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11:55 PM Eastern
Not that a one-run loss to the Red Sox that drops your tragic number to one isn’t bad, but that was hardly the Jays’ biggest loss of the night. Before the game, a sullen Shaun Marcum told the assemblage that he was going under the knife for ligament replacement surgery in his right elbow. The dreaded Tommy John that we speculated about last night. Marcum was near tears as he answered our questions, and his voice cracked when he mentioned the fact that he wouldn’t be”one of the guys” next season (Jordan Bastian’s question. Damn Bastian made Marcum cry!). He was firm, though, in his determination to be back even stronger in 2010, and hoped he’d be part of a World Series team. Could be – that 2010 team has a chance to be very, very good. 2009 is a whole ‘nother story, though.
A team that showed so much promise with its end-of-season run is now in utter disarray. The upshot may well be that the Jays return the exact same offense next season, with the addition of Aaron Hill, and take a good, hard look at the pitching that’s available on the free-agent and trade market.
It’s going to be difficult to sign a starter to a big-money, long-term deal, because (assuming the Jays resign Roy Halladay, which is their intent) they’ll have about $60 million gobbled up by four players in 2011, with players like Marcum, McGowan, League, Accardo, Janssen and Lind well into arbitration. Also, there’s really not a starter out there beyond C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to whom to give a long-term, big-money deal. Guys like Derek Lowe, Jon Garland and Paul Byrd could all be reasonable one-year stop-gaps, but will any of them take a one-year, $8 million deal, or even a two-year, $14 million dollar contract? The Jays may well wind up waiting on this year’s Kyle Lohse to slip through the cracks.
I think they’re going to need to get aggressive on the trade market, dangling valuable pieces like some of the younger pitching, B.J. Ryan, maybe even Adam Lind in order to see what they can get back. This could be a really fun off-season, because if J.P. Ricciardi wants to be here in 2010, the Jays can’t go 75-87 in 2009. With a rotation of Halladay, Litsch, Purcey, Downs and Davis Romero, with McGowan arriving in May, they just might.
A.J. Burnett isn’t coming back. I’m not sure why so many people seem to believe that now, with Marcum gone for ’09, the Jays need to keep Burnett. One has nothing to do with the other. Burnett is just like any other free agent out there on the market this off-season – the fact that he played here the last three years holds no sway at all. Remember, too, Burnett has only had two healthy seasons in his career – the two in which he’s been pitching for a contract. He may be past that now, but is that a $50 million chance you want to take?
He gave us some fine glimpses of his old self tonight, though, giving up back-to-back rockets to score three runs right after he didn’t get a call. Burnett struck out Kevin Youkilis with two on and two out in the 5th, but first-base ump Jim Reynolds didn’t ring Youkilis up on the swing. The next pitch was lined into centre for an RBI single. Burnett then fell behind Sean Casey 2-0 before Casey smacked a two-run double off the right-field wall. That’s vintage A.J. from the last two years, stuff I had thought he’d matured his way past.
He also, for some reason, has fallen in love with the barehand play on balls hit back to him, much to his detriment. He tried to barehand a Jason Bay comebacker in the second and botched it, when he had all kinds of time to make a safe play with the glove. In the fateful 5th, he thought about barehanding a Jacoby Ellsbury bunt, but instead chose to give way and let the ball go by him to nobody, since Scott Rolen had gone to cover third and Marco Scutaro second, as they should have. He made up for that by picking Ellsbury off first, at least.
Burnett, by the way, mentioned after the game that he wouldn’t risk injury by taking the ball on three days’ rest to start on the season’s last day if he had a shot at 20 wins. I’m not sure that’ll still be true if he beats the Yankees on Wednesday.
I said a few times during the post-game that the Jays have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but I was wrong. I didn’t look at it from both sides. While the Jays are now 8 1/2 games back of the Red Sox with eight games to play, the Sox have nine games left on their schedule, which means that if the Jays win out and the Sox lose out, the Jays could still force a tiebreaker. Those of you who are glass 999,999/1,000,000th full-types can hold onto that, maybe for another few days. I hate when I make those kinds of mistakes on the air, and I apologize profusely.
Here’s tonight’s edition of The JaysTalk, for your listening pleasure:
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Remember, today and every day in the month of September, please vote for Tom Cheek and ONLY for Tom Cheek to be on the ballot for the Ford C. Frick Award to gain entry into the broadcasters’ wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. It’ll make more of an impact on the voters if Tom alone gets the overwhelming majority of the votes. Just click on this link:
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It’s a bit of a pain to fill out all the info, but it only takes two minutes at the most, and Tom Cheek was certainly worth your time. Thank you.
Rational, reasonable comments are always welcome!
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Hey Mike,
All year I’ve been hearing the Jays should rebuild like Tampa (or the Leafs) to develop a winner.
So why not just do it next year with Cecil, Romero, Snider, Arencebia, Campbell, and whoever they got in their future plans.
With lowered expectations, and the pressure off, they might just be this year’s Tampa Bay Rays.
MW: From whom have you been hearing that the Jays should rebuild? Almost all their pieces are under control through 2010 or later. I don’t think it’s a good idea to just take a bunch of kids and throw them to the wolves.
- WillWhy only offer Derek Lowe a one-year deal? He has much better overall numbers than Burnett. If you were going to offer Burnett a long-term deal, why not offer it to Lowe? Lowe never gets injured, throws lots of innings and would be a great number 2 starter.
MW: Lowe wouldn’t be a great # 2 starter. Look at his terrible last two seasons in Boston before he moved to the National League and one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball. Lowe hasn’t been injured, that’s very true, but the reason that Burnett would be offered a long-term deal and Lowe wouldn’t is, simply, their age. Burnett is 31, Lowe is 35.
- Kelly PfeifferAnd you don’t know how great a team the Jays’ will have in 2010?
If young guys like Purcey, McGowan et al, progress as hoped … then maybe, 2010 will be a very good season. But there are so many if’s and buts. Don’t wait another year. Make some trades, sign a couple of tier 2 free-agents.
MW: You never know how great any team will be ever, let alone two years hence. But if Purcey and McGowan continue to develop, along with Janssen, Lind and Snider, then the Jays have a chance to be very, very good.
- Kelly PfeifferHey Mike,
Will it be a long shot for Arencibia to make this team in 09? If not, will the Jays be comfortable with Captain Rod as a starter?
MW: Yes and yes.
- Joe N.The Jays Talk was cut off. Can you repost it with the complete version?
MW: I’ll have to see what the deal is, you’re the only one who has mentioned it.
- BradHey Mike,
I was wondering what you thought of John Maine. He might be an okay 3rd starter for the Jays next year. I’m not sure of his contract status, but he’s only 27. Since the beginning of 2006, he has a 3.93 ERA and averages about 6 IP per start. He has a WHIP of 1.27, .230 BAA, .690 OPS, and he strikes out about 2.1 times as many people as he walks.
His numbers are comparable to A.J.’s, who, since the beginning of ’06 (not including Friday’s game), has a 3.99 ERA, averages almost 6.2 IP per start, has a 1.28 WHIP, .240 BAA, .700 OPS, and strikes out about 2.7 times as many people as he walks.
I’m not trying to compare Maine to Burnett, i’m just attempting to show that he could be a reasonable replacement. I don’t know if the Jays could offer B.J. and one of Lind or Overbay to get him in return (or if a trade like that would even be worth it). I’d like to get your thoughts.
MW: Ryan and Lind would likely get Maine, but that would be a whole lot to give up. Maine will be going to arbitration for the first time this season.
- JustinHey Mike,
1) Returning the exact same offence next season is hardly a positive — first full-season team without a 20-homer guy since 1977, first full-season team without a 90-RBI guy since Willie Upshaw in 1982.
2) I didn’t know Derek Lowe was a free agent. If A.J. is going to get five years and $80 million from someone, I’d say Lowe is a relative bargain at three years, maybe 25-30 million. Lowe is a gamer, proven track record. If J.P. gets Lowe, then good riddance, A.J.
Garland wouldn’t be a bad option, either. At least he’s someone with experience who can go out every fifth day and not get shellacked.
3) As for taking a chance on veteran stop-gaps like Freddy Garcia or Pavano etc . . . J.P. tried that last season by bringing in Tomo Ohka, Victor Zambrano, John Thomson. That didn’t work out too well.
4) I commend you for taking everybody’s sometimes-constructive criticism and taking the time to respond. Your blog is now in my ‘Favorites’ toolbar . . .
Too bad there wasn’t a Jays channel on TV so you could host a talk show and take even more calls from all the knuckleheads out there.
MW: Returning the same offense is FAR from ideal, but it’s the option they may be stuck with, especially if they go out and sign guys like Garland and Lowe. Thomson, Ohka and Zambrano aren’t Pedro Martinez, Freddy Garcia and Carl Pavano. There is a baseball channel coming – see if you can get me a gig!
- Ken PaganRegarding Mike Hampton’s hitting prowess. I know it’s far-fetched and just playing with statistics but:
Last 310 at-bats:
Mike Hampton 15 HR
Vernon Wells 13 HR
Alex Rios 12 HR
Lyle Overbnay 9 HR
Scott Rolen 8 HR
And that is why returning the same offence next season isn’t such a rah-rah thing. In my opinion.
MW: VERY far-fetched. But hey, might as well bring him in, along with Micah Owings.
- Ken PaganThe Barry Zito contract looks like a mistake.
MW: Ya think?
- ChrisHey Mike. So we are already starting to make excuses for the 2009 season, JP’s 8th, because the guy who was sent to triple a making 400,000 is toast. Wow! For a guy who has put so much faith in JP and defended him all year, I think your excuse making this early speaks volumes. After 7 years of JP’s organizational building, this should not be a problem. He has all off season to solve it. You should be the one supporting him, because you have all year. Its the anti JP people who should now be speaking doom and gloom. We who saw the flaws in his thinking. Stewart, Rolen, Eckstein. None of those guys helped the Jays this year. I have no faith that JP can make the right deals. You should have faith, all you do is defend everything he does. Which brings me to rational and reasonable. I didn’t realize that you were an actual Blue Jays fan. I guess I missed that because generally journalists are taught to be impartial. I’m thinking that this may be clouding your judgement, because you know fan is short for fanatic. Perhaps it is yours whose comments are irrational and unreasonable, when criticizing people who think the Jays are going in the wrong direction. Some early advice for JP. Pencil in Snider and Lind, trade Ryan if possible, the Mets come to mind, sign AJ, as I’ve said all year, and pull off a Garza for Young type deal with Rios. Get a top of the order guy and teach this team how to scratch and claw for runs. Keep building the farm system, and hopefully we can be more like the Red Sox. When they were in trouble, they brought up Lowrie Ellsbury and Pedroia, not to mention all the good young pitching they have coming down the pipe. I thought that was what the Jays were going to be doing when I initially heard JP in his first interviews 7 years ago
MW: Sigh. You do realize why you can’t dangle Rios in a Young for Garza type deal, right?
- DaveBM-Dub,
Did you see the Mookie Wilson interview during the top of the 3rd?
Awesome interview. What a guy.
MW: I would have thought you’d know that I can’t listen to the TV broadcast.
- slobberfaceMike,
Not trying to be insulting here, just some constructive criticism. Don’t stop making predictions because thats what baseball talk is all about. Just stop making absolute statements and setting yourself up for failure.
I can see you repeating the same errors in logic you made when talking about TB when you now talk about AJ. Maybe you should start qualifying your insistence that AJ is not returning next year. I think your credibility is at stake.
I distinctly remember sitting by the pool last July and hearing you tell Lajoie one morning that “there wasnt a doubt in my mind” that TB would come back to earth and fall out of the playoff hunt this year.
I remember thinking at the time that was a strange comment. It almost sounded like you were jealous of their success and trying to bring them down through sheer will-power. Nobody can be certain of anything like that, as you have been so painfully reminded this year.
Absolute statements like this really lower your credibility when they are proven false. A cynic would combine this with your puzzling defence of JP’s record and conclude that not only are you unable to analyze past events but neither can you predict the future with any semblance of accuracy. Heck, you even have problems ascertaining the present when you incorrectly tell people the Jays are mathematically eliminated!
Tabler has already gone on record as saying he spoke with AJ and thinks hes 60% likely to return next year. Arnsberg says AJ would return for longer term. Halladay says he thinks AJ will come back too and admist all of this, you just rachet up your insistence AJ is leaving.
It seems to me a large part of your job is persuading Jays fans to believe certain things and when you are consistently on the wrong side of events, your ability to do this is severely harmed.
So let me provide an opportunity for you:
In light of everything thats been said by AJ recently, by those who surround him, by JP himself and in light of developments like injuries to McGowan and Marcum, on a scale of 0 to 10 what do you think the chances of AJ returning next year are?
MW: 0.0005. Interesting that I didn’t hear from you at all while the Jays were playing well. Also, it should be a given that when I make statements about the future, how teams are going to do, etc., that it’s my OPINION. I know there are some people who actually believe that they know what’s going to happen in the future, but I’m neither stupid nor self-centred enough to believe that I’m one of them.
- ProkopecI spent the top of the 5th inning yesterday shaking my head. You covered the missed 3rd strike call and AJ’s ensuing mini-breakdown, and also the non-play on the Ellsbury bunt. But between those two:
After picking Ellsbury off, Burnett got a hard ground ball from Pedroia (that’s hard to type – like sequoia…) right to Scutaro. I am baffled by Scutaro’s decision to throw home. Once the dust settled it was 1st and 3rd, 1 out as Veritek quite wisely retreated to third. Personally I would cast my vote for taking the out at first and going after Ortiz to get out of the inning up 2-1.
In case I don’t post again this year, thanks for the season Mike – your blog and show are very entertaining and I hope you find a way to keep everything going next year!
MW: Thanks. I didn’t have a problem with Scoot throwing home there. If he had gotten a good throw off, they would have nailed Varitek in the rundown. Problem was, it was a weak throw, bounced up the first-base line, so Varitek was able to get back.
- James (from the 'Shwa)Final score: Blue Jays 3 First base ump 4.
What a terrible call that was! And then he had the guts to defend his position in a very arrogant way. What a moron that man is! It ruined the whole game for me.
I think if A.J wins his next start, he should be given a chance to go for no.20 in Baltimore on a 3 day rest or even 2 days rest if that means he could go for 5 innings and hope for the best.
MW: That’s what umpires do when they are threatened. They’re kind of like peacocks that way. A.J. will be given the opportunity to go on short rest for his 20th win if he wants, but he said last night that he doesn’t want it.
- BeburgMike, here’s an “off the wall” question:
Is there any chance the Jays might consider converting Overbay into a pitcher, again?
It is well known he has a very strong arm, although obviously there is much more required than simply arm strength, and I don’t know what he used to have in the way of “stuff”. But if it could be done, it would have the added advantage of being able to let him hit (as a pitcher), getting an extra bat into the lineup, at the same time giving someone else (Snider, Lind, Bautista) some experience at first base.
MW: No chance.
- NormMike, I’ve just read that Bartolo Colon has been “suspended by the Red Sox, and is not expected to pitch for them again this year”.
What is his contract status? Would he be a guy the Jays in whom the Jays might be interested?
(Note — “in whom”, not “in which”, which I believe I saw in one of your recent blogs).
MW: In which? I must have been referring to a player, not by name then. At least I would hope. Colon will be a free agent after this season, but he was suspended because the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen and he left the team.
- NormI don’t understand the logic some have here as to the 09 season looking so gloom for the Jays.
Most definately the ptiching is not going to be the same – starting pitching that is. However, we do still a dynamic bullpen and we have been more than surprised by guys coming up in the past.
If our hitting comes back to where it should have been for the 08 season and/or if we do get a big bat in the off season the Jays are still going to be just fine for 09.
The Red Sox for example relied heavily on their hitting and not as much on their pitching this season.
Boston is presently 9th in pitching overall (MLB). Toronto is 1st. As to hitting for 08 so far, the Jays are sitting right now at 20th spot and Boston is 3rd.
The Jays have scored thus far only 683 runs as compared to Boston who have scored 123 more runs for a total so far of 806.
The Jays have allowed 590 total runs thus far for 08 where Boston has allowed 57 more runs for a total of 647.
Jays hitting 08
.264/.330/.399
Bos hitting 08
.281/.359/.448
The comparisons with hitting are more than just significant. If the bats come back for the Jays as to slugging and risp we can afford a slide in pitching.
******************************
Jays ERA-3.54
Bos ERA-3.95
I know it’s only numbers however, if the Jays ERA for example jumped up to 4.0 – 4.2 Vs this seasons’ 3.59 (thus far)that is a significant amount that should be more than taken care of with the bats.
Just my thoughts as to the 09 season. One thing for sure as to 09 the “Miked Up” blog and the “Jays Talk” will be just as interesting. Keep up the good work Mike!
Thank You!
MW: And people say I’m an apologist for the Jays.
- Bob -I for one think AJ will stay. As for him pitching better in a contract year or staying healthier as to same. Yes, it looks that way however I must respectively, albeit partially disagree with you here Mike.
I believe when JP said publicly last season that AJ has to learn to pitch through some minor aches and pains it truly sunk in.
I also believe his attitude changed huge when Cito and the gang took over. Since then, and I noticed it very soon after the field boss change. AJ did not get as rattled when he got a lousy call from behind the plate or if someone booted a ball or when a hitter got to him. By making AJ more responsible out there he matured a whole lot!
Those two elements I believe have created the biggest change as to AJ. Let’s face it everyone knew he had the “goods” – it was a serious lack of maturity and being his own worst enemy that got him in trouble in the past.
Keep up the great job Mike – well deserved rest time will soon be upon you.
Thank You!
- Bob -Maybe take a chance on Brad Penny if the Dodgers don’t pick up his option?
MW: Except that he’s got a bad shoulder that’s had him on the DL twice this year. That’s something the Jays don’t need to deal with next season.
- ChrisBurnett isn’t coming back. We shouldn’t want him back.
However now everyone knows that we are short two pitchers, and the rotation behind Halladay looks very shaky. Also everyone knows that we don’t have any serious mashers. The cost of trading for pitchers just went sky-high and the cost of getting a mid-range fa dh just went up exponentially as well. What they are going to want, we can’t afford to give. So I think we will be fielding more-or-less the team we’re fielding now.
It’s a daunting prospect, because based on this season, we don’t have enough power to be a Texas-type mash’em team and we don’t have enough speed to get our runs via the fast turn through third base. We have a very strong bullpen. And the rotation is anchored by arguably the best pitcher in baseball. So I’m assuming we won’t have too many 6-game losing skids if Halladay keeps healthy.
What to do?
I don’t see mortgaging the farm for every prospect we have to get an averagely talented pitcher. I do see going into (yet another) rebuild this off-season and next season. Although I cannot stand Rios, I don’t think we should trade the fastest guy we have. And someone, moreover, who can hit for doubles. He really ought to hit lead-off in my opinion.
The one good thing about next year is that the team won’t have any great hopes to live up to. So no pressure. We can give a few rookies a good long look. Of course the Yankees and Red Sox will be re-arming. T-Bay should still be a major factor. However I have a lot of faith in Cito Gaston’s ability to keep the team focussed.
I was going to say that it’ll be interesting. But interesting is what it probably will not be.
MW: But didn’t they go on that 10-game win streak because there was no pressure? Therefore they’ll have an incredible record next year.
- reyesMike,
Is there a reason there has been no attention focused on Ichiro. Has he been injured or just having a bad year? Also, how old is he and when is his contract up?
MW: He just picked up his 200th hit of the season. Isn’t he the only player ever to have at least 200 hits in his first eight seasons in the majors? He’s hitting .314/.365/.392 with 43 steals in 47 attempts. Man, your standards are way too high. He signed a five-year extension last season, and he’s 34.
- MikeHello Mike
I was listening to the Jaystalk last night. There was one caller in particular who was angry at everything about the jays, starting from Cito to BJ Ryan to Halladay. If he though the team was so bad, why watch? It is the same reason I haven’t watch the leafs for decades.
MW: It’s interesting that people who seem to hate the Jays so much still care enough to call in to a radio post-game show about them.
- francis xIV4TCT
Wow my grandpa/cottage story was even longer than I thought. I went through the comments, as usual, and geeeeez. Oopsie.
Thanks for the kind words! A sad time, but he did get to 96, and tons of good memories, so there’s plenty of sweet in the bittersweet
You’re right. “And there she goes” isn’t one of Tom’s lines. Not so much Cheek-speak, but very Jerry. I took a stab in the dark there.
My memory’s not quite so good. I admit to some slight cheating. No syringes or Human Growth Home-run, but I have watched O Canada a few times, but not for a couple years or so.
O Canada is the Jays ’92 video, followed by Back 2 Back (’93), and they were both after my favourite, Sky High (’89). I think I could still dig up the trilogy. Did you ever have any of these? They’re awesome videos. Tom Cheek narrates, possibly with Jerry too, but I think just Tom. I doubt they were ever made into DVDs or anything else beyond VHS, but it would a lot cooler if they did.
MW: I don’t have any of those videos, actually. They’d be pretty cool to watch.
- Dilly in Dundas (not the street)I know it’s “a lot cooler if they were” but I think I was trying to be Dazed and Confused there
MW: It’s actually “a lot cooler if they had been.”
- Dilly in Dundas (not the street)Hi Mike,
Do you agree that any player that does not figure into next year for the Jays next season (Mench, Wilkerson, Zaun for example) should not be playing the rest of the way? I mean right now, we arent trying to win games but trying to give more experience to guys that DO figure in the long term plans to the team (Lind, Snider, lower extent someone like Thigpen) I dont know why
they keep doing the defensive sub in the later innings (Is Wilkerson that much faster than Lind) and also days like today having Mench in there as a right-handed masher? At this point, I would rather give the kids more lefty on lefty experience than having Mench POSSIBLY go 1/5 with a double or something. Your thoughts?
MW: So long as the Jays are playing a team with something on the line, it’s their responsibility to field the best team they can, as opposed to giving the kids a look.
- FrankHey Mike,
I gotta say again that i really hope we don’t resign AJ after the best year of his career. The chances he will repeat, go uninjured, or even put up the types of innings he’s been putting up, are definetly not in our favour.
That said, thanks for another great season Mike. You handle the ups and downs of it very well, and weather the criticism’s very well.
Every time i know i don’t agree with you i just tune into Mike Toth or Bobcat to listen to the type of CNN quality glossing over of baseball that they try to pass off as informed commentary, and it makes me thankful we have you. I know thats not fair to them, i’ve never actually heard them state that they were informed baseball commentators so i should not assume.
Thanks again Mike.
MW: This isn’t A.J.’s best season, just his healthiest. And while there’s a chance that he is past his injuries and will be a 30+ start guy for the next few years, I don’t know why so many people seem to think that’s likely.
- DaveYou know what, I LOVE DOC! His stare at the HP umpire made my day. What a knockout blow that was.
Why is the HP ump. acting like a jerk in this series? Does he have any issues with Blue Jays?
MW: He seems to have squeezed Lester just as much as he has Halladay today. It hasn’t been pretty.
- BeburgHey Mike A garza for Rios type deal where both teams think they win. Pitching for offense. Possible head case for a team player. That I get.
MW: How do you know that Garza is a “team player”? What I was referring to was that Garza for Young (plus a bunch of other stuff from both sides) was a cheap-for-cheap, value-for-value, controllable-for-controllable, my-surplus-for-your-problem kind of trade. With Rios having signed the big-bucks extension, that kind of deal is now much more difficult to make.
- DaveBWhat’s the average attendance at the rogers centre this year? I know the season isn’t over but I’m just curious.
MW: 29,213 going into Saturday’s game, so it’ll go up twice over this weekend. They’re 6th in the league. This will be the 6th straight year that the Jays’ attendance has risen.
- TommyMW: 0.0005. Interesting that I didn’t hear from you at all while the Jays were playing well. Also, it should be a given that when I make statements about the future, how teams are going to do, etc., that it’s my OPINION. I know there are some people who actually believe that they know what’s going to happen in the future, but I’m neither stupid nor self-centred enough to believe that I’m one of them.
__________
Nice to see you missed me Mike. Unfortunately, during the Jays brief renaissance I had other obligations which prevented me from posting on here. Just remember though, like you I am a Jays fan and I too was cheering them along. Its amazing to watch the difference a big league manager can have on the results posted by a poorly constructed team.
And in case you had any doubt, I certainly don’t run to the bank trying to cash in your opinions. I am just trying to make the point, when people challenge your opinions you seem to respond by making outlandish claims about how certain you are you are right. This is very off putting as evidenced by the many complaints you generate, and in your line of business, I would think this is not necessarily a trait you desire to have.
MW: Truth be told (as I always be telling), the many complaints I generate aren’t bad at all. I don’t seem to generate a lot of indifference, which is good. It seems as though a whole lot of people really like me, and a whole lot of people REALLY don’t. But they’re all listening, calling, reading and commenting regardless of how they feel. I don’t like being so heavily disliked, who would? But I’m not going to coddle the people who require their opinions validated if I don’t agree with them. I don’t believe I make outlandish claims about how certain I am, I just think I back up my opinions. I still think that I was right to believe that the Rays would fall out of it, and that my reasons for thinking that way were sound. Obviously, they have had an amazing run, and more power to them. You’ll recall, though, that I was laughed at in June for saying that the Jays would finish 10 games ahead of Oakland and 20 up on Baltimore, and it turns out I’m going to be pretty close.
- ProkopecNot sure about Garza being a team player, fairly certain Rios is not. But remember this isn’t hockey. There is no salary cap.
MW: There isn’t a salary cap, but there are budgets. I don’t think that anyone on the Blue Jays would agree that Rios isn’t a team player. Unfocused at times, sure.
- DaveBMW: Truth be told (as I always be telling), the many complaints I generate aren’t bad at all. I don’t seem to generate a lot of indifference, which is good.
______________________
I understand what you are saying Mike, about controversy not necessarily being bad.
But you must admit you are a bit unique. I have never heard any other Fan personality criticized by his colleagues on air. Specifically, McCown has recently suggested you dont belong on the air because of your constant spinning. Before the series at Fenway I heard a 20/20 sportsbreak guy on a Friday morning update preface his description of the series as being “important” by stating he rarely agrees with anything you say. Toth questioned your sanity.
I must admit though its all very entertaining.
MW: I think, actually, that it’s extremely unprofessional for other hosts to criticize their fellow hosts on the air, unless they’ve got them on the air with them, in which case it’s fine. I hope that McCown only said something along those lines, as opposed to using those actual words, because that would be way over the line, franchise or not, but I’m not going to get into a fight with Bob, because it’s one I can’t win.
- ProkopecHey Mike
I just wrote a final Season Report Card of the Jays here’s the link. Even if you just skim it tell me what you think?
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=display&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=55171
MW: I read the whole thing, and my first thought is that you REALLY need to proofread your work before you submit. I agree with some of your rankings, disagree with some others. Since you’re 21, I don’t think you should use the word “kid” as much as you did to describe some of the younger players, all of whom save for Snider are older than you. I also think you relied too much on a reliever’s ERA as a means to judge him. Generally, ERAs for relievers don’t mean anything. Two things stood out for me especially – criticizing Brian Tallet for giving up too many homers when he’s allowed 0.69 per nine innings, which is an excellent ratio, and calling Adam Lind a proven power hitter when he is on pace for an 18-homer season (pro-rated to 162 games). It’s solid, though, it’s easy to tell that you put a lot of work into it, but the spelling and grammar is atrocious.
- TarunMike:
Is the Jays playing in the AL East the problem it’s made out to be? Since 2006, the Jays are 53-51 against the Yankees and Red Sox.
Against the big three this year, they’re 24-27; that’s not far off from what the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees have done head-to-head-to-head:
Rays vs. Yankees/Red Sox/Blue Jays 28-26
Red Sox vs. Yankees/Rays/Blue Jays 24-25
Yankees vs. Rays/Red Sox/Blue Jays 25-23
Toronto’s problem has been against teams they should be fattening their record against. The Rangers, A‘s, Mariners, Indians, Reds and Pirates (.451 winning percentage) were 23-17 against the Jays this year–when you play .425 ball against losing clubs you won’t be earning a spot in the post season.
Playing in the AL East hasn’t been a problem for the Jays for the last three years–it’s the games against everybody else that’s causing them difficulties.
Thoughts?
Best Regards
John
MW: I have a research project for you, because I’ve always been interested in this but have never had the time to try to hammer it out. The Yankees and Red Sox simply wear pitchers out, or at least that’s my contention. They wear down starters, beat up on bullpens, and take a lot out of a team, win or lose. I would love to know what the Jays’ record is the week after they play the Red Sox and Yankees, to see if that’s where the detrimental effect is. Care to take that on?
- John B.“MW: I have a research project for you, because I’ve always been interested in this but have never had the time to try to hammer it out. The Yankees and Red Sox simply wear pitchers out, or at least that’s my contention. They wear down starters, beat up on bullpens, and take a lot out of a team, win or lose. I would love to know what the Jays’ record is the week after they play the Red Sox and Yankees, to see if that’s where the detrimental effect is. Care to take that on?”
Sure, but I’ll use a three year sample since those are the years I was looking at.
Best Regards
John
MW: Thanks.
- John B.Mike…
Given the new priorities for next year (pitching!), I’m sure talk of a SS solution will die down. Given Marco’s play this year, I’d say it’s fair to let him be the guy next year (with J-Mac as the late inning defensive replacement).
It probably wouldn’t be popular with a lot of fans, but would whatever they could get be worth the amount more they’d have to pay for it? Especially when all available $$’s will need to go to pitching and that elusive dh. What do you think of Marco as the everyday SS? A reasonable reward for that mvp season .
MW: I would be reluctant to head into a season with Scutaro as the everyday shortstop, unless Cito Gaston was willing to bat him 9th and ALWAYS remove him for defense late.
- djmLooks like my comment about Marco as next year’s SS was truncated a bit. I wanted a slight sarcasm warning tacked on the end there… I don’t consider him an mvp candidate this year, despite considering him the everyday SS candidate for next year.
MW: Whew.
- djmO.K., what I did was look at the series immediately after a Red Sox/Yankee series or spate of back-to-back series
between the clubs (there aren’t a lot of full weeks between series before they run into one or the other again but I’ll grab those after I have the first bit of data). The Jays often faced both clubs in consecutive series (as should be expected considering the unbalanced schedule and geography).
Since 2006, the Jays are 42-37 in games following series/set of series against the Yanks/Red Sox. The Jays won 12 series, lost 10 and split three. The Jays swept the subsequent series twice and were swept once. The Jays swept a four game series from the White Sox after losing two of three in Fenway in early May.
Year by year…
2006: 15-12
2007: 15-15
2008: 12-10
In full week’s (seven games) after a series/set of series (when available): 64-47.
2006: 19-16
2007: 24-17
2008: 21-14
Go figure eh? If I had to hypothesize a guess, I’d surmise that the Jays are “up” for series against them and there’s a carry-over effect.
When you combine the two data points (head-to-head and the above) and how they perform after playing them it would appear that the Jays might almost benefit from playing in the AL East. It’s when they have long stretches against lesser teams that they struggle at times. They had runs of 6-13 and 10-16 during stretches when they didn’t have games against BOS/NYY this year, I didn’t see anything quite as drastic in 2006 or 2007 other than stretches of 20-odd games where they were a couple of game below .500–nothing out of the ordinary.
Best Regards
John
MW: Wow. That’s really interesting, and totally opposite to what I was expecting.
- John B.MW: But didn’t they go on that 10-game win streak because there was no pressure? Therefore they’ll have an incredible record next year.
Well, yes. That’s the point I was making. This team seems to perform much better when the pressure isn’t on. Which is why I thought they did so badly in April, especially after Thomas was booted. (Not that I thought Thomas was a terrific player. He should never have been signed in my opinion.)
With no expectations, they might do well enough. But they are still so weak in so many positions that I can’t see them surprising us hugely. We’re short of power in right field, first base and third base. We don’t have a credible dh. Given that the bats are iffy, playing McDonald as everyday shortstop might not be the best idea–even though he’s one of my favourite players, and the best defensive s/s in the league. So we’re short there as well. Hill is a question mark. Catching is somewhat of a question mark. If Zaun leaves–as he will–who will be our second catcher? Thigpen seemed to be giving Doc fits today and that’s not a good start.
So I have a question: how do you now feel about the ‘big bucks extension’ handed to Rios? Because I think it makes him untradeable. Along with untradeable Vernon Wells, untradeable Scott Rolen and probably untradeable Lyle Overbay. Either we’ll have to deal our best prospects or we’ll have to stand pat. And hope that Rios sees a shrink, Wells gets his swing back, Rolen’s shoulder heals and Overbay learns how to avoid the dp.
MW: Miguel Tejada, Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero and Magglio Ordonez have hit into more DPs this season than Overbay has. Rolen and Wells are untradeable, but I don’t think anyone else is. And Rios doesn’t need a shrink.
- reyesWhat’s up with all of these pitching injuries? In the last 2 years the team has lost:
1. Ryan
2. Jansen
3. Accardo
4. McGowan
5. Marcum
6. League
all to serious arm, shoulder or elbow injuries.
Is there something wrong with their mechanics, training regimes, throwing too many pitches or is it just plain bad luck? It’s just unbelievable to lose so many young pitchers in such a short time span. Roy Halladay, however, just keeps going and going. This whole situation would make an interesting study for a medical professional, kinesiologist or magazine such as Sports Illustrated.
MW: I haven’t got a clue why all these pitchers are dropping.
- joeRe #16 — whom or which — sorry, Mike, my memory was a bit faulty, but…
Here is the sentence I remembered, from the Sept. 18 blog:
“I think he’s just going to wind up being someone about whose health fingers will have to be kept crossed.”
The reference is to Scott Rolen, and my issue is with “whose”, which I think should read “whom”. (I can’t come up with any circumstance where the use of “whose” in this sentence sounds correct).
MW: “about whose health”
- NormMW: I would be reluctant to head into a season with Scutaro as the everyday shortstop, unless Cito Gaston was willing to bat him 9th and ALWAYS remove him for defense late.
———-
Some fielding stats for you…
J-Mac
9 errors in 64 games at SS, 69 games including 2b play.
Marco
4 errors in 51 games at SS
1 error in 48 g @ 2b
2 errors in 41 g @ 3b
8 errors in 140 games
I know that doesn’t touch range, but do you think Marco’s range is really that bad? (I don’t know enuf about Range Factor to compare those stats, but for the record J-Mac is 4.08 this year, MS is 4.41 at SS.)
Re: Marco batting 9th… scary thought: who bats lead off next year when Hill comes back? Rios? Hill? Dare I ask… Marco?
MW: I’ll guarantee you that McDonald has gotten to at least 10 more balls than Scutaro, which makes the error number moot. I don’t think Scoot’s range is that bad, I’ve been pleasantly surprised,actually. I would think that with Hill back, Rios would lead-off. But Scutaro may well be the guy.
- djmMW: I hope that McCown only said something along those lines, as opposed to using those actual words
_______________
I paraphrased.
I think somebody said the winning streak was significant even though they were out of it and made reference to you.
Then McCown said, and this is not an exact quote as I think I was driving at that time and was a bit distracted, but McCown said ‘Wilner can spin it anyway he wants, but wins after you are out of it are not as important as wins when you are still in it and if Wilner doesnt know that he shouldn’t have a show’. Actually, I think thats a pretty accurate summation.
I took that to mean he thought you were either dishonest or dumb. Which might explain the rumour I heard that during a stretch over the summer, you were scheduled several times to appear on his show and stood them up. Of course the day after I was told this you were on his show. But thats another story.
MW: I have never stood up McCown, I’m very, very rarely scheduled to appear on his show – almost never when he’s not on vacation. I did stand up Hogan once when he had Rich Griffin in-studio. I totally forgot that I was supposed to do it.
- Prokopeccomment 11
- slobberfacei figured that.
Thought maybe youd have means to watch it afterwards, or listen in…IM SO SORRY
Mike, re #41
This is incredible! Until your response, I was reading it completely wrongly! I read it as though someone was crossing “health fingers”, thinking that it was another of your “figures of speech”. I never even thought to try it with a “comma” (implied or real) after “health”.
My abject apologies.
MW: No problem!
- NormNow that Marcum is gone for 09 do you think the jays may try to offer Burnett an extention rather than having him opt out? I was thinking in the range of 4 years at 16 mil(88 mil over the 6 years if he does not opt out) or are the jays better off going after someone like a Derek Lowe?
MW: They’re better off with Burnett, if he can stay healthy, but I don’t think that 4/64 will do much for him.
- RoyceI heard that McCowan part where he referenced u Mike. I think he was commenting more on how optimistic you are, when it comes to the Jays, then how much of a spin doctor you were. Your optimisim though was what he was commenting on in the macro sense that you assist in sustaining a bluejays culture which isn’t a winning one.
The show was basically bashing the late season resurgence that JP relies on to leave a good impression in the minds of Jays fans so as to re-create a sense of hope for the following season.
His thesis was that the Jays only sell hope, and that you were guilty of the same thing when you talk about the positives to be gained by still winning games in Sept, when the ones that really matter are the ones in June when there’s still a chance to get to the post season.
I think it’s just that you were, in his opinion, guilty of fostering a culture of hope; when what the Jays “needed” was a realistic approach, ala blow up the team and trade Halladay.
MW: That’s not a realistic approach, that’s a ridiculous one.
- Dave