VOTE FOR TOM CHEEK!!! DETAILS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE POST!!!!
12:45 AM Eastern
The Jays opened their final series of the season by shutting out the long-since-having-packed-up Orioles in a game that was rained out four batters into the 7th inning.
Scott Richmond got his first big-league win, and it was the first start in which he got the last out of the 6th inning. He was denied his opportunity to throw a major-league pitch in the 7th for the first time in his life only because of Mother Nature. In each of his previous four starts in the bigs, Richmond had taken it into the 6th, but never finished the 6th, and had allowed exactly three runs. Tonight, he finished the 6th and didn’t allow a single run, nor did he allow a walk, and at one point he retired 17 of 18 Baltimore hitters. His 79 pitches thrown was also a career-low, in his career-long outing.
Yes, the Orioles are in another one of their patented September swoons. They haven’t had more than 10 wins in a September since 2004, and had a total of 11 wins in September ’01 and ’02 COMBINED. This year, they’re 4-19 so far in their favourite month. Still, their offense isn’t bad, and Richmond completely stifled them. He’s certainly opened some eyes this year and could find himself in a battle for the last spot in the Jays’ rotation next season. No doubt that’ll honk off some patriots, because if he has a shot to make the Jays, but only a shot, Richmond won’t be pitching for Canada at the World Baseball Festival.
Congrats, too, to Curtis Barnard Thigpen, who smacked his first big-league homer in the 7th. It came on the first pitch of the inning from Chris Waters, and went six or seven rows deep into the seats in the left-field corner. Years ago, it wouldn’t have counted, because they used to take the score from the last completed inning when a game was rained out after it had become official. Now, though, progress has been made, and everything counts right up until the last pitch.
It was a big day for Scott Rolen, too. He drove in the Jays’ first run with a ground-rule double to left-centre, added another hit, and made a spectacular defensive play on an Omir Santos grounder in the 3rd. As I mentioned in the comments, somehow I got it in my head that Rolen’s homer against the Yankees the other night was just his second since coming back off the D.L., but it was his 4th. In September (after two games in the last week of August when he came off the D.L.), Rolen has hit .298/.348/.524. Of course, we thought that May and June meant he was back, too. I’m hopeful, but still in wait-and-see mode.
The rain delay and subsequent rainout gave us plenty of time to JaysTalk it up, and here it is, for your listening pleasure:
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Remember, today and every day in the month of September, please vote for Tom Cheek and ONLY for Tom Cheek to be on the ballot for the Ford C. Frick Award to gain entry into the broadcasters’ wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. It’ll make more of an impact on the voters if Tom alone gets the overwhelming majority of the votes. Just click on this link:
http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/awards/frick_2008/vote.jsp
It’s a bit of a pain to fill out all the info, but it only takes two minutes at the most, and Tom Cheek was certainly worth your time. Thank you.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Hey Mike, another offseason thought/question here.
According to multiple sources throughout the year, it seems like the Tigers will attempt to cut payroll this offseason.
Here’s a link to the Detroit News article if you’re interested: http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/OPINION03/808130396/1004
The article mentions that they could slash up to $40M and one of the names that were floated is Magglio Ordonez, who’s owed $48M over the next 3 seasons ($16M/year).
The Jays need a big bat, and Detroit needs some young talent, trim a bit of payroll, and improve their dismal bullpen which is currently ranked 27th in ERA in all of baseball.
BJ Ryan + Adam Lind might be something that could help out both sides. (approx. $10.5M shipped out, $16M taken in).
Every offseason JP seems to swing a surprise trade to bring in a position player, and with the team needing a big bat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shop his bullpen depth to explore than avenue.
MW: I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen either, but if the Tigers are looking to cut payroll, they’re not going to be interested in bringing in a $10 million closer. They might be much more interested in moving Ordonez for Lind and another one of the cheaper young relievers.
- Alex from Mississaugahey mike, question;
you mention that Thigpen’s homerun will count and that years ago it wouldn’t have. In your humble opinion, would most current baseball broadcasters in large north merican markets know this change?
i was watching one broadcast in particular that would suggest the answer is ‘no’, but as always, curious to hear your take.
kind regards,
dwight s.
p.s. I am hearing rumblings that the yankees may leave scranton after the 2010 season, any chance the jays could move here after their deal with the 51′s is over?
I would be torn as 51 is my favorite prime number, but I don’t want my pitchers out there in 40 degree C las vegas heat.
MW: I wasn’t sure about the change, and I prefaced my comment that way, but yes, a lot of other people weren’t aware of it. Doesn’t mean they’re not good at their jobs. If the Yankees leave Scranton, the Jays would be very happy to get there, since it’s a heck of a lot closer than Vegas is. But someone else may want to move there and the whole musical chairs thing could begin all over again. I heard they’re trying to change the name of the 51s, actually.
- dwight s.I know statistics can be cheap, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that only four teams in all of baseball have a higher +/- ratio when you’re talking runs scored versus runs allowed than the Blue Jays who have a +96. The teams are the Cubs (+182), the Red Sox (+154), the Phillies (+113) and the Rays (+103). With two games remaining, it’s possible the Jays could catch the Rays. When you see that and then contemplate how good the starting and relief pitching have been and then realize this is one pf the best defensive clubs in baseball (with Johnny Mac on the bench no less) you begin to realize what might have been for this years club. There may not be any playoffs for the Jays this year, but I know the Jays are as good as any club who will be playing post season baseball in 2008. Too much progress has been made with this club for management not to make every effort to insure its competitiveness in 2009. It’s nice to have the likes of David Purcey, Scott Richmond, Casey Janssen and others to rely on, but I can’t help but to believe that management will pull the trigger on something big this off season. November and December should be very interesting.
MW: I don’t know about something big, but I definitely expect something.
- Jim in OhioHey Mike…I think we shouldn’t go after any pitcher that requires more than 2 years on his contract. Seeing as how this team is built to be pretty good for the next 5 to 6 years I think we should go with the young pitching and a proven bat at DH while Travis developes… I know Overbay has two years left on his contract and seeing as how Snider is better defensively then Lind could you see Adam being our future first basemen?
MW: I could. There’s a chance the Jays could give the right pitcher a three-year deal, but they’re very aware of how everything is set up to work through 2010.
- StewyMike, I just read a report stating that the Jays are prepared to offer AJ a $54 mil contract over four years. First off, do you think AJ will get significantly more (2mil plus) from another team at the same term or more? Secondly, would that leave any funds available to either take on a shortstop or attain further offensive help. Lastly, great job all year with the blog and Jays Talk. I have thoroughly enjoyed your work. Any blogging planned throughout the offseason and can we expect to hear you on the Fan regularly? Cheers
MW: I doubt you’ll hear me regularly through the off-season, but I won’t be ignoring the blog. I’ll be here once a week or so. I do think that A.J. will get significantly more than that from other suitors.
- paul sHey Mike
So JP will return as GM of the Jays for the 2009 season. I can’t say i’m overly excited about this decision, I was hoping the team would head in a different direction for the following reasons :
1 – The club is horrible offensively. JP gets credit for constructing one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, and he deserves it. What i don’t understand, is while he gets a pat on the back for the pitchers performance, he gets a pass when the offense stumbles because “the hitters are simply not performing to expectations”. Can’t have it both ways…if he gets the credit for the pitching staff, he should get the criticism for this pathetic offense. The club scored 2 runs or less 48 times this year, and he has to take some of the heat for that.
2 – The Frank Thomas contract. The team had much bigger needs at the time than yet another righty stick, but JP opted to sign big Frank for a whopping 18 million dollars and got one good year out of him. He was lucky Thomas started out so poorly this season as it gave him a chance to get out of the contract, which had a vesting option in 2009 for another 9 million.
3 – The Rolen for Glaus swap. True, both Rolen and Glaus wanted to leave their respective clubs, but why? Rolen was unhappy because LaRussa benched him due to his lack of producivity which was the result of various injuries. Rolen is a hard nosed aging player who has sustained multiple injuries and looks to be on the serious decline. By the time Rolen becomes a free agent in 2010, he will have cost he club over 30 million dollars.
4 – Adam Dunn. To his credit, JP admitted his rant was a huge error and apologized, but it was ridiculous from a man in his position regardless. After the rant, i stated on the blog that Dunn would finish the season with more home runs than any two Jays, and would lead the team in on-base percentage and RBI’s. Sure enough, he did. But no, we don’t need him because he hates baseball and doesn’t smile. What can i expect from a guy who thinks Scutaro is the team MVP. I notice Wilkerson has a nice smile though….
5 – Vernon Wells. JP signed him to the 6th largest contract in baseball history (at the time), 7 years/126 million. I like Vernon, but 18 million/season is horrible.
6 – Shortstop. 8 million spent at the position in 2008 and our starter is Scutaro. Nothing against Scoot, but he would not be starting on any other club in the majors. Ecstein given 4.5 million to ride the pine.
7- Draft record. The teams overall minor league talent was ranked at the bottom by every publication including Baseball America. I hear about this great up and comer named Robinson Diaz, and then he is dealt for next to nothing. Sure, Arencibia has passed him as a prospect, but if Diaz was really that good we should have got much more in return (but he wasn’t that good). Defend his draft record if you will, but you can’t dispute the fact that he is getting crushed at the draft table by various rivals in the AL east like Boston and Tampa. Since JP arrived, the Bosox have drafted (at the end of each round i might add), guys like Papelbon, Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis, Masterson, Ellsbury and Lowrie. And no Mike, the Redsox don’t typically pay way over slot. If fact, the Jays gave more to Ricky Romero (2.4 million) than the Redsox gave to any of the players i just listed.
8 – 7 years, no playoffs appearances (not even close). For me as a fan, its about getting to watch my favourite team compete in october for a possible world series, not battle the injury depleted Yanks for 3rd place. Excitement for a possible 3rd place finish should be reserved for teams like Pittsburgh or Washington.
I could go on, but i realize i’ve likely taken up too much space here as it is. Believe it or not, i hope Mr.Riccardi makes the necessary moves to get this team into the playoffs (its been way to long). Thank you Mike for your efforts on the blog and the post game show, i’ve really enjoyed them immensely this year. Although i don’t always agree with your opinion, i really do enjoy having a place to chat about this great game.
take care,
Rick
MW: 1 – The hitters lack of performance is on the hitters, not the guy who hired them. 2 – Thomas’ signing didn’t seem to lead to the Jays missing out on any other free agents they wanted to add. 3 – Everything you said about Rolen there could have been said about Glaus going into this season (hard nosed, aging, having sustained multiple injuries, in decline). 4 – Dunn’s a great hitter, which is the only thing that should matter. 5 – That contract was way more Godfrey/Rogers than Ricciardi. 6 – An issue. 7 – The Jays’ draft has borne plenty of fruit since Ricciardi. 8 – Big picture.
- rickAs I stated in an earlier post–I have no problem with Richmond as a swing man and fill-in end-of-rotation starter.
He doesn’t beat himself–he throws strikes and once he masters the art of putting away batters on a consistent basis I can easily see 120-150 IP of league average-ish pitching.
And that has value to a team–even a contending one. He’s gone at least five innings in his starts with a devilishly good BB/9 of .666 and a hellishly decent K/9 of 6.66 when you consider where he was pitching last year at this time.
He reminds me of Bill James TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect).
Yes, the Jays have their work cut out for them in the offseason but I think opening 2009 with a rotation of Halladay, [free agent starter], Litsch, Purcey and Richmond along with the bullpen can hold the fort until the return of McGowan.
Barring a wave of injuries, the offense should be much improved next year, at the very least league average.
I’m beginning to think that Travis Snider will have to play himself out of a job next season with the focus on upgrading the rotation–Markakis robbed him of a hit in the sixth after he turned on that pitch by Waters.
Nice to see he and Lind face the lefties–may as well get them a little experience before the season ends.
Even nicer to see Richmond get some runs to work with–it’s a shame rain shortened the game as it looked like the Jays’ had finally figured out/gotten to Waters. I realize the Jays were expected to be a little flat when they first faced him but to get shut down for 14 straight innings by a rookie made me wonder if he’s a distant relative of Matt Garza.
Best Regards
John
MW: With respect – “him and Lind face the lefties”.
- John B.Hey Mike it looks like Mussina will get the last start of the Yankees regular season and a chance to finally win 20 games in a season. I hope to God he blows it!!! I can’t stand this… guy! I believe you have similar opinions. I remember you said he B*****d and whined after he had a bad outing and said it was because The Jays celebrated Tom Cheek and he thought that it threw him off his rythem(like the Yanks haven’t done similar pre-game festivities before in there own house). Also yesterday I remember on the Jaystalk you said something in regards to Cito never wanting to have anything to do with him playing for him.
- Matt from BCHi Mike; I noticed that Alan had to call Thigpen’s home run after the fact due to a too-long commercial break. Why does this happen?
MW: Sometimes the last play of the previous inning makes it tough to get out of that inning quickly, so we can be late coming back.
- ZackAfter watching the 3 Stooges on DVD(everyone has their weaknesses)and then watching the Orioles play, I thought I’d found some lost episodes. I think if Nick Markakis hangs around these “knuckleheads” long enough, he might end up doing eye pokes, hair pulls and start some “nyuk,nyuk,nyuk” chants on the bench. Love the blog and Jays Talk, Michael, and long live Larry,Curley and Moe.(or are they already running the NHL)
- chriswhat are your thoughts about the package that the Jays are reporting to offer AJ?
MW: I think it’s a lot less than what he’ll get on the open market.
- DavidMike – was listening to the call-in show last night and wanted to correct a caller who said “JP’s first 3 Drafts have only produced 4 Major League players”.
JP’s first 3 drafts were 2002, 2003 and 2004.
Even if you don’t include Russ Adams, the 2002 Draft produced David Bush. Also, Jason Perry, Jordan De Jong and Dewon Day have reached the Major Leagues from that Draft.
In 2003, the first 3 players chosen were Aaron Hill, Josh Banks and Shaun Marcum – not too bad. Also selected in that draft were Jamie Vermilyea and Tom Mastny.
The 2004 Draft has placed David Purcey, Zach Jackson, Curtis Thigpen, Adam Lind, Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch in the Major Leagues. In that season the Blue Jays had two extra picks for having lost Kelvim Escobar, but still 5 of the first 6 players selected have played in the Major Leagues.
By my count that’s 7 solid regulars from those three drafts (Bush, Hill, Marcum, Purcey, Lind, Janssen, Litsch) to go with 9 other players who have been “cup of coffee” guys or trade worthy.
By comparison over those same 3 drafts the Baltimore Orioles have produced 4 solid regulars (Loewen, Maine, Markakis, Ray) with 5 complementary players (Penn, Fahey, McCrory, Hoey, Fiorentino).
The Red Sox have produced 6 solid regulars (Lester, Murphy, Murton, Papelbon, Pedroia, Meredith) and 2 complementary players (Chris Smith, Alvarez).
The Yankees have produced 1 solid regular (Phil Hughes) and 6 complementary players (Halsey, Coke, Clippard, Beam, Karstens, McCutchen)
The Rays have produced 5 solid regulars (Upton, Dukes, Hammel, Young, Sonnanstine) 6 complementary players (Pridie, Bankston, Jaso, Orvella, Niemann, Perez). Of note is that they also have 3 good prospects from the 2004 Draft who appear to have Major League futures (Brignac, Davis, Mcgee – though out for 2009)
Folks can draw their own conclusions from this. The figure of 4 Major League players that the caller referenced sounded incorrect so I wanted to research it for myself.
MW: Nice work. And don’t forget guys like Adam Peterson and Bubbie Buzachero, who were turned into major-league assets via trade.
- GregMike, do you think the Blue Jays would willing to shell out 20 million per to keep Roy Halladay in a Blue Jays uniform?
MW: Yep.
- andrewHi Mike….. High school homework was the undoing of my youth and now with the kids doing theirs, it cuts into my valuable “Mike Wilner” time… With the season winding down, I’m going to go nostalgic on you Mr. Wilner. With all the talk of salaries, contracts,etc..I like to go back in my mind to 1977 and grabbing a one dollar ticket at Dominion hopping on the GO-Train and going down to the Ex. to see a doubleheader against the Yanks. Didn’t care how much money Otto Velez, Al Woods or Pete Vukovich made or the fact that the Jays would understandably lose both ends of that doubleheader because you had Ron Guidry and Catfish Hunter going against Jesse Jefferson and Jerry Garvin, and Billy Martin vs. Roy Hartsfield. How far back do you go with the Jays, Mike, and do any old memories stick out for you?
MW: I go back as far as that, and lots of old memories stick out for me. More the players that I liked to follow as a kid than actual games and events, but I remember the 19-3 win over the Guidry and the Yanks (at least being told about it), I have fond memories of guys like Alvis Woods, Jerry Garvin, Bob Bailor and Roy Howell. I remember how exciting it was when John Mayberry hit his 30th homer on the last day of the season in 1980, I remember Danny Ainge and Brian Milner, and being stunned when the Jays traded Rick Cerone to the Yankees. I could go on and on.
- chrisgo tom cheeks
MW: Go vote for Tom Cheek!
- Maciej KaczmarekHey, thanks again for taking my call last night.
I just wanted to chime in with my disbelief at how people are all over Roy Halladay.
I think it really shows ignorance when you dog (arguably) the best pitcher in the majors when he’s had very little run support and very few bad outings.
Look at his losses:
Apr 1: 3-2 NYY
Apr 17: 4-1 Tex
Apr 23: 5-3 TB
Apr 29: 1-0 Boston
May 9: 8-3 TB
Jun 14: 6-2 Cubs
Jul 19: 2-1 TB
Jul 29: 3-0 TB
Aug 9: 4-2 Clev
Sept 10: 6-5 Wsox
Sept 14: 4-3 Boston
I see only THREE games where the opposition scored 6 runs or more. THREE. So Roy had THREE bad outings all year.
Let’s look at the run support in the games he lost:
Average: 22 runs / 11 losses = 2. 2 runs. Ya, thanks offense.
If the Jays scored at least 4 runs in each of his losses or no decisions, he has 5 extra wins (the 5th is the 1-0 no decision in pittsburgh on June 20th) and 3 of those games are unfinished because the other team won with 4 runs so who knows what would have happened. But even if all those were losses, he has 5 more definative wins.
So instead of 20-11-3, he’s 25-7-2.
Ya, let’s jump all over Roy Halladay. In fact, let’s trade him, since you know, he’s not a big game pitcher.
Some people need to give their heads a shake I think.
Angelo
MW: Amen to that.
- AngeloDoes Curtis Thigpen’s home run count and where could I find the league rule on this to prove to my Mom that his home run counts?
MW: The home run counts. If you need it, mlb.com has the rulebook online.
- Matt YoungHere’s a crazy idea. We should offer AJ Burnett a new contract.. and make it like Time Wakefields – perpetual club options.
The other crazy idea is – bring in Delgado to be DH
MW: Time Wakefield signed that contract because he’s 60 and didn’t have tons of other teams breaking down his door.
- Sam McLeanMW: Hill wasn’t a mistake, never mind a big mistake, and Hinske wasn’t a big mistake, either. Tosca and Gibbons were unproven but had great track records. You saying again that Izturis played well for the Dodgers doesn’t make it true. Delgado’s leaving was due to the payroll available to the Jays at the time, so blame Rogers for that.
Mike,
I am willing to admit that Hinske was just a regular mistake (not a big one), and agree to disagree on Hill (I still think a below average height, average speed, average power, average arm, poor footwork short-stop is not a first round pick) but..
Neither Tosca or Gibby had managed in the majors before, so where were these track records? (if he was looking for a proven manager with a great tarck record ….).
Delgado was willing to stay here for below market value, and in fact went to the Marlins for $4,000,000. He was replaced by Hillenbrand $3,870,000 and Koskie $3,500,000 so do the math.
MW: Saying Delgado went to the Marlins for $4,000,000 is intellectually dishonest. Delgado signed a 4 year contract worth $52 million with an option for a 5th year that could make it worth as much as $64 million. So he didn’t go to the Marlins for four million bucks, even though that was his first year salary. When you have to mangle the truth to make your arguments fit, it indicates something about your arguments. And as for Tosca and Gibbons, they had very good track records in the minors, and most big-league managers start there.
- Cito ManHey Mike,
Just wanted to reiterate that you’ve done an awesome job this year on the radio and the blog. I check it every day.
Also, I’m sure you’ve seen this by now, but I thought I’d pass along this Star article:
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/507488
It claims the Jays are going to make a pitch to keep A.J., and that A.J. seems somewhat receptive to the whole thing.
I’ve felt frustrated by J.P. at times this year, but if he can keep A.J. and add a nice DH bat I will be truly impressed. Here’s hoping.
MW: I have a feeling that’s just the starting point for negotiations. At least, that’s what Burnett and his people are hoping if they plan on keeping him.
- James HHello Mike
When looking at ERA and games won, Cliff Lee wins the cy young hands down. What needed to be pointed out here is that Halladay plays in the American League East and must face the Yankees and Red Sox more times than Lee.
Are there stats that would allow you to compare pitchers this way? I am sure there is…
By the way Mike, thanks for the great season, really enjoy your show and look forward to hearing from you again next spring.
MW: There are tons of stats that would allow you to compare pitchers by looking at their opposition. Looking at wins, by the way, is one of the worst ways to determine which pitcher is better, or is even having a better season.
- francis xMW: I have no idea who will be a free agent after 2010 (beyond several Blue Jays). I would assume Halladay would command top dollar.
Here:
Lefties
Gustavo Chacin
Scott Downs Toronto Blue
Jeff Francis Colorado Rockies (Team option for 2011 for 7M)
Scott Kazmir Tampa Bay Rays
Wil Ledezma San Diego Padres
Ted Lilly Chicago Cubs
Nate Robertson Detroit Tigers
Billy Traber Washington Nationals
Dontrelle Willis Detroit Tigers
Righties:
Joe Blanton Oakland Athletics
Jeremy Bonderman Detroit Tigers
A.J. Burnett Toronto Blue Jays(if he doesnt opt out and doesnt sign a contract, at which is very very very very unlikely and the one thing in my life will never happen)
Dave Bush Milwaukee Brewers
Daniel Cabrera Baltimore Orioles
Chad Gaudin Oakland Athletics
Roy Halladay Toronto Blue Jays
Aaron Harang Cincinnati Reds(2011 11M option 2M buyout)
Hiroki Kuroda Los Angeles Dodgers
Sergio Mitre Florida Marlins
Jeff Suppan Milwaukee Brewers (2011 12.75M team option or 2M buyout)
Javier Vazquez Chicago White Sox
Doug Waechter Florida Marlins
Jake Westbrook Cleveland Indians
Jerome Williams Minnesota Twins
Chris Young San Diego Padres (2011 8.5M team option)
so those are the guys who are going to be FA in 2010. Seems like a good crop but a lot could change in 2 years.
As for Doc, i think on the open market he can easily be worth 17-19M a year
MW: Gustavo Chacin? Jerome Williams? LOTS can change in two years.
- Nick I.Any chance these trades could go through?
Adam Lind, Bradley Mills or David Purcey, although Purcey may be too much,and John Tolisano to Brewers for Prince Fielder.
This after we aquired Fielder; Lyle Overbay, Brian Wolfe,and Davis Romero to Atheltics for Gio Gonzalez. Would that be enough to get Gonzalez?
Aaron Mathews to Cubs for Reed Johnson.
Gio Ganzalez would give us a pitcher with fantastic potential and is probably ready to step in next year although he’s struggling this year with Oakland, Fielder would give us a power bat at first and Reed Johnson would give us a right handed hitting fourth outfielder.
What do ya think Mike?
MW: Gio Gonzalez has already been traded for Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome and Nick Swisher. You’re not going to get him for Overbay, Wolfe and Davis Romero. That’s a hefty package for Fielder, but probably worth it. I don’t think the Cubs would make that deal for Reed, and I don’t think the Jays need a 4th outfielder.
- Ian (not Kinsler)On the Wed. morning 20 minute sports wrap-ups on the Fan590, I believe that you were saying that in the Tues. night game vs. N.Y. the home plate umpire (I think his surname is Vanover?)had a tight strike zone, but in the same sentence, you said that there were many strikeouts with a lot of them being called third strikes. At the risk of nit-picking, Mike, wouldn’t that be considered a liberal stike zone?
MW: It would, and that’s certainly what I meant. I’m not sure I actually said “tight” in reference to Vanover’s strike zone, though.
- chris m.It’s difficult to argue with success, but how could Tampa give up on Jorge Cantu? But your answer might be 2 words….Evan Longoria… or is there more to it?
MW: Cantu had a terrible year in 2006 and got off to a horrible start in 2007 with the Devil Rays, leading to his trade to Cincinnati.
- chris m.Hi Mike,
I don’t know if you’ve seen the Star today so here are some VERY interesting quotes….I’d bet dollars to timbits you’re wrong again HE’S (AJ) COMING BACK!!! Nice to see it’s JP’s TOP priority!
Sounds like he’s not all about the Benjamins after all!
BALTIMORE–The Blue Jays are preparing to offer A.J. Burnett a new, improved four-year deal in order to persuade him to remain with the club.
The new contract would add two years and $30 million (all figures U.S.) to Burnett’s existing contract
“Our first priority is to try and keep A.J.,” GM J.P. Ricciardi said yesterday.
Burnett seemed pleasantly surprised to hear the proposed new number yesterday.
“Nice,” he said, nodding his head approvingly. “That’s more than I thought they would come up with (pause). Here, at least.”
“It’s about comfort, about being in a situation you’re familiar with,” Burnett said. “It’s really not about the money.”
Burnett was signalling that what many thought was a foregone conclusion – that he will leave – is far from it.
“It’s definitely pleasing to hear,” Burnett said of the club’s proposed offer.
“I love being on this team.”
MW: Just like I told you on The JaysTalk – talk is cheap.
- Dave from OakvilleHas your perspective on the Jays retaining Burnett changed lately with the reported contract the Jays are ready to offer A.J.?
If Burnett happened to accept the Jays offer, Would Ricciardi’s main goal change to a big DH bat or would he continue to go after another pitcher (Derek Lowe, or Carl Pavano type) and get the bat that’s left behind?
MW: If Burnett accepts, which I have a very hard time believing he will, the Jays would then go look for a bat with the money they have left over, while still trying to bring in some cheap flier options for the rotation.
- Ian (not Kinsler)A legend is dead today! What is your favorite Paul Newman movie Mike? Both as actor and producer/director.
MW: Off the top of my head, doesn’t it have to be Slapshot?
- BeburgJust saw briefly on the T.V. sports ticker about Rocco Baldelli having a form of muscular dystrophy. Hope he’s going to be okay….that kid has had horrible luck health-wise. When you hear stuff like this and the tragedy with the young son of the ex-Oilers’ goalie, it really puts things originally thought to be important, like whether Burnett comes back or not,or where Sundin’s going, into real perspective.
MW: You shouldn’t need the death of a four-year old to put sports into perspective, but those kinds of things do tend to give people’s heads a shake.
- chris m.I know he’d never admit it, but do you think the fact that Riccardi’s job will be on the line, that he may be more agressive this offseason. Possibly be more willing to mortgage the future, or offer Burnett a ridicolous contract, and push aside the future implications?
MW: I doubt it. He’s very proud of the future he’s building here. There’s no question, though, that he knows his job is very much on the line.
- TerryI can’t believe J.P is coming back. I guess all toronto sports teams have the same sickness. See you at this day next year, same result, same cliche for your Toronto Blue Jays.
MW: OK
- Danny from MapleAre you eating your words yet about the Rays? You should apologize to the Rays organization for your stubborness…
MW: See? This is what I mean.
- Vintagehey mike,
- diegomy apologies in advance if this has been brought up in a blog post before, but i found i was having trouble voting for Tom for the Ford C. Frick award.
i was using Firefox to browse the internet, there would be an error with my vote.
anyway, if anyone is having this problem, use internet explorer. it is working, and i’ve been voting.
I think we’ve seen how smart a GM Andrew Friedman is, we know Theo Epstein might be the smartest GM in baseball, and the Yankees have a infinite amount of resources.
I think JP is a good GM, he’d be good enough to win another division but in this division I feel like we need someone with the talent of a Billy Beane or Theo Epstein who can figure out how to get us another 5-7 wins.
Again, I think JP has done a lot of great stuff, but he just happens to be in a division with some smarter guys.
Can we get one of those smarter guys who doesn’t alienate potential free agents who would have been a good fit? (Adum Dunn)
“Luck is the residue of design.”
MW: Andrew Friedman is so smart that he knew Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell would form a shutdown bullpen. He’s so smart that he DFA’d Carlos Pena before last season and only brought him back because Greg Norton got hurt. How’s that about design again?
- JasonThe Jays starting Zaun tonight leads me to believe that they want him to be their backup next year. Otherwise Thigpen would most definetly start. Any truth behind this?
MW: No.
- Ian (not Kinsler)Mike, which pitcher would you rather have: Roy Halladay or Johan Santana and why?
MW: I don’t know. I’m certainly more familiar with Halladay’s awesemnity, but Santana is great, too.
- andrewA few questions:
1. Should the Blue Jays take a flyer at Japanese pitchers Lake Tazawa and Yu Darvish? i know you`re probably not up to speed on both of them but I`m sure we will all hear their names a lot come November.
2. On a related note, has the bidding process for Japanese pitchers with under 10 years of service changed at all in the new CBA?
3. And finally, I vote for Tom everyday but I`m just wondering if you know what the date is when they will announce the results of the vote. Here’s a plug for everyone else: http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/awards/frick_2008/vote.jsp
MW: 1 – The posting fees will be out of their league. 2 – I don’t believe so. 3 – I don’t, sometime in October, I’d imagine. Thanks for voting!
- Phil C.Coming from a city whose soccer club always had one bona fide superstar in its lineup and lost every year, I’m here to tell you one is not enough.
MW: There’s no comparison.
You know what, Mike? I’ll absolutely listen to you on baseball. But I grew up all over UK Premier League soccer. Season tix to every home game. Watched every away game we could see. We had our superstar every freaking year. We watched Liverpool win and Manchester United win and the reason we didn’t win and they did was because they had a team, not a superstar. So don’t tell me ‘there’s no comparison.’ There’s a comparison.
The Jays don’t have a team right now. They may get one next year, and Cito will help in that regard. But this year we didn’t have a team, we had a bunch of try-outs, most of which didn’t work out. Like Eckstein, Stewart and Thomas. Rolen was no great shakes either.
MW: There’s no comparison between baseball and soccer.
- reyesMike, what makes you so confident they will be able to keep Roy Halladay? I mean they will have Vernon Wells making 23 mil and Alex Rios making 12 mil, plus the pay raises they will eventually give Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Plus, the market for pitching has changed so much now since Roy Halladay signed his last contract. It will take Johan Santana type money so keep this guy. I’m not so confident as you.
MW: OK
- andrewHey Mike, can you talk to Cito, and ask him to play Rios. I need him big time on my fantasy team.
MW: Sorry.
- Jason DeneaulMike, I just heard the caller on the rain delay show talk about Shannon Stewart. I was a supporter of Johnson over Stewart in the begging until I got his stats from a few years ago. I haven’t seen Stewart play since he was a Jay so it was kind of debatable for me. But the thing that fans remember is that Stewart was terrible. If Johnson was here it was probably going to be the same case. No one started to believe in this team until the management took over. No one expected that the team would be hitting this bad with runners in scoring position. I want to see what Stewart would have been with Gaston at the helm. He just didn’t get the opportunity because he was injured. But I guess we’ll never know.
MW: We never will, but that won’t stop people from believing that releasing Reed was the biggest mistake this team ever made.
- gregHi Mike,
Quick question: do you think the Blue Jays wish they had hung on to Jayson Werth? Hindsight is always great, but it looks like he’s blossoming. What did we get for him, if anything?
By the way, I won’t have any chance to post in the next week so just wanted to say that I have thoroughly enjoyed reading the blog. Thank you for an amazing and dedicated effort on your part during a very long season.
Somebody should ambush you with a shaving cream pie out of appreciation for your efforts.
It would be neat for you to do a top 10 list about the blog when you’re done for the year..top 10 most commonly asked questions that didn’t need to be asked, your personal hi-lights etc.
Looking at the delayed game internet scoreboard with Lyle Overbay standing out there on his lonesome at 2nd base, I still think you should’ve taken up my idea of hosting an end of year Blog BBQ with Lyle serving up the food.
enjoy the off season and hope your back gets better!
cheers
MW: Thanks for the kind words. The Jays got Jason Frasor for Werth four years ago. It does look like Werth is finally blossoming, but he’s on his second organization since the Jays traded him, and he left L.A. as a free agent after hitting .234/.338/.374 in 2006.
- Oz RobDo you think the Jays would have made the playoffs if they would have gotten rid of that country bumpkin Gibbons earlier?
I mean I’m sure he’s a good guy at all, but he didn’t come across as the brightest star in the sky.
MW: Because he spoke with an accent? That’s nicely racist of you.
- RandalWilner,
Decided to take on a little task. I know how you typically say the season is too early after the first month, so I decided to track all division leaders and wild card leaders on April 30th for the past 8 years and see if they went on to make the playoffs. Here are the results:
As of April 30th
08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01
AL E Bos Bos NY Bal Bos NY Bos Bos
AL W LA LA Tex LA Tex Oak Sea Sea
AL C Chi Cle Chi Chi Min KC Chi Min
AL WC Oak Det Det Min Chi Bos Ny Tor
NL E Flo Atl NY Flo Flo Atl Phi Mtl
NL W Ari Ari Col LA LA SF Ari LA
NL C Chi Mil Cin Stl Chi Chi Cin Chi
NL WC Stl NY Stl Ari SD Mtl NY Cin
End of Year
08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01
AL E TB Bos NY Bos NY NY NY NY
AL W LA LA Oak LA LA Oak Oak Sea
AL C — Cle Min Chi Min Min Min Cle
AL WC Bos NY Det NY Bos Bos Ana Oak
NL E Phi Phi NY Atl Atl Atl Atl Atl
NL W LA Ari La SD LA SF Ari Ari
NL C Chi Chi Stl Stl Stl Chi Stl Hou
NL WC — Col SD Hou Hou Flo SF Stl
So here are the results, based on the percentage of teams that made the playoffs in each year.
’08 – 50% (3 of 6 teams as of today)
’07 – 50%
’06 – 50%
’05 – 37.5%
’04 – 50%
’03 – 75%
’02 – 25%
’01 – 12.5%
Not sure if I proved anything, but it looks like the average since ’03 is that if you’re in a playoff spot at the end of April, there is a 50% chance they will end up in the playoffs.
MW: OK, so if you’re in a playoff spot at the end of April, there’s as much of a chance that you won’t make the playoffs than that you will.
- BobbyHey Mike….first want to say that JP deserves to come back…didn’t think so at the start of Aug, but there are some signs of hope. I like the idea of putting JP in a situation where he is feeling heat, has to recoginize that no playoffs next year, then he is gone. Saying that I feel that Rogers is noticing the attention the jays got, record tv ratings, and some good crowds, build a winner and this town will be follow a winner. I expect JP to be very active, probably won’t announce a budget, and try to sign and trade for the holes in our lineup.
MW: I think he’ll be pretty active this winter, too.
- RockMike, you havn’t told why you think Halladay might sign an extension?
- andrewThe Jays starting Zaun tonight leads me to believe that they want him to be their backup next year. Otherwise Thigpen would most definetly start. Any truth behind this?
MW: No.
Then why would they start Zaun over Thigpen?
MW: Because they have two catchers on the roster.
- Ian (not Kinsler)But who would you have started in the game?
MW: Huh?
- Ian (not Kinsler)MW: Gustavo Chacin? Jerome Williams? LOTS can change in two years.
i just copied and pasted those players and its true lots can change. But looking at those players if those were the players available right now and doc was on the market this year with those players. How much do u think doc can get???
MW: He’ll be 33, so he won’t set a new standard, but he’s a $20 million guy easy.
- Nick I.mike, the reason joe carter routinely had 100 rbis was not because he was “opportunistic” it was because he did the job with risp. his slug was .467 and ops was .805 with risp. from 86 to 94 his slug only dropped below .465 once. vernon? 3 times in past 7 years
MW: Joe Carter was a good hitter, but there’s this notion out there that he became a different guy when he had the chance to drive in a big run, and it’s simply not true. Carter hit .259/.306/.464 for his career, and while the OPS does go up 30 points with runners in scoring position (.271/.338/.467), that’s not a huge difference. More surprisingly, in “late and close” situations, which means tie game, game within one run or tying run on deck in the 7th inning or later, Carter hit 239/.296/.397 – that’s awful.
- rocco“MW: With respect – “him and Lind face the lefties”.”
Merci. (raps knuckles)
Now you know why so many of my editors are members of AA.
Best Regards
John
- John B.“Are you eating your words yet about the Rays? You should apologize to the Rays organization for your stubborness…
MW: See? This is what I mean.”
Excuse me Mike, but I have to get this off my chest:
Well, I’ve been saying on radio shows since early July that the Twins hitting with RISP wasn’t sustainable and they’d fall back into the depths of the AL Central.
Guess what? I was wrong–it happens. If you want a man to give his opinions/predictions you have to be aware that nobody has a 100% success rate.
Back on Wednesday September 10th with the Phillies three back of the Mets I said on ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show that the Phils would win the division.
Guess what? I was right–big whoop.
Unless somebody is the second coming of Nostradamus or Daniel the Hebrew nobody has the right to throw that in somebody’s face AND there’s no need for an apology on Mike’s part. Had the Rays missed the post season I doubt we’d be reading posts like that–it’s damned easy to be smug after the results are in.
Every year, media types are asked for their predictions and since baseball is the most unpredictable of sports a lot of those predictions will be wrong. Just go back and look at the pre-season prognostications regarding this season and compare them with how they ultimately played out.
Are you surfing every media site where a writer made predictions about the season and demanding apologies from the writers to the organizations they said wouldn’t make the post season? I’m willing to bet a lot of them felt up to the final week of the season that the Mets would win the NL East, others probably stuck to the notion up to sometime in September that the Red Sox would in the AL East, still others wouldn’t budge on the notion that the Diamondbacks would win the NL West until sometime this month.
Are you diligently tracking such ones down and demanding apologies on behalf of the “offended” organizations?
I’m guessing the answer is no and you’re simply indulging in a little phallucranial behaviour to make yourself feel like a big man.
Well, we’re all duly impressed–I’m sure hotties are breaking down your door even as we speak so impressed are they with your courage and wisdom.
(sarcasm detector starts to smoke and vibrate)
Mike has the right to remain silent but a lot of folks here ask for his opinion/predictions on things. He doesn’t have to answer them at all and nobody has the right to demand Mike do so. If he’s gracious enough to stick his neck out to answer people’s queries then it’s incumbent on us to accept that sometimes he’s gonna be right and sometime he’s gonna be wrong–just like the rest of us and to treat him the way we wish to be treated when we make mistakes.
I’m sure that the person dumping on Mike here has never had a strongly held opinion that turned out to be wrong–that he’s a veritable oracle of wisdom and foresight … so much so that he’s posting from his mansion having made a fortune in the stock market and in sports betting and indeed is in high demand in corporate North America for his ability to foretell future events with unerring accuracy.
(sweeps up remnants of sarcasm detector)
Abraham Lincoln once stated that it’s better to be silent and thought a fool that to speak and remove all doubt and unless the poster in question has a track record that is the envy of all I suggest they take it to heart.
A little class goes a long way. That statement didn’t diminish Mike–it diminished the person making it.
Rant finished.
Best Regards
John
MW: Wow.
- John B.Thanks for all your work on this blog, Mike. I enjoyed reading it and look forward to occasional off-season updates.
Mark Golden
MW: Thanks! Keep checking in!
- Mark GoldenMW: There’s no comparison between baseball and soccer.
A game is a game is a game. A cohesive team will always win out over a bunch of disparate players. See Red Sox and Yankees.
MW: See the A’s and Yankees of the 1970s, or the 2002 Giants, just to name a few. Your second sentence isn’t even remotely true, especially in baseball.
- reyesHey Mike,
What does the future hold for Thigpen? He had a pretty terrible season at Syracuse this year, and was starting to play other defenseive positions outside of catcher. He hasn’t really played enough at the Majors to say much, though I can’t say he’s impressed in the few at bats he has had (minus the homer).
With Jeroloman and Arencibia coming up (and Eric Kratz to a lesser degree), what becomes of Thigpen? Is the backup job his to lose next season, with JP and Jeroloman starting the year is Vegas (Vegas, ugh).
I can see them starting the year with Thigpen, especially since JP has never even faced a AAA pitcher. However, if he shows through April and May that he can tear up AAA pitching and Thigpen continues to struggle at the Major league level, maybe they call up JP after the end of April in order to 1) give Thigpen a better look to see what he can do in the Majors, and 2) delay JP’s arbitration an extra year (like the Rays did with Longoria).
MW: I think that Thigpen does have the inside track on the back-up job next year, and I don’t believe we’ll see Arencibia until July, at least.
- BradleyHey Mike
Just read the post regarding Japanese players. Yu Darvish would be an ace in the Majors, but it doesn’t look like he will be posted anytime soon. Even if he is, as you point out, he would command Matsuzuka type coin which would be way out of the Jays range. There are 3 guys that are free agents and can sign anywhere they want. Any chance JP would have a look at Hitoki Iwase, Koji Uehera or Kaz Saitoh? To this point i have never heard of the Jays being interested in free agents for the Japanese league.
MW: I’m sure they’ll look at everyone, but I’m not familiar at all with those three guys.
- rick“MW: Wow.”
Well, something had to be said. It shouldn’t be asking too much of guests to insist that they be housebroken.
Best Regards
John
MW: Swell of you to say.
- John B.Re #55 — just a note for future blogger/posters — we’re going to have to expand our abbreviations, or risk endless confusion.
Ricciardi should become JPR, and Arencibia JPA — a simple JP isn’t going to be enough, especially if both individuals are somehow being addressed in the same post!
- NormMW: Andrew Friedman is so smart that he knew Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell would form a shutdown bullpen. He’s so smart that he DFA’d Carlos Pena before last season and only brought him back because Greg Norton got hurt. How’s that about design again?
If your not going credit Andrew Friedman for Pena then I guess JP should not be given credit for Litch and Marcum, given the fact that they only reason Litsh and Marcum have seen the majors is because of injuries, a Gill Mech and Ted Lilly Deal that fell through and a waste of an Olka signing.
MW: Wow, you need spellcheck. There’s a HUGE difference between having young players under control, developing in your minor-league system and preparing to release a player because you have no use for him.
- NeilMW: Saying Delgado went to the Marlins for $4,000,000 is intellectually dishonest. Delgado signed a 4 year contract worth $52 million with an option for a 5th year that could make it worth as much as $64 million. So he didn’t go to the Marlins for four million bucks, even though that was his first year salary. When you have to mangle the truth to make your arguments fit, it indicates something about your arguments. And as for Tosca and Gibbons, they had very good track records in the minors, and most big-league managers start there.
Mike,
Do not accuse me of intellectual dishonesty (a serious charge) since you cannot substantiate it. I stated the facts that I knew. One does not need intellectual dishonesty, however to show that Ricciardi is an incompetent GM (which is the real point here). Just look at 3rd base, SS, 2nd base, LF, DH, catcher, no speed, no power. It does require intellectual incompetence to conclude that he has done a good job.
MW: How is it that you “knew” that the Marlins got Delgado for four million dollars, when in fact they got him for 4/$52? As for the rest of your comment – not worth a response.
- Cito ManHey Mike, unless I missed it, I can’t believe you missed lighting up poster #2 for suggesting 51 is a prime number.
MW: Nah, you didn’t miss it. It was a funny line, I didn’t want to hurt his feelings with the 17 x 3 thing.
- Mark McDonaldAnd the guy who said Hill has an average arm.
MW: I thought I did rip that guy. Hill has a cannon.
- Mark McDonald