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11:45 AM Eastern
It was a good week and a half away.
Thanks to all of you who left such kind words in the comments section after the Phillies did me the huge solid of closing it out in “five”. As a result, the family trip to Boston went off hitch-free, and even included a Birthday Chang’s lunch for my wife, which is the first time we have ever been able to have Birthday Chang’s for anyone in the family besides me (I have a Spring Training birthday, so we’re always in the U.S. then).
It was definitely a good time, I even enjoyed the So You Think You Can Dance Tour show – which is to say I managed to stay awake throughout the show (barely). I think I was charged by the adrenaline rush of the two-mile jog to the arena that our cabbie couldn’t find.
The highlight of the trip was probably taking the kids trick-or-treating through my uncle’s neighbourhood in suburban Wellesley, home of Hilary Clinton’s alma mater and a place where Dee Brown was famously pulled over for DWB. We were asked where we came from a few times, and at one of the houses, the woman at the door said something along the lines of “how wonderful this must be for you, since you don’t have Hallowe’en in Canada”. I came this close to giving her the igloo/indoor plumbing speech.
So now I’m back to my off-season job of being a traffic cop at The Billie’s school (getting parents to love or hate me like just listeners do during the season), and occasionally checking in here. I’ll try to do a better job of getting the comments up on a more timely basis, but I really neeeded the time to decompress.
Now, onto the baseball.
Starting today and over the next week and a half, the annual Baseball Writers’ Association of America Awards will be handed out, beginning with the rookies of the year. I’m going to offer my predictions as to who will win (I’m very confident about four of the eight awards, not confident at all about the others), with NO thought that I’ll be able to repeat last year’s eight-for-eight prediction performance.
I’ll repeat this – there’s a VERY good chance that I will be wrong with most of these predictions, and if I am, I don’t want to hear about it for years to come.
That said, I’m going to tell you who I think WILL win the awards, not who I think deserves to win them. And we’ll start with the easy ones:
Rookie of the Year:
A.L. – Evan Longoria, 3b, Tampa Bay. I’m not sure anyone else is even in the conversation, despite the fact that Longoria didn’t make the team out of Spring Training and missed a month with a broken wrist. He could very well win the award unanimously.
N.L. – Geovany Soto, c, Chicago. Soto and Joey Votto of the Reds (and of Etobicoke!) had very similar numbers in their rookie seasons, finishing within one home run and two RBIs of each other (which is what a lot of the voters look at first and last, unfortunately), but the fact that Soto is a catcher tilts the scales in his favour.
Cy Young Award (N.L. – Tuesday, A.L. – Thursday):
A.L. – Cliff Lee, Indians. There are many arguments to be made as to why Roy Halladay should win this award over Lee, and most of them have a LOT of merit. When you look at the big picture, including WHIP, innings pitched, strength of opposition, everything, Halladay had a better year than Lee. But Cliff Lee went 22-3 AND led the league in ERA. He’ll win, and likely in a walk. Halladay may even be pushed out of the top 3 by Francisco Rodriguez and Dasiuke Matsuzaka.
N.L. – Tim Lincecum, Giants. This is one of the tough ones. Do you go with the guy who had four fewer wins, knowing how much the voters look at that one stat more than seemingly anything else, or do you go with the guy who led the league in strikeouts and finished second in ERA? I’m thinking that Lincecum’s strikeouts and ERA will likely swing the vote his way despite how his 18-5 looks next to Brandon Webb’s 22-7. Maybe.
Manager of the Year (Wednesday):
A.L. – Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay. And it’s foolish to imagine that anyone else will even be considered seriously.
N.L. – Lou Piniella, Chicago. Another one of the tough ones, but Charlie Manuel of the Phillies will lose votes because of the Mets’ collapse, Joe Torre of the Dodgers will lose votes because Manny Ramirez was seen as the thing that got L.A. to the playoffs, and Ned Yost of the Brewers will lose votes because he got fired with a week and a half left in the season. There wasn’t an out-of-nowhere team that made huge, unexpected gains this year, so that leaves Lou. Remember, too, votes were in when everyone saw a 97-win Cubs team that appeared to be headed for post-season glory, not a team that got swept in ugly fashion in the first round.
Next week, they hand out the MVPs, and next Sunday or Monday, I’ll post on who I think will win those awards. Neither of them are slam-dunks by any means.
Until then, reasonable, rational comments are always welcome.
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Im with you on the Lincecum idea Mike, but by the same logic i feel like Halladay should also win over Lee, especially since Lee wasn’t facing the other teams ace and hitter he was faceing had a much lower average (wish i still had that stat).
Would the voters look at run support at all ? i think that is very telling when you so heavily weigh Wins over other stats.
But Mike, what do you think of Milton Bradley as the Jays next DH ?
MW: 22-3 trumps 20-11 almost no matter how you slice it, but when you add the ERA title, it’s a slam-dunk for the writers. I’ve answered the Bradley question a few times recently.
- DaveMW: We’re talking about Rios, right? I’m not talking about walks, per se, I’m talking about getting on-base. For his career, he gets on base less than 34% of the time, which is pretty bad for a lead-off man. Ideally, you’d like a lead-off guy to have at least a .380 on-base percentage.
Hi Mike, not trying to nit pick here but I think you need to lower your standards on what a leadoff hitters on base % should be. I mean ideally you’d lik him to have an on base percentage of .1000 but its not realistic and I don’t think .380 is either seeing how only 22 MLB players had an on base of .380 or higher and if you had one of those guys you’d probally hit him three or four in your lineup.
MW: I do have high standards, it’s true, and maybe they are a bit too high, but Rios’ .334 obp is still WAY too low to lead off, for me. I’m also a big fan of platooning, though, and there were 42 players who had at least a .380 obp against righties this past season (min. 300 PA) and 57 who turned the trick against lefties (min. 100 PA). They’re out there.
- Dan MMike…A little umpiring question or head-scratcher is probably a better term? The so-called rule is that the pitch is judged by the home-plate ump as to where it crosses the plate, not where it ends up in the catcher’s mitt. And hearing many times before that a batter has a fraction of a second to determine whether to swing or not, wouldn’t that be asking a lot of a pair of human eyes to determine whether Halladay’s cutter broke over the plate or in Zaun/Barajas’ glove?…Can’t say I remember a lot about Newton’s physics and the abilities of human optics, but I do think the ump calls it where it lands in the glove…Do you agree Mike?
MW: I never took physics. Too many umps make the call based on where the ball is caught, but they’re only human. Robot umps!
- chris m.Mike,
Why try to predict the whims of fools? I’m more interested in who you think SHOULD win. (Although aside from Lee, I’m guessing your predictions would be the same as your picks.)
My picks:
Longoria
Soto
Halladay
Lincecum (Santana close 2nd)
Maddon
Piniella
Mauer (Sizemore close 2nd)
Pujols
MW: The whims of fools? Be careful if you ever hop down off that horse you’re riding. Seems to be a long way down.
- MichaelMike, I know this is not your choices as to who should win the awards, so these comments are not directed towards you, but rather the people who would even consider putting Dice-K or K-Rod in front of Halladay. It just blows my mind. K-Rod may have had the most overrated season of any athlete in any sport this year, I don’t think it’d be any stretch to say he wasn’t even the best closer in baseball. As for Dice-K, he is the exact opposite of a workhouse, this guy struggles to get into the 7th inning, I think it’d be a joke if he finished ahead of Doc.
MW: I know I said it could happen, but let’s wail until the voting is revealed before you start ripping.
- TerryI’ll take a stab at going 8-for-8:
AL Rookie — Longoria
NL Rookie — Soto
NL CY — Lincecum
AL Cy — Cliff Lee
NL Mgr — Piniella
AL Mgr — Maddon
NL MVP — Pujols
AL MVP — Hamilton
Bonus awards
Worst 1st baseman in the AL East — Lyle Overbay
Worst Transaction — Release Reed Johnson to sign Shannon Stewart
2nd Worst Transaction — Sign David Eckstein for $4.5-million when there are already four capable middle infielders in place; and have Eckstein ride pine from June through August
3rd Worst Transaction — release DH Frank Thomas to avoid being on the hook for his option, leaving a hole in the middle of the lineup that was never replaced during a season when a big bat was most needed
Snow Job Award for somehow still being around for the eighth year of a five-year plan — J.P. Ricciardi
MW: And it’s very easy to tell that you’ve clearly researched all the transactions made by teams other than the Blue Jays this year. Amazing, isn’t it, that an 86-win team with the 3rd-best Pythag W-L in its league can have made the three worst moves of the year.
- Ken PaganHi Mike, glad to hear you and family had a safe and great trip to Boston.
That’s hillarious the comments as to Halloween in Canada or rather lack of it!
Really makes you wonder how some bashed Palin for not knowing the members of NAFTA and other things outside the U.S.A. – it’s not uncommon to find some Americans who are way out in left field (pardon the pun)when it comes to Canada.
My own experience (one of them) down there, happened in Knoxville Tenn when a lady at a company I was visiting thought Canada was a northern state of the U.S. True story!
I had a very difficult time keeping a straight face as I tried to explain things to her. Even after that, she wanted to know “when we had broken away from the U.S.”.
So, I told her we had broken away and went on our own after the Civil War. She said this would make for interesting conversation at her dinner table that night. Wish I had been there for that.
Baseball – I agree with your picks except for one, the N.L manager of the year. I think this will go to Torre. Maybe only to rub it in the Yankees face (I know cynical thoughts). You are right however as to that being one of the tougher ones to pick.
Take care Mike – what fills your day work wise by the way, during the off season for MLB? Why does the Fan not send you to these meetings?
Hey, the Fan 590 has a hockey show during the MLB season – why not a babseball show during the NHL season! Just kidding!
Thanks.
MW: I doubt a regular baseball show during hockey season will ever happen anywhere in this country. Why don’t they send me to the meetings? Good question.
- Bob from Burlingtonhey mike;
Agree with all your picks, and longoria was deserving ofthe al honor rookie of the year, who knows if the jays called up snider in the beginning of the year maybe him and lind would have given longoria a run for his trophy. P.s looks like peavy is staying in the NL, Mike would you consider a trade ofs go for this; longoria/garza for halladay if roy doesn’t want to sign long term? Would the rays go for this; thx for the great blog.
MW: I’d make that trade if I were the Jays, but I don’t think there’s much chance at all that T-Bay would consider it.
- robert.sHi Mike,
Alwats a pleasure reading your comments and listening to you. I enjoy your candor. I think it would be ablessing is disguise if AJ Burnett signs elsewhere, which I believe will happen. He had a good year, although one should not be overly fooled by the 18 wins. In my opinion, he is a huge risk and the Jays should not even consider a big money long term deal with him. Given his propensity for injuries and also that this was, in essence, a contract year for him, I would bet my house that if the jays brought him back for , say a 5 year 100 million dollar deal, it would be a huge error. I say let the yanks or whomever else take that risk and suffer the consequences. I see no reason why the Jays can’t go out and focus on a mid range guy like a Derek Lowe who will win you 13-15 games, eat innings and stay healthy.
- IanHi Mike,
The Jays have Adam Lind, Travis Snyder, Alex Rios , and Vernon Wells in the outfield. Do you think the Jays will use Snyder and Lind at DH on a rotating basis? I would hate to see young guys in the DH role, but the Jays need to get their bats in the lineup. On the other hand, the Jays are shopping for a more experienced bat for the middle of the line up. With that said, do the Jays shop either Lind or Snyder? I would probably shop Lind. Others may say shop Rios but he is much better defensively than Snyder or Lind and we all know good defence wins games.
MW: Why do you hate to see young guys in a DH role if the older guys are the better defensive players? And it should be noted that the Blue Jays had the best defense in baseball in 2007 and won all of 83 games.
- IanHi Mike,
I have to agree that Joe Torre should not really get a whole lot of consideration for Manager of the Year. The Dodgers were basically a .500 team in a very weak division before manny arrived. Nothing really stood out about the Dodgers until then. The late surge after Manny’s arrival won them the division.
MW: You’re agreeing with what I said writers would do, not with me.
- IanMike:
J.P. blew off the Bay trade because he was a rental player. Doesn’t he have another year (2009) left – and that’s called a rental player. What is J.P. saving all those extra pitchers for? How does he miss Holliday – and for so little – affordable both ways.
Your Picks should be closer than you think. Have an enjoyable week.
MW: Your first sentence takes all the steam out of your entire argument. The fact that the Blue Jays didn’t trade for Bay had nothing at all to do with his contract. And take a look again at how “little” the A’s gave up for Holliday – that’s a package of League or Janssen, Snider and Cecil that Colorado got.
- Richard SpackmanWBC tickets went on sale today!
- RahilMike: I’m beside myself with joy – I was “selected” to have the chance to buy tickets for Round 1 of the 2009 World Baseball Shindig.
I assume you will have media credentials for the day 1 doubleheader at Rogers Centre, Sat., Mar. 7/09: Canada v. USA (Jeff Francis? throwing the first pitch to Jimmy Rollins?) then Italy v. Venezuela (perhaps a Johan Santana changeup to Frank Catalanotto?!)
On an un-baseball note, I wanted to let you, my fellow alumnus, know that our alma mater staged a dignified and respectful Service of Remembrance at Soldiers’ Tower this morning officiated by the truly venerable Major Hobbs. It was particularly pleasing to see that many schools brought students for the day’s events.
Keep the hot-stoves burning, Michael.
MW: I’m not assuming I’ll be there, though I certainly hope to – I might be in Florida.
- Adrian, co-alumnusGreat to see Tim Lincecum win the NL Cy Young, he was definitely the most deserving.
Anyway, I noticed that the Nationals aquired Scott Olsen and Willingham from the Marlins but didn’t give up that much in return. Olsen is a left handed pitcher and would have been a great fit for the Jays. I feel like we could have definitely beat the Nationals offer and if they were actually shopping him we missed a good opportunity to improve our staff. Do you think there was any chance the Jays made a run at him? Did Willingham have a big contract that the Marlins wanted to unload in any deal scaring the Jays away?
MW: I’m sure the Jays did make a run at Olsen, but the Marlins liked Washington’s offer better. Willingham is in his arbitration years, but certainly not a huge contract. I don’t know that they didn’t give up much in return, though.
- Ian (not Kinsler)Three for three so far Mike. Is there any chance the Jays sign Burnett or O-Dog?
MW: There’s always a chance, but not much of one.
- Jamie/WindsorSo far yo uare 3 for 3. Good job. I dont see you getting the other 3 wrong either.
Glad to see your trip went well.
MW: Thanks. We shall see on the other three, but regardless, the MVPs will be the toughest calls.
- ChadLooks like fire sale time in San Diego. Now’s the time to get Peavy.
1) What would Peavy cost for the Jays and do you think seeking Peavy is a reasonable move for the Jays?
2) What would Adrian Gonzalez cost the Jays and do you think going after Gonzalez is wise?
3) With Matt Holliday gone to Oakland, were the Jays ever in play in trying to acquire Holliday? Seeing it’s Huston Street and Greg Smith, could the Jays not have given up Adam Lind and/or Accardo/Ricky Romero/Brandon League.
For a steady, proven, in-his-prime bat like Holliday, I’d give up Lind and a young pitcher.
MW: The Padres need more than that. Atlanta is offering them Yunel Escobar AND their top young outfield prospect, as well as a young pitcher with big-league time, and that’s not enough. I don’t know if the Jays were in the Holliday sweepstakes, but I think you’re either really undervaluing what the A’s gave up or really overvaluing Lind and those three pitchers.
- Ken PaganIt’s quite funny (actually sad) to read an old 2002 article on JP and read his grandeous predictions and how fast the team was going to improve. almost all the hot names in the article are not even on the team anymore! now here we are 6 years later and the team is hopelessy going nowhere. after reading this article it makes you wonder why JP is still here.
Friday, March 1, 2002
Updated: April 17, 5:54 PM ET
Ricciardi has plan in place for Blue Jays
——————————————————————————–
By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com
DUNEDIN, Fla. — All it took was an hour and 45 minutes of listening, and Paul Godfrey knew that J.P. Ricciardi was a man with a plan.
“I went for the interview at 10 a.m.,” the new GM of the Toronto Blue Jays remembers. “They offered me the job at quarter to 12. I felt like Ralph Kramden. I was going: ‘Hamanahamanahamanahamena.’ ”
But eventually, J.P. Ricciardi found another word to utter: Yes.
Carlos Delgado remains on a Blue Jays team with many new faces.
Now, 3½ months later, the man with the plan has a new challenge. Maybe he had no trouble convincing the president of the Blue Jays he had the smarts and the vision to succeed Gord Ash and rescue baseball in Toronto. But now he has to convince his fans and his players that he was brought in to do more than just lop dollar signs off the Blue Jays’ debit sheets.
We’ll make a little bet: This time, it’s going to take longer than an hour and 45 minutes.
But if you just watched Ricciardi roar through the winter meetings — unloading Billy Koch, Alex Gonzalez and Paul Quantrill in the same week — and thought all he was doing was shedding money, you’re underestimating this man.
He may be just 42 years old. He may never have been a general manager before. But J.P. Ricciardi gets it.
He spent the last 15 seasons working for the Oakland A’s. And it’s not a stretch to say he was every bit as big a reason the A’s won 102 games last year as Jason Giambi or Mark Mulder or Billy Beane.
Somebody has to spot the players. Somebody has to be able to say who can play and who can’t play. And it was Ricciardi who told his boss, Beane, that Terrence Long could play, that Jason Isringhausen could be a closer, that Mulder and Barry Zito could make the journey from first-round draft picks to big-league impact pitchers in a hurry.
Now Ricciardi brings those same dead-on evaluation instincts and the same fearlessness to Toronto. And he’s been instructed by Godfrey to build the Blue Jays around “the Oakland A’s model of success.”
To the casual observer, that might sound like a synonym for “overachieve with a $33-million payroll.” But that isn’t how the new GM in Toronto sees it.
“When Billy took over (as GM) in Oakland (and made Ricciardi his right-hand man), we lost 97 games his first year as GM,” Ricciardi said. “We didn’t have half the talent and the resources this team has. We had to do it by drafting players, by signing six-year free agents, by taking chances on guys. Here, we have the ability to fast-forward the process. We’ve got good players here now, and our prospects are all close.”
The regulars
The Blue Jays’ projected lineup for the 2002 season:
DH Shannon Stewart
2B Homer Bush
RF Raul Mondesi
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Jose Cruz
CF Vernon Wells
SS Felipe Lopez
3B Eric Hinske
C Darrin Fletcher / Josh Phelps
Rotation
Roy Halladay
Chris Carpenter
Luke Prokopec
Brandon Lyon
Esteban Loaiza / Mike Sirotka
Closer
Kelvim Escobar
But Ricciardi also has one thing Beane doesn’t have and never has had — a $76-million payroll.
So when Ricciardi was moving almost $13 million by dealing Koch, Gonzalez, Quantrill and Brad Fullmer, it didn’t mean he had to trade everybody in Toronto except Vince Carter.
A GM with a $76-million payroll can hang onto Carlos Delgado ($14.75 million), Raul Mondesi ($11 million) and Shannon Stewart ($4.25 million), plus five other players making $3 million or more and four others making $2 million or more. So Ricciardi hung onto all of them (although Mondesi figures to be eminently available in July).
Obviously, that doesn’t make this team the Yankees. But another part of The Ricciardi Plan revolves around making sure everyone around him understands that to beat the Yankees, you don’t have to be the Yankees.
“You can’t be — but who can?” Ricciardi says. “They’re in a whole other stratosphere from everybody else. You can’t go out and outspend them, but that’s not where we want to be, anyway.
“We’re not going to be Oakland, either,” he says. “We’ve got a lot more money and a lot fewer restrictions than we had in Oakland. But I will incorporate a lot of the philosophies we used in Oakland.
“And one of the big things I learned in Oakland, from Sandy (Alderson) and Billy, was that you’ve got to keep your flexibility financially. You don’t back yourself into a corner, because sometimes it’s harder to dig yourself out of the corner than it was to get yourself into the corner in the first place.”
In Oakland, that meant trading a Ben Grieve here and letting an Isringhausen go there if you could replace their production with less expensive parts. In Toronto, it could mean not necessarily holding onto all the Shannon Stewarts or Chris Carpenters as arbitration years inflate their paychecks down the road and the prospects arrive.
But managing money creatively is part of the GM business these days. So Ricciardi promises the Blue Jays of the future will make “good financial decisions and good baseball decisions.” And he is already peering over his horizon and forecasting “a big upside over the next few years.”
“ We’re not going to be Oakland. We’ve got a lot more money and a lot fewer restrictions than we had in Oakland. But I will incorporate a lot of the philosophies we used in Oakland. ”
— J.P. Ricciardi, Blue Jays GM, who formerly worked in the A’s front office
Which sounds great. But how does he convince his customers and his clubhouse of that, after a winter in which his most important acquisitions were Eric Hinske, Luke Prokopec and Justin Miller? Who, talented as they may be, aren’t quite Giambi, Smoltz and Sele. Yet.
“When we made those deals,” admits center fielder Jose Cruz Jr., “I didn’t really know what was going on. First, we traded Billy Koch. Then we traded away one of my best friends, Alex Gonzalez. I didn’t know what to think, because I didn’t know what we got. Those were guys I never really heard of.”
Out there on the streets of Toronto, a public that had never really heard of J.P. Ricciardi, either, was thinking the same thing. But Ricciardi knows that once upon a time in Oakland, nobody had heard of men named Giambi, Hudson or Mulder, either.
“I understand it,” Ricciardi says, “because people related to guys like Gonzalez and Quantrill, because they knew them, because they’d been around a long time. They don’t know who Hinske is. They don’t know who (eye-opening 21-year-old shortstop) Felipe Lopez is. They don’t know who Prokopec is. They’re just names to them.
“But if they don’t believe those were the right moves now, that doesn’t bother me. They were things that needed to be done. This is a club whose average record was 77-85 the last seven years. They spent a lot of money, and they weren’t going in the direction they needed to be going.”
Still, this is an age in which people have been told — even by the commissioner of baseball — that dollars spent equals games won. So Ricciardi is going to have to prove there’s another way to win, even to the players who will have to do the winning.
He can only do that a little at a time. So last December, when he met Delgado at a charity event in Toronto, Ricciardi tried to get his message across to his highest-profile player.
“I just explained to him that sure, we want to win, but there’s a right way to win and a wrong way to win,” Ricciardi said. “I said, ‘You don’t want to win once and then never have that chance again.’ I mean, it’s not like we had to drop a bomb here and start from scratch. We can fast-forward the process, and great things can happen here if we get everyone on board.”
But for now, his players are still forming first impressions, watching and judging as they go along.
“I like his attitude,” Delgado says. “He’s very positive, very upbeat. He’s kind of wired. He’s on the go all the time, and that’s not bad. He’s got a good attitude. (Laugh.) At least we know he’s not afraid to trade anybody.”
For now, though, the trades are mostly over. Ricciardi does plan to deal one of his three veteran left-handed relievers — Pedro Borbon, Felix Heredia or Dan Plesac — this spring. But mostly, this spring training will be about transition, not transactions.
It will be about installing the gifted Lopez at short. It will be about giving Hinske every opportunity to prove that his 67 errors at third base the last three years can be balanced by his considerable offensive tools.
It will be about seeing whether hot prospect Orlando Hudson is ready to start at either second or third. It will be about finding the best way to make use of ready-to-roll outfield phenom Vernon Wells, with Mondesi, Stewart and Cruz already assured of outfield jobs.
It will be about making sure Kelvim Escobar is committed to his return to the closer’s job. It will be about seeing how far away big-buzz pitching prospect Chris Baker (15-6 in Double-A) and last year’s first-round pick, outfielder Gabe Gross, really are.
Because of all that youth, it won’t be a spring in which many people will talk about the Blue Jays as contenders right now. But in many ways, says manager Buck Martinez, “I look at this team and compare us to last spring, and we’re miles ahead.”
For one thing, that’s because they have a significantly better rotation, with Carpenter, the revitalized Roy Halladay, the dazzling young Brandon Lyon (who rose from Double-A to the big leagues and went 15-7 at three levels of play last season) and Prokopec (who got off to a 6-1 start with the Dodgers). And not far behind are Mike Sirotka and Steve Parris, both on the way back to midseason health.
For another thing, Delgado says, after last April’s 16-9 start deteriorated into an 80-82 season, “we needed a change in attitude and chemistry.”
Well, if it’s change they needed, it sure is change they got. They got J.P. Ricciardi, the man with the plan. And you can bet he’s plotting his next move, even as we speak.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
MW: Good read, though a link would have been preferable. It’s fun to look back on that. I didn’t draw the same conclusions you did, though.
- roccono world serie with j.p.
MW: Well, that’s good enough for me.
- robert bMike…I know you went for a non-sports family trip, but are there any monuments or statues of Ted Williams or Bobby Orr in or about the parts Boston you frequented? Wonder if it’s still Ted’s Town or Big Papi’s now?
MW: I didn’t see any sports-related statues at all.
- chris m.I am glad that AJ opted out. The Jays will have more money free to fill in the rest of the roster and maybe pursue Furcal as well as the other players mentioned. I will make a prediction as well, but not about awards. I will predict that AJ will sign a 4-5 year deal, land on the DL 5-6 times and stay healthy the last year in his contract to make a push for retirement money. Is it possible for the Jays to trade Ryan for a starting pitcher and use the freed up money on some offense? Thanks Mike and sorry for being late on saying great job with the blog. Look forward to next season.
MW: Thanks. I don’t think they can get a good starting pitcher for Ryan alone.
- JustinI emailed that article tomyself so I didn’t have thelink.
so what conclusions did you draw mike? It’s funny reading JP’s quotes like “we are going to have financial flexibility” “our prospects are close” “the team spent a lot of money and wasn’t going in the right direction” “here we can fast forward the process”
where are we now? we are in the exact same spot as when he started! bad contracts, few prospects, and halladay is 6 years older
if somehow JP keeps his job, don’t you think he will be fired if there is another repeat mediocre season?
MW: Right now, the Jays have one bad contract (Rolen), maybe two (Wells), and I wouldn’t say they have few prospects at all. Nor do I think there’s a “somehow” involved in J.P. keeping his job but yes, if the Jays have a mediocre season he’ll be fired. Not that they had a mediocre season this past year.
- roccoHi Mike,
On the baseball show idea during the off-season, I have this to say: Even though I follow hockey, I turn off the the FAN from about Nov-Feb (save for Sunday mornings)… a regular baseball show would certainly get me to tune in much more and perhaps make me realize I don’t hate the hockey coverage as much as I think (maybe it is more interesting when not on in July). I wonder how many others tune out the FAN during hockey season. I’m sure your bosses know what they’re doing, but I wonder if they’re not being short sighted ruling out an hour of baseball coverage a week during the off-season.
Any suggestions on who to write/email to make the desire for an off-season baseball show known to the people who decide on programming?
best,
Chris
MW: I’m sure there are contact e-mail addresses somewhere on this website. I don’t want to give any out here at the risk of annoying the people who employ me. There’s no question that hockey drives the bus, and the reason it does is because that’s what most listeners want. If not for the Leafs, there wouldn’t be a Fan590.
- Christopher TaylorMW: And it’s very easy to tell that you’ve clearly researched all the transactions made by teams other than the Blue Jays this year. Amazing, isn’t it, that an 86-win team with the 3rd-best Pythag W-L in its league can have made the three worst moves of the year.
Who said THREE worst moves of the year?
After careful consideration, the straight-up Glaus-for-Rolen deal is also among the worst transactions of the year.
Anyway you want to put it, Mike, did any of these four transactions (all adding to or subtracting from the starting lineup) bring ANY benefit to the Blue Jays’ fortunes in 2008?
MW: YOU said the three worst moves of the year.
- Ken PaganHi Mike,’
Regarding the AL MVP, I woudl go with Dustin Pedroia. He didnt have the huge numbers of past MVPs but neither did Kirk Gibson in 1988 with 15 homers. Pedroia was the engine of that Sox offense and the heart. Do you think Josh Hamilton will gt some consideration from writers, not only for his big numbers but for his overall story? Obviously since Texas didnt have a great season that would be a factor. Also, Josh tailed off in the second half.
MW: Gibson actually hit 25 homers in 1988. Hamilton will get plenty of consideration from the writers, he’ll likely be named on every ballot, but he won’t win it because of both his second-half fade and the Rangers’ suckitude. More because of the Rangers’ overall suckitude, though. I haven’t decided who to pick for the MVPs yet – let me bask in my 6-for-6ness so far!
- IanMike,
We all know that picthers with violent deliveries such as K-Rod can be a risk for arm injuries at any time. Given this possibility, do you think it would be wise for the Angels or any team to sign him to a contract with a term longer than, say 4 years? I recently read that his velocity was down in the second half of last season. I think back to a guy like Juan Guzman with that violent delivery and how short his career was due to injuries to his arm. perhaps I am overblowing this but I just see K-Rod as a bit of a risk if his deal has too long a term.
MW: Every pitcher is a risk, regardless.
- Ianmike c’mom please set the record straight would you…
sure lefty lee had a terrific season & 22-3 is impossible to ignore i realize that but….
to be absolutely correct on these things (handing out cy’s) don’t you have to look at all the statistics and make do it right.
i look at the no’s of these 2 and i’ll tell you what i come up with. his 3 extra wins & less losses come from 2 things. better run support thru & thru and not facing the rays bo-sox & yanks 20 something times or whatever it was…
but i’m drunk all the time so what do i know……
MW: First off, Halladay didn’t face the Rays, BoSox and Yankees 20-plus times. Second of all, baby steps. A lot of the baseball writers should really change the way they look at everything, but it’s a long, slow process.
- darrell bishopJJ Hardy is apparently available. The Jays need to do whatever possible to aquire this guy. The Brewers want young pitching, the Jays have some young pitching, both bullpen help and starters in AAA. One of Accardo or League. And one of Rickey Romero, or Brad Mills could be put into a package to solidify the SS position. Im thinking this could be a move for 2010 than next year. The Jays will have Marcum, McGowan and Litsch, plus Cecil will be ready, thats plenty of starters.
MW: The Jays need to do whatever possible to acquire this guy? You do realize you’re talking about J.J. Hardy, right?
- DennyYes, fools.
So far, we have: 1 voter who didn’t think Lincecum was one of the top 3 pitchers in the AL (not to mention 9 who couldn’t find room for Santana); 3 voters who didn’t think Halladay was one of the top 3 pitchers in the AL (and how is the league leader in walks in anyone’s top 3?); and 3 voters who thought Volquez was a rookie. And these people are being paid to cover the game.
This isn’t to say that the BBWAA members are dummies. We’ve just seen time and time again they just vote like fools, looking at junk stats and giving out awards based on simplistic narratives. (I think Mauer will be criminally underrated–he’ll probably finish second on his team. Again–and will lose my mind if it’s not unanimous for Pujols.)
Like I said, I’d rather read what someone who clearly gives a lot of thought to these things has to say about his own choices.
MW: I think a lot of the problems that old-school writers and reporters have with the new-school ways of looking at the game and their proponents are attitudes like these. You catch more flies with honey. By the way, prepare to lose your mind.
- Michaeli guess this is how i’m lookin at it mike,
you watched doc pitch all year as we did. from the start right to the finish could you really expect anyone in mlb pitch better than he did. please…
complete games, shutouts, 8 & 9 inning wins & losses, continually pitching hd. to hd. vs the best div. in mlb
you know what he was…. i’ll tell you… he was fergie jenkins this yr that’s who. i know that you don’t have to look up some of his past great seasons to know what i’m talkin’ about.
and for my money mike, the best athlete this city has had yr. in yr. out since at least the 70′s.. most consistent & also most dominant. he’s money my baseball friend that’s what doc is…
later…
MW: He is, indeed, money.
- darrell bishopbut modern day fergie this yr. to clarify mike. obviously can’t compare starting pitching stats from then to now…
- darrell bishopnow i’m done…
thanks for the great yr. by the way mike. enjoyed that immensely.
until next yr…..
Mike…Another Earl Weaver gem..Hope I’m the first to tell you this one..Back in the 70′s, the Orioles had a player named Pat Kelly and he was a very pious fellow. Earl was going bananas one game in the dugout with the cussing and the whole production, with something that annoyed him. Kelly approaches Weaver and calmingly says, “Earl you have to learn to walk with the Lord.” Earl replies, “Shut up Kelly, you got to learn to walk with the bases loaded.”.Always got a chuckle from that one, and as you answered me last week, Mike, who isn’t an Earl Weaver fan? …I modified the Weaver expletive, as you probably already deduced, Mike…Thanks and hope you got a laugh out of it.
- chris m.What a ***..Flash in the pan boy wonder, Cliff Lee wins the Cy Young award..It amazes me that Roy Halladay has only won this Award once..He is a horse, Cliff Lee is a donkey..I will be utterly shocked if Lee wins 15 games next year..
Halladay has 9 CG..Two of them shutouts..More IP, 206 SO, and a history of winning and yet he doesn’t win..It has got to be because he pitches in Toronto..If he is pitching for the New York Yankees he wins this year..
We have had many conversations regarding wins and pitchers..Cliff Lee wins the Cy Young award because he has more wins..His run support was 5.58..Roy Halladay lost many games because the Jays couldn’t hit..The Jays scored 2 runs or less in 8 of Halladays 11 losses..Two games this guy looses 1-0..I think these guys voting on the Cy Young Award are not doing their homework and just checking off the box on a whim..
Wins do matter..Is sucks a** but its a fact..Cliff Lee will be overpaid for the rest of his career because of this award….
MW: The Cy Young has nothing to do with “history of winning” or being a “flash in the pan”. If Halladay goes 20-11 with the Yankees, Lee still wins the award this year.
- gumpMike, which SP would you get on the free agent market since A.J Burnett opted out? The SP you would get out of this group: Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets?
MW: Out of that group, I think I’d be the most comfortable with Sheets, though fingers would be crossed at all times.
- andrewThus far, I have been correct on all six of my picks for the post season awards (so have you for that matter). I’m picking Justin Morneau of the Twins for my AL MVP. After losing Santana and Hunter, the Twins never would have come so close to a playoff spot without Morneau carrying them all year long. In the NL, I know Albert Pujols is the sexy pick, but Ryan Howard was just incredible the last month of the season. The Phillies needed all he could give, seeing they barely won the division, so I’m picking Howard.
The Friday November 14 edition of USA Today is predicting the Jays wind up with Ben Sheets and Milton Bradley. I can’t see it.
The three sportswriters who left Halladay off their Cy Young ballot should be ashamed.
Do you really have indoor plumbing in your igloo?
MW: Congrats on going six-for-six, it’s just a shame that you didn’t make those first six predictions publically.
- Jim in OhioWhatever happened to just going to a ball game game to watch baseball?
Whatever happened to people just realizing how lucky we are in this part of Ontario to have MLB – win or not it is just such a great thing to be able to pack up on a weekend or whenever and head out to watch Major League Baseball.
Think about it – there is only one, just one MLB team that does not play in the USA and that one team is in Toronto!
The next best thing to being there at a game – baseball is the one and only sport that can be truly enjoyed over the radio. With the crew we have at the Fan 590 we are indeed lucky!
Give it a rest some of you as to win, win all the time and take some time to realize just how fortunate we are to have MLB in Toronto.
Take some time just to enjoy the game and the unbelievable skill involved to play it.
Miss hearing your “pipes” over the air-waves there Mike and am counting the days till “Spring Training”!
Thanks!
MW: The days of going to a game simply to enjoy going to a game are long since past for most fans of major-league sports.
- Bob from BurlingtonMike…I often wondered if the GTA could have a triple-A ball team, then I see the attendance for the AHL’s Marlies and I end up answering my own question. The OHL’s St. Mike’s Majors and my beloved Brampton Battalion(currently on a 13 game winning streak)can’t draw flies but it must come down to the fact that it’s the Leafs or nothing. I remember talking to Mike Hogan on the bullpen one morning and bemoaning the attendance at Brampton Excelsior’s lacrosse games and the fact that it’s the same guys who played in the NLL in the winter league. When Hogie asked for my take on it, I said that a huge reason I think the Rock draw well is because of the fact they play in the “home of the Leafs and Raptors” and it’s considered big time, whereas the Excelsior’s play “way out in cow country.” Oh well, a lot of people missed out when Brampton won the Mann Cup in 4 straight over a New Wesminster team that came in with a record of 25-1. Do you think a triple-A ball club would sink or swim here in the GTA Mike with the other teams mentioned above struggling for crowds?
MW: There is not a chance that a minor-league baseball team would survive in Toronto.
- chris m.Mike, are you surprised that CC Sabathia didn’t jump at the yankees offer?
MW: No.
- andrewMike,
- JordieI hate the Yankees…
Hey Mike
I was reading a post about the Chicago Cubs and it said they were looking into the possibility of signing Randy Johnson. I just wanted your insight on a move like this, personally i dont like it because the guy is 45 and is slowing down i just think hed be to much of a risk.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081115&content_id=3680965&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
MW: The amount of risk depends on the investment the Cubs make in him.
- JamesHi Mike,
Hope you are having an enjoyable off-season! The World Series just ended about two and a half weeks ago and I’m already going through baseball withdrawl! I can’t wait for Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic (already ordered my tickets for the WBC!).
I’ve read all your blogs and don’t recall seeing this question asked or answered yet, apologies if I have missed it. Have the rosters for the WBC been named yet? If not, do you happen to know when they will announce the rosters?
MW: Rosters haven’t been announced yet, and I don’t know when they will be.
- DarcyHow much money can the yankees spend. Who will they try to get?
MW: They can spend as much as they want, and they’ll be trying to get everyone – Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, Teixeira, Manny, Burrell – everyone.
- Justin JaysMW: Right now, the Jays have one bad contract (Rolen), maybe two (Wells), and I wouldn’t say they have few prospects at all. Nor do I think there’s a “somehow” involved in J.P. keeping his job but yes, if the Jays have a mediocre season he’ll be fired. Not that they had a mediocre season this past year.
Right now the Jays have a bunch of position players that aren’t going to do us too much good on the trading block. We’ve got your ‘one bad contract’ in Scott Rolen–who you called the greatest Blue Jay ever when he first came. But we’ve had ‘one bad contract’ or more for quite a while now. Frank Thomas, anyone? Corey Koskie? David Eckstein? Shannon Stewart? OK, Stewart didn’t cost us much financially. But he sure cost us a lot when he was playing. Ricciardi has a knack for pitching, which is great. But he’s got a tin ear when it comes to acquiring position players. And that definitely isn’t great. Unless we compete in 2009, I’m pretty sure he’s gonzo. And he knows it too. And he also knows our chances next season are not terrific. Since Ricciardi tends to panic when he’s backed into a corner, I suspect we’ll be suffering through another bizarro season before he’s finally sent back to Massachusetts and the lunatic leaves the asylum. I expect another sarcastic comment from you on this. But please understand that an awful lot of us down in the cheap seats have had way more than enough of the horrible mix of crass and crazy that is JP Ricciardi.
MW: I understand that fact completely, but that doesn’t make you right. Eckstein was a bad contract? A $4.5 million one-year commitment can’t be a bad contract.
- isabella reyesHi Mike,
Jay Onrait of TSn posted a blog about Manny coming to Toronto (http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/jay_onrait/?id=255816) and I compltely agree with it. What I want to ask you is if there is any chance Rogers thinks like that and would sign Manny?
MW: I don’t think Rogers would think like that, nor do I think that Manny would either solve all the Jays’ problems or pack the house, and I think it’s insane to offer him a five-year, $125-150 million deal like Jay suggests. That said, I really hope they sign him.
- MikeNeeeeeeed Jays Talk…
Booo to the lack of fans in Canada to warrant a year long program.
Couple questions for you regarding next year…
1) If Cecil impresses enough in the spring does he have a realistic chance of making the squad considering his pitch counts have been so limited (10.1 – A+, 77.2 – AA, 30.2 – AAA in 2008)… Or do you think even if he shows hes got the stuff they would continue stretching his arm out in Vegas (hopefully not by throwing dice)?
2) Scott Campbell had been playing some 3bag in the AFL… Do you potentially see him being a younger, higher upside “Rolen insurance” then Bautista in ’09… Or do you think they will stick him in the minors a little longer to improve his D?
Anyways, good to hear your vacation went well. Enjoy the break.
Ah, and I gotta throw this out there… Lyle Overbay, B.J. Ryan and Adam Lind for Adrian Gonzalez… Reasonable?
MW: 1 – I think that if he shows that he’s got the stuff he may make the team and do what Shaum Marcum did in 2007. 2 – Bautista AND Joe Inglett are the Rolen insurance. I think Campbell needs to at least see AAA before everyone starts to fall all over themselves about him. And as for the trade proposal, the Padres would never do it.
- Andrew (Guelph)hi Mike;
Would give the AL MVP nod to Hamilton in Texas and the NL MVP to Carlos Delgado for resurgurging the mets this year, thx for the great blog.
MW: Neither of them will win. I don’t think Delgado did much resurgurging for the Mets, by the way, just for himself.
- robert.sMike…What’s your favourite uniform (NL or AL) or phrased differently, what team’s uniform to you, looks the sharpest? Past uniforms may be included….I like the present day Cardinal’s home whites with the red caps, not black, on a bright sunny day at Busch Stadium..they just seem to glow…thanks Mike.
MW: I have always liked the Cards’ home unis, with the birds on the bat, but how can you go against the Blue Jays 92-93 duds?
- chris m.In regard to post #36, I did make those predictions publically on my local radio show. Truth be told, I think this year selections were rather easy. The rookie and manager of the year awards, along with the AL Cy Young were no brainers. I can see where Webb may have given Lincecum a run for the NL Cy, but Lincecum was the better choice and may have sealed the deal when he struck out nine Dodgers in a row on the final weekend of the season.
Enjoy the long winter. See you next April if you still have the blog. The number of post on this blog is approaching 20,000. I can’t believe you had the patience to read them all.
MW: You and me both.
- Jim in OhioYea you may be right..However, Cliff Lee had a comeback season and how much could that have factored in?..These guys are still human and capable of making up their minds due to other factors..
Carpenter won the CY Young over Willis a few seasons ago even though Willis had more wins and a better ERA..Carpenter’s career appeared to be over but returned to MLB and won the Cy Young..
MW: I don’t think Lee’s comeback from a poor season had anything to with it. When Carpenter won over Willis, Carpenter had been the big-buzz candidate all season long, and led the league in wins or was tied for the lead until Willis passed him the last week of September. Also, Carpenter had half as many losses as Willis (21-5 to 22-10).
- gumpWhats up with Dontrelle Willis anyway?..He had a bad knee last I heard..Is he washed up?..He got hammered last season with the Tigers..He didn’t pitch much and I think he went to the minors as well…
A fit for the Jays perhaps?..His salary is 12mil or so…Maybe too much to take a chance on..
MW: He has $22 million left on his contract for two years. WAY too much on which to take a chance.
- gump