4:35 PM Eastern
Sorry for not blogging it up last night, but with the combo day-game-after-night-game coming up and the game finishing early enough for me to make it to the end of a seder, I figured you wouldn’t mind if I high-tailed it out of here.
There wasn’t much to say about last night’s game anyway – Jesse Litsch made three big mistakes and the Jays let Zach Miner off the hook early, and we were all really looking forward to today’s game anyway. For the first time ever, two first-round pitchers made their major-league debuts against each other, and Ricky Romero came out on top.
Both Romero and Rick Porcello pitched very well, and through five, each had given up two runs and walked one. Romero had five strikeouts to Porcello’s four, and Porcello allowed six hits to Romero’s seven. Very even. But Adam Lind took Porcello deep to lead off the sixth, and that got Romero and the Jays the win, thanks to three shutout innings from the bullpen.
Romero actually deserved better – if you watch the highlights you’ll see a phenomenal play by Jose Bautista on a hot shot to his left by Brandon Inge with the bases loaded in the third to end the inning. If Bautista doesn’t make that play, two runs score, the Jays are down 4-0, Romero is likely very close to hitting the showers and the story of the day is written far differently. However, Bautista bailed HIMSELF out of that inning as much as he bailed out Ricky. If that Inge grounder had gotten through and the Jays had gone on to lose, the title of this blog post would have been “How Do You Overrun A Ground Ball?” because that’s what Bautista did three batters earlier.
With two out and nobody on in the third, Curtis Granderson homered and Marcus Thames followed with a drive off the right-field wall, then off Alex Rios’ right temple, that went for a triple. It was pretty scary as Rios held the side of his head while chasing the ball in the right-field corner, but he stayed in the game and later made a great throw to help nail Ramon Santiago at the plate and ran hard to first on a groundout. Hopefully he’s fine, but you never know with potential head injuries.
Anyway, after the Thames triple, Magglio Ordonez hit a very routine grounder to the right of Marco Scutaro, but Bautista cut in front to make the play, went too far and reached back, managing just to get a glove on it. He screened Scutaro, so Marco couldn’t come up with the ball either, and the inning continued, setting the stage for Bautista’s great play later.
The misplay went for a single, and added two hits and a walk to Romero’s final line.
I really liked what I saw out of Romero today, he showed a very good slider and a terrific change-up as well as a fastball that hit 91-92. I’m looking forward to seeing him the next few times out, and seeing how he adjusts to the league once everyone gets a good look at him.
As for the bats – no complaints today. Six runs on 12 hits despite the fact that Vernon Wells and Rios combined to go 0-for-8. And the wallbangers? Well, aside from Rios actually banging the wall, the Jays pounded three more homers today to raise their season total to seven. That’s a 284-homer pace for the season with no contributions so far from Wells and Rios, who will likely combine to hit at least 50 this year (assuming Rios’ head is OK). It was nice to see Snider pound the wall as well – the bottom of it, at least, but on the fly – with his 6th-inning RBI double off lefty Nate Robertson. Not a good lefty, but a lefty nonetheless. I’m interested to see which of Snider or Lind, if either one, takes a seat tomorrow afternoon with the Indians throwing a lefty.
All in all, an excellent series to open the season for the Jays. Now it’s on to Cleveland, where the Jays are 2-14 since and including the 2004 season and where, in one four-game series last May, they lost Vernon Wells for a month and managed to score all of one run in the first 36 innings. Scott Richmond makes his season debut against Scott Baker, and make sure to tune us in all along the Fan Radio Network at 3:30 Eastern for a 4:05 first pitch.
Here’s this afternoon’s The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Before I go, I just want to let you know, in case you didn’t hear last night or this afternoon, or read in the comments, that Wednesdays with J.P. is no more. The decision was completely J.P.’s, we would have loved to have had him back, but he told me yesterday that he doesn’t want to do it anymore. It’s too bad, it was great radio and personally, I really enjoyed it. As I said on the post-game today, I’ll be trying to get different people in to fill the gap, but I don’t know how successful I’ll be, at least not on a regular basis.
Enjoy your seders tonight, if you celebrate!
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
Click here to subscribe to Wilner's blog
Michael,
Much ado about McCowan’s 90-win forecast for the Jays this season. I’m wondering if you made your own predictions – what’s the over/under on Blue Jay wins this season?
Cat.
MW: You have to go back and read the blog, Cat! I made my big pronouncement on my thoughts about the Jays’ fortunes just before the season.
- Cat MadeIm not surprised JP stopped the wednesday’s wth JP. That is to bad, perhaps with expectations being low this year he did not want to subject himself to the abuse he may have taken.
- KJDI’m not surprised that JP declined to do WWJP, as it was something I view as way above the call of duty for a GM in the first place. I really enjoyed the WWJP’s and give him a lot of credit for being so accessable to the fans. I’m a season ticket holder and really appreciated that he came on each week no matter how the Jay fortunes were turing.
I’m sure the JP haters will jump on this move but who can name another pro-team GM who made themselves so accessable to the fans?
I would look forward to an alternative where you get a Jay or visiting opponent to take calls. Good luck though on road games. Here is my 1st suggestion for you – Joey Votto June 24th. How about AJ Burnett Aug 5th HA!
MW: It’ll never happen on a road game. I hadn’t thought about trying to get a visitor to do it, it’s an interesting idea but I doubt it’ll fly.
- Rezactually Mike a new idea for you – WWRJ.
- RezWednesdays with Reed Johnson ! I’m sure he’ll be free most Wednesday nights and there will still be tons of callers wanting to talk to him.
What are you thoughts on the attendance this week? How much of a problem is it? Is it the team, the club, the economy, or dampened expectations keeping people home?
2nd question. Kevin Millar has not played yet. He got 70-odds RBIs and 20 HRs last year, almost the same as he got with the 2004 Red Sox (although his average in 2004 way way higher). Do you this he the sort of ‘team player’ who will accept what looks like a limited role? Or will he have a Zaun-esque huff? Would you have got him into a game yet?
MW: Me thoughts on the attendance are that I don’t think it’s a big problem, I expected it to fall off a bit this year. I think it’s a combination of the expectations and the economy, but remember too that attendance tends always to be low for the April and May mid-week games. I’m sure we’ll see 20,000+ for the Friday/Saturday/Sunday games. As for Millar, I expect him to pretty much be in a strict platoon with Lyle Overbay at first.
- Ben AssyntAnd yes, I see the typos in that previous post. You don’t need to point them all out!
MW: If you don’t want me to point them out, don’t make them.
- Ben AssyntHey Mike,
Glad to have you back on the Fan and good to see the Jays start the year 3 and 1. If the young pitchers, we’ll see what happens with Richmond tomorrow, can keep up anything close to what we’ve seen so far we may very well compete for a wild card spot. Also, do you know the last time the Jays won when both Rios and Well didn’t pick up a hit?
Thanks,
James
MW: No, but I’m sure it wasn’t that long ago. They only had one hit between them in Tuesday night’s win.
- James R.3-1 I think we all would have taken that before the season started – good to see some optimism back in Blue Jays land, at least for now.
It’s too bad that JP is declining to continue “Wednesdays with JP”
I always thought it was kind of brave(?) to keep putting up with the normally negative comments that were thrown his way and it would have been worse this year.
I liked the fact that he came with a bit of an attitude and always stuck up for his club.
I like Cito but he’s one of the worst interviews ever…….unless you ask about Roger Clemons :-)
See you in Cleveland tomorrow.
- GaryHi Mike,
That is a real shame about losing Wednesday nights with JP. That was fantastic radio and very unique in MLB. I wonder if the Adam Dunn incident, which got national headlines had something to do with it and JP and/or his advisors suggested it might not be such a good idea to be too open on national radio.
Real shame. I suggest replacing it with Wednesday nights with Richard Griffin.
MW: That’s not going to happen.
- OzRobhi mike.
i noticed David Cooper is starting the year at AA, do you anticipate him moving to AAA this year? maybe even the Jays? Also, what is the timetable for Jansen’s return.
thanks.
bob from guelph
MW: Once a guy gets to AA, he could be called up to the big leagues at anytime. That said, I don’t expect to see Cooper in the majors this year, but you never know. If he does well at AA, he’ll go up to Vegas at some point this year. As for Janssen, I expect he’ll be ready to pitch in the majors by mid-May.
- Bob from guelphI am sitting here with tears in my eyes having just come from the Angel’s website where I read so many wonderful comments about Nick Adenhart. What a horrible way to start the season, to have a life taken from us so senselessly. The posters that had met him all commented on how warm, friendly and down-to-earth he was, taking time to let everyone get autographs, pictures, etc. I hope every baseball fan takes a moment to reflect or offer a prayer that we never need to face this type of tragedy again. Hug your kids and remember how special they are.
- AlanHey Mike thats to bad about JP but that was a wild story about Lennox Lewis. Boxing is my third favorate spots after baseball then hockey. BTW I should point out that origionally I was refuring to Andy Frost the radio personality for the Maple Leafs. He has the same job as you accept he also does the PA announcing as well as the Leaftalk program. I had no idea there was an Andy Frost who was a musician. Anyway I didn’t see the game today because I had a wisdom tooth pulled but I was wondering if you agreed with an issue I had during yesterdays game in the botton of the first inning. When Rio’s was tagging up on the throw, it didn’t look like he was giving it 100% speed towards home. The camera on TV showed him running and I thought he could have been putting more effort into it even though it was a terrific throw home. You probably didn’t see the same camera angle as I did but let me know if you agree, disagree, or unsure. Hope you get the Lennox interview!
MW: Your spelling is atrocious. And why would you put an apostrophe in someone’s name? Sorry, but it just colours the whole comment for me. Andy Frost, who does the PA for the Leafs and hosts their post-game, is also one of the greatest rock’n'roll DJ’s in the history of anything. As for Rios, I didn’t see a replay, but I saw it live, and I didn’t have a problem with his effort at all.
- Matt from BCIt’s probably a bit early to look at statistics, but this year, I’m tracking the basic Runs Created statistic, with a minor adjustment: I’m including HBP in with walks since they have the same impact – put the batter on and advance runners forced to move up.
For the offense to have done there job well, they need to produce above the historical AL average of 4.5 runs per game. Dividing this by 9 batters in the lineup, that translates into 1/2 a run created per batter per game played. (I may convert this to “per plate appearance”.) Corner outfielders, DHs and corner infielders are typically expected to produce more runs while the players up the middle typically are a bit lower.
After four games, the Jay’s total RC is 24.1 compared to 24 runs scored, so the formula works well in aggregate.
(RC is known to overstate the contribution of players with high OPB and slugging percentage, but I’m not tracking enough detail to use the 2002 version of the RC formula.)
For those that want to extrapolate 3-1 into 122-40, Lynd’s RC/G is 1.53, followed by Scutero (1.2), Rolen (1.0), Hill (0.7) and Snider (0.64), with the trio of Well, Rios and Overbay all in the 0.4 to 0.5 range. Snider, batting at the bottom of the order, has produced his runs we fewer plate appearances.
- Alan the stat geekMike, I find it painful that I was only able to watch the Opener but missed the other two victories because they were not televised on SN. Maybe now would be a good time for the station to consider changing it’s name to Sports Niet.
- Vito From HamiltonHi Mike,
I love your blog and your radio show.
Just wanted to correct your last paragraph. I think you mean Scott Lewis will be starting for the Indians tomorrow and not Scott Baker.
MW: Yep, you’re right. I always get those two guys confused.
- MikeMike, a happy Passover to you and your family, I celebrate Easter and I’m going to my parents place this Sunday for an Easter lunch, so that will be enjoyable. I’m disappointed to hear that Wednesdays with JP has been discontinued, but I look forward to you coming up with something that will air on a regular or semi-regular basis, whether it’s on the postgame or on the Blue Jays This Week.
- Peteri’m gutted to hear there are no more wednesdays with J.P., that was really a great part of the programme. Any chance of convincing him to come back?
MW: I doubt it.
- PaulOMike, tonight on the air you were talking about how the Jays were wearing Maple Leaves on their various uniforms, however you didn’t mention the powder blues. Are they not wearing those this season on Fridays?
MW: I assume they will still be wearing those on Fridays at home, yes.
- Sam McLeanI hope both kids play against Lee tomorrow and every tough lefty. They gotta learn to hit the lefties just like Olerud and Delgado did. Overbay hit .215 last season against lefties and looked awful against a “bad lefty” in Nate Robertson on wednesday. He should sit and Millar should play first tomorrow. I don’t think that Overbay should be in strict platoon, only against tough lefties because he is awesome defensively and I like his presence on the field. But, 158 games was too much for him last season. Scott Downs is down right filthy. I have so much confidence in him. I do worry about BJ Ryan and I hope he has a good season. He had good numbers last season and only blew 4 saves but they were complete meltdowns. Despite giving up the homer to Inge the other night he did pitch okay. My prediction is still 75 wins because I feel the pen will be overworked because of the inexperienced starters. But, the hitting has been very good so far and Romero was impressive. I saw the game live today. I hope they prove me wrong and I feel less confident about my prediction then I did a week ago. Go Jays Go! The best thing that can happen tomorrow is if both Lind and Snider play tomorrow and have success against Lee and gain confidence that they can hit lefties, even Cy Young award winning lefties.
- DomenickHey Mike,
Great start to the season! I actually predicted a 3-1 series victory for the Jays (Post 29 April 4). So I’ll try my hand again for this second series.
For this series, it seems to me like the Indians should have the edge for the following reasons:
1) Law of averages: They’ve lost their first 3 games and have surrendered 29 runs in the process. This can’t go on forever.
2) If you look at the last 2 years, the Indians had very good home records and the Jays had not very good road records.
3) The Indians handled the Jays pretty easily last year.
That being said, I’m going to defy logic, and still predict a 2-1 Jays series victory. I think Halladay will come out on top of Lee and one of Richmond or Purcey (or the bullpen) will defeat Lewis or Reyes (or the Indians bullpen). It should be tough series though.
Go Jays
- RMThrough 2 games in AA, Emaus is 6 for 8 with 4 doubles and 7 RBI’s! Small sample size, but after his strong Spring, this is someone to keep an eye on indeed!
- RMMike,
I’ve had the pleasure of catching all 4 games so far(2 on tv and 2 on xm radio). Very exciting stuff early. Maybe this year will be a reverse of fortunes. I think to offense can only get better too. Is it just me, or are you getting more air time during the game? They are taking advantage of your wealth of knowledge. Is Pedro still looking for work? If he is still in May and the Jays have a good April, any chance they spend the 5-6 mil he is asking for? Looking forward to watching the Jays in Arlington even though if my memory serves me right, the Jays have struggled there. Thanks Mike
MW: I don’t think I have been getting more air time than usual. Yes, Pedro is still looking for work, and no, I don’t think the Jays will come up with the scratch.
- justinMike,
- Cleveland MarkJ.P.’s dutiful appearance on Wednesdays set a deliberate tone of engagement with and accountability to the fans. I agree that it was great radio, not least because J.P. was generous and consciencious in fielding questions. It was the kind of above and beyond the call of duty sort of thing that somebody who knows he has something to prove and wants to establish himself long term does. I don’t think it would be reading too much into his decision to interpret it to signal a shift in tone. J.P. is content to do his duty, probably because he knows his days are numbered. It is Cito’s team now, irrespective of the fact that J.P. deserves lot’s of credit for drafting the talented pitchers on the DL and the young lions who defeated their Tiger adversaries in debuts this week.
Did JP say why he didn’t want to do it anymore?
MW: Yes. I don’t think it would be too difficult for any of you out there to guess what his reasons were.
- gregHi Mike,
Great game this afternoon. I watched the Tigers feed that they had playing on Rogers Preview. I really enjoyed listening to their view of the game. They were obviously discussing lots about the Tigers but they also had a lot of interesting perspectives about the Blue Jays. Even at one point they said that the Jays could come up and surprise a lot of people this year. I am holding out some hope but am a realist and figure if we get 81 wins it would be a successful season given the pitching.
One thing they did note during the game was the reluctance of Romero to throw fastballs inside to righties and they blame this for the Tigers hitting him in the 3rd inning. Do you think this is a problem with Romero and will Arny work with him on this before his next start? It did appear to me that the Tigers hitters were a little too comfortable and were not afraid to lean out over the plate.
MW: It’s all part of the process. For a group of too-comfortable hitters, they sure didn’t do much against Romero after that 3rd inning.
- Andrew ClarkHey, Mike. This is completely off topic, but who was the last starting pitcher to be elected to the HOF? It seems strange that no starters have been elected right as the transitional period of bullpen use comes into its election years. Is it possible that the voters don’t recognize some of the great starters of the 1980s simply because they didn’t finish games the way their predecessors did? Or was there actually a fallow period in starting pitching? I noticed that Jack Morris was not on your ballot, which is what ot me thinking about this stuff. Apologies if you’ve written/spoken about this elsewhere. Thanks!
MW: The last starting pitcher to be elected on the writers’ ballot was Nolan Ryan, in 1999. I don’t think it’s as simple as a lack of complete games that kept a lot of the starters of the ’80s out of the Hall, maybe there was a bit of a dearth of Hall of Fame type starters in the ’80s. I think Jack Morris and Dave Stieb were probably the best starting pitchers who had their peaks in the 1980s, and I don’t think either of them belong in the Hall.
- Nickif they jays are going into next season with 8 or 9 potential starters what do you think of texas as a possible trading partner. They have a ton of good bats with no pitching. Maybe you can put together a package to get andrus to meet the need at short or davis who would give the jays a legit power hitter.
MW: The Rangers are always looking for starting pitching, and Davis and Andrus are two good guys at whom to look.
- joshHappy Holidays Mike. Not sure if you are taking any days off, but enjoy them if you are.
Another impressive win for the Jays. Another HR by Hill!! Homerun from Scuttaro ?? Lind is still hot. Two hits from all of Scutaro, Batista, Overbay, & Snider. Good work from the bullpen and perhaps best of all Romero looked like he belonged out there, out pitching the Tigers’ hot shot future star.
Still a half game ahead of the mighty Rays (who of course of heading for a precipitous fall) :-).
It’s still early yet but here are the OPS for the Blue Jay regulars after four games:
Lind 1.283
Rolen 1.021
Scutaro .980 !!
Snider .929
Hill .923
Wells .753
Rios .639 SIGH
Overbay .627 SIGH
MW: You do realize, of course, that any numbers amassed over a four-game period mean nothing.
- KenI am a little disappointed to hear J.P. won’t be on this season but in a way I don’t blame him. He did something that is pretty much unheard of in the world of sports by giving the fans and the critics an avenue to vent on on a weekly basis. People in management are often criticized for having nothing to say. At times J.P. said more than he maybe should have (Adam Dunn, B.J Ryan) and he was criticized for that. I think he was in a no win situation. I would like to thank J.P for doing this for as long as he did. I know it’s likely not possible but it would be cool to get the chance to talk to a player now and again.
- Dan from ElmvaleMike
Two questions
1. When do you foresee Snider finally moving up in the order to 8th, even 7th..he is too good for 9th.
2. Do you see Romero vying for ROY honours at the end of the year. I really like his stuff I even think its better than Jesse’s
MW: I would expect Snider to be out of the nine-hole by the end of the month, at the latest, and no.
- Tarun JosephHey Mike
I’m sorry to hear that JP won’t be returning to the post game talk show on wednesday nights. Certainly i would be labelled as a JP basher but i did admire him for having the stones to go on the air live and field questions from the Jays faithful. i’ll bet there are not too many GM’s that do this, especially when things are not going so well for the ballclub. With the trouble it brought him last year (ie Dunn), i certainly understand his reluctance to do the show again this year. Maybe you could convince him to do the show on a couple of occasions this year?
MW: I wouldn’t bet on it, and it’s a shame.
- rickMichael of the Ballyard:
I’m sorry, but it wouldn’t be very journalistically responsible of me to not press you further on this WWJP thing. (I know, you’re a journalist, so that makes it pretty weird, but whatever)
Why do you think he’s not interested in doing the show anymore? Do you think he feels embattled and doesn’t want to be exposed in that state (more so than others years)? Has he done the show multiple years in a row, and, if so, have callers gotten progressively more critical and/or him progressively shorter?
MW: I know why he’s not interested in doing the show anymore, and as I said above, I don’t think it’s all that difficult to guess the reasons. I don’t think he feels embattled (can one feel embattled?), but I do think that he’s shunned the spotlight a little more this year, probably because of Paul Beeston and Cito Gaston. The calls haven’t gotten more critical over the years, the vast majority of the J.P. bashers never called on Wednesdays.
- JCLHey Mike,
Just a completely random question here: On average, how many more runs per game do you think the home team scores than the road team does? My friend says it’s like 2.0 runs but I said, “no way” and think it’s more like 0.5. Thanks!
MW: Wow, that is completely random. I doubt it’s as small as 0.5, but it could be. It’s definitely something we could probably look up, though.
- Justin from ArdtreaHow about Alex A? He’d make an excellent regular guest.
Any buzz around the team about the Sandler article on the jays interest in Rick Welt? From reading the article he sounds like he’d be a top-notch hire.
http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Jays+have+their+eyes+Welts/1472939/story.html
MW: Anthopoulos would be a great regular guest, but I don’t think that J.P. would want one of his lieutenants doing the show if he won’t, and vice-versa. As for Rick Welts, I haven’t really heard any buzz about his candidacy for the president’s job, but they could do a LOT worse. We’ll see when his contract with the Suns expires in June.
- WillRainJP def. did not want to hear the wrath of the fans about $$$ dipping back etc. I dont blame him really. Solid ballgame again yesterday. I love how the Jays seem to be pounding out runs thus far and hopefully it will continue. The problem is now we head to Cleveland. I was there last year in May for my first ever baseball roadtrip and it was brutal. Aside from the city being a construction patch in the downtown core and boarded up homes every fifth house, the series was a dud. Had tix for the first 3 games and witnessed a 6-1 loss and wells breaking his wrist, followed by a 12-0 blowout and then sat in the rain for 2hrs only to have them call the game after the rain stopped for the rest of the day. What a trip indeed. Didnt even get my $$$ back for the doubleheader game because we had to leave on the Sunday so everyone could get back to their jobs! Worst weekend ever! Lets hope the Jays have a happy Easter in Ohio!
MW: That was an awful series for the Jays last May. They scored ONE run over the first 36 innings!
- Dave BrantfordI can’t blame JP for not wanting to answer asinine questions ad noseum about corner infielders and his relationship with Adam Dunn.
I’ll chalk up the Bautista boot to limited playing time thus far – but he’s already on pretty thin ice with that bloated contract on a team that is financially constrained.
Nice to see that the bullpen seems to be back in form, not that it ever seemed like it wasn’t. As I spent the offseason arguing with doom-n-gloom types, who predicted 65 wins for the ’09 Jays, they would routinely argue that there’s no way the bullpen would repeat their performance. Apparently bringing back more or less the exact same group, perhaps healthier and certainly more experienced than last year, just isn’t enough…
I’m willing to do Wednesdays with KP if you’ll have me on!
- KPToo bad about no more Wednesdays with J.P., but I can understand why he wouldn’t want to do it anymore. Especially considering he was the only GM anywhere (to my knowledge) that did a show like that. It was great insight for the fans, too bad.
- Mike MJust FYI…The Broadcasters in Boston, Jery Remy and Don Orsillo, have talked before on the air about Wednesday’s with JP. They joke about JP’s willingness to talk to the fans every week after the game, win or lose. They are completely stunned that he would offer to do something like that and take the “heat” from some of the uninformed fans who call in. They routinely ask, “Who does that?”.
MW: The answer to that question now is “nobody”.
- DanHey mike. One question in two parts. First, do you think that in Mid-May Romero/Richmond will be traded? And if so, do you think they/he will be traded for another prospect, or for an established player, most likely at shortstop?
I think that a Romero + Scutaro for JJ Hardy trade is profitable for all parties.
What do you think?
MW: I doubt any of the young pitching will be traded for quite a while. I don’t know if trading Romero for a year and a half of J.J. Hardy is the right thing to do.
- davemichael,
that was my first really good look up close at the power hitting 1b this detroit team has.
saw 3 of the 4 games in person.
this cabrera is one heck of a hitter. no doubt.
michael, does he not look like he has a very good chance to fit himself somewhere in between or perhaps ahead of the likes of pujols, griffey or dare i say it,rodriguez or bonds in regards to total hr’s & rbi’s?
just a great swing that young man has………..
MW: Miguel Cabrera is one of the most prolific young power hitters in the history of the game. He certainly does have the chance to get into that territory.
- darrell bishopNo more Wednesdays with J.P.
I’d bet that’s not J.P.’s decision.
I’d bet that Cito discouraged it, since it’s just another opportunity for J.P. to call out an opposing player (Adam Dunn) or talk up useless acquisitions (remember David Eckstein, the No. 3 shortstop) that Cito has no intention of using.
It’s Cito’s team now.
MW: I’ll guarantee you that Cito had nothing to do with it. I’d wager that Gaston didn’t even know J.P. did the show.
- Ken PaganThe less we hear from JP the better!
MW: Yeah, because who wants a general manager to take phone calls from the fans once a week?
- AndrewI have a purely hypothetical question for you: Would you have made the Lincecum for Rios deal last year?..The original plan was to increase payroll and if that happened..Imagine a rotation featuring..Halladay, Burnett, Lincecum, Marcum and Mcgowan going into 2010..Not bad..They wouldn’t need to score any runs..
MW: You can answer that question yourself by looking back in the archives of this very blog. Yes, I would have.
- ray bPost the Jaystalk !!
- LaffinatorHeyy Mike,
I was just wondering about these two Blue Jays prospects,
What are the scouting reports on these guys? When could we see them up with the blue jays?
1. 3B Kevin Ahrens
2. SS Justin Jackson
MW: Ahrens has drawn comparisons to Chipper Jones, and Jackson has a great glove but needs to work on his contact rate – a lot. Both were drafted out of high school, so they’re a ways away.
- JazzHi Mike,
I know it’s the first series, but I liked how the Jays looked. It is not unreasonable to expect to see better offensive output from every position outside of catcher and shortstop. It would be a welcome change, as last year’s offensive struggles were quite discouraging, after they would fall behind even by a couple of runs.
A couple of questions for you: where is Casey Janssen these days? Is he pitching in AAA? Or has that season even started? And a bit of a personal question – do you have a favourite player on the Blue Jays?
Thanks! Too bad about Wednesdays with JP, I enjoyed that show. Keep up the good work anyhow!
MW: See above for the Janssen news.
- RoryHi, Mike:
Listening to the rain delay show today, and I heard your response to the caller that asked about Cito’s “approach to the hitters”. You correctly stated that he (Cito) was a hitting coach, but you were incorrect in saying that he had been a catcher in his playing days.
As confirmed in the “historical players” section of MLB.com home page, Cito is listed as an outfielder — which is what I recalled. There is another Gaston (first name Alex) who was a catcher, and had a relatively insignificant career with the Giants and Red Sox back in the 1920′s.
MW: I appreciate the correction, but you misheard. I said that John Gibbons was a catcher, not Cito.
- NormHey MIke, The fan has switched to covering basketball, and I’ve gone up and down the dial, and can’t find you guys. If play were to resume, they probably won’t put it on fan590.com, that’s where I’m listening now at the moment. Where are you broadcasting on the dial now? Talk 820 isn’t carrying it, nore is 1150. So where could i go if play were to resume? I don’t have any MLB.com subscription, or anything like that. I’m in Brantford Ontario here. Hope you’re looking at comments to the blog right now, if so, figured i’d submit a comment. to enquire about this.
MW: Sorry.
- DanMichael. I am at my wit’s end, I cannot find the rain delay show anywhere this evening, due to the fan 590 carrying the Raptors, and your Hamilton affiliates, Talk 820 and 1150 CKOC airing other programming. I hope this situation doesn’t arise again in the future. Ideally I would like to hear baseball right now, but I really enjoy your all shows, whether it’s JaysTalk, the rain delay show, the pre-pregame, whatever the case may be. It’s not even on fan590.com. I want to scream my head off right now but I won’t out of courtesy to my neighbors. Take care Mike.
Peter, St.Catharines
- PeterMike,
Whick Chuck E. Cheese’s you and Lennox were in? Since you live in Mississauga, my guess would be the one on Argentia Rd.? It’s very close to my house. I don’t think you went to the one in Rockwood Mall. I am excited to hear from you.
MW: It was the Rockwood Chuck E.’s.
- BeburgEarly days. I’m no optimist. I’m no pessimist. But it’s nice to see the bats coming back after their long hibernation.
Don’t eat too much matzah!
- isabella reyesjays are officially going to be world series champs, hell i told all my friends, watch for a bloated april of maybe a .700 ball team. We face no real threats in april. (Knock on wood). Anyways sir, thanks for the wonderful insight, i will pursue my mba eventually, maybe in the next year or so, parttime, while working a rogers corporate offices, then who knows maybe i can work with my beloved jays. :)
MW: Officially?
- paoloHi Mike,
With the Jays scoring all these runs, when do you think we’ll start to see John McDonald get a decent amount of playing time? I recall Cito saying that Johnny Mac would start more if the Jays could score lots of runs to make up for him. I would like to see him get a start, but thats probably because I’m a huge fan of his. Another question i have for you is what would happen if all five of the jays opening day starting pitchers pitched very good this season, would Cecil and/or Mills still get called up?
MW: If they all pitch very well, then Cecil will have to leave them no choice but to call him up with his work in Vegas. Mills is farther down the pecking order. I don’t think we’ll see McDonald get much playing time.
- BradMike….Just before the huge rain delay, a fan (I assume an Indians’ fan) tossed Scutaro’s home run ball back on the field and according to Pat Tabler, came close to hitting Jhonny Peralta. Going back to a few days ago here talking about throwing objects on the field and myself stating that even the homerun ball getting tossed back is dangerous, this could’ve been one of those incidents? And using your criteria Mike that most of the people doing that stuff would fail a sobriety test, then the first prority of a drunken person would not be the safety of their home players it’s just to toss that ball back anywhere.
MW: I don’t think that people who throw home run balls back are drunks, it’s kind of a time-honoured tradition. The guy who threw Scoot’s ball back last night was kind of late, though.
- chris m.Maybe scorer should award wins ..
To have Ryan and League getting wins after how they pitched is ludicrous, don’t you think ?
MW: Neither of them deserved it, but that’s the way scoring works.
- Chas CalzHey Mike, i didn’t see the game (at work) but how did Romero look ?
Slider, changeup, fastball seems like a good repetoire. Do you think he has the ability to succeed in the big leagues ? Assuming he doesn’t have control issues.
MW: He looked very good and yes, if he can keep his control under, umm, control, then he has a good chance to succeed.
- DaveGreat job, Mike. I feel sorry for you most days as I listen to the post-game as often as I can. I think you have to listen to too many whiners who think they could build a better team than J.P. has put on the field. They should try to put together a fantasy team with the same payroll as the Jays and see that it is very difficult to improve this product with the money he has to play with. J.P. has done a great job putting together some fairly proven veterans in the batting lineup; bottom line is that this team needs to hit and come up with timely hits. All the Jays fans need to admit that the best pitching and defense in the league will not get them any higher than third in the division without production from the guys that go to the plate.
- CurtisBTW Last night I watched Ryan Garko botch two throws and a pop-up into shallow right that Overbay would have undoubtedly turned into at least two outs. The Jays need this guy. I am a huge Johnny Mac fan, but Scutaro made a play in the hole last night that I don’t think Johnny makes based on arm strength. THIS IS A GOOD TEAM, AND IF THE BATS PRODUCE THEY WILL BE EVEN MORE FUN TO WATCH. Keep up the good work.
i was checking the sortable team stats on mlb.com but I couldnt understand GDP, what is GDP?
THANKS
MW: Ground into Double Play
- nickAs great as the “Dunnmoment” was last year, I guess it’s too bad since it clearly cost us the segment which was interesting.
- stephenMike,
Just watching the Saturday game. Wondering why Bautista is in the line up? Why wouldn’t you play Lind in LF and Snider at DH?
Thanks
MW: If Snider was playing, he’d be in left, but I guess Cito wants to ease Snider in against left-handed pitching.
- TomisYou think that Kevin Millar is gonna steal Lyle Overbay’s spot at 1B?
MW: No.
- andrewWhy can’t Gibbons come back o we can send Lind to the minors and re-sign Wilkerson? Also so we can bench Scutaro more often?
Sarcasm is indeed in play here.
Keep it up Cito and the Jays!
MW: I remember the day that John Gibbons signed Wilkerson. Not the best idea.
- MateoMike, here’s an idea. How about Wednesday Nights With Vito From Hamilton?
MW: It’s definitely an idea. REALLY not a good one, but an idea.
- Vito From HamiltonWilner,
I’m pleasantly surprised with the start to the Jays this year. Something tells me this has a lot more to do with Cito, then most will acknowledge. I’m sure they won’t be able to keep up this pace all season long, however, if they can remain competitive through September, I’ll be satisfied.
Who have you been most happiest with? least happiest?
For me, I’d have to say Lind, Rolen, Snider, Scutaro and Hill have been the most pleasant.
B.J Ryan and Brandon League have been slightly disappointing. Of course with a 5-1 record, I’m not going to complain too much :-)
MW: I’ve been most pleasantly surprised by Lind and Scutaro, and just really happy to see Hill back in there.
- BobbyMike, Ryan is beginning to scare me now. Bases loaded, 2 out.
- Vito From HamiltonRyan’s done. Jays finally get the ball rolling offensively and Ryan has to pick this time to SUCK?
- Vito From HamiltonDo you at all think the Jays might catch lightning in a bottle this year with the young bats, like Tampa did last year?
Also, what are your honest thoughts on the performance of BJ Ryan today?
MW: It’s a possibility, but I don’t think that’s what Tampa did last year. And I thought Ryan was awful today.
- CamGREAT JOB JASON FRASOR! BJ, you’re fired!
- Vito From HamiltonI’m probably one of a dozen posts here about this, but what is wrong with Ryan? Did he come back too early last year or what? He’s looked bad both times he’s pitched and he seems unsure on the mound.
MW: I don’t think Ryan’s struggles have anything to do with last year.
- isabella reyesMike, any post game Jays talk today?
MW: Nope.
- Vito From HamiltonMike
A loss of more than 5MPH in his velocity
+
An inability to throw strikes
Are the Jays hiding something, is it possible BJ is still suffering from Tommy John or has he just gotten worse
MW: The loss of velocity from 2006 to this year is two or three MPH. At his best as a Jay, Ryan threw 91.
- Tarun JosephMike, I unfortunately watched the game on SNO. Pat Tabler shared a stat I thought was interesting: Roy Halladay’s ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio was almost 2:1 thus emphasizing the need for infield defense (today it was 12:2 according to ESPN). Also yesterday (I think) on JaysTalk you considered the possibility putting in Johnny Mac and sacrificing the bat instead for the quality defense which I agreed with at the time. While watching the game I went looking for flaws in Scutaro’s defense and I saw a few (on the stolen base by Cabrera in the 3rd and the single by Peralta in the 4th both I thought Mac would have prevented but neither ended up costing runs). Because none of the missed balls lead to runs and because of Scutaro’s 3 walks and a RBI, I am glad Cito decided to leave him in instead of JMac. Scutaro has been playing much better and with BJ “closing” for the Jays we needed all the offense we could get. What do you think the Jays should do next time Halladay pitches? Obviously Scutaro can’t keep up this offensive pace (.435 AVG, 1.343 OPS)
MW: Obviously Scutaro can’t keep up even close to this offensive pace, and I do think that McDonald should be getting SOME work at some point (other than just being Kevin Millar’s designated pinch-runner). I have been very impressed with Scoot’s defense to this point, but I still think that McDonald has to get in, and the best time for him to do so is when Halladay is on the mound. That said, I’d wager that he’ll start tomorrow.
- JoshMike…In all seriousness, and not just going on today’s poor outing, is throwing the ball over the plate (or more accurately, not hitting the strike zone) getting in B.J’s head? Kind of similiar to ex-Pirate Steve Blass or more recently Rick Ankiel. I’m probably putting the cart before the horse, but it’s getting scary!!
MW: It’s not even close to that bad.
- chris m.MW: I remember the day that John Gibbons signed Wilkerson. Not the best idea.
Gibbons was the Manager and wanted to play him, Cito showed JP who was boss when he took over, Lind was up instantly and played every day and Wilkerson was pinned to the bench.
What Cito has done for this team is unbelievable, I have been saying for years, the problem with the Jays was the manager (Raptors too) NOT the players. Cito has a good shot to win Manager of the year this year if the Jays play solid ball for the full 162. So many things this year Cito has done Gibbons would not have which inlcudes keeping Overbay in to face tough lefties late in games, having Barajas hit the other night with bases loaded 1 out for the win, have Purcey battle through some tough innings without going to the bullpen. I LOVE IT! Confidence, consistency AND putting the best players on the field regardless of age, egos and friendships!
MW: It’s amazing how people think that John Gibbons was a puppet of J.P.’s, except in the case of Adam Lind. To say that the problem with the Jays from 2006-08 was the manager and not the players is simply ludicrous. Gibbons didn’t hit .180 with runners in scoring position last April and June.
- MateoKen – The thing that I could never fathom was every time Devo would lead off a game or an inning with a double, he would have Alomar try to bunt him over to third. What a waste of a great hitter’s at bat.
MW: And for the record, in 1992 and ‘93 combined, Alomar had 10 sacrifice bunts. Granted, that’s 10 too many, but it was hardly “every time”.
Ken – Not sure you got my point. It wasn’t how many sac bunts Alomar made, but how often Cito asked him to bunt that I was talking about. When a manager asks for a sac bunt several things can happen:
a) – a successful sac ensues
b) – an infield single
c) – a fielders’ choice
d) – a pop up
e) – bunt is taken off after two strikes
f) – batter misses the sign either deliberately or not
g) – batter mentally says “screw you” and hits away.
h) – batter bunts foul with two strikes and is out
i) – runner is caught stealing or picked off
j) – runner advances on a passed ball or wild pitch
k) – batter walks
You are not counting all the times that b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, and k happened. All you are looking at is the number of occasions when (a) happened.
And for the record Alomar had 16 sac bunts in 1991. I suspect Gillick told Cito to “smarten up” after that season. And the sac bunts decreased by 63% in 1992 and a further 50% in 1993. I suspect that 1991 is the year that really sticks in my mind, when Alomar was giving up a lot of at bats. I just remember Cito doing it, not the exact season.
MW: Unfortunately, there’s no way to go back and check how often Alomar was sent up to bunt but didn’t execute successfully, or showed bunt but then didn’t. Regardless, that was still a major exaggeration on your part.
- KenMW,
Now that BJ Ryan looks like he needs serious remedial work, I would have said the logical alternative was League -until I say him pitch last night. Where in your opinion do we go from here in terms of closing out ballgames, Scott Downs?
MW: Probably.
- GeorgeDear Mike,
During the middle innings of todays game Jerry mentioned the name of a book that Roy reads a few times per year. I missed both the name of the book and author. I wonder if you could pass that along for me. Many thanks, best regards.
Bob
MW: I can’t recall the name of the book off the top of my head, I’ll try to find out for you.
- BobHi, Mike:
Watching the game today, and I’m really wondering about the scoring on the run that Kevin Millar scored. How can that not be an error on Shoppach? Millar was “meatcake” (to use your term), the throw was fine, Shoppach had it in his glove, and then “lost it” (maybe with a bit of help from Millar, but…) A big-league catcher is supposed to make that play!
That is one Earned Run with which Lee definitely should not have been saddled (and one RBI that Hill should not have on his record).
What say you?
MW: It’s a valid argument. Millar was, in fact, meatcake on that play, but his slide knocked the ball loose. I think when that happens you won’t often see an error scored.
- NormMike….I’m always interested in hearing differnt points of view and Cito had one in Saturday’s sports section..He was saying that a Lee/Halladay match-up is great for the fans, but he figures Wedge and he knows himself personally, would rather they not face each other. What’s your spin on that reasoning?
MW: I think he’s saying they’d rather have their ace pitch in a far more favourable pitching match-up, but I think that’s a bit short-sighted.
- chris m.Hi Mike,
Great to have the Jays in 1st place in the AL East and with the 2nd best record in baseball. Shame it isn’t the final week of the season!
I know it’s early yet and we’ve started with a bang that won’t last 156 more games but it seems pretty clear that this team will give us some exciting baseball this year… if not exactly playoff hopes.
2 questions -
1) At what point do the Jays have to do something about BJ Ryan (when does enough become enough)? And if that point comes and his poor performance doesn’t involve anything injury related, what do you think most likely happens?
2) For reasons of being up-to-date (and because it’s getting worn out), I’m retiring my ’06 Glaus shirt. I need a replacement and I’m torn between Hill (who I’m so thrilled to see back, healthy and productive) and Halladay (whose awesomeness I want to appreciate as much as possible in case these persistent trade rumours prove true). I can’t decide. Please help!
Thanks, take care and Happy Passover.
MW: Thanks. 1 – Soon, and what’s most likely to happen is that Ryan moves into a less-significant role in the bullpen until he figures things out. 2 – As much as I love Aaron Hill, you absolutely can’t go wrong with Halladay.
- Siguy“For this series, it seems to me like the Indians should have the edge for the following reasons:
1) Law of averages:”
There’s no such thing as a “law of averages”. It’s also one of the biggest “gamblers’ fallacies”, especially for inexperienced gamblers”.
You flip a coin and get five heads. The odds of a head on flip number six are still 50/50. What happened on previous flips has no influence whatsoever on future events.
MW: You do realize, of course, that any numbers amassed over a four-game period mean nothing.
Well they have about the same significance as two years in the life of someone who lives to be eighty. And in the case of Lind, Snider, Scutaro, Purcey, & Romero it’s more significant than that because of the confidence factor that will help them down the road when they begin to struggle. It’s always nice to have a period of success in your past to fall back on. And they are working on obtaining that. This season is after all a dress rehearsal and try-out camp for the 2010.
“Just a completely random question here: On average, how many more runs per game do you think the home team scores than the road team does? My friend says it’s like 2.0 runs but I said, “no way” and think it’s more like 0.5. Thanks!”
MW: Wow, that is completely random. I doubt it’s as small as 0.5, but it could be. It’s definitely something we could probably look up, though.
From analyzing the past five regular seasons at Baseball Reference and this very useful site:
http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search/?start_year=1977&end_year=2006&team=V&inning=1&outs=0&expectancybases=0&scorediff=0
The home team has won 54.0% of games and scored 5.08 runs per game.
The road team has won 46.0% of games and scored 4.72 runs per game.
The difference in runs scored is of coursed mollified by the fact that the home team often only comes to bat eight times (close to 50% of the time).
MW: There may be no law of averages, and you’re obviously absolutely right about the coin-flip thing, but it’s equally true that, as Joe Torre is fond of saying, “water finds its level” which is to say that things tend to even out. If you flip a coin 1,000 times you’re going to wind up close to 500-500 but there will be runs in there when you hit head six or seven times in a row and vice-versa. As for the four games thing, I’ll give you that it’s better for a young player to start on a tear so that there are still numbers to fall back on when you hit the slump, and you’re not spending the first two months of the season trying to get off the interstate.
- KenRe: Comment/Question 33:
In 2004 the run differential was 0.3 and for 2005 it was 0.42. Home teams won 53.5% of the time in 2004 and 53.7% in 2005. Both are close to their Pythagorean expectations.
- Alan the stat geek