4:00 PM Eastern
Well, at the very least, it means there weren’t any spring rainouts, which is a good thing when you’re trying to schedule starting pitchers towards a specific date, which is the goal of Spring Training for every team (that, and staying healthy).
You’ll note that when you look at spring standings, the Blue Jays will be listed as 13-17 for the spring. There are two reasons for that: 1 – there’s no place to list ties in baseball standings, which is as it should be, and B – the games the Jays played against Team Canada (a loss) and Team U.S.A. (a win) prior to the World Baseball Classic don’t count in Grapefruit League standings, because they’re considered exhibition games. This, to me, could not be more ridiculous, and therefore I ignore it. You don’t count exhibition games in exhibition standings because, why, they were “exhibitionnier” than the other games that don’t count either? Mind-bottling, I tells you.
Anyway, after 35 spring games and 14 spring wins I can tell you with unmeasurable confidence that the Blue Jays are now 0-0, tied for first through fifth in the AL East with Boston, Baltimore, New York and Tampa Bay. That’s how much spring training means.
There was only one major injury all spring, which is great news for the Jays, and it wasn’t even that major. By “major” I mean a player who would have started the season with the major-league team won’t because he got hurt, and that player is Casey Janssen. Fret not, though, Janssen should be back in the bigs by mid-May, at the latest.
The way the team looks breaking camp, with the exception of the 4th starter, is the way the Jays had planned the team to look going into camp. From the time I got down there this spring, I was told “Kevin Millar hit 20 homers last year”, “Joe Inglett has options” and “Scott Richmond keeps us in games”. The dies (dice?) were cast for them early, so long as everyone stayed healthy. You knew Michael Barrett was going to win the back-up catcher’s job, even though Raul Chavez made a strong case, because real decisions aren’t made based on five weeks of exhibition games, they’re made based on histories and track records. Which is the same reason that Jason Lane didn’t make the team, despite being the Jays’ King of Spring. Brett Cecil was never going to make the team because the Jays can better control his innings at AAA, and maybe control his service time, as well. I realize they CAN control his service time wherever he pitches, but service time may have had more than a little to do with his demotion. I think it has way more to do with his innings, though.
Eyes were opened by players like Brad Mills and Brad Emaus, both of whom really put themselves on the Jays’ radar this spring. As little as the outcome of spring games means, and it couldn’t mean less, the opportunity for young, unknown up-and-comers can’t be quantified. They get the chance to perform in front of the major-league coaching staff, to pick the brains of big-league coaches and players, and to show everyone in the front office what they can do. That, as much as getting pitchers stretched out, is what Spring Training is all about.
The season begins Monday night with Roy Halladay taking on the Tigers and Justin Verlander, and it should be a great night – a sellout crowd, a well-pitched game and what used to be a fantastic rivalry. A balanced schedule remains my hope for MLB, and that would certainly help renew the old Jays rivalries like those with the Tigers, Royals and A’s while still keeping alive those with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
Expectations are low for the Jays this season, but they were much higher the last time these two teams met on Opening Day at the Dome. Five years and one day prior to this year’s lid-lifter, the Jays and Tigers went at it with the Jays coming off a surprise 86-win season and the Tigers coming off a 119-loss nightmare. Detroit smacked Halladay around to the tune of a 7-0 beatdown – Jason Johnson went six shutout innings for the win – the Tigers wound up sweeping the series and the Jays eventually went into a death spiral that saw them finish last in the East with a 67-94 mark, their worst year since 1981.
A lot of people seem to think the Jays are going to have a similar year this year, and I think they’re really looking through whatever-the-opposite-of-rose-is coloured glasses. For some reason, it’s enjoyable for some to want to be ahead of the “I told you so” curve – but only in a negative sense. They make dire predictions, talk about how much everyone sucks and deserves to be fired, and say they’ll likely be tuning out on this Jays season before the first week is up. If they’re right, they get to tell everyone they always knew it, and if they’re wrong, they’re pleasantly surprised (although they probably wind up still saying they knew it all along). I guess it’s a good defense mechanism to insulate yourself against disappointment, but it must just suck all the enjoyment out of everything. Sports are supposed to be fun – they’re kids games, remember – and passion, excitement and frustration are all part of it. But the excitement has to be there, too, and not just excitement about them losing because “see, I told you J.P. was an idiot.”
I certainly don’t want to have the same kind of pointlessly negative comments in this space that I saw last year, and they’re starting to creep back as we get closer to Opening Day. If you want to make a rational negative point, be my guest, if you want to criticize with some thought behind it, fine by me. Just putting it out there. I love a good debate, but most of the people who consistently post negative comments here aren’t looking for a debate, they’re looking for a shout-fest.
Before I wrap up this final pre-season post, some people have been asking me for my predictions this season, and I want to answer by saying I’m not going to make team-by-team, division-by-division predictions, because they’d be guaranteed to be wrong. Just like every other pundit’s predictions. No one knows what’s going to happen this year, or any year.
I’ll say this, though. I think the Reds, Braves and Giants are going to be a lot better than most people believe they will be this season, and I expect the Brewers to finish with a losing record.
In the American League, I think the Rays will have a precipitous fall-off and that the A.L. East will be won in relatively easy fashion by the Red Sox. I expect both CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to spend time on the disabled list this year. I don’t think the Angels are nearly as good as they were last year, but there’s no other good team in the A.L. West right now, so they could win by acclimation, unless the A’s sneak up and steal the division from them.
As for the Blue Jays, anyone who has read or listened to me knows this, but I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as most people seem to think they’re going to be. The starting pitching is significantly worse, but by the middle of June, at the latest, Janssen and Cecil will be in there and the starting rotation will be almost as good as it was for a lot of last season. The bullpen has been the best in baseball two years running, and even though Jesse Carlson will probably slip back and B.J. Ryan is scuffling, it’s still a very good group, and this may well finally be the year that Brandon League becomes the guy we have thought he could be for the last three or four years. The offense is considerably better, with at-bats that last year went to Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, Matt Stairs, Shannon Stewart, Frank Thomas, David Eckstein and, yes, Joe Inglett now going to Travis Snider, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Jose Bautista and Millar give the Jays better options against left-handed starters than last year (remember when Eckstein would DH?). If Scott Rolen stays healthy, that’s a big boost, and a return to form by Lyle Overbay would be icing on the cake.
I see the Jays as an 82-85 win team that is likelier to win 90 than to lose 90, but not very likely to do either. In my one prediction guaranteed to be wrong, I believe the Jays will finish third in the A.L. East this season.
And just in case you missed it, here’s the JaysTalk from Friday night’s win over the Fish.
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See you Opening Day! Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome.
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I think your on with your prediction of the Rays faltering, its not clear to me who will come out on top between the Yankees and the Red Sox however I think the Sox have the right clubhouse to hang tight for the long run.
Part of being a long term Jays fan is having an endearment for the underdog, and the Blue Jays are positioned to take on that role against quite a few opponents this year.
I am really hopeful that Overbay, Rios, Lind can rebound and have the seasons we expect from them and if they along with others play upto their potential and we get a few surprises and not too many flops the Jays could reach 90 wins, if that happens I would be thrilled.
Halladay vs Burnett is my world series this year, I hope it happens.
MW: I’m really looking forward to that pitching match-up, as well – and the Jays and Yankees play 18 times this season, so there’s a good chance. The only thing is, will Burnett be on the active roster by then?
- J.RHey Mike
Love your show and the blog, but for the life of me i can’t understand how someone with your knowledge of the game can possibly think the Jays will win between 81 and 84 games. The only thing i can come up with is that you have to deal with JP and the rest of the underachievers on a daily basis so you don’t want them to label you as a pessimist.
Last year the Jays strength was tremendous pitching and defense, and by September 1st they were 14.5 games out of first place. The offense was a complete joke. This year, after you get past Halladay, the Jays have the worst rotation in baseball 2 through 5. The odd time the club carries a lead into the late innings they have to rely on BJ Ryan to close the door. Ryan was great a few years ago, but as of this moment he looks like he is tossing pies at the hitters. The club did nothing in the off-season to address the “offense”. It all adds up to a battle for last place with Baltimore, with the Jays winning around 70-73 games this year.
Snider and Lind should be fun to watch this year. I imagine those two will be the main run producers within a few years, and i always love watching the prospects develop. I am also interested to see how Cecil performs was he replaces Romero or Richmond sometime in May. For all the criticism i have sent JP’s way over the last few years regarding his draft record, Snider, Lind and Cecil were nice selections, perhaps he is improving at the draft table.
I will still support the team because i refuse to be a bandwagon jumper and i love the great game of baseball. i’ll be there thursday to watch one of the best pitching prospects in baseball take the hill for the first time in the Majors. I speaking of Porcello or course, not Romero.
Looking forward to 2010….
MW: Why? It’ll still be the same joke offense, and Ryan will still be the closer.
- rickHi Mike,
I particularly likes your comments in the second to last paragraph about the offense. There were many wasted at bats that went to guys like Wilkerson, mench, Thomas, Stewart as you mentioned. This year, there will be far more productive at bats coming from guys like Millar, Snider, Lind, Bautista and Hill. Great point. Given the improved bench, I don’t see how the offece couldn’t be much improved. Even if Overbay doesn’t rebound and Rolen is oft-injured, there is still improved hitting.
Also, you mentioned that you see Burnett and Sabathia on the DL this season? You know, I got that feeling whebn the Yanks went nuts with their huge signings this off season. On paper, one would say that nobody will touch their 5 man starting rotation and combine that with their offence and it would appear that they will walk away with it. However, injuries always have a way of ruining plans and it has already started with A-Rod. Injuries are also a possibility for the aging Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui and even Derek Jeter. Also, how will Texeira handle the pressures of New York? He is always such a slow starter so it could get interesting. I would have to agree that the Red Sox will win the division.
- IanMike,
First off, I remember reading an article by one of those guys who covers the minor league system for fun. And they made a comment about how a lot of the things said about the prospects on the net are read by the players, and do hurt them mentally/emotionally. I think the comment was made specifically about Ricky.. It makes me cheer harder for a guy like Ricky (to spite cheering for a guy who got paid more in one day than I will make in 15 years)…
Secondly, I listened to the broadcast on Friday, and I heard Jerry or Alan talk about how the Royals could be the next Rays… I have heard this from others as well… Are you with me on how this notion is ridiculous? I mean the Royals are a candidate to win more games than last year, but to say they have a shot at winning 95 games is a bit much…
MW: It’s not ridiculous. I don’t think that they meant literally that the Royals will do exactly what the Rays did last year. They meant that the team that could come out of nowhere to win a division/get into the playoffs, like the Rays did last year, is the Royals this year. They’re not very likely to win 95 games, but they’re certainly the sexy pick to surprise a lot of people.
- Stevie H.Hi Mike
Why do you think JP has been so quit about the roster this spring? In past springs we have heard a lot more from him on many different topics (Janssen vs. Listch 2008). Do you think it has something to do with Cito, or it is just because of the overall lack of hype that has surrounded the Jays all off season? I for one enjoy hearing JP’s two cents.
MW: I think it has to do with both those things.
- SteveHey Mike, I spoke to you a while back…last year to be exact about a slo-pitch tournament in Windsor. I dont want to get in much detail on the blog so can you drop me an email maybe just saying a blurb and I will write you with what it is I wish to discuss with you. Thank you very much. jamieporto@gmail.com
- JamieMW – I think the Rays will have a precipitous fall-off.
This is your one prediction I really don’t get at all. Your prediction of the Jays winning 82 to 85 games, which I have seen nowhere else, is even a better bet than this one.
I guess you’re still on the “amazing luck in 2008″ theory and figure they are due for a drop. I might buy a small drop, but a precipitous fall-off is really not even a realistic possibility. If you stick with this prediction all year it will simply be a repeat of your Tigers in 06 and Rays in 08 nonsense.
This team is “very good”. And they will be adding Pat Burrell, David Price, & Kapler in 2009. A lot of fans in New York and Boston are looking at each other as the team they have to beat. Neither team is very confident of beating out the Rays.
Let’s look at the Rays:
Shields:
2007 – 215 IP, 3.85 ERA
2008 – 215 IP, 3.56 ERA
Kazmir
ERA(s) for the past three seasons – 3.24, 3.48, 3.49
Garza
2008 – 185 IP, 3.70 ERA
Sonnanstine –
2008 – 193 IP, 4.38 ERA
ERA for 2006 and 2007 at AA & AAA – 2.67 & 2.66
Price –
2008 – 14 IP – 1.93
minor league ERA – 1.89
Navarro
.756 OPS at age 24
Pena
2007 – 1.038 OPS
2008 – .871 OPS
Iwamura –
2007 – 770 OPS
2008 – 729 OPS
Bartlett – best defensive shortstop in AL
Zobrist – .844 OPS in 2008
Longoria – .874 OPS in 2008 at age 22
BJ Upton –
2007 – .884 OPS at age 22
2008 – .784 OPS
Crawford –
2006 – .830 OPS
2007 – .821 OPS
2008 – injured
2009 – healthy
Kapler – 2008, .838 OPS
Gross – 2008 – .767 OPS
Burrell –
2007 – .902 OPS
2008 – .874 OPS
Precipitous fall-off eh ?? SIGH.
MW: I’m not sure what you’re trying to show me here. Their 2008 numbers? Yes, they had a great year in 2008. That their 2008 numbers were worse than their 2007 numbers? In a couple of cases, yes, but certainly not most. And why show me David Price’s ERA over 14 big-league innings and pretend it means something? I also notice that you didn’t mention anything about Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell or Dan Wheeler. And adding Kapler? Cool – decent bench guy/4th outfielder. Awesome. I’d also like to know who on the Yankees and Red Sox told you that they’re not confident of beating out the Rays.
- KenWell you picked Longoria as the rookie of the year in 2008..Good call..However, your sheer brilliance ended when you picked Gibbons for manager of the year..The prediction business either makes you look “more smart” or “less stupid” ..
I was a bit shocked when they picked Romero for the 4th spot..He hasn’t been overwhelming at the minor league level but not bad..16-22 with an era of 4.33 and unimpressive WHIP but 324 SO in 415 IP..His consistency looks questionable but who isn’t at his age..
I remain baffled at the fact the Jays didn’t sign someone to fill in at least one spot in their rotation..You just can’t get away with basically 3 rookies in your starting rotation in the AL East..Even if Janssen gets a spot..He is coming off a major injury and only 2 seasons in MLB..
In 2008, they finished with 86 wins in the toughest division in baseball..They had Halladay, Burnett, Mcgowan, Litch and Marcum in their rotation..They lead the league in ERA and still only won 86 times..
No Burnett, Mcgowan, or Marcum and you honestly believe they only loose a few more games this year then last?..
Even if they do hit better this season..The Jays would have to hit extraordinarily well this season to win 81-85 games..I would love to see them win 100 games but I just don’t see it..70-75 wins tops..
MW: Ummm, I don’t see them winning 100 games, either.
- Ray BEveryone seems to be assuming the wild card will come out of the AL East, but isn’t that a little hasty? I honestly believe that the East has the potential to have the four best teams in the AL and yet only one of them win 90 games depending on injuries and because they all have to play each other so much. Meanwhile I could see all 5 AL Central teams winning 75-85 games because they’re all so mediocre and the wild card coming out of the West, pretty much by default.
MW: The AL East had the four best teams in the league last year, and two of them won 90 games and made the playoffs. I don’t think the division has the four best teams in the league again this year, though, and probably not the top three.
- ColinThis year was the first time I followed spring training closely, and I found it to be very interesting. I just wish more games had been on the radio, including today’s
Since I’m in a know-it-all mood (I’m a history student, starting my MA in the fall, it’s a danger of the profession) Rose coloured glasses while being a 60s hippyish thing, in fact started about a hundred years earlier, when tourists to Scotland would carry frames with rose gauze fabric, through which they would see the landscape. It was thought the rose gauze made the landscape more romantic. Crazy Victorians.
I’m glad you and the team will be back full time starting Monday. I look forward this season to seeing the young talents the Jays will put on the field.
- Sam McLeanMike, I’ve seen you talk about the Yankees and the effect that injuries and age may have to the top of their rotation and their hitting line-up.
What do you think about the Red Sox though. There must be question marks over Drew, Lowell, and Ortiz.
Do you think time on the D.L. for these three could bring them back to the pack in the race for the A.L. East?
MW: It’s certainly possible, especially with Lowell’s hip being a nagging issue as well as Ortiz’ wrist.
- PatM-Dub,
Really good entry.
Seems like you’re ramping up too.
“exhibitionnier” = hilarious.
“Dye is cast” = manufacturing reference
Anyways,
Im with you this year on staying positive.
If i dont have anything nice to say about the jays, I’ll probably just say something nice about something another team/player did that night – I hope you’re cool with that.
I will try to keep the Billingsley thing under control too.
If I ever see Fahey in the starting line-up i might slip, though.
LETS GO BLUEJAYS!!
My whole gang booked monday off work months ago, we’ll be waiting at the gates!
Oh ya,
you think the jays get 500ABs out of rolen?
Itd be nice to see him bounce back a bit, especially since it seems reality has kicked in on Troy Glaus’ shoulder.
MW: I think 500 at-bats is probably a stretch, given the past few years, but the Jays would love to see it.
- slobberfaceMike,
As an avid listener to XM radio’s Home Plate, I can tell you that most in the baseball world do not even consider us in the discussion for the AL East. I am not ready to write off this team yet, and I believe (foolishly?) that we can be the Rays of 09. Yes our starting pitching is young and mostly unproven, but how soon we forget that Marcum and McGowan were once questionable young starters that nobody was sure of.
Of note, both Kevin Kennedy and Jeff Joyce of “Inside Pitch” on XM picked Halladay to win the Cy Young, and Joyce picked Snider as his rookie of the year.
So it seems not everyone thinks we suck.
Thanks Mike.
PS – do you think the Yankees are lacking as much depth as I do?
MW: I think the Yankees have pretty good depth on the mound, which is kind of important, but Cody Ransom is their starting third baseman right now, so yes.
- DarrenLast year this blog got me excited about baseball (and the Jays) for the first time in awhile. Can’t wait for this year and don’t let the haters get you down. There’s a lot more people like me out there who just enjoy the game and the blog for what they are. Fun in the summer!
MW: Thanks!
- SeanMike….I couldn’t agree with you more about the insignificance of the spring training record. Do you remember the ’84 Tigers? A spring training record of 8-24 and no closer until the last week of camp when they pick up some journeyman reliever from the Phillies with a pretty good screwball, named Willie Hernandez. Sparky Anderson makes him the closer and as they say, the rest is history.
- chris m.Hey Mike, I like how theres no ties in baseball. But I especially like how theres no overtime or extra-inning losses!
MW: Yeah, no separate categrory for that. To follow the NHL’s lead there would just be stupid.
- ScottHey Mike. If it makes you feel any better, Andy Frost on am640 also has to deal with negative Leaf fans on a regular basis! I think he has much less freedom than you guys at the fan over how he can respond to annoyed callers because he doesn’t put as many callers in there place as I’ve heard on the fan. Also he gets asked 9 callers out of 10 ike you, how hes doing today and awnsers every time like it’s the first time hes been asked all day.
MW: I’m a huge fan of Andy Frost’s. The man is a rock’n'roll legend in Toronto.
- Matt from BCHey Mike,
I couldnt agree more – spring training means nothing, its almost like a month-long workout, a chance for the players to stretch their muscles and do some preparation work. However, there is also the tiny matter of who makes the roster for April. That, in my opinion, is the better reason to even have spring training. I think the Jays offense hits average , maybe .270, pitching is in the top 10, but probably not tops, and defense is good as usual. Mike, call me crazy for believing this but … I think the Jays, if they can hit, have a decent shot at 92 wins this year? Or maybe its just wishful thinking. Anyway, I want to ask, over the past few years, it has taken around 95 wins to make the playoffs as a wildcard in the AL? Does it get any easier this year? What about the NL? Any division previews?
MW: It would take an enormous amount of things going right for the Blue Jays to be a playoff team this year. What do you mean by the matter of who makes the roster? Spring training doesn’t really have all that much bearing on who actually makes the team.
- RogerHey Mike,
If the Jays can finally put together an offensive display to match the pitching they’ve been getting for the last couple of years, we’ll be in good shape.
I think Millar’s going to keep everybody loose in the clubhouse and united on the field.
From Citos comments in regard to Roger Clemens, it was clear that Cito values putting the team first and the guys pulling for each other.
It’s going to be a exciting year.
- DJJAYHi Mike,
I think the negativity surrounding the Jays this season comes mainly from the unfortunate mix of bad luck in the previous season, heavy scrutiny on Ricciardi magnified by his lack of activity, and the media`s jumping all over minor things like Gaston`s rebuilding year comment. In any case, I think it`s a good year for a betting man (which I am not) to take the over on the Jays` win total this year (I believe Vegas has it at 79.5)
Question for you: what do you think are Romero`s chances of ever returning to the majors should he have major struggles in the first month?
- Pierre from Blois
MW: Very, very good. And I expect him to struggle early.
- PierreNice post, Mike.
I like your predictions – it will be an enjoyable season should it work out that way for the Jays.
What do you think the odds are re a balanced schedule? What’s the argument against it – travel?
Let’s go Blue Jays!
MW: The argument against it appears to be the importance of divisional rivalries. I would love to see it happen, but I don’t see it coming anytime soon.
- PatrickRed Sox first in the east? Don’t see it this year. No Manny, Ortiz is not the same player he was, Pedroia will fall from grace, and the jays proved last year that even otherworldly pitching can’t save you.
My Prediction: Francona will finally go this year.
MW: We shall see.
- HowardI am so glad baseball is starting videogame baseball can only scratch that itch for so long.
I watched the game on Saturday because i wanted to see Justin Jackson play short and see Romero pitch a little. From it I have a couple quick questions Mike.
Lind looked a little more comfortable in Left, I asked you last season if Snider or Lind was better defensivley and you said Snider, still sticking with that or has Lind improved a bit?
Second JJ looks MLB ready on the defensive side but your right he needs more work on his bat. Do you see him
being a potential leadoff guy if he can get is OBP up or he is a back of the lineup guy?
Lastly I was looking on youtube for highlights of Stiebs no hitter and turns out the whole game is available for purchase on iTunes for $1.99 is it worth a purchase considering I’ve never seen it?
MW: For two bucks? Absolutely. Jackson (I assume JJ is Justin Jackson) needs work on his bat – he takes walks, despite the ton of strikeouts, but he needs a LOT of work if he’s going to become a big-league lead-off man. Lind has improved defensively, but Snider is still better.
- SmityI am not sure if its ok to post a link here so I won’t, but I came across Baseball Mogul 2010′s prediction for the season. Basically they simulated the season 10,000 times and the end result was the Blue Jays finished last in the division with a 75-85 record. 0.8% chance to win the division.
Of note is they project that it will only take 91 wins to come out on top, maybe due to the ferocity of competition.
MW: Interesting. What did they predict last season?
- J.RCan’t wait for Monday night, Mike! Here’s to another great season from Alan, Jerry and yourself!
My prediction: Jays finish the year 82 – 80
Let’s go Jays!!
- Luke DeWittMike
- Richard from ARI am an eternal optimist and as such, I predict the Jays will finish better than most predict at at least third place. I also predict Doc will get the Cy Young at 21/7 ERA 2.56
Aint Pre_season great
Do you honestly believe the Jays are finishing ahead of the Rays this year? The Rays have much better young talent and they went to the world series last year. I dont know how you can say that without having rose colured glasses.
MW: Yes, I honestly believe it.
- aviMike
I totally agree with your views on the 09 Jays.This club just needs to play up to their potential to be good.I don’t see a playoff berth,however I think this team will certainly make it interesting.Allowing the kids to get their feet wet for a whole season will be exciting to watch.I don’t share the same gloom and doom about the rotation.There will be some days where they will be inconsistant but if Litsch and Purcey keep progressing and with the bullpen backing them up I think they will be fine.The offence should only improve with a healthy season from Wells,Rolen and Hill.That would keep pressure off of Snider and Lind and allow them to succeed.
Taking my son to the May 29 game against the Bosox.We’re both looking forward to it but hoping for different results.The kid hit his head a few years ago and became a Red Sox fan..lol.
MW: You have to do something about that – it’s your responsibility as a father.
- TerryHi Mike,
I think your 09 predictions look pretty good.
Instead of predicting the 09 season, I think I’ll take a stab at predicting the Jays first series. I’ll say that it’ll be a 3-1 series victory for the Jays. Why?
1) The Jays are at home and were 47-34 at home last year, whereas the Tigers were 34-47. Statistically, that has to count for something.
2) Halladay pitches in one of those 4 games.
3) It’s early in the season and nobody will be throwing 120 pitches (I don’t think). This means we might be seeing the bullpens earlier in the game. The Jays bullpen is far superior to the Tigers bullpen. Rodney is the Tigers’ closer.
4) The Tigers are putting 4 RHP’s out there. The Jays stunk vs. LHP’s last year. But more importantly, it means we’ll see more of Lind and Snider and less of Millar and Bautista.
5) The Tigers are keeping Galarraga for their home opener, which means the Jays won’t face him.
6) Rolen: I just have a feeling that Rolen will keep rolling and will be big in this series.
7) Pitching matchup breakdowns:
Though I’m hearing Verlander is looking good, I think you have to give the edge to Halladay. Edwin Jackson and Zach Miner are both reasonably good pitchers, as are Purcey and Litsch. I see a split there. Romero and Porcello are both going to have their MLB debut. Here’s where I’m going to go out on a limb and say Romero will win his first game. It’s a home game for Romero, and Porcello is only 20, whereas Romero has few more years experience.
What could go wrong?
- RMLots of things. But what concerns me the most is:
1) The offense not showing up, like early last season.
2) Big games from Ordonez and Cabrera – those guys can put up runs in a hurry
3) Blown saves by BJ. Let’s cross our fingers on that one!
Go Jays!
Hi Mike
I realize it is small sample size, but the Jays’ rotation for about 1/4 of last season was (in no particular order):
Doc, Litsch, Purcey, Richmond and Burnett. Moreover, there bullpen has not changed, they are healthier and their bench is stronger. So, perhaps the media/experts are being a little too cynical and harsh when evaluating the 2009 edition of the Jays?
On another note, is Casey Janssen pitching off a mound yet? When is he scheduled to throw in a game?
Thanks,
MW: Richmond only had five starts, so he wasn’t in there for nearly a quarter of the season. Janssen is scheduled to throw a simulated game on April 17th, I think. The Jays think he’ll definitely be ready by mid-May.
- DavidSince you’re such a stickler Mike, it is “acclamation” — with “claim” being the root, not “acclimation,” which is in the “clime” family, along the same lines as other weather-temperature kind of words, like climate, climatize, acclimatize, etc.
I will forgive you because until Doc throws that first pitch tomorrow night, it’s still exhibition.
MW: Why thank you.
- MattI tell you there are literally a hundred people I’d like to read that paragraph about the whole “I told you so” stuff to. I don’t want to hear about what they think about JP, I don’t want to hear about how doomed the franchise is. We’ve had 5 months to bicker about that stuff. It’s time to sit back with a cold one and some peanuts and enjoy watching the best in the world play the game we love. Here’s to another great year in the booth from Jerry, Alan and yourself!
- karimMike,
Three questions about John McDonald.
How often do you think he will start at SS? I’m thinking maybe 40 games – hoping for more because what fun watching Rolen-McDonald-Hill together on defense. Hurts the offense – but there’s more to enjoying a game than lots of offense and wins.
What’s the likely batting order when he does start? Maybe Overbay moves to leadoff?
Do you think Cito might regularly put him in late in games (7th or 8th inning)) that are close? Seems to me that a team with likely the best defensive shortstop in the game should have him in when defense matters most.
MW: I think 40 games is about right, unless the Jays hit enough to support his bat, in which case he’ll play more often. When he starts, Hill would probably move to leadoff, I don’t think we’ll ever see Lyle up there. I’m hopeful that McDonald will get regular work late in close games.
- Steve in HHHey Mike, it feels like yesterday since the Bluejays went on that 10 game streak giving us some flashes of greatness. They did this with young pitching and young hitting. I think the lineup is in better shape then last year. I love having Snider and Lind in there year round and having big bats such as wells, rios, overbay (I hope), and Rolen (If he stays healthy) We have great depth with Scutaro, Inglett, and Macdonald and Hill all over 2 positions. Don’t forget, all of our hitting boosted last year when Cito arrived and he changed their approach which should carry into this year. I was hoping we’d get Matt Clement in our rotation, and I think we will eventually. Halladay, we know is good. Litsch is one of the best control pitchers I’ve seen. The bottom 3 will make or break the outcome of this team. I think this first month will be important to start off winning so we don’t have to worry about being 7 games out in June. Regardless of playoffs, I cannot wait for opening night. It’s great that baseball is back!
MW: Sounds good, except for the part about Clement.
- Warrenhey mike;
Agree with the pridiction that the jays will win at least 85 games but I tend to think the total wins will be 91- based on your assumption that the pitching isn’t as porous as people think and with jassen hopefully back soon this should bolster the rotation, and invariably the hitting should come around. thx for the great blog mike and go jays go.
MW: Thanks, but I didn’t say the Jays would win at least 85 games.
- robert.sWell-said Mike. I’m continually irritated by such negative comments I read on this blog and the MLB blog by fellow Jays fans. Take a look at the posts on the Jays official website…embarrassing. Many sports fans in Toronto care only to point out shortcomings, second guess JP, and right to this team off well before opening day. The truth is…
-The Jays under JP have been an above average team with solid pitching and defence.
-Jason Lane is…well…Jason Lane. I like the idea that he’s in Las Vegas ready to fill in case of injury. FYI he’s a career .241 hitter and has done very little in the last 3 years at the Major league level…look up his stats people, they’re not pretty.
-If Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios put up the numbers there capable of, it may cancel out the weaker rotation and keep them in games they would of been well out of the last couple of years.
-Firing a GM does not mean this team gets better, at least not for a while. So why do people waste there time posting comments day after day calling for his head on a platter. It just doesn’t make sense.
My question for you Mike is about Matt Clement. How did he look when you saw him and why have you not mentioned him being a fill in if one of these kids doesn’t work out. If this team is playing well and has a chance, wouldn’t Clement be a better option than Cecil?
MW: I’m sorry I didn’t get to these comments earlier – Clement retired yesterday.
- Micke LaurMi Mike,
Did Jeremy Accardo make the trip to Toronto? If so, will he close until BJ gets his arm up to snuff?
MW: No, he didn’t.
- BrentWhere would you hit Snider ? I like 2 or 3 slot
MW: I see him eventually as a three-hitter, but I think he’ll settle into the 5th spot at some point this season.
- Chas CalzHey MiKE
To all those that say the Jays are going to fail miserably this year because of their starting roatation let me remind you of 2006 when the pitching was brutal but the offense was amazing and they went 87-75. In 06 Doc had 16 wins Lilly had 15 Burnett 10 Janssen 6 and Chacin 9. Roughly estimating I see the roatation now putting numbers equivalent to that if not better. We will probably se Doc throw 18-20 wins Litsch who had 13 last year could very well throw 14-15 Purcey 8 Romero and Cecil could probably get 5 or 6 each Richmond 6-7 and when Janssen gets back he could throw 8 pver the remainder of his season. If all these guys do this and we see Rios Wells Overbay Rolen Lind and Snider step up then the Jays could very well walk away with 80-85 wins.
MW: The pitching wasn’t brutal in 2006, the team had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. It’s tough to project wins for pitchers, they have such little control over that.
- JamesDo you think the actor who played Maris in 61* looked like AJ Burnett?
MW: No.
- ProkopecHi Mike,
I expect you will disagree, but I have to say this anyway . . .
I’m disappointed in the Jay’s approach to the upcoming season. By not making any effort to strengthen the roster, as far as I’m concerned they have shortchanged their fans. If the Jays were selling cars, they’d be saying,”This year’s model is mediocre. Don’t expect much, but next year’s model is going to be a lot better.”
As a fan, I want to be excited about the new season. I want to have some hope of watching a competitive, entertaining team. But the odds of that happening this year look pretty long.
Don’t the Rogers corporate bean counters realize that you have to spend a bit of money to make money in pro sports? $85 million isn’t chump change, but it’s not enough to play in the AL East.
MW: It’s twice what the Rays spent last year, and they won the AL East. You can’t have a contender every year, it just doesn’t work that way, and this appears to have been the right time for the Jays to throttle down on the off-season spending – if it’s only for one year.
- Ken in KingstonMichael. Now that we’re almost 24 hours from the first pitch at the Rogers Centre, it’s comforting to know we’ll be indoors tomorrow considering the forecast for Southern Ontario, which you may or may not have heard. On that same note, opening day games are scheduled the next 2 days for Boston, Phialdelphia, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago, and St.Louis. When is MLB is going to do the smart thing and schedule their all their openers for domes and the southern U.S? It just makees no sense. Look at the PGA Tour, their early-season tournaments are in Hawaii, California, and Florida.
Anyway, I’m glad we’re under the roof tomorrow. Enjoy opening night Mike.
Peter, St.Catharines
MW: It’s ridiculous that, for example, the Rays and Red Sox are playing in the first series of the year, yet it’s being played in Boston. That Seattle and Minnesota, two dome teams, are playing each other.
- PeterHey Mike,
My question has nothing to do with the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays, but rather the 1989 Blue Jays. As a long time Blue Jays fan, I’m sure you remember the documentary of sorts that was made about the ’89 team, entitled “Sky High”.? Do you know if somewhere in the universe someone has the rights to this production and if it might be possible to obtain a copy on DVD? Any help here would be great. Thanks Mike, love the show.
MW: I’m sorry, but I haven’t got a clue how you would be able to find that.
- DannoWOW! Mike you say you enjoy a good debate!
Well, when we often phone the show we are not usually given the opportunity too have that. With that being said this is our only avenue too express our frustration.
If we start too rant on the radio we will be cut off!
If you want too keep misleading the fans that is your choice!
Bottom line, THIS IS NOT A GOOD TEAM….
If this team wins more then 70-73 games I will be very,very suprised!!!!!
Hope you take my call tommorow night?????
It will be can’t miss radio for sure….
Dan
MW: You’re right, if you start to rant on the radio, you usually get cut off. But the opportunity to rant is not the same as the opportunity to debate.
- dan harrisonI have no real facts or statistics to predict this, but I think the Jays are going to be a fun team to watch and will be pretty competetive.
I base my feelings strictly on a full year of Cito and his coaches.
Am I dreaming?
Al
MW: No. They’re going to be a fun team to watch and will be pretty competitive. Not likely competitive for a playoff spot, though.
- Al from BurlingtonLook at this article here:http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9418824/Here%27s-what-to-expect-in-2009
They basically expect the Blue Jays to go on a fire sale.
MW: Lots of people expect that, I’m not sure why.
- andrewIt’s good to see not everyone is writing this team off.
I tuned in to The Grill Room early last week and apparently you were expected, but couldn’t make it. It’s too bad, I would’ve liked your two cents in there. The whole panel, with the exception of Gareth, went into some typical J.P. bashing, and basically laughed off any chance of the Jays being even half decent this year. Somewhere in there I even heard something like, “Best bullpen last year? Maybe. Best starting staff? No, I don’t believe that.” I think you could’ve made them sound pretty retorted. I’m glad I get to listen to Alan Ashby.
I could see T.O. being anywhere between the low 70s and low 90s in wins, just because of the “who knows” factor. But I’m being optimistic and throwing 89 out there as my pick, because… it’s my pick and I can take any damm number I want. That’s probably more of a hope than an expectation, but I don’t like doubting my team.
I expect more, or at least not less, production from Overbay, Rolen and Rios, Wells’(s) numbers were fine last year projected over 162, obviously hoping he gets more games in, and having Lind, Snider and Hill around all year should be a good boost, and so should adding a couple LHP-hitting guys.
The bullpen, well, that should be fine.
The starters may go through some struggling, but I don’t think it’s quite in Knopfler territory. Although it’s a small sample size, Richmond has shown he’s good-enoughable in the bigs. People have been crying for the Romero pick to show up, so here it is, and, we’ll see. Then there’s Purcey, plus all the guys waiting in the wings. Something good’s gotta come out of all those arms.
Also, some of us might be forgetting how important D is to pitching. Not to discount what the pitchers have done the last couple years, but I don’t see it happening without the D, which I have every reason to believe will be just as good this year. I’d still love to see Johnny Mac get more everydayness.
So there’s my reasons for optimism, and you can be optimistic too, because I promise my next post will be shorter. Hopefully much.
Thanks, Mike
Ok, Blue Jays! Let’s play ball!
- Dilly in Dundas (not the street)What’s wrong with a little optimisim in April?
I’ve been surprised to see the predictions of trusted media types regarding the Jays – Blair, 4th in East – Bastian 5th in East (5th?!)
If there’s increased pessimism and negativity, the media, including knowledgable people who are with the team every day, are doing little to dissuade such thoughts.
I’m with you in thinking that this year is going to be much more interesting to watch. This offence has to be better, and the pitching isn’t pathetic – although certainly not as good as last year (at least in April).
It would be nice if the team got off to a good start to generate some excitement to start the year. I’ll be watching (or listening) either way.
MW: Glad to hear it.
- Chris - ThoroldMike,
Is there a chance Johnny Mac will play enough innings this year for gold glove consideration?
Do the Jays brass pay attention to modern statistical analysis that are groundbreaking in predicting success? Cito strikes me as way too old school to look at these numbers.
Thanks!
Eli
MW: No, and yes. Maybe not Cito so much, but there are guys who do pay attention to the newer metrics.
- EliI don’t see the big black cloud that so many people are writing about. This is a team with question marks, but I think their good question marks. What I mean by that is; first off, the rotation. There are 3 unproven starters who haven’t had a lot of major league experience but that also means they haven’t had any “bad” years either, so it could go both ways with them. As for the lineup? Health to me is the major factor. There are 4 players who have hit .300 before this year plus Lind and Snider could reach that number as well. If you look at Boston’s roster (which is the team you picked to take the division) they have question marks all over the place. Lowell, coming off hip surgery and is 35 yrs old, he probably will never reach his career number’s again. An argument can be made that Ortiz is on the down side of his career. I think the planet would stop rotating if JD Drew played 140 games this season. Becket missed close to 9 weeks last year from Abdominal surgery and an inflamed elbow on his pitching arm. Dice K is a walk machine (5 BB per 9 IP) The Yanks could run into injury troubles and the jury is still out on the Rays. So who know’s, plus we have Brad Arnsberg and Cito Gaston. And Gaston’s crew are with the team from the start of spring training. And finally, the 92 and 93 teams are coming back for a LONG OVERDUE reunion. Time to dig out the Guzman jersey!! There’s my rational, reasonable comment. Take care Mike have a blast on opening day, i’ve been to one myself, in 2003 when Jeter dislocated his shoulder sliding into Huckaby at 3rd. It was one of the most unforgettable atmosphere’s i’ve ever been apart of.
MW: That was a pretty awesome day, and another occurrence that cemented my opinion of Derek Jeter.
- Go GruberHello Mike
I’ve been a fan of your show for the last few years, but I find that your predictions this year are way too overly optimistic. I don’t see how this team can win 85 games with the question marks on offence and with starting pitching. You’re telling me that with the loss of Burnett, McGowan, and Marcum (amongst others), it is likely that they will win 85 games compared with last year’s 86? I understand that Lind and Snider will be full time contributors, and Hill will be back, but do you honestly think that will be enough, especially with Snider being relatively unproven?
Also, can you please explain to me how with Janssen and Cecil in the rotation, it is almost as strong as it was for most of last season? In essence, you are saying that Jannsen and Cecil are the equivalent of Burnett and Marcum…I don’t see how you can say that with a straight face.
MW: When did I say that it’s likely the Jays will win 85 games? I think Cecil is going to be great, and I think a healthy Janssen could have a very similar year to the one Burnett had last season (ignore the number of wins, I mean the real stats).
- MikeHey Mike,
Happy Opening Day.
A return to form by Lyle Overbay?
A return to form still means he’s the fifth-best first baseman in the division in terms of offensive production and still below average production in the American League.
I’d like to be optimistic and see Janssen and perhaps Cecil in May.
Hey Mike, what do you think the over/under is on McGowan’s return date, or do you think he’ll pitch this year?
Happy Opening Day
MW: I’ll take a 2006 Overbay over a 2009 Aubrey Huff, but yes, Teixeira, Youkilis and Pena are better. I think the over/under on McGowan is August 15th, and I’m not confident he’ll pitch this year.
- Ken PaganIt’s finally here again – opening day and a long season for you there Mike – not too many days off for the next 6+ months!
I like the way the season is shaping up to tell you the truth. With Cito having a full spring training back under his belt he and his crew know more about their team now than last year.
It only takes one bat to help get things going and with Hill back in the line-up he will fill a void from last season and hopefully that will help to make things better. Watch for Scott Rolen to turn around his misfortunes of late.
With pitching, question marks for sure! We still have Doc going, and when he sets the table it is pure incentive for the others to follow his lead. The bullpen is still going to set the standard for the rest of the league.
I hope (I maybe alone on this one) the Jays will give their much maligned GM another contract. It would be nice (and deservedly so)to see him stick around to harvest what he has sown down in the minors, and what we have on the current roster. JP has done some very good things here that, for whatever reason did not work out. Events that were out of his control! The line-up of last year (hitting) did not produce what it should have – and everyone out there knows very well, it was not his fault.
No matter what happens with JP – one thing for sure is, a lot of future success of the Blue Jays will come as a result of his own hand – his fingerprints will be all over this team for a few years to come and that will be something we will appreciate.
I am so looking forward to this season down at the ball yard and on the radio! Not at all setting myself up for any dissapointments here. Just hearing the familiar voices over the radio is like family and old friends coming to visit.
Did you manage some good interviews for future broadcasts Mike while you were in Fla – especially the 10 questions?
All the best and continued good luck for the up-coming 2009 season Mike.
Thank you!
MW: I did manage to pick up some solid tape while I was down there, you’ll hear it throughout the season.
- Bob from Burlingtonhey, i dunno if its a problem on my end, but the jays talk in this post says error opening file. Also, i know there is all this doom and gloom perpertuated by all the Nay sayers, and i appreciate and applaud your efforts for always putting a positive spin on things. I am a jays season seat holder, and probably will attend over 70 games, like all “true” jays fans should, so we can up payroll. Like you i am telling everyone, no more wasted at bats on subpar or past their prime players, and a starting staff that will see halladay have less “1-0″ defeats this season, can you say cy-young. And who knows, if all goes well:
Halladay 24-7;
Litsch 15-9;
Purcey 13-10;
Romero 12-12
Richmond 8-10;
with the fill in’s, and relievers winning a few more no decisions, this season may be a little better then expected, i predict a closer opportunity at Wild card, before a cellar dweller team this year.
MW: I also think they’re closer to being a wild card team than a cellar-dweller, though I don’t think they’re especially close to either one.
- paolohey mike, while it may be a cliche, hope springs eternal on opening day, and i for one am keeping an open mind on the jays this year. win or lose or lurch along just below .500, looking forward to your coverage. also, love the fact that the mlb app on my iphone lets me listen to the home or away radio broadcast for any game and any team, all season long. how cool is that.
MW: Pretty cool!
- joemichael,
i’ve crunched all the numbers & rolled out my projections for each player on the roster on an individual basis. barring any unforeseen injuries,
i’ve got the blue jays for a 109 wins this yr.
there it is.
and if you’re wondering, no i haven’t started drinking yet today.
will be down there tonite.
can’t wait……….
MW: You’re just setting yourself up for disappointment, but I hope you can enjoy the season nonetheless.
- darrell bishopMike,
Today is the greatest day of the entire year.
Today is opening day! Today is the day that every MLB team is in first place (not counting last nights Phils-Braves tilt). Today everyone gets a fresh start, no matter how great or how horrible you played last year. As of today, anyone can be an all-star and any team can make the post season. Baseball is magic, and with magic, anything can happen. Any team can win any game on any given day. I fully believe that these boys are going to go out there and bring home a pennant, and if they don’t, they are going to give it there best shot. They have just as much a chance as any other team, and so it is until they are mathematically eliminated or have a title in hand. Bring on the excitement of a crushing win and the mental exhaustion of a 1-0 loss. This is the best game in the world played by the best team in the world (our team). Let’s get some passion everyone! Baseball is back.
Let’s Play Ball!!!!!
MW: I’m not sure how to respond to this. I hope you enjoyed the crushing win!
- IanHey Mike,
I am also cautiously optimistic about this year. I think the offense will be more like the offense from the second half of the year and I think the rotation will be better once Janssen and Cecil shift in and Richmond and whomever shift out.
I think this team will win anything from 80-90 wins this year and I would bet on 86.
MW: If you really want to make that bet, Vegas will be happy to take it!
- Chris JonesMike,
Well the season kicks off tonight, and I for one am excited. I am glad that short-term free agent fixes weren’t brought in and the kids are going to get a chance to play.
Most successful sports teams are built from the prospects up, not free agents. No one thought the Rays were going to do anything last year and look what happened?
I’m hoping to bring my son to some games this summer to see Snider, Lind, Johny Mac (his favourite player, same birthday), Doc, Rios and the gang.
Jays won 86 games with Wilkerson and Mench. This team could win 90 and still finish 4th. Nothing wrong with that. I think this team will surprise some people.
Should be some exciting games down at the ballyard. Good that the young pitchers are getting a chance. Remember 2 years ago when the older offseason signings were hurt which lead to Marcum and McGowan in the rotation. I think we will see that the Jays have a bunch of pitching that other teams are going to start to crave which will lead to some deals that will push this team up even higher in the standings.
Looking forward to your posts this year Mike
Aaron Ker
MW: I’ll say this – there’s no way this team finishes fourth with 90 wins.
- Aaron KerJust thought I would remind you of your prediction of last year — the Rays will finish last. I predict a last place finish for the Blue Jays this year, but will surprise everyone by winning it in 2010.
I have no idea why Joe Bautista is still on this team — in terms of price and ability. He will be a huge suckhole for the Blue Jays this year in every aspect. Dallas Macpherson is available yet we are paying a no-hit, no field player way above market because Cito likes 15 home runs.
MW: Joe Bautista isn’t on the team.
- Jim BMike,
the one thing that seems good is the base of young talent that JP has accumulated. If they turn out as good as they seem the future is bright. The one issue regarding JP’s judgement seems to be his ability to judge existing major league talent. Again he rolled the dice on a couple of pitchers and both didn’t pan out. This is the most worrisome part of being a fan of the team. As a scout of unproven talent he seems to have it nailed. Lack of budget is not an excuse as he has had the budget in the past and very little seemed to work. I’m might be wrong but it’s just my view point. I hope the Jays surprise this year or are enjoyable to watch at the least.
MW: You do realize that signing Clement and Maroth (the two guys to whom I assume you’re referring) were massive high-risk, high-reward gambles, right? Neither of them were expected to work out, and therefore it didn’t cost them anything to sign them. Neither worked out, but if one had, it would have been a huge payoff.
- HowardHi Mike,
not sure if you’re the one to contact about this, but the Jaystalk file isn’t working.
Happy opening day.
MW: I’ll get the crack staff on it.
- MichaelHey Wilner,
So what’s your take on not moving Hill to short and getting inglett in the lineup at 2nd?
MW: I’ve discussed that many times in this very forum.
- GregHi mike. Id just like to add my two cents to the whole JP argument. I think that he was arrogant in the first part of his career, and made claims that he did not back up. This, understandably, left people in toronto with a bad taste in their mouths. Thus, much of the ill will.
However, i think that JP saw those exploits as a learning experience, and has gotten much better at his job. Look at our team.
The rotation has great depth, though some of it is injured, with marcum and mcgowan and the rookies who are learning this year, next year we have potentially seven decent arms. Those young pitchers are also good trade bait if they succeed to any reasonable margin.
The bullpen, which could again be the best in baseball just with what they have, also have a former 30 game closer in the minors, as well as a guy who is an extra long man. Also, either of these could be good trade bait, given the right circumstances.
Finally, in the field, every position is backed up by a minor leaguer, a couple of which are possible stars. Plus, Inglett, Lane and Chavez, just for some extra veteran depth. In case the Minor leaguers arent ready. In terms of starters, there are potential or former all-stars and ROY’s (only one of those) littered throughout the line up.
This year may not be great, but looking at the job JP has done, it is hard to sat that he hasnt learned how to build a team. I think that the people who want him out are simply those who hold grudges and let that grudge cloud their judgement. This team is built from the ground up, to sustain itself, with every piece except alex rios and roy halladay being expendable and having value.
Thats my thoughts, i ask anyone to rebut them.
Cheers
Dave
MW: The floor is open.
- daveMike
I just heard that the Cubs released Chad Gaudin.He didn’t pitch well for them but done a decent job with the A’s.Do you think the Jays should take a flyer on him as a backup since Clement has retired?
MW: If he’s willing to go to the minors, sure.
- Terrymike, good day for a dome! you have the jays finishing 3rd ahead of the rays. i checked on MLB and they have the jays dead last! jeff blair said on prime time at the fan that the jays are the worst team in the entire AL! it’s hard to be more negative than that.
MW: They’re not close to being the worst team in the whole league.
- Stanley SkawinskiHi Mike
Your mention of the eternal pessimists that hover around our team…and all teams for that matter just made me want to make a comment. I have found a couple of ways to cope with the pain of missing the playoffs year after year.
1. “You” are not missing the playoffs. They are on every year!
2. Look away from the standings and enjoy what baseball really has to offer. Every game…even the worst have at least a dozen great plays in them. baseball is a collection of individual moments that cumulatively can lead to a win or a loss. Watch for those moments and enjoy.
3. The best way to enjoy baseball win or lose is actually attending a game. So during these hard times, take an afternoon with a friend or family member and go see one. It might just make you feel better.
In closing for the optimists and pessimists, the stats geeks, the noobs, the GM’s and of course the coaches…relax and enjoy the show!
- TrevorHi Mike, Love the column/blog, just wondering, BJ Ryan has a “tired arm”? Whats the remedy and what do u expect to see from him this year, a good solid year, or a lengthy visit to the dl.
MW: There’s no remedy, they just usually take care of themselves – if that’s all it is. I don’t know what to expect from BJ this year.
- Ron FoxWhat do you think would be the bigger surprise to the baseball world …. What the Rays of 2008 did, going all the way to the World Series after being a last place club for so long .. Or …
The 2009 Jays making the playoffs/making a run in the playoffs?
I guess I’m just trying to keep up some faith that the Jays could disprove most all media who have predicted them to finish no better than fourth (and fifth in some cases)
I’m certain not many, if any, media predicted the Rays to be at all a factor last year, so maybe history could repeat itself.
MW: The Rays of 2008 would be the bigger surprise, without a doubt.
- ColeWell no one seems to want to comment, so I guess I will attempt one. I am looking forward to this season, just like I look forward to them all. I expect only one thing from my favorite team: they should play entertaining baseball. To me, the playoffs are always just a bonus. Expecting a team to make the playoffs before you can be satisfied as a fan will likely lead to disappointment (unless you are a Yankee fan).
Good luck to the Jays this year, I will be watching every game that I can.
MW: Actually, lots of people commented, I just didn’t moderate them quickly enough. But I’m glad you chimed in, too1
- RedHi Mike.
Given that you are a colleague of Bob McCowan and chat with JP Ricciardi on a regular basis, I’m wondering if you can shed some light on the following:
I wonder why JP Ricciardi never seems to be on the biggest and best (in my humble opinion) Fan 590 show, Primetime Sports with Bob McCowan, which is the only show I listen to on the station? Did the Bobcat ban JP like he banned former Raptor GM Rob Babcock (I don’t believe I’ve heard Bob officially announce a ban of JP)? Does JP not wish to go on Bob’s show? Or is it just some amazing coincidence / oversight that JP is never available (or never asked) to be on the show….?
MW: That’s a question that will have to be asked of Bob and/or JP.
- jimHappy Opening day Mike, Ive been looking forward to this day since Brad Lidge struck out Eric Hinske last year. Looking forward to hearing the best pre-game and post-game show in sports. I hope that anyone that does not know about this blog starts to read it regualarly because if you like hearing no nonsense baseball talk this is the place to be. Now that I have plugged the blog and your shows I do have a question, what kind of year are you expecting of Scott Rolen if he is healthy? I liked what I saw from him in the pre-season but I know that means nothing.
Have a blast tonight and enjoy the game
MW: If Rolen is healthy, I expect him to hit about .280/.365/.470, but I’ll hope for better.
- ChrisMike, your philosophy training is really coming into play in this post. Your assessment of those who predict the worst in order to “insulate” themselves from disappointment is right on. Here’s hoping the Jays surprise us all and have a great season! Hope springs eternal.
- VavaHey Mike,
Im just wondering, what’s the latest on ben sheets?
MW: Still recovering from elbow surgery, last I heard.
- JazzMike, Stephen Brunt was recently a guest lecturer for one of my courses, he said that he has heard from multiple sources that Mcgowan may never pitch again. I know this is just obviously hearsay, but aye carumba. Riccardi must have done something that the baseball god’s didn’t like.
MW: It’s a very longshot that McGowan never pitches again, but labrum injuries are scary scary.
- Hulk HoganI heard on satellite radio that the Jays have signed Chad Gaudin and he will join the team if he passes a physical. Any truth to that? Do you think he can help them? If this is true, I applaud J.P. for making this move. You can never have too many arms.
MW: My sources tell me there’s no truth to it.
- DomenickHey Mike, how would I get a request for a birthday greeting to Jerry & Alan?
Thanks,
N
MW: Let me know and I’ll pass it along.
- NickSurprised that BobCat is predicting 90 wins this season? I certainly am since he’s usually the most pessimistic of the Blue Jays.
- andrewi see jays win 90 games this year
- ginomassarihi mike can you doune me bluejays tickets to me becuse i am spial olympic athletle
- ginomassariMike, if shawn marcum and dustin mcgowan are gone for the whole season, does it affect their service time with the jays and does it affect their free agency?
MW: Yep.
- andrewHey mike!
Great game! kinda happy with the youth movement!!!! good stuff.
- hardeepDo you think the actor who played Maris in 61* looked like AJ Burnett?
MW: No.
==================
Sorry I meant the actor who played Msntle.
MW: I have to go back and look. It doesn’t ring a bell, though.
- ProkopecMatt Joyce hit 25 homeruns last year not 40…
Put it anyway you want, Tampa was dumb for making trade in the words of your colleague Jerry Howarth “You just don’t trade away a 14 game winner for that.”
MW: You are correct. Joyce hit 25 homers between AAA and the bigs last year – that’s what I get for believing Tampa sports radio. When has Jerry ever said that?
- Stevie H.So does that mean shawn marcum and dustin mcgowan are eligable to become free agents in 2013?
MW: Eligible, and after the 2012 season.
- andrewMike,
In your experience is it common to see a team’s CEO stand beside the PA man and feed him cue cards to read? Man that was funny! And they said JP was a micro manager…
And I heard the FAN at lunch today and Pearlman, the author of that book on Roger Rocket said he never even wrote that Roger had something to do with Cito getting fired.
You have to ask Cito about that to see if he has a Gilda Radner moment and says something like “Oh, he never said that Roger got me fired, OK then, that part about Roger being an A——….nevermind”
MW: Beeston was standing beside Tim Langton and giving him cue cards? When was that? And yeah, I heard that on the FAN, too – but I don’t think Cito’s going to do an Emily Litella on that one.
- ProkopecMW “Why, it will still be the same joke offense and Ryan will still be the closer” post #2.
I have several reasons to be optimistic regarding 2010, perhaps i didn’t explain it clearly. The rotation will be much improved with the addition of Marcum, McGowen and Cecil and the removal of Purcey, Romero and Richmond. Lind and Snider will have another year of experience under their belts and should become major contributors.
Even management has labelled this season as a write off and are focusing more on 2010, which was evident by their lack of moves during the offseason.
One more item regarding Ryan….if he gets tagged and continues to throw 82 mph he will not be the closer in 2010, he will probably be replaced by mid-season. I hope it is just a dead arm situation and he returns to form this season.
MW: What do you have against Purcey? And have you ever actually seen Romero pitch? And your post before said that you expect Lind and Snider to become major contributors “in a few years”, not next year.
- rickHi Mike, I was at the game. That was great when you did the interview after the game and we could see and hear it. Thanks! I was so happy for Adam Lind, what a great game for him and the Jays.
MW: Sorry you couldn’t hear the first part of it, though.
- LizHi Mike
From your response to my post (#51)
“I see the Jays as an 82-85 win team that is likelier to win 90 than to lose 90″
Last year they won 86 games…so with the losses to the starting rotation, we can expect them to win 82-85? I know its possible, but we would need very big years from Snider, and Lind, and bounce back years from VDub, Rolen, and Overbay…I’m not sure I see all those pieces falling into place…
MW: I don’t think they need VERY big years from Snider and Lind, they need them to be good, Wells to be healthy (bounce back from hitting .300 and leading the team in HR in 2/3 of a season?), and Rolen and Overbay to bounce back, yes.
- MikeMW: I’ll take a 2006 Overbay over a 2009 Aubrey Huff, but yes, Teixeira, Youkilis and Pena are better.
As are Cabrera, Konerko, Morneau, Butler, Thome, Blalock, Chris Davis, and a 2008 Huff.
I think we should compare Overbay to AL West first baseman, where he could hold his own, at least until Barton and Morales start to shine.
- Ken