2:25 AM Eastern
This was something new from the Blue Jays – immediately after having the opposition put up a crooked number to take the lead, they stormed back to retake it right away!
The Tigers broke open a 1-1 game in the bottom of the 6th by taking A.J. Burnett to the woodshed. A disputed home run by Magglio Ordonez (which was indeed gone – the umps eventually made the right call) led off the inning, then two outs later Gary Sheffield blasted his second of the game, and there was no dispute about it. Edgar Renteria and Brandon Inge followed with back-to-back hard line doubles, and Burnett was most assuredly on the ropes. Then Inge let him off of them by getting thrown out trying to steal third. Incredibly ill-thought-out.
Down 4-1 the Jays didn’t even give their most pessimistic fans that much time to write them off. They put two on with one out, then scored a runner from third with less than two out on a groundout before Joel Zumaya came in and poured the contents of his guitar-shaped gas can all over Comerica Park. The 100+ mile-an-hour man faced five Jays, and didn’t get any of them out. The big blow was Vernon Wells’ go-ahead two-run double, his second hit of the game. With the double, he moved back within five RBIs of the team lead, despite having missed two months. Again, that’s an indictment of his teammates, not so much a compliment to Vernon.
John McDonald walked and doubled, and had another potential double taken away from him by Carlos Guillen, who made a nice play to snare a line drive that was headed down the left-field line. Johnny Mac has four hits in his last 10 at-bats , and credited Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace for his mini-surge (that batting average is all the way up to .212). He says they’re encouraging him to get the bat-head out, to pull the ball, instead of just trying to “blade” base hits the other way (to quote the great Ken Huckaby). McDonald is also heeding Gary Denbo’s advice to be more patient at the plate, and he’s become much more comfortable hitting behind in the count. It’s all-but-impossible to imagine Johnny Mac finally becoming a hitter on the eve of his 34th birthday, but just imagine how much of an asset he’d be if he could only get on base even 32% of the time.
Brandon League continues to impress. He gave up a hit and threw a wild pitch in his one shutout inning, but the hit was a little opposite-field looper by Placido Polanco. League has now gone 8 outings without being scored upon, and over that span has pitched 10 2/3 innings while allowing just five hits and walking four, with five strikeouts. It appears as though League has become Cito’s man in the 7th inning, helping to build the bridge to Scott Downs, then B.J. Ryan, each of whom threw a perfect inning to help nail down the victory.
Since the blown save that had many calling for Ryan’s trade, release or retirement, he’s thrown five shutout innings, having allowed three hits and two walks, while striking out four.
The pitching staff will have its work cut out for it the rest of this series, though. League, Downs and Ryan have all pitched two days in a row, and David Purcey is starting tomorrow, followed by the return of Jesse Litsch. They’re going to need baseball’s best bullpen for help, unless the bats give them a huge cushion – but that couldn’t happen, could it?
Finally, before everyone goes nuts about Alex Rios’ failure to slide at the plate in the 9th on the pitch that got away from Brandon Inge, it should be said that Rios was, indeed, safe. He kind of half-tiptoed, half-dipsy-doodled into the plate (tipdoodled? dipsytoed?), despite the fact that Rod Barajas was screaming and waving at him to slide. He beat the tag, but had he slid, he would have been clearly safe (since he wouldn’t have slowed down as much as he did with the dipsytipping) and probably would have been called safe. If you look at the replay, you’ll notice Barajas throwing his hands up in the air in seeming disbelief at the way Rios came into the plate. I feel his pain.
Here’s tonight’s The JaysTalk for your listening pleasure:
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Jansenn, Accardo, League, Downs, Ryan……….dare to dream jays fans, dare to dream.
MW: Dare to dream? They already have the best bullpen in the league without Janssen and Accardo – so dare to dream even bigger!
- TerryHey Mike, I’m doing ok. Today I left after the 6th inning of the Jays game to meet none other that canadian great Ferguson Jenkins at Nat Bailey Stadium, right near where I live. I got him to sign an old wilson baseball right on the sweet spot! It cost 10 dollars per person for an autograph but the money went towards reasearch for diabetes. Nice guy! He threw out the games ceremonial first pitch and it registered 42 mph on the speed gun. I hope you get a chance to interview him on the fan if you have not already.
MW: I haven’t yet, but I hope I do, too.
- Matt from BCI haven’t listened to tonights show, but maybe the reason for the lack of commentary over Shannon Stewart being released stems from the fact that Adam Lind is playing so well. I’d rather have Lind in left than Reed. Perhaps others feel the same way.
Is Litsch pitching on Thurday? I was listening to the Yankees broadcast after the Jays game ended. They said Phil Hughes was going to be called up to pitch against the Jays on Tuesday. Knowing you, you don’t care, but I’m telling you anyway.
MW: Knowing me, I don’t care about who the Jays will be facing on Tuesday?
- Jim in OhioGreat job tonight by these Bluejays…they would really be on quite a run now if they didn’t completely implode at home against the Indians. Two questions for you Mike- 1)Do you think Burnett wins 20 this season? 2) In your opinion, is there anybody in the league today who will break DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak?….Thanks Mike
MW: 1 – Maybe. 2 – Maybe.
- Trevor BHey Mike
Im tired of J-Mac and people saying how much he is so great and Matt Stairs as well.. I was at the Sundays game and it was such a big deal when he just went over .200 I had to take a picture of it cause I thought it would never happen again.. I mean we are so happy with foul balls he had last night.. Next year we need to go out and find us a true SS.. Now Matt Stairs.. First off they promote this guy as a pro Canadian which he doesnt even live in Canada.. He so Canadian this and that Im tired of hearing it. He is no big bat at all.. We need to go out and find us a true DH next year. I think those positions need to be filled quick and I think this will help the team..
MW: See, now, saying that you didn’t think John McDonald would ever hit .200 again is just stupid.
- EddieDear Mike:
I would just like to say that I think that you are very entertaining. Like tonight on “The Jays Talk”. A guy called and asked how you were, then immediately stated he wasn’t going to ask that very question. You called him on it and I thought it was just hiliarious. Thanks. Keep up the great work. You stated tonight, that you think J.P. should be given one more year. Aaaaaaaaahhhhh, I don’t know. He’s had numerous chances. I grant you he’s made a few good moves. But you must admit he’s whiffed on numerous others. The boys of summer need a big bopper at DH. You were making fun of Jason Bartlett at DH tonight. Who do the Jays have that instills fear at DH? Anyways keep up the sweet work. I’ll try to call sometime on “The Jays Talk” to “Jays talk it up”.
MW: I was making fun of Jason Bartlett at DH because that’s even worse than using David Eckstein as the DH, which the Jays have been forced to do on a few occasions this season.
- Robert FryeI love how McDonald is making pitchers work! (in addition to hitting well)
- JaybirdHello Mike
It never fails, you always look at the big picture when answering calls. Us fans tend to get emotional and react to the ‘moment in time’ rather than looking at it in the long run.
I actually like the Jays line-up, when they are healthy.
Overbay at 1st, Hill at 2nd, Rolen at third, Rios at RF, Wells in CF and Lind LF. The question is DH, shortstop and in a way, catching.
I am though, a little worried about their starting pitching. I am concerned that if burnett goes, they will still end up with paying almost the same money for another pitcher who is not as good as Burnett. You’ve mentioned Ben Sheet. Realistically, does the Jays have a chance to sign him?
MW: I think the Jays DO have a realistic chance to sign Ben SheetS. Thing is, he’s as much of an injury risk as Burnett was when the Jays signed him, and he’ll likely cost more than the 5/55 it took to sign A.J. Chances are that whoever they sign won’t be as good as Burnett, but I don’t think the Jays necessarily go after a top of the rotation guy.
- francishey Mike, great game from the jays to give Burnett his best season ever, more is yet to come we hope! Vernon seems to have ignited this lineup and it goes to show what a couple of decent hitters can do for this pitching laden team; Rios had two stolen bases and a solid game, as well as Lind keeping up his torrid hitting, he is a gem. Lastly Macdonald is an assest for his defence, and if he hit .300 or better he would be a superstar, and he’s playing extremely well so far, irrespective of his average, the jays would be foolish to spend big money on a shortstop when they need an upgrade @ dh which is a dire need(stairs is having an off season)and possibly an extra bat in the outfield for insurance purposes. It would be a nice experiment to see Brandon League as a starter, he might be a diamond in the rough, thx mike, keep up the good work.
MW: The fact that the Jays need an upgrade at DH doesn’t eliminate their need to improve at shortstop as well. Burnett only has his highest career win total. Statistically, this is far from his best season ever.
- robert sI don’t know if Brandon League has a nickname but I’ll call him “Prince of Hawaii” from now on. He’s throwing good controlled heat again(98mph) and has come back like a champ. If you see him, tell him that don’t cut his hair. That 1960s hairstyle looks good on him.
- Beburg aka The 88mph manAny chance that JP is taking a look at Huff or Sheffield to occupy the DH slot for the rest of the way? Each move would obviously have its issues (O’s not wanting to deal in-division, Sheff is having an awful and injury-plagued year) but if either were possible it would seem the Jays could use the power.
MW: I wouldn’t mind taking a flier on Aubrey Huff.
- JimCan we please get a personal trainer for these guys. Maby canseco or sosa can pump these players up a little and show them how to hit a ball over the fence.
League looks well on his way to our closer of the future. When first hearing that he lost i think 7mph on his fastball all i could think of was the juice. Was their something wrong with his arm before now or what. This guy throws nasty heat. One more thing. If jp can get delgado back to finish his career, i will be back at the ball park. Best blue jay of all time, my opinion.
MW: Delgado’s definitely in the conversation with Alomar and Stieb. With League, it was a lat muscle issue that robbed him of his effectiveness last year.
- Rob HoughA.J has 10 starts left. 5 wins in those 10 will give him 20 wins. Doc has 10 starts left too. He could very well win 7 of those to get to 20 as well. So the obvious question… who were the last two Jays to win 20 in a season?
MW: In the same season? It’s never happened. The last two Jays to win 20, I believe, were Halladay and David Wells.
- Beburg aka The 88mph manHi Mike,
Yesterday’s game was very entertaining. I thought it was over after Sheffield hit his second dinger. And I almost turned off my TV whe nthey made it 4-1. And when Adam Lind got that lead off single, I felt a glimmer of hope. And I was stunned at how the Jays came all the way back on the road in front of 40000 fans. Vernon’s swing is the best I’ve seen it in ages. He’s hitting line drives almost every at bat.
One question:
Which game was better?
Florida vs Colorado 17-18
or
Texas vs Boston 17-19
Both teams came back from huge deficits and Colorado won and Texas lost.
My Jays awards
Pitcher- Halladay
Hitter- Rios (I’m not a big fan but what other choice do I have?)
Reliefer- Scott Downs
Most Improved- Adam Lind
Most Dissapointing- Scott Rolen
MW: I didn’t see either of the games you mentioned, so I can’t say which was better. You’re being tough on Rolen, he’s hurt. If you’re going to pick him, you might as well pick Aaron Hill.
- WarrenI think I was most impressed with the at-bats that Johnny Mac had, fighting off pitch after pitch, making the pitcher work. Even if the hitter ends up making an out after a long at-bat, I still feel there is some value in spiking the pitch count. Most hurlers start to lose their effectiveness if they throw more than 15-20 pitches in an inning, so Johnny Mac’s 12-pitch battle helped the other hitters in the inning, since Miner wasn’t as sharp, and it also hastened Miner’s exit from the game. The Prime Minister of Defense won’t keep this up, but it’s fun while it lasts.
- GrrbearI’ll admit, I wrote them off after falling behing 4-1 and yielded control of the remote to my wife and so I had the pleasure of watching women’s gymnastics instead of watching the Jays comeback. Shame on me, shame on me.
MW: Indeed.
- DerekHey Mike,
I didn’t get a chance to see the game last night – or hear it – but is Rios starting to become a guy that might disrupt the clubhouse a bit? I know your thought on team chemistry – but with all these things – are the other 24 going to start getting sick of it?
MW: If the do, I hope they do something about it.
- Andrew SWas it smart to have League, Downs and Ryan all pitch 2 days in a row when Purcey and Litch are coming up? I agree in a close game to put your best guys in there, but why on Monday night? I know you want to make sure they get their innings in, but all 3?
MW: League and Downs can probably still pitch tonight.
- Shmuel Yitzchok” If you look at the replay”, Where can we see the replay? Its not on MLB.com
MW: I don’t know. YouTube? Sportsnet Connected?
- Shmuel YitzchokNice to see the Jays win a game against a really tough opponent.
Season is over, but still nice to see them come back.
The main thrust of my post is Rios. I have played a LOT of team sports throughout my life from high school to my current middle age. Hockey, slo-pitch, hardball, soccer, football, pretty much any team sport. I have sucked at all of them, but gave my best effort all the time.
Many a time I have seen a talented player decide that 75 or 80% effort is good enough, since the result of that effort is still better than most of his team mates.
You know what that does to a team? You saw Barajas’ response last night. Every guy on any team, any sport feels the same way. The vast majority never visibly show it or call out the player, but this thing grows like a cancer on the team.
A team needs a strong captain of strong manager to stop this behaviour. And many times that is not enough.
Eventually, that player moves on, or is booted off the team. And you know what? The teams I have been on usually perform BETTER once the cancer is removed, even if the replacement does not have the same talent, but has more drive to perform.
If Gaston can’t get inside Rios’ head about playing all out, a competent GM should move Rios and his laziness to another team. Replace him with a less talented gamer whose 100% effort is equivalent to Rios’ 75% effort.
MW: I think you generally wind up losing in making a move like that. It’ll be very tough to get value in return for Rios, though it can be done. How does it look, though, when he finally snaps out of it and becomes a perennial all-star with his new team? Oh, wait – he’s a perennial all-star with this team.
- Paul BHi, Mike:
All year long we have been using the three “basic” stats — BA/OBP/SLG, with the latter two added together to form OPS.
My question for you — as a generalization, what do you consider to be “good numbers” for these stats, and what would you consider “excellent”. (I’m defining “good” as “totally adequate; no complaints”, and “excellent” as “above average verging on outstanding”)
In my own opinion, I’d go with .285/.350/.420/.770 as “good”, with .300/.380/.450/.830 as “excellent”.
What do you think?
MW: I’m not a big fan of OPS because it can be so misleading. Last year, the MLB average was .268/.336/.423. So I’ll give you .285/.350 as good, but up the slg to maybe .450. I think of .320/.400/.550 as “excellent”, but I have higher standards for excellence.
- NormSorry if this has been asked already but do you think that J.P. will pick up Sheffield off waivers? And do you think he could be the scary bat we need? I think he showed last night that he can still turn around a good fastball.
MW: I don’t think the Jays will claim Sheffield on waivers. They didn’t claim Brian Giles, and he’s arguably a better fit.
- CPLast night while a nice win was a good illustration why Alex Rios (and i like him)with all his tremendous athletic ability still has a lot to learn as a baseball player. He does not have the instincts for the game like a guy like John McDonald does. First of all, if he is going to attempt to steal third base and come home on the wild pitch he has got to be sure he is going to be safe in both circumstances (not maybe).I happen to think he was out on the steal attempt but it was a close play. On the play at home if you watch the replay carefully you will see had he slid he would have been out for sure. Dolsi actually put the tag down expecting him to slide and when he didn’t he confused him and as the replay showed Rios was safe.
Can someone please tell me why somebody hasn’t gotten to Rios to change his stance and more importantly to move him back off the plate. With all his physical ability he can’t possibly drive the ball off the good part of bat when he stands this close to the plate. Pitches that are strikes on the inside part of the plate can only be hit off the handle if at all. I am no baseball expert but I have played at a high enough level to know this common sense fact. Take a look at where Adam Lind stands compared to Rios and you will see how the ball jumps off of Lind’s bat (a partial tribute to his ablity as well)
MW: If you’re no baseball expert, then you’ll defer to the actual baseball experts (the ones who make a living at it) who are trying to figure out how to bring Rios’ power back. Rios would have been moving a lot faster if he had slid, and would have been safe pretty easily, I think.
- mike glattHi Mike,
Rios is a geniusolic. All year he’s been accused of not having enough ‘hustle’. Now against Detroit he’s running rampant. Going from 1st to 3rd on a single in Game 1, calling his own 3rd base steal in Game 2 and running home on a wild pitch.
If he had slid home he would certainly have been out. As you know, the natural reaction for a ballplayer on a play like that is to block the plate and swapply (swipe/apply) a tag as if the runner was going to slide. In this case Alex held up a bit, confused the pitcher who then applied a tag to Rios’ chest AFTER Rios had placed his foot on the plate.
It’s one for the highlight reel!
Question: What is the feedback from the players on this blog? It would be great if one of them could answer a few questions in this forum!
Aneez
MW: I have yet to have any feedback from the players about this blog. I assume none of them are aware of its existence.
- AneezRios continues to drive me crazy. I mentioned a while back that he was turning his head on bouncing balls and I have seen him do it again since. He is not looking to the base like you suggested he might be. He continues to make baserunning errors and look like a rookie from time to time. I have heard many comments that he is hard on himself and extremely competitive. What do you think the issue is?
If the Jays were to trade Ryan in the offseason do you think they could get a big bat for him? I think it would be well worth it and not a huge risk to go with Downs and Accardo with League as a capable fill in for injury.
MW: I don’t think they could get a big bat for Ryan. The Rangers got a nice haul from Boston for Eric Gagne, but no one huge player. I haven’t got a clue what Rios’ issue is.
- The ChadWas up at a tournament on the weekend and was only able to hear snipets of games against Cleveland.
Another interesting stat that I heard concerning Alex Rios. After a putout at home, he leads the MLB in OF assists!!! Yeah, this guy has been a huge disappointment. Almost 30 doubles, almost 30 steals, .280 + batting average, leads the MLB in assists. He’s not an OF you can build a winner around.
Why the return of Litsch? Is Richmond’s audition over after 3 starts?
MW: Litsch, it seems, has gone to AAA and done what was requested of him, so he’s back. Richmond goes to the ‘pen and will compete for a starting job next year, I think.
- Aaron KerHey Mike,
I respectfully disagree with your thoughts on the play at the plate involving Rios. It looked to me that Freddy Dolsi started to stand up when he saw that Rios was letting up and that’s when Alex tried to slip his foot in under the tag. I think if Rios goes hard and slides, Dolsi probably applies the tag relatively easily because the throw beat him Rios by a good 3 or 4 steps.
In light of the Sox Rangers game do you prefer a 3-2 well pitched game or a 19-17 home run derby?
Thanks for your time Mike!
MW: Seems as though a lot of people agree with you. I don’t mind a good 19-17 game, but not too often.
- Brendanyou always say you’ll trade anyone so long as it makes the team better!! right? good thinking I agree. But shouldn’t you be saying the same thing about the GM??? if you believe like I do that J.P. is an average GM or I think you probally believe J.P. has been slightly above average or even a good GM maybe? but can’t we find a great GM? isn’t that something Paul Godfrey should be looking for to make this team better?
MW: It’s different with executives, because you don’t trade them, you fire them. But if there was a hands-down, no-doubt, slam-dunk fantastic guy available, then why not?
- MannyHey Mike,
Do you think AJ has a shot at winning 20 games this season or even the CY????
O.
MW: Yes and no.
- OwenDo you think with everyone throwing money at Teixeira, the Jays could sneak a Pat Burrell signing, who, is having a similar offensive season to Teixeira. More home runs, but less RBIs (possibly because he’s batting behind Ryan Howard).
MW: Maybe, but I don’t know if Burrell is willing to commit to being a full-time DH at 32.
- RichardMike you keep saying trading Wells, Rios, Overbay, Rolen now would be trading them at the low point of their value, but don’t you think it might be smart to trade them while they still have any value at all?
I’m guessing Wells, Overbay, Rolen couldn’t be moved now without eating a good portion of their contracts?
so Rios signed a 7 years/$69.835M contract, what do you think he would of made in his last two years of arbitration?
MW: I think he probably would HAVE been able to make at least $13 million in his last two arb years. Do you really think that Wells, Overbay and Rios are approaching the point where they will become valueless?
- MannyMike I love your show really, and I think you are great at what you do.
However your thinking that the Jays are fine with Overbay at first is quite funny. What makes you think this guy will be something else next year. What he’ll uncork the bottle and have Barbara Eden magically give him a stroke that actually works?
The guy was “O” for 5, with a pair of K’s. This is a huge huge hole for a team in the AL East. They have got to rid themselves of this guy his nonchalant attitude is upsetting.
Also your comment that “no one on the Jays has got out less than Lyle Overbay”! You might want to include in that Stat or have you conveniently overlooked that he leads the team in double plays, in my book that counts for 2 outs at a time!
MW: Add in an extra out for the DPs and Overbay’s obp is still .357, which would still lead the team even if you don’t count anyone else’s GIDPs or caught stealings as extra outs on their record. Again – no Blue Jay gets out less than Overbay, even though he was 0-for-5 last night.
- tonyMMHi Mike
enjoy your blog and Jays talk from here in Arkansas.
I am looking for more of you reaction to pitcher stats.
I agree W/L is not the way to eval a pitcher cause that is a team stat.
What do you think of using ERA, WHIP, K/BB, IP and pitches/out as the criteria.
Also what about a quality start is at least 6 innings and leaving with a lead
MW: Quality starts don’t mean anything to me. I like WHIP, BB/9, K/9, HR/9. Those are the big ones for me. Keep enjoying us down there in Arkansas!
- RichardHello Mike, just a question & then a comment. It was great to see the Jays come from benind in a game. It’s very rare this season so I’m at a high for now because I don’t know when it will happen again. Do you know where the Jays rank in the league in come from behind wins by any chance??…A stat I would like to know. It seems that the feeling is the opposite to the championship years where fans could feel that the Jays will come back late in games. It’s funny that you don’t hear those A.J Burnett bashers call in anymore & say he’s a .500 pitcher. He’s now a .625 & has a shot at 20 wins. Now they kind of want to sign him & come back next season. lol
Anyways, I listen to Jays talk almost every time & if I miss it, I come here to your blog where it’s posted, so thank you for that. Just also want to mention that I think Johnny Mac is overrated in terms of what most fans think of him in this city & you to a degree. Kind of like what fans overrate Reed Johnson. Johnny obviously is a magician defensivly but he is quite the opposite offensivly despite he got his average up to where it is right now. You will probably say he has to be given more playing time to see that offense but though out his career, there is no sign that he can be a good hitter. So, this Jays team, with their hitting, can not afford to give him that kind of chance. If he can hit around .270 with an OBP of .350, that would be amazing for him & the Jays & he would be a welcome edition to the starting lineup. But as good as he is defensivly, that bat of his can not be in this lineup. Maybe in a good hitting team like the Red Sox, Yankees or Cubs where the hitting cast is good enough to make up for him. The Jays just can’t afford to have a .200-ish batter starting in the lineup most nights even if he is a 10 time gold glover. Everybody gives him so much credit for his defensive abilities in this city, which is great but I think he should be critizied more than fans have for his offense. I keep on hearing fans call in & say they wish he was playing more often & sound like he is the world, well kind of. Him starting just can’t happen on this team. I think it’s great that the Jays bring him in for defensive purposes in the 8th or 9th when they are winning. I just want to keep an even keel on things sort to say & remind fans he is far from the player they give so much credit to. Anyways, Mike keep up the good work & lets hope the Jays can finally go on a long streak here to make things interesting down the stretch.
MW: There aren’t many people who believe that McDonald can be a quality hitter, they just think his defense makes it worth having him in there, given the alternatives. The Jays have come from behind to win about 20 times this year, but their record in games in which they’ve trailed after six innings is pretty awful.
- David F.Hey Mike,
Please stop praising the blue jays! Everytime they go on a mini run, you bring out all the positives in the world. Very next series it all goes south!..
MW: It’s all my fault.
- asadMike,
You mentioned Purcey being followed by Litsch. I thought Halladay was throwing Thursday afternoon in mo-town. Thats disappointing being the fact that I thought I had tickets to a great halladay vs Galaraga matchup.
And with September call-ups looming, who do you think will get a call to join the big-club.. Thigpen, Adams, Coats, maybe Cecil? What do you think?
MW: Halladay is being pushed back to Friday in Boston. At least Thigpen, Coats, Diaz, Parrish get calls, I think. Maybe Arencibia. I doubt we see Cecil, but you never know, and Adams certainly doesn’t deserve a call-up.
- Brandon FI got into an argument with an usher at the Rogers Centre a few weeks ago about AJ Burnett. He gave me that, “AJ Burnett is just a .500 pitcher” line. For the first time in his career, he is pitching like a “.500 pitcher” with a high ERA and WHIP but getting wins. Got to love the baseball gods.
Was looking at the playing record of Cito Gaston, who doesn’t seem to care for OBP or working the count, he had a career OBP of .298. To be fair, Gene Tenance was awesome at .388. I am glad he is the hitting coach.
Although hitting coaches MLB performance has nothing to do with teaching, I think it is fair to say that OBP may have something to do with hitting philosophy.
- Jim BHi Mike:
I thoroughly enjoyed watching this ballgame, especially seeing Johnny Mac working a long count to eventually pull a fastball into left field. I am really thrilled he seems to be contributing not just with the leather, but also with the lumber.
One observation you did not comment on, and it is starting to drive me nuts; Lyle Overbay repeatedly seems to watch the same pitch, same location (usually a fastball middle to inside) go for a called strike. Have you talked to Cito or Gene about what approach they are trying to get him to take, or this is an issue of major confidence deprivation?
MW: I haven’t talked to them specifically about Overbay, but the philosophy for everyone seems to be the same. Look for a pitch, and don’t deviate until you have to.
- BrendonMike, I agree that the bullpen will be tested these next 2 starts with Purcey and Litsch pitching.
2 questions about AAA:
1. Is Lance Carter that good that they would keep him on the roster when he has been on the DL all year? Or is there something about releasing an injured player?
2. Is the thought that Brian Wolfe will be a SP in the ML next season, or are they stretching him out to pitch in AAA and be an injury call up?
Thanks
MW: 1 – Injured players can’t be released. 2 – I think they just want to see what their options are with Wolfe.
- JasonGo Johnny Mac ! My favourite Jay (since Reed’s departure)is starting to contibute at the plate. I’m looking forward to seeing him break some Boston hearts this weekend.
I like that J-Mac is giving credit to CitoGino for helping him get a new plan at the plate.
- Ian CIt is so obvious how much overbay needs to hit second. It makes me crazy. My hope for next year:
2 Overbay
3 rios or wells
4 giambi or thome
5 wells or rios
6 lind
It’s not perfect but it’s good.
On another note, you and Alan have a great rapport. You seem to share a similar sense of humor. It adds a lot to the home games.
MW: I appreciate that, thanks. The one thing that would seem to work against Overbay hitting second is that he’s leading the team in GIDPs.
- jeremyHey Mike,
I want to be fair to start: Rios has 8 Hr & 50 RBI and 32 doubles, 30 steals, and a respectable 281/330/418.
And, yes, he was safe at the plate yesterday: But why did he not go hard into the catcher with a slide? And, the day or two before when he struck out and Inge dropped and lost the ball – why didn’t he run hard to first? He clearly would’ve been safe if he hustled from the get-go. So, the stats are not as terrible as we’d make them out to be this year, but I have a big problem with the attitude of Rios.
MW: You’re not alone.
- MichaelMike,
Guitar-shaped gas can – Very nice. One could also say the “Guitar Hero” was a Guitar Zero last night, but I like yours.
- Tom the InternAs far as the “B level” free agents. Who would you rather have as DH Ibanez, delgado or Burrell? I realize the Mets have an option for Delgado. is there a third candidate you’d rather have that’s not thome, giambi, manny, texeira?
MW: I’d rather have Burrell.
- jeremyMike – I saw this on your blog yesterday – it was an answer from you to a reader’s question. It was very interesting to see how JP has assembled one of the best rotations and bullpen in the league.
“Halladay, McGowan and League were Ash draft picks. As for the others: Burnett (JP free agent signing), Marcum (JP draft), Litsch (JP draft), Purcey (JP draft), Ryan (JP free agent), Downs (JP waiver claim), Carlson (JP minor-league FA), Frasor (JP trade for Ash draft pick Jayson Werth), Camp (JP minor-league FA), Richmond (JP free agent from Independant League), Janssen (JP draft), Tallet (JP trade for JP draft pick Bubbie Buzachero).”
We’ve blasted him for his inability to have a plan B for the DH and 3B positions. But, he’s done a fine job with the pitching. He’s responded to 4 key injuries (Accardo, Jansen, McGowan, Marcum) just fine. So, while we rightly criticize him for his decision making at 3B and DH, I think we ought to equally commend him for the job he’s done with the pitching.
Some may say he has Arnsberg to thank for most of that – well, there are a lot of GMs who have other brilliant people who work in the background to make them look good. Epstine has a brilliant staff of scouts (some of them have been profiled by Baseball Prospectus) that make him look like a genius.
JP should be back for 09. He deserves the criticism for the offense he has assembled, but doesn’t deserve to lose his job for it. I’m guessing there are 20 other GMs that could look at the staff he’s assembled and acknowledge the fine work he’s done.
- T from NYHey Mike,
My votes for tipdoodled!
We all know that Johnny Mac is no slugger at any stretch of the imagination, but I’m getting tired of hearing we need to find a new shortstop every year.. How many have we tried over the past few seasons to only try another shortstop the following year or even in the same year.. Is there no better way to spend money, other then through a rotating shortstop door?!!? Considering that Cito’s confidence in J. Mac seems to be making a difference in his approach and ultimately in the outcome, does it not make sense (since he’s under contract for one more year) to let Johnny play! EVERY DAY!! See if he can get to the 250 or 260 average and enjoy everything else he does extremely well (fielding, sacrifice bunting etc.). That would allow the Jays to sink more money into a real powerful DH.. Manny anyone?!?! And if Rolen turns out to be damaged goods how about moving Inglett at third? Am I on crack?
Cheers,
Joseph
MW: You’re not on crack. But if Inglett plays third they’re going to need a Manny-type to DH.
- JosephI remember watching Zumaya a couple of years ago when I caught a game at Comerica and he was regularly clocking 100 and 101 on the stadium radar. A 5 MPH drop is significant even if it is down to “only” 96.
Rios continues to perplex me. His non-slide yesterday was one thing as he was safe by a long shot. On Monday he swung and missed on strike three and the catcher mis-played the ball. He stuttered out of the batting box ran, slowed again and finally got thrown out by a step. Just run man!
Its all good in the end. Johnny Mac worked a couple of deep counts into a walk and a double and AJ showed some great composure getting out of a first and third none out jam and then getting bailed out by a terrible decision by Inge.
MW: As we have since seen, Zumaya has gone back to the DL.
- SteveI’m sure the umpire clearly saw that Rios was safe, it was so obvious, and he was standing right on top of him. It seems that if the throw beats the runner, he is out, no matter what. I hate that.
MW: Don’t hate that. If the umpire had clearly seen that Rios was safe, he’d have called him safe. By no means was it “so obvious” to the naked, non-replay eye.
- BrettMike:
Looking forward to next year, can the Jays really expect the pitching to be as good as it was this year? Will they be able to fill the gap that AJ leaves with someone comparable? I don’t think Purcey or Richmond are necessarily the answer and they’re not sure on the health of Jansen and I don’t know if he’s ever pitched a full season as a starter.
Secondly, is there not just as good a chance that the offense performs at or near the same level as they have this year without adding an impact player to the lineup?
I called you at the end of last season and said that improving by 10 games in the standings is a huge task and requires more than just a few tweaks. However, JP only made a few tweaks and it looks as though they’ll finish very close to where they did last season. I don’t consider the Rolen-Glaus deal major because they could only be expected to cancel each other out at best with Rolen improving the defense a bit. I also don’t think adding Stewart and Eckstein were impactful either from what they had at the time.
The change usually comes from bringing up an impact player from the farm system or adding a significant free agent that makes a major upgrade over what you currently have. Until I see something like that I see this team finishing around the .500 mark next season as well.
The Jays are always throwing around names of the players they have in the minors (Cecil, Snider, Arencibia, Jeroloman, Purcey, etc) saying they’re looking good for the future but don’t forget that every other tam in baseball has those types of players as well so it’s almost a wash. In fact if you believe what the scouts are saying, the Jays are worse off than most other teams in that department.
MW: I don’t believe that there’s just as good a chance that the offense performs at or near this same putrid level next year. Is Adam Lind not an impact player from the farm system?
- Peter B.Hey Mike,
It would appear that we finally have the bullpen lined up as most thought at the beginning of last year. League – 7th, Downs – 8th and Ryan in the 9th. Accardo and/or Janssen coming back strong next year would really put the pen in great shape.
Also, what was with Rios not sliding? I always hate to see a teammate give the look of exasperation like ‘My Captain’ did with Rios. Definitely frustrating I’m sure.
Good game though – nice to see them come back like that. Surprising how Zumaya has gone from golden boy to whipping boy. Man the fans were on him.
MW: Yeah, they were. Funny how that can happen. You’re right about that first point, I hadn’t seen anyone point that out yet. Though we thought going into Spring Training last year that League would have the 8th.
- CameronHey Mike I’ve never heard anyone else suggest the Jays getting Matt Holliday. I thought I heard that his contract was up this year. He’s a great slugger in his prime and would be a great fit. We could move Lind to 1st base.
MW: You should have been here two or three months ago, everyone was talking about it then. Holliday’s contract isn’t up until after next season.
- DeniseI’m one who agrees with you on your stance on the bloated importance that is given to a pitcher’s W-L record. Obviously there are many cases of very good pitchers over the years having good years/numbers, while not putting up great W-L records.
My question is – can you think of any instances where a pitcher was on the extreme opposite side of the spectrum and had a less than stellar season, but benefitted from great run support and put up somewhere in the 15-20 wins range? Any 20 game winners ever have a 4.50+ ERA or a plus 1.4 WHIP or something similar that come to mind?
MW: Storm Davis jumps immediately to mind. In 1989 with the World Series Champion Oakland A’s, he was 19-7 with an ERA of 4.36 (ERA+ of 85) and a WHIP of 1.506. He didn’t pitch in the World Series, though that had more to do with the earthquake than anything else. I’m sure there have been plenty more.
- ColeI really don’t have any question, just something that I thought of the other day:
It’s strange, but ever since I started watching the Jays in 1992, they’ve never had a young catcher. It was Borders back then and for a few more years, then Charlie O’Brien for a couple seasons, then Benito Santiago graced us with his presence for a season or two, next Darrin Fletcher for about three years, then the Gregg Zaun era began. Amazingly, it was Borders who was the youngest of these, and he was already 29 in 1992.
It seems strange that the Jays always have catchers on the wrong side of 30, and often the wrong side of 35. Well it guess it isn’t as we tend to sign free agents for that position. It’s been forever since the Jays have actually developed a catcher. We’ve seen a couple younger ones like Kevin Cash and Curtis Thigpen, but they haven’t worked out. It would be refreshing to have a starting catcher who’s 25 or 26 or something like that.
So I guess I do have a question: it seems Diaz has been passed by Jeroloman and Arencibia, correct? How do you see the catching situation developing? From what I hear Arencibia has more offensive skills and Jeroloman is more of a defensive catcher.
MW: I think that Arencibia and Jeroloman eventually become the Jays’ catching tandem. Jeroloman is an exceptional defensive catcher who gets on base, Arencibia is the power plant.
- Flaming MoeHey Mike,
Funny how the apple does not fall far from the tree. Hank seems to looking at things with rose-coloured glasses.
“I think it’s very simple, we’ve been devastated by injuries. No team I’ve ever seen in baseball has been decimated like this. It would kill any team,” Steinbrenner said. “Imagine the Red Sox without [Josh] Beckett and [Jon] Lester. Pitching is 70 percent of the game. Wang won 19 games two straight years. Chamberlain became the most dominating pitcher in baseball. You can’t lose two guys like that.”
“We’re going to win it next year,” he said. “If we need to add a top veteran pitcher, we’ll do that. We’ll do whatever we need to do. Next year we’ll be extremely dangerous.”
Quoted from espn.com…
Joba a good pitcher that may be great some day but to say that he is the most dominating pitcher in baseball is a bit over the top. Maybe Hank is forgetting that his team is getting older not younger so good luck to his predictions.
Oh and maybe he should look north of the border before he says no other team has been decimated by injuries like the Yanks.
BRUTAL!
MW: But injuries don’t matter, I thought. And yeah, he’s overraing Joba for sure, but everything is bigger and better in NYC.
- CameronIt is quite shocking how disappointing Lyle Overbay has become. Do you think it is the wrist or just rapid decline?
Thanks Mike.
MW: I think the wrist has something to do with his lack of power, and the fact that it may still be a factor stuns me, but I also think that he’s leading the team in OBP.
- jimmyFHey mike, hope you are still okay. I think aj will be a much better pitcher if he can throw another pitch. maybe a more effective change-up since he has that great arm, it just seems that he throws his fastball too often. What the hell is up with rios literally jogging when he reached half way to the plate, especailly with his speed. That run could have cost us, then all the calls would have been about how rios is a bad baseball player. I really think aj could become much more dominant if he gets taught or teachs himself another pitch. Like i said with his arm an effective change up will scare the lights out of the hitters, just like his curveball when it is clicking. have you heard anything about that? i hope someone has inquired about that idea. I also noticed that alex rios’s faliure is due to the mental part of the game, where the batter tries to figure what the pitcher is going to throw and wheter it is going to be a ball or a strike. i just have a feeling he guesss wrong too much and sometimes i feel he swings for the hell of swinging just becuase he had taken a strike or because he has not swung in a while? do u see that? last year he did not do this much. I hate more watching him fail then any other hitter because he fails in a different weird fashion in which the pitcher (who may be crap) begins to look like a cy young winner for a moment.
MW: I don’t think Rios ever swings just for the hell of it. That’s a ridiculous assertion.
- JaysFanMike,
I am willing to disagree on the injury issue because even if you think the red sox are not comparable there are the Yankees (Wang, Hughes,Kennedy, Posada, Chamberlain, Pavano, A-Rod, Matsui and Damon) or even the Dodgers (Schmidt, Penny, Saito, Furcal, Garciaparra, Jones, Pierre, LaRoche).
Now what I think we can agree on is that the the last 6 weeks of baseball for the Jays will really be the make or break phase of their season. If they are able to play 5 plus games over .500 the rest of the way they should at least appear to be in a tight race. The fear is that they go jekyll and hyde against the wrong teams (Beat up on the Yanks and O’s rather than the Soxs and Rays). But with VW back and Rolen out combine with AJ and Marcum looking sharpe I am looking forward to the chance to make a move because at the end of the day all you want to do is put yourself in a position to be successful.
MW: It’s interesting that you bring up the Yankees and Dodgers in comparison, because the Jays are only a couple of games behind the Yanks and have a better record than the Dodgers.
- JWMike buddy,
I have nothing against B.J. Ryan at all and love him as the Jays closer BUT I really don’t see him on this team next year. I hope I am wrong because I personally enjoy watching him pitch, but our deep bullpen of dominance makes him a very expendable asset and he should draw a ton of interest as closers are very hard to come by.
Does it make sense to you to trade him to fill one of our holes? Or do you think our bullpen will suffer in his absence?
MW: You never know how someone will do as a closer until you make him the closer, though the Jays got to see what Jeremy Accardo could do last season. If they get a nice return back, I have no problem with Ryan being traded. He’s definitely a big asset in a place where the Jays have a surplus.
- Andrew (Guelph)Yes Mike, Rios was safe and you are right that nevertheless the fact that Rios dipsy doodled home was inexcusable – how about a Reed Johnson spikes high dust swirling slide? Also Rios barely argued the play and he sat reclining in the dug out with a smile on his face like he was reposing in a beer league match. This is why fans respect and admire Reed – he puts his body on the line and makes the most of the somewhat limited MLB talent he has. Obviously it must be tough to play all out in a 162 game season but that is what is expected, that is what they are paid for. Every game matters, every play matters, regardless of the score or the standings. The Jays need a little Billy Martin managerial spirit or a little Derek Jeter leadership to call Rios out. Hopefully this has been happening behind the scenes but so far the play on the field has not been promising. Earlier in the week you pointed out how Rios failed to run out a pop fly. What’s with the lacksadaisical play? Is it simply Rios being Rios? No matter it has got to stop!
- DanielFor obvious reasons we didnt have a chance at Adam Dunn, but do you think Shef would be willing to come to T.O. and be the everyday DH no that he has been putt on waivers?
MW: He doesn’t like being the everyday DH in Detroit, why would it be different here? And the obvious reason that the Jays didn’t have a shot at Adam Dunn was the fact that Arizona claimed him on waivers before the A.L. had a chance. That’s what you meant, right?
- DarrylToday’s Ash’s corner vehemently illustrates the complete and utter ignorance and stupidity certain people display when they base a starting pitcher’s value mostly on his win total. The year was 1987 and Ashby’s Astros were in ever-windy Candlestick Park to face the Giants. The game pitted RH Nolan “Take That Robin (not Jesse ‘The Body’) Ventura” against RH Mike “Grab Some Pine Meat” Krukow. Ryan entered play that day having allowed a paltry 102 H in 136.1 IP, striking out 171, while walking 55 and allowing 10 HR. His ERA was a tidy 3.04 and opponent batters had a meek .205/.287/.307 line against him. Krukow’s numbers were “icky” going in. In 119.1 IP, he had allowed 141 H and struck out 77 while walking 31 and allowing 17 HR. His ERA was a bloated 5.35 and opponent batters were destroying him at a .301/.342/.485 clip. That opponent OPS is 233 points higher than Ryan’s. But, baseball is not and has never been fair. Krukow’s record at the time was 3-6 and based on those peripherals, he probably deserved worse, but that works out to a .333 winning percentage. Ryan’s record? Shame on the Astros of 1987, because it was 4-13, or a .235 winning percentage at the time. 4-13! Please let this be the last time Cy Young award discussions begin with “but so and so won the most games”. I know it won’t be, but I can dream dammit.
One more little tidbit about Ryan. Through his first 23 starts base stealers had ripped up the high leg-kicking flamethrower for 32 SB in 36 tries. Therefore, Alan Ashby shall not be held responsible for any stolen bases incurred in this game.
Manager Hal Lanier entrusted Alan Ashby with the cleanup spot that day as Ash was in the midst of a career year. As the first pitch was thrown he was hitting .310/.402/.466 with 10 HR and 48 RBI. Ash led off the second with a walk off Krukow, but Jose Cruz (papa) flied out to RF and Glenn Davis bounced into a 6-4-3 DP to end any chance of a rally. In the fourth it was Ashby’s turn to hit into a DP (1-6-3) and Cruz’ follow up ground out ensured the tally stayed at 1 and the deficit remained 3-1 Giants. A solo homerun by Craig Reynolds in the 5th and a two run shot by Billy Hatcher with nobody out in the sixth made it 4-3 ‘Stros, but a Bill Doran groundout and back to back Ks of Ashby and Cruz snuffed out the potential for more. A lead after 6 is always nice though. When Ash came to the plate in the ninth, it was 6-5 for the wrong side despite Hal Lanier’s best efforts. In the seventh Hal correctly pulled LH Juan Agosto and brought in RH Larry Andersen to face lefty destroyer supreme Kevin Mitchell with runners at 1st and 2nd and 2 out. Astro fans were probably burning up the talk show lines (if there were any back then) wanting Lanier’s head on a platter after Mitchell took Andersen out and gave the Giants a 6-5 lead… Three years later on August 30, 1990 the Astros dealt Andersen to Boston for the stretch run in return for some third baseman named Jeff Bagwell, who was blocked by Wade Boggs. They tell me that Bagwell kid had a pretty decent career as a first baseman in Houston… Filthy, nasty Scott Garrelts struck out Ashby to start the ninth, but the Astros got ‘er done anyway on back to back walks to Cruz and Davis and a pinch hit RBI single to ageless Davey Lopes, whose major league career didn’t start until the age of 27, and who stole 47 and 25 bases at the ages of 40 and 41 respectively. He also got on base like a demon, especially in the latter stages of his career, so he would have been Wilner-approved. The Giants unfortunately would eventually win this game 7-6 in 11, when a throwing error by shortstop Roland Americo (Buddy) Biancalana on a Kevin Mitchell groundball brought across the winning run for the walk off um error. Craig Lefferts got the win after blowing the save in the ninth and Rocky Childress was saddled with the loss.
Once again the pitching was terrible. I’m sure we’ll come across some well pitched games eventually as well as some wins, but hey that’s baseball. Will “The Thrill” Clark managed to steal second, but I’m quite confident in saying that given Ryan’s rep for holding runners, Ash wouldn’t have even gotten him with a perfect throw. That’s all folks,
- Tom the InternI know we’ve talked about the Bond issue many times before so I hope you won’t mind dealing with it again: is there anyone within the Jays organization who supports Bonds coming or is the whole front office united against him? Is it indeed a front office decision, or are they leaving it up to JP? I’ve heard Ricciardi on this topic a number of times and it’s unclear to me whether he himself would hire Bonds or not. Sometimes he has sounded adamantly against him, sometimes he’s sounded quite wistful.
MW: It’s well above the baseball ops department – on every team, it seems.
- reyesRios has now stolen 30 bases while having only 17 in 161 games last year. How do we explain the change? Is he just deciding to go more often or has the team focused on running more this year? I suspect it is not the latter, as the next best base stealer on the team has a whopping total of 7.
MW: I think he’s more confident with that part of his game. There was never a question that Rios had the speed to be a top-flight base thief.
- mikeGood game for the Jays that’s for sure. Good to see Wells back in there, swinging the bat. Had a question about one of the tigers, that being Brandon Inge. Since when has he been their catcher? About two years ago, if not later than that, I distinctly remember him playing at either third or first, forget which. Didn’t realize he had experience behind the plate? And if Cito wanted to get Zaun some playing time, and still ahve Barajas’ bat in the lineup, why not put Barajas at first, and DH Overbay? Rod has played first one game this year hasn’t he? Would you say he’s a good first baseman, or better behindd the plate?
MW: Barajas is better behind the plate than he is at first, easily. And I don’t think he’s a great defensive catcher (other than his throwing arm). Inge came up as a catcher, and moved out to third and the outfield when the Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez. He moved back behind the plate the Tigers traded Rodriguez to the Yankees last month.
- DanHi Mike reading your how different yours and Richard Griffins baseball opinions are I almost find it hard to believe you two don’t hate each other lol
I know what someone thinks should be done with baseball should have nothing to do with weather you two get along or not. It just seems like you two wouldn’t thats all.
MW: I find it hilarious that people believe that just because someone disagrees with them, they should dislike them. You’re watching too much U.S. political coverage.
- Duff manMike, I think if they want Rios to be the best he can be they should insist that he plays without his wallet in his back pocket. I think he was afraid if he slid into the plate he may have landed on his wallet and hurt himself. Funny thing is though, I thought he was out at third and safe at the plate. I am thinking about heading to Detroit on Friday to check out Comerica Park. I don’t have tickets though. I know they are drawing well, but these games aren’t sold out are they?
MW: No, I doubt they’re sold out. Beautiful ballpark. Are you seeing a major decrease in Rios’ effort and focus from last year to this year?
- dan from elmvaleI know this has been beaten to death, but why isn’t Overbay, who has a better OPB than Scutaro, batting second; and why isn’t Lind batting fifth and Stairs seventh for obvious reasons.
P.S. It’s interesting that Scutaro has appx. the same number of RBI per AB as Rios, Rolen and Overbay. I guess h’s pretty opportunistic.
MW: If he has the same number of RBI per AB, why would that make him opportunistic? None of those guys are hitting for real power this season. I addressed the Overbay hitting second thing above, as for Stairs above Lind, I’m not sure why that’s still going on.
- Steve from NJ3 comments: First,jays fans have been very classy as from what I can see the majority of the hundreds of fans who told you it was a mistake to keep Stewart over Johnson was a mistake, have not responded with “I told you so”
Second, is it possible that the Cito influence, like it has for Lind, might bring out the best in McDonald and League?
Finally, a few days ago u mentioned that the failure of Thomas, Rolen and Stewart were not the reason for the Jays woes … were u thinking that Zaun and Eckstein and J.P., should also be on that list?
MW: I was thinking that Rios and Overbay’s disappointing seasons and Wells’ and Hill’s injuries have a lot to do with it, too.
- Mikeok I saw the replay. Your right he was clearly safe. Are you sure Barajas “throwing his hands up in the air in seeming disbelief at the way Rios came into the plate” or kinda signalling to the umpire that he should be safe?
MW: It didn’t look like a safe call from The Captain to me.
- Shmuel YitzchokMike,
Unrelated, but please explain: if there is a trade deadline in MLB, which has passed, why are there still trades taking place?
MW: Asked and answered, several times, I think.
- BenHi Mike,
I’m relatively new to the game of baseball. I’ve noticed that the majority of the players come from the U.S. and Latin America with a few players coming from Canada, Japan etc. I was wondering why Europe has failed to produce few or any major league baseball players given the fact they seem to produce very good NBA and NHL players. Is it because the game has never caught on over there? Is part of the reason for the World Baseball Championship aimed at addressing the lack of popularity of baseball in certain parts of the world and by extension, hopefully seeing these nations develop players?
Thanks Mike and keep up the great work.
MW: Yes.
- JoeHey Mike great come back by the Jays last night. Those have been unfortunately few and far between this season. Great to hear about the return of Jesse Litsch. I read this morning in the paper that he was clocked at 95mph in the minors. And the reason given was that he’s throwing his fast ball more or less straight now as opposed to before when he had late break on it. I think he was throwing more a cut fast ball before. Anyway it’ll be interesting to see how effective he is now. Its kind of cool to watch a pitcher adjust and make changes as the hitters start to become too familiar with the pitchers stuff or in this case Litsch’s lack of controll of the late movement on his fastball. The evolution is fascinating. I hope it works out for Jesse.
This is not to take a shot at those fans who despise A.J. Burnett and always describe him as a “.500 pitcher, end of story”. I just can’t help but wonder what is making A.J. a winner this year as opposed to other seasons in the past. I know you (Mike) have pointed out recently that A.J. tends to have his best seasons at the end of a contract and this season qualifies as such due to the fact that he will most certainly exercise his option and opt out. And more importantly as you’ve suggested he has had his most healthy seasons at the end of a contract. However I want to get back to the whole .500 thing. What happened this year?? Did A.J. finally figure out how to win or were there circumstances beyond his controll that enabled him to compile thus far 15 wins and perhaps a shot at 20. If you look closely at the numbers this year as you (Mike) often advocate to get a better picture of how a pitcher is actually performing you’ll find that in terms of ERA, WHIP, and OBA A.J. is having his worse season (outside of 2003′s injury shortened season) and yet he has a winning percentage of .625. It certainly has been a tale of two different seasons for A.J.. Before the all-star break things were up and down. Especially the beginning part of the year. But since just before the all-star break till now he has been on some kind of a run. Since the July 9th game against Baltimore where he gave up 7ER in 5.1IP (oh ya he won that one hehe) A.J. is 6 and 1. 7 and 1 if you count the game in Baltimore. Theres some great pitching in there and some not so great pitching but he’s managing to get the wins. In fact his last 3 starts in August have been just ok but he’s 3 and 0. Pretty funny if you ask me. Again I guess he’s finally figured out how to win now. Hmmmmm.
Wins are most certainly not the definitive stat to reference (not in isolation from all the other and more useful tools, measurements, in trying to illustrate a pitchers performance throughout a season or career for that matter) when trying to ascertain a pitchers performance. I think A.J.’s career is an excellent example of the fallacy of placing undue emphasis on a pitchers record and than seeing how it subsequently taints that pitchers reputation by creating these labels such as .500 pitcher.
Take care Mike.
MW: Thanks, Troy. I assume when you say that you think Burnett may have finally “learned how to win” your tongue was planted firmly your cheek.
- TroyHi Mike,
Long time listener/reader, first time writer…
I’d first like to mention that I was very impressed last night with that Gary Sheffield fellow …I think he’s got a bright future in the bigs.
So, I’m one of those nerds that keeps score during the ballgame for my own amusement (even when I’m watching the game at home on the couch – don’t laugh). I’m kinda new to it, and I’m learning on the fly.
My question is: why is an at-bat recorded when a batter reaches base on an error? It seems odd to me that a batter’s average should be negatively affected by the poor play of the defense, but when a pitcher hits a batter it’s not considered an at-bat.
Feel free to tell me to do my own research, but I am looking forward to your insightful and witty response. No pressure.
MW: Glad that you finally decided to come out of the closet. I don’t know too many people who score games at home, but it’s nothing about which you should be ashamed. An at-bat is recorded when a hitter reaches on an error because had the error not been committed, he would have been out. When a batter is hit by a pitch, presumably, there’s nothing he could have done about it, so why should he be charged with a time at-bat?
- JasonHi Mike.
Regarding your reply to my post (#54) in your ‘Marcum Down for Another Win’ blog entry:
“MW: Again, check out Terry Ryan’s career record.”
With all due respect, I think your counter-argument is rather weak.
When evaluating a GM’s performance, I believe one should objectively look at what is a fair amount of time for a given GM to produce a winner, not search for one exception and say that should be the standard. It would be akin to one person saying “You know, I don’t think buying a lottery ticket is a good idea given the odds are too long that it will pay off.” and the other person countering by saying “Well, go talk to Sam, he’s a friend of my cousin – he won $100,000 last year in a lottery, so it must be a good idea.”
I suspect that in the history of MLB General Managers, the vast majority of those who produced a number of years straight of poor-to-mediocre results with a given team did not go on to have great success with that club. So for you to say “a-ha, I have found an exception to this, so my argument automatically trumps yours or at least should be given equal weight” is highly suspect. What does the bulk of the evidence say re. a GM who puts together a string of less-than-winning seasons? What percentage of them go on to be great GMs with those clubs? I suspect the number is quite low.
Could JP be another Terry Ryan? It’s possible, but I would say it’s unlikely.
MW: That’s not unfair, but Ryan is the first example that popped into my head. I’m sure there are countless more.
- jamesHey Mike,
There’s a report that Ibanez has been claimed off waivers. You don’t think the Jays would put in a claim at this point in the season??
MW: Why not? They wanted him two weeks ago.
- JeffMike,
Great as always.
However, I feel the it must be getting late in the season and the sheer number of blogs you’ve written thus far is causing you to run out of quote material….quoting Ken Huckaby??? Ha!
MW: I loved Ken Huckaby.
- Craigmike, keep waiting for your apology. I’m still waiting for you to admit you were wrong on barajas. when the signing occurred you said it he was a “horrible hitter” and now you have egg all over your face. just admit you were wrong and I’ll stop making fun of you.
MW: Again, I look forward to your apology.
- chubbyOk Mike maybe it was stupid but Im tired of hearing people saying how much they love these guy.. Yes he is great for the bench but thats it.. His no starter in this league.. We have fans that want Overbay gone but want J Mac to start cause his great D.. Im surprised no comment on the Stairs thing.. I thought you would have said something
MW: Why? Because you wrote it in order to get a reaction?
- EddieMike,
I was curious where the Jays pitching staff ranked, so I went on mlb.com and I saw that going into Wednesday’s game, the Jays were tied with the Dodgers for the best staff in baseball (3.66 team ERA). However, the Dodgers are in the NL and play in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium, so the Jays have far and away the best staff. It is just such an embarrassment that this team is hovering around .500 with this staff. It is just such a waste.
Somebody call Mr. Peabody to go back in time and get the 2000 hitters. That would be quite a team.
- TomHi Mike,
should the Jays instruct Inglett to get some work in at 3rd base in the offseason? Should Rolen not really recover, would Inglett be a better option than Scutaro? Hopefully Hill will be back by then.
And just a comment, I believe the Jays should go strong after a DH, but perhaps not so much after a 1st baseman. I think moving Lind there eventually with Snider in the outfield is the best chance in a couple of years.
Thanks!
MW: Inglett is a pretty solid third baseman. I would think that if Rolen is still hurting next year, he and Scutaro would be a fine replacement platoon assuming Hill is back.
- RoryI must say Prokopek made some interesting points..This Jays team is marginally better then the Jays of 2001..Can you really say that the 08′ Jays are that much better? In 2001 The Jays hit 195 homeruns..This year the Jays have hit a massive 81 homeruns good for dead last in in the American League..Wells, Halladay and Carpenter were all under 26 at the time so we could argue that some of the young talent was already on the roster in 2001..
We could argue that the reason the Jays’ farm system is ranked dead last in MLB is because most of the young talent is already on the 2008 roster but if you compare that statement to the 2001 edition of the Jays you could say the same thing and yet they still had good talent in the minors and ranked 17th..
..The average age of the 2001 Jays was 28.1 this years Jays are 31.5 so we are an older team 7 seasons later and still hanging around .500..
However, in 2001 Delgado was making over 13 million on his way to 3 more years at almost 20 million a season..Raul Mondesi was making more then 11 mil a season on his way to a few more years at more then 11 million..So there were some bloated contract left for Riccardi but he wasn’t left with a team void of talent..
Gord Ash was an absolute mess as a Gm and we should be thankful he is gone..But J.P hasn’t been a whole lot better even though we think his team should be better..
So I have to ask..What is your reasoning? Why do you think this team is much better then the team in 2001?
MW: The lack of bloated, ugly contracts is a big thing, so is the fact that they have the best pitching in the league right now. Also big for me is that the core of the team is locked up reasonably for the next couple of years. Oh, and the fact that there are some very good players on their way up.
- gumpThis Rios “head in the game” crap is getting out of control. Again tonight … with 2 out in the top of 7 after the rain delay, Vernon Wells hits a fly ball to centre field on what appeared to be a hit and run …. Rios got within a few feet of 2nd and turned around and started running back to first.
One of the reason I love baseball so much is because it is such a thinking game. We only see the obvious things from Rios like baserunning errors or standing like an idiot in the outfield like you just caught the third out while the runners are tagging but what about the things that aren’t so obvious. Things such as recognizing pitching patterns to sit on a certain pitch and location early in counts, recognizing tells from a pitcher or even defensive positioning.
I’m not falling for this head in the game crap anymore. I think Alex Rios is quite simply and inferior intellect, what some people would refer to as dumb or stupid. Everybody works with someone like this … what makes you don’t think they exist in baseball? The guy has an amazing natural ability and could quite possibly be one of the best players in baseball if he had even an average intelligence.
MW: I have a hard time with someone taking shots at the intelligence level of someone they’ve never met. There are dumb guys in every walk of life, it’s true, and some of them are phenomenal athletes. You have no basis to determine Rios’ level of intelligence beyond your opinion of how he plays baseball.
- mattWhen Alex first came onto the scene as a young kid, I saw some real weird things that I put off as jitters. By the end of the season he seemed to straighten that out. Last year I thought he was maturing and noticed his lack of focus or hustle very seldom. This year, his overall numbers are not all that bad except for power and I guess average. If he was hustling more and not having the brain cramps I think he would be getting a pass on the power and average. I was wondering when you found time to answer these questions. I didn’t know you did it during the game. Makes sense. What a weird decision for MacDonald trying to go to 2nd tonight. I noticed (once or twice) you correcting people for saying “back catcher”. I say it myself. All the older ball fans like my Dad use the term. I wonder if it is a Fastball term or where else it may have come from. Any ideas Mike?
MW: I wonder if “backcatcher” isn’t just a Canadian term, kind of like “Decker” for a catcher’s mitt.
- dan from elmvaleRef. Post 72
Hey Mike just wanted to say ooops I missed a word in the first paragraph. I meant to say; I think he was throwing more of a cut fastball before(missed the word of). Also worse should have been worst. My apologies.
Oh ya my tongue was planted firmly in cheek with the A.J. “learning how to win thing”
Take care.
- TroyRios, you suck!
- Vito From HamiltonWhy did Frasor not get a hold for this two perfect innings tonight against Detroit?
How much did Purcey’s ERA drop from his 6 scoreless innings?
and if it’s possible, is there a record for consecutive number of series sweeps (swept or being swept) that a team has participated in?
MW: Frasor didn’t get a hold because although he came into the game in a save situation, he didn’t leave with the save situation intact (though it was through no fault of his own), and Purcey’s ERA went from 7.40 to 5.93.
- Sam McLeanHi Mike,
From comment #14 I thought about ROlen playing with the bad shouilder so I changed my mind about most disapoiting player. That is now Shannon Stewart. I think that is fair enough.
On comment 6 Eddie mentioned Johnny Mac only hitting .200 for the last time is ridiculous! John is a great player and clearly Eddie has no appreciation for defense and mind boggling plays that are so unbelievable. He hit .251 last year which is not bad at all and his defense added to his contribution by saving runs.
Jays just won a thriller 4-3 and it should ‘ve been 4-1 and maybe 4-2 if Rios doens’t drop that flyball. I really don’t like Rios’ attitude and effort and passion. He is the Bluejays version of Andrea Bargnani. All the talent and h doesn’t use iy right. Well, thanks for these blogs Mike and your entertaining pre/ pre-pre/postgame shows.
- WarrenGosh, Alex Rios! He hits, he runs, he fields! He single-handedly won the game for us!!
Wait! What?
I hope Downs isn’t too badly hurt. It looked nasty. League pitched well again. And watching Downs go down reminds me that now may not be the time to deal Brandon. We may need all the arms we can get. Because good pitching can beat good hitting, even though it hasn’t seemed that way for most of this season.
Not much offense, but always nice to see a slam.
Now that everyone’s on waivers, is there anyone out there–anyone!!–we can go after as a dh?
MW: Raul Ibanez?
- reyesPS Great pitching performance by Purcey! I know it’s only one game, so I’m not reading too much into it. But I wanted to give the kid kudos. He pitched a blinder!
- reyesHi Mike.. Dont know how you find the time to answer all our questions .. You must be a wizard with your typeing.. I’m a 2 index finger guy.. Anyway Mike I was wondering when a team decides to build a new ball-park ,is there a criteria for dimensions down the foul lines.. What if ownership wanted to build a really small ball-park like in Japan and take a chance that they are playing 81 games at there park and see where the chips fall.. Is there actually some kind of commitee that looks into this? And on the same note we all know that the GREEN MONSTER gives and takes home-runs.. Has there been any stats freak that has figured this out .. I’m 58 to 42 on the hitters side ,, Thanks Mike..
MW: Many stats freaks have figured out what Fenway Park’s dimensions to do hitters, try googling “ballpark effects” or some such. I don’t believe that there are any required dimensions for new ballparks, so long as they’re not ridiculous.
- FLIPPERMike, re your response to #86 needs further clarification.
Coming into the game with a 4-run lead is not a “normal” save situation — however, because there were three innings left, which Frasor could have finished, it could have been a save, but only for him.
Therefore, leaving with the 4-0 lead intact, but having pitched only two of the remaining three innings, he does not receive either a save or a hold.
I realize you know that, but am not sure the original poster (or others) do, so thought I’d elaborate.
MW: Far be it from me to deny you your right to clarify if you feel it necessary. I would dispute your contention that coming into the game with a four-run lead isn’t a “normal” save situation. Coming in with a four-run lead with three or more innings to go is a normal save situation, as is coming in with two on in the 9th inning with a four-run lead.
- Norm