2:05 AM Eastern
Well, I’m back. For a week, anyway, until Yom Kippur takes me away for another day.
First off, thanks so much to those of you who spent the month of September voting for Tom Cheek. I got an e-mail from Tom’s wife Shirley the other day, thanking me for providing the link and helping out, but the true credit goes to all of you out there for placing the votes. The final tally will be announced on Monday, and I’m hoping that we got Tom up over 100,000, which would be the highest total in the history of the balloting. With a vote total that high, Tom’s credentials would be impossible to ignore, I hope.
Anyway, some observations about the first couple of days of the post-season, though I’ll admit I didn’t see a lot of Wednesday’s action.
The Brewers have really surprised me with their lack of offense so far. They’re a team that’s built on the power bats of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy. At least they are now that their rotation is CC Sabathia and prayer. Mike Cameron has twice failed to chase down fly balls over his head, one of which was extremely costly (in Game 1). Granted, those were two tough, tough plays, but Cameron is supposed to be one of the game’s best centrefielders, and the game’s best centrefielders make those catches.
Sabathia spit the bit in Game 2, but how long could he have been expected to keep going out and dominating on three days’ rest? Credit Cole Hamels and Brett Myers for shutting down that Milwaukee offense, especially in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park, and a little Hawaiian Punch was all Myers needed today. That Hawaiian Punch, though, shouldn’t have happened. Shane Victorino got to the plate two batters after Sabathia WALKED THE PITCHER with two out. You just can’t do that.
By the way, thanks to Randy in Moncton for getting me to check out Sabathia’s career post-season numbers. They’re incredibly craptastic. After tonight, he’s made five starts in the playoffs and has pitched exactly 25 innings. The quick math says that’s five innings per start. In those 25 innings, he’s allowed 22 earned runs for an ERA of 7.92. He’s allowed 33 hits and 22 walks for a WHIP of 2.20. He’s struck out 24, which is good on a per-inning basis, but not so good on a K/BB ratio basis, and he’s allowed four homers. I know, I know, REALLY small sample size (25 innings relative to almost 1,700), but wow.
The Cubs have looked horrible so far, their ninth-inning too-little, too-late rally tonight notwithstanding. All that rally did was extend the post-post-game from about two minutes to closer to an hour (thanks for keeping the phone calls coming!). The Cubbies, with their “backs to the wall” having lost the first game of a best-of-5 at home, kicked the ball all over the field in a five-run Dodgers second, an inning in which no runs would have scored had the Cubs been able to turn a routine double-play ball.
I loved Rafael Furcal’s two-out bases-loaded bunt single in that big inning, but I still don’t think the Jays should sign him. Nor do I think the Jays should sign Ryan Dempster, though his price may have come down after is seven-walk performance (including TWICE walking the pitcher) in the opener.
Despite the warm, fuzzy feelings that the ninth-inning rally has provided the Cubs’ faithful, and the warmer and fuzzier ones that a great start by Rich Harden on Saturday would provide, they’re in a WORLD of hurt right now. Far more of one than the Brewers, who are at least heading home down two-zip. But then, the Brewers don’t really have any pitching left.
Evan Longoria certainly was up to the task in the Rays’ first-ever playoff game this afternoon. Gary Gaetti was the last player to homer in each of his first two post-season at-bats. Here’s hoping that Longoria doesn’t stray from the path of debauchery and lose all his baseball prowess, as Gaetti did. I can’t believe that a team can win in the playoffs with Dan Wheeler closing out games, but we shall see.
And how about that young Jason Bay fellow, huh?
In case you’re wondering, I believe that the Red Sox and Phillies are the two best teams in these playoffs, which doesn’t mean that they’ll meet in the World Series or that I think the Red Sox will win it (I think they’re the best team). It’s funny, I was having a conversation with someone here at the Fan during the Cubs game about the Red Sox, and the fine young gentleman to whom I was talking thought that Boston would win the whole thing. He started talking about things like experience, and how they were a different team now that Manny was gone. I asked him why the Red Sox couldn’t win simply because they have the most talent, the best players? We don’t really need to look for deeper meaning in things. Sometimes the best teams win because they’re the best.
I have no clue who is going to play in the World Series, let alone who is going to win it, because winning a seven-game series doesn’t prove a thing, let alone a five-gamer. Just remember the 1985 Blue Jays. In the first year of the best-of-seven League Championship Series, the Jays ran out to the three games to one lead that would have won them every other LCS played to that point in history. But it was a best-of-seven, and they couldn’t close out the Royals. So the Jays were better in the best-of-5, but the Royals were better in the best-of-7.
If you’re going to make me pick, I think it SHOULD be the Red Sox beating the Phillies, but I have my doubts that it’ll shake out that way.
There won’t be a Blue-Jay-A-Day Pre-Pre-Game show until at least the beginning of next week, due to timing issues, but I’ll keep you posted on that. Friday, the Argo game means that we’ll be joining Game 2 of the Red Sox-Angels series in progress around 10:30 Eastern or so, and we’ll do phones afterwards.
Here’s tonight’s post-post-game “The Playoff Talk” (for lack of a better name), for your listening pleasure:
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Until then, reasonable, rational comments are always welcome!
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
87 Responses to “Heard You Missed Me”
SN 590
Get The Latest Update
Click here to subscribe to Wilner's blogGet Wilner’s blog by Email
Archives
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
Hi, Mr. Wilner,
Don’t you just hate ads that jump around and cover up what you’re reading online? It’s like the marketing people don’t respect their writers… or readers.
MW: It’s not about respect, I don’t think, it’s just the cost of doing business.
- MoyashiWell, half of my Rays-Cubs prediction is starting to look really bad…
Are the Phils really a better team than the Furcal and MannyBManny Dodgers? Furcal completely changes that team, giving them speed and OBP at the top of the lineup. (And a fine, fine glove to boot.) Why don’t you want him playing for Toronto again? (Is he a bigger injury risk than, say, resigning Burnett? Will he cost as much?)
As for Wheeler, isn’t it smarter for Maddon to use Balfour and Howell to get out of those real jams (like yesterday’s bases loaded 6th)? Keeping Wheeler as the “closer” means other, better arms will get into those high leverage situations where it really counts. (A good bullpen is important, but the cult of the closer has gone too far.)
MW: The Phillies are really a better team than the Furcal and Manny Dodgers, yes. At least I think so. Why don’t I want him playing for the Jays? It’s not that I don’t want him playing for the Jays, it’s that I don’t want the Jays giving him a four-year deal for about $44 million or so. And the cult of Furcal as an on-base guy is starting to go too far. You’re right about Balfour and Howell getting to pitch higher-leverage innings, but the 9th can often be the highest-leverage inning, and those guys will be gone.
- Michaelhey mike;
Agree that Peavy would be a good target for a trade, but would be a mistake to trade Lind in any capacity, this kid has huge potential and upside, maybe a package of scott downs, bj.ryan and lyle overbay and Tallet would be enough to land peavy. Start Lind @ first base to give Snider lf and hope to sign one of Giambi/ibanez/ or hopefully Manny ramierez if enough salary can be dumped(if overbay and bj are traded), thanx for the blog,
MW: That package isn’t close to enough to land Peavy. If I can get that guy, I have no problem trading Lind. There is NO player about whom it can be said that it’s a mistake to trade him “in any capacity”.
- robert.sMike,
Just don’t understand why you wouldn’t sign Furcal if the resources are available. He is by far the best SS available. Coming off a major surgery there is risk, but in the same sense you may be able to pick him up for a minor discount. Reed made out ok, Furcals ok is better than what the Jays have right now. When AJ opts out I use his money and take a run at Furcal. Sign some reclamation projects, and see what our young guns have for 2010.
MW: You don’t overpay to sign a guy just because he’s the best one available.
- DennyHey Mike
Just catching up on the blog and i thought i’d put my 2 cents in regarding the criticsm Lyle Overbay has received all season long.
Some fans contend that the Jays can’t be a playoff team with Overbay at first. Have a look at the Dodgers this year. Loney hit 289 with a 338 on base, 35 doubles and 13 homeruns and LA made the playoffs. Overbay isn’t an elite 1B but he is a great defender, he gets on base and provides some extrabase pop. In order for the Jays to contend, they do need a substantial upgrade offensively, but it doesn’t necessarily have to come at 1B. Overbay is probably an average firstbasemen, and with all the other problems the team has i was a little confused about all the venon directed his way this season. The biggest problem the Jays have is trying to compete against the Yanks and the Bosox with an average GM.
Did i read a comment about the Jays possibly acquiring Peavy in a trade. Unload the farm (its not that good anyway), bring in Jake, take AJ’s money and spend it on a bat. What are the rumors here???
MW: There aren’t any rumours – just that the Padres are looking to cut salary and will make Peavy available. How many of the Jays’ prospects have you seen play?
- rick“He started talking about things like experience, and how they were a different team now that Manny was gone. I asked him why the Red Sox couldn’t win simply because they have the most talent, the best players? We don’t really need to look for deeper meaning in things. Sometimes the best teams win because they’re the best.”
Did you remind him that they won two WS when Ramirez was there?
Anyway, I never got why, when it comes to sports, people so quickly like to jump to the experience/heart/guts/’wanting it more’/leadership/etc reasons for why a team wins (or loses). Not that those things necessarily mean nothing, exactly, but for some reason it’s endemic to sports culture to invoke those things, and overlook obvious factors like talent, skill, luck.
MW: I think it’s about hero worship and idolatry, myself. People get more invested if they believe the people they’re watching have these super-human intangible qualities about them. Yes, I did remind him that the Red Sox won two World Series with Manny.
- Flaming MoeMike,
Can Manny lead the Dodger Blue into the WS? He made a huge difference to the Dodgers after his arrival.
Cubs are probably feeling the weight of pressure, which is causing the best team in the NL over the past 6 months to turn their season into one that will be seen as a disappointment by their fans.
So far, I am getting a sense of the Dodgers riding a Colorado like momentum through the NL playoffs, and the Rays somehow capping this season with a trip to the Series. Could we have our first non-sellout of a World Series game in who knows how long if the Rays make it?
MW: We could. As for Manny, he’s not the one who has led the Dodgers to their 2-0 lead so far. I’d say the Cubs are more responsible for the Dodgers’ lead than anything else, but the L.A. torchbearers so far have been James Loney, Russ Martin and, yes, Chad Billingsley.
- Aaron KerFor the life of me, I can’t see what you’ve got against Dan Wheeler. Throughout the year you’ve said things like he’s a “dime-a-dozen” guy and generally act like he’s no good.
Yes, last year he was horrible, but look at his numbers in Houston. And look what he did this year – he was better than BJ Ryan, yet you obviously believed that BJ Ryan could be the closer on a playoff team. Why not Wheeler? Is this a personal issue?
Sorry to go off about Dan Wheeler of all people, but in these playoffs I’d rather have Wheeler closing for me than Saito or Torres.
MW: Well, Torres, yeah, but what do you have against Saito? He had a rough night last night but he has a career WHIP under 1.00 and had a better year than Wheeler did this season. Dan Wheeler is a very average guy who had a fantastic year, that’s all.
- Jay Moneyhey mike,
really enjoying the playoff so far. not alot of close games so far but that’s ok.
i’m liking who’s winning so far so it’s ok for me.
really interested in seeing how this angels/bosox series finishes up. if l.a. wins tonite who do you like in that series?
i’m not a dodgers fan but it’s just great to see that uniform out on the field in october all the same. been a while for sure since the’ve gone to the nlcs. must be in the 80′s i’m thinkin’
had to laugh last night. watched the end of that ball game last night. head up stairs to listen to the espn post game show on the radio and just as i’m about to turn the radio off as they’re signing off at 1am i hear…. “mike wilner here with your post, post game playoff radio show…”
so another hour of radio listening thanks to you.
you’re unbelievable my friend. just love it!
later….
darrell.
MW: The post-post game never sleeps. The last time the Dodgers were in the NLCS was 1988, when they wound up winning the World Series.
- darrell bishopHey Mike,
Mets are looking for a closer and may be willing to deal 3B Wright. How does Rollen and Ryan for Wright sound ?
MW: That will NEVER happen. Unless Omar Minaya wants to see how quickly he can get fired after signing a three-year extension.
- tonyMike, Im not gonna lie. Im going to still be talking blue jays more than the playoffs. lets face it, to play 162 games and then have a freakin best of FIVE for the first round is a joke. nhl and nba have seaons 1/2 as long, playoffs with half the league invited, and yet somehow they manage to make even the first round 7 games. i dont get it. the nationals could easily beat anyone of these teams in a seven gamer let alone a five gamer. one hot pitcher who goes twice and a couple hot hitters..and there you go.
as for my jays question..comment..of all the jays commodities that may be traded…i agree with you that lind may be the best part for several reasons.
1. he’ll likely get the greatest return.
2. there are things about his plate approach that scare me and im not sure if he will correct them. specifically, Lind is a guy who works great at bats until he gets three balls. after that point, i dont know if he thinks the pitcher is gonna automatically throw a strike or what..but all of a sudden his strike zone expands. it gets even worse on 3-2 pitches where the pitcher basically has to throw the ball in the dirt or over his head to get him to not swing. hes 25 and im just not sure if he’s ever gonna be a high obp guy. i see him as a useful player but he’s going to have to hit 300 to be above average with his walk totals and im not sure he’s that type of hitter year to year. do you see what im talking about with his 3-2 counts? it’s uncanny. but he will alternatively take a 1-2 close pitch for a strike. i seriously think he’s guessing whether or not the pitcher is gonna throw a strike or not before the pitch based on the count…
as far as free agents, I seldom hear the name Bobby Abreu talked about. He more fits the mold of a guy who can play a position and at times DH. hell hit for a decent average and power, and he has a great batting eye. you stick him in the outfield or platoon dh with him, trade lind for some prospect or put lind at DH..and let travis develop.
MW: I like Abreu a lot, but I’d be looking for a guy with more power to fit the Jays’ needs. As for Lind, I don’t share the same deep concern about him that you do. I don’t think, either, that he ever guesses whether or not the pitcher will throw a strike.
- sammy jalazaiOn Rosenthal’s blog, he said that Hardy will be traded this offseason to make room for Alicides Escobar.
A shortstop like that doesn’t come around everyday. I would be willing to trade Cecil straight up for him and I think the Brewers would do it.
MW: I’m sure the Brewers would do it, but I don’t think the Jays would. Hardy has a career OPS+ of just 99 and is coming off his best year ever. He only has two years left before free agency and in this, his career year, hit just .276/.320/.444 against righties. That’s not bad, especially given what he’d be replacing, but two years of that isn’t worth Brett Cecil.
- Jim BHi Mike
Just thinking – why did the Jays constantly go with Mench and Wilkerson when they had Buck Coats (.286, 7 HR, 44 RBIs)in AAA?? What are Coats’ chances of making the big league squad in 2009?
MW: Good question, and almost zero (at least, the chances of him making any sort of real contribution).
- MarkMike, I have read and heard you say that Doc had the better season or that he at least deserves to be in the discussion for the Cy Young with Lee. I am going to take it one step further and say that not only did Doc definitively have the better season but it’s really not even close. Sure 22-3 looks amazing, but I just find it a little weird that smart baseball fans like you and so many others would rail on W-L as an indicator of any kind but then when it comes down to actual judgment time, people go right back to their ingrained logic of “22-3 beats 20-11 any day” as you said in a comment. Sure 22-3 is ridiculous. You know what’s also ridiculous? 9 Complete Games!
Here is how Doc compares to Lee in all the pitching categories I could find:
9 CGs vs 4 for Lee
2.78 ERA vs. 2.54
4.72 run support vs 6.13
2 more GS
lower WHIP
23 more IP
36 more Ks
better K/BB
better K/9
lower P/PA
lower P/IP
way better GB/FB ratio
lower opp. OPS and OBP
way lower opp. BA
higher AGS (avg game score)
Basically Doc blows Lee out of the water in every single category except ERA and W-L which everyone claims to hate. So basically, even if everyone decides to throw W-L out the window, a vote for Lee then is a vote saying that you value ERA over a WHOLE SET of stats that give a better overall picture.
The stats above don’t even
include qualitative stuff like Lee pitching in a worse division against worse teams in lower leverage situations each inning. Meanwhile Doc has pitched in the best division with at least 5 starts against BOS, TBR and NYY going 10-6 against them and constantly feeling like he needs to throw a shutout if he wants to win. And let’s say you don’t want to punish a pitcher for having more run support, well Doc would STILL have the better season.
Like I said, it’s not even close. Roy Halladay is the 2008 Cy Young.
MW: No, he’s not. Roy Halladay was the best pitcher in the American League this season, but he’s not going to win the Cy Young.
- ShawnMike……Do you think it was tacky of the Milwaukee GM to send a thank you message to fired manager Ned Yost to thank him for leaving the Brewers ” in a position to succeed”? ( My quotes may not be verbatim, but I’m sure you get the gist of it.)
MW: No, I thought it was nice.
- chris m.Hey Mike,
I got to work today and after settling in I immediately went to your website strictly out of habit (it’s been a daily ritual since you started the blog) and was pleasantly surprised to see your latest entry! I hope you continue during the playoffs at least every other day to let us in on your thoughts.
I think you’re dead on about the Red Sox and the Phils, by the way. I hate praising the Red Sox because I consider them the Yankees Jr. but you can’t deny they have a damn good team. Oh, and the Mike Cameron thing.. I kind of think the reason he’s so good is he’s SUPER fast and that makes up for a lot of bad reads. I understand the first one was well hit but his first step was off and then he totally banana’d it after that point. I was kind of amazed he almost made the catch after all of that.
Thoughts?
MW: Banana’d?
- Scott BWhy are there so many off-days this postseason? Seeing as the regular season ended in September, it would be nice not to have to play a whole other month into November.
Do the Angels and Red Sox really need a day off between games 1 and 2?
MW: Someone has to have an extra day off, because they don’t want four games on the same day.
- ZackMike…Do you think pulling himself from the line-up a day or two before a Yanks/Red Sox series(with a questionable injury) was the last straw for Francona and led to the Manny Ramirez trade? That would seem to be a huge faux pas in Red Sox nation, with that being arguably the greatest rivalry in North American sports. I think the Fenway faithful could put up with the baggy pants, long dreadlocks, the follies on defense etc. It just got lumped into that overused cop-out line “Manny being Manny” then he would hit one 500 ft. onto Lansdowne St. and all was forgiven. But I guess Francona and Epstein and maybe his teammates were fed up. Maybe Mike, you have more inside knowledge of the lead-up to the eventual trade?…Having said all that, he’s going to Cooperstown and always turns it up in October…Dodgers/Red Sox World Series..sounds like fun!!…..Thanks
MW: I don’t have much more inside info on the Manny thing, but the “knee injury that wasn’t” was more than likely the last straw, yes.
- chris m.Hi Mike, not a playoff question, but I will pose it to you anyhow.
Why have you mentioned that the Jays have a solid chance at landing Jake Peavy? Do you have info I don’t? Did the Padres say he was available and did the Jays say they were interested and is there a potential match of players? So many questions…
While we are playing the trading game, how does the following silly plan sound: BJ Ryan, Lind and a pitching prospect (Cecil? A Romero?) for Jose Reyes. Then the Jays sign Giambi and a mid-range pitcher or two (Brad Penny, Pedro), and throw Snider in the outfield.
Everyone healthy and you are looking at a pretty good team. Course you could have said the exact same thing about this year’s team. Ha!
Honestly, I have no clue in the slightest if this is enough for Reyes, or if he is even available.
Enjoy your winter, Mike!
MW: That’s certainly the closest anyone has come to putting together a package that would actually get Reyes, but I’m not sure why everyone seems to believe that he’ll be available. As for Peavy, see above.
- RoryMike, I think it would be a bad idea to get Jake Peavy. If you look at his home and road splits, his ERA at home 1.74 and his ERA on the road is 4.28. That tells me that Jake Peavy gains a huge advantage because of his home park, which is a pitcher friendly park and the Rogers Centre is more of a hitters park. Your Thoughts?
MW: My thoughts are that you’re only looking at this year. Peavy’s career road ERA is 3.80 with a 1.388 WHIP. Road opponents hit .246/.317/.420 against him, which ain’t bad. Opponents hit .249/.322/.388 against A.J. Burnett this year overall, as a comparison.
- andrewHow much do the jays have in the offseason. I believe you said around 30 million, but MLBTR has them at around 13…
and what is their payroll cap, i hear it’s at 102 mil.
thanks mike
MW: We don’t know what their self-imposed payroll limit is, but I would assume it’s around $100 million. They have much more than $13 million to spend in the off-season.
- JakeMike….I think the next episode of that T.V. show, “Whatever Happened To..? will feature Justin Verlander. Mr. Wilner: What went wrong in Motown with that budding star? But I suppose Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson or Gary Sheffield could easily star on that same show. I like Cabrera’s offence at his age, but I think he goes to the same buffet tables as Andruw Jones and Prince Fielder and his weight could impede continued success if not monitored. Thanks.
MW: Verlander had a bad year, just like most of his teammates. It happens.
- chris m.Okay I know the last thing you want to do is debate me about Dan Wheeler, but you’re simply not correct in this:
2005: 73.1 IP/53H/69Ks/19 BB/ 2.21 ERA
2006: 71.1 IP/58 H/68 Ks/24 BB/2.52 ERA
2007: 49.2 IP/46 H/56 Ks/13 BB/5.07 ERA
2008: 66.1 IP/44 H/53 K/22 BB/3.12 ERA
I don’t know about you, but these numbers look pretty good. 2007 is clearly the outlier, and its not even that bad (I don’t look at ERA for a reliever). You think this is average? I’ll check, but I’m pretty sure these numbers compare favourably with Justin Speier’s – the guy you said was the best non-closer in baseball.
I’ll take 7 Dan Wheelers and have the best bullpen in baseball. Dan the Man baby!
MW: 2007 is the outlier? He was better that year than he was in 2006. You’re right, though, the last thing I want to do is debate you on Dan Wheeler.
- Jay MoneyThanks for the response, I do appreciate the time you take to respond to us. But my question was, can you look at those numbers and say that Dan Wheeler is an average guy?
I did go back and compare his numbers against Speier’s – over the past 4 seasons, Speier has an average WHIP of 1.16, Wheeler has an average WHIP of 1.08. Why is Speier the best non-closer in baseball while Wheeler is a dime-a-dozen guy? Is it because Speier was a Blue Jay?
MW: See, now you went and made me do math. Wheeler actually has had a WHIP of 1.108 over the past four seasons, which isn’t as good as 1.08, but is still really bloody good. It’s true, he’s a lot better than I thought he was. I guess for some reason the Dan Wheeler of 2004 and 2006 sticks in my mind, the one who couldn’t get lefties out to save his life, but he’s definitely turned it around the last couple of years. As for Justin Speier, I never said that he IS the best non-closer in baseball. He WAS the best non-closer in baseball in 2005. Never go more than year-to-year on a reliever.
- Jay MoneyHey Mike,
Did the Jays draft Brad Hawpe as a pitcher?
MW: Yup. In the 46th round in 1997 out of high school.
- Justin W.Hey Mike,
Just a comment that came to my mind….
When that caller from Moncton talked about C.C. and you said “wow thats dedication,” you sounded exactly like Jerry Seinfeld, just to let u know.
MW: I used to get that a lot.
- AndrewRe: Dan Wheeler, I too never understood why you were so anti-Wheeler.
Keith Law was pretty hyped up about Dan Wheeler. He thought the Astros made a horrible deal when they traded him for Ty Wittington. Other than last year, he has been pretty damn good.
MW: Again, he was better in ’06 than he was in ’07. Regardless, Wigginton had a very good year for the Astros, out of nowhere.
- Jim BMike…With all the talk of Jay’s prospect Brett Cecil and possibly other teams asking for him in a trade, one question please? Is Cecil more of a power guy like the Phillies’ Cole Hammels or a Tom Glavine/Jimmy Key type using off-speed and control for success?…thanks
MW: Hamels actually is a guy who uses off-speed stuff and control for success. Cecil is a mid-90s guy.
- chris m.Hey Mike,
A playoff question for you. I remember hearing something about the Phillies having the tiebreaker over the Mets.
I’m just wondering if there are any tiebreakers to determine who wins the playoff if multiple teams are tied with the same record.
I know the NHL uses Head to Head and then # of wins.
The NBA uses head to head and FIFA soccer tournaments uses head to head, goal differntial, # of goals scored, etc.
Thanks
MW: MLB only uses tiebreakers if both teams are going to make the playoffs anyway. If one will and one won’t, they play a one-game playoff, like the White Sox and Twins did. First tiebreak is head-to-head.
- James from MississaugaMike, If clevland indians had a great year your arguement probably would have been that they play in an easier division, you can’t have it both ways. Clevland indians capatilized on Detroits offseason and made a decent finish for a 78 million dollar team. Something the bluejays could not do against the yankees with the best pitching staff and 100million dollar payroll. If you downplay Clevlands decent finish this year while detroit had an off year then why praise the finish that the Jays had in 2006 when a) they missed the playoffs for the 5th straight year under JP and b) Boston was dismantled by injuries. don’t you think that contradicts?
You also make these wacky comparisons with the jays and Minnesota saying that Minnesota wasn’t all that much better lets look at the overall, which you always fail to do, All I have to say is count the amount of times that the jays have played meaningful games in september for the past eight years versus the amount that the jays have played.
I’ve heard you downgrade Tampa’s season by sayin they had plenty of losing seasons, Is it not harder to build a team off draft picks from losing seasons versus building a team through raised revenue, you were the one that said the draft is a crapshoot, yet Tampa has managed to obliterate the odds and to some extent so has Boston with Papelbon Podrolia, Youloulis end results show that the Jays under Richardi unlike the teams in their division and teams in other divisons have not been able to capitalize on a increased payroll or the draft, how can anyone continue to make excuses. Who has JP brought into this organization Equivalent to Evan Languoria, Kevin Youkoulis, Nick Markankis, Justin Morneau.
MW: I can’t do this anymore with you. You change your arguments, ignore points I make that take down yours, you can’t be argued with, so I’m not going to try anymore.
- NeilMike…I know it’s 6 month old news, but here it is anyway. Looking back to April, was it not a form of arrogance for Frank Thomas(or anyone really)to tell your employers “not to worry, I’ll have this hitting a baseball thing down pat by June, so stick with me.” Not to mention the salary I make over that span(one third of 10 million) Imagine a guy mopping floors in a restaurant for a living (for a much lesser wage of course) telling his supervisor that I’ll get these floors cleaned in a couple of months and just tell our customers to overlook the dust and dirt and enjoy their meals..he wouldn’t be around long.
MW: You’re right, that’s six month-old news. You have a point, but when it’s a Hall of Famer with a track record, he can get more rope.
- chris m.Mike…I’ll give you an A for good humour and restraint, essentials for your profession. A few weeks back on Jays Talk a caller wanted to say philosopher but uttered philanthropist.(I don’t know if you remember that one or not) I could practically see your smirk through the radio, but you kept it together smoothly. I was howling with laughter on my end, not at the caller’s error, (nobody’s perfect) but your wry style of handling it. Jerry Seinfeld would be proud
MW: Thanks.
- chris m.Mike…It is rare in baseball,in my opinion, when one guy carries a team to the championship. The 1988 Dodgers always come to mind for me with the out-of-this-world pitching of Orel Hershiser, especially with the light-hitting L.A. bats that summer. Sorry for the hockey and basketball references, but the ’86 and’93 Habs rode Patrick Roy to the Cup and Michael Jordan carried the Bulls more than once. Do any other baseball examples similiar to the ’88 Dodgers jump out at you in your years of following MLB. I’m assuming from the answers you give me on the blog and your spoken answers when I talk to you on radio that our years of following MLB probably overlap the same and our ages are fairly close..( Not Ron Fairly..ha ha ha)…Thanks Mike
MW: Hershiser is a good one, and Mike Scott could have been another had the Astros wound up winning in 1986. Do Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson count as a combo in 2001?
- chris m.Mike, if you were the Mets, would you trade David Wright and/or Jose Reyes this offseason because people seem to blame them for the Mets collaspe this season.
MW: No, I wouldn’t. Those guys are great players who are young and under control for a while. Why should they look to trade them?
- andrewSo now that the voting for Tom Cheek is over, are we gonna start to see “vote for Rochelle Wilner” in big caps at the top of every post?
Mike
MW: No, why would I do that?
- mikeI think folks need to bear in mind when putting together packages for Jake Peavy is that there will be no interest in any of the Jays high salary guys.
They’re looking to cut payroll. Their owner–John Moores–is going through a divorce and assets will likely be split 50-50.
Unless the Jays are willing to pay their salaries–the only Jays the Padres will be interested in are the kiddie corps (although Scott Richmond would likely do very well there).
Best Regards
John
MW: Richmond would, indeed, do well there, and Jesse Litsch would be a superstar.
- John B.What do you think of this trade?
Tor aquires 1B Prince Fielder, and SS Alicides Escobar from the Brewers for Adam Lind, David Purcey, Bradley Mills, Rickey Romero, and Justin Jackson (and maybe Overbay or Ryan. I don’t know if we’d be giving up too much but you get the idea.
If the Jays could resign Burnett for a hometown discount, sign Brad Penny if he’s available, and then sign Manny Ramirez before making the trade with the Brewers then the Jays would be the best team in the league, in my opinion.
Lineup:
1. Alicides Escobar
2. Alex Rios
3. Prince Fielder
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Vernon Wells
6. Travis Snider
7. Aaron Hill
8. Scott Rolen
9. Rod Barajas
Starting Rotation:
Roy Halladay
A.J. Burnett
Brad Penny
Brett Cecil
Jesse Litsch
(When McGowan comes back, move either Cecil or Litsch, whoever’s performing worse)
Do the Jays have enough money to make these moves or half these moves? (assuming they move Overbay, I like Lyle but the more power in the lineup the better A.K.A Prince Fielder)
I wouldn’t mind moving Ryan’s contract if we had to, and moving Brandon League to the closer’s role to free up more money. I might be way off line with these suggestions but the Jays are really close to a very good team and these moves would put them over the top.
So my main questions are, What do you think of the trade, and would we have enough money to make these moves (if or if we didn’t trade Ryan)?
MW: You’re giving up, basically, the entire farm system for three years of Prince Fielder and a young shortstop who has never played above AA, who has no power and who walked 31 times in almost 600 plate appearances this season. Granted, he’s 21 and in AA, but I’m not as sure as anyone else that he’s going to be as awesome as the blogosphere seems to believe. I think I’d need a lot more to deal three of my top four or five pitching prospects. As for the money – assuming Burnett would cost them $12 million, Manny $18 million and Penny, let’s say, $7 million (this year only) while moving Overbay’s $7 million, then you’re just barely OK, cash-wise.
- Ian (not Kinsler)what is the cheapest you could get manny for
What would it take for the blue jays to get Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez(i want names)
MW: You want names? I can’t give you names. Remember, the Pirates asked for Shaun Marcum and Travis Snider for Jason Bay. I think the cheapest Manny comes over for is $50 million over two years.
- JazzMike, how much can the jays afford to spend this season without giving anyone up?
MW: Somewhere between $22 – $30 million.
- gregMike…What in the name of Carl Everett or Milton Bradley was Orlando Cabrera yelling at the Rays’ reliever Balfour for? A little too much caffeine in that White Sox clubhouse, perhaps?..too bad Cabrera couldn’t take a lesson in etiquette from teammate Jim Thome, whose monster blast put his team in the post-season. And he just jogs around the bases with his head down and saves his high-fives for the dugout…Pure class in the mold of Don Mattingly, George Brett and Paul Molitor..all business and leave the chest pumping to the show-offs of the game (and there are lots, unfortunately)
MW: Thome is an awesome guy.
- chris m.is it just me or are the jays okay if they spend ALL Their money on C.C. Sabathia, and than move lind to DH and snider to left field (snider plays better defense). wells is good, rios is good, overbay will rebound i guarantee you. rolen maybe not. but hes the best 3rd baseman defender in the league so hey. shortstop we got hill and 2nd scutaro and inglett. i mean were okay with snider inserted, thats like aquiring a 20 homer guy. all we need to do is sign C.C. BIG Time blow out everyone else with cash.
MW: It’s just you. Given Sabathia’s recent workload, fitness level and the amount of money and years he’s going to demand, he’s going to be a regrettable sign, long-term, for whoever winds up with him.
- RobertM-dub
withe the 30 mil the jays have could they afford all these following players
-javier Valentin
-brad Penny
-Jason Giambi
-ryan Depster/carl pavano
MW: Yeah.
- JazzMike,
Starting Lineup 2009
-RF Alex Rios 300. 30hr 30sb
-2B Aaron Hill 290. 15hr GG
-CF Vernon Wells 300. 30hr GG
-DH Jason Giambi 250. 30hr
-SS Jhony Peralta 275. 25hr
-1B Adam Lind 290. 20hr
-3B Scott Rolen 270. 20hr GG
-C Rod Barajas/J.P. Arincebia?Javier Valentin ???
-LF Travis Snider ???
-SP Roy Halladay
-SP Ryan Dempster
-SP Brad Penny
-SP Dustin McGowan
-SP Jesse Litch/Brett Cecil/Ricky/Davis Romero
Bullpen
-CP Brandon League
-SU Scott Downs
-RP Jesse Carlson
-RP Jeremy Accardo
-RP Casey Janssen
-RP Brian Tallet
-RP Scott Richmond
Bench
-SS John Mcdonald
-INF/OF Joe Inglett
-INF Jose Bautista
-C Javier Valentin
-C Rod Barajas
-INF Marco Scutaro
Pending the Jays sign Jason Giambi, Ryan Dempster, Brad Penny and Javier Valentin
Trade B.J Ryan, Lyle Overbay, David Purcey for Jhony Peralta and Lind moves to first
Mike,
Do you think this is possible and how much of an exaggeration are the stats for the starting 9
MW: It’s possible, financially, but that’s a LOT to give up for Jhonny Peralta. Also, it gives you a 26-man roster (not counting Arencibia), which isn’t allowed. Your stats seem fine, except for Rolen hitting 20 homers and Rios hitting 30, though I don’t know why you’d be so concerned with batting average.
- JazzMike, do you think the Jays need a Jimmy Rollins type player who is a leader on and off the field?
MW: How do you know that Rollins is a leader off the field?
- andrewMike…Looks like the lit fuse on that stick of dynamite called Lou Piniella could go off soon(maybe about 1 a.m. EST if Harden is off his game)..Thought he was going to snap when that reporter reminded him of Fukudome’s offensive(no pun intended) numbers lately…P.S. on the subject of short fuses, maybe your fellow colleague Howard Berger should keep a safe distance from Ron Wilson..he’s not far from going off himself.
- chris m.MW: You’re giving up, basically, the entire farm system for three years of Prince Fielder and a young shortstop who has never played above AA, who has no power and who walked 31 times in almost 600 plate appearances this season. Granted, he’s 21 and in AA, but I’m not as sure as anyone else that he’s going to be as awesome as the blogosphere seems to believe.
Sometimes trades are about risk though and Escobar, in my opinion is low risk and high reward. By the way, he hit 8 homers in AA, so I wouldn’t say he has no power. And besides he’s 21 so his power will probably develop over time aswell as his patience at the plate. As for Fielder, 3 years is still a fairly long time, 3 years of a plus 30 homerun guy in the middle of the order. To me it’s worth the trade, and would instantly put a world series contender on the field. Even if Escobar didn’t work out in 09, they could just go back to their old plan of Scutaro and use Escobar as their leadoff hitter in 2010. The Blue Jays will still have Cecil, Marcum, McGowan, Janssen and Litsch as potential starting pitchers in the future and Snider would be our everyday left fielder in place of Lind, while Escobar would easily make up for the loss of Jackson. I don’t think J.P. would ever make this bold of a trade but in my opinion this would be the best trade the Blue Jays could make this offseason, and it would put them over the top (as long as they still signed two pitchers and a DH). Have I changed your opinion at all Mike?
MW: No.
- Ian (not Kinsler)Hey Mike..
Rev from Thornhill here..you know the Willie Bloomquist guy..anyhow, looks like I won our little gentlemans bet..No start for Reed Johnson..
Rev
MW: But no start for Fukudome, either. It sort of makes me feel a little vindicated that Reed didn’t get the start in this game.
- RevHey Mike, thought I’d chip in my two cents regarding the Peavy trade scenarios.
For the most part, I think Kevin Towers is one of the better GM’s out there, and will be able to extract a ton of value for Jake should he hit the trade market.
I think some of these trade proposals are too low, and we should look to what Dan Haren got as an example of a potential return.
Building from the Dan Haren Trade:
- Two MLB ready pitchers average – good potential (Smith, Eveland —> Purcey, Wolfe)
- Good starting prospect (Anderson —> Romero/Mills)
- Excellent prospect (Gonzalez —-> Cecil/Arencibia)
- Two high upside low minors prospects (Carter, Cunningham —> Ahrens, Ginley)
So, the deal would break down like:
Jake Peavy for Purcey, Wolfe, Romero/Mills, Cecil/Arencibia, Ahrens, Ginley.
Of course, we do know Billy Beane is a master at extracting value, but let’s just say that that’s the deal put on the table. Would you do it Mike?
That’s an awful lot to pay, but the opportunity to acquire one of the game’s top 10 pitches (in my opinion), at age 27 and hold him through his prime (under contract through age 32) is a very rare opportunity.
MW: Remember, Arizona got a major-league ready reliever (Connor Robertson), too. I like how you have broken down the potential offer in comparison to the Haren trade, but it doesn’t have to be that way. If you give a Lind and a Purcey (who I would say outweights either of the Eveland and Smith of last winter), then you probably don’t have to put in a Cecil/Arencibia or an Ahrens. But like you say, the chance to acquire the next four seasons of Peavy is indeed a rare opportunity.
- AlexYa you did say Fukudome wouldn’t start, so I guess we’ll call it a push..
MW: OK.
- RevMike my point is simple, This year you mentioned the Clevland Indians alot as though they were as much of a disappoinment as the Jays lets not forget the Jays payroll is 20miillion dollars more. I think Clevland should be given the Benifit of the doubt given the fact that they have played decent baseball this year and last year they made the playoffs on a limited payroll, and while being in a division with two big spenders. You have made it seem as though Clevland and Colarado small market teams that over achieved last year are as much as a disappoinment as the Jays, who had a much larger payroll.
Did you not degrade Tampa this year by saying that the ten losing seasons contributed to this run, did you not say that the only reason Tampa picked up Pena is because of an injured Norton. The Fact is this Tampa, Clevland, Minnesota, Boston etc all have great draft picks who have contributed to thier playing meaniful games in september. Why do you always mitigate another non playoff season by using small market teams who had a bad year as a barometre of success. At least those small market teams use their drafting ability. Please do add a position player from the Richardi years that can go on this list of names Morneau,Markankis,Youkoulis,Pedroilia
Longoria, etc.
By the way please tell me where you’ve shot down my point and where I change the arguemnt. My point has always been lay off the lower payrolls who have played meaniful games in september, because the jays are no better.
MW: Re-read my response to your last comment.
- NeilThat would be 5 seasons for Peavy, Mike (age 28, 29, 30, 31, 32).
One thing that I just noticed right now, looking over his contract details at cots is that he has a full NTC.
I remember Boras demanding that Manny’s club options be dropped so that he could make a killing on the free agency market.
Peavy’s currently got a $22M club option for 2010 and with escalating salaries, you gotta figure that a 1 year $22M commitment for a 32 year old Jake Peavy would be a no-brainer.
So here’s my question. Let’s say you’re Jake Peavy, and Kevin Towers comes to you saying that the Blue Jays are one of the heaviest suitors.
Do you:
a) Waive your NTC and go
b) Waive your NTC only if the club option is dropped (hit FA sooner)
c) Waive your NTC only if you get years added on top of your current contract
d) Refuse to go
MW: Given that San Diego is cutting payroll and coming off an horrendous season, I probably go, but you never know. I would try to demand that the club option be picked up, actually. $22M in the hand is a good thing to have. I said four years, not five, because of that option (that I don’t think is a no-brainer to be picked up at all).
- AlexWhat is your opinion of the ‘We’ll stick with Scutaro for s/s’ idea? I have no real problems with this, as long as McDonald is brought into the back innings in tight games. Certainly I’d rather see money/trade-bait used to snag a power hitter and another arm than continue to watch the revolving door at short-stop.
Jake Peavy isn’t a bad idea.
I’ve somewhat changed my mind about getting a power hitter. I don’t think this year’s crop of fa players is wonderful, and I also don’t think we have a realistic hope of contending in ’09. If we are going to rebuild for a seson–I’m sick of rebuilding, but there it is!–than maybe better stick with what we have and try and improve them. Save a few bucks for when we have a better chance. We won’t get Texeira. We won’t get Manny. We won’t get Dunn. If our guys do unexpectedly well, then maybe we can trade during the season. But throwing money at some mid-level hitter for next year is a waste in my opinion.
MW: I don’t mind Scoot coming back to play short next year, with McDonald in tow, but I’d prefer if he was hitting in the bottom of the line-up rather than one of the top two spots. I don’t think the Jays will throw money at some mid-level hitter for next year.
- isabella reyesOn the San Diedo note, what are your thoughts on SS Khalil Greene?
Seems to be on the outs with Padre management:
“The San Diego Union Tribune reports that the Padres are pursuing a grievance against Khalil Greene for missing the final two months of the season with a broken hand suffered from punching a storage cabinet at Petco Park.
Greene could be asked to repay as much as $1.47 million of his $4.5 million salary and also lost out on potential playing time bonuses because of the injury”
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/sep/30/padres-greene-self-inflicted-injury/?padres
Plus, he’s coming off a season in which he hit .210 and is due to make $6.5M next season.
Playing at PETCO has really murdered his stats, but as an away hitter, he’s a career .802 OPS vs .658 OPS at home. That’s very impressive from the shortstop position and roughly 100 points higher than Scutaro’s.
You gotta figure salary relief, maybe a bullpen arm and a decent prospect would be enough to get it done.
Perhaps Tallet + Tolisano, while taking on most of salary should be enough.
Not unreasonable to expect a .250/.310/.430 line with 20+ HR’s playing at Rogers Centre I’d imagine. And by most accounts seems to be above average with the glove as well (.976 FPCT, 4.21 RF, .851 ZR vs. John Mcdonald at .967 FPCT, 4.70 RF, .850 ZR).
MW: He’s a very good defensive shortstop, and the power would be nice. It does seem like he’s on his way out of town.
- AlexSorry! Me again.
Just wanted to add that I think the Greene/Peavy scenario in San Diego could play out a lot like the Beckett/Lowell Florida scenario.
The Padres may ask someone to take on Khalil Greene’s salary if they want to trade for Peavy, and Toronto just seems like such a perfect match if that were the case.
They need some pop in the lineup, frontline starting pitching, and a shorstop, and possess a bevy of young talent either just hitting the majors or soon to be knocking on the door.
Also, Blair mentioned a few months back that JP would have interest in Greene should he be made available:
“Jayson Stark says there are rumblings that the San Diego Padres are about to start unloading players so I’m keeping an eye on shortstop Khalil Greene, and so should you. Greene went to the Padres with the 13th pick overall in the 2002 draft, on the selection immediately before the Blue Jays chose Russ Adams. General manager J.P. Ricciardi is on record as saying the team would have chosen Greene if he was available.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080515.WBbaseball20080515132026/WBStory/WBbaseball/
Alright, enough from me for one night. Have a good one Mike!
MW: It’s an interesting take. Though Greene’s contract isn’t the burden that Lowell’s was, it’s possible that Peavy’s price may go down if the Jays were willing to take on extra salary.
- AlexHey Mike,
I was dealing with my annual Jays withdrawal, and I decided to watch a video on the 93 Jays… Something I found interesting that your comments made me think of, is how the broadcasters would refer to the guys with the highest batting average as “the best hitters in baseball.”
It seems like we have come along way from these days… I remember a couple of years ago Bob McCowan saying Ichiro is the best player in baseball, based on that same idea… Even then his lap dogs barked him! (Not that all of his guests are lap dogs)…
MW: It seems as though the game is understood a lot better by a lot of baseball fans these days, but it only seems that way.
- Stevie H.Mike…Pretty gutsy call(accurate or not is a moot point)by the 2nd base ump in the ninth inning of the Brewers/Phillies game. It seems the runner for Phil. just decided to stand up and not slide. That should be his choice one would think and if he wants to risk the ball conking him, the fielder should adjust accordingly..I’m not sure of the actual MLB rules on interference, but Mike if your privy to a rule book could you shed some light on this for me?..Thanks Mike.. Appreciate your time and effort always.
MW: It wasn’t so much that the runner chose not to slide, but that he hip-checked the second baseman when he got to the bag, and that’s interference. It also wasn’t a terribly gutsy call, because it didn’t affect the outcome of the game either way. Whether there’s a run in and a man on 3rd or no runs in and runners on 2nd and 3rd, that trail runner still has to score, as does the batter, in order for the game to continue.
- chris m.I’m not sure the Jays would be well served with Khalil Greene. He may indeed blossom once he leaves PETCO but we’ve seen in Lyle Overbay how a hand injury affects power.
I can’t see Greene raking next season and were he in Toronto I could see a lot of J.P. bashing with Greene batting .240/.290/.370 (stat pulled out of think air).
Best Regards
John
MW: I don’t see him raking, either, but I do see him with a higher OPS and far better defense than Marco Scutaro – and hopefully he won’t be someone Cito Gaston feels should be hitting at the top of the line-up.
- John B.Mike..Just wondering..Did the Blue Jays have the General Motors meet the player on random Saturday mornings this past season? I couldn’t find it on their website this year and usually the Fan590 promoted it when it was approaching. Got to meet Lyle Overbay in 2006 and Tom Henke, Cecil Fielder and Rance Mulliniks in 2007. The kids got their photos taken with the guys and they feed you as well! And two of the GM sites in Brampton were literally a 5 minute walk from the house. Loved talking with Rance about 1985 and the big mid-Sept. Yankee series in N.Y.(I was there when they butchered the Canadian Anthem) And even though we had our limit of things to sign, I asked Rance to sign an extra photo for my mom who always said Rance was her favouite Jay and because of her age and cane and the hot weather,was unable to stand in line and remained at home, he personalized one for her…Great memories from a great guy and even though one has nothing to do with the other, it bothers me when people get nasty about Rance’s broadcasts. There’s a right way to criticize and a wrong way. Don’t like when people get personal with you Mike either…Good people should be treated accordingly and it’s a privilege for us to have you doing this,knowing it takes a lot of your time….thanks
MW: The Blue Jays did do that meet-the-alumnus thing with GM this year, as they did last season. I got to host a few of those a few years back – fun times.
- chris m.Manny for President! Manny for MVP! Manny for Commissioner!
Let’s change the rules and send him to Hall of Fame TODAY! What a talent! He’s simply TOYING with the NL pitchers. To change leagues and murder the pitchers like he has at age 36 is simply remarkable. What a player! What a character! I’ll buy a dog in a few days and name him Manny, that’s how much I’ve fallen in love with Manny’s play. A Genius at the plate!
- BeburgWhat happened to Alfonso Soriano? He’s been terrible in the postseason the past couple years.
I was really pulling for the Cubs but they put together an embarassing performance. It was basically over after the James Loney grand slam in game one. It looked like all their energy was sucked right out after that.
By the way, Did Reed Johnson even play in that series?
MW: No, Reed never got into a game.
- Ian (not Kinsler)Khalil Greene, Mike? As a player, he looks suspiciously like the reincarnation of Alex Gonzalez (who I realize is not dead). Roughly 15-20 homers, .250 average, darned good glove. I liked Alex, but don’t give up anybody (and I mean ANYBODY) good for this guy.
MW: Good comparison, and I can handle that hitting 8th or 9th.
- RoryIf the Jays re-sign A.J., they can trade a Starting Pitcher, keeping Halladay, Burnett and Litsch or McGowan. If Accardo and Janssen will be healthy this spring, they can trade two Relievers, keeping Janssen, League and Downs. If the D.H. they sign can play the outfield, they can trade one, any one. Toronto can do big things this off-season, except, no one has any faith in J.P. to do it right.
MW: I wouldn’t say no one.
- Richard SpackmanMike, I had a nice young man introduce himself to me today as John Lalonde of the Toronto Blue Jays. He has a nephew in my Youth Bowling program in Elmvale. It was cool to meet him and we talked ball for about half an hour. The most interesting thing I learned from him was how important he thinks B.J. Ryan is to the team. I asked if he thought the team would try to move him in the off season and he told me that although many of the saves where scarey, he got the job done most of the time. He also told me that B.J. is so important in the pen to the younger players. Apparently much of the success of the strong pen can be attributed to the strong leadership of B.J.. I found that quite interesting. I also told John how jealous of him that I am, and that I want his job but he is un willing to give it up. He also appreciates you sticking up for him and the organization when anyone is critical of the draft picks. You usually point out the picks that have been successful and the players on the way up that have a bright future.
MW: I like Jon Lalonde a lot, he’s a terrific guy.
- dan from elmvaleTold you Dodgers were going to the WS
…also said Angels were too, though…crap
…anyways, Chad Billingsley forever
your pal,
slobber
MW: Chad certainly did Billingsley it up in Game 2. I don’t think the Dodgers are going to the Series, though.
- slobberfaceDo the Jays have any farmhands in the Hawaii Winter League?
MW: Good question. I don’t believe so.
- JMFirst off, I’d like to begin this post by wishing you and your family a happy and blessed new year.
The Cubs thought so much of Reed Johnson that he never played in their NL division series disaster. Come to think of it, neither did Ted Lilly. Many Blue Jay fans hounded you the first half of the season over the Johnson release in March, it will be interesting to see if the Cubs think he’s worth offering a contract for 2009. I have a feeling he’ll be free to go where he wants, provided they want him.
Before the Playoffs started, my World Series pick was Dodgers versus Angels. Even though the Halos are down 2-0, I’ll stick with it. In fact, even if the Angels are eliminated the ALCS is a very compelling matchup. The upstart Rays against the Manny-less Red Sox, who may be playing for a chance to compete in the World Series against their former teammate that so many of them have dissed in the media in the last two months. Never underestimate the power of a motivated Manny Ramirez. The NLCS is intriguing as well. The Dodgers could win a WS with Joe Torre, the underappreciated one in New York, and the Phillies are trying to become Pat Gillicks latest success story. If the Dodgers win the whole thing, I wonder if anyone in New York will admit they were wrong? Probably not.
MW: About Torre? I don’t think too many rational people in New York thought he was the problem with the Yankees (it was all Alex Rodriguez’ fault). Lilly was going to start Game 4, but I don’t think that Reed’s exclusion from the series means that the Cubs won’t be interested in having him back next season.
- Jim in OhioMW: “…They have much more than $13 million to spend in the off-season.”
I don’t understand. They are at about $90-million now. With the loss of AJ they will be at $80-mil+ they have arbitration with Frasor, Bautista, and League they should be at 85-87-mil. that’s about 13-15mil (if 100-mil is their cap). I don’t know what else they lose.
oh wait…correct me if im wrong..is vernon only going to make 1.5million next year? is that why they have more…im just extremely confused!!! please mike, help me!
MW: I did all the math a few weeks back. I’m not counting Burnett, obviously.
- JakeNone of the Rogers organizations deserves another ounce of support. As soon as NFL training began, the Blue Jays were ignored, i.e. their last game was not televised, and during Sunday playoffs today, the game is not to be found on TV or radio. A pox on all of Mr. Rogers’ businesses. Loyalty works both ways.
MW: I managed to see the Rays-White Sox game and the Red Sox-Angels game, myself. I don’t know that it’s Rogers’ fault that the games are on TBS in the States, which we don’t get here (unless it’s Rogers’ fault that we don’t get TBS).
- M. F. ButteryDidn’t you downplay Kevin Lowe’s stats because he played in the National League?..How come Peaveys stats are so great then?..So the guy has some good stats..He had 10 wins last year..11 in 2006..How come that stat isn’t important?..Two of his last 3 seasons ended with a sub .500 record..
L.A won the division with a record 6 games above .500..Its a pathetically weak division and yet he could still only muster 10 wins?
This guy isn’t worth the money and the Jays would be much better off getting a guy to fill in for a few years until Percey or Cecil or someone else is ready to become the #2 starter..
If wins mean nothing how come big contracts and Cy Young awards aren’t won by guys with great ERA’s and Whip’s?..Sorry Mike there has got to be a reason why and it’s all about wins..
MW: WINS ARE NOT IMPORTANT. As far as gauging a pitcher’s performance, that is. For teams and stuff, yeah, wins are really important.
- gumpWhere is Clevland?
MW: I’m not sure, but Cleveland is on the southern shore of Lake Erie, in northeastern Ohio.
- BrettThe players I would like to see in Jay’s uniforms next year are Peavey and Greene (trade with Padres),Burrell replacing Lind who is used as part of a trade with the Padres, with Burrell and Snider as LF/DH combo., and another mid-level low-risk pitcher. I’m fine with Barajas and Arencibia/Jeroloman as catchers. I’m also assuming Hill is ready to play.
What do you think?
MW: Burrell’s not happening.
- Steve in NJWould this be a fair trade and would the indians/jays do it
To Cleveland
-CP B.J. Ryan
-1B Lyle Overbay
-SP David Purcey
To Toronto
-SS Jhony Peralta
-prospect Adam Miller
MW: No, and the Jays would.
- JazzSorry Mike..I believe wins do play a part in a pitchers performance..Like I said, If it didn’t then why do the vast majority of Cy Young award winners win 20 or more games?..If Peavey had won 10 games in 2007 would have won the Cy Young?..Would he have gotten that huge contract including a 22M club option?..No way..He gets that extension because he won alot of games AND the Cy Young..
Halladay struck out more batters then Cliff Lee(206-170), 9 complete games and a better whip but he won’t win the Cy Young..Lee had a record of 22-3 and was coming off a bad year..That’s why he’ll win..
MW: Yes. Because the writers who vote for those awards are shortsighted and easily distracted by shiny things.
- gumpDo you generally take players’ postseason stats with a grain of salt because it is essentially a bunch of really small sample sizes from different seasons just added up? I mean, can you really call Soriano a choker, and Bernie Williams clutcher than clutch? Yes, Soriano has sucked the last 2 years in October, but I find it hard to believe that is all due to the fact that he tenses up and can’t hit a baseball in October. Most every player has a stretch during the regular season where they go 0-10 or worse.
MW: I take nothing from a player’s post-season stats.
- BrettMike…I’ve heard before (probably more than once) that A.J. Piercynski is not what you call a “liked person or teammate” but never got the reason(s)why? Any basis for this Mike that you’ve heard or does this get filed under the heading of hearsay?
MW: Anything I’ve heard would count as hearsay. The guy is a jerk.
- chris m.Love that Broxton from the Dodgers, Mike. Didn’t get to see him much during the season, but he’s very impressive, especially the Duane Ward-like strikeout ratio. Could’ve said Brad Lidge-like I guess, but always loved old #31. His career was over way to early…real shame with his “lights out” arenal of pitches and it took the Jays years to overcome his absence.. Thanks Mike.
- chris m.Mike, how much money would you offer Manny Ramirez to come to Toronto?
MW: I really don’t have that much.
- andrewMW: It’s just you. Given Sabathia’s recent workload, fitness level and the amount of money and years he’s going to demand, he’s going to be a regrettable sign, long-term, for whoever winds up with him.
Mike- by the way you are talking your acting like C.C. is worse than A.J. C.C. + DOC equals 40 wins minimum. when sniders been in the lineup the jays are a playoff team. wernt they like 16-10 in september? if they play likde that theyre in the post-season man. plus the fact the lyle overbay didnt hit for power. i mean like C.C. completes this team.
MW: Again, Sabathia will be a regrettable long-term sign. He may have a great year next year, but I don’t want Sabathia on my payroll from 2013-2016.
- RobertThe Cy Young trophy is pretty shiny..Maybe thats it..
Not that I understand that last post but I agree with that..If we sign Sabathia that would be a monumental mistake..Remember Juan Guzman?..Looked good for a while then blew chunks..
Boston had the bases loaded in the 10th and they didn’t score..Would you have tried the Squeeze play there?..Lowrie isn’t a bad runner..
MW: A squeeze with two out? No. There’s a reason it’s called a “suicide” squeeze.
- gumpThe Dodgers will smoke The Phillies…blood-shot eyes and muchies to follow.
MW: Maybe, but how will Chad Billingsley pitch?
- slobberfaceGreat news about Tom Cheek..Looks like your hard work paid off…
I would love to see Tampa beat the Red Sox..They played Boston pretty good this year..They had that big 2-1 win in the bottom of the 9th to put them up a game after Boston tied them for first place in mid September..These guys could upset Boston and go to the world series..Imagine if you had bet 100 bucks at the start of the season on Tampa to win the World Series..That would have been a big paycheck from the man..
MW: It’s not an upset if the Rays win. Well, it is, but Tampa had the better year.
- gumpLet’s see, bunt the runner to third. One out. A base hit or a sacrifice fly gets the go ahead run home, if that doesn’t work then a single scores the go ahead run. So what the heck, let’s try a squeeze play, whiff, and get the runner caught in a run down. Oh well Angels, live by the sword….die by the sword.
MW: The squeeze with the 9 hitter, especially since it’s the Angels, was a fine choice there. Aybar’s got to make contact.
- batmanBillingsley’s due for a rough one…especially if its cold.
M-Dub,
you watch the redsux game last night?
You hear that idiot commentator say:
“one of the toughest things to do in baseball is judge pitching in the AL East. I mean you can look at a guy’s ERA on Toronto, or Baltimore and think WOW THIS GUY CANT PITCH, but you have to remember he faces the Redsux and the Wankees more than the rest of the league”
I was going to snap and throw pizza at the TV
…but then Buck Martinez corrected him
….and saved my TV
…and pizza
MW: Do you think that the pizza would have broken your TV?
- slobberfaceThats the problem with the squeeze play..It looks great and you call the manager a genius if it works..If it doesn’t work, the manager looks like a stooge and the results are awful..I figure the Angels were do for a break against Boston, but I figured wrong..
MW: Due. And I don’t see how the manager looks like a “stooge” when his 9-hitter bunts through the ball on a squeeze.
- gumpI think Bob Mcowan is bang on with endorsing a known sports executive like stan Kasten for the next jays president, I remember asking you about Stan a few months back suggesting he would be great. Stan has definitely put together some great teams in Atlanta under the ownership of Ted Turner. I think it would continue to Renew the hope of the Jays if not only stan was brought in But Gillick back as GM. Stan+Gillick+Cito=Success
- NeilMike; I’m p****d off. Well maybe not so much p****d off as I am disappointed. I just saw on an e-mail from the Baseball Hall of Fame, Tom Cheek is a top ten finalist. That part is fantastic, what’s irking me is the amount of votes he received. 8992. I voted 29 times, I’m sure you voted 30 times, that leaves 8933 votes that came from the rest of the Blue Jays faithful. That to me is extremely disappointing. If all the so called fans that call your every night just voted 2 or 3 times, Tom could’ve finished first. Anyway, for the hard work that everyone who took the time to vote did, well done all. Let’s cross our fingers in the hope that Mr. Tom Cheek finally gets what he deserves.
MW: I was very disappointed, too.
- Steve C.the only thing that makes your favourite pitcher getting shelled better is…
MW: Sorry, I wish I could help you. Man, did he get lit up today.
- slobberface