VOTE FOR TOM CHEEK!!! DETAILS AND LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE POST!!!
6:10 PM Eastern
The Blue Jays began their 2008-09 off-season with Paul Godfrey announcing that he won’t seek a new contract as President of the Jays when his current one expires at the end of December, which was followed a few hours later by J.P. Ricciardi holding his annual end-of-season meeting with the media – this one done via conference call since Ricciardi is already in Dunedin watching the Jays’ kids in the instructional league.
By the way, as I write this, there are close to 100 comments waiting to be moderated. With the two conferences as well as taping The Grill Room in between (watch tonight at 11:00 PM Eastern on SunTV!!!), I haven’t had time to get to them, and with Rosh Hashana almost upon us, I’m not going to have time to get to them until Thursday, so please hold tight through the first of the High Holidays.
Godfrey leaving isn’t a shocker. He hadn’t been direct about wanting to stick around beyond this contract, and I took that to mean that he was leaning towards going, which he confirmed this afternoon. Godfrey says his personal philosophy was that he’d rather leave a job two years too early than two minutes too late. The search for a new team prez begins now.
I’m a big fan of Godfrey’s, on a personal level. He’s been a very open, accessible guy throughout his tenure as the Jays’ president, and he’s been very good to me, so I’ll miss him. From a business standpoint, the ballclub was hemorrhaging money when he took over, and now it’s at the point where it’s close to breaking even. A lot of that has to do with the Canadian dollar, it’s true, but Godfrey’s been good at the job he was given. He fired Gord Ash, brought in J.P. Ricciardi, helped to engineer Rogers’ purchase of SkyDome and rode herd over all the improvements to the stadium once they bought it. He helped to convince Ted Rogers to raise the payroll from $50 million in 2002 to double that for 2008 and forward. Under Godfrey’s watch, attendance rose every single season from 2002 to 2008. Business-wise, his tenure was a great success. Baseball-wise, not so much, since the team never made the playoffs. But the ballclub is in FAR better shape now than it was then.
Immediately, thoughts turned to Godfrey’s possible successor, and four names spring to mind: Paul Beeston, Pat Gillick, Bob Nicholson (not the Hockey Canada guy) and Herb Solway, the Jays’ current chairman of the board. I don’t think Beeston is ready to give up retirement, though it’d certainly be fun to see him back in that chair, and the hot rumour on Gillick is that he’s going to take the president’s job in Seattle, where he lives. Chances are the new guy is none of those four. I would think that the Rogers people would lean a lot harder towards a business guy than a sports guy, but hopefully they get someone who’s both.
As for the Ricciardi call, it was brief compared to the usual two-hour sessions we have with him at the end of the season when he’s here in person, but he touched on a lot of subjects. Among them:
-He’s not going to exercise the opt-out he has in his contract with Godfrey’s departure.
-While keeping A.J. Burnett is the top priority, they’re not going to wait long for him to make up his mind once November hits.
-Word on contract extensions for the entire coaching staff should come down in the next couple of days.
-He doesn’t foresee the Jays making major changes in the off-season, but they won’t come back in 2009 with the status quo.
-He’s very happy with the job Rod Barajas did behind the plate, and might go shopping for a veteran back-up catcher rather than go with an internal option.
-Shortstop isn’t a major issue, since Marco Scutaro did such a great job.
-He’d like to add a middle-of-the-order power bat.
A couple of points he made deserve deeper discussion, specifically about the internal solutions for the starting rotation next season and the potential trade bait that J.P. will be using.
Ricciardi mentioned both Brian Tallet and Scott Downs as pitchers who could be stretched out in spring training to be candidates for the rotation. When he talked about Downs, he used the word “revisit”, which implies that they’d already considered Downs to start (which we knew) and decided against it (which we didn’t). I know that Cito Gaston would rather have Downs in the bullpen, and I think that J.P. would rather get as many quality innings as possible from his pitchers. This reminds me of the Casey Janssen thing this past spring. Ricciardi wanted him in the rotation, John Gibbons wanted him in the bullpen. It appeared as though J.P. was going to win that one, but Casey’s injury made it a moot point.
Janssen, by the way, will head to spring training this year as a starting pitcher.
The point about trade bait was that J.P. wants to hold onto his pitching. He said “maybe it’s not our pitchers that get us what we need, maybe it’s some of our everyday players. We’ve got a good farm system, and maybe some people want some of our younger players.”
To me, that means that at the very least Adam Lind is available, but the Jays want a bunch back for him. Lind has more trade value than Vernon Wells, and may have more than Alex Rios because of his contract/service time status, but not as much as Travis Snider. Both Ricciardi and Gaston seem sold on Snider, and if they sign the big, scary bat they want to be the DH, Snider can slip into left field and Lind can be shipped off for help in the rotation. If they do acquire a number two-type pitcher in trade, then there will be plenty of money still available to add a bat or two.
With Rosh Hashana almost here, I won’t be doing any work for the next couple of days, and that includes tending to the blog, but I’ll be back on Thursday.
Thanks to TBS’ decision to start the early evening playoff games at 6:35 Eastern, we won’t have a Blue Jay A Day Pre-Pre Game Show for at least the first week of the playoffs. Hopefully there are more normal start times during the League Championship Series, and we can get back into full BJADPPGSdom. This is the place to check every day to see who our Blue Jay guest will be, coming on to take your phone calls. I’ll post his identity as soon as I have each player confirmed.
Today and tomorrow are you last chances to VOTE FOR TOM CHEEK and ONLY for Tom Cheek to be on the ballot for the Ford C. Frick Award to gain entry into the broadcasters’ wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. It’ll make more of an impact on the voters if Tom alone gets the overwhelming majority of the votes. Just click on this link:
http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/awards/frick_2008/vote.jsp
It’s a bit of a pain to fill out all the info, but it only takes two minutes at the most, and Tom Cheek was certainly worth your time. Thank you.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Shana tova u’metukhah.
OK, I”m confused. Since we all know how anti-Ricciardi I am, let’s invent a Jays GM called Riccardo whom I have no feelings about. Riccardo is told by the president of the ball club that his job is safe for another year.
Then the president resigns and another president comes in. What happens to the preceeding president’s commitment to the GM?
By the way, what do expect we could get for Lind?
MW: I would imagine that by the time the new prez gets in there, most of the heavy lifting of the off-season will be done, so the imaginary Riccardo would keep his job, but with a very short leash. I’m not sure what they could get for Lind, I would think he’d be a piece of the package for something really good (Jake Peavy?).
- reyesHi Mike
what could the Jays expect in return for Lind? i.e. a #3 type pitcher? any thoughts on who that might be?
thanks,
MW: See above.
- DavidPaul Godfrey tells us it was his decision to step down?
This guy has told some woozies in his time, but this one takes the cake.
Guess Godfrey wanted to quit before he got canned.
MW: Why would he have gotten canned?
- Rick GRaceA differing perspective on recent events (regarding the pitching staff):
Would there be as big a feeling of doom and gloom had it been Jesse Litsch and not Shaun Marcum that was lost for 2009? We’ve known about A.J.’s status all year but felt O.K. with a front of the rotation consisting of Halladay/Marcum/A.J.’s replacement going into next season.
The thinking was, pick up another starter and let a bunch of folks slug it out for the No. 5 spot–including Litsch.
Marcum: IP 151.1 127 ERA+ HR/9 1.23 BB/9 2.97 K/9 8.72 WHIP 1.16
J. Litsch: IP 176.0 121 ERA+ HR/9 1.02 BB/9 1.99 K/9 5.62 WHIP 1.23
The biggest difference between the two is K/9 but before Litsch was sent down it was 4.6, it was 5.9 after his return. Litsch had a GB/FB ratio of 1.30 this year to Marcum’s 1.04. In 2007, Litsch was 1.58 to Marcum’s 1.09.
Last year, Marcum had a 108 ERA+ in 159 IP, Litsch: 117 ERA+ in 111 IP.
Litsch is three years younger. He’ll be 24 next year and when Marcum was 24 he had a 90 ERA+ in 78.1 IP with the Jays and 3.40 ERA in 53 IP in Syracuse.
Is there any reason to think that a healthy Marcum would be *that* much better than a healthy Litsch next year? It’s not unreasonable to state that the drop in quality in the No. 2/3 spot between the two wouldn’t be hugely significant. Yes, Marcum strikes out more but that’s offset by Litsch’s ability to induce ground balls and keep the ball in the park (last year as well, Litsch‘s HR/9 was better than Marcum’s 1.14 to 1.53).
In 2007, Litsch’s K/9 was 4.05, before his demotion it was 4.6, it was 5.9 after his return.
I see a trend.
Did I mention he’ll be just *24* next year?
Yet, I doubt there would be nearly as much angst among segments of the Jays’ fan base were it Jesse out with Tommy John rather than Marcum.
I’ll say it again–I think a Jays’ rotation of Halladay, (free agent), Litsch, Purcey and Richmond while working McGowan back into the mix with the bullpen support will be more than adequate. The Rays threw Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine out there this year and did O.K. I’ll bet nobody thought that would be the back end of a contending rotation in the spring so let’s not resign Litsch, Purcey and Richmond to a second division club in 2009 without seeing how the season plays out.
Folks have been dumping on you about your Rays prediction this season–well, let them take note; if they had such high confidence in Garza/Sonnanstine/Jackson in the early going, then let’s see the same belief in Litsch/Purcey/Richmond (or some other No. 5 guy) for 2009.
Thoughts?
Best Regards
John
MW: It’s an interesting point and you’re right – there’d be far less angst if it were Litsch missing the year. But I’m one of those who feels that the upside of Marcum is much higher, though Litsch keeps proving me wrong. As to your last point, the threesome of Garza (1st rounder), Jackson (Dodgers’ top pitching prospect at 20) and Sonnanstine is of far greater pedigree than Litsch (24th rounder with Towersy stuff), Purcey (1st rounder but 27 on Opening Day and still not established) and Richmond (longshoreman at 20).
- John B.Mike,
I just starting reading your blog recently and glad I stumbled upon it. your sarcasm is refreshing, makes me laugh. I haven’t been able to listen to Jays games consistently until I got XM. As a matter of fact, it has been since around 2001. I have a question maybe you can answer. What happened to KY580 AM in Winnipeg? I used to listen to the Jays games on that station. Anyway good job from El Paso, Tx. See you in Arlington in June.
MW: Actually, you won’t – I don’t make road trips, but I’m glad you’re listening from down there. I don’t know about that radio station in Winnipeg with the unfortunate call letters. We don’t have an affiliate there anymore.
- JustinMike, I love the article, and will miss it all winter. The season has been an up and down roller coaster, but being said, it still looks very good going into next year. I spoke before that a guy like Prince Feilder would be a great fit in Toronto, but his availabilty may be hindered with their playoff push. What are your thoughts on a cast away hitter like Nick Swisher. He has good power numbers and draws a lot of walks and I am sure he is a JP guy. I know he has been in a slump, but he is in need of change of scenery and has no postion in Chicago. I think he could come cheap. Your thoughts.
MW: If Swisher would come cheap, I’d love to have him here.
- DanThanks Mike for another fabulous season! If you could take any guy in the league to be the team prez who would it be? I won’t speculate because I don’t know this well enough and that’s why I am the fan and you are the expert.
Some of the statements from other Toronto Sports analysts on 590 really bother me. For example, one reporter will say “why didn’t they win 10 straight before??? Now they’ll have 86, 87 wins and they’ll say, wow we had a good year” and if they had lost 10 straight they would probably say: “This team disgusts me! 68-76! Why is JP staying a the GM role for so long??!!” They look at it as if a team chooses whe nto win ten straight if you know what I mean. Tell me what you think. Does it bother you too?
Happy Holidays Mike!
P.S. I am Jewish too.
MW: Cool. Yes, it bothers me that people try to stir the pot like that, but it’s their prerogative. It’s just a shame that so many people treat that kind of stuff as gospel. As for team prez, I don’t know. A good business guy who would leave the baseball ops department alone, I think.
- WarrenMike..Thanks for the info. on Baldelli on Jays Talk on Sunday when I asked. It’s always a touchy subject when dealing with a person’s health, and especially when all the reports aren’t out. But you told what you knew up to that point and that’s all one can do. And even though I’ve asked you to pull out your P.H.D. and play doctor on Jays Talk and you always correct me and say “sorry will my B.Sc. do” I will award you my personal P.H.D for professionalism, friendliness and knowledge. To just say sports and baseball knowledge would be short changing you. Thanks again..I truly enjoy your views
MW: Thanks!
- chris m.Rosh Hashanah has come at a perfect time this year baseball wise.
Looking forward to the Grill Room tonight. Hope Spider Jones is in there as well.:).
Shana Tova!
MW: Thanks! No Spider, though.
- BeburgI have always believed there is not enough innings available for our 5 top relievers (BJ, Accardo, Downs, Jansen, League), assuming all are healthy (make it 7 if you include Carlson and Tallet). You have said a few times that Jansen will not be a starter at the beginning of next year due to injury recovery situation….now you say (or JP says i guess) that he will?? I believe if they have confidence that all 5 are healthy, at least one becomes a starter and one is gone in a trade. How about one of them plus Overbay, plus a prospect for a big time 1st baseman with power.
I still, for the life of me cant figure out why Zaun was playing so much at the end of the year instead of Thigpen……perhaps they thought they “owed it to him” or perhaps so it could help him secure a job next year with someone else, by having more games played than he would have otherwise.
keep up the good work Mike
MW: Might have been because they thought he was better than Thigpen, which would indicate that they’ve made their minds up about Thigpen. That’d be a surprise, though. It’d have to be one of the top, cheap relievers to get that sort of return.
- RandyHey Mike,
Happy New Year!
I want to thank you for the job you did this season…. I listened to you most nights…
Call of the year: The guy from the east coast who told JP to make Matt Stairs the closer!
I’m ready to go into next year with Jesse Litsch as my number 2 starter… All people do is doubt this kid, and all he does is prove everyone wrong… The fatter he gets, the better he pitches! I’m sold..
If this team doesn’t get Burnett back, what I would like to see them do is: go out and sign 2 or 3 Zambrano- Ohka-Thomson types. Then go into spring training with 3 jobs up for grabs in the rotation… And tell Purcey, Cecil, Romario Brothers, Mills, Richmond, Wolfe, Janssen, Parrish, Tallet and the new signees, “you want it go get.”
I figure with 10-13 guys fighting for 3 spots you are bound to put together an ok back end…
Of course, with JPs job on the line, this approach would be insane… But I think it would be the best longterm idea…
MW: Longterm I don’t think they have an issue, with Marcum coming back in 2010 and McGowan and Janssen (one would think) ready to contribute as solid starters by then. I don’t mind the “go get ‘em” strategy to building a rotation short-term, though.
- Stevie H.Mike,
Shana Tova Umetukah.
Paul Godfrey has seemingly done a great job. I thought that one of the best moves he made was banning the sale of alcohol in the $2 sections on tooney Tuesdays. Fans complained and he listened. When he spoke about the team, the city and the fans it sounded like he was talking directly to you. That is a great sign that he was a terrific leader. I wish him all the best.
Cheers
- Aaron - from HamiltonMichael
Great season…sources have told me that Mr. Godfrey isn’t “stepping down”.
He was not being retained and out of respect for the decent job (as described by you above) he did, Ted Rogers gave him the chance to “relieve” himself of the job.
While i agree with what you said about what he brought to over the past 8 years, it is time for change right from the top.
Hopefully the new boss can get rid of this horrid logo and bring back the old school jays logo. The new J thing was a project of Paul’s son a few years back and frankly its not well liked.
Everyone in our section (I am an original subscriber) prefers the logo/uniforms from 80′s-90′s.
I’d also love to see a different years uniform worn next year on Friday nights….like how about the 1992 or 1993 Jersey…..
Anyways a Shana Tova to you and your family and see you in Dunedin next spring. Just sent in my deposit and looking forward to the annual trip courtesy of the ballclub.
I also would be super happy if the “State of the Franchise” speech was given by Paul Beeston or Pat Gillick but a little change from the top will be nice to see
All the best
- JohnSince the year is over…
Here are my award picks if I was allowed to vote for my top ten:
AL MVP:
3B Alex Rodriguez (NYY):
.302 AVG, .392 OBP, .573 SLG
35 HR, 104 R, 103 RBI
65 BB, 117 K
18/21 SB/CS, .965 OPS
Comments: Even with the missed time, the best (but not easy) choice. Playing 3rd base over 1st base gives a slight edge.
[2nd choice]:
1B Mark Teixeira (LAA):
.308 AVG, .410 OBP, .552 SLG
33 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI
98 BB, 93 K
2/0 SB/CS, .962 OPS
Comments: One of the most underrated players (please GOD come to Toronto). Qualifies for AL despite playing mostly in ATL. Has more BB than SO.
[3rd choice]:
1B Josh Hamilton (TEX):
.304 AVG, .371 OBP, .530 SLG
32 HR, 98 R, 130 RBI
64 BB, 126 K
9/1 SB/CS, .901 OPS
Comments: .901 OPS doesn’t cut it for first choice. The high RBI total reflects the team he plays on more than his ability.
Ranks four through ten:
#4 OF Carlos Quentin (CWS)
#5 OF Jason Bay (BOS)
#6 1B Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
#7 1B Miguel Cabrera (DET)
#8 1B Justin Morneau (MIN)
#9 DH Milton Bradley (TEX)
#10 C Joe Mauer (MIN)
AL Cy Young:
SP Roy Halladay (TOR):
20-11 W/L, 246.0 IP, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K
220 H, 39 BB, 9 CG
5.28 K/BB, 7.54 K/9, 1.43 BB/9, .620 OOPS
Comments: The best pitcher in the AL by a large margin. Not only a workhorse but extremely consistent. Leads AL in WHIP. Has his strikeouts back up to go along with an insane GB/FB ratio. More CG’s than anyone in AL by leaps and bounds. Possibly best pitcher in MLB all-around when including health.
[2nd choice]:
SP Cliff Lee (CLE):
22-3 W/L, 223.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K
214 H, 34 BB, 4 CG
5.00 K/BB, 6.85 K/9, 1.37 BB/9, .632 OOPS
Comments: If there’s one pitcher I wouldn’t mind winning it over Halladay it’s Lee. A phenomenal year where it really came all together for a pitcher that isn’t this good. Plays for Cleveland. Will probably win the Cy unanimously.
[3rd choice]:
SP Justin Duchscherer (OAK):
10-8 W/L, 141.2 IP, 2.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 95 K
107H, 34 BB, 1 CG
2.79 K/BB, 6.04 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, .589 OOPS
Comments: A very distant third in a shallow Cy Young pool. A superb 141.2 IP – double the average closer. I’ll take 141 of Duchscherer over F-Rod and his 12350 saves on a 1.20 WHIP any day. Godly .589 OOPS. Unfortunate injury.
Ranks four through ten:
#4. SP Ervin Santana (LAA)
#5. RP Mariano Rivera (NYY)
#6. RP Joe Nathan (MIN)
#7. RP Joakim Soria (KCR)
#8. SP A.J. Burnett (TOR)
#9. SP Josh Beckett (BOS)
#10. SP Jon Lester (BOS)
NL MVP:
1B Albert Pujols (STL):
.357 AVG, .462 OBP, .653 SLG
37 HR, 100 R, 116 RBI
104 BB, 54 K
7/3 SB/CS, 1.114 OPS
Comments: The best player of this generation might’ve just had the best year of his career. Yet, people talk like there is an NL MVP race. This might be the biggest blowout I’ve ever seen in any MVP race ever. 104 walks on 54 strikeouts. 1.114 OPS. Nuff said. May be the best player to ever pick up a baseball bat.
[2nd choice]:
SS Hanley Ramirez (FLA):
.301 AVG, .400 OBP, .540 SLG
33 HR, 125 R, 67 RBI
92 BB, 122 K
35/12 SB/CS, .940 OPS
Comments: A .940 OPS at shortstop is about as valuable as you get to any team. Idiotically misplaced in the FLA lineup. Speed, eye, contact and power all at toughest position in the game to find hitting.
[3rd choice]:
OF Manny Ramirez (LAD):
.332 AVG, .430 OBP. .601 SLG
37 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI
87 BB, 124 K
3/0 SB/CS, 1.031 OPS
Comments: It has always amazed me how quietly Manny Ramirez can put up simply monstrous seasons. Just a giant of a year from a player that looked like he might’ve been over that hill. His 1.232 OPS in his 187 LAD AB’s didn’t hurt their playoff chances either.
Ranks four through ten:
#4. OF Lance Berkman (HOU)
#5. 3B David Wright (NYM)
#6. OF Matt Holliday (COL)
#7. 2B Chase Utley (PHI)
#8. 2B Jose Reyes (NYM)
#9. OF Carlos Beltran (NYM)
#10. 3B Chipper Jones (ATL)
NL Cy Young:
SP Tim Lincecum (SFG)
18-5 W/L, 227.0 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K
182 H, 84 BB, 2 CG
3.15 K/BB, 10.51 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, .609 OOPS
Comments: His 1.17 WHIP is overshadowed by his dominant power and low OOPS. 10.51 K/9 as a starter is just sick and if he can get those walks down over the next few years I expect him to win many Cy’s. I suspect the actual voters will pick Webb (or possibly but doubtfully Sabathia) this year, mind you. Oh, and I still have horrible nightmares about that week or so when it looked like Lincecum for Rios was going to go through.
[2nd choice]:
SP C.C. Sabathia (MIL)
17-10 W/L, 253.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K
223 H, 59 BB, 10 CG
4.25 K/BB, 8.93 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, .622 OOPS
Comments: The only true workhorse left in the league along with Halladay. Without his dreadful start probably would be the lock. Has an almost unheard of .550 OOPS in his 17 MIL starts. To put it in perspective Mariano Rivera’s career OPS is .555 and he just faces 3 batters at a time. Sabathia’s close to Lincecum, but I think Lincecum deserves it a bit more because of the more important ratios. Certainly a very close second, almost close enough for me to reconsider. But not close enough.
[3rd choice]:
SP Johan Santana (NYM)
16-7 W/L, 234.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K
206 H, 63 BB, 3 CG
3.27 K/BB, 7.91 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, .645 OOPS
Comments: Going into the year, the fact that the best pitcher in the game was going to the NL made it seem like Santana was not only going to win the Cy Young, but win it unanimously with a sub-2 ERA. There are a few things about Santana that have been bothering me. One – his WHIP has increased every year since 2004. Two – his OOPS last year was .678 and this year .645 which is great, but not elite, and certainly not deservedly of best-in-game status. Not only has Santana fallen from first in my best pitcher today list, he’s not even in the top five. Regardless, he had another great year – 2.53 ERA with over 200 K’s. Can’t hate on that. Interestingly though, Halladay, who had become known as someone who gets ground balls and doesn’t K people any more, had 206 K’s this year too. In a year where pitchers seem to be re-finding stuff they had, Santana is regressing. I was tempted to put Harden third despite the fact he’s only pitched 148 innings. But given two lines going into a season, I’d take Johan’s.
Ranks four through ten:
#4. SP Rich Harden (CHC) (SICK .556 OOPS in 148 IP. Pedro’s 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23 win year had a .535 OOPS)
#5. SP Dan Haren (ARI)
#6. SP Cole Hamels (PHI)
#7. SP Jake Peavy (SDP)
#8. SP Ben Sheets (MIL)
#9. SP Brandon Webb (ARI)
#10. SP Edinson Volquez (CIN)
The three most underrated seasons from each league:
AL:
1B Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
.312 AVG, .390 OBP, .569 SLG
29 HR, 91 R, 115 RBI
62 BB, 108 K
3/5 SB/CS, .958 OPS
Comments: Despite playing in Boston he had an incredibly quiet (a la old Moises Alou) .958 OPS season. That is a damn good OPS for an afterthought on that team. Deserves the MVP more than the much-ballyhooed Pedroia. Playing 2B doesn’t give THAT much more value.
[2nd choice]:
SP Shaun Marcum (TOR)
9-7 W/L, 151.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 123 K
126 H, 50 BB, 0 CG
2.46 K/BB, 7.31 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, .682 OOPS
Comments: It is really too bad that Marcum got injured. Basically his only three bad starts of the season were when he came back from the injury, and they inflated his numbers significantly. But still, he pitched 3/4 of a 200 inning year with a 3.39 ERA and a WHIP better than Lincecum’s. Nobody outside of Toronto and hardcore baseball fans could even name him. Now he’s really screwed his arm and won’t even be pitching next year.
[3rd choice]:
1B Aubrey Huff (TBD)
.304 AVG, .360 OBP, .552 SLG
32 HR, 96 R, 108 RBI
53 BB, 89 K
4/0 SB/CS, .912 OPS
Comments: Huff has always been a jerk and one of my least favorite players. He had that one good year in TB and then decided he wanted to suck for six years and suddenly be good again. He has to have the quietest .900+ OPS this year.
Honorable Mention:
DH Milton Bradley (TEX)
OF Carlos Quentin (CWS)
1B Mark Teixeira (LAA)
NL:
1B Adrian Gonzalez (SDP)
.279 AVG, .361 OBP, .510 SLG
36 HR, 103 R, 119 RBI
74 BB, 142 K
0/0 SB/CS, .871 OPS
Comments: The perennially underrated Adrian does it again. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a newscaster talk about him and yet he manages some pretty damn hardcore production on the beyond woeful Padres. Keep in mind he’s only 26 years old, as well.
[2nd choice]:
OF Adam Dunn (CIN)
.236 AVG, .386 OBP, .513 SLG
40 HR, 79 R, 110 RBI
122 BB, 164 K
2/1 SB/CS, .899 OPS
Comments: Any time I hear people talk about Dunn, they talk about his average. They talk about him as an average player who could be great with a higher average. I’m so sick of hearing it. This guy is a top-notch player. Not elite, but great. He has an almost .400 OBP, hits 40 homers, walks 125 times but you still hear about his average. People don’t realize the production Dunn brings to the table. They don’t come close to realizing it. I would kill to have Dunn on the Jays. This is one of a set of at least 5 consecutive years now where Dunn is one of the most underrated players out there.
[3rd choice]:
OF Ryan Ludwick (STL)
.299 AVG, .371 OBP, .591 OPS
37 HR, 104 R, 117 RBI
62 BB, 146 K
4/4 SB/CS, .966 OPS
Comments: A year like this can’t go by without at least quite a bit of talk about it. But it has received nowhere near the talk it deserves. A .966 OPS from a perennial loser like this is the definition of a flukeyass (and therefore almost always underrated) year. Who the hell is Ryan Ludwick?
Honorable Mention:
1B Albert Pujols (STL)
1B Carlos Delgado (NYM)
UT Mark DeRosa (CHC)
The two most overrated years (one from each league):
AL:
2B Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
.326 AVG, .376 OBP, .493 OPS
17 HR, 118 R, 83 RBI
50 BB, 52 K
20/1 SB/CS, .869 OPS
Comments: It’s a good year. I’m not going to question that. He also plays 2B where it is hard to find production. BUT THIS IS NOT AN MVP YEAR. It’s not CLOSE TO AN MVP YEAR. I can not turn on a TV without hearing how Pedroia should win the MVP. It’s a complete laugh. Pedroia is not even the MVP of his own team. Let’s put some things in perspective here, media.
Honorable Mention:
SS Derek Jeter (NYY) (the perennial candidate)
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS)
OF Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
NL:
2B Jose Reyes (NYM)
.297 AVG, .358 OBP, .475 SLG
16 HR, 113 R, 68 RBI
66 BB, 82 K
56/15 SB/CS, .833 OPS
Comments: The guy can steal bases so he’s an uber-elite ball player. That’s according to most media I listen to. He had a .833 OPS ffs (coming off a .775 OPS), a .358 OBP and did get caught 15 times. He’s a quality 2B, but he’s overrated to no end.
Honorable Mention:
1B Ryan Howard (PHI)
1B Prince Fielder (MIL)
OF Alfonso Soriano (CHC)
The two biggest “WTF years” (one for each league, WTF can be good or bad):
AL:
DH Milton Bradley (TEX)
.321 AVG, .436 OBP, .563 SLG
22 HR, 78 R, 77 RBI
80 BB, 112 K
5/3 SB/CS, .999 OPS
Comments: Seemingly out of nowhere Bradley became an on-base machine breaking the .450 mark, if only through 414 ab’s. Throw in a .550+ SLG and you have yourself a 1.0 OPS player. And it’s Milton Bradley. Milton Bradley – ranked worse than 240 coming into the year and a supposed clubhouse cancer. The only reason he wasn’t also the most underrated is because at least from what I saw it got a lot of coverage at first.
Honorable Mention:
1B Aubrey Huff (TBD)
OF Carlos Quentin (CWS)
OF Carl Crawford (TBD)
NL:
OF Ryan Ludwick (STL)
.299 AVG, .371 OBP, .591 OPS
37 HR, 104 R, 117 RBI
62 BB, 146 K
4/4 SB/CS, .966 OPS
Comments: It will be interesting to see where Ludwick drafts next year.
Honorable Mention:
OF Nate McLouth (PIT)
3B Chipper Jones (ATL)
SP Aaron Harang (CIN)
The two biggest busts:
AL:
1B David Ortiz (BOS)
.264 AVG, .369 OBP, .507 SLG
23 HR, 74 R, 89 RBI
70 BB, 74 K
1/0 SB/CS, .877 OPS
Comments: I don’t care how injured he was. Ortiz’s OPS in his previous 5 years: .961, .983, 1.001, 1.049, 1.066.
Honorable Mention:
SP Fausto Carmona (CLE)
OF Carl Crawford (TBD)
SP Erik Bedard (SEA)
Superspecial mention for DH Travis Hafner (CLE)
NL:
1B Todd Helton (COL)
.264 AVG, .391 OBP, .388 SLG
7 HR, 39 R, 29 RBI
61 BB, 50 K
0/0 SB/CS, .779 OPS
Comments: For years Helton has been a .300 AVG, .400 OBP lock. It all fell off this year and how. Who ever would’ve thought that Helton’s SLG would be lower than his OBP.
Honorable Mention:
C Russell Martin (LAD)
SS Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
SS Miguel Tejada (HOU)
Superspecial mention for OF Andruw Jones (LAD)
And finally, the one and only Foxx’s-Sexiest-Player-Not-Named-Roy-Halladay Award.
OF Travis Snider (TOR)
.301 AVG, .338 OBP, .466 SLG
2 HR, 9 R, 13 RBI
5 BB, 23 K
0/0 SB/CS, .803 OPS
Interestingly, if you go by the Pythagorean W/L this year, the jays finished 94/68, once again highlighting their need for homeruns and win some damn 1-run games.
Anyways, comments?
MW: No offense, but I can’t believe you expected me to read that whole thing. I mean, I’m sure you worked really hard on it, and I don’t mean to diminsh that, but if I’m going through 100 of these a day, I can’t possibly handle that. You should really start your own blog if you’re going to write at that length.
- Wyatt BaileyMike what position player do you think another team is going to give up a number two starter for??? Seriously unless the Jays trade Snider they wont be getting back a number two starter for any one or combinations of their position players unless Steve Phillips get hired somewhere as gm.
MW: It depends on who is moving contracts, who is trying to get younger, who is the developing number two that isn’t a number two yet.
- Dan MMW:
L’shanah Tovah.
And thanks for a great year of blogging and Jaystalking.
I’ll be checking the blog everyday throughout the playoffs and winter so hopefully you keep it going as often as you can.
Thanks again
MW: Thanks. There won’t be a post every day during the winter, though.
- MasterclarkMike, I’ve been meaning to ask this, doesn’t your crusade (pardon the pun) against irrationality and lack of reason conflict with your faith and participation in religion?
To make it a baseball question, what do you think of Freddy Garcia as a reclamation project and comeback candidate next year? I think he would at least be a decent #5 stopgap option for next year until McGowan returns.
MW: For some reason, a lot of commenters seem to want to make this blog about politics and religion, and I haven’t got the slightest idea why. My faith has nothing to do with baseball, nor does anyone else’s. I’m fine with Garcia, at a low price.
- ShawnHey Mike, Barry Bonds is still good without the roids. But even though it’s not probably going to happen, would it be a good idea for the middle of the line up kind of guy?
MW: It’d be fine by me.
- gregWell Mike, voting has expired and I sent Tom a bunch of votes this month and I have my hopes up that he will make the ballot, but if he doesn’t then I will be disappointed!!! But if he doesn’t get on this year then we are going to try even harder next year to get the word out. I will even create another e-mail addy so I can vote twice a day, but maybe we won’t need too. I won’t rest until Tom is where he belongs in cooperstown!
MW: Glad to hear it!
- Matt from BChey mike;
Just heard that all the coaches were retained for the next two years until 2010, this shows that riccardi does indeed believe that this team will contend, bravo on retaining arnsberg and tenace.
MW: Why does that shows that Ricciardi believes the team will contend?
- robert.sMike, for all your correspondents who have been voting regulary for Tom Cheek, I’ve just checked the site for the HOF voting for Tom (and the also-rans), and note that they will be announcing the results on Monday Oct. 6.
I’m hoping that Tom’s total will at least double the historical high — would 250,000 be a good guess?
MW: I don’t want to get my hopes that high. I’d be thrilled with 100,000.
- NormMike,
Can you remember the last time there were 2 cities which each had 2 teams in the playoffs? (LA and Chicago)…I thought that was pretty cool. If the Mets and Yankees did their part, there would be 3….If that doesn’t prove that big market teams [more often than not] come out on top, I don’t know what does!
MW: It doesn’t really prove that. It proves that everyone in the A.L. West sucked but for the Angels, the Dodgers had a worse record than the Blue Jays, among many other teams, and the White Sox were two runs away from not making the playoffs.
- BernardHappy 5769 Mike!
Quick question – When do we find out if we voted early and often enough for Tom Cheek to make it to the Hall?
MW: See above. Although we weren’t voting for Tom to actually make it into the Hall, just to get on the ballot.
- SiguyHey Mike, I’m already dreaming up possible scenarios for Jays trades this offseason, and although it will absolutely never happen, I think this would be interesting. It involves JJ Hardy of the Brewers coming to Toronto (they have a young SS prospect ready / almost ready for the big time).
In return, the Jays would send Joe Inglett (Aaron Hill coming back pushed him out here, he replaces Ricky Weekes there), John McDonald (to tutor their new guy and provide a little insurance in he falters), Brian Tallet (their pen is ok, but Tallet would be a good addition), Ricky Romero (because I expect they would want a near-ready starter prospect), and maybe a few mid-level prospects (I was thinking Brian Jeroloman and Kyle Ginley).
What do you think? Would this package tempt the Brewers?
MW: If it doesn’t, then Bob Melvin should start looking for a new job right now.
- EricInteresting list of possible Godfrey replacements listed
by Bob Elliot.
http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/Sports/OtherSports/2008/09/30/69
25921-sun.html
Any pick(s) for a replacement Mike?
Just finished watching Lowe beat the Cubs tonight, he’s pitching himself into quite the pay day. I think I’d prefer him over Burnett, not that the Jays really have a shot at either.
Just looking at the Jays trade chips for pitching, they would have to add quite a bit behind Lind to get any legitimate pitcher in return, I would think anyway. Any possible targets in mind?
I enjoyed your sparring round with Griffin the other day; he’s definitely allot tamer on air than in his column.
Any updates from the instructional league for us?
Thanks for the blog.
MW: I don’t know enough about the prospective presidents to be able to say who I like best. But the team president isn’t someone I should be dealing with on a regular basis anyway. I think they’d have to add a lot to Lind, too – my target would be Jake Peavy. There will be no updates from the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League from me on this blog.
- Clintmike,
couple thoughts here.
gaston’s comments this morning on the radio re: downs as a possible starter for next yr… the more i give this thought, the more sense it possibly makes. i mean as spectactular as he’s been the last 2 yrs. out of the pen, virtually as lights out as a bullpenner can be (closer or not) he does seem to be a viable candidate for the starting 5 in many ways.
first he’s a lefty which i realize isn’t necessarily a neccessity but can be a good thing as they’re typically in demand. he’s started before in his career… the familiarity with that i suppose helps somewhat. and what i like most is he is very effective at throwing strikes particularly early in the count which is so important when you’re ahead in the count going forward in an at bat. and of course they have depth in the pen to afford to try this experiment. your thoughts??
and one other opinion i’d like to hear from you on…. which probably ties in to the downs experiment actually. with janssen hopefully pitching for the team next yr. from the beginning and coming off the surgery he is. in terms of him making progress at maintaining the health of his arm next yr. does it make more sense to you that he perhaps moves to a starters role and pitches every 5th day where you can work up his pitch count and innings pitched as the season evolves or is he better to be put back in his former pen position and pitching potentially every 2nd or 3rd day for 1-2 innings with all the ben warmups that relievers endure over the course of the yr.???? which one do you think is the safer route for him based on above…
oh ya, start of the playoffs yesterday. great to see. seems to be canadian connections of some sort in all series played yesterday. which is sort of fun. i guess though none really with the rays/sox series however. am i wrong.
and oh ya last thing, of all the potential stories to develop in the world series as we get to it (ie. windy city final, highway series in cali.) but the best one has to be if the dodgers can get there with the bo sox. i mean, manny going back to boston is storybook no doubt, but also got to thinking… nomar making a return. and torre going back. that’s the ticket i’m pretty sure. am i right?
thanks mike.
darrell.
MW: The Red Sox/Dodgers probably gives us the best storyline, but any World Series involving the Cubs might be better. They’re a longshot to make it, though. Janssen is going to spring training as a starter, so we’ll see how it goes from there. I’m not in a position to say what will be better for his shoulder, though I’d have imagined that less work (relieving) would be more beneficial to him. As for Downs, the starter, I’m interested to see what happens with him in the spring.
- darrell bishopThanks for a great season of blogging Mike!
Are there any plans for a regularly scheduled baseball show during the off-season? Perhaps a half-hour show one day a week in the vein of Blue Jays this Week and instead Baseball this week?
I’m always left a bit wanting for baseball on the FAN during the Jays downtime.
Thanks again and I hope to see the blog as active next season as it was this.
MW: No promises. It took a WHOLE lot out of me this year.
- Christopher TaylorMike…If you could pick two players from the past that make you wish you were born at a different time, who would they be? (one pitcher, one non-pitcher) For me it would be Sandy Koufax and ted Williams. From 1961-66, Koufax went 129-47…simply amazing! If you get a chance to read the book on him written a few years back, go for it!! And for Teddy Ballgame, what else can you say?
MW: It’d probably be Koufax and Babe Ruth for me.
- chris m.I’ve got a great idea Mike!
How about BJ Ryan for Chris Duncan in the off season? Here’s my reasoning:
-STL is rumoured to be in the market for a closer
-Duncan was injured this year; the Cardinals already have Ankiel and Ludwick for their corner OF spots
-Duncan hits RHP, his career line against them is: .282/.374/.519. You’d have to platoon him of course, but if you picked up someone who crushes lefties, you’ve got yourself a great DH. I think you could get 25, maybe 30 HRs out of him.
And then of course there’s all that stuff about financial flexibility and the Jays having several guys who could take over closer duties.
Okay, now it’s your turn to tell me why I’m completely off base with this.
MW: I don’t think you’re completely off-base.
- Jay MoneyHey Mike,
I found this interesting:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/olneys-latest-y.html
Buster Olney says that the Yankees may have a payroll of about $180M next season, down about $30M from this year.
Could it be that the Yankees aren’t going to be as spend-crazy as many thought?
That would be a nice, little break for the Jays
MW: If they’re down $30M from last year, that’d still give then $50M to spend this winter.
- James HMike, re the novel in Post #14 — I don’t blame you for not reading the entire post, although I did. (I suppose I could use your line “if I have to read (them) all, so do you”, but I won’t).
Anyway, a couple of factual corrections for the poster –Jose Reyes is not a 2B, he plays SS. And the abbreviation TBD for Tampa Bay no longer makes any sense, since they got rid of the “Devil” in their name.
- Normre: Comment 10
Zaun was a borderline type B free agent. They needed to give him the playing time so that he had a chance to reach type B status. If he did (I don’t know whether he did or not), they can offer him arbitration and when he likely turns it down they will get a compensatory pick from any team that signs him.
MW: I don’t think there’s much chance that Zaun would turn down arbitration.
- ColinMike why do you continue to place emphasis on the fact that Clevland not making the playoffs is a shocker when with clevlands payrolland home grown roster we can clearly determine that they over achieved last year, Last year clevland had a payroll of 61 million, this year was 78 the Jays this year and last year were teenty million dollars richer in payroll and did not sniff the playoffs this year or last year. To clevlands crdit they started off horribly yet managed to finish ar 500 and in between two 120 million dollar plus payrolls the jays on the other hand have yet again not even sniffed the playoffs could not capatilize on a yankee team that struggled the whole year and ended up finishing second to last with their once again increased payroll of 98million dollars.With all the expectation this year and close to hundred million dollar payroll the jays have clearly underachieved.
MW: “To Clevlands (sic) credit they started off horribly yet managed to finish ar (sic) 500 (sic) and in between two 120 million dollar plus payrolls”. You said that. You do realize, that the Indians started off 12-12, and were 13-15 at the end of April, right? And they finished 81-81. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, were 11-17 in April and finished 86-76. That’s brutal. You also seem to give some credit to the Indians for Detroit having a horrible year, for some reason. And saying the Jays finished “second to last” – is that supposed to carry some weight when comparing them to a team they beat by five games? Yes, the Jays clearly underachieved this season, but why try to prove that with such ridiculous arguments?
- NeilYes, I know Reyes is a SS. I am still stuck in the year 2004 or whatever where he played 2B. I know he’s a SS but I write 2B for whatever reason.
Mike – read it. The season is over. I didn’t write it just for you – but I thought you might find some things interesting and you know… conversation provoking.
It would be so refreshing to see you respond to one of 10 comments in depth instead of every comment as one sentence.
My post also deals with the fact that people who moved league (sheets/teixeira/bay/ramirez) are getting screwed in some manner. Where would Ramirez be if he had those numbers all in AL?
MW: It is too bad about that (you mean Sabathia, not Sheets, by the way), all those guys could have had solid shots at an MVP if the leagues’ stats weren’t kept separate.
- Wyatt BaileyAnd yes, post 14, In case you were looking.
MW: There’s no way I could miss it.
- Wyatt BaileyAnd, if you had actually looked, much of the space taken up by my “novel” is stats that anyone knowledgable in baseball already knows. It’s a very quick read.
MW: It’s really not a very quick read. It’s difficult to read tone online, so I don’t know if you’re being angry or sarcastic (or not). Look, it was really, really long. I’m dealing with a lot of these comments every day, of my own free will, for nothing in return. If you write something that long, I’m sorry, I’m not going to be able to get to it.
- Wyatt BaileyI really must thank Norm for such a constructive post. Thank you kindly for isolating the two small errors I made. There is a third, which I have already caught. Can you catch it too?
Typical Toronto fan response to a post made with heart, something I don’t think I’ve ever seen here.
How can conversation be started if it’s responded to like Norm? I’ll leave you all to you single sentence responses and shallow banter.
- Wyatt BaileyYes, I of course meant Sabathia.
- Wyatt BaileyI saw just a few minutes ago that Tom Cheek won the F. C. Frick award, is this true? If so, I am nothing but happy. I voted for Tom Cheek with more enthusiasm than any politician I’ve ever seen.
MW: No, Tom hasn’t won the Frick. He finished third in the fan balloting and moves onto the final ballot of 10. The winner will be announced December 9th.
- Wyatt BaileyI think I misread a Sportsnet bottom-of-screen information thing as I can not see anywhere that Cheek has won anything.
- Wyatt BaileyFor nothing in return? I would think that you would be payed for this. You know, part of your job.
I don’t get payed for my responses, either.
Perhaps you should focus on the posts that have meat behind them.
I’ve spent your entire career listening to the same crap you’ve listened to. If you’re never going to go in-depth, why bother having a blog at all? Or at least, why bother responding to comments to said blog.
MW: You don’t get paid for your responses? I don’t understand how that’s relevant in the least. And if you don’t like what you’re getting here, there are many other fine Blue Jays blogs you can read. Or, as I suggested, you can start your own.
- Wyatt BaileyDon’t get me wrong Mike, i love ya, and would never stop listening/reading.
It’s just it seems very rare to see an in-depth response here like you go in-depth with callers, and it’s too bad!
MW: I just don’t have that kind of time if I’m going to get through all these comments on a regular (daily in-season) basis.
- Wyatt Bailey