11:35 PM Eastern
There are several things for me to touch on in this post, and let’s start with the events of today – the Blue Jays signed 40 year-old Japanese lefty Ken Takahashi to a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training and revealed that Kevin Millar has been offered a similar contract.
The grand sum total of these two moves is next to nothing, and certainly not worth the wringing of hands and rending of garments I’m seeing across the blogosphere from the Blue Jays’ “faithful fans”.
Takahashi is not going to crack the best bullpen in baseball. He could be OK, he could have no impact at all, with the latter far more likely, but he’s another arm in the minor-league system, he’s not blocking anyone, and who knows, he could give them an in with the Hiroshima Carp as far as postings go down the road. Remember, the Japanese League team that posts a free agent doesn’t have to accept the highest bid, they pick the team they want to pick.
As for Millar, let’s all just calm down. First of all, he hasn’t accepted the Jays’ offer and he may well not, thinking he can get a major-league offer from someone in the next month or so, or choosing to wait for a team that he prefers to extend him the same offer. And if he does accept the offer and makes his way to Dunedin, that’s going to be a fun seven weeks of Spring Training that will probably end with him going to Las Vegas to wait until someone gets hurt or until some other team wants to offer him a spot in the big leagues. Maybe the Jays get a few hundred grand out of it, like they gave the Rangers for Kevin Mench (sorry to remind you of that).
The fact is, the Jays have their nine starters, who will be playing everyday, and their bench of four is likely to consist of Michael Barrett, John McDonald, Joe Inglett and Jose Bautista. There’s no room for Millar there, unless he proves to be a better option than Bautista. Millar has played third and the outfield corners in the past, like Bautista does, but right now Bautista is the better bat (against lefties, at least), and the Jays are paying him $2.4 million.
Which brings me to the next point. Why in the name of everything that’s good and just are the Blue Jays paying Jose Bautista $2.4 million for the upcoming season? I’ll grant that it’s a non-guaranteed contract like Reed Johnson’s was last winter (sorry to remind you of that, too), so that the Jays can cut him in Spring Training and only be on the hook for $400,000, but seriously. Nothing against Bautista, who is a really nice guy and a decent bat to have against lefties, but in this marketplace there’s no way that Bautista gets an offer even close to that as a free agent.
The only things I can think of are that the Jays were either operating on the “bird in the hand” theory or that they didn’t want to have given up Robinzon Diaz for six weeks of Jose Bautista in a season that wasn’t going anywhere.
Even if they do cut him in Spring Training, they’re still on the hook for 400 grand, and if he makes the team, they’re likely paying him at least a million and a half dollars more than they would have had they just cut him loose in December and re-signed him.
It’s mind-bottling for a team that’s watching its pennies to the extent that it laid off one of the assistant G.M.’s to be wasting money like this.
The next item on the list is the fact that Joe Torre mentioned the Blue Jays in his book, and there are those who are getting all out of sorts about the revelation that Brian McNamee said every Jays pitcher was taking amphetamines when he was there and Gord Ash just looked the other way.
Someone will have to explain to me why this is a big deal. From about the 1950s, maybe earlier, until last year PRETTY MUCH EVERY PLAYER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES WAS ON SPEED. Sorry, that’s just the way it was. Now they’re testing for it, so now guys are pounding a dozen Red Bulls or drinking 30 cups of coffee before or during every game. They used to have jars of greenies in the clubhouse like candy dishes, and players would grab handfuls as they went by.
Jeff Blair’s story in today’s Globe and Mail includes an e-mail from Gord Ash in which the Jays’ ex-G.M. said that he had no reason to believe that the Jays were unique and that there were no obvious issues. That sounds just about right. Sure, the Jays were taking speed. Everybody was. That was the culture of major league baseball up until last season.
I spoke to a lot of baseball people about illegal performance enhancers when the Commissioner’s Office announced the first set of more stringent drug testing, and the answers – to a man – were the same. Should they ban steroids? “Yes, steroids are harmful and it’s cheating and it’s terrible and evil and we have to clean up the game.” Should they ban amphetamines? “Well, it’s a long season……..” I’ve already spent more time on this issue than it deserves.
The last thing I want to touch on is the comments section. Frankly, I’m sick of the negativity and I don’t want to deal with it anymore. You don’t like J.P. Ricciardi? Fine. You think the Jays are going to suck this year? OK by me. A minor-league signing makes you want to throw yourself off a cliff? Don’t land on anybody. I don’t want to hear about it.
I had hoped that by ending EVERY post I write with “rational, reasonable comments are welcome” that I wouldn’t get any irrational, unreasonable comments. That certainly hasn’t been the case. There are many good Blue Jays blogs out in the ether that would sit somewhere on a scale of loving to tolerating those sorts of comments. This isn’t one of them. If you have a question I can answer, that’s cool. If you want to talk baseball, no problem. If you want to criticize the Blue Jays AND HAVE SOMETHING CONSTRUCTIVE TO SAY, outstanding. If you just want to say that J.P. sucks and the team sucks and nobody should ever go to a baseball game in Toronto until he’s fired and Lyle Overbay is traded, then please take your act elsewhere.
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Would you take a flyer on any of the remaining free agents? Offering them a one or two year contract for 5-10 Million a year, because there are a couple of big names still on the market and the Yankees seem to be done spending and no other team will give them what there looking for.
Guys like Hudson, Dunn & Sheets.
MW: I’d definitely take a two-year flyer on Sheets. I’m a big fan of Dunn’s, but if they can’t move Overbay, then he would take time away from Adam Lind and Travis Snider, and they could wind up giving the Jays about what Dunn could for about a tenth of the price combined. Hudson is interesting, because if Hill isn’t ready to roll, they could really use him. They could also use him if Hill is ready to roll and is willing to move to short, but it doesn’t seem as though anyone thinks that’s in the club’s best interests.
- DMillarMonsieur Wilner, I just wanted to say hello. I hope you’ve had a most pleasant winter. I am so excited about the upcoming season. The Jays will surprise.
And, cowboy up!
Seriously, though, a question. Purcey or Richmond in the rotation?
MW: There’s a chance for both, but definitely Purcey, at least.
- eyebleafI sense your frustration. Stupidity knows no bounds, unfortunately. I,for one, thoroughly enjoy your blog. You won’t be bogged down with asinine comments from this reader. Keep up the great work, Sir. Love your insight. Thank you.
MW: Thanks
- Karl R. Thomsonmike, you say aaron hill was sorely missed? you mean the jays missed his sub .400 slug % 3/4 years. inglett clearly outperformed him. what stats are you looking at? age?
MW: Did you not read the last paragraph?
- roccoGood to hear from ya!
- SpiderSilvaMW (re Givens) In the grand scheme of things – who cares?
You should care and I should care. The guy was laid off and they made it sound like he was fired. That was careless at best and completely avoidable.
However I wouldn’t want to upset you by criticizing the team, so let’s all join hands and prance around a couple of unicorns shall we?
MW: I didn’t say who cares about Bart Given in the grand scheme of things, I said who cares that there wasn’t a press release. I stand by that.
- isabella reyesHi Mike,
WOW! I just finished reading the comments prior to this post – seems that winter “cabin fever” has set in and we still have February to get through.
Negative, negative – there are some commenting out there who should be “popping a few” – just wake them up. Give your head a shake boys & girls. Do take it somewhere else – please.
Mike, why you respond to some of these knuckleheads is beyond me. I realize, you are the most accomodating host of any blog I have read – regradless of the sport.
However, you need a break and no matter how tough it is to not respond – you would be far better off ignoring them.
It’s one thing to put up a decent opposite opinion for discussion – but to keep on with comments that make no sense at all or are just nothing but negative – is getting really tiring and is in fact very old. Give it a rest people.
Give Mr. Wilner a rest.
Thanks
- Bob from BurlingtonMikey, I heard you on Roth’s Anabolic Stories Radio Show on Sunday afternoon. You told him that the Yankees “aren’t much better.” Why do you believe this to be the case?
MW: I meant that their big 3 off-season signings didn’t make them much better for 2009 than they were in 2008, but I had forgotten that they had just signed Andy Pettitte. I don’t think C.C. Sabathia will give them any more than Mike Mussina did last season, and I don’t think that A.J. Burnett will give them any more than Pettitte did last season but, of course, Pettitte is back now. I also don’t think that Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher in 2009 will provide more than Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu did in 2008. They key for the Yanks will be keeping Sabathia and Burnett healthy, and I believe that they’ll miss at least half the season between them, if not more, and having Chien-Ming Wang return to his health and production of 2006 and 2007.
- Jeremy MyersHey Mike,
You mentioned Joe Inglett as one of the bench players, and that’s pretty much what I figured he would be given that they seem to be full of starters, but do you think there’s any chance that after spring training he’ll land in a starting job or a platoon or something? He did hit around .300 last year and the jays can certainly use all the offense they can get.
MW: He’ll start if and when someone gets hurt, and with this team, that tends always to be an “when”. It’s a shame he can’t play shortstop, because if everyone is healthy, Inglett’s not a better offensive (or defensive) player than Hill, Rolen, Snider and Rios, the guys whose spots he’d be able to take.
- ScrimHi Mike,
from what I remember of the 80′s, the Jays did quite well by having a lot of scouting in the Dominican Republic. More teams eventually caught on.
Are there any relatively untapped markets now, like the DR used to be? A place where the Jays could be creative? Or has the game gone completely worldwide and dominated by the big spenders (see Japanese posting fees and Red Sox)?
But maybe if you could answer this question, you would be next in line for a GM position!
I am excited for the season. I think with a healthy team (always a hope) the Jays could be quite good!
Thanks!
MW: There’s India, but the Pirates got there first.
- RoryMW: I hate to tell you, but it’s luck. I also took the liberty of deleting the entire top of your post, when you cut and pasted my responses to other people into your comments to make it look as though I was responding to you. Let’s see how well Howell, Balfour and Wheeler do in 2009. Remember the great White Sox bullpen of 2005 in their Championship season with Dustin Hermanson, Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts. Poliite and Cotts each had a WHIP under 1.00 and combined to throw127 2/3 innings and Hermanson allowed 63 baserunners in 57 1/3 innings (1.099 WHIP) and had 34 saves. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. Also, for the love of the English language, please learn how to use an apostrophe.
Mike if building a good bullpen is luck and not talent evaluation please stop giving J.P. Riccardi Credit for the one he has put together here in Toronto. I disagree with you by the way I think its more talent evaluation then it is luck. Do you think putting together a good starting rotation is luck how about a good lineup is that just luck? What would be the difference?
MW: You have missed the point entirely. Building a great team isn’t luck. Having a team (or a part of a team, such as a bullpen) that performs far above any sort of production its members have ever put forth before or since – such as the White Sox’ pen in 2005 and, I believe, the Rays’ pen in 2008 – is luck.
- Even BradshawI saw on the last post someone was asking about Kevin Millar being a replacement player. Here is a wikipedia link that contains some players who crossed the picket lines during spring training in 1995, not sure how accurate it is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_replacement_players
I remember learning about this when I got curious over why Kerry Ligtenberg was left off of the Jay’s roster in an MLB video game one year. A few notables from this list: Pedro Borbon, Millar, Damian Miller, Brendan Donnelly, Ligtenberg, Frank Menechino and Shane Spencer.
I always found this really interesting. These guys were shut out from a lot because they crossed the picket lines, and rightfully so, but on the flip side, can you really blame them? For some of these guys it might have been their only shot to make the majors.
MW: And most, if not all, were told by their teams that they’d have a very,very difficult time finding future employment in baseball if they didn’t play.
- Mike MWhat is the value of Vernon Wells right now? Was the Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios trade last season a rumour? If it is true, who turned it down. Fianlly how will the Jays Roatation Hold up. I see Roy Halladay, and 4 questions after him?
MW: Wells’ value is reasonable, but not at the level of the contract he signed. The Lincecum/Rios thing was real, and the Giants walked away after about a week of vacillating. The Jays’ rotation is a bunch of question marks behind Halladay, but I see it as being Jesse Litsch, David Purcey, Matt Clement and Brett Cecil until Dustin McGowan comes back in mid-May.
- DarrylAMEN BROTHER!
This team isn’t in terrible shape…it’s about as good, maybe a little better then it was a year ago. Sure we lost AJ, but at this point last off-season no one knew that AJ was going to have a great year. No delusions of grandeur here, it might not be their best season, but lets have some fun watching this team.
J
MW: I think it will be fun, too. That said, I don’t think the team is as good as it was last year, never mind a little better. Of coure, they’re due to have a few bounces go their way sooner or later.
- JayMike – Love your last paragraph.
I recently went to a Jays function where Jerry Howarth and Cito Gaston were speaking. It was a Q&A for FLEX PACK ticket buyers.
The best part about the late Tom Cheek and Jerry Howarth were their stories.
If you want, go to YouTube and type “kanjikarim”. There are four videos that i think u and your readers will enjoy!
Thanks and have a great day!
kk
- karim kanjiSorry about the confusion between U and Bullard!
Maybe u should just show up in a tux and say “I thought the radio ad said Wilner!?”
have an awesome day!
kk
- karim kanjiTrade Bosh.
MW: For Manny Ramirez.
- Joe N.Mike, thanks for this last post. Hopefully your faithful readers will take heed. My 5 year old is already talking about days at the park…we’re almost there! There are less than two weeks to go and there are still a lot of major leaguers out without deals. Do you think JP might have something up his sleeve to get us optimistic, if not excited?
MW: Nope. But the prospect of seeing Snider and Lind, Purcey and Cecil and a healthy Vernon Wells, Scott Rolen and Aaron Hill should get you excited.
- Chris - Kitchenerthank god.
- Markhey Mike;
Agree the signings are moot, but if they can help the team for minimal cost why not, need a strong bench anyway;(but what about adams or buck coats?) hopefully Riccardi can find some bargins in the tough market, byrd or pedro anyone? great blog mike, keep ip the good work.
MW: I’d take Pedro in a heartbeat, but I’d rather see Purcey, Cecil and/or Richmond get a shot than sign Byrd to more money than the three of them combined will make.
- robert.sThat’s cool Mike. No need to respond to every comment, crazy or not. Maybe if you only reply to the intelligent posts that aren’t repeating something that you’ve already covered ad nauseum, then you might get more worthwhile discussion here. After all, I think the repetitive problem posters get off on your replies to them…
MW: Maybe, but if I don’t say anything then people might think I agree with them!
- MontyWilner sucks and Overbay should be fired
MW: See? This guy gets it.
- GrantMike, here are the reasons that I am looking forward to the upcoming season:
1. Coaching Staff- I am looking forward to see what Cito and Tenace can do for this team while working with them for the whole year. Also, I believe we have the best pitching coach in the league (Ansberg) and the best bullpen coach in the league (Walton). These two have proved that they can work with pretty much any pitching staff. I also like the pitching coach in AAA. Both Marcum and Litsch gave him credit for working through their pitching issues and I hope the Jays keep him around for a while.
2. Youngsters- I am really looking forward to being able to see Adam Lind, Travis Snider, David Purcey, and maybe even a guy like Brett Cecil. They will have rough spots but it will be fun to watch them develop.
3. Players coming back- I’m looking forward to seeing Vernon Wells come back after his injury plagued year. Rolen changed his batting stance and it is much easier on his shoulder now so he should be fun to watch. Aaron Hill will be back making outstanding plays in the outfield. And Overbay’s hand should be back to full strength.
4. Exciting baseball!- I love watching the Jays! We have the best pitcher in the league (Halliday) who is a joy to watch. It’s tons of fun to watch the highlight reel plays that Wells, Rios, Rolen, JOnny Mac, and Hill come up with. And it’s baseball, the most exciting game in the world!
I’m looking forward to this season and I am expecting another exciting AND competitive year from Canada’s baseball team!
MW: The AAA pitching coach is Rick Langford, just so he gets his due, and I assume you’re referring to Hill’s great range going back when you talk about him making outstanding plays in the outfield.
- LoganMike
Shifting gears a bit, I would like to get your opinion regarding team Canada and the upcoming WBC. No Dempster, Harden, and Bedard; Francis is a question mark. Is the pictching good enough? 8 catchers listed, and only 7 infielders, why? Who would be the middle infield? Where would Votto play? Is this the year we advance to the second round? Appreciate your insight.
MW: Remember, you’re only looking at the preliminary roster, which is why those catcher and infielder numbers are so unbalanced. Most of the catchers won’t make it, almost all the infielders will. I don’t think the starting pitching is good enough to get Canada into the second round, but the line-up is formidable, so you never know. They really only have to score one upset win, so long as it’s at the right time (either the game against Venezuela or the second game against the U.S., depending how it all shakes out), in order to get to Miami. As for Votto, he’ll either play a corner outfield spot with Matt Stairs DHing, or vice-versa.
- Jason WMike,
Here here! Judging by a lot of the comments left on your blog, I wonder why some of these people even watch they Jays since they seem to hate them so much.
I also agree that the Bautista contract is odd. I saw nothing last year that justifies a $2.4 million contract and cannot imagine him being any better this year. Money poorly spent? I think so.
I am not opposed to Millar as another low-risk (potential) sign, and I have heard he is great in the clubhouse. Naturally, I cannot confirm or deny this.
Actually, I think the Jays will be just fine in ‘09. Bring on the youth movement!!
Do you agree?
MW: I do. Except I think you meant “hear hear” – thanks!
- DarrenHi Mike,
any word on Aaron Hill’s condition? Will he be ready for spring training?
Also, how are sales going for the WBC? It’d be great to have a full house…
PS – love your casual use of “mind-bottling” :)
MW: Aaron Hill is apparently completely healthy, though we’ll find out for sure in a couple of weeks, and I haven’t got a clue on the WBC sales.
- RobHey Mike,
Good point about Jose Bautista . . . $2.4 million on a bench player, maybe it’s insurance for Scott Rolen’s questionable health.
However, I have to disagree with your assessment of the Millar situation (and this isn’t just being negative and I won’t take it to another blog).
The Blue Jays are entering the season with the 30th-or-so best first baseman in major league baseball (according to fantasy stats etc.). So why not add Millar if there’s little risk?
If it’s OK in your view to take a gamble on washed-up has-beens like Clement and Maroth, why is it not OK to take a gamble on a 20-homer guy with a winning past? Is the Jays lineup that rock solid that the 30th most productive first baseman in the game should feel comfortable as an everyday starter?
MW: Remember that fantasy stats tend just to be the “big 3″ and stolen bases, and that’s not where Lyle Overbay’s value lies. There’s no question that he’s better than Millar. Overbay should start against every right-handed pitcher the Jays face, and hardly any lefties.
- Ken PaganHey Mike,
Thanks for the info on Eric Thames. Very good news and look forward to seeing how his bat plays in pro ball. Can’t agree with you more on the Bautista situation. Two quick questions:
Do you think Snider should start the season with the Jays, or do you think the Jays would be better served keeping him down a bit longer and signing an outfield/DH?
The following players are all guys I’d enjoy us signing for various reasons. Can you rank them in your order of preference? Here is mine…
1. Ken Griffey Jr. – watch some replays of his from last year… the sweet swing is still there. Some time at DH would do his legs well. If he has a rebound season, it could have a slight impact on attendance.
2. Nomar Garciaparra – starting shortstop. If/when he gets injured, we still have Scoots, so we’d be in the same position anyway. Scoots can take Bautista’s util role in the meantime. 163 AB, 8 HR and only 11 k’s… Nomar still has contact and power in that fragile body and Dodger fans said he defense was actually quite decent.
3. Moises Alou – If we kept him at DH he could quite easily be one of our better hitters.
4. Richie Sexson – Inglett has to be first in line to give Rolen days off. If we want a 1st base backup who can hit for power and hit lefties, is Sexson not both a better and cheaper option than Bautista?
MW: The plan seems definitely to be for Snider to make the team and play everyday, and I think I’d rather see that than signing an aging DH-type for a year or two. Of your four, I think Alou makes the most sense to be a platoon DH with Adam Lind, or a platoon DH with Overbay (Lind plays first that way). Sexson is a better and cheaper option than Bautista, but Bautista can play all over the field and Sexson can’t. Nomar can’t stay healthy, and the Jays don’t need another one of those. Junior would be a lot of fun to have, but he takes at-bats away from either Snider or Lind, which is a long-term mistake – also, I don’t believe he’d have any effect on the attendance.
- JohnI just want to thank you for this feature. I appreciate your comment section and the time and dedication you put into it. I have only asked a handful of (brilliant) questions and you have answered them diligently and thoughtfully.
MW: Thank you!
- GozerThe point about greenies and their commonplace use in the major leagues the past five decades . . . why do Carl Yastrzemski and Johnny Bench get a free pass to the Hall of Fame based on their playing record, while Mark McGwire is held up and judged only by an off-field performance on March 17, 2005, in which he admitted nothing?
It’s OK for every player in the last 50 years to grab a handful of amphetamines before taking the field . . . it’s OK for Mike Schmidt and George Brett to use performance-enhancers, but not Mark McGwire.
How come Schmidt or Brett never had to go before Congress and get grilled on national television about performance-enhancing drugs? If McGwire is kept out of the Hall because of that, then every potential Hall of Famer should have to be dragged through the same process.
MW: Astonishingly, I couldn’t agree with you more. You’re the most confusing commenter I have on this thing.
- Ken PaganHey Mike I’m almost scared to post anything in case i’m irrantional & unreasonable
:-)
Actually, I love the fact that both you and Howard Berger for the Leafs, get your back up a bit and are willing to allow a bit of constructive debate, although Howard is a bit more openly critical of his own charge, when warranted.
I think that most people are more forgiving of an athlete staying alert or topping the energy level up through “Red Bull or cofees” than if the alternative is uppers or speed.
The fact that it was common place and executives simply turned the other way if it didn’t become an obvious problem seems of little consolation to fans who want to pretend that their heroes are if nothing else, completely clean.
Perhaps if you didn’t know that “pretty much every player in the major league was on speed” you would understand the consternation.
Off topic, did you see Jose Canseco beating up Danny (Partridge Family) Bonaduce in some celebbrity boxing match the other week? Jose has a complete body tatoo and has swelled up like Fluffy the marshmallow boy. He destroyed little Danny fwiw.
Come to think of it, with Jose and Bonaduce’s drug habit past, perhaps it’s not off topic at all….
Cheers.
MW: I think the operative word there was “pretend”.
- GaryHi Mike
I am optimistic about this season. I know there is all this talk of no pitching, but in all fairness its two members of the best pitching staff in baseball and Dustin for a month. Janssen has plenty of potential. Last we saw he was in the conversation for one of the best stoppers. Granted that’s not the rotation, he did start for the Jays with moderate success.
The bullpen is the same and all great. Specially Snake Face. Though League could show up for a full season and show why he should be the closer on this team. BJ has shown he can do it over the years. Lastly Accardo is still around with his 30 saves of 07.
As for hitting. Yeah they were terrible last year. If they just play to their abilities, as I recall the 2006 club finished among the best in baseball and lead up until the all-star break. Add a more experienced Lind, Snider and Inglett to the mix, that’s not terrible either. I rather have them three then an over rated Reed Johnson (Yeah I said it, he is platoon player at best), a half retired/half injured Big Frank and pick any of the following Eckstien, Mench, Wilkerson. Maybe its harsh to call out Eckstien and his MVP vs one of those youngsters by comparison. But he didn’t light things up at all.
My question to you Mike. Please Tell me WHY is it the end of the world and 09 is a write off? What makes them such a terrible team? I get that the Yanks and the rest have better clubs then last year but they still need to go out and win on the field. Detroit had a “better” team then the last year and didn’t make the playoffs.
On an Eck side note I think he has a miss cased career. He not a great leadoff man, the number 2 hole, otherwise 7,8,9 seems more right for him. That and his woeful arm has no business at short. That’s what second base is for. Is this a fair assessment or am I out to lunch on this?
Thanks Mike. Enjoy the rest of the break.
Jonesing for opening day!
MW: I think you’re right on Eckstein, assuming you meant “he’s been miscast in his career”. 2009 is the end of the world to a lot of fans because A.J. Burnett is gone, Shaun Marcum is out, Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen are trying to recover from serious injuries and the team didn’t hit last year.
- SamMike, great points. I agree its a shame since with todays economy a guy like Adam Dunn may slip to around 6-7 million a year that we are paying bautista 2.5. oh well, not like dunn was coming anyways for obvious reasons. My point is that with these bargains, a free agent arm is still available and I dont understand why they dont try to get one. Garland would have been great, or even sheets at a discount. This team is going to be good because of the bullpen, and the offense is the same minus big farnk that was supposed to get us to the playoffs last year? i think if the jays can get anything out of their young arms(which is a big question) they could really suprise much in the same way the rays did last year….
MW: I think they could, too. I wonder what Sheets is asking for because if it’s reasonable, I would love the Jays to get in on him.
- DanHi Mike,
I agree with you that the minor league signings are “not worth the wringing of hands”. I do, however have a question regarding Millar: if he does accept the Jays offer is the only way he gets called up an injury to Bautista or is there another scenario in which we could see him with the major league club?
Thank you sir.
MW: An injury to Overbay, to Rolen, to Snider or Lind, or he could beat out Bautista for the job.
- BennyBlueJayI agree with you on Bautista, and was surprised he was re-signed. I can’t come up with any reason that would make any sense at all.
As for the Millar thing, I doubt he’ll end up with the Jays at ST. He’s waiting for some kind of a major-league offer and seems to think he’ll get one.
The reason I brought up the early 80s team in an earlier post was that, very similar to this version, it had boatloads of talent and no follow-through. That turned around dramatically in ’85 with no apparent reason beyond the managerial change. And, no, I am not going to cite Cito Gaston as The Man That Made The Difference. For some reason everything that hadn’t clicked before started to click then. It’s remotely possible that might happen again. So I’m not quite sure why I got hit with the snarky stick and that ‘unicorns’ comment.
If you’re tired of hearing all the criticisms, you have no idea how tired a number of us are of making them. It would be just peachy if the Jays were steaming along, and the blog was full of ‘Didja see that play! Amazing!’ instead of ‘They hit into a dp. Again.’
I hope that changes shortly. But until it does, I reserve the right to criticize the team that I have supported faithfully for nearly 20 years.
MW: You have that right, but not to blind criticism regardless of what happens. At least, not here. And yes, it’s J.P.’s fault that they hit into so many double plays in such opportune situations, or at least John Gibbons’. If you’re tired of making the criticisms, how about you just sit back and enjoy watching the games? And I’m sure you meant ’89 with the Cito thing.
By the way, I hit you with the unicorn stick because you seemed to honestly believe that it might have been “belief in themselves” that turned the Jays around starting in 1985 (though I now think you may have meant ’89) as opposed to commitment to young players who got better and better with more big-league time and the right additions.
- reyesMike:
You’ll have to explain something to me….
Roger’s sells 145 Blue Jay games @ $150,000.00 each; with 17 more games to maybe sell.
Roger’s gets ??? for Radio fees, for Live-streaming fees, Satellite fees.
Average ticket price is ??? times 2+ Million Fans.
The average fan spends $20.00+ per game.
The average fan spends ??? per game.
….How on earth is this team losing money? Are the Powers-To-Be making sure this is a profitable year? Didn’t the Jays MAX OUT when buying US Funds at an advantage?
I think there’s enough for 2 years, but only if this year is a test ground for the minor league talent.
MW: There’s no apostrophe in Rogers. I don’t know what they get for the radio rights, but I think MLB keeps the money for live-streaming and satellite radio. You think there’s enough what for two years?
- Richard SpackmanKeep up the good work, Mike.
I feel your pain about the irrational, unreasonable comments – It seems like they take a turn for the worse in the offseason. As you say, there are in fact other blogs to comment in an irrational and unreasonable fashion, glad you’re trying to keep yours a little more high brow.
Now – you are the first person I’ve read projecting Barret to be the regular backup to Barajas. What is this based on? Thigpen still not being ready? J.P. Arencibia too green?
Thanks again,
R
MW: It’s based on the fact that Barrett will be the second catcher. Thigpen wasn’t good enough, at least not as a catcher, and Arencibia needs time in AAA.
- REANMike,
Provided that Dustin McGowan recovers as schedule, and begins pitching the way he’s capable of by the Mid Summer Classic, wouldn’t you say it would brighten the picture being painted of the Jay’s 09′ season?– Which is being more or less written off as a sacrifice year, as the Jays are only supposedly built to be contenders in 2010?
Something tells me that if 2 or 3 of the underachievers from 07-08(i.e. overbay, rolen and on another level wells and rios) can have at least reasonable years + a healthy and effective Dustin Mcgowan at the 80-game mark then the Jays could be a surpise team this year.
MW: I think they could, too.
- Anthony LIsn’t your paragraph on Bautista’s contract too negative for the blog ?
MW: Nope. Like I said, criticism is fine if it’s explained and rational.
- Chas CalzGood blog Mike. Good commments especailly regarding the paying of $2.4 Mil to Bautista, it is ridiculous. I think they should let him go and spend the 1 mil they would save on someone else. Millar on a minor league deal makes sense, how about Richie Sexson instead?
MW: The 1 mil they would save? Sexson is still out there, and if you’re looking for a lefty-masher DH or first baseman, he fits the bill nicely. I think the Jays are looking for bench help to do more than just that, though.
- Jeff G.Hi Mike, is Aaron Hill healthy going into spring training? If so is there any chance the Jays go with Inglett at second and Hill at short?
Hill definately has the arm to play short, Inglett put up decent numbers last year and it would be nice to see him play on a regular basis again and Scutaro is still a very good option coming off the bench as he can play multiple positions.
MW: Yes and no.
- jamieHey Mike:
I agree completely with your last paragraph, and in the spirit of adult blogversation I just want to ask you what you know of Aaron Hill’s health leading into Spring Training. That concussion seemed so innocent at the time, and yet proved serious enough to sideline him for the rest of the 2008 season. What are the chances that he takes a significant step backwards this year? (Here’s hoping he just keeps improving and is healthy.)
MW: See above.
- VavaMike…..Came upon my old Cleveland Indians program from my trip there in 1985…Typical crowds for the games I attended..8,000 and 12,000 in a venue that held almost 80,000…looking back, I was watching a young Joe Carter and Pat Tabler, 2 future Jays…Mike, did you ever visit the old Municipal Stadium?….. (Always wanted to see a Browns’ game there but I’m more of a hotdog guy, not dog biscuits)
MW: I went there during the September of its final season, saw a crazy game against the Twins.
- chris m.Mike, you’re awesome, just had to say that. I wish more people would take the stand you just did and try to approach the upcoming Jays season with some sort of rationality. It is fun to moan and wail, I guess, but a little perspective and clarity is a good thing.
- kitaI also am getting very sick of all the rending of garments. I do wish the Jays were doing some things differently this year – I think. However,there are a lot of factors about which I am unaware, in addition to the ones we know about.
As for the upcoming season, who knows? Around the Kita household we’re looking forward to it, planning to attend as many games as possible. There are some really good things about this season to look forward to that are being lost in all the wailing, like watching the young players learn to be big leaguers. It’s also interesting to see how the rotation is going to shake out. Plus, we get to watch Roy Halladay pitch, unless of course he gets so frustrated that he feels forced to load the whole Jays front office in a bus, drive them out into the wilderness, strand them and then walk back to civilization, talking to the Yankees and the Red Sox on his cell phone all the way. He is thinking about doing that, isn’t he?
It’s a long season, eight teams out of thirty make the post season. Good baseball can be good baseball without requiring playoff appearances, and some of the best ball you can see is from a team that is playing either over their heads or without playoff pressure, like Tampa Bay last season.
That is all, sorry about the rant. I also don’t really have a question so no need to post this if you don’t think it fits. Hope you’re well, amd thanks.
“Remember, the Japanese League team that posts a free agent doesn’t have to accept the highest bid, they pick the team they want to pick.”
Really? My understanding was that the Japanese team is told the amount of the highest bid and not who made it. If they accept the bid then they find out who made it. When Matsuzaka was posted I remember reading that the Red Sox bid $50MM and change because they thought the Yankees might bid exactly $50MM.
MW: That’s true about the Red Sox, they didn’t want to take any chances. But no, the team doesn’t have to accept the high bid.
- TorgenAny word on who they’ve contacted to take Beeston’s place? I’ve read the process likely won’t be complete till after spring training starts. Any chance he takes the job full-time again? Anyone you hope they approach?
Also, who would your candidates be for GM once the new boss fires JP?
What would you think of a women GM like Kim Ng?
MW: If Beeston wanted the full-time job, he’d already have it. Don’t be so sure that J.P. will be immediately fired by the new boss – after all, if the guy knows anything about baseball he might just see that Ricciardi has built a team that’s had the best pitching and defense in the game the last two years. Also, “women” is plural. The singular is “woman”.
- PaulThere was an interesting article that I read recently that hinted MLSE could be interested in the jays IF they were on sale. Do you think IF mlse were to take over that they would go after a Billy Beane type for GM as they did with their other sports teams?
MW: You think that Bryan Colangelo and Brian Burke are “Billy Beane types”? I don’t quite see it that way.
- TarakHi Mike,
- KimI for one am looking forward to the season. So it may not be a great season numbers wise, but then again we could be surprised. My Christmas gift from my husband was tickets to 4 different series at Roger’s Center. Two are for the Yankees,one for the Angels ,and one for the Red Sox. I love being at the ballpark and can’t wait for the season to start.
Hi Mike,
Do you think the the Jays management is trying to downplay expectations this year? I actually think they may be better this year then last. I mean, the majority of the of the offense is the same as last year and has a good chance of hitting the way they did in the second half of ’08 if not better. Plus, if Hill is healthy, hopefully he can hit for the same average as Inglett and add a little more Pop. The pitching is going to suffer, but can you see it going from top 5 to bottom 5???..I don’t. Do you think it’s probable for Doc, Litsch, Janssen and McGowan to all be above 500 and have Purcey (and others) at least close to 500 with the bulpen being shutdown again. It seems like this team is wrote-off by everyone and I don’t get it?? I also wanted your take on the Yankees signing Pettit for another year. It didn’t get a lot of attention but to me, that was huge for them….I’d be willing to bet he’ll pitch better than AJ.
MW: Pettitte is getting old, and last year may have been his last hurrah, but he’ll serve them decently, I think. I doubt he’ll pitch better than Burnett, though he’s likely to stay healthier. As for the expectations, ramping them so far down certainly won’t be good for the Jays’ bottom line, so I doubt they do it as a strategy. I do, however, think they’ll be a lot better than most people believe.
- SandyHI Mike
I totally agree with you about these so called Bluejay fans and there negativity. They act like were going to be the worst team in history this year and im glad your tired of it too. Anyways to my remark. I read an article today from buster olney about Mr. Griffey. In the article it talked about how last year his knees were done and that was the main reason for the power shortage. It also mentioned how good of shape hes got himself in this season and that he’s looking to prove something. So my question is do you think the Jays would try to scoop up a player like Griffey for a decent contract before spring training or will they be content with giving the kids all the playing time they can.
MW: They want to play the kids.
- Scott O'Donnell” If you just want to say that J.P. sucks and the team sucks and nobody should ever go to a baseball game in Toronto until he’s fired and Lyle Overbay is traded, then please take your act elsewhere.”
I don’t think the team sucks. If Arnsberg can work some magic with the starters and Cito gets a full year with the hitters I actually think 95 wins is possible. I am holding out faint hope that Overbay will be completely healed this year and have a bounce back year.
I plan to go to the baseball classic, we’re lucky to have it. I just don’t understand why they didnt lay off JP, damn it!
MW: You think they could win 95 games and you want the G.M. fired? How does that work?
- ProkopecMike, you’re the only blogger I’ve run across, on any subject, who insists on a standard of behaviour from his correspondents. Thank you! I was getting so tired of the ignorance and the litany of hate that I was ready to swear off reading blogs.
The other day, on another blog, one writer said he loathed J.P. What a word to use! On the MLB website just now another wrote that the Jays were not signing free agents because Rogers was six billion dollars in debt. A course in corporate financing 101 for that man. On the Star’s website the other week another wrote of the “no nothings” who run the Jays. People who live in glass houses shouldn’t, should they.
My 59th season of watching MLB is coming up. If I’ve learned one thing, it’s that you don’t declare the season over before spring training begins.
Jerry Lawton
MW: Think of those poor Tigers fans last year.
- jerry lawtonMike….Using the Blue Jay years (1977-present) as your guide, what’s your ALL AMERICAN LEAGUE infield? After some tough eliminations, I came down with: 1B-Don Mattingly
2B-Robbie Alomar
SS-Cal Ripken
3B-George Brett
C-Either “Pudge”( Fisk or Rodriguez)..If Thurman Munson hadn’t passed away in 1979, he could easily have been named here…What a ball player!…simply brilliant and taken away too early in life…Thanks Mike
MW: Don Mattingly? Really?
- chris m.Hi Mike, I’m not unwell but thanks for not asking.
Assuming Takahashi, Millar, & Bautista are not of much help to us in 2009. Do you think there is anything the Jays can do to be something other than “OK” this year as you predict?
As JP has tried in the past with bringing a bunch of long-shot pitchers into camp (which didn’t work but I think it doesn’t hurt to try) the aforementioned batters are not long-shots for greatness but medium-shots for mediocrity. What would you suggest to try to break the monotony of a so-so season?
MW: Watching the games. The Jays have been a very exciting team to watch for the last three years, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue.
- Wayne MurphyCan we still ask “how are you?” when we call into the post game show this season?
MW: It depends on how long it’s been since the last caller asked.
- RyanMike:
Is it possible that he Jays have some real genuine faith in Bautista? Is it possible that Cito was involved in this? Would the Manager of an MLB team ever have a say in who gets what kind of contract, or who stays and who goes?
Have you heard anything about McGowan? Is he progressing without problems? Is there a chance he is ready for opening day?
Did the Jays ever consider platooning Reed Johnson and Adam Lind? That would have been pretty good in 2008, but that’s the past. Just curious.
Thanks for your answers ahead of time, I know I asked a lot of questions.
MW: If they had real genuine faith in Bautista, they’d let him compete for a starting spot, and that’s not going to happen. I have heard that McGowan is ahead of schedule, but I have also heard that he won’t pitch in the bigs until mid-May, which are two things that contradict each other. Your third question is moot.
- andrew - kwJust would like to say THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, for speaking out against all the nay-sayers. If you think this team is going to suck, fine. But don’t ruin the season for the rest of us. I think this season has the potential to be a great one. All of the teams in the division have question marks, as do we.
Will Papi be able to hit? Will Beckett bounce back? Will the Yankee’s signing’s pay off? Will the Rays be able to continue with there success? Will the Orioles be able to have a winning season?
This season is full of question marks for every single team. Stop being pessimistic, and look on the bright side. Lind is looking at continuing his success. Janssen is hopefully going to be back in the rotation and be successful. Hill will be back. I personally think this season can be one which is full of great achievements, some rough spots, but in the end I think it will be a great season to watch.
MW: Will the Orioles have a winning season? Seriously?
- NickHey Mike, sorry if this has been asked recently as I haven’t read your blog in a while. What do you think of this lineup? I know lineup construction isn’t terribly important but it’s still fun.
1. Hill
2. Overbay (L)
3. Rios
4. Wells
5. Lind (L)
6. Rolen
7. Snider (L)
8. Barajas
9. Scutaro
Also, do you think Snider could start the first couple months in AAA in order to slow down his arbitration clock? Would be a shrewd move for sure but it could save us some money long-term. Thanks, Mike!
MW: I think that if Snider makes the team, he makes the team, and I don’t think J.P. cares about saving the team money in 2012. I don’t know about your line-up. I don’t think Hill gets on enough to lead off. It’s a tough line-up to piece together, at least until we see how Snider and Rolen are going to do.
- Matt SBelieve me Mike, I sympathize. There’s a groupthink going on that says if you DON’T think the Jays are a disaster of legendary proportions you are clearly a hopelessly naive homer.
I’ve been dissenting from the negativism all winter but to little effect..
Here’s my question – not to defend Bautista’s contract (albeit, I think it’s reasonable to suggest JP misread how much the market would drop when he tendered him) but do you think there’s still a possibility that one of the teams still desperate for help at 3B (Giants, Twins) might be willing to deal for him if they don’t get Crede?
I’m not desperate to be rid of Bautista. Sure he’s making too much but, like Hinske in his latter years, if you ignore the money, he can be useful and getting rid of him just to be getting rid of him (ala Hinske) serves no purpose between the lines.
MW: The thing is, when you’re crying poor as the Jays are, you can’t ignore the money. Given the salary, I doubt any team would be interested in dealing for him. Remember, the Jays got him on a waiver claim last season, so it wasn’t like there was a whole big whack of interest then.
- WillRainMichael of the Ballyard:
Ahh, a wonderful summer spent baked and posting on your blog, coming right up :)
Do you plan on reading Torre’s book? I have to admit, I bought it the first day it was out…
MW: I do plan on reading it, whenever the publisher decides to send it to me.
- JCLWell said, especially the last paragraph.
- Sean CourtHi Mike,
What kind of a salary would Millar make if he makes the team out of Spring Training assuming he accepts the Jays minor league offer? If he is cheaper than Bautista, I would go with him over Bautista in the interest of spending payroll sensibly.
There is no sense in getting all worked up about minor league signings. I am not sure why fans gets so frustrated. There is zero risk and at best, they add depth which has been so importnat given the Jays’ propensity for injuries in the past several years.
Frankly, I am lookign forward to the season. I am looking forward to the season. I am a baseball fan and I don’t need to see the team in the post season every season in order to watch them. I just love the Jays and enjoy watching baseball. I always remember my mom takign me to games in the late 70s , early 80′s and us sitting in the rightfield reserved benches at the old exhibition Stadium to watch some awful Jays teams (most notably from 1977 – 1981). We have a great bullpen and the potential for a decent offense if guys have bounce back years. As for the starters, who knows? I like Halladay and I love litsch. Fans always write him off but I love that kid’s guts. We shall see but I am gettign pumped as I do every year arounf February
MW: Glad to hear it. I don’t know what Millar will make if he makes the team (if he even accepts the Jays’ offer, which he hasn’t), but I guarantee it’ll be less than half of what Bautista will make.
- IanHi Mike
Thanks for reiterating the comments about the negative posts. While some are occasionally comical in their absurdity, it does get tiresome. I wonder if they are doing it as a joke or they are either stupid or crazy.
Anyway, I read a piece in the Biz of Baseball about Rogers’ ownership situation. Have you read the story? If so, do you think there is any truth that Rogers & MLSE could combine their sports properties into a single conglomerate? I think if it were to happen, it could be good for the Jays. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Leafs cash cow subsidized the Jays?
MW: I have read bits and pieces of it. I don’t think Rogers wants to get rid of the Jays at all, but if they do and MLSE picks them up, then it wouldn’t be bad, I don’t think.
- DanHi Mike,
Who’s your pick to win the 5th spot in the starting rotation? I’ll toss in my vote for Scott Richmond, but I guess that all depends on how the WBC and spring training goes.
MW: I think it’ll be Matt Clement, unless he winds up the 4th guy, in which case I think it’ll be Brett Cecil.
- IanMr. Wilner, I am going to be in Florida from February 13-February 21. The Jays do not have any games in this time period but I was wondering if it would be possible for me to watch the pitchers and catchers work out. Will I be able to see any Jays action if I go to Dunedin?
MW: I’m pretty sure that the Jays’ workouts at the Bobby Mattick Complex are open to the public. There’s even a hot dog vendor.
- LoganMike: I am glad you are calling the Blue Jays out on the Jose Bautista issue. Eric Hinske signed for only $1.5 million. The Pirates have made the Blue Jays look silly on this one.
I don’t get the amphetamine issue so please help me out. I see the pitchers drinking red bull (and Brad Arnsberg) before the games as well. How does this HELP performance? I would think pitching in a major league game would pump up natural adrenlaine. Too much of these stimulants (especially from Red Bull) make a person irritable, anxious, and nervous. A horrible mix for pitchers trying to keep a cool composure after missing a strike or giving up a cheap hit.
MW: You see the pitchers drinking Brad Arnsberg before the game? Having never pitched in a situation like big-league pitchers who have been “beaning up” for generations, I can’t tell you how it helps them, but enough of them have done it for long enough that they must think it does.
- Jim BBravo MIKE! I have to agree with you about the negativity. I read it everywhere.
I have to say, JP may not be the best GM but he had some tough luck what with the injuries and all.
As for the upcoming season, who would you as suggest we keep an eye on as a possibly surprise coming out of Spring Training?
I feel the low expectations, and going with the kids could be a blessing in disguise as we may find a diamond in the rough.
Cheers from Fredericton
David Somerville
MW: Keep your eye on Brett Cecil.
- David Somervillemichael,
it’s “mind bottling?”
referencing the comedic thespian will ferrell from blades of glory.
love it! well done my friend.
and gotta say it again. the material continuing to come out from this torre book is really surprising me.
based on his persona… just the last guy i expected it from i guess.
anyway, been giving it some thought. here’s a prediction i’m willing to make for 09 season…
as troy glaus sits out this year for who know how long exactly healing from his surgery, our man s. rolen is going to play 3b this yr. like only he can & as importantly have a fantastic yr. at the plate.
i see much improved health for our man at the hot corner this upcoming season.
definitely would like to reassess the merits of that trade after 09 is over if you don’t mind……..
later.
MW: It’s never good to call a trade a steal or a bust after one year.
- darrell bishopHi Mike,
Any idea if the Jays were at least in on the talks for Rich Hill who went to Balt for players to be named later? Surely the Jays could have offered that and uder Arnsberg, he could have been a solid addition to the starting rotation.
MW: No idea. If they weren’t, then it’s because they like their young lefties (Purcey, Cecil, the Romero brothers , Brad Mills) better.
- JoachimHey Mike, Love your blog.
Just a quick question about a cople porspects and their E.T.A.
When do you think David Cooper could be in the bigs? Is it a matter of him taking over for Overbay when his contract runs up? And is Cooper essentially a cheaper Overbay, skill-wise? I have written about what I see as a huge similarity between Brett Wallace and Cooper, and thought Cooper kind of got shafted a bit by Keith Law in his top 100.
And 2nd question, do you think, from what you’ve seen (if anything) that Brad Emaus can be a solid regular for the Jays down the road?
Thanks A Lot Mike, and keep up the excellent work.
Can’t wait for Jays Talk after games this year.
MW: Thanks. I have never seen either Cooper or Emaus play, and I doubt either one will be in the bigs before 2011, if that.
- JarrettHey Mike,
Just wanted to say that I am a big fan of yours and the BlueJays.
I completely agree with you regarding the negative and irratioal comments from so-called fans. The beauty of sports is you never know what will happen. Who will step on the Jays and who may tank on other AL East teams. I have been going to Jays games since I was a kid, I am 32 now. That means I saw great winning teams for about half my life and some not so good teams for the last 15 years. But I still go not only because I am a fan of the Jays but a fan of baseball. I’m not sure where peoples heads are when they are constantly negative. Find another hobby!!!!!
- NickPlease excuse my spelling above, writing this quickly at work.
MW: It wasn’t that bad.
- NickHi Mike,
People like to vent about the team and like it or not, this isn’t a bad place to do it….or was.
I can appreciate you’re tired of the relentless negativity but what’s considered
‘constructive’ and what isn’t is entirely subjective. Sure, weed out the chronic whiners but remember, one person’s constructive comment is another’s useless rant.
marc
MW: I don’t agree with that last statement.
- marcGood article Mike. I can sort of see some negativity slipping into your commentary, but I guess that’s sort of understandable. The current state of the Blue Jays is what it is. Not good. Not inspiring. And certainly not rational or reasonable, as you expect your responders to be. Whatever happened to the hot-shot young GM that was going to make such a difference to this franchise, and on a low payroll yet. I think he slunk off to Tampa Bay or Arizona or Milwaukee and left an impostor in his place. And now Kansas City is getting their ducks in order and will soon have a better team than Toronto. Geez.
On a brighter note it will be fun to see three of the best teams in baseball playing regularly against Toronto this season. Fifty-seven games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. that will be a treat. A Tampa Bay – Milwaukee World Series would be a breath of fresh air for the game. But a Red Sox – Cubs World Series would be a real classic.
MW: Don’t expect either Tampa Bay or Milwaukee to contend for a playoff spot this season.
- KenHey MIke,
Now I am wondering why the Jays signed a 40 year old reliver. I just dont see the point of it. You said he will “not going to crack the best bullpen in baseball” aka The Jays so im just wondering whats the reasoning behind this signing.
I also disagree with the money that Baustia is making it is ridiculas.
Thanks Alot
MW: The reasoning behind the signing is that he might be good enough to play and it doesn’t cost them anything to find out. Why wouldn’t you do that in those circumstances?
- PaulAnother question – is it possible that Sandy Alderson is the CEO Beeston is waiting for?
MW: It’s possible.
- WillRainNice to see a post again…I’m really dissappointed by the lack of moves by the Jays, and them basically conceding the season, and hoping to rebuild for next year. I was hoping for a miracle and the Jays going after Manny. I know I would buy season tickets if I could see Manny every game. Even if they don’t get Manny, Abreau is still available, so is Griff (as we can’t get Dunn due to J.P.)! Don’t you think at this point, to give the fans some hope for this year they should sign a low price, big name veteran?
MW: Nope, because I’d rather see whether or not Lind and Snider can do the job. Now, if they trade Overbay and move Lind to first, then I’m all for signing Abreu or Griffey to a one-plus contract.
- RoHi Mike,
Love your blogs. Are there any more “bargain bin” (i.e. low risk) free agents out there that you would like to see the Jays take a chance with?
MW: I still like Moises Alou and Daryle Ward. I also like Rich Aurilia for the Bautista job and Chuck James to throw into the starting mix. Does Pedro count as a “bargain bin” guy?
- MarkHey Mike, since Orlando Cabrera has been on the free market so long would his price have dropped? I think the Jays should at least try to get him cheap. I mean if they were willing throw cash at Burnett why not use some of that cash for Cabrera? I really don’t understand why after Burnett didn’t sign the HUGE contract offered by the Jays, the Jays suddenly stopped wanting to spend cash.
Thanks for reading,
Kevin
MW: They don’t want to give up the first-round pick for Cabrera.
- KevinDo you think the Jays could be sold by Rogers sometime during the season?
Heres a link from DJF
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2922:what-is-the-future-of-the-blue-jays-and-rogers-cable&catid=67:pete-toms&Itemid=155
MW: No, I don’t. And if you do read the article, see the Tao of Stieb’s very well-written answer.
- chrisHey Mike,
Kind of along the same lines as the discussion about Bautista/Millar for RH 1st baseman/backup infielder/jack of all trades, what about Nomar instead? The 2.4M for Bautista makes no sense like you said – cutting him for 400K… There’s no way Nomar would cost even 2M, he’s still a superior hitter despite his injury-proneness.
MW: Nomar is way too injury-prone and too poor a defender.
- SSMike,
I asked you this question back in December, but I never saw your answer, if you supplied one . . .
Out here in Kingston, we had no Jays games on radio last season. Who can I write to in ythe Jays’ marketing office (or wherever) to ask the team to PLEASE find an affiliate here? Thanks.
Only another week or so till spring training. :-)
MW: I did answer that – it’s not the Jays, it’s your local radio station. They’re the ones you have to get on.
- Ken in KingstonMike; with so many minor league signings, which one does your guy tell you will make the team.
MW: My guy? I don’t have a guy. I expect that Michael Barrett and Matt Clement will be the only minor-league invite guys to make the team out of Spring Training.
- AnthonyHey Mike,
Now we can finally get down to some serious Blue Jays’ discussion.
Two weeks and counting…
- CameronHey Mike
I see that many people are angry at Overbay’s performance and want him traded. What do you think that the Jays would want in return for him and what do you think other teams would be willing to offer?
MW: I don’t think Overbay has much trade value right now, considering his production over the last two years and his contract. Also, considering those two things, trading him now would probably bring in the least possible return, so the Jays are far better off keeping him.
- JamesStupid me-I thought a blog was where anyone could state their opinion as long as it wasn’t libelous, racist, etc. However, Mr. Wilner now dictates that only “rational reasonable comments are welcome”! I could have sworn that Canada is a democracy where people are allowed to speak their minds but maybe that only applies in certain circumstances. Lighten up Mr. Wilner, opinions are just opinions, they are neither right nor wrong. If you don’t want to hear everyones thoughts, then maybe you should just shut down the blog.
On the other hand, maybe the majority of fans in Toronto are just plain fed up with the mediocre baseball product being fielded year after year (as in no play-offs since 1993) Regardless of who is responsible for this pathetic performance, if ownership is not prepared to do what is necessary to field a play-off team, then sell the team to another city as I for one would rather have no team than one that finishes third, fourth or fifth year after year after year. I guess that makes me a bad “fan” but this city has enough losers in The Maple Leafs, The Raptors, The Argonauts, The Rock and Toronto FC. How one city could be saddled with so many non-competitive sport teams is mind boggling!!!
MW: Canada is, in fact, a democracy – and the greatest country in the world. Just as you have the right to speak your mind, I have the right not to post it. If you’re unhappy about that, you have the right to start your own blog where you may write anything you want. Also, I wouldn’t call you a bad fan for saying you’d prefer not to have a team at all than a consistent second division one. I would call you “not a sports fan”.
- KENMW: You think they could win 95 games and you want the G.M. fired? How does that work?
Ha, ha thats funny. I guess I should have mentioned that during the first week of February I usually think the Jays are good for 115 wins, so my delusional hope of 95 is a total downer for me.
But seriously JP’s reversed himself on everyhting he used to stand for begining with only drafting college players and now culminating with beefing up the scouting staff and not relying on the number checkers anymore. So lets lay him off, replace him with Lecava and save some cash.
I know wed still have to pay him but I bet wed save close to a million on imminent, typical JP signings such as Kurt Bevaqua, Walt Terrell and some other Hiroshima Carp never has been.
Have you seen The Wrestler yet….JP reminds me of Randy the Ram
MW: This is EXACTLY the type of comment I was trying to stop with that last paragraph.
- ProkopecI am looking to start up (or join an existing) keeper fantasy baseball pool. I have looked online for postings of existing pools in the GTA, to no avail. If anyone out there is willing to start up a keeper fantasy pool, or is loking to add a new member to an existing one, simply reply to this post.
Mike, thanks for providing the space on your blog for this post, and looking forward to baseball season once again.
MW: Seems my comments section has become a classified section, but I’m happy to help baseball fans, ummm, hook up – as it were.
- Dom from WoodbridgeI meant to type that I see the Blue Jays pitchers and Brad Arnsberg drinking Red Bull before the games. The effects of that type of stimulant gives people a rush in the short run while making them irritable and nervous in the long run. Not great for a pitcher who needs composure over emotion.
MW: Years of history would disagree.
- Jim BMW: Remember that fantasy stats tend just to be the “big 3″ and stolen bases, and that’s not where Lyle Overbay’s value lies.
Hey Mike,
So if Lyle Overbay stole 15 bases, his fantasy value would skyrocket?
Those 35 first basemen rated ahead of him steal bases?
The fact is, fantasy rankings do take into consideration slugging and on-base .pct. Lyle Overbay simply isn’t among the top 30 first basemen in the game. It’s that simple. You admit as much by stating he should not hit against lefties.
So if 400-or-so at-bats is the ceiling if he only bats against righties, can Overbay reach Cito’s expectations of 20-25 home runs?
MW: I doubt very much that fantasy rankings take those things into consideration when most fantasy pools don’t have walks, doubles or triples as categories. How do I admit he’s not a top-30 first baseman by saying he has to be platooned? Lots of first basemen should be platooned, but aren’t.
- Ken PaganI didn’t originally get my information about the posting system from Wikipedia, but their article on the subject (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system) agrees with what I had heard to be the case–the Japanese team only hears the amount of the high bid, not who it’s from, and if they reject it then they don’t see any of the other bids and they keep the player for at least another year.
MW: Hmmm, I’ll have to go back to my sources, but if the Wikis are right, I stand corrected.
- TorgenMW: You have that right, but not to blind criticism regardless of what happens. At least, not here.
Just a second, when have I ever given you a ‘blind criticism’? When I’ve complained about Ricciardi, I have given you polite chapter and verse on those complaints and you know that well. I’ve also said on numerous occasions that he has a good eye for pitching and has drafted fairly well.
As for ‘belief’, well it’s as good a way as any to galvanize a team. And this team is as short on belief as it is on offense and pitching this year. If Rios really believed in his own abilities, I think he’d be a much better player. As for ‘sitting back and enjoying the games’, I find it much easier to enjoy the game when my team isn’t finding creative ways to lose it. If they get beat fair and square, well ok. But last year’s bunch beat themselves over and over again.
MW: They still won more often than they lost but yes, they were a frustrating team to watch. I guess what I call your blind criticisms aren’t blind to you, but some are based on a standard of behaviour that doesn’t exist in the real world, like the Bart Given thing.
- isabella reyesMW: You have missed the point entirely. Building a great team isn’t luck. Having a team (or a part of a team, such as a bullpen) that performs far above any sort of production its members have ever put forth before or since – such as the White Sox’ pen in 2005 and, I believe, the Rays’ pen in 2008 – is luck
Mike I don’t know how you could have this opinion? Baseball teams have scouts for a reason don’t they? and you should stop giving J.P. Credit for his bullpen then because I don’t see anything Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson did in their past to indicate this kind of success I guess J.P. has an awful offence, an awful starting rotation and his bullpen was luck! why is he still around?
MW: Again, his teams have had the best pitching and defense in the major leagues for the last two years. That’s actually quite a significant achievement. Also, Downs and Tallet have both done it more than once for the Jays.
- Even BradshawHi Mike
I am a little late tothis party but I want to thank you for your well thought out and meaningful blogs. I also agree there needs to be an idiot filter applied to many comments here.
I think that the Jays this year may be be the surprise team. With Cito et al as the hitting oriented coaching staff and as a result if Lyle, Aaron, Vernon and Alex return to their 06 performances and no reason to not expect Travis, Adam and Scott to do well. We have a powerful offence.
We had the best BP in the majors and no reason to not expect another good year. The rotation may well surprise with Cecil and Purcey and we know what Doc can do and Jessie is coming into his own. I know I am a loyal fan and want our team to do well but I still think the Jays can be excellent and contend this year. As usual, I look forward to your analysis
Keep up the good work
MW: Thanks. I like that you’re on a first-name basis with these guys.
- Richard from ARMike
I am excited this season for two reasons: 1) Reading your blog every day and b) Jays talk. Mike, you are my hero and I think you do the best job in the studio.
For all I care the JAys can have a 60 win season or a 130 win season. As long as I can listen to the Jays talk on an almost nightly basis I’m happy
MW: Thanks.
- CarlosWell I think there is a difference between being negative and being critical..
If your negative your being disagreeable but if your critical your evaluating using judgment and fact..
If the Jays contend last season there wouldn’t be so many posts from fans that aren’t happy..We just want this team to perform up to expectations and it hasn’t for several seasons now..Is that negative ?
How many GM’s get to stay on this long fielding underacheiving teams?..Believe me, I don’t loose sleep if the Jays don’t win but it would be much more exciting for the fans if they actually competed for something once and awhile..Am I asking for too much?
I supported J.P for the first 5 seasons but his time is up now..
He inherited a team with a No. Pitcher (Halladay), A power hitter (Delgado) and many good prospects in: McGowan, Escobar, Rios, Wells and even Chris Carpenter..He didn’t inherit a team destitute of talent..He was supposed to build an exciting young team..
OK he had to cut payroll..So we give him some time to deal with that..Say four years..Now he gets some dough to spend (so much for the youth movement) and the Jays have a decent season in 2006..They don’t compete for anything and finish 10 games out..
So J.P signs a 39 yr old (Thomas) and they still don’t compete..Now what?..Oh yea they had injuries..So lets give him one more year and in 2008 they lay an egg..Now he needs one more year because of payroll issues..Now we should wait until 2010..Like I asked you before..How many more years does he need?
MW: Look at what this team actually did in 2008. There’s no way an objective observer could say it laid an egg.
- gumpIs it true that they DFA’d Thigpen?(sorry about spelling)
Snider had a last year had a huge average on batted ball in play, which isn’t sustainable, what do you see as a reasonable expectation for him?
MW: Yes, they DFA’d Thigpen – and you spelled it right – to make room for Brian Burres. Snider had 73 at-bats last year, so let’s hold off on all the small sample-size-ness. I think eventually he becomes a very good to elite hitter.
- The BGRBit of a silly question here, Mike, but what would Dunn think of the Jays now? Understandably he has a beef with JP, but the market seems to be cool on Dunn. At least, I haven’t read many stories about his suitors (maybe the Nationals? I can’t remember). Would he be willing to head to the Jays, given the lack of many better options?
Something peculiar happened with Barajas a couple of years ago, and it seems both he and JP were willing to look past it.
I like Dunn at first better than Overbay, who I have lost some faith in. Can Dunn even play first? I like the Jays’ outfield as is (Wells, Rios, Snider/Lind).
Thanks!
Rory
MW: Dunn can play first about as well as he plays the outfield – which is really, really not good. I like Dunn’s bat better than Overbay’s, too, but I don’t like Dunn with a glove on at all. The situation with Barajas was not nearly as bad as with Dunn, and I don’t think Dunn is desperate enough to swallow his pride and come here. That said, it’s pretty much moot, because I don’t think the Jays are interested.
- RoryThis team hasn’t made the playoffs in a decade and a half and you expect to read nothing but optimist comments? C’mon Mike, i know you tend to be a cock-eyed optimist but let the faithful vent. I’m not going to give JP or past management credit for mediocre results. I’m also not going to get overly excited about this season when i know the team will finish 4th, maybe 3rd while winning just over 50% of their games.
I will still root for the Jays, tune in to their games as often as possible, read your blog and visit the ballpark, especially when Doc is on the bump. I am also excited to watch the developement of Lind and Snider over the next few seasons. But please don’t peg me as irrational when i point out that JP has done a poor to average job. I only base my opinion on his results, which to this point, have not been good enough. JP is an average GM at best, and it will take an exceptional GM to navigate the club past the Yanks and the BoSox when you consider the monetary advantages those clubs have.
Thanks Mike,
MW: I’m not expecting to read nothing but optimistic comments, and if you think I said that then you completely missed my point.
- RICKMW: You have missed the point entirely. Having a team (or a part of a team, such as a bullpen) that performs far above any sort of production its members have ever put forth before or since – such as the White Sox’ pen in 2005 and, I believe, the Rays’ pen in 2008 – is luck.
Mike, please be a little objective and open your eyes. The Rays bullpen guys did not miraculously start pitching well out of nowhere. These guys were targeted because of the skills they possessed.
Howell was used exclusively as a starter in the first three seasons of his career. In those three seasons he had a K/BB ratio 136/74. In the first two innings of his games the ratio was 55/12. After the 2nd inning it was 81/62. The Rays picked up on this trend and made him a reliever. Result 92 K, 39 BB, and a 2.22 ERA. Only in a jealous rival’s mind is this luck. This is the proper way to evaluate and utilize baseball talent.
Balfour was an over-powering high strikeout guy before requiring surgery in 2004. He had 68 K in 43 IP in the minors in 2007 leading the Rays to deal for him in 2007, and he had 27 strikeouts in 22 IP for them, allowing only 1 HR. His 2008 performance may have been a surprise to you and probably JP (and thus termed lucky) but people who aren’t married to ERA knew this guy could pitch….and pitch he did.
Dan Wheeler is a much more simple case. He had a 2.21 ERA in 73 IP in 2005. He had a 2.52 ERA in 71 IP in 2006. He had an unlucky BABIP in 2007, causing his ERA to climb and he fell out of favour. The Rays were quick to pick up on this and signed him for 2008 and got a 3.12 ERA out of him. It is both ludicrous and inaccurate to say that he has never pitched at this level before.
MW: All of your arguments have merit, but let’s see how well these guys fare in attempting to duplicate their successes of last season. You could have made the same arguments for Politte, Cotts and Hermanson.
- KenMW: I think they could, too. I wonder what Sheets is asking for because if it’s reasonable, I would love the Jays to get in on him.
Well no one else is gonna sign him, so the Jays can welcome another surgically repaired arm in 2010.
MW: Now that he’s opting for surgery, yeah. He no longer has value since he’s a Type A free agent.
- KenThe reason I brought up the early 80s team in an earlier post was that, very similar to this version, it had boatloads of talent and no follow-through. That turned around dramatically in ‘85 with no apparent reason beyond the managerial change.
The Jays were 89-73 in both 1983 and 1984. The battled the Orioles well into September in 83 (until Tippy Martinez picked off three Blue Jay base runners in one extra inning) and might have won the East in 84 if the Tigers hadn’t started off 35-5.
MW: I think she meant 1989.
- KenHey Mike,
Thanks to your recommendation I’ve been reading the DJF blog and I enjoy it, though they don’t curse quite as much as you.
They had a link to an article which spoke about the team positioning themselves to be sold and that would explain why there is absolutely no movement this year in terms of free agents. Being a Rogers guy yourself it might be difficult for you to answer, but you have to admit this has been an odd offseason. In September they were talking about Manny, and now in February the Jays are the only team not to have signed anyone to a major league contract. At the least I would have thought they would trade BJ and use that money for a bat.
So, what do you think Mike? And how do you think the team would operate if it was owned by MLSE?
Thanks
MW: Circumstances have changed DRAMATICALLY since September, with the economy, the change in team presidents, the death of the owner and the Yankees spending spree, among others, so it’s not fair to compare now to then. I don’t believe Rogers intends to sell the Jays at all. If MLSE were to buy the team, I don’t think that would be a bad thing (assuming Rogers wanted out which, well, see above). They have started to hire good, proven executives and they spend to the cap on both the Leafs and Raptors.
- JeffMike….Nice job on Off The Record the other day. i wish there was more of you, but Radomski had most of the half hour. Mike, you’re used to talking baseball (good or bad aspects) but still it must be a little dicey talking about steroids and the act of cheating in the game. Do you find it a somewhat difficult subject to talk about with still a lot of speculation with certain players?
MW: Not at all, I just know that I can’t accuse anyone without rock-solid proof. I do believe, though, that the majority of major-leaguers were taking illegal performance-enhancers for most of the “steroid era” of, say, 1989-2004.
- chris m.I’m not sure I understand the argument that Nomar is too injury prone. Right now we have Scutaro at shortstop and Bautista backing up 1st base (possibly third too, although that should be Inglett). There are guys everywhere who can do what Bautista does (hit lefties for power, back up 1st base) on a minor league contract. If Nomar ever does get hurt at shortstop, then so what? Scutaro goes in and replaces him and we’re where we would have been in the first place. We’ll save 2 million cutting Bautista so the money really shouldn’t be a large issue.
As for Nomar’s defense, a first hand account provided by Dodger fans was overwhelmingly positive and the (limited) defensive stats from last season at SS back them up.
The upside is a 20HR shortstop who can play the position to about the same quality as Scutaro. The downside is he gets hurt, Scutaro goes back to shortstop, and we use a guy on a minor league contract like Ruiz (or someone better) to back up Overbay for a bit until Nomar gets back. He can be eased back at 1st/3rd/DH etc… I completely agree with you that Nomar likely would get injured at some point (although at some point you’d think he’d be due for a reasonably healthy year), but I just don’t see the downside. It might end up costing us a million dollars extra or so but Bautista is not that much better than guys like Millar that it isn’t worth the risk. We may not be able to convince Nomar to leave the West Coast is the only thing.
At the same time, if the Jays just moved Hill to shortstop I’d be even more satisfied. I don’t care if it only lasts two weeks though, I’d be a happy guy to see Nomar’s name as our shortstop instead of Scutaro’s, which is depressing to me, despite him being a real nice utility player.
I don’t expect to change your mind, just putting forth my argument, although I’m sure you have a good argument as well and I know where you are coming from.
MW: Nomar is a fine flier if you don’t expect anything, but in his last healthy season he hit .283/.328/.371, which isn’t much better than what Scoot did last year. He’s no longer a good defensive shortstop (I wish I had the plus/minus numbers), and a 20-homer guy? He’s done that once since 2003. I think you’re just remembering the old, great Nomar. He isn’t that player anymore.
- JohnMW: Don’t expect either Tampa Bay or Milwaukee to contend for a playoff spot this season.
You spent all of last season trashing the Rays, attributing their success to luck, and it looks like you’re starting off 2009 on the same path.
Wake up already. A team with Navarro, Pena, Bartlett, Longoria, Crawford, BJ Upton, Burrell, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine, Balfour, Howell, Wheeler, Bradford, & Nelson doesn’t need luck to do well.
If the Rays don’t make it, it won’t be because they don’t have a good team, but because they have to beat our the Yankees or the Red Sox.
Where have I heard that before :-)
MW: I’ll give you Navarro, maybe Pena, Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Shields and Garza.
- KenI’m just more frustrated than in hate mode.
I just wish JP would sign a mid level pitcher to boost the rotation. That’s all it would take to make me happy.
I feel essentially relying on youngsters to fill the void is a bad strategy. Cause you know someone is going to get hurt. It has happened every year.
Just one decent pitcher, that’s all I’m asking for so then we’d have Doc, Litsch, Janssen, New Guy, Purcey.
Cecil, Richmond, Burres in the minors or bullpen to be called on when someone goes down.
I don’t think that’s hating or being negative.
MW: You’re right, it’s not. But realistically, how much more is Paul Byrd going to give you for six weeks than Richmond or Cecil?
- couchetardI hear Ben Sheets is hurt bad and needs surgery? What are the chances that the Jays can give him a contract similar to the one they gave Adam Loewen and give Sheets a year to recover and have him pitch for us next year? Is this possible at all?
And speaking of Loewen, there was a really interesting article on him on bluejays.com and Russel Martin is comparing him to Justin Morneau. Have you seen Loewen hit at all? Do you think there is a legitamate chance that we could see him on the Jays in 2011?
MW: Sheets is still a Type A free agent, so signing him would require the Jays giving up their first-round draft pick. That’s not going to happen with 2009 a write-off for him. As for Loewen, I did the same story on the FAN two weeks ago that was on mlb.com the other day. Martin was effusive in his praise, to say the least, but it’s been a long time since Loewen has hit, and he’s never hit at the pro level, so I’m anxious to see how he does. I think that if he can hit, we could see him here in 2011, sure.
- LoganAny ideas as to the reasoning behind the obscene amount of bullpen stock piling JP has going on? My only thought is he’s gearing up for some minor wheeling and dealing in spring?
MW: I just think he likes good arms, and he knows that you can never have enough.
- ClintMike I see Vernon Wells is on the WBC roster for the US, is he expected to play and if so what kind of role?
MW: I don’t know yet.
- CoreyHey Mike,
Great insight as always!
Since you’re in the mood for talking baseball, I invite you to take a look at my website where I’ve created The Impact Stat and something called CH5.
I’d love to hear your thoughts (and anyone else’s)on them.
Thanks and I’m looking forward to my 2009 Toronto Blue Jays!
Aneez
- Aneez Kanji“If you want to criticize the Blue Jays AND HAVE SOMETHING CONSTRUCTIVE TO SAY, outstanding. If you just want to say that J.P. sucks and the team sucks and nobody should ever go to a baseball game in Toronto until he’s fired…”
Does that mean that Richard Griffin is no longer welcome to post in your comment section?
MW: He never has. He prefers to take his shots at me in print.
- mikeRuss Adams DFA’d. LOVE IT.
MW: And they said this day would never come.
- RenegadeSince you wouldn’t sign Dunn without moving Overbay would you consider signing Andruw Jones, who is good defensivley and has big bat potential, possibly using him as a DH.
Or do you see the Jays staying away from any names to avoid rasing expectations.
MW: I don’t know why anyone would want to go anywhere near Andruw Jones after his last two seasons.
- DMillarHey Mike!
Matt Bush was designated for assignment by the Padres yesterday. He’s only 22 years old and was the #1 overall pick in the 2004 First-Year Player Draft. What do you think about the Blue Jays taking a chance on him? They are signing a lot of players to minor league deals. Who knows what he could do if given some time? What’s the harm?
Here’s the link:
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090205&content_id=3803126&vkey=news_sd&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd
MW: He’s a failed shortstop who was converted to a pitcher after he couldn’t hit in the pros and who has been in trouble with the law on multiple occasions.
- SilvioI met jesse litsch and travis snider at a bar in TO last night. From reading fan reports and watching him over the course of the last month of the season, I got the impression hes a star slugger in the making.
But after meeting him, Im a little concerned. Hes kinda short and looks like hes in grade 11 (so do I). Is this a cause for concern? Im not trying to rip him, hes still a great player, but my hopes for him being that star player have somewhat diminished, as I cant see a guy of that stature being a franchise player.
Also, why the heck arent these guys in florida practicing? One more thing, Jesses the coolest athlete we have in T.O.
MW: Snider is 5’11″ and definitely babyfaced, and I can’t see what either of those things have to do with hitting a baseball. They were in town for the Conn Smythe Sports Celebrities Dinner, and I assume went right back to FLA the next day.
- jpHi Mike.
Should the Blue Jays not keep Snider down in AAA for the first part of the 2009 season so that he does not become a ‘Super 2″?
MW: He’s not likely at all to be a Super 2 in 2011 given the small amount of time he was on the roster in 2008, even if he plays the whole year in ’09.
- GeorgeHello Mike,
Just found your blog and I found it interesting … first time blogger here and not sure If I’m a fan of it yet or not. BUT it is February and spring training is only 2 weeks away and I’m dying for baseball chatter.
I’m totally up for a young gun squad this year with bounce back years from Wells (playing in the WBC will get him ready to go for April and not June see 2006) Rios and Roland and Overbay. I do have a concern with a kid as a DH … A DH is a very difficult for any player, it’s a totally different mentality than being in the field … I worry that any of the kids used as a DH will for an entire year will slip back and not jump forward in their development??
I am glad we jumped on the Japanese band wagon (even if he is 40) it may lead to greater exposure in Japan and future signings. Baby steps …
Anyways I’ll hear you soon enough on Jays Talk …
On a side note … I’m very disappointed opening day is at night … I always looked forward to calling in sick ..
Brian Wallace
MW: Yeah, I’m with you – Opening Day should be during the day. Not sure if you’re a fan of the blog or not yet?
- Brian WallaceMW: Snider is 5′11″ and definitely babyfaced, and I can’t see what either of those things have to do with hitting a baseball
He could sure hit a ball, but i was referring to his home run/slugging ability, based on my observation that he looks about 5’9 (and 15 yrs old). I told my friends that he and jesse were professional mlb players. They didnt believe me, for good reason.
MW: He’s not 5’9″, and he hits the ball HARD.
- jpMW: All of your arguments have merit, but let’s see how well these guys fare in attempting to duplicate their successes of last season. You could have made the same arguments for Politte, Cotts and Hermanson.
I know you think you’re right and once you make up your mind nothing will change it. But what is up with comparing the 2005 White Sox with the 2008 Rays.
The Rays are probably the best managed team in baseball. They were gradually working towards 2008 for about four seasons (as JP was supposedly doing here) quietly building up their talent level and ignoring the trashy and insulting comments from commentators like yourself.
This is a team that has a plan and understands how to evaluate talent which is a skill that is foreign to an amazing number of GM’s. A lot of them don’t even look at all the sabremetric information that is freely avialable.
And the Rays are not sitting on their laurels either…having replaced Hinske with Burrell, Jackson with Price, adding Bradford and Shouse to their bullpen, and now have Brignac ready to take over at SS if Bartlett falters or get hurt.
As much as you hate to admit it, there is no indication that the Rays were lucky last season. Longoria missed over 30 games, Baldelli essentially missed the whole season, Percival and Gomes both had disastrous seasons..but they still won the “tough” AL East and defeated the Red Sox in the ALCS. All of their moves and draft picks are well thought out and analyzed in meticulous detail. And they have a plan.
This type of team and management style is exactly what the fans in Toronto are wishing for…and kind of what JP promised when he first arrived. But unfortunately JP couldn’t analyze his way out of a paper bag preferring as The Baseball Think Factory says, “to run his team with the back of an envelope calculations, making decisions based on a seat of his pants planning and still using traditional baseball reasoning from the 50′s and 60′s. Glaus at $11 million per season for Hudson at $2.6 million and the $20 million Frank Thomas fiasco are the results of his style of management”
MW: We’re going to have to agree to disagree here (and you didn’t even mention the fact that Carl Crawford was injured for two months). There are LOTS of indications that the Rays were lucky last season, and if you don’t want to see that, that’s cool. But a disastrous season from Percival? A WHIP of 1.23 might not be incredible, but it’s FAR from disastrous.
- KenMike…There must be a lot of Hamlet fans on the blog because since your new guidelines for comments, the “slings and arrows of outrageous fortune” have waned slightly. Also, “my words fly up, my thoughts remain below, words without thoughts never to heaven go.” will hopefully have an effect. It can never hurt to have Shakespeare on your side.
- chris m.mike,
i understand your frustration with the ignorance/negativity, but how ’bout you direct some of that venom closer to your own nest, and get yourself on the bobcat’s show.
i’m listening right now (feb 6th) and he’s pasting JP for his signing of the 39yr old japanese pitcher, and all the callers are hitching to that wagon.
there’s no denying that mccowan (sp?) understands the business of sports, but when he starts talking about the on field/ice product of any sport, he proves to be an absolute idiot, who masks his ignorance with bold opinions, wrapped in beatifully constructed sentences.
if you want to fight against the uneducated negativity, i really hope you’ll consider getting yourself on to take him to task about some of his rants/ramblings.
i know you don’t like it when ppl rip your colleagues on your forum, but if you’re gonna call us out about this kind of thing, i think you should have the courage of conviction to start your crusade with the people that are paid to know better.
for the record, i agree with you on most issues, which is why i’d like to see you serve bobcat some of that humble pie you love serving your callers, so much.
MW: All my commenters and listeners are entitled to their opinions, and if McCown were to come on this site or call my show then I would correct any misstated facts that he presents. I don’t think he’s an idiot, and in fact, I think he’s the most entertaining host we have. The thing is, if he invites me to come onto his show, I can’t come on and attack him. He knows we disagree about a lot of things, which is probably why I’m hardly ever on Prime Time.
- Jay BMike…Manny Ramirez “turns down” 25 million. Not trying to sound like a martyr, but I remember going right from high school to work for 3 bucks an hour with a boss who timed your bathroom breaks. But it was worth it to make a little coin to be able to sit in the bleachers at the Ex. or some greys at the Gardens.. I’m sure a lot of people have similiar experiences. To quote Simon and Garfunkel..Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? Mike…Did free agency with Andy Messersmith and union leader Marvin Miller start the insanity?
MW: What makes you think Joe DiMaggio wouldn’t have held out for every penny he could have gotten if he hadn’t been an indentured servant because there was no union at the time?
- chris m.I don’t get the Overbay hate. Average wOBA for a first baseman is .361. From 2004-2006, Overbay’s wOBAs were .379, .371, and .384 respectively. He was an above average offensive first baseman with an above average glove, and he signed a team-friendly contract after 2006. You can’t judge the signing based on the broken-hand-depressed numbers unless you think the Oracle at Delphi told JP in no uncertain terms (which would be rare for the Oracle) that Overbay would break his hand and JP ignored her.
MW: The problem is that J.P. doesn’t have an oracle to consult, and it seems most of the fans out there believe he should.
- TorgenMike,
The term is “mind boggling,” not “mind-bottling.” It’s possible that you’re referencing a line froma a Will Ferrell movie that not a lot of people have seen. If that’s the case, you should stop that, because it makes you appear as goofy as the goofy movie chararcter. Will Ferrel is a comedian who gets paid to be goofy. You’re being goofy for free, which isn’t so funny. Especially when most people don’t get an inside joke that is only inside to you. Go Jays!
MW: Or, and this is just a shot in the dark, you should maybe want to grow a sense of humour.
- Evan WhiteMike,
Sorry dude, but it is your job to listen to my complaints. Your whining about it is tedious, as are your constant snide jabs at people who think it a polite greeting to ask you how you are.
I think it is perfectly rational for me to be insulted and demoralized by Rogers’ decision not to let J.P. spend the money A.J. walked away from. The organization leverages the Jays on Sportsnet just as the Yankees do with YES (albeit on a smaller scale). I fear that the second reign of Cito Gaston could be undermined by that decision, which would be criminal.
MW: Sorry, dude, but it’s not my job to listen to complaints. And there’s nothing wrong with asking how a person is if you’re actually interested in the answer – what I have a problem with is the 4th or 5th (or more) caller in a row to ask how I am after the question has been answered three or four times, or the caller who says “how are you” and then goes on to his comment/question without pausing for an answer.
- MarkMr Wilner,
I truly understand your comments. Most Toronto sports fans I talk to are almost always negative. They tell me “JP should be fired” but they truly don’t have an informed reason why. I mean it could be a lot worse. Look around the league people!
The Cubs haven’t won a world series in 100 years, the Texas Rangers almost always disappoint their fans year after year. The Kansas City Royals have had 1 winning season in 15 years. The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t had a winning season since the early 90s. There are several franchise’s that have been around longer than the Bluejays have yet to win a world series, in the Texas Rangers case…they haven’t even made an appearance in the world series and they’ve been around since the early 60s. And here in Toronto we’ve had 3 strait winning seasons and a team worth watching and paying a fraction of the cost of a Leaf game. We’ve had the best pitching in baseball for the last two years, not to mention a pretty good defensive team. No doubt in my mind Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, Scott Rolen may be the best defensive third baseball of my lifetime. Vernon is easily on of the best cf in all of baseball. This team also has a solid foundation of young talent in almost all positions. People, lay of the Jays and JP and enjoy what we have. THE LEAFS HAVE RUINED THIS CITY’S SPORTSFANS. It’s as if we would rather criticize and complain than just enjoy the pastime. We probably won’t make the
Playoffs or win the toughest division in baseball…but you never know. Remember the
Rays weren’t picked by anyone last year to do anything…right Mike.
Mike in London
MW: Actually, the Rays were kind of the sexy surprise pick of last year, but no one thought the Twins or White Sox would do anything, everyone had the Tigers in the playoffs and a lot of people had the Mariners and Rockies as well. By the way next time – PLEASE – at least throw a spell-check in there.
- MickeMike…By referring to Joe DiMaggio, I was talking about a time when money wasn’t everything,life was simpler. And even Paul Simon was blasted by Joe D. for using his name in the song, as Dimaggio was also Mr. Paranoia as well as Mr. Coffee. I guess DiMaggio would’ve squeezed every penny if he could..Even Babe Ruth, the so-called saviour of baseball after the 1919 Black Sox scandal, openly drank during prohibition and was proud of it…Ty Cobb, the greatest “gamer” of all by some historians, was very racist and even beat up a guy in a wheelchair, but that stuff gets overlooked because it was so long ago…There were characters in every era, just some are lionized over time and I guess Manny Ramirez will in the future.
- chris m.Wilner,
What’s your take on the article about A-Rod’s positive steriod test in 2003?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/02/07/alex-rodriguez-steroids/index.html?eref=T1
Do you think anyone cares anymore? Is this more a media chase then anything else?
BTW, do you realize that Carlos Delgado finished second to A-Rod in the MVP race in ’03? Not that it will happen, but shouldn’t King Carlos be awarded the MVP if the article is factual?
MW: I should hope people care, because they keep treating Barry Bonds like the anti-Christ. It’s time to wake up, people. As far as Delgado goes, of course he shouldn’t be awarded the MVP six years later – aside from the meaninglessness of the gesture, who knows WHO was clean?
- BobbyBang on Mike..I don’t think the Rays will compete this season either..They were very lucky last season…
Not only did the majority of their players have career years, the team itself didn’t really finish near the top in anything but HR..
They struck out 1224 times in 2008..Almost 8 times a game..They even hit less then Toronto..Tampa Bay just got some timely hitting last season and you can’t expect them to do that again..
Where do you think they will finish?..
Maybe if you jumped off the J.P wagon, Good o’Bob may start to agree with you a little more…
MW: I’m not on any wagon, I just say what I think is true. I will likely be picking the Rays for fourth this year, 78 wins or so, I think.
- gumpMW: I think she meant 1989.
I did. Thanks Mike.
MW: No problem.
- isabella reyesMichael of the Ballyard:
What was your first year GPA, if I may ask?
MW: I haven’t got the slightest idea. Nothing earth-shattering, though. I was a solid B to B+ student in university.
- JCLit’s funny how you mike are telling others to grow a sense of humour when you have absolutely none.
I was looking at the pictures of snider, adams, arencibia, etc and I was wondering has JP ever drafted a black player? but then again I think blacks only represent about 20% of mlb now so maybe it is justified.
MW: J.P. Ricciardi has never drafted a black player. And how about that shortstop of the future, Justin Jackson? Or Jonathan Baksh, an outfielder from Mississauga? Sorry, that’s all I could come up with in three seconds.
- roccomike, you know when you don’t have an oracle to consult the appropriate course of action is to not sign long term contracts so that you have an out if you totally mess up. we now have to wait 2 years for all these stupid contracts to expire but then the one good contract also expires.
MW: Overbay, Ryan, Rios and (probably) Hill weren’t stupid contracts. Wells’ looks bad, but may not in the future, and he could still use that opt-out. Burnett’s wasn’t bad, and Ricciardi didn’t sign Rolen to his, so who are we looking at?
- roccohey mike;
Can’t believe the jays already have given up on russ adams, he didn’t perform that badly when last called up, and he had some hr pop in his bat, something the jays sorrily need, dfa’d thigpen also, should have traded these guys? mike your thoughts, thanks for the exceptional blog.
MW: I appreciate the kind words, but seriously? I can’t believe Adams lasted as long as he did. Obviously, they wouldn’t have DFA’d anyone who had any trade value (they could still trade them, but now it’s with one hand tied behind their back).
- robert.sHi Mike,
How is the lefty Ricardo doing? Any chance he’ll come north? The team had a posse of young catchers as prospects…why grab another as a backup from Baltinore? None of the farmhands ready?
MW: You mean Ricky Romero? He has a chance to make the team, but it’s a very slim one. Likely he goes to Vegas to try to build off his strong second half last season. I don’t know to whom you’re referring with the back-up catcher from Baltimore comment.
- Jim from WoostockBy the way you still haven’t answered my question..How many more years does J.P Riccardi need to put this team into playoff contention?
MW: They should have been in playoff contention the last three years.
- gumpMike, it’s being reported that Bobby Abreu is going to sign for less than 3$ million. In what possible universe is Bautista worth 2.3$ when Abreu will get 3$? I really feel this is the worse thing JP has EVER done!
MW: Calm down. They can still release Bautista at the end of Spring Training and only have to pay him $400,000. It is ridiculous, though.
- RenegadeMike…Please help me with my quandary? For selfish reasons,I’m anxious to see Brett Cecil make the rotation, but the big picture is what’s important, although that’s sometimes an overused cliche. Every spring there’s a guy who turns heads, but regardless of huge spring numbers is pre-destined for the minors because the club has options. Mike….Is my “well intentioned selfishness” good or bad for this young hurler?
MW: If he pitches well enough to make the team, he’ll make the team.
- chris m.Mike,
I’m cautiously optimistic about the Jays this season because I have a weird feeling that if they sign a veteran bench player like Millar or Alou, they might be a team that either does very poorly or surprises. I know your predictions are for the Jays to finish around .500 but I think they’ll either be terrible 70-72 wins or surprise with 88-90 wins. The reason being that this is the first year in a while where they have a full compliment of proven/good coaches and manager. At the same time, they have no real pressure to compete for a playoff spot and with this Jays team unfortunately, we’ve seen they play their best baseball with no pressure and nothing on the line. The other reason why I think they might surprise is the hope that the Jays have had enough go against them the last few years that finally, the odds have to even out at some point. And I really hope the Jays just get buy out/release Bautista in ST. He was terrible defensively at 1B last season whenever he played and I’m not sure this team really needs another .235-240 hitter who swings for the fences all the time.
MW: I don’t know why Alou or Millar would tip the scales, but OK. I think they’ll wind up a little better than .500, which is about 20 games better than a lot of people seem to think (of course, at the end of the season, that still won’t be enough for those people). As for Bautista, you’re being unjustly harsh. The guy has played a whopping 29 innings at first base in his entire major-league CAREER! Also, with 46 homers in five seasons, he’s certainly not someone who swings for the fences all the time.
- JoachimMike…What was with all the inning(s) counts and the monitoring of days off with Joba Chamberlain since he came to the Yankees? I realize it was to do with an injury but it seemed like N.Y. was really babying him, for lack of a better term.
MW: They were being smart, trying to avoid too much of a jump in his innings from year-to-year to prevent an arm injury down the road. We’ll have to watch him the next three to five years to see if it worked.
- chris m.Is Alex Rodriguez still a HOF in your eyes despite the new that came out?
MW: Of course.
- andrewHello Mr. Wilner,
I do not think that anyone has asked you on the blog in a while, so, how are you? And I do genuinely want to know. I am not just trying to start a conversation with it … elapsed time … I hope that is plenty of time to answer. Now, to my questions!
What happens if Matt Clement and Mike Maroth both work out and pitch well through the spring? How might the rotation look to begin the season? Maybe Halladay, Litsch, Purcey, Clement, and Maroth with Janssen in the bullpen and Cecil in AAA to start the year? And then, when McGowan is fully recovered, and if Clement and Maroth are still pitching well, what do you think would happen? Do you think it would be more likely that Purcey, Clement, or Maroth would be taken out of the rotation? Possibly Purcey to give him some extra time to sharpen his skills in AAA? Would the Jays continue the youth-movement, or do you think they would go with the veterans so that Purcey and Cecil do not get rushed up?
I know it is unlikely that they would both work out, but you cannot blame a guy for dreaming, right? I am just wondering your thoughts on that scenario. And, I believe, if even one of the two pitchers works out, and if the rest of the pitching staff pitches like they have for the past two years, that with just an average offence, this team could surprise a lot of people and win 87-90 games while challenging for a Wildcard spot!!!
MW: I think it’s very unlikely that both Clement and Maroth will pitch well enough to break with the team, but if they do then it would give the Jays an opportunity to keep Cecil in AAA for a couple or three months and either Janssen to the bullpen or Purcey back to the minors – though again, I doubt either of the latter two things will happen.
- Justin from ArdtreaHey Mike. Here in another internet cafe. I just thought of an idea. The Fan590 should come out with bracelets that say “WWTCD?” Then give them out to all the negative fans out there giving you a hard time.
MW: What Would Tom Cheek Do?
- Matt in ThailandInteresting article on the A-Rod steroids story:
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/02/10_things_we_learned_from_the.html
I totally agree with what the guy says. No one is ever gonna like A-Rod. And A-Rod is very possibly the greatest player in the game. So let’s all accept that and move on!
MW: It was a good article. If you replace “A-Rod” with “Barry Bonds” in your comment, do you still believe it?
- reyesBaseball Prospectus released their initial PECOTA projections for 2009 and two things jumped right off the page. PECOTA projects Snider to lead the team in HR’s and is a few points behind Rios for the team lead in SLG. The strikeout numbers are still a bit alarming but I really do believe that will come around.
Even more exciting is PECOTA’s projection for Brett Cecil. His PECOTA numbers appear to make him the 2nd best starting pitcher on the team and his numbers are much closer to Roy Halladay than the group in the 3rd best argument. His k/IP is best amongst starters and his GB% projection is even 3% higher than Doc’s. With the return of Aaron Hill and Cito’s eagerness to work Johnny Mac into the lineup more regularly Cecil really could have a breakout year. How do you think the Blue Jays will manage his innings this year? Will they hold him to 30 starts at a strict 5 innings per start limit or start stretching him further into games and shut him down at the end of August?
I get goose bumps thinking about the possibilities if this staff is healthy heading into 2010.
MW: When I spoke to J.P. at the French Fries he said that if Cecil was to make the team, they’d keep an eye on his innings, but they wouldn’t hold him back if he was ready. To me, that means no “Cecil rules”, that if he breaks with the big club (which I think he could) then they’ll treat him just like everybody else, but maybe skip him a time or three when they can, and later in the season shut him down early if they’re out of it.
- MattHellow Mike:
I like to make a few comment’s, this how I see what is going on in jay’s land. With the youth movement here it is a good thing. We will better team.This is one is for all the JP basser’s. I like see what they could have done here that would have been better. With a new gm to come and likely JP will not be here. I hope all the best to him in the future. Go Jay’s Go.
- EddieMy mistake Mike, but you didn’t answer the question. You didn’t actually answer most of the questions. Or correct the large majority of the other grammatical/spelling errors of the other blog responses. I guess I should thank you for making me a special case.
And JP may not be immediately fired(if the new guy doesn’t fire him within 6 months he’s probably the wrong guy for the job though), but he will not be with this team past 2010 if they don’t make the playoffs.
And since that looks unlikely for 2009, he better hope in 2010 everything goes right for him.
As for your statement about him building a team with best defense and pitching the past 2 years, who else does he GM for? The Jays certainly have not been that team (that does explain why they’ve gone nowhere the last 8 years though! Biting off more than he can chew, tsk tsk tsk).
Houston was the best team defensively in 2008, Colorado in 2007. The Jays were Top 3 last year, but middle of the pack to below average in 2007. Pitching I could see your argument as they’ve been Top 3 the past 2 years. But defensively? That’s a joke of a statement.
If this guy knows anything about baseball he’ll see 8 years of mediocrity and JP opening his mouth just to switch feet is more than enough.
MW: First of all, you have a persecution complex. Second of all, you need to reference what you’re talking about – what question did I not answer? Third of all – fine – Ricciardi has built the team with the best pitching in baseball the last two years, and one of the best defenses in baseball this season. What ratings are you using to state that Houston and Colorado had the best defenses this year and last, by the way?
- PaulMike….I know it’s February, but whose starters impress you more, N.Y. or Boston and why?
MW: Pitchers? Position players?
- chris m.No doubt in my mind Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, Scott Rolen may be the best defensive third baseball of my lifetime. Vernon is easily on of the best cf in all of baseball.
What astute comments !! Nice to get such intelligent posters from time to time.
MW: He was bang on on two out of three.
- KenBTW, do you realize that Carlos Delgado finished second to A-Rod in the MVP race in ‘03? Not that it will happen, but shouldn’t King Carlos be awarded the MVP if the article is factual?
MW: I should hope people care, because they keep treating Barry Bonds like the anti-Christ. It’s time to wake up, people. As far as Delgado goes, of course he shouldn’t be awarded the MVP six years later – aside from the meaninglessness of the gesture, who knows WHO was clean?
Since when did “being clean” become a criteria for winning awards in MLB. A-Rod was MVP in 2003. How he did is just so “not relevant”. As much as some of us might no like steroids being a fact of life in baseball, or the NFL, or the NBA, or the Olympics, or the Tour de France, or weight lifing, and on and on, they are. And they are here to stay, especially since the best ones are undetectable and the cheaters are always ahead of the testers.
MW: I think you’re exactly right. That’s kind of why I said the gesture would be meaningless.
- KenMW: I will likely be picking the Rays for fourth this year, 78 wins or so, I think.
Any bets? I will gladly take the over. And there’s no way the Orioles will beat the Rays out for third place.
Using WARP (wins above replacement players) projections from Baseball Prospectus this is what we can expect in the AL East based on current personnel.
Red Sox…….93 – 69
Tampa Bay…..91 – 71
Yankees…….90 – 72
Orioles…….74 – 88
Blue Jays…..72 – 90
Sometimes it seems that Toronto baseball fans, and the baseball “expert” analyst on their flagship station, are incredibly out of touch with reality, but I guess “hope springs eternal”. That’s part of baseball.
Of course the people at Baseball Prospectus might just hate the Blue Jays or be totally incompetent. Yea, either of those explanations would explain the poor projection for the Blue Jays.
MW: Could you give me the AL East finish for 2008 based on pre-season WARP projections from Baseball Prospectus?
- KenBy the way you still haven’t answered my question. How many more years does J.P Riccardi need to put this team into playoff contention?
MW: They should have been in playoff contention the last three years.
And still he doesn’t answer the question. It is a tough question though. I don’t think time is the issue, it’s the quality of JP’s general managing skills that is holding up the process.
MW: You’ve got a lot of anger in you.
- KenScenario: police come across 104 kids spray painting a school. They run them down but are only able to catch one of them; he gives his name as A-Rod and follows with this excuse upon being charged.
“I was under a lot of pressure to keep up with the other artists. I was young,naive, stupid but really, would never have quit if I hadn’t got caught. I was told there was no chance because police were “looking the other way” but even if I did get found out, the charge would be anonymous with no consequences.”
“I’ve switched to just paint brushes in my own house since then and found that I don’t need the spray cans to compete with the other artists on any level.”
Hey A-Rod, guilty, too bad and cry me a river. Now stand in the corner with little Roger Clemons, that Barry kid with the big bloated head and those other kids not going to the Hall Of Fame…
PS
I bet your wife comes out with some stories in the next few weeks
-couldn’t happnen to a bigger ego….except those other two guys….
MW: A-Rod still belongs in the Hall of Fame, as do Bonds, Clemens and McGwire.
- GaryMike.
I’ve been listening to the A-Rod stuff the last few days, and heard a few people praising A-Rod for coming forward and admitting what he did. Now, I suppose it’s better than the ones who blink and deny they did it the face of obvious evidence, but if someone is going to get praised for admitting he shoplifted after the cops find the goods under his shirt, are we not setting the bar a tad low? Looking forward to the Jays this season, hopefully they get a few bounces that go THEIR way for once.
MW: Of course we’re setting the bar low, but people eat this stuff up for some reason.
- Will MurrayMW: Overbay, Ryan, Rios and (probably) Hill weren’t stupid contracts. Wells’ looks bad, but may not in the future, and he could still use that opt-out. Burnett’s wasn’t bad, and Ricciardi didn’t sign Rolen to his, so who are we looking at?
mike, glaus had 1 year left and rolen had 2 years left when he traded for him. rolen was much more injury prone and not as good a hitter so that made it a high risk move and it was completely unnecessary other than to placate glaus which is not a good enough reason.
burnett was a bad contract. we got 1 good year out of three and he was a huge injury risk. it was only blind luck that he wasnt injured in year 3 so he could opt out or else we’d be stuck with him. and remember JP wanted to resign him! didn’t you let out a sigh of relief when he signed with the yanks?
wells will never opt out. nobody will give him more than 20 mil
was it really necessary to lock up hill, rios, overbay to 5-6 year deals when the offense was never that good? also hill and rios basically had 1 good year. how does that justify a 5 year deal? and I dont think that overbay who is not a power hitter deserves power hitter money.
where is it written in the gm playbook that you have to lock up every player to multi year deals after 1 good season? why can’t you go year to year? what is wrong with that approach. hill and rios were both still under contract for at least 2 more years. they could have waited at least 1 more year to see if they could repeat those numbers before offering an extension.
also frank thomas was a horribly structured contract. it was in essence a 3 year deal which would have paid him into his 40′s. in order to get out of it the jays would have to pay him for 2 years 18 mil after only 1 year+ of production. that was asking for trouble and was a complete waste of money. I believe this contract alone is why rogers reduced the budget. they were not seeing any value in the way the money was being spent.
MW: You’re completely off-base in thinking that the Thomas bust was why Rogers dropped payroll. As for the other stuff, Rolen was not “far more injury prone” than Glaus, and though he’s not as good a power hitter, he’s as a good a hitter overall, if not better, and is MILES better than Glaus as a baseball player (you know, defense, baserunning, that kind of stuff). Burnett had two very good half-seasons and one solid season out of his three years – that’s not a bad contract. Wells doesn’t have to get $23 million per year to opt out, he just needs to get a Torii Hunter contract (5 years/$90 million). As for Rios and Hill – the Jays have an out on Hill’s when he gets past his arbitration years, it’s a phenomenal contract, and they bought out a couple of Rios’ free agent seasons WAY under market. Great gamble, that’s what smart teams do.
- roccoHi Mike,
A few things I guess. The A-Rod steroids story: is anyone really surprised? I think we would all be amazed if we knew how many of our favourite players had used steroids and that probably includes the Jays as well. At least he owned up and apologised. Good for him.
Second thing: all this doom and gloom about the Jays is getting to me. Am I the only person actually looking forward to the year in a positive light? Is it not possible that the hitters will turn it around this year? Is it not possible that some young pitchers might blossom? Maybe we can catch lightning in a bottle. Who knows? But it’s going to be fun seeing the young guys develop for a very competitive team in 2010.
Many had high expectations for us in 2008 and were let down. Maybe, just maybe, with low expectations this year, we can be pleasantly surprised and that is something to look forward to.
MW: I’m certainly looking forward to this season. As for A-Rod, I wouldn’t say that he “owned up”. He followed the edict “only admit to what they can prove.”
- Oz RobMike,
Love the blog. Can’t wait until the season returns so we can hear some serious, rational baseball talk on the airwaves again. I don’t know if this question has been asked before, but I was wondering what your thoughts were on how high the ceiling is for Jesse Litsch. His age, control and the late 2008 strides give me the indication that he can be a solid #2 in the years to come. Not a bad return on a 24th round pick in any event.
MW: A great return on a 24th-rounder regardless. How high is his ceiling? Honestly, I don’t know. He’s crashed through all the ceilings I thought he had so far.
- MatthewHey Mike,
How about Congress subpoenas Hank Aaron and asks him if he ever took greenies?
Oh no, not Hank Aaron. That home run record is sacred. There was no such thing as performance-enhancement in the 1960s.
MW: I’m led to understand that both Aaron and Willie Mays admitted to using greenies when they played.
- Ken Paganmike, I think 90% of the gm’s out there would take glaus over rolen. and you don’t pay 10 mil for baserunning and defense.
what is this “out” you are referring to with hill?
you cant use hindsight with burnett. at the time he signed his 5 year deal with the jays, did you think that was a good deal? I do not. it was way too risky.
mike, let me ask you this. if you could waive any blue jay right now and not have to pay his contract, who would you waive? I would waive rolen, overbay and wells and possible hill.
btw, can’t wait to see arod squirm every time he gets booed at every ballpark.
MW: I don’t think that your first statement is true, especially coming off a 2007 season in which Glaus missed 50 games (I know Rolen missed more) and played on half a leg. The consensus at the time was that the deal was about a wash, and whoever got the healthier player would win. So for, that’s St. Louis, but Glaus will miss at least the first month of this season after having had shoulder surgery. The “out” with Hill is the multiple club options on the contract. It’s only a guaranteed $12 million for four years. I thought at the time they signed it that the Burnett contract was a good gamble, and if he could stay healthy he’d wind up worth way more than $11 million a year – turned out he only stayed healthy one out of the three seasons. If I could walk away from any Jays contract right this second, I’d waive Rolen and Overbay and snap up their replacements on the free agent market for 1/5 the cost, but life doesn’t work that way. No one foresaw this economy.
- roccoDo you think steroi…no, wait…Does it make sense in any situation to go after Adam Kennedy now that he’s been released? I read that any team that signs him would only be on the hook for $400,000 for the last year of his current deal. If so, what situation(s) and what role would/could he play? I seem to recall that JP has often been interested in acquiring him.
MW: It depends on whether you’d rather have Kennedy or Joe Inglett. I’d rather have Inglett – he plays more positions well and has hit better recently.
- MattyMike…Sorry about being vague…I was referring to what starting rotation impresses you more, N.Y or Boston and why? Thanks for clarifying that.
MW: The Yankees will trot out CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett. Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte. The Red Sox will throw Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield with Brad Penny and John Smoltz waiting in the wings trying to recover from major injuries. I like the Yanks’ group better right now.
- chris m.MW: A-Rod still belongs in the Hall of Fame, as do Bonds, Clemens and McGwire.
Mike, I know you have said it before as to the above response you made regarding those players. I just find it difficult to understand your rational behind it.
Bottom line is – cheating should not ever be rewarded.
Performance enhancing substance, be it forbody or mind as to attaining greater status or success either in athletics or accedemically is just plain old cheating.
By rewarding for example, MLB players who have cheated, with HOF status – basically you are saying, it’s ok to cheat and if you voted as to the HOF you would be knowingly supporting cheating.
It’s no excuse and just plain dumb for anyone to state – “well they are all doing it, so it’s a level playing field”.
Cheating is employed to create an unfair advantage, usually in one’s own interest, and often at the expense of others. Cheaters should not ever be rewarded
Listening to and watching A-Rod confessing his sins the other day put forth an image of him for me, that I can only describe as pitiful – not anger, not surprised just felt pity for him.
He comes across as a not too well educated and insecure man who could easily be persuaded to try this or that in order to attain a higher status in a game, regardless of the cost.
I am surprised and somewhat dissapointed you and many others would support such actions by rewarding HOF status to some, especially when there is no doubt as to results.
Knowing and respecting you only through this great blog of yours,reading through and between the lines as to the fine family man you are. I am 100% positive you would not encourage, support nor reward anyone for cheating to obtain academic success.
So tell me why would you support via rewarding cheating in athletics?
Am I missing something here – is there a difference?
Thanks.
MW: There’s no difference – cheating is cheating. But the Hall of Fame is a museum of baseball history, and it can’t ignore this segment of history. Also, by excluding players like Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire and Rodriguez, you’re only getting the job part of the way done. How many people elected to the Hall of Fame the last few years and the next few will be cheaters who have managed to do it well enough to not be caught? And we know from decades of watching the Olympics just how easy it is to not be caught. As well, how far do you go? Amphetamines are illegal, and now banned in baseball. Does that mean Henry Aaron is ejected from the Hall of Fame, along with pretty much everybody else that played from 1950 onwards?
- Bob from BurlingtonMW: It was a good article. If you replace “A-Rod” with “Barry Bonds” in your comment, do you still believe it?
I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Barry Bonds is an amazing hitter and I’d love to see him in a Jays uniform, and I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one. Barry Bonds isn’t the only player to lie about his juicing, although he did lie under oath so he’s in legal trouble. A-Rod also completely denied juicing, and here he is, juiced. At least juiced when he played for the Rangers. Both guys are amazing players. I don’t like either of them. But I would take either or both of them on the Jays roster!
MW: You’re in a minority, but it’s good to hear. I wonder how many other people would simply substitute Bonds for Rodriguez in your earlier comment and still stand by it. Not many, I don’t think.
- reyeshey mike would the jays consider snapping up adam kennedy for the league minimum and moving aaron hill to short?
MW: Why? They already have Joe Inglett.
- daveHi Mike,
I’ll do my best to keep it rational and reasonable but I can’t make any promises…
Should/Will the Jays make a move toward Adam Kennedy?
Thanks!
MW: See above.
- Daniel DHey Mike,
The weather is warming, and I am looking forward to getting back to baseball. It will be nice to watch a ‘competitive’ Toronto sports franchise again.
I posted a few times last year, but I am planning on becoming a regular this season, because I respect your opinions (though I don’t necessarily agree with all of them)
A couple of things I wanted to get your thoughts on:
1. Is there any chance the Jays take a look at Downs in the rotation? I remember you advocating for him at the end of last season.
2. I am glad JP didn’t go and make a “big splash” signing/trade this year. I think that the major changes in each of the last several years have made it difficult to build a solid clubhouse. any thoughts on the benefits of continuity?
3. I am joining a fantasy keeper league, you have seen more of the other 29 teams in the league than I have first hand, so do you have any recommendations? any sleepers?
I appreciate any feedback, and I want to say now that I am in the camp that thinks the Jays have a great chance this year thanks to a great coaching (managing) team, and great depth thanks to their youth.
Scott
MW: 1 – I don’t recall advocating for Downs as a starter last year. I remember saying that there were no guarantees that he’d be a mediocre starter now just because he was one when the Jays got him. Regardless, he’s said he wants no part of starting. 2 – I think the clubhouse atmosphere has been just fine for the Jays the last few years. I’m not a big believer in continuity for its own sake. I think you should always be trying to add better players. 3 – I don’t give fantasy advice for two reasons: A) it would take up WAY too much time, and 2) it might tip off my competitors.
- Scotty DMW: The problem is that J.P. doesn’t have an oracle to consult, and it seems most of the fans out there believe he should.
Maybe if Rogers gave them more money, he’d be able to sign this oracle you speak of
MW: Could be. Don’t dangle your participles.
- jpHey Mike
I’m at the Skydome back in 1996 hanging around the dugout an hour after the completion of a Jays/Mariners tilt. A-Rod is being interviewed and the stands are almost completely empty except for myself, a friend, two small kids (maybe 8-10 years old) and their father. A-Rod finishes with the interview at which point the two young boys politely ask Mr.Rodriguez for an autograph. Its not like he would have been stuck signing for hundreds of people, and he was just 10 feet away. It would have taken him 30 seconds but he just walked away without saying a word to these kids.
A-Rod opts out of a contract that pays him 252 million to get even more cash. His teammates and even Yankee fans seem to dislike the guy. Joe Torre, one of the nicest guys in baseball, calls him out in his book, referring to him as A-Fraud.
A-Rod cheats on the field (recall the playoffs when he swatted the ball out of the first-basemens glove while running to first or the Skydome when he called for a pop up, while he was running the bases). A-Rod gets caught cheating on his wife. I never liked this guy, but somehow i find myself disappointed to learn he is a fraud. I thought he might be the one example of a guy who actually produced at a record pace with just hard work and superior athletic ability.
Lets hope Griffey, Maddux and Pedro don’t show up on that list of 103 other cheats that the MLB will surely release sometime in the near future. It will be interesting to see if Bonds, A-Rod, McGwire and Clemens ever make it to the hall of fame.
- RICKMike ..I heard on the fan 590 show that an average ticket price at the new yankee stadium is 2500 dollars.. This price must factor in private boxes.. Or does it? What I would like to know is, what would be the cheapest seat price be assuming you could get one ? Got any ballpark prices.. Cant find on there website.. Thanks Mike..
MW: That can’t be right. What you might have heard is that the New Yankee Stadium version of “in the action” seats are $2500 a pop. You can get a bleacher seat at the new place for $12.
- FLIPPERhey mike,
Even though he hurt himself in his first stint as a pitcher, matt bush showed promise, throwing upwards of 95mph, and in 7 1/2 innings had 5 hits and 1 Earned run in his first start. Now i know its only one start, but that was promising wasnt it? Do you think we can capatilize on the padres lack of patience.
MW: It’s only one start. The guy had a great arm, but he’s almost had more arrests than innings pitched, which is a problem.
- paoloMike…Talking with some colleagues today about Las Vegas, reminded me of doing the 5 hr. drive to Dodger Stadium from L.V….Saw a great Met team in Sept. 1987 (Hernandez, Strawberry,Dykstra et al) vs. a sorry Dodger team and witnessed then starter(later Twins’ closer) Rick Aguilera hit a homerun. Returned to Vegas in May of ’88 and did the trek to Dodger Stadium again and saw the Phillies play an average Dodger team that no way you would’ve picked to win the W.S. I wish I’d laid a few bucks on L.A. when I returned to the casino, but I did not. Mike…Ever been to Dodger Stadium? It was beautiful and the CF view of the mountains is very scenic…And the old adage of Dodger Stadium is that if you throw a hot dog wrapper, the attendants will catch it before it hits the ground…Just be prepared to spend a little while in L.A gridlock….Thanks
MW: I’ve never been to California.
- chris m.Hey Mike!
I just saw the Jays picked up former #1 overall pick, Matt Bush. I know he has a 25 cent head like you mentioned in my last post, but this was a smart move by J.P. Riccardi. It won’t harm the Jays for taking a chance on him. Bush has a lot of potential, so this deal could have a big reward in the end. Bush probably will work his way up with the Jays as a pitcher. His fastball could reach 95 mph, which is promising. Who knows, just look at how Josh Hamilton turned around his troubled career. Hopefully Matt Bush could turn his career around on the mound with the Jays! Anything is possible.
MW: That’s why you take cheap gambles, because sometimes they work out very well.
- SilvioHi Mike,
Now that the Jays traded for the suspect, Matt Bush, do you think that they intend to use him as a pitcher or will they try him as a shortstop again?
Kevin
MW: I believe they’ll keep him pitching.
- KevinLooks like the “Failed shortstop who was converted to a pitcher after he couldn’t hit in the pros” is our newest Jay.
Think he’ll be a loose cannon given his “trouble with the law on multiple occasions”?
J.
MW: The trouble with the law certainly doesn’t give a good first (or second, or third) impression, but I’d like to meet him first then make my own judgements.
- J.C.B.wow off season went by super fast
- JamesMW: Could you give me the AL East finish for 2008 based on pre-season WARP projections from Baseball Prospectus?
Other than Tampa Bay, things went pretty much according to form last year.
Boston…..94-68
New York…92-70
Tampa Bay..87-75
Toronto….87-75
Baltimore..65-97
MW: Cool. That’s good work by WARP. I’m assuming that it also picked the White Sox and Twins to be the top two in the A.L. Central and the Tigers to be under .500.
- KenI asked you if you knew who they had contacted about Beeston’s job.
I also asked you if there was anyone in particular you would like to see them approach.
Thirdly, I asked you who your candidates would be when they fire JP. I’ll re-word it for you though. If you were without a GM, who would you go after?
Lastly, I asked you what you would think of a woman GM like Kim Ng.
As for Houston and Colorado, They both had the fewest errors in the MLB by a rather large margin(Colorado 11, Houston 16) and the highest fielding percentage. In Colorado’s case they also led the league in total chances. It was one of the best defensive teams in history, if not the best.
Now I know there are other defensive statistics out there like Range Factor, Range Factor +, etc. as well, but just the margin they were ahead of everyone is something you can’t really ignore. I could see an argument for the Rays or Cubs as well, but it’s certainly not the Jays.
Not trying to be rude or anything, but when you don’t even answer the questions(or just simply say you don’t know) and then correct my grammar and hardly if anyone elses, it comes off as extremely rude.
MW: Actually, I correct pretty much everybody’s grammar, and what’s wrong with saying I don’t know the answer to a question? The fact that you’re relying on errors and fielding percentage, by the way, knocks your entire argument completely out of the water. There are hardly two more useless statistics in all of baseball (well, maybe pitcher wins). Good for you for throwing total chances in there, though.
- PaulSorry forgot to add, that my comments about the Cubs or Rays is in regards to Houston this year, not Colorado last year.
MW: OK. And seriously, because the Astros made one fewer error every 10 games than its closest competition that makes the argument that it was the best defensive team insurmountable? Seriously?
- Paul“was looking at the pictures of snider, adams, arencibia, etc and I was wondering has JP ever drafted a black player? but then again I think blacks only represent about 20% of mlb now so maybe it is justified.”
Without looking at every pick’s pic, and only speaking to the higher rounds where I’m somewhat familiar with the players, and not counting Latin players like Antonio Jimminez who are often black but not “African Americans”-
2008-
Kenny Wilson
Marcus Brisker
Eric Thames
2007-
Justin Jackson
Eric Eiland
Mike McDade
2005-
Ricky Romero
Seems to be less in the earlier years. To what extent that is connected to the focus on college players is open to speculation but there is certainly a correlation.
- WillRainGood morning Mike, hope you’re well. I’m not sure why I’m commenting on the steroids thing, not sure if it even matters, but here goes.
I show horses, and there is a certain level of rule breaking that is considered basically all right, just don’t talk about it. I do a few of these things myself, nothing that hurts the horse but things which help his appearance or performance. In the show ring there have been some horrific abuses in the name of training, and many good horses ruined by shortcuts and terrible training techniques. Some of these have been discovered and penalized. However, it happened because for years it paid off, those horses were winning and selling, those trainers were getting good paying clients and the cycle goes on. It was, and in some way still remains a system that is amenable to cheating. An amateur like me, who makes no money showing horses, is horrified by a trainer who uses brutal techniques, but at the same time I’m breaking the rules by using tinted makeup to enhance my horses facial features. Would I stop if it became an enforced issue? Yes, because it’s not worth not showing over. Will I do it this season? Yes, because I like that it gives me a little edge by making my horse look better in a large class.
Baseball has been just such a system for a very long time and the rewards and requirements are a lot higher than in showing horses. I’m bothered by some of the cheating, but not surprised; if the system tacitly allows or approves, it’s going to happen. It seems like there is a movement to make it a black and white issue, either these players used or are clean and there’s no in between. It’s steroids and shame or else squeaky clean hero status. Kudos to you Mike for pointing out the amphetamine thing, and all the caffeine loading that is happening now. Is it cheating? In some people’s minds, yes, but if the sport’s officials are condoning it, or even ignoring it, then no, it’s not. It may be unethical, but most people will be unethical for the kind of money baseball players make. The question now is this, and I’d love it if you’d give your opinions on this Mike, if you haven’t given up on this long speil.
Where should the line be drawn now? Forget the past, what should be enforced now, and what can be properly enforced now? What is a realistic policy for MLB to adopt to both placate the fans and still provide a level of play those fans want to see? What do the majority of players want to see defined as cheating and enforced as such? Nothing too tough, huh Mike? Thanks.
MW: There is no realistic policy to adopt, because there’s no way to stop the cheating. It’s sad, but it’s true. People just have to recognize that it’s happening and make their own decisions from there.
- kitaMW: Could you give me the AL East finish for 2008 based on pre-season WARP projections from Baseball Prospectus?
- Ken
Here are the CHONE predicted standings which are usually the most accurate:
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
AL projected Standings
Using the CHONE projections, and what I currently assume will be each team’s lineup. All trades, signings up to today are considered.
AL East
Red Sox 92-70
Yankees 92-70
Rays 89-73
Blue Jays 83-79
Orioles 65-97
MW: I’m confused. Is this the prediction for 2009 or 2008? And what does the Angels’ third baseman have to do with it?
- KenWhy aren’t these steroid cheats who admit they’re steroid cheats suspended for at least one season without pay? Starting with Rodriguez for this upcoming season? Shouldn’t Selig come out and suspend this guy right now? If he doesn’t and lets him play like nothing happened, it makes this sport look like a total joke not even worht anybody’s time of day.
MW: How can Bud Selig suspend Rodriguez for failing a test he took back when MLB said no one who failed the test would be punished?
- Rick GRaceMike,
In light of all the steriods talk, I’ve always noticed something which I haven’t seen written yet, which I think is the physical tell-tale signs of steriod infused players. For example, of the prominent players who have been named so far, Ken Caminiti, Canseco, McGwire, A.Rod, Pettitte, Tejeda, Giambi, Bonds, and so forths, I’ve always noticed they have/had a certain look in their eyes as if they’re really in their own world, zoned out/glazed over and often a little blood shot. Also, other things I’ve noticed is that all these guys have weird facial movements or twitches such as the crazy/frequent/irregular eye blinking, making their eyes as big as possible sometimes, facial twitches, and opening of the mouth as large as possible as if to stretch out the jaw. You can go down the list of steriod implicated, positive tested, Mitchell reported, and admitted users and most have these physical signs I’ve mentioned. If you think back, is this something you may notice as well?
Other guys who I’ve noticed having these signs on the Jays include Delgado and Brad Fullmer.
MW: I don’t remember Delgado looking glazy-eyed or having a facial twitch. I do remember Fullmer being really scary-looking, but he was a very nice guy. I assume that all these things you mention are documented medical side effects of steroid use, right?
- JoachimI really hope alomar does not have aids. I find it hard to believe. I think I saw him on tv last year and he looked fine so I cant see how he has aids. he may be HIV though. his lawyer would not deny this so that is very troubling. it’s funny how these women once they get kicked out then want to sue for 10 million dollars!
- roccoHi Mike
Sorry for using first names before :-)
Two more questions
I looked at Bret Cecil’s scouting report and he seems a lot like AJ from the other side..Devastating fastball and wicked curve. Do you think he might pull it off and make a good replacement for AJ (there I go first name again)
On the opposite is WHY did the Jays take a risky flier on Matt Bush? He may never make to even the minors. This is high ranked kid with no sense. Do you ave any insight into this
Thanks
MW: Bush has a good arm and the Jays are trying to stockpile good arms. His rap sheet doesn’t include steroid use, so it’s not as though the Jays are “selling their souls” to bring him in, I guess. I think Cecil could be very, very good, but you need to lower those expectations right now.
- Richard from ARHey Mike,
Waaaay back on April 28 (I just went and found it) I asked you about Vernon Wells’ declining range. I know that CF is “his spot” and that he’s not likely to lose it any time soon, but I just had a look at John Dewan’s +/- numbers for 2008, and Alex Rios was (according to that measure at least) one of the best defensive outfielders in all of baseball last year. He ranked 6th among CF and 4th among RF in spite of not playing a full season at either spot. Wells, meanwhile, was near the bottom of the list among CFs.
As I said above, I don’t expect it to happen, but if it were up to you, would you move Alex Rios to CF? Can you think of any downside besides making Vernon Wells unhappy?
MW: If it were up to me, I wouldn’t do it yet. But I’d certainly keep it in the back of my mind if Wells’ defense didn’t get back to its old levels or worse, continued to decline.
- DarrenMike:
My prediction is that Kevin Millar takes a lot of bats from Lyle Overbay and Travis Snider because Cito falls in love with his “home run power”. Meanwhile, this team could have afforded Bobby Abreu by non-tendering Jose Bautista, Sean Camp, and Jason Frasor (if you need to find cash). This team needs guys who can get on base like Abreu, but Cito doesn’t even know what that stat is. Home runs baby, if you hit more than 15, you are welcome with Cito. How many outs you make is irrelevant.
- Jim BMW: Cool. That’s good work by WARP. I’m assuming that it also picked the White Sox and Twins to be the top two in the A.L. Central and the Tigers to be under .500.
Why would you assume that? There was no particular reason for either one of those teams to do that well. They had Cleveland and Detroit neck and neck at the top of the division.
Floyd, Danks, Quentin, and Ramirez all came through with unexpected good seasons.
Span, Blackburn, & Slowey all came through with nice seasons for the Twins. They were probably less of a surprise than the White Sox but without the collapse of the the Indians and Tigers nobody would have noticed.
There was lots of reasons to have liked the Rays last spring. Young proven talent at almost every position.
MW: That was sarcasm there – of course WARP wouldn’t have predicted that of the Twins and Sox, or for the Tigers and Indians to crap their pants, as it were. I was trying to illustrate that any prediction is far from infallible.
- KenHere are the CHONE predicted standings which are usually the most accurate:
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
AL projected Standings
Using the CHONE projections, and what I currently assume will be each team’s lineup. All trades, signings up to today are considered.
AL East
Red Sox 92-70
Yankees 92-70
Rays 89-73
Blue Jays 83-79
Orioles 65-97
MW: I’m confused. Is this the prediction for 2009 or 2008? And what does the Angels’ third baseman have to do with it?
These were the predicted 2008 standings done by Sean Smith that he likes to refer to as CHONE because he is a big Angel fan. His player projections have been pretty much universally accepted as the best available for a while now and they are free.
Here is a link http://www.baseballprojection.com/
MW: So the Blue Jays, despite having a very disappointing season by all accounts, actually OVERperformed their projection by three games? Nice.
- KenThere’s nothing wrong with you saying you don’t have answers but you would have to say it first for it to apply here. Also most of the questions were opinion questions.
As for defense, I conceded I could see arguments for a couple other teams as well. Teams that had higher rankings in other defensive stats.
I think pretty much everyone in baseball would agree my statement of Houston being the best team defensively in 2008 has a lot more merit than your statement about the Jays being the best the past 2 years.
MW: I don’t.
- PaulMike, re your response to #68 — I don’t see a participle in the comment. What you mean (I think) is “don’t close a sentence with a preposition”.
MW: You’re right.
- NormMW: So the Blue Jays, despite having a very disappointing season by all accounts, actually OVERperformed their projection by three games? Nice.
The Blue Jay season was only disappointing for those who thought that they would be over 90 wins and in the playoff hunt. Around the baseball world in general Toronto’s 2008 season was not considered disappointing.
One thing to keep in mind is that while the Blue Jays’ offense was self destructing; virtually every Blue Jay pitcher except BJ Ryan (and including Doc Halladay) were having great and largely unexpected seasons.
Halladay – 246 IP, 2.78 ERA
Marcum – 151 IP, 3.39 ERA
McGowan – 111 IP, 4.37 ERA
Burnett – 221 IP, 4.07 ERA
Litsch – 176 IP, 3.58 ERA
Ryan – 58 IP, 2.95 ERA
Downs – 71 IP, 1.78 ERA
Tallet – 58 IP, 2.88 ERA
League – 33 IP, 2.18 ERA
Carlson – 60 IP, 2.25 ERA
Wolfe – 25 IP, 2.45 ERA
Hands-up, everybody expecting a repeat performance.
MW: Yeah, the Jays leading the majors in pitching was just a fluke. Not like T-Bay winning the pennant.
- KenMW: Cool. That’s good work by WARP. I’m assuming that it also picked the White Sox and Twins to be the top two in the A.L. Central and the Tigers to be under .500.
Why would you assume that? There was no particular reason for either one of those teams to do that well. They had Cleveland and Detroit neck and neck at the top of the division.
Floyd, Danks, Quentin, and Ramirez all came through with unexpected good seasons.
Span, Blackburn, & Slowey all came through with nice seasons for the Twins. They were probably less of a surprise than the White Sox but without the collapse of the the Indians and Tigers nobody would have noticed.
There was lots of reasons to have liked the Rays last spring. Young proven talent at almost every position.
MW: That was sarcasm there.
Why the need for sarcasm ? Just because you couldn’t/didn’t see Tampa Bay Rays coming, doesn’t mean that others didn’t. It’s true that the “main stream media” was caught unaware, but the sabremetrically based systems were all over Tampa Bay in the spring of 2008. And your constant attribution of their success to luck is just ignorance, sour-grapes, and a refusal to admit a rather poor effort with regard to off-season analysis.
MW: Why is it that the fact that the sabremetrically-based systems saw Tampa improving (but missed by what, 8-10 game) proves them right, and yet you dismiss the facts that they didn’t see the White Sox and Twins coming, and that they didn’t see the Tigers and Indians failing.
- KenMW: Why is it that the fact that the sabremetrically-based systems saw Tampa improving (but missed by what, 8-10 game) proves them right, and yet you dismiss the facts that they didn’t see the White Sox and Twins coming, and that they didn’t see the Tigers and Indians failing.
Tampa Bays success was predictable by looking at the projections for individual players.
The collapse of the Tigers and Indians was not, although a lot of people did think that Bonderman was a health risk and Willis was way over-rated especially for a NL pitcher coming to the AL, off a bad season, and having been over-worked in the past.
The White Sox and Twins has lots of players exceed their projections, some of which I mentioned earlier. The Rays players basically did as projected or slightly better.
MW: Not even a glimmer of recognition, huh? Maybe it’s also that the projections are often wrong. Probably more often than they’re right.
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