrupted, particularly players with such high baseball IQs as the hosts. I could literally have listened to them talk for hours. The segment was waaaaaaaaaay too short.
When Omar and Johnny Mac retire I think they would be great together on a weekly or daily podcast and would be even better on a nightly TV segment breaking down the defensive gems and miscues around the league.
Personally, I think the baseball coverage on the nightly sports shows (TSN & RSN) is very very weak. I tune in at night and, as usual, it’s hockey, hockey, hockey right now and like a minute of Jays or any MLB action. ESPN has a full show, Baseball Tonight, devoted strictly to baseball that we cant get in Canada. You should seriously host Baseball Tonight Canada on Sportsnet Wilner (or some Sportsnet equivalent)… but I know you’re a busy man.
MW: If they were interested in doing a Baseball Tonight show for this side of the border, I”d be thrilled to do it. And I couldn’t agree with you more about Mac and Vizquel.
- JoshMike, what was the last team to start a season with 7 straight series wins? Jays should win this series in Chicago since Doc will pitch on sunday and KC is KC, they can win 3 out of 4 there as well. So that’s 7 straight series of 3 games and more. Has it ever happened?
MW: I would think it has happened, but I have no clue who it was. I doubt they’ll win the series in KC.
- Beburgits not possible to keep this momentum going. But until when should this momentum take them ( and assuming they play on their normal pace you expect from both the pitching and offence till the rest or much of the season) in order to be serious runners in oct?
MW: Mid- to late May?
- nickMike, love the blog and love the start of this team..its nice to finally see the offense hit like it is supposed too. It has been frustarting watching that be the achilies heal of this team since they have good veteran hitters. One thing I noticed from last night was that Rios changed his stance.. he was more upright and had a different toe tap and he droped his hands a bit. Just wondering if you noticed it too and if that has been something he has been working on to drive the ball better.
MW: I hadn’t noticed, but a lot of you bloggists did, and Cito confirmed it last night.
- DanMike…Just happened to luck out and switch from the Jays two touchdown lead and catch the bottom of the ninth of Bos/N.Y….It was bizarre how Rivera handled the lefty hitters (Ortiz, Drew ,Varitek) with ease, but Youkilis almost decapitated him with a liner and Bay took him deep to centre to force extra innings..I’m not suggesting pinch-hitting for Big Papi, but with Rivera’s cutter destroying most lefties, maybe trying to have more righties bat is something for opposing managers to consider when facing Rivera? Maybe Varitek could’ve hit right-handed instead?..I’m not basing this on one bad, rare Rivera outing, but the guy is so dominant, I’m surprised teams don’t try something like that …I remember Robbie Alomar hitting righthanded against some right-handed knuckleballers..Any thoughts?
MW: Tony Fernandez used to hit right-handed against Rivera.
- chris m.michael,
i have to say i find it absolutely amazing how many people seem to be questioning j.p. & his guys on their recent decisions of who are the piching call ups based on the recent injuries.
heck there seems to be a even a bit of a groundswell on wondering why these guys are even in the organization let alone pitching at the major league level for the team.
do you find that a little surprising?
i mean really michael, do they honestly think that the gm & the management staff haven’t totally assessed who’s the best options right now taking in all the pertinent facts & circumstances .
the same guy(s who felt people like downs, tallet, carlson, camp, richmond were worthwhile pick ups in moving this organization forward.
the same guy(s)that felt players like scutaro, mcdonald, millar, bautista, barrett, chavez etc.. could be of great help in filling in the appropriate holes.
based on all the above, it’s quite surprising to me that these same people aren’t actually frothing at the mouth with anticipation of the next diamonds in the rough soon emerging.
crazy….
MW: Lots of fans tend to think they know better.
- darrell bishopI hope you enjoy playing sports too Mike. (Saturday)
Ahem , in the interests of not finding yourself on the DL,
the neck problem you have mentioned may seem funny now and not so funny later ! Are you working on an ergonomic(sp) chair? Raising the lap top higher? or some advice from de experts
Hate to lose your blogs …
MW: The neck issue is a thing that I have been living with for years and will have to deal with for the rest of my days. It just flares up every once in a while.
- barbiDid you see Overbay laughing at Tallet running over to firstbase. He certainly has an unorthodox way of running.
If he keeps up this great pitching and is able to start stretching into the 7th inning, is there a chance that they keep him in the starting rotation?
MW: If he keeps this up, sure.
- Mike MississaugaThe comments by “paolo” as to having inside info on Vernon Wells trainer is a bit far fetched don’t you think! I mean, why would a personal trainer go out there and tell anyone who would listen, the inside scoop on one of his clients? Especially making it sounds so negative. I would think this is a good way to loose your credibility as to being a “personal” trainer and certainly not good for business.
Something tells me “paulo” has an imaginary friend!
I like how some have suggested the Jays may be sorry they run up the score here. In baseball, the last thing you want to do is go up to the plate and purposely strike out or get yourself picked off on base.
Baseball is very unlike other sports when it comes to taking it easy on the opposition. About all a manager could do to keep the score down would be to insert players who have been riding the bench. You never here teams or managers complain about how the opposition “run up the score on them” in baseball! Well, at least not likely very often.
Take care Mike, keep on doing what you do best!
Thank you.
MW: I don’t think “running up the score” if ever a bad thing in pro sports. If you don’t want me to score, stop me from scoring. As for Paolo, he has provided me with contact info for this trainer he’s been writing about, and I’m going to get in touch with him.
- Bob from BurlingtonKinda neat to see two teams that joined MLB together leading their respective divisions. Jays and Mariners!
I think MLB should make it a rule that all weekend games have to be scheduled in the afternoon!
Thank you.
MW: LOTS of teams play their Saturday home games at night – far more than those who play day games. Maybe it’s a tradition in some locales.
- Bob from BurlingtonWith all the talk about the Jays’ relief problems, keep an eye on Leon Boyd in New Hampshire — so far, in 4 games, he has 4 saves, 4.1 IP, 5 Strikeouts, Zero Hits, Runs or Walks!
He looked good for the Netherlands in the WBC, and he’s been “lights out” thus far for NH.
Also note the Brian Jeroloman is hitting .315/.373/.444 thru 14 games — with his (given) edge defensively, maybe he’ll supplant JP Arencibia as the “future”?
MW: I doubt it on Jeroloman, I think he and Arencibia will be here together for a long, long time. As for Boyd – he’s Canadian! Woo hoo!
- Normyour health is well I trust.One non-related baseball observation;Every host of this program has gone on to bigger and better things.If we have to suffer through “the grill room” and that satilite show,WE should ALL push for a Mr.Wilner tv spot.Sunglasses and D. Shuleman have not done too badly.If Mr. new ceo is reading, I believe it,s time. Anyone else share my opinion?Please post this because it is deserving.
- bruceDon’t forget the “D” Mike!
We may have slipped behind KC in WHIP but the Jays lead the AL in FPCT and DER
MW: Fielding percentage means nothing.
- JamesHow cool is it that the Jays are leading all of MLB in Total bases — by no less than 50 (339 to 289, over Texas)!
Fully 39% of their hits have gone for extra bases (78 of 200). This compares to their 31.7 % LY, and the 2008 AL Best Texas figure of 37.4%.
1927 Yankees, anyone?
(I know, small sample size — but nice nevertheless).
MW: LY? Oh, last year (I think).
- NormI think the fact that the Jays kept the Sox off of the scoreboard is the more subtle positive to take from this game.
The defense up the middle has been steady – I think Aaron Hill’s return has made Scutaro better and the staff more confident in throwing strikes.
Mike I have a couple questions if you have the time:
Do you think Rolen should get a few extra days off here and there considering his injuries in the past? Would Scutaro go to third with McDonald at short?
2) This one is about the rules. If an error is committed by the pitcher that leads to a run, should that run really be ‘un-earned?’ Team game, individual stats…
Keep up the great work, go Jays!
MW: 1 – Rolen hasn’t been playing in day games after night games – he’ll get more time off than most of the everyday regulars. When he sits, Bautista plays third. 2 – Yes, it should. The pitching side of the pitcher is separated from his defensive prowess.
- GregHi Mike,
How are you? I noticed that you rarely get asked that on the blog, but most people care about you more when they call in.
It seems from one of the previous posts that there will be no “Wednesdays with JP” this season. Is this true? If yes, what is the reasoning behind this? If it is in fact true is there any chance that you might be able to get Alex Anthopoulos to join you once a week?
I think the insight management gives into the team is great and I hope it will continue this year on TheJaysTalk.
Also, great work with the Omar-Johnny Mac piece, that really was great radio!
MW: I thought so, too. The JP thing has been answered many times in this space over the past couple of weeks, as well as questions about possible replacements.
- Gary WWell Mike, are you ready, given the Chicago forecast for a rain-delay show, or a rain-out show? I recall in the dark ages, whenever there would be a rain-delay when CJCL or whatever station I would be listening to would play music and it seemed like an eternity waiting for an update on the game. Thank goodness those days are over and you give us the opportunity to talk Blue Jays and baseball in general while keeping the listeners informed on the weather situation. If we have a rain-out then I look forward to a Halladay-Buehrle match-up tomorrow.
Thanks Mike.
Peter, St.Catharines
- PeterMike – that conversational style interview between Vizquel and Johnny Mac lived up to the hype. Really great insight into the mental preparation and approach of a major league shortstop. There was clearly a mutual respect between two exceptional students of the game. Loved it. How did you get this interview?
Dave W
MW: I asked them both, and then worked hard over three days to get Vizquel out onto the field to do it.
- Dave WMW: ‘It really does astound me that people seem to believe so completely that, say, Lyle Overbay’s rough year in 2008 was Gibby’s fault and his success in ‘09 is thanks to Cito. Or that the team couldn’t hit to save its life with RISP in the first half of ‘08 because of Gibby and then started to because of Cito. It’s all part of the deification of coaches across all sports, I don’t get it. The players are the ones who bear the ultimate responsibility.’
Of course they are. But I have never said that Overbay’s woes were down to Gibbons. I don’t think it was Gibbons who was responsible for the team’s lack of hitting during the first part of last season. (However I do think that Denbo had a lot to do with it.) However I believe that Gaston’s philosophy of ‘it doesn’t matter if you go 0 for 4 today and tomorrow. The day after, you’ll still be on the field in your customary position’ is beneficial. The players have said how comfortable they feel in that situation, and I think it’s paid off well. Gibbons was a highly reactive manager who kept tinkering with the line-up. I didn’t blame him at the time. But now, watching how the steady line-up has settled down the players and allowed them to do well, I believe his constant changing may have hurt the hitters as much as Denbo’s philosophy hurt them.
I’ve been vocal on this board about Rios. I said ‘move him into first!!’ You said I was wrong, that Rios would come around and show power. It’s early days yet, but he is hitting for more power, and Gaston kept him at #3 behind Scutaro and Hill, both of whom set a very adequate table. You guys were right and I wasn’t. Part of being a great manager is knowing when and where to tinker and how to do it. Gaston’s air of calm, his relaxed demeanor, these qualities were missing in Gibby. I think probably because Gibby owed his position to the highly reactive JP Ricciardi whereas Gaston, I’m certain, doesn’t have to worry about the GM buzzing around his ears. You will think this last is another shot at JP, and it is. But not, for once, because I think he was doing a bad job. His team is working out so far. However my feeling is that he talks and acts before he thinks on many occasions. That Gibbons experienced the fall-out from that and passed his jitters along to the players. That Gaston feels infinitely more secure in his position and so is insulated from the drama. And in turn, the players on the field are also more relaxed, and so play better.
- isabella reyesThere’s nothing better than putting up a big number in the first game of a series and forcing the opposition to spend a bunch of relievers. Guillén’s hands are going to be tied for the rest of the weekend unless he gets a solid six innings from his starter today.
And Kudos to Brian Tallet, not only for his recent stand up appearances as a starter out of the pen, but for successfully negotiating Bell’s moving strike zone last night.
Great game Jays!
- Terry BradleyHey Mike – I’m with you on managers and their effect on teams – grossly overrated with respect to how their motivational skills either positive (Cito, Torre, Anderson) or negative (Martin, Williams, Weaver) effect a teams results.
I think what good managers do is identify the talent and play the right players. I think what Cito did was to identify that Adam Lind needed to play. He realized that Scutaro is a far more effective player than McDonald. This year he set up platoons in left and first. He made a fixed lineup which for the most part makes sense (Snider 9th being an exception).
Collectively that makes quite a difference. All the nonsense about calming influence is just that, but those 4 moves I’ve mentioned will add a significant amount to the offence and not detract much from the defence.
That’s where a manager earns his stripes – figuring out who should play. I think Cito’s contributions in that area have been significant.
By the way – I’m a sabermetric kind of fan – but I think sabemetricians sometimes get hung up in the tiny advantages that are gained in in game decisions (pinch hitting, pitching changes) versus the potential gain of a happy players. My guess is it’s a bit of a wash and probably doesn’t mean much in the big picture one way or the other.
MW: I think players should understand the tiny advantages gained in game decisions, but I know that’s a “perfect world” type view.
- Jim MaronLet me throw out an interesting number here. We all know Jays won’t play .700+ ball rest of the way, not even close. But if they play .575 ball from here on they’ll end up with 95 wins, not exactly impossible. Their unbelievable start has made things a little interesting and if most of the “IFs” pan out, they’ll be right there with the big boys of the A.L east. .575 ball from here on, that’s all it’ll take. just win every 8 out of 14 games and you are in the play-offs. No worries!
MW: You do realize that only three teams in the majors played .575 ball last year.
- BeburgMike, the Omar Vizquel & John McDonald conversation was phenomenal! Thank you for that. Johnny Mac is a class guy
MW: My pleasure.
- Kyle SI remember going to the Buerhle/Halladay game at the Rogers Centre like two seasons ago. Im pretty sure it was done in about 1:45. Fastest game I have ever been to! Any idea what the fastest game in recent history is?
MW: It was 1:50 and no, I don’t know. I tried to look it up, but couldn’t really get anywhere.
- SteveHey, Mike. Why do they call Chicago the Windy City, anyway? ;-) That Johnny Mac/Omar Vizquel interview is amazing…
Hey, who are the Jays playing for the, ahem, “rivalry” weekend this year? I had an idea: why not have the rivalry weekend be not necessarily interleague? That way, you could have Yankees/Mets, etc… but also have Toronto/Detroit, Philly/Pittsburgh, maybe a couple of others… You’d probably still end up with a few clunker match-ups, but not Toronto/Colorado!! I know mlb will never do it, just wondering what you think of the idea.
-Nick
MW: I don’t love interleague play, because it messes with the overall schedule. The Jays play the Braves on rivalry weekend this year.
- nickHow long will it be before Jeremy Accardo gets a chance to pitch in the majors? His Triple-A numbers aren’t that bad and he’s being pushed down the list to give younger players big-league practice.
Even if he’s not in full form, this is a guy who pitched 21 consecutive scoreless innings and recorded 30 saves only a year and a half ago. Doesn’t that at least buy the guy a bullpen job in May if he keeps his minor league ERA under 3?
It feels like the club is washing its hands of him (and Brian Wolfe).
MW: It shouldn’t feel that way, they’re not.
- AndrewThe thing I love about this blog entry: you’re not kidding about the Buerhle-Halladay match-up.
I (mis?)remember two: one where I turned the radio on and it was already over when I was expecting to be able to listen to at least a good 3 innings of baseball. The second where the Jays won 2-0 despite not having a baserunner.
Good times. The forecast from the good people at http://www.wunderground.com (search Chicago, click hourly) are putting the Thunderstorms between 7-10PM; so we may well get to see/hear another classic matchup Sunday. In the interest of baseball, let’s all do our own private rain-dances.
Best,
Christopher Taylor
p.s. Arnsberg – pitching coach god or merely demi-god?
MW: Arnsberg – very good pitching coach.
- Christopher TaylorHello Michael
I don’t post often on here, but I do read it everyday. What is with all the negativity in this town? People should be on cloud 9. Their record is keeping my spirits up as I recover from some strange virus. The record is what it is. Nobody goes 162 – 0. Do other cities go through all this criticism. Also B. J. Ryan is on the DL. Does it really matter what the reason is. He is there to straighten himself out. Maybe my mind has forgotten, but I don’t recall so much criticism back in the late eighties or early nineties.
MW: You’ve forgotten. Before 1992, the Jays were unfairly labelled as a team of chokers that couldn’t win when it really mattered.
- StanMike is Travis Snider the best 9th spot hitter in the league? Not that I would want the lineup changed when they are playing like this,but where do you see him batting towards the end of the season?
Thanks
MW: I would think he’d get up to 6th or 7th by season’s end. And yes, he’s the best 9th hitter in the game.
- HariHey, Mike! It’s true you can listen to the minor league games via SportsJuice.com. Although we are on the east coast, we listen to all of the 51s games. Good things we are retired!
- Bonniemike if you think managers do so little, why do you think they make so much money?
if you were a gm would you try to get a manager really cheap? so you could free up more for players since you don’t think they do that much anyways?
I agree with you, I don’t think managers do that much either, I just don’t understand why they can make so much money.
MW: Managers don’t make that much money, relative to the players.
- joshI’d like to remind all blog readers to check out the Omar Vizquel and Johnny Mac interview, posted on the fan590 homepage. You can find it on the right hand side, where it says Audio on Demand
If you’re on this webpage and your computer has sound, there’s no reason not to listen. Johnny Mac was absolutely hilarious. How’s it possible not to like this guy?
- CarlosYou said that nothing happened between you two yet you say you hate him as a person??? what gives mike?
MW: When did I say I hated him? How can you put words in my mouth when what I’m actually saying is right on the screen in front of you?
- TomisEnjoy your Radio show, Mike.
A couple of quick thoughts to share:
First, do you have sufficient interest in other sports such that you could host a more general sports talk show such as Bob McCowan?
Second, when the Jays were being compared to the ’03 Giants, I thought, “What do the 1903 Giants have to do with anything!” That’s what you get when Roy Howell is still your favourite Jays third baseman.
Take care. No reply required.
MW: 1 – I used to cover everything. I covered the Raptors’ first game, the last game at the Gardens and the first at the ACC, lots of Leafs, Raptors, Argos, university sports, all kinds of things. However, I love being on the baseball track.
- Ed in ScarboroughMike,
If (when) tonight’s game gets rained out, will Burres return to the minors?
What chance is there that Jeroloman makes it to the bigs before JPA? He has been doing great @ AA, and has the defensive skills of a big leaguer. He also has a great OBP, as I heard Alex Anthopolis say on the broadcast. That was really cool; to hear some front office musings during the game, BTW.
PS: Snider’s nickname is “Moonraker”, and it has been for some time. Pass it on.
Thanks.
MW: Burres will be here for close to a month. There’s a chance Jeroloman makes it first, sure. The fact that he’s in AA doesn’t mean he’s “below” Arencibia. It just means that the Jays want them both to play as much as possible.
- Andy McHey Mike
How are you?;)(just joking)
Should the Jays bad attendance so far be a concern? This is the first year I’ve ever really looked at it this early and the Jays are 27th in the league so far. Is this normal for Toronto in April and do the crowds pick up after hockey, or should we expect to see the Jays bottom 5 in league attendance this year? The reason that I’m really noticing is even with the best team in baseball, the crowds are still 13,000-16,000 pretty consistently.
Thanks Mike, love the show and the blog.
MW: It’s very normal for April. Sad, but normal.
- Benyo mike do youthink that the jays will be able to keep it up
my guess is not a chance but i can still hope right
and also do you still think we should still keep scutaro as lead off it he continues to hit as poorly as he did the last couple of games (not including yesterday), i think he is gonna come back to earth pretty soon, and who else would we have to replace him if we do go that route?
MW: There’s really no better option than Scutaro up top, except for Lyle Overbay, and they’re not going to do that.
- Daniel DMike, I didnt get to see alot of the game but wow was it a route, I continued to check the score and boxscore to see who was doing the hitting and the big bombs but I was pleasantly surprised when I saw at the time 12-0 and not a single ball left the park until Jose Bautista hit one out in the 9th. Poor Lyle didnt get in on the action but he has been hitting the ball well the last week or so and hopefully he and the rest of the guys keep up the great job they are doing, Tallet is seeming to be a mighty good replacement so far.
Thanks for the blog and time as always Mike
P.S. Loved the audio with Omar Vizquel and Johnny Mac, they seem to be quite close and I thought that was very entertaining to hear.
- Chrisanother thing what happened 2 accardo still injured?????
MW: Nope, he’s in AAA.
- Daniel DMike…Life is good…..13-5 sitting in first place, 25 Celsius sitting in the backyard reading Joe Torre’s “The Yankee Years” with some cold Sleemans and the Battalion off to the OHL Final…Had a chance to read Torre’s book Mike?…I won’t spoil it for you Mike if you haven’t, but a friendly warning. There’s a lot of pages dedicated to Jeter and that may not sit too well with you.
MW: I haven’t read it.
- chris m.If the Jays were to find a way to give Scutaro an off-day and McDonald a start, the lineup could shift to this (against a RH):
Overbay
Hill
Rios
Wells
Lind
Rolen
Snider
Barajas
McDonald
Also, it would make sense to play McDonald on a day when Doc is starting and a lot of groundballs would be expected.
MW: It won’t happen.
- ScottMike,
I have to agree that most callers calling about Wells, Rios and Overbay are irrational when they say that they are terrible. But I also have to disagree when you say that they are all good or great players.
Couldn’t sleep last night so I did a little homework and figured out that in 2008 an average player stats for a 162 game played season (based on major league totals for all the Teams/30 Teams/9 players)would be 617 AB, 84 R, 163 H, 33 2B, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 61 W, 122 K, 0.333 OBP, 0.416 SLG & 0.264 AVG. I then came up with a rating system based on the top 270 players (9 players x 30 teams) and pro-rated, for a 162 game played season, the career stats of the above 3, plus about 8 other current and hall of fame players to make sure my rating system held a bit of water. My fictional average player had a rating of 30(Hall of famer being 10 or lower, allstar 15-11, good 16-22, average 23-30, not bad 31-39, spare part 40-50).
Overbay had a rating of 25. Youkilis (20), Pujols (5), Howard (17), C.Pena (25), N.Johnson (25), C.Kotchman (26), Delgado (16), McGwire (15*), Gerhig (4)
Wells (25), Beltran (22), C.Young (32), Hunter (27), Damon (23), A.Jones (24), Mantle (10), Mayes (13)
Rios (29), Braun (17), Markakis (21), Ordonez (14), Ethier (22), Werth (26), Drew (18), Dye (23), Pence (25), Ruth (5), Gwynn (21).
This actually puts all 3 of the Jays in the average range with Wells and Overbay on the good side and Rios on the not bad side. I think your past averages are a realistic expectation of the future until you surpass them. Until they have been surpassed we could set the expactations as high as we want, doesn’t mean they will ever be met or be realistic.
Based on the numbers Wells (What I thought of him before this) and Overbay (surprised me), are good not great, but Rios is average at best (again, what I thought of him).
Since Overbay hits lower in the order, I’m ok with him. Wells is not a #4, should be a #3, Rios is a #6 or 7, not a #3 hitter, (I curse the Giants for not biting every day).
I am not saying get rid of any of them, just lets talk realistic about them on both sides of the argument. As it stands leave everything alone, the games are a blast to watch.
But going forward, next year Wells is going to make 21 mil, Overbay 7.5 mil+, and Rios 6.4mil+. That will be, at minimum, 35 million of hopefully at least a 100 mil payroll. 35% committed to 3 players. If we couldn’t have Delgado taking up 20% of our payroll 6 or 7 years ago, how can we do it with Wells now? And how can we have 35% taken up by these 3? You have to admit something will have to give.
Lastly, still got all the calculations from my insomnia if you want to peruse them.
MW: I really don’t. I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around this. Is it too simplistic just to divide the MLB team averages by nine to determine the average player’s output? Could be, I’m really not sure. As for Vernon – not a # 4, should be a # 3? That does it for me right there, because I don’t think there’s any baseball universe in which Vernon Wells should be the third-place hitter for a contending team.
- ThomaFalse advertising by Ty…your blog isn’t the first on the list, “NFL draft blog” is. I want my money back.
MW: Cheque’s in the mail.
- HowieWouldn’t it have been something if Barrett was healthy in this series with the White Soxs.
MW: Soxs? Yes, it would have been very cool.
- Nick "The Greek"Hey Mike,
The Jays have had such a good start and I keep telling myself the starting pitching will eventually let them down. The bullpen is strong by committee and the offense is the best. So, when in the season do we make them legit? I think if they’re in the hunt or within a couple of games come the 60 game mark I feel we have to take them serious. I’m I crazy?
MW: No, you’m not.
- Jeff KennedyWhile the bats are getting most of the recognition, the Jays are winning because of consistent play from all three aspects of the game. How’re these numbers?
1st in Al in BA with .302.
Boston in second with .279.
1st in Al in fielding percentage with .990
KC in 2nd with .988
And the number that surprised me the most, is that our carousel of starters and dominant bullpen has produced the 3rd best era in the Al. How about them Blue Jays??
MW: Indeed – but why are so many of you actually as though fielding percentage means anything?
- Matthew FabbricinoHey Mike, just wondering why Las Vegas is our new farm team this yaer?
MW: Because Syracuse jumped ship to get the Mets to move there, but it didn’t work.
- MattDave in Oakville,
- DiegoI also wrote to Mike on the blog and said Cito was going to be re-hired. But I don’t keep bringing it up! You seem like a nice guy, I like hearing you call in. Enough about Cito.
Hey Mike,
Don’t you find it weird that no other team picked up Cito as their manager when he was fired by the Jays? Or do you think he was offered jobs that we didn’t hear about? Can you ask him?
MW: I know he was offered at least one (I think two) jobs that he turned down, but yes, you’d think he would have been able to write his own ticket once the Jays let him go.
- benThe Blue Jays have a remarkable number of left handed pitchers. It seems whenever somebody is hurt another left hander comes up. Do you know of any other team now or in history that had as many left handers as the Jays do now?
Great work on the blog…
MW: No, but I’m sure there have been a few.
- Jay D AHi Mike,
I’m amazed how many people assume that all of Janssen, MacGowan, Marcum and Accardo are going to bounce back to be 100% and where they were before they hurt their arms. Yes, surgical procedures have improved but it is far from a sure thing to make this assumption. I think if 1 or even 2 of those pitchers ended up being successful pitchers at this level again, the Jays management would be stoked.
I’m sure the Jays are more realistic about this than the average fan.
What do you think?
MW: I think that’s part of the process of this year (except for Marcum as the plan went, anyway). To see how those guys could bounce back and see what you have for 2010.
- OzRobWhy would they bring up Burres? his major league stats are awful. Why did they even sign this guy? Hes going to make their pitching worse. Its the same thing with Camp. When the Jays signed him I wondered why b/c hes awful but hes been ok for them. They should really look at major league track record when signing players though.
MW: It’s the same thing with Camp, and yet Camp has been very successful since the Jays brought him in.
- aviHey Mike. I wasn’t offended after you told me my spelling was atrocious but I was suprised because I have been listening to Jaystalk since 2002 and we have had some good conversations and debates on the phone and before your non responce I stopped reading the blog for the first time ever. I also thought you would accept my comment in good humour because I have heard you say over the radio that math isn’t your strongest subject. It’s not mine either but baseball is(both of ours)! I enjoy listening to your stubbornness and putting callers in their place when it’s required but if you want to be pompous with your loyal readers and/or listeners then it shouldn’t offend you to get some back in return. This is the last I will says on the matter if I continue to listen and read the blog, but if you want to add a reply I’m all eyes.
MW: I don’t even remember the comment that I didn’t post, but like I said, it must have been pretty insulting or offensive for me not to post it.
- Matt from BCMIke,
Watching the Yankees and Sox whaling away on each other this afternoon and I am troubled; I can’t decide which team I want to lose more. Fingers crossed for infinite extra innings.
At any rate, I’ve heard you mention on the show that the Gold Glove is a poor way to illustrate the defensive ability of a player because the folks who choose the winners usually put too much emphasis on a players offensive ability.
Bearing that in mind, which players would you award the 2008 AL “Platinum Glove.”
MW: The Fielding Bible knows the score better than I do on that. And by the way, I always want the Yankees to lose.
- Jamie#14… I think… Derek Bell?
MW: Good call.
- Dilly in DundasHi Mike,
3 years ago you said Gregg Zaun was a “superior” player to Bengie Molina and you adamantly supported JPs decision to oust Molina in favor of Zaun. You also felt that Molina could only have succes in SF if Bonds were in the lineup. How do you feel about your statement now? Personally I feel you were way off the mark with that call. Zaun, of course is having another “dud” season whereas Bengie continues to swing a very hot stick.
Thanks
MW: Bengie had a horrible year when he was with the Jays, and had been declining offensively and defensively his last season with the Angels, too. As a catcher, in the shape he’s in, and at his age, there was no earthly reason to believe he’d turn things around.
- Mateodoes it trouble you that the jays can’t sweep any series? yeah i know we are winning and sweeping would be farfetched or greedy, but last year they had trouble putting together win streaks and sweeping games? they seem to be the same this year as well
MW: This may just win for comment of the year so far.
- Stache MackenzieMW: Bengie had a horrible year when he was with the Jays.
Wow Mike, 19 Homers and 57 RBIs in 117 games from a catcher is “horrible” man you are tough. I guess Yadier Molina, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada have all been pretty horrible over the pat few years.
Maybe saying “I was wrong” would be easier.
MW: It would be easier, if I was indeed wrong. But Molina had a .319 obp, barely threw out 15% of the runners who attempted to steal on him, couldn’t block a ball in the dirt and moved awfully poorly behind the plate. But hey, if you want to just reak it down to homers and RBIs, that’s your prerogative.
- MateoHey Mike
This is my first blog of the year and I just wanted to say that the Jays have had a great start, but I wanted to ask you if you think they will keep this up through the all-star break. With the AL East coming up and Boston red hot I highly doubt they will but I would like your opinion. Thanks Mike more blogs to come.
MW: This is actually my blog, not yours. Regardless, what does Boston’s nine-game win streak have to do with whethere the Jays will keep this up? You don’t actually think the Red Sox will still be this hot when they meet up with the Jays in late May, do you?
- Justin Jaysyo ike question you said i dont see a contending team having wells hit 4 what did you mean because i cannot see him hitting 4th because he is not a real bopper, like a 40 HR (DUNN)
However Wells is a 30 (best) 100 RBI (BEST)
and do you think that the jays will need to sign one of the following next year to compete with the Sox or Rays
-Lead off guy (I cannot see scutaro hitting like this)
-Big Bopper (Thome style)
MW: Huh?
- Daniel DMW,
doesn’t the fact overbay has essentially only faced righties inflate his numbers when considering him versus hill for being the best hitter so far?
B
MW: Kind of, but he should only be facing righties. The fact that Hill is a full-timer is a notch in his belt above Overbay, though, true.
- BRe #23 — LY — Yes, Last year. Along with TY (This Year), a very common set of abbreviations for Accountants.
MW: And I was supposed to know that how? You have to write for your audience.
- Normyou say that overbay is hitting better than hill this year but you don’t really tell the whole story. Relying purely on onbase + slugging % doesn’t necessarily tell you who is hitting better.
You forget that Hill is hitting righties and lefties this year and overbay is only hitting righties. So he is contributing about half as much. Looking at total hits is reasonably important because of this fact.
I’d take what hill as done over overbay so far this year considering he is contributing everygame and not just against righties. If Overbay was facing righties and lefties his numbers would surely be different.
MW: They certainly would, and likely not as good as Hill’s. Fair enough.
- joshHey Mike,
I also loved the Johnny Mac-Visquel conversation the other night. Johnny Mac came off as quite the class act, and it was really entertaining.
Two quick questions for you:
1) I could swear that during a Jays TV broadcast a few weeks ago the announcers mentioned that whenever John McDonald started, Cito was considering using either Aaron Hill or Travis Snider as the lead-off hitter. Does using Snider there for these situations seem like a possibility at all, or must I have mis-heard the announcer?
2) Since Millar has struggled a bit defensively at first base, is it possible that the Jays will swap him and Lind against lefties, allowing Millar to be the DH and giving Lind a chance ot play first?
Thanks very much!
MW: 1 – I have never heard Cito mention the possibility of Snider leading off. 2 – I can’t imagine Lind would be a defensive upgrade over Millar at first, having not played there in years.
- BretYeah, the goal of my post wasn’t to imply that I’d gone out on a limb with my projection, Mike. Quite the opposite, actually. I was trying to say that due to all of the uncertainty with respect to the young players and injuries on this team it’s an especially hard club to make an accurate projection for in terms of win total. If almost everything goes right they are a 100-win team, if almost everything goes wrong they are probably still around a 75-win team. The fact that some prognosticators were putting them down for 67 wins just blew my mind.
MW: But that could be said about just about any team.
- Nick WernhamMike,
I’m very concerned about the in-game strategic mistakes that Cito is making. Even a bad manager can win games as Kris has pointed out. Travis Snider is the future of the franchise and he should be hitting at every opportunity. Also, what about the pitch counts. And bunting is bad. And Cito doesn’t use the platoon advantages. And there’s nothing in Moneyball about ‘confidence’ and I think that doesn’t exist.
Can we get John Gibbons back? Or Carlos Tosca? They understood a stats-based analysis and how the players are just stats producers.
Why doesn’t JP bring Gibby or Tosca back?
MW: It’s funny that you’re trying to be sarcastic but you still say things like “what about the pitch counts”, which refers to nothing. There’s been no pitcher yanked at the wrong time because of pitch count this year. And you don’t think Travis Snider should be playing more?
- Ricky RomeroThis is true, Mike. However, I think that given the injury issues that the Jays have had over the past several years and their reliance on young (and in most cases quite talented), but unproven pitchers and position players.
A team with players who are not coming back from injury issues and have had a more sustained period of big league success (or lack thereof) is easier to project than a team with a lot of young players and some key components that are coming back from injuries (Hill, Rolen, even Wells to an extent… what if those pesky hamstrings start giving him trouble again?).
I think that when the “experts” make projections it’s mostly just for fun, but generally you can use tools like PECOTA as the basis for fairly accurate predictions. I just think that the 2009 Jays are a special case where those tools are a lot less valuable than they are when applied to some other teams (though certainly the Jays are not the only team in this particular boat).
MW: What is true?
- Nick Wernhamk i made this comment before so im gonna clarify
yo ike question you said i dont see a contending team having wells hit 4 what did you mean because i cannot see him hitting 4th because he is not a real bopper, like a 40 HR (DUNN)
However Wells is a 30 (best) 100 RBI (BEST)
and do you think that the jays will need to sign one of the following next year to compete with the Sox or Rays
-Lead off guy (I cannot see scutaro hitting like this)
-Big Bopper (Thome style)
Do you think wells is a 4 spot hitter i believe that these hitters hould be boppers (Such as a Jim Thome Style, David Ortiz as well)I dont see vernon as this type of player, but more of a 30HR-100RBi player MAX.
Also, Since I agree with you about the jays not contending this year I believe that even if our pitching comes back (MARCUM McGOWAN)successfully from injury they still will not have the hitting because i believe that a majority of the jays are hitting well above where they should be, and will fall back down to earth essentially (SCUTARO)
So i was wondering, who do you think we need to sign to become one of the top teams in the AL east
The options i am putting out are a
-Leadoff Hitter (preferably a SS, but then again not picky)
Big Bopper (a 40 HR gun typical bopper like a Adum Dunn, David Ortiz)
Hope this Clarifies it a little 4 ya
MW: Gotcha. You do realize that David Ortiz hit 23 homers last year and hasn’t hit one yet this season, right? Anyway, no I don’t think Wells is best suited to be a clean-up hitter, I think his best spot in the line-up is 5th, and he may eventually get there. I think they have their bopper, and his name is Travis Snider. I agree with you, too, that they could use a shortstop who has a real shot to be a lead off man. Scutaro is definitely getting the job done so far, but whether that continues is a big question and regardless, he’s not under contract beyond this season.
- Daniel DMW: It would be easier, if I was indeed wrong. But Molina had a .319 obp, barely threw out 15% of the runners who attempted to steal on him, couldn’t block a ball in the dirt and moved awfully poorly behind the plate. But hey, if you want to just break it down to homers and RBIs, that’s your prerogative.
Yeah, I guess his 2 gold gloves are nothing compared to Zaunies 5 – buy the Orioles must be glad they have Zaunie, what a year he is having!
MW: Sigh.
- MateoRe #71
Sorry about the obscure abbreviation, Mike. I guess I made the mistake of thinking it was more common than it is. Sort of like how you sometimes use obscure sarcasm, expecting us all to get it right away.
MW: The difference is that I don’t expect you all to get it.
- Normre: Beburg’s Comment (#31) and your reply:
MW: You do realize that only three teams in the majors played .575 ball last year.
AtSG: Under Gaston, the Jays played 0.580 ball.
MW: Yes, but that’s not a full season.
- Alan the stat geekMW: Scutaro has indeed been a blessing this season. His defense has taken a giant leap forward, to go with the great lead-offishness.
I’m not sure if you’re saying his defense has improved this season. It was excellent last season at every position he played.
Fastest game I have ever been to! Any idea what the fastest game in recent history is?
MW: It was 1:50 and no, I don’t know. I tried to look it up, but couldn’t really get anywhere.
August 10th, 1944 at Crosley Field. One hour 15 minutes. Boston Braves won 2-0. Red Barrett pitched a complete game throwing just 58 pitches. He allowed two hits and zero walks. This game is also the record for the fewest pitches thrown for a complete game.
Here is a link – http://www.baseball-almanac.com/boxscore/08101944.shtml
MW: I wouldn’t call that recent history. And Scutaro was solid everywhere he played last year, his defense at short is far better this year than it was last year.
- KenMW: Indeed – but why are so many of you actually as though fielding percentage means anything?
Because it is easily available, and experts like Jamie Campbell tell us it means a lot. The average Joe or broadcaster doesn’t even know about DER (defensive efficiency rate). Actually fielding percentage is more a measure of the official scorer that the players on the field.
MW: Fielding percentage means nothing.
- KenIt’s true that injuries (or poor play due to a players recovering from an injury) and break-out performances by young players can happen to any team.
- Nick Wernhamwell, bob from burlington, come to section 124 of the rogers centre, and speak with me, if you want more details. How many games have you been to at the rogers centre this year. I bet it hasnt been the complete season. Does BOB want Noah’s contacts so he can ask him, himself. I hate when people say things like that. What, normal people can’t get lucky sometimes and come across something special every once and awhile. I am pretty sure lacking effort in training, does not exceed god given talent and baseball skills development in the cages and off field BOB.
- paoloIn fact bob, i would highly appreciate if you came to section 124, ask the ushers most know me by name, having been an ex-usher myself. Don’t dare question what happened, up until meeting Noah i have never once tooted my horn about things like this. P.S section 124 is where all players friends and family sit, and thus maybe if you sit there you could grasp some knowledge.
MW: You need to calm down, Paolo.
- paoloi know, just venting, sorry mike, Go Jays.
- paolo