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11:45 PM Eastern
Jesse Carlson has done many, many good things for the Blue Jays this season. He’s come out of nowhere to have a phenomenal year, helping to anchor baseball’s best bullpen, and was the Jays’ overwhelming selection as both the club’s rookie of the year and most pleasant surprise of the season. So let’s not blame him for the loss that basically clinched a fourth-place finish, the first time the Jays will hold that position at the end of a season since 1996, a year in which they finished 74-88 and Pat Hentgen won the Jays’ first Cy Young Award.
How about we blame the offense instead? After perfectly executing the textbook “how to manufacture a run” in the first, with a double, grounder to the right side and sac fly (OK, maybe not perfectly. Perfectly starts with an infield single and a stolen base.), they managed just three more hits all night. Phil Hughes gave up all five of those hits in his eight innings of work. The same Phil Hughes who, yes, has tremendous stuff and by all indications will be a great pitcher someday, but against whom the league was hitting .349 going into tonight. Also, he had a WHIP Over 2.00. 19 of the last 21 Jays to come to bat were retired. This was as ugly as pretty much any point in the early part of the season, and the Jays seem to have slid into those old habits in the season’s last week – having scored a total of three runs in their last three games combined.
A.J. Burnett was terrific in what was likely his final performance as a Blue Jay. He only gave up one earned run in eight innings, walking two and striking out 11. The two runs he allowed both came on one swing of the bat, a 1-2 fastball to Xavier Nady that was either over the outside black or off the outside corner. Much like David Ortiz and his homer off Scott Richmond on Sunday, Nady leaned out and hit a pitch he had no business hitting, and stroked it on a line to centrefield for a two-run single.
It was a two-run single because there were runners at second and third. There were runners at second and third because Robinson Cano hit a shot off the back of Burnett’s leg that trickled over to shortstop, and Marco Scutaro thought it would be a good idea to barehand it, then make an off-balance throw to first with nothing on it to try to get the runner. Notwithstanding the fact that Scutaro had no chance of retiring Cano, even with a perfect throw, his throw was nowhere near the bag, way up the line, and instead of first and second, the runners each picked up an extra 90 feet. If Scutaro just sticks the ball in his back pocket, as he should have, it’s first and second, that Nady single only scores one (assuming the new space-time continuum thus created allowed the same results in the rest of the inning), and who knows what happens the rest of the way.
Scutaro has had a far, far better year on defense than I ever imagined he might have, especially at shortstop, but there was just no earthly reason to throw the ball right there.
From that point on, Burnett was in shutdown mode (and not the Derek Bell kind). He took it through eight, allowing only two hits the rest of the way, and retired 13 of the last 14 Yankees he faced, eight of those by the strikeout.
He came back out for the 9th, having thrown 117 pitches, and I thought Cito Gaston was going to let him go one more, since he’s not pitching again this season (and likely never again for the Blue Jays), but Cito only let him warm up as a classy gesture in order to allow Burnett to soak in the crowd’s appreciation upon his removal. A.J. left the field to a standing ovation, and waved several times to the audience. As he hugged his teammates in the dugout (he’s a big hugger, don’cha know), the crowd started to chant “A.J., A.J.” and he came out for a curtain call.
After the game, he said all the right things about how emotional a moment it was, how much he loves his teammates and the city, and how he thought the fans appreciated how much he’s grown in his three years here. He seemed genuine, and I’m sure he was. He said that he hasn’t even thought about his contract and whether to opt out after the season, which was also the right thing to say, if not pretty far-fetched.
All that said, there’s no chance that Burnett pitches the next two seasons in Toronto at $12 million per (unless it’s followed by a couple of seasons at about $25 million per).
So what’s left? Getting Roy Halladay his 20th win against possible future teammate Carl Pavano. If the Jays win tomorrow night, they’ll close out the home schedule having gone 47-34 in front of the Rogers Centre faithful, and that’ll be 146 home wins over the past three seasons.
Tonight was the finale of Wednesdays with J.P. for the season, and here it is, for your listening pleasure:
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Remember, today and every day in the month of September, please vote for Tom Cheek and ONLY for Tom Cheek to be on the ballot for the Ford C. Frick Award to gain entry into the broadcasters’ wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. It’ll make more of an impact on the voters if Tom alone gets the overwhelming majority of the votes. Just click on this link:
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It’s a bit of a pain to fill out all the info, but it only takes two minutes at the most, and Tom Cheek was certainly worth your time. Thank you.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Any chance Philly would give up Jimmy Rollins in the offseason in a package deal?
He’s a leadoff hitter, a sparkplug with some pop and a consistent threat on the basepaths.
MW: Rollins is signed to a very good contract and hasn’t turned 30 yet, so I don’t think the Phillies would deal him unless they were overwhelmed. That said, he’s never had an OBP of even .350, and only once has he had an OPS+ over 102. I’m not sure he’s as good as you think he is.
- Ian (not Kinsler)How much are the Jays willing to pay in order to bring the ‘Stache to Toronto and be their DH? I’m guessing no team will offer him more than a two-year contract?
MW: I think the Jays are prioritizing pitching right now. They wouldn’t pony up the dough it’d take to bring Giambi in after the year he’s had.
- Joe N.Let’s say that the Jays do go with young pitching next year like the Twins did this year.
Now according to you, the Twins and Rays were not for real because their young pitching had not been through a full season. I remember you saying on several occasions that guys like Garza, Sonnanstine, Blackburn and Slowey were likely to stumble as the season progressed and thus, their teams would fall back.
So am I right in assuming that you would feel negative about the Jays’ playoff hopes for next year because of their young pitching? Or has the success of the Rays and Twins changed your mind?
MW: Just for clarity’s sake, I have to point out that the Twins are currently three games ahead of the Blue Jays, and went 0-6 against Toronto this year. In case someone might think that Minnesota is having a successful season and the Jays aren’t. I felt very strongly that those pitchers you mention above wouldn’t be able to stay strong through the full season, and I was wrong (I guess, I haven’t really looked at their Septembers, their teams are winning, though). You’re right, though, in assuming I’d feel negative about the Jays’ playoff hopes for next year if they don’t add some starting pitching.
- Jay Money“MW: Rollins is signed to a very good contract and hasn’t turned 30 yet, so I don’t think the Phillies would deal him unless they were overwhelmed. That said, he’s never had an OBP of even .350, and only once has he had an OPS+ over 102. I’m not sure he’s as good as you think he is.”
Jimmy Rollins is the best all around SS in baseball. The only other person who can make a case for himself is Jose Reyes. And while his OBP might only be .330ish, I’ve always felt SLG for base-stealers sells them short. I’m not saying that a steal should count in SLG, because it shouldn’t – but often a single and a steal is just as good as a double. Those are bases that aren’t “slugged” but are earned. I’ve always thought there should be a Total Bases stat that includes steals.
MW: I think Hanley Ramirez might win an argument with Rollins. Still, you make a good point about Rollins’ basestealing ability. He’s become an extraordinarly successful thief. A lot of his singles and his few walks do turn into doubles.
- LiamAlmost amazing as Pujols season is the season Jamie Moyer is having at 45 in a hitter’s ballpark. He’s one of the best per dollar values in baseball.
He’s a free agent, you wouldn’t have to pay him a long-term deal and the Jays have a strong enough bullpen he can get our of there after 6 or 7. In addition, he is rarely hurt despite his age.
What are your thoughts on adding him in the off-season? Even though he’s 45 he seems less a risk than a Ben Sheets or Carl Pavano.
He would also seem like a good pitching mentor for a young staff.
MW: I’m a big Jamie Moyer fan, on a personal level. If he could be had for a year at a reasonable price, then he could join the group of fliers.
- JasonHey Mike
Whats all the fuss regarding Ricky Romeros resurgence? Since he made this miraculous improvement, he has been promoted to AAA were he sports a whip of 1.50.
With Burnett obviously opting out, and with Marcum on the shelf for 2009, the big concern for next season seems to be the pitching. Tonights loss was the 48th time this season the Jays have scored 2 or less runs. Yes, 48 times. Don’t you think JP be more focused on his anaemic offense if they hope to contend next year?
thanks Mike
MW: The lack of offense won’t matter if they can’t pitch.
- rickMike,
JP’s answer about defensive metrics was really troubling to me.
While there is still quite a bit of work to be done, the methods already developed are quite effective in quantifying the effect of defense on preventing run scoring.
For JP to say that he still prefers going by what he sees seemed very backward to me.
What do you think?
MW: I think there’s still quite a bit of work to be done.
- GregJPThe year began with a lot of optimism and I for one found it to be very exciting. The 11 game winning streak gave me great hope and the way they inched closer to Boston had me hoping that they would pull it off this year, but alas my excitement was short lived. I can’t but help wondering if maybe under pressure that offense can not cope with it. Your thoughts please.
- lastlyMike:
Question:
Why were the Jays playing better in meaningless games when they were still in rather than in meaningless games when they’re truly out of it?
I mean, you’d think the Jays would be hitting .400 over the last 8-10 games since they‘re truly out of it.
Seriously though–this is one of the most enigmatic Blue Jays teams in recent memory … really Jekyll and Hyde stuff (at least insofar as the offense goes). I hope they find their bats tonight–it’d be terrible if Halladay pitches like A.J. did but it’s good enough for win No. 20.
Best Regards
John
- John B.The Jays will finish fourth. I do not think that counts as Minnesota having a good year and the Jays having a good year. The Jays play in a much more competitive division, but it’s also a much more lucrative division. Fourth is not good. Fourth is one above Baltimore who had a losing season. We will finish many games above .500 but given the circumstances that is no big whoop.
I would normally agree that we have to make pitching a priority. Except this year we had one of the best pitching rotations and bullpens in all of baseball and we still are ending up behind the Rays, the Sox and the Yankees. So good pitching didn’t beat good hitting this year. And we don’t have good hitting going forward. Perhaps you can give me your thoughts on the hitting situation. Who do you think will step up next year and help the team win some runs? And if the line-up contains the same players as now, what would be your 1-5 order?
MW: Again – the Blue Jays are three games worse than the first-place Minnesota Twins. It’s impossible to say that the Twins were a success and the Jays a failure merely because of the circumstances of their divisions. I think that the Jays have good hitting going forward. Not great hitting, but good hitting. Next year? I think the best option might be Rios/Rolen/Overbay/Wells/Lind. Followed, I would think, by Hill/Snider/Barajas/Shortstop.
- isabella reyesHi Mike,
That was a very poignant conversation with JP about the relationship between fathers and sons and baseball. It’s so true. One of the things I miss the most about my Dad is that we would always talk about trivial and useless things about baseball and the Jays that were only important us and he was always interested in anything I had to say. Without him, there is no one else I can have those conversations with and I really miss that.
I don’t know what it is about baseball in particular, but I challenge any father and son to watch Field of Dreams together and not get choked up at the end. My Dad and I would be blubbering and my mum had no idea what all the fuss was about!
- Oz RobDo you know if Tim Collins is going to start next year at Dunedin or remain in Lansing? Also will LHP Nathan Starner move up to New Hamshire next year since he’s pitched so well in Lansing and Dunedin?
MW: Dunno.
- Ian (not Kinsler)M-Dub,
Jimmy Rollins,
Hes amazing.
Please stop.
yes his numbers got a bit padded with utley/howard/burrell/Abreu That doesnt matter.
You see, thats what good teams have.
Bats that can pad.
Good teams need Jimmy Rollins.
You’re right though.
The Jays dont.
They arent good.
MW: Good teams need Jimmy Rollins? Last I checked there were plenty of good teams, but only one Jimmy Rollins.
- slobberfaceMike,
I can see why you shy away from making predictions, because someone is always going to remember and throw it back in your face. I’d like to see the list of people who predicted prior to the season that Tampa Bay would be where they are now. All the brightest minds in baseball may have seen some positives and a promising future, but not a division title this year.
But don’t worry, when readers and listeners ask for your opinions, most of us are merely interested in what you think. Personally, I have always believed that most of your opinions are based on research, not just emotions, like most fans.
Keep up the good work.
Dawson
MW: Thanks!
- Dawsonhey Mike;
To bad to see A.j not recieve the win he deserved last night as he pitched a stellar game, Scutaro had an untimley error-why doesn’t cito play johnny mac for the last couple of games along with bautista(sit overbay-hand is sore again and recent hitting slump) as the jays are firmly in forth. Good to see rolen with the hr, hope he heals up for next year, and let’s see what the youngsters can do, hope halladay reaches twenty wins, and vernon starts hitting again, maybe rios has a very outside chance @ 200 hits and vernon @ 20 hrs, hope we trade ryan, overbay and sign ibanez and pavano and put lind on first base, thx for the great blog.
MW: 200 hits for Rios????
- robert.sMike, further to your comments on the Scutaro error:
Again assuming the same space-time continuum, without this error the Rolen HR becomes the winning run, Burnett gets his 19th win, the game never goes to extras, Abreu’s slam doesn’t happen, and the Jays still have a realistic shot at third place.
In hindsight, Scutaro’s brain cramp was huge, arguably as devastating (although perhaps less obviously so) as the infamous Eckstein error “way back when”!
I know physical errors happen, but I hate it when a mental error costs a game — and this one was much more mental than physical, IMO.
Also, in respect to Jesse Carlson’s outing, I think the key at-bat was when he “struck out” Moeller, and (again) didn’t get the call! Without this walk, Gardner is hitting away (with his barely .200 average), and the whole inning sets up differently. Sure Abreu might have still come up with runners on, and hit it out, but the chances are a lot less. What’s with these umps lately that won’t call the knee-high strike??? (Refer the pitch chart link shown in yesterday’s post #39)
MW: You’re right, Scutaro’s error was far more mental than physical. I’ve stopped trying to figure out the strike zones of a lot of umpires. I don’t understand what happened to the uniform zone they allegedly adapted a few years back.
- NormMike, I will always agree with you on the fact that A.J Burnett is and always will be a .500 pither. It seems to me that every time a player is able to opt out of his current contract and sign with another team for more money they turn their game up and show what they are capable of (Barry Zito). Burnett was very very good this year and could have got 20+ wins if the offence had done their job. I know that it’s just a business and this past season for Burnett was a glorified job interview but why couldn’t he perfom like that over his entire contract? Or just the past two seasons really… I am glad that the Jays won’t be able to sign him, well I hope they don’t because A.J will be A.J and be back to his old .500 self next year. If I were the Jays then I would load his “new” contract with so many incentives that he would have to pitch well to get his money. Let him walk, injuries are injuries, but work ethic is what counts for me. Look at how Zito has bombed in San Fran. All-Star caliber pitcher turned bust in just two years. Burnet will be his old self next year. Mark my words.
MW: I don’t think anyone has complained about Zito’s work ethic. And you do realize that you’re NOT agreeing with me if you think that A.J. Burnett is and always will be a .500 pitcher, right?
- Pete GrueningAfter taking in a lot of Jays games down at the Dome,with the last two being Boston & New York, I have come to a couple of conclusions.
First off Lyle Overbay struts around like he owns the joint, yet makes bonehead plays on defence, twice in those games has had the chance to bring in a couple of runs, yet swings his bat like its BP, trade him.
Scutaro would be the next one to go, has this guy had a labotomy that we’re not aware of? Can’t hit, screwup on defence, brutal to watch.
The way these guys have played starting with their trip into Boston, I don’t blame A.J. for bolting, no matter how muh the Jays throw at him.
One last guy to go for sure, J.P, what have you done for us?
MW: Not even worthy of a response.
- don trowellCito is indeed one classy guy.
Mike, what’s the deal with Zauny? I was happy to see him join Inglett as the only Jays who are old timey enough sport stirrups with their uniform.
What, he just felt like trying it out for a few weeks and decided it didn’t look good?
What the hell mike? Please get to the bottom of this.
MW: Sorry. Inglett doesn’t wear stirrups, by the way. He just wears his socks high.
- diegoMike, please stop saying Pavano will be a future Jay. He is horrible and we will see just how horrible tonight. Has anyone in the Jays front office indicated that they are interested in Pavano? I hope not.
MW: He was pretty awful tonight. I have never said Pavano WILL be a future Jay.
- KenMike, Were you surprised that Gaston stayed with Carlson as long as he did last night? He’s been a wonderful surprise all season but it certainly seemed early on that he wasn’t sharp last night and nothing about the first few batters in the tenth modified that impression. Ryan is (presumably) the guy you want to pitch in the most crucial situations; it’s a shame to let the game get out of reach with him on the bench.
Mark Golden
MW: Without Downs, I’m not surprised that Cito tried to squeeze a second inning out of Carlson. Ryan would have pitched the 11th – he hasn’t come in with runners on base all season, not sure you’d want to start that up now.
- Mark GoldenMike
It seems to me that AJ is really comfortable pitching here under Cito.If the Jays offer a comptitive extension,hopefully he doesn’t get overwhelmed by the huge dollars that other teams may throw out there just to land him and forget about the success and comfort level he has enjoyed here.AJ at times seemed to be his own worst enemy and I’ve noticed that has changed this season.Although the Jays have some good young arms ready to step up,you need Doc and a steady #2 to make a serious playoff run next year.If he leaves,I think Derek Lowe would be a good second choice.
As for the offense,I wrote before about Ordonez from Detroit but I see he is making about $18mill/season.Probably out of the Jays price range unless the Tigers were willing to eat some salary.I would still like to see Manny come over on a strong base salary loaded with incentives as those incentives would keep Manny interested.A strong threat in the middle of the lineup would change the way pitchers throw to
Wells,Rolen,and Lind/Snider thus making them better.
MW: The chances of Manny signing an incentive-laden contract are not significantly above zero.
- TerryMike,
Just remember a couple of short years back when Vernon was a free agent and it was a foregone conclusion in this town that he’d sign elsewhere…Guess what? He’s still a Jay…that says a lot about Rogers [and JP too]…..don’t underestimate this ownership, stranger things have happened!!
MW: Wells was never a free agent.
- BernardOkay Mike, ive been thinking about this for a couple of days, so tell me what you think.
First, the Jays trade Rolen, Cecil and Wolfe to the Brewers for Prince Fielder. Maybe add another name (Frasor) in it, but only if necessary. The Brewers need starting pitching more than they need bats. This trade sends two potential starters, if wolfe can be lengthened out, and a glove at third.
Next, package Lind and Overbay together to try and land a number two pitcher with a couple years left on his contract. He can be paid with Rolen money.
Last, throw a pile of money at Ibanez for a two year deal.
This scenario relieves us of two injury-hampered veterans, as well as only costing us extra money in the Ibanez deal. I think Lind has high trade market value, so the arm that comes back from dealing him may very well be a good one. As of right now, Lind is the odd man out in the outfield, so its a good idea to trade him. Lastly, if you think Cecil is a a high price to pay for Fielder (i dont) then think about this. In 2011, Fielder’s contract will be expiring. Coincedentally, he will also be having a very good season. I would say a career season, but 50 homers is hard to top. His trade value will be very high mid-season, so the Jays will be able to trade him for a couple top prospects to aid them in their post-2011 rebuilding efforts.
However, i think the main thing is to look at heart of the lineup.
3. Rios
4. Fielder
5. Wells
6. Ibanez
Wells will hit better with protection, and Rios will too.
Let me know what you think.
Cheers
MW: I’d like to know how you know that Fielder will be having an excellent season in 2011. Beyond that, though, I don’t think the Brewers would make that trade.
- Dave Jmike,
goin’ down tonite. have to be there for the final game of the yr. with halladay up against the yanks pitchin’ for win no. 20. besides got nothin else to do tonite between 7 to 9…
anyway 2 thoughts i want to convey re: whether the ball club was in fact playing meaningful games or not a week to 2 weeks back when so many were claiming the jays actually weren’t.
first thought. all you have to do is take in the genuine atmosphere, tension, pressure (or lack thereof) of this series vs. the yanks or bosox previous (as i have) compared to the games in the previous homestand or those games in boston to absolutely realize that those were in fact meaningful, pressure filled games that mattered. cause the difference watching them live or even on tv clearly proved that. couldn’t possibly argue other wise pretty sure of that fact..
second thought. is it to say that when colrado & the phillies came back from nowhere in last yr’s pennant races (and for that matter the comebacks that the astros and others compiled in yrs. previous) were all meaningful, season on the line type games as they went on to make the playoffs but…. if they in fact never did amount those numerous successful comebacks, then in hindsight those games never were actually meaningful played in sept. as so many concurred was the case with the jays as their mounted comeback in the end fell short.
can it go both ways like that?
from where i sit that’s without a doubt 20/20 hindsight, monday morning armchair quarterbacking (pick your own phrase) unwarranted cynicism at it’s best.
that’s just the way i look at it i guess, as the end of this season was transpiring
and now that we’ve seen it come to it’s near completion without this ball club not playing anymore ball after sept. 28th.
but what do i know….
thanks again mike…
MW: I don’t think “meaningful game” is a matter of opinion, as so many others seem to. Either a game is meaningful or it isn’t. If a team is in a race, it’s playing meaningful games. If a team actually controls its own destiny, as the Jays did when they went into Boston two weeks ago, there can be no rational belief that its games aren’t meaningful.
- darrell bishopThere is one bat that I would like to see in the Blue Jays lineup next year. I really like Jack Cust from Oakland and I think he would be a great fit in a Blue Jays uniform next year.
Jack Cust this season has batted .231 alongside with 32 HR’s and 75 RBI’s with a .374 OBP and a .476 SLG. Cust walks at an alarming rate and also strikeout’s at an alarming rate as well. If he could get his average up to around .250 to .260, you could expect a .400 OBP.
What do you think the Jays would have to trade to acquire Jack Cust? Also, do you think he would be a good fit in the Jays lineup?
Thanks Mike! I just want to say your doing a fantastic job with your show and I listen to it all the time. Keep up the great work.
MW: Thanks. I think that the A’s would want quite a bit for Cust, far more than the Jays would be willing to give up. Anyone could have had him for nothing a couple of years ago, though.
- SilvioSo much for the Cito affect.
Every team when a change in coaches is made goes on a short spurt. The Maple Leafs were reknowned for that in the 80′s. But then reality sets back in, and the team sinks to their old ways. Can Gaston turn the momentum around next year? Or was his success the typical new coach honeymoon period syndrome? Hopefully for Ricarddi and Godfrey, if they’re still around, the honeymoon continues. If not, both will be on the unemployment line.
MW: OK, so the first 71 games after Cito took over were the honeymoon period, and the last 13 have been the real thing? Just making sure I’ve got you.
- Rick GRaceMike,
Any chance that the Jays consider looking at retooling Joe Inglett for the SS hole? Inglett’s been a pretty good glove in the field, and suits the lead-off spot very well. Considering his current versitility, any chance they’d try experimenting with him in that position in Spring Training, maybe to see about getting his bat in everyday?
MW: Nope.
- Bryant TelferHey Mike, I have a business proposition for you.
As you are well aware through all the bloggage and phone calls on Jays Talk, you have many supporters.
I thought up an idea to help the Jays Care Foundation for next season. What do you think about an 8×10 photo of yourself, Jerry and Allan signed by the three of you? Sell the picture for $20.00 and the proceeds go to the Jays Care Foundation. I am sure the Jays could find somebody to cover cost for development of the photos or get them for cheap/cost. If there were a cost, it would just cut back on the amount of money donated to the Foundation.
You could set up a link on each blog next season that would allow you to sign up and pay for the photo via credit card/mailing address etc. I think there would be a lot of support for this as the three of you have many, many fans. How often would the fans have the opportunity to get all three of you to sign a picture?
Please let me know what you think. If we sell 100 of these (very possible), the Jays Foundation makes $2000. Imagine the possibilities over a 162 game season. You could even plug the fan 590 by taking a picture in the booth. Thanks for your time Mike and I think this would be easy to do, I hope you support it.
Jamie
MW: Sounds good to me, but I can’t speak for Jerry and Alan. And I can’t imagine why anyone would want a picture of me.
- Jamie/WindsorAssuming Burnett is not back next year the short list of FA starters within the Jays’ price range looks something like this:
1) D. Lowe
2) J. Garland
3) Oliver Perez
4) Pedro
5) Ryan Dempster
I’m sure I’ve missed a few but looking at this list the one name that interests me the most is Oliver Perez. Yes I said it, Oliver Perez. He has great stuff and is a good lefty fit in the middle of all those righties in the Jays’ rotation. He has also been a Yankee killer over the past two seasons in interleague play. I understand he has control issues but why not take a shot at him coupled with a more dependable arm like Derek Lowe or Dempster provided of course D. Lowe takes his ADHD meds :)
John Garland scares the heck out of me and I’m afraid his smoke and mirrors type pitching will be figured out by the AL east. I have visions of him getting killed on a regular basis by the Yankees and Sox.
What do you think Mike?
MW: I don’t think that Perez will be in the Jays’ price range – he’s too young, throws too hard and is left-handed. You missed a couple, guys like Pavano and Freddy Garcia.
- Brad WilsonIf one looks at the Jay situation for next year honestly, they at best have a chance for a wildcard if everything in the world goes right. Sign a Lowe and Pavano or Martinez, Jansen or Purcey comes though etc and they move a year closer to Halladay taking a powder. If they replaced JP so there was no short term incentive to not look long term, would it not make the most sense to trade Halladay for a Harren like package and Wells etc so that in 2010 you hopefully have a healthy Marcum, McGowan, Litch, Jansen, Purcey a couple good prospects from Halladay and Wells trades, plus Ceicl etc such that you have 7-8 good young arms and you have a good nucleus of young players like Snider, Lind, Rios etc plus a couple others from Wells and Halladay trades and now you have a young homegrown team that may challenge. If not, Jays are destined to be leafs, come 2nd-4th next two years, Halladay leaves and they are stuck in the mid range.
MW: If you can get the right package back, I’ll trade anybody.
- marky Mark & The Funky BunchSo, Mike … let’s say Jays manage to sign AJ. I’m not asking whether you think the Jays will or not – just for the sake of this question, let’s suppose they manage to. Will you feel a bit more positive about our playoff chances next year?
I understand you don’t feel good about it the way our pitching for 09 looks right now. But with AJ back, how much better would you feel for a successful season (and by that I mean winning the division or wild card)? On a scale from 0-9?
MW: Why does your scale only go to 9? I’d feel a LOT better about the Jays’ chances if they brought Burnett back – assuming he stays healthy, which is rather a large assumption.
- T from NYLooking to next year we face a duanting task. If Boston and New York’s pitching gets even remotely better you are not going to outscore them. Both teams are much better hitting (run scoring )teams. Problem number 1 of which you have no control. Problem number 2 is to compare the Jays with Tampa. Tampa’s starting pitchers went 63 and 43 and their bullpen went 33 and 19. Toronto’s Starters were 67 and 53 and their bullpen was 16 and 22. Cleary the starting pitching has to get deeper and the bullpen must be better(Hard to believe for a team who had either the best or close to the very best ERA in baseball). On the offensive side the two teams were similar except in two categories HR’s and SB’s The Jays hit 52 fewer HR’s and stole 61 fewer bases. Add to this the fact that the Jays hit into 38 more double plays than the Rays . What does this tell me? First it tells me the Rays are an extremely athletic team(something that gets overlooked). The Jays either have to find a huge amount of extra power and /or they must start improving their team speed especially in the first two spots in their order. And oh by the way their is more bad news looking at this objectively, The Rays are a very young team especially their pitching which means they are probably going to get better. All in all this is very ominous.
MW: The Rays success this year is partly attributable to their good young starting pitching, but more attributable to their lights-out bullpen that has had guys like Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and J.P. Howell have the seasons of their lives. I doubt we’ll see the same out of them next year, or out of hitters like Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd and Willy Aybar, among others. That said, looking at win-loss record as a way of evaluating a pitching staff is misguided. The Jays’ bullpen wasn’t 10 games worse than Tampa’s because of a failing in the Jays’ pen, it’s because the offense didn’t support it at all.
- mike glattHey Mike,
You suggested Overbay is as good or better than Hinske.
Overbay 533 AB, 47 extra-base hits, 14 HR, .775 OPS
Hinske, 370 AB, 41 extra-base hits, 19 HR, .796 OPS
Give Hinske the same 530 ABs as Overbay and Hinske has 59 extra-base hits, 27 HR this season.
In fact, in Hinske’s last 550 real ABs, he has 33 doubles, 25 homers.
I’d say Hinske is about 20 per cent more productive than Overbay when it comes to home runs and extra-base hits this season and over the last 550 at-bats. And that is what J.P.’s punchless lineup needs.
Hinske was a building block of Ricciardi’s “five-year plan” when J.P. took over in 2002. In fact, Hinske made the playoffs within five years in the AL East and he’ll now play in his third straight October. All he had to do was get away from J.P. Ricciardi.
Like I said, good thing J.P. went and acquired Overbay. Big improvement. Probably about the 24th or 25th most productive first baseman in baseball.
MW: You’re hilarious. Look at Eric Hinske in 2006 and 2007, please.
- Ken PaganA.J. told the media he hasn’t thought about his contract or whether to opt out?
Hmmmm.
Three months ago, he said, “Who would not want to play for the Cubs, bottom line?”
Seems the Cubs are becoming a destination for former Jays eager to move to a winner after poor treatment from J.P. Ricciardi.
There was no way Ted Lilly was re-signing with the Jays after the 2006 tunnel scrap with Ricciardi’s buddy, Gibbons.
Reed Johnson is as scrappy and popular as ever, hitting .308, but J.P. opted to go for Shannon Stewart.
MW: Yep. The Cubs will win the World Series because of the contributions of former Blue Jays. If only the Jays had kept Lilly and Reed.
- Ken PaganIs Bryan Denbo(sp) back? The way these guys have hit or better yet not hit in the last couple of games, they have resorted back to old habits. The watched strike threes two nights ago gave me a flashback that I didn’t want. I really hope Roy gets his 20th win tonight. I wish a ball player could maybe write a book about the products that can be bought with 25 million dollars that 12 million just can’t buy. I get pretty sick of comments like the one from your “captain” that indicate A.J. needs to think about his family when looking for more money. I know I’m just jealous but I just don’t get it. Did I read that you where wrong about something Mike? That must have been hard to admit to. While you’re at it, would you like to admit it to the 90% of us that wanted to keep Reed instead of Stewart and Mencherson? I’m just kidding with you Mike, I have to tell you that I am already feeling the void that will be the end of the season for The Jays and for your show.
MW: Mencherson? He wasn’t a factor in the Reed thing, but I’m sure you know that. It’s Gary Denbo, by the way.
- Dan from ElmvaleAll things being equal, who would you rather have, A.J. Burnett or Ryan Dempster?
MW: Burnett, easily.
- Joe N.Thanks for the response. Here are the September numbers for Slowey, Blackburn, Sonnanstine and Garza in September:
Slowey: 1-3, 4.70 ERA, 23 IP, 30 H, 5 BB, 14 SO
Blackburn: 2-2, 6.75 ERA, 24 IP, 34 H, 6 BB, 13 SO
Sonnanstine: 0-2, 2.10 ERA, 25.2 IP, 19 H, 5 BB, 19 SO
Garza: 0-2, 4.57 ERA, 21.2 IP, 22 H, 7 BB, 15 SO
So 3 of the 4 have regressed. Their teams however, haven’t.
- Jay MoneyMike, of the FA SP’s available after this season, who do you believe the Jays will target? If you were the GM, who would you target?
MW: Asked and answered, many times.
- JasonMW: The fact that you think losing Izturis and Lopez were big mistakes sheds serious doubts on your credibility. You do realize, as well, that Delgado leaving had nothing to do with Ricciardi, right?
Do not misquote me. I did not say “big” mistakes.
Izturis had some good years at LA, and since Ricciardi has yet to produce a working middle infield he should have left well alone (and remember Izturis, Lopez and Hudson were all switch hitters).
Also correct me if I’m wrong but I am sure Ricciardi was GM when Delgado left.
MW: Yes, he was, but he didn’t have enough money to make Delgado a reasonable offer. Izturis had one season with an OBP over .302 in L.A.
- Cito Manstop taking away my freedom of speech right let me keep all my comments on even my trades that i listed
MW: The fact that you flamed me with about a dozen straight insulting, obscene comments means you’ll never have another one posted here after this. You’re free to spout your idiocy anywhere else that you like, but not here. Freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom of consequences from that speech.
- danielHi Mike,
Just wondering if you happened to hear the chants of each individual player coming from the outfield seats last night ? I thought that was pretty neat and i’m sure they had influence from the New York crowd at Yankee Stadium but i’d like the Toronto crowd to catch on to that next year. Stuff like that adds life to the ballpark. Unfortunately I heard a fan yell out: they must sell a lot more beer over there. Made me roll my eyes.
MW: I thought it was pretty neat, too, but I thought the fans gave up too soon.
- DilsonLooking at some of the baseball blogs out there, there is a consensus that Toronto will lose both Burnett and Halladay (by trade) and go with young pitching and call it rebuilding if they have a bad year in 2009.
Some of the more interesting rumours out there:
With Mil: Fielder for Halladay
With Tex: Young and Padilla for Downs and Mcgowan
With NYM: Ryan Romero, and Mcdonald for Reyes
Any likelihood in the above ?
Which trade would most likely to happen ?
MW: None.
- carlMike, are you saying the jays might consider signing Pavano? Just a question.
MW: I would hope so, if they can get him for next-to-nothing.
- gregI read a lot of fans slamming Rance Mulliniks broadcasting of the Jays’televised games. I think he’s very astute, having played the game and more often than not,calls the next pitch bang on. And when teamed with Jesse Barfield, they talk of good ol’times which should please Jay fans, not anger them. Sometimes I wonder if Blue Jay fans are afraid they might learn something the way Rance gets slammed……Chris
MW: I have been surprised by the amount of venom that’s been directed towards Rance lately. Having never actually heard him do a game, I have no opinion of his work.
- chrisHey Mike
Great game last night even with a loss.. It was good that AJ saw the true Jay fans before he left the Jays uniform.. Its sad to see it had to happen late but it was good to see as a fan..
Couple quick questions..
How do you feel about Cito only getting 2 years? Since we might be in trouble in the pitching area next year, is there a pitcher or pitchers out there we should look at and how much should we really spend since we still need bats?
MW: I don’t have a problem with Cito getting only two years, that way his contract runs out when the general manager’s does. I’ve mentioned the pitchers they should be chasing a few times now.
- EddieHad a fantastic time with my family at the ballpark last night. Great seats, great game, great food and a great analyst in Uncle Sidney sitting right beside me.
Here’s the funny part, Mike. In all his years as a Jays fan, Uncle Sidney had never seen a grand slam Live in the stadium. At the bottom of 9th he said it’d be great if someone hits a grand slam and 10 minutes later his wish came true. Would have been better if a Blue Jay had hit it but I am glad the birthday boy got his wish.
Finally, hats off to Toronto fans. They know their baseball. What a tremendous standing O for A.J! Being a huge A.J fan, I was almost in tears. All in all, it was a day I’ll never forget. A meaningless september game can be fun too!
- Beburgwho do u think is the better pitcher and who could the jays sign for the lowest amount
Ryan Dempster vs A.J. Burnett
MW: Burnett. Dempster.
- JazzHave you noticed how desperate New York is to finish ahead of Toronto for 3rd place. They actually sat most of their starters and started the “B” team against the Jays. They seem to realize that what they do in September since missing the playoffs doesn’t mean anything towards next year and third place doesn’t mean a thing to them. If the Jays ask nicely, the Yankees might even let them say they finished in 3rd to make them feel better.
- Peter B.wow Cano has really changed his stance, it’s not open at all anymore.
- BrendanHi Mike,
1) How do baseball players get paid ? Is it one lump sum for the year, weekly, monthly ?
2) Do you know if any of the Jays read and answer their own fan mail ?
Thank you for all your work on the blog this season. Looking forward to the next !
MW: 1 – 1st and 15th of every month, I believe. 2 – I assume some do.
- KimJeff Blair mentioned that if the Blue Jays don’t keep A.J Burnett , it may be time to blow the whole thing up starting with Halladay. I’m very surprised that the Blue Jays might be willing to deal Roy Halladay, as Halladay is if not the best pitcher in baseball, he certainly is the second best behind Johan Santana.
MW: I don’t think the Jays will be looking at trading Halladay in the off-season unless they’re absolutely blown away.
- andrewSomething interesting for you to read, Mike.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ajj.U0z52Rz5GhGTasXhzqqFCLcF?slug=txbaseballnotes&prov=st&type=lgns
Near the bottom, “Best Team not to make the playoffs”.
MW: Without question. You could argue that four of the five best teams in baseball are in the A.L. East.
- James from MississaugaHi mike
With the jay’s signing with the las vegas 51 will we lose all of our prospects who were on the cheifs. or will they be the same players on las vegas 51
MW: The players are under contract with the Blue Jays, not the minor-league teams.
- Jason from WaterlooThat’s good. I hope the Jays miss those two guys too :)
MW: Huh?
- Brad WilsonYou can only wonder, “what if” the Jays provided enough offense to give Halladay the Major league lead in wins. He should’ve only had about 2/3 of his losses. Maybe less. That’s almost 4 more wins.
MW: Yeah.
- gregTo all those J.P. haters out there I would like to take a few moments to defend J.P. Yes that’s right, I’m defending him. I would like to see the Jays’ have a season free of major injuries and inexplicable hitting slumps before we throw J.P. to the wolves. For those who thinks he’s just there collecting a paycheck your sorely mistaken. From what I understand the guy is super competive and there’s nothing more he’d rather do than “stick it” to the mighty Yankees and especially the Sox for overlooking him and hiring Theo. I think firing Gibbons and hiring Cito will probably go a long ways in making sure he’s around for a while yet….
- Brad WThose two guys being Pavano and Garcia from a previous response to my post….
- Brad WHey mike what are the chances of trading BJ Ryan, Alex Rios and either a pitching prospect or Lyle overbay for Tim Lincecum and/or MAtt Cain
MW: Lincecum, no. Cain, maybe, but I don’t think the Giants want Ryan.
- Justin JaysI know Mencherson wasn’t part of the Reed thing, but we had to watch them (him) far too often while we only got to see Reed once or twice a week on the highlight reels. That’s what I meant.
MW: Yep.
- Dan from Elmvalewhat would you think of the jays signing Manny Ramirez.
MW: It’d be fine by me.
- Justin JaysI’m not hilarious, J.P. Ricciardi is.
He’s the one with egg on his face for acquiring Lyle Overbay and making him a cornerstone of the lineup.
The Rays’ GM, Andrew Friedman, doesn’t have egg on his face for acquiring Hinske to be 20 per cent more productive than Overba THIS SEASON.
I just looked at Hinske in 2006 and 2007 and he was in the playoffs both years.
MW: Uh-huh. If you’re using that at a reason to have had Hinske over Overbay those years than I’m not going to bother anymore.
- Ken PaganOops. Hinske wasn’t in the playoffs in 2006 anyway, but whatever.
Overbay is the eighth best first baseman in the American League East.
MW: It’s simply not true. You can argue it as long as you want, but it’s simply not true. You’re entitled to believe that you’d rather have had Eric Hinske here playing first for the last four years, but I doubt you’ll convince anyone else that you’re right.
- Ken PaganHere is what’s true:
If the American League East of 2008 was putting an all-star team together, and they’re playing in a National League park with no designated hitter, then this would be the manager’s depth chart at first base:
Ortiz
Youkilis
Huff
Pena
Giambi
Millar
Hinske
Overbay
MW: Hinske over Overbay is VERY debatable, because the difference in offense between them isn’t that great, and gloves count. I don’t think that Millar and his OPS+ of 91 would get the nod over Lyle, either. And Huff and Ortiz have played a total of 24 games at first base combined this season, 24 of those by Huff. So, yes, clearly Overbay is the 8th-best first baseman in the division.
- Ken Pagan“MW: I think Hanley Ramirez might win an argument with Rollins.
Except that while Hanley has made some strides this year, he’s a pretty poor defensive SS. Heckuva hitter though!
Is that your mom running for the Conservative party in my riding?!
MW: No, it’s not. It’s my father’s wife.
- Liam#13
Why, M-Dub?
why must you be like this?
p.s.
Billingsley’s ERA = 3.17
MW: Because he’s not as good as you think he is. I’m not even going to touch the “good teams have bats (like Howard/Utley/Burrell) that can pad”/”good teams need Jimmy Rollins” argument.
- slobberfacecomment 64 is making me want to throw-up last nights hotdogs.
Aubrey Huff and Kevin Millar are freaking crap. I dont give a crap what the numbers say. I cant wait to laugh at the idiot who drafts Huff next year. Also. Hinske is not better than Lyle.
Have to go throw up now.
MW: I hope everything comes out OK.
- slobberfaceRe: Post #23
Ok, I stand corrected, when it was a foregone conclusion that Vernon Wells would sign elsewhere, most people thought he would leave. I guess there’s something to be said for signing in a mediocre sports town (with very little appreciation for baseball) in exchange for a lot of money. Maybe AJ will be content pitching in a “boring” baseball city as opposed to going to New York or Boston. Can Rogers pull the rabbit out of the hat and repeat the same for AJ?
MW: Could be, but again, it’s not the same situation.
- BernardHey Mike,
The more I think about it, the more that Pavano is a logical option for the Jays. Of course, there are a few other options that would also work, but I’d have no problem with us acquiring Pavano, providing the price was right.
That leads me to my question, what is the right price for Pavano? I have no problem with J.P’s low risk, medium reward policy (Ohka, Thompson. It didn’t work well with those two, but we didn’t really lose anything in the process. So what would be a ‘good’ Pavano signing? I can’t assume the Jays would want to give him more than one year (especially with the Romeros and Cecil in the waiting for 2010 and the return of Marcum), and I’d also assume that it might be incentive laden. Am I on the right track here?
MW: Yeah. A good Pavano signing, in my mind, is a one-year deal that may include a cheap club option for a second. A base of no more than $1.5 million, with several incentive-based bonuses, and that option should be for about $4 million or so.
- BradleyTO THE GUY WHO KEEPS PROMOTING ERIC HINSKE. HE’S TERRIBLE. HE’S BEEN TERRIBLE FOR A LONG WHILE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS YEAR. I WOULD MUCH SOONER HAVE LYLE OVERPAY WHOOPS I MEAN OVERBAY :) HINSKE PROBABLY WON’T EVEN HAVE AN EVERDAY JOB NEXT YEAR. I DON’T THINK OVERBAY IS THE CAUSE OF THE JAYS’PROBLEMS. DH AND STARTING PITCHING SHOULD BE THEIR MAJOR CONCERN IN THE OFF SEASON.
MW: No need to yell. And Hinske doesn’t have an everyday job this year, either.
- Brad WSo I guess you were wrong about those Tampa Bay Non-Devil Rays 3 months ago? Don’t worry, I’m a nice guy, and everyone makes mistakes and if tampa was last everyone would be quiet about your failed prediction
Anyway,
Could the Jays bump Janssen and Wolfe to the rotation and spend their money on the bats and shortstop?
Maybe with that they could trade Lind and x for Ordonez and get Giambi/Manny Ramirez.
How do you think about that?
MW: If the Rays were last the prediction wouldn’t have failed. The Jays seem to have decided they like Wolfe more out of the bullpen, and Janssen could be a starter, but not one who could be counted on, given the injury from which he’s recovering. If Ordonez is legitimately availablem I would trade Lind plus for him, and signing Giambi after that wouldn’t be a bad move, but the pitching has to come from somewhere.
- TheSunkenZealotwhat would you think of the jays signing Manny Ramirez.
MW: It would be fine with me.
- Justin JaysMike, lets talk about AJ or more specifically his market value as I believe you say he will command 5yr 80m/16m per. I include Halladay as a hierarchial comparison, Garland as the next best option, and Silva as an example of inflation (ie. Garland > Silva therefore 10m in 2005 => 12m in 2007).
First lets look at AJ Burnett.
CAREER
ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.28, OBA .317, AVG .235, SLG .364
THIS YEAR
ERA 4.07, WHIP 1.34, OBA .322, AVG .249, SLG .388
Carlos Zambrano, 18m per signed in 2007.
CAREER
ERA 3.48, WHIP 1.29, OBA .319, AVG .228, SLG .352
THIS YEAR
ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.29, OBA .319, AVG .241, SLG .370
Roy Halladay, 14m per signed in 2006.
CAREER
ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.21, OBA .301, SLG .365, AVG .255
THIS YEAR
ERA 2.78, WHIP 1.05, OBA .276, SLG .345, AVG .237
Carlos Silva, 12m per signed in 2007.
CAREER
ERA 4.61, WHIP 1.40, OBA .338,
SLG .465, AVG .304
THIS YEAR
ERA 6.46, WHIP 1.60, OBA .363,
SLG .505, AVG .331
Jon Garland, 10m per signed in 2005.
CAREER
ERA 4.47, WHIP 1.38, OBA .333, SLG .436, AVG .274
THIS YEAR
ERA 4.90, WHIP 1.51, OBA .355, SLG .464, AVG .303
Synopsis:
In my opinion when you consider all the aspects of the example contracts such as date signed, FA status, age, potential, FA crop, competition etc, etc, etc… Burnett is worth 16-17m per.
Essentially, this breaks down to two reasons.
1. Sign him so the Yankees can’t. Even if you think AJ is only worth 13/14m per. – it is absolutely worth the extra 2 or 3m to make certain the Yankees can do no better than adding Sabathia and the next best pitcher availible beyond burnett. It’s a safe bet if the yankees rotation features Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Wang, and Joe Schmo for the next 3 years the Jays current core will miss their window of opportunity.
2. our target season is 2010, if you look at the availible pitchers from now to that point – AJ is absolutely the best fit. If Burnett had signed with St Louis 3 years ago and was opting out from their deal, he would still be the pitcher I would be taking a long and hard look at signing as our #2.
There are many, many, many factors and ” if’s ” behind most of my points. But If you want a better than unlikely shot at a playoff birth in 2010 you have to resign Burnett.
MW: Playoff berth, but your points are well-made. Still, I can’t ignore the whole “never been healthy outside a contract year”. When people talk about Burnett now, they talk about him as though there’s no concern about his ability to make 30 starts.
- ChrisMike, when you are disparaging Burnett’s medical history, are you in fact casting aspersions at the Jays’ medical staff?
Your repeated comments that he “has only been healthy in contract years” implies that he is able to control the state of his own health through “strength of will” (or something similar).
I contend that the same medical staff that gets a pass from you on Scott Rolen’s shoulder (“they declared him healthy at the time the trade was made”) is the group that agreed that AJ had injuries sufficient to place him on the DL 4 times in his first two seasons with the Jays.
You seem to be saying that because he has been healthy this year (Yes, a contract year), that there was something “phony” about some or all of the injuries early in his career.
By implication, you are saying that the Jays’ medical staff “blew it” by not forcing AJ to pitch, and instead allowing him to be DL’d.
In fact, I believe the Jays have a very competent medical staff, and that AJ’s injuries in his first two years were in fact “real”.
The fact that Rolen again had problems with his shoulder this year, and that AJ stayed healthy this year, are equally “coincidental” — just part of “that’s why they call it baseball”.
I for one am completely satisfied to allow JP to try to resign AJ, assuming that he will take into full account whatever AJ’s current and expected medical situation will be — just as we accepted without equivocation the medical recommendations concerning Rolen.
From my end, I would say that ONE healthy year from AJ (even if it’s a “contract year”) is a better base to build from than the very checkered medical history of Ben Sheets (who, I might point out, is ALSO in a contract/FA year, and was NOT healthy)!
MW: I’m not casting aspersion at the Jays’ medical staff, I don’t think. The Cards doctors also gave Rolen a clean bill of health this winter, and the docs who do that sort of stuff aren’t the same ones who deal with these guys on a day-to-day basis. As for A.J. and his health, nobody is going to force a player to play when he doesn’t feel right, and I guess what I’m saying is that it appears that when there’s a contract on the line, Burnett seems more willing to pitch through pain and soreness than he otherwise is.
- NormWhile it may be true that “nobody is going to force a player to play when he doesn’t feel right…”, that is not quite the same as “approving” (or whatever the proper term is) a stay on the DL.
It seems pretty clear that in order to miss at least three starts, there must be something more than “not feeling right”, or “pain that he could pitch through”.
One start or even two might fall into the area of “psychosomaticality”, but I’m sure that anything beyond that would be cause for additional club discipline of some kind, which would eventually come out into the “public domain” — but aside from a rather oblique comment from Ricciardi at one point last year, I don’t recall any such suggestion.
In my opinion it’s unfair to criticize AJ’s health situation unless you have medical evidence that there was in fact nothing wrong except “in his head”.
You accept other injury situations at “face value” — why is it different for AJ simply because he has apparently had more than his share of bad luck.
And by the way, you didn’t address my point concerning AJ vs Sheets, whom you have recommended going after with little or no regard to his medical history.
MW: I have certainly not recommended going after Sheets with little or no regard to his medical history. I suggested that I believed the Jays would, not that I thought they should. I don’t follow your accusation that I’m not accepting A.J.’s prior injuries at face value; all I’ve said was that I think that in a contract year, he may be more willing to pitch through a little bit of pain. That doesn’t mean the pain’s not there.
- Norm