5:15 PM Eastern
How often do you see a young pitcher fall behind 2-0 two batters into a game, then wind up allowing four runs on six hits (three of which go for extra bases) over five innings and actually improve his chances of making a team? It seems as though that’s what Brad Mills did today.
Mills certainly wasn’t awful in throwing his 79 pitches (which is pretty efficient work). He only walked one, as opposed to the five he walked last time out, and he struck out four, but he did get hit around a bit. The homer by Carl Crawford was a line shot to right, and there was a double high off the left-field wall by Morgan Ensberg and another deep down the left-field line by Adam Kennedy. Mills also gave up a shot to the warning track by Carlos Pena, needed a terrific defensive play by Kevin Ahrens at third to prevent another double and hit a guy.
After the game, Cito Gaston said “What’s not to like about this guy?”.
Well, he did retire the last six hitters he faced, getting out of a first-and-third, nobody-out in the 4th and, again, the one walk/four strikeout thing was nice. Mills has good stuff, not great. He comes right at you, but he doesn’t overpower you. He also shows no fear, which I think is the biggest thing that has made Cito and J.P. Ricciardi fall in love with him.
Brad Mills is going to make this team as the fourth starter, now that Casey Janssen is out of the running for a spot.
Janssen’s MRI, which he carried right past me on his way into the clubhouse this morning, revealed what the Blue Jays are calling a “mild muscle strain”. He will resume throwing on Monday, but there’s no way he’ll be able to be stretched out enough to break camp in the rotation.
After talking to Cito and J.P. today, I’m convinced that Matt Clement is a long longshot to make the team, which runs counter to my original thinking. They seem to be bending over backwards to make sure Scott Richmond stays on even footing with everyone else, and Gaston is a big fan of Richmond’s based on how he pitched for him last season.
As for today’s lambasting of the Rays, the Jays used a five-run 5th and an eight-run 6th to power their way to the blowout win. The 5th-inning rally started with two out and nobody on. Russ Adams tripled down the right-field line to get things going, and was cashed by a flare single by Jose Bautista. An Alex Rios single and a walk to Kyle Phillips loaded the bases, and set up booming back-to-back two-run doubles by Kevin Millar and Jason Lane, the King of Spring.
In the 6th, the Jays nickel-and-dimed Jeff Niemann to death for eight runs on seven hits and a couple of walks. Most of the hits were bloopers and soft liners, and there was even a bouncer that got through shortstop Jason Bartlett because Angel Sanchez got in Bartlett’s line of vision. The entire inning was put together by guys who won’t see any big-league time this year, with the possible exception of Michael Barrett, who contributed a three-run double to the cause.
Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Brandon League and Jesse Carlson contributed a shutout inning of relief each, with Camp striking out the side after a double and a passed ball put a runner on third with nobody out. Carlson was the only one who put up a 1-2-3 frame, but they all looked good. Before the game, Cito mentioned that Camp and Tallet could be his long guys in the ‘pen this year. That was a bit of a surprise, since there aren’t too many people who have Camp making the team. If he does, he squeezes out Jeremy Accardo, it would appear.
We’re back on the air tomorrow with the Jays and Astros – Roy Halladay is expected to throw six innings, he’ll face Jose Capellan. The Astros picked up just their second win of the spring today. Scott Downs, B.J. Ryan and Brian Tallet are expected to follow Doc. For Downs, it’ll be his first appearance of the spring, having been sidelined by a twinge in his left elbow earlier in the spring.
It’ll also be Vernon Wells’ first start of the spring in centrefield – he’ll play three or four innings. He went 0-for-2 as the DH today, flying out and grounding into a double play. Afterwards, he told me “three outs on two swings, I’m right where I need to be.”
Make sure you tune us in for the full pre-game on the Fan Radio Network and mlb.com, and stick around for The JaysTalk afterwards!
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome.
Click here to subscribe to Wilner's blog
hey Mike…could you tell us what pitches Mills has/velocity..i keep hearing about him, but never seen him before…very inriguing
MW: He has a sinker and a big 12-to-6 curveball. I haven’t seen a gun on him, but I’m thinking he’s about 88-91.
- jpThe Skychiefs are looking pretty good this year.
MW: Well, good luck to them. How do you know so much about the Nationals’ farm system?
- Matt McLeanHey Mike. Just putting you in the managers shoes for a moment. If it was your call would you go with 6 relievers or 7 with a 5 man rotation? I’d go with the 6 unless I was using a 4 man rotation, which I do like doing in videogames sometimes.
MW: Which you can only do in videogames (or simulations). I hate the idea of the seven-man bullpen.
- Matt in BCHi Mike,
Can you see the Jays taking Camp over Frasor this year? Camp was toxic to RH batters last year, while Frasor always seems unable to handle pressure situations or a heavy workload (i.e., he seems ineffective when pitching in back-to-back games). Plus I believe Frasor is also more expensive.
MW: The Jays have said that Frasor’s job is safe.
- JamieHi Mike,
I haven’t had the opportunity to follow the Jays closely his spring s it has been a hectic start to the year. How has BJ Ryan looked lately? has he ironed out his earlier troubles? I am not too worried, though because if Ryan falters for some reason, I really believe Brandon league can step in. I think he is ready to take the next step and be the dominant pitcher he was touted to be. Actually, I want to ask, if BJ is throwing well come the trade deadline, what do you think of the Jays using him as trade bait and taking a chance on League as closer? I think it would make perfect sense if League pitches very well. It would be like the passing of the torch. If the jays aren’t contending, why not move Ryan and his contract and go with the kid. Just a thought. Kind of like the passing of the torch from Alfredo griffin to Tony fernandez….from Big John Mayberry to Willie Clay Upshaw….from Tom Henke to Duane Ward….
So here is my rotation:
Halladay
Litsch
Purcey
PEDRO MARTINEZ???
Clement or Cecil or Mills
Thats right, I said Pedro. he Jays should take a flyer on Pedro. Why not? He still has something left.
MW: The Jays couldn’t afford to give Ivan Rodriguez $1.5 million guaranteed, and Pedro wants five million. I could see them maybe trading Ryan at the deadline, if a team is desperate for a closer and is willing to really pony up.
- IanHey, Mike…
Just what your take on this. i have benn reading alot of expert predictions on the jays 09 season and most think that the jays are a 70 win team. Do you think the Jays will at best only get to 75 wins this year.
MW: No. I think the Jays are an 80-85 win team.
- JamesMike, I dont get it..Bautista may be versatile, but to keep him at the expense of Inglett? Inglett is versatile as well and a much better hitter/on base guy in his limited career. Also, much cheaper than keeping Bat man. What else did inglett have to do last year to prove he belong? I think he might be getting a raw deal. The jays have plenty of “versatile” layers who cant hit worth beans.
also regarding lane, you stated in jays talk that you didnt really think there was anything lane could do to make this team out of spring training. then why sign him? so he can go to AAA and wait for someone to get hurt?
MW: Yes, that’s exactly the reason to sign Lane. In fact, that’s why he was signed to a minor-league contract. As for Inglett, he has options and Bautista doesn’t. Bautista can play first or left or DH against lefties and Inglett can’t. I’m not saying it’s the right move, but it’s the move they appear to be preparing to make.
- generalzodMike,
How is League doing so far? I am big on this kid and I remember hearing someone (I think it was Tabby) call his 100MPH fastball, with movement, “unfair”. I also recall that he tends to keep going to his slider, which is not his best pitch. I watched him make a mockery of the Red Sox in a game last year until he hung a slider that Pedroia tattooed over the left field wall for the game winning run. Frustrating when he does not make guys beat his best pitch. Is he making guys beat his fastball? Has his slider improved?
BTW – I envy your job and think you are rather good at it. I appreciate your candour and ability to call a spade a spade.
Oh – and Camp over Accardo? Ouch. Here’s hoping Jeremy can find his old form again.
Cheers
MW: I haven’t really seen League pitch much. He threw well yesterday against T-Bay, but I didn’t see it. I think his sinker is phenomenal and, yes, it is unfair to hitters when he’s throwing it well.
- DarrenMike – I’m wondering about the amount of playing time both Russ Adams and J. Lane are getting. Assuming neither make the trip north, what do you reckon their roles might be for the organization? Are they being showcased for possible trades? Or would they be top of the list of guys to come up in case of injury?
MW: I think Lane is at the top of the list to be an injury fill-in, and may even be able to contribute if, say, the Jays trade a Jose Bautista by the end of Spring Training (the Astros, at the very least, are interested but don’t have the financial flexibility right now). As for Adams, I really don’t know. He’s certainly hitting well, but the Jays have no use for him. Maybe they are showcasing him so that they can recover something out of him before he walks away as a minor-league free agent.
- ol' brucieThe Jays are interested in anybody who can pitch at least 4 innings now. The Canadian kid they are negotiating with seems like a real long shot just like starting pitchers 3 through 5.
MW: You should really look harder at the pitchers the Jays are considering for the bottom of the rotation. Good lazy regurgitation of the Jays’ mindless critics, though.
- JimWith Brad Mills and Scott Richmond’s ERA’s around 5.00, it can’t be good for the Jays..Not many teams missing 3 starting pitchers are going to find them in their minor leagues..I have never been a fan of Richmond and I don’t think he is a legit starter..He reminds me of Tanyon Sturtze..He just gives up too many hits..
Take away Halladay and you basically have 4 guys that are 4th and 5th starters at best..Purcey has ability and Litch has shown he is a legitimate starter but neither are worthy of following Halladay..This could be a long year for the Jays and I think Riccardi should take some of the blame..
He spent too much on Thomas and traded for Rolen..There is no way upper management can be happy with dishing out almost 20 mil on Thomas..Imagine if he didn’t sign Thomas maybe he has a few bucks to spend this year..Nobody knows this for sure and maybe that is a stretch but nobody in baseball thought this was a good signing..
MW: You’re wrong on that. A lot of people thought Ricciardi was wise to swoop in and sign Thomas (coming off a huge year) before the market set, but that move REALLY didn’t work out at all. That signing has nothing to do with the budget for this year, though. Springtime ERAs mean less than nothing, so don’t base your thinking about Richmond and Mills on that. And as for teams that dip into their minor leagues to fill out their rotation? Check out the 2008 Minnesota Twins.
- ray brewerHey Mike,
What lines are you expecting Snider, Lind, Rios, Rolen and Overbay to put up this year?
Snider: .290 – 80 – 20 – 80
Lind: .280 – 70 – 15 – 75
Rios: .300 – 100 – 25 – 100
Rolen: .280 – 70 – 20 – 70
Overbay: .280 – 60 – 10 – 70
Am i being too optimistic here?
MW: All those numbers are achievable, with the 20 homers for Rolen being the biggest stretch and the 15 for Lind being the most conservative. But it’s impossible to try to predict how many runs guys should score or drive in, it’s just not within their control enough.
- Harry“three outs on two swings, I’m right where I need to be.”
Does Vernon actually realize how terrible he is? Or is this sarcasm?
MW: I’ll let you answer your own question.
- GeoffMike,I’m listening to the game and I’m slightly confused. Jerry and Alan were talking about Brad Mills possibly being the #3 starter, with Clement #4 and Ricky Romero as #4. What’s happened to David Purcey?
Also,what’s with Halladay giving up 4 home runs in his last two starts (so far). is there a chance he’ll have opening day taken away from him?
MW: I don’t think Jerry and Alan said that, though I did hear Jerry hand the fourth starter’s job to Mills, which is premature, at best. And you’re kidding about Halladay, right?
- Sam McLeanWhat is it about the Rays that does not make you a believer in them?
MW: Lots of things.
- andrew“He went 0-for-2 as the DH today, flying out and grounding into a double play. Afterwards, he told me “three outs on two swings, I’m right where I need to be.”
Mike:
What kind of stupid comment was that? I expect more from a $120 million dollar professional athlete. Something along the lines of “I don’t ever like to make three outs on two swings.”
Even if it was a joke, it was a bad one, as Vernon is yet to deliver an all-star calibre performance since 2006.
That being said, I like him, and hope he does big things this year. What do you expect from VW this season (AB, AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI)?
On another note, who is the 3B of the future? Could Campbell be that guy, or do the Jays look for a trade or FA for 2011?
Also, what could we expect from Shawn Hill, if the Jays were to sign him, and he gets and stays healthy?
MW: First of all, there are so many ifs in the question about Shawn Hill that it’s pointless to answer. Anything they get from Hill is gravy. Quite the overreaction to the self-effacing Wells joke, too, and not just from you. If Wells can stay healthy, I can see him hitting about .285/.335/.510 with 25-30 homers. The third baseman of the future is either Scott Campbell or Brad Emaus. The more I see of Emaus, the more I like.
- andy mcHumm..I don’t think there were many people that believed Thomas was a good signing..I can remember several people “in the business” thinking it was a bad move..I realize that Thomas’ contract wasn’t going to kick in for this season but it might have..They were going to have to pay This ogre for last season regardless of where he played but you have to wonder if the suits were going to allow Riccardi to sign anymore players to those type of contracts again..
Is the freeze on payroll this season all about the economy or is it about who is signing these contracts?..
(re:comment 11)
As for Minnesota..They don’t play in the toughest division in baseball..The were awful against the AL East (13-22) and gave up 204 runs in the process..That’s a stingy ERA of 5.82..I’m no expert but I would have to say those are some bawdy numbers..
The Jays won’t get away with 2 or 3 rookie pitchers and a marginal major leaguer (Richmond) facing Boston and New York 36 times..It just won’t happen..
Unless the Jays start hitting, it’s gonna be a long season dude..
MW: Without question it’s gonna be a long season dude unless the Jays start hitting. That’s never been in dispute in this corner. To answer your question about signing contracts, if it was about the guy signing them there’d be a new guy signing them.
- ray brewerHello Mike, hope you’re well. If Clement does not make the team, as appears to be the case, will he then stay in AAA and be available for call up, or will he just basically fade away? I’d like to see him make the team, I think he’ll add a stable element if the rotation is bookended with theexperience of Halladay at the top and Clement at the bottom, but what do you think? Thanks.
MW: I think Clement pitched his way off the team this afternoon. He’ll go down to Vegas and once his stuff comes around, he’ll be available if Richmond or Mills/Romero stubs his toe, or if someone gets hurt.
- kitaMike…On the last post, I was the guy directly above the person who was bemoaning the Jays having no pitching and no hitting. So if you were referring to me when you told that guy that he was worse than the guy above you, I would be surprised because I never cut up the Jays and my questions as you surely have noticed, mostly deal with other teams and reminiscing about baseball history or asking about your favourite calls, players, memories, etc.
MW: Calm down, I didn’t mean directly above.
- chris m.Mike,
I’m baffled as to why the Jays didn’t axe Bautista (keeping Inglett up with the team and saving his last option) and use the money to sign Ivan Rodriguez. Does this not make sense to you?
MW: I would have done it. Or traded Bautista. But even saving the two million might not have been enough to sign Rodriguez.
- Ryan HallIt’s becoming increasingly obvious that Cito and JP have decided that they want to have another lefty to balance the starting rotation. Why else would they be regurgitating Ricky Romero’s name at this stage of the game? Obviously both must be believers that miracles can happen, and maybe figure that it’s time for one to happen for them.
Right now they seem to have decided that Mills, despite his obvious shortcomings, inexperience, or the number of runs and extra base hits he concedes, is, barring a miracle, their best candidate for the job.
I’m betting that Cito and JP have their fingers tightly crossed that Mills’ sphincter doesn’t let go, in the 2nd inning, when he’s on the bump at the new Yankee Stadium or at Fenway, and realizes he could use a little more seasoning.
As for Richmond, I have the feeling that he’ll turn out to be a pleasant surprise for you.
MW: I hope so, but I think of Richmond as a reasonable bottom-of-the-rotation guy. Being pleasantly surprised would be cool. Also, they may be bringing up Romero’s name again because he’s been pitching well.
- thebloodykiwiHey Mike,
Quick question. Is it out of the question at this point that Travis Snider starts the year in AAA to hold back his service clock, opening up a spot for Jason Lane to have a month or so run in the majors to see if he can keep up his Spring Training success?
Tnanks!
MW: Yes.
- BretHi Mike
I was disappointed yesterday Cause I couldn’t get a feed from MLB.com so couldn’t listen to you and the rest of the Fan590 crew. Not sure what happened.
Anything stand out with Doc? Or just a little tired after 6?
MW: Sorry about that, I don’t know what happened. As for Halladay, he probably hit a bit of a wall there.
- Richard from ARI’m glad to see Mills get a shot. Less glad about Richmond. I really thought Cecil was going to get that spot. I guess they don’t want to screw with a kid’s confidence or whatever, but I for one would like to see him out there every fifth day on my television screen. (I don’t get the feeds from Vegas, if such a thing exists.)
Question: How’s Snider coming along (health wise)? There hasn’t been a whole lot said after the first couple of days.
MW: Snider is on the travel squad for tomorrow’s game against the Reds. Cecil has been told to expect to be recalled by mid-May.
- pete“three outs on two swings, I’m right where I need to be.”
Does Vernon actually realize how terrible he is? Or is this sarcasm?
haha wow
- BrendanName at least two reasons why you don’t see the Rays as a contender.
MW: You don’t really name a reason so much as you give one, but anyway: 1 – I don’t expect them to hit nearly as well in the clutch this year as they did last; B – I don’t expect the shutdown bullpen to repeat its shutdowniness.
- andrewSam McLean you are too funny. Funniest thing I have heard all weekend: “is there a chance he’ll [Roy Halladay] have opening day taken away from him?” Good one. Wow.
Anyways Mike, your fellow sports reporter in Dunedin, Richard Griffin, wrote an article about the backup catcher prospects. Don’t know if you have answered this question already (if so, apologies)but who do you feel is most likely to back up Barajas?? (Griff predicts Barrett) Also what do you consider the most important attribute in a catcher? Managing? Throwing? Batting? etc. Obviously a combination of everything is nice.
Anyways keep up the good work.
MW: I think Barrett probably gets the job because of the offensive potential that he brings. I think the back-up catcher should balance the lead guy, and the Jays’ lead guy is more of a thrower than a hitter.
- JoshHi Mike; any chance Lyle Overbay doesn’t make the team as a starter?
MW: Only if he gets hurt.
- ZackI admit my question about opening day was a bit silly, but Halladay’s managed to finish his innings either of the last two times he pitched, and he’s given up 4 monster home runs over that stretch, including 2 to the number 8 hitter in his last start.
Previous to these two starts, people were talking about how he’s in midseason form. Apparently he’s not ready yet.
MW: He’ll be fine. There’s no reason to worry about Roy Halladay. And a bit silly? You think?
- Sam McLeanI agree Tampa won’t be a contender this year but they should still finish above the Jays..
I just don’t understand the logic here..The Stiffs er suits upstairs don’t want to spend money this year because of the economy or so they say..But I have to ask..How many people are going to show up to watch the Jays in August of they are 10-20 games below .500?
Their attendance is approaching 30,000 a game which is about 6,000 more per game then in 2004 when they won 67 games..Attendance has gone up every year for the last 3 seasons and if they spent some of the 15mil they saved on A.J on some pitching (Pedro, Pavano, etc..) the attendance may still go up in 2009…As it stands right now, if the Jays season falls apart, attendance will go down signifigantly..What do you think?
MW: I think you’re right, except not about Pedro and Pavano. Pedro, maybe, but evidently he wants too much money. I don’t think the season is going to fall apart, though. They won’t be 10-20 games below .500, they’re a little better than a .500 team with a better chance to be a lot better than a lot worse.
- ray brewerMike,
why not trade B.J. Ryan and maybe a reliever for a quality 2nd or 3rd starter before the season? I think League is ready to take over at closer and our rotation looks kinda ugly behind Halladay and Litsch. Ryan has some decent value after coming off a pretty good, healthy season. You think J.P. does anything in the next two weeks?
MW: He might do something, but it’d be along the lines of moving something like McDonald, Bautista or Inglett, maybe seeing if anyone wants Russ Adams or one of the relievers. I don’t think B.J. gets moved now, there’s no way he brings back a starter better than Purcey/Mills/Richmond anyway, and his value is higher later on in the season, I think.
- Mike BYou said in one of the comments that one of Emaus or Campbell is the 3B of the future. What about Kevin Ahrens? Does he not project as a third baseman, or do you just not see him being as good as either of those guys? I vaguely remember Chipper Jones comparisons after the ’07 draft, I really thought he and Jackson would be up around the same time manning the left side in the future.
MW: I think that Ahrens is further behind than the other two. But if he develops the way they believe he can, there’ll be an embarrassment of riches. It never quite works out that way, though.
- karimhey michael,
trying to get caught up here.
just returned from cozumel for the last 10 days. the espn station they had down there was spanish only & the ticker tape below was pretty much all soccer & some wbc.
not even a usa today paper to read at the resort i was residing at.
a wonderful place nonetheless.
read your blogs so definitely in the loop alot more now.
sounds like clement is out of the picture & janssen now hurt.
you know what might be fun mike.
bumping richmond too & going with the 3 young lefties. purcey, mills & either of romero or cecil.
what do you think of that?
run’ em out there til mcgowan & janssen are ok later on.
MW: It may well happen that all of Purcey, Mills and Romero make the team, but I think they want to carry Richmond. Romero certainly stated his case pretty strongly today, but it was just one start.
- darrell bishopMike
Have you heard anything new on Dustin McGowan? There has been some discussion on Marcum’s progress, but very little over the last two weeks on McGowan.
Also, anything new on a replacement for the Jay’s president?
thanks,
David
MW: There hasn’t been any news on McGowan since his little setback a few weeks ago, but no one seems terribly confident that he’ll pitch before the all-star break, and every once in a while you hear the word “if” with regards to McGowan pitching this year. Nothing new on the prez front.
- DavidJust a note on the trade BJ Ryan talk from Mike B. SI.com has reported that BJ is throwing in the low eighties. The jays will have a problem moving him for anyting right now.
- ClintHi Mike,
Is Brad Mills the son of the infielder of the same name who used to play for the Expos? I remember seeing Nolan Ryan strike him out in 1983 to set a significant strikeout record…
MW: Nope. That Brad Mills has a son named Beau who is in the Indians’ organization.
- KenMr. Wilner,
Apparently I’ve been going to school with one of your cousins. He caught me checking your blog in class today. Small world.
Anyways, I caught some of the wbc game bt. US & Japan yesterday. They said 43,000+ but I saw a lot of empty seats. With the US not making it to the finals again, what do you think is the future of the WBC? Do you feel Americans have gotten behind this tournament yet? I feel the bigger crowds were in Canada and Japan… but the numbers tell a different story. Obviously there has much been much talk about changing the format but the general consensus is there is no perfect formula (spring training vs. post-World Series, shorter tournament etc.) Part of me thinks there is a need to be patient and wait it out. The WBC is still in the very early stages and people will come around to it just like anything else. Another part of me feels that with the ridiculous contracts baseball is still handing out, some players can not justify sacrificing that type of money for their country any more. It’s too big of a risk (ex. Pedroia, Youkilis, Jones injured… none seriously enough to jeopardize contracts but maybe enough to scare other players). Also, in regards to the fans. Perhaps the hardcore fans that would normally support a tournament of this nature (and get it off the ground) are down in Arizona and Florida? I guess a counter argument would be to, again, look at the numbers. They’re getting 40,000+ to the big games. But I just don’t feel it has the spark of (you’re going to hate me for saying this) the World Jr. Hockey Tournament or on a much larger scale, The World Cup of Soccer. Where entire countries gather around their team. Where people take the day off work to watch the game. Obviously both of those took time to gain popularity and both have modified their format over the years.
Overall, I loved, loved, loved watching US vs Canada. And thus, think the tournament has potential and selfishly want to believe players will put the opportunity to play in those type of playoff-like games ahead of their contracts.
Am I naive/stupid? I know you’ll give me an honest answer. Thanks.
MW: I don’t think you’re naive or stupid. So long as the players are insured they’re not risking their long-term, very guaranteed contracts, so that’s not an issue. I agree with you, the tournament will take time to grow, just like anything else. It definitely doesn’t have the cache of the World Cup of Soccer, and likely never will, but I think it can eventually get close. As for the World Junior Hockey Championships, you’re right, I did hate that you said that. Especially because that tournament simply doesn’t register anywhere but Canada.
- JoshMight have just been a “typo”, Mike, but the word “cachet” has a “t” on the end (unless of course you were talking about the “funds pool” for the participants, where I’m guessing the Soccer guys DO have the bigger “cache”).
MW: Thanks!
- Norm