In 2004 the run differential was 0.3 and for 2005 it was 0.42. Home teams won 53.5% of the time in 2004 and 53.7% in 2005. Both are close to their Pythagorean expectations.

There’s no such thing as a “law of averages”. It’s also one of the biggest “gamblers’ fallacies”, especially for inexperienced gamblers”.

You flip a coin and get five heads. The odds of a head on flip number six are still 50/50. What happened on previous flips has no influence whatsoever on future events.

MW: You do realize, of course, that any numbers amassed over a four-game period mean nothing.

Well they have about the same significance as two years in the life of someone who lives to be eighty. And in the case of Lind, Snider, Scutaro, Purcey, & Romero it’s more significant than that because of the confidence factor that will help them down the road when they begin to struggle. It’s always nice to have a period of success in your past to fall back on. And they are working on obtaining that. This season is after all a dress rehearsal and try-out camp for the 2010.

“Just a completely random question here: On average, how many more runs per game do you think the home team scores than the road team does? My friend says it’s like 2.0 runs but I said, “no way” and think it’s more like 0.5. Thanks!”

MW: Wow, that is completely random. I doubt it’s as small as 0.5, but it could be. It’s definitely something we could probably look up, though.

From analyzing the past five regular seasons at Baseball Reference and this very useful site:

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search/?start_year=1977&end_year=2006&team=V&inning=1&outs=0&expectancybases=0&scorediff=0

The home team has won 54.0% of games and scored 5.08 runs per game.

The road team has won 46.0% of games and scored 4.72 runs per game.

The difference in runs scored is of coursed mollified by the fact that the home team often only comes to bat eight times (close to 50% of the time).

MW: There may be no law of averages, and you’re obviously absolutely right about the coin-flip thing, but it’s equally true that, as Joe Torre is fond of saying, “water finds its level” which is to say that things tend to even out. If you flip a coin 1,000 times you’re going to wind up close to 500-500 but there will be runs in there when you hit head six or seven times in a row and vice-versa. As for the four games thing, I’ll give you that it’s better for a young player to start on a tear so that there are still numbers to fall back on when you hit the slump, and you’re not spending the first two months of the season trying to get off the interstate.

Great to have the Jays in 1st place in the AL East and with the 2nd best record in baseball. Shame it isn’t the final week of the season!

I know it’s early yet and we’ve started with a bang that won’t last 156 more games but it seems pretty clear that this team will give us some exciting baseball this year… if not exactly playoff hopes.

2 questions -

1) At what point do the Jays have to do something about BJ Ryan (when does enough become enough)? And if that point comes and his poor performance doesn’t involve anything injury related, what do you think most likely happens?

2) For reasons of being up-to-date (and because it’s getting worn out), I’m retiring my ’06 Glaus shirt. I need a replacement and I’m torn between Hill (who I’m so thrilled to see back, healthy and productive) and Halladay (whose awesomeness I want to appreciate as much as possible in case these persistent trade rumours prove true). I can’t decide. Please help!

Thanks, take care and Happy Passover.

MW: Thanks. 1 – Soon, and what’s most likely to happen is that Ryan moves into a less-significant role in the bullpen until he figures things out. 2 – As much as I love Aaron Hill, you absolutely can’t go wrong with Halladay.

MW: I think he’s saying they’d rather have their ace pitch in a far more favourable pitching match-up, but I think that’s a bit short-sighted.

Watching the game today, and I’m really wondering about the scoring on the run that Kevin Millar scored. How can that not be an error on Shoppach? Millar was “meatcake” (to use your term), the throw was fine, Shoppach had it in his glove, and then “lost it” (maybe with a bit of help from Millar, but…) A big-league catcher is supposed to make that play!

That is one Earned Run with which Lee definitely should not have been saddled (and one RBI that Hill should not have on his record).

What say you?

MW: It’s a valid argument. Millar was, in fact, meatcake on that play, but his slide knocked the ball loose. I think when that happens you won’t often see an error scored.

MW: I can’t recall the name of the book off the top of my head, I’ll try to find out for you.

Now that BJ Ryan looks like he needs serious remedial work, I would have said the logical alternative was League -until I say him pitch last night. Where in your opinion do we go from here in terms of closing out ballgames, Scott Downs?

MW: Probably.

MW: And for the record, in 1992 and ‘93 combined, Alomar had 10 sacrifice bunts. Granted, that’s 10 too many, but it was hardly “every time”.

Ken – Not sure you got my point. It wasn’t how many sac bunts Alomar made, but how often Cito asked him to bunt that I was talking about. When a manager asks for a sac bunt several things can happen:

a) – a successful sac ensues

b) – an infield single

c) – a fielders’ choice

d) – a pop up

e) – bunt is taken off after two strikes

f) – batter misses the sign either deliberately or not

g) – batter mentally says “screw you” and hits away.

h) – batter bunts foul with two strikes and is out

i) – runner is caught stealing or picked off

j) – runner advances on a passed ball or wild pitch

k) – batter walks

You are not counting all the times that b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, and k happened. All you are looking at is the number of occasions when (a) happened.

And for the record Alomar had 16 sac bunts in 1991. I suspect Gillick told Cito to “smarten up” after that season. And the sac bunts decreased by 63% in 1992 and a further 50% in 1993. I suspect that 1991 is the year that really sticks in my mind, when Alomar was giving up a lot of at bats. I just remember Cito doing it, not the exact season.

MW: Unfortunately, there’s no way to go back and check how often Alomar was sent up to bunt but didn’t execute successfully, or showed bunt but then didn’t. Regardless, that was still a major exaggeration on your part.

Gibbons was the Manager and wanted to play him, Cito showed JP who was boss when he took over, Lind was up instantly and played every day and Wilkerson was pinned to the bench.

What Cito has done for this team is unbelievable, I have been saying for years, the problem with the Jays was the manager (Raptors too) NOT the players. Cito has a good shot to win Manager of the year this year if the Jays play solid ball for the full 162. So many things this year Cito has done Gibbons would not have which inlcudes keeping Overbay in to face tough lefties late in games, having Barajas hit the other night with bases loaded 1 out for the win, have Purcey battle through some tough innings without going to the bullpen. I LOVE IT! Confidence, consistency AND putting the best players on the field regardless of age, egos and friendships!

MW: It’s amazing how people think that John Gibbons was a puppet of J.P.’s, except in the case of Adam Lind. To say that the problem with the Jays from 2006-08 was the manager and not the players is simply ludicrous. Gibbons didn’t hit .180 with runners in scoring position last April and June.

MW: It’s not even close to that bad.