4:50 PM Eastern
It’s a shame that the lasting memory from this game isn’t the wonderful performance by Roy Halladay, showing Cliff Lee who is, in actuality, The Man (the robot? the cyborg?) as far as American League pitchers are concerned. Nor is it Marco Scutaro’s big 1-for-1 day with three walks and a sac fly, or even Jason Frasor coming in on his white horse to strike out Victor Martinez with his amazing new change-up.
Nope. It’s B.J. Ryan. Ryan and how awful he was and how all the questions that he seemingly took a big step towards answering on Tuesday night are now all valid again. Ryan’s velocity was fine today. Relatively, at least, he was throwing a consistent 88. But he couldn’t throw a strike and when he did, he got raked.
B.J. faced six hitters, coming in for the bottom of the ninth with a four-run lead, and only retired one. Luckily for him, that one came on a ground ball after a leadoff walk, so he got two outs out of it. But after the double play ball that was scorched off the bat of Kelly Shoppach, Ryan gave up a line single to centre by Ben Francisco, then walked back-to-back hitters to load the bases for Mark DeRosa. Now, DeRosa had looked awful over the course of his last eight at-bats, striking out four times, so maybe he was due. But he belted a line drive that one-hopped the wall in left to clear the bases, aided in part by Jose Bautista playing the carom like the proverbial bag of toys.
Mercifully, Cito Gaston came out to yank Ryan there, and brought in Jason Frasor and his brand-spanking-new change-up to save the day.
So what happens now with Ryan? He’s not hurt, so they can’t put him on the disabled list - at least they have said he’s not hurt, maybe he is, or could conveniently become so to give them an out. Does he get the next save opportunity? He shouldn’t, but the excuse could always be made that “it wasn’t a save opportunity and closers don’t pitch well when it’s not a save opportunity.” The Jays have four other guys in the bullpen who I believe are capable of closing in Frasor, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson and Brandon League, so there are options. Assuming that the Jays are being truthful about Ryan’s health - a big assumption, I know - the next move is Cito’s.
Thanks to everyone for hanging with me through last night’s 3 1/2 hour rain delay programme. It’s always fun to do that show, though it was brutal timing yesterday because this little 24-48-hour bug really knocked me for a loop. It was the only time since I have had this gig that I really felt that I wasn’t going to be able to finish a broadcast. I was thisclose to getting Norm Rumack to come in and take the post-game, but Scott Douglas brught a bucket into the studio, just in case, and I soldiered on. You can really hear how badly I was doing in the post-game JaysTalk. But a good 11 hours of sleep later and I felt much better today. Even actually ate some food!
Speaking of the rain delay programme, here it is, if you have 3 1/2 hours to spare:
And here’s the post-game JaysTalk from last night (no JaysTalk today because we had to get out for the FC game):
Remember, tune us in Sunday afternoon at 12:30 PM Eastern for the pre-game, 1:05 first pitch with David Purcey trying to build on his strong first outing against Anthony Reyes. The Jays are looking for the sweep, having now won four of their last 20 in Cleveland!
Also tomorrow night, we’ll have The Blue Jays This Week for you at 7:00 PM Eastern, featuring Travis Snider, Ricky Romero and 10 questions with Adam Lind.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Please stick to baseball and never provide golf updates again.
“Mike Weir shot a 7 over 69″ Come on Wilner… what kinda golf course is par 62… that would be a 79 he shot
MW: Wow, string me up, I said 69 instead of 79.
- ChrisI say give him another chance, if possible the same sort of scenario of ‘get work, not a save op’. Mess up again this badly & come up with a new plan
w/o BJ as a legitimate option until he ‘gets his groove back’
if it’s possible. The proverbial 3 strikes & he’s out. I think he came back from the knife way too
soon & it’s all collapsing in on
itself now. Anywho, how about them Jays??….wow what a start, keep it goin.
MW: I don’t think it has anything to do with how quickly Ryan came back from the Tommy John, but I’m with you otherwise.
- fatguyHaving B.J. out on the mound to close games cringes me.
MW: Can one be cringed?
- TommyHey Mike,
BJ hasn’t been performing too well recently. Do you think he may be demoted to AAA once Janssen or Accardo are major league ready?
Dave
MW: No. He can’t be demoted without his permission.
- Dave WingHey Mike, glad to see you back for another year, absolutely love your blogs! Another great game by the Jays today! I truly believe having Cito around for a full season will do wonders for the Jays young players. In saying this I believe it is time for Cito to dramatically shorten BJ Ryan’s leash until he gains control of his stuff. In his first 2 outings the bats were able to bail him out, BUT we need to understand the Jays are not a good enough team to be expected to be able to bail BJ out constantly. This team needs all the wins they can get early on in the season and we can not afford to continue to throw BJ out their and risk having him perform like he has in his first two appearances if we are to have any chance at a playoff spot.
MW: Ahhhhhhh, playoff talk in the first week, I love it! But you’re right, the leash on B.J. has to be tightened up, and quickly.
- KyleIf Ryan’s problems aren’t linked to his surgery, then what can be done? He looked really bad out there and uncomfortable as hell. I realize that he is the ’star closer’ but maybe better to do what you refer to in the blog, and stick him on the diplomatic dl with a sore arm or whatever while he spends his time with a sports shrink. Because it looks to me as if he’s lost his confidence and I’m not sure that’s particularly easy to fix in a hurry. Scott Downs can take over while he’s recuperating from this little mental blip.
Otherwise they played really well again, and that was lovely to see. Except for Rios. Who, according to Tabler, is having stance problems when he’s on the mound. I do hope that clears up as well…
MW: Ryan doesn’t seem the type, to me, to ever have any confidence issues.
- isabella reyesHello Mike,
As I was saying to my friend when League came in, Cito was making a mistake in bringing in a Hawaiian in weather like that! I thought that Frasor (he’s from Chicago, no?) would have been better suited in that situation. As we know well over here, a Breton handles the wind and cold as well as anyone.
But it is not to complain, as the Jays have been in winning fashion of late. And hey - Frasor was in today. He looked chilly but did rub his hand against his pant several times as if to show he had too much sweat!
Do you think I am wrong to think that the weather can be of effect in such a manner?
- Pierre from Blois
MW: It’s an interesting thought, but if you can’t trust a guy in cold weather, you don’t want him in the playoffs, which would be a bit of an issue.
- PierreWhat is it about different minor leagues that makes one more offensive oriented and another more defensive/pitching? I know that in Colorado Springs it is the elevation, but is it just that all the teams play at higher elevations or is it different rules or ballpark sizes or is it just one of those things that nobody can really explain but always seems to happen?
MW: It’s mostly elevations in the PCL, but also some ballparks.
- ColinWow, I paid absolutely no attention to Frasor during the off season and spring training - but that was quite the series of changeups he threw to V-Mart there…
Watching on the tube, there was no mention of when he started warming up, but I found it odd that he was even ready to bail out Ryan - why not just turf him out there to mop up the 9th given that it wasn’t a save situation?
Or is there a chance that Cito was “testing” Ryan a bit in a non-critical situation? (Well it was non-critical for a while anyway.)
MW: I don’t think it was a test for Ryan, given the fact that Downs pitched the 8th with the same four-run lead, it had more to do with the fact that he hadn’t pitched since Tuesday. I’m glad that Frasor was up and ready, though.
- James (from the 'Shwa)Send him to the minors see if he can get his groove down there, if he can’t, put him out of his misery and release him.
MW: The situation isn’t quite that critical yet.
- BleuJayYou are not counting all the times that b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, and k happened. All you are looking at is the number of occasions when (a) happened.
And for the record Alomar had 16 sac bunts in 1991. I suspect Gillick told Cito to “smarten up” after that season. And the sac bunts decreased by 63% in 1992 and a further 50% in 1993. I suspect that 1991 is the year that really sticks in my mind, when Alomar was giving up a lot of at bats. I just remember Cito doing it, not the exact season.
MW: Unfortunately, there’s no way to go back and check how often Alomar was sent up to bunt but didn’t execute successfully, or showed bunt but then didn’t. Regardless, that was still a major exaggeration on your part.
I really don’t understand you. You come out with the 92 and 93 sac bunt stats, and totally ignore 1991. You also totally ignore all the times that Cito asked Alomar to bunt and a “sac bunt” was not the end result. You also refer to bunts that go for infield hits and walks as “not executing successfully”. Then you end off by criticizing me for pointing this out.
As usual when you are wrong, you quickly get away from the stats or hard evidence, and start attacking the posters on your blog who point out errors and inconsistencies. Not good.
MW: I didn’t attack you, nor did you prove your point. It’s clearly NOT a fact that Gaston asked Alomar to bunt every time that Devon White led off an inning with a double, and yet you’re not willing to back down, but not willing to actually prove your point, either.
- KenMW - “Now, DeRosa had looked awful over the course of his last eight at-bats, striking out four times, so maybe he was due.”
There’s that “law of averages” again. The one that says that a guy who is 0/8 is more likely to get a hit in the 9th at bat than the guy who is 6/8. I guess this means that Lind is due for one heck of a slump. Wonder why it hasn’t started by now. Funny how DeRosa wasn’t “due” in at bat #5,or #6, or #7, but only when BJ was in there with 88 mph fastball was DeRosa due on at bat #8. That’s sheer bad luck for BJ.
MW: Sigh.
- KenGreat to see the Jays off to a Herculean start. I’m sure people are going to be piling high on B.J. Ryan, so there’s no need to add fuel to the fire. He’ll get things under control - the question is, at what point?
I’d be interested to know what the atmosphere in the clubhouse was like after today’s game. I’m sure the guys are eager to bolster Ryan’s shaken confidence (especially given their 5-1 record), but there must have been some nervous glances after the meltdown.
Mike: This is the first time I’ve ever commented, but I listen to nearly every Jays game on the radio. Kudos to yourself, Jerry and Alan. I’d put that team up against any in baseball. Great job and thanks!
MW: Thank you! Obviously, I can’t answer your question about the clubhouse, not being there.
- ChrisHi Mike
- marioI don’t want to get on the Ryan was another bad signing by Ricciardi as someone mentioned on a talk show.Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think he has blown 10 saves since he has been here.That being said I have lost almost all confidence in him.The velocity is not the concern but the pin point accurracy he had that first year in Toronto is what seems to be missing.If he cannot dot the corners he will not be the dominant closer he once was.I hope Gaston does the right thing unfortunately I don’t know what that is.Now to the positives Doc was his usual self and the bats with hardly any rbi production from the3 and 4 hitters has been great.Lind has been impressive espeacially against a tough lefty in his own yard.LET’S KEEP IT GOING!!!
Go Jays!!!
Gotcha: “Speaking of the rain delay programme, *hear* it is, if you have 3 1/2 hours to spare”
Glad you’re feeling better old bean.
MW: Yep. You got me. It’s been fixed.
- Ben AssyntMike,
Before the season started, I told everyone who would listen that BJ is DONE as a major league pitcher. As a one pitch pitcher, he relies soley on his fastball. Unfortunately, BJ will never regain the speed and power his arm once had due to the surgery. I believe it’s a matter of weeks (or maybe even days), until the Blue Jays release him. What do you think?
MW: I think you’re way off base. First in that he’s a one-pitch pitcher (he has a very good slider when he’s right), and second, most pitchers throw as hard or harder post-Tommy John than they did before. The Jays aren’t going to give Ryan nearly $20 million to go away when he can likely be fixed.
- JustinHi Mike,
What do you think Lind’s ceiling is? Do you think he could become the kind of who puts up numbers similar to Overbay’s in 20066 with less doubles, or something more, less?
MW: I think he can be a guy who hits in the .290s with 25+ homers on a regular basis.
- Hulk HoganI think it’s an easy decision. BJ should temporarily lose his closer role. He should be in middle relief until he gets his confidence back. The team is fortunate to have won both games in which he has appeared and should definitely take a proactice approach. I am very surprised at how well this team is playing and my 75 win prediction may end up looking very foolish. I think that one of Cecil or Jannsen can take Richmonds spot eventually but I am CAUTIOUSLY optimistic that Romero can pitch well. His minor league numbers don’t suggest it. I hope you have a sense of humor and will answer this question. Who is faster? Kevin Millar or Benji Molina?
MW: We were actually talking about that in the studio yesterday. The answer? I don’t know, but I’m sure I could beat either one in a footrace, which is pretty scary.
- DomenickHi Mike,
As I watch BJ Ryan, he has absolutely no command right now and looks very very hittable. He has nothing right now and should not be in the closers role right now. Given that that very slow starts have plagued the Jays for several years now, they cannot afford to throw games away especially given their hot start this season. In this division, you have to rack up the wins when you can adn it appears the Jays can take advantage of this hot start to get a head start on the Yanks and Sox and Rays. I say hand te job to Scotty Downs until BJ is right because right now, he is a shell of his former self, velocity or no velocity. It is way to risky to use him in critical spots now.
Mike, do you think a stint in Las Vegas would become an option should things continue to be rough with BJ (I know its early but, now is the time to work out these issues) or do you think Cito will just let him work it out at the major league level but in a lesser role?. It just seems BJs effective slider is gone and his fastball is flat. Without his slider, an 88 mph fastball will be hammered all over the park. The Jays have the potential to put up a long winning streak so hopefully Cito gives the saves to Downs. In addtion to the slow starts of recent years, another thing that plagued the Jays was their inability to string together a long winning streak. it woul be a shame to waste this early offensive success with blown saves.
MW: It would be, indeed, but let’s all remember that there’s only been one blown save and that the Jays are 2-0 in games in which Ryan appears. I don’t think a stint in Vegas is an option, because Ryan would have to agree to it, and he won’t, but I do think that a lesser role in the bullpen is likely while he works things out.
- IanHi Mike,
There were questions marks in the past as to whether Jason Frasor had the necessary mentallity required to be a closer and was prone to imploding. He’s also possibly the least used reliever on the Jays over the last couple of years, it appeared John Gibbons simply didn’t trust him. Is the new Change-up enough to overcome all that?. Great if he can because the pen is looking stretched without an effective Ryan at the back end.
MW: I don’t think the bullpen is looking stretched at all. I don’t think a new pitch is enough to change Frasor’s mentality, but if it helps him avoid the 2-3 meltdowns he has per season that causes management to lose faith in him, then it might be.
- ukJayLet’s see if this formatting works better.
Just for kicks, here is how Blue Jay players performed in the field last season, according to the Fielding Bible, which does a very in depth analysis of every ball in play that occurs in the major leagues. So I think it is very accurate.
These are in terms of runs saved compared to the average player at that position:
And also the major league leader.
Overbay….+11…..Teixeira +23
Inglett (2b) +5…..Utley +35
Hill (2b) -2
Scutaro (2b) +1
Scutaro (3b) +13
Rolen +10…..Beltre +24
McDonald -1
Scutaro (ss) +9……Rollins +17
Stewart (lf) 0…..Cawford +23
Wilkerson -1
Snider -3
Mench -1
Lind -9
Wells -17…..Gomez (Min) +29
Rios (cf) +8…..Beltran +25
Rios +16
Inglett (rf) 0…..Gutierrez +29
Zaun -25……Jose Molina +31
Barajas +19
MW: I’m completely stunned that Scutaro outdefended Rolen at third base. That alone makes me skeptical about the numbers.
- KenMike,
There’s no need to even discuss whether B.J. should be getting the next save opportunity… Honestly, I’m wondering if he even belongs in the big leagues.
His pitch speed is mediocre, and he can’t locate. He’s the left-handed relief version of Josh Towers.
Why would Cito want to use Ryan when you have Frasor, Downs, Carlson and League (they can throw a strike) in the pen?
If results really count, BJ shouldn’t be pitching in any meaningful situations. What to do? I don’t know… But he’s brutal.
Las Vegas has Accardo and Wolfe… I’d take either of them in the 9th over Ryan!
MW: Josh Towers could locate with the best of them.
- EricIts Citos way..He will go to Ryan the next time he needs a save..Its what he gets paid for..I’m sure Ryan will get another opportunity to get his stuff back..If he doesn’t what next?..Hand the ball to Downs?..He has a tenancy to allow inherited runners to score..He allowed 14 of 28 runners to score last year..
Ryan’s confidence looks shattered..Not sure how confident I would feel about seeing League or Carlson come out to close games..The Jays really don’t have anyone else but Ryan..
MW: The “closer” doesn’t have to deal with inherited runners, which may make you feel better about Downs.
- ray bLove the blog Mike. Just wanted to say that I hope you’re feeling better soon. This is regular reading for me, and I’d definitely miss it if you were out of commission for a while.
MW: Thanks.
- JeffIf its any consolation at all, Papelbon nearly pulled a BJ vs the Angels tonight.
I did not enjoy the fashion in which many of BJ’s appearances went last season and would be relieved if someone else got a shot at it while he works out his issues.
- J.RI think it’s too early to give up on BJ as a closer. The club is off to a good start so let’s run him out there a couple more times and see if today was a fluke or not.
- GFIn the post game show you eerily sounded like Eugene Levy as Perry Como in an old SCTV skit.
uncanny.
MW: The difference is that he was trying to sound relaxed, I was on the verge of unconsciousness.
- ProkopecThere is going to be a ton of anti-BJ comments, and as far as we’re ALL concerned, they are mostly warranted. Considering the big bucks that he was given to close for the Jays, his outings are progressively more than scary. But then we watch Tallett implode,Jesse not throwing strikes, and League not doing any better….makes us wonder what lies ahead.The old standby for guys like BJ is ‘recovery from TJ surgery takes time’ blah, blah. Can you see them sending him down to Vegas? Better yet, maybe Mel Queene could work on turning him into a real major leaguer.
MW: See above - and the “real major leaguer” crack is hitting below the belt.
- Jack“it wasn’t a save opportunity and closers don’t pitch well when it’s not a save opportunity.”
I know you probably don’t subscribe to this theory Mike, but to anyone who does: it’s a terrible excuse. I don’t know a single person who has any confidence in Ryan anymore (in fairness, none of these people have any connection to the team… but it’s true nonetheless). I heard somewhere that the Jays can’t send Ryan to the minors, as there are no options on him… true?
MW: Anyone with more than five years in the bigs needs to give his permission before being optioned to the minors.
- Kevin A.Man, that ninth was ugly to watch. In fact, I wasn’t even watching it - I was listening on the car radio and still thought it looked ugly.
Props to Frasor though. I commented on your blog last year how he never, ever seems to toss the shut down inning, get the big out. He did today. Is his new changeup for real?
MW: Seems that way.
- Flaming MoeMike, I agree that Downs and League are viable options to take over the closer role (though I have doubts about Frasor or Carlson). However, hasn’t BJ earned a few more save opportunities before he’s bumped from save situations? He didn’t exactly have a banner year last year, but he saved 32 games with a WHIP not much above 1 and K/Walk ratio around 2. The velocity and command are bound to come, even though he’s clearly not in his prime anymore. I hope he isn’t bumped on the strength of a mediocre spring and a couple of terrible outings in the first week of the season.
Love the blog, keep up the good work!
MW: His WHIP was plenty above 1 last year, at 1.28, though the K/BB ratio was a little better than 2:1. But so far you’re the lone dissenter to the mob opinion. Good for you!
- JonHi Mike.
Allan mentioned today that sometimes you have to do what’s good for the team and that maybe moving BJ into a middle relief role to work out his problems might be the answer.
Do you agree and if so would Downs become the closer then?
Thanks Mike.
MW: Yes and yes.
- BrentHey Mike,
I tried listening to the game online today on the fan590 site, but was getting a soccer broadcast instead. Booooooooo!!!
What is the status of Jeremy Accardo in the minors? It looks like the Jays might need a closer soon. What a shame it would be if they finally get the bats going, but faith in a scuffling BJ costs a few wins.
MW: You can’t ever listen to the game online on this site, you have to get the mlb audio package. I don’t think faith in a scuffling Ryan will cost the Jays a few wins. It hasn’t cost them any yet, and he won’t get more than another chance or two if he doesn’t show better.
- Ken PaganSo finally B.J is throwing what I used to throw in my high school days - 88mph. That’s a huge step forward! All sarcasm aside, this should be it for B.J. Cito has given him enough chances to prove himself and he has not shown any signs of improvement.
Don’t you think League is a bit too wayward to be a reliable closer? I mean, I’d be pi**ing in my pants if it’s a one run game with League closing. I like him a lot but I don’t think him and Carlson can do the job with regularity. League lacks the accuracy and Carlson the velocity to be an everyday closer. It’s a big problem Mike.
MW: It’s not a big problem, because there’s still Downs, and Casey Janssen, Jeremy Accardo and even Jason Frasor, who blew two whole saves as the Jays’ closer in his rookie season. I’d like to see League given a shot at some point. He’s still only 26.
- BeburgHello Mike,
Why did you say, after Saturday’s game, that the score was “a lot closer than it should have been,” or something to that effect?
Were the Indians’ runs in the bottom of the ninth not as legitimate as the Jays’ early runs? Would you have said the score was closer than it should have been if the Indians had scored them in the first, instead of the ninth? I don’t see the difference; an inning is an inning. In fact, the Indians scoring three in the first inning against Halladay (best pitcher on team, if not planet) would have been way less likely than the three they posted against Ryan (least effective pitcher on team). The score was not closer than it should have been. The score was what it was. The Indian runs were as legitimate (if not almost predictable) as the Blue Jay runs. Yes, the odds are that the team with a four-run lead heading into the ninth will win. But, unless it’s something extremely flukey, there are no “should have beens” in baseball: 27 outs are 27 outs; a run is a run.
MW: There are “should have beens” in everything. When the score is 5-1 with two out and nobody on in the bottom of the 9th and the bottom of the line-up coming up, and the score winds up 5-4, it’s closer than it should have been.
- Evan WhiteWhat is the procedure with sending a player like BJ down to the minors? Does he have to go on waivers first (like the NHL)? Either way, I don’t see a team picking him up. What do you think of the Jays sending him down to Vegas to work on his control? If a team picks up him, go goes off the books early and maybe we can sign a guy like Pedro.
Keep up the good work!
MW: See above, it’s not like the NHL. Nothing in baseball is like the NHL.
- James from MississaugaHey mike, these guys have been fun to watch. What is up with B.J., he has looked terrible since baseball started this year. Errie resemblence to the Giambi dinger last year….I’m glad to see Cito yank him though.
- lukeWell,Iknow its early mike,but these blue jays look good thus far. Bj looks like hell and im thinking he might be done. I say give him one more chance to prove his worth
- daveHey Mike, not the nicest of victories but a win is a win. How much longer do they keep going with BJ at closer? One more time? Two more times? I don’t think its time to give up on him just because he’s lost some velocity and a bit of control. League managed to get his back. But I would feel much more relaxed if they put Downs in as a temporary closer and maybe use League or Frasor aswell ( he made Victor look a little silly with that change). On another topic, what’s up with Rios and his cop out of an attempt on the fly ball off the wall early on? I don’t think I’ve ever seen him leave his feet on a flyball ever.
As always great work on the air and on your blog, keep it up Mike.
MW: Rios usually doesn’t have to leave his feet to catch a fly ball, but I have seen him leap when he has to. I don’t think he bailed on that fly ball at the wall Friday night, but he did duck away from the carom when he couldn’t beat the ball to the wall.
- DaveMike,
No problem with Ryan, I mean, Ryan does seem to be a problem at the moment but I don’t think the situation with him will be a problem for the team. If he doesn’t turn around soon, I think they will just demote him to some sort of relief role and see if someone else steps up and fills the role. I’d love to watch one of those guys do it.
I’d be interested in your comments on, if BJ doesn’t turn it around and that is it for him, would you say he has been bust for the team as an investment? I say, yes, a bust.
I am thinking back to last year at this time and the feel of this team so far is way better this year. Chemistry and possibilities. Remember those silent bats and the RISP woes last year.
I am happy the BJ problem is the worst of the talk right now. Rios needs to hit a tater real soon. Tell JP to get on his case again for me.
Boldstar
MW: If Ryan never gets it back then yes, a huge bust.
- BoldstarWell, Cito did say coming out of Spring Training that he was concerned about BJ. Does he have options? Can he try to get it together in Las Vegas? How can he be put out there right now with the game on the line?
Could not have asked for a better start to 2009. Total different feel with this team than last year, at least on the offensive side.
Jerry mentioned a bit of a troubling stat, which are all out of proportionj because the season just got underway, but the starters ERA combined is 4th worst in MLB? How much did Halladay bring it down with the solid 7 innings today?
Keeo up the good work. Sure would be nice to get the sweep heading into Minnesota.
I still can’t believe Mlllar went hom on that Aaron Hill single in the 3rd. Good defensive switch with Overbay late.
MW: After Halladay’s outing, the Jays are now 7th in the league in starting pitchers’ ERA at 4.38.
- Aaron KerHi Mike,
I was wondering where the decision came from to have Hill bunt in the 4th. I’m assuming that it came from the bench rather than under Hill’s own initiative. I know I’m preaching to the choir here, but I didn’t understand bunting in that situation early in the game, up 4, with a guy at the plate who is 2 for 2 on the day, and a chance to bury Lee and get to the taxed pen.
Secondly, I read on Jordan Bastian’s blog that Cito thought the game last night should have been played until it was official and not delayed. I was wondering if this was Cito speaking as the manager of the team in the lead, or if conditions warranted the continuation of the game.
MW: Probably both, and I’m with you on the bunting thing, of course.
- HoweyMike,
B.J. Ryan is clearly not capable of getting the job done. He showed up to Spring Training and, essentially, had forgotten how to pitch. The situation (even though his velocity is up) remains status quo. The Blue Jays have no shortage of quality arms. Succinctly, they had the best bullpen in baseball last season. It is thus mind-boggling that B.J. Ryan is with the team. If he cannot be put on the disabled list, then he should be demoted. Right now, he is, frankly, a liability.
MW: To say he’s forgotten how to pitch is a major overstatement.
- Jake RothMike, there’s a piece in the Globe and verbage from Frasor which describes his new pitch as a splitter. It certainly brings a whole new dimension to his arsenal
MW: Verbage? Yes, Frasor seems to be calling this change-up of his a splitter. Ashby does the same thing, it’s as though they’re interchangeable. Both pitches offer a change-of-pace, and Frasor’s certainly appears to dive late.
- gerryHi, Mike. I wanted to start by saying that your show is consistently enjoyable and you and the rest of the FAN crew made yesterday’s game a little bit more bearable during the rain delay. I’m a lifelong Jays fan and they have been my favourite team in any sport since I was old enough to talk. I went to my first Jays game with my dad when I was one and half years old and I am happy that I don’t remember it as it was a freezing cold night at Exhibition Stadium (game six of the 1985 ALCS) and the Jays lost to the Royals.
I am currently living in Los Angeles (to attend film school), but purchased an MLB.tv account a couple of weeks prior to the season so that I can watch the games while I’m out here. Naturally, when the rain delay started during yesterday’s game I switched over to the streaming radio broadcast to listen to the rain delay show. I’ve wanted to call in for a while, but generally when I’m listening to your show I’m either driving back home in Toronto or busy doing something else (editing my film, sending e-mails, etc.) Anyway, yesterday would have been the perfect opportunity and I tried to call the long distance number (1-888-666-0590), but was informed that I can’t call the number from my calling area. Disappointing, but I figured I’d ask you the few questions that I was going to ask on the air here:
1) What do you make of Brad Emaus as a prospect and how will it effect where Aaron Hill plays? Do you think he’ll stick at second base and if so would he be a defensive upgrade on Hill, allowing the team to move Hill to third in 2011 after Rolen’s contract expires (assuming, of course, that such a move would make letting Rolen go the most intelligent solution). I love Hill’s defense at second base, but I remember hearing while he was a prospect that he would also make a great defensive third baseman because of his arm and when healthy I think he can hit enough to stick there if his defense is indeed good. Of course, Kevin Ahrens might be ready by that time too depending on how well he plays this year and next and Emaus might be better used as a third baseman as well. I really don’t know.
2) I agree with you that making Overbay the leadoff hitter against righties, but what about moving Bautista up in the order against lefties. Over the past three seasons Bautista has put up a torrid line against southpaws (.263BA, .370OBP, .500SLG%, .870OPS in 342 at-bats) and last year he was arguably even better (.250BA, .339OBP, .546SLG%, .885OPS in 108 at-bats). Given his power and solid walk rate against lefties I think he’d make an ideal candidate to bat second or third ahead of Wells (one of the best hitters in the league against left-handed pitching) or stick in the lineup after Wells to protect him. At any rate, I think Bautista should be in the lineup somewhere every time the Jays face a left-handed pitcher. He can play enough positions that they could use that as a way of getting everyone their rest days in a kind of rotation. What do you think of this idea?
3) When do you expect we will see J.P. Arencibia at the big league level? He’s got great power and a good contact rate, but his low walk rate really worries me. I wonder if the guy is actually going to hit at the big league level. If he posts similar numbers in AAA this season then I think he’s probably ready, but a lead-footed catcher that can’t walk isn’t really that valuable unless he’s able to almost immediately slug at around a .460 clip and bat .300 while playing solid defense. Is there any chance that Arencibia is really going to be at that point this year?
4) I’ve heard that Cecil really enjoyed closing in college and would enjoy doing that again. I think he’s a much more valuable asset as a starter (for obvious reasons), but if Ryan continues to struggle and Cecil really tears it up in AAA I worry that the Jays are going to want to eat up some of Cecil’s option years using him as a closer. I think that would be a misuse of resources as a starting pitcher is always more valuable than a reliever and our best pitching prospect should, if they are capable of pitching six or seven strong, always be utilized as a starter. Do you think there’s any risk that the Jays will make this mistake? Or do you agree that it would indeed be a mistake?
Anyway, thanks again for the insights and for your show.
Take care,
Nick
MW: Thanks for keeping an ear on us out on the coast, Nick! 1 - I believe Aaron Hill is one of the best defensive second basemen in the game, so it would be a real stretch to say that Emaus could be an improvement defensively. If someone’s going to have to move, it’d be Emaus going over to third, unless the Jays want to try to cross the Hill-to-shortstop bridge again. I still think it’s too early for everyone to be getting so excited about Emaus, though. He hasn’t even had a week above A-ball. 2 - It appears as though Bautista is going to be in the line-up every time the Jays face a lefty, but Cito isn’t going to break up his top 4. 3 - Where do you get that Arencibia is “lead-footed”? 4 - The Jays aren’t going to move Cecil back to the bullpen.
- Nick WernhamHows it goin Mike
We listen to all your after game shows at work.
Bit tuff foowin the diff stations,nut Jerry gives us lots of updates on the changes
Justa thought BUT maybe give Ryan the left hander out of the bull pen job.
Just switch with Downs
Gotta put the Team first.
What do you think Mike
Glen
glad to hear your feelin better
- Glen BarryMike never write sentences again. “Even actually ate some food!” What kinda sentence is that?
MW: Yep, I shouldn’t have put any punctuation there. But hey, you’re missing a comma in your first sentence, and what kind of word is “kinda”?
- HowardEvery time B.J. pitched last year, I was scared s**tless. Now, he’s been totally exposed. Too often has Ryan been bailed out by hitters not teeing off on his gift-wrapped upper-half-of-the-strike-zone “fastballs”. The intimidation factor is now zero with B.J. The opposition knows he’s scared. The Jays have the best bullpen in the league UNTIL THE NINTH. This is a big problem, obviously. I agree Mike, there are some capable arms in that pen, but will Cito take action?
MW: “Totally exposed” after one crappy outing? Wow, you guys are tough.
- CaseyI have always (quietly) been a fan of Jason Frasor - he has that quiet, understated delivery, has been given crappy relief assignments for years, seemigly without complaining, and throws hard. Give me two more successes with him facing the go ahead run and I’ll totally back him. (John Gibbons never liked him but I think Cito might)
- halladayfanIs Scutaro actually this good a lead off hitter? I am loving Aaron Hill and Adam Lind this first week. Lind definatly is AL player of the week. Good to see Doc pitch a full 7 without any major hickups. Mike, should Purcy lead the Jays to a sweep or is Reyes a prospect to look out for?
MW: A couple of years ago, Reyes was one of the best pitching prospects in the game - I’m a big fan. Of course Scutaro isn’t this good a lead off hitter, you don’t actually think he’s going to hit .400, do you?
- SteveI had to laugh, no disrespect, at the concept brought up by a caller that one can gauage a team by the first ten games. I think they are thinking about football.
People, the Jays are indeed 5-1. They are indeed displaying offense that is far more impressive than most of last year. The offense certainly will be better, just by subtracting the culprits Menchkerson, stewart, et al. HOWEVER….look at what is happening. Lind is as hot as a player can ever hope to be. Rolen is hitting over 400. Scutaro is hitting like Hack Wilson. This is just a hot, hot start for a few of the hitters. Its great..yes..its great…but these guys will come back down to earth..then we will see what we have..give it a couple months. the pitching staff is basically still an unknown commodity. Doc is Doc, the penn should be solid with or without BJ..and with a decent lineup the team should be solid..but folks…its baseball..even a crappy team can rattle off 8 wins in a row and if it happens in august, noone notices..but if a team happens to do it from the seasons beginning it skews perspective.
MW: Everything that happens at the beginning of a season, good or bad, skews perspective. It seems to be human nature. But yes, as I said to that caller, I think it takes about 50-60 games to gauge a team.
- General ZodMike-
Is it fair to say the only reason Friday night’s game was not called early was so that 42 000 + tickets would not need to be refunded/exchanged?
Thanks
-Eli
MW: No, because the decision was in the hands of the umpires, not the Indians. Cito mentioned yesterday that the umps came to him looking to call the game, but he asked them to hold off and wait longer.
- EliWhat kind of action, if any, do you think the Jays will take on BJ Ryan? A trade involving the Jays paying some of Ryan’s salary/Las Vegas assignment/Release? I keep checking the Jays website obsessively to see what’s next. With all the consistent young talent, there is no need to risk putting Ryan out there unless they have a ten run lead.
MW: See above.
- AndrewDouble Dip-
- AndrewFood for thought - Dare I say - Tampa had a fluke year, New York is the team to beat because they spend money like tap water, and Boston is getting old and worse off than they were last year? Baltimore - who cares (although young, its too early)
Your logic about the potential of having Alex Anthopoulos take over the regular slot is well taken but my thinking is that AA would be recused from the kind of questions that would step on JP’s toes (”Are you guys going to trade X?” and so forth) but he would be able to comment on the team’s views on a given prospects progress, or the status of an injured player, or what they think of the guy they just drafted and so forth - still good “inside the front office” insight without really “speaking for JP”
See where I’m going with that?
For a front office that has seemed to value openness, it might be a way for them to have JP out of the hot seat but still try to foster a good relationship with the fans in a similar fashion to what JP was trying to do.
MW: I see what you mean, but I still don’t think they’ll do it. There are too many who already believe that Alex will be acclaimed as the next GM, and too many toes to be stepped on if he takes too much spotlight.
- WillRainEveryone knows you were ill, but I think quite a few people took offense to you using the term “raped” a few times. Others said you don’t like using a g word in reference to pitchers. If I were you, I would do a short and quick retraction, and I think that would satisfy anyone offended. Anyway, I love listening to you and quality analysis. Thanks always.
MW: I have never used the word “raped” on the air. I haven’t got the slightest idea to what you’re referring.
- brent in KoreaHi Mike. I’m back. Where’s the audio of you going over the out of town scoreboard after today’s game?
MW: Not worth posting, very obviously.
- Jay MoneyI think I know what the letters “B.J.” stand for now because his performance sure sucked today. He was miserably and shamefully awful. I’d have felt better with Darren Hall out there. Hell, I’d have felt better with Darwin Cubillian out there. I better stop before I say something that gets me banned for life.
- Jim in OhioMike
Good stuff as usual. I heard the other day on vs. the Tigers on the Tigers broadcast, they said “This Jays team is not built to steal bases”. Do you agree with this statement? More so how come these jays players haven’t ran more this season?
From my perspective in the RH lineup the only guys who i would consider less than average base runners are Barajas, Overbay and Rolen
Is it just because they are swinging the bats so well they don’t want to cost themselves runs?
As usual always a pleasure Mike
MW: You need to watch closer if you think Rolen is a below-average baserunner. He’s one of the best on the team. They haven’t run more to this point because I don’t think the situation has called for it very often. I think that Rios is capable of stealing 30 bases, Hill and Wells 20, and Scutaro 10.
- Tarun JosephWoooooooooooow… so I thought I’d throw your rain delay show while I try to fall asleep.
How about that guy from Forrest, ON around 26mins in… “ya, ok some of these baseball teams have hockey teams and how do you adjust!? how do you adjust?!!?”
I had noooo idea what he was talking about either. It was definitely jokes though. Considering the state of your health, congratulations on handling crazy guests so successfully and pulling a question out of that crazy guy’s comment.
MW: Thanks, that guy was fun.
- JoshSaving B.J Ryan…nice title haha.. I know what is wrong with the guy, he does not come set, relax and finish his pitches. He is standing strait up and rushing everything. Send him down to fix that problem and let Leauge close games.
MW: He threw exactly the same way in 2005 and 2006, when he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the game.
- DanMike. I think you should be giving Masters updates during the ballgame, not everyone has access to television sets and it’s good that you give them that info.
A friend of mine is a big Scott Rolen fan, so what do you think of his start to this season and will he hit way more than the 11 HR’s than he did. I think he ahs a good chance at the Comeback Player of the Year.
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit for Rolen.
- PeterI agree that BJ should not get the ball for the next save opportunity, but some would argue that regardless of the score Saturdays disaster was a save opportunity…his job.
MW: Overdramatize things much?
- BobThis has definitely been a weird season so far. Friday afternoon’s game was as strange as I have ever seen. One thing that I am completed shocked about is how well Scutaro is playing. I am not at all fan of Scutaro but he has been fabulous. On the other hand I never understood why the Jays, with their payroll and bullpen, never traded BJ Ryan this summer and now it looks like the Jays may never be able to trade him. With any luck, he will turn his season around, but he is just all over the place right now.
Can you explain to me why so many times when closers struggle they are allowed to keep trying to close games? I know last night wasn’t a save situation, but doesn’t it make more sense to put them into a game in the 5th or 6th inning of a blowout and use a guy like Downs, League, Fraser, or Carlson in that roll until he gets his mojo going? It definitely is frustrating to watch.
MW: Remember, Ryan still looked good in his blown save on Tuesday, so Saturday wasn’t a make-or-break outing for Ryan by any means.
- Andrew ClarkWay to hang in there Mike - I had that nasty bug myself and know a couple of others who had it and followed up with an equally nasty head cold after it.
You did a fantastic job throughout the rain delay marathon.
Games like that one (extended rain delay) and yesterday afternoons game-save by Frasor are huge for the Jays.
The Saturday game I had mixed emotions when Cito came out to get Ryan. Sorry to see him struggle like that (Ryan) but more pleased to see that Doc did not miss out on the win he deserved.
I have been saying and posted here earlier, the return of Hill to the line-up along with the return to form of Rolen will do wonders for the offence. So far so good! Hill for certain is the key to seeing the bats all come to life this season.
I know it’s early - very early into the season. However, just like last season with RISP issues you knew it was going to be a long season - this season the gut feel is the exact polar opposite as to the feel for the season.
Getting off to to a good start in April and May pays huge dividends in so many ways as to a winning mind set.
You do know Mike, you are scrutinzed constantly by some out there who listen to you, and read your blog daily just to be critical. But, when someone actually calls you (posts) on a mistake with regard to a golf score, that just made me shake my head! Yikes, that is pretty pathetic indeed!
Thank you!
MW: It is amazing that there are those out there who get such delight in going over everything and waiting and waiting for the tiniest mistake.
- Bob from BurlingtonIT’s frighteningly reminiscent of 2007, when Ryan didn’t admit to anyone he was genuinely hurt until after he’d blown a couple of games (and was lucky to save the three he did.)
I mean, you have to admire the moxie of a pitcher who wants to get out there and compete, but Ryan doesn’t loook good, hasn’t looked good since the beginning of spring training, and results speak for themselves. Thankfully it hasn’t mattered… yet.
MW: Everyone involved with the team knew Ryan was hurt in March of 2007.
- Rick Jonesmichael,
- darrell bishopi’ll tell you right now what’s looking mighty encouraging for this ball club aside from lind & his heroics or the scutaro at bats in the lead off spot, among so many other things thus far. it’s this so called change up that looks like a dead ringer for a split finger fastball that our man j. frasor sported yesterday to save the day.
if it turns out that ryan can’t be the guy to close them out this yr. with his usual consistency (and it is way too early in the season to be making that call people) then i’m liking frasor with his 95+ fastball complimented by that pitch we saw yesterday from him.
can’t say i ever thought he might be the alternative with all the others already in that pen.
but if yesterday is any indication. man. look out.
that was absolutely nasty.
here’s hoping…….
Hi Mike,
Can you pass along a note to management to allow your jay’s talk segments to be downloadable to ipod/usb stick please? THanks.
- frankMike…..Listening to “Sgt Pepper” last night, it seemed like a synopsis of the game. B.J. Ryan got by with a little help from his friends. (Frasor) Cito Gaston maybe “Fixing A Hole” in the closer’s role (Ryan) and the Jays’ timely hitting is definitely “Getting Better”…I have no clue if any player has a lovely wife named Rita who works as a meter maid
- chris m.What do you think of this idea Mike:
During interleague play, should the home team play the opposite league’s rules? Meaning, that when NL teams are in Toronto, they play NL rules. Though attendance is already improved during interleague play slightly because of the different teams available to watch, I think that it would be a great way to bring a ton of people to the ballpark. Many people in the area prefer the National League style, so it would definitely be a good business move for the league. I understand that when you are at home you want every advantage possible, so playing a new style wouldn’t really be beneficial to your team, but still - would you go for it?
MW: I would, I have been a proponent of that idea for a couple of years now. I think it would be a lot of fun.
- vjMike
After B.J.’s outing yesterday, my brother and I came to the simple conclusion that right now the Blue Jays are a better team without him. Cito has to realize that and make intelligent decisions. Or possibly it won’t be his decision at all. That is if J.P. makes the difficult decision to send him to AAA.
On another note…Are the Jays planning on wearing those horrific uniforms on Friday night home games this season?
Thanks, and keep up the good work,
Ryan
Ryan McMillan
Lindsay, ON
MW: You think the powder blues are horrific? To each his own, I guess, but what’s wrong with you?
- Ryan McMillanCorrect me if im wrong, but Frasor’s changeup moves a lot like Marcum’s changeup.
Maybe Marcum’s awesomness is still shinning through to help out the jays.
If Frasor is still throwing his slider, with his new change, he could definetly help out closing a few games while Ryan works on a few things.
MW: Marcum’s change is straighter, I think, but I’m sure his awesomeness is still shining through from afar.
- DaveMIke,
Great job with the rain out show. You kept me around for 3 hrs waiting.
I have question for your ten questions, if it isn’t too late. “What dish would you bring to a pot luck?” And “what would you wear first, Short shorts, spandex or fanny packs?
As for the title, I like “Saving Closer Ryan”.
And as for Frasor closing, isn’t he the long man?
MW: No, Tallet and Camp are the long men.
- JWHey Mike, I’m 15, from just south of Toronto. Love the blog, love the pre game, love the post game. You’ve got the coolest job in the world. Let’s hope the Jays do as well as it’s looking this year.
MW: I do have the coolest job in the world!
- MattMike,
When Marco Scutaro gets a day off, who will led off?
MW: Not John McDonald, I hope. Probably Aaron Hill.
- John SunderalndIn the MLB updates, it shows that the first run against Purcey was earned, when it came on an error by Barajas. Why does this count as an earned run?
MW: It’s not. That should get fixed, if it hasn’t been already.
- Sam McLeanwondering if and when you’ll admit the Gibbons Denbo combo had something to do with the Jay’s dismal start last year, your defense of the duo is rather curious, as it basically negates the contribution Cito and Tenace have made..I recall you saying Ernie Whitt was unqualified to mange the Jays, yet you were unrelenting in your defense of Gibbons (what’s the difference between the two)?
P.S. I’m not advocating Whitt, I’m merely point out your constant contradiction with respect to the contribution of the manager..
MW: I don’t think it’s a constant contradiction to say that the manager and coaches don’t have as much of an effect as so many people seem to believe they do, mostly because of decades of the media doing its best to turn coaches and managers into gods - look at the way football is covered. I believed, and still do, that Ernie Whitt was unqualified to manage the Jays because he had almost NO experience compared to Gibbons’ several years in the minors, and just because I don’t agree with the extent of the effect of a manager, it doesn’t mean I don’t think there is one.
- Craiger…what happened to vinnie chulk?
how and why did he leave the jays?
i think he’d be a good setup man….what happened?
MW: Chulk was traded, along with Shea Hillenbrand, to the Giants for Jeremy Accardo. And his work since that trade would belie your confidence in him.
- TheSunkenZealotMike, if we’re going to win games we need more consistency from our 3-4 hitters. The ugly pop-ups kill us. Also, is it just me or do Rios’ mechanics look way off? Finally, what is with this team and their inability to hit against MEDIOCRE pitching?
MW: I don’t think we’re going to win any games, at least I know I’m not. As far as this team’s inability to hit mediocre pitching, are you referring to the team that’s leading the major leagues in runs scored, batting average and OPS? That team?
- RenegadeMike,
For the life of me, I do not understand why Shawn Camp was left in to face the lefty Crowe with the bases loaded.
MW: Camp should never pitch against lefties in important situations, it’s true, but you can’t bring in a guy in the 5th inning if his job is only to face one hitter.
- Jake RothInteresting that as soon as I post about Rios-Wells. Triple then HR. Ouch to me. And I wasn’t just referring to this year Michael. Look at last season. We had no problem beating up good pitching yet we choked against scrubs.
MW: The Jays didn’t really beat up on anybody last year.
- RenegadeI am enjoying the season so much. We were due to lose one game. Have to let the others save face.
Is Aaron Hill that good and did we miss him that much? Off to a great start and healthy. Wow!
MW: The game’s not over yet. No, Aaron Hill’s probably not .900 OPS good, but he’s very good.
- barbihaha another solid blog title, Mike.
Purcey’s line was real strange today.
- BrendanAlso, I am beginning to fear your prediction for this year may come true! - a very strong offensive team that can’t get an out.
MW: When did I say that?
- BrendanSo.. do you think Cito getting the Franchise to bunt was the right move?
MW: No, but I can see why he did it.
- RenegadeI think what you said was “raked” and certain people misheard you. I certainly never heard “raped” and I suspect someone at the Fan would have mentioned it if you had said it.
B.J.’s had 2 outings this season and people are saying he’s done. It’s a long season and he was a little behind in Spring Training, the Jays would have to be insane to release a proven $20 million reliever. Give him at least one more chance to close and if he implodes bring him in to low leverage situations.
I’d hate to see Downs as closer. As the team’s top reliever he needs to come in to the highest leverage situations, which often aren’t typical closer situations.
MW: That must have been it. I can’t believe someone would think I would say “raped” in reference to a sporting event.
- ColinRE Post 56
I believe you said “raked” not “raped,” when going through the out of town scoreboard.
- WesWith respect to calling Arencibia “lead-footed” I was referring to BaseballAmerica.com’s analysis of the top catching prospects. They indicated that out of the catching prospects in baseball that are in the top 100 (i.e. the guys who look to have a very good shot at being big league regulars), Arencibia is tied for the slowest. Given that catchers are traditionally not the quickest of foot on the bases that lead me to assume that Arencibia is particularly slow. If I am wrong in this then please feel free to correct me.
Don’t get me wrong, I like his bat-speed and his swing, but I just think that to be the player that some people seem to think he is with the walk rate he has (or even a slight improvement on it) he pretty much needs to hit around .300 with 20-25 home runs and 35-40 doubles to be the above-average to good offensive catcher that people expect him to be. Not impossible by any means, but he would be so much better if his walk rate were even average.
MW: I didn’t find him to be exceptionally slow. I have to ask this, because the question is in my head when anyone talks about prospects, but have you ever seen him play?
- Nick WernhamMike can you please stop defending Overbay and giving him mulligans for a 2 year old hand injury? The guy looks COMPLETELY lost at the plate.
MW: Nope. Unless you can tell me how .291/.384/.481 is bad, because that’s what Lyle hit against righties last year. If you’re willing to pull the chute on him after a performance like that after one bad week, that’s a problem.
- JoeB.J. Ryan, the man the insightful J.P. Ricciardi once made the highest-paid closer in baseball.
Ryan was never “lights-out” in Baltimore and hasn’t quite been “lights-out” in Toronto.
MW: What exactly would you call 2006?
- Ken PaganMike, if hating Brandon League is wrong, I don’t wanna be right!
- Vito From HamiltonAlso, I am beginning to fear your prediction for this year may come true! - a very strong offensive team that can’t get an out.
MW: When did I say that?
—-
Well it wasn’t a prediction and it wasn’t your exact words I suppose, you just said something like “I fear next year’s team will be all hitting and no pitching”, as if opposite to what they were last year/
MW: Not a prediction, by any means. What I said was something along the lines of “with their luck, they’ll have a great offense and the pitching will let them down.”
- BrendanMike…Did you find it a frustrating game today? I did because when Purcey hit the strike zone, he somewhat overmatched the Indians, with only Derosa hitting him hard. And it’s funny that Derosa’s homer didn’t bother me as much as the Sizemore walk preceding it. I do like Purcey’s stuff and believe he’ll be a successful starter, if he isn’t already..But every time I get excited about Brandon League, he throws like Friday and today and it’s a letdown..But at the end of the day a 5-2 record after 7 games I’ll take
- chris m.I’ve never watched a game that Arencibia has played in at the park or on television, but BA generally does a pretty good job of balancing statistical measures of performance and a players “tools” in their analysis of prospects so I just made my comment based on what they have said. They definitely get some things wrong about certain prospects, but when they say he’s either the slowest or second slowest out of the top catching prospects in the game that does jump out at you.
Perhaps I should have used a different descriptor than “lead-footed” in my post. What I should have said “Given that Baseball America seems to think that Arencibia is slow and he also has a very low walk rate he’s going to need to be pretty exceptional in terms of his contact rate and power (a real possibility, but rarely a slam dunk, especially initially) in order to be the kind of offensive catcher that people think he can be.”
Have you seen him play? I’d love to hear your insight.
Thanks,
Nick
MW: I’ve seen him play, but not a lot, though he never struck me as especially slow. But it’s not as though too many catchers get a lot of leg hits, anyway. But for sure, if he doesn’t improve his walk rate, it’s going to be tough for him to be an offensive force. However, given what the Jays have had historically behind the plate, I’d be happy to take a .280/.295/.500 from the catcher.
- Nick WernhamScutaro (3b) +13
Rolen……+10……Beltre +24
MW: I’m completely stunned that Scutaro outdefended Rolen at third base. That alone makes me skeptical about the numbers.
I checked some other sources of defensive metrics:
Baseball Prospectus
Scutaro (3b)…. +3
Rolen ……..+15
They have Scutaro at +14 at shortstop and McDonald at -1.
Scutaro must be doing something right as all the defensive measuring systems rate him very highly.
CHONE has Scutaro at +22, but that is for all positions combined. He has Rolen at +17.
MW: Maybe it’s the regular work, but Scutaro last year was a far better defender than I thought he’d be, given his reputation, and he’s started off this year awfully well afield, too.
- KenMike,
I just read you think you could beat Kevin Millar in a foot race. I would like to see that race.
Is there anyway we can make this happen? Maybe time Millar to 1st and see if you can beat that time?
Keep up the good work.
J.
MW: It ain’t gonna happen.
- JabesOh well, you can’t win ‘em all.
Purcey was interesting–10 ks and I can’t remember how many walks but it seemed like quite a few. That big curve ball he kept throwing for balls reminded me of Ryan’s the day before. Still, all those ks might bode well for the future, unless it’s just that he’s new and there isn’t much tape on him yet.
Rios continues to unimpress. He’s been around the major leagues for 6 years now. I think that’s long enough to get a handle on how to hit. He only got that double today because the right-fielder lost the ball in the sun. Rios reminds me of a line in an old Bonnie Raitt song: ‘all of the moves and none of the courage’.
As for Wednesdays With JP. With respect, I believe his withdrawal this season might have been determined further up the food chain immediately after the Adam Dunn mess. You will undoubtedly take a shot about ‘front-office insider knowledge’ which, of course, I don’t have. But if he’d been working for me and did that, I’d yank him as well. And I wouldn’t do it immediately because it would really become a distraction then. Makes sense to withdraw quietly before the next season.
MW: If it was because of the Adam Dunn comment, they wouldn’t have let him do the show for another 3 1/2 months. Just like if he wasn’t allowed to make any trades or sign anybody, he wouldn’t be the GM anymore. And you’re being awfully harsh on a guy who has been to two all-star games.
- isabella reyesJays pitching after seven games. Yes, Mike I know it’s early.
Halladay:
14 IP, 3 BB, 9 K, 2 HR, xERA 4.49
Remaining starters:
27.2 IP, 14 BB, 29 K, 6 HR, xERA 5.33
BJ Ryan:
1.2 IP, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, xERA 19.22
Rest of bullpen:
18.2 IP, 13 BB, 18 K, 3 HR, xERA 5.25
And the seven game OPS rankings:
Scutaro…..1216
Lind……..1186
Miller……1125
Rolen……..973
Wells……..923
Hill………913
Snider…….813
Batista……780
Rios………755
Overbay……658
Barrett……311
Barajas……276
MW: Why exactly are you doing this?
- KenHi Mike,
I was wondering where the decision came from to have Hill bunt in the 4th. I’m assuming that it came from the bench rather than under Hill’s own initiative. I know I’m preaching to the choir here, but I didn’t understand bunting in that situation early in the game, up 4, with a guy at the plate who is 2 for 2 on the day, and a chance to bury Lee and get to the taxed pen.
MW: I’m with you on the bunting thing, of course.
I’m not necessarily saying that the bunt there was the right thing. But when there are two runners on base you gain two bases for the cost of an out. This is twice as beneficial as giving up an out to gain only one base. It also pretty much eliminates the possibility of a double play which has a higher negative impact with two runners on base than with one.
There are actually some legitimate arguments for a sac bunt with runners on first and second and no one out, but one of the big problems with doing it with your number two hitter is that it gives your opposition the opportunity to pitch around your number three hitter who is often the best hitter on the team. It makes more sense at the bottom of the order.
MW: If the guy is hitting at the top of the line-up, you want him up more than anybody else on the team because he’s one of your best hitters, so why would you ever ask him to get out on purpose in the 4th inning? That’s one. Two is look at run expectancy charts. 1st and 2nd, none out is a more productive situation than 2nd and 3rd, one out.
- KenChris m..You do not criticise Brandon League. Mike will have sweet, precious little to do with that….
- Vito From HamiltonHi, great start. Even with the loss they have all been impressive, kast year they wouldnt have even made it close, great to see!
Off track but i just want to put it out there that this year the jays will be at Rays of last year, very young team but awsome hitting. Wells, Rios, Lind Hill, Snider all youngsters who can slug the ball. The loss of pitching will be made with for with the improvment of batting.
sounds odd but better hitting can subplant bad pitching. Having startes paitch games of 1 or 2 Era doesnt always win because you still have to score 2 or more runs to win a 1Era game, and over the last 2 years that didtn happen!
I think we’ll win 90+..any chance M.W?
MW: Sure there’s a chance. I just don’t think there’s much of one.
- Kyle SHey Mike,
Now that you acknowledge it’s best for the team for B.J. to work in a different role and perhaps use Downs as the closer (post 32) . . . yet you contradict yourself in post 33 by the way . . .
Has J.P. Ricciardi has ever made a big-name/front-line player major-league acquistion that has worked out?
Home-grown and reserve players aside, which of J.P.’s gems have worked best for the Blue Jays:
Frank Thomas?
B.J. Ryan?
A.J. Burnett?
Troy Glaus?
Scott Rolen?
Lyle Overbay?
David Eckstein?
MW: It’s sad that you feel you have to look through all my posts and answers to comments so that you can point out a contradiction and feel good about yourself. Look again, there’s no contradiction. In post 32 I said I agreed that moving Ryan to a lesser role might be the answer and in post 33 I said that having faith in him wouldn’t cost the Jays a few wins because it hasn’t cost them any yet and he wouldn’t get more than another chance or two if he didn’t turn it around. Where’s the contradiction?
- Ken Paganin a response to a poster a few days ago, you wrote, and i’m paraphrasing, that ‘alcohol doesn’t turn everyone into complete jerks, unless your name is Matt Bush’…
just wondering if you could expand on that statement…we know that he was booted from the team for violating a strictly enforced team rule, but i don’t believe any further details were given, and i’m assuming your statement refers to that incident…so, care to give any more details?
if you’re not willing/able to, it’s kind of unfair to us readers for you to make a statement like that, when you’re not willing to discuss the implications of it…
MW: The incident that got Bush released is a matter of public record. The Florida State Attorney is considering filing charges against Bush for an incident in Dunedin a couple of weeks ago in which he allegedly threw a baseball past a woman’s head and banged on her car window to scare her. He appeared intoxicated and acted belligerently, according to the report.
- Jay BMike,
Not that I am trying to be negative because a 5-2 start is great. But to what degree to the Jays owe that to the Central and a couple of games where the opposition played some pretty poor D?
I dare say that if the Jays played in the Central they would have a good chance of winning the division. I feel that the team or teams that survive the East will be the teams that having winning records against other Eastern teams. And there is where the challenge will be for the Jays.
My biggest worry for the Jays right now is the pen. League and Beej, two guys who need to anchor the pen haven’t won me over this year.
MW: Last year the Jays had a winning record against the AL East.
- JWHey Mike,
I’m 2 for 2 on series predictions on your blog (Post April 9), so I’ll keep doing it until I get at least one wrong. Next up Minnesota 4 game road series.
For this series, again you’d think the Twins should have the edge going in. They were excellent at home last year. They’re throwing 4 good starters at the Jays, including their ace (Liriano, who’s having early troubles this year). However, they are minus Mauer right now (15 day DL), who is a HUGE part of their offence.
I have a good feeling about Litsch and Richmond in this series. Litsch has done well against the Twins in the past and though I don’t have a lot of confidence in Richmond, I just have a gut feeling that he’ll do well next game. He’ll be facing a very good pitcher in Baker, but Baker’s apparently coming back from some shoulder tightness. I’m guessing he’ll be on a limited pitch count. I expect a pitcher’s duel between Halladay and Liriano. I can’t see Liriano having a 3rd awful outing in a row, but who knows.
Despite the good pitchers the Jays will be facing, I will still predict a 2-2 series split. This would make for a pretty successful road trip overall I think.
MW: 4-3 is definitely a successful road trip, they’d take that every time. We shall see how well you continue to do.
- RMre:comment 23
I’m fully aware of that..However, sometimes the closer comes into the game with runners on..In 2006 Ryan inherited 29 base runners and only allowed 1 of them to score..Downs will be asked to come into games with runners on..He may have to get 4 or 5 outs to get the save..He has shown an inability to hold those inherited runners on hence the impressive ERA..I think he is a great pitcher but his stats are a little bloated..
MW: OK
- ray bMW: There are “should have beens” in everything. When the score is 5-1 with two out and nobody on in the bottom of the 9th and the bottom of the line-up coming up, and the score winds up 5-4, it’s closer than it should have been.
Dead wrong, Mike. If the Jays had scored three runs in the same manner in the third inning and won the game 3-1, you would never say they shouldn’t have won. Third inning or ninth inning, it doesn’t matter when the runs are scored or how many out there were when they were scored. It’s called a rally, and when it’s down against B.J Ryan this season the idea that it “shouldn’t” have happened is a silly one.
MW: Dead wrong, Evan.
- Evan WhiteHi Mike,
I was just wondering, what are the sites that you guys use to find all the stats of the players and what you use to find the official rules of the game? thanks!
MW: baseball-reference.com is great for stats, and mlb.com has the rulebook.
- BradMike, when League was pitching today his velocity was down to the 94-95 range from the 97-100 range it was last year.
Has his velocity been down in other starts as well. If it has maybe that explains his rocky start.
MW: I haven’t really been paying attention to the gun with him. I don’t remember him hitting 99+ much last year.
- gerryMike
Saving private Ryan….
relax people,he will get it back! There’s a flaw in the mechanics, which Arnsberg will figure out.
What’s the progress report on Janssen? Do you think Accardo will ever find that split-finger again?
MW: Janssen, last I heard, was supposed to pitch a simulated game this week, and I don’t know.
- steve wiltonha Mike y cant Ryan be demoted to AAA.
MW: See above.
- jeffMike. Hope you had a fantastic Easter. GO JAYS
- TomisFrom one of your earlier commenters:
“Hey Mike, I’m 15, from just south of Toronto.”
Where do you live on a boat in lake Ontario?
- Stevie H.MW: I have never used the word “raped” on the air. I haven’t got the slightest idea to what you’re referring.
i believe he’s referring to when you were discussing kris benson’s start, and you said twice that he’d been ‘raked’…
which brings up something i’ve always wondered…why does the term ‘raking’, mean what it does in baseball circles?
MW: Got me.
- Jay BThey better bring the bats tonight with Litsche getting the ball that’s for darn sure.
- Vito From HamiltonMike…Watching the Sunday night game (Cubs/Brewers), Jon Miller and Joe Morgan were debating the idea of Soriano using his great power in an RBI spot, not the leadoff spot..And Joe Morgan stated that he (Soriano) tried it and he can’t do it, so leave well enough alone..Mike…Do you buy the argument that a guy “can’t” hit in certain spots in the batting order?
MW: Nope.
- chris m.Wow, what a bunch of negativity from fans of a team who are off to a 5-2 start. Give B.J. a break, it’s the first week of the year, he may simply not have his “stuff” together and be pitching through “dead-arm”. He has had bad outings before, altough rare.
- WeezyHey mike
Can you please tell me the difference between a slider and a cut fastball and which one does halladay throw because I’ve heard different broadcasters say different things.
MW: Halladay throws a cut fastball, but it’s kind of a mini-slider. The grip is similar, but a slider breaks more.
- JamesHey Mike how do have alot of time to respond to all these people!!!!
GOOD JOB!
MW: Thanks
- Raps FanMike,
Please explain the fans’ overreactions to ONE blown save, after YEARS of dominant closing.
MW: That’s why they’re called fans. There were only two years of dominant closing, though.
- TheSunkenZealotwhat exactly is the ’slurve’?
ive heard many analysts and commentators and experts, and a lot have different opionions.
please tell me yours
MW: It’s kind of a combination slider/curveball.
- TheSunkenZealotoverbay hitting first?
whyy?
i dont he has the speed to be a lead-off hitter.
he’s better in the ‘middle’ pack, where he can bring home guys with his doubles
MW: He has the ability to get on base, which is far more important than speed.
- TheSunkenZealotMW: And you’re being awfully harsh on a guy who has been to two all-star games
I don’t think I’m being awfully harsh on a guy that is earning $5.9M this year, $9+M next year and then a few years of $12M. I’m expecting a little bit more on the club’s huge investment than a couple of All Star appearances, I”m expecting a contribution to the team winning. Tonight he has hit well, but so far all singles. I’m not entirely convinced he’s a power hitter, even though the club certainly is. He’s had one good season of power hitting. The rest of the time he’s generally hit singles and doubles. I don’t have a problem with that as long as he keeps it up. To me, if tonight means he’s found his rhythm, he’s an ideal lead-off, and that’s where I’d like to see him bat.
As for the Adam Dunn thing, if they’d yanked him off the show there and then, it would have moved from a storm in a tea-cup to (even ore of) a Ricciardi Death Watch. Have a word with him to make sure it doesn’t happen again during the season, and tell him he’s going to decide he’s not going on the show the next season. That way Adam Dunn gets forgotten fairly quickly and everyone moves on. Management 101.
MW: Don’t you think they had “a word with him to make sure it doesn’t happen again” after the B.J. Ryan thing? As for Rios, he has made a rather significant contribution to the team winning over the last three years, just not making the playoffs and, of course, that’s all on him.
- isabella reyesMW: Don’t you think they had “a word with him to make sure it doesn’t happen again” after the B.J. Ryan thing? As for Rios, he has made a rather significant contribution to the team winning over the last three years, just not making the playoffs and, of course, that’s all on him.
What BJ Ryan thing? I go away a lot in the summer and I must have missed that.
As for Rios, of course the team isn’t all on him. But his contract is. And maybe that’s the problem, since he hasn’t played as well since he got it.
Look, I said above I have no problem with him if he plays well. But last year he had too many mental lapses and I’m hoping that doesn’t happen again this year. It’s possible that another part of the problem is the team’s expectation of him as a power hitter. I honestly don’t think that’s what he is. Yes, he’s got the height and the potential, but apart from that one wonder season, he’s a singles/doubles/occasional triple hitter. He’s really fast. I wish they’d let him hit lead-off. I think you’d see a terrific season out of him once the power pressure came off. But they don’t seem to want to do that. If they could lead with Rios and have Wells 3rd and Lind 4th with Rolen after Lind and then Overbay and Barajas, Scutaro would move way down in the lineup but would be a mini-lead-off for Snider who has real power to get over. That’s probably a dumb suggestion, which you will ridicule for hours. But Rios batting lead-off makes a ton of sense to me. And I think he’d get more than the occasional home run at that position.
In other news, it was nice to see BJ get the save.
MW: The Ryan thing with the lying about his elbow and everything. We’ve talked a lot here about Rios leading off, see above, for example.
- isabella reyesoverbay does have an excellent ability to get on base, but then why wouldnt you put the 50 HR, .400 OPS, 350 lbs. batter lead-off? because you need speed at the lead-off position and a guy like overbay who hits doubles should be used to bring people home, not to get on base.
There’s plenty of other guys (Hill, Scutaro, Rios) who can get on base about the same as Overbay, but hit less extra-base hits, and they have more speed.
MW: No, because you don’t want the 50-homer guy guaranteed at least one at-bat a game with no one on base. None of those other guys come close to getting on base about the same as Overbay against right-handers.
- TheSunkenZealotfor you,if overbay leads off vs righties, who leads off vs. left-handed pitching?
MW: Probably Hill.
- TheSunkenZealot